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Don Walcott

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Everything posted by Don Walcott

  1. This has become a must read for me after every game. The best game recaps I've ever seen.
  2. Last night it was bombs. Tonight, singles and walks. It's good to see a bunch of mostly young hitters taking what the other team is giving them. It's just as good to see a mostly young bullpen getting locked in to do the job.
  3. I'm excited. We're still in it. The other teams vying for a wildcard spot all have their problems as well. And we're scoring runs without Sano, We could be a very tough team to beat if Sano starts hitting, and if the rest of the team keeps it up. I am very concerned about the closer situation. I like Belisle, but I don't see any way he can continue closing games.
  4. Bad check swing call, bad call at the plate, and Robbie channels the anger. Very nice.
  5. Looked safe to me. Would be 3-0, and the lineup turned over.
  6. I think context matters for all aspects of the game. We now measure this for leverage situations or WPA for pitching and hitting. The point is the same applies to fielding. If the game is tied in the 9th and Buxton crashes into the fence to make the play, it's worth it for him to make that play. If we're winning by 10 in the 9th, I'd rather Buxton not crash into the fence to make the play. Obviously, errors happen. I don't think players consciously try to commit errors, although sometimes a game situation may make them more prone to do so. However, some errors are simply more costly than others, and there should be some acknowledgment of this fact. It doesn't make Grossman any better in the field that we all know he is, but that error had no effect on the outcome of the game, and given the score, there was little chance of it affecting the game. However, in a purely statistical way, it's treated exactly like Polanco's error, which was much more costly.
  7. You said pitching to the score was disproved by years of analysis. That was the only sentence I was addressing in my post, as indicated in the first sentence of my post.
  8. I disagree with the last statement. There was one analysis by Joe Sheehan a very long time ago that I believe was actually a bit lazy and anything but definitive. He set up his own definition of "pitching to the score," tailored to his premises regarding what statistics should show, used a small sample size, and came to his predetermined outcome as a result. For many years, people have been repeating that this study definitively proved that Jack Morris defenders are idiots. There's been nothing new contributed to the topic. However, if you repeat something enough as if it's true, especially if you do so as someone who's smarter than "old school" fans, it eventually becomes true. The fact is that teams actually do pitch and field to the score. For example, bringing in the infield when the score is close, or playing at double play depth when the score is not close. In one situation, the team is willing to concede a run to get an out (or two). In the other situation, the team is trying its best to prevent a run. This does not mean that over a long time and large sample size that one strategy yields more runs than the other. However, the immediate concern of the team is not statistics, but winning the game. And the analysis should be what strategy wins the games, not what yields less runs over the long term. Although it is less common today, someone like Ervin Santana shows that some pitchers are capable of pitching to complete games or at least going deep in games. That means not wasting pitches, pitching to the defense, and not worrying about strikeout totals, with the goal of saving the bullpen and shaking hands at the end of the game. It is also not proven whether pitchers who do this give up more or less runs over a long time and large sample size. However, in the context of a season, I believe it is very valuable for teams to have a Santana or Jack Morris, who goes deep into games. I would say that they are not so much "pitching to the score" as "pitching for a complete game win." However, the score can effect how much effort they have to put into run prevention as opposed to just getting enough outs to finish the game. The ultimate historical example of this, in my opinion, was in 1991, in mid-August, the Twins were 1.5 up on the Oakland A's dynasty. We won a 12-inning game 1 of the series, with both teams emptying out their bullpens. The next day, Morris gave up 4 runs and went 9 innings, saving our bullpen, which was needed to win the third game of the series the next day. Morris doesn't have a good ERA or even a quality start in the game, but it was probably the most important start of the season for the Twins, who never lost that lead in the division and buried our main competition in that series. As far as I know, there's no statistical analysis on how valuable a pitcher is who saves a bullpen by going deep into games. Maybe that's something Joe Sheehan can disprove with some "thorough" analysis. And then we can all refer to it and repeat the conclusion until it's true.
  9. Just don't let it happen again. We are now officially entitled to these excellent recaps, with all of the bells and whistles.
  10. Of course, Grossman could be "fielding to the score", which was proven to be a thing a long time ago. . . .
  11. I think he's saying that it wasn't a costly error because it didn't give the other team an extra out nor allow a run. And with the score what it was, it wasn't likely to lose us the game either. I don't think anyone's accused Grossman of being lazy, just not very good in left field. Sometimes it hurts us more than others. Today, it didn't hurt us much.
  12. I hope Molitor's ready to challenge some plays tonight. Since, in my experience, an Aaron Judge usually gets overturned on appeal.
  13. I hate George Springer almost as much as I hate Jose Ramirez.
  14. Me, too. Even though I'm up against him today.
  15. That fastball he threw to Dozier is still traveling in his mind.
  16. Like Tori's first good announcing insight that Granite is one of the piranhas.
  17. Okay. I'm okay with queasiness. Like going every time I've gone to court for the past 20 years. . . . Living the dream . . . .
  18. The peer pressure!! Ahhh!! It's suffocating!!
  19. I don't like Buxton hitting behind Castro, except for the distinct possibility that he'll pass him on the bases one of these games.
  20. One thing I am thankful for is that we're not all waiting on that shiny new pitcher to start a game while Dozier clobbers us for the Dodgers (probably batting 5th).
  21. Looks like Falvine picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue . . . .
  22. I prefer bagels. But let's save some doughnuts for big Bart!
  23. Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, David Price (if he opts out), Johnny Cueto (if he opts out), Michael Pineda, Chris Tillman, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb. Lance Lynn. Rather than trade away assets in the organization, I'd like to see the owners splash some cash to accumulate assets.
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