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Turd Furgeson

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Everything posted by Turd Furgeson

  1. Turd Furgeson
    If he hits this well in September I think he should get some votes, his WAR is already better than Delmon Young's best season when he finished 10th in votes, but of course I don't expect most voters to look at WAR at all. If he hits this well in September and Correa and Lindor continue to play as well as they have been then I think there is a real argument for Sano over them for RoY too. I didn't think so previously but this recent surge is potentially giving him a bit of an edge, unless you think the extra games that Lindor and Correa played give them a decided advantage.
  2. Turd Furgeson
    The first pitch wasn't a strike. The second pitch was a very good slider that hit the corner of the zone at the very end. The third pitch was iffy, he probably should have fouled it off though.
  3. Turd Furgeson
    This umpire is absolutely terrible.
  4. Turd Furgeson
    Sure, it's a bit of a gamble but the risk is not so great. Sano would have to be an abject failure defensively to have less value than Plouffe at third base next year, or Plouffe would have to randomly breakout and have a huge season. I don't think either of those two things are that likely. Sano has looked pretty good defensively in the few games he's played, and from various scouting reports I've read over the years about his defense, people do think he could stick at third for several years. So really the main thing you are relying on is someone to have more value with their bat than Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is a solidly league average hitter with a 102.75 wRC+ over the last four seasons. Arcia had a 109 wRC+ in 2014, so even with him you have a pretty good chance he can be more valuable offensively than Plouffe. I think any one of these guys have a decent chance to at least be league average hitters. Plus we're talking about selling high on Plouffe and getting an asset back for him because I doubt we plan on signing him again in two years.
  5. Turd Furgeson
    I could see Kepler being in competition for one of the outfield spots too. We'll have to see how Buxton, Rosario and Hicks do next year.
  6. Turd Furgeson
    Sano, keeping his line drive rate high.
  7. Turd Furgeson
    Yeah, and Hicks was worse still. He had a .356 OPS through 20 games. He then improved a lot the rest of the year, but was still behind and remember, Hicks was 23 and Buxton is 21. Buxton may need more development and that's fine he missed almost a year of development and he's young.
  8. Turd Furgeson
    Plouffe has trade value and Sano needs to play at third every day. Trade Plouffe and if we can get a C back that'd be great, but I don't think we need to be overly picky about that, just get a good return. Sano is not a great defender but he's good enough and we may be able to squeeze some more offense in this lineup with Sano playing a position and someone else playing DH.
  9. Turd Furgeson
    That's your choice, you can vote if you want to but I won't be. I think Thrylos made an excellent point, Kepler was the much more deserving player and it's not like it's close either. You literally have to ignore the triple slash line to nominate ABW for his season over Kepler's. I'm happy that ABW had a good year, and he's been on my prospect radar for a couple years but Kepler was better and he's not on the ballot so I won't be voting.
  10. Turd Furgeson
    Yes, he was supposed to be, and it's far from decided yet that he won't be. That said, he needs to do something in his at bats soon if he wants to stay up for much longer. Keep in mind he's 21 years old and missed most of last year in the minors due to injuries. He hit very well in 2013 and hit well in AA and AAA this year. I don't really get what's happening to him now it seems like he has no clue what is being thrown.
  11. Turd Furgeson
    Buxton is in way over his head. He can't seem to recognize pitches at all.
  12. Turd Furgeson
    That drop in his ISO seems extreme, but I suppose it could be that severe. That's also operating under the assumption that his strike out rate remains the same which, hopefully will not be the case. He was more of a 25-26% K% guy in the minors vs the 35.9% he has in the majors.
  13. Turd Furgeson
    I mean, there doesn't seem to be any question that Kepler has been the better player this year. Adam Brett Walker has an .817 OPS which is nice in AA but compared to Max Kepler's .968 OPS in AA? They aren't even in the same stratosphere. I also am perfectly comfortable with thinking that Kepler provided a lot more defensive value too. Also I'd think Max Kepler succeeding seems to be the far bigger story here. The Twins took a flier on a kid from Germany and it turns out he may have some legit baseball skills. How many German baseball players are there in the MLB? I like Adam Brett Walker, not sure if he'll make it in the big leagues but I'm a Twins fan, I want him to succeed. This is just a case where antiquated statistical evaluations rate Walker higher so Kepler is not getting the recognition he deserves.
  14. Turd Furgeson
    No Correa or Sano? That's disappointing.
  15. Turd Furgeson
    I think he has a good chance to be a better version of Giancarlo Stanton.
  16. Turd Furgeson
    Sano's first hit in yesterday's game gave me hope for the type of thing he can do. He was working a deep count, can't remember exactly what it was but he definitely took a bit something off of his swing to make contact while still drilling a line drive between the left infield gap for a single. He definitely takes some deep cuts when he swings but he can also change his swing a bit when he just needs to make solid contact. His strike out rate will need to come down, and I believe that it will. In the minors he was a 25% K rate guy, he's been around 35% in the majors, I'm sure with experience that will go down. Here's the deal with Miguel though, he has the highest hard hit ball percentage in baseball and he has a high line drive rate. Assuming he continues to do well in those two categories he's always going to have a high BABIP because its the best way to get base hits, not to mention that he can hit the ball to all fields. The 80 power tool is very real for Sano but his advanced approach, plate discipline and pitch recognition blow me away, this is a very smart hitter with a ton of natural talent. He's been hitting first pitch home runs lately, he can hit cutters, sliders, change-ups, and fastballs for home runs. His contact rates are good, not elite but the good thing is he generally knows which pitches he can handle.
  17. Turd Furgeson
    It's really not his hit tool. Buxton has a quick bat, he's hit major league pitching, not very well but he can certainly catch up to major league pitching and there's no doubt he's seen some high velocity in the minors as well. I think its probably some combination of a failure to recognize pitches and confidence. Obviously the key to being successful as a hitter in the major leagues is making adjustments and he's getting his lumps in early so he's going to have to adjust.
  18. Turd Furgeson
    I didn't see his first at bat but the other three all started with 0-2 counts. They attacked him right away and he didn't swing and he just kinda swung helplessly trying to make contact at that point. I'm a bit worried about his pitch recognition honestly. Hitters can become more disciplined I suppose but pitch recognition seems to me to be a inherent skill that you have or you don't. He had some very good walk rates at different points in the minors, I didn't get to see those at bats but it made you think he really had a good approach, so I don't really get what's happening now.
  19. Turd Furgeson
    I guess we did have some good luck with our blooper bunts landing for hits and what not, we probably deserve a missed home run off of a catwalk. LOL
  20. Turd Furgeson
    Looking at Hicks monthly splits I'm starting to lose confidence in his resurgence. He had a 1.000 OPS in July but a .600 OPS in August and of course still the extreme lefty/righty splits. I do think it will be Hicks and Kepler that end up fighting for one of the corner outfield spots next year if Kepler can keep improving off of this great season he's having.
  21. Turd Furgeson
    Buxton is about the only exception I can see for bunting because he has 80 speed. The Dozier bunt was completely nonsensical.
  22. Turd Furgeson
    Yeah, people compare him to Stanton and if he had Stanton's offense at third base that would be remarkable but just looking at I think he might be capable of a bit more. I believe his hard hit rate only trails Stanton (by 1%) in all of baseball this year and Stanton has a higher hard contact rate than he normally has in his career. Sano hits fewer grounders and more line drives than Stanton does too and has a lot better discipline on pitches outside the zone. This is of course on a small sample size but if he keeps this up he has a good chance to be better.
  23. Turd Furgeson
    Yeah, really about the only thing you can complain about is a bit of a lack of discipline at the plate. He can really hit and he plays good defense.
  24. Turd Furgeson
    It is pretty annoying. People have such a strange attachment to these stats even when you explain the flaws of them, some people just don't care, they want to use those traditional stats because they are the stats they've always used, it's more comfortable or something. A lot of the color commentators are former players right? From my experience listening to them, most of them are pretty dismissive of advanced analytics.
  25. Turd Furgeson
    700 is an impossible number to think about right now. Griffey was supposed to break the record, but injuries happened, fell well short of 700. A-Rod was looking like he was going to break the home run record a few years ago but injuries and steroid suspensions happened. Pujols was jacking 40+ home runs a year for awhile but there's no chance he'll reach 700. MIguel Cabrera is on a good pace but he's 32 and still about 100 a way from 500 home runs, 700 doesn't seem possible. Sano might be able to hit 600 but he's going to have to have a very long career.
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