Harrison Greeley III
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Everything posted by Harrison Greeley III
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I read this already. Speier doesn't seem to be aware that the Twins publicly declared they intended to use him as a reliever. If you combine that with the NL evaluator saying he's a reliever, that should give you pause that there's a big uncertainty for his future. If you choose to believe the AL evaluator mentioned, shrug. That should have been part of the Red Sox due diligence prior to the agreement. If you second guess your due diligence prior, you shouldn't make it the problem of the other parties involved to make it up to you later. That goes for this case and basically any case in life. Bloom blew it and clinging to the medicals was a garbage tactic. You just made me read this article a second time. And I did a CTRL+F search to be sure Speier missed this crucial piece of the puzzle (that the Twins publicly revealed their plans for Graterol as a reliever) and he did miss it in this piece. Can I go now? Go ahead and take the last word. Just don't make me do anything else, please. -
Yes, of course I was. The tone was so combative and intent on mischaracterizing what I was saying (particularly that I somehow think Bloom is a naive idiot) that that was all I had the energy for as a response. We disagree on this. You've made your point. I just don't find it very convincing. I would assume vice versa about my point. Trueblood made this post because there was something wrong with the way the Red Sox conducted themselves in the negotiations. It had consequences for other parties and especially Graterol. I agree. That's about all I need to add here.
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I assumed when I said they 'used bad faith tactics to save face' it was implied that they didn't actually succeed. But if you needed me to specify: they didn't succeed. Bloom is not a naive idiot. I think smart people can easily have a bad day or a bad sequence. Smart people can have a poor read on a situation sometimes. I think he's a guy new at his job and he second guessed what he just did. It happens. Another example is Theo Epstein admitting he shouldn't have come to Chicago and immediately trade DJ LeMahieu. In fact, I think Bloom is the opposite of an idiot. He just plotted a course as to how to get out of or extract more value out of a poorly received trade after the deal is made. Whether or not he's an idiot is not my concern. The concern that he set a bad precedent. Regardless of whether or not you believe he acted in bad faith, they just proved it can work if you do.
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This and the fact that Graterol passed the physical no problem. It's such a hard sell to find any other narrative plausible. The Red Sox had a poor scouting report on Graterol, had buyer's remorse, and used bad faith tactics to save face. Any other narrative really seems like an over-accommodating stretch. This isn't a homer bias. It's not just the Twins fanbase that thinks this. MLBPA, Scott Boras, MLB, the Dodgers fanbase,the Red Sox fanbase, and other parties involved alluded to if not directly expressed this as their read on the situation. The 'adult in the room saying there's more to this story you don't know...' take did not age well as this story developed.
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Twins Trade Suggests More Pieces to Move
Harrison Greeley III replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bad research prior to the agreement and shady tactics to save face after the agreement. Why would any team want to deal with this new Boston front office in the next 2-3 years? Maeda would be great, but if you've ever bought a house you know it's important to always be willing to walk away when there's something off about the parties involved. -
That's interesting about Maeda's pitch mixes against lefties and righties. I know the Twins are big into having players help and coach each other. And I know they've been working on Berrios using a more change-up heavy mix against lefties and more curveballs against righties. I'm wondering if part of the thought process of bringing in Maeda is to create and build a co-worker relationship with Berrios.
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Not impossible, but way less likely. The Astros were right there with the Twins chasing home runs records last year. But unlike the Twins, Yankees, and Dodgers the Astros were unnaturally good at avoiding a strikeout rate that goes along with that level of power. The Twins were good at avoiding strikeouts too, but that was largely based on an aggressive team-wide strategy of minimizing plate appearances with 2-strike counts. They were 20th in BB%. The Astros led the league with the highest BB% AND the lowest K% on offense while hitting 288 HR in 2019. That's....odd. If they Twins were stealing signs, they were definitely worse at it than the Astros.
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I want Arraez to hit 5th against RHP. If there are runners on with 2 outs, he's the guy I want up to get the run(s) in. He had 63 plate appearances with RISP. He hit .327 and he struck out only 6 times. Also, the pitcher is likely working under duress in that situation and he takes great at-bats to make a pitcher work.
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If he loses the feel for the splitter, oh well. $7 million wasted and a handful of bad starts. But if he still has the splitter he's probably a 4 WAR pitcher this year and this turns out to be a jackpot signing. I understand the lack of a huge signing or trade is frustrating, but this isn't the place to direct that frustration. This was a good, well-calculated signing.
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There have been books written on how good front offices need to find value where the market isn't seeing it. One was about Billy Beane, the guy who traded for Bailey last summer. Fangraphs. I'm not going to make any prediction that he will once again be the 36th best starting pitcher or better. I can't speculate on the future. I'm just saying smarter people and systems than me said he was #36 last year. And between his pitch values, and numbers re: K/BB/HR allowed it's not hard to follow why. At $7m for a one year deal, that's really great.
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Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison. Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.
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I believe a key stat that front offices are looking at right now that I'm not seeing baseball writers adequately discuss is HR/9 or some advanced, proprietary version of that data. The ball is juiced and you're better off assuming it will continue to be juiced. Lineups are more stacked with hitters capable of 20 HR than ever before. If you can give up fewer home runs than you're hitting, you're in good shape. Manufacturing runs is out of style right now. From that standpoint, Hamels willing to take a 1 year deal with a contender makes him extremely appealing. Hamels has been pitching in HR-friendly parks his entire career (PHI, TEX, CHC) has done a great job not giving up HRs for the most part. He had a really good first half in 2019 (allowed 0.81 HR/9). Then he wasn't healthy in the second half (allowed 1.71 HR/9). So the question is a similar one teams are going to have for Gibson as to whether his health will improve. I'm definitely for pursuing him on that 1 year deal.
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The Twins should be listening on offers on Rosario at this point, but I'm not so sold on actively shopping him anymore. When it was first mentioned in the summer, there was an impression they'd get value for him. But now most non-Minnesota sports coverage I've seen seems familiar with his weaknesses in the field and strikezone judgment. I would not expect a big return for him. He's not going to fetch 'impact pitching' in return. Therefore I think the best course of action is to hang on to him till free agency unless a team offers something too good to pass up.
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mlbrumors.com predicts him taking 1 year/$8m from Seattle. If he's willing to take that the Twins should be willing to get that done 10 minutes ago.
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Front Page: Twins Claim RHP Matt Wisler
Harrison Greeley III replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sounds like we've got 2020's Ryne Harper attempt, or more optimistically a Sergio Romo in the rough. Just a quick tip if you don't already know: When the Twins make a buy low pick-up like Wisler, it's best to go straight to the player's Fangraphs page and look at the Pitch Values section. You'll notice the pitcher will tend to have one pitch that's positive and most other pitches that are negative. Therefore the key would be finding the right pitch mix and sequences to maximize value out of that positive pitch. Sergio Romo or Ryne Harper's 2019 first half are great examples of how that's done successfully.- 50 replies
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- matt wisler
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I used to see it this way. I don't anymore. The main thing that threw me off about this whole conversation was reading about how the Astros have proprietary models to evaluate the influence players have on each other. For example, even though Carlos Beltran was a replacement level player productionwise, they credit him for a total of 7 wins in 2017 due to the influence he had on the team and his ability to find pitchers that were tipping. This is talked about in Ben Reiter's 'Astroball' though they were vague on how the evaluations worked. The Twins are trying to replicate whatever it is they do. It's part of what influenced them to get Marwin Gonzalez. There's a reason why the Astros were the primary competition the Twins had for Nelson Cruz. The Twins felt they blew it in 2018 having an aloof clubhouse with too many players in walk years. They made an adjustment and it clearly worked. I think the public is most likely to get the weakest, pseudo-science punditry on this topic. The useful stuff that teams are implementing on this topic is probably going to stay private till it's obsolete.
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If Josh Donaldson is willing to replicate that deal he made with Atlanta last year, my first choice would be to non-tender Cron and get him.
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He has a very marketable quality for smart front offices. He helps others. He helped Martin Perez with his cutter and Berrios with (I think) a slider. There was footage of him using a football to communicate how the ball should leave your hand during a bullpen session. It's one thing for the front office and pitching coaches to communicate their analytics and their plan for how to be successful. But when you have someone out there actually battling and getting results, it's a lot easier to pay attention to what they have to say. Houston deliberately seeks out pitchers with this quality. I get the feeling if Houston sought him out, they'd tweak his pitch mix somehow and turn him into a top tier starter. He's a student of the game and he has a 'growth mindset.' I still believe the likeliest scenario to me is that the Twins QO him and he accepts. But I don't think it's out of the question that Houston pursues him.
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I've fully acknowledged the proof that the ball is different. I also have little doubt that MLB has a hand in it. That said, I find myself struggling to feel outrage over this. Pitcher velocities are up and they are now better at spinning a baseball probably than ever before. The juiced ball doesn't strike me as any less scandalous than lowering the mound to help hitters. The hitting side of the game has struggled to keep up with intellectual/technological advancements of the pitching and defense sides in the past decade. Using this approach to even the field is shrewd, but it's not the worst thing Manfred could have done to the game. Also, as Max Scherzer said, it's not unfair. There's an absence of some players cheating over others like in the PED days. I'm happy to be convinced that I should feel outrage over this. But as I said, I'm struggling.
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The Red Sox very obviously had a plan of attack to throw fastballs upper third or above. You can look at the pitch sequences on the mlb.com recaps. He is absolutely helpless up there. The only contact he made in the series was on pitches middle or lower third. I'm not saying he can't adjust, but there are more high fastballs coming his way until he does.
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- minnesota twins
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This one has legs for recurring articles.
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I tend to avoid him in fantasy baseball because of the low strikeout rates and the unremarkable velocity. I like the look of his slider though. I think there's a possible Gerrit Cole/Charlie Morton/Martin Perez situation where he could change his pitch mix somehow and go from solid to great. I'd be more interested in doing that as an off-season acquisition though.
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He had a 114 OPS+ with regular playing time last year. Since being back in AAA with regular plate appearances, he's got a .366 wOBA. He also doesn't hit arbitration till 2022. He's not a prospect to build a core around, but if you're entering a rebuild like the Giants you could do way worse than having him in the OF rotation. I can't imagine the market for Smith being all that robust considering the service time. I figure the Cubs will be interested, but they're pretty strapped right now on their farm. They'd likely also be offering damaged goods like Ian Happ, I presume.
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Am I being a homer or does the Will Smith rental for Jake Cave seem fair for both sides?
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Here's a novel idea. If you feel disrespected, instead of threatening or possibly executing physical violence with your fastball that could harm a guy's career, maybe...just maybe... I dunno... don't. Text the guy after to say you didn't appreciate it. Strike the guy out next time. Ignore a harmless joke. There are a lot of other ways to go about it than act like an abusive idiot in response.
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- cj cron
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