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Thursday was a busy day in Minor League Baseball as the Twins shuffled their affiliate rosters around, moving more than a dozen players around.
 
Transaction Report: Daniel Palka has been promoted to Rochester, David Martinez has been released, Edgar Corcino, Tyler Jay, and Felix Jorge have all been promoted to Chattanooga. Omar Bencomo has been placed on the Disabled List. Sam Clay, Miles Nordgren, and Daniel Kihle have been promoted to Fort Myers. Max Cordy, Andrew Vasquez, Casey Scoggins, and Christian Cavaness have been promoted to Cedar Rapids. Christian Ibarra has been placed on the Disabled List.
 
Continue reading to find out more detail about Thursday in the Twins farm system:
 
RED WINGS REPORT
Rochester @ Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Box Score
 
In his first at bat in Triple-A, Daniel Palka hit a home run, and for good measure he hit another one later in the game, helping power Rochester to victory. Here is a video of Palka's first home run of the evening.
 
@https://twitter.com/MorrieSilver8/status/751249706794180608
 
Palka also added a double as part of his 3-5 evening that included three runs scored, a pair of RBIs and a couple strike outs. The Red Wings also benefitted from a big night out of Adam Walker, who was also 3-5. Walker had a pair of doubles, a run scored, a pair of RBIs and a strike out. There is a lot of power in the middle of that Rochester lineup with those two hitting fourth and fifth, respectively.
 
Pat Dean struggled on Thursday, giving up 12 hits and seven runs (all earned) over just 4.0 innings. He walked one, struck out three, and gave up three home runs. He was lifted for D.J. Baxendale who pitched two scoreless innings and earned the victory, as Baxendale and the rest of the Rochester bullpen shut down Lehigh Valley the rest of the way. Ryan O'Rourke pitched a scoreless inning and earned his fourth hold of the season. Closer J.T. Chargois came in for a six out save, striking out three and giving up just one hit, earning his sixth save.
 
Final: Red Wings 8, IronPigs 7
 
LOOKOUTS LOOK-IN
Birmingham Barons @ Chattanooga
Box Score
 
Lookouts starter Aaron Slegers gave up a first inning run, but the Lookouts rallied, including six runs in the bottom of the fourth, carrying Slegers to his eighth victory of the year. Slegers final line was 6.0 innings, 7 hits, 2 earned runs, a walk, a strike out, and he gave up a solo home run. Mason Melotakis pitched a perfect seventh, striking out the side on 12 pitches. Rual Fernandez finished the final two innings, giving up a pair of runs on a hit, and two walks. He struck out three.
 
Chattanooga had contributions up and down the lineup as all nine players recorded at least one hit, and six players had multi-hit games. Zach Granite was 3-5 with a run scored, a double, and two RBIs as the leadoff hitter. D.J. Hicks had a big game, too, 2-5 with a home run and three RBIs. Travis Harrison and Niko Goodrum added home runs as well, both solo home runs.
 
Final: Barons 4, Lookouts 10
 
MIRACLE MATTERS
Bradenton Marauders @ Fort Myers (continued from June 26th)
Box Score
 
With Bradenton back in Fort Myers, the two teams continued a rain-shortened June 26th game, picking up in the bottom of the fourth inning with one out and a 4-0 Miracle lead. In an interesting statistical note, Niko Goodrum hit a home run early in that game prior to the delay, meaning he had a home run in High-A and Double-A in games that ended on Thursday night. Using a total of 13 different hitters, the only Miracle with multiple hits was Joe Maloney, going 2-2, including a triple. The Miracle added one additional run in the seventh.
 
Miracle starter Randy Rosario did not return to his start, replaced instead by Luke Bard, who earned the win with 2.0 scoreless innings. Brandon Peterson added 2.0 scoreless innings of his own, before being replaced by Todd Van Steensel who pitched a scoreless ninth to finish off the June 26th game in a shutout.
Final: Marauders 0, Miracle 5
 
Bradenton Marauders @ Fort Myers (Game 2)
Box Score
 
Coincidentally, Randy Rosario was on the bump to start the second game of the evening, meaning he started both ends of this Miracle double-header. Rosario picked up his fifth win of the year to move to 5-5 with 6.1 innings of 3-run baseball. He gave up 7 hits, 3 earned runs, walked 3, and struck out two. He was lifted for John Curtis who shut down the Marauder threat, retiring both batters he faced to finish the 7-inning game.
 
The Miracle tallied 12 hits in this seven inning game, including a pair of hits from T.J. White, Nick Gordon, and Daniel Kihle (making his High-A debut). Kihle was 2-3 with a double, run scored, 2 RBIS and a strike out. LaMonte Wade also added an extra base hit (a double), plus an RBI and a walk.
 
Final: Marauders 3, Miracle 8
 
KERNELS KORNER
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers @ Cedar Rapids
Box Score
 
In a good old fashioned pitchers' duel, the Kernels held on to a 1-0 lead to defeat the Timber Rattlers in front of 2,077 fans at Perfect Game Field. Kernels starter Cody Stashak was perfect through five innings before a broken bat single broke things up in the top of the sixth, the only hit Stashak would give up over eight innings of stellar work. Stashak walked three and struck out eight. Tom Hackimer pitched a perfect ninth to earn his first save of the year for the Kernels.
 
The Kernels managed to scatter seven hits against Timber Rattlers starter Jordan Yamamoto over seven innings, but managed to push just that single run across the plate, an RBI groundout from Rainis Silva in the bottom of the second inning, scoring Jaylin Davis. Davis was the only hitter, on either team, with more than one hit, 2-3 with a double and a run scored.
Final: Timber Rattlers 0, Kernels 1
 
E-TWINS E-NOTES
Elizabethton @ Bristol Pirates (Game 1)
Box Score
 
With a double-header slated for the evening, a long night was made longer due to a 1-hour rain delay, pushing first pitch back to 7pm, and pushing the start of the second game back to nearly 10pm.
 
In the first game, Elizabethton managed 4 runs on just four hits, despite striking out 10 times in seven innings. Lewin Diaz was 1-3, including a home run, and a pair of runs scored. First round draft pick Alex Kirilloff was the only player to record a multi-hit game, 2-3 with a double and an RBI. Kirilloff is hitting .414 through his first 8 games of the season with an OPS over a thousand.
 
Elizabethton starter Domenick Carlini gave up 10 hits and seven runs (all earned) over 4.0 innings. He walked one, struck out two, and gave up a home run. He was lifted for Hecto Lujan who pitched a pair of scoreless innings, striking out three, and giving up just one hit.
 
Final: E-Twins 4, Pirates 7
 
Elizabethton @ Bristol Pirates (Game 2)
Box Score
 
The E-Twins struggled with the bats again in the second game of the evening, with just five hits. Lewin Diaz was 1-3 with a double, and Shane Carrier was 1-3 with a double, as well. Kirilloff was 1-3 with the Twins' lone RBI.
 
Tyler Wells didn't make it out of the fourth inning, giving the Twins 3.2 innings of two-run baseball before being lifted for Griffin Jax (phenomenal name, good luck to ya kid), who gave up a pair of runs as well. Wells struck out six without walking anyone. Jax added a strike out of his own, and also did not give any free passes. Neither pitched particularly poorly, but without much run support, they needed to be better.
 
Final: E-Twins 1, Pirates 4
GCL TWINS TALK
GCL Twins @ GCL Rays
Box Score
 
The Twins just barley managed more hits (4) than errors (3) en route to losing handily to the Rays. Ben Rotvedt was 1-4 with a double, the lone extra base hit for the Rays. The Twins managed just three at bats with runners in scoring position all evening. Starter Bo Hellquist picked up the loss (0-1), spreading five runs (just two earned) over 4.0 innings, walking one and striking out three. Moises Gomez had a great outing in relief, pitching three scoreless innings, walking no one and he struck out five. Zach Strecker pitched the eighth, giving up two runs on four hits to end the night for the Twins.
Final: GCL Twins 1, GCL Rays 7
 
DSL TWINS TAKES
DSL Twins @ DSL Orioles2 (Game 1)
Box Score
Final: DSL Twins 5, DSL Orioles2 3
 
DSL Twins @ DSL Orioles2 (Game 2)
Box Score
Final: DSL Twins 1, DSL Orioles2 6
 
The DSL Twins split a double-header on Thursday morning. The Twins more or less threw two bullpen games, with Carlos Suniaga the biggest bright-spot of the day, pitching 4.0 innings of relief. Suniaga gave up three hits, and a walk, but what really jumps off the page is his nine (NINE!) strike outs. The other six pitchers the Twins used on the evening managed just 7 more Ks.
 
Over two games, the Twins had just two players record multi-hit games, one in each. Ruben Santana was 2-4 with a hit and an RBI in the first game, and Yestin Encarnacion was 3-4 with a run scored in the second game.
TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY
 
Hitter of the Day - Daniel Palka, Rochester
Pitcher of the Day - Cody Stashak, Cedar Rapids
 
FRIDAY'S PROBABLES
 
Rochester @ Scranton/WB - Jose Berrios (8-3, 2.43)
 
Birmingham @ Chattanooga - Kohl Stewart (2-3, 3.58)
 
Dunedin @ Fort Myers - Randy LeBlanc (2-2, 4.33, also has a great mustache)
 
Kane County @ Cedar Rapids - Lachlan Wells (1-0, 1.74)
 
E-Twins @ Bristol - Ryan Mason (0-1, 14.14)
 
GCL Twins @ GCL Red Sox - TBD
 
DSL Orioles2 @ DSL Twins - TBD
 
Please ask questions and discuss the Thursday games.
 
 
-ERolf

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/lou/sports/m-basebl/auto_bsilarge/10896374.jpeg
 
Zack Burdi is a 6'3", 210 lb. pitcher for the University of Louisville who was undrafted out of high school. Burdi's fastball usually sits in the 95-98 miles per hour range, but he can reach triple digits at times, and his slider and changeup are both very good pitches. The Cardinals' closer is being considered both as a reliever and a starter by teams this spring, and if a team believes he can start he is a likely first round pick. Zack puts a maximum effort into his delivery, and that could scare away some teams who might take him in the first round, but his arm action is relatively clean. If Burdi is a reliever he is a quick to the big leagues future closer, and this gives him the rare combination of both a high ceiling and floor. Burdi is one of the fastest rising college pitchers in this year's draft, and if he continues to rise he could be a top twenty pick on June 6th. The Twins drafted Burdi's brother Nick in the second round of the 2014 draft, and there is beginning to be a lot of talk about Zack being the pick at #15, so he is definitely a player to be watching.

The day after the World Series comes to a close may be one of the saddest in baseball. With the realization that the offseason has officially commenced, it's time to buckle in for the winter. For the Twins, 2016 represents that start of what should be a renewed run of playoff contention. To accomplish that, modeling after both World Series teams seems to be a good starting place.
 
In taking a top down view at both the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals, both teams have relatively apparent strengths. For the Mets, it was no doubt a pitching staff of fireballers that could all be regarded as true aces. From Harvey to Syndergaard, and those in between, the Mets don't miss a beat. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year isn't their number one, and Zack Wheeler didn't factor in at all during 2015. It's safe to say the Mets are plenty strong in the pitching department.
 
Then you have the Royals, and their foundation built on creating havoc and sustaining leads. A lineup full of guys that simply put the ball in play, backed by a bullpen that doesn't surrender runs. While Ned Yost isn't always the cleanest in his execution, it's the combination of putting pressure on the opposition while breathing easy with a lead that makes his club dangerous.
 
For Minnesota, Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have yet to accomplish either of those teams qualities thus far. There's no doubt the Twins lineup has been given a boost with the emergence of young stars, but the fact remains that there are some significant holes. On the mound, both starting pitching and relief work pales in comparison to the World Series finalists.
 
A rotation composes more a good-not-great types, the Twins don't project to be like the Mets on the bump any time soon. Owning one of the worst bullpens in baseball this past season, Minnesota knew a lead was never safe. Despite a strong first half from closer Glen Perkins, there were apparent deficiencies from the get go. For the Twins to turn the corner, taking bits and pieces from the two November squads would be a good start.
 
Looking at what the Twins should have in the rotation to start 2016, not much will change. Jose Berrios or Trevor May could be added into the grouping, but at least from the start, a true ace doesn't appear to be on the horizon. While every team would love to have a go-to number one, Minnesota has to look no further than the Royals to see that isn't necessary. Getting quality outings on a nightly basis to keep you in games is much more sustainable. Fixing the bullpen makes that strategy much more workable.
 
In trying to copy the offensive production of both squads, ironing out a more complete lineup has to be a goal. Working around the inclusion of players that can't advance the order, Paul Molitor would have plenty more tools to work with. The Royals created runs on the basepaths, and by protecting the zone. The Mets took the approach of the longball, and working counts. While no doubt Kansas City's plan of attack is more sustainable, both approaches (with complete lineups), should produce positive results.
 
At this point, the Twins can effectively rule out being either the Royals or the Mets. What they can do however, is focus on what they do and don't want to emulate. Building a stronger bullpen, while filling out a complete lineup is a good start. Having a more advanced defense than New York, it's not out of line to suggest the Twins can put together something plenty special on their own.
 
Only two teams advance to the series that matters most each year, but in watching it unfold, the Twins can make the necessary tweaks to draw much more even.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I like doing prospect lists sometime after the draft and after some rookie ball has been played. In part because it's a bit of a slow time of the year in the minor league forums and in the last few years, it's been relatively slow in the major league forums. This is a link to my top 25 from last season. Most of these guys are still in the system, and that has a lot to do with the fact that they were mostly excelling at the lower levels. That has changed with a lot of guys showing good results in AA/AAA, and I suspect Terry Ryan is going to have some interesting offseason choices to make this winter. First, let's start with the graduations:
 
Trevor May (6th) - I've been more of a believer in May then a lot of people. I still think that long term, he could profile as a 1/2 type, though likely more a 2 at this point. His major league season thus far has been pretty successful for his first full year campaign. I suspect over the next couple of season that he will improve on that significantly. Regardless, at this point, May is a nice asset in the rotation and would be coveted by a lot of teams if he was available.
 
Kennys Vargas (10) - I suppose the 1B/DH could still technically flirt with being listed, but after spending most of the second half and a part of this season in the majors, I'm removing him altogether. He definitely still has some work to do, but he's definitely still middle of the order potential. I suspect he will be a full time regular come 2016.
 
Eddie Rosario (11) - Rosario is still a work in progress at the plate, but he's a nice defensive OF and is making enough contact to stay with the club. He's likely to be this year's Danny Santana, and I half expect him to return to the minors at some point, but he's done a good job to remind us why he used to be so highly rated.
Also removed from last year's list was Sean Gilmartin who was released this spring. He was 16th on my list last season and is having a reasonably decent season in his rookie year as a relief pitcher for the Mets. Now for the good stuff:
 
_________________
1) Miguel Sano 3B (2) - Sano continues to be a work in progress at 3B, but his bat is probably pretty close to being ready. He got off to a slow start given the rust, but since the calendar turned to May, his OPS has been greater than .900 and he's hitting plenty of home runs and doubles to continue cementing him as one of the leagues better power hitting prospects. He has plenty of power and excellent plate discipline. He does strike out quite a bit, but he's good at laying off pitches out of the zone and generates quite a few walks as well. His brief trial has gone well enough to say that his bat is ready. His real problem right now is that he's blocked at the major league level. He can probably play some DH in the short term, but in the long term, the Twins need him in the field to make room for Vargas and/or Arcia. Trevor Plouffe is firmly entrenched at 3rd and has been very good. Joe Mauer is at first, and while Mauer hasn't been that good this year, I highly doubt the team moves him. Sano should however, be an immediate, middle of the order impact bat for this team at a position in the league where OPS is weak. In his prime, I suspect he may have a few MVP type seasons and I expect him to be long term fixture on a contending team.
 
2) Byron Buxton CF (1)- Buxton got off to a slow start after missing a season. His defense is pretty good, but he's struggled with breaking pitches. Starting in May, he really turned it on posting an OPS > .900 in AA ball and was called up to the Twins. He struggles more with major league pitching than Sano does, and as such his bat is definitely not ready at this point, but given that no one is really blocking him, he's going to get every opportunity to succeed. The reason why he's still on this list has more to do with a lengthy DL stay that has kept him off the field. That said, I fully expect to see him take a big step forward in 2016, though he may find himself spending some time in AAA at first. Long term, he's likely to be an elite bat and elite glove at a key defensive position. I see him more as a leadoff type, but if his power increases, I could see him becoming a 3 hitter. He could likely have some MVP seasons as well and should be a cornerstone player for a contending team.
 
 
3) Jose Berrios SP (5) - Berrios has done nothing but prove the naysayers wrong. He was a compensation pick out of high school whose biggest knock was size and a relatively flat fastball that kept him from going higher on the lists. He dominated rookie ball, which given his age is a good thing, though his first year in the MWL was nothing special (it wasn't bad, just not that great). In 2014 he really broke out, adding a few ticks to his fastball and even making it up for a brief AAA stint. He returned to AA in 2015 and has been every bit as good, and he was recently promoted to AAA. He has mid 90s speed on his fastball and has excellent control. He strikes out more than a batter per inning. I'm not quite sure he is an ACE, but I do think he will be a very good number 2 at the major league level. His problem at the moment is that the Twins have a bit of a glut in pitching. I know that seems rather odd given the org's history, but as it stands right now, we have too many starters at the major league level and a few decent ones in Rochester as well. I suspect that trades this offseason will free up some space there, but Berrios may have a problem on the ETA front. I'm guessing he ETAs in 2016 as an injury call up and will likely be in the rotation full time at some point in 2017 after the team manages to trade either Nolasco or Santana. This might be the main casualty of the FA spending the front office has done for pitchers as it's going to be hard to work in some of these younger pitchers when Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana are pretty much assured spots and Gibson and May are both pitching well themselves.
 
4) Max Kepler OF/1B (23) - I had soured quite a bit on Kepler because other than a nice stint in rookie ball, he really hadn't done much in terms of production. At this point last year, he had just started to turn a corner in FTM and that could easily be attributed to a small sample. He kept it up for the remainder of the year and has responded to one of the harder minor league jumps by putting on a show in AA all season long being one of their better hitters. While he hasn't been launching home runs all over the place like some of his counterparts, he has speed, some power, and can play all 3 OF positions (though he's probably not an ideal CF). He isn't a huge walk machine, but he also doesn't strike out much either. His K/BB ratio this season in Chattanooga is nearly a 1 to 1 ratio. Kepler has that high ceiling that people covet, and given that he won't be 23 until spring training next year, I think it's likely that he's going to have a very nice major league career. This is his second season on the 40 man, and he has 2 more before he's out of options. I suspect he's likely going to finish up in AAA at some point this season and have the ability to audition for a major league role in 2016. I expect him to see his first call up next year.
 
5) Tyler Jay (unrnk) SP - There's a lot to like from this kid, with his biggest question mark being how his velocity will hold up as a full time starter. He worked primarily as a relief pitcher in college, but this lefty has a 4 pitch mix that could all be plus pitches. He already has a pretty high workload for a college reliever and will finish this season in the relief role, possibly in AA at some point. I expect him to be sent back to FTM this spring and work there as a starter. Like the other pitchers in the top 10, the lefty has top of the rotation potential, especially if he can pitch in the mid 90s (he's currently upper 90s as a reliever). His pitches all leave from the same arm slot giving him a deceptive delivery and making it harder for opposing hitters to pick up on his off speed repertoire.
 
6) Alex Meyer (3) SP/RP - This season has been difficult for Meyer, and I'm willing to give him a pass this year given his potential, but to say it has been disappointing is an understatement. Meyer has high 90s stuff with a devastating off speed pitch and a change up that's a work in progress. His problem has been the dreaded 'consistency', as he's seen his walk rate climb as he moved up the ladder, with things falling a part this season in AAA. He moved to the pen, which I'm assuming is temporary, and has had a bit of a resurgence in Rochester, but he's yet to replicate his season last year, which is not good. I think this is probably worst of it and suspect he'll start to improve a bit, though I suspect he's going to spend a good chunk of 2016 at Rochester again. His biggest problem right now is that he doesn't throw enough strikes. Hopefully he can figure that out as that will be the difference between being an ace or having a major league career.
 
7) Stephen Gonsalves (13) SP - The hard throwing lefty was originally considered to be late first round type talent in the 2013 draft, but fell due to some minor off field issues as well as signability concerns. He's been rather good in the Minnesota system with a career WHIP today of just over 1.0 and a K/9 north of 10. He's a lefty with mid 90s stuff, so at this point, a floor in the pen seems very realistic. Ceiling wise, he has top of the rotation potential. He's just moved to high A, so he has a ways to go before he hits the majors, but he's likely looking at AA at some point next season.
 
8) Kohl Stewart (4) SP - Stewart was pretty good in his first career year in Cedar Rapids last season, though his K rate left a bit to be desired. He hasn't exactly stood out in high A this year, and that K rate has actually been worse this year (though it has been improving of late). That said, he has 4 pitches that are potential plus pitches, has mid 90s heat, and is 20 years old this year, much younger than his counterparts. He's also never really been a full time pitcher, so people need to be a bit more patient with him as he has more to learn than most prospects. But with that in mind, he has top of the rotation potential and should not be ignored. I do think at some point he's going to have to put things together, whether that is through repeating high A next season or continuing to aggressively push him, I'm not sure. I suspect he returns to high A and will be in line for a midseason promotion to AA if things go well. The Twins have another 3 seasons with him before he's a 40 man decision, so there's plenty of time. That said, there are a lot of guys who are succeeding at much higher levels, with similar potential. That's a good thing, and it's also a big reason for his drop. One thing that's been somewhat encouraging, is that he has been striking out more guys of late. Perhaps he's putting it together, who knows. Only time will tell there.
 
9) Chih-Wei Hu (14) SP - Hu was a pleasant surprise last year posting some fairly impressive results for Cedar Rapids, though at age 20, I ranked him a bit lower on the list. Not that 20 is a bad age for the Midwest league, but he there were several younger pitchers also doing quite well in the MWL. Hu responded to the FSL this season by nothing short of sheer dominance, continuing his breakout. He gets plenty of Ks (though he's seen a significant drop in his K rate as the season has worn on) and limits both walks and the long ball quite effectively. From what I've read, the righty throws in the mid 90s with a decent assortment of off speed offerings. High A is a bit of a pitchers haven, so his transition to AA will likely tell us where he's going to ultimately fit on the pecking order, but right now, I still think he can be a top half of the rotation arm, and he has done nothing to dissuade that opinion.
 
10) Jorge Polanco 2B/SS (6) - Perhaps I'm a bit cynical, but I'm not quite as high on Polanco as others. He does get the credit of doing this in an up the middle position, though his defense from what I understand still needs considerable work. To his credit, he's 21 in AAA. He's putting up decent numbers, but not much in terms of power or plate discipline. His OPS, however is nothing special. While that's pretty good for a SS, it's not stand out, high ceiling type and his defense is presently not good enough at the position to make it worthwhile. His other real problem is that he's burned 2 options already. I'm guessing he may be one of those guys eligible for four options, which means he won't be forcing a decision until 2018, at which point he should certainly be ready. He's received 2 very brief call ups, but those were more for emergency situations. I would probably have him finish out the season in AA and then start in AAA next year. I suspect he will receive another call up at some point in 2016, and hopefully for more than an emergency. He may be the SS of the future, but in all honesty, I could see him being dangled with someone else to pickup someone with a bit higher ceiling. While SS is not a strength of the organization, there are options in the high minors and the majors. Eduardo Escobar is putting up league average offensive numbers and playing average to better defense (though for some inexplicable reason, he's not getting as much playing time at SS one would like. Santana and Polanco should be competing for the role extensively, and both of the ability to break out and be an above average player there. From the Twins standpoint, patience may be a virtue as I suspect one of the two of them will eventually claim that role.
 
To summarize the top 10, I'm rather impressed with the fact that only 2 guys on this list do not play up the middle defensive positions. Technically, Sano at 3B still occupies a premium position, just not up the middle, and Kepler could play CF in a pinch, both of whom look like they could potentially play at an elite level at some point in their careers. There are also six pitchers listed, all of whom could slot in as 1-3 type pitchers to complement a young core that already holds two very promising pitchers in Gibson and May. While there is a bit of a glut in a few of these positions, the advantage here is that these guys could be used to net some premium talent at another position of need. With that in mind though, they already have a core of higher ceiling guys in Arcia, Rosario, Gibson, May, and Vargas to complement excellent production from Plouffe and Dozier. This team is likely going to win a lot of games over the next 5-10 seasons and will have both depth to whether injury as well as the ability to acquire help wherever they need it.
 
11) Nick Gordon (7) SS - Last year's number 1 pick has been aggressively moved just like the previous two picks in Buxton and Stewart. Gordon has not done as well. Granted, he's young for his league and has managed to hold his own, but he hasn't impressed much. He's likely to stick at SS, which elevates him quite a bit in the prospect world. To be fair though, he's 19 and in low A. Expecting him to do what Buxton did is probably unfair. Offensively, we saw a nice uptick in his numbers for June and so far in July his OPS is well over .800, so he may be figuring it out. He's probably not going to be the next coming of A-Rod, but an average to slightly above bat playing average to above average defense is still very valuable. His drop here has more to do with the ascension of other prospects and should not be considered an indictment on his play. Granted there's room to go here, but he'd be a very valuable prospect in a number of systems.
 
12) Travis Harrison (16) 3B/LF - Harrison, despite his age, gets little love in the prospect world. He was snubbed for the all star game in AA despite being a very good 3B this season. He's cooled off a bit of late, which is probably part of the reason he gets overlooked, but he's still been a very good performer. He's 22, in AA, holds a career minor league OPS over .750 and keeps his OBP more than .100 points above his average. He has some power to go with it. He's been overshadowed by the likes of Sano, Kepler, and Walker. He has the requisite skills needed to be a major leaguer. His ceiling is an above average major league regular. He probably won't be a star, but it's quite possible that he has an all star type season or two at some point in his career. Given the Twins depth presently, Harrison might find himself with another team at some point, as there really isn't a place to put him if his higher ceiling counter parts can establish themselves.
 
13) Adam Brett Walker (17) RF - Walker is one of the more polarizing prospects at Twins Daily as he has put up some rather gaudy numbers at each stop. He's on pace this year to club more than 30 home runs, which is pretty impressive for a minor leaguer, and he's led his league in home runs for the last couple of seasons. Bottom line, he has 80 raw power. The down side is his inability to take a walk and the fact that he strikes out a lot. Despite posting an OPS over .900 in AA, his peripherals have actually worsened, with a strikeout to walk ratio more than 5 to 1. On one end, AA doesn't seem to be challenging him, but on the other end, he's getting worse in the areas that he needs to be improving. He isn't a 40 man decision until the end of the 2016 season, which is good. I suspect he will remain in AA and start next season in Rochester. How that plays out is yet to be seen. Perhaps he can be that outlier that defies statistics, but I suspect major league pitchers will do a good job exposing those problems. His defense is pretty suspect as well, so carving out a role as a defensive OF won't be happening. Given that he's performing at AA, he likely has a floor as a late inning pinch hit all or nothing type bat, which isn't a bad person to bring in during a high leverage situation where pitchers have to be a bit more careful when they pitch. As a ceiling, there's no question that he can be a star if he figures out those contact issues, but time is not really on his side anymore, as he still is not learning plate discipline.
 
14) Lewis Thorpe (12) SP - Thorpe is another high ceiling prospect who would likely be quite a bit higher on this list had it not been for a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. He's out all year after putting together a fairly impressive start for a 17/18 year old in the MWL. His overall numbers weren't spectacular, but when you look at his month to month numbers, you can see improvement. His 18/19 season is lost and he'll start in the MWL again I assume next year. The lefty throws in the mid 90s and could be another top of the rotation arm.
 
15) Tyler Duffey (21) SP - Duffey continues to defy expectations as he moves up the ladder as well as improving on those peripheral stats that we tend to pay attention to. The converted closer probably profiles more as a #3 ceiling, but he's looking more and more to have a back of the rotation floor. These types of guys are pretty valuable. He does have some decent velocity, and has been able to raise his minor league career K rate to around 7.4. His walk rate is pretty miniscule as he's hovered around 2 this season and has a minor league career rate under that number. Now in Rochester, he's another arm that can be counted on for depth and possibly a spot in the rotation.
 
16) Josmil Pinto (8) C - Pinto is the first catcher on this list, and his play this season has been less than impressive. He was kept in AAA to work on his glove, but his bat this season has been pretty bad as well. Given he has a minor league career OPS of over .800, I'm hoping his offensive play this year is simply a victim of some bad luck, recovering from a concussion, and the fact that he's working hard on his glove. I had hoped he would have graduated from this list to be a counter part to Suzuki, but thus far, that hasn't been the plan. At 26, he's not really young anymore and his option status is going to force the Twins to find a spot for him shortly. He should be able to be part of a decent catching tandem, with an obvious bent towards his offense.
 
17) Wander Javier SS (unrnk) - Remember when the Twins signed Miguel Sano and he was instantaneously their top prospect? That alone was a testimony to how bad their farm system was at this point. The Twins made news on July 2nd signing Javier to a team international FA record of $4 million dollars, which will make Javier a very watched prospect. At age 16, there are lots of questions, particularly if he will stick at short, and there's some disagreeing opinions among scouts that have watched him. On the top side, he should be average to above with all of his tools with as many as 3 60 grade tools when he matures. That's pretty good as a SS, as he could be a middle order bat at a premium position. Of course, he's 16 and hasn't played professionally yet, so time tell.
 
18) Taylor Rogers (unrnk) SP - I haven't given Rogers a lot of love due to what I think is a relatively low ceiling (back of the rotation arm), but Rogers continues to perform and owns a career minor league ERA around 3 with a career K/9 around 7. The ERA is standout, which Rogers gets by minimizing hits and walks, essential for any pitcher, but he lacks the swing and miss stuff that makes me think it will play as anything more than a 4/5 type guy in the majors. That said, he's now in AAA and putting up numbers similar to his minor league numbers. At this point I'd say his ceiling is probably a #3, which isn't a bad thing, but he's still more likely to be a 4/5. That said, given his age and performance I think the chance of hitting the floor is pretty high. He's blocked by a lot of guys in the Twins system, so I wouldn't be surprised if his career really takes off with another team. He could also be moved into a relief role as his numbers against lefties stand out. It's possible that this would add a tick or two to his FB and he could be a dominant reliever.
 
19) Mitch Garver (15) C - He got off to a pretty bad start but has really turned it up since June. I'm glad given the fact that catching is pretty weak in the system right now. Garver looks to be a good defensive catcher but can swing the bat a bit. He's not a power guy, but he does keep the OBP up and hit a lot of doubles. That's pretty valuable given how bad ML catchers hit. His first two months were pretty bad, but he cracked an .836 OPS in June and his July OPS is over .700. He may be one of those guys who needs some time to adjust to new levels. AA will be the big test for his bat.
 
20) Nick Burdi (10) RP - Nick Burdi has lost the luster that he had last year in what has definitely been a difficult year for him. While his strike out numbers were good in AA, he was waking a batter every other inning on average and giving up way too many hits to make it work. He brings 100 MPH heat, but as well all know, major league hitters can hit a 100 MPH pitch. That doesn't mean that there's no hope for him. He's been very successful in Fort Meyers since his demotion, and given that the Twins are working on his mechanics he will likely be just fine. What it really means is that he's probably not going to be in the majors this year, and the soonest he will be auditioning for them will be next year. I hold out hope that Burdi will be promoted back to AA at some point this season and will be much better than what he was.
 
Last year, it was said that the 11-20 Twins list would be better than a lot of team's top 10 lists. With graduations (and expected graduations), I don't think this statement will hold true for many teams, except those with dreadful farm systems, but there is some really nice depth here, and this 11-20 list is still quite a bit better than most teams 11-20 lists. It's a nice mix with 4 pitchers, one of whom could be that coveted ace, 2 catchers, a SS, and some OF/3B help as well. A good number of these guys are high enough in the org to guarantee a major league look at some point when the need arises, or command enough value to be shipped away for something. Quite a few have higher ceilings as well, but at this level, there's lots of question marks. The highest ceiling of this section (Thorpe) underwent Tommy John this spring. Walker has impressive power, but his inability to lay off pitches limits the type of impact he will have in the majors. Harrison looks like a Trevor Plouffe type prospect: above average, may take some time to develop, and will likely put up some quietly decent numbers. I suspect some of these guys will take some big steps forward next year, and a couple might even crack some top 100 lists in the coming years.
 
21) JT Chargois (unrnk) RP - In the same mold as Burdi, Chargois can really dial up the heat to around triple digits. He's a tad older and is seeing his first taste of AA (and struggling a bit), but he's another reliever that could conceivably be in Minnesota in shorter order. His career has been thus far plague by injuries, which is largely what has kept him from moving up faster. He gets lots of Ks and keeps the home run rate low, allowing only 1 in 48 career major league innings. Chargois has potential to be a back of the bullpen stud. I expect him to restart in AA and likely be a mid-season promotion to Rochester in 2016.
 
22) Jermaine Palacios (unrnk) SS - During the lean years, a kid like this would be a top 10 prospect. He just turned 19 (July 19), and carries an OPS as a SS over .900 which is pretty impressive, even for a kid in the GCL. Rookie ball stats certainly can be taken with a grain of salt, but there's something to be said about a guy who is doing it when he's younger than his league. Recent examples in our history include Sano, Rosario, and Arcia, all of whom murdered opposing pitches in the GCL. Palacios hasn't been quite that good, but he's been significantly better than the league at an important defensive position. He might yet get a shot in Elizabethon, but will likely be there next year or possibly even the MWL next year.
 
23) Levi Michael (unrnk) 2B - After years of sub par performance, I had largely written the former first round pick off; however, Michael broke out last season and has continued his break out this year in AA posting an OPS over .800 with a keen eye for plate discipline. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to make the majors as a 2B, but he's blocked at the major league level by Dozier and has lots of competition as well. He's a 40 man decision this offseason, and I have a hard time believing he's going to be left exposed, though I could see him packaged as a means to acquire major league help or potentially international FA dollars as there's a bit of a glut at his position. That said, given his performance at AA, he's got a very real chance of making the majors in some capacity.
 
24) Luis Arraez (unrnk) 2B - Arraez is Palacios' double play partner on the GCL Twins. The slightly younger counterpart is also putting up good numbers in the GCL at an even younger age, as he won't turn 19 until next season. His OPS isn't quite as impressive, and his performance has tailed off of late, but he makes very good contact with a decent amount of speed. He too is a ways off, but is thus far out performing his much higher priced international FA counterparts.
 
25) Brandon Peterson (unrnk) RP - Peterson is finishing up his second full season with the Twins after being drafted in the 13th round in 2013. His minor league career to date has a K/9 of over 12, though he is not quite as stingy with the walks as some would like. He does induce a lot of weak contact as his career hits/9 sits at an absurd value UNDER 6. He's given up 1 home run in the last 2 seasons combined. His transition to AA hasn't come without bumps, but he's still putting up some very respectable numbers as a 23 year old in AA.
 
26) Mat Batts (unrnk) SP - The 2014 17th rounder is having an excellent season, one that has been a surprise given how far down he was drafted. He's maintained an ERA around 2 across both low A and high A and gets a fair amount of Ks to go with it. To go with that, he keeps the home runs down (2 HRs in 100 IP this season so far) and is stingy with the walks as well with a BB/9 of around 2 this season across both levels. He earned a mid season promotion to Fort Meyers and has adjusted seamlessly. The lefty should start in AA next season, which will be a very good test to indicate what his future might hold for the Twins. Given his age and draft status, you won't see him on many prospect lists this year, but if he continues dominating hitters, he's going to be a much more known name next year at this time.
 
27) Travis Blankenhorn (unrnk) 3B - The 2015 3rd rounder impressed right out of the gate posting pretty respectable numbers in a 14 game sample at the GCL. This earned him a promotion to E-town, where he's done even better. He's 18, and is forcing himself into the Cedar Rapids picture for the 2016 season, so there's a lot to like about this young 3B. His plate discipline has been respectable thus far and he has a modest amount of power to go with it. The ceiling seems fairly high for this kid.
 
28) Amaurys Minier (22) 1B/3B/OF - As a big bonus sign in the international market, Minier has shown occasional flashes to justify the signing. However, his overall result line has been less than impressive. He's young, so there's plenty of time/potential here, but he's going to remain lower on this list until he can start hitting more consistently. His batting average at E-town currently sits right around the Mendoza line. At 19, he has plenty of room for improvement.
 
29) Huascar Ynoa (unrnk) SP - Ynoa was another big bonus sign from last year and has been pretty decent in the DSL in his age 17 season. He's got to work a bit more on his control, but this is somewhat normal for a 17 year old kid. I like the upside, but at his current age he has a long long way to go before achieving that.
 
30) Lewin Diaz (unrnk) 1B - Diaz was another high priced international free agent signing for around 1.2 M during the 2013 international signing period. He impressed during his age 17 stint in the DSL, but his first taste of action in the states has been less than impressive. His average is low, though he has pretty good plate discipline maintaining an OBP .100 higher than his average. His power, however, has been non-existent. That could definitely be a small sample, as he's only 20 games into his season, and at his age it's not too much of a concern just yet.
 
 
HM: Aaron Sleegers, Jake Reed (20), Zach Jones, Jean Carlos Arias, Trey Cabbage, Miguel Gonzalez, Alex Swim, Jason Kanzler, Max Murphy, AJ Achter, Dallas Gallant, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Granite, Niko Goodrum, Trey Vavra, Tanner English, Danny Ortiz, Engelb Vielma, and Cameron Boozer.
 
This is my 3rd prospect list, and I have to admit that the deeper I go, the harder this gets. There's lots of deserving guys who have been left off the list, and at the lower ranks, there really isn't much that distinguishes them. I try to find a nice balance between results and ceiling, though once you get into the lower ranks, ceiling tends to take precedence. While the reality says that many of these guys won't make it, what I really like is that the Twins system is pretty deep everywhere except catcher and the minor leagues should do a good job providing impact pieces either in trades or in call ups for the majors during their resurgence. As a team, the Twins look posed to be a force in the AL central as soon as next season and will likely remain there for a good 5-10 years given the depth they have in their minors.

If you go to the web site of the baseball program at the University of South Carolina-Aiken, you’ll find a link listing all of the Pacer ballplayers who are playing professional baseball.
 
Well, not quite all of them.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Miller2015b.jpg
Sean Miller (Photo: SD Buhr)

Cedar Rapids Kernels infielder Sean Miller spent three years in a Pacers uniform and he’s now played for two minor league teams, but South Carolina-Aiken’s webmaster hasn’t updated the list since last September and Miller just wrapped up his college career this past spring.
 
​(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
Miller, the first of the Minnesota Twins’ 2015 draft class to suit up for the Kernels this season (Chris Paul joined Cedar Rapids later), was a “young junior,” to use Kernels manager Jake Mauer’s words. He was just 20 years old throughout his junior year of college and won’t turn 21 until after the current season ends.
 
That may have been one factor that the Twins found attractive about Miller, whom they selected in the 10th round of the 2015 draft. The Twins sent the middle infielder to their Appalachian League affiliate in Elizabethton, Tennessee, just about a four hour drive north of his college campus in Aiken, immediately after signing him to a contract that included a reported $125,000 bonus.
 
It was a short stay for Miller in Tennessee. On July 11, he was promoted to the Kernels.
 
The quick promotion caught Miller a bit by surprise.
 
“Actually, it did. Kind of a lot,” Miller admitted. “Because I was only in Etown for two or three weeks, I guess. I played in 12 or 13 games (it was officially 11 games). So it was definitely surprising, but it was really exciting.
 
“I was playing good defense there and I was hitting okay. I was hitting balls hard but I didn’t have a great average or numbers, like that.”
 
Short as it was, Miller said he enjoyed getting his first taste of professional ball in Elizabethton.
 
“It was exactly what I was expecting. It was awesome to get a chance to play and be on your own and just get the whole experience of it.”
 
In truth, Miller was hitting just .209 in Elizabethton when he was promoted to Cedar Rapids. But his numbers since joining the Kernels have been much more encouraging. He’s not showing a lot of power, but he carried a .303 batting average with the Kernels through this past weekend.
 
“Sean’s put the ball in play and gives us a little bit of speed that, obviously with (Tanner) English gone, we’ve been lacking a little bit,” Mauer said of Miller.
 
Miller played high school ball in Maryland for his father, Steve Miller, who had his own five-year minor league career after being the 13th round pick of the San Francisco Giants in the 1983 June Amateur Draft.
 
Having a dad with that kind of background comes with both advantages and disadvantages.
 
"It’s always hard with him being your dad,” Miller conceded. “You don’t want to listen to him, but you have to because you know he’s been there. He’s been through the same stuff you’re going through.
 
“It’s definitely (a battle), always arguing about something, but you’ve just got to realize that he knows more than you do.”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Miller2015a.jpg
Sean Miller (Photo: SD Buhr)

The elder Miller has made two trips to see his son in his first minor league season, one to Tennessee and the other to Cedar Rapids.
 
The Kernels infielder said his dad’s advice has remained on the practical side from the beginning.
 
“He always kind of told me it’s not as glamorous as everyone makes it out to be. It’s more of a job than a game now. And it’s kind of how he described it. He was pretty right on it.”
 
Miller is finding that to be true as he nears the end of a year that began in the Peach Belt Conference and is concluding in the Class A Midwest League. He’s found there’s a pretty significant difference in the quality of the pitchers he’s now facing.
 
“It’s definitely a lot better, more consistent” Miller acknowledged. “Night in, night out, you face guys that are definitely a lot better. Position players, too. A lot of the outfielders, if they get a chance, they’re going to run it down and catch it. They’re not going to allow a hit there. It takes some getting used to.”
 
As you’d expect, Miller is happy with the success he’s had thus far with the Kernels.
 
“Definitely,” he confirmed. “I’m just trying to come in every day and have fun and just play ball.”
 
So far, Miller has found the biggest challenge in pro ball to be just maintaining an even keel over the course of a long season.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Miller2015c.jpg
Sean Miller (Photo: SD Buhr)

“I think getting too high, sometimes you have a good game and you’re kind of up here,” Miller said, lifting his hand toward the top of his head. “And you come up the next night and go 0 for 4 or something like that. I mean it sucks, but you’ve got to find a happy medium there and kind of stay consistent with your attitude. Can’t get too excited when you have a good game and can’t get too upset about a bad game.”
 
His manager concurs, but feels the Miller is off to a good start.
 
“He’s handled himself good,” Mauer added, of Miller. “He needs to learn what it takes to play every day and maintain his strength. It’s going to be a big offseason for him to get bigger and stronger and continue to improve his speed, but he’s been very good for us.
 
“He’s been doing a pretty nice job in the middle of the infield, mostly just shortstop is all that he’s played. He’s learning how to play second and handled himself pretty good there.”
 
Off the field, you are likely to find Miller on a golf course.
 
“I like to play golf,” he said. “I haven’t really got a chance to play too much, lately, but hopefully I’ll get a chance in the offseason.”
 
Miller said he’ll make South Carolina his primary home once the season ends.
 
“I’ll be back and forth between Maryland and South Carolina, but I just kind of wanted to get started and be on my own a little bit.”

September 1st is almost here. The Twins play Houston twice more and then they can have the luxury of an expanded roster going forward. They are certain to recall some players and a couple guys have earned a look with outstanding seasons. There are service time and 40-man roster considerations as well.
 
This year, the Twins are in the wild card chase, so they won't recall young players just to get a look at them or grant playing time to see what they can do. The goal will be to recall players who will help them win games. Here's my thumbnail on the possible call-ups:
 
Pitchers: The Twins probably need fortification of a overused bullpen, even though they already have eight guys pitching out of the bullpen. There are candidates for recall at Rochester.
 
AJ Achter--He's had a good year in Rochester. He provided some innings when recalled by the Twins, although his numbers were skewed by his first couple of outings in blowouts. He's a near certainty to be recalled.
 
Michael Tonkin--He has bounced between Rochester and the Twins, recording very good numbers in Triple A, but not doing enough to stay around with the major league club. Tonkin is a big hard-thrower who should provide strikeout potential. I'm sure he'll get yet another shot next month, but so far his development has been a disappointment.
 
Alex Meyer--Bust? Maybe, but he has put together a pretty good stretch out of the bullpen for the last three weeks. Since August 1st, he has allowed only two runs in 16 innings, walking seven, while fanning 14. Meyer has a big fastball and potential to develop other plus pitches. If the Twins were out of the race, he probably would get a bunch of innings. As it is, he isn't certain of a recall--his overall numbers aren't very good. I think the Twins will recall him and see if maybe something has clicked for the big right hander.
 
JO Berrios--Without question, his possible recall will be the most discussed on this site. Berrios is young, hard-working and has mastered two levels in 150+ innings of work in the minors. He has been exclusively a starting pitcher, but could be used as a key bullpen piece because of the number of innings his young arm has thrown. Business considerations are also present for Berrios. He isn't on the 40-man roster and adding service time now may cost the Twins money and a prime season from a guy who might become an ace. Finally, and this is my opinion, it would be nice to reward someone who has had a great minor league season, on the verge of dominant. I think the Twins will resist recalling Berrios for business and innings reasons, but if injury or ineffectiveness (I'm looking at you Ervin Santana!) present a clear role for him, they will call up their top pitching prospect.
 
Position Players: The Twins have operated most of the second half with a three-man bench, hardly the optimum number of bench players. Certainly they will add a couple of hitters, looking for someone to provide a long ball or key pinch hit. Playing time on the field could be tough to get, especially with Aaron Hicks due to return from the disabled list on September 3rd.
 
Kennys Vargas--Vargas has had a disappointing year, starting the season as the Twins' DH, but not holding the job. He has been demoted twice, the second time to AA. The numbers aren't dominant, but Vargas has done well since his second demotion. There is clearly a need for a pinch-hitter with power potential and Vargas would be the first candidate for that spot. Kennys would also be a near-lock to be on the 25-man roster if the Twins squeak into the playoffs. I expect Vargas on the bench for the Twins game on Tuesday vs. the White Sox.
 
Oswaldo Arcia--Similar story to Vargas. He didn't set the world on fire or address his weaknesses while starting the season as the Twins' left fielder. Disabled, then demoted, he has failed to thrive. One hot streak has been overwhelmed by terrible offensive numbers. We don't know if the problem is physical or mental, but right now Arcia can't help the contending Twins to win games. I can't see him being recalled.
 
Danny Santana--Yet another young Twins starting position player who disappointed if not outright failed for the major league team. Santana has been demoted twice and is more than holding his own as a Triple A player. He provides the Twins with some versatility (shortstop and center field) and a viable pinch running option. Santana should be back on September 1.
 
Josmil Pinto--The sad story of 2015 just might have a better ending. Pinto was injured in spring training, optioned to Rochester to "get work" and then struggled and was injured. The problem was one or more concussions, which could spell the end of his career as a catcher. In the last month, Pinto has finally gotten on the field as a DH, rehabbed in the low minors and come back to Rochester. He hit a grand slam the other day and if his hitting has recovered, he could be another bench bat. I don't know if the Twins would consider him as a third catcher or not. Regardless, if the offensive part of his game is healthy, Pinto has shown he can be a big-league hitter. I'm guessing he gets recalled, but won't don the "tools of ignorance" unless there is an emergency.
 
Jorge Polanco--Polanco has had a good year. He has spent the bulk of the season in Chattanooga and shown he can handle AA pitching. He competed well at Triple A and had another cup of coffee with the Twins. Polanco hasn't had a great year defensively. I don't think he profiles as a regular shortstop. As for recall, I don't think it would hurt to have him recalled, but probably only after the Lookouts finish their playoff run.
 
Max Kepler--There is a case for him to be the Minor League Player of the Year for the Twins. He is leading the SL in several categories including the "saber triple crown" of OBP, Slugging and OPS. Kepler is on the 40-man roster and certainly will be looked at as an option in the outfield next year, especially with the implosion of Oswaldo Arcia. I think that he stays put until the Southern League playoffs are over. Depending on what has happened with the Twins in those couple weeks, perhaps he will get a look at the tail end of the season. As with Berrios, he has earned a promotion based on his performance on the field.
 
To summarize, I think the Twins recall Vargas, Santana, Achter and Tonkin for sure. I think Meyer gets another shot and Pinto (if healthy) is added as well. Polanco and Kepler are added after the AA playoffs. Arcia goes home to heal whatever ails him and Berrios is on standby.

I love baseball. It's the one sport where a nerd, such as myself, can get lost in the numbers and think they know something others do not. What do I (think I) know? Well, if the Twins continue to over-achieve for one or two more weeks, and then merely regress to the team everyone thinks they are...they'll be right in the thick of the Wild Card race come September.
 
I know, I know, I'm either WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC or I'm jinxing it. And if that's the case, I should shut up right now. But just for the sake of adding another blog entry, hear me out...
 
This winter I texted some friends that the Twins "could actually be good this year" based on the logic that the Twins returned a top 5 American League offense plus the eternally youthful Torii Hunter. Also, the pitching had added depth via Ervin Santana. We just needed a "little luck". I was immediately rebuffed and told that I'm always too optimistic about the Twins (I admittedly am). As if on cue, Santana's suspension happened.
 
However, that luck has arrived in the form of timely RISP hitting and Mike Pelfrey. Thus, the Twins now find themselves with a +19 run differential and an expected Win-Loss record of 19-15, which is exactly the record they have YTD. They have scored 4.65 runs per game and have given up 4.09.
 
So what happens if the Twins regress to the team that history and projected statistics say they should be? Fangraphs has them going 58-70 the rest of the way, scoring 4.21 runs per game and giving up 4.67 runs against per game, and finishing with a 77-85 record. Hey, I'll take that after 4 straight 90-loss seasons!!
 
But what if?
 
What if the Twins implement what I'd like to call "The Annexation of Puerto Rico" (thank you Little Giants) and continue to over-achieve for the next couple weeks?! I don't care how they do it. "The Annexation" could be Pelfrey pulling another couple quality starts out his bum or Torii Hunter continuing to defy Father Time. It doesn't matter. IF the Twins add another 3 or 4 games above .500, THEY'RE RIGHT IN IT!!
 
The top AL teams are the Yankees, Tigers, and Royals based on YTD record and projected remaining season, according to fangraphs. Here are their projected records: 88-74, 86-76, and 84-78. Say the Twins rattle off 4 straight and get to 23-15 and then finish with the .451 winning percentage fangraphs says they should , the Twins go 81-81, a mere 3 games behind the Royals.
 
This race is wide open. It's time to implement "The Annexation of Puerto Rico."

I had the pleasure of watching today's game in person at Hammond Stadium, versus the portion of the St Louis Cardinal roster they deemed worth putting on a bus (hint: no stars). This writeup ought to be pretty quick, because it's one of those rare games where the box score plus a little inference pretty much tells you all you need to know.
 
But first, I'll mention that we didn't have tickets to start with, and didn't want to feed the scalpers - but a little bird had told us that tickets get freed up just before most games - seats that are controlled by the two teams (for players' relatives etc) until they are sure they aren't needed. So we got there 2.5 hours early and waited half an hour, and sure enough we wound up getting $29 seats nearly behind home plate on the third base side up near the top. Seems high priced for spring games but the world is like that now. Just a little tip for those of you wanting to attend games.
 

 
Kyle Gibson was as good as his line score would suggest - batters were not able to distinguish his offspeed offerings and were getting fooled by them. Two hits, no runs, four strikeouts, in four innings. A little shaky in the third, followed up by a strong fourth. Very hopeful sign.
 
I've not been a strong proponent of Tim Stauffer when the news broke that the Twins had signed him, and nothing today improved my view on him. He got through his first inning with no drama and three ground balls, but his next two innings showed he was no mystery to the Cardinal batters and they piled up four Very Earned Runs in that span. I thought it was silly to envision him as a competitor for the fifth starter spot - now put him back in low-leverage situations like the Padres had him, is my advice.
 
The rest of the game was your usual parade of relievers, who did OK but nothing great, allowing two more runs in total. The last run was aided by some shoddy left field work by Nunez who allowed an extra base by not being able to decide whether to dive for a flare or not, winding up letting it drop but then not corralling the ball to keep the baserunner from getting to third, whereupon he scored on a sac fly. Bad luck to Fien I guess, but he did allow the first hit legitimately. This run was the one that tied it at 6-6, which was the eventual final score.
 
Conversely the Twins scored 5 early runs, three in the third capped by a Brian Dozier two-run homer to left following a Schafer RBI, and two more in the fourth that drove off starter Carlos Martinez when Suzuki doubled down the third base line. Nice. After that the Card bullpen was effective, though they let in another run in the seventh when Herrmann drove in Argenis Diaz. (I was surprised to see Herrmann playing first after Mauer was lifted, so I guess they really are grooming him to be super-sub, and thus likely to be the 25th man on Opening Day.)
 
Twins fans at Hammond today were outnumbered by Cardinal fans. They were courteous but toward the end of the game the repeated rallies had them cheering their favorites on, and the Twins fans were too "Minnesota Nice" (I guess) to put up much of a fuss.
 
The game ended on Nunez being thrown out at the plate trying to score on a short single to left, having been waved in by coach Glynn. With 2 out and weak hitters now in the lineup it was the obvious call for the situation, as all choices at that point had become low percentage and this was the most entertaining one to try. I saw it as him being out by at least two steps, leaving matters at 6-6, and it being Spring they did not go to extras. Everyone departed in a good mood - perhaps as in soccer, a "friendly" played to a tie.
 

Here is the second half of the new--and I think improved--version of my prospect list. I am listing 25 players plus five honorable mentions. A brief about how the system has really improved: I have been ranking the prospects in the system since 2011 and always paid careful attention to inadequacies at certain positions and even handedness. It is finally the year to announce that the Twins are deep in absolutely everything. But, without further ado:
 
1. Byron Buxton: CF, 12-18-93
2015 start: Chattanooga. It's time for the top prospect to be healthy and dominate. Easy call for a September call-up at the latest.
 
2. Miguel Sano: 3B, 5-3-93
2015 start: Chattanooga. Everything should be aligned for a trip to Minnesota by July.
 
3. Jorge Polanco: SS/2B, 7-5-93
2015 start: Chattanooga. He will be up at some point in 2015 for the Twins. There are decisions that must be made.
 
4. Eddie Rosario: OF/2B, 9-28-91
2015 start: Chattanooga. Will show up with the Twins by September at the latest. This Chattanooga team is going to be quite interesting to start the season!
 
5. Nick Gordon: SS, 10-24-95
2015 start: Cedar Rapids. It's time to see the real deal. The Twins need to push him to full season ball.
 
6. Max Kepler: OF/1B, 2-10-93
2015: Chattanooga. No reason to move him down much on the list. Health is the only real concern, though there are still many things to work out before he is considered a good call-up.
 
7. Adam Walker: RF, 10-18-91
2015 start: Chattanooga. With Kepler, not ready or the majors yet at all. Power potential is significant.
 
8. Amaurys Minier: OF/1B, 1-30-96
2015 start: Elizabethon. He's ready to show off the power potential. The Twins will move slow here, but he could be in AA in two years.
 
9. Travis Harrison: LF/1B, 10-17-92
2015 start: Chattanooga. I have to think he will be primarily a 1B/DH with extra LF duties to keep that option open.
 
10. Levi Michael: SS/2B, 2-9-91
2015 start: Chattanooga. Michael has arrived, finally, and will be filling out the bottom of a potent Chattanooga lineup.
 
11. Lewis Diaz: 1B, 11-19-96
2015 start: GCL. Diaz is an offensive powerhouse. He will light up the GCL.
 
12. Stuart Turner: C, 12-27-91
2015 start: Chattanooga. 2016 Twins roster threat.
 
13. Max Murphy: OF, 11-17-92
2015 start: Cedar Rapids to begin, but could move to Fort Myers.
 
14. Niko Goodrum: SS/3B, 2-28-92
2015 start: Fort Myers for a bit. There is no room for him up in Chattanooga anyway. He needs to get everything together at the plate this year.
 
15. Mitch Garver: C, 1-15-91
2015 start: Fort Myers, but will move up to Chattanooga at some point.
 
16. Aderlin Mejia: IF, 5-12-92
2015 start: Chattanooga as a utility infielder. But he is strong in that role and should start after some of the top prospects move up.
 
17. Engelb Vielma: SS, 6-22-94
2015 start: Fort Myers. He is someone to really watch. If he can continue to develop offensively, he will make it to the big leagues without a doubt.
 
18. Tanner English: CF, 3-11-93
2015 start: Cedar Rapids. Pretty impressive all-around.
 
19. Zach Larson: OF, 10-8-93
2015 start: Cedar Rapids, but will likely move to Fort Myers as part of a wave of promotions in mid-season.
 
20. Dalton Hicks: 1B, 4-2-90
2015 start: Chattanooga, but the roster is pretty full there. He could move back and forth between Chattanooga and Rochester during the year.
 
21. Chad Christensen: Utility, 10-6-90
2015 start: Fort Myers, but will move to Chattanooga as a part of mid-season promotions.
 
22. Danny Ortiz: OF, 1-5-90
2015 start: Rochester. One of the first guys to be promoted to the Twins in case of injury this year.
 
23. Tyler Kuresa: 1B, 11-17-92
2015 start: Cedar Rapids. Could explode this year.
 
24. James Beresford: IF, 1-19-89
2015 start: Rochester. He will be among the first called up for the Twins in case of injury.
 
25. JD Williams: OF, 11-20-90
2015 start: Fort Myers, though he should move up to Chattanooga after some promotions. He still has excellent speed and can be a very good hitter.
 
Honorable mention: Jorge Fernandez (C, 20), Alex Swim (C, 23), Rainis Silva (C, 18), Zach Granite (CF, 22), Trey Vavra (1B/OF, 23)
 
Others who could have made the list include: Jack Barrie, Jason Kanzler, Pat Kelly, Brian Navarreto, and Rafael Valera.
 
What is most interesting about this is just how dominant AA Chattanooga should be. The breakdown goes like this:
 
Rochester will have a bunch of guys like Reynaldo Rodriguez, Nate Hanson, Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer, and Dan Rohlfing filling out much of its lineup. James Beresford and Danny Ortiz will be in the top half of that lineup and will be interesting to watch. Rochester is most likely to benefit from a movement from Chattanooga of some top prospects by June or July. If I was the decision maker, I would probably favor a lineup of Beresford (SS)-Herrmann ©-Ortiz (LF)-Rodriguez (DH)-Hanson (1B)-Rohlfing (RF)-Robinson (CF)-Farris (2B)-Bernier (3B).
 
Chattanooga will be full of top prospects. The OF should start Rosario, Buxton, and Walker. The infield will start with Sano, Polanco, Michael, and Hicks. Stuart Turner will be the main catcher (with Matthew Koch too). There will be a rotation between the OF, 1B, and DH that will get Max Kepler in the vast majority of games, but obviously there is Travis Harrison too. Aderlin Mejia will add utility depth. The lineup there might be something like: Buxton (CF)-Polanco (SS)-Sano (3B)-Walker (RF)-Rosario (LF)-Kepler (1B)-Harrison (DH)-Turner ©-Michael (2B).
 
Fort Myers will feature an infield of Goodrum and Vielma on the left side. Garver will be catching and JD Williams will be in the outfield. Alex Swim will catch and get some OF time as well. Kanzler will be all over the OF as well.
 
Cedar Rapids will be stocked. The OF will have Murphy, English, Larson, and Granite. Gordon, Trey Vavra, and Kuresa will be in the infield, as will Pat Kelly. Jorge Fernandez will be catching.
 
Elizabethon will have Minier, Navaretto, and Valera, but will also be adding some top 2015 draft talent.
 
Finally, the GCL Twins will have Diaz and Barrie, which could be explosive. Rainis Silva will be catching and this team will also be getting 2015 draftees and other players from the DSL.
 
In sum, the Twins position player prospect situation is now a lot different than was pre-2014. The system is now top-heavy for the first time in ages (probably the Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer days). There is both star potential and depth in AA, with mainly only star potential at the lower levels (for now).
 
This concludes the two-part look at Twins prospects. I think there are a lot of names here to follow and readers can try to combine the two lists into one super one if they so desire!

One of the highlights of the off-season for a core of Twins fans is the release of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. Seth Stohs has worked to put together this fantastic book for the last seven years. In 2012, he gave me my first taste of helping with the book. By 2013, I was writing an article for the annual and for the last three years I have been among a trio of writers that includes Jeremy Nygaard, Stohs, and myself.
 
In the first part of my top 30 list there are a core of young pitchers moving through the system. The second part of my list includes a surprise or two but there are some powerful prospects. I have some differences compared to the other authors but that's what makes this fun. To see their top 30's, you're going to have to go and pick up a copy for yourself.
 

***Get your copy of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook now (
Paperback or PDF). Use the code: TREAT before the end of the year for 25% off the print version***

 
1 – Byron Buxton – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rock Cats
2014 Stats: .234/.307/.395, 4-2B, 2-3B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 6 SB
Buxton entered the 2014 season as the consensus top prospect in all of baseball. He suffered multiple injuries and was limited to just 31 games. This still takes nothing away from what his potential could be. His combination of speed, power, and hitting could result in him being a perennial All-Star and the player that leads Minnesota out of the bottom of the American League. However, he's going to have to avoid the injury bug because he can't afford another lost season.
 
2 – Miguel Sano – 3B – Did Not Play
2014 Stats: DNP
Sano didn't play in 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery during spring training. There was a chance that he would make his debut in 2014 but now he will have to show he is ready for 2015. Some questions remain about his long-term defensive position or his ability to make consistent contact as he moves up the ladder. For now, he's still considered elite because of his power potential. If everything goes right, he'll be at Target Field before the end of the year.
 
3 – Kohl Stewart – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels
2014 Stats: 3-5, 2.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 87.0 IP, 24 BB, 62 K
The gap between Stewart and Berrios is small but I give a slight nod to Stewart. He compiled decent numbers at Low-A as a teenager. There were some shoulder issues near the end of the season but I don't think this is going to impact him long-term. As a multi-sport athlete in high school, this was his first full season focusing on baseball. He will continue to rack up innings and figure out the art of pitching. He has the chance to be a future ace.
 
4 – Jose Berrios – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rock Cats, Rochester Red Wings
2014 Stats: 12-8, 2.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 140.0 IP, 38 BB, 140 K
Berrios had the best season of any player in the Twins farm system. Even though he is small is stature, he has the work ethic to mold himself into a top-notch big league pitcher. His fastball can hit into the mid-90s and his secondary pitches continue to improve. He pitched out of his mind this past season so it will be interesting to see where he starts in 2015 and how fast he gets to the big leagues. There's no reason to rush him but he might force the Twins hand.
 
5 – Nick Gordon – SS – Elizabethton Twins
2014 Stats: .294/.333/.366, 6-2B, 4-3B, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 11 SB
Gordon marked the third straight top five pick for the Minnesota Twins with Buxton and Stewart already being featured on this list. He comes from a baseball family as his dad played in the majors and his brother was an All-Star last season. Most reports say he will be able to stay at shortstop for the long-term and he has the potential to be dangerous at the plate and on the bases. He's a long way from Target Field but he could be part of a solid core in the future.
 
6 – Alex Meyer – RHP – Rochester Red Wings
2014 Stats: 7-7, 3.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 130.1 IP, 64 BB, 153 K
There isn't much left for Meyer to do in the minor leagues and it sounds like the Twins might give him the chance to make the Opening Day roster as a bullpen arm. His command wasn't the best this season but he can strikeout a ton of batters. If everything breaks right, he could be a top of the rotation guy or he might end up being a solid bullpen option. The time is now for Meyer.
 
7 – Jorge Polanco – SS – Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rock Cats, Minnesota Twins
2014 MiLB Stats: .288/.353/.395, 23-2B, 6-3B, 7 HR, 61 RBI
2014 MLB Stats: .333/.500/.833, 1-2B, 1-3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI
When the Twins were in a roster crunch, they looked all the way down to High-A to pluck Polanco up to the majors. He saw limited action but showed off some of his skills. He's switch-hitting ability and powerful swing could make him dangerous. There's questions about if he will stay at shortstop but he made improvements at the position throughout the year. He'll need more time in the minors but his make-up will mean he's only a phone call away from being back with the Twins.
 
8 – Trevor May – RHP – Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins
2014 MiLB Stats: 8-6, 2.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 98.1 IP, 39 BB, 94 K
2014 MLB Stats: 3-6, 7.88 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 45.2 IP, 22 BB, 44 K
His big league numbers don't look the greatest but May made some strides in 2014. He lowered his walk rate and posted a better WHIP during his time at Triple-A. After some rough outings in his first handful of appearances, May calmed down a little. He struck out 41 and walked nine in his last seven starts to end the year on a positive note. He'll be in the running for the final rotation spot coming out of spring training and he might be the front-runner at this point.
 
9 – Eddie Rosario – OF/2B – Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rock Cats
2014 Stats: .243/.286/.387, 20-2B, 3-3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 9 SB
Rosario started the year with a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy. Before this season, he had shown the ability to hit at every level. There might have been some issues adjusting to better pitching at Double-A. He put together some impressive numbers in the AFL by hitting .330/.345/.410 with four doubles and two triples. He also stole 10 bases in 14 attempts. Minnesota tried him out at second base for a couple seasons but it looks like he'll have to make the big leagues as an outfielder.
 
10 – Nick Burdi – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels, Ft. Myers Miracle
2014 Stats: 2-0, 2.66 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.1 IP, 10 BB, 38 K
Burdi had to finish up his run through the College World Series before the Twins could get him into action this year. He has all the tools to be a very solid back-end of the bullpen option for the Twins in the very near future. He can hit triple-digits with his fastball and he counters that with a good slider and an occasional change-up. Burdi could debut in 2015 but it might be more realistic to look for him during the 2016 campaign.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

Now that the season has wound down and the Twins have finished their fourth consecutive 90 loss season, it's time to start looking at a plan for 2015. While the 2014 season did not look so great in the record book, there were some very nice building blocks for the team. For one, the offense did quite well. This is especially noteworthy given that at the beginning of the season, the offense was, to put it mildly, horrid. The improvement was generated by seeing a healthy Joe Mauer return to the team and successful debuts of Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas. Oswaldo Arcia was also much better in the second half of the season posting an OPS > .800 in both August and September. While Vargas and Arcia have been personal top 10 prospects of mine, Santana has escaped my radar the last two seasons, and all he did was rake. Two younger players also established themselves as regulars. Brian Dozier followed up his second half spike last season with a sustained effort. While his batting average was lower than most would have liked, his power stats and on base stats were exceptional for a second baseman, and he did it while playing very good defense. Trevor Plouffe also earned a starting job with improvements in both his bat and glove. Overall, he was a top 5-10 3B placing him solidly above average. This bodes well for the future of the club.
 
The pitching side, however, was a disaster. Only Phil Hughes was an above average pitcher. Kyle Gibson did improve significantly posting numbers that would be equivalent to a 4ish starter. Given his age and minor league career, there's a good chance he builds off of this. The team saw debuts for Logan Darnell, Yohan Pino, and Trevor May as well, with May getting the bulk of the starts near the end of the season. May was terrible in August, though he improved to merely bad in September. However, here too there's reason for hope. He kept his K rate over 9 and dropped his walk rate significantly in September, walking only 8 in 5 games while striking out 29. He clearly has work to do, but like Gibson, there's good reason to think that he can take a big step forward in 2015 after his AAA breakout this year. Pino looked like a guy who can be stashed on the 40 man while he has options and brought up for the occasional spot start. Darnell clearly needed more work, but given his K rates both in the minors and in the majors, could amount to something, whether that's with the Twins remains to be seen, especially with what is coming up the pipeline.
 
The peripherals for the team improved as well. In 2013, their Pythagorean record indicated they were significantly worse than their overall record, being bested only by the Astros. In 2014, their Pythagorean record said that the team was better than the record indicated. While that alone doesn't indicate improvement, it does say that lady luck may have played against the Twins a bit this season.
 
That said, it's becoming more clear that ownership wants to see a return to winning. Season ticket sales have been dropping steadily for several years now, and with no all star game to boost them this offseason, the drop off is likely going to be severe. While at this point, there's little to stop the short term losses, a return to respectability is going to be a priority. The following is my plan.
 
I'd start with coaching. I do not agree with the presumption that coaching has little effect in the win column, as a coaches job is to consistently put a team in position to win. Often, this is accomplished through managing egos in the clubhouse, which is very difficult to put a metric on, but the coaching situation involves motivating players, developing younger players, identifying flaws in a player's mechanics that other teams are exploiting, and managing games in such a way to minimize weaknesses and maximize strengths. Given the four consecutive 90 loss seasons, I thin, it's reasonable safe to assume that new voices need to be brought into the organization. As such, I'd suggest that it's time to start cleaning house here. I'd keep Molitor, Cuellar, and Brunanski, but beyond that, I'd retain no other major league coaches. The Twins will likely let Gardenhire stay on another year, but I think it's time for them to find a new voice to manage the clubhouse, and in particular one that is open to many of the new ideas being brought forth by statistics people. Of these three, I'd promote Molitor to the manager role, if he were inclined to take it. If he were not, I'd consider going after Joe Maddon or an external candidate, likely paying very close attention to the Cardinals or Rays organizations. I'd also bring up Doug Mientkewitz from the minor league staff and possibly Jake Mauer to fill position roles. I'd also look outside the organization for remaining vacancies.
 
Player moves are a bit more difficult to do, as free agency does not appear to have what the Twins most likely need. The Twins are also in an odd situation where keeping many of the players that they currently have would be in their best interest, as many of these guys will likely play a role in the future. While the offense was good, the Twins were hurt by poor defensive play, due to playing players out of position and playing players who just could not defend. The goal in 2015 is to improve here. Let's start with the guys who aren't going anywhere:
 
1B - Mauer - 23M/yr. As a catcher, Mauer might have some demand. As a 1B, he has very little. He rebounded quite nicely the second half and looked more like his old self. Bottom line though, he's not going anywhere. His defense at first should improve, though he was hardly the problem when it came to bad defense.
 
2B - Dozier. In 2014, Dozier established himself as a member of the next wave. While his batting average was a bit low, he showed exceptional plate discipline as well as some much needed power for the organization. He is one of only a handful of Twins to have a 20/20 season, and for a while there was some thought that he could have 30/30 season. To add to it, he played defense at a nearly elite level. He's arbitration eligible in 2016. Given the situation, I think the most prudent course of action is to work out a contract extension with Dozier over the offseason. He has four years of team control, so the team could likely work out a 5 or 6 year deal. I would attempt to sign Dozier to a 5 year, 30M contract with a 6th year team option of 10M, with a 1M buyout. This would lock him up for his most productive years and keep him relatively easy to trade should another 2B prospect step up.
 
RF - Arcia. Arcia really improved his offense in the second half of this season. His overall numbers, however, were not terribly impressive. What Arcia has shown is that he can hit. His problems deal with a swing too often mentality as well as defense. Given the improvement on the offense, I'd recommend that he spend a lot of time this offseason working on his defensive skills, noting that a step forward in 2015 would likely earn him a very nice contract that offseason.
 
C - Suzuki/Pinto. Signed for another 2 years, Suzuki is not going anywhere. I would, however, plan on Pinto being his primary backup as well as occasional DH and maybe some OF duties to keep his bat in the lineup. I'd let Pinto know that he should be working on taking a few fly balls in the offseason to get used to some occasional time in the OF and that he will be catching 60-80 games next year should Suzuki remain healthy and productive.
 
DH - Vargas. Vargas has a pretty good rookie year and at this point, he's earned the right to break with the 2015 team. While I would not be shocked if he were to struggle (and be sent down) in his sophomore campaign, for the time being, this job is his.
 
3B - Plouffe. He's getting one more year. Sano is going to need time to develop and Ploufe was an above average 3B. I think he stays on the roster for another year and will likely be a trade candidate in the 2015 offseason if Sano develops as hoped.
 
SS - Of the position players, this position is the most difficut to fill. Both Escobar and Santana put up above average numbers for the SS postion, though Santana put his up primarily in CF. While I like Santana as a long term solution, his numbers were inflated by a very high BABIP and a K rate that says he's going to come crashing back down to earth. On the flip side, he certainly earned a job to start. The problem as I see it is that his future is at SS, and from what I've read, he needs some work on his defense. I'd dangle Escobar this offseason to see if he could fetch something of value, as he too deserves to be a starting SS, however, this move comes with some risk, as there really isn't a fall back plan should Santana find he needs some work. I wouldn't trade Escobar unless he brought back something of value. If that were the case, the Twins could move Escobar to a super utility role and have Santana starting at SS or they could let Santana spend some time in AAA working on his defense.
 
SP - Hughes, Gibson, and May. Each of these guys are staying for various reasons. Hughes had a record breaking season this year. He will be the opening day starter and will remain with the team. Gibson had a pretty good first full season notching a 4.47 ERA in approximately 180 innings. While those numbers are not outstanding by any means, they were above replacement level and should continue to improve with experience. As it is, these numbers are more of a number 4 type starter, and another year should see improvement on all of them. Baring injury, I'd expect Gibson to pitch 200 innings and bring ERA down a bit closer to 4 with a slight rise in the K rate. Trevor May will also return in my plans. While he didn't do as well as I'd have liked in his rookie campaign, he did improve significantly. His break out season in AAA indicates that he has little to prove there, and given his ability to miss bats, he will likely settle in next year and put up much better numbers.
 
RP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, and Pelfrey. While I suspect Pelfrey is going to get every opportunity to start, I don't see may ways for this to happen. I could see arguing that this is a sunk cost, but this isn't how the Twins do things. I suspect Pelfrey will get a shot in the pen. Perkins will remain, and I'd keep Fein and Thielbar around. However, that leaves at a minimum 2 open slots, most likely 3. I'd non-tender Duensing and Swarzack or trade them for whatever I could get. I'd tap internal candidates for these roles giving an open tryout for Tonkin, Guererra, Pressley, Oliveros, Thompson, and Achter.
 
Free agency:
 
I don't see the Twins dipping into free agency that much. This is due to not matching up well with needs. I would make an effort to sign Colby Rasmus to a 1 year deal to play CF. I'd try to get an option out of that deal as well. Rasmus would provide a bridge to Hicks/Buxton.
 
Trades:
 
First big trade:
 
I think trades make a lot more sense to the Twins this offseason as there are some teams that match up a bit better. The LA Dodgers are a big one with 3 expensive contracts in their OF, a cheap option in Puig who isn't going anywhere, and some nice prospects coming up through their system. I'd target Matt Kemp, who put together a decent season but isn't worth the 21 M they are paying him over the next 5 years. The Twins need a LF, there's no replacement in the near term. Kemp played CF, puts up better than average numbers with the bat and should be average or better in a corner defensively. Given his contract, the Dodgers won't be getting much for him unless they kick in a large portion of this salary. Given the Twin's youth movement, they should have cash for the forseable future as their payroll will largely drop. This won't hurt their future, though it could potentially hamstring some free agency moves if Kemp were to suddenly stop playing well. That said, he's 29, so he should be able to be productive through the remainder of his contract, just not to the value of his contract. I'd attempt to dangle Escobar or Nolasco plus maybe a C prospect to bring Kemp over to MN.
 
The second trade I'd attempt to make is to add some higher ceiling pitching to the team. The problem as I see it is that finding this type of talent is pretty difficult to do. Two teams looking to be making some moves would be the Diamondbacks and the Reds. The problem, however, is that I don't see the Twins having what it would take to get a guy like Archie Bradley or Robert Stephenson. Both of these guys would be insanely expensive, and there's no chance either team would let someone like that go without acquiring something of equal value. I don't see the Twins dangling Buxton or Sano for one of these guys, so in reality, I don't see it happening. Perhaps AZ might be willing to deal as they showed a willingness to deal Trevor Bauer to Cleveland, but given their play this year, and their need for pitching at the major league level, trading one of their 3 top 100 prospects playing in the high minors makes very little sense. In the end, I don't see this happening unless the Twins are completely sold on Plouffe.
 
 
 
 
Minor league moves.
I'd send Rosario, Sano, Berrios, Burdi, and Buxton to AA with the hope that each could earn a midseason promotion. Meyer would start in AAA, and I'd expect him to be called up at some point in the season.
 
 
Final Roster
C - Suzuki/Pinto
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier
3B - Plouffe
SS - Escobar (if no trade is made)
LF - Kemp
CF - Rasmus
RF - Arcia
 
BN - Pinto, Beresford (utility), Schaffer (4th OF), Nunez, Parmelee
 
SP - Hughes, Gibson, May, Nolasco, Millone
 
BP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, Pelfrey, Tonkin, Pressley, Oliveros, and Guerrera,

The other day, I was watching Moneyball, one of my favorite films. My favorite scene is when Billy Beane is in the room with a bunch of scouts saying the team should sign a bunch of questionable players. His response, as I'm sure most of you know, to all the criticisms he receives is "He gets on base." This got me thinking, how important is it to get on base?
 
Using Fangraphs, I collected a bunch of data from last season, focusing on the team as a whole rather than individual stats. My goal was to see which aspects of hitting (OBP, OPS, wOBA, etc) had the largest impact on the number of runs the team scored. Some of the stuff I found seemed obvious, other stuff was quite surprising.
 
For each statistic I ran a linear regression between total runs(y) and that statistic(x). I have reported the slope and correlation coefficient for each one:
AVG: slope=4.76(r=0.81)
OBP: slope=4.96 (r=0.89)
SLG: slope=2.91(r=0.90)
OPS: slope=2.04(r=0.94)
wOBA: slope=5.00(r=0.94)
BB%: slope=4.18(r=0.48)
ISO: slope=2.87(r=0.60)
HR: slope=1.47(r=0.53)
SB: slope=-0.08(r=-0.03)

It comes as no surprise that wOBA has both the strongest correlation and the most runs per percentage point of all the statistics I looked at. If anything, all this means is that wOBA truely is a great way to measure offensive value. In addition, the fact that OBP has a slightly larger impact than AVG indicates that getting on base via BB, HBP, Error, FC, etc. does create more run-scoring opportunities. However, the correlation between BB% and total runs was quite weak. Now that I think about it, this may be because a team can walk less and hit more and still recover their OBP, so this is really no different than AVG having a lower r-value than OBP. I'm surprised that SLG and OPS have a smaller impact than AVG and OBP, but I think this just exposes the weakness of those stats compared to wOBA. The fact that ISO has such a weak correlation with total runs further emphasizes that hitting for extra bases does not tell you as much as simply getting on base. I figured ahead of time that using HR and SB would provide weak correlations since they are counting stats, but it was interesting to see there is no correlation whatsoever between stolen bases and total runs scored.
 
I guess I didn't really learn all that much from doing this, but I can say the simple act of getting on base is more important to scoring runs than the business of how one gets on base (OBP vs AVG or BB%), and that wOBA is an awesome and useful statistic. So I guess Billy Beane was right, if a player gets on base, he's worth having on your team.
 
I'm new to Twins Daily and this is my first blog post! I love numbers but I also love the other aspects of the game, so as I continue to publish I promise not everything will be quite this dry
 
Thanks for reading and feel free to share your own thoughts and analysis!