Elliot

I am firmly in the camp of being competitive year to year. I consider a 101 win season a success. A championship is great, but it cannot be bought or guaranteed. It takes a combination of a good team and, to some extent, good luck. Buxton’s and Cron’s injuries and Pineda’s foolishness fall in the “bad luck” category. The unexpected emergence of Arraez is good fortune. Give me a team that year in and year out is very competitive, and with the right breaks is capable of going a long way, and I am a happy fan. Winning a World Series is great, but it does not buy a pass from expectations in the subsequent years. I know others view this differently and are all in for a championship. I just doubt that if that happens they would be content if the price was a few years of non-competitive teams. Note that I said if. It doesn’t have to be that way.

I have a running list of the top 20 FA from prior years that includes who signed them, for how much, and how long. I always review it as teams move into the FA frenzy. In general, it appears that the yearly tally is about 80% of the contracts fall into the regrettable or forgettable category. This appears to be especially true for pitchers with long term deals. Since 5 years seems to be the length many commenters want to use for spending “billionaires” money; I thought looking back at the 2015 FA class might be enlightening. Here they are in descending order of rank, with yrs/avg salary Pitchers: Greinke (6/34) Price (7/31) Cueto (6/22) Kazmir (3/16) Leake (6/16) Lackey (2/16) Chen (5/16) Zimmerman (5/22) Samardzija (5/18). An interesting group not unlike this year’s, with some big names in their prime; a few injury prone but talented arms, some high ceiling potential, and a few playoff tested veterans that would be good for any staff. Non-Pitchers: (Just the top 5) Heyward (8/23) J Upton (6/22) Cespedes (3/25) Gordon (4/18) Davis (7/23). In retrospect, a disaster. Definitely not what it looked like at the time. Appeared to be relatively young players in their prime. 2015 was not an outlier. There were worse years such as 2017 (remember the clamoring for Darvish, Arietta, and Cobb), and better (maybe 2018 but there has to be a touch of buyers remorse already with Machado and Harper). Overall, a cautionary tale. They are not as good as we make them out to be.

The Twins had a good starting rotation throughout 3/4 of the year in 2019. The rotation we saw in the playoffs was a shadow of the one that contributed to a 101 win season. Pineda, at the time the functional ace, was suspended. Berrios, the de facto ace, had run out of gas and was nowhere near the pitcher he had been earlier. Perez had a good run early but had been overexposed. Gibson was sick for almost the entire year, including spring training, but still managed to contribute. I have confidence in the FO. They have shown an ability find quality in the best, but most difficult manner. Rather than chasing big names and throwing $ at past performance, they acquired Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez without mortgaging the future in terms of either money or prospects. I believe that prior to Spring Training they will bring in another arm to fill a role in the rotation w/o giving up significant prospects or spending $20M/yr for 4 or 5 yrs. I am however intrigued with spending bigger $ for a longer period of time for a very good 2 way 3rd baseman.

There is not an unlimited payroll available. The Twins were apparently willing to spend 5 yrs/$100M for Wheeler, but that does not mean there is a similar offer available to throw at whomever is out there. That type of contract would overlap the first big contracts for Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Rosario, May, Duffy ... as well as second contracts for Kepler and Polanco. Future payroll issues are not just based on when players are eligible for free agency, but tie in with deals to buy out arbitration and early free agency. The Twins years of having key contributors on minimum deals are over, at least with this crop. The current roster will increase in cost dramatically over the next few years. Even at a $150M level it will get tougher to retain players, especially if 20% of it is earmarked for a player on a long term $30M deal. Something that is becoming more common across the league is non tendering good young players based strictly on projected arbitration rates, often less than $10M/yr. How do they compete? Berrios becomes an ace, another young pitcher steps up to fill a spot, and Royce Lewis becomes the 3rd baseman. Even larger market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are being driven more and more by young players coming up through the system.

Your infielders all seem to be first basemen. My choice is an infielder that improves the defense, which means first and foremost, getting Sano off third base. I would actually prefer moving both Polanco and Sano to new positions and strengthening SS and 3rd defensively. Those are the type of options I was hoping to see. Unless I am misunderstanding the process and you are planning on looking at each position individually (2nd, SS, and 3rd still to come), I would do a hard pass on all of the options. Sano, Marwin, and the young guys (Railey, Rooker, ...) provide plenty of internal options.

Your infielders all seem to be first basemen. My choice is an infielder that improves the defense, which means first and foremost, getting Sano off third base. I would actually prefer moving both Polanco and Sano to new positions and strengthening SS and 3rd defensively. Those are the type of options I was hoping to see. Unless I am misunderstanding the process and you are planning on looking at each position individually (2nd, SS, and 3rd still to come), I would do a hard pass on all of the options. Sano, Marwin, and the young guys (Railey, Rooker, ...) provide plenty of internal options.

If the Twins are going to be legitimate contenders it will be because Berrios and Odorizzi step forward. That is where the ace and number 2 come from. I have as much confidence in them taking the next step as I do in Wheeler becoming dominant for a full season. I would be happy with Bumgarner or Keuchel, or maybe even Ryu, as a veteran lefty in the rotation. That role is not one that requires a 4 or 5 year commitment that will cause problems with keeping the core together in a few years. If Madbum is open to a 2 or 3 yr deal, heavily front loaded, then I say go for it. If not, wish him well and move on.

To me Buxton is untouchable. His presence seems to make everyone better. That said, I would give any two of our top prospects plus one more throw in for Chapman. That’s a lot, but a young, two way player who is controllable for a few years is worth it. The exception would be if Lewis is a legitimate SS at the MLB level. If so, I pull him back. It probably ends up being Kiriloff and Balazovic/Graterol plus one more.

Suggesting that Sano move across the diamond from third to first is not a criticism. Many players outgrow the left side of the infield and go on to be very effective defensive players. Albert Pujols moved from third early in his career and became a multi gold glove first baseman. Miguel Cabrera made a similar move and had been an average to better than average defensive first baseman early in his career; although age has caught up to him some now. Although both are now DH’s late in their careers, that move was not made in their mid-twenties. Sano was signed as a SS, but that was close to 100 lbs ago. It does however indicate that there is a certain level of athleticism present. The key is to make any change early enough in the offseason for him to be comfortable by opening day. That was the real mistake in the attempted move to right field; a change initiated in spring training. Although I am not suggesting a move to the outfield, I do believe that Sano has the skills that would allow him to be at least an average defensive right fielder; highlighted by an impressive arm. Again, this would assume adequate time for training and adjustment. First base should be a much smoother transition, especially if given the time to adequately learn and become comfortable. In the overall “defensive scheme”, Sano as an average first baseman is far more valuable than Sano as a below average third baseman. That being said, I do believe that he has the potential to be above average defensively at first base.

I do back into parking spots. I am not impressed with weather reports more than a day or two out. And I can’t shake the thought that when all is said and done, the Twins will pay more and get less than they would have with Gibson.

$35 M/yr for the first 2 or 3 years of Cole is a lot, but doable. The final 5 yrs of $35M could devastate the franchise. That is over 25% of their projected annual team salary, and would coincide with the implementation of possible extensions for Sano, Berrios, Buxton, May, Duffy, Rogers ... I would rather see them trade a low to mid level prospect to Boston for David Price (provided his arm health checks out initially) plus a good prospect. Eat the entire salary. Boston is desperate to save Betts and parting with Price and/or Sale is almost the only way.

$35 M/yr for the first 2 or 3 years of Cole is a lot, but doable. The final 5 yrs of $35M could devastate the franchise. That is over 25% of their projected annual team salary, and would coincide with the implementation of possible extensions for Sano, Berrios, Buxton, May, Duffy, Rogers ... I would rather see them trade a low to mid level prospect to Boston for David Price (provided his arm health checks out initially) plus a good prospect. Eat the entire salary. Boston is desperate to save Betts and parting with Price and/or Sale is almost the only way.

Boston is a great cautionary tale. Price and Sale were the perfect examples of spend big on starting pitching both in terms of $ and prospects. I think they then felt compelled to resign Sale to a large extension, but I may be wrong. Neither was a complete bust. However; their huge contracts, along with the FA deal for JD Martinez will now probably cost them Mookie Betts unless they can essentially pay someone to take Price or Sale off their books. I totally endorse the shorter term front loaded approach that provides some control over payroll and gives you a few years of the prime of a player without the tail end of grossly overpaying. Just a slight detour, but the Twins employed a similar approach with both Torrey Hunter and Johan Santana. We tend to forget that both had signed and completed large contracts (I think 4 yr $40M) prior to leaving in FA. We got the best of their careers without the long term baggage.

Three thoughts. First, catchers put too much confidence in their protective equipment. There are far more tag plays and potential for collisions at second base. The reason there are fewer collision injuries is that middle infielders know better than to try to block or obstruct the base. Second, foul tip concussions are similar to body impact issues in football/hockey. They can be lessened with advances in equipment but they are inherent to the game. Third, I am not ready to put Garver in the Joe Mauer category as a hitter after one partial year. His 2019 offense was great, but was clearly an outlier based on past performance. I have a strong suspicion that over a full year of daily play and exposure he will come back to earth. That said, I think he will remain an above average hitting catcher, but probably not when compared to first basemen/DH’s across MLB. Leave him behind the plate unless his defense, or lack thereof, dictates otherwise. That is where his greatest value lies.

Versatility is great, but an above average SS or catcher doesn’t get moved around. This is especially true if they possess starter quality offensive skills. A well below average offensive player needs defensive versatility to stick in the majors. Unless Lewis shows himself to be below average as a SS without reasonable expectation for improvement, I would give him all the reps possible there. The other exception is the appearance of a better SS option. As of now that is not the case or likely in the foreseeable future. Another possibility for improvement of the infield defense is to greatly upgrade the third base defense to help cover some range and arm concerns with Polanco. If that is the plan I can get behind a Lewis move to third.

If his main SS competition is Polanco, I keep him at short. If the Twins sign or trade for a competent defensive SS, then I move him to third. The only way I see him in CF is if Buxton suffers another injury, admittedly not unlikely.

Infield defense focuses first and foremost on shortstop. When Polanco was signed originally, the concern was whether or not he would ever hit. Seemed his defense was his strength. Now I don’t think he will ever be even an average MLB shortstop defensively. I would like to see Polanco and Arraez filling 3rd and 2nd (not sure which would be better at 3rd) with Sano moving to first. SS remains an unknown. Lewis??? Adrianza??? Gordon (doubtful defensively)??? Some FA or trade?? Biggest question of the offseason.

Just read a BR report on the top 10 FA starting pitchers. The 3 Twins FA’s are all listed in the 5 thru 10 range. For those insistent on a complete overhaul, the question is, “where will you find someone better”? 6 or 7 years at $200M+ for Cole isn’t happening. 5 yrs at $120m for Wheeler or MadBum isn’t likely either. How happy should we all be that we didn’t get Darvish? Gibson and Pineda are the type of arms that can be gotten on decent deals. I think they will have to overpay to get Odorizzi back, but I think they should I hope the bring 2 or 3 of them back and pull off a trade for a younger arm (Rosario as a centerpiece). Their biggest shortcoming is not pitching, but infield defense followed by the ability to score runs other than via HR.

In many cases the pitchers weren’t optioned to Rochester due to performance but to get a fresh arm. Particularly true with minor league starters being used as relievers in MLB. They can’t be counted on to pitch every other day as most experienced relievers can. Citing those roster moves as indicators of poor performance gives an unfairly negative perspective.

One of my he problems with big name players is that we tend to remember what they have done in the past and equate it to present value. The role of the FO is to determine what value they bring in the window of control; just a couple of months for many of these players. Same issue is there in FA. The mistake is to pay now for past performance rather than reasonable expected future results. Couple this with the uncertainty of prospects and it gets very difficult. Of the prospects mentioned in the rumors and discussions, most will not be stars, and many will never see MLB. No one knows which will be which. So the FO makes their best guess in hopes of giving a career minor leaguer for a Justin Verlander type of ace. That would be great, but the outcome with biggest impact is trading the next Kepler/Rosario/Berrios/Garver/Polanco for a couple of months of someone living on past performance. Then we get to see the bad results for years (Capps and Ramos).

(not sure of numbers too lazy to verify, but they are close) Twins with Byron Buxton, 52 wins 23 losses (.693). Twins w/o Byron Buxton 7 wins 14 losses (.333). I know, SSS ... but it sure seems as if what he brings to the team far exceeds what the numbers would seem to say. Very important extension, with the caveat that he has missed 20% of the games ytd.

2019 is really all about Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler etc. The Twins need to find out if this wave is actually who they thought they were or if 2018 was what the future holds. If they do become the solid core that management hoped for, they are far enough along that consideration needs to be given to near future arbitration costs and long term contracts. To a lesser degree the same thought applies to Garver, Austin, Cron, and many of the younger bullpen arms. Finding out about these players does not preclude being competitive in 2019, but this year's decisions should all be made in the context of the player development. The process probably does discourage long term commitments to aging veteran FA's. The last thing they should be doing is creating a situation in 2020 or 21 in which the ability to lock down young stars to long term deals is hindered due to prior financial decisions. That concept probably excludes Ottavino at 3/27M. Passing on Allen at 1/9M would be less of a financial decision and more a fit or ability call. I expect the Twins to make another move or two on one year deals for pitchers (starters or relievers); or possibly 2 yrs at the most. I really do not care if they are at 71% or 100% of average payroll in 2019. I am much more concerned about the quality of the team long term. If Sano, Buxton, and others put it all together and they are competitive come June or July they will have the financial flexibility to make some targeted in season moves to improve and compete.

1. Defense 2. Defense 3. Defense It starts up he middle. Catcher will be improved with the return of Castro and growth of Garver. Centerfield specifically, and the outfield overall, is buoyed by the return of Buxton. Molitor needs to resist the urge to be impressed by early ST success and keep Buxton hitting 8th or 9th for at least the first half of the season. The biggest challenge is SS and 2nd base; and the infield overall. Infield defense starts with SS. I don't think Polanco is the SS of a successful major league team. However; he has certainly shown much more offensively that most expected, so there is a place for him. It appears that the Twins believe that Lewis can be an MLB SS, but that is probably not until 2020 at the earliest. They need a solid defensive SS on a short term deal; preferably a veteran that can add a little stability to the clubhouse (Iglesias???). Sano should not be at 3rd, but I still have faith that he can return to his early offensive success at 1B or DH. Along with Austin, Grossman, and an occasional Kepler appearance at first, they should be set at the 1B/DH slot (if Mauer returns he bumps Grossman). That leaves 2nd and 3rd base. My first preference is Polanco at 3rd and Forsythe at second on a one year deal. If Gordon can beat him out so be it. If Polanco cannot play third then he becomes part of the 2nd base mix. FA NOTE- it is not only the Twins, but the FA route overall in MLB is a crapshoot at best. Last offseason these pages were filled with passionate pleas for the FO to sign a starting pitcher; generally for somewhere in the 4 year $70M range. The names varied, but it was almost always Lynn, Cobb, Arietta, or Darvish at half again as much. Falvine suceeded in getting Lynn at a steal which was still too much. And he may have been the best of the group. Year in and year out it is the same story. Hope that you are the one in 10 that strikes gold in the FA market, and not part of the 90% that gets burned badly. The risk of course is that unlike the Red Sox/Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs, a miscalculation on a long term contract that pays out $20M/yr can devastate a team like the Twins.

Buxton - bring him up. He has shown that he can dominate AAA; both in the past and with this latest run. Find out if it works at the MLB level; at least in September. Mauer- help him decide to retire. The 1B/DH role is too valuable to fill with Joe. They need to find out what they have with Austin, Rooker, Vargas, Raley, ... not to mention the Sano/Kepler option in that role.

Late season promotions at the AA or AAA level often have to do with playoffs. Apparently not an issue this year, other than maybe preventing promotions from high A to AA. The big issue now will probably deal with offseason status in regards to 40 man roster, rule 5 draft eligibility, and minor league free agent standing. Moves like Kohl Stewart over Stephen Gonsalves are less about who deserves the promotion and more about a prospects future. Gonsalves is not going anywhere unless it is part of a trade. He is on the 40 man and not a milb FA. Stewart was rule 5 eligible last year but had not shown enough to be selected. Probably not the case this year. They need to find out what the have with him. Don’t count on seeing anyone brought up for a September look if they are not already on the 40 man or have to be added this winter. Also be aware that they starting of the major league clock is a big issue as well. As much as I would like to see what Lewis, Rooker, or Kirilloff could do against MLB pitching, it is not going to happen. As painful as it will be to watch Stewart, Slegers, Enns, Littel ... take their lumps, it is proabably the smart route for those that need to make offseason decisions.