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d-mac

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Everything posted by d-mac

  1. d-mac
    Yeah, a 36% K-rate in AAA basically prevents him from having any major league success. That's a high K% than Sano's career rate in the majors.
  2. d-mac
    Well, that's a bummer. I've thought in past situations with TJ surgeries, players going on the 60-DL stayed on all off season.
  3. d-mac
    As far as players I'd non-tender: Santiago, Plouffe, and Milone. Pre-arb players I'd dump: Albers, Dean, O'Rourke, Landa (He's a 22 year old reliever in High-A with a sub 2 K:BB ratio.) Keep: Centeno (we need the depth and he's proven to be a decent ML back-up), DSan (He's not valuable, but I don't see any reason to dump him until we need the roster spot), and Randy Rosario (I'd give him one more year to see how he comes back from TJ, but I'm not super high on him- K:BB ratios are not inspiring). Keep in mind that we won't need 40-man spots for Hughes or Perkins until they are ready to come off the 60-DL. Which might not be until next spring. So that's 10 open spots, with DSan and Randy Rosario pretty easy decisions to remove if needed.
  4. d-mac
    No doubt that affected his swing all year. I'd like to see what he can do if he gets that wrist fully healed.
  5. d-mac
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=863fYC-Mb_Q
  6. d-mac
    I think you vastly underestimate how often top picks reach the majors and make contributions. From 2002-2009 all first round picks (including the first round supplemental picks) reached the majors 64-82% of the time. Going earlier than 2002, most first rounders reached the majors at about 55-65%. Nearly every top ten pick at least gets a cup of coffee. Heck, since nearly every first round has 40+ picks when including the supp round, if the 20th pick doesn't reach the majors that's a bad pick. 73% of all #6 picks have reached the majors (78% if you remove the three most recent #6's.) and average 14 career WAR per major league player. There is a reason why Andrew Miller was seen as a draft bust.
  7. d-mac
    What in the world did the Twins do to him? His swing looked quite a bit better as an amatuer than now.
  8. d-mac
    Well, it's better than his current career trajectory.
  9. d-mac
    FWIW, in the 8 games since being sent back to AAA Buxton is hitting .222/.300/.370 in 30 PA with a 1/5 BB/K ratio. I think the Kepler vs. Buxton comparison is quite enlightening. It highlights how important plate discipline is for a hitter to have success at the major league level and how much the prospect gurus are willing to overlook such a major flaw in a hitter.
  10. d-mac
    Podcast? I don't have time to listen to that, so I'll just take your word for it. lol
  11. d-mac
    This x1000. Jay still has the potential to be a quality starting pitcher. But he likely won't help the Twins until 2018-2019 at the earliest.
  12. d-mac
    I haven't seen this anywhere. Do you have a direct quote? If he did indeed say that, that is huge.
  13. d-mac
    I think the Twins are trying to force him to be something he's not- an extreme groundball pitcher. He's got good secondary pitches, the team needs to let him run a bit with two strikes on a hitter. Use the plus slider and solid changeup to put away hitters, both of those pitches generate a ton of swinging strikes and groundballs for him. No more of this repeatedly throwing two-seamers in two strike counts crap. He doesn't command that pitch well and neither of his fastballs generate swinging strikes. His stuff will lead to a high GB% on its own. No need to force it.
  14. d-mac
    The outlook for Twins pitching is really depressing. Meijia is looking like a potential mid-rotation starter and Gonsalves could be pretty good, but the prospect gurus don't like him all that well. His numbers say otherwise, so we'll see. At this point Stewart is a massive bust and I'm not particularly high on Jorge as his K/9 rates are pretty mediocre. The jury is still out on Jay at this point, he was solid given his transition before his injury. We'll have to wait and see how he recovers. Romero is pitching decently, but at this point he's likely 2 or more years away and I definitely would not give him front of the rotation starter hype yet. At this point his numbers are more mid-rotation variety. I was pretty much on board the Thorpe hype train before his injury, but he'll likely not pitch again until next year. That'll be two full seasons of not pitching. It's pretty difficult to see how he'll bounce back from this. This is why the Twins need to give May and Duffy one more full year of starting to see what they have. They need to trade Dozier for starting pitching. They should have traded Santana at the deadline since he is rapidly approaching 35 and it's unlikely the twins will be contending during his last few productive years.
  15. d-mac
    Stewart is actually pitching worse than Blackburn or Gibson in the minors. Gibson had/has a plus slider and averaged about 8.5 K/9 and Blackburn walked fewer batters.
  16. d-mac
    Typically, if your top ten pick turns out to only be a reliever, it's usually a bust.
  17. d-mac
    eyeroll.gif
  18. d-mac
    Grossman just lacks range and his arm is about average for LF. He makes all of the plays he should. DRS hates him. UZR thinks he's bad, RZR rates him as below average, and Inside Edge actually likes him. So I tend to think of him more as a below average, Cuddyer-like defender, not much range, but makes all the plays he should, but without Cuddyer's arm. Which is fine for LF, if we've got a plus defender in CF and an above average RF.
  19. d-mac
    Really, the decision to move Suzuki should have been done independent of market conditions for catchers. He's an impending free agent having a good year on a non-contending team. Those are no-brainer type moves. He wouldn't have brought much in July, but without a doubt more than he'd bring back now, and moving him now would still be better than letting him walk for nothing in the offseason.
  20. d-mac
    Possibly, but he didn't walk much or hit for any power. I would have left him in the GCL for the rest of the year.
  21. d-mac
    I think you are reading far too into this. All I'm saying the return Suzuki would have gotten in July, would be greater than he'll get now in August due to the nature of the waiver system. Not to mention that there is less time left in the season to provide value to the acquiring team.
  22. d-mac
    Any team that claims a player, basically has the selling team as a captive customer. They can offer very little and the seller can either accept it or pull the player off waivers. Lack of competition limits return. It's like Econ 101.
  23. d-mac
    I guess I missed that Ben Rortvedt was promoted to E-town. He wasn't exactly knocking the cover off the ball in the GCL.
  24. d-mac
    Really, the August waiver trading period is for trading players like Milone or Nolasco, and possibly Plouffe because they'd likely pass through waivers. Players like Suzuki, Kintzler, and E Santana would likely be claimed, meaning any return would be very minimal. WHICH IS WHY YOU TRADE THESE PLAYERS IN JULY!
  25. d-mac
    This is likely the only scenario in which we'd get out of Mauer's contract. He isn't going to be traded. Nor claimed on waivers.
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