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gagu

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  1. gagu
    I think the Altuve comparison has some merit. He did make the All-Star game in 2012 in his age 22 season, but the numbers weren't that great. He slashed .290 .340 .399, compared to Arraez's .354 .419 .457, albeit in 285 less at bats. Altuve was also a defensive liability and played only one position. Altuve had a -1.5 dWAR in 2012, Arraez is currently at a -.09 dWAR. Altuve's OPS dropped to .675 in the second half, .672 in September. Arraez is having his best month in September with a 1.076 OPS. Altuve's defense improved in 2013, but his offensive production didn't change, arguably dropped, .316 .363 .678. It wasn't until his age 24 season that he became a true star. Not saying Arraez is the next Altuve, but it is food for thought.
  2. gagu
    Regarding the announcers; I can only speak to the broadcasters.I think there's a place for reasonable pronunciation. Arraez doesn't need much, if any,of a tongue roll. While being in Chile the last 20 years affects my perspective, I'm also a curmudgeon. Jon Miller used to drive me crazy with his over-the-top Hispanic pronunciations. It turned into a schtick. But it goes both ways. We would all crack up if an announcer had referred to Ivan DeJesus as eye-vin dee-gee-juss. It least I would. Anyway, I think it makes sense for a TV or radio guy to get the basics. Double r's are more like l's, and z's sound more like s's. Arraez can simply be pronounced alise. That works well enough. Arise is not Arraez. It just isn't. As to Arraez the player; I agree with everything you wrote. I'd add that like Astudillo, he seems to have a rare combination of baseball IQ, instincts, and awareness. He's in the game. He thinks out of the box to to get an edge. Couple that with the natural abilities you referred to and I think we can expect sustained success.
  3. gagu
    A very respectable list, but Astudillo will not be denied. He proved again tonight how valuable he is in the clutch. Tortuga in, Miller out. Adrianza maybe has a shot to displace Schoop. The pitchers all make sense. I'd bet on Graterol being strong. Littell is the best bet for a spot that may go to the pitcher with the hottest hand in late September. Of course everything changes if there are injuries. Anyway, at this point in time, choosing the roster is more about deciding on which options are better than the others rather than which options are less bad than the others. That's a very nice luxury.
  4. gagu
    The 5-game ALDS series roster formation is the question here. Rosters are reformulated after each series. A roster vs the Astros may be tailored differently than vs the Yankees. Some teams run with three starters in a 5-game series and some continue with it throughout the post-season. In '87 and '91, they had Viola, Blyleven, and Straker; and Morris, Tapani, and Erickson pitching on three days rest in each series.Last season in the playoffs, the only teams using a pitcher or pitchers with 3-days rest were the Braves in the NLDS and the Brewers in the NLCS. Both clubs were eliminated. The '19 Twins starting staff isn't set for that. Barring injury, it's pretty much a lock the Twins will roster four set starters. Last season, the eight teams in the divisional series' went three different routes, with 11, 12, or 13 man pitching staffs. Barring an injury to a rostered player, Graterol won't be eligible for the post-season if he isn't added to the 40-man roster by midnight on Saturday. With the one open spot lingering, it makes me wonder if the team is still weighing options on post-season scenarios. Graterol, Alcala, Gordon, Miller? Anyway, while I love the speculation here, the reality a month from now will tell the tale. Cave would seem like a lock if the playoffs started tomorrow; not a lock in October. The fate of a few relievers could hinge on how well they're throwing at the end of September. The team can roll the dice on a hot hand for a 5-game roster. As for Schoop being a near lock because he's played so much, it isn't written in stone. 30-game starter Chase Anderson was left off the Brewers roster last October. In 2016, the Cubs dropped 15-game winner Jason Hammel and Joe Szczur, and Tommy La Stella was left off the NLCS roster. That's off the top of my head.
  5. gagu
    As of the 7th, Stathead has the Twins odds of making the post-season at 98.5%, and of winning the division at 80.3%. For CLE, it's 78.6% playoffs, 19.7% division. While I think the numbers are too high, Minnesota is in the drivers seat. With the remaining schedule difference, the Indians probably need to win 7, maybe 8, of the 10 head-to-head match ups. Whatever happens, I'm excited about the future.
  6. gagu
    Dallas is just down the road in the Texas sense. About 220 miles. After that, KC is the next closest at 650 miles. Milwaukee is 300 miles from Target Field, with Chicago's two teams at a distance of just over 350 miles. That said, I agree with you that location isn't everything. Houston has done a great job of putting their team together.
  7. gagu
    We'll know better after the dust settles...
  8. gagu
    I looked over the transactions list yesterday. Last year there were 18 trades made at the deadline with five on the day before it. More trades one the last day than the six previous days combined. In 2017, it was 15 deadline day trades, with 3 on the 30th. Being anxious for trades is understandable, we all are, but the history is clear that most deals come very late. Ripping on the FO not being aggressive enough this week has gotten old. Plenty of time for that at 3:01 PM if nothing good happens.
  9. gagu
    Agreed. My point is that Miami traded for Diaz and should be able to protect him from the Rule V draft and have room on the 40 man roster to let him stay in the minors. He doesn't need to be ready to be a position player on a 26 man roster all season.
  10. gagu
    But does he have to be a position player on a 26 man roster, all season? The Twins have Gordon on the 40 man roster this season at the same age Diaz will be next season. I'm thinking Miami will have less of a roster crunch next year than the Twins have now. In any case, those 14 extra spots make a huge difference, and I'm pretty confident that Diaz would be picked up if left unprotected.
  11. gagu
    I'd add Tovar to that list. He had a 5-year run in the top 25 in AL MVP voting. In '68, the season he played one inning at each position in a late September game, Tovar put in more than 70 innings in left, center, right, second, short and third. In the Oakland game, he pitched a scoreless 1st, with a K, a walk, and a balk in a 2-1 victory. Quote from Minnesota Twins: The Complete Illustrated History: "Cesar Tovar was a Billy Martin kind of player—scrappy, hustling, able to contribute in a variety of ways on the fieId..."
  12. gagu
    Top 15 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates by Marc Hulet January 27, 2012 5. Robbie Grossman, OF In the field he has a solid skill set for right field, where he should be at least an average defender.
  13. gagu
    I really enjoy and appreciate the prospect articles, Seth. I do have one quibble; Please list each player's age along with the ranking and just generally, especially at the beginning of a new season. Thanks.
  14. gagu
    I had the same problem when my bookmarked Twins scores page turned into their total team's scoreboard page. Just needed to bookmark: https://www.milb.com/scores/twins I'm good to go again
  15. gagu
    Speaking as someone with no practical experience, I'm thinking Harper's release is oddly deceptive and nuanced. He may be able to continue to baffle hitters longer than some expect.
  16. gagu
    IMO, Austin is a legitimate major league player on a team with a roster that can't utilize him well. There are several teams where his skill set would be a better fit. The question in my mind is what is longer-term value. What is his likely upside in the next couple of years. If he truly is a strong breakout candidate, the Twins should be able to find a team willing to give up something of real value. If it comes down to waivers, Austin's upside is probably considered pretty limited by MLB scouts. Even without much upside, I'm thinking that there are other rosters where he could hold a solid spot this season, so a trade would still be in order.
  17. gagu
    A very interesting and informative article. Thanks for doing the grunt work, Greg. I'd like to see a comparison of the semi-contending also-rans. As trade deadline sellers, for a third of the season, the Twins numbers naturally take a hit while the playoff buyers naturally get a boost. While I doubt the difference is considerable, it's one of many variables to consider. In any case, I agree with your main point that the better teams better themselves in part through trades. And a GM doesn't have to be a master of fleecing other teams to succeed. Good deals often help both sides improve.
  18. gagu
    Unless there is a surprise prospect out there, Duran will be in the top 10 along with Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Thorpe, Javier, Rooker, Enlow, and Baddoo. I would rank them in that order, with Duran between Enlow and Baddoo. We'll find that out tomorrow. Raley was listed as an honorable mention.
  19. gagu
    On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.
  20. gagu
    Buxton is just one year out from garnering 18 MVP votes, a 5.2 WAR, and a Gold Glove at a Platinum Glove position at the age of 23. While 2018 was a lost year, he is hardly a lost cause. Buxton doesn't have to fully live up to the expectations of a second-overall pick in order to be a future mainstay with the Twins. That said, he has the tools to fully live up to those high expectations. We saw it in 2017. Fingers crossed here.
  21. gagu
    I'm not sure what the relevance of Buxton vs Hicks in 2019 to the discussion. Hicks is four years older and in his prime. Plus, he began his career at 23. Buxton debuted at age 21. Not being snarky, just saying that I don't get that part. As you are still on the Buxton train, I think we probably agree that in the big picture, Buxton compares well with Hicks. I agree with Nick that it isn't even close. Buxton regressed in his fourth season, but so did Hicks. Hicks WAR after four seasons was 2.0. Buxton is at 6.9, and Hicks was two years older at the time. I'm with you on it being questionable to call Hicks a superstar. His 4.7 WAR last year was impressive but when Buxton put up a 5.2 war in 2017, I think the general consensus was that he looked like a budding superstar. Anyway, an interesting post on an interesting article.
  22. gagu
    I think the main reason he isn't higher at this point is that at 22 years of age, Helman was older than the competition at both E-town and Cedar Rapids. I had him at #35 in mid-August. He hit for average and power, and of his 3 errors he committed in 178 chances, two of them occurred in the lone games he played at SS and in left field. Just one error in 178 chances at 2B. A lot to like, but now he needs to produce against more experienced competition in 2019.
  23. gagu
    An interesting, intelligent blueprint, Tom. I question the Gibson trade. The team should try hard to lock him in at a reasonable price. Easier said than done but on paper today, I'd consider Gibson a guy that could be a suitable #3 starter in a future post-season run. That said, he shouldn't be off the table. But the return on a trade should be somewhat significant. Erceg is Milwaukee's 4th ranked prospect in a system that only has one player in the top 100. I'd want more. Spitballing here, but maybe package Gibson, Gordon, and a teen-ranked prospect for their top prospect, 30th MLB, 23-year-old Keston Hiura. In the reader satisfaction department, my request would be that the age is included when discussing the possible prospects we could trade for. Anyway, thanks for a good, thought-provoking read.
  24. gagu
    I have vacationed in the D.R.and have lived in Chile for 18 years. Leaving a club at 3 AM should not raise eyebrows. While backing over the officer is a strange thing, note that the motorcycles are glorified dirtbikes, not the big Harleys that you see in the states. And odds are that the lighting conditions were poor. With the information given out so far, it doesn't look bad to me. Just my opinion.
  25. gagu
    A good article overall, but I take issue with one statement; "...but Reed showed nothing to indicate he's capable of being any kind of positive contributor." While the jury is out on Reed's future arm issues, he certainly was a positive contributor for the first two months of '18, with an ERA of 3.03 on June 6th after 31 appearances. He was on pace for 81 appearances for the season. He got rocked in his next outing and was shut down for a week. Reed's troubles on paper started on May 29th. He entered the game, his fourth appearance in five days, with a 2.36 ERA. He was nicked with a blown save and his ERA rose continuously through August. In September, he only gave up one run, four hits, and one walk over 5.1 innings. Reed posted a 2.84 ERA over 77 appearances in 2017, and 1.97 ERA in 80 appearances in 2016. He will a 30-year-old next season after seven seasons with 55+ appearances. That said, I'd still argue that there is a reasonable chance that Reed will return to form and be an important contributor in 2019.
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