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Lonestar

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Everything posted by Lonestar

  1. Lonestar
    There's a difference between drafting someone who you think can be the biggest star in the draft and someone who you think will be the biggest star. Hunter Green CAN BE the biggest star in this draft. If he develops more movement on his fastball while retaining velocity. And if he develops two other plus pitches. You could make a case that Gore, Baz, and Carlson are better pitching prospects now. And they would be better prospects still if they had 3 years experience in the SEC. Of course that would make them Kyle Wright. If they were flashing 4 plus pitches.
  2. Lonestar
    Many get distracted by the fact that McKay is currently a two-way player. One thing they get distracted from is what he could become as a pitcher if that was all he focused on. Operative words = "could become".
  3. Lonestar
    As far as that goes, I think there is a different between dominant and dominating. 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 11 K is a dominating performance but Scott Diamond or Aaron Slegers could do that on occasion. Berrios' 39 IP, 5 ER, 39K, 8 BB, .807 WHIP is dominant But Gonzalves' start is encouraging. Any word on his velocity
  4. Lonestar
    Randy Rosario
  5. Lonestar
    I don't think Randy Rosario is getting enough attention. He's already on the 40-man roster and could be the first LH reliever called up, especially because his splits are nearly identical.
  6. Lonestar
    There's a difference between throws the hardest and highest ceiling. FWIW, Jordon Adell might have the highest ceiling. There's also something to be said for highest expected value. Some would say that's McKay. I give the edge to Wright because of his perceived ceiling and relative margin for error (velocity). Some speculate that McKay could be MLB ready this year -- in time for a playoff push. Wright might be ready after next year's Super 2 deadline.
  7. Lonestar
    G0/FO Wright 1.78 | McKay 0.77
  8. Lonestar
    I looked up Wright's last 5 starts and compared them to McKay's in the same time period. SSS but not necessarily cherry picking ERA 1.14 | 1.26 BB% 5.11% | 9.43% SO% 37.23% | 33.02% G0/FO 1.78 | 0.77 Wright had slightly stronger competition. We know there's more to command and control than BB% and SO%. McKay had one 5-inning start without his best stuff. He also missed a start for reason unknown to me. He was experimenting with a new cutter. Some would give the edge to McKay because he is an LHP. Some wouldn't draft a LHB 1B at 1-1 because Target Field is hard on LH power. That same reasoning would apply to LHP's. I don't get either. That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness. Left handedness could be a tie breaker if they were tied. I think Wright is the better pitching prospect.
  9. Lonestar
    Jay had a high ceiling and still has a high floor -- much higher than the expected value 1-6 picks. Jay was a multi-inning shutdown reliever in college because that was his coach's choice to maximize his value in more than 1 game a week. I liked Benintendi and Happ before the draft but personally picked Jay. How many of us would have howled if the Twins would have drafted Benintendi with Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler in route and a shortage of frontline starters.
  10. Lonestar
    Why are we signing up for a free newsletter? I could understand if it was behind a pay wall. And why can't we read old newsletters?
  11. Lonestar
    Remember when the Mets took Dwight Gooden at 1-5.
  12. Lonestar
    Park was not the reason Sano was relegated to RF. Plouffe was. The Twins are bound and determined to play Sano in the field. I can't find the quote, but Falvine or Molly reserved the right to play Sano in RF. Park and Vargas are not redundant. I think the Twins want a regular DH. Both have MiLB options. Both can play in Rochester if necessary. Neither is the 40th man on the roster. Danny Santana is. So this is either a way of saving Pohlad money. Or it's an attempt to free up a spot on the 40 man roster. In either case I think they chose poorly.
  13. Lonestar
    The only long reliever candidates mentioned are Haley, Duffy, and Hughes. Gotta have long reliever. Unless someone gets hurt in spring training, Kintzler, Belisle, Chargois, and Pressly are locks as are Boshers and Rogers. Tonkins is the odd man out. In a rebuilding year, I would rather take a chance on fixing Tonkin's hard contact than hoping Belisle is serviceable and maybe flippable. And Tonkin's trouble is not a straight fastball. He throws only 4-seamers that Brooks classifies as 2-seamers. Of course I've been rooting for Tonkin for years.
  14. Lonestar
    IIRC, the Twins were going to slightly reduce payroll in 2017. That would lower Falvine's flexibility for certain initiatives - especially while they were waiting for the Dozier trade resolution and then ending up with his salary.
  15. Lonestar
    I planned on no innings from Hughes in 2017. If he is capable of more than pitching batting practice, I would put him in long relief/swing man. If he is capable of high leverage relief, I think he would also be a good starting pitcher and that's where I would put him. My $.02. If Hughes is starting, I don't see the Twins starting all four vets -- Santana, Gibson, Santiago, and Hughes. I think Santiago would be the odd man out.
  16. Lonestar
    It is true that 2014 was an outlier season. Is it true that the Twins paid him for it? Hughes put up 5.9 WAR. The Twins increased his pay from $8M to $13.5M. That's less than 2 WAR. Hughes' extensions exposed the Twins to more risk of injury. Then again, he got hurt during the pre-extension years. We all expected Hughes to regress after 2014. 2014 could still have been a break through. How many of us expected him to regress from 5.9 WAR to less than 2? He put up 2.6 as a starter in 2010 and 2.4 in 2012. If TOS is the special cause of his regression, we don't know how much of an outlier his 2014 is/was. And we might not ever know.
  17. Lonestar
    I don't understand why some curse extending Hughes. No one mentions not trading Hughes after 2014 when his value was highest, but if the Twins were not going to trade him, his extension looks like a good deal. I agree with this Fangraphs pundit who wrote this in the midst of Hughes struggles in 2015: That writer blamed a slippage in Hughes' command. That was evidently before Hughes lost almost 2 MPH on the fastball. Both problems could be attributable to Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. We'll have to see if surgery and rehab fix the problem. If they do fix the problem, I'm not expecting Hughes to return to his 2014 form but he could be better than his Yankee incarnation -- more like 2-3 Wins.
  18. Lonestar
    Cannot go with 13-man pitching staff and 3-man bench. Jettison D Santana and Grossman. Sign Bourjos. Insert Escobar at SS. Sign Aaron Barrett to split deal. Polanco plays 2B if Dozier is traded, super utility if he is not. Sign Drew if Dozier is traded. Dump Santiago's salary. Sign Brett Anderson to incentive-laden deal. Hope Park is ready and able.
  19. Lonestar
    How tall is he?
  20. Lonestar
    Tired of waiting for the Dozier trade? MLB Pipeline's Top 50 draft prospects http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=draft
  21. Lonestar
    Under the old CBA, didn't teams get different international spending caps based on their record and now they get the same amount. So in the first year of the new CBA, the Twins would be hurt because their spending pool and competitive advantage will be smaller than it would have been.
  22. Lonestar
    Does this mean the Twins made a mistake when they waived ABW? Landa is still subject to the Rule 5 draft.
  23. Lonestar
    According to one Fangraphs pundit, Dozier was worth more than De Leon in July, before he sustained that hot streak 3 more months. I don't think that means Urias. You start with De Leon. After that, the objective should be to acquire talent, whether it is pitching or not.
  24. Lonestar
    There are [at least] two unknowns: [1] Will the Dodgers go after Chris Sale or other frontline pitcher? [2] What other team will make a competitive offer for Dozier? If the Dodgers have their entire prospect horde and have to compete for Dozier, the Twins should fare well. If the Dodgers spend some of their young talent (perhaps including Urias) and they are only competing with themselves for Dozier, the Twins might end of keeping Dozier.
  25. Lonestar
    Fangraphs loves Alvarez. Sickles loves him too, just not as much as de Leon. MLB Pipeline has him at the bottom of their 100, below Gonzalves and way below de Leon. By their reckoning, the Twins could trade Gonzalves for Alvarez 1:1. I don't know BA's current thinking. What the Dodgers paid to sign Alvarez is a sunk cost. The Dodgers have shown a willingness to move on from sunk costs (at least when it is a mistake).
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