I think the surest under bet is Dozier. He gets most of his dingers on high cheese and at this stage in his career everyone knows that. Pitchers will know to stay with breaking pitches down and away, even when they are behind in the count. Unless he can make some big adjustments it's very unlikely that he'll hit more than 20 any season for the rest of his career. IMHO, of course. Now, allow me to be optimistic but reasonable. 15 from the catcher position, 10 from Mauer, 25 from Vargas and/or Park, 20 from Dozier, 25 from Plouffe, 15 from Escobar, 20 from Rosario, 15 from Buxton, 25 from Arcia and 35 from Sano. Add another 10 from Nunez and/or whoever else. 215.