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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins dropped another tough game last night, and once again it came against the New York Yankees. After a great start to the season, and heading into the All Star Game strong, Minnesota has been a different team since the break. It was these Yankees that may have started the downward spiral (on July 25th at Target Field), but it's the Twins who don't seem to be leaving the rut any time soon.
     
    During the first half of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, it was pretty apparent that the Twins were playing outside and past expectations. This team wasn't a contender, and their secondary statistics suggested regression would be coming. For over 80 games though, Minnesota turned up a nose at all of those notions.
     
    Through the first half, Brian Dozier looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, Trevor Plouffe was one of the best third basemen in the big leagues, Torii Hunter looked ageless, Glen Perkins was the gold standard, and Joe Mauer seemingly was battling back to being his former self. It was a perfect storm of everything going right, all at the same time.
     
    Dozier's first half was indicative of him being arguably the best second basemen in all of baseball. In 88 games, he slashed .256/.328/.513. His on base percentage once again negated the relevance of his average, and his extra base hit numbers powered the way. With 19 home runs, 26 doubles, and 50 runs batted in, the Southern Miss product was on pace to do something special.
     
    Dozier's two infield teammates also paced Minnesota in the first half. Mauer's average (.271) wasn't ideal, but his slash (.271/.336/.387) helped the Twins in the middle of the lineup. His six home runs and 42 runs batted in also were a by product of a very strong high leverage batting average. Plouffe swung to a .259/.320/.449 slash line with 11 homers and 46 runs batted in, along with 22 doubles. Minnesota's third basemen was only overshadowed by a guy named Josh Donaldson.
     
    Then there was Torii Hunter. 40 years old, at the end of his career, and still getting it done. The Twins favorite slashed .257/.312/.444 across his first 80 games. Hunter added 14 homers, 15 doubles, and 49 runs batted in to help pace the offense. By all early indications, he had plenty left in the tank.
     
    Despite the Twins glaring issues in the bullpen, there was Glen Perkins. A failed starter, but two-time All Star closer, now looked like one of the best in the game. He was 28-28 in save opportunities, owned a 1.21 ERA, and was allowing opposing hitters to bat just .188/.217/.246 off of him. Dazzling probably doesn't do Perkins first half justice.
    As the calendar turned over to the second half however, it all came crashing down.
     
    Since the break, Dozier has slashed .220/.286/.431, effectively making his poor average a detriment. His six home runs have netted just 11 runs batted in, and he's doubled only five times in 27 games. Mauer has batted just .250/.316/.356 with two homers and nine RBI while Plouffe has watched a nice run of late bring up a paltry .225/.262/.500 slash line since the break. Without his seven home runs and 19 RBI, Plouffe's 26 game post All Star stretch would look even worse.
     
    Then, there's the fact that Torii's age has begun to show. He hasn't been a solid defensive player at any point for the Twins in 2015, but that was expected. His .172/.215/.322 slash with just four home runs and 11 RBI since the break would warrant a demotion for most younger players. To say he's gone in the tank is putting it nicely.
     
    As the bullpen has seemed to survive on shaky ground in the second half, it's been Perkins who has been arguably the worst. Despite the dazzling first half, he owns an 8.10 ERA in 10.0 post break innings. He's picked up only three saves, blown two, and lost three times. Opposing hitters are batting .383/.420/.702 off of him, and he's surrendered four home runs.
     
    When looking at the middle of the Twins lineup, and the heart of what the team needs to compete, it's been a blow up in every sense. Dozier, Plouffe, and Hunter have turned into home run or bust types, while Mauer has been even more of a shell of what once was. Adding in the fact that Perkins is no longer a guaranteed save only complicates the issue.
     
    As things stand, there is a rainbow through the storm that the Twins veterans have created. Miguel Sano (.292), Eddie Rosario (.279), and Aaron Hicks (.276) are pacing the Twins lineup. The youth movement has started, and 2016 was always seen as the opening of an upcoming window. While it's been the veterans failure to remain consistent that has cause the Twins biggest regression, it has been the youth's ability to succeed that has kept Minnesota relevant.
     
    For months leading up to the All Star Game, regression was a word Twins fans wanted to stop hearing about. The fact now is that the numbers have began to even out, and because they were so steeply skewed in Minnesota's favor, they are now going the opposite way equally as steep.
     
    The downturn has highlighted why the Twins were right to balk at making any big moves at the deadline. Playing well above their heads, remaining in contention for a wild card spot was unlikely. What has happened though is positive growth for 2016, a season in which the Twins should begin to "go for it." Curbing the post "break" downturn is something the Twins need to figure out however, and having the regression hit across the board at the same time is something that has to be avoided.
     
    Paul Molitor has done an incredible job in his first year as the Twins skipper, but if he wants to use this season's success as a kickstart for the years to come, focusing on the second half slide is priority number one. Mauer and Hunter are more done than they aren't, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Perkins are cornerstones for this organization, and getting 162 games worth of productivity is part of taking the next step.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    July 2nd, 2015 is a day that will likely go down in the archives of the Minnesota Twins history books. With Minnesota looking to capitalize on some early-season, out-of-nowhere success that had them in the middle of a Wild Card race, the organization called on a 22-year-old prospect. Miguel Sano made his major league debut, and since, there's been no turning back.
     
    I was under the impression that Sano's power was real, that in and of itself was pretty evident. The expectation that he could have started the season with the Twins and clubbed 20+ home runs was a pretty fair assessment. He probably would have hit around the Mendoza Line, but the power was going to play. What he has done though, is something that makes him so much more than the Twins next superstar.
     
    To this point in the season, Sano owns a .284 average and has a .949 OPS. In just 34 games, he's crushed seven home runs (with one multi-home run game). Sano has accumulated 10 doubles, and has plated 25 runs. While he's struck out a healthy amount (47 times in 141 plate appearances), he's also walked a respectable amount (23). As a whole, Sano's production has equaled a 1.1 fWAR mark. That fraction of a season sample size is impressive, but it carries some real weight when given a full season look.
     
    Averaged out across 162 games, Miguel Sano's pace is as follows: .284 avg 81 runs 157 hits 48 doubles 33 home runs and 119 runs batted in. It all adds up to a 5.2 fWAR (or one of the top 25 best players in the game).
     
    Those numbers alone put Sano into another realm of stardom. Minnesota has not had a 30+ home run output since 2012 (Josh Willingham 35), and while Brian Dozier is on pace to join the club this season, it's Sano who profiles as a yearly producer. His 119 RBI would be the most since Justin Morneau plated 129 runs in 2008. Most impressively, it's not the numbers alone that elevate Sano for the Twins.
     
    Sano is a charismatic individual that has the personality to be the face of a franchise. With Joe Mauer stepping aside to usher in the next wave of youth, the Twins young stars will become the emulated ballplayers of the future. Sano's smile, personality, and approach to the game is everything Terry Ryan and the Twins could have possibly hoped for.
     
    As Miguel Sano continues to settle into the rigors of the big league lifestyle, he will only become more comfortable. What once looked like an exciting power hitting prospect, is rounding out to be one of the best young players in the game right before our eyes.
     
    What may make things even all that much more exciting for Twins fans is the fact that an even bigger name is preparing to break loose. His name, Byron Buxton.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    It's the first week of August, the Twins have fallen out of a Wild Card spot, and they remain just one game over .500. Considering how the year started, that's a less than ideal scenario, but knowing how it was projected to end, they find themselves in a good spot. What's better is that with the way the final two months appear to be shaping up, there's even more reason to anticipate 2016.
    With plenty of baseball left, there's not much reason to write off the Twins. Sure, they aren't going to make the playoffs, but there's competitive and meaningful baseball taking place at Target Field in August and September, that's huge. Going forward though, it's the opportunities provided to manager Paul Molitor over the final two months that will bolster the Twins in 2016.
     
    I have been a championing the fact that Aaron Hicks has been ready for quite a while. The cornerstone of that argument has been the path he has recently been on. After being promoted too early from Double-A due to a stellar spring training a few years ago, it was his time in Double and Triple-A to end last year that showed he was a new player. Getting his feet wet slowly helped immensely, and that's where the Twins find themselves at once again.
    Miguel Sano has already spent over 25 games with the big league club. He's has held his own slashing .278/.411/.522 with five home runs and 12 extra base hits. Going forward, the next couple of months will be big for Sano to hit the ground running in 2016. Hitters have failed to get on ahead of him of late, allowing opposing pitchers to throw him offspeed stuff away and out of the zone. Sano has shown good plate discipline (38/21 K/BB), but being able to have more opportunities to swing away will only further his development. The time at the big league level will no doubt have Sano entering 2016 brimming with confidence.
     
    On the opposite end of the spectrum, Byron Buxton has taken his lumps with the Twins. He played just 11 games before hitting the DL with a thumb injury. In those games, he slashed .189/.231/.270. Buxton is being afforded a great opportunity however. With an upcoming rehab stint scheduled to take place at Triple-A Rochester, he will face pitchers more able to "pitch" and spin balls, than those at Double-A capable of blowing it by hitters. Likely spending September with the Twins, Buxton will then be able to work through some struggles to better prepare for the upcoming season.
    Then there's the benefit that comes with expanded rosters. At the end of August, Minnesota can utilize up to 40 roster spots, and while they won't be bringing that many players up, there's a few worthy inclusions.
     
    It would stand to reason that both Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia could be given another chance to end the season. Unlike the path Aaron Hicks took though in which he produced following a demotion in 2014, neither Vargas nor Arcia has been any good. Vargas is slashing .240/.363/.423 at Double-A Chattanooga. Arcia had a nice run of eight home runs, but owns a .232/.291/.420 slash line with 59 K and just 15 walks.
    More importantly in September will be the call ups that expect to figure prominently into the 2016 plans. With next season being the opening of the window in the "go for it" timespan, getting key cogs feet wet would make a lot of sense. Included amongst that group would almost have to be Jose Berrios and Max Kepler. Had Zack Jones, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed not struggled this season, they may be included as well.
     
    Berrios has strung together a handful of nice starts at Triple-A and should be considered for the rotation in 2016. He owns a 2.00 ERA across his last 4 starts (27.0 IP) and should have a couple more under his belt before the end of August. A cup of coffee in the form of a spot start would make a ton of sense.
    With the outfield no doubt going to be shuffled in 2016 (Torii Hunter moving to a part time role and the likely spot cleared by Shane Robinson being a free agent), there's going to be a competition for final spots. Max Kepler has batted .330/.412/.540 in 82 games for Double-A Chattanooga and is clearly ready for his next challenge. There would be no better way to get him geared up for the MLB level than to include him in games at the end of this season. Kepler looks the part, and allowing him to prove it could be beneficial.
     
    Minnesota could also look at some lesser relief options. Guys like Logan Darnell, Michael Tonkin, Mark Hamburger, and A.J. Achter could all find their way to the big leagues. Each of them has pitched well for the most part in 2015, and could give the Twins some extended evaluation time at the big league level should they appear in September.
    At the end of the year, Minnesota looks poised to finish right where they ought to be. They will be somewhere around second or third in the division, and within a few games either way of the .500 mark. Sure, that's a far cry from how things started, but it's a significant improvement and exactly how you take the next step forward. Pushing forward players that could prove instrumental in a year is something the Twins have the opportunity to do, so the next two months still hold plenty of weight.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 51-51 just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting. Every indication suggests that the Twins did absolutely the right thing at the trade deadline. As they slip out of sole possession of a wild card spot, Terry Ryan has a new period of evaluation coming.
    For much of the season, the Twins were a team playing well above water. With an extremely impressive home record, while staving off regression, Minnesota distanced themselves from the pack. As it generally does, baseball has begun to shift back towards a statistical normalcy and the Twins have felt the squeeze.
     
    Since the All Star Break, Minnesota is just 5-11. In those 16 games, the Twins offense has scored an average of 3.4 runs per game while surrendering 5.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has all but imploded, most obviously on the back end (Glen Perkins owns an 11.12 ERA since the break). The Twins offense has gone in the tank, and the winning has hit the skids. In their last three losses, Minnesota has scored just one run in each contest.
    To say this was predictable is probably not unfair. Minnesota has a plethora of pitchers with inflated FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks and strong ERA's (in fact, acquired reliever Kevin Jepsen is among them). They have also seen a boost in the offense from unlikely sources such as Aaron Hicks (who has been incredibly hot), Eddie Rosario (who's been consistent), and Miguel Sano (who surprisingly has hit for average). At the root of the struggles though is that the Twins have watched it all come crashing down at the same time.
     
    Blaine Boyer (3.02 ERA 4.28 FIP, still some regression to come) and Casey Fien (4.19 ERA 4.14 FIP) have started to even out, J.R. Graham has been knocked around (9.00 ERA in his last 8.0 IP), and we already touched on Perkins struggles. Joe Mauer (.255/.317/.327), Torii Hunter (.204/.246/.370), and Brian Dozier (.217/.299/.450) have all slumped since the break. Starting pitching hasn't been great, and Tommy Milone (7.98 ERA in 142. IP since ASG) is now headed to the DL.
    Terry Ryan is watching as each of the potential problem areas for the Twins rears it's head at once. In that, he can find solace in knowing he absolutely did the right thing at the trade deadline. Fixing the bullpen, offense, and need positions all at once without jumping the gun wasn't a realistic possibility. In a difficult test of patience, that is now paying dividends.
     
    Staying put for the most part (aside from dealing for Jepsen who provides team control going forward), allows the Twins to continue along a realistic path. Despite being in position to grab a Wild Card spot, the heat of the summer was sure to sort things out. Regardless of the big moves by the Blue Jays (both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki count as just that), the Twins were going to have to continue to defy their own odds. In not sacrificing the blueprint that has been laid out, the next few years remain incredibly bright for the Twins.
    As the 2015 Major League Baseball season rolls on, the Twins still have plenty to gain. Nowhere near out of the playoff race, call ups and seasoning can be provided to young and integral players in the midst of meaningful games. With Tyler Duffey paving the way and Jose Berrios likely soon to follow, Minnesota affords young arms a cup of coffee in the middle of real action. Miguel Sano, Hicks, Rosario, and even Byron Buxton can begin to settle into the highest level while competing for something on a nightly basis. In the end, it's the best outcome for everyone.
    Going forward, the Twins already had plenty of reason to be realistic playoff contenders immediately in 2016 and onward. Thanks to the decision to hold onto the farm, the Twins should take plenty of valuable lessons and developmental instances away from 2015 even if they don't end up in the playoffs. As 2016 rolls around, they should enter as one of the two best teams in the Central, and the final two months of 2015 baseball will serve as the launching pad for that growth.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    July comes to a close, the Major League Baseball trade deadline passes, and the dust settles. In the wake of it all, the Minnesota Twins are left with a slim lead in the Wild Card race, and a very small margin for error. Hope has to be waning right? But what if that hope is placed in the wrong things, and it doesn't really matter if the Twins fade?
    Coming into the season the Twins weren't a realistic postseason contender, they weren't supposed to be here, and this wasn't supposed to be their time. Sure, it would be great to capitalize on a situation after four straight seasons with more than 90 losses, but at the end of the day, perspective must reign supreme. At what cost does competing now come, and does maximizing a current Wild Card spot sacrifice future years? Maybe hope is best placed elsewhere, after all, Paul Molitor's Twins have provided plenty of areas this season.
     
    Maybe most visible of them all is the emergence and development all along. This was coming, and I've been suggesting it for well over the past year. He's put it all together this season though at a rate even I wasn't prepared for. Owning a .299/.364/.437 slash line, and hitting .365/.443/.608 in July and his five home runs are on pace for a new career high. He's been worth 2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and has a 6.1 UZR (ultimate zone rating) as the Twins centerfielder. Even when Byron Buxton shifts him to right field, the Twins have a solid asset at their disposal.
    Another young guy has stepped up in a big way. Going into the season, I suggested Eddie Rosario would be the first Twins prospect called up, and that he could go on to have a Danny Santana (2014) like season. He's batting .294/.316/.462 and has caught fire of late batting .393/.393/.679 since July 10. In the field he's been worth 3 DRS and owns a 3.0 UZR as he looks poised to lock down left field for the Twins into the future.
     
    As has been anticipated for many years, Miguel Sano made his big league debut in 2015. So far he's done everything expected of him and then some. Already with three home runs in his first 21 games, he's also hit for average batting .296/.427/.507. More impressively, he's batting .364/.500/.682 against righties, while hitting just .185/.290/.22 against lefties. In the minors this year Sano was better against lefties slashing .299/.405/.597. He's going to crush lefties at the MLB level, so the fact that he's also seeing righties well early is a great development.
    Then there's a guy on the big league roster that has continued to prove it. After an impressive 2014, Brian Dozier has looked the part of an MVP candidate in 2105. The first time All Star is hitting .256/.330/.512 with 22 home runs (good for top 15 in the bigs). He's on pace for career highs in doubles, home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored. On pace to be a 5.0+ fWAR player, Dozier has emerged as the best second basemen in the league.
     
    Outside of the 25 man roster, there has been plenty of great development as well. Jose Berrios looks the part of a big league starter right now at Triple-A Rochester. He owns a 1.35 ERA and an 8.1 K/9 across his last three starts. Stephen Gonsalves has followed in the footsteps of Berrios as a fast riser down in Fort Myers, and first round pick Nick Gordon is now getting it done with the bat. It'd be hard to overlook Max Kepler, who's .337 batting average at Double-A Chattanooga is plain silly. Throw in secondary prospects like Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Mat Batts, and the Twins are in a better spot than ever.
    So that's maybe where the hope is, or should be. Rather than clinging to what the Twins do or don't do at the deadline, or whether they make the playoffs, or whether they fade into September, it's finally a realistic situation to look ahead.
    Minnesota should go into 2016 as the clear second best team in the AL Central, trailing only the Royals. Depending on what pieces are added, and who is promoted when, Terry Ryan's organization should see the future as filled with division championships and playoff appearances once again. 2015 has been a lot of fun so far, but if playoff baseball doesn't come to fruition, there's plenty of reason for hope and excitement to thrive where it should be in the first place.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    As the summer draws on and the fall draws near, lots of changes shape the Major League baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There's divisional races, and then there' s September call ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call up window, and in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.
    Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.
     
    Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early on in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.
     
    Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBI. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his stamp on the organization.
    Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped off to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been also systems go though. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season, it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.
     
    On the year, Kepler has substantiated his success to the tune of 92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.
     
    When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldly, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.
    Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40 man roster inclusion, Kepler has all the makings of the ability to push for an opening day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves hard pressed to do.
    As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    The Twins are in somewhat of a downward spiral of late having won just two out of their last 10 contests. Now the owners of just a slim lead in the wild card standings, Minnesota is looking for bright spots. Luckily enough, the one I've been suggesting for well over a year, is shining brighter than ever. Aaron Hicks has stepped up and he's looking every bit what I've been suggesting he will become.
    Ok so I'm a bit thrilled my belief in and backing of Hicks gas come to fruition. I put some of my thoughts in a blog post back in May (read it), and it's been maybe more well documented throughout my Twitter feed. Although the self gratification is fun, the bigger point here is how big of a development this is for not only Hicks, but the Twins as a whole.
     
    It was pretty easily visible that Aaron Hicks was one of the best defensive options for the twins at the major league level. Having had such poor outfield defense for so long, Hicks provided range, ability, and an arm that the organization had not seen for a while. Save his few mental lapses, and he would likely be routinely mentioned amongst the best fielders in the game. It's at the plate though where Hicks has been plagued the longest.
    There was a point in his career where Hicks wasn't sure switch hitting was his best plan of action. Struggling mightily against right-handed pitching, he didn't do much better on his dominant right-handed hitting side either. Owning just a .203/.273/.441 slash line in 2013 (his first big league season) as a righty, his line of .340/.400/.540 in 2015 is significantly improved. Having never hit above .215 at the big league level, his current .288 mark is incredibly impressive.
     
    On top of getting extra base hits (Hicks has four doubles, two triples, and four home runs on the year), the biggest boost comes from his approach at the plate. A big on-base guy in the minors, Hicks hadn't flash much of that ability for the Twins. In 2015 though, he's got a career high .345 OBP and owns a 25/16 K/BB ratio.
    Due to a better command of the zone, Hicks has seen drastic improvements in some different peripherals as well. Following strikeout percentages of 26.8 and 24.9 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Hicks is being struck out just 14.1% of the time this season. He's got the lowest soft hit percentage of his career (15.6%) and has seen the biggest jump in his medium contact percentage (60.7%).
     
    Aggressiveness has also been something that Hicks has noted working on, and that has shown as well. Swinging at more pitches, and earlier in the count, Hicks has been able to work things in his favor. He's swung at a career high 45.3% of pitches while owning a career best 82.0% contact rate. The new found confidence has also played when he's behind in the count. After getting down 0-2, Hicks owns a .296/.345/.481 line.
    At the plate, Aaron Hicks has absolutely substantiated the notion I suggested many months ago. A promotion from Double-A based on a hot spring training was premature, and following a respectable time in Triple-A to end 2014 (.278/.349/.389 through 23 games), Hicks had completed a healthier path to his success.
     
    In the field, Hicks has turned it up in 2015 as well. Having been already regarded as a good outfielder, he now owns a 3 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark this season, along with a 6.6 UZR (ultimate zone rating) and a 28.6 UZR/150. Having been a -0.6 and 0.1 fWAR player this season, Hicks is now worth 1.5 fWAR. To the Twins, he's absolutely an asset.
    With Byron Buxton still being the best prospect in baseball, Hicks' run in centerfield is no doubt going to come to an end. With his arm, he profiles wonderfully to be an exceptional right-fielder as well. Until that time comes though, the Twins have the centerfielder they were hoping for, and the one I believed was flashing signs of being ready for far too long.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    In the dead of the night, the Colorado Rockies sent their All Star shortstop, and their face of the franchise, Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal involved another high profile shortstop, Jose Reyes, heading back to the Rockies. While the Twins were linked to Tulo at different points leading up to the trade, passing on him was always the best move. Reyes will likely become available now as well, and the Twins should once again look the other way. Despite neither of those names being fits, the Twins need to find something, and it may not come from within.
     
    Right now, the Twins have allowed a grouping of Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez to hold down what is arguably the most important position in the infield. Santana was the Twins Opening Day starter and he had the uphill battle of substantiating a smoke and mirrors offensive 2014. The .405 BABIP had Santana stacked against regression, and it has hit hard. He's batted just .219/.243/.300 in 72 games, still doesn't take walks (66/5 K/BB) and has yet to hit a home run (after having seven last season).
     
    On the defensive side, Santana hasn't been any good either. He's made 16 errors and is 6th in the majors in that category despite playing significantly less games. He's been worth -14 DRS (defensive runs saved) to this point and owns a -4.8 UZR (ultimate zone rating). To put it simply, it hasn't been pretty and a second demotion should come soon.
     
    Probably most deserving of being the Twins current shortstop, comes in the form of a Band-Aid. Eduardo Escobar flashed promise a season ago, but remains best suited as a utility type. He owns a .246/.280/.389 slash line on the season, and that's right about what his career averages look like. He's started 19 games at short, made two errors, been worth -1 DRS, and owns a -1.6 UZR.
     
    Rounding out the 25 man roster options is former Derek Jeter replacement, Edaurdo Nunez. His .277/.31`5/.445 slash line is buoyed by a lack of at bats, and a very strong start. He's played 14 games at shortstop for the Twins, making no errors, being worth 0 DRS, and owning a 1.2 UZR. As a replacement player, you could probably do worse. However, the 14 game sample size also hides a guy that was worth -28 DRS in just 75 games at short for the Yankees in 2013.
     
    So if the answer isn't on the active roster, it has to be on the farm right? That answer is somewhat difficult to come up with. Most ready would appear to be Triple-A shortstop Jorge Polanco. His bat appears major league ready, but his fielding has some significant issues. Slashing .284/.309/.352 for Rochester, Polanco's bat has cooled since his initial promotion. His 26 extra base hits on the season are nice to see however. In the field Polanco faces the demons holding him back. He's made eight errors in 19 games at the Triple-A level, and he has another 16 in 64 Double-A games this season. He probably would hit right away for the Twins, but there's little doubt he'd be a defensive liability.
     
    Down another level, and taking Polanco's place for the Lookouts, is Niko Goodrum. In 464 minor league games, Goodrum owns a .242/.336/.352 slash line, and he's below all of those marks this season. The Twins took Goodrum out of high school in the second round of the 2010 Major League Baseball draft. He's played all over the place in the Twins system, but the infield seems to be his best fit. He too has struggled with errors, and the upside has yet to rear it's head.
     
    Fort Myers, the Twins High-A affiliate has rotated through the shortstop position as well. Goodrum spent time there prior to his promotion, and now Engelb Vielma and Ryan Walker have taken over. Vielma is a 21 year old who has gotten better as he's risen through the Twins farm (.266/.309/.308 in 2015), and Walker was an 18th round pick in 2013 by the Twins (.272/.310/.293 in 2015). Neither posses the peripherals of a major league quality shortstop at this point.
     
    The next level down is where things get interesting. At Low-A Cedar Rapids, the Twins 1st round pick in 2014 resides. Gordon is looked at as a potential Gold Glove level defender and a lacking bat. He's hit just .267/.334/.334 this season, but he owned a 17 game hit streak and has been on fire since the end of June (.316/.358/.429). Just 19 years old, Gordon doesn't figure to factor into the Twins plans for at least the next three years. He has a slight frame (6'0" 160lbs) and needs to fill out yet, as well as needing the seasoning that comes with rising through the system.
     
    Then there's Wander Javier, the 16-year-old dominican shortstop the Twins just signed to a $4 million bonus. Javier is also looked upon favorably, but won't be ready for the big leagues for at least six years. He's got plenty of projectability, but it's also on the twins to help him develop into the player they spent big money on.
    Looking through the options, it's the combined $8 million the Twins spent (Gordon got a $4 million draft bonus) that seem to be future fits at shortstop. Unfortunately that money is invested in teenagers a long ways from helping at the highest level. Both Gordon and Javier could work out, and both could fail, right now though neither help the Twins.
     
    For a team looking to compete in the upcoming season, addressing the hole at shortstop seems necessary. Escobar should probably have already taken over for Santana, and the Twins should be determining if Polanco can stick at the spot. After determining what they have in those two scenarios, Minnesota would find itself in position to make a move. Going out and getting a big fish before making those decisions would be short-sighted, but there's no denying that it's very likely the Twins don't have a shortstop that can help them in the immediate future within the organization.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    July is coming to an end, and that means that Major League Baseball is being sent into a frenzy with the non-waiver trade deadline fast approaching. For the Twins, this is extra special, because for the first time in four years, they are actually in a position to participate. However, in light of recent events around the AL Central, they absolutely must stay the course and exercise patience.
     
    Over the weekend, the Kansas City Royals made the biggest move of the season. In sending a package highlighted by 2014 first round pick Brandon Finnegan, Kansas City added an ace to their staff in the form of Johnny Cueto. Having to watch struggles from the likes of Yordano Ventura, rely on Chris Young, and see Jason Vargas go down with a torn UCL, the Royals needed to make a move. In doing so, they went out and got the best pitcher available, while positioning themselves for a deep playoff run.
     
    Despite being in the AL Central, and direct competition for the Twins, the Royals move to add Cueto couldn't be further removed from relevance in Minnesota. Prior to the weekend starting, Minnesota was still looking up at the boys in blue, trailing them in the division. Since the Twins relinquished the top of the AL Central early on in the summer, the Royals have held down the spot and separated from the competition.
     
    There's little doubt that Cueto doesn't make the Royals a better team. He owns a 2.62 ERA and a career low 3.13 FIP. He is sitting down batters at an 8.3 K/9 clip while walking on average just 2 batters per nine innings. All of this was done with an outfield defense ranking 15th in the big leagues in DRS (defensive runs saved). Of course he makes the Royals better, but that also isn't the Twins concern.
     
    Just as was the case before Kansas City dealt for the Reds case, the Twins weren't looking up. At this point in the season, if Minnesota is looking to capitalize on their impressive record, they will do so by fending off what's behind them. Currently with a hold on the second Wild Card spot, the Twins must stay the course.
     
    Despite having dropped two of three to the Yankees this weekend, the AL East has given the Twins the least amount of problems this season. Leading the Blue Jays by 3 games, Baltimore by 3.5, and the Rays by 4, Minnesota is in a good place. the trade deadline should still be a place where the Twins need to buy, but their course of action should remain unchanged.
     
    Whether or not Minnesota should go out and upgrade the catcher or shortstop position is something that can be debated, but relief arms are something the Twins still need to covet. Watching Steve Cishek go to the Cardinals for a price the Twins could have definitely paid, means they are more intrigued elsewhere. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which at least one arm doesn't come to Minnesota, but the big splashes aren't where the Twins need to focus.
     
    This club has, and continues to, outperform expectations in 2015. Realizing the pieces to continue competing are they, and adding a couple more that help to solidify the Wild Card positioning should be the goal. Playoff baseball is a different beast, and it's anyone's guess as to what happens when it begins. Minnesota needs to add the pieces to stay in front of the race, and let what happens when they get there take place.
    Terry Ryan has built a winner for years to come with the current organizational construction, and blowing that up to keep pace with those out of reach isn't going to do you any favors. Forget the Royals, light your own path, get some bullpen help, and grab the first playoff berth since 2010.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    In a season where the Minnesota Twins have outperformed expectations at a rather surprising rate, there's been plenty to get excited about. Outside of the results on the diamond, Minnesota has watched top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano make their big league debuts. Brian Dozier continues to be the best second basemen in all of baseball, and Paul Molitor has the home nine looking like a contender again.
     
    In the midst of all of that, the Twins have another cornerstone piece that has flown under the radar while on the verge of stardom.
    Currently holding down the hot corner, Trevor Plouffe has entered into the next tier for Minnesota. Rather than being seen as just a guy on the 25 man roster, it's time to give Plouffe his due. Consistently producing now, and developing over the last three seasons, Minnesota has a legitimate star in the making at third.
     
    After being a failed shortstop, Plouffe made the transition to his new position. With 2012 being his first full time season at third, Plouffe took his lumps owning a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark. Year by year, the results have improved. In 2013, Plouffe pushed his DRS to 0, in 2014 it was 6, and this season he's on pace for 7 defensive runs saved. On top of making plays, his UZR (ultimate zone rating) has seen substantial improvement as well. Starting at -10.8 in 2012, it was pushed to -7.4 in 2013, 6.7 last season, and is on pace for a 7.9 mark this year.
    It was always his fielding that was the more apparent as an issue, but Plouffe's stick has been impressive as he's aged as well. A torrid stretch in the 2012 summer allowed Plouffe to hit a career high 24 home runs, but his 55 RBI and .235/.301/.455 slash line left something to be desired. Since that point, he's made consistent improvements at the dish.
     
    Staying steady in both 2013 and 2014 with 14 home runs, Plouffe pushed his RBI career high to 80 last season. An increase in walks (53 in 2014 as opposed to 34 in 2013) pushed his OBP to a career high .328 a season ago. As a whole however, it's in 2015 that Plouffe is putting it together. Thanks to a .312/.381/.570 stretch through the month May, Plouffe owns a .253/.315/.451 line on the season. He's on pace for 23 HR along with 94 RBI (a new career high) and 41 doubles (also would be a new career high).
    After being worth just 0.5 fWAR in 2012, a season in which he was a home run or bust threat, and 0.3 fWAR in 2013, his arrow has trended straight up. Last season, Plouffe owned a 3.6 fWAR mark, which was good enough for fourth in the American league amongst third basemen. Trailing just Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Kyle Seager in 2015, Plouffe's 2.5 fWAR has him on pace for a final tally of 4.5 fWAR (a new career high).
     
    Signed to a one-year $4.8 million arbitration deal this season, Plouffe is under team control until 2018. While I'm ok either way with how the Twins handle his contract situation, extending and paying Trevor Plouffe is something you'd be hard pressed not to get behind. As it stands, Plouffe is knocking on the door of stardom, and is one of the best third basemen in the big leagues.
    At the end of the day, the Twins are going to need more than a piece here and there to return to the times of being perennial division champs. Having exciting young pieces is a great thing, but Trevor Plouffe should no longer be overlooked, he's the real deal.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins came into 2015 with expectations of a .500 season seeming doable, even despite the national types tabbing them for a last place finish in the AL Central. Now in the midst of a playoff race, the Twins find themselves shopping at the trade deadline. With Danny Santana playing anything but a capable shortstop, and internal options proving thing, Minnesota is kicking the tires on Troy Tulowitzki.
    It really isn't at all like the Twins to make deadline deals, and even more so for them to go after such high profile players. With Tulo wanting out of Colorado though, and the Twins needing to fill the void that Cristian Guzman left at short so many years ago, the fit is at least sensible on the surface.
     
    From there, things go downhill, and fast. I may be one of the biggest fans of Tulowitzki the player, but getting him to the Twins looks disastrous on multiple fronts. First and foremost, the acquisition cost. Colorado apparently is interested in Kyle Gibson.
     
    A 27 year old with four years of team control left, and not arbitration eligible until 2017, Gibson has plenty to offer as a trade chip. He's been one of the Twins best starters (if not the best) and his 3.19 ERA and 6.4 K/9 are nice steps forward in his development. The Rockies see an ideal fit in Gibson as he's a sinkerballer that is inducing a career high 55% ground ball rate. Allowing just 27% of pitches to be hit hard, Gibson would see success in the otherwise difficult to handle Coors Field.
    As good as Gibson has been and projects to continue to be, he alone wouldn't be enough for the Rockies either. For a talent like Tulowitzki, Colorado would be seeking multiple top tier prospects as well. With Minnesota surprisingly competing ahead of its window, fleecing the farm doesn't seem intelligent.
     
    The next hurdle is what you can expect from Tulowitzki. He has played an average of 88 games the last three years and is now on the wrong side of 30. Despite being a perennial All-Star and consistent MVP candidate, expecting him to stay healthy is far from the norm. Dealing for a piece with the intention of fixing a problem area in the organization only to have that player sit on the DL isn't going to do anything for Minnesota.
    Then there's the change of location. In his career, Tulo's home and away splits are telling. He's a .322/.395/.560 hitter at Coors Field, while slashing just .277/.349/.469 on the road. Factor in that Target Field is probably the furthest thing from the hitter friendly Coors Field, and the drop in production could be substantial. Balls simply don't fly out of downtown Minneapolis like they do in the Mile High City, and that isn't going to help a guy who hasn't gotten back to 30 home runs since 2011.
     
    Rounding out the laundry list of negatives is the stack of cash the Rockies superstar still has coming to him. Colorado would almost assuredly need to throw in money in return for the prospects they covet in return. Tulowitzki is owed $20 million a year through 2019, before his salary drops to $14 million as a 35 year old in 2020. He also carries a $15 million team option for his 2021 season.
    That kind of cash comes in under the $23 million the Twins currently pay Joe Mauer (who has actually been healthy more than Tulowitzki). Twins fans have consistently bashed Mauer's production relative to his compensation, and while Tulowitzki should no doubt outperform the transplanted catcher, it's anyone's guess as to how many games he contributes each year.
    You'd probably be hard pressed to find someone that likes Troy Tulowitzki the baseball player than I do, but for the Twins, the answer has to be no. Going forward with the organization trending back towards winning and competition, adding what could end up being a very expensive corner outfielder long term (or worse), Minnesota would taking a significant (and potentially foolish) risk. Colorado is going to move Tulowitzki before that contract is up, but it doesn't need to be now, and it doesn't need to be the Twins.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    As the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline quickly approaches, the Twins are in position to be buyers for the first time since at least 2010. With 50 wins under their belt, the next handful of games will go help to determine just how aggressive the Twins should be, and where they need help the most. With three glaring holes, the Twins have a couple of options to consider.
    I'd still make the argument that bullpen help is the Twins biggest need, and it should undoubtedly come with the lowest acquisition cost. However, if Minnesota wants to address the issues behind the plate or at shortstop, a higher profile solution is likely going to be the target. In those cases, the assets sent away will also be of the heightened ceiling variety.
    Minnesota has one of the deepest farm systems in all of baseball, but how do we quantify what players fall where. Let's take a look.
    The Untouchables
     
    I think it probably goes without saying who's in this grouping. Led by Byron Buxton, the Twins also would consider Miguel Sano a lock for this title. Rounding out, and being right on the edge of this territory is Jose Berrios.
    Buxton is currently shelved, but looked every bit the best prospect in baseball in his romp through the minor leagues. His bat was always going to take some time at the big league level, but it was pretty apparent to see his influence on the Twins outfield.
     
    Sano has started his big league career with a bang. In his first 13 games he's slashed .326/.558/.992 with four doubles, two home runs, and 19 RBI. His power stroke is incredibly impressive, and he;s going to contribute at the plate for a very long time.
    Berrios is the lone member of this club yet to make his big league debut. Worrying some projectors with his small 6'0" frame, Berrios has continued to impress in 2015. Recently earning a promotion to Triple-A, the Puerto Rican owns a 3.49 ERA and a 9.4 K/9 across two levels this season. Of the three players, only Berrios could be had for the perfect deal. Acquiring a shortstop like Troy Tulowitzki, or a catcher such as Jonathan Lucroy, it would seem to reason Berrios would be the starting point.
    The Ceiling Types
     
    After the big three, the Twins top prospects take on somewhat of a different look. Rather than presenting an already projectable cornerstone type of talent, the Twins have three first round picks that still have the promise of being an organizational influencing talent going forward.
     
    Considering first those drafted by the Twins, we come across both Nick Gordon and Kohl Stewart. Gordon has scuffled at times for Low-A Cedar Rapids, but that was expected. He's seen as an All Star caliber shortstop with Gold Glove ability. His bat will take time, but he recently put together a nice 17 game hit streak in which he slashed .333/.360/.417.
     
    Stewart has been a little bit more disappointing in 2015. After working through a throwing program to strengthen his arm in the offseason, the results haven't provided what would have been hoped. The Texan owns a respectable 3.26 ERA but has struck out batters at just a 4.6 K/9 clip while walking 3.3 per nine. Long term, there's still plenty to hope for here, as he's just 20.
     
    Lastly in this group is a first round guy that the Twins traded for. Alex Meyer was at one time regarded as a top of the rotation starter. He's since been demoted to the bullpen and owns a 7.56 ERA since being sent back to Triple-A after 2.2 IP with the big club. He's 25 and needs to turn things around soon, but the Twins could be motivated to allow him to do so somewhere else.
     
    Moving on from ceiling prospects generally is going to involve a significant return. Outside of Meyer being 25, these types have development and projectability often on their side. Knowing they could be an organizational calling card in a few years makes them incredibly valuable.
     
    The Poker Chips
     
    Creativity aside, this definition does justice for virtually all of these players. Depth of the Twins farm system aside, most of these types are going to be players the Twins hope to cash in on in one way or another. Most organizations around baseball have these types of players down on the farm, but the Twins simply have more of them at their disposal. Flaws here or there provide boom or bust material, but they are definitely not just a throw in to any deal either.
     
    I mentioned the Twins have plenty of poker chips at their disposal, and the names span Stephen Gonsalves, Jorge Polanco, Adam Brett Walker, Max Kepler, Jake Reed, and Nick Burdi. With each of those mentioned having different strengths and weaknesses, the Twins can get creative in any deal they would be putting together.
    Of the grouping, you'd be hard pressed not to suggest Polanco is the cream of the crop. A projectable bat who will hit at the next level, he's a second basemen forced to play out of position, and he's not very good at it. Polanco has already debuted with the Twins, but he was recently promoted to Triple-A. He's hit .300/.341/.397 across two minor league levels this season. The issue is that he's committed 23 errors in just 77 games, and it's only going to get tougher at the next stop. Big name deals will likely take a long look at Polanco as well.
     
    Max Kepler and Stephen Gonsalves would probably be argued to have some of the higher values at this level as well. Both are players many organizations have similar types to, but the Twins have watched them succeed to great lengths in 2015. Kepler owns a .336/.415/.528 line at Double-A and has looked ready for a promotion for some time. Gonsalves was promoted to High-A earlier this season and owns a 2.50 ERA in seven starts since his callup. He's a lefty and he stikes people out (10.1 career K/9 in 185 minor league innings).
    Both Reed and Burdi are types the Twins would likely rather not trade, but would have hoped to see more from. College relievers expected to help the big league club this year, Burdi has been demoted back to High-A while Reed has struggled since starting strong at Double-A. They could be targets in a deal, but no doubt that Minnesota would rather see them put it together for their own pen.
     
    One of the most talked of names this year has been Adam Brett Walker. He defines poker chip in the greatest sense. Known for his impressive power stroke, Walker has mashed 25 longballs at Double-A this season. The problem is, he's striking out at an incredible rate down on the farm (138 K and just 26 walks). He's got an incredibly long way to go before he's Mark Reynolds or Chris Carter at the big league level, and at 23, he may never make it.
     
    When trading these types of players, it's about adding to your own pocket. Every organization has their own poker chips, but the more you have, the better the odds you are able to cash in. They aren't going to be the lone trade piece, but they're much more than a throw in.
    The Long Shots
     
    This set of three players is somewhat interesting as it offers a little bit of everything. There's no doubt some high upside here, but as they ascend towards the big leagues, they could definitely end of being the exciting piece of a deal that went nowhere for their new team.
     
    Starting with the guy having a great year, Chih-Wei Hu has impressed for High-A Fort Myers. Owning a 2.20 ERA across 13 starts, he strikes out a modest 7.9 per nine. In a spot start for Triple-A Rochester, Hu tossed six innings of two hit ball to grab the win. He's 21 and has an exciting ceiling, but there's plenty of development left there.
    Jumping up to Double-A, and to a position the Twins need to upgrade, Stuart Turner has been anything but the catcher they believed he could be. A defensive stud who they hoped a bat would develop, Turner is slashing just .247/.317/.351 in 192 minor league games. He could be another organizations Drew Butera right now probably, but Minnesota will need more starting behind the dish.
     
    Rounding out the group is a relative high ceiling type in Amaurys Minier. He's young, 19, and he's raw. Now playing at Elizabethton, Minier is working through some early struggles. He does however have two home runs and 13 RBI in his first 20 games, and he's a prospect many of the national types see as having real power potential.
    This grouping could round out a trade either for a big name acquisition, or a lesser, but more immediate need. They have definite value both to the organization and in the form of a trade, but it's hard to say how or when that comes to fruition.
    The Meaningful Majors
     
    The Twins are likely going to be buyers at the trade deadline, but that doesn't mean their 25 man roster is off limits (or those who find themselves just squeezed off of it). You won't find Mike Pelfrey or Tommy Milone here (the former has no trade value anyways), but the team controlled types with more to offer definitely will bring a return.
     
    Breaking out as expected this season, Kyle Gibson has been nothing short of spectacular in 2015. Owning a 2.85 ERA across 18 starts, Gibson has also improved his strikeout rate up to 6.2 per nine. His 4.00 FIP could cause teams reason for pause, but he could be equally as coveted as a Berrios type.
     
    Sent to the bullpen, despite being one of the Twins best pitchers, Trevor May would have definite appeal to other clubs. In his last six starts before converting to relief, May owned a 3.23 ERA across 30.2 IP. He also led the Twins rotation in strikeouts. A former top prospect on his own and under team control until 2021, May has plenty going for him.
    The white elephant in this pool is the castoff outfielder Oswaldo Arcia. Lacking drive at points this season, Arcia has lit Triple-A on fire. In his last 16 games, he owns a .322/.403/.780 slash line with eight home runs and 19 RBI. It's mind boggling as to why he isn't punching balls out of the park for the Twins, but there's little reason to believe another team wouldn't make use of his services.
     
    Of those mentioned, only Gibson would likely be able to be a feature piece in any big trade. Arcia and may are both great options to pair with some other pieces, but you can bet any suitor will be looking for a bit more. What's important to remember is that while buying, the Twins have some expendable depth even at the highest level.
    At the end of the day, the trade deadline is something to approach with a heightened sense of understanding. Nearly every team in the big leagues has the pieces to acquire the same players your favorite team does, knowing which pieces are worth what, and more importantly, which ones aren't worth what you think, is the defining line between fantasy and reality.
    Minnesota is entering a critical stretch in deciding what they will do at the end of the month. Don't miss the next handful of games, because it should determine how the end of the Twins summer takes shape.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    A season ago, the Minnesota Twins lost 90 games, finished dead last in the AL Central, and watched as longtime manager Ron Gardenhire got the heave-ho. In the middle of all of the negativity however, there were three players who contributed at a level that could not have been imagined. Fending off regression with every at bat, they helped to pace a bad Twins team. Now, as the expected regression has set in, they are at the root of many of the Twins problems.
    The most unlikely breakthrough candidate last year was the shortstop turned outfielder that put himself in the midst of the Rookie of the Year race. Danny Santana slashed .308/.343/.492 in 101 games with the Twins. Adding seven home runs and 40 RBI, Santana was incredibly productive at the plate. With Aaron Hicks struggling at the plate, it was Santana that would take over the centerfield role. Things were going great, but many advanced stats suggested it wasn't meant to be.
     
    Owning a .405 BABIP (Batting average on balls in play), Santana's success never seemed sustainable. On top of waiting for that hammer to fall, his outfield defense left plenty to be desired. Sure the speed was there, but playing out of position was relatively apparent. Santana owned a -2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and had a -5.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating). As a whole, it was smoke and mirrors at its finest.
    Fast forward a year, and everything has blown up at once. After winning the Opening Day shortstop spot, Santana has been demoted once and has been deserving of it happening a second time for quite a while. He's been worth a horrible -12 DRS and -4.8 UZR at what is considered his natural position. Santana has also 15 errors (5th in MLB), despite playing significantly less games than the rest of the group. His .221/.241/.306 line at the plate is nothing short of ugly as well.
     
    The perfect storm (or maybe imperfect) has hit for Santana, and left a gaping hole at shortstop. Not only can't Santana hit or field, but Minnesota is void of secondary options as well. While Eduardo Escobar is an upgrade, he's more backup material than anything. Jorge Polanco has the bat for big league action, but looks to be nearly as much of a defensive liability. Minnesota invested heavily in both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier, but neither are anywhere close to the big leagues. For now, Santana isn't the Twins shortstop of the future, and there isn't one in sight.
    From the middle of the diamond to the position behind it, Kurt Suzuki is also becoming a problem for the Twins. After playing out of his mind in 2014 and securing All Star honors, baseball has reversed course for the former Athletics backstop.
     
    Much like Santana, Suzuki was benefited by an out of whack BABIP. At .310 a year ago, Suzuki was enjoying the highest mark of his career. It help to push his slash line to an impressive .288/.345/.383 mark. His 61 RBI were his best total since 2010, and the Twins locked in the veteran with a two year extension.
    Considering the market for capable veteran catchers, the new deal wasn't exactly the problem. Between the extensive regression, and the lack of development, Minnesota now finds themselves in a bad spot however. Suzuki was not going to keep his 2014 pace, but his .225/.283/.300 2015 slash line is ugly. He continues to be a bad defensive catcher and has been worth -3 DRS on the season. Throwing out just 19% of base runners on the year, he's one of the worst receivers in the big leagues.
     
    Minnesota has watched as Stuart Turner has failed to develop at Double-A, batting just .206/.292/.291, and Josmil Pinto has been unable to stay healthy at Triple-A. With the farm being void of options, the combination of extending what is now a horrible catcher, and having nothing to pair him with, has become disastrous.
    Rounding out the problematic group of regression is none other than another young phenom, Kennys Vargas. After bursting onto the scene during the Future's Game at Target Field, Vargas was inserted into the Twins lineup to provide some pop. The first basemen was promoted from Double-A and went on to hit .274/.316/.456 with nine home runs across just 53 big league games.
     
    Unlike the first two candidates on this list, Vargas wasn't seen as such a significant cause for concern when it came to taking a step back this year. What he has done however has no doubt hurt the club that counted on him being a power bat as the DH in the middle of the lineup. Batting just .245/.277/.365 in 47 games, the Twins have demoted Vargas twice (with the most recent being all the way to Double-A).
    The Twins made a pretty big mistake in demoting Vargas the first time in the midst of the young slugger figuring things out. However, he has since not been able to rebound and continues to be the power bat the Twins wished they would have been able to make work. In a lineup struggling to score runs, the power that was believed to be there with Vargas is haunting Minnesota more nights than it isn't.
    As an organization, the Twins are still in a good place. They are competing a year before they should be, and they have some good pieces going forward. With the regression of three players holding down key roles however, Minnesota must address the problems before they can take what might end up being the vital next step. There doesn't appear to be answers for either of the first two from within, and salvaging the third should be a priority. As the Twins look to complete their turnaround, these storylines will remain worth monitoring.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    Generally, lights out relievers are hard to come by. While you can put together a makeshift bullpen in hopes of finding things that work, the really good ones often get hung onto. With the emergence of closer importance for teams, seeing the Craig Kimbrel's and Aroldis Chapman's of the big leagues dealt on a yearly basis often doesn't happen.
    On July 18, 2014, it did happen though.
     
    A guy with a 2.78 career ERA, 299 saves, and a 9.0 K/9 was sent packing. Not only are those great numbers for a bullpen guy, but they rank amongst some of the best when it comes to closers. That pitcher was the San Diego Padres Huston Street. In being sent to the Los Angeles Angels, the Padres expected a return, and that's exactly what they got.
    The Padres welcomed the Angels number one, six, and eighth best prospects, as well as fourth top 20 inclusion (per FanGraphs). In retrospect, the Angels fleeced the bulk of their already mediocre farm system in return for elite level back end of the bullpen help.
     
    So, why does this matter? Last season, the Twins dangled the idea of dealing their home grown closer. To be fair, I was even on board with the idea (sadly). Without a doubt, the lack of a move, may go down as one of the best decisions in Twins history.
    For a losing team, and one in it's fourth year of significant losing, having a great closer seems like somewhat of a luxury. Even when 30 or more saves get racked up, does it really matter in the context of 90 losses. What about making the farm system even stronger for when the winning returns? Sure it would look like a bad move after just extending Perkins a contract extension, but who cares right?
     
    The Twins put their foot down, they said no. No to dealing the local product. No to selling of a irreplaceable asset. No to all of it, and now, Perkins is making them feel great about the decision all over again.
    Sure, Perkins was a very good closer last season. Late in the year injury problems inflated his ERA, but his 34 saves and 9.6 K/9 were some of the best marks of his career. He was coming off a 36 save season in 2013, a 2.30 ERA, an 11.1 K/9 mark, his first All Star Game appearance, and that shiny new four-year, $22.18 million contract. Nothing he did last season though could have prepared the Twins for what was to come.
     
    There was a spring training injury scare, but Perkins insisted he was good to go this season. He wasn't going to miss time, and he was ready to compete. Glen Perkins was right.
    In 2015, Perkins is 28-28 in save opportunities and leads the American League in that category. He's walking batters at a career best 1.2 BB/9 rate and his 0.830 WHIP is the best of his career. Not only is his season impressive, but Perkins recent run has been impressive as well. He's yet to give up a run since May 31 (a stretch of 14 games and 14.1 IP). In that timeframe, Perkins has struck out 15, walked just two, allowed only four hits, and picked up 10 saves.
     
    Unlike other back end of the bullpen options, Perkins does it differently. Having thrown just four pitches 96 miles per hour or faster this season, it's his slider that has been devastating. Used a career high (as a closer) 26.7% of the time, Perkins has kept hitters off balance and outworked them at the plate.
    Now fresh off his third straight trip to the midsummer classic, Glen Perkins looks every bit the part of one of the best in team history. Tying Eddie Guardado for third on the list right before the All Star break, he will set his sights on Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan as the season draws on.
     
    With his current pace set at 51 saves when the season comes to an end, Perkins is targeting what would be a tie for the 9th best single-season mark in Major League Baseball history. While an uphill battle, Perkins has overcome being a failed starter, a timeshared reliever, and an injured closer to boast the best season of his career.
    It's pretty safe to say dealing Glen Perkins is the best trade the Twins never made. At 32, signed through 2017, and with no intention of playing anywhere else, Perkins should have Twins fans on their feet in the 9th for years to come.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    A year ago, on a rainy night in downtown Minneapolis, some of the biggest sluggers took center stage for the 2014 Home Run Derby. While the Minnesota twins and Target Field were no doubt excited to play host to All Star week, there's no doubt that the playing conditions were going to be adverse on this night. When the dust settled, Yoenis Cespedes reigned supreme, and massive shots were hit, but the event still felt stale.
     
    Forget the fact that inclement weather pushed the action back, or that hometown selection Brian Dozier was lost amongst his slugging peers. As many other years before it, the Home Run Derby once again seemed to have worn out its welcome.
     
    Fast forward on the calendar and Major League Baseball was reinventing the rules once again. After creating the bracket a season ago, the event now resembled something like the NBA's Three Point contest. As a timed event, players were no longer given the luxury of standing around to wait for that meatball pitch. In theory it sounded like a wonderful idea, and what was even better, that's exactly how it played out.
     
    With a stacked field, there was already plenty of intrigue. Having youth rounded out by the old guard in the form of Albert Pujols made sure there was a competitor for everyone to get behind. My money (quite literally) wagon punishing phenom Joc Pederson. The combination of a lefty and long home runs seemed too good to pass up.
     
    Quickly in the competition however, it was plain to see there were going to be more strategical tactics to consider. While the blasts over 420 feet (original set for 475) would give hitters bonus time, they also would take precious seconds off of a winding clock. Going second was going to provide obvious advantages in knowing your target mark, and even stamina would come into play for the sluggers.
     
    Thanks to the way in which baseball had set this new contest up, intrigue was there from the get go. Hometown hero Todd Frazier knocked favorite, Prince Fielder out at the buzzer in the first round. Peterson blew by Manny Machado, and Pujols bested the kid in Kris Bryant. Just one round in, this was shaping up to be a lot of fun.
     
    As both Frazier and Pederson continued on, the finals were set with the most interesting matchup of the night. Pederson was punishing baseballs with the heaviest bat (34/34) in the field, while Frazier was launching rockets out of the park. Thanks to his bonus time, it would be the Reds own Frazier that would hoist the trophy when all was said and done.
     
    Thanks to the timed round, we all witnessed one of the greatest Home Run Derby performances ever, and likely didn't even notice. In 2008, Josh Hamilton hit 28 first round homers in Yankees Stadium. He went on to total 35 and lose to the Twins Justin Morneau. Being able to take breaks and take pitches, Hamilton still wore down over the course of a contest that was simply too long.
     
    Last night, the Reds Frazier went 14-10-14 to a total of 38 home runs. In history, it is Fielder who owns the most derby homers with 81. Frazier nearly halved that amount in a night. With the pressure to keep swinging staying constant, the derby itself became evolving dram right before our eyes.
     
    I expected this season's rendition of the event to be more fun, I didn't think I'd be counting down the days to next year's contest immediately following the end however. Major League Baseball got this one absolutely right, and we are all better for it. Now for ESPN to just take away "Back, back, back, back, back" and Chris Berman. One change at a time I suppose.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    We have officially hit the All Star Break in Major League Baseball, and while the stretch run is where the pretenders and contenders are sorted out, the Twins are currently one of the best teams in baseball. It feels odd to say, given what expectations were, and what results have been, but it rings absolutely true. At the break, Minnesota owns the second best record in the American League, and their own best mark since 2008. It's no longer too early to suggest the playoffs are in sight.
    44, 40, 36, and 41, those are the win totals for Minnesota at the break over the last four seasons. Each of those years, the Twins went on to lose 90 or more games. It's probably not fair to compare a winning team to those of futility, so take a look back to 2010 when Minnesota last won the AL Central with 94 wins. At the All Star Break, Ron Gardenhire's Twins checked in at 46-42, or behind their current pace for those playing along at home.
     
    Coming into the season, the Twins had plenty of question marks. They were viewed as a year or two before making their turnaround, Paul Molitor was a first year manager, and the big free agent signing made to bolster the pitching staff was shelved before meaningful games even started. At the artificial halfway point, the Twins have answered more questions than they haven't, and it's now fair to start to wonder just how far they can climb.
    Pitching was going to once again be something to monitor for Minnesota. finishing in the doldrums of Major League Baseball in virtually every pitching category in recent years, changes needed to be made. As things stand, Minnesota owns the 15th best ERA in the big leagues, and both Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone rank amongst the top 15 ERA leaders in the American League. Twins starters have combined for 789.2 IP as well as 45 quality starts, again putting them right in the middle of the pack.
     
    The results have been accomplished along the same lines as the Twins have become synonymous with however. Pitching to contact, Twins starters have allowed a .269 BAA (28th in MLB), and struck out just 537 batters (last in MLB). It's not smoke and mirrors, but rather pounding the strike zone and making opposing hitters beat them, a strategy that has thus far panned out.
    At points this season, the Twins offense looked like it was in need of a boost. With Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia struggling, the pop has since come from a second basemen and a 40 year old. Brian Dozier is having an MVP caliber season, and his 18 home runs put him on pace to be the first Twins player to reach 30 home runs since Josh Willingham in 2012. Torii Hunter has been every bit the defensive liability he was imagined, but his bat (14 HR 49 RBI 15 2B) has produced at a vintage level.
     
    While winning, the Twins have also been afforded the opportunity to usher in the future. Eddie Rosario has played an excellent outfield for Minnesota, and his .284 average is amongst the best on the ballclub. Byron Buxton was able to debut prior to the All Star Break (and should be back not too long after it), and Miguel Sano has set the world on fire.
    In fact, instead of needing to deal for another Kendrys Morales type bat this season, the Twins traded with themselves in inserting Sano into the lineup. In his first 11 games, he's hit two home runs, driven in eight, doubled four times, and raced out to a .378/.489/.649 slash line. His power was expected to play, but Sano has been every bit the elite prospect he was billed to be.
     
    Looking down the line at the rest of the season, the Twins future has become much more clear. With far fewer questions looming, they can focus on two keys principles. First, the organization must make a trade for some bullpen help. So far, Molitor has pieced the back end of his bullpen together, and it's starting to blow up big time.
    Blaine Boyer has given the Twins more than they could have imagined, but he's on pace to be one of the most taxed relievers in all of baseball. Brian Duensing and Casey Fien have been up and down, and Minnesota has filled in the gaps with different pieces at a revolving door pace. In fact the only sure thing in the Twins pen is All Star closer Glen Perkins. Having saved 28 of 28 opportunities, he owns a sparkling 1.21 ERA in 37.1 IP. Perkins 8.68 K/9 is also amongst the best on the club for the Twins, but he no doubt needs help.
     
    Minnesota has one of the best farm system in all of the big leagues, and dealing some depth for a quality pen arm is a must. Bringing in someone to act as a true setup man would bridge the gap from the starters to Perkins, and no doubt afford Molitor and Minnesota a few more late inning wins.
    The second focus for the Twins is to view the postseason as their new reality. Every team sets that as a goal at the beginning of the year, or at least says so. Now for the first time in recent memory, the Twins are able to act on that. Key injuries to both the Royals and Tigers have opened a door that Minnesota must step through. Having played Kansas City and Detroit both to a 5-8 record, an evening out needs to occur.
     
    At 49-40, Minnesota is just 4.5 back of the Royals while being 4.5 clear of the Tigers. In the wild card race, Minnesota owns the top spot, and is three games clear of the Tampa Bay Rays. Keeping pace in the division with the Royals should no doubt be the goal, and it's hard to imagine the Central not sending two teams to play October baseball.
    .500 would have been a great place for this Twins team to be this season, thanks to the start however, that mark is now in the rear view mirror. Minnesota is poised for the postseason, Target Field is electric once again, and the Twins hold a lot of the cards in their own hands. Buckle up, it's going to be a fun ride.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    Injuries are never good, and cheering for an opposing player to go down is not something anyone would advocate for. However, they are an inevitability in the world of sports,and the Twins have a big opportunity thanks to two recent maladies.
    Both the Tigers and the Royals were bit by the injury bug in a bad way recently. Detroit watched stay first basemen Miguel Cabrera head to the disabled list for the first time in his career. Early indications suggest he could be out into September. The hurt at the top of the AL Central doesn't stop there however. Twins killer Alex Gordon also has wound up on the DL and will be there for at least the next 8 weeks.
     
    It's pretty hard to overstate how integral both of these players are for their respective teams. Cabrera and the Tigers are currently in 3rd in the AL Central race. They trail the Twins by just 1.5 games and are 8-2 against Minnesota on the season. Cabrera owns a .350/.456/.578 slash line and has hit 15 round trippers to go with 54 RBI. Just two years removed from winning the Triple Crown, he is every bit the same scary hitter he has been over the course of his career.
    For the Royals, Alex Gordon offers value in a different form. Instead of being a beast with the bat, he gets it done with his glove. Gordon is hitting .279/.2394/.457 (one of the best lines of his career) and has added 11 home runs and 39 RBI. As mentioned though, it's in the field where Gordon will be missed. He's been worth 4 DRS (defensive runs saved) and owns a 7.9 UZR paired with a 15.7 UZR/150 rating. Watch enough Twins games against the Royals, and you've likely cursed Gordon taking away a sure base hit.
     
    Now nearing the All Star Break, push must come to shove for the Twins. Minnesota has tread water for quite some time. After a blistering May, Minnesota ran into an ugly month of June. Thanks to losing streaks by Detroit and Kansas City though, the Twins held serve. With both of those teams missing key cogs, it's time to start taking advantage.
    The twins split with the Royals to open the month despite the fact that they were in position to win all four games. In the first matchup of the month against the Tigers, a late inning meltdown led to yet another failed opportunity to capitalize. If the Twins want to climb the standings, and create some distance, it will start by reversing the fortunes of a 2-8 record against the Tigers.
     
    With Minnesota not facing either division rival again until September, it will be on them to handle their own business. It's a pretty good bet that both Detroit and Kansas City will experience a downturn with their injuries. While Cabrera and Gordon are out, the Twins must set themselves up for a good September.
    Minnesota will need to make some adjustments before the trade deadline if they are going to stay in the race, but the biggest positive for the Twins may have come at the expense of their divisional foes.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Just under a month ago, I told you that Brian Dozier is entering elite territory amongst Major League Baseball. Since that time, Dozier has done nothing but squash my silly notion. Instead of entering elite territory, he instead has defined what elite is amongst Major League Baseball. At this point, you're probably wrong about the Twins second basemen, and so is the league itself.
    We are less than a week away from the midsummer classic. Major League Baseball has unfortunately pinned World Series implications on the exhibition, and while many players still overlook that sentiment, the fact is that this does count. Expecting fans voting solely for the biggest names or their favorite jerseys isn't going to draw rave results, but it's probably time Major League Baseball is held accountable.
     
    As the fan voting took place for the All Star Game in Cincinnati this year, we watched as the Royals fans came out of the woodwork and make a mockery of the system. Even the Kauffman faithful had to find humor in the fact that their .231/.240/.307 slashing second basemen was pacing a portion of the voting. While it isn't unexpected to have snubs on the starting level, it's pretty ugly that manager Ned Yost failed to get it right as well.
    Last season, the Minnesota Twins watched Brian Dozier blossom before their eyes. Going from a relative unknown, to one of the most surprising power hitters in the game, Dozier was given some national relevance in the Home Run Derby. While it was the consolation prize for an All Star appearance he was more than qualified for, it was a stepping stone.
     
    After being amongst the best in the big leagues in runs scored, and securing a shiny new 4-year, $20 million contract, how would Dozier respond? The answer is by continuing to be the best second basemen in baseball and it's not particularly close. Dozier's 7.6 WAR since the beginning of 2014 ranks above all other qualifiers, and Houston's Jose Altuve is next closest with a 6.7 mark.
    On the season, Dozier leads the big leagues in runs scored (63) and is on pace for career highs in doubles, triples, hits, home runs, runs batted in, batting average and OPS. In fact, it's actually that last number that might be most impressive when looking at the Twins second basemen.
     
    Often times, detractors will point to Dozier's average as a reason why he shouldn't be regarded amongst the games best. Despite his .245 career mark (.260 in 2015), Brian Dozier's value at the plate goes far beyond the realm of simply second basemen.
     
    With an .849 OPS, the Twins second basemen lays claim to the 15th best mark in all of baseball. Of those 14 players ahead of him, the only not to be named All-Stars; Alex Rodriguez (.902) and Brett Gardner (.854, also in the final vote). When adjusting for ballparks with OPS+, Dozier falls just one spot to 16th. Should you choose to disregard numerical focuses, players behind Dozier in OPS include Jose Abreu, Dustin Pedroia, and Adam Jones.
    Bringing it back full circle to the context of the All Star Game, Dozier looks poised to be snubbed yet again in the Final Vote. Once again placing the duty on the fans, Dozier goes up against Xander Bogaerts, Yoenis Cespedes, Brett Gardener, and Mike Moustakas. If the initial vote was any indication as to how this Final Vote may go, the Royals Moustakas appears to have the edge.
     
    Looking at Moustakas, the biggest Dozier detractors are forced to come full circle. After scuffling through the first four seasons of his career, Moustakas has put it together for Kansas City. He's got seven home runs, 31 RBI, and is slashing .301/.357/.436. That last bit of information is the most important however. Despite hitting .41 points higher than Dozier, Moustakas owns an OPS (.793) a stout .56 points lower.
    It probably can't be made any clearer, Brian Dozier hitting for average absolutely, positively, does not matter. As long as he is getting on base, and generating extra base hits, the Twins second basemen will remain the best in baseball.
     
    At the end of the day, or maybe better said, the first half of the Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier was failed. He may not care on the surface whether or not he was included in a meaningless* exhibition, but the fans failing to acknowledge him failed, Ned Yost failed, and Major League Baseball failed.
    All Star Game aside, Brian Dozier continues to come to work, and get the job done. It's probably in all of our best interests to take notice sooner rather than later. Until then, he'll keep hitting walkoff shots and flipping his doubters the...bat.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Following the conclusion of the 2014 Major League Baseball season, longtime Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was shown the door. Although the four seasons of losing weren't all his fault, he did little to help the matter either. In his place, Paul Molitor took over. So far in 2015, results as a whole have been promising, but one area continues to be baffling.
    Why can't Molitor and the Twins just be happy playing their position? The main culprit, the outfield.
     
    Heading into the season, the Twins decided (as most major league teams do) to roll with a four man outfield. Jordan Schafer would start in center, flanked by Oswaldo Arcia in left and Torii Hunter in right. Shane Robinson would operate as the club's fourth outfielder. As a whole, that might have been one of the worst constructed outfields in recent memory, but that remains a different discussion.
    Molitor then decided to leave Aaron Hicks down in Rochester to start the season, and that turned out to be as much of an erroneous decision as should have been expected. As far as emergency or utility type player, the Twins brought Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez all north. Here is where the problem begins.
     
    Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield for the Twins, while Nunez and Santana have both played two a piece. In those games, the defense has been every bit as bad as you'd expect a player out of position to provide.
     
    Escobar has a -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) rating, as well as a -3.0 YZR (ultimate zone rating). Santana and Nunez haven't spent enough innings to factor in yet in 2015, but Santana was far from adequate a year ago. In 534 innings in centerfield during the 2014 season, Santana compiled an ugly -5.4 UZR. Of the group, only Nunez doesn't post negative numbers.
    Now forcing a player to be out of position on defense would almost exclusively have to suggest the offensive production is there. For the Twins though, that doesn't seem to be the case either. The most often played Escobar owns a poor .247/.281/.389 line, with Santana's .209/.233/.276 looking even uglier. In fact, only Nunez has shown a glimpse of offensive production with a .303/.346/.505 line.
     
    There's no doubt that everything can't fall on Molitor and odd decision making though. After all, Jordan Schafer redefined terrible, and Robinson is no doubt limited. Byron Buxton was called up and made it through just 11 games before being shelved for a month, and Aaron Hicks was also shelved for a brief period of time. At this point though, the complacency to make a move hurts the Twins.
    Already having suffered through poor outfield defense for much of the year, the Twins have shown little urgency to rectify the problem when the opportunity presents itself. The latest example revolves around Santana and Hicks.
     
    Now having played a handful of rehab games for Rochester, the Twins should have had Hicks on a plane back to join the big club at the first opportunity. With Santana overmatched at the plate, and a struggling outfielder, Hicks should be claiming his role. On top of that, Molitor had to lift Robinson after getting hit by a pitch, calling into question what his availability looks like.
    It's really rather unfair to point to the problem as a whole through the eyes of one or two examples. However, the fact that Eduardo Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield this year is a big enough issue. Showing an affinity to giving innings in the grass to players like Nunez and Santana on top of it only complicates things.
    Save Nunez for playing shortstop and giving guys around the infield a day off, and use your position players where they fit. When someone is hitting .319 with a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), it makes sense to push a square peg into a round hole. When a guy has a paltry OPS and is doing nothing for you offensively, stop trying to over think it.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins dropped yet another series today, this time at the hands of the NL Central Cincinnati Reds. Looking to take the rubber match against staff ace, Johnny Cueto, runs seemed as though they would be few and far between. With a lackluster lineup to start, Minnesota did themselves no favors throughout the contest. At the end of the game it was Kennys Vargas who took the fall with a demotion to Double-A Chattanooga.
    But really, is Vargas to blame at this point?
     
    Following an impressive performance at the Future's Game in 2014, the Twins called up the first of their hyped prospects in Vargas. Despite not having the ceiling of a Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton, he was supposed to give fans something to latch onto. A big bodied, "Baby Ortiz," Vargas profiled as a middle of the order slugger. With 59 minor league home runs under his belt, the jumped from Double-A was made.
    2014 was up and down for Vargas with the Twins, but slashing .274/.316/.772 in your first 53 big league games is nothing to scoff at. Throw in nine home runs and 38 RBI and the Twins had to be impressed with their young prospect. Unfortunately, 2015 was a different story for Vargas.
     
    Out of the gates, Vargas was forced to compete for the designated hitter role. Not being a good fielding first basemen, Vargas would battle for at bats with players like Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer on their off days. As the main DH, the Twins expected Vargas to provide the pop in the heart of the order. Getting off to an ugly .172/.232/.234 start in the month of April, Minnesota's patience was growing thin.
    As the calendar turned however, so did Vargas.
     
    May rolled around, and Kennys Vargas exploded to a .366/.395/.561 slash line. He contributed two home runs and six RBI through May 17 and he looked to be turning a corner. Then it happened, out of nowhere, the Twins sent Vargas back to Triple-A. Claiming he wasn't providing the power or run support they expected, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor sent the slugger back for some seasoning.
    Undoubtedly, Vargas needed to chase pitches less, and he had to get a better handle on offspeed stuff, but the timing seemed odd. At the height of a hot streak, Minnesota felt Vargas was best served with his first trip to Triple-A. Vargas took the demotion in stride, and he hit his way back to the big leagues. Unfortunately, not everything remained the same.
     
    Being brought back up to the big leagues on June 8, Vargas had to regain his rhythm that the club snatched away from him. 17 games went by, and Vargas slashed a paltry .235/.235/.373 with 17 strikeouts and no walks. He did homer twice and drive in five runs, but the player that was in May, seemed all but lost. After going 1-3 with a strikeout against the Reds and Cueto, the Twins had seen enough.
    Now headed back to Double-A Chattanooga, the Twins and Vargas are both left thinking what if? What if they wouldn't have messed with a power hitter in the midst of a hot streak? What if they would have stuck it out a little longer? What if Vargas wasn't promoted, to then be sent down two levels and further damage his confidence? It all remains as a handful of what ifs.
    For both Vargas and the Twins, salvaging whatever is possible in the shortest timeline has to be the goal. I'm not sure I see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term anyways, but there's not a worse path that the Twins could have taken to get there.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    In just a few more days, the Minnesota Twins will be afforded the opportunity to see their $55 million free agent acquisition in action. After serving his performance enhancing drug related suspension, Ervin Santana will rejoin the 25 man roster, and the starting rotation for the Twins. With the Twins pitching staff being where it is in 2015, what the Twins should expect from Santana remains somewhat of a mystery.
     
    After four years of futility from their starters, the Twins have seemingly turned a corner in 2015. No longer ranking at the bottom of the big leagues, Minnesota has finally opened a door that has afforded both more quality, and a higher quantity of starting pitchers. 16th in the majors when it comes to team ERA (3.87), and 8th in the American League, the Twins are in a much better place. Still dead last in the big leagues in strikeouts (439) and 27th in batting average against (.271), the Twins have plenty of reason to work towards continued improvement.
     
    It's fair to question how Santana plays into that equation however.
     
    As things stand currently, the Twins have some difficult decisions to make regarding the rotation. Phil Hughes is the staff ace, despite owning a 4.20 ERA. Hurt by the longball in 2015, Hughes has taken steps back, but is still a lock amongst the group for years to come. Kyle Gibson and Trevor May highlight the young core of the rotation. Both top draft picks, Gibson has been one of the club's best pitchers, and May has operated as the ace for the majority of the season. That leaves Mike Pelfrey and Tommy Milone.
     
    Pelfrey continues to defy odds and owns a club best 3.06 ERA. Despite striking next to no one out, Pelfrey continually has gotten the job done after being sent to the bullpen out of spring training. Milone was jettisoned to Triple-A Rochester earlier this season, and after tearing up the farm, he's been on fire since his return. In five games since his return Milone has thrown to the tune of a 2.03 ERA and .246/.288/.364 slash line against. So how does Santana fit?
     
    Most seem to be operating under the impression that it's Milone who could be sent packing. With team control, and the ability to send him back to Triple-A, the former Athletics pitcher possesses the most flexibility. Ideally, a trade of Pelfrey would happen, but there's no doubt his value is not high around the league. No matter who is moved out of the starting five however, the addition of Santana may not be what it seems.
     
    Last season, Santana pitched in the National League for the first time in his career. His 3.95 ERA was backed by a 3.39 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark. Despite being better than his final ERA suggested, Santana is far from a lights out pitcher. Owning a career 4.26 FIP in front of better fielding teams, there could be some cause for concern. Hovering around the high 3.00 ERA marks for the majority of his career, Santana's biggest asset to the Twins may be in his 7.2 career K/9, easily ranking amongst the best on the Twins staff.
     
    There's little doubt that Santana would fall under the category of being a quality arm added into the rotation. In recent seasons, the Twins have needed to push more quantity to the mound than anything. However, expecting Santana to come in and light the world on fire seems far fetched as well. Considering the staff has been pitching well of late, the shuffling of that chemistry and those arms could come at a cost for Minnesota.
     
    The Twins have a good problem in that they have more quality arms than they know what to do with. Right now though, Santana remains a wild card, and until Minnesota finds out exactly what he is going to bring, the hurt or gain from moving around Milone or another starter won't be felt.
     
    Despite being a long term concern, it's also fair to suggest this problem may again rear its head in September. Due to his suspension. Santana is not eligible to pitch in the postseason. Should the Twins remain in the hunt, another rotation shuffle would need to take place before playoff baseball kicks off. Inserting Milone or someone else back in Santana's spot after a demotion, and knowing production is immediately necessary, could also be a tough ask.
    Of course the Twins did the right thing this offseason in bringing in a proven veteran to bolster the staff. Santana sitting out though brings a lot of questions as a midseason addition, and the Twins are being forced to make a change that could definitely bring a result they weren't initially planning on.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    The time is now for the Minnesota Twins and Alex Meyer. On the heels of his recent promotion to the big leagues, Minnesota will now get to experience their return for Denard Span. With Meyer set to make his major league debut, there's no doubt that he wants to stick after his long awaited promotion. The good news, he should be expected to do just that.
    Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus ranked Alex Meyer as their 14th best prospect. At that time, he was still a starting pitcher, and that no doubt contributed to the high ceiling. Although he will debut with the Twins out of the pen, it's probably best to assume the door to the rotation isn't yet closed.
     
    After struggling to the tune of a 7.09 ERA and 41/24 K/BB ratio as a starter this season for Triple-A Rochester, it became apparent that the Twins would need to get creative. At 25 years old, there's no doubt that Meyer's "prospect" status was waning thin, and getting him to a competitive level in the big leagues was a must. If the rotation wasn't going to be the stepping stone to do so, the bullpen then made a lot of sense.
    With plenty of scouts and front office personnel believing that Meyer was always destined for the pen, the decision was pretty easy. Having an electric fastball, and the ability to ambush hitters late in games, the Twins could cash in on Meyer in another way. Since the transition down in Rochester, Meyer has proved that to be the case.
     
    On May 25, Meyer made his first relief appearance for the Red Wins. Throwing a perfect inning with two strikeouts, Meyer flashed a sign of things to come. Fast forward 16 innings and Meyer has compiled quite the impressive stat line. In 17.0 IP, Meyer has allowed just a .188/.268/.219 slash line while owning a 0.53 ERA striking out 20 and walking just six. His 10.6 K/9 would be easily the best mark in the bullpen (Glen Perkins would be closest owning an 8.31 K/9), and his decreased walk rate is great to see.
    For a team lacking the ability to strike batters out, Meyer becomes more than just another bullpen arm. Owning a career 10.3 K/9 across 394.0 minor league innings, his strikeout ability is more than substantiated. While command has always been his knock, Meyer has curbed some of those struggles in relief. Giving manager Paul Molitor a true asset in the bullpen, Meyer should be expected to be someone the Twins can lean on.
     
    Despite getting solid starting performances throughout the season, the Twins currently have pitchers with 8.22 (Brian Duensing) and 5.40 (Aaron Thompson) in their bullpen. Taking relief appearances away from pitchers clearly not capable of them, Meyer should be able to provide the Twins another added boost.
    Challenging for the top of the AL Central due to a hot start, a Twins team adding players like Byron Buxton, now Alex Meyer, and eventually Miguel Sano along the way, should contribute to an exciting summer. Although Meyer's promotion may not have come through the rotation as originally expected, he appears poised to contribute, and should be absolutely counted on to stick.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    June 14, 2015 a day that will forever go down as one of the most highly anticipated days in all of Minnesota Twins history. Byron Buxton, the Twins second overall pick, joined the big leagues to an exorbitant amount of fanfare. With only three Twins picks ever drafted higher (Tim Belcher, Johnny Ard, and Joe Mauer went first overall), Buxton was seen as the superhero the Twins needed. But what exactly are his superpowers?
    Now having spent just over a week in the big leagues, there has been mixed results. As with most prospects, expecting otherwordly production out of the gate is silly. After all, a young player is joining a league full of the best players in the world, and they have not yet seen that kind of competition. Expecting immediate success isn't a fair judgement, and suggesting a trip back down to the farm (stop being silly people) would also be counter productive.
     
    The fact of the matter is that for the first time since Joe Mauer, the Twins do have their superhero, but he needs to harness his powers.
    From the get go, some of them are going to play immediately. Against the Chicago White Sox on Monday night, Buxton flashed his two most impressive assets. On a dying liner to center, White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera decided to try and score from second base. Buxton likely smirked and chuckled, and then he unleashed. The throw strayed no further than eight feet from the ground and was an absolute missile to the plate. Cabrera was dead in his tracks, and Buxton put the big leagues on notice. His right appendage is nothing short of a cannon.
     
    Earlier in the same game, Buxton led off. It was the first time in his career that Byron would be given the opportunity, and manager Paul Molitor wanted him to ambush opposing pitcher John Danks. Buxton obliged at the plate and did just that. On a 2-0 fastball, Buxton went to right field with a looper than landed a few feet to the right of Avisail Garcia. Having already rounded first base by the time the ball hit the ground, Buxton galloped into second for a stand up double. A ball that was cut off before the gap, and had no business warranting extra bases, Buxton utilized unfairly. From somewhere in another galaxy, The Flash blushed at his competition.
    Major League Baseball scouts attempt to quantify super powers into five distinct categories. Buxton has shown that he is the prototype when it comes to speed, fielding, and arm strength. It's in hitting, and power that Buxton may find his kryptonite.
     
    A career .296/.380/.486 hitter through 263 minor league games, there's little doubt Buxton's bat will play at the highest level. However, it shouldn't be expected to do so right away. Over the course of his first 32 plate appearances, Buxton has worked a 3-1 count just twice, and a 2-1 count only five times. He's been ahead in the count just 38% of the time, and he's faced two-strike counts 53% of the time. For a guy working on brandishing an elevated hitting ability, he's fighting an uphill battle. Sometime in the not so distant future, he will hit but right now, that shouldn't be expected to be his game.
    In the power department, Buxton is adept if nothing else. While not Thor like, the Twins phenom put up 27 home runs in those 263 minor league games. At a 16 HR/162 game pace, Buxton can eventually be counted upon to contribute in the slugging department as well. Just 21, the frame can still add muscle. While he'll never be the Hulk, Buxton no doubt should have the ability to banish a few baseballs in his time.
     
    As a whole, the excitement and anticipation for the superhero known as Byron Buxton is absolutely warranted. It's time to stop talking about a possible trip back to the farm, and it would be best not to over manage the budding star. Know that a complete arsenal of weapons will come, but that currently only half of them should be expected to play. Allow Buxton to be what he is on the field and basepaths, and grow through the coming months.
    Minnesota no doubt has a star on its hands, and while he may have the simplicity of The Flash now, showing a patiently observing approach could soon produce Captain America in the most desirable Twins form.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    The calendar has already passed halfway through June and the 2015 Major League Baseball season is starting to take shape. Nearing the halfway point of the season, teams are starting to categorize themselves as contenders or pretenders. Right now, the Twins land somewhere in the middle, and while they may not be buyers at the trade deadline, they can improve from within. The biggest question though, is what they do with their $55 million dollar man.
    Over the winter, the Twins sought to address their lackluster starting pitching. A season ago, the Twins 4.57 team ERA ranked 29, or second to last, in all of Major League Baseball. Generally out of games before they started, Minnesota knew that pitching needed to start giving their offense a chance. In making a splash, the club signed free agent Ervin Santana.
    After spending a season with the Atlanta Braves in the National League, Santana was ready to return home to the American League. Having pitched the season before in the AL Central, the Twins were a relative comfort zone for the free agent. His career 4.48 ERA is indicative of a pitcher that can be a difference maker, but someone who still has some questions to answer. For the Twins though, he's a legitimate number two that should provide plenty of value.
    Now coming to the end of a 50 game suspension due to performance-enhancing drug use, Santana is nearing the day that he can rejoin the fold. After the Twins jettisoned Jordan Schafer, the club has an open 40 man roster spot for their high dollar pitcher. However, how does the ninth best pitching team in the American League (3.84 team ERA) accommodate him?
    It's probably safe to consider both Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson locks to stay in the rotation. Despite Hughes' struggles in 2015, he's still seen as the staff ace. Hughes 4.79 ERA is dented by his inability to control the longball this season. After giving up just 16 home runs all of last season, he's allowed 15 through June 19.
    Gibson has been one of the early season bright spots. Despite a tough outing his last time out, the Twins former first rounder owns a 3.33 ERA and has been one of the American League's best pitchers in the early going. His strikeout and walk numbers virtually match his career lines, and despite his 4.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), he should be counted on to keep his roll going.
    Owning the middle ground is rookie Trevor May. A 4.26 ERA probably doesn't do justice to just how good May has looked at times. Despite a few tougher starts, he's looked every bit a top of the rotation type. His 7.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 are both great, and his 3.16 FIP suggests he should only continue to improve. Whether or not the Twins see him as locked in, the reality is that he should be.
    Arguably the toughest to dissect of the group is Mike Pelfrey. Going from a rotation snub, to the bullpen, and back into the rotation, Pelfrey has been the club's best pitcher this season. It's hard to include him as a lock because he seems to make us continually hold our breath, yet suggesting he's middle of the road with his current numbers is also not doing him justice. A 2.97 ERA is going to be tough to sustain while striking out right around four batters a game, but the Twins absolutely have to ride the wave until it crashes.
    That leaves recently reinstated starter Tommy Milone. Of the group, Milone is probably the least likely to have success in the bullpen. A soft tossing lefty, Milone absolutely dominated Triple-A after being sent down earlier this year. In his three starts since rejoining the big league club, Milone owns a 2.37 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters just a .236 batting average against him.
    In short, the question becomes, where does Ervin Santana fit?
    There's absolutely no doubt that the Twins need to find a place for him in their rotation. It's also a great thing that we are having to ask this question, rather than be able to point to three different pitchers that don't belong.
    Santana is making the first of what will be three starts for Triple-A Rochester on Saturday. Over the course of the next week and a half, Minnesota will be evaluating their staff as a whole, and trying to answer the big question.
    While I don't envy the decision makers in this situation, the reality is that as a whole, the Twins staff still is a bit more quantity than quality. Santana should boost the quality aspect, and the Twins will know the have depth when they need it. I'd look at inserting Santana in the place of Milone, knowing that if and when Pelfrey blows up, you have an option you can immediately turn to.
    Regardless of what happens, this is a position the Twins have not found themselves in for at least the past four seasons. Quality pitching had become a thing of the past, but this club, under Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, it turning over a welcomed new leaf.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are in the midst of interleague play for the second time this season. Instead of cramming all of the fun into a designated week or two over the summer, Major League Baseball reconstructed the scheduled to allow American and National League teams to clash throughout the season. As Minnesota has now traveled and hosted National League teams, we have seen both the beauty and brokenness of the tradition.
     
    As the Twins traveled to Pittsburgh in May, both Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey were subjected to the silliness that is a league without a DH. Nolasco faired worse flailing through three different at bats on route to a three strikeout game, while Pelfrey totaled two base hits raising his career average to a paltry .105.
     
    After welcoming the Brewers to Target Field, it was again in St. Louis that Twins pitchers would be forced to brandish a bat. This time it was Trevor May and Kyle Gibson at the plate. The pair combined to go 1-3 (the hit being Gibson's) with a strikeout (being May's). While first year manager Paul Molitor got creative and batted his pitchers 8th this time around, the offensive production from the position remained a black hole.
     
    On the flip side, fans at Target Field have and will get to see the beauty of a National League team playing with the designated hitter. The Cardinals were able to use slugger and everyday shortstop Jhonny Peralta as their designated hitter for the day. The bigger prize for both National League lovers and Twins fans is yet to come however.
     
    Over the weekend, the Twins will play host to the Chicago Cubs. Never mind the parallels that connect the Twins and Cubs as two franchises trending in very similar directions, but the Cubs bring plenty of intrigue on their own. Already promoted this season, top prospects Kris Bryant and Addison Russell will be on full display in front of Target Field. On top of that, and because of the DH, Twins fans will get an early glimpse at another phenom, Kyle Schwarber.
     
    During the same week that Byron Buxton was promoted by the Twins, Chicago decided to bring Schwarber up from Double-A Tennessee in order to serve as their designated bat through interleague play. Schwarber trails Twins prospect Adam Brett Walker in minor league home runs with 13, but he brings a .320/.438/.579 power stick to the show. Although Theo Epstein has insisted that the Cubs will send him packing after the tour is over, it is the DH that makes it all possible.
     
    Rather than digress to far into why the DH should be universally accepted (and it should) I will instead point you to this article. Whether for or against the designated hitter, the argument seems clear. A flailing pitcher who may provide a manager with some tougher decisions is still less beneficial for the sport than a player who can accomplish the set goal at the plate, to hit.
     
    Minnesota will welcome the Cubs over the weekend, and then head to Milwaukee and Cincinnati the following week before wrapping up interleague action. When the dust settles though, it will be hard to argue that the clash with the NL Central in 2015 wasn't for the betterment of the season, and that interleague play didn't provide some fun.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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