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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2015 Minnesota Twins returned to relevance for the first time since the 2010 Major League Baseball season. After a rocky first few games, a spring run put Paul Molitor's club in a great position down the stretch. Not being eliminated from playoff contention until the final weekend hampered Minnesota from exploring some less entrenched options, but no one was a by-product of that reality more than Michael Tonkin.
     
    Last season, the Twins jumped down a rabbit hole that has now begun to come full circle. Employing the worst bullpen in the big leagues by multiple statistical measures, they left a lot of things unanswered. One of the biggest misses of those "things" was whether or not Michael Tonkin can be effective at the big league level.
    A season ago, Tonkin was a 25 year old pitching at Triple-A Rochester. On the season, he posted a 1.10 ERA along with a 10.1 K/9 and walked just 1.1 batters per nine innings. After a 2.80 ERA in 2014 at Triple-A, it appeared pretty apparent that Tonkin was ready for a new challenge.
     
    In "understanding" that, the Twins called upon him. In fact, they did so five different times. During the 2015 season, Tonkin was promoted to Minnesota on five different occasions (meaning he was demoted as well). Of those five promotions, two of them lasted just one game, while a third was played out over the course of four appearances. In total, Tonkin gave the Twins 23.1 IP to the tune of a 3.47 ERA and a 7.3 K/9. Those numbers were all compiled while the Twins learned little to nothing about what they had, and in turn, Tonkin about himself.
     
    Sure, Minnesota was in the midst of a competitive season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, but does that really excuse things? Remember, the Twins owned one of the big leagues worst bullpens a season ago. A.J. Achter, Tim Stauffer, and Aaron Thompson were given a combined total of 60.2 IP despite none of them owning better than a 5.00 ERA. Brian Duensing, owner of a 4.25 ERA and a 4.4 K/9 threw 48.2 IP for the 2015 Twins, and Casey Fien pumped a 5.83 K/9 rate during his 63.1 IP. To summarize, Minnesota chose to give struggling and low ceiling options more run than instead to figure out what they may be sitting on.
     
    That leads us to where we are now. Over the course of spring training, Tonkin did everything he could to not make the club. Despite being what seemed to be a roster lock thanks to being out of options, the 26 year old generated a 7.88 ERA across 8.0 IP. The small sample size makes numerical conclusions difficult, but he gave up earned runs in four of his seven appearances, and had as many games result in multi-hit appearances. A team looking to improve upon a bad bullpen wouldn't have carried Tonkin, but the Twins saw their hands tied as they still don't know what they have.
     
    At the break of spring training, ESPN 1500's Derek Wetmore asked me if I believed Tonkin would be claimed on waivers, and if so, I would be ok with it. I answered that I thought there was better than a 50% chance he would be, and that it wouldn't necessarily bother me. From a roster standpoint, the Twins relief options on the farm are some of the best in all of baseball. There's reason to believe that the pen is overhauled and turned into an area of strength. From the notion of how Tonkin was handled however, it would be troubling.
     
    In selecting Ricky Nolasco for the rotation, Minnesota spared Tonkin a roster spot. It absolutely should be Tyler Duffey pitching among the five, and Nolasco in the pen, but in handling things the way they did, the Twins once again put Tonkin in an odd spot. Now on the roster as a carryover, Tonkin is being asked to pitch in a long relief role.
    Thus far in his career (60 MLB games) Tonkin has thrown more than 25 pitches just 10 times. Minnesota elected to stretch him out on the Saturday before Opening Day, he threw 53 pitches. In doing so, Tonkin was not available for the rain delayed (per Derek Wetmore and relayed by Curse Of Punto), and didn't make his debut in his new role.
     
    What things have boiled down to with Michael Tonkin is a really unfortunate narrative. A guy that excelled at the highest level of the farm system the past two years was never given an opportunity to produce, is now being included out of necessity, and is being utilized in a less than favorable role. Sure, things could all work out wonderfully, but could there have been a more backwards way of going about it?
    I definitely don't think so.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    As the 2016 Major League Baseball season kicked off, there were plenty of different narratives for this version of the Minnesota Twins. Questions about the bullpen and youth were present, but there was one position that was absolutely cemented in. Paul Molitor had no doubts about who his shortstop was going to be this season, Eduardo Escobar had taken care of those questions.
     
     
    Prior to the 2015 season, Escobar was locked into a competition with Danny Santana as to who would take over as the Twins starting shortstop. There was plenty of reason to believe in Santana's capabilities, and I was among that group. What Escobar did during the 2015 season however, was more than deserving enough on its own, and coupled with how horrid Santana was, it became apparent who the Twins best shortstop was.
     
    What Escobar did was nothing short of eye-opening. From the All Star Break on, Eduardo slashed .269/.330/.486 while clobbering eight homer runs, contributing 19 doubles, and driving in 29 runs. On the year, Escobar slugged .445, which (had he qualified) would have ranked second among all major league shortstops not named Brandon Crawford. His 1.5 fWAR put him on par with the Royals Alcides Escobar, who played in 21 more games than the Twins shortstop. By all of his own measures, Eduardo Escobar had emerged.
     
    Despite contributing a 2.4 fWAR in 2013, Escobar was pushed to a utility type role in favor of Santana out of the gate a season ago. Danny Santana turning in 16 errors and being worth -15 DRS while earning a -8.0 UZR was the perfect storm to open the door for Escobar. As the offensive production poured on, the Venezuelan slammed the door on any questions about who would play short for the Twins going forward.
     
    For most of the 2015 season, Escobar's production was met with some level of hesitation. It had become a wait and see type scenario, in which the bottom could potentially fall out at any point. The resounding fact however, is that the time never came. Instead, Escobar produced on offense while making just four errors in 71 starts at shortstop. He was worth 2 DRS and posted a drastic improvement (2.6 UZR) over Santana in range factor. He had taken his opportunity and run with it.
     
    At just 27 years old, and heading into his third full big league season, Escobar has become the Twins present and their immediate future. Minnesota does not have anything on the near horizon at shortstop (sorry Jorge Polanco, but 28 E in 102 G isn't going to work), and Eduardo has long passed the point of needing to look over his shoulder. Top prospect Nick Gordon will continue his rise through the system, and Wander Javier is not far behind him, but neither are legitimate threats to the Twins guy right now.
     
    Having seen the emergence and production develop, the Twins can be thankful to have their first legitimate shortstop in quite some time. As Minnesota returns to relevancy, Eduardo Escobar will be a big part of the equation. It may be tough to watch Francisco Liriano continue to dominate in his career, but the move was necessary at the time, and is now paying dividends for the home team as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Waiting months for Opening Day to come, only to have it pass as the nine innings unfold, should help remind us as baseball fans to keep things in perspective. I wrote recently about the importance of Opening Day, and the relative lack thereof. It's a celebration of what is to come, but as a baseball fan, we are locked in for the long haul over the next seven months. There were a couple of key things that can be drawn from what the Twins underwent to open their season however.
     
    Over the course of the offseason, the bullpen has been the largest point of contention. After being the worst in the big leagues a season ago by multiple different metrics, it was going to need to be vastly improved for this club to stave off regression. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan seemed to bank on internal options for the 2016 season, and with a deep farm system, it's hard to blame them. That said, there was still three main points that detractors focused in on.
     
    First, the closer. Glen Perkins has been an All Star in two consecutive seasons, but has broken down as the season turns over to its second half. I touched on what Perkins should be this year, and I believe the concern for him is overblown. Let's move past that part.
     
    The second arm causing some pause is also a part of the back three relievers that were considered locks this spring. Kevin Jepsen's acquisition last season will go down as one of Terry Ryan's best trades. Behind only the brilliance that was finagling Tommy Milone away from the Athletics, Jepsen resembled a move the Twins needed. He went on to have a career year for Minnesota, and filled in the closer role in Perkins' absence.
     
    It's that career year though that makes 2016 somewhat uncertain. With the Twins, Jepsen posted his best ever ERA (1.61), while striking out eight per nine innings, and owning a sub 3.00 FIP for just the third time in his nine year career. Having never totaled a sub 2.00 ERA previously, it was pretty apparent that the performance was going to be difficult to repeat.
     
    Things started out on the wrong foot in 2016 for Jepsen as he took the Twins first loss, and his shaky performance was to blame. Generating two quick outs, the former Rays reliever then walked a batter and gave up two consecutive singles to allow the walk of run. What;s worth noting, is this narrative could play out similar to one Twins fans have seen before.
     
    Upon joining the Twins a season ago, Kevin Jepsen was tagged for two earned runs in his first game while recording just one out. He took the loss as the Twins fell 4-1 to the Seattle Mariners. From there however, he gave up runs in just two of his final 28 outings. Posting a 0.98 ERA across 27.2 IP, opposing batters slashed just .178/.217/.218 off of him.
     
    By all statistical measures, his immediate blip for the Twins was followed by dominance. A sever candidate for regression this season, Jepsen will need to do his best impression of his former self. The Opening Day blunder could definitely be a precursor to future dominance, but for a guy that is looking to be a cornerstone of the Twins relief corps, he'll be battling against himself the rest of the way.
     
    Now, both of the former two pitchers are more cautionary tales than legitimate concerns. Unfortunately, the third pitcher doesn't have that luxury. Enter Casey Fien.
     
    Arbitration eligible with Minnesota this offseason, the Twins awarded Fien a $2.275 million contract. While the money is negligible, the move immediately draw ire from myself as his roster spot became all but guaranteed. The problem with that, is Fien is far from the best internal option for Neil Allen and Molitor to run out in a relief situation, and taking a spot from a more capable arm seemed counter productive for a team trying to revamp its pen.
     
    Despite owning a 3.55 ERA and being mediocre at best in 2015, you'll hear that Fien was better down the stretch. There's some truth to that. In Fien's first 31 games in 2015, he owned a 4.60 ERA while allowing a .270/.285/.437 slash line to hitters. In the final 31 games of his season, Fien turned in a 2.53 ERA while limiting hitters to a much better .229/.256/.314 line. What the numbers don't show is that Fien's production still came largely as smoke and mirrors. Minnesota owned the worst bullpen strikeout percentage in the big leagues a season ago (6.85 K/9), and in those final 31 games Fien (who was "good") posted a 6.75 K/9.
     
    Therein lies the problem that is Casey Fien. Over the past three years, Fien's strikeouts per nine innings have declined each season. Topping out at 10.6 in 2013, they dipped to 7.2 in 2014, and were a horrible 5.8 a season ago. It's worth noting that Fien doesn't walk anyone (1.7 BB/9 career), but his troublesome strikeout rate is at the root of the Twins relief issues.
     
    In 2015, Fien generated swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time, his lowest mark since 2010. Opposing hitters were able to make contact with his pitches over 83% of the time, also the worst mark since 2010. On top of allowing the ball to be put in play, Fien wasn't just generating soft contact. In fact, his pitches were hit with medium or hard contact 83.2% of the time, again a career worst since the 2012 season.
     
    What it breaks down to is Casey Fien being the exact type of pitcher the Twins should have avoided putting in their pen. He's a reliever that strikes no one out, gives up way too many hard hit balls, and does nothing to push a bad bullpen forward. In rewarding him with an arbitration deal, Fien was the choice over the likes of J.R. Graham, Taylor Rogers. Logan Darnell, Nick Burdi, Brandon Kintzler or maybe some other external option.
     
    Of course one game is far too early to start cherry picking as to what the rest of the season holds. That being said, Fien allowing four hits and surrendering two runs while recording just two outs very well could be a precursor of things to come.
     
    The Twins bullpen should be much better than billed. Ryan Pressly is a weapon, Trevor May could be elite, and Fernando Abad appears to be a nice pickup. All of those things can remain true though, while Fien remains a dumpster fire, and we're going to eventually find out what's down that rabbit hole.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    Yesterday, Craig Calcaterra wrote an incredible piece over at NBC's Hardball Talk in regards to Opening Day and the celebration that it is. I urge you to read it, the perspective is truly necessary. The basis of the piece is that while Opening Day is no doubt a celebration, it's importance is sometimes overstated. That leads us to here, and what lies ahead.
     
    Don't get me wrong, Opening Day is a party, and it should be. We've made it. No longer are we spending days speculating about what moves the Twins may make, or how much of a debacle Miguel Sano may be in the outfield. Instead, the narratives begin to play out in front of our eyes, and unlike the last month of forgettable action, these games count.
     
    Sure, Opening Day is one of the days on the calendar a baseball fan circles every season. You don't need a political affiliation to have no better reason to vote for a presidential candidate, than whomever first takes on making the day a national holiday. For the 2016 Twins, Opening Day is going to signify the first time since 2011 in which Minnesota will embark upon another 162 game slate coming off of a winning season. Yes, today is incredibly important.
     
    That importance is where things take a bit of a shift however. Opening Day is simply not at all important for what takes place on the field. Everything about baseball's ribbon cutting day is about what takes place off of it. The pageantry, the flyovers, your first ballpark beer, all of those things carry more weight than anything that takes place between the lines today.
     
    Minnesota will send Ervin Santana to the mound, making his first ever Opening Day start. The Twins big free agent splash in 2015 could go on to twirl a no hitter, or he may deal a perfect game. Almost as likely, he'll get shelled, give up double-digit runs, and the limited grouping of traveling Twins fans will leave Camden Yards well before the fifth inning. The reality however, is that the outcome is going to lie somewhere in between.
     
    Looking at the landscape of the 2016 Twins, and the expectations for the ball club, there may not be a big league team tougher to project. Capable of putting together a run that has them at the top of the AL Central, or watching the inexperience, youth, and gambles crash and burn to the tune of a last place record, Minnesota stands to write a pretty interesting storyline in the year ahead. With that understanding, it's going to take quite some time for a real concrete set of expectations to develop.
     
    Beginning the season, the Twins will play somewhat of a softer schedule. Getting some lesser teams on the road (sorry Baltimore, but Chris Tillman on Opening Day?), and dealing with the tougher foes at Target Field (what do we make of the White Sox? And is the Indians rotation really going to carry that outfield?), Paul Molitor's club can position themselves well. Down the stretch though, when the playoffs begin to come into the picture, the Twins will face an incredibly heavy slate of inner-division rivals.
     
    By the time for the rubber to meet the proverbial road for Molitor and his gang, the hope would be that Miguel Sano would be roughly 30 homers deep. Maybe Byung Ho Park will have mastered the clobbering of breaking pitches, and Jose Berrios could be well on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. Sure, all or none of those things may happen, but what's certain is that none of them will begin to take hold on Opening Day.
     
    When the Twins take the field against Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards for Opening Day, it signifies the end of a long offseason that couldn't come soon enough. The numbers, stats, and developments to come though, well, Opening Day really isn't a place for any of that.
     
    Enjoy it, embrace it, and settle in for the long haul. While casual fans will come and go throughout the season, you'll be here, watching the Twins turn "what ifs" into reality for the next seven months. The excitement and fireworks is for them, the box scores and production though is what makes Opening Day a blip on the radar in the scheme of the greatness that is yet to come.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    A season ago, the Minnesota Twins were among the worst in the major leagues when it comes to bullpens. They didn't strike anyone out, the group struggled to hold leads, and they were generally overtaxed having to work long games pitching from behind. Although many of the arms didn't have full seasons of inefficiency, it was generally a tale of two halves for a good portion of them. No one experienced that narrative more than Glen Perkins.
     
    Making a third straight trip to the All Star Game, Perkins owned a 1.21 ERA in 37.1 innings before the break. He allowed opposing hitters to slash a paltry .188/.217/.246 off of him, while notching 28 straight saves. His 8.7 K/9 was getting the job done, and he looked like the best closer in all of baseball. Then it happened...
     
    Upon the calendar turning over to the second half of the season, the train derailed for the Minnesota native. For the second season in a row, he fumbled down the stretch. Pitching just 19.2 innings for the Twins the rest of the way, Perkins owned a 7.32 ERA and converted just four saves while blowing three. He gave up a .360/.394/.674 slash line to hitters, and surrendered seven longballs. To say it was a debacle would be putting it nicely. For the second year in a row, Glen Perkins had disappeared.
     
    Looking at 2016, there was a real need for the Twins to improve their pen. With many pieces being makeshift a season ago, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor needed more arms they could count on. Heading into the spring, only Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Trevor May were guaranteed to be among the group (May, after he was ruled out of starting).
     
    The Twins addressed their bullpen in much of the same way they did going into the 2015 season. Inviting a handful of non-roster guys to compete for jobs, it was always Fernando Abad that looked the most likely to make an impact. The rest of the 2016 pen will be composed of internal options that have previously performed, and there's a host of high-ceiling guys on the way. What remains the glue of everything however, is just how well Perkins contributes to the group as a whole.
     
    Sure, Jepsen filled in admirably for Perkins a season ago, but expecting a career year from him ago may be a fool's errand. There's reason to believe May becomes an elite reliever, but do we really want to be relying on him to close games for the Twins in the upcoming year? Taking some pressure off of everyone would mean Perkins is able to handle his own.
     
    I have seen concern from multiple different outlets. There's been rumblings of a man struggling to stay in shape, wondering where priorities lie, and notions that it may be time to move on. Where I believe things are trending however, is the third time being a charm.
     
    Glen Perkins is a competitor, he's a realist, and he seems to be one of the most transparent players in the big leagues. There's probably nobody more determined to right his wrongs than Perkins himself. Wanting to turn the tide on two down endings, Perkins has worked through different routines in hopes of putting his body in the best position to withstand the rigors of a full season.
     
    The last two seasons, Perkins has seen his fastball dip down into the 93 mph range. After spending 2012 and 2013 throwing right around 95 mph, the dip could definitely be part of the downfall. What Perkins has done this spring however, is show velocity that rivals the numbers posted at the height of his game. In the previous two years, he's struggled to push the radar gun much above the 92 mph range down in Florida. In his recent outings this season, Perkins has pushed up past 94 mph, a very good sign.
     
    In his best years, Perkins has struck out right around 10 batters per nine innings. Using his wipeout slider, he's had batters overmatched more often than not. When allowing the ball to be put in play, Perkins has always given up roughly a third of those batted balls to fall into the hard contact range. The last two seasons, that number has continued to rise. For Perkins, it's about getting back to what he has been capable of previously.
     
    At 33, it's not about reinventing the wheel for the former Gophers standout, but simply returning to what he's capable of. He needs to keep the ball in the yard, seeing a 2% spike in his HR/Fly Ball rate, and he needs to command at bats once again. As much as staying healthy is a big portion of the equation, the solution simply seems to be returning to a pitching style he once was synonymous with.
     
    There's understandable reason to believe that Perkins health has become a detriment to his effectiveness and think that his best days are behind him. The flip side however is that his issues are correctable and making even minor tweaks are the key to him solidifying an improved Twins relief corps.
     
    For now, the problems that the Twins bullpen and Glen Perkins are facing can't be overlooked. What also is fair to suggest is that the situation shouldn't be overblown either. Expecting Perkins to return to his former self, and produce in a full season, is something I feel comfortable with at this point. The unfortunate reality though, is that it's a narrative the Twins must have play out.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the 2015 Major League Baseball season, there was no Twins player I was more down on that Danny Santana. After exploding onto the scene in 2014, and garnering some AL Rookie of the Year votes, regression was looking him right in the face. Unsustainable production at the plate caused worry, and the fears turned out to be more than warranted. In 2016, there's a different tune however. Santana could be one of the Twins most integral roster components.
     
    In 2015, Santana produced an ugly .215/.241/.291 slash line for the Twins over 91 games at the big league level. His .405 BABIP from 2014 came crashing back to earth, and even swung heavily the other way, ending at .290 for the 2015 season. Given the starting shortstop role out of the gates, he was unpredictably terrible, and was given a much longer leash than imagined. Summarizing, the 2015 season is one that Santana will want to forget.
     
    Nothing could help him move on quicker though than what is to come in 2016. Santana who has been named to the 25 man roster for the Twins, now finds himself in a different role. Moved back to the outfield in principle, Santana has started games all over the diamond for the Twins through spring training. Having shown the versatility to play on both sides of the infield, as well as spelling uber prospect Byron Buxton in center, Santana will have plenty at bats come his way.
     
    Santana's approach at the plate has always been one that could lead to some struggles. Taking walks has never been a big part of Santana's game, and the 2.2% walk rate at the big league level in 2015 was a new career low. He swung at pitches outside of the zone over 43% of the time last season, and missed on swings nearly 13% of the time. Neither of those numbers are ideal (although they are better than 2016 regression favorite, Eddie Rosario), but a late season surge may have seen things begin to click again.
     
    Prior to his promotion back to the big league club to end the season, Rosario tore up Triple-A Rochester in the month of August. He slashed .333/.352/.506 over his final 20 games there. Posting eight extra base hits, with three homers, the Dominican seemed to find his stroke once again.
     
    Through spring training, Santana has once again continued to impress at the plate. Given 52 at bats, he owns a .327/.339/.462 slash line with a homer, and nine runs driven in. Utilizing his speed on the basepaths, he's also contributed five stolen bases to Paul Molitor and the Twins cause.
     
    Comparing things and projecting forward for Santana, trends should be in his favor. The largest detractor to his assumed regression in 2015 was in the form of the inflated BABIP, largely a metric of luck. Santana owned a 26% hard hit rate a season ago, down just 0.5% from the 2014 season. His line drive rate dipped around 6% but there were still not any glaring abnormalities. What the numbers suggest is that Santana simply regressed to the mean, and the ball didn't bounce his way as often as it did the season before. Fortunately for him, it bounced significantly against his way more often than not, and posting that poor of a BABIP once again in 2016 doesn't seem like a good bet.
     
    So if Santana should be expected to be better at the dish, that means half of his game is already looking to be headed in the right direction. As a utility fielder, the Twins are helping to make sure the rest of it follows suit as well.
     
    As mentioned earlier, Santana was given the starting shortstop gig out of the gate in 2015. Across 570 plus innings, he posted a -15 DRS and -8.0 UZR for Minnesota. For some comparison as to just how bad that is, not a single qualified shortstop posted worse than a -8 DRS in 2015, and that was Jose Reyes who played 996 innings to reach that feat. What the Twins found out is that Santana is not a shortstop, or at least in a full time role.
     
    Moving away from Santana at short, the 16 errors that came with it immediately helps the Twins defensively. It helps Danny too however, considering he's posted at least league average numbers in the outfield. Playing over 500 innings in centerfield for the 2014 Twins, Santana held down the spot, even while being a bit below average when consulting range factors. Making a home in the outfield as a rotational type should allow Santana to settle in defensively. Sparing Eduardo Escobar at short, Brian Dozier at second, or even Trevor Plouffe at third is a way to sprinkle Santana's glove into the infield without relying on him heavily.
     
    For the upcoming version of the Twins, a focus on the 25th man will be more heightened than it has in recent memory. While I'm not suggesting that's Santana, the point is that having capable pieces off the bench is a must for a team looking to make the playoffs. Santana operating in a super utility role could be one of the nicest things afforded to the Twins in quite some time. While he isn't Nick Punto defensively, Danny Santana could round into being at least that value with the mix of the bat, flexibility, and compatibility.
     
    If 2015 was the Twins relying on Santana to take a starting gig and run with it, 2016 will be about Minnesota hoping he can reinvent himself by being Danny-do-everything. Expect a jack of all trades, master of none type approach, and thinking it works out is a pretty good bet.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    The day has come and gone, Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco had their show down as spring training draws to a close, and the rotation has been all but set. With Nolasco not seeming a likely rotation option coming into the season, Duffey opened the door with his tough spring, and the veteran capitalized. Now with the rotation looking set, a few other dominoes will fall into place.
     
    Despite getting a vote of confidence from manager Paul Molitor out of the gate, Duffey did the one thing he couldn't afford to do this spring, be mediocre. As a candidate for regression after a very solid final 9 starts in 2015, the former Rice closer needed to hold serve and the rotation spot was his. While he was looking to add a third pitch to his repertoire, a changeup, it was his command that alluded him most down in Florida.
     
    Although Ricky Nolasco was far from a lights out option this spring, he took the door Duffey left cracked open, and kicked it in. Turning in multiple solid performances on the major league side, the man Minnesota owes $24 million over the next two years forced his way back into the team's plans. Now penciled in to be the club's fifth starter, we can begin to wonder what happens next.
     
    First for Nolasco.
     
    I looked at what needs to go right for the former Marlins ace back in February. He is signed on an over-extended contract given his track record in the lesser national league, and he's coming off two poor seasons for the Twins. First and foremost, he needs to be able to find his confidence once again. Falling behind hitters far too often in his tenure with the Twins, he's generally given the guy at the plate the advantage from the get go. From there, his breaking pitches need to return to what they once were. His curveball has looked sharp this spring, and his slider needs to again be an out pitch. If he can make those tweaks happen, Minnesota may get some use out of their big 2014 expense after all.
     
    The dominoes behind Nolasco are the ones that seem almost more intriguing however. It has often been an uttered sentiment that the Twins best case scenario would be for a brief period of positivity causing teams around the big leagues to check in on Nolasco. In reality, he still has a significant chunk of change tied to his name, and Minnesota would have a tough time swallowing the majority of it. Nolasco going well wouldn't be all bad however.
     
    Considering the shape of the AL Central starting rotations, the Twins would have to figure in no worse than third among the grouping. With a solid front three, the inclusion of Tommy Milone and Nolasco as 4th and 5th options is far from a bad thing. As the season gets underway, the back end of the rotation could then serve as somewhat of a revolving door for Molitor.
     
    Despite being sent down, Duffey is going to resurface with the Twins at some point in 2016. My opinion would be that it's after the debut of Jose Berrios, who I believe is the first man up sometime in early may. Berrios got his feet wet this spring, and while he wasn't lights out, he was always going to be held back for service time reasons regardless.
     
    Considering that injuries and shuffles will take place, there's little reason to bank and the starting five staying in tact for the duration of the season. What Nolasco has done in securing a rotation spot however, should be beneficial down the road to the Twins. In terms of Berrios, he presents a realistic roadblock for the immediate future, and in turn allows Duffey to hone in on his newly developing changeup.
     
    Whether Berrios and/or Duffey are called upon due to necessity, or by pushing for their inclusion at the highest level, the Twins will have an extended evaluation period first. Both Milone and Nolasco should be capable of giving the Twins quality starts to open the season, and in grabbing a rotation spot, Nolasco helps to let the chips fall where they may.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    After a season in which the Minnesota Twins surprised many around baseball, 2016 presents a whole new opportunity for Paul Molitor and his squad. Now no longer toting the weight of multiple 90 loss seasons, Minnesota looks to expand upon its near playoff performance from a season ago. I have contended often that in 2016, the Twins remain the AL Central team most capable of finishing first just as well as last in the division.
     
    Despite having talked about plenty of narratives this offseason here at Off The Baggy, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Twin Cities baseball mind Phil Mackey. He can be heard weekday mornings on 1500 ESPN Radio doing the Mackey and Judd show. While the topics on their show range across all Minnesota sports, Mackey's wheelhouse in no doubt on the diamond, and he's one of the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the Twins.
    Set up in a question and answer format, Phil fielded a handful of thoughts on the 2016 Minnesota Twins, and offered his perspectives and outcomes for each. Take a look:
     
    Off The Baggy: A season ago the Twins were one of baseball's surprise teams. Needing to push the needle further this season, what is the key factor that makes that happen?
     
    Phil Mackey: They need two things, in general: A better bullpen and more top-end talent on the roster. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and J.O. Berrios could solve the “top-end talent” part of the equation. The bullpen remains to be seen. I love Glen Perkins, and he’s been an awesome contributor to our radio show every week, but can he stay healthy in August and September? Can Kevin Jepsen repeat his performance from last year? I feel pretty good about Jepsen-May-Perkins, if healthy, but the Twins will need guys to really step up and lock down innings 5-7.
     
    OTB: After going into 2015 with a bullpen that should have caused worry, do you feel the same about the 2016 situation or see it as improved?
     
    PM: I think I just answered this question in the previous question, which fits in line with my overachieving personality… The most important thing is for Twins relievers to miss more bats. If I recall, the Twins’ bullpen has allowed more contact that just about any ‘pen in the league over the past couple seasons, which isn’t ideal when we’re talking about holding leads and preventing baserunners from scoring.
     
    OTB: It was pretty apparent Danny Santana seemed ripe for regression last season. What player seems like the most likely to regress in 2016 and why?
     
    PM: Eddie Rosario seems like the obvious answer here, just considering the enormous gap between his strikeout and walk rates… but I’m going to go with Kevin Jepsen. Last year was a career season for him, and I highly doubt that he’ll be able to repeat it. Sort of like Devan Dubnyk with the Wild. Not repeatable. But we’ll see.
     
    OTB: I know you're a big sabermetrics guy. Give me the over/under on some numbers for Eddie Rosario in 2016: 14.0% Swinging Strike, 8 Defensive Runs, Saved 2.0 fWAR
     
    PM: Under on the swinging strike rate… Over on the DRS… Over on the WAR. I think the demise of Eddie Rosario is vastly overstated. He’s a sharp dude with great instincts (do you like those scouting terms in the middle of your saber question?), and I think he’ll find ways to adjust and adapt.
    Of course, I just jinxed him. And now he’ll be terrible.
     
    OTB: There should be no shortage of power in the Twins lineup this season, and the club should have a realistic shot at the 200 plateau. Who hits the most longballs for the Twins, and how many does Byung Ho Park tally?
     
    PM: If Miguel Sano stays healthy, he’ll lead the team with 30-something. I’ll say 36. With Byung Ho, I honestly have no idea. Nothing would surprise me. If he plays every day, and if you set the over/under at 19.5, I’d probably take the over. But it’s possible morph into more of a platoon bat (with Arcia potentially on the roster), which could reduce his total. Byung Ho has plenty of pop, but can he adjust to MLB location and secondary pitches?
     
    Which leads me to a mini-rant… Everyone is so fixated on whether Byung Ho can hit “a major league fastball.” That’s not the issue. I don’t care if every pitch is 100 mph – every professional hitter will square it up if he KNOWS it’s coming. Where MLB pitchers differ most from guys in the KBO, the minors and other inferior organizations is A.) location and B.) command of secondary pitches.
    /rant
     
    OTB: Out of options, and seemingly running out of time, what are your thoughts on Oswaldo Arcia? Is he another potential David Ortiz, or a roster casualty that you're ok losing on waivers?
     
    PM: I think it would be a huge mistake to let him walk for nothing. Oswaldo Arcia will hit 20 or 30 home runs for somebody in 2016 if given enough plate appearances. Not to mention, he already has a track record of destroying right-handed pitching. He’s David Ortiz Light. Or Diet David Ortiz.
     
    OTB: In the rotation, the Twins top three pitchers all have a strong chance to be pretty good this season. Which of the following do you see as the most realistic outcome? Hughes has a bounce back year, Santana pitches like he finished 2015, or Kyle Gibson emerges as the Minnesota ace?
     
    PM: In order of how likely…
    1.) Hughes bounces back
    2.) Santana pitches like he did in second half
    3.) Gibson emerges as the ace
     
    In fact, the Twins’ rotation actually has a lot more upside than people are giving credit. Santana and Hughes have both been able to anchor rotations for long stretches in recent years (when they’re ON), and Berrios could fit that bill too. Now, will ALL of them be lights-out at the same time? Unlikely. But there’s upside.
     
    OTB: Wrapping up the conversation, the Twins should have three realistic rookie of the year candidates. Who do you see making the strongest push between Park, Buxton, and Berrios?
     
    PM: Byron Buxton has the best shot. He’ll start at a premium position and will play every day, immediately. And he doesn’t need to be great at the plate to make a huge impact. If he plays top-notch defense, steals bases and does marginal damage at the plate, he’ll be in the mix. I think his worst-case projection is B.J. Upton.
     
    There you have it, Phil might have started to agree with me on Rosario, but I really like the suggestion of Jepsen being a name to cause some pause. I think the Twins bullpen has the chance to be better than we saw a season ago, although I'm not sure strikeouts will improve a vast amount. Regardless of where the numbers fall across different positional groups on this roster, there's no arguing that the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins has the most intrigue of any team in recent memory.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have not been to the Major League Baseball playoffs since 2010. Following the 3-0 series sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees, Minnesota went on an ugly four-season run losing 90 or more games each year. Having begun to turn the corner in 2015 with a near playoff run, the 2016 squad appears poised to end another long drought. This one focuses on the AL Rookie of the Year award.
     
    Marty Cordova was the last Twins player to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors, and he did so following the 1995 season. A 10th round pick by the Twins in the 1989 draft, Cordova earned the award seemingly against all odds. His 1995 season included a .277/.352/.486 slash line with 24 homers, 27 doubles, four triples, and 84 runs batted in. On a terrible Twins team, Cordova was a bright spot.
     
    For the 2016 version of the Twins Rookie of the Year candidates, the narrative should be much different. A team that's going to be in a spot to compete, and a player with some impressive pedigree, it would appear that one of a handful of options could emerge as the front runner. With a pitcher, an infielder, and a couple of outfielders factoring into the equation, Minnesota should have no shortage of suitors.
     
    Jose Berrios
     
    My favorite to take the title for the Twins won't even begin the season on the big league roster. Berrios has been demoted mainly for service time reasons, but could use the first month to get settled in at the Triple-A level. He dominated Rochester a season ago, and has all the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter. As I've mentioned before, it's hard not to think of him as capable of replicating what Jacob deGrom did in his rookie season.
     
    For deGrom, the NL Rookie of the Year was capture thanks to a 2.69 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 while issuing just 2.8 walks per nine. That season, deGrome allowed only seven longballs and tallied 140 innings for the Mets. Last season at Triple-A, Berrios improved upon his Double-A Chattanooga numbers. The Puerto Rican posted a 2.62 ERA (owning a ridiculous 1.08 ERA across his final four starts). Starting 12 games at Triple-A, Berrios struck out double-digit batters twice, and nine another two times. Expecting him to make a splash at the big league level seems like a pretty good bet, and he's no doubt my odds on favorite.
     
    Byron Buxton
     
    Baseball's best prospect saw his flames fanned some after struggling in his first 138 plate appearances in 2015. The flip side of that thought process however is exactly that total, having just 138 plate appearances under his belt. Just 22 years old and still with tools oozing everywhere, this season should be the one that things start to come together.
     
    A season ago at Double-A, Buxton was slashing just .252/.312/.472 through his first 138 plate appearances. He had tallied three doubles, six triples, and four homers in that 30 game span. While the numbers weren't horrible, they also weren't indicative of what he was capable of. His next 28 games at Double-A (prior to his big league promotion) saw him hit to the tune of a .316/.392/.509 line with 12 extra base hits. Then following an injury with the Twins, Buxton went on to hit in all 13 Triple-A games he played in, owning a .400/.441/.545 average.
     
    In short, even without his bat Buxton has the ability to be an above average talent due to his defensive prowess. What should be expected though is for a slow-starter to settle in and eventually contribute in a big way at the highest level. If someone is going to take the Rookie of the Year honor from Berrios, it may well be his own teammate.
     
    Byung Ho Park
     
    It may be somewhat unfair for a 29 year old Korean superstar to be considered a rookie, but here we are. Park is fresh off two straight 50+ homer seasons in Korea, and has acclimated nicely to the big league game. Though it's a small 36 at bat sample size through spring thus far, he's already made some nice adjustments.
     
    After being overmatched and likely overwhelmed in his first spring training game, Park has settled in nicely. He's the owner of a .306/.333/.611 slash line and has knocked three balls out of the park while picking up another two doubles. His 10 strikeouts in 36 at bats aren't ideal, but he will likely push his walk rate higher as his power plays and he becomes more comfortable at the plate. If Park pushes anywhere close to 30 homers for the Twins this season (and I expect him to do so) there's absolutely room for him to be considered for the award.
     
    Max Kepler
     
    If there's a long shot in this group, Kepler is no doubt it. That being said, it's also not fair to discredit the realistic probability that he factors into the equation. I'm of the belief that Kepler will get more run that assumed at the big league level this year, and he has the talent to be an All-Star level player.
     
    Healthy after getting a late start to the 2015 season, Kepler went on to pick up Southern League MVP honors. At Double-A Chattanooga, all the German born prospect did was hit. Owning a .322/.416/.531 slash line, he posted 34 doubles, 13 triples, and nine homers while driving in 71. His speed and power combo made him an immediate gap threat, and that will no doubt play well at the expansive Target Field. He's seen an incredible amount of run throughout big league spring training, and it's not at all a mistake.
     
    Kepler's opportunity hinges on the performance of Miguel Sano in right field, along with Eddie Rosario at the plate. If he continues to rake to start 2016, and the Twins need a boost in the outfield, expecting Kepler to be it is a good bet.
     
    It's been an incredibly long time since the Twins have had so much promise amongst their youth. Sano put together a very strong rookie campaign a season ago, but was outdone by the likes of Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor. In the year ahead, the only players outdoing each other could very well be from the same organization. Cordova is long past due in being overtaken as the last Twins Rookie of the Year, and 2016 is shaping up to be the icing on the cake.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Back in January, prior to the kick off of spring training, I ran through a 25 man roster projection for the 2016 Minnesota Twins. I have long operated under the belief that very few positions were up for grabs, and continue to stick by that. Ricky Nolasco was never a realistic rotation option and Byron Buxton was never headed back to the farm. That puts my positioning from January in a pretty good spot. With that being said, there are still a couple of tweaks I'd like to make.
     
    Now with just a handful of spring training action left, it's fair to suggest that the Twins have all but solidified who will be going north and starting the season with the big league club. Let's take a look at where that puts Paul Molitor's squad.
     
    Rotation (5)
    Ervin Santana
    Phil Hughes
    Kyle Gibson
    Tyler Duffey
    Tommy Milone

    Santana should be expected to get the Opening Day nod. He finished the 2015 season on a tear, and would have gotten his first Opening Day start in 2015 had it not been for a PED suspension. A rebounding Hughes will follow him, leaving Gibson, Duffey, and Milone to round out the group. I'm extremely high on Gibson this season and expect him to have a very nice year. One of either Duffey or Milone will transition out early as Jose Berrios is going to get his chance sometime in early May.
     
    I have some concern about Duffey replicating his 2015 success. Unless his curve remains incredibly sharp, he'll see some regression. With Milone being out of options, it could be an interesting decision when it comes time to open up a rotation spot.
     
    Starters (9)
    Kurt Suzuki C
    Joe Mauer 1B
    Brian Dozier 2B
    Eduardo Escobar SS
    Trevor Plouffe 3B
    Eddie Rosario LF
    Byron Buxton CF
    Miguel Sano RF
    Byung Ho Park DH

    No changes here, and nothing unexpected. Minnesota was never going to go away from Buxton on Opening Day unless he had an absolutely abysmal spring. 129 at bats is far from something to tie his numbers to, and the top prospect is going to need to be a difference make for the Twins this season. Park has seemed to acclimate well thus far through spring, and there's no reason his bat won't be present on Molitor's first meaningful lineup card.
     
    Bench (4)
    Danny Santana Util
    John Ryan Murphy C
    Oswaldo Arcia OF
    Eduardo Nunez Util

    Again, no changes here either. Santana and Arcia have not had a good time at the plate during spring training, but both are out of options. For Santana, the ability to play all over the diamond makes him valuable, and there's still plenty of hope that he can be a serviceable utility player. Really the only potential player to unseat Arcia would be Carlos Quentin. Aside from Arcia being out of options, the Twins also don't have to make a decision on Quentin until June 1, his opt out date. This gives Minnesota a couple of months to see Arcia at the big league level again. For a guy that would undoubtedly be claimed on waivers, there's no reason not to hope the 20 home run production of 2014 returns.
     
    Bullpen (7)
    Glen Perkins
    Kevin Jepsen
    Trevor May
    Casey Fien
    Fernando Abad
    Ricky Nolasco
    Ryan Pressly

    In relief, only one change has been made since the initial roster projection. Alex Meyer failed to grab onto a pen role this spring, and is now headed back to the Triple-A Rochester rotation. In his place, Ryan Pressly takes over after proving to be effective while healthy once again. Unfortunately for the Twins, the misuse of Michael Tonkin a season ago has him in a situation of unknown production, and despite being out of options, his poor spring is probably going to have him passed over. The Twins could have afforded themselves at least one more pen spot in deciding not to offer arbitration to Fien (who's also been bad this spring), but that didn't play out.
     
    At the end of the exhibition schedule, the Twins roster is going to be much as it originally seemed. With the influx of young talent, and already determined veterans, there wasn't much wiggle room for Terry Ryan and Molitor. There's no doubt a handful of fringe guys that will make the initial 25 man, and the development of top prospects so close to the big leagues ensures that lack of production should result in replacement.
     
    A surprise team a season ago, Minnesota shouldn't expect to be taken lightly in the year ahead, and the team has positioned itself to compete. With the regular season just around the corner, the numbers will begin to matter soon.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    No nearing the end of March, the Minnesota Twins have played the majority of their spring training games. With the outfield being one of the most intriguing positional groupings for Paul Molitor's squad, it has been interesting to grab takeaways from each day's action. As the regular season gets underway though, the outfield may shift somewhat drastically from how it begins on Opening Day.
     
    It was all but locked in from the beginning of Spring Training that Minnesota would go with Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano in the outfield from left to right. Buxton was never realistically going to lose the centerfield role, Rosario was coming off of a nice rookie year, and Sano was being asked to field as well as hit. What isn't locked in, is just how the group may shift over the course of the year.
     
    Looking back at how Rosario posted the numbers he did, the Puerto Rican appears to be a significant regression candidate in the year ahead. His defensive ability is definitely going to make it hard for the Twins to pull him from the starting lineup, but his bat no doubt could force the decision.
     
    On the other side of the equation, Molitor is dealing with Sano learning an entirely new position. Having made a few misplays this spring, there's no doubt more to come as meaningful games commence. Whether or not the Twins stick with the hulking Dominican or not probably depends on quite a few different factors.
     
    The storylines however led me to this question:
     

    It appears the belief is that Rosario will no doubt remain in the outfield throughout the upcoming year for Minnesota, while Sano has some significant question marks. It was no mistake to introduce prospect Max Kepler into the situation either, and it appears the belief is that he will only get his shot in due time.
     
    On the surface, it surely doesn't appear that the results of that poll would be too far off base. However, I'm willing to contend that there's some reason to believe things could be flipped. I'd be far from surprised to see the total starts in the outfield at seasons end among those three look like this: Sano, Kepler, Rosario.
     
    Taking a look at Rosario first, I've done plenty of background work on his offensive detractors. His on base percentage has dipped ever since reaching the upper levels of the minors, and his free swinging tendencies are worrisome. In 2015, his OPS was significantly inflated by a major league leading 15 triples, and it's hard to expect that to replicate. In short, expecting the regression on offense to dictate Rosario's playing time is just half of the equation.
     
    The other side of Rosario's dwindling playing time rests in the hands of Max Kepler. The German born prospect has the makings of an All Star at the big league level, and there's a reason he remains a late part of big league camp for the Twins. When healthy, Kepler's ceiling has always been sky high, and his .318/.410/.520 line in 2015 did nothing to discredit that. On both sides of the game, Kepler is a contributor, and there's little reason to believe he can't supplant Rosario on his own merit.
     
    Kepler's time also factors into the equation when taking a look at Sano, who I expect to be better than anticipated. Playing right field for the Twins, his value is almost solely tied to offense, but that's far from an isolated case. Two of the three top American League right fielders in terms of fWAR (Nelson Cruz and Jose Bautista) posted negative DRS (defensive runs saved) numbers in 2015, and have done so throughout their careers. A season ago, Torii Hunter was Minnesota's right fielder tallying a -8 DRS while being worth a measly 0.5 fWAR. For Sano, the new position shouldn't provide enough hiccups to make the thought process make sense.
     
    There's no doubt going to be issues with ball tracking, and occasional gaffes here and there in the new role. What Sano brings is a big arm, and the offensive firepower. Trevor Plouffe being afforded a lineup spot with Sano in right makes the Twins better as an offensive whole. Should Sano post a manageable negative DRS number while continuing to hit, the Twins no doubt did the right thing. Kepler can spell him as needed, but I'd guess Molitor sticks with his big man much more seriously than anticipated.
     
    When the dust all settles, I suppose the results of the poll could no doubt be spot on. Eddie Rosario may again produce despite an approach that doesn't lend itself to doing so. Sano could bomb and Minnesota would have tough decisions to make. Kepler may have to wait his turn, and do so longer than expected. At the end of the day though, I don't see it being that cut and dry.
     
    The situation is set up to be one of the more intriguing storylines of the Twins season, and putting Molitor in a position for guys to earn their role is something Minnesota can be excited about.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins made their first rounds of cuts this spring. While nearly all of them were expected, the timing of at least one seems a bit premature. On top of the roster thinking out, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor seem to be dealt a tough hand when it comes to one near guaranteed big leaguer.
     
    Minnesota sent Reynaldo Rodriguez, Engelb Vielma, Alex Swim, Heiker Meneses, and Jake Reed over to the minor league side of the Lee County Sports Complex on Sunday. Despite Vielma being a defensive wizard, and Rodriguez getting some decent run this spring, the group was far from unexpected. It is however interesting to see Reed let go this early. The 2014 5th round draft pick from Oregon has been touted as a potential bullpen piece as soon as the 2016 season. Despite knowing he'll need some more time on the farm, the argument could have been made to keep him around a bit longer.
     
    Reed struggled through a 6.32 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga last season, but proved well above the Florida State League upon a demotion. Once again he dominated the Arizona Fall League, and he positioned himself well going into the year. With a 3.00 ERA and a 1/2 K/BB ratio through 3.0 IP, he didn't do anything to set himself back.
     
    For the Twins pen options, Reed settles in among the glut of options along with Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois, Mason Melotakis and others. He's probably going to debut sometime this summer, and it'll likely be after the first two options, but there's no doubt that the California native is capable of getting hitters out at the highest level. Regardless of his reassignment date, Reed controls his own destiny at this point, and betting against him doesn't appear a worthy cause.
     
    When it comes to the bullpen, there's few areas the Twins will put a larger focus on in the year ahead. That said, they've got the unfortunate reality of a pitcher being forced into a situation. In trying to rework what was a pen that struck no one out, and was largely ineffective a year ago, Ricky Nolasco is giving Minnesota fits. At this point, the question becomes just what too large of a negative actually looks like.
     
    Nolasco who was fighting for a starting role in theory much more than reality, appeared destined for the pen. The unfortunate development is that he's actually pitched this spring, and it's been about as bad as imagined. In three outings, he's given up three earned runs twice (once in just 1.1 IP) and compiled a hideous 7.36 ERA in just 7.1 IP. He owns a mediocre 7/3 K/BB ratio, and has surrendered 11 hits thus far. By all measures, he's been ineffective at best, and borderline awful at worst.
     
    What compounds the problem for the Twins is the dollar amount hanging over Nolasco's head. Owed over $24 million through the next two seasons, Terry Ryan is going to be faced with a decision. Given their body of work, the argument for Burdi, Ryan Pressly, and maybe even J.R. Graham over Nolasco in the pen could be made. It comes down to whether or not the Twins are willing to continue to be hurt by a poor decision.
     
    In paying a mediocre NL starter over someone with more upside (a la Phil Hughes) what they did, the Twins were always looking at an uphill battle with the former Marlins starter. Now the contract being a sunk cost, does Paul Molitor want to continue to be plagued by an ineffective arm simply because of the contract? Minnesota doesn't have a ton of options with Ricky, he's not going to accept an assignment to Triple-A. Should the club choose to DFA him and wash their hands however, they may stop the bleeding well before the financial implications cease to exist.
     
    As more cuts are made this spring, it will continue to be worth monitoring what relief arms remain. Fernando Abad looks to continue to be the left-handed front runner, having surrenders a lone run on a solo homer. Burdi doesn't seem to be a 25 man option, but only pushes his MLB debut closer the longer he remains in big league camp. With a handful of young options sprinkled in with vets on minor league deals, it'll be interesting to see if any of them defy the odds and unseat the likes of Michael Tonkin or some other yet predetermined arm.
     
    For now, Jake Reed has begun his turnaround season, and Ricky Nolasco has done anything but warrant a spot on the big league club. The story is just being written, but the 2016 Twins are well underway.
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into spring training, the Minnesota Twins had a couple of players to keep their eyes on. With the majority of the 25 man roster being fleshed out, it was going to be a battle for a few final inclusions. While the role of the 5th starter in the rotation may have been up in the air, it was no doubt largely decided, and so too was the man that would man the middle of the outfield.
     
    Somewhat surprisingly this spring, there has been a decent amount of articles written regarding Byron Buxton and him closing in on the Twins centerfield role. After sifting through the level of backwards thinking that train of thought employs, it should be apparent that Buxton was never closing in on anything.
     
    What Buxton did in his first big league season was struggle. He slashed a paltry .209/.250/.326, struck out over 30% of the time, and was used as a defensive replacement down the stretch. What's also worth noting is that being somewhat of a slow starter, Buxton has taken to adapting rather quickly. After all, you don't elevate yourself to baseball's top prospect without that ability.
     
    Coming into the 2016 season, Buxton was the odds on favorite for the starting centerfield job, regardless of what some may have thought (example 1, example 2). It's a silly narrative to believe the Twins were ever closing in on giving Buxton the gig, when in reality it was his to lose.
     
    Having put up four defensive runs saved in just 35 starts for the Twins, defensively Buxton has the makings of the best centerfielder in the game. On that alone, Paul Molitor would have been best served to go with his top prospect. Then considering that secondary options included a list of players such as Danny Santana, Ryan Sweeney, and Darin Mastroianni, it should have been all but a foregone conclusion.
     
    With spring training numbers what they are (Buxton currently slashing .200/.261/.561), the month of March was always going to be more process than results. Barring a complete ineptitude at the plate, the only storyline worthy of contemplating would be one in which Buxton had actually lost his grip on the role. Having shown a solid approach at the plate, and being able to square pitchers up, Buxton has done nothing to put that storyline into play.
     
    At the end of the spring, Buxton is the Twins centerfielder to open the season, and that ever being in doubt seems more fodder than fact.
     
    That leads us to another situation that previous Twins teams may have handled differently. Despite the idea that Ricky Nolasco (and even Trevor May) was competing for a rotation spot, the reality has always been that he's working to pitch for this club at all.
     
    Gone are the Twins rotations including Cole DeVries, Jason Marquis, and Kevin Correia. No longer is a contingent of five hurlers thrown out there and asked to duck their way back into the dugout. In fact, Minnesota's group is arguably going to be one of the better bunches in the entirety of the AL Central.
     
    A season ago, Nolasco pitched hurt, and the year before that, he was simply ineffective. Through three spring outings, he's been a detriment as well. Aside from the numbers, and they aren't good (7.36 ERA 11 H 6 ER 7 K 3 BB in 7.1 IP), his process has been equally poor. Failing to get ahead of hitters, not finding the zone, and putting himself in less than advantageous situations, Nolasco has done nothing to warrant any consideration for the roster, let alone a starting spot.
     
    Unfortunately, that leads us to the ugly reality that Minnesota will owe Nolasco over $24 million through the next two seasons. It is this number that has some believing Ricky had an insider track to a rotation spot. Again, the narrative should be that number giving him a leg up on a roster spot ahead of the more deserving competition.
     
    There was little reason to believe an ineffective veteran was ever serious consideration for a starting role on a team with significantly better options. While a former Twins way of thinking may have seen that play out, it more reasonably would have been the by-product of circumstance (less than advantageous pitching), than desired practice.
     
    It's completely understandable to view the current Twins team in the context of what has previously taken place. The context provided by the situation however is that the 2016 squad is coming off a near playoff year, as opposed to spending the season in the doldrums of the Central losing 90 games. For a team looking to take a step forward, even Terry Ryan isn't silly enough to turn away his best centerfielder or hand over the keys to his car loving, but unworthy starter.
     
    Buxton's story was written long before the seemingly backwards notions were unveiled, while Nolasco will continue to hold onto his thread a little while longer. When this club goes north however, expect for the most sensible outcomes to play out, as they have been brewing all along.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins had a couple of key areas the organization needed to focus on improving. After inking Korean slugger Byung Ho Park to a free agent contract, the bullpen was worked on through lower-risk, minor league offerings. Internal options seem plentiful to fill out the 25 man roster, and that means a group of players up against a wall will no doubt have to earn their spots.
     
    Minnesota had a handful of guys that were out of minor league options as the 2015 season came to a close. Some of them were traded (Aaron Hicks, Chris Herrmann), and others were jettisoned onto greener pastures (Josmil Pinto). When the dust settled, there were four guys left that were worthy of keying in on. Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin, and Tommy Milone are all without option years, and fighting for a spot on the 2016 roster.
     
    Despite the possibility of losing one of the aformentioned players for nothing in trying to pass them through waivers, it's hardly fair to guarantee a few of them a lock. Without putting a percentage anywhere, each of the four has a different set of circumstances when it comes to making the current Twins club.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia
     
    Although he has never been cut of the same cloth as Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano, Arcia did appear on top 100 prospect lists prior to the 2013 season. He swatted 20 homers for the Twins in 2014, and despite being a relative liability defensively, his bat can play. There's little room to argue that Arcia wasn't disastrous a season ago, but it certainly would be plausible that 2015 could simply be a blip on the radar.
     
    Coming into spring training with the Opening Day outfield all but set going Eddie Rosario, Buxton, and Sano from left to right, it was the bat of Arcia that needed to play. Having shown a heightened work ethic and desire to push his game, the process has been encouraging. Arcia is maybe the most locked in player of this group to make the roster. As a back up outfielder, and bench bat, he gives the Twins something that teams around the big leagues would no doubt covet.
     
    To return to his 2014 status, Arcia will have to continue to work on his plate discipline and approach. Chasing less and walking more will need to be two areas the Venezuelan focuses on. That said, there's too much talent and momentum working in his favor for him not to head north with Minnesota.
    Danny Santana
     
    Not quite the same situation as Arcia, but no less guaranteed to go north for the Twins, Santana must carve himself out playing time by being flexible. Forced back into the outfield after posting a hideous -15 DRS number in just over 570 innings as the starting shortstop, Santana's role will no transition to utility. Being able to play all three outfield spots, while spelling a tired infielder is where his value can come from.
     
    Easily the most projectable regression candidate entering the 2015 season, the offense took steps backwards as well. After enjoying a .405 BABIP in his rookie year, Santana came crashing back to earth slashing a paltry .215/.241/.291 for the 2015 Twins. He's never going to walk much but he absolutely has to improve upon his chasing pitches (41.3% career outside of zone swings), as well as his swing and miss tendencies (11.6% career).
     
    For all of his flaws, Santana could find himself slotting into the Eduardo Nunez role going forward. Playing a reserve role, while giving just enough offense to matter, and being capable of defensive flexibility, he becomes an asset on Paul Molitor's bench. He's going to go north with Minnesota, but the room for error is probably not at the same level as that of Arcia, and considering the ceilings, justifiably so.
     
    Michael Tonkin
     
    Of the group, it's Tonkin who's in the most interesting situation. A season ago, Minnesota's bullpen was far from good, but it wasn't very creative either. Up until the point in which Terry Ryan dealt for Kevin Jepsen, the lone lock down reliever in the second half was converted starter, Trevor May. The unfortunate part for Tonkin, is that he was out of the mix far more often than he should have been.
     
    Called up on five different occasions during 2015 (and twice for a single game), Tonkin was never able to settle in at the big league level. He owned a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9 at Triple-A Rochester. For the Twins though, he scattered 23.1 IP compiling a 3.47 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9. The numbers aren't horrible, but what the didn't allow for was consistency. Now out of options, a spring that has seen Tonkin give up runs in two out of his three appearances has led him to be in a less than ideal situation.
     
    There's little reason to believe Tonkin wouldn't be claimed on waivers should Minnesota not bring him north. He also may not be the best option for the pen come the regular season however. Molitor could have had a much clearer picture as to what Tonkin could provide with a better usage in 2015, or by Ryan not offering Fien arbitration for the season ahead. There's a really solid chance Minnesota puts Tonkin on the roster not wanting to lose him from the get go. There's also a decent possibility that he's not the most qualified arm for that role. If there's an option-less player that misses the 25 man, Tonkin could be it.
     
    Tommy Milone
     
    When rounding out the rotation, the 5th and final spot is Milone's to lose. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson are all inked in, with Tyler Duffey's role being written in pencil for now. If Ricky Nolasco is going to unseat someone, Milone would seem to be it. Fortunately for both the prospects of the Twins staff, and Milone himself, it doesn't appear likely to happen.
     
    Forget about Nolasco's contract, it's a sunk cost and compounding the issue by having a pitcher not a part of their best five start, doesn't seem like a worthy cause. Milone was the return of arguably one of the best trades Terry Ryan has ever made, and he's pitched more than capably of late. His 3.92 ERA in 2015 was sufficient, and he earned his recall by being unhittable at Triple-A Rochester following a demotion. Having turned in two solid spring starts thus far (5.0 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 6 K), he's positioned himself well.
     
    Not having the velocity fastball of Nolasco, Milone doesn't project to be a realistic bullpen option. His stuff isn't going to play up significantly in relief, and that as well works in his favor. Whether Nolasco likes it or not, his role for the Twins appears to be in relief, and Milone continuing to throw well is only making the decision more solid.
     
    Being out of options is, as has always been the case, far from a guarantee to make the 25 man roster. For the Twins group of four looking to add something to the big league club, each seems to have positioned themselves relatively. By product of circumstance, only Tonkin seems remotely possible to be skipped over, and even that doesn't seem all that likely. The good thing for Minnesota, is that each of the four players presents some realistic reason to believe they can contribute at the highest level in the year ahead.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the 2014 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan realized they had a deficiency. Coming off of yet another 90 loss season, the team's starting pitching was nowhere close to what it needed to be to compete. The answer was to scour the free agent market, and bring in outside help. Ryan landed to fresh arms that offseason, one has worked, and the other one hasn't.
     
    The issue with the one that hasn't; we may not have seen the worst of Ricky Nolasco yet.
     
    In terms of performance, the Twins put themselves in a less than advantageous situation from the get go. Nolasco was largely a middle-of-the-road pitcher in the National League. Despite being considered an ace at times for some relatively poor Marlins teams, he'd pitched to the tune of a sub 4.00 ERA just twice in his first eight seasons (2008, 2013). Nolasco's FIP generally hovered somewhere in the mid three's, and arguably his greatest asset was in being known as an innings eater.
     
    Not a big strikeout guy, owning just a 7.4 K/9 mark, Nolasco was not likely to overpower hitters in the tougher American League. Surrendering just south of 10 hits (9.5/H9) per game, his pitch to contact style was one that Twins fans have come to grow tired of. Despite the many warning signs, it was Nolasco (and not the more realistic Phil Hughes) that commanded a $12.25m average annual value from the Twins over the next four years.
     
    Entering their first season with the Twins, Hughes and Nolasco were the two pitchers brought in to change the rotation. While Hughes had been burned by homers, he was two years Nolasco's junior, and had a projectably higher ceiling. As expected, Hughes succeed (arguably much better than assumed) and Nolasco struggled.
     
    Now with one ugly (5.38 ERA in 27 starts during 2014) season under his belt, and one injury riddled one (just 37.1 IP in 2015), Nolasco finds himself at a crossroads. In his Twins career, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA, 4.15 FIP, while striking out just 6.9 per nine, and offering little to no reliability. Considering the output, the California should be owed nothing, except he is...another $24m over the next two years.
     
    That brings us to where we are now. Without a guaranteed rotation spot, Nolasco enters 2016 on the outside looking in. A less than ideal situation for a starter, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN asked Nolasco's agent (Matt Sosnick) about the situation, and potentially working out of relief. Here's that response:
     
    There's little room to mince words in the statements above. Nolasco is clearly under the impression he's one of the Twins best five starting pitchers, and opposition to that is going to be an issue. This leads us to the reality, things could likely get worse.
     
    With Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson already rotation locks, there's just two spots left in the starting five. Paul Molitor has all but said Tyler Duffey will get one of them, and Tommy Milone has done nothing to lose his role. Nolasco in relief seems like the most plausible option, but then again, it really doesn't.
     
    A handful of different scenarios have been thrown around as to how to handle Nolasco. In seeing the way in which Mike Pelfrey took a bullpen demotion a season ago, expecting it to go better with Nolasco is probably foolish. The reality though, is that putting Nolasco into the pen, is a square peg going into a round hole; it's a way for the Twins to utilize some of their already sunk cost in his contract. Trading Nolasco also would seem an uphill battle. The return would no doubt be pennies on the dollar, and a guy who's shown very little ability over the past two seasons doesn't have much value.
     
    This leads us to my preferred solution. Nolasco wants to start, and there's little reason to believe he walks away from his hefty paycheck. Minnesota can DFA Ricky, removing him from the 40 man roster as he passes through waivers unclaimed, and allow him to start at Triple-A Rochester. In this scenario, he continues to start, staying stretched out, and can be a fallback option if and when injuries occur at the big league level. No doubt the move would be met with some angst from the Nolasco camp, and he could definitely refuse the assignment (due to having five years of service time). If he's dead set on starting though, and wants to play hardball with Minnesota, Ryan has some options at his disposal.
     
    At the end of the day, Minnesota has a glut of high-ceiling reliever nearly ready for the big league level. Forcing Nolasco to the pen simply to get use out of him, over the roster inclusion of a player such as Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, J.R. Graham, or some other MLB ready pen commodity would be less than ideal. The hope would be that Ricky Nolasco can turn his performance around, but this situation at least from a personnel standpoint, is likely going to get worse before it gets better.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    On Sunday March 6, Twins Territory was reminded of a somber event. It was the 10 year anniversary of Kirby Puckett's death. No doubt one of the organization's all time greats, it's tough to fathom it having been a decade since his passing. For everything that followed him in his final years, Puckett represented everything that was beautiful for baseball and the Twins while he was involved in the sport. In talking about him, we may have found the missing piece in defying new found analytics.
     
    The ten year anniversary of his passing seems like an odd day to point out his flaws as a player. While most of them are well documented and understood, the conversation seems best suited on any other day. Regardless, in taking place, we may be through the looking glass in figuring out exactly what the connection is to statistics, analytics, and how players are viewed.
     
    Here's where the talking points got started:
    And here's where they concluded:
    Now, there's little room to argue that either of those statements in inaccurate. Misplaced considering the event, no doubt, but accurate nonetheless. The point here however, is that Puckett, and the perception of him is actually quite insightful in regards to the game today and advanced analytics.
     
    As baseball has continued to trend towards a game of numbers, and sabermetrics have gained momentum in mainstream media, players are generally evaluated more on paper than ever before. Warne makes that point indirectly without explicitly stating as such.
     
    Kirby Puckett is a Hall of Famer, even despite numbers that generally fall somewhere well outside of that norm. Picking up 10 All Star awards, six Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers, he collected just 2,304 hits and 207 homers. He drove in just north of 1,000 runs (1,085), but slashed an impressive .318/.360/.477 over his 12 year career.
    A continued notion that his career was cut short due to an eye injury tends to tread water when stacked against the fact he retired at the age of 35, having debuted at just 24 years old. During his 12 seasons, Puckett's 44.9 fWAR ranks him 234 all time.
     
    That brings us to current Twin, Joe Mauer, whose fWAR sits at 45.1 (ahead of Puckett) with at least a couple more seasons ahead of him. Mauer has yet to reach the 2,000 hits plateau (but should in the next two seasons). He hasn't driven in 1,000 runs, and he probably won't ever hit 200 homers. In fact, Mauer's .313/.394/.451 career slash line actually pales in comparison to that of Puck. A six time All Star himself, Mauer owns three Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers, along with his three batting titles (all as a catcher).
     
    The point here isn't to suggest Mauer's career has been one of better production than that of the late Twins hero, but the argument is a pretty solid one. Instead, what Warne led us to is that sabermetrics and analytics have changed the way in which we view the game of baseball completely.
     
    Puckett's last season with the Twins was in 1995. At that time, Fangraphs was far from even a realistic thought and numbers generally ended in the nightly box score. Mauer didn't play his first game with the Twins until 2004, as teams around Major League Baseball began to shift towards looking for any competitive advantage they could muster. What that's given us is two very different trains of thought.
     
    Among Twins Territorians, you'd be hard pressed to find two players that find themselves at the opposite end of a perception spectrum, despite being incredibly intricately linked. Puckett was heralded because he was a star who made "The Catch," and gave us "We'll see you tomorrow night." Mauer is a one-time Hall of Fame lock, now forced to assume a different type of value while being expected to produce to the non-existing terms of a contract signed with differing circumstances.
     
    Sabermetics, analytics, numbers, and statistics will forever have a place in the game of baseball. The more we lend ourselves the opportunity to understand and appreciate all avenues, the further respect can be given, and perspective seen, for major leaguers whose strengths are incomparable. Kirby Puckett was an amazing baseball player, a fringe Hall of Famer, and a Twins fan favorite. His career, and the actual remembrance of it may be the insight we need to separate what was, what is, and what it all means.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Twins now having played their first spring training home game, Paul Molitor got to run out a group of nine regulars. Playing in front of the Hammond Stadium crowd against the Boston Red Sox, Minnesota started what appeared to be a very likely Opening Day lineup. With a month left prior to that being set in stone, it's fair to question if it works.
     
    Should everything fall into place, meaning players progress as expected, I'd like to see a configuration look like this at some point in 2016. That said, there's little reason to believe that it makes sense for the Twins out of the gate. What Molitor ran out for the spring training home opener has some merit to it, but there's some parts to nitpick at as well.
     
    Going in order, here's how Molitor lined things up in what we can suspect was an Opening Day trial run:
     
    Brian Dozier 2B
     
    The All-Star second basemen got the leadoff nod, and it was far from unexpected. He batted first for the Twins in 102 games last season, and produced a .246/.313/.499 slash line out of that spot. Ideally, I'd like to see Dozier slide to second or third, and utilize his home run potential with someone on base. Until Byron Buxton can assume this spot however, he's going to be here for the Twins (even if Joe Mauer makes ton of sense).
     
    Eddie Rosario LF
     
    Here's the first oddity in Molitor's construction. Rosario is a guy I see as a very likely regression candidate. He owned a .748 OPS in 2015, that was heavily bolstered by a major league leading 15 triples. For me, batting a guy that might have put up a high water mark of a .289 OBP in his rookie year, and struck out 118 times while taking just 15 walks, in the two hole is a bit of a reach. Rosario chases pitches a ton, he swings far too often, and as a lineup table-setter, he's not who comes to mind. Maybe he changes course in year two, but I'd rather find out with him batting in the lower half.
     
    Joe Mauer 1B
     
    This isn't the last place I'd put Mauer, but it's close. My biggest problems here are that Mauer is an OBP-machine (even if that number has taken a dip), but moreso that he pushes Miguel Sano down in the order. If Mauer isn't hitting leadoff for the Twins (a position I believe he'd thrive in), then batting him in the bottom half and allowing his ability with RISP (.352/.466/.456) to play makes sense. Molitor seems set on batting Mauer in the top three however, so Rosario should be the guy who gets bumped.
     
    Miguel Sano RF
     
    In his spring training debut, Sano walked three times essentially being pitched around. For the homer opener, he put the bat on the ball and raked a double off the Hammond Stadium wall. There's little argument to be made that the 22 year old isn't the most feared hitter in the Twins lineup. Cleanup makes sense, but I want him hitting in the first inning guaranteed, bat him third.
     
    Trevor Plouffe 3B
     
    One of the best moves the Twins made this offseason was holding onto Plouffe. Although not ideal having to play positional shifts elsewhere, Trevor's bat has become one of the Twins biggest assets. With over 20 homers a season ago, Plouffe looks the part of a late-bloomer. Batting 5th, he should again produce in the power categories, hit a ton of doubles, and ground into a few less double-plays, further boosting his totals.
     
    Byung Ho Park DH
     
    When the Twins signed Park out of Korea, it was without a doubt for his bat. Having hit over 100 homers the two seasons, Minnesota salivated at the thought of his offensive value. He's going to be a work in progress, but settling in this spring will be big for him. There's probably reason to move him into the cleanup spot if Sano hits third eventually, but for now, 6th continues to let his power play, while not putting too much pressure on him.
     
    Eduardo Escobar SS
     
    Looking at the configuration Molitor decided to go with, Escobar is a perfect fit for the 7 hole. If someday Buxton transitions to hit leadoff, Escobar makes a bit more sense at the bottom of the lineup. Like Rosario, he doesn't walk much, but his 86/28 K/BB ratio is a good deal better. Even if he slides a bit from the 12 homers he hit a season ago, his 30+ doubles each of the past two seasons make him an asset. He's a great piece at the back end of the lineup.
     
    Kurt Suzuki C
     
    Zuk is no doubt going to be the Twins Opening Day catcher. He's a veteran who has the respect of the pitching staff. That said, the Twins won't want his player option to vest, and expecting him to be splitting 50/50 with John Ryan Murphy sooner rather than later is a good bet. Suzuki's not going to be a producer on either side of the game, so hitting him 8th makes sense. Your hope is that he lands somewhere between his last two seasons of production.
    Byron Buxton CF
     
    Out of the gate, batting Buxton 9th is the most sensible situation. Yes, his speed plays at the top of the lineup, but as the saying goes, "You can't steal first." Buxton still needs to settle in at the plate. He'll be attacked with a ton of off speed stuff, and so far the results haven't been favorable. He's hit at every level he's been at however, and should come around at the big league level. If he can get somewhere near a .260/.340/.400 slash line, the argument to bat him first should commence.
     
    As a whole, the Twins have a good amount of punch one through nine. Most of the changes that could be offered to Molitor's expected Opening Day grouping are nitpicking at best. Arguably the most necessary move is dropping Eddie Rosario further in the order, but that could be showcased as Rosario regresses on his own. If it doesn't happen, or if things click for the Twins left fielder, you've got a solid case to keep him there.
     
    Minnesota is going to bank on some uncertainties to start the 2016 season no doubt. The best part of it is that each of those areas has a significant amount of upside, and the retread feeling that has been present in the past is no longer applicable with this group.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    With the 2016 Major League Baseball slate set to get underway (or at least the tune-up games that is), the Twins enter the season with a fresh sense of hope. Really, every team does at this point of the year, but Minnesota is looking to take the next step. After narrowly missing out on the playoffs a season ago, playing for October is once again the goal. For Paul Molitor's club though, luck seems to be a large deterrent towards that effort.
     
    A season ago, the Twins finished at 83-79. Coming in second place in the AL Central, Minnesota was said to have a good bit of fortune that went their way. Whether that be clutch hitting, timely runs, or big scoring outputs, the Twins saw added benefit in the win column. The question is, to what significance can that be attributed?
    First, let's take a look at what the luck actually produced for Molitor's squad a season ago. With runners in scoring position, arguably the easiest place to start, Minnesota batter .280/.352/.440 with 36 home runs and 491 runs batted in.
     
    Then there's the base runs breakdown. Base runs are an estimate of the number of runs a team "should have" scored given the culmination of their offensive statistics. The metric puts the Twins at +10, or third highest in the big leagues behind just the Cardinals and Royals (both +11). Outproducing their suspected run total by double-digits no doubt put the Twins in advantageous situations. The "luck" helped to bolster a Twins run differential that landed at just -4 on the season, well above the -75 mark that base runs projected the output to be worth.
     
    A look at the Pythagorean expectation for the wins and losses Minnesota should have experienced in 2015 isn't kind either. Invented by Bill James, the formula estimates how many games a team "should" have won based upon the number of runs scored and surrendered. Computing based on their output, the Twins finished just slightly above their projected 81-81 finish.
     
    For a team that ended the season compiling an 11.5 fWAR (5th worst in MLB), ahead of only the White Sox, Phillies, Rockies, and Brewers, the results are no doubt on the extremely positive side. That brings us to the counter argument however, and asking how much it all matters.
     
    In 2015, the Twins beat projections across the board. They were seen unfavorably from the get go, and their production throughout the 162 game slate suggested they should have finished with a worse record than they did, except that didn't happen. The fact that it didn't happen remains a key point looking at the 2016 season.
    Once again, the Twins are being somewhat discounted in the year ahead. Looking at Vegas odds, the best over/under total puts Minnesota at 78.5 wins. Fangraphs ZiPS projections have Molitor's squad pegged for regression with a final 77-85 record, and a run differential of -35. What we must wonder is regardless of luck, how do the Twins end up there?
     
    For 2016, the most major roster turnover is in the removal of Torii Hunter, and the expected additions in the bullpen. Hunter was worth a paltry 0.5 fWAR a season ago (no doubt more valuable in the clubhouse), and a defense liability. He is being replaced by Miguel Sano, who regardless of his defensive acumen (though he could succeed), will far outweigh his predecessor on the offensive side of things. Regardless of the Twins not spending on their pen, they got creative with Fernando Abad, and have a multitude of internal options that should spell a heightened level of production in comparison to a season ago.
     
    Giving Molitor full season's of Eddie Rosario (at least defensively), Byron Buxton in his sophomore tour, and Sano for 162 games, a trio of youth should spell positivity for Minnesota. Byung Ho Park provides opportunity to push the Twins run total out even further, and the supplements of players like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco should be welcomed by Twins Territory.
     
    On the mound, Minnesota can pitch. No doubt without a true ace, the Twins have three strong big league starters in Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. Whether Tyler Duffey holds serve, or Tommy Milone continues to be steady, the Twins have depth options in the likes of top prospect Jose Berrios, and even in likely pen candidate Trevor May.
     
    What the situation boils down to is the fact that for almost virtually ever argument against Minnesota, the organization has some sort of an answer. Unproven and without the ceiling of other veteran-laden teams, Molitor still has to be happy about what he has at his fingertips. Good fortune or luck not playing out to the same accord, Minnesota should be able to force plenty of positive situations in the year ahead.
     
    Due to the nature of youth and unproven commodities that will be relied upon at Target Field in 2016, it all could crash and burn. More than any other AL Central team however, the Twins seem constructed with the ability to take the division, or end up in the cellar. With luck as their biggest deterrent to falter this season, a better narrative should probably be crafted when looking for potential regression.
     
    As stat-driven as baseball has become, the reality is that the numbers rarely cancel out. Minnesota isn't simply going to regress because of creating good fortune a season ago. With a clean slate, the group that will head north from Fort Myers should be equally if not more capable of producing at the clip the 2015 club did, and there's no luck in that.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    The snow has melted, the season has changed, and the Twins have embarked on Florida. Spring Training is now well underway, and the Twins are set to kick off their slate of games. As the team positions itself for the meaningful contests in April, it's the March matchups that will pave the way. On the mound to set the action off for the Twins will be Phil Hughes. The question is, what does that mean going forward?
     
    Paul Molitor made the announcement that Hughes will be the starter for the Spring Training opener against the Boston Red Sox. While that would seemingly line up for Hughes to have the inside track to be the Twins Opening Day starter, should that end up being the case?
     
    A season ago, Phil Hughes experienced more regression than any other Twins pitcher. After generating Cy Young votes in 2014, Hughes totaled a 4.40 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 2015. He still walked virtually no one (just 0.9 BB/9), but he also struck out significantly less batters (5.4 K/9 after an 8.0 K/9 in 2014). The Achilles Heel to his performance was no doubt the longball however.
     
    In 2015, Hughes led the league in home runs surrendered (29) and in doing so, posted his worst career mark since giving up 35 as a Yankee in 2012. While no doubt the homers weren't a good addition to Hughes' performance, they also could have signified markedly worse numbers. Over 80% of the balls that left the yard against Hughes were of the solo variety, no doubt saving him from numbers that looked even worse.
     
    So, where does that leave Hughes in the year ahead? As a pitcher who generally has alternated solid performance years, 2016 would already line up to be the next strong year. Looking at his numbers though, Hughes also has some reason for optimism.
     
    A year ago, over 13% of the fly balls Hughes gave up left the yard, that mark doubled the 6.2% posted in 2014, and was also higher than his 10% career average. He allowed hitters to make hard contact over 31% of the time, a 4% increase from 2014, and also higher than his career average (29%). If he's going to turn the corner back towards looking like the pitcher Minnesota initially signed, the strikeouts will again take a tick upwards, and Hughes will have more batters off balance.
     
    For the Twins, Hughes turning things around is no doubt a necessity. The competition for the staff ace shouldn't be a one man race in the season ahead however. Regardless of who starts on Opening Day, both Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson seem to figure into the team's best pitcher in 2016 when the dust settles.
     
    A season ago, Santana was slapped with an 80 game suspension as Spring Training drew to a close. Despite taking him a handful of starts to settle in, Santana was virtually unhittable down the stretch. From August 30 through the end of the season (7 starts) Santana owned a 1.62 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash just .209/.275/.294 against him. He struck out 47 in 50.0 IP and allowed just 14 free passes. In that time frame, he also surrendered just one home run, while have two double-digit strikeout performances.
     
    Looking at what's to come for Santana, the Twins no doubt are looking for a repeat of that late-season performance. Despite signing out of the National League, Santana has been an AL pitcher for virtually his whole career. His best ERA was posted in the AL Central with the Royals during the 2013 season, and his strikeout numbers remained on par with his career averages. When all is said and done, Santana should no doubt be among the Twins best.
     
    Then there's Kyle Gibson. Gibson probably presents the most intrigue of the Twins three cemented starters. After taking a step forward in 2015, it's the year ahead that he should be expected to impress even more so. Finishing with an ERA that ranked near the top of the AL (3.84), Gibson also posted career bests in starts (32), innings pitched (194.2), strikeouts (145), WHIP (1.289), H/9 (8.6), and K/9 (6.7). The former Twins first round pick saw the success he was always billed to be capable of.
     
    Now rounding out the trio of the capable big league starters, Gibson can continue to settle into his own upward trajectory. More than either Hughes or Santana, Gibson benefited significantly from the addition of pitching coach Neil Allen. Allen, who's a changeup believer, had Gibson throwing the pitch a career high 19.6% of the time (up from 12.5% in 2014). The effectiveness of Gibson's changeup was no doubt helpful in generating more swings and misses (9.8% was a career high in 2015).
     
    While there's probably not much stock to put into who becomes the Twins ace, or who toes the rubber on Opening Day, the fact is that Minnesota has three starters all capable of pushing the envelope. With Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Jose Berrios contributing behind them, each member of the core group is capable of being a stopper and getting the job done. For the first time in quite a while, Paul Molitor should have a staff capable of respectable numbers as compared to the rest of the league.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    As a new Major League Baseball season approaches, a renewed sense of hope imparts itself upon Twins Territorians. After a near playoff run a season ago, Paul Molitor's club will be looking to take the next step forward in the year ahead. Typically, that step isn't taken by every player, as regression candidates rear their heads. By now, you're probably aware that for 2016, my pick is none other than Eddie Rosario. Should that narrative play out, we find ourselves staring at one of the Twins most forgotten men.
     
    No doubt, Rosario heads into Spring Training with a grasp on the starting left field job. Someday (and possibly even this year), it may be turned over to German phenom Max Kepler. First though, a hulking Venezuelan will get his [final] crack.
     
    Enter Oswaldo Arcia.
     
    Before there was Eddie Rosario in left field, prior to the defensive wizardry the position provided a year ago, and before the speed that the Twins employed, the role was Arcia's. Just a year removed from a 20 home run season, Arcia seemingly is everything Rosario is not in left. He doesn't play great defense, covering ground isn't his thing, but he's also no stranger to the long ball.
     
    After a successful debut season in 2013, Arcia followed up his performance with a solid Sophomore season as well. On top of the new career high in homers (20), Arcia turned in a triple slash line of .231/.300/.452. His OPS was 18 points higher than in his debut year, and while he still struck out far too often, he kept his similar pace when taking walks. By this point, it had become apparent Arcia's contribution would be in the long ball or bust, and that's something the Twins would need to decide if they could live with.
     
    Given just 19 games at the big league level a season ago, Arcia seemed a shell of his former self. While his average was a career best (.276) and his OBP topped out at .338, the small sample size led to almost no power production (just two homers and eight runs batted in). The home runs also were the only extra base hits Arcia generated at the big league level a season ago. Finally, the Twins had seen enough and a demotion came.
     
    At Triple-A Rochester, things only got worse for the slugger. Outside of a torrid stretch in July (8 HR 19 RBI .367/.446/.918) his season was a disaster. In 79 games, he hit below the Mendoza Line (.199/.257/.372), while striking out 82 times and drawing just 18 walks. No doubt wanting to get back to the big leagues, he did nothing to warrant the trip and spent September watching from the couch.
     
    Now out of options, Arcia must make 2015 look like a mirage. He posted career worsts in swinging strike percentage (19.6%), chased pitches out of the zone over 40% of the time, and generated "hard" contact over 10% less often (just 22.7% of the time) than he had in the first two years of his career. To say that a season ago, Arcia took a step back, would be putting it lightly.
     
    Despite reports that Arcia has taken a new focus on the entirety of his game, including his defense, there's little doubt that his production will often be offensively fueled. Now with his back against the wall, he must make things stick in the year ahead. Working in his favor however, is that there should be opportunities.
     
    Both Rosario and Arcia bat left-handed, so a platoon situation doesn't make sense for the Twins. However, if he has to start with a bench bat role, Arcia's numbers against righties has to be where he makes his case. Owning an .807 OPS against right-handers (nearly .200 points better than against lefties), Arcia has slugged 30 of his 36 career homers against righties.
     
    At some point in 2016, things will come to a head for the Twins left field situation. Rosario could stumble, Arcia will need to hit (for power), and Max Kepler will be looking to weasel his way into the mix. There's a lot of moving pieces, but the guy without options, has been somewhat of a forgotten part of the puzzle. If Oswaldo Arcia's story with the Twins is to have a happy ending, it will have to happen, and now.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    It's become a point of contention in some circles that the Minnesota Twins may not have a level of certainty at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that notion couldn't be further from the truth, at least for the time being. Going into 2016, there's no doubt Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to start every day, and the expectation should be that he'll succeed.
     
    Way back when, I touched on the Twins continuing to benefit from the trade that sent Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. Escobar was the return, and it relatively early on it appeared to be a good one. Over the course of the last season however, that return looked great.
     
    Going into the 2015 season, Escobar was the utility man looked at as a secondary option for arguably the infield's most pivotal position. After Danny Santana looked the part of a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2014, he was going to be given every opportunity to start at short for first year manager Paul Molitor. You'd be hard pressed to find many that weren't ok with that decision. Santana looked prime for regression, but his new infield role was one he also seemed capable of taking over.
     
    Then the season got underway.
     
    It was always fair to assume that Santana was going to take a step back offensively. After owning a .405 BABIP in 2014, there was a less than zero chance he was going to put up the same kind of slash line (.319/.353/.472). What actually took place though was a level of regression that would be teetering on the brink of catastrophe.
     
    Not only did Santana regress at the plate, he feel off completely. In 91 major league games during the 2015 season, Santana slashed a paltry .215/.241/.291. He took a grand total of six walks in over 260 at bats, and stuck out nearly 70 times. As bad as his offensive game was though, it wasn't even the real problem. At shortstop, Santana started 65 games and turned in 16 errors while being worth -15 DRS. By all statistical measures, Santana was one of the worst players in all of baseball at the position.
     
    Enter Eduardo Escobar.
     
    Following Santana's [prolonged] demotion, Escobar was given his opportunity. Fortunately for both Molitor and the Twins, he did everything he could with it. When the dust settled on 2015, Escobar owned a .262/.309/.445 slash line. He provided the Twins with 12 homers and doubled 31 times. His OPS was 4th best among shortstops, better than everyone not named Brandon Crawford, Tulo, or Bogaerts. In the final month of the season, Escobar only got more impressive slashing .280/.331/.486.
     
    On the defensive side of the ball, Escobar provided an uptick as well. He ended up starting 71 games for the Twins a season ago, making just four errors. His 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR marks were some of the best posted by a Twins shortstop (and his complete game made him a significantly better fit than the defensive minded Pedro Florimon). Looking at his contributions as a whole, Escobar more than got the job done for Minnesota.
     
    At points throughout 2015, it might have been fair to wonder whether or not the Twins would bein on free agent Ian Desmond (who still remains an unsigned FA after rejecting the Nationals qualifying offer). What became apparent as the months drew on however, is that the Twins had an internal option, and a relatively good one at that.
     
    Despite having youth with promise at the shortstop position on the farm, both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier being representative of that, Escobar can make the role his for the time being. At just 27 years old, it appears Escobar would be a late-prime player, and someone the Twins can pencil in as they push towards playoff relevancy once again. Far more than simply a stopgap option, Escobar vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the big leagues most complete at a premium spot.
     
    Never are the Twins going to see Escobar be a high on base guy, he simply doesn't walk enough. However, he makes a ton of contact, actually decreased his swing and miss tendencies a year ago, and doesn't chase all that often. His approach at the plate should be capable of repeating his 2015 performance, and a full season of that kind of production is only going to benefit the Twins.
     
    Sure, Escobar isn't the flashy name that Troy Tulowtizki is, and he may never be another Xander Bogaerts, but asking the Twins to do better is telling them to replace someone that is already competing at a very high level. For the first time since [the thought of] J.J. Hardy, the Twins have the shortstop position figured out.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    If you follow me on Twitter (and if you aren't you should: @tlschwerz), you know that going into a new Twins season, there's generally a good bit of optimism. While toeing the line far away from being a homer, I generally try to place a good deal of scrutiny on regression candidates going into any given season. A year ago, it was Danny Santana and Kurt Suzuki that could be seen from a mile away. This season, my point of contention has been Eddie Rosario.
     
    The talking point that has been Eddie Rosario has been met with some skepticism. He had a great 2015 campaign, and was an American League Rookie of the Year candidate. Considering my hesitation to heap praise on the rookie standout, I've received plenty of questions like the one below:
     
    "Why do you hate on Rosario? We've seen him play well in the majors, while Kepler is still a "prospect"." @JoeyKent52
    That leads us to the crossroads this piece is destined to address. Hate or distaste isn't the right categorization, but why is Eddie Rosario my most logical candidate for regression in 2016 among Minnesota Twins? Here we go.
    In his rookie season, Rosario did a lot of things well. His slash line rested at .267/.289/.459. He led the big leagues in triples with 15, and he clubbed 13 homers. Defensively however, is where he showed even more value. With his glove in the outfield, Rosario was worth 11 defensive runs saved, and contributed 16 outfield assists. On the surface, his debut season was a resounding success.
     
    Leaving spring training, Rosario was my pick to be the first of the Twins prospects called up. He looked the part of a guy pushing for immediate 25 man roster consideration, and being a former top 100 prospect, should have been capable of helping a Twins team looking to return to relevance. His narrative played out that way, but also now supports a different narrative going forward.
     
    2015 saw the Twins send Rosario to the plate 474 times, being credited with 453 at bats. Across that action, he walked a grand total of 15 times, and struck out a resounding 118 times. He put together multiple stretches of eight or more games without a walk, including an 18 and 19 game stretch without drawing a free pass. In 35 games last season, Rosario struck out at least twice. Bad enough on their own, the primary numbers were supported by less than ideal secondary numbers.
     
    The Twins left fielder owned a 14.5% swinging strike rate while chasing pitches out of the zone 46% of the time. He was also making contact on just north of 75% of pitches he was taking hacks at. Pitchers also were able to exploit Rosario's free swinging tendencies in challenging him early. He often got behind in counts as he faced first pitch strikes north of 65% of the time.
     
    When making contact, Rosario saw the ill effects of his approach at the plate. Putting balls in play with "hard" contact just 29% of the time, Rosario often relied upon "medium" contact (52.8%) to get him on base. Utilizing his speed, Rosario often was looking to beat out balls with a lower trajectory, hitting line drives or ground balls over 59% of the time. Unlike Santana of 2014, Rosario's numbers were not inflated by an unrepeatable batting average on balls in play (just .332 in 2015).
     
    Now that we have the detractors to put some context to what took place in 2015, it's worth looking at what's next for Rosario and the Twins. For both parties, the floor is a place that can be somewhat comfortable. Going into 2016, Rosario is going to be the Twins Opening Day left fielder, and his defensive prowess should play no matter what. It's his offensive ability that I expect to be the high water mark.
     
    Should 2015 go down as Rosario's best season at the dish, Minnesota will have some decisions to make. No doubt Max Kepler still has to prove his worth at the major league level, but there's significant reason to believe that he will be a far better big leaguer than Rosario. Should Eddie stumble significantly, Kepler is the kind of depth any team would be envious to have. In the scenario that a swap is made, Minnesota should find themselves with an All Star capable type player in Kepler playing every day, and a very solid defensive replacement or fourth outfielder type in Rosario.
     
    If the narrative above plays out, Rosario's story isn't one of complete doom for the Twins. he still serves a purpose even with his 2015 being a mirage. At this point, Rosario could represent a nice trade chip for the Twins, but that's a different argument altogether. It would be nice to see Rosario's approach at the plate change, but for a guy who's displayed a worsening OBP as he's risen through the system, it's not something I'd bet on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    As February quickly comes to a close, the Twins are ready to get fully underway with spring training activities down in Fort Myers. Pitchers and catchers have reported, with most of the roster following suit. With Paul Molitor eyeing an improvement on a strong first season, he knows that his club has some areas to work on.
     
    Minnesota found themselves in a good deal of beneficial situations a season ago. The club, more often than not, excelled in clutch or high leverage situations. Despite having a bullpen deficiency, the offensive prowess generally kept them in games. With a quality pitching staff and added pop in the lineup for 2016, the Twins feel as though they have put themselves in a position to succeed.
     
    Now one of the questions that remains unanswered for the Twins, is just how the lineup will take shape. I've discussed how I would set the lineup for the bulk of the 2016 season previously, but the leadoff batter still remains a point of contention. There's little reason to believe it won't be Brian Dozier, and the hope is that at some point Byron Buxton would take over, but in the long run, what's actually best for Minnesota?
     
    Realistically, there aren't many candidates, but let's take a look at the few Molitor has to sort through in 2016.
     
    Brian Dozier .236/.307/.444
     
    Dozier is going to be the Twins leadoff hitter on Opening Day. He's got the most experience, is the easiest fit, and gives Molitor some immediate stability. That doesn't necessarily mean he's the best fit long term however. His .307 OBP in 2015 was his worst mark since his rookie season, and he set a new single season strikeout record for the Twins (148).
     
    While the power numbers went up, Dozier walked less, and missed more (he owned a career worst 9.0% swing strike rate). Although Dozier does sell out for pull power (pulling the ball over 60% of the time), he generated a career best 29.0% hard hit rate a season ago. Then there's the fact that Dozier was actually better leading off in 2015 (.246/.313/.499) than he was batting second (.225/.292/.366). My biggest distaste for Dozier batting first is the amount of wasted (solo) home runs, but I suppose it's something you can live with.
     
    Byron Buxton .209/.250/.326
     
    Ideally, Buxton is a prototypical leadoff hitter. He's fast and gets on base, but if you look at the line above, none of that was remotely true in his first big league season. Baseball's top prospect owned a 44/6 K/BB ratio, and had a swinging strike rate of nearly 14%. The good news however is that should be far from what Minnesota can come to expect from the elite Buxton.
     
    Across his two full seasons of minor league ball (2013 & 2015), Buxton slashed .334/.424/.520 and .305/.367/.500 respectively. His career minor league .384 OBP is more than impressive, and he's generated a ton of contact at the plate during his professional career. Obviously, it has to translate at the big league level, but when it does, there's no doubt Buxton has to be the Twins table setter.
     
    Eduardo Escobar .262/.309/.445
     
    There's very little case to be made for suggesting Escobar as a leadoff man. Molitor likes speed, and while Escobar has some of it, he's far from elite in that category. He does play a leadoff type position at short, but that's really where things ends. Escobar just doesn't take walks, and his OBP has generally suffered because of it (just a .303 career OBP).
     
    It's not necessarily an indictment of Escobar as a player, but there's really no good reason to suggest leading him off. Hopefully his power surge in 2015 was real, and he could continue to blossom as a hitter, it should just happen at the lower third of the order.
     
    Joe Mauer .265/.338/.380
     
    Arguably the oddest inclusion in this group, but one that shouldn't be ignored. In his career, Mauer has just two plate appearances (no at bats) batting first in the lineup. He doesn't possess the speed threat generally desired for the role, and Molitor has said plenty of times that Joe won't bat first. In fact, it appears almost certain he'll bat second for the Twins in 2016. However, leadoff may be the thing that benefits this version of Mauer most.
     
    Despite declining averages the past two seasons, Mauer has posted .361 and .338 OBP respectively. He takes walks, and while he strikes out more, he also generates extra base hits (61 doubles over the past two seasons). As a table setter, Mauer getting on base ahead of power threats like Dozier, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano makes a ton of sense. It's probably not even going to happen, but Mauer the leadoff man, or Mauer hitting somewhere around 6th could be the best thing for his career.
     
    At the end of the day, the Twins are almost certain to employ Brian Dozier as their table setter. While it's somewhat of a square peg in a round hole, it's a situation that Byron Buxton can help to change. The quicker things click for him offensively, the faster the shuffle happens. When that day comes, Molitor will once again have to re-evaluate how he rounds out his starting nine.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have plenty on their plate when it comes to expectations. After having a winning season for the first time since 2010, and making a push for the playoffs, second year manager Paul Molitor will have his hands full when trying to fight off taking a step backwards.
     
    In 2015, the Twins did some things really well, but maybe more importantly than anything, they were handed a good deal of luck. Playing well above average in high leverage situations, and being gifted opportune situations, Minnesota took advantage as well as any team in baseball. Expecting those scenarios to replicate themselves isn't a good bet, so the Twins will need to push the envelope on their own.
     
    Should the Twins find themselves in an opportune position come October, some of the following bold predictions will no doubt have to play out. Without further ado, here we go. Your 2nd annual Off The Baggy bold predictions for the Minnesota Twins:
     
    Joe Mauer Will Hit .300 Again
     
    This offseason, Mauer has spoken off the repercussions he has dealt with following his concussion troubles from behind the plate. Most notably, his vision problems have caused him to have trouble picking up the ball at the plate. Another season removed from the traumatic brain injury, Mauer will hit over .300 for the first time since the 2013 season.
     
    At this point, he's settled in defensively at first base, and now it's time for his bat to come around. The power stroke won't be there, but Mauer should be capable of producing a .305/.390/.410 slash line. He's got extra lineup protection, and if Molitor dropped him in the lineup, an even bigger spike should be expected.
     
    Alex Meyer Will Be An Impressive Piece Of The Twins Pen
     
    In 2015, few parts of the Minnesota roster were worse off than the relief corps. Outside of an unreal first half by closer Glen Perkins, the group struck out no one, and couldn't be counted upon to hold down a lead. This year, flame throwing youth such as Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois should change that. Before all of them though, former top prospect Alex Meyer should make the difference.
     
    Meyer know doubt took his lumps as a starter in Triple-A during the 2015 campaign. Seen by many as a reliever long term though, the tall hurler put it together at the end. Deserving of a September call up, Meyer owned a 0.79 ERA and allowed just a .192/.293/.205 slash line against across his final 10 games (22.2 IP). In that time frame, he struck out 22 while walking just 10. With Meyer, there's always going to be heightened walk issues, but he's also capable of blowing it by big league hitters. 2016 should see Meyer become one of the most untouchable pitchers in the Twins bullpen.
     
    Goodbye To Jorge Polanco Or Eddie Rosario
     
    Defensively, you'd be hard pressed to find a better rookie in 2015 than Rosario. He gave the Twins 16 assists, was worth 11 defensive runs saved, and put up a 7.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). As a defender, Rosario was worthy of the highest praise. Offensively though, the story was much more smoke and mirrors. Despite a respectable .267/.289/.459 slash line, his numbers were bolstered by an unrepeatable 15 triples. The rookie swung and missed just shy of 15% of the time, and chased out of the zone nearly 50% of the time, neither a recipe for success.
     
    Coming to Polanco, the story is virtually the opposite. Forced into playing shortstop, despite arm concerns, due to Brian Dozier holding down second base, Polanco struggled. In 102 games between AA-AAA in 2015, Polanco committed 28 errors at short. In fact, he totaled eight errors in just 19 games at the Triple-A level. His bat has rarely been a question, and his .288/.339/.386 slash across both levels suggests it's major league ready. Unfortunately with the Twins, he's a man without a position.
     
    At some point in the year ahead, Max Kepler should push Rosario for playing time in left field. Should Rosario continue to swing and miss, he becomes a 4th outfielder for the Twins in a best case scenario. With value as high as it may even be, a trade could be the Twins best move. Similarly with Polanco, Minnesota will be forced into a decision. Dozier isn't moving any time soon, and Polanco hasn't given the Twins much defensive hope. Packaging him for some sort of return could be a good bet in the year ahead.
     
    Byung Ho Launches 30 Homers
     
    Surprising most of the baseball world, the Twins ended up winning the bid for the KBO superstar. Park comes to the Twins on an incredibly team friendly deal, even if things don't work out. The expectation though, should be that they will. Fresh off of two 50 home run seasons in Korea, Byung Ho brings his talents to the major leagues.
     
    Having struck out 142 and 161 times in the past two seasons respectively, Park is going to eclipse the 200 strikeout mark for the Twins. Major league pitching will present a new test for him, but the 29 year old should also bring plenty of talent to the plate on his own. There's no doubt going to be an acclimation period, but Park surpassing the 30 home run barrier seems like a pretty good bet. Fellow KBO star, Jung Ho Kang smashed 15 homers for the Pirates in 2015 despite playing just 126 games and starting slow. Park, the superior talent, should dwarf that number and have the Twins thanking him for it.
     
    Jose Berrios Impersonates Jacob deGrom
     
    More than any time in recent memory, the Twins have significant pitching depth. With a handful of capable arms, they are looking for some to rise to the top. Enter top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. I expect him to debut sometime in May, and make over 20 starts for the Twins. With that kind of run in front of him, I expect the hard working Puerto Rican to push for Jacob deGrom type rookie numbers.
     
    In his rookie season, deGrom won the NL Rookie of the Year behind a 2.69 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 while walking just 2.8 per nine innings. He gave up just seven homers and pitched just over 140 innings for the Mets. Berrios actually got better at Triple-A (2.62 ERA as opposed to 3.08 at Double-A) and owned a ridiculous 1.08 ERA across his final four starts. Berrios tallied two double-digit strikeout games in 12 Triple-A starts, and added two more starts with nine sat down. Often discounted by national types, Berrios should come onto the scene and immediately be viewed as an ace for Minnesota.
     
    There you have it, your five bold predictions for the 2016 Minnesota Twins. No doubt not all of them will happen, but each of them presents a very solid opportunity for the Twins to bolster their chances at a realistic playoff run. Going out on a limb and suggesting what may be a bit of a reach, only puts the situation in play to be something to strive for. With the Twins bold predictions now handled, I'll leave you with this:
     
    Royals Win The Central, But No Team Wins Or Loses 90 Games
     
    Somewhat similar to my feelings last year on the latter half, I'll give the Royals their due in the former part of this equation. Coming off a World Series win, it's probably time to stop picking against Kansas City. I hate their rotation, and don't expect some of the offensive pieces to be as good as they were (Moustakas/Cain), but that probably isn't enough to knock them out of the top spot.
     
    With no real clear cut favorite in the division, no team should run away with things, or fall too far behind. The Central should be a division that beats up on one another, and a group of teams in which no one is great or equally horrible. What that gives baseball fans is a full season worth of games that all make the outcome incredibly important.
     
    Spring Training is nearly in full swing, and it's time to welcome back Major League Baseball. Here we go.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    Joe Mauer has been a living embodiment of what the Minnesota Twins represent for nearly his entire career. He's the milk-drinking, Minnesota-nice, head-down, hard working ballplayer that has been the face of the franchise for the better part of the last 10 years. After trending downwards for the past few seasons, it's fair to wonder when Mauer's reign comes to an end.
     
    The immediate and shortest response is that the time has not yet come.
     
    Sure, each of the past two seasons, Mauer's numbers have gone in the wrong direction. After batting a career worst .277/.361/.371 in 2014, Joe followed it up with an even worse .265/.338/.380 slash line last season. Although he hit double-digit home runs (10) after just four in 2014, his performance was largely buoyed by timely hitting in situations with runners in scoring position. His two year splits aren't good, and neither is the trend he's currently following.
     
    That said, there's absolutely reason for hope. There's little room to argue that Mauer's production has been sapped by anything other than significant brain trauma. Despite the documented concussions that he's had to deal with behind the plate, the beating he took playing catcher also did him no favors. Although Mauer has since moved to first based, he's noted that vision issues have continued to persist, and no doubt, his athletic ability has decreased to a certain extent.
     
    A season ago, Mauer played in 158 of 162 games for the Twins. As he further distances himself from the serious concussion issues he's dealt with, there's hope that his abilities begin to either somewhat return, or diminish at a slower pace. Following up a season in which he played the most games in his career, the Twins can only hope that 2016 is the next step in that turned corner.
     
    Going into the year, Steamer projections have Mauer slated for a .274/.355/.390 slash line. He's projected to come in just under double-digit home runs (with 9) and see a slight dip in RBI (63). Mauer has always been more of a doubles hitter, and the projections see him nearing 30 (28) again in 2016. After posting a 0.3 fWAR in 2015, the expectation is that he improves by a full win (1.3). In total, that's production the Twins could absolutely be happy with.
     
    Looking at where Mauer tops out at, age begins to become as much of a question as does the previous injury concerns. This being Mauer's age 33 season, it's probably now or never for the turnaround. A few days ago on Twitter, I offered the opinion that Mauer has a chance to hit .300 in 2016, but if he doesn't he won't ever again. That seems like a pretty fair assessment, and a relative summary of where I believe Mauer's career to be at.
     
    While he is not old, he's also not young by baseball's standards. His previous brain injuries have taken the best parts of his game from him, and if we don't see a resurgence now, we likely never will. At this point, it's in the Twins best interest to find out if that resurgence is coming. Regardless of the fact that Mauer will never hit like a true first basemen, being a 1.0+ fWAR player still puts him in the asset category to manager Paul Molitor.
     
    Minnesota shuffled positions this offseason in moving Miguel Sano to the outfield and bringing in Byung Ho Park. As things stand today, having Trevor Plouffe, Sano, Park, and Mauer all in the lineup gives the Twins the best chance to win. Should the summer months roll around and Mauer have regressed even further, the argument could begin to be made to look at other options. For now however, that shouldn't be the case.
     
    If you want to move mauer down in the lineup (and I would), it makes sense. Asking him to be a replacement player at this point is jumping the gun however. His production has to be tied to logical expectations of what he is both capable of and helps the Twins, not what is deemed acceptable for the position he plays
     
    When the dust settles on the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Twins should have a pretty clear picture of where they can go with Joe Mauer. The season ahead is one that needs to play out for that picture to reveal itself however. Making assumptions or decisions based upon what has happened in his first two years at a new position is too knee jerk for me. Let the year ahead play out, and then begin to talk through the hard realities that may lie ahead.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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