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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    In the 2000 film, Remember the Titans, two teammates are depicted proclaiming "Left side!, Strong Side!" In doing so, they're referring to the strength of their team (or more accurately, the offensive side of the ball). On defense in 2017, the Minnesota Twins may not find themselves proclaiming that the left side of the diamond is anything close to strong. The question is, how much of a problem is it.
     
    Thinking about the way in which the Twins will likely set up their Opening Day lineup (I took a stab here), the left side of the field could be a massive black hole. At third base, Miguel Sano is all but certain to get the majority of the time. Shortstop is going to be manned by Jorge Polanco after the Twins held onto Brian Dozier, and left field is likely to be played by a combination of Robbie Grossman and Eddie Rosario.
     
    Looking at that group as a whole, they combined to be worth -31 defensive runs saved (of which Grossman accounted for -21). At third, Sano has found a tough time staying within himself. His range is acceptable enough to play the role, but he often finds his feet unsettled, throws rushed, and has displayed errant accuracy far too often when throwing across the diamond. Polanco has never been expected to have the arm strength to stick at short, and the last time he regularly played the role prior to last season was at Double-A in 2015.
     
    In the outfield, Eddie Rosario went from an assist machine to replacement level. Assists being a fickle measure, teams simply stopped running on him a year ago. He backed up his 12 assists in 2015 with just four in 2016, all while going from 10 DRS to zero. The speed is there, but whether or not he's all in and committed on a nightly basis remains to be seen, and has been a knock throughout his career. Grossman totaled a defensive season in left that would make Delmon Young and Josh Willingham blush. He's been right around league average previously, but he'll have to prove the massive cliff he fell off in 2016 was simply a misstep.
     
    Although the Twins didn't do much this offseason to elevate themselves through the free agent market, part of the draw behind Jason Castro was his pitch framing skills. The idea is the with him behind the plate, Minnesota's pitching woes would be somewhat addressed. The reality is that if the entire left side of the field struggles to help out, it's going to end up as a net loss anyways.
     
    The Twins 5.39 ERA among starters a season ago was worst in the big leagues. What's worth noting though is the 4.82 FIP they posted (although still not good coming in at 28th) is virtually a half a run shy of what the actual results were. On the relief side of the equation, things weren't too different. Minnesota relievers owned a 4.63 ERA but posted a 4.18 FIP. Boiling it down to the Twins playing bad defense last year is a pretty easy suggestion, but also one that's widely known.
     
    What 2017 presents as a question is whether or not things will get better. Byron Buxton sticking in the MLB outfield for the whole season should help guys on both sides of him. If the Twins don't develop the left side of the diamond though, they'll have a glaring deficiency for opposing teams to exploit. It's going to be something worth watching, and a development that I'd guess Twins pitchers have a close eye on as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, and many of recent memory for that matter, Twins fans have talked of the word rebuild. In describing the organization, rebuilding was a way to define the idea that the Twins needed and influx of new talent that would get them back into relevancy. While that has been a fair assessment of where the club has found itself, a new reality has set in. That time period is over, the rebuilding is done.
     
    On Twitter recently, I stumbled across a conversation Twins beat writer Brandon Warne was having. He summarized the Twins current situation by saying, "The Twins rebuild is in a lot of ways over. There isn't much else to strip down. It's time to build." I'm not sure there's a more eloquent way to put it.
     
    When it comes to big league baseball, there's only a few realities that face a team. Either your a serious World Series contender, you're treading water somewhere in the middle with a vertical trajectory of one direction, or you've committed to an influx of minor league talent with the idea that it pans out at the highest level.
     
    To be completely fair, suggesting a team is a World Series contender is somewhat of a fickle practice. Sure, the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers are juggernauts, but making it into the playoffs makes you a contender of sorts. Although the exits were always quick, that's a stage that the Twins found themselves in during the run of AL Central titles under Ron Gardenhire. They quickly moved through the water treading phase (on a downward trajectory), and went into the doldrums of needing to stockpile talent. At this point though, the cycle has already begun to rotate.
     
    While Paul Molitor's club isn't going to be kicking in the Postseason door when the 2017 season draws to a close, they've absolutely entered back into the pool of mediocrity, but with an upward trajectory this time. By suffering through the poor stretch, they've stockpiled talent, and at one point had one of the best farm systems in baseball.
     
    The rebuild in which the Twins needed to undertake was highlighted by prospects such as Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler. Those names are no longer found on prospect lists, they aren't rookie eligible, and they are all basically entrenched at the big league level. At this point, it's on the Twins to support them developmentally as best they can, and get them to contribute over the course of a 162 game season.
     
    Although the Twins failed to generate much of anything in the pitching category, the rebuild portion of the big league turnaround is complete. You could say that names like Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero equate to some sort of replenishment when they arrive, and the hope would be that Minnesota would turn out a few more hidden gems. Right now though, the focus needs to be on sustenance.
     
    Given what is left on the free agent market, I don't believe that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are best positioned to spend. They'd likely be giving too much money to players not necessarily deserving of it. Save for Mike Napoli as a rotational partner with Joe Mauer and Byungho Park, I'm good with the Twins standing pat. Entering 2018 is another story however.
     
    A year from now, Minnesota will be more able to accurately gauge where there young stars are, what the roster deficiencies seem to be, and how to attack them. A frontline starter should be on the shopping list, and pulling out some significant stops to enter back into contender mode for a stretch makes a lot of sense.
     
    When a big league team is losing, it's fair to consider what their plan truly is. However, calling a struggling team rebuilding is a lazy excuse to categorize something that may very well not be the case. Minnesota has moved out of that phase and onto the next one, this team is rebuilding no more.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    It wasn't the 11th hour, but times were getting desperate in Los Angeles. The Dodgers had spent the entire winter talking with the Minnesota Twins about the possibility of acquiring All Star second basemen Brian Dozier. Needing a second basemen to fix a glaring hole occupied by the aging Chase Utley a season ago, the Dodgers needed to act. In the end, they did, but it wasn't with the Twins.
     
    Trading pitching prospect Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for Logan Forysthe, the Dodgers found their man. Forsythe is 30 years old, and under team control for the next two years (with an $8.5m team option for 2018). He was worth 2.8 fWAR in 2016, 4.0 in 2014, and -0.5 three years ago in 2014.
     
    How does that stack up against the Twins Dozier? Brian is just a bit younger still at 29, but is also under team control for each of the next two seasons. He was worth 5.9 fWAR as an All Star in 2016, and has been worth 2.5, 4.7, and 3.3 fWAR from 2013-2015 respectively. While very similar, the Twins two bagger is the slightly superior big leaguer.
     
    In dealing De Leon straight up for Forsythe, the Twins position that there man was worth more than a 1-for-1 deal becomes immediately justified. Where the Twins maybe outkicked their coverage, was in who they were asking for along with the top pitching prospect. Names like Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, and Cody Bellinger were all thrown around. Los Angeles had no compelling reason to move any of those three, and it's understandable why they'd draw a line there. Had Minnesota stepped back to Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun, they may have found a more willing dance partner.
     
    At the end of the day, it comes down to opportunity cost for Los Angeles. In nabbing Forsythe, they get a lesser second basemen than the one the originally were targeting, but they also hold onto more of their assets. De Leon has some shoulder concerns, and the Dodgers have been said to be lower on him than other organizations may be. While Stewart and Calhoun aren't top tier guys, they provide strong depth that now stays on the farm. Los Angeles decided the added boost from Dozier wasn't worth the premium price tag.
     
    With it being all but certain now that Dozier stays in Minnesota for the forseeable future, the Twins have left themselves with a couple different realities at play. First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stepped in and had an immediate strong showing. As noted at the end of Nick Nelson's piece, the way in which the front office stood their ground was impressive, and is something Terry Ryan probably wasn't known for. It will absolutely influence how other teams go about business with the Twins new brass in the future.
     
    Secondly though, the Twins have kept one of the best second basemen in all of baseball on their roster. The harm in that in and of itself is nil, the downside comes in how he is supported. At this point, the free agent market is left with virtual holdovers saved for a few names. There's not a significant impact player or two that is going to turn the Twins reality around. Dozier deserves to have talent brought in to supplement his play, but spending to do so is something the former regime wound up doing far too often.
     
    Instead, the Twins should sit and wait. Last season was a mirage of sorts in that the club wasn't the blueprint of a 103 loss team. Pitching was awful, and the offense was nonexistent at times, but the youth expected to carry the group mostly was trying to find its way. You can make the argument that even an upward trend towards mediocrity should give the Twins a realistic shot at something like 80 wins in 2017, and that'd be a heck of a turnaround in and of itself.
     
    That being said, Dozier can dictate how Falvey and Levine support him. Should he back up his incredible 2016, or really just stay somewhere in the middle of his past two seasons, he could become a trade candidate to a contender in July. More likely though, he gives Minnesota some strong play, and factors into their 2018 plans as well. With money owed to Glen Perkins and Joe Mauer quickly nearing a close, Minnesota will have plenty of funds at its disposal to bring in impact players both on the mound and in the field for the 2018 season.
     
    Right now, the Cleveland Indians remain well positioned in the AL Central. Outside of that though, the Royals are treading water, the Tigers are aging, and the White Sox are reliant on a full scale rebuild. If the Twins want to spend and supplement a year from now, it's hard to scoff at the idea they'd have a shot at being at least a divisional contender.
     
    Stocking the farm is something that Levine and Falvey need to make a priority. The reason it's bare though, is because of the talent having graduated to the big league level. It'll be on the backs of the former top prospects that a turnaround needs to happen for the Twins. Asking Brian Dozier to be a part of that is far from a bad idea, and spending on the group as a whole a year from now would make everyone happy.
     
    As Spring Training approached, the Dodgers balked on the game of chicken first. They looked at an opportunity cost being too steep and went a different direction. The haul Minnesota likely deserved was never there, and the organization was right by holding serve. Now it'll be on them to follow up the second half of the process and make Dozier feel supported throughout the lineup.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    As the 2017 Major League Baseball season quickly approaches, the Minnesota Twins are nearly set to embark on sunny Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training. There's not a lot of unknowns for the upcoming season, and much of Paul Molitor's club having success rests on known commodities stepping up. As pitching continues to remain a focal point, the Twins are still looking for their version of an ace, or an embodiment of Brad Radke.
     
    On April 3, 2017, the Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals. It's nearly a guarantee that Ervin Santana will take the mound for Molitor's club, and in doing so, will be somewhat out of the norm. In making a second straight Opening Day start for the home nine, the Twins will give the ball to the same pitcher to open consecutive seasons for the first time since Carl Pavano in 2012 and 2011. While back-to-back years with some top of the rotation certainty is nice, it's hardly a calming realization.
     
    In looking at the way in which the Twins have toed the rubber on Opening Day, they've yet to have a pitcher get the ball on three consecutive Opening Day starts since Brad Radke's run of seven straight years ended in 2005. Since then, Minnesota has asked nine different pitchers to make Opening Day starts. Although an Opening Day nod does not an ace make, it's a level of consistency that Minnesota has long lost.
     
    Brad Radke pitched 12 big league seasons and was a one-time All Star. He generated Cy Young votes once, in his age 24 season, and had a relatively mediocre big league career. What he was though, was a staple in the Twins rotation, and a guy that could be relied upon on a yearly basis. His career K/9 checked in at just 5.4, but he tallied just 1.6 BB/9 over his 2,451 major league IP. His career 4.22 ERA wasn't anything to blow you away, and while his career earnings topped $61 million, he never got any sort of an ace level payday.
     
    The reality is that the Twins of today need their version of Radke. Looking up and down the system, there's next to no true top of the rotation potential. Fernando Romero has been dubbed a potential ace for the Twins, but he's a ways away from being able to prove that at the big league level. Ervin Santana has been a steadying force among the Twins rotation, but given the current landscape, would be an ideal trade candidate.
    At some point, the Twins need to develop some pitching.
     
    We're not too far removed from the Twins throwing money at free agent arms. Terry Ryan overspent on a guy like Ricky Nolasco, before appropriately allocating on Phil Hughes (only to extend him and make it a less than ideal scenario). Every team needs top tier pitching, and the reality is that Minnesota is going to be beat out dollars wise on the market more often than not. It only highlights how much more important that internal mastery be achieved.
     
    With high draft picks in recent years, the Twins have taken arms such as Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay. The former looks like a failing high school pick that can't miss bats, while the latter profiles better as the reliever he was in college. Knowing where the franchise is, missing on must-hit arms can't continue to be a trend.
     
    If you've made it this far, I'm sorry that I can't offer you much in the form of hope. Maybe we just highlighted already accepted information, but maybe it again calls into focus how difficult landing top arms truly is. Ervin Santana will throw a second straight Opening Day for the Twins. Sure, that's a feat for this organization, but the reality is that he's not an ace, and right now, he's not even Minnesota's ghost of Brad Radke.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    There's no nice way to put it, the pitching for the Minnesota Twins was absolutely abysmal in 2016. While the club set a franchise record losing 103 games, they very easily could've avoided that fate by getting just a bit more out of the production turned in from the rubber. This season, Paul Molitor doesn't have a significantly revamped staff, but there's a few key cogs that could turn heads.
     
    While I'm not naive enough to believe that the Twins are all of a sudden going to be one of the best pitching teams in the American League, there is a path for a turnaround. Trevor May can stay healthy in the rotation, Phil Hughes could bounce back, and Jose Berrios has yet to truly emerge. Stepping aside from the big names though, I'd like to focus on a returning commodity, and one that is new to the organization.
     
    First, Tyler Duffey presents the Twins with an interesting opportunity. At 26 years old, Duffey has turned in 36 starts across two big league seasons thus far. His rookie year saw a pitcher that limited damage by keeping the ball in the yard and striking out opposing batters. As the book got out on him, and his impressive curveball, he served up 25 dingers in 2016 while being demoted back to Triple-A. I'm not sure I want to dub Duffey as a "failed starter," but I'm pretty confident he can be of more use in the pen.
     
    A former closer at Rice University, Duffey has the chops, and the pure stuff, to get hitters out in a more limited role. Over the course of his career, he's allowed a .963 OPS to batters from the 4th inning on. When facing batters in the first three innings, he's limited them to just a .743 OPS. As with most pitchers, his OPS rises the more often he faces an opposing hitter in a game. Unfortunately for Duffey, it drastically jumps from .639 the first time around to .976 in their second appearance.
     
    On top of being a pitcher that hitters adjust to, Duffey's best stuff really includes only two pitches. He's got a fastball that sits in the low-90s and a curveball that is easily his best pitch. In his big league time, he's thrown a changeup just 5.5% of the time. Duffey also isn't a guy that generates a ton of swing and misses in his current role. His big league number comes in at just 8.9% while allowing opposing hitters to make contact over 81% of the time. In a relief role, I think the tides turn in his favor some.
     
    Asking Duffey to start out in middle relief, with the potential to use him in a bit more high leverage, could be a really good thing. Out of the pen, his fastball should trend more towards the mid-90s with his curveball being a big yakker as an out pitch. Minnesota has a deficiency in the bullpen as well, and casting Tyler in the right role could be a great move for both parties. I'm sure he'll get a chance to start this spring, but with so many options, moving him to a full time relief role makes a lot of sense.
     
    The other guy is someone that I see having the potential to help Minnesota either in starting or in relief. Justin Haley was selected with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft for a reason, Minnesota thinks he can help them right now. While the Twins have had success in the Rule 5 Draft in the form of players such as Johan Santana and Ryan Pressly, I'm not ready to call Haley a guarantee. What I do think is that he has a strong enough floor that no matter how he's used, he can be effective.
     
    At 25 years old and yet to debut, Haley is no spring chicken or top prospect. However, the former Red Sox 6th round pick has seen success at each level of the farm system, and should have a pretty smooth projectability. Striking out right around eight batters per nine and walking right about three per nine over the past two seasons at Double and Triple-A, he could be a serviceable arm at the back end of the rotation. If Molitor wants to hide him a bit more, he looks like the makings of a swing man in the pen, that can eat innings and get big league hitters out,
     
    Haley has never been significantly bittern by the longball, and has posted some pretty respectable FIP numbers. I wouldn't expect him to come in and contend for the Rookie of the Year, but if he ends up being a consistent back-end starter or reliable reliever, I'd be far from shocked.
     
    It's going to take scenarios like this playing out for the Twins to turn the tide on their pitching woes. The reality is that the system may not have a true ace in it, and the big league level doesn't have much to hang its hat on either. I really like the pieces and depth that Minnesota has at its disposal, but an immediate turnaround will require guys rising to the occasion. If given the opportunity, I'd be on both Duffey and Haley answering that call.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the past few seasons, I've found myself having a player or two that emerges out of nowhere to be a key cog for the Minnesota Twins during the regular season. In 2015, it was Eddie Rosario, and last year, I was in on the Max Kepler bandwagon prior to Spring Training starting. This season, I can't seem to pinpoint someone I feel as confident about, but there's a guy that I think has a shot to help the Twins in a big way.
     
    Before we get to that though, this season should provide some competition when it comes to an emerging offensive prospect. Down the stretch a season ago, I found myself frustrated that Mitch Garver wasn't given some time behind the plate. It was clear that Juan Centeno wasn't a big leaguer, and he was taking away at bats that could've been more productively utilized. On top of that, Garver absolutely earned his way to the big leagues.
     
    In 117 games across Double and Triple-A last season, Garver posted a .764 OPS. While it wasn't the .880 OPS he tallied at Cedar Rapids in 2014, it was a great deal better than his .688 OPS at Fort Myers in 2015. On top of his offensive season (which was capped with an .815 OPS across 22 Triple-A contests), he was stellar behind the dish. Catching 60 games, he made just three errors, allowed only seven passed balls, and threw out 48% (26 of 54) of would be base stealers.
     
    Working against Garver this season though is the Twins acquisition of Jason Castro. Castro was brought in to start now, and for the forseeable future. I have Garver tabbed as the backup catcher on Opening Day, but his path to playing time could be limited for the bulk of the season.
     
    The next in this conversation is a guy I like a lot, but has a significant caveat to him. Should Brian Dozier be dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers or elsewhere, Engelb Vielma immediately becomes the starting shortstop for the Twins in my eyes. As things stand currently, Minnesota has Jorge Polanco slated to play out of position up the middle with Dozier. There's also reason to believe that Eduardo Escobar is more than capable to handle shortstop should the Twins call upon him. Vielma would bring another level defensively however.
     
    Owning just a career .636 OPS across five minor league seasons, Vielma probably isn't ever going to hit. He has a decent speed tool although he doesn't swipe a lot of bases. Primarily a contact hitter that relies on singles, Vielma's glove is his ticket to a starting role. He'd be the least sexy of the breakout candidates being a leather first option, but if the door opens, he should have the chops to walk through it.
     
    Given the circumstances and the entire landscape though, I think it's Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year Zach Granite that emerges through opportunity. He was a 14th round pick out of Seton Hall in 2013, and has been relatively consistent throughout his minor league career. While he's not a power guy or even a gap hitter, his speed will cause problems on the basepaths.
     
    In 127 games at Double-A last season, Granite stretch 18 doubles to go with eight triples, but most impressively, swiped 52 bases. He's a legit threat every time he gets on, and that speed plays in the outfield as well. He would immediately pair with the likes of Byron Buxton and Max Kepler to make a ridiculously good trio defensively, and that alone should get him an extended look for Opening Day.
     
    It's a decent amount to ask a 23 year old to jump from Double-A to the big leagues, and Granite has progressed one level at a time in his tenure with the Twins, but if there's a skillset that makes sense, it's his. He gives Paul Molitor a speed threat off the bench, and is reliable with the bat to battle in the box. Over his career, he's struck out just 149 times in 337 games while drawing 130 walks. He battles at the dish and causes havoc for opposing pitchers.
     
    Unlike Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler before him, Granite doesn't have the high ceiling or prospect status. He does possess some pretty strong projectable tools though, and is someone that should have a really safe floor. On a Twins team looking for consistency, and always in need of defensive help, Granite seems to fit the bill.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are quickly closing in on an end to the offseason. With pitchers and catchers reporting to sunny Fort Myers in short order, Paul Molitor and the Twins brass will need to evaluate who they take north to start the 2017 season. Projecting the 25 man roster in January once again leaves plenty of room for shifting, but I'll try to sort through what I see happening.
     
    This offseason, Brian Dozier had been the talk of the town in regards to a potential trade with the Dodgers. He's not going anywhere now, and it would seem, for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, here's the 25 guys I believe Paul Molitor is best positioned to win with in 2017 assuming Derek Falvey and Thad Levine hold onto their second basemen.
     
    Rotation (5)
    Ervin Santana
    Phil Hughes
    Kyle Gibson
    Hector Santiago
    Trevor May

    The biggest question mark here is Phil Hughes. Coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery, his health remains a major question. Players heal differently, and the surgery isn't one that has been perfected on baseball players by any means. I think he goes out of the gate, and the hope would be that his troubles are behind him health wise.
     
    If Hughes is unable to stake claim to a rotation spot, I'd look next at Nick Tepesch, Adalberto Mejia and Jose Berrios with the latter holding a slight advantage. In reality, I think both start at Triple-A. Gibson, Santana, and Santiago are locks, unless Minnesota decides to make a late play on trading Ervin (which I'd support). Trevor May has worked as a reliever for much of the last two seasons now, but his back simply can't hack it. He may not be as dominant strikeout wise as a starter, but I think it's the best role for him to consistently contribute.
     
    A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting rotation in baseball and it wasn't particularly close. It shouldn't be that bad again, but this group being around league average is quite a stretch too.
     
    Starting Lineup (9)
    Jason Castro C
    Joe Mauer 1B
    Brian Dozier 2B
    Jorge Polanco SS
    Miguel Sano 3B
    Eddie Rosario LF
    Byron Buxton CF
    Max Kepler RF
    Byungho Park DH

    Most of this should be pretty expected. Castro was brought in to start, and Dozier keeps the duo with Polanco up the middle if he stays. I'd like to see Mauer play less, but he remains the club's best defensive first basemen. Sano should settle into third a bit more, and the outfield should be pretty much set. I could see Molitor going Grossman in left over Rosario, but I think you start with the upside play of Rosario.
     
    The one player that I continue to be higher on than everyone else is Byungho Park. I think there was a lot more to the wrist injury last year than we were told, and I'd be far from surprised to see him have a bounce back season. KBO players have fared well in the big leagues, and being the best over there, should give him a fighting chance.
     
    Ideally, I'd rather not have Polanco playing shortstop, but Dozier would need to be moved for that to happen. Sano also has to get significantly better defensively this season if he's going to help Twins pitchers out.
     
    Bench (4)
    Eduardo Escobar
    Robbie Grossman
    Mitch Garver
    Zach Granite

    This is probably the toughest area thus far to nail down just because of what options the Twins have at their disposal. I'd consider both Escobar and Grossman to be locks, but from there things get dicey. For the backup catcher role, John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver, and Chris Gimenez will need to battle it out. Gimenez has a leg up with Falvey, while Murphy was brought in by the former regime. I'm going with the offensive play here though, and believed that Garver deserved a shot last season. It's time he gets it.
     
    I really wrestled with the last spot, and Granite ends up getting the nod for me. J.B. Shuck was worth -13 DRS over 60 games in CF for the White Sox last season. I like Daniel Palka a lot, but he can't play centerfield, and Danny Santana offers little in the way of offense or defense at this point. Granite would be making a big jump from Double-A, and he really only started to hit last season. That said, he'll steal bases, can be a pinch runner, and give Minnesota elite defense at all three outfield spots off of the bench.
     
    Bullpen (7)
    Brandon Kintzler Closer
    Ryan Pressly Setup
    J.T. Chargois Setup
    Taylor Rogers
    Michael Tonkin
    Tyler Duffey
    Justin Haley

    There's a pretty glaring omission here, and that's by design. I'm not counting on Glen Perkins to be back for the Twins on Opening Day, and I'm far from certain as to what he'll give them throughout the season. Perkins underwent serious shoulder surgery in which he required his labrum being reattached to his shoulder. I'd love to see him return, look like an All Star, and be a potential trade chip to a contender in July. I just don't see it happening.
     
    That being said, the closer incumbent is Brandon Kintzler. He's not an ideal fit in that he doesn't get the ball by anyone. He struck out just 5.8 per nine last season, but he also walked just 1.3 per nine. I'd rather get Kintzler to a lower leverage role, and I think the emergence of J.T. Chargois can accomplish that. I like Pressly a lot and think he also could factor into save situations for the Twins.
     
    Taylor Rogers and Michael Tonkin return with both being reliable if not incredibly high ceiling options. By moving Duffey back to the pen, he settles into a scenario that he's familiar with having been a college reliever. His limited pitch repertoire should play up more in relief, and he could be a dominant arm. Rounding out the group, and operating as the long man, is Justin Haley. Selected with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft, Haley doesn't have an incredible ceiling, but should have a pretty safe floor.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins removed Terry Ryan as general manager last season, and in doing so, brought in a completely new way of thinking in the form of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. While there's plenty of reason to believe the new structure will work better, there's question as to how what's in place will be handled. For the most part, a roster overhaul isn't a one offseason thing, but there's two players that could see their fate hang in the balance.
     
    First comes in the form of Byungho Park. He was a surprise signing by the Twins last offseason, and was expected to come in and take over the designated hitter duties. There was some concern that Park simply added more of a logjam to the list of DH/1B types for the Twins, but the narrative didn't play out in his favor. A prolific home run hitter in Korea, he struggled mightily in the big leagues, and the strikeouts outweighed the power production.
     
    What's worth bringing up with Park though, is that he dealt with a wrist injury for much of his rookie season stateside. I am in the camp that believes he pressed, and tried to play through the pain a bit more than he let on. Given the overall success of Korean players in the big leagues, Park being arguably the best hitter to ever come over, appears as a massive outlier when looking at his major league production.
     
    Neither Derek Falvey nor Thad Levine had input on the $24.8 million that was invested in the Korean slugger. While it's a substantial amount, teams have cut bait with much worse. Despite their lack of involvement in the deal, I find it hard to believe that Park won't again be in the Twins plans this season. Joe Mauer doesn't profile as a regular anymore, and I'd prefer Park over Kennys Vargas defensively. Given the belief I have in the upside, as well as the reality that Vargas has another option year to his name, I think the new front office allows Park another chance to flash his stuff in the majors.
     
    On the flip side of the coin, I'm not so sure that catcher John Ryan Murphy will be given the same benefit of the doubt. Acquired by Ryan when he dealt former top prospect Aaron Hicks to the Yankees, Murphy was supposed to come in and take away the starting catcher role from Kurt Suzuki. Unfortunately, Murphy managed just 26 games at the MLB level, and his .413 OPS was an incredibly disappointing showing.
     
    Neither Falvey nor Levine have any skin in the game when it comes to either Hicks or Murphy. Given that reality, it's not necessarily on their record to care whether or not the Twins look like the exchange had any benefit for the organization. On top of that, Murphy did little to earn his way back up while at Triple-A. He owned just a .609 OPS in over 80 games, and he struggle to throw out base stealers nabbing just 21% of them.
     
    This offseason, the Twins have signed Jason Castro to be their starting catcher. On top of that, they brought in former Indians catcher Chris Gimenez, and have minors depth with Mitch Garver, Dan Rohlfing, and Eddy Rodriguez. There was real weight to the argument that Garver outplayed Murphy a season ago, and he should be given some extra belief because of that as we head into 2017. The Triple-A team isn't going to carry four catchers, and while I'd doubt Minnesota cuts ties with Murphy, I would be far from shocked if he's relegated to a backup minor league role.
     
    When a new front office comes in, it's obvious they are dealt a hand left over from whatever was in place prior to their arrival. It's been a relatively difficult challenge to handle the Brian Dozier scenario right out of the gate I'd imagine, but when it comes to more roster filling players, the new men in charge will have their opportunity to put faith behind who they best see fit. Park and Murphy are hardly the only players in this camp. Honestly, Vargas, Danny Santana, and even someone like Buddy Boshers could all join them. Watching how the duo navigates the spring will definitely be worthwhile.
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins haven't done much to add to a club that lost a franchise worst 103 games a season ago. While a rebuild seems logical, and a new front office has been installed, it's hard to fault the organization for taking a wait and see approach. Offensively this club isn't in a bad place, and while pitching is an issue, it shouldn't be historically bad again. However, looking at the potential 25 man roster, there's two former prospects that could be on the outside looking in.
     
    First as primarily an outfielder, and maybe more egregiously a super utility player, Danny Santana comes to mind. At 26 years old, he's hardly a kid anymore, and the BABIP inflated rookie debut seems like a distant memory. After slashing .319/.353/.472 in 2014, he's combined to slash a paltry .227/.259/.308 over 166 games the past two seasons. What started out as a nice outfield emergence has turned into a player with a ton of question marks.
     
    Arguably the largest feather in Santana's cap is that he's out of options. Minnesota can no longer hope he works on things in Rochester, and any trip to Triple-A would require him to pass through waivers unclaimed (unlikely). At the big league level though, it's hard to find value outside of a guy that can simply occupy space. Defensively, Santana has been nothing short of underwhelming. He was worth -15 DRS at SS in 2015 prior to losing the job, and he cost the Twins -9 DRS in the outfield over 63 games a season ago. With an already suspect pitching staff, poor defense isn't an ideal pairing.
     
    At the plate, Santana's swinging strike rate has increased yearly, and it's been in tandem with a declining contact number. He's a guy that relies on his speed to stretch bases, although he's not much of a base stealer either. Walking less than 4% of the time over the course of his career, his plate approach leaves plenty to be desired and doesn't give him an ideal lineup spot.
     
    In short, Santana is a guy that the Twins could absolutely carry as a 25th man out of fear that he's plucked on waivers. Most organizations have someone similar to Santana, but as a reclamation project in a more defined role on a decent club, he could have value. In keeping Santana however, the Twins would be failing to capitalize on an opportunity to stretch the upside at the back end of their 25 man roster. A player like Santana isn't the difference in contending, but he represents an area where a known commodity can be replaced with higher-ceiling talent.
     
    That brings us to another Twin that had a bit more prospect steam going for him, Kennys Vargas. A year ago, Vargas posted an .833 OPS, but it was almost solely carried by 18 games in the middle of the summer. Joining Minnesota on July 4, Vargas slashed .333/.446/.683 through July 31. In that span he mashed four homers while drawing 13 walks to go with his 18 strikeouts. If Paul Molitor could get anything close to that consistently he'd have to be elated. Vargas then played just 29 more games for Minnesota slashing .163/.252/.380 with six homers and a 39/11 strikeout to walk ratio.
     
    A power guy that has failed to command the zone, Minnesota has demoted Vargas previously for his lack of home run production. He was granted another option year this season, and that stands to weigh heavily in the Twins decision making during roster crunch time.
     
    Things were a bit more encouraging for Vargas a season ago. he hits the ball hard, and his 40% hard hit rate was the best of his career. He also decreased his swinging strike number to just under 12% and posted a rising contact rate. The unfortunate reality though is that Vargas owns a career contact number of just 71.8%. For a guy his size, and making contact less frequently, you'd absolutely expect to see more balls leave the yard.
     
    Defensively, Vargas is far from a black hole. In 32 games he posted just -1 DRS and was serviceable more often than not. He's far from the Gold Glove caliber defense that Joe Mauer has developed at first base, but as a secondary option, he's better than passable. Given that the Twins have a glut of designated hitter types, Vargas will always have to bring his mitt to the yard if he wants to carve out regular playing time.
     
    Quite possibly the biggest deterrent for Vargas' chances to make the Opening Day roster rest on the shoulders of Byungho Park. After being acquired by the previous regime, there's reason to wonder how both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former Korean Baseball Organization slugger. Coming back healthy after a wrist injury, I expect a nice turnaround year for Park, and his second season in the big leagues should overshadow his first. With Vargas able to start at Triple-A, it would make sense to reason that first base alongside Mauer, is Park's job to lose.
     
    I'm not sold on either Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas being everyday big leaguers for the Minnesota Twins or otherwise. Of the two though, it's Santana that strikes me as less of a loss should he be jettisoned from the organization. There's always going to be appeal for power guys in today's game, and while Vargas profiles as such, I'm not sure there's been enough convincing done to suggest he can deliver just yet.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    We've now turned the calendar to 2017, and the offseason is quickly coming to a close. The Minnesota Twins will report to sunny Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, and shortly thereafter Opening Day will be upon us. Dominating headlines this winter has been what the Twins will do with Brian Dozier, and it is in that decision that we can raise questions about what the plan for the future is.
     
    Conventional wisdom says that the Twins should trade Brian Dozier for the best possible return. He's the club's best player, coming off of a career year, and there's just two years left on his team friendly contract. While Paul Molitor's club should be a far cry from the 103 losses they suffered in 2016, expecting a deep playoff run isn't realistic either. With Minnesota arguably more than just two years away, Dozier's greatest value is in what he brings back that can supplement the next Postseason team.
     
    Unfortunately, the market for Dozier hasn't materialized as Minnesota has needed it to. The Los Angeles Dodgers have seemed like the best fit from the get go, but they have also become virtually the only landing spot. While top prospect Jose De Leon is a nice get for the Twins, he alone doesn't represent fair value for the All Star second basemen. With no other bidders however, the Twins are watching as fair value is turned into what someone will pay.
     
    Whether or not a trade is consummated by the two sides, I find it hard to suggest that Minnesota should take less than Dozier is worth (De Leon by himself), but the flip side is also worth questioning. If De Leon on his own is short-ending the Twins now, is holding Dozier for a potential non-existent return in the future even worse?
     
    You could make the case that Brian Dozier may hold value to a contender somewhere around the 2017 trade deadline, and if you want to go further, that he may present value for Minnesota as a guy that could be tagged with a qualifying offer two years from now. Both of those hopes require that he continue to produce at a very high level however. For a guy that has reinvented himself into a power pull hitter, Dozier will need to stay ahead of opposing pitchers as he looks to keep playing at a high level.
     
    So what happens when you don't trade Dozier? Well, both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have some explaining to do when it comes to future plans. Even though Minnesota isn't likely to lose 100+ games again in 2017, returning Dozier doesn't make them relevant. Worse is that in returning Dozier, and with the free agent market where it is, the roster will be constructed in virtually an identical way it was a season ago. That development would signify a hesitancy to rebuild, while not committing to an ability to compete.
     
    The reason Brian Dozier has been tabbed as such a fit for the Dodgers is because they are a couple pieces short of a World Series, and second base appears the most vacant hole. A team like the Dodgers is in a position to give up top prospects to win now. They have up and coming talent, while also being in a position where one or two pieces put them in a contender position. Unfortunately for the Twins, the farm system is non-existent with virtually all prospects of value being at the big league level, and the major league club isn't yet ready to turn the corner.
     
    On his own, Dozier is a luxury for Minnesota at this point. He represents a player that is out of position given the organizational structure. With the new brain trust deciding not to bring in any real firepower, top notch pitching or positional talent, Dozier stands to be a wasted commodity should he remain in the organization.
     
    There's still reason to believe Dozier is moved; obviously the offseason isn't over. That said, if Minnesota decides to hold on him while not bringing in other top tier talent, the reality of some weird purgatory will set in. This team isn't going anywhere this year, and asking Brian Dozier to stick around to witness it while deciding against future plans seems like an odd decision.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    The Major League Baseball offseason is now well into the heart of winter. Multiple big name free agents have been signed, and a handful of large trade chips have been moved. For the Minnesota Twins, the talk has been all about Brian Dozier and a potential fit with the Los Angeles Dodgers. What's worth wondering though is why the club hasn't shopped Ervin Santana more.
     
    Entering 2017, Santana will be 34 years old, and still have two years left on his contract (as well as a 2019 team option). He's coming off a season in which he posted his best ERA since 2013, and was nothing short of dominant for stretches during the year. Over his final 18 starts, he tallied a 2.41 ERA and allowed opposing hitters just a .589 OPS against him. For the Twins, Santana represented an ace.
     
    The unfortunate reality however is that Minnesota still lost a franchise worst 103 games. Santana was only given enough run support to record a 7-11 win/loss record over his 30 starts, and in the grand scheme of the season, his strong year did little to elevate the club to any new heights. To summarize, Paul Molitor's club lost consistently despite Santana's efforts.
     
    On the mound, his numbers were backed by physical prowess as well. His 92.7 mph average fastball velocity was the hardest he has thrown since 2008 with the Angels. The Dominican native was generating over a 10% swinging strike rate for just the fourth time in his career, and he was allowing one of the lowest contact rates of his big league tenure at 78.8%. Again, despite the Twins not seeing any success, the opposite was true with Ervin Santana.
     
    Now the idea on dealing Brian Dozier is that he's a luxury for the Twins. They aren't in a position to make a playoff run any time in the immediate future, and Dozier is coming off a great season in which he should command a nice return. If the Twins are looking to accumulate talent, trading a player like Dozier at this point in time is exactly how you do it. What's interesting is that many of the same principles apply to Ervin Santana.
     
    Sure, Santana is just under five years older than Minnesota's second basemen. He also is owed at least $28 million over the next three years as opposed to Dozier's $15 million. What Santana does have going for him though is a market void of pitching options, and teams starving for them. This offseason, Rich Hill was given just shy of $50 million after spending part of 2015 pitching in Indy Ball. One rule is always true, teams will pay for pitching and even moreso when there is little to be had.
     
    It's possible, though rather unlikely, that the Twins make the playoffs in the next two seasons. They don't have the pieces to make a deep run, and Ervin Santana doesn't push the envelope significantly farther than the position the club would be in without him. That brings us to what should be a realization that he's an expendable asset. While Minnesota doesn't have pitching on its own, flipping Santana for a prospect or two that pairs with the timeline of the club's ability to compete makes a lot of sense.
     
    You can make the argument that Santana may have value around the July trade deadline with the Twins having paid more of his contract. However, he's coming off his best performance in years, and any steps backwards could negate the monetary gain. If I'm the Twins, I'd be equally as aggressive in shopping Santana as they have been on Dozier, obviously knowing the return will be different.
     
    When you don't have pitching it's tough to compete, but hanging onto depreciating assets to create the illusion you have pieces doesn't make a ton of sense either. Minnesota would be best served to get something back for Santana before it's too late.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    2017 is here, Miguel Sano is 23 years old, and the Minnesota Twins can finally call him a focal point on their 25 man roster. The long time heralded prospect out of the Dominican has long since made his big league debut, but many around Twins Territory are still awaiting his breakout campaign. In 2017, as a 24 year old, Sano coming into his own may be the best thing possible for the local nine.
     
    I've been pretty critical of Paul Molitor's handling of young players. To put it mildly, I don't believe he's done an exceptional, or even an average job, of relating to his youth. While they represent the lifeblood of this organization's future, the skipper has seemed unsure at how to best utilize them more often than not. For players like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, they'll need to come into their own despite that belief.
     
    For Sano, he's got 196 big league games under his belt, and has launched his first 43 major league home runs. Last winter I wrote about what a long term extension may look like for the Twins and Sano, and while that was coming off a ridiculous rookie year, he's still going to be worthy of a big pay day at some point. His 2016 didn't follow the same narrative however, and a step backwards equated to over a .100 point drop in the Twins hulking slugger's OPS. So, what lies ahead for Sano, and how does he achieve what that is?
     
    Through his first 196 games at the big league level, Sano has played over half of his games as a designated hitter. While destined for third base ideally, he was jettisoned to right field for 2016 as the Twins overcrowded their corners. Now with Trevor Plouffe out of the picture, the hot corner should be Sano's to lose, but that could certainly happen.
     
    A small sample size to be sure, 51 games specifically, Sano has turned in a -3 DRS at third base. His range has been average, and his arm strength isn't an issue even after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The real problem in the field for Sano seems to be accuracy, and potentially effort. Too often, he seems lackadaisical in his pursuit of balls in play, and then sails them past his teammate over at first. Lumbering around at something north of 270 pounds, Sano will need to be doing everything right to stick on the left side of the infield.
     
    There's some merit in the thought that Sano would find success playing first base. The unfortunate downside there is that Joe Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber defender, even if he's not equipped to be an every day regular anymore, and I still believe in Byungho Park. On top of that, Minnesota would be asking Sano to switch to his third position in the majors over the course of three seasons. Sure, it's a possibility down the road, but I think Sano getting the most of himself coincides with making it work at third base.
     
    At the plate, there's no shortage of belief in the potential that Sano has shown. Yes he has swing and miss tendencies, but in today's game, he should punish baseball's enough to make that alright to deal with. After hitting 18 homers in 80 games during his rookie campaign, Sano his 25 in 116 last year (a 39 per 162 pace). Whether Brian Dozier is with the 2017 Twins or not, I'd be far from shocked to see Sano launch 40 homers and lead the club.
     
    In 2017, Sano has plenty of room for growth. After an OPS drop a year ago, he also saw his BABIP dip by nearly 70 points. For a guy that hits the ball "hard" over 40% of the time, that number should always push closer to .400 than .300 (.329 in 2016). He did fall roughly 3% in his hard contact rate a season ago, which suggests that he may have been seeing the ball a bit worse as his chase rate, swinging strike percentage, and contact rate all improved. When putting the ball in play, Sano generated line drives less often, and 6% less of his fly balls left thet park, neither or which helped his cause.
     
    Obviously after a great rookie campaign in 2015, the league would make adjustments against him as well. He still sees a good deal of fastballs (over one-third of the pitches he faced), but there was also a 4% spike in the amount of curveballs and sliders thrown his way the past year. Striking out at roughly the same rate in 2016 (36%) as 2015 (35.5%), Sano's point of contact was probably to blame for some of his struggles.
     
    When at his best, Miguel Sano is dictating plate appearances. He needs to continue to draw walks at a high rate (which he did better in 2015), and get ahead in counts. A year ago, he spent a good deal of time dealing with injuries, and worrying about other mental roadblocks such as playing out of position. Those remain obstacles that ideally would not be in his way during the season ahead.
     
    There's merit to the argument that Minnesota's former top prospect may not be cut out to play the field. With a DH body, and maybe lacking the motivation to be great in the field, that transition may come sooner rather than later. Right now though, it doesn't seem to be something the Twins want to pigeon hole their youngster into, and it happens for players at all different ages. It's my guess that Minnesota would prefer Sano be more Edwin Encarnacion (who still significantly plays the field) as opposed to a David Ortiz type (who really never did) given the landscape of the current roster.
     
    In his first 80 big league games, Sano was trending towards a 4.0+ fWAR player over the course of a season. Unfortunately in 2016, he accounted for just 1.3 fWAR and was only on a 1.8 fWAR per 162 pace. Now with an offseason to get right, and coming into spring training with a defensive home, I think 2017 represents the best yet of Sano. I'm not sold on his mental makeup yet, and he needs to buy into wanting the most of of himself if he's going to be elite, but greatness is already in his sights.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed closer Kenley Jansen to an $80 million contract. The New York Yankees inked closer Aroldis Chapman to an $86 million deal. Late inning super-reliever Andrew Miller was the Cleveland Indians star of the Postseason, and Wade David held that title as the Royals closer a year prior. Back end relief pitching has become the new phenomenon, but the Minnesota Twins will ignore the trend in 2017.
     
    Glen Perkins was a 1st round pick by the Twins in 2004 out of the University of Minnesota. He was a local kid out of Stillwater, and has the "one of us" narrative going as he still currently resides in Lakevill. After flaming out as a starter, Perkins picked up his first save for the Twins during the 2011 season. Since then, he's gone on to save 120 games, good enough for third all time in franchise history.
     
    From 2013-2015, Perkins was among the best and most underrated closers in the game of baseball. He made three straight All Star games, saved 30+ games per year, and owned a combined ERA of 3.08. Since moving to the closer role full time, Perkins owns a 9.9 K/9 with a very solid 1.9 BB/9. No matter which numbers you look at, Perkins has had everything going in his favor. In the middle of the 2014 season, Perkins may have been Minnesota's best trade chip in quite some time. Unfortunately, all of this now looks like a distant memory.
     
    Following the All Star Break in 2015, Perkins went on to save just four games, blow three, and post a 7.32 ERA while allowing a 1.068 OPS. After being shut down to end the year, he came back in 2016 to pitch just two innings posting a 9.00 ERA all before undergoing surgery to reattach his labrum to the bone. The injury helps to explain the deterioration of his ability, but it also highlights the volatility of expecting him to return to anything close to what he once was.
     
    Prior to the 2017 season, Perkins will be 34 years old. It sure doesn't look like he'll be ready for Opening Day, and what he can provide the Twins beyond that remains a major question mark. Sitting at 95 mph in 2013, Perkins' fastball velocity has dipped every year until bottoming out at 91 mph a season ago. His out pitch has been a very strong sweeping slider, and that too had seen a decrease of two miles per hour over the past three seasons.
     
    Digging deeper, the numbers continue to mount against the Minnesota native. Perkins has slipped over two percent since 2013 when it comes to generating swinging strikes, and he's giving up contact to hitters nearly 80% of the time (a 5% jump from 2013). Even without an injury to throw a wrench into things, Perkins would have been far from a given in late game situations going into the upcoming season.
     
    Last year, Paul Molitor was forced to call upon veteran journeyman Brandon Kintzler to save games for the big league club. He recorded his first save (and then 16 more) of his big league career, and first since 2012 at Double-A for the Brewers. Filling in admirably, Kintzler helped the Twins limp to the finish line during a franchise worst 103 loss campaign. He posted a 3.40 ERA as the club's closer and allowed a .684 OPS to opposing hitters. To say Kintzler got the job done is fair, to count on him going forward is shaky at best.
     
    Kintzler was a non-roster invitee by former Twins General Manager Terry Ryan. He looked like a decent enough pick up to bolster a bad Minnesota bullpen. Forcing a guy generating 5.8 K/9 into a late inning closer role though isn't a good bet. Working in his favor is that Kintzler walks no one, just 1.3 per nine in 2016 to be exact. Regardless, if you're filling out a bullpen, neither your club nor Kintzler himself should see an ideal fit in the closer role.
     
    That brings the Twins to a crossroads. There's really no in house option short of running bullpen coach Eddie Guardado back out to the mound. J.T. Chargois may eventually assume that role, and prospect Nick Burdi was trending that way before losing his 2016 completely to different injuries. Ryan Pressly may have some late inning appeal, and Tyler Duffey operated as a closer in college for Rice University. No matter who's name you suggest however, the reality is that they're nothing better than a dart throw.
     
    What could be best for the Twins is to go with an all out belief that you should always be using your best relievers when the game is on the line. We saw this past Postseason how Joe Maddon and Terry Francona would go to Chapman and Miller when they needed outs most. While Miller wasn't the Indians closer, both have plenty of saves under their belts. Paul Molitor could decide to use the hot hand, and call upon the guy he believes best gives him the opportunity to generate outs when he needs them. Naming a closer among a group void of a real fit could place unnecessary pressure on someone.
     
    I'd wager that Kintzler will be given the first crack at the 9th inning to open 2017. It'd be great if he stuck, but far from unexpected if it doesn't happen. Minnesota shouldn't be knocking down the door to the playoffs this season, so opportunity should be present for anyone who wants to grab the reins and run with them. Maybe Perkins will defy the odds and give Minnesota another year; maybe he positions himself to be a trade asset at the break. Right now though, it doesn't appear counting on Glen is a good bet, and there's not anyone else that looks like an immediate answer either.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    Paul Molitor compiled over 3,000 hits and played in over 2,600 games in his career. He was enshrined in the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown, New York. Paul Molitor the player accomplished about as much as humanly possible of the baseball field, the managerial version has been less successful however.
     
    Now with a new front office regime in Minnesota, Paul Molitor will be proving his worth to an entirely different crowd. The argument can definitely be made that the Twins manager should've been fired ending the 2016 season. His club lost a franchise worst 103 games, he looked inept at times during critical in game situations, and his reliability to the franchise's lifeblood, its youth, seemed lacking. While there was the successful 2015 campaign before it, 2016 did no favors to Paul Molitor's managerial credibility.
     
    While Jim Pohlad did make the decision to begrudgingly dismiss General Manager Terry Ryan, he mandated that whoever come into the role be tied to Molitor for the 2017 season. It was a decision seen as something of a detractor to an otherwise attractive role. However, Minnesota landed their men, and now must move forward into the year that lies ahead.
     
    As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine enter, the Twins now have a front office duo that combined are nearly the junior to Ryan's age. They bring a new line of thinking with them, and appear more inclined to welcome all possible avenues for growth and advancement within the franchise. On top of what they are on their own, neither men has any more tie to the former Twins (and Brewers) great than the relationship they are developing in the moment. With nothing to hang his future hat on, Molitor must know his time is now.
     
    Given that the Twins will find themselves at somewhat of a crossroads in 2017, Molitor's management will come into the spotlight early and often. The club was awful a season ago due in large part to pitching that was simply not big league quality. Bouncing back to somewhere even slightly below average should give this club a decent shot at chasing a .500 record. The little things over the course of the season, and on a game-by-game basis, will determine how realistic it is that they reach or surpass that mark.
     
    Without immediate notes to point to, recalling late game bunting scenarios, bullpen management, pinch hitting decision, and arguably the most egregious, lineup construction, highlight the areas in which Paul Molitor continually fell short. Having a team void of the superstar big league, Molitor will need to become a manager that does more with less, and further positions his team to achieve past their potential. It will be on both Falvey and Levine to decide whether or not Paul accomplishes that feat.
     
    In 2017, Molitor will have more help around him. Going outside of the organization, the Twins have a hitting coach in James Rowson that can be no worse than the dated ideals of Tom Brunansky's "drive-the-ball-into-the-ground" style, and his over emphasis on changing hitters to all fit a similar mold. They also have brought in Jeff Pickler from the Dodgers organization, with the sole purpose being a liaison between baseball between the lines, and the game played on a piece of paper. Before anything even gets started, Molitor should find himself better positioned than he was to start the 2016 season.
     
    Given no assurances, and with nothing to hang his hat on, it could be a while before Molitor finds another opportunity should this one come up empty. Molitor has long been groomed within the Twins organization, and beat out another internal candidate in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz. He'll now need to exceed the expectations of an external duo and generate a list of accomplishments that tie directly to what he has provided from the dugout's top step.
     
    There's really no reason to bet against Molitor in 2017. The Twins will enter with low expectations, and pieces in place to surpass them. It's in the club's best interest to establish continuity during their rebuild, and Molitor can make a case to be at the heart of it all. If he's going to do so however, he'll need to get the buy in from his young players, and turn them into the stars Twins Territory has heard about for years. It's an uphill battle for the Minnesota native, but Paul Molitor absolutely appears to be fighting for his managerial career in 2017.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    August 14, 2016 was the last time Trevor May started a game for the Minnesota Twins. He lasted just three innings giving up two runs on five hits. Since that game against the Cleveland Indians, May has worked solely as a reliever for Minnesota. Now with his status for 2017 up in the air, it appears a return to the rotation could be in the cards.
     
    Acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Ben Revere, May was always the headliner of the deal that also included Vance Worley. He was expected to be an impact rotation arm, and while not an ace, was someone that surely should compete for many years. Now 27 years old, he's made just 25 big league starts and pitched a total of 203 innings across three seasons.
     
    In 2016, Paul Molitor used May in high leverage situations and at the end of games until the wheels fell off. He posted a 5.27 ERA which was inflated due to poor defense as evidenced by his 3.80 FIP. Command was an issue for Trevor last season as he issued 3.6 walks per nine innings, but his strikeouts saw a big jump as he posted 12.7 per nine. In his first season as a full time reliever, there were glimpses of a really good pen arm. Unfortunately, he also experienced back issues that were likely tied to usage, and will undoubtedly factor into any decisions made for 2017.
     
    So, now having been a starter and a reliever with a decent body of work to look back upon, can May really be counted on to give the Twins anything of substance? I've always been a bit torn as to whether or not I believe in him out of the rotation, but given the health concerns, I think it's the only way you get production out of him at all.
     
    Working solely as a starter in 2014, May watched his fastball velocity sit right under 92 mph. As a reliever for the bulk of the past two seasons, he saw an uptick to nearly 94 mph in 2016. Also in 2016, May pushed his swinging strike rate up to 13.2%. Working out of the pen plays into both of those jumps, but it also could've provided a new perspective for him.
     
    If May is going to be effective as a starter, he'll need to keep a focus on the things that worked for him out of the pen. Understandably the velocity will dial back down a bit as he looks to pitch deeper into games. However, he was allowing a career best 72.3% contact rate in 2016, and missing bats is something the Twins desperately need from their starters. If he can stay ahead in counts, and give up less of the med/hard contact (86.1%) he allowed a season ago, there's reason to believe he'll be a better version of the starter he once was.
     
    Expecting May to be a savior for the Minnesota rotation isn't a good bet at all, but there's plenty of room for him to contribute. With the need for a quality arm or two on the back end of the group, you could do a lot worse than Trevor May. He's not a soft-tosser, and with some expected upside still in his favor, Paul Molitor should be pushing to get the best version of the one-time top prospect.
     
    For a team that needs rotation help, May provides an internal option. I'd heavily shy away from him working out of the pen if you want him to stay healthy, and while he's not a slam dunk starting option, I believe he's one the Twins should welcome.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    A year after having the worst starting pitching staff in the big leagues, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to turn a significant corner in 2017. Paul Molitor has a pretty realistic opportunity to bounce back greatly in the wins column, but it's only going to happen if he can get productive outings from his starters.
     
    While the Twins haven't had a true ace since the days of Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana, there are plenty of teams the operate with a good group rather than a top heavy individual. The Twins will be taking the latter path this year as they fill out their rotation, but the question becomes exactly who rounds it out.
     
    Going into the year, I count at least 10 pitchers that Minnesota could task with starting a game. After using 11 different starters last season, I opined that the Twins would run out no more than 8 in 2017. Counting Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, and Kyle Gibson as rotation locks, the club will need to make decisions on the final two spots. That brings us to the candidates and the order of their likeliness:
     
    Phil Hughes
     
    In Hughes, the Twins have an odd scenario. He's absolutely a lock if he's healthy, but coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery doesn't guarantee that. Guys have bounced back differently, and he could be a shell of himself, or not pitch again at all. Hughes has faded every year since finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting during his first year with the Twins. If he does come back, hoping he lands somewhere just north of his 3.90 ERA across 2014-15 would make Minnesota ecstatic.
     
    Trevor May
     
    I'm much more skeptical than some on whether or not May finds success as a starter. Working as a reliever, he saw a nice spike in both his velocity and strikeout rates. Unfortunately, his back flared up and is likely tied to usage concerns. He hasn't consistently started since his debut season in 2014, and the results weren't good. Now more developed as a professional, the Twins will have to hope he can give them the strikeouts, with better command, and stay healthy.
     
    Jose Berrios
     
    After doing himself few favors last season, Berrios is going to be in a scenario in which he has to earn his spot during Spring Training. If Hughes isn't ready from the get go, I'd bet Berrios is the next man up. Command was the issue during Jose's rookie season, and his flat plane fastball got hit over the fence far too often (12 HR in 58.1 IP). The Twins will need to rely upon the year providing valuable experience, and the dominating stuff from Triple-A playing up a bit more at the highest level.
     
    Adalberto Mejia
     
    Acquired in exchange for Eduardo Nunez last season, Mejia was a nice get for the Twins system. He doesn't have flashy stuff, but should be capable of a back end spot in the rotation. In four starts for Triple-A Rochester, he totaled a 3.76 ERA to go with an 8.5 K/9. At the big league level he surrendered two earned runs across just 2.1 IP as a reliever. Mejia should get a serious look in Spring Training, and he's maybe the safer option if Minnesota wants to make absolutely sure that Berrios is ready.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves
     
    Now we get to the bit of the stretch portion for Opening Day rotation options. Gonsalves is the Twins top pitching prospect by most accounts, and he should be expected to be a solid contributor. However, he's yet to pitch above Double-A. While Gonsalves owned a 2.06 ERA last year, his 10.0 K/9 was watered down a bit by a 3.7 BB/9. He has some command issues to work through, and will need to rely on pitching at the higher levels as opposed to just throwing. I'd expect him to make his MLB debut this season, but not out of the gate.
     
    Tyler Duffey
     
    After starting 36 games for the Twins over his first two big league seasons, it's time Duffey heads to the bullpen. A college closer at Rice, Minnesota went the most sensible route in attempting to convert him to a starter first. Now 26 and without a dominant trio of offerings, he can be a very good two pitch reliever. His curveball is filthy when it's on, and he'll be more than capable of getting big leaguers out. Send him to the pen, decrease the homers (25 in 25 starts during 2016) and enjoy the uptick in velocity and strikeouts.
     
    Justin Haley
     
    Included here because Haley has worked as a starter for the entirety of his minor league career, and likely is slotted there in the Twins future, he should only see pen time this season. Haley did pitch at Triple-A during 2016 and fared well posting a 3.59 ERA. He has been categorized as among the safest Rule 5 picks, and many have said he's major league ready to back-end a rotation. Given what's ahead of him though, I'd welcome his opportunities in 2017 to come in a long relief role.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    As the offseason rolls on for the Minnesota Twins, easily the biggest storyline thus far has been the potential trade of Brian Dozier. I believe it's a move they must make, and more a matter of when as opposed to if. In a potential Dozier transaction though, the Twins will be faced with an interesting decision. Do they trust the next man up?
     
    In the particular scenario of second base, the next man up would be Jorge Polanco, who played out of position at shortstop a season ago. The reality for a rebuilding team with young pieces though, is which ones are actually difference makers going forward. It's not just Polanco that the new braintrust has to decide upon, but actually a few fringe types that are worth wondering about.
     
    Giving each of them some individual analysis, here's my thoughts on how some of the Twins positional youth factors into their long term plans.
     
    Jorge Polanco
     
    The aforementioned Polanco is an immediate replacement for Brian Dozier at second. He's not the power hitter that Dozier has become, but he's also not a dead pull bat and can spray the ball to all fields. He profiles as a more typical top two hitter, and has the ability to generate extra base hits with his speed. In a 69 G sample size during 2016, Polanco split balls put in play between grounders, liners, and fly balls, to the tune of roughly one-third each. He swung out of the zone far too often (also one-third), but had a respectable 84% contact rate. An abysmal shortstop, he's just fine at second base. The bat has always carried belief, and the total package should be one the Twins feel good about.
     
    Kennys Vargas
     
    It's actually interesting that Vargas was granted another option year for 2017. Had he not been, he's someone I would have totally been ok with the Twins DFA'ing with the potential that he's lost on waivers. Try to get out from the fact that he has a similar stature to David Ortiz, and accept that he may just be a guy. Now with roughly a full season worth of big league action split between three years, Vargas has shown an inability to take walks (aside from his impressive showing down the 2016 stretch). He makes contact just north of 70% of the time, and you'd definitely like to see more of his fly balls leave the yard. Vargas carries an average first base glove at best, and I'm not sure you couldn't find another DH type with more upside.
     
    Eddie Rosario
     
    Admittedly I was all in on getting Eddie Rosario to the big leagues prior to the 2015 season. He looked like a difference maker, and actually proved to be as much picking up Rookie of the Year votes. What his league leading 15 triples and impressive 16 outfield assists in 2015 masked were some bigger issues however. As the triples faded, the OPS and SLG tumbled. Rosario tries to be a bad ball hitter, chasing more than 40% of the time, but he also has gotten worse with his swing and its tendencies (up over 15% in 2016). In the outfield, he went from an 11 DRS mark in 2015 to a 2 DRS mark a year ago. At times, you wonder whether or not it's an effort thing, but Rosario's approach also may be too much to overcome. Right now, he fits for the Twins, but I'd be all in on another option or packaging him in a trade.
     
    Danny Santana
     
    There's maybe nothing more for Danny Santana to be able to hang his big league hat on than his rookie year. An incredibly unsustainable .405 BABIP led to an inflated .319 AVG. In the two seasons since, Santana has gone on to slash an ugly .227/.259/.308. He doesn't have much of a defensive ability, and at the plate he has become little more than a man with a bat. If he's going to play outfield, I think I'd give Zach Granite a look instead. If you want him as an infielder, Engelb Vielma could possibly be the choice. Santana is out of options, and it seems inevitable he's DFA'd at some point. What started off great never looked real, but it's also unfortunate it fell this far apart as well.
     
    John Ryan Murphy
     
    Maybe an odd inclusion for this list, Murphy gets a look being only 25 years old. While he didn't come through the Twins system, there was some belief from the old regime in swapping Aaron Hicks for him. Having played 67 games for the Yankees in 2015 with an OPS of .734, it appeared he may have a solid hit tool for the Twins. As things went last year, Murphy played in just 26 big league games, was passed over for Juan Centeno, and owned just a .609 OPS in 83 Triple-A games. He's decent in working the running game, and an ok receiver, but he doesn't do anything incredibly well. At this point, having Murphy and Mitch Garver battle for backup duties out of the gate seems like a good plan of action. With Jason Castro around for the next three seasons, Murphy won't see real work anytime soon. That said, it's pretty realistic that he could slide behind the Twins internally developed Garver as well.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have not had a ton of needs to address this offseason. While the 2016 season produced the worst record in major league history, it was indicative of the worst pitching staff in the big leagues. With more reason to rely on internal options, addressing deficiencies through a poor free agent market never seemed like a good bet. If there was something to be addressed though, it was Brian Dozier.
     
    Coming off the best season of his career, the first as an All Star, and having totaled over 40 homers for the first (and potentially only) time, Minnesota finds themselves at a crossroads. Sure, there's little room to argue that the Twins lineup isn't better with Dozier in it, but in getting back to being a playoff contender, does Dozier realistically fit in the picture?
     
    It's been clear for quite some time that Minnesota was going to be forced into a decision. Jorge Polanco is an up and coming prospect that can realistically only help the Twins at second base. Dozier wasn't extended into his free agent years, will undoubtedly never be better, and is playing for a Twins squad that isn't exactly close to contending. So, does Minnesota need to trade him at all costs?
     
    The short answer is yes, but the longer answer is yes with some caveats.
     
    Thus far, the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the likely landing spot. That has been expected since the talks of a trade were initially thought probable. Los Angeles needs just another piece or two for a World Series run, and second base remains a large hole for them. With the club now open to trading their top pitching prospect Jose De Leon, Minnesota is simply jostling with who joins him on the flight to the Twin Cities.
     
    As expected, the Dozier are reluctant to trade first base prospect Cody Bellinger. He's near big league ready, looks like the real deal, and should seamlessly take over for Adrian Gonzalez. Expecting the Dodgers to deal Yadier Alvarez, whom they invested over $30 million in signing him out of Cuba, never seemed like a good bet. Asking for 2016 draft pick Walker Bueller didn't seem to be a realistic bet either. Nonetheless, Minnesota has inquired on all three and reportedly been turned down.
     
    That brings up to the "trade Dozier at all costs" crossroads. Right now, the Twins have followed the best possible path in dealing their star. They made sure to guarantee that the centerpiece of any deal is included, and they've aimed as high as possible for any secondary players. Now it's time to pull the trigger and take what else you can get.
     
    De Leon quite possibly helps the Twins more long term than does Dozier. Getting another prospect such as Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun in addition is something Minnesota should feel content with. While they may not see the immediate impact that another year of Dozier may provide, understanding that any step backwards would squash the ability to move him at any time. Right now it's about asking for the stars (they have) and settling for everything you can get (they need to).
     
    With how much smoke there has been this offseason in regards to Dozier moving from Minnesota to Los Angeles, you'd be hard pressed to suggest anything less than a 90 percent chance a deal is consummated. It's taking a bit longer than I imagined, but the process the Twins have followed thus far has been the right one. At this point, it's time to back off the highest ask, take what you can get, and close the chapter on a deal that should benefit both sides.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    I have long been a supporter of guys linked to performance enhancing drugs being in the Hall of Fame. Simply put, if you don't believe that players like Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens are among the best to ever play the sport of baseball, you're unquestionably wrong. Here's where the caveats come in though, morality still plays a role that it has no business playing.
     
    Today I read over a piece by BBWAA member and former Yankees beat writer Wallace Matthews. In it, he calls out Curt Schilling for being a baffon (political stance aside, he absolutely is), and huffs over the burden it is to cast a Hall of Fame ballot. While it's fair and understanding to note where he's coming from, the true burden is one that was cast upon him by the Baseball Hall of Fame itself.
     
    Almost as equally long as I have contended that guys linked to PEDs but still deserving should be in The Hall, I've stated that the character clause is one of the goofiest prerequisites for inclusion at Cooperstown. Listen, the Baseball Writers Association of America should be asking journalists to quantify performance factors, not policing the shortcomings of the Commissioner and Major League Baseball itself. At the end of the day, inclusion in the Hall of Fame should be related to the amount of homers you smashed, strikeouts you tallied, or accolades you compiled while on the field of play.
     
    When participating in Major League Baseball, players have gone through eras with live and dead balls. They have played the sport while certain races were excluded. Long before PEDs were the drugs of hatred, there were amphetamines and other choice vices that were explored. As a collective whole, the reality has always been that asking a group removed from decision making efforts within the sport, to retroactively rule on decisions that were made, was a losing battle.
     
    Looking at Matthews' piece and knowing he isn't the first one to publicly defend his decision to throw away his vote, it's hard not to want something done about the burden he defines. At it's core, it seems quite haughty to come across as being above a privilege granted to so few. While The Hall has imposed the notion that morality be considered, the process involves nothing more than checking boxes of up to 10 players deserving of the game's highest honor.
     
    While trying to be sympathetic to the tone of Matthews' message, it's also a tired one from a group that has so often fallen short of being worthy of give the benefit of doubt. I'm not sorry your journalistic profession has included you among a group of your peers that are tasked with helping us to celebrate baseball's greatest. I'm not sorry that the BBWAA as a whole has seen countless votes cast (or not cast) as personal vendettas or in trying to politic against those that wronged them while playing (or not playing) the game. I'm not sorry that it seems silly to cast votes for those you feel friendly towards, and want to give a final hat tip to. I'm really not sorry for any "burden" you'd like to define as part of the voting process.
     
    If there's something to be sorry for, it is, and always has been, Cooperstown asking you to play morality cop. Most anyone that has ever watched the game can effectively evaluate the performance of a player's career, and a consensus (or at least a 75% consensus) should be relatively straightforward to reach in that line of thinking alone. It's time that morality stop playing such an issue in the voting process, both on the ballot, and in the fallout thereafter.
     
    There have been positive changes from the BBWAA in recent years (removing writers no longer covering the game, accepting MLB.com writers, making ballots publicly available), but the large linchpin remains the character clause. It's time the ballot was simply used as a process of deeming who is worthy based on baseball merit alone, and celebrating that. Allowing writers to do this look-at-me thing while not voting or channeling feelings into their ballots should cease. Really though, it's the BBWAA and The Hall itself who continue to facilitate it all.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Last December, I put together a piece looking at certain statistics and numbers that the Minnesota Twins may find themselves teetering on in the year ahead. Dubber over/unders, I took a look at a few areas to watch and tried to decipher whether or not Paul Molitor's team would surpass or fall short of the mark. If you want to read that piece, you can find it here.
     
    The 2017 season presents plenty of new storylines, and while the team wants to wipe clean the slate after a 100+ loss season, it will take some bounce back performances to do so. Last year I went with six over/under predictions and hit on just one of them. Attempting to go out on a limb with the categories rather than to play it safe tends to turn the tide that way, but nonetheless, let's hope for a better effort with the 2017 offering.
    With the groundwork laid, let's get into it.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves over/under 6 MLB starts:
     
    Last season, Jose Berrios was in this category, and the number he needed to reach was 20. I took the over and he came in with just 14. Berrios struggled and went back and forth between Rochester and Minnesota quite often. For Gonsalves, I think the bouncing around will be less, but so should the opportunity. Yes, Gonsalves is currently the Twins best pitching prospect, but he's not of the same tier that Berrios was. After last season, Gonsalves had pitched just 13 games at the Double-A level. His 2016 sparkled with a 2.06 ERA to go with a 10.0 K/9. The downside for Gonsalves is that he doesn't have any overpowering big league pitches, and he's still struggled some with command (walking 3.7 per nine at A/AA in 2016). I believe he's going to be a solid mid to back end starter for the Twins, but believe his opportunities come closer to September. I suggested he'll debut in July, but think he sticks at the end of the year.
     
    Prediction: Under
     
    Players to hit at least 27 home runs over/under one:
     
    Operating under the belief that Brian Dozier is not going to play for Minnesota in 2017 takes away a player that hit 42 longballs (43 technically) a season ago. That leaves the next closest slugger at 25, coming from Miguel Sano. I believe a season that doesn't have Sano jumping all over the field should see him play more games (116 in 2016) and reach the 30 HR plateau for the first time in his career. Among the guys that could join him at that number include Max Kepler and Byungho Park. I'm a Kepler fan, and I love his swing, but I think the power is more a by-product of execution than it is a concentrated effort. Park should be in line for a nice bounce back year, and a guy that hit 100 homers in Korea over the course of two seasons should be a good bet to start launching them in Minnesota.
     
    Prediction: Over
     
    Twins will run out over/under 9 starters in 2017:
     
    A year ago, the Twins had the worst pitching staff in the big leagues. They had no one that could offer consistent innings, no one that could keep them in games, and no one that could strike any batters out. By all measures, it was a disaster. What made it worse was that production and injuries caused them to allow 11 different players to make a start. In the year ahead, Paul Molitor will have plenty of options at his disposal, but I think the number that actually start will be considerably less. Sure, Trevor May, Adalberto Mejia, Tyler Duffey, and a couple others should all compete for rotation ending starts, but I'd hope Minnesota doesn't double up on the amount of arms required for a full turn again. I feel like a safe number here is that about eight different pitchers will start a game for the 2017 Twins.
     
    Prediction: Under
     
    Minnesota will win over/under 77 games:
     
    After going 59-103 in 2016, 77 wins would be an 18 game improvement for the Twins. While that number seems like a significant amount, internal adjustments alone should help to make up for a large amount. Minnesota shouldn't expect to be the worst pitching team in the big leagues for a second year in a row, and the offense can be expected to carry a bigger load over the entirety of the year than it did a season ago. Even a small improvement on the pitching front should help the Twins, as the offense is relatively sound when things are status quo. Combine those factors with the White Sox going for an all out prospect team, the Royals trading away pieces, and the Tigers again, and you find yourself with a Twins team that benefits from the step back taken by division competitors. The Indians will be good, and they'll be at the top of the Central, but the Twins actually played them quite well a season ago. This group isn't going to make the Postseason, but they shouldn't expect a second straight number one overall pick.
     
    Prediction: Over
     
    Glen Perkins will record over/under 10 saves for Twins in 2017:
     
    Pitching just two innings a year ago, Perkins succumbed to surgery on his shoulder. His effectiveness has been trending downhill for quite some time, but finally getting the issue addressed could help to turn the corner. Once among the American League's most underappreciated closers, Perkins will need to reclaim his role with the Twins. I don't have much belief that he's ready by Opening Day, and labrum surgery as intense as his sounded doesn't bode well for him to regain his past greatness. If the Twins can get any sort of return to former prominence out of Perkins I'd be thrilled, and look to flip him at the first opportunity. More realistically though, I think we've seen the beginning of the end, and he'll be relegated to lower leverage situations in a best case scenario.
     
    Prediction: Under
     
    Byron Buxton finishes over/under 10th best in MLB by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) measures:
     
    During the 2016 season, Byron Buxton played 92 games (88 starts) in the outfield for the Minnesota Twins. He was worth just three defensive runs saved, and elevated his career total to just 7 DRS over the past two years. It's a by-product of his offensive ineffectiveness, inability to stay healthy, and some rust in the outfield. When things are clicking, it's absolutely fair to expect a Kevin Kiermaier level of defense from Buxton, and he's more than capable of deservedly taking home a Gold Glove. The threshold for the top 10 in DRS a season ago was 15 DRS. Among the top 10 in DRS were Mookie Betts (32), Kiermaier (25), Kevin Pillar (21), Colby Rasmus (20), Adam Eaton (20), Jarrod Dyson (19), Jason Heyward (18), Jake Marisnick (18), Starling Marte (17), and Ender Inciarte (15). Buxton's arm is a true asset, and his speed is easy to categorize as a weapon. If he can stay healthy (a must), and contribute at the plate (hopeful), he shoudl have ample opportunity to be among the best five outfielders in MLB.
     
    Prediction: Over
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Los Angeles Dodgers now having inked both Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen to free agent deals, they could slow on spending this offseason. They also brought back Rich Hill, and have effectively kept their 2016 roster in tact. That group didn't win a World Series though, so adding a piece or two seems like the next logical step.
     
    The Dodgers have a need in the form of a setup man ahead of Jansen, and arguably more pressing than that, at second base in the infield. For what seems like the longest time, the Dodgers and Minnesota Twins have been doing a dance around All Star Brian Dozier. Now it sounds like they'll turn their focus to that trade, and Howard Cole believes it'll get done.
     
    I spoke with the Forbes writer and IBWAA Founding Director via email in regards to the Dodgers and Dozier. With a few questions sent his way, here's the answers I got back:
     
    Off The Baggy: Now that the Dodgers have handled their free agent deals in the form of Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Turner, it would seem reasonable that turning to other needs would be a good bet. Brian Dozier fills a 2B hole for LA. What are the odds you see a deal getting done, and what reasonable expectations do you see for him in 2017?
     
    Howard Cole: The Dodgers have held on to their prospects for a deal just like this, and I think they'll get it done. It's a great match for both clubs. Obviously, L.A. would love for Dozier to pick up where he left off the second half of 2016, but they'll be happy with a solid second baseman who plays 155 games a year and hits for power from the right side, both of which are things they desperately need. They'll take an OPS of only .800 gratefully.
     
    OTB: After going with aging veteran Chase Utley a year ago, Dozier would represent a player with a bit of control and arguably in his prime. Do you see him as a player the Dodgers are looking at as just an immediate addition, or someone they expect to help beyond his deal in 2018?
     
    HC: The Dodgers are looking to win now and in the future, but the two years remaining on Dozier's contract is perfect. They'll worry about a second baseman for 2019 later.
     
    OTB: While Brian Dozier represents the best the Minnesota Twins have to offer, it's realistic to assume they won't be winning while he's on the roster. In dealing him away, they could target just prospects, or blend in some big league ready options too. What do you see the Dodgers being willing to give up?
     
    HC: Power guy Willie Calhoun probably goes in this one. He's an offense-first player who's already listed as a "Second Baseman and Designated Hitter" on Baseball-Reference.com. I imagine the Twins will ask for Jose De Leon and they might just get him. Brock Stewart could work as well, but it really depends on what the ask is. The Dodgers have a ton of good pitching prospects to choose from.
     
    OTB: Obviously the Dodgers farm system is loaded with prospects due to some solid moves over the past year or so. If there was a prospect you just really don't want to see Los Angeles give up because he may turn into a real star, who is that for you?
     
    HC: Cody Bellinger. He'll follow Adrian Gonzalez as a two-way star at first base no later than 2019, and contribute in the outfield as early as midseason next year. I'm excluding Julio Urias, of course, because he's no longer a prospect; he's a mainstay in the rotation.
     
    OTB: I've contended that Jansen, Turner, and Hill being resigned wasn't the Dodgers elevating themselves as they were simply making sure to keep their 2016 club in tact. Adding Dozier, is he enough of a piece to feel good about advancing further in the Postseason or win a World Series?
     
    HC: Don't forget they'll have newly re-signed Rich Hill for the entire season in 2017 too, after getting just 47 innings, including the postseason, out of him in 2016. They'll have Andre Ethier back in a platoon role next year too, in addition to their late find, Andrew Toles, and if healthy, Trayce Thompson. So no black hole in left field for another season. But yeah, Dozier would make a huge difference. Huge.
     
    It sure seems like the two sides are in a collision course to a resolution. We could see that happen in short order.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Last winter, I tried my hand at projecting the upcoming lineup right around this same timeframe. With Paul Molitor back as manager of the Minnesota Twins for 2017, much of the same can be expected lineup wise, but he'll need to make some adjustments if he's going to overcome his own deficiencies from a season ago. There's no doubt that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to turn this thing around, but it'll be a process.
     
    Right now, we know that the Twins have lost a couple of pieces from 2016, and there could be a few more changes along the way. I wouldn't expect them to make many waves in terms of offensive additions, so now seems as good of a time as any to set the lineup. With that out of the way, let's get into it.
     
    1. Joe Mauer 1B
     
    The unfortunate reality with Mauer is that his defense is Gold Glove caliber but the bat and offensive production is just a shell of what it once was. Recently I touched on the blueprint to get the best out of Mauer. Play him sparingly, split time with Park and Kennys Vargas, and even look at platooning him to remove some at bats against lefties. If Molitor can wrap his head around Mauer being what he is, rather than what he wants him to be, the Twins will be better for it. He's not going to bat .300, but hitting .280 using a similarly structured plan seems like a good bet. If you're not going to bat him leadoff, hitting him sixth or seventh makes a lot of sense.
     
    2. Brian Dozier 2B
     
    There's really no reason to be disappointed about being able to keep your best player. In not dealing Dozier, the Twins did just that this offseason. He's not going to hit 40 homers again in 2017, but settling in somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 season is a realistic ask. He should be a 3.0+ fWAR player, and will once again drive the Twins. He can allow Mauer's on base skills to add to his RBI total as well.
     
    3. Max Kepler RF
     
    At points during the 2016 campaign, it appeared that Max Kepler might run away with the Rookie of the Year award. In 31 games from the middle of July through the middle of August, Kepler posted a .912 OPS and cracked seven homers. His smooth swing and quick trigger through the zone should continue to allow him the ability to succeed at the plate. There may be less highs and lows for Kepler in 2017, but a year of consistency would be more than welcomed. He's got a realistic shot at 20 longballs this year and can be among the Twins best hitters.
     
    4. Miguel Sano 3B
     
    With the Twins non-tendering Trevor Plouffe, it's become time that Sano slots in as the full time third basemen. Realistically, he isn't a great fit there as the accuracy issues with his arm remain a real concern. Until things sort themselves out though, a move to full time DH or first base just doesn't appear in the cards. After a strong rookie year, Sano took steps backwards in 2016. The hope should be that his OPS rests somewhere in the mid .800 range and he can push towards 30 homers. Having played just 116 games a season ago, remaining in shape and healthy will be contributing factors towards Minnesota getting the most out of their young slugger.
     
    5. Byungho Park DH
     
    Brought over from the KBO as one of the best players that league has ever seen, Park's rookie year in the big leagues didn't go well. The Twins got just 62 games from Park and he was sent to Triple-A for the remainder of the year. Posting just 21 walks with 80 strikeouts, the swing and miss issues were definitely there for the Korean slugger. I believe that the wrist injury that eventually required surgery was a bigger deal than he let on, and if healthy, a big bounce back in 2017 is very plausible. Wipe the slate clean and give me at least 20 bombs in 130 games for the Twins from Park in the year ahead.
     
    6. Byron Buxton CF
     
    A year ago I found myself making excuses to try and get by Buxton's disappointing debut season. While he's still young, his 92 games in 2016 weren't great either. What Buxton did do though was bolster expectations for 2017 with a strong finish to the season. From August 5 through the end of the year, Buxton had a 30 game sample size in which he posted a .992 OPS while slugging an incredible .641. He's not going to hit nine home runs in a month all too often, but betting against baseball's former top prospect isn't something I want to do. Let him start in the middle, with a move to the top of the lineup being a quick possibility.
     
    7. Jason Castro C
     
    Signed to a three year deal this offseason by the Twins, Castro is being brought in first and foremost for his defensive acumen. Despite posting just a .684 OPS with the Astros last season, it was his best mark since his .835 OPS All Star season in 2013. If he can trend towards a .700 OPS for Minnesota as a defense first backstop, Molitor will have to be happy. Castro has totaled double-digit homers each year since 2012, and getting some pop from the catching position is something the Twins will welcome. His floor shouldn't be too low, and Castro's ceiling is probably the best the Twins have seen at catcher since Joe Mauer.
     
    8. Eddie Rosario LF
     
    If there was someone that did themselves no favors in 2016 it was Rosario. Not only did he take steps backwards defensively, but his approach at the plate looked awful far too often. A free swinger that chases out of the zone, Rosario shaved nearly 30 points off of his OPS and again posted an ugly K/BB (91/12) ratio. He needs to be more patient at the dish and come up with a better plan. In the field, Minnesota needs the guy that was worth 10 DRS in 2015, not the one that was worth zero last season. This spot also gets interesting if the Twins do in fact pull off a Brian Dozier trade. If Yasiel Puig is a part of the return, Rosario could find himself as the odd man out.
     
    9. Jorge Polanco SS
     
    With Brian Dozier remaining a member of the Twins for the 2017 big league season, Polanco is destined to stay at shortstop. It's not an ideal spot for him defensively, but the Twins frankly don't have another option. His bat should help to alleviate some of the defensive gaffes, and expecting him to tote the lumber is a good bet.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    As the Minnesota Twins enter the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the focus will undoubtedly be on getting better pitching performances than those that saw the club post league worst numbers. It's fairly realistic to expect a rebound from an offense that was expected to carry the club, and we shouldn't be shocked if that happens. What Paul Molitor must do is utilize hometown hero Joe Mauer in the most sensible way possible.
     
    Once a surefire Hall of Famer, Mauer has watched his career be sapped due to the severe concussion he suffered years ago. He hasn't set foot behind the dish since the 2013 season and never will do so again. What he has done since is become an average hitter with an exceptional glove at first base. Unfortunately, the best version of Mauer is the one that doesn't play as often.
     
    Going into the year, Minnesota has at least two other first base options in Byungho Park and Kennys Vargas. You could make the argument that Miguel Sano will need to transition that way at some point as well. Regardless of what the other options are, even a Gold Glove caliber defender in Mauer shouldn't be run out there anything close to every day.
    In 2016, Mauer was relegated to playing just 134 games, a significant step back from the 158 he played in during 2015. When catching, Mauer routinely played somewhere around 140 games a season. Now for a different reason, to stave off his decline, I'd be looking at utilizing him for something like 120 games in the year ahead.
     
    Through the first 25 games a season ago, Mauer slashed .337/.459/.461. For 23 games from May through June, he slashed .326/.402/.517; and for 19 games at the end of July into August he slashed .418/.513/.687. Cherry picking bits of production here really isn't the point, other than to show Mauer is still very capable of hot streaks. What his final .261/.363/.389 slash line tells us is that he's not capable of sustaining it over the course of a full year anymore.
     
    Getting regular rest generally seems to benefit Mauer. Rather the incorporating off days, Molitor seemed to continually turn to Joe a year ago. At points, it was as if Mauer would be run out then until he ran himself into the ground. On top of being over-utilized, Molitor asked Mauer to bat either 2nd or 3rd in 117 of the games he started. The reality is that he's just not that player anymore.
     
    In an ideal scenario, Mauer bats lower in the lineup, maybe the six hole makes sense. He also displayed some pretty drastic splits a season ago. Posting just a .610 OPS against left handed pitchers, he hit to the tune of a .793 OPS against righties. Platooning players isn't something the Twins have traditionally done, but with Mauer, it might be a really good opportunity.
     
    At the end of the day, Joe Mauer still holds value for the Minnesota Twins. There's no arguing that he's not the player he once was, but he's still a productive asset reliable for right around 1.0 fWAR. Getting the best out of him requires regular rest, lest lineup responsibility, and being put in more advantageous situations at the plate. There's a blueprint here, it's up to the Twins as to whether or not they want to use it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    With plenty of different happenings going on in baseball during this time of the year, it's hard to stick simply to one topic. The Winter Meetings are now in full swing, and the Minnesota Twins should be plenty busy fielding calls on trade asset Brian Dozier. For the purpose of this post though, there's two notes I wanted to expand upon.
     
    The first is in the way in which Official Baseball Writers Association of America members handle their Hall of Fame votes. Recently former Commissioner Bud Selig was inducted into the Hall of Fame. Susan Slusser, beat reporter for the Oakland Athletics, made this comment following the news, "Senseless to keep steroid guys out when the enablers are in Hall of Fame. I now will hold my nose and vote for players I believe cheated."
     
    I have been beating this drum for years, and am happy to hear more prominent voices start to get on board. The largest detractor for PED guys has always been the character clause. BBWAA voters hide behind voting for deserving players because the use of PEDs suggests flawed character, and inducting a cheater isn't something any of them seem to want on their hands. In putting Selig in The Hall however, they've just allowed the most egregious offender.
     
    Here's the thing, Bud Selig is the reason PEDs ran rampant in baseball. He allowed it for good reason, and players like Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire saved his sport post lockout. In the midst of it all happening, those players (and the commissioner) were celebrated. The era is what it was, and should be treated as such. It's nice to see Susan getting on board, and would be great to see more of her fellow voters do the same. This is the same contingent of people that reject change at every turn however, so let's not start to hold our breath.
     
    As an aside, here's more thoughts on PED users being voted into the Hall of Fame if you're interested.
     
    The second note I wanted to touch on is the decision by the Washington Nationals to non-tender Ben Revere. The former Minnesota Twins outfielder made $6.25 million in 2016 with the Nationals and was scheduled to get a small bump; having played just 103 games this year though, they saw him as an expendable asset. Now a free agent, this is where things get interesting.
     
    Revere hasn't played for the Twins since 2012 after which he was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May. Since then, he's played for three teams and compiled a .289/.320/.353 slash line. His speed remains his biggest asset, and he plays all three outfield spots. He makes a lot of sense for the Twins as there should be plenty of need for an extra outfielder among a young group.
     
    A season ago, Robbie Grossman was the Twins mid-season flier. In 99 games, he posted a .386 OBP and getting on base kept him in Minnesota's lineup. What was troubling however, was that Grossman posted a ridiculous -21 DRS as well as a -15.2 UZR. The defensive runs saved number was the third worst mark posted in the big leagues (and both Andrew McCutchen and J.D. Martinez played nearly twice as many innings), and dwarfed the likes of previous ugly defensive showings for the Twins such as Delmon Young.
     
    To be fair, Revere's defense isn't world-breaking either. He posted a 2 DRS in just over 700 outfield innings last season, but he's two years removed from a -16 effort with the Phillies. Likely best suited for left field at this point, he'd fit in nicely alongside Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. There isn't really a platoon play for Revere at all, but he could be interchanged with the likes of Eddie Rosario pretty seamlessly.
     
    I'd guess Revere will have no trouble finding a big league job, but if I was the Twins, I think I'd prefer him over Robbie Grossman. Even before Revere's availability, I wondered whether Minnesota had room for Grossman going forward.
     
    With the Winter Meetings ready to take the bulk of the news this week, we should have plenty of excitement to look forward to.
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    As Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association came to agreement on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Mid-Summer Classic hardly went ignored. Sure there was decisions made on an International Draft, Qualifying Offers, and the new Luxury Tax thresholds, but it was the All Star Game decision that caught the attention of the Associated Press late Wednesday night.
     
    With the new CBA, Major League Baseball decided intelligently that the exhibition game should no longer count. In the 14 seasons since making it matter, nine times the World Series winning team had home field advantage. Thankful to their opposition for the All Star victory, it was a meaningless game in July that determined, at least in part, over half of the last 14 World Series winners.
     
    Here's the thing with the All Star game though, it never should have counted. It shouldn't have counted in the results column, but it absolutely should count when it comes to representation. This summer, Twins fans were given their representative in the form of Eduardo Nunez. Sure, he had a very nice year in comparison to his career norms, but he hardly competed at an All Star level.
     
    With every team getting a representative, this is the kind of situations the league finds itself in at times. While it's not the fault of the player at all, it's a massive miss by the league. Surely, Twins fans didn't need Nunez to be included in the game to decide upon watching it; that was more than likely a separate decision made entirely on its own merit.
     
    As players convene for the All Star game in the middle of the summer, Major League Baseball's focus should be on one thing, marketability. The sport itself needs that stage to highlight the best young players the game has. Sure, you'll have your years where an Alex Rodriguez or Ichiro Suzuki type makes sense, but the bulk of the roster should be up and coming stars. Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, those are names that should be represented at every All Star Game for the next ten years.
     
    It's understandable why leagues incorporate fan voting into their All Star Game processes. At it's core, that's a level of marketability in giving the people who they want to see. In scenarios though where the entire Royals or Cubs roster is starting in an All Star Game, the league may be best served to step in. What do jersey sales look like? Are all of those top players represented? Is the brand a saturated result of baseball players as a whole, or is the game showcasing the best the sport has to offer?
     
    Recently Sony announced that MLB The Show 17 will feature Ken Griffey Jr. on the cover. I am a fan of the move and think it makes sense to do a historic cover as it coincides with his Hall of Fame induction, and Griffey has long been synonymous with baseball video games. However, I can definitely understand the miss that is the league failing to provide uber marketable players that just present no-brainer options in scenarios such as these.
     
    Thanks to the new CBA, the All Star Game will no longer count in terms of determining home field advantage. For a game that's gaining traction again across the country though, it counts at the highest level when it comes to providing a platform to market the most meaningful players in the sport.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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