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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    In any given year, there's some sort of an expectation as to how things should go before it gets off the ground. Despite coming off a franchise worst 103 losses in 2016, the 2017 Minnesota Twins were representative of a better team. They weren't expected to make the playoffs, but competing on a nightly basis was a fair ask. As the season wears on, your conclusion is often presented months in advance. At some point, it's wise to adjust how you finish.
     
    With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror, the Twins became sellers. Now, that term carries negative feelings, but Minnesota shipped away just two expiring assets. They dealt no one that would help them in the future, and the club got real assets in return. There's no other way to dissect it besides saying it was executed properly. Now into August though, the balance of the season takes on another form of importance.
     
    I recently opined on Twitter that if a non-playoff team isn't using August and September to set up the next season, they're doing it wrong. Your goal should always be to stay ahead of the competition. Right now, there's a handful of teams that are in the mix for the Postseason and ultimately the World Series. With Minnesota not being one of those, they should be setting forth plans for the year ahead.
     
    Given the opportunity to expand big league rosters in September, there's often the caveat that baseball becomes watered down in the final month. Teams are playing lesser players and giving their regulars time off. Entering 2018, Minnesota should be no worse than the second best team in the AL Central, and having an idea of who they can count on ahead of time sounds like a pretty good thing to bank on.
     
    With Jaime Garcia being shipped out at the deadline, Minnesota needed to replace a starting pitcher. Instead of going with a high ceiling prospect like Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero, the organization will call upon veteran retread Dillon Gee. There's nothing wrong with Gee pitching in big league games, he's a capable arm. What he doesn't do however, is tell you anything you don't know about the year ahead. Both Aaron Slegers and David Hurlbut at Triple-A will feel the 40 man roster crunch over the offseason, even they could provide more insight as to future positioning than Gee.
     
    For a club that's thrown nearly 15 different starting pitchers, and is on pace to set a new club record in terms of pitcher's used, it'd sure be great for them to go with guys that could have long term value. In 2018, hurlers like Colon and Gee will still exist, and can be had with the same expectations as they are presently capable of. Having to call on a top prospect, or even a lower tier guy, early on or out of spring training without seeing them at the highest level seems suboptimal.
     
    This same principal carries over to the other aspects of the game as well. There's no denying that Jorge Polanco has taken a significant step backwards in 2017. Despite being a bat first player his whole career, he's started solid defensively, and now how dipped well below average both with his glove and at the plate. That being said, he does no good to anyone sitting on the bench. Unless the Twins are in a position right now that they believe Eduardo Escobar or Ehire Adrianza is their surefire answer at shortstop, Polanco should be getting those reps every single day. Being on the bench does no good for answers, growth, or future expectations when it comes to Polanco or the Twins.
     
    At the end of the day, the idea should be that you're always building towards something. If you aren't building towards a World Series this year, you should be putting your ducks in a row to jumpstart the season ahead. While it's still just the early stages of August, each day that passes counts as a missed opportunity for the Twins. There's a lot of question marks and possible solutions down on the farm, but the longer you wait to figure out who falls into what category, the worse off your find yourself.
     
    Going into the winter, Minnesota will have a strong core that should be supplemented with a few impact pieces to put them over the hump. If they miss out on internal options because they didn't act aggressively, that will hurt far more than whatever the final month's win/loss record sits at. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine traversed the trade landscape admirably in their first year thus far, now it's time for them to make something of what the season has left to offer.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Now into the final third of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have somewhat mapped out their destiny. Selling off short term assets, they will be positioning themselves to make a playoff run in 2018. In the first year under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the club was in somewhat of a feeling out period. Over the offseason, the biggest change could come in who heads up the dugout.
     
    Paul Molitor was given a one-year grace period by owner Jim Pohlad. Despite mixed results his first two seasons, Molitor was saved as Pohlad mandated that whoever take over for Terry Ryan, keep the current manager in place. Now in the last of a three-year deal, Molitor has nothing to fall back on, and management could go a different direction.
     
    When hired, Molitor was up against a group that included names such as Doug Mientkiewicz and Torey Lovullo. The other names in consideration were significantly younger than he was, and had a bit more going for them in terms of managerial experience. Molitor was a guy I backed, and thought made sense, but as we've seen, it's been a bumpy road. It's hard to go backwards and consider what could've been at this point, but the past three years lay a blueprint for Minnesota to avoid.
     
    Chief among the issues that plague Molitor are in game decision making, and his relatability to younger players, which is currently the lifeblood of the Twins future. Regarding in game decisions, Minnesota's skipper has done everything from pinch running in odd situations, to making head scratching bullpen moves. In relief, Molitor has latched onto a few guys each year, and ridden them into the ground. For 2017, that name has definitely been Taylor Rogers. Despite running an overflowing bullpen for the bulk of 2017, the same select arms have been used.
     
    There's been select games that one could point to in illustrating bad in game managing or bullpen usage, and there's also been a concerning trend of the same mistakes being made. For Molitor, it seems to boil down to a lack of experience, or an inability to best position the Twins for success. Being paired with help like Jeff Pickler this year, it's probably not something that has gone unnoticed by the men in charge.
     
    Outside of the in game decision making, there's been a confusing inability to develop youth. While not in the clubhouse or involved in any conversations, it appears from the outside that Molitor struggles with relating to the backbone of Minnesota's core. Whether it be Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, or some other name, Molitor has dropped the ball at times over the past three seasons. Young players have either gone underutilized or put in odd situations at times, and knowing they represent the organization's future, that's more than a little concerning.
     
    In reality, managers in baseball come in somewhere along the middle of the spectrum as far as coaches go. They maybe don't make as many impactful decisions as coaches of other sports do, but the few opportunities they get each night, can have a big influence. Employing an average or mediocre manager may not matter in the standings, but an above average or good choice can absolutely steal you a game or two. Conversely, someone below average as I would argue Molitor has been, can cost a few games over the course of a season. That hasn't mattered in recent memory for Minnesota, but a team with playoff aspirations as soon as next year should want more.
     
    As things stand right now, I'm not sure where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may turn. I do believe they'll go elsewhere to manage the 2018 Twins, and I don't think they can be faulted for that practice. Molitor is finishing out his contract, and I can't see a scenario in which Minnesota or another organization is lined up to give him more run. Paul Molitor the player was a great one, but as a manager, the Twins will need something more a year from now.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    We're well past the halfway point in the 2017 Major League Baseball season. With the Minnesota Twins now looking at both the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians above them in the AL Central, growth is more the focus than the playoffs the rest of the way. Once again this season, pitching has been a problem for the Twins, and 2018 can be a tide turning moment.
     
    For the past handful of years, the Twins have found themselves in a circular state of rebuild. There's been bumps in the road however as management has made missteps in acquiring free agents, and development on the mound hasn't been what you'd have hoped. In 2018, the Twins will be looking at a division full of opportunity, and a lineup ready for a pitching staff to support. Through moves the rest of the way, and over the winter, they can blaze a new trail in the year ahead.
     
    By the end of the week, Paul Molitor's club will have run out 12 different starting pitchers in 2017. That's a high number for the season in total, and being it's only July, something the club will want to avoid a year from now. Looking for five guys to round out a playoff contender in 2018, here's who the Twins should be considering:
     
    Jose Berrios
     
    Start first and foremost with the internal options. Berrios has come into his own in 2017, and while he hasn't been consistently lights out, he's shown the ability in short bursts. Through 14 starts, Berrios has tallied a 3.76 ERA and an 8.4 K/9 to pair with a 2.7 BB/9. You'd still like to see a heightened level of command, but he's been much more good than bad.
     
    Adalberto Mejia
     
    Arguably one the greatest return in a trade for Minnesota in quite some time, Mejia has looked the part of a rotation fixture. He doesn't have a high ceiling, but at the back of the group, you could do a whole lote worse. Through 15 starts he owns a 4.10 ERA and has compiled a 7.6 K/9 to go with a 4.1 BB/9. Pitch economy is something he's struggled with this season, and he'll need to limit high counts and walks to take the next step forward. Still just 24, there's plenty of reason to believe he's capable.
     
    High-Level Free Agent
     
    For all of the hand-wringing the past few seasons in regards to not spending or acquiring talent, 2018 represents Minnesota's first true opportunity to be open for criticism. With a lineup ready to take the next step, and plenty of money coming off the books, there's zero reason not to spend and supplement from outside. Adding a big name hurler isn't going to come cheap, but there's a few sensible options out there. Thad Levine has familiarity going for him with Yu Darvish, and while 2017 hasn't been great for Jake Arrieta, the Cubs pitcher could be a good option as well.
     
    Mid-Level Free Agent
     
    If the Twins don't trade Ervin Santana, and I'd be in favor of them doing so barring a fair return, then they'll need another similar type of arm. Santana has flashed some really good stretches, and putting someone of similar ability in front of the Twins defense could produce consistent results as well. Names among this group probably include Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, Lance Lynn, Tyler Chatwood, or Alex Cobb
     
    A Fight For The Fifth
     
    Rounding out the group, Minnesota could call upon their depth. Trevor May is probably the most talented among the group, but remains a question mark in coming back from Tommy John surgery. Top prospects like Stephen Gonsalves and Fernado Romero will factor in here, and getting them exposure in 2017 seems like a good plan of action. A holdover like Kyle Gibson could make sense if the Twins bring him back as well.
     
    Entering the 2018 slate, it remains apparent that the biggest detriment to Minnesota taking the next step is on the mound. The core for a solid team is there, and the division presents opportunity. Adding from the outside and committing to go for it seems like the logical path to travel. Now let's hope something similar takes place.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    As the 2017 trade deadline quick approaches, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in what amounts to a less than enviable situation. Despite losing a franchise record 103 games a year ago, the turnaround has put them near the top of the AL Central. At 49-50 on July 26, they find themselves 4.5 games back in the division race. That makes decision making that much more critical.
     
    Thus far, the Twins have suggested they will be buyers of long term assets, yet their only move has been to acquire two month rental, Jaime Garcia. The aforementioned Garcia gives the club a nice starting boost while surrendering Huascar Ynoa doesn't hurt them to any real extent. While the trade in and of itself doesn't hurt the club, it doesn't signify any real stance on how they'll approach the rest of the year.
     
    Beginning on July 26, 30 of the Twins final 64 games come against teams with losing records. The bulk of that competition hails from the AL Central, thanks to poor efforts from the White Sox and Tigers. They do get the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Padres down the stretch as well, so there's plenty of opportunities for wins. On the flip side of that coin, both the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals have a similar amount of divisional games left.
     
    Despite the exciting results thus far in 2017, the realistic expectation is that this current Twins club isn't a playoff contender. There's always an argument to be made that going for it when the opportunity presents itself makes sense; after all, anything can happen if you can simply get in. For Paul Molitor's club though, it's virtually division championship or bust. The hometown nine is currently three games out of the second Wild Card, and the Yankees aren't going anywhere. They'd need to be better than the Royals, Rays, and Mariners to be a real player for that final entry into a one-game playoff.
     
    As the rest of the trade landscape takes place, Minnesota finds themselves in an enviable position even if they stand pat. The club is bolstered by a young contingent of players that are under team control, and can be counted on to contribute, for many years to come. A lineup with Sano, Kepler, and Buxton seems to be one that will continually be run out year after year.
     
    Wading in the middle ground, the Twins have some expendable assets. They could probably garner some sort of return for the likes of Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier and Brandon Kintzler. Of that group, only Kintzler is a free agent after the year, and the former two are likely unaffected trade-wise if dealt over the winter.
     
    Right now, the reality for Minnesota is that their internal core is one that already exists. At this point, taking the next step has to come from supplementation. By spending on a couple of free agents, whether through the rotation or the lineup, the Twins 25 man can rise to the next level. There isn't that next top tier prospect ready to provide an immediate impact, and allowing the group to be bolstered by a credible big leaguer or two is something that could put the current contingent over the top.
     
    The fact of the matter is that the middle ground isn't an entirely enviable place to be. Fans void of a winner for some time will be clamoring for the club to make a realistic run. Sacrificing what 2018 appears to be doesn't seem like a solid tradeoff. Playing good teams like the Dodgers, will expose the Twins as the lopsided run differential club they are, but they'll have plenty of wins to grab the rest of the way. Expect an up and down final couple of months, but know that 2017 isn't the spectacle you've been waiting for.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    When trying to set up a major league team for success over the course of a 162 game season, depth is something that every organization strives to possess. Sometimes however, depth becomes a clogging glut of similarity, and ends up being a detriment when trying to push the needle. Right now, the Minnesota Twins could find themselves in that category. The revolving door has continued on the mound, and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight.
     
    After making his second start for the Twins, Bartolo Colon was given another opportunity to take a turn. Despite reports that he was mulling retirement, the bigger issue is that the results were less than lackluster. In two turns for Minnesota, Colon has fared poorly the second time through the lineup. He's allowed opposing hitters to go 8-19 with a triple, two home runs, and three RBI. Despite both starts coming against great offenses (Yankees and Dodgers), Colon hasn't shown any ability to be reliable.
     
    The problem for Minnesota, is that the depth behind him provides lackluster alternatives. Kyle Gibson was recently optioned back to Triple-A Rochester. It comes on the heels of seven shutout innings against the Tigers, but is the result of a poor 6.08 ERA on the year. Gibson hasn't taken the assumed steps forward, and while he's flashed ability at times, has struggle more often than not. Right now, he's probably a better option than Colon, but that's arguably splitting hairs.
     
    Going down the line takes Minnesota to Hector Santiago, who's currently on the disabled list. While the severity of his injury isn't known, the reality is that he wasn't good before being placed there. Santiago owns a 5.63 ERA across 14 starts and has given the club consistently poor starts. He'll likely be reinserted into the rotation at some point, unless of course the Twins want to eat his remaining salary and DFA him.
     
    In acquiring Jaime Garcia from the Atlanta Braves, Minnesota gives themselves a realistic fourth option. Being able to pair him with Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, and Adalberto Mejia, they have another arm that they can count on giving the ball to every fifth day. The problem that continues to remain however, is depth that really provides no solutions. Whether Colon, Gibson, or Santiago is run out there, none of the trio should be given turns at this point. Because depth has essentially boiled down to warm bodies, the Twins don't have much to gain in starts from any of them.
     
    At some point the organization could turn the keys over to the likes of top prospects Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero, but it doesn't appear like that move is on the immediate horizon. Over the course of 2017, the back of the rotation has been handled by giving opportunities to dart throws. Everyone from Adam Wilk to Nick Tepesch has gotten their turn, and the results have been virtually as expected.
     
    It's a pretty big ask for any big league club to have lights out starters even at the bottom of their rotation. Every team needs pitching and that's why it's always overpaid and at a premium. However, for Minnesota, the depth has resulted in a group of guys being cycled through one after another. For a team that's been in the thick of a division race, they've been in a spot where giving up a loss every fifth day is nearly the expectation. At some point, you'd hope that depth has some upside.
     
    While the season wears on into the end of the summer, Minnesota will need to do everything they can to grasp at whatever playoff hopes they may have. Prospects don't always come up and blossom right away, and even the established veteran is far from a guaranteed thing. The Twins have lulled themselves into believing depth is adequate however, when nothing they run out there gives them any better chance to compete. Having depth with some reasonable upside is one thing, but simply putting names on a roster isn't an equivalent scenario.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Whether looking at the 25 man roster as it sits currently, or how it will be constructed a year from now, the Minnesota Twins have opportunity through their bench. In winning more games against other big league clubs, the goal needs to be raising the water level of your weakest link. For Paul Molitor's club, there's some ample opportunity for growth.
     
    On July 24, the Twins employ a bench of three players. Due to the extra (and frankly unnecessary) bullpen arm, the reserves rotate between a group of Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez, Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, and Jorge Polanco. While none of those players are a black hole, the group itself has plenty that can be worked on.
    Looking at the starting roster, there's probable cause for each player to be a relative mainstay for the immediate future. Save for the shortstop and DH roles which are aided by the rotating bench, Minnesota virtually has their lineup claimed. In working towards a better overall talent level, a new bench construction could be a strong place to start.
     
    Of the four aforementioned players, Polanco is the one that sticks out. He's a guy that hasn't owned an OPS south of .600 since he was 16 in the Dominican Summer League. His bat was his calling card for the majors, and while his defense was above-average to start the year, that's regressed to more expected results. Now with a .578 OPS and out of options, the Twins are forced to stash him and allow the 23 year old to work through his problems at the highest level. Ideally you'd like him to go back to Triple-A and iron things out, but his spot isn't necessarily an egregious bench usage.
     
    As a fourth outfielder and designated hitter, Robbie Grossman drew rave reviews through the early part of the season. He's a patient hitter that forces a pitcher to throw strikes, and he simply gets on base. Over the past 33 games however, he owns just a .218/.321/.286 slash line. The .607 OPS is bolstered by no power, and he's contributed just eight extra base hits. Not being able to play an average level of outfield defense, there's plenty more to ask from a designated hitter. Grossman was a great story in 2016 owning an .828 OPS in 99 G, but the regression has set in and he's slipped well off that mark.
     
    Maybe most valuable of the group is Eduardo Escobar. Experiencing somewhat of a breakout in 2015, Escobar owns a career best .768 OPS this season. He's not a great defender, but being average at three positions around the diamond makes him an asset. His nine homers are the second most in his career (12 in 2015), and he's become a much more significant on-base threat (as witnessed by the career best .328 OBP). If you're filling out a bench, Escobar is the ideal candidate to take a spot.
     
    I had questions early on in 2017 as to whether or not Ehire Adrianza and Escobar could coexist. They offer virtually the same thing, with Adrianza being a whiz with the glove despite not hitting at all. Getting into 32 games for Minnesota, Adrianza has a career best .766 OPS. He doesn't generate any power, but he's been good for a timely single when needed. On a three man bench however, a backup catcher and Adrianza taking up two of the spots can be costly. Even in a four man rotation, having near identical players in Escobar and Adrianza seems to drop the ball a bit.
     
    That takes us to the backup catcher in Chris Gimenez. A natural clubhouse leader, Gimenez has posted a .689 OPS on the year. It's his best mark since 2015, and second highest total of his career. While that's great for him, the offensive production in that role is virtually non-existent. Gimenez has been average at best behind the dish, and that may warrant Minnesota looking elsewhere.
     
    Whether or not the Twins make any significant moves in 2017 or not, there's positions to be had on the big club. Mitch Garver seems an immediate boost over Gimenez giving the club plenty in terms of flexibility as well. There isn't a great argument to be made internally when looking at replacing Adrianza, but it stands to reason that a trio of middling infielders all rotating may be wasting a spot. Maybe Zack Granite can chip into Grossman's necessity, but that remains a slow play at best.
     
    Going into 2018, there's room for Minnesota to add offensively. While the bulk of the lineup may be set, and for quite a while, outside help could grab a few extra wins. Having additional firepower in reserve, and knowing it's more than just a placeholder, puts a club in a very good spot. While the 2017 Twins have surprised, the core of a solid team is there, with areas of improvement to take things to the next level.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    As the summer has drug on, the Minnesota Twins have been noted to need some right handed hitting help. Whether the roster is constructed with eight relievers, or the more efficient seven, a boost could be given to the 25 man with a strong hitter on the right side of the plate. For quite some time, Mitch Garver has made a case to be that guy, and it's time to take notice.
     
    Thus far this season, Kennys Vargas has been shuttled between Triple-A Rochester and the big leagues six times. He's often been the guy sent down when a spot is needed, and he's been the easy choice with his production lacking. While the home run power is obvious, Vargas has posted a .723 OPS in 176 at bats, but owns just a .291 OBP in 2017. He has hit eight long balls, but his 54/10 K/BB ratio continues to drag him down. Add in the fact that he's been well below average defensively, and Minnesota simply can't find a reason to carry him.
     
    If there's an opportunity for a new name the next time the big club decides to make a move, it's absolutely worth considering Garver. A 9th round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Mitch Garver has predominantly been a catcher in the Twins system. This season at Triple-A, he's branched out to playing first base and left field more often, only expanding his flexibility. Behind the dish, he's at worst an average receiver, and he's consistently thrown out one-third of would-be base stealers in his time as a pro.
     
    Garver started to gain some real intrigue after a strong second season as a professional with Cedar Rapids. Postin an .880 OPS with 16 homers, there was excitement surrounding the New Mexico native heading into 2015. After scuffling for Fort Myers, he used a strong Arizona Fall League showing to bolster the last two years of his career. With a .764 OPS at Double and Triple-A a year ago, Garver's .915 OPS in 2017 takes his career up a notch. Consistent all season, Garver has already hit 13 homers, and ripped 20 doubles for the Red Wings in 2017.
     
    When looking at his numbers as a whole, it may be easy to overlook just how good Garver has been of late as well. Over the course of his last 31 games, Garver owns a .328/.389/.630 slash line with 12 doubles and eight long balls. On the season, his .884 OPS against righties is solid, and his 1.005 OPS against lefties is downright incredible.
     
    With the Twins currently opting to go the extra pitcher route, they've found themselves using the likes of Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar as the designated hitter. Bench bats have included Chris Gimenez and Ehire Adrianza. When on the roster, Kennys Vargas has played first poorly. Robbie Grossman has shown significant limitations in the outfield, and the 25 man as a whole continues to clamor for a more versatile righty.
     
    It would be foolish to expect Garver to come up and be some sort of a savior for the Twins club. A catcher first, any other position will see some drop off as a secondary position. Also, while hitting the snot out of the ball at Triple-A, he's a 26 year-old rookie that would likely need some time to adjust to the next level. What's also foolish to expect, is that Garver isn't up to the task.
     
    Thanks to the lackluster play of the Cleveland Indians, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the AL Central division race. Squeezing out extra wins by raising the water level on the roster with players from within seems like a solid strategy. Mitch Garver represents a clear upgrade for the hometown nine, and it's time he gets his shot.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the course of the past three seasons, no young player has been more polarizing for the Minnesota Twins than Eddie Rosario. Despite being an early adopter on his bandwagon, and ready for a breakout in 2015, I've been nothing short of a skeptic since 2016 and beyond. In 2017 however, he's having his best offensive year as a big leaguer, and small tweaks are the big story.
     
    After a slow first two weeks to start the season (in which Rosario slashed just .186/.239/.209), he's been a necessary lineup fixture for Minnesota. Despite being consistently tied to a high likelihood of chasing pitches and flailing outside of the zone, he's seemingly been intent upon abandoning those descriptors and has turned over a new leaf. From April 18 until July 17, Rosario owns a .307/.341/.508 slash line. While he's still struck out significantly more than he's walked (51/13), the ratio has turned for the better on both sides.
    Over the three years he's spent in the big leagues, the drastic strides at the plate this season are showing themselves numerically. Owning a 24.9% and 25.7% strikeout rate the past two seasons, he's cut the number to just 19.5% in 2017. He's struck out less because of having gone from a 14.5% swinging strike rate in 2015 (and 15.3% last year), to 12.6% this season. Swinging at less pitches out of the zone (38% in 2017 as opposed to 45.6% in 2015) is no doubt going to raise the water level as well.
     
    During his debut season, only the Red Sox Pablo Sandoval (47.8%) and the Orioles Adam Jones (46.5%) chased pitches out of the zone more often than Rosario's 45.6%. Swinging through 14.5% of pitches he took a hack at, Rosario also fared 10th worst in baseball among hitters in 2015. Thanks to his increased discipline, he now ranks 17th lowest in baseball when it comes to chase rate (bad, but much improved), as well as 41st in SwStr% (which is a big leap). As witnessed by his swings and misses outside of the zone since 2015 as well, pitch recognition is something he's vastly improved upon.
     
    While Rosario is far from an elite hitter at this point, it's no coincidence that his slight changes have helped to post his first big league OPS above .300. As things stand currently, he also paces the Twins with a .289 average. Still a work in progress, enough can't be made about the strides Rosario has made at the plate for Minnesota.
     
    Unfortunately, the downside to the offensive growth is the defensive slide. After tallying a ridiculous 12 assists from left field to go along with 10 defensive runs saved, he's fallen off. In 2016, his big league efforts resulted in basically a league average fielder, and this season, he's been worth -7 DRS and -2.2 UZR. Although Twins fans have dealt with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Josh Willingham, and Delmon Young in left field, Rosario hasn't been any sort of steadying presence this campaign either.
     
    There can't be enough noise made about how important Rosario's offensive changes have been. As the defense now holds him back, the wonder continues to be whether he can put it all together. Rosario at his best presents a dream outfield scenario for the Twins, but he'll need to present the reassurance that he's still capable of that. It's pretty crazy to think that we'd reach a point of Rosario being fine offensively while lacking in the outfield, but here we are. Minnesota needs him to come full circle, and doing so soon would be a nice boost.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    It's July, so there's nothing that will be asked more often over the next couple of weeks than whether or not competing teams should buy or sell. Maybe surprisingly to some, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of that discussion. What's important to take note of, is that the Twins time is now.
     
    There's no way to get around 2016 being a complete disaster for the hometown nine. Minnesota lost 103 games en route to a franchise worst season. That club however, was coming off of an 83 win season in 2015, and highlighted the volatility of youth. In 2017, we're seeing that notion continue. As the club turns over to being one punctuated by the likes of Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton, growing pains are to be expected. Whether or not the expectations were a winning team in 2017, the reality was that this club had pieces to begin to make waves.
     
    As things stand while nearing the trade deadline, Minnesota has seen most of its top talent rise to the big league level. Miguel Sano is here, Jose Berrios has emerged, and Byron Buxton is playing every day. With other names like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the big league club, the farm system has slogged as its best fruits have been picked. That's not to say there isn't talent still in the minors, but rather, the top tier names are bolstering the 25 man already.
     
    For much of the past seven seasons, the talk has been that the Twins haven't spent money, operating cheaply since opening Target Field. While that may be true, it's also a sensible plan of action. Save for 2010, there wasn't a season in which a big splash or two was going to turn a 90 loss squad into one that makes the playoffs. The organization could've splurged to raise the water level, but the end result would still remain. That is, until now.
     
    As Jerry Crasnick recently described the Atlanta Braves on Twitter, the Twins should be both short-term sellers and long-term buyers at this point. If there's value to be had in return for Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier, listen. If you can grab a piece like Sonny Gray or Marcus Stroman, explore it. While waiting on prospects is fun, the impact is two-fold. Some graduate to your big league roster and make an impact (Sano/Berrios/Buxton), others provide an impact by allowing you to improve your big league roster and have their day elsewhere (see Cubs/Red Sox).
     
    I'm not sure what the asking price for impact pitchers, a bat, or relievers will be during this trade deadline, but Minnesota would be wise not to shy away. Nick Gordon is having a great year at Double-A, but if you can turn him and a few others into a player that has a great year for the Twins in 2017 and beyond, absolutely it's something to be considered.
     
    2017 has opened a window for competition in Minnesota thanks to a handful of reasons. While the Twins may be exceeding expectations, they are also highlighting the weakness of the AL Central as a whole. The Indians aren't running away with anything, and every other club is either not competitive, or has its warts. That same scenario should remain in play for at least the next two years, at which point the White Sox system should begin to bear fruit.
     
    In mentioning that White Sox system, it's of note that Chicago may threaten the Twins longevity the most. Through trades in the last year, the Southsiders have added the #2, 12, 14, 16, 45, and 77th best prospects in all of baseball (per MLB.com pre-2017 rankings) as well as a 1st round draft pick and top International signing. They have gone full rebuild, and the level of prospects in their system should quickly become impact big leaguers.
     
    During the deadline this summer, and in the upcoming offseason, the Twins would be operating entirely wrong if they aren't going for it. Thanks to the youth contributing at a high level, their window has opened, and will remain wide for at least the next couple of seasons. Spending money on a big name pitcher or shoring up the bullpen with a handful of different suitors should be the expectation not the hope. While they may come up short in 2017, or find an early playoff exit, bringing in an asset or two that helps now and down the road is hardly a bad decision.
     
    Given the landscape of the division, and the state of the organization as a whole, the Twins time to wait on the next prospect has ceased, and it's time to supplement what they have. The nucleus is there, and the new front office will be tasked with adding to it taking the club over the top.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    After making just on Triple-A start at Rochester, the Minnesota Twins will call on Bartolo Colon to take a stab at shoring up their starting rotation. With the group of five being in flux virtually all season long, the hope is that Colon can be a steadying presence. The reality however, is Minnesota will more than likely be needing a new arm in the coming weeks, and this time, it could be another impact prospect making a big jump.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves has been lighting Double-A Chattanooga on fire, and it appears his time is soon coming. While it was Felix Jorge who got the first crack at the jump, it never made much sense to put Gonsalves in a spot start scenario. Jorge can be a nice piece for Minnesota in the coming years, but he doesn't have the upside that Gonsalves possesses. As one of the organizations top arms, Minnesota will be promoting Gonsalves with the intention of him staying, and the numbers suggest he may be ready.
     
    Getting off to a late start this season, Gonsalves has thrown just 63 innings over 11 starts. While that could be seen as a detriment, he's made 24 starts at Double-A in his career, and now has less miles during the 2017 season. This year, Gonsalves has also elevated his game to another level. After struggling with command in his Double-A debut tour (4.5 BB/9), he's been near perfect this season (1.7 BB/9). On top of lowering the free passes, he's held strong with a 10.6 K/9 mark, truly dominating the level of competition.
     
    Often times, organizations are faced with the idea of whether or not to move a prospect from Double-A to Triple-A as opposed to the highest level. While that works for some, Gonsalves could be argued to be ready for more. He's pitched to a 2.86 ERA and has shown an ability to do more than simply throw the ball by opposing hitters. A lefty with solid velocity and better pitchability, the former fourth round pick appears more ready for the big leagues than ever before.
     
    At the highest level, Minnesota will have some decisions to make. Colon is going to be added to the 40 man roster, while Hector Santiago seems destined to eventually come off the DL, and Phil Hughes looms in the bullpen. Despite that any number of them could make starts, the idea that you'd be counting on them seems a longshot at best. There's sunk cost in both Santiago and Hughes, meaning the Twins would need to be ok simply eating dollars and moving on. Arguably the smart decision, it's not the easiest one to swallow either. Regardless of how things are handled, Gonsalves has forced the issue.
     
    Considering the landscape of the organization, it's really a discussion between Gonsalves and teammate Fernando Romero when it comes to the next man up. The latter is on an innings limit still not too far removed from surgery, and could be a candidate to pitch out of the pen or make a spot start. It's really only Gonsalves that profiles as an impact addition that can be inserted into the rotation and stay.
     
    Right now, it's hard to look at when and where makes sense for Gonsalves. Things are going to remain up in the air throughout the month of July, and as the Twins scour the trade market. As the summer draws on though, I'd be nothing short of surprised if Gonsalves isn't the next man up to take the ball at the start of the game for Minnesota. Suggesting he's ready is a good bet, and things have more than begun to line up.
     
    With youth already the backbone of the big club thanks to Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios all playing key roles, Minnesota could be best served to continue the movement. Maybe not an ace, Gonsalves profiles as a rotation fixture for years to come, and a season from now, could be pitching the Twins into the Postseason.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently on MLB.com, Jon Morosi wrote a trade deadline buyer's guide focused on hitters. I recently wrote a piece regarding the Twins and how they should attack the deadline when it comes to pitching and prospects. I hadn't considered them adding a bat, but there's a name Morosi mentions that could make some sense. Is this the time that Jose Bautista comes to Target Field wearing the home uniform?
     
    There was some talk over the offseason that Minnesota may have interest in the long time Blue Jays slugger. He would join an outfield better suited defensively, but there's a clear path to regular playing time as the designated hitter. Over the winter, he ended up heading back to Toronto on a one-year deal worth $18.5 million. Now on the hook for just a prorated portion, Minnesota could attempt to entice the Canadian AL East club to send him south of the border.
     
    On the season, Bautista has posted a .749 OPS, or his lowest mark since 2009. He owns a poor .234/.349/.400 slash line and has hit just 14 homers. Much of that is directly related to a very slow start to the year however. Since May 12, Bautista owns a .275/.379/.482 line with 11 of his 14 total homers. Having turned it on after a slow start, he's beginning to trend back up.
     
    At 36 years old, and with over 1,000 MLB games under his belt, there was plenty of reason to worry about a downturn in 2017. Now with the season halfway over, the Blue Jays have eaten up most of that risk. Should the Twins, or some other team, trade for him at this point, they'd be getting a player with most of the risk assumed by another organization. Toronto would likely still want a decent return, but unless they are willing to eat most of what's still owed to him, any partner should have strong negotiating position.
     
    Throughout his career, Bautista has enjoyed plenty of success at Target Field. Obviously that comes with the caveat of having faced a good amount of poor Twins pitching over the years. Nonetheless, in 21 games at Target Field, Bautista owns a 1.324 OPS with 14 homers. Obviously playing there full time, those numbers probably decrease some, but having past success to use as a springboard is hardly a bad thing.
     
    Given the Twins current roster construction, Bautista seems to fit as well. While not a good defensive outfielder, he would immediately slot in as the every day DH. He hasn't consistently played first base for some time, but could spell Joe Mauer at the position every once in a while. He also allows Minnesota to upgrade from Robbie Grossman, who while despite being an OBP machine, has gotten exposed with increased playing time.
     
    A lot regarding the landscape of how the Twins attack the remainder of the 2017 season will be determined in the next week or so. With tough series against good teams upcoming, Minnesota will have a much more clear picture as to how they will fair down the stretch. If everything follows along with the status quo however, Jose Bautista remains a name that makes a good deal of sense in Minnesota.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    As the second half of the Major League Baseball season gets underway, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in an interesting position. Despite being in contention and owners of a winning record, they sport a -60 run differential and are void of pitching options. A crossroads is appearing, and Minnesota will need to decide how they are going to acquire some arms.
     
    With the trade deadline quickly approaching, it's pretty easy to note that this club should not be in win now mode. That's to say, no acquisitions for rentals should be made, and the goal shouldn't be to contend in 2017. If transactions are coming, they should all be forward thinking and have future value.
     
    So, if that's the plan of action, there's a handful of exciting names that could be on the table. Recently, Ken Rosenthal tweeted the Twins are checking in on controllable starters. This is absolutely the right avenue to pursue. Those names would include the likes of Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Dan Straily, Julio Teheran or even Gerrit Cole. Now, that group (and there's more possibilities that fall under the umbrella) are going to have varying degrees of asking prices. Regardless of what the Athletics try to argue, the likes of Archer or Stroman represents a superior option to Sonny Gray. Cole and Stroman are near the top end of the spectrum, while Quintana and Teheran hover around the middle. Given the differing acquisition cost of each, the Twins will need to tread lightly.
     
    In flipping players, Minnesota will likely be asked for top prospects such as Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, and Fernando Romero. They could be pushed on Max Kepler, and while there's other names that could draw interest, that foursome probably commands the most attention. Given that level of talent, it will be on the front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to decide if surrendering those players are worthy of making a swap. It's a scenario that will weigh heavily, especially in baseball with another option looming so easily.
     
    It's just money right? Well, that's true to a certain extent, and in an uncapped sport, Minnesota has plenty of it. While you may have disparaged the club previously for being cheap, spending whil the bulk of your roster is subpar doesn't make sense. Given where the organization is right now however, supplementing the roster with a big contract or two could be enough to put you over the top. Sure, the Twins don't have the TV revenue of other markets (meaning the dollars are stretched just a bit further), but they have the means to command the attention of any free agent they covet.
     
    Aside from making a deal with another club, the organization could go with a cost that only requires dollars and cents. Someone like Yu Darvish, with whom Thad Levine is intimately familiar, is a pretty obvious option this offseason. Yes, he'll cost you significantly in terms of cash flow, but he represents the clear upgrade with all of the reasons the Twins as a landing spot just may work.
     
    Given the current landscape of the organization, the window to win has begun to open. Inserting at least one top tier rotation arm will go a long ways to kick it to a gaping degree. If Minnesota can have prospects like Romero and Gonsalves to turn to, as well as a Darvish type, the dollar cost may end up seeming like a moot point as the dust settles.
     
    Should the organization go the trade route, the hope would be that they aim high. Whatever Sonny Gray commands, an Archer, Stroman, or Cole should be more intriguing. If you're giving up prospects, don't stop short of getting the near-guaranteed boost. To deal from youth with a potential to end up looking at another middle of the rotation starter isn't a practice you want to follow.
     
    In the coming weeks, we will soon have a more clear picture as to how the Twins will choose to navigate these waters. There's no denying they need pitching, and they're more than one arm away. The hope would be that they choose to acquire help in a way that not only sets them up to take a step forward, but also doesn't sacrifice any presumed longevity of their winning ways.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming off a season in which the Minnesota Twins posted a record amount of losses, conventional wisdom would've told you to be down on this 2017 squad. However, a year prior in 2015, virtually the same group compiled an 83-79 mark. At the All Star Break this season, Paul Molitor's club looks more the group of two years ago as opposed to the one from last year. There's been good, bad, and ugly, but what do we make of it all?
     
    First and foremost, the Twins were tabbed with an over/under of 74.5 wins going into 2017. At 45-42 at the break, they're on pace 83 wins, and need to go just 30-45 the rest of the way to surpass betting expectations. Through three full months, Minnesota has had two winning flips of the calendar, and a June that saw them miss a .500 month by one game. Back in 2015, a 20-7 May set the pace for the rest of the season, and that team finished with just two winning months total.
     
    Against the rest of the AL Central, the Twins are +2 in the win column, with their best record coming against the Kansas City Royals. The home and road splits have been odd, but are merely an outcome of random variation. The expectation would be that the 20-28 home record sees improvement, while the 25-15 road record takes a step backwards. Given a -60 run differential however, the club will have to make sure whatever slide the do hit, isn't as drastic as that number says it should be.
     
    Numbers aside, this club has a few things to investigate at the midway point. First and foremost, pitching has been virtually what it was expected to be. The rotation has been up and down, being saved from disaster in part thanks to Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. In relief, the bullpen has been nothing short of atrocious save for Brandon Kintzler and Taylor Rogers. The rotation was going to be questionable at best, but has been supported by a strong defense and improved catching game. THe pen could've been upgraded, but with Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow the only offseason additions of note, the level of futility isn't hard to imagine.
     
    On offense, Brian Dozier has (as expected) regressed towards career averages, while Miguel Sano has been just as good (if not better) than his rookie season. We haven't yet seen the big contributions at the plate from Byron Buxton, and players like Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman have waded somewhere in the middle ground. At times, Eddie Rosario has looked like a contributor, and Joe Mauer has trended in a positive direction. With much less reason to worry about the sticks going into the 2017 campaign, it's been about as expected.
     
    Going forward, the Twins are going to need to fend off a form of regression that's almost certain to come. There's plenty of reason to suggest they'll hang around late into the season, the quality of the AL Central chief among them, but there's going to be tough tests ahead. Coming out of the All Star Break, Minnesota faces the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers all in short order. Getting swept or beat in each of those series could put a quick damper on the last half of the season.
     
    As July concludes, the Twins will likely find themselves in a similar position to where they are currently. They've exceeded expectations, but aren't truly a contender. There wasn't enough ammunition brought in over the winter to make this current roster construction viable, and nothing focused on winning in 2017 will change that.
     
    To define the Twins positioning, they should be both buyers and sellers. If looking to acquire talent, it should be controllable options with high ceilings. That may have a significant price tag, but players like Chris Archer or Marcus Stroman aren't simply a 2017 answer, and that's a good thing. On the flip side, if there's teams willing to give you real talent back for someone like Brandon Kintzler, Ervin Santana, or even Brian Dozier, you'd absolutely be best suited to listen.
     
    If you told the casual Twins fan that they'd be 45-43 at the All Star Break this season, I'd imagine the response would be one of disbelief. The position this club finds itself in is a good one, that presents itself as unsustainable, but also makes you wonder what could be if more was done. Going forward, Molitor and the front office will need to get more from less the rest of the way. They'll need to scratch out victories and claw to stay in contention. Missing the playoffs isn't a death sentence, but playing meaningful late season games is far from a guarantee as well.
     
    Thus far, the 2017 Twins have had a successful season. It will be on those currently in the room to ensure it ends that way. To wrap up, here's a few first half awards of note:
     
    Team MVP: Miguel Sano .276/.368/.538
    Sano has looked the part of a middle of the order bat. Sure, he's striking out a ton, and I'd still like to see a few more walks, but everything else is there. The power is real, he hits everything hard, and he's been well above expectations at 3B.
     
    Biggest Surprise: Brandon Kintzler 2.29 ERA 24 SV
    Kintzler doesn't have any of the peripherals a traditional closer possesses, but he continues to make it work. Despite the low strikeout rates, he's a ground ball machine and doesn't walk anyone. It's not always pretty, but Kintzler has been a bright spot in an otherwise abysmal bullpen.
     
    Biggest Disappointment: Jorge Polanco .224/.273/.323
    I've been a Polanco fan for some time now, and it's always been his bat that suggested he was big league ready. This season, he's been above average through virtually the whole first half as a defensive shortstop, but hasn't hit at all. Completely opposite of his career norms, you have to hope the bat picks up soon.
     
    Most Improved: Jason Castro .223/.317/.370
    This is less about Castro as a player specifically than it is about the upgrade he represents. The Twins suffered through a terrible rotation of Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno a year ago. While Castro hasn't hit really at all, he's been great behind the dish, and without him, the marginal pitching staff would be incredibly worse off.
     
    2nd Half Key: Jose Berrios 3.53 ERA 8.7 K/9 2.4 BB/9
    Through his first few turns, Berrios looked the part of the incredible pitching prospect he's been touted to be. He did fade a bit down the stretch, and Minnesota will need that to cease. Given the revolving door that the rotation has been, the Twins can't afford Berrios not to be a high level asset. Whether they trade Santana or not, this team needs Berrios to continue to be an impact hurler virtually every time he steps on the mound.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    When the Minnesota Twins signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal, my initial reaction was one of disbelief. I'm not sure where the feeling came from. It could've been because Colon is a big name, maybe because he has a big ERA, or maybe because at 44 years old, he's a big guy still playing baseball at the highest level. I've now had time to mull it over, and I couldn't be more ecstatic.
     
    Coming out of the All Star Break, the Minnesota Twins will go with a rotation consisting of (and, in order): Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, and Adalberto Mejia. Of that group, Gibson has continued to struggle, and Mejia remains unproven. They'll need to address what to do with Hector Santiago at some point, and Phil Hughes appears to have been jettisoned to the pen despite being owed $26.4 million over the next two years. Where we sit today though, the home nine need another starter.
     
    At this point, we've seen Quad-A type pitchers like Nik Turley and Adam Wilk get a shot. We've brought in veterans like Dillon Gee (who has now seemingly been passed over), and we've watched a Double-A hurler in Felix Jorge make the jump. None of the options Minnesota has cycled through have looked the part of someone that can immediately stick long term. Enter Colon, Bartolo.
     
    Yes, Bartolo Colon has been an atrocity for the Atlanta Braves in 2017. He owns an 8.14 ERA and an equally bad 5.08 FIP. Over the course of 13 starts for Atlanta, he has just two quality starts, and has failed to make it to the 5th inning on six occasions. If you look at his last 10 starts, negative two gems to start the season, he owns an even worse 9.59 ERA. All that said, it's about as bad as it gets. There's rays of hope however.
     
    Let's start with where he was a season ago. With the 2016 Mets, Colon was a mainstay in one of the best rotations baseball had to offer. Across 33 starts (34 games), Colon owned a 3.43 ERA and a solid 3.99 FIP. In fact, prior to 2017, the last time Colon posted an FIP higher than 4.00 was 2009 in a 12 start year for the Chicago White Sox.
     
    As a right-handed pitcher, Colon has generally kept same-handedness hitters in check. During 2016, he allowed a .664 OPS to righties while giving up a .795 mark to lefties. The script has flipped in 2017, as he's surrendered a 1.011 OPS to righties and an .879 OPS to lefites. The surface numbers don't suggest all that much has changed either. His 6.0 K/9 is in line with career norms, while his 2.9 BB/9 is up from where he's been since 2011, it isn't an egregious total. If there's an number that pops off the page, it's the 13.1 H/9 and 1.6 HR/9. It's pretty obvious that extra baserunners, and balls leaving the yard, aren't a recipe for success. What's promising is what lies beneath.
     
    Thus far, Colon has been victim to a .360 BABIP number in 2017. That's way up from a .296 career average, and well above the MLB average this season. Not in line with the rise, Colon is allowing a 32.6 Hard%, which is below his 2016 number, and essentially his average dating back to 2014. A 14.3% HR/FB rate explains the rise in longballs, but well hit baseballs aren't something that seems to be a large problem for Bartolo. On top of all of this, his velocities have held strong. He's averaging 90.7 mph on his fastball this year, up slightly over 2016, and at a normal rate of decline given his age and career arc.
     
    So, what we see is that Colon's surface numbers are an outlier, and that the supporting numbers don't necessarily suggest such a drastic change should be taking place. Of course, we're dealing with a 44 year old who has more than 3,200 innings on his arm. It's very possible he could be cooked, and that everything would fall apart at once, it's also quite likely that isn't the case.
     
    The way things stand for the Twins, Colon is as little of a risk as you can possibly get. They pay him a prorated portion of the league minimum, or just over $200k for the rest of the year. He's not a long term solution, but expecting him to provide valaue is a decent bet. Given the financial implications are next to moot, being a contributor in a rotation that so badly needs it would be a huge boost.
     
    Maybe Colon needed a change of scenery. He'll get a much better defense in Minnesota (the Twins rank 7th in MLB in DRS, Braves are 24th), and he'll get a better team as a whole. The Twins aren't serious playoff contenders, but there's a shot, and that gives Colon something to play for as well. If none of it works out and things go up in flames, neither side is out much, and can move on. For Minnesota though, Colon could represent a boost the club desperately needs.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    34 years old and in the second to last season of his eight-year deal with the Minnesota Twins, Joe Mauer has given the organization a brand new opportunity. Despite being sapped from the sure-fire Hall of Fame trajectory he was on as a catcher, Mauer has mostly scuffled at first base. In 2017 though, there's a different narrative beginning to emerge. In his current form, Mauer presents some intriguing value to the Twins.
     
    The knock on Mauer at first base has always been that he doesn't hit for enough power to play the corner spot. While that's a fair assessment, he's turned into a premier defender. He's absolutely worthy of a Gold Glove in 2017, and should've been more in the conversation a season ago had he played in enough games to qualify. While the defensive metrics may be fickle, the vast majority tip the scales in his favor. All of that is for another time however, this new opportunity is about Joe Mauer the hitter.
     
    Owning a career .308/.390/.444 slash line, Mauer likely won't be putting up the slugging percentage of his career average any time soon. However, he's shown that when healthy and given regular rest, he's still not someone opposing pitchers should want to face in 2017. On the season, his .287/.360/.404 slash line is the best mark he's posted since the last time he was an All-Star, in 2013. More impressively yet, Mauer's numbers under the hood are relatively gaudy.
     
    It's been a talking point for some time that the lefty has declined greatly against similarly-handed pitchers. In 2017, Mauer has 67 plate appearances against lefties, and he owns a paltry .542 OPS. Against righties however, he's slashed .305/.381/.448 with all five of his home runs, 15 of his 17 doubles, and driven in 26 of his 33 RBI. There's really no other way to put it, Mauer remains a menace against right-handed pitching.
     
    At 34, Mauer isn't the same hitter that used to draw walks more often than he struck out. That streak all but ended in 2012. However his 14.6 K% ranks 35th in MLB, and only Dustin Pedroia has a lower (3.8%) SwStr% than the Twins first basemen (4.0%). After topping out at 112 strikeouts during 2015, Mauer is at just 45 through the club's first 83 games, putting him on pace for an acceptable 88 (lowest since 2012).
     
    Diving a bit further into the output, Mauer's 34.6 Hard% is the best mark he's posted since 2012, and while he's going the opposite way more often than any season since 2014, he's putting the ball in the air more often (27.6%) than any season dating back to 2009 (29%). At this point, we know groundballs aren't the way to sustainable success in the big leagues, and Mauer has created a perfect storm for himself.
     
    While highlighting the good side of things may seem self serving, the reality, at least to a certain extent, is that's exactly the point. The Twins have an opportunity going forward to be self serving with Mauer. I'd love it if he could pick up the hardware this season and win a Gold Glove. A year from now however, putting him into a full time platoon with a right handed first basemen (with a bit bigger power bat), makes all the sense in the world. Rather than having an above average answer to part of the equation, they'd immediately have a true threat at first base.
     
    We have seen (and probably should've known) that Kennys Vargas is nothing more than a bench bat in a best case scenario. ByungHo Park is starting to turn things around at Triple-A, but there hasn't been much power there, and a handful of question marks still remain. One of the most often called for things off of the Twins bench is a right handed power bat; killing two birds with one stone by asking that player to be a first basemen seems like an ideal scenario.
     
    If there's a necessary caveat to mention in all of this, it's that there's not a ton of options when it comes to lefty-mashing first basemen. Of the impending free agents, you're left with a list of Mike Napoli and Mark Reynolds. The former was a Twins target that's been awful in 2017, and the latter has reverse splits, hitting righties far better (and also has to beat the skepticism of hitting outside of Coors Field).
     
    Regardless of how this narrative plays out, what is certain is that Joe Mauer has given the Twins an opportunity. They can upgrade first base production by pairing him with a partner. He isn't going to sign another long term deal following this contract, but being kept around on short deals after it, he's an asset as opposed to a former aging vet like Torii Hunter may have been.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    When the Major League Baseball draft commenced in early June, the only certainty was that the Minnesota Twins would make the first selection. There were a handful of names being thrown around as possibilities for the first overall pick, but only those inside the Twins war room knew for certainty whose name would be called. As the dust settled and prep phenom Royce Lewis was the pick, Minnesota immediately had a new name atop their prospect rankings.
     
    Lewis, a star shortstop and outfielder, is regarded as being the most polished high school position prospect in the draft. Noted equally for his maturity as his athleticism, he should immediately step into the Twins system and find success. I had the privilege of catching up with him following the draft, and touched on a few different subjects to get to know him a bit better.
    Here's what he had to say:
     
    Off The Baggy: What was your draft day experience like?
     
    Royce Lewis: I was in Studio City, CA at my grandparents house with my family. We went into the day without expectations, just excited about the potential opportunity.
     
    OTB: Did you have an inclination early in the day the Twins might be looking to take you at 1/1?
     
    RL: I absolutely did not have any idea that the Twins would select me. I had many conversations with them, however I had conversations with all of the teams. I never doubted my abilities and what I could bring to an organization, but you just never know what will happen, what a team is looking for, or what their needs are.
    OTB: Playing both shortstop and the outfield, your athleticism shines on the diamond. What do you feel your strengths are at both positions? Do you prefer one?
     
    RL: I am very athletic with great speed and reactions. Having baseball instincts and the ability to read the ball off the bat well, I have an edge to make plays that others may not at both positions. I have never had much formal training at either position, basically I have relied on my athleticism to do things take over, so with daily training at either or both I am excited to see where it takes me. I love being up the middle because I feel I can help the team at both, however I prefer shortstop because I feel that I am a natural leader and at shortstop I am able to be involved more in the game. The position is naturally a position which is a leader on the field, so I would be able to help the team to get wins and championships.
     
    OTB: Tell us about your hitting approach? Are you a gap power guy, or is speed on the basepaths your thing?
     
    RL: My approach to hitting is that I look for a pitch to drive. I believe I can offer all 3: power, gap to gap, and speed. I just turned 18 on June 5th and have not reached my full potential or growth. Again I look forward to the daily training and facing the best pitching teams have to offer. I feel I am at my best when being challenged. One of my strengths as a hitter is that I am very good with 2 strikes.
     
    OTB: Making the jump from high school to the professional ranks, what do you see being your biggest challenge? What will help to set you apart?
     
    RL: My biggest challenge will be playing with the best of the best everyday, but this is my dream and I look forward to working hard to challenge myself to always try to be better than the day before. Everything only happens with determination and hard work and I am determined and will work hard everyday, this is what will set me apart. The fact that I am always a student of the game, whether I am in the game or watching others play, there is always an opportunity to learn something which will help better my game.
     
    OTB: Being from California, what is your knowledge of Minnesota and the Twins organization? Have you been to Target Field previously?
     
    RL: I had never been to Minnesota before the Twins organization flew my family and I out for the weekend. It is such a beautiful and clean city. I love that the fan base is so big with Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the surrounding areas. It is great that the Twin Cities have 6 professional teams in one area (Baseball, Football, Basketball, Hockey, Soccer, and Women's Basketball), so many cool things to be apart of and support. My family and I love the state motto "Minnesota Nice." I feel that I will fit in perfect with that as I am a nice guy who will give everything I have to be successful in all that I do while helping others along the way. I am grateful for the opportunity to be a part of such an amazing organization. Target Field was incredible, it is one of the best stadiums I have been in and I love that you can maneuver through the downtown area in the skyways without going outside. That is really cool, we do NOT have stuff like that in California!
     
    OTB: Who's a pro player, past or present, that you may have modeled your game after or look up to?
     
    RL: I have always looked up to Derek Jeter because he played the game the right way both on and off the field. I also look to Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor because they are really really good and always seem to be enjoying the game and making it fun! When you love what you do, you will be more successful at what you are doing no matter what it is and for me it is the game of baseball. However, I really hope to just be me, to be "Royce Lewis" and hopefully one day people will look to be like me because I am a great person and player who makes the game fun in all the right ways. It is good to look to others for advice and tips to better yourself but in the end you have to be you and make you.... "the best you can be"!!!
     
    With a long journey ahead, Royce appears to have a great head on his shoulders, and be well positioned to climb through the organization. As the GCL season gets underway, Twins fans will have a chance to see it begin to come together.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. Ted Schwerzler
    Another Jose Berrios start, another dazzling performance. The former top pitching prospect for the Minnesota Twins has looked every bit the top tier starter he was billed to be. After an ugly start to his big league career a year ago, 2017 couldn't be more of a drastic turnaround for the Puerto Rican native. No matter where you look, the numbers jump off the board.
     
    Surface numbers weren't kind to Berrios in his MLB debut during 2016. He made 14 starts and compiled an 8.02 ERA. He won just three of his starts and totaled a 6.20 FIP. A strikeout guy on the farm, he posted just a 7.6 K/9 and walked a ridiculous 5.4 per nine a season ago. He was allowing hard contact one-third of the time, and 16.2% of fly balls were leaving the yard. Batters were making contact with his pitches just under 81% and he generated swinging strikes just 8.2% of the time. You'd have to look lone and hard for anything that suggested promise.
     
    Maybe most importantly, Berrios was just 22 years old, and a whole lot of maturity seems to have latched on over the course of the past year. In 2017, Berrios has made eight starts for the Twins, totaling out to a 7-1 record. He owns a 2.67 ERA backed by a solid 3.30 FIP. Strikeouts are there at an 8.8 K/9 clip, while walks are in control at a 2.5 per nine pace. The Twins hurler has kept hitters off balance allowing just 22.8% hard contact, and only 6.9% of his fly balls are leaving the yard. Contact rates have dipped to 77.2% and he's generating swinging strikes 10.4% of the time. In 2017, you'd be equally hard pressed to find a problematic area.
     
    Despite making half the starts (Baseball Savant hasn't yet been updated to include his latest outing), Berrios has compiled 84 swinging strikes as opposed to 100 in 14 outings a year ago. He's getting batters to miss, and his breaking pitches have become the draw of many a GIF around the internet. Velocity remains the same across the board, and really, the only change to his repertoire is a higher amount of benders being thrown. Halving his changeup usage from 14.4% to 7.7%, Berrios has upped his curveball rate to 28.3% this season.
     
    The knock on the Twins young star has always been his stature. Given his height, the lacking plane on his arm angle could be seen as problematic when getting pitches to appear as anything but straight. Recently, Baseball Prospectus' Matthew Trueblood penned a piece on a few tweaks he's made. In lowering his arm slot (as Parker Hageman diagrams in a tweet), and switching to the third base side of the rubber, Berrios has experimented with controllable options to make him more effective. While they may not be the golden ticket, it's hard to argue against the effectiveness in 2017.
     
    As the season draws on, each start continues to give us more insight into what the Twins may have in Berrios. There's been more than a handful of times he's worked himself into danger this season. What has been different, is that he's avoided the big inning, and in general, not allowed the game to get away from him. Pitchability is something that seems to have taken an uptick, as Berrios is dictating at bats and getting the results he needs to escape a jam.
     
    During the 2016 season, the game seemed to control how Berrios was going to react on the mound. As the flow progressed, Berrios reacted and the results followed. In 2017, the opposite seems to take place. Berrios is dictating the game flow, and allowing a heightened sense of maturity to keep him in charge regardless of the scenario. Pairing that with the minor physical tweaks seems to have unlocked the potential that was expected all along.
     
    Right now it's not worth putting a numerical starter value on him, or discussing what his ceiling for the Twins may be. It's pretty apparent that Jose Berrios is a difference maker, and while it's still early, that much appears to be here for good.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Way back in October 2016, I ranked the Twins Top 15 prospects (found here). While there wasn't a number one prospect in all of baseball like Byron Buxton, there's still a lot to like in the organization from top to bottom. Now with the 2017 Major League Baseball draft behind us, and the minor league slate half over, it's time to reassess the group as a whole.
     
    Going from 15 to 1, the group has seen some movement, and there's been some really strong performances thus far in 2017. We could see a few of these names graduate from the group yet this year, and the Twins could find help internally from the farm. With that said, here we go:
     
    15. Mitch Garver C
     
    Garver just missed out on this list prior to 2017, but has continued to command attention. I opined there was some steam to him making the club out of spring training, and he's probably next in line behind John Ryan Murphy. Garver owns an .808 OPS at Triple-A Rochester in 40 G this season, and has some positional flexibility being able to play 1B as well. He has strong caught stealing numbers, and can defend behind the plate at an above average level. There's reason to believe that Garver should finish the season in Minnesota.
     
    14. Daniel Palka OF
     
    For a time Palka looked like he could push for an early promotion to the big leagues in 2017. His production dipped a bit, and now he's on the DL with a .768 OPS. Power is always going to be his calling card, and he was off to a nice start with eight homers through his first 41 games. The strikeout numbers are only going to rise at the big league level, so he'll have to do more work to draw a consistent amount of walks.
     
    13. Lewis Thorpe SP
     
    Getting back on the mound after missing the past two seasons, Thorpe has picked up where he left off. Through his first four starts at Fort Myers, he owns a 2.12 ERA and a 12.7 K/9 to go with a 2.6 BB/9. He looked good at Cedar Rapids prior to his Tommy John surgery, and it seems he's rebounded well. The Twins will no doubt have the 21 year old on an innings limit (and he's never thrown more than 71.2 IP in a season), so he'll likely end 2017 at High-A.
     
    12. Jake Reed RP
     
    Had he stayed healthy out of the gate, Reed would probably be with the Twins already. He suffered an injury on the final day of spring training, and lost a few months of work. Now back healthy, he made quick work of a brief return to Double-A and is back at Triple-A Rochester. Reed has an electric fastball, and solid movement on his pitches. He's a big league reliever with the ability to move towards the back end of the bullpen.
     
    11. Wander Javier SS
     
    Yet to play in 2017, Javier is likely destined for the GCL. He missed a good amount of time in the Dominican Summer League last year, but remains an incredible physical specimen. Watching him in Fort Myers this spring, I have doubts as to whether he can stick at short simply because of his growth. He's bulked up a good amount, and the power potential already flashes big time. The Twins have no shortage of shortstop prospects, but Javier is among the best of them.
     
    10. Tyler Jay RP
     
    Unfortunately for the former 6th overall pick, health hasn't been something easy to come by. Jay was slated to work solely as a reliever this year, and should be at Triple-A by now at worst. He's on the DL again however, and pitched just two innings at Double-A prior to being shelved. If he can stay on the field, the velocity and stuff play out of the pen, but he needs to get a clean bill of health first.
     
    9. Blayne Enlow SP
     
    Taken with the Twins pick at 76th overall in the 2017 MLB draft, Enlow is a prep pitcher with an arrow pointing straight up. He's got a strong fastball that can sit mid-90's, and a host of different outlets called his curveball among the best in the draft. Enlow should have top of the rotation starter potential for the Twins, and ends up being a great value pick for them.
     
    8. Travis Blankenhorn 3B
     
    Since being selected in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft, all Blankenhorn has done is rise in the Twins prospect ranks. He owns an .804 OPS in 66 games with Cedar Rapids this year, and the power has started to play. With 12 doubles and eight homers already, he's a corner infielder that can drive the ball out of the park. Blankenhorn could push for a late season promotion to the Miracle, and at just 20 years old, he's got plenty of developing left to do.
     
    7. Felix Jorge SP
     
    At the time of this writing, we've already had at least one opportunity where the Twins could've called upon Jorge. Realistically, he probably could use a stop at Triple-A, but making the jump from Chattanooga isn't out of the question. He owns a 3.35 ERA across 13 starts this season, and has compiled a 6.2 K/9 with a 2.5 BB/9. Jorge doesn't have much in the form of strikeout stuff, and he's not going to blow big league hitters away, but he can pitch, and doesn't miss his spots. Expecting him to get a few turns with Minnesota this year is a good bet.
     
    6. Brent Rooker OF/1B
     
    With their first comp pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, the Twins took the SEC Triple Crown winner from Mississippi State. Rooker can hit, and whether or not he can hit at the professional level will determine his fate. 23 already, Minnesota will move him aggressively. He'll be at Fort Myers for the bulk of 2017, and could push for time with the Twins as early as 2018. Finding him a position, either in the corner outfield or at first, remains a question but the bat should be expected to play. The Twins will likely go with a sink or swim approach to Rooker and have a good idea of what they've got quickly, but I believe there's something special here.
     
    5. Alex Kirilloff OF
     
    The 2016 first round pick is missing the season due to Tommy John surgery. After suffering the injury late in the 2016 season and being shut down, it's not ideal how long it took for Minnesota to address the root of the problem. Regardless, Kirilloff has time on his side, and he'll have the success of a strong pro debut in his back pocket. Look for him to make an impact in the lower levels of the farm a year from now.
     
    4. Fernando Romero SP
     
    Quite possibly the Twins lone ace prospect, Romero is one of the most intriguing pitchers in all of minor league baseball. He can push his fastball near triple digits, and the command is something he's beginning to hone in on. With a 3.27 ERA through his first 13 starts for Double-A Chattanooga, he's another guy that the Twins could be looking to bump up a level sooner rather than later.
     
    3. Stephen Gonsalves SP
     
    After getting a late start to the year due to injury, Gonsalves has come out of the gate firing. In six starts, he's posted a solid 3.18 ERA, but more impressive is his 11.1 K/9 and the 2.1 BB/9. Gonsalves had a few bouts of command issues during his initial call to Double-A in 2016, but those appear to be all but behind him. While he may not have the upper 90's fastball, his repertoire puts him in the conversation for a very nice rotation piece in the years to come.
     
    2. Royce Lewis SS
     
    If I was to include Lewis on this list prior to 2017, he'd likely have been number one. He just misses out on the top spot now, but the top pick in the 2017 MLB Draft should make Twins fans salivate. He can hit, hit for power, and field well above average at shortstop. The tools are all there for a star in the making, and while he's no less than four years away from the Twins, he'll be one of the top prospects in baseball for the majority of that time.
     
    1. Nick Gordon SS
     
    There's no Twins prospect that has been more impressive than Gordon in 2017. In his first 64 games at the Double-A Level, he owns an .880 OPS and is batting .315. Gordon has clubbed six homers, doubling his previous career season high, and he's already just two doubles away (21) from tying that career high as well. For someone that was noted as a glove first prospect when he was drafted, he's bounced between second and short, now settling back in at shortstop, and all he has done is rake. I'd still like to see him cut down on the errors, but Gordon is continuing to look more and more like a potential All Star.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Way back in 2015, I wrote about Ervin Santana and what he was bringing to the Twins after signing as a free agent. The crux of the piece was that he needed to show an ability to be more than his surrounding parts. He's been a great pitcher when paired with great defenses. That has been the case in 2017 for the Twins, but in June, his defense hasn't been able to be a factor.
     
    As doom and gloom sets in of late, it's first worthwhile to offer some perspective. Santana has made 15 starts for the Twins, and pitched exactly 100 innings. He owns a career best 2.97 ERA and his 1.020 WHIP also registers as a high water mark. Throw in three dazzling complete game shutouts, and the sum of all parts still equals a very fun-to-watch 2017. In June though, the wheels have fallen off, and it's worth finding out why.
     
    Having now made four starts in the month of June, Santana owns a 7.04 ERA while opposing hitters are enjoying a .972 OPS against him. He's labored to get through outings, going more than five innings just once. In fact, had he not thrown a complete game shutout against the Giants as one of the four starts, the already gaudy numbers could look even worse. In taking a deep dive to find a deficiency, it seems that Santana has become susceptible to the ball that can't be caught. He's given up seven homers in four June starts, after allowing just eight in his other 11 combined.
     
    On the year, Santana has danced around danger by avoiding hard contact. He's given up low line drive rates, and the ball simply hasn't been difficult to track down. Some of that has continued in June, but as the ball has elevated, so too have the numbers.
     
    Santana has actually dropped his line drive rate from 15.5% (4/3-5/29) to 11.4 % (6/3-6/20) as the months have gone on, but the hard hit rate has spiked ever so briefly from 24.5% (4/3-5/29) to 28.8% (6/3-60/20). As the ball has been hit harder, the Twins aced has seen a BABIP go from .143 through the first two months, to .315 in the last one. Giving his fielders less of a chance to help him out, he's also watched his FIP balloon from 4.19 through May to 6.82 in June. The icing on the cake is pretty simply though; the amount of fly balls turning into home runs is incredible. At just 9.2% through May, that number has spiked to 25% in June.
     
    Among qualified starters, only six pitchers have allowed over 20% of fly balls to leave the yard. Of those, only the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka has given up a 25.0% HR/FB rate, and his ERA rests at 6.34. Pretty obviously, allowing one out of every four fly balls to leave the stadium is not a path to success.
     
    Santana is a guy that has seen his fair share of homers allowed, but it's never been an egregious problem for him outside of 2012 with the Angels when he led the league with 39. After giving up 1.0 and 0.9 HR/9 with the Twins each of the past two years, Santana has seen the total swell to 1.4 in 2017, ow the worst mark since that 2012 season. Before June hit, that total was at just 1.0 on the year.
     
    In trying to figure out what has changed, Santana doesn't offer a whole lot of clues. He's allowing less line drives of the past month, and while the hard contact is slightly up, he's actually decreased the flu ball rate by just over 8%. If there is something that jumps off the page however, it's the usage of his pitches.
     
    Through May 29, or his 11th start, Santana was throwing his changeup 14.7% of the time. In the month of June, he's cut that number down to 8.2%. As we can see in comparing his pitch types by count in April/May up against June, the changeup is a pitch he's all but abandoned in multiple scenarios. Not only has he turned away from it in pitcher's counts (namely 2-2 and 1-1), but he's not using it to keep hitters off balance either (3-0, 3-1, 2-1). It's not a pitch he's thrown at 14% over the course of his career, but it is something pitching coach Neil Allen is known for, and an offering that the Twins ace appeared to be having success with.
     
    We could absolutely look back on the month of June late in the season and see it as a blip on the radar. Santana could simply have a confidence issue he's working through, and this could easily be put behind him. It could also end up being a turning point that spoils what began as a very exciting start.
     
    There's no denying that Ervin Santana has always been a pitcher held up by a strong defense. He's capable on his own, and elevates his game by using the guys behind him. When allowing the ball to leave the yard as much as he has however, no one is able to come to the rescue, and things snowball as they have. Whether turning back to the changeup, or finding some other way to right the ship, Minnesota needs Santana to give himself and his fielders a chance.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    The Cleveland Indians came into Target Field and punched the Minnesota Twins right in the mouth. Not only were the Twins swept, but their lead in the AL Central is all but gone. What's worse is that what took place over the weekend (especially Saturday) may happen more often than not. The unfortunate reality is that the Twins just don't have starting options.
     
    For game one of a double-header against arguably the division's best team, the Twins sent out a sacrificial lamb in the form of Adam Wilk. The journeyman lefty has never been given more than 14 innings in an MLB season, and he owns a 7.36 ERA at the big league level. Simply put, he's not qualified to be attempting to retire major league hitters. All of this information was known going into the tilt with the Indians, and there wasn't much Minnesota could do about it.
     
    Sure, Wilk isn't who the Twins would prefer to run out to the mound (he was DFA'd immediately following his outing), but they are sparse on options as well. Already nine starters deep this season, both Phil Hughes and Hector Santiago is currently shelved. There's been talk of both returning as relievers, but that is likely only to mask the sunk cost and unfortunate truth that effectiveness eludes them both.
     
    That leads us to where the Twins currently find themselves. The 2017 season has 95 games left for the Twins, and they're 2.0 games back in a pretty poor division. Realistically though, the playoffs weren't something seen as a possibility coming into the campaign, and the slate thus far has provided quite a bit of surprise. With the window being fully opened (with a few pieces added) in 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have to decide what to do with what's left of 2017.
     
    On the farm, there's a few answers, but development will likely need to come into the question. The largest area of deficiency for the Twins still stands on the mound. Both starting and relief options have been lackluster at best, and the system itself has a few options for the big club to consider.
     
    Adding to the starting options, Double-A includes the trio of Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and Stephen Gonsalves. Both Romero and Gonsalves have an injury history, and are likely being monitored for health going forward. They represent no less than middle-of-the-rotation upside, and both (at their best) can be impact arms for Minnesota. Making the leap from Double-A is a steep one however, and a promotion may not be in the cards under more normal circumstances. Jorge can be a back-end big league starter, and while a quick promotion may stunt a little development, he could be argued to be the most ready.
     
    If the Twins weren't in a place where they were having to draw straws for a starter every other night, there's probably no talk of any Double-A arms going anywhere but Triple-A Rochester. Given the circumstances though, the front office must at least consider if it's beneficial to provide a boost to the big league rotation with one of the top arms on the farm. There will be innings limits to monitor, and rough patches to be expected, but the alternatives haven't provided much more upside.
     
    Out of the bullpen, similar scenarios reside for the Twins. Alan Busenitz was finally given a shot, but the farm still holds guys like Trevor Hildenberger, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, and John Curtiss. Hildenberger has paid his due at Triple-A and would be a worthy call at this point. Melotakis was recently promoted to Rochester, and probably could've skipped the level. Reed has pitched in Triple-A before, and Curtiss looks the part of a guy that can get big league hitters out.
     
    Each of the aforementioned names have their warts, but the present more upside than a handful of the current relief contingent. The Twins would have less to lose throwing a reliever into a big league scenario than the starters they'd be considering, but the jump is still not one to be taken lightly. The pen is an area that needs vast improvement, and having not signed multiple vet replacements this offseason, it would appear that an influx of youth makes the most sense.
     
    For a team that has a terribly negative run differential, and has been playing above water due in large part to offensive performance, real questions need to be addressed. At this point, I think we can safely rule out any reason for this team to be "buyers" in another month, but they maybe should consider supplementing from within. Although they'd likely have to disregard normal timelines, jump-starting a prospect's career at the big league level could provide benefits for all. If a young arm flops right now, they have knowledge necessary to compete a year from now. If things break right, Minnesota ends up with the needed influx of talent.
     
    What is easily apparent however, is that this club can't continue to shuffle bodies on the mound. They won't play competitive baseball that way, and they aren't building for anything in that scenario either.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    Three days and 41 selections later, the Minnesota Twins have concluded their 2017 Major League Baseball draft. Owning the first pick, and being the first team to do so while leading their division since they were in the same spot in 2001, the Twins found themselves in a good spot. Now with the war room disassembled and the picks made, it's hard not to be excited about what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did in their first crack from the director's chair.
     
    Starting off with the first overall pick, the front office had a clear plan, and it appears they executed it. I opined multiple times on Twitter that the Twins wouldn't spend over $7m regardless of who they took at 1/1. With Royce Lewis, they get an elite athlete that could stick at short, and his the upside of a big league All Star for years to come. In taking him above projection, Minnesota banked slot value to disperse to a few other picks.
     
    Although the Twins would never suggest that it was McKay, Greene, or Wright they preferred over Lewis, there's plenty of reason to believe the prep shortstop was their plan all along. His bat has plus-plus potential, and he offers versatility in being able to play up the middle of the diamond, regardless of it being in center or at short. The makeup is incredible, and while he may not have drawn the nod from many mocks, the tools are indicative of a guy with an arrow pointing straight up.
     
    Following up Lewis with another slam dunk pick, I'm a huge fan of what the Twins did in taking Brent Rooker. After having the privilege to get to know him a bit better, the mentality matches the output. He not only puts up incredible numbers with his bat, but he puts in the work and understanding to have the know-how to keep it going.
     
    Sure, Rooker is going to have to settle into a position (most likely LF or 1B), and he's a bit older at 23. Neither of those things should deter Twins fans though when the guy does what he does at the plate. I'd imagine he'll be assigned to Cedar Rapids from the get go, and we could see him at Target Field sometime in late-2018. Rooker should immediately slot into the Twins top 5 or 6 prospects, and his bat alone makes him a high value pick just outside of the first round.
     
    I won't pretend to know a ton about Canadian right-hander Landon Leach, but I think he has the potential to be a nice arm for the Twins. He drew steam late in the draft process, and sounds like his stuff has the ability to tick upwards while already being relatively strong with command. Touching 95 now as a prep arm, that's a number that should only increase as he continues to grow into his frame.
     
    Thanks to the plan working out in regards to Lewis and positioning, Minnesota found themselves able to select Blayne Enlow and pay him over slot to turn away from a commitment to LSU. He's arguably one of the top arms in the draft, and even higher among those only in the prep ranks. Yes, it'll take time for him to rise through the system, but he gives the Twins another potential top-of-the-rotation type to add to the organization. MLB.com called Enlow's curveball the best in the draft, and he has a fastball that can get big league hitters out.
     
    Looking at the rest of the draft from a more top down view, I really like the Andrew Bechtold pick in Round 5. He's a strong third basemen that can absolutely hit, and he comes from a Chipola program that is top notch. More value was found in the 6th Round when Minnesota grabbed Ricardo De La Torre. He didn't have a good year, and fell, but getting a one-time first round potential pick this late is great.
     
    The group as a whole did have some surprises. I'm not too terribly shocked that the Twins went college heavy, and where they did go with prep players, the ceiling remains very high. Just three left handed pitchers was a bit low for my liking, but the organization may not have had too many on their radar. I also thought waiting until the 17th round to grab the first catcher was somewhat of a shock, but this draft didn't have a ton of great options there either.
     
    All in all, the Twins should walk away from this class feeling accomplished. Of their first seven or so selections, three or four should slot in among their top 10 prospects in the organization. I'd imagine all will have a place in the top 20, and Royce Lewis immediately becomes the Twins second best prospect for me. I plan on revisiting the top 15 prospect list in the coming weeks, but this club added value back into an organization that needed it.
     
    Right now, it doesn't matter how many young shortstops the Twins have. It doesn't matter how few pitchers they can turn to. Honestly, the biggest thing that needed to happen in the draft, was Minnesota rejuvenate the farm, and they did that. Adding young, high ceiling, talent always has to be the goal. Figuring out how to utilize it, whether that being through trades or otherwise, can always come later. In their first go round, both Falvey and Levine should feel good about what took place.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    With their second pick in the 2017 Major League Baseball draft, the Minnesota Twins selected Brent Rooker from Mississippi State. He's one of the most exciting hitters in the country, and he's a guy the Twins targeted in 2016 as well. I had the opportunity to catch up with him, and get a little more insight into the process and his game.
     
    Rooker was absolutely incredible for the Bulldogs this season. He batted a robust .387/.495/.810 along with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 homers, 82 RBI, and a solid 58/48 K/BB rate. Playing in the SEC, he was raking against some of the best pitchers in the nation, on a nightly basis. After heading back to college following a 38th round selection by Minnesota a year ago, he became a Twin with the 35th overall pick.
     
    I reached out to Brent and had a few questions for him. Prior to him signing on the dotted line for the Twins and heading to his first stop as a pro, here's a little insight into the newest Twins slugger.
     
    Off The Baggy: You've been drafted by the Twins each of the last two years. Obviously the 30 plus round jump says plenty, but what do you see as the biggest difference in you as a player now compared to a year ago?
     
    Brent Rooker: I really grew and matured as a hitter. I have a sense of how to formulate advanced game plans pitch by pitch, which gives me the best chance to be successful. The conviction to a specific plan and ability to execute that plan is something that I struggled with last year.
     
    OTB: At Mississippi State, you put up video game like numbers at the plate. Explain your approach to hitting, and what you see as being the most challenging at the next level?
     
    BR: I like to be aggressive in the box and look to do damage with every swing. I think my power is my best tool and I need to do everything I can to utilize it as much as possible. Obviously the higher you make it in baseball the better the arms get, so just being able to continue to adjust and compete with elite arms is gonna be a big key.
     
    OTB: Coming off a successful 2017 season with the Bulldogs, what has most prepared you to make the jump to the professional level?
     
    BR: The daily grind of the SEC is something that I was very blessed to be able to be a part of. It's the best conference in the country and we see top 3 round arms every single weekend. It's that kind of competition that I think has really prepared me for pro ball.
     
    OTB: It's the batting numbers that pop off the page, but what are some of the other aspects of your game you think set you apart?
     
    BR: I think my mental preparation allows me to have a lot of success. I take scouting reports and game planning for pitchers very seriously as well as focusing on putting my self in the best mental state for success.
     
    OTB: What do you know about the Twins organization? Have you been to Target Field, or Minnesota in general?
     
    BR: I've never been to Minnesota but I know that it's an outstanding organization with tons of talent from top to bottom. I couldn't be more excited to get started.
     
    OTB: The Twins tweeted out a video of you getting the call, what was the draft experience like for you?
     
    BR: The draft experience was amazing. Being surrounded by my friends and family when I got that call and fulfilled a lifelong dream was a surreal moment that I'll never forget.
     
    Congratulations again to Brent, and this begins the start of what should be a long and exciting professional career.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    At age 24, Max Kepler has now played 167 major league baseball games. The German-born product has a full season of big league experience under his belt, and the $800k investment Minnesota made in him looks to be paying off. When projecting what he could be in the future, there's one player that I can't seem to get out of my head. Enter the Marlins Christian Yelich.
     
    I began making this comparison back in March of 2016, suggesting that Kepler could be a better version of the Marlins outfielder, or if nothing else, a very similar player. Now through 51 games in 2017, we're starting to see that come to fruition. Yelich was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2013, while Kepler check into the top 50 just once (and only among two national outlets). However, their skillsets seem quite similar, as do their frames, and the numbers are starting to bear that out.
     
    Through June 6, Chistian Yelish owns a .270/.348/.407 slash line with 14 extra base hits, seven of which have been homers. He's worked a 40/23 K/BB ratio, and he's driven in 25 runners. On the flip side, Max Kepler has compiled a .269/.348/.462 line in 2017, along with 21 extra base hits, also of which seven are homers. He owns a 40/21 K/BB ratio and has 25 RBIs to his credit.
     
    Opening up the hood just a bit further, the underlying peripherals are all virtually the same as well. To illustrate just how close we're talking, take a look at some of these numbers:
     
    Yelich- 9.7 BB% 16.8 K% 33.9 Hard% 24.1 O-Swing% 81.6 Contact% 7.8 SwStr%
    Kepler- 10.0 BB% 19.0 K% 37.4 Hard% 24.9 O-Swing% 77.9 Contact% 9.1 SwStr%
     
    When looking at their spray charts, things continue to remain in line. Sure, Kepler pulls the ball to right field a bit more, but he is also a bit more uneven in his splits against opposite handed pitchers. While facing righties, Kepler owns a .901 OPS compared to a .463 OPS against lefties. Yelich remains more balanced with a .768 OPS against righties and a .665 OPS against lefties. For the most part however, they continue to work the same.
     
    Defensively, things remain comparable as well. In 2017, Yelich has operated solely as the Marlins centerfielder, moving over from left. Kepler has played mainly right field for the Twins, but has sprinkled in some time in center. To date, Yelich has been worth 4 DRS with a UZR of 3.0 and RngR factor of 4.7. Kepler has compiled 7 DRS for Minnesota while totaling a 4.0 UZR and a 2.3 RngR factor. A season ago, both players checked in with UZR totals right around 0.0, while being worth 6 DRS apiece.
     
    So, what do we make of it all, other than the Twins might have their own version of Christian Yelich? Well, at this point, that doesn't mean all that much. Yelich is a really nice player, and he's got a Gold Glove to his credit, but the accolades pretty much end there. In 2016, he did win a Silver Slugger and came in 19th among the NL MVP voting. He's never been an All Star, and while being a household name, he's not necessarily regarded as among the best in the game.
     
    While no doubt overshadowed by his teammate Byron Buxton, Max Kepler is in the conversation with Aaron Judge defensively among right fielders. Unfortunately Mookie Betts exists and is running away with Gold Glove consideration for AL right fielders, but Kepler should be a finalist at the end. He's always going to have stiff competition for Silver Slugger awards, but he very realistically could be a 20/10 or even 20/20 guy (with work on the basepaths).
     
    Given what was expected of Yelich coming up as a prospect, and the arc of his career thus far (he just started for Team USA in the WBC), allowing Minnesota to have their own version is far from something the Twins would scoff at. Kepler is not all that far removed from a .734 OPS in 113 games during his first big league season, but as he's settled in, the height of his play has risen as well.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had to be salivating at the opportunity to build a core around Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, but Max Kepler is far more than a throw in. We're seeing him turn into a legitimate name in this league, and it may just be the beginning.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    After the month of April, Hector Santiago turned the calendar owning a 2.43 ERA for the Minnesota Twins. He'd made five starts and owned a 2-1 record for his efforts. Given the results, there may have even been a line of people ready to question whether or not he was an "ace." Then reality set in, and regression hasn't just gone towards the mean for Santiago, it's been straight up mean to him.
     
    Early on in the season, Santiago danced around danger, and has peripheral numbers that suggested his career norms were much more indicative of who he was. Despite the sparkling ERA, his FIP still didn't view him kindly, and a .276 BABIP seemed to be doing him wonders as well. For a sinkerballer that gives up a ton of longballs, Santiago had allowed just two, and had done a good job of avoiding damage.
     
    Fast forward to where we are now, and Hector Santiago has made eight more appearances (seven starts). The results have been nothing short of ugly. There's the 7.64 ERA, the .910 OPS against, an ugly 24/20 K/BB ratio, and a ridiculous 12 HR allowed in just 35.1 IP. Still compiling just a .255 BABIP, Santiago is just watching his mistakes blow up as the ball leaves the park. What's even more worrisome, is we probably haven't seen the slide quit.
     
    With a 5.84 FIP, Santiago is actually still being afforded a better ERA (5.26) thanks to the fielding prowess behind him. It's a sad turn of events, but given that his FIP of 5.31 in 2016 was present (5.82 FIP with Minnesota), there's not much room to suggest it couldn't be seen coming. The Twins hurler is on pace to allow a career worst 38 homers, and with all of the runners he's put on board, it's only going to balloon the numbers across the board.
     
    There's a lot to unpack with Santiago when it comes to his troubles. Chief among them may be just how often Santiago gets behind in the count. He's allowed batters to be ahead in 146 of 285 plate appearances on the season, and he's surrendered a ball before a strike on 127 different occasions. Because of his inability to get ahead, and the relative lack of plus stuff, opposing hitters are also clubbing a whopping 1.156 OPS off of him when swinging at the first pitch. Thanks to the results, he's struck fear in no one, and batters step into the box ready for the early mistake.
     
    Maybe somewhat of an oddity, the platoon splits have also been a detriment to Santiago in 2017 as well. For his career, righties have compiled a .742 OPS off of him while lefties have worked a .703 OPS. That number in 2017 rises substantially on one side of the box. While righties own just a .611 OPS in 234 PAs this season, the 51 lefties to face him have totaled a ridiculous 1.609 OPS. He has a negative (5/10) K/BB to same handed batters, and six of his 14 long balls have come at their doing, despite having just under 1/4 of the PAs righties have seen.
    Another underlying cause is no doubt a dip in velocity. Since 2011, Santiago has lost roughly one mph on his fastball speed each year. In 2017, he's averaged just 89.4 mph on the pitch, and with the lack of plus movement, it's getting hit. He's actually decreased his sinker usage about 4% while deferring to his slider a bit more, but with just a 7.4% swing strike rate, he's still not fooling anyone.
     
    Santiago's contact rates all remain in line with career norms, as do his walk and strikeout rates. The numbers don't suggest that there's any one point in the at bat that has dramatically changed in favor of opposing hitters. What seems to be happening is a perfect storm of a pitcher getting behind, with mediocre stuff, and allowing every instance of getting burned to be significantly detrimental.
     
    Coming into 2017, I wasn't a big fan of offering Santiago arbitration. He's making $8 million this year (which is more like $12 million given the $4 million Minnesota had to pay the Angels for Ricky Nolasco), and there was very little room for any upside. He'll be a free agent come 2018, and there's next to no reason for him to remain within the Twins organization. It's fair to suggest that other options to take Santiago's rotation spot may have been lackluster, but at a lower cost, they could've been more easily jettisoned or shuffled.
     
    At this point, Hector Santiago is a 29 year old pitcher so far removed from his 2015 All Star season, that it must appear another dimension away. His velocity has waned, the homers have spiked, and nobody steps into the batter's box thinking they won't have their way with him. The Twins are going to have to weather this storm for a while. He could be placed on the DL, or even DFA'd (can't see them eating that much money though), but there's no one ready to claim his spot either. It's a bed the organization made, and now their being forced to sleep in it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2016, the Minnesota Twins slogged through what was undoubtedly among the toughest seasons to endure in franchise history. Over 100 losses, not much competitive play, and a season that can be classified as nothing short of lost. If there was a silver lining though, it was Brian Dozier and his 42 home runs. In 2017, we're seeing it again, but from a player that's doing it his own way.
     
    Last year, Brian dozier became the first player to hit 40 or more home runs in a season for the Twins, not named Harmon Killebrew. He went from hitting 18 in 2013, to hanging around in the 20's each of the next two seasons, to exploding for 42. At points, it seemed his swing had become defiant. He was going to pull everything, it wasn't necessarily working, and it may have been a problem. He then got hot, popped off a bunch of long balls over the summer, and became the most coveted second basemen in baseball.
     
    Fast forward to 2017, and Minnesota Twins third basemen Miguel Sano has 14 homers through the first 53 games. Interestingly enough, that's a pace of 43 homers on the year, or the same number Dozier would've had without Minnesota watching a game they started be wiped out by rain. Despite a similar trajectory to Dozier from a year ago, the Twins hulking slugger from the Dominican couldn't be going about his power in a more different way.
     
    Some key numbers from Dozier's 2016 include a 34.7 Hard%, a 20.0 K%, and an 8.8 BB%. Dozier also posted an 18.4 HR/FB% and yanked the ball to left field 56.4% of the time. To summarize, the Twins second basemen generated power by being a dead pull hitter while also experiencing a good deal of gap contact.
     
    The numbers for Sano couldn't be more of a stark contrast. This season, he owns a 52.0 Hard%, and has paired it with a 37.1 K% and 15.2 BB%. His HR/FB rate is 30.4% and he's pulling the ball just 40% of the time. Sano is a three true outcomes hitter, that is hitting bombs and getting on base by just destroying the baseball.
     
    On the season, Miguel Sano is pacing the big leagues with a 96.6 mph average exit velocity. A year ago, Brian Dozier's average exit velocity was just 87.5 mph, sandwiched between James McCann and Josh Reddick. For each of the balls that Sano sends deep into the night, Dozier was scraping the flower pots at Target Field. Sano is also averaging a big league best, 241 ft on balls he puts in play. Dozier's average distance last year was 192 ft.
     
    You can make a pretty obvious guess that Sano has sprayed homers to all fields more than Dozier did a season ago. Given that the latter is classified as being a dead pull hitter, it's not surprising to see the differences in their spray charts. Sano has gone to the opposite field and used dead center more already in his first 14 homers, than Dozier did all of 2016. What's maybe more interesting is in the quality of contact.
     
    The expectation should be that solid contact is a necessity when it comes to hitting a home run. What's not a given however, is whether or not the ball was barreled on the bat. It's in utilizing the barrel that a hitter sees the long and powerful home runs. Looking at their comparisons, not only did Dozier not barrel all of his homers, but the vast majority fall very borderline on the spectrum. It helps to explain the differences our eyes suggest in just how the home run is being produced.
     
    Given everything we've dissected here, the goal isn't to classify one players as more of a home run hitter than the other. The difference however, may be in terms of sustainability, and projectability. While Dozier was primed to come back to earth this year, and likely sit somewhere in the 20's when the dust settled, it's fair to project Sano for 35-40 homers a year for the foreseeable future. Power is something that comes natural to Miguel Sano, while Brian Dozier has generated his on his own accord.
     
    Having now looked at what 42 homers looks like, and what a 43 home run pace suggests, it's exciting to see the Twins employ both a guy who's created his own power stroke, and one who is simply using the tools already afforded to him. Miguel Sano is going to destroy baseballs for quite some time, and Twins fans should sit back and enjoy the show.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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