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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    As is the case around this time of the year, Hall of Fame ballots are sent out. To Official Baseball Writers Association of America members, they are mailed and returned as such. Through the forward thinking Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, email is utilized to streamline the process. Once again, I have the privilege of completing a ballot.
     
    Before getting into the selections themselves, I wanted to lay a few guidelines out. First and foremost, the IBWAA has already voted in the likes of Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Jeff Bagwell. Voters also have the opportunity to vote for anywhere between one and 15 players, but may not turn in a blank ballot. My stance on performance enhancing drugs has been discussed previously, and you can find it here.
     
    For players I have voted previously, I will denote them as such with an asterisk. I will also be using the same explanation as the previous vote. Without further ado, let's get into it:
     
    *Barry Bonds: 164.4 fWAR
     
    It's a no brainer. The all-time home run king (762) is arguably the best player to ever step on the field. A seven-time MVP, eight-time Gold Glove winner, and 14-time All Star, Bonds did it all.
     
    *Roger Clemens: 133.7 fWAR
     
    The Rocket is one of the greatest pitchers to ever grace the mound. He's won seven Cy Young awards, claimed an MVP as a pitcher, and was invited to 11 All Star Games. His 4,672 strikeouts were buoyed by leading the big leagues five separate times.
     
    *Trevor Hoffman: 26.1 fWAR
     
    At one point the All-Time saves leader, Hoffman's 601 career saves still rank second, trailing only Mariano Rivera. His career 2.87 ERA was is dazzling, and the seven-time All Star has a place in the Hall.
     
    *Fred McGriff: 56.9 fWAR
     
    The Crime Dog spent many of his early season among MVP discussions. Despite never winning won, he finished fourth in 1993. He was elected to five All Star games and won three Silver Slugger awards. It's his 493 career home runs that get him over the top and into the Hall however.
     
    *Mike Mussina: 82.2 fWAR
     
    Pitching his entire career in the AL East, Mussina was a household name for Yankees and Orioles fans. Making five All Star games, and winning seven Gold Gloves, Mussina has his fair share of awards. Totaling 270 wins, and just over 2,800 strikeouts, Mussina comes up just short of the guaranteed numbers.
     
    *Curt Schilling: 79.7 fWAR
     
    Bloody sock nonsense aside, Schilling is a three time Cy Young runner-up, and six-time All Star. He struck out 3,116 batters in his career and owns a 3.46 ERA while totaling more than 200 wins. Three World Series rings, an MVP, and a 2.23 postseason ERA do him favors as well. Since voting for him last year, Schilling has made plenty of splashes in the media. He's not well liked off the field, but the character clause is among the most dated pieces of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. On baseball merit alone, he's worthy of the nod.
     
    *Lee Smith: 26.6 fWAR
     
    When it comes to closers, before there was Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera, there was Lee Smith. His 478 saves still rank third among major league career numbers, and likely will stand there for quite some time. Smith was also a seven time All Star.
     
    *Larry Walker: 68.7 fWAR
     
    Although he played the field plenty, Walker also turned in a nice run spending time in both the infield and outfield. He was the 1997 NL MVP and made five All Star games. His glove netted him seven Gold Gloves and his bat produced three Silver Slugger awards. Walker finished his 17 seasons with 383 homers and drove in over 1,300 runs.
     
    Vladimir Guerrero 54.3 fWAR
     
    Guerrero was a nine-time All-Star and picked up an MVP award in 2004. Even with all of his accolades, it's two defining instances on the field highlight his memory most for me. Few players have ever been better bad ball hitters, and his arm from right field remains one of the best the game has ever seen. In his first year on the ballot, Vlad is a no brainer.
     
    Ivan Rodriguez 68.9 fWAR
     
    Another first timer on the ballot, Pudge gets the nod immediately as well. With 14 All-Star appearances, 13 Gold Gloves, seven Silver Sluggers, and an MVP to his credit, Rodriguez is among the top three or four catchers to ever play the game. He did it on both sides of the plate and his 21 year career was a testament to his durability as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently, the Minnesota Twins made among the first big splashes in free agency this winter by signing catcher Jason Castro. He's not a bank-breaking starting pitcher, and he won't light the world on fire at the plate, but the acquisition sends all the right messages throughout Twins Territory.
     
    First and foremost you must understand who Jason Castro is. Sure, a three-year, $24.5 million deal for a player with a .684 OPS might seem egregious in today's offensive era of baseball. Looking at the former Astros backstop through that lens would be shortsighted though. As it stands, Castro is an elite pitch framer, and has average caught stealing numbers, which makes him one of the best commodities in the game of baseball as it stands today.
     
    In a previous piece about Castro, I said this in comparing him to the backstops Minnesota employed a season ago:
    Not only is this move indicative of the Twins helping out their pitching staff, and addressing pitching concerns in a more economical way, but the optics surrounding the move are promising as well. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are nearly combined what former Twins General Manager Terry Ryan was in age. They were supposed to embrace the new age of baseball, and welcome in an advanced way of thinking. Around the game, it was Castro behind the plate who embodied that, Minnesota who was often linked as making sense, and the duo comprising the new front office that got on board.
     
    Far too often, Terry Ryan made his mark in free agency by throwing money at need positions. When Minnesota needed starting arms, he gave ill-advised millions to the likes of Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco. When he did make a solid move, Phil Hughes for example, he doubled down and processed an early extension to turn what was a positive into a negative. While it's just their first order of business, Falvey and Levine addressed a need in both catching and pitching, did so economically, and upgraded themselves from what Suzuki and Ceteno provided them a year prior.
     
    In a vacuum, the Jason Castro deal makes a ton of sense for the Twins. He's a superior player to Kurt Suzuki even at his worst, and he checks off boxes across so many other facets of the organization as well. It's probably a bad bet to presume that Castro once again finds his former All Star self for Minnesota. Even if he doesn't though, a career .699 OPS with potential to enter back above the .700 plateau this season, combined with his defensive prowess, makes his presence a welcomed one.
     
    I'd hope that the Twins aren't too terribly involved in free agency the rest of the way with so many similarly capable prospects that appear on the cusp of production in house. That being said, Falvey and Levine's first move should provide plenty of faith that the new men in charge have a firm grasp on what they are trying to accomplish, and a strong understanding of exactly how to get there.
     
    Jason Castro is a great signing for the Twins. The thought process behind the execution of bringing him in is even better.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have kicked off their 2016 offseason by introducing new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey, and General Manager Thad Levine. Outside of the front office and coaching staff changes, the club hasn't done much with the roster thus far. Before the snow flies, that makes sense, but come Friday they'll need to make decisions on their 40 man roster inclusions.
     
    With the deadline to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft quickly approaching, the Twins will have to do some shuffling. As things stand at this moment, Minnesota has 36 spots claimed on their 40 man roster. They could clear up two more by removing Buddy Boshers and Juan Centeno. Another could be had if Trevor Plouffe is non-tendered. A final possibility, although not likely, would be moving on from Danny Santana even before he's out of options to start 2017. For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the Twins have six open 40 man spots by Friday.
     
    There's well over 20 possible additions. Remember, anyone selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the duration of the upcoming season on the drafting team's major league roster, or risk being offered back to their initial organization (a la Zack Jones for the Twins this past season).
    Now, let's get into the six I'm keeping:
     
    Fernando Romero- SP
     
    Romero is a no-brainer. He was ranked the second best Twins prospect by Twins Daily's Seth Stohs, was Baseball America's 4th, and my 5th. After finally getting back to good health, he was great for both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. Romero has a chance to rise quickly, and could see time with the Twins in late 2017 if everything continues to go smoothly.
     
    Mitch Garver- C
     
    This one is another no-brainer. Garver earned his way on to the Twins by having a great minor leaguer season in 2016. He was probably worthy of the September call over John Ryan Murphy, and he could challenge for a 25 man spot to start the season this year. He's got better than average defensive skills, while being capable with the bat. Garver is a former 9th round pick that should make an impact in Minnesota.
     
    Daniel Palka- OF
     
    Another player worthy of a September call up a season ago, Palka's downfall was not already being on the 40 man. Adam Brett Walker's skillset is very similar, but Palka's plate approach is just a bit better. The return from Arizona for Chris Herrmann, Palka's power is real, and as a bench bat or extra outfielder, the Twins could find themselves calling his name sooner rather than later.
     
    Felix Jorge- SP
     
    I think the reason Minnesota protects Jorge is that they are pitching starved and he can provide a solution. I'm a believer that while Jorge isn't an exciting top-of-the-rotation option, he's very capable at filling one out. He's a strike thrower, and has handled his moves up the organizational ladder well. Sure, he hasn't pitched above Double-A, but given his ceiling, I think you'd find plenty of organizations ready to give him a big league shot.
     
    Zack Granite- OF
     
    When Minnesota finds themselves looking for that 25th man in 2017, it could very well come down to guys like Granite. Not only was he the organizations Minor League Hitter of the Year, but he also stole 50+ bases and played exceptional defense. His speed is real, and his threat on the basepaths is something the Twins should welcome. Rather than a veteran retread such as Shane Robinson or Robbie Grossman, it's a guy like Zack Granite that should be giving starters days off at Target Field.
     
    Zack Jones- RP
     
    Left unprotected a year ago, Jones was taken by the Milwaukee Brewers. He couldn't get healthy and rejoined the Twins organization. With a new regime in place, something that should absolutely work in his favor, Zack's velocity alone should have him in the big leagues. He's a hard thrower and can generate strikeouts out of the pen. Control has always been an issue, but it's hard not to get behind what the ceiling looks like. If Jones is added, I'd be far from surprised to see him beat either Jake Reed or Nick Burdi to the big leagues.
     
    Update: Zack Jones had surgery in September to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He'll almost certainly be left off the 40 man and won't be selected in the Rule 5 Draft as he won't be able to return to action until July at the earliest.
    Engelb Vielma- SS
     
    Vielma gets the nod here over Stuart Turner simply because I don't know what the Twins plan to do at shortstop. Jorge Polanco needs to play at the big league level, but he's a second basemen. If Brian Dozier stays with the organization, he'll be miscast at short, and Polanco's defense is a problem. Velma has never been known for his bat, and at Double-A last season, he owned just a .663 OPS. His calling card is his glove though, and it's incredibly good. If he can play on a rotational basis for the Twins and provide speed on the basepaths, he's got a chance to have major league value.
     
    Outside of these six, there's plenty more deserving candidates, and it will in part be decided by what openings the Twins have. I think Jason Wheeler and D.J. Baxendale both could have contributed to the Twins a year ago, and it would have given the organization to see what they have. Engelb Vielma could be lost as a shortstop due to his glove, and Stuart Turner could be plucked because of his ability behind the plate.
     
    Beyond that, you're looking at players that would take a significant gamble, or that most other organizations have duplicates of. Lewis Thorpe and Amuarys Minier may have some real gusto behind their talent, but injury and development says neither are ready immediately. Guys like Aaron Slegers, Niko Goodrum, Travis Harrison and others are probably well represented by counterparts throughout the big leagues.
     
    The Rule 5 Draft is a few weeks away, and every year, you're not going to see someone like Odubel Herrera emerge. However, an organization's goal is to keep those they see as part of the future, and try to gamble on those they think can squeak through. Come week's end, we'll have a better idea of where the Minnesota Twins stand.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    Entering into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins might be very close to having to write off a long term organization staple. Glen Perkins is currently working his way back from shoulder surgery, and if his labrum issues weren't concerning enough, the sum of all parts presents plenty of reason for pause.
     
    After being name an All-Star for the third straight season in 2015, Perkins went on to post a 7.32 ERA across 19.2 innings the rest of the way. He recorded just four saves as the Twins closer while blowing three, and he allowed opposing hitters to compile a 1.068 OPS off of him. It didn't get any better in 2016, but a two inning sample size is hardly anything to note here.
     
    What's become apparent is that Perkins hasn't been healthy for quite some time, and his output has been lackluster at best. Never an incredibly hard thrower, Perkins was installed as Minnesota's full time closer in 2013. His fastball registered at 95.2 mph that season and his slider had solid bite clocking in at 84.4 mph. Yearly decline has take place since, and over the very small body of work in 2016, both pitches had dipped to 91.4 and 80.4 mph respectively (down from 93.7 and 82.2 in 2015).
     
    Not just a velocity issue, Perkins has also struggled to retain consistent effectiveness. In 2013, he was giving up contact 74.6% of the time. Fast forward to 2015 and that number was bordering 80% at 79.8%. He has also seen a consistent dip in swinging strike rate, falling from 13.1 % in 2013 down to just 11.0% in 2015. For a guy that got hitters out more on his acumen than just his stuff, Perkins has watched it all deteriorate rather exponentially.
     
    Looking ahead to 2017, it all adds up to the Twins having some serious questions to answer. There's probably less than a 5% chance that Perkins is ready Opening Day, and his absence will more than likely be felt into the summer. In 2016, it was Brandon Kintzler he filled in as closer, but a 32 year-old veteran owning a 5.8 K/9 probably isn't a good bet to put up a repeat high-leverage performance.
     
    The closer role is a fickle beast, and over the course of the Postseason, I noted that relief pitching is more about using your best arms when you need them most. For Minnesota though, the pen is going to be filled with a lot of youth, and some significant unknowns. Ryan Pressly could potentially fit the bill as a 9th inning guy, and J.T. Chargois has that background from his college and minor league days. Right now though, there's no slam dunk in house replacement for Perkins.
     
    I think the bigger picture here isn't who takes over when the Twins are leading in the 9th, but rather that Minnesota is going to be closing the chapter on a key cog of their relief corps. No matter when he returns, Perkins effectiveness is something that can't be counted upon. Whatever positive performance you get from him should be looked upon as a massive victory. Having stretched his career after failing as a starter, the lack of plus velocity combined with health concerns is likely going to end his big league career prior to even his desires.
     
    There's still a part of me that wonders what if the Twins had capitalized on Glen Perkins at his peak. When the San Diego Padres traded veteran closer Huston Street to the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota had an opportunity. They passed on it, Perkins gave them two years of All-Star caliber play in lost seasons, and now may be ready for his exit.
     
    Injuries stink, and career derailing ones are even worse. Perkins has been trending this direction for some time though, and 2017 could force the Twins to finally start to consider other alternatives.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. There was a ton of top tier talent, and the bulk of it was near major league ready. Miguel Sano had paved the way by making his debut in 2015, and there was plenty of youth on the way to the Twin Cities to join him. This season, the Twins won't have quite that level of prospect talent, but there's reinforcements on the way.
     
    Prior to free agency getting underway, and the Twins shaping their 40 man roster for the 2017 season, I wanted to take a look at what internal options Paul Molitor should have. Of the eight players I named last season, four of them made their major league debuts. Here's to hoping I hit on a bit higher than 50% this time around.
     
    Jake Reed- May
     
    A repeat from last year, I expected Reed to debut in 2016. Unfortunately he had a slow start at Double-A and couldn't get things consistently going in his favor. The command issues persisted for him at Chattanooga while he walked 3.3 per nine. His strikeout rate jumped to 9.6 per nine, which was a nice boost. A strong finish to the season had him promoted to Triple-A for just over 10 innings, and he was worthy of a September call up. Of the Twins relief options heading into 2017, it should be Reed who's called upon to provide a boost first.
     
    Nick Burdi- June
     
    Another 2016 holdover, Burdi threw just three innings last season. Dealing with a spring training fluke injury, and then arm injuries throughout the year, it was essentially a lost campaign. Burdi brings the heat and can touch 100 mph when healthy. Minnesota will need to make sure his arm is in good shape early this spring, and you can bet that they'd like to have him in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Burdi's younger brother Zack was a first round pick last season by the White Sox and is already at Triple-A; you can bet there might be a little family rivalry to see who can get to The Show first.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves- July
     
    The next pitcher on the list of starting prospects the Twins need to pan out is none other than the 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Pitching at both High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga, Gonsalves dominated each level. His 10.0 K/9 was very strong, and while his 3.7 BB/9 number isn't ideal, it was inflated by some clunker outings. His stuff isn't as electric as that of Berrios, and he profiles as more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but after a brief time in Triple-A to start 2017, he should be at Target Field by the middle of the summer.
     
    Trevor Hildenberger- July
     
    Hildenberger is one of the more interesting names on this list. He's 25 and not a top 100 prospect, but he's one of the better relief arms in the Twins system. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Burdi and Reed, but working as the Double-A closer in 2016, he was about as sure of a thing as it gets. Throwing 38.2 IP in 2016 for Chattanooga, Hildenberger struck out 10.5 per 9 walking just 1.4 per nine. He was shut down with an injury to end the year, but could've made the jump from Double-A to the big leagues. Not currently on the 40 man roster, Hildenberger should be added soon and can provide some punch down the stretch.
     
    Mason Melotakis- August
     
    The Twins, are least the former regime, definitely see something in Melotakis. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2016, and was sent to pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year. After missing 2015 due to injury, Melotakis pitched all of 2016 at Double-A Chattanooga. In 33.1 IP he struck out 11.3 per nine. Minnesota needs more strikeout types out of the pen, and Melotakis looks like he could be just that. At 25, he's on the verge of getting up there in age, but if he can show well early in Triple-A, he should find himself in the big league clubhouse to end the year.
     
    Tyler Jay- September
     
    In regards to Jay, there's a couple different ways that 2017 could go, and a lot will depend on how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former first round pick. He was exclusively a reliever in college, and his transition to a starter has been a process. Jay will almost certainly begin 2017 at Double-A and should finish the year at Triple-A. If starting doesn't work out or the Twins need him sooner, Jay could definitely be used out of the pen almost immediately.
     
    Mitch Garver- September
     
    Suggesting that Garver doesn't see the big leagues until September comes with a significant disclaimer; the assumption being that Minnesota signs or trades for a starting catcher prior to 2017. Garver should've seen his debut last September, and he had significantly more purpose being a big leaguer than Juan Centeno did a season ago, but he was skipped over. Should a new starting backstop come into the fold, Garver is likely going to have to overtake John Ryan Murphy for backup duties, and will likely spend the bulk of the year at Triple-A. He's solid defensively, has a good arm, and is coming off an .815 OPS in his first 22 Triple-A games. I'd like to see Garver get his chance sooner, but acquisitions could prevent that.
     
    Zack Granite- First One Out
     
    Maybe the most unknown commodity on this list, Granite is far from one to be overlooked. He was the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year and put up a career best .729 OPS at Double-A Chattanooga. He's not flashy at the plate, but his speed and defense will play at any level. In 127 games. he swiped 56 games and ripped off eight triples as well. For a big league club that has employed the likes of Shane Robinson and Robbie Grossman as 4th outfielders the past few years, Minnesota would be hard-pressed to do worse than their own internal speedster.
     
    As noted above, this list might not have the top 100 prospect types that the 2016 version showed off, but there's a lot of big league talent here that can make an impact in an organization looking for difference makes.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The hot stove season is just around the corner, and the GM Meetings have kicked off down in Arizona. As the offseason rolls on, we'll quickly get closer and closer to free agent signings taking place at a rapid pace. I don't believe there's too many names the Twins should be in on (see here), but Jason Castro is one I really like.
     
    Now I can understand why a catcher with a less than exciting hit tool might have Minnesota Twins fans down, but there's plenty more to the puzzle here. It's true that Castro owns just a .660 OPS since 2014, and that he's averaged just 12 homers per year in that span. Since 2014 however, Kurt Suzuki has just a .680 OPS and has hit a total of 16 homers. Comparing the offensive production is really splitting hairs though, the play here is on the defensive side of the field.
     
    When looking at both Suzuki and Castro, you couldn't possibly find two more polar opposites. Suzuki has averaged throwing out just 19.6% of would be base stealers. Over the past three years, the league average in that statistic is 29.3%. On the flip side, Castro has caught 27.3% of would be base stealers in that same span. It's not just the arm that separates Castro though. Actually, it's the glove the really puts weight behind what the Twins are looking to do here.
     
    Per StatCorner, Jason Castro was the 5th best catcher in all of baseball in 2016 when it came to generating extra strikes for his pitchers. Conversely, only 19 catchers were worse than Suzuki, and the second worst catcher in all of baseball when it came to pitch framing, was his backup Juan Centeno.
     
    When behind the plate for the Astros, Jason Castro grabbed strikes outside of the zone 8.3% of the time, while allowing pitches in the zone to be called balls just 11.8% of the time (6th best among qualified catchers). Suzuki generated strikes out of the zone just 7.1% of the time while allowing should be strikes to be called balls 14.6% of the time. Understandably so, Centeno was even worse at 4.1% and 17.0% respectively.
     
    It was apparent at multiple points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season that Juan Centeno had no business being behind the plate in a major league game. While Kurt Suzuki was once a respectable veteran, his presence alone is now his value to the roster as his on field performance has deteriorated to below replacement levels.
     
    So, Jason Castro is a defensive stalwart, why do the Twins want to bring him in? The long and short of it is that Minnesota needs to fix its pitching problem, and focusing on the mound is expensive.
     
    Right now, the Twins have a handful of arms that can at least be counted on to start games in 2017. There's at least eight realistic starting options at Paul Molitor's disposal, and they all provide a different level of projected output. Getting more out of them, prior to moving on or looking elsewhere, can realistically be accomplished by stacking the deck in their favor. A catcher that will steal them strikes, as well as ensure they are properly called, all while controlling the running game, is something the Twins haven't had since Joe Mauer was behind the dish.
     
    The marriage between the Twins and Castro seems to make a lot of sense at least from the Minnesota lens. With just John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver as big league options, a true starter is again a need. I'd prefer to see Garver get a shot to prove himself in a backup capacity over Murphy after how each of their 2016 seasons went, but neither are capable of being the guy out of the gate. Castro is just 29 years old, and would be able to shore up the position nicely on a three year deal.
     
    At this point, talks seem preliminary, and Castro will likely have multiple suitors. It works in Minnesota's favor that the Orioles didn't extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, and that Wilson Ramos should be game ready by May. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can look past those two names and try to tempt the former Houston backstop with a multi year offer somewhere between $20-25 million. If it works out, the Twins would be addressing their catcher issue, but it would be through the eyes of a pitching focus.
     
    Rather than spending on pitching that isn't there, this is absolutely the way you'd hope the Twins franchise address one of their largest issues.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Maybe it's because here in the upper Midwest, we operate from the standpoint of Minnesota nice. It could be that wherever Terry Ryan and his colleagues come from, they believe in operating for the benefit of their competitor. Heck, maybe the definition of a trade is a really large gray area for the Twins front office. As Derek Falvey steps in though, fixing a broken avenue for player acquisition is a must.
     
    As the Cubs reached the World Series this season, I've thought back to this piece I wrote in June about where the Twins got off the path Chicago has been on. Both teams found themselves in similar situations, and while the Cubs operate with bigger budgets, it's the Twins that have not done much to stack the deck in their favor.
     
    Prior to their World Series appearance, Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball looked at seven moves that made the Cubs winners. What's of note, is that not a single one of these seven moves includes a free agent acquisition. Of the Cubs most important and best decisions, you'll find a path littered with key deals and well scouted draft picks.
     
    Sure, the Twins have plenty to fix when it comes to their draft. Tyler Jay could turn around to be a reliever, Kohl Stewart has regressed, and Nick Gordon may not stick at shortstop. All that said though, it's on the trade front that the Twins have done absolutely nothing. Looking back, there's very few highlights when it comes to swaps made by the Twins in recent memory.
     
    Starting in 2010, there's one of the worst trades the Twins have made in franchise history. Wilson Ramos was a 22 year old top 100 prospect for Minnesota. He was behind Joe Mauer, but sending him to the Washington Nationals for Matt Capps seemed foolish. Relievers are fickle, and even an elite closer (which Capps was not), should cause some pause on the trade market. Capps saved just 45 games over parts of three seasons with the Twins. Ramos has gone on to be (when healthy) one of the best two way catchers in the big leagues.
     
    Fast forward to 2012, and we watched as Ryan decided centerfield was ready for Aaron Hicks. First, Denard Span was sent to the Nationals for top pitching prospect Alex Meyer. Then a week later, Ben Revere was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May. I'll touch more on Meyer later on, but the Phillies deal was always about May. Worley pitched only 48.2 innings with the Twins, and has become a bullpen piece that bounces around since. Trevor May remains with Minnesota, and it's time he contribute in a more drastic way. Getting him back into the rotation could help to unlock that.
     
    2013 wasn't a big year for the Twins and moving pieces. They sent Ryan Doumit to the Atlanta Braves for Sean Gilmartin, but neither player contributed a whole lot. Gilmartin went to the Mets eventually in the Rule 5 Draft, and Doumit's career came to an end due to his concussion issues.
     
    If 2013 was quiet, then 2014 was a fire sale for Minnesota. After making an odd decision to sign him, the Twins dealt Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners for Stephen Pryor. Pryor never pitched for the Twins failing to impress at Triple-A while remaining injured. Morales was terrible with Seattle, but won a World Series and a Silver Slugger in 2015 with the Royals.
     
    Staying in 2014, Minnesota made one of the deals in recent memory the organization can hang their hat on. Sam Fuld was signed after the Athletics DFA'd him, and Terry Ryan flipped him back to Oakland for major league starting pitcher, Tommy Milone. Neither player had a ton of upside, but getting big league pitching for a castoff was a nice win., Kevin Correia was given away to the Dodgers in August of 2014, and Josh Willingham was sent to the Royals for Jason Adam. Minnesota had hung onto Willingham too long, and he was nothing like the player that he was a year prior.
     
    Over the winter prior to the 2016 season, Minnesota swapped depth catcher Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka of the Diamondbacks. Herrmann had a nice 2016, but Palka's power potential alone makes him more intriguing than Chris would have ever been for Minnesota.
     
    At the deadline, Minnesota made moves to acquire Pat Light for Fernando Abad, and somehow got a top 100 prospect in Adalberto Mejia for the mirage that was Eduardo Nunez's season. The big one to cap it off was the swap of Ricky Nolasco's ugly contract and Alex Meyer, for Hector Santiago and Alan Busenitz. Mejia looks like a clear win for Minnesota, but even the ridding of Nolasco's deal could come back to bite the organization if Meyer's early returns in LA are to be trusted.
     
    While there's some up and down, the reality is that the Twins have been on the bad side of trades far too often in recent memory. When they make moves, it generally doesn't work out in their favor. There's also the reality that they just simply haven't made enough quality deals. While teams like the Cubs give from positions of strength to get better, Minnesota has combined drafting poorly, and scouting other organizations less than ideally when it comes to acquiring talent.
     
    Fortunately for Minnesota, it appears new Baseball Operations President, Derek Falvey should have some expertise here. He's helped to land Cleveland some really nice pieces, and doing so for the Twins would be putting the organization's best foot forward.
     
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  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Last night, LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune reported that the Minnesota Twins next General Manager will be none other than Thad Levine. Levin is currently working with the Texas Rangers under Jon Daniels, and he'll assume the role with the Twins under new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey.
     
    As the news broke last night, stories started to filter in about who Thad Levine was. Twins Daily's Cody Christie had Levine tabbed as a potential candidate way back in July, before we even knew of Falvey and the reorganization of the front office. Also hailing from Twins Daily, Parker Hageman found this amazing Reddit "Ask Me Anything" that Levine participated in a couple of years ago.
     
    There's a lot of good information, and you can read the entire thread here, but I pulled some of my favorites.
     
    On what types of things are asked for in big league contracts aside from money:
     
    You would be surprised what some players ask for in negotiations. Or put better, what some agents ask for on their player's behalf. Common things like no trade protection, bonuses for awards or reaching certain performance thresholds. What has become more prevalent is that clubs will ask players to agree to make annual charitable contributions. This is one of the things that inspired us to launch www.meaningfulwins.com, because we found so many players were passionate about giving back and rabid fantasy football players.
     
    For the players from the Pacific Rim, you will oftentimes see requests for interpreters and massage therapists. Some of the most uncommon things that you will find in contracts - flights for family members to join the player on the road, and by far the most curious thing that I ever have seen was one player asked for an annual $250,000 allowance for his wife to spend on her equestrian expenses.
    On using sites like Baseball Reference and Fangraphs:
     
    Those sites, and others, have done such a phenomenal job. I believe that is why you see so many clubs hiring their employees. Really the only thing that we have access to that they do not is an extensive database from our scouts. We use those sites extensively in our analysis.
    We scour the entire sites, and several others. We are not too proud. If there is cutting edge information out there, we want to know about it.
    On social media, Twitter, and the difficulty it presents with breaking news:
     
    You identified one of our biggest challenges. This has impacted us unfortunately quite negatively. Used to be that we could tell all the players involved in trades before it became public. Now, that is extremely difficult to do. Last year, Ian Kinsler found out through the media that he had been traded. We felt awful, but someone called the media literally before we were able to complete a call to Ian.
    That being said, at the trade deadline, we are all on twitter, because you may be surprised how many trade discussions are inspired or refined by tweets.
    On what the discussion points of the next CBA may be:
     
    I believe that the next CBA will be centered around discussions about a World Wide Draft and further means to keep payrolls in check on the high end and competitive on the low end.
    On analytics and sabermetrics:
     
    When the book Money Ball came out, front offices were labeled as either analytical or scouting based in their decision making. As a "younger" front office, we used to be younger than we are now, we were considered an analytical group, when in practice, we were much more scouting focused in our decision making. In the past five years, we have made significant investments in analytics both in people and systems.
    On long term contracts and big deals like Albert Pujols:
     
    I am not a fan of contracts of that length and total investment, but i certainly understand why teams sign them. Generally speaking when you pitch those types of deals to your owners, you acknowledge that the value is in the first few years, and that you knowingly will have a player who will not live up to his salary in the last few years of the deal.
    On replay:
     
    I think that the goal is to get the calls correct. No on likes the stoppages. Perhaps, we could put a 2 minute time limit on reviews. If the umpires dont see anything conclusive in 2 minutes, then the play on the field stands.
    On having a Twitter:
     
    I am on twitter, under an alias...
    There's no shortage of good information across the entire thread, but Levine was really candid and that's awesome. Having a front office that includes a 33 and 41 year old is quite a bit different from the duo that was Terry Ryan and Rob Antony. If the Twins were to be graded off of the perception gleaned from the two hires they've made at the top this offseason, it'd be hard not to give them an A.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    In my 2017 Minnesota Twins wish list I touched on the fact that I am looking forward to new President of Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey, coming in and cleaning up the 40 man roster. There is no shortage of players that can be moved on from, and the Twins must do so in order to turn the page on what was an abysmal 2016. Before he has even gotten into the building though, Minnesota began making moves.
     
    Admittedly, I have no idea if the Twins were in touch with Falvey prior to outrighting five players this week. Tommy Milone, Andrew Albers, Pat Dean, James Beresford, and Jordan Schafer were all sent packing off of the 40 man. Whether Falvey was involved or not, it was all but certain none of them belonged. Milone wasn't going to be given arbitration, Albers and Schafer are veteran retreads, and both Beresford and Dean are nothing more than minor league depth pieces. You really shouldn't need anyone to sign off on moves like that.
     
    As Falvey comes in though, the hope should be that those types of players don't continue to find their way to Minnesota. Now, to be fair, Tommy Milone really doesn't belong grouped in with that lot. He's a capable big league starter, and while he struggled at times for the Twins, there's little doubt that he can go fill out a big league rotation elsewhere. Terry Ryan acquiring him in returning Sam Fuld to the Oakland Athletics a couple of years ago was about as shrewd a move as it gets. Right now though, it was just time for both parties to go their separate ways.
     
    If there's a problem with the five outrighted players though, it's that the represent opportunity. I'm a firm believer in the idea that if you aren't going to be good now, you should either be creative or have a plan for being good again in the immediate future. What players like Schafer, Albers, Dean and Beresford don't represent is creativity or future success.
     
    It's hard to be too harsh on the Twins for giving a hat tip promotion to James Beresford. He was signed by the organization out of Australia and has toiled away in the minors for over 1,000 games and 10 seasons. He paid his dues, and on a 103 loss team, he found his time in the sun.
     
    When quantifying what the four players not named Tommy Milone represent though, we come up with this:

    2 hitters (Beresford/Schafer) 36 G 98 plate appearances .233 AVG .597 OPS 5 XBH
    2 pitchers (Albers/Dean) 25 G 84.1 IP 11 starts 6.05 ERA

    No matter how you cut it, that's a significant chunk of exposure. Now Dean throws off the numbers a little bit as he was called up as early as May, and made appearances in both June and August as well. Regardless, giving nearly 100 plate appearances, 11 starts, and 80+ innings pitched to four players that have no future benefit to the organization seems like a silly allocation of playing time.
     
    If you remember correctly, it was Jose Berrios (the Twins top pitching prospect) who was repeatedly threatened (and was) sent down to the minors after poor outings. There was talk of him going to the bullpen following some late season starts, and he had to scratch and claw his way to finish the year with 14 starts. It wasn't an isolated incident however.
     
    J.T. Chargois was passed over multiple times for a promotion in the middle of the year, and players like D.J. Baxendale, Jake Reed, Mitch Garver, and Adam Brett Walker (on the 40 man) were never given a shot at all. Each of the above names fits both the criteria of being creative, or contributing in future winning seasons, yet the Twins went with the lowest possible options across the board.
     
    At some point, a bad team has to stop giving away time to players who've shown they aren't big leagues. Schafer is a 29 year old with a career .611 OPS in 318 games, Albers flopped in Korea and has been passed on by everyone not named Minnesota in the major leagues. It's moves like these that do little to help a franchise now or in the future.
     
    Throughout the rest of the offseason, you can bet there will be more changes to the Twins 40 man roster. As players fall off, go unclaimed, and become free agents, Falvey must steer the Twins in the direction of meaningful talent at every corner. For a team that will rely upon its internal processes, they have to start practicing them at a much higher level.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the course of the Major League Baseball Postseason, the newly implemented replay system has been on full display. Umpires have gone to the headsets often, and New York has weighed in on some pretty substantial calls. That all being said, it's worth wondering what place replay has in baseball, and if it has a place at all.
     
    Now here's the deal, technology being what it is, we have the capacity to slow live action down and get a closer look at controversial happenings throughout a sporting contest. The problem is that, no matter how many experts weigh in, we still seemingly can't agree. When it comes down to it, replay it sports is being used as a confirmation or denial of an already accepted ruling. The on field umpire or referee has ruled on an outcome, and we go to a slow motion version of that instance to try and deduce the correct outcome.
     
    During game four of the National League Championship Series, a poor Jason Heyward throw to catcher Wilson Contreras made a play at the plate incredibly close with Dodgers runner Adrian Gonzalez. On the field, the home plate umpire called Gonzalez out. He wasn't wrong, but reply indicated he also may not have been right. In seeing Gonzalez slide in seemingly at the same instant as the tag, whether the call had been safe or out, overturning the decision on the field would have been a tough ask.
    That brings us to what purpose replay should play, and whether or not the current format makes sense. Given the implications of that slide, it's immediately fair to wonder whether or not Gonzalez got in before the tag. We saw throughout the multiple slow motion angles that it was virtually impossible to tell. What we did find out was that there was nothing wrong with taking a moment to look. My stance is that moment must be kept to a minimum.
     
    As things stand currently, one of the longest parts of the replay process is managers standing at the top steps of their respective dugouts deciding whether or not to ask New York for help. At some point, wasting time to zoom in to the molecular level of a play in an already long game is senseless. Home runs, bang-bang calls, and controversial, game-altering plays should be looked at, but why not do so out of habit?
     
    If there's something that takes place on the field of play in which a question arises in regards to the correct outcome, look at it. Forget about waiting on the manager, or the umpire. Have a source in New York take a look, then confirm or overturn the call almost instantaneously. Human error is going to happen, it's part of the game, and you're really only looking to circumvent the egregious mistakes.
    When Denard Span overslid the base against the Mets, he was deemed out due to his foot popping off of the base. Sure, that's a technical application of the rules, but it's also one that baseball is not better for. Having the ability to garner an out by zooming in, slowing down, and deciphering the game that closely isn't better for anyone. That's the type of replay where the system has begun to fail us.
     
    Major League Baseball has taken significant strides to make things right more often than not on the field, and that's good enough for me. I don't need an electronic strike zone to alleviate the reality that an umpire is an individual and is going to interpret his imaginary box differently than another. I don't want to see play stopped in a tightly contested game for multiple minutes to find out if a sheet of paper could have fit in the separation between player and base. When something is up in the air, look at it, and if there's definitive evidence for it to be overturned, do so.
     
    Replay is instituted better in sports with boundaries. Was the catch made in bounds? Did the player release the ball before the shot clock went off? Baseball has a significant amount of gray area, and slowing down the game to a minute level is never going to change that. Adrian Gonzalez might have been safe, but he was called out, and it's hard to have a problem with that either.
     
    Give me a version of baseball the replay is instituted quickly and sensibly. It's reach has already gone a bit too far, let's scale it back a bit.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, one of the Minnesota Twins most glaring weaknesses comes in the form of their big league catcher. Kurt Suzuki is a free agent, and has mentioned wanting to play for a winner. That leaves Derek Falvey and the Twins with some really serious question marks.
     
    The only other catcher that got significant big league time with the Twins in 2016 was Juan Centeno. A 26 year old non-prospect, Centeno was a 32nd round pick by the New York Mets in 2007. He played just 14 games for New York at the big league level, before spending just 10 games with the Brewers in 2015. With the Twins, he played 55 games in 2016 and turned in a .704 OPS. It was his only season of any realistic significance, and while the production at the plate wasn't terrible, the results behind it were.
     
    Centeno often looked incapable of reigning in big league pitches, and his 14% caught stealing rate was less than half of the big league average. While behind the dish, he was involved in 33 wild pitches and five passed balls. In general, his blocking and plate coverage ability left a significant amount to be desired. He's not known as a strong pitch framer, and unfortunately, Centeno amounts to a warm body in front of the umpire for Minnesota.
     
    That leaves just three other realistic options in the Twins system. John Ryan Murphy was acquired from the New York Yankees in exchange for Aaron Hicks. The hope was that he'd come in, spell Suzuki, and eventually take over. Instead, he put up a .413 OPS in 26 games and spent the bulk of the season struggling at Triple-A Rochester.
     
    Mitch Garver and Stuart Turner both represent options drafted by the Twins. Garver was deserving of a September promotion, and not being on the 40 man was likely the only reason he was passed over. He owns a .764 OPS across Double and Triple-A this season, and actually improved in his 22 games at the higher level. He threw out a ridiculous 48% of would be base stealers, and a case could be made to put him ahead of Murphy at this point.
     
    The guy the Twins probably hoped would be ready at this point is Turner. Known as a glove first player, Turner has just a .677 OPS across his four professional seasons. He's yet to play about Double-A, and he didn't do anything to suggest he's more than ready for a promotion yet. If Minnesota is able to commit to Turner being a defensive backup, then he could be an option sooner rather than later. At any rate, they'll need to make a decision on him to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this offseason.
     
    Looking at the landscape behind the plate, it's pretty apparent the Twins need an external option. I was a big fan of the idea that the club could bring back Wilson Ramos. Unfortunately, he got hurt again, and isn't going to be ready until at least half way through the year. Giving out a big money deal to a guy that might not be able to catch much longer is also not a good idea. There will be other options on the market, maybe a Jason Castro type, but Minnesota will need to get creative.
     
    Right now, the hope has to be that one of Murphy, Turner, or Garver blossoms, but the club can't punt on the position until that point happens. The Twins aren't going to be significantly better in 2017, but shoring up the position with more than a band-aid is something that seems advisable. If Minnesota has had a revolving door at shortstop since Cristian Guzman, they've had a black hole behind the plate since Joe Mauer.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    With the 2016 regular season in the books, the Arizona Fall League underway, and the Major League Baseball season barreling towards the World Series, it's time to take a look at what's to come for the Minnesota Twins. The last prospect update here at Off The Baggy was the 2016 Midseason Top 15 (you can find that here).
     
    As 2017 gets underway for the Twins, Derek Falvey will be tasked with getting the organization back on track. A large group of youth has already graduated from prospect status, but it's the young talent that the Twins will have to build their turnaround on. Despite no longer being a top five farm system, there's plenty of talent on the way. With that out of the way, let's get into it.
     
    15. Lewis Thorpe SP
     
    The Aussie starter remains one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins system. He has the stuff to be a capable middle of the rotation arm, but injuries have derailed his development. Still just 20 years old, Thorpe hasn't seen live actions since 2014 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. He was supposed to be back on the mound post Tommy John this year, but never could get healthy. 2016 remains a pivotal campaign for him. When right, he's a top 10 prospect for Minnesota.
     
    14. Jake Reed RP
     
    I really thought Reed would debut with Minnesota in 2016. Unfortunately a slow start derailed that opportunity, but he did finish strong with a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. He's one of Minnesota's hard throwing relief options, and there's real reason to believe he could push for an early big league opportunity in 2017. Reed has strikeout stuff, and his movement is the real deal.
     
    13. Travis Blankenhorn 3B
     
    A third round pick in 2015, Blankenhorn is already at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Just 20 years old and taken out of high school, he really started coming into his own last season. After tearing it up for Elizabethton, Blankenhorn had a solid .774 OPS in 25 games for the Kernels. He's got pop in his bat, and should continue to swing his way up the Twins system.
     
    12. Nick Burdi RP
     
    Like Thorpe, Burdi lost some really significant development time in 2016. He was injured down in Fort Myers during spring training in a fluke accident, and then couldn't get himself healthy enough to pitch with other injuries throughout the year. When he's right, his stuff reaches triple-digits, and penciling him in as a future closer makes a ton of sense. If Burdi can prove he's healthy, and hone in his command a bit, he should join the Twins quickly in 2017.
     
    11. Wander Javier SS
     
    Speculation and projection remains the key to Javier and his ranking. The Twins spent a boatload on the international free agent out of the Dominican. He's just 17 and played only nine games in the Dominican Summer League during 2016 due to injury. His ceiling is as high as anyone on this list, and if everything breaks right, he could be a star. Javier should be stateside for 2017 and seeing how he does in the lower rookie levels is something to monitor in the year ahead.
     
    10. Daniel Palka OF
     
    Voted by many publications as the Twins minor league hitter of the year, Palka came to the organization in the Chris Herrmann trade. He hits for ridiculous power and was one of the top home run producers in both the Southern and International Leagues this season. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but from a bat perspective, you might not find a better power tool in other organizations.
     
    9. Adam Brett Walker OF
    The only reason that Palka's power tool isn't the most impressive among Twins prospects is because Walker exists. Once again this season, Walker made a mockery of pitches that he sent over the fence. His game and raw power are easily 80 grade, and while that remains his greatest asset, he's continued to hold his own while moving up to Triple-A. The swing and miss tendency is real, and his arm isn't good enough to be an every day corner outfielder, but he should be considered as an extra off the bench for the Twins sooner rather than later.
     
    8. Kohl Stewart SP
     
    If there's a prospect I'm more down on than anyone else for the Twins, it's Stewart. After being selected 4th overall in 2013, he's consistently taken steps backwards. A consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2015, he's fallen off of nearly every top 100 list. Stewart is still young at just 22 and already pitching at Double-A. Unfortunately, he has shown very little ability to strike anyone out, his command has progressively gotten worse, and he's now strung together multiple seasons of injury concerns. The upside remains apparent, but Stewart's stock has plummeted. He's got time to turn the tables, and that taking place would be huge.
     
    7. Felix Jorge SP
     
    Creating prospect lists requires players to be evaluated on their own accord. Jorge's ceiling isn't as high as some of the other names on this list, but his floor should also be much more projectable. He looks the part of a mid-to-back-end starter, and he's up to Double-A at 22 years old. Jorge's stuff is never going to overpower hitters, but he doesn't walk anyone, and he limits damage. If he continues his current path, he could be up at Triple-A Rochester by the end of the 2017 season.
     
    6. Adalberto Mejia SP
     
    Acquired from the Giants in trading Eduardo Nunez, Mejia is about as good of a return as the Twins could have gotten. He's a top 100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, and he absolutely should be capable of being a big league starter. His strikeout numbers aren't going to blow anyone away, but he limits damage by not allowing free passes. Coming into the year, Mejia will be one of the first guys called upon to slide into the Twins starting rotation.
     
    5. Fernando Romero SP
     
    21 years old and already mastering High-A Fort Myers, 2016 was an exciting year for Romero. Coming off a missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Romero looked as good as ever. Making 16 starts across Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, his 1.89 ERA dazzled. He has strikeout stuff, and this season, took a big step forward in limiting walks as well. If Romero flashed what we should expect from him going forward, he's going to be a top of the rotation arm, and could be one of Minnesota's best kept secrets.
     
    4. Tyler Jay SP
     
    Ranking Tyler Jay is somewhat difficult, because the jury is still out on what he becomes. Operating solely as a reliever in college, he transitioned to a starter full time for Minnesota. His numbers were solid at High-A Fort Myers, but he got lit up pitching for Double-A Chattanooga. He has strikeout stuff, but has to scale it back some when starting. 2017 will be big for the former Illinois pitcher as it will likely go a long ways in determining the Twins future plans for him. If Jay ends up being a reliever, he could be a very, very good one. That said, even the most elite reliever isn't something you're hoping for with the 6th overall draft pick.
     
    3. Nick Gordon SS
     
    If there's someone you should be watching in the Arizona Fall League, it's Gordon. He was drafted as a shortstop and expected to stick because of his glove. Thus far, the leather has gotten worse, and it was especially bad in 2016. He made 26 errors for Fort Myers this season, and there's some real doubts now that he sticks at the premium position. The bat has begun to come around, and his .721 OPS was a career best, but the 20 year old will need to continue to grow as a whole if he's going to be an asset up the middle for Minnesota.
     
    2. Alex Kirilloff OF
     
    This time in 2017, Kirilloff has a chance to be the Twins top prospect, and he could go a long ways to being one of the best in baseball with another strong year. Playing for Elizabethton after getting drafted, Kirilloff's bat just destroyed the lague. He ended with a .794 OPS, but hovered around a .340 average for most of the year. He launched seven homers, and the power, both gap and home run, was as real as it was suggested. He's a bat first prospect, and continuing to hit will be his ticket to advancing. After the initial showing though, betting against him would seem foolish.
     
    1. Stephen Gonsalves SP
     
    After Jose Berrios, Gonsalves has quickly emerged as the Twins most important pitching prospect. Pairing him in the big league rotation with other young arms is a must. He dominated the Florida State League across 11 starts, and then was even better for Double-A Chattanooga. Gonsalves is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and is he can continue to hone is his command, he has a very high ceiling. Just 22 years old, he could get to the big leagues in 2017, and making himself a fixture for plenty of years to come seems like a good bet.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    The Major League Baseball Postseason is in full swing and we're quickly approaching what could be a very entertaining World Series. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins season has long been over, and any hopes of the Postseason were dashed nearly from the get go. That all being said, Derek Falvey coming in as President of Baseball Operations provides the organization with plenty of opportunity for change.
     
    When you've lost as much as the Twins have of late, there's plenty of areas that require taking a look at how you can improve. If I'm prioritizing what areas may be needing the most attention, this is my laundry list:
     
    Establish the youth
     
    Last season, the Twins went into the year asking a young Miguel Sano to go play right field. He's a 250 plus pound man that destroys baseballs and attempts to play third base in between. Asking him to go roam the outfield was always going to be an uphill battle, but it was also put preference on established veterans over the youth movement that this organization is currently undergoing.
     
    Players like Sano, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and a handful of others need to become the backbone of this organization. Getting them ready mentally over the winter is a must. Coming into Spring Training, Minnesota needs to be in a place where the future of the organization is capable of producing, and knowing they will be relied upon to do so.
     
    Leave pitchers on the market
     
    After 2016, it's pretty obvious that the Twins biggest problem remains pitching. They were dead last in virtually every starting pitching category, and they weren't far behind when it came to relievers as well. That's an area they absolutely need to improve, but doing so by signing more pitching is not at all a good plan.
     
    Entering Spring Training, Minnesota has something like eight or nine realistic options for their rotation. While all of them don't have the same ceiling, there's no reason to go spend on a poor free agent class to try and minimally upgrade the group as a whole. Falvey and Co. need to find out what Trevor May looks like back in the rotation, a full year of Berrios is, and even consider Adalberto Mejia. Pushing guys like that further down the pecking order for some retread veterans is silly at best.
     
    Make a smart Dozier decision
     
    Since maybe Johan Santana, the Minnesota Twins have not been presented with such a monumental trade decision. Brian Dozier is coming off the best season in his career, and the best season ever by a Twins second basemen. He was one of the lone bright spots on the club this year, and he may very well be the best player they have for 2017 as well.
     
    If you're going to trade Dozier, you absolutely need to get something substantial in return. I have a hard time believing that the Twins find a partner willing to give them a number one pitcher back. A top prospect is nice, but I think they ask should be even higher than that. The Twins didn't buy into Dozier's free agency years, and he's under contract until his age 31 season (2018). At this point, he may be a late bloomer and that's something the Twins should make sure they're aware of. I don't know that Minnesota is a contender while Dozier is in his prime, but giving him up and not getting something substantial in return isn't a good idea either.
     
    Rework the 40 man roster
     
    At the end of the 2016 season, the Twins were wrapping up what was nothing short of a terrible year. This collection hadn't done anything of substance all season, and then when presented an opportunity to get youth involved, the front office went with Andrew Albers and Logan Schafer. Adding warm bodies to the 40 man roster absolutely needs to stop.
     
    Coming into 2017, the Twins should have no less than 10 open spots on their 40 man. This team and organization can't turn a corner while continuing to bring questionable big leaguers to Target Field. There's major league ready talent on the farm, and there's more astute non-roster decisions that can be made as well. Stop wasting 40 man spots, it's something that has gone on far too long.
     
    Falvey establish his presence
     
    Whether it be new Baseball Ops man Falvey, or whoever he hires as his General Manager, the Twins new front office needs to assert themselves this winter. Make some real decisions on players like Trevor Plouffe, Kennys Vargas, and Michael Tonkin. Minnesota has a handful of players that are out of options or non-tender candidates. If you can get anything for them before simply DFA'ing them, try and do so.
     
    A year ago, Oswaldo Arcia was simply cut by the Twins. He has gone on to be nothing of consequence thus far, but if Minnesota could have gotten any sort of return, and used the roster spot out of the gate elsewhere, they should have. I'm not convinced Vargas is a big leaguer, and it appears Trevor Plouffe is without a spot on this club. Do what you can to move them before cutting bait, and if you do the latter, get it done without turning it into a drug out process.
     
    At this point, expectations for the Minnesota Twins in 2017 should be pretty low. This club is coming off a franchise worst record, and there's going to be more growing pains ahead. The offense should be fine going forward, but reworking the entire organization is going to take some time. Positioning things well over the winter is a good start though, and will only help to get the ball rolling.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    After 103 losses, a franchise worst for the Minnesota Twins, the organization has cleaned house. Well, they have almost cleaned house. Derek Falvey has been brought in as the new Head of Baseball Operations, a new General Manager will be appointed, and Minnesota will look to turn the page on the debacle that was 2016. Owner Jim Pohlad has stated that his manager, Paul Molitor will return in 2017. At this point, is that comment, or the manager himself defensible?
     
    The short answer is no, and the longer answer, well that's heck no. Here's the deal, Paul Molitor was a really great baseball player. He's a Hall of Famer with more than 3,000 hits. When at the plate, there was next to no one that could do it better than Molitor could. Unfortunately as a manager, the same level of success hasn't been achieved.
     
    2015 saw the Twins beat all statistical projections to just narrowly miss the playoffs. They were playing well above their heads, and every number suggested regression. Because they didn't prepare much for it, that regression came and popped the Twins, as well as Molitor, right in the mouth this past season. While the deck was already stacked against them, Molitor made a habit of poor lineup decisions, a "not my problem" approach with struggling young prospects, and very little to hang his hat on.
     
    At this point, the greatest defense to keep Molitor around is that he's a hometown guy, and is as much a part of the Twins organization as anyone. In a professional league that should be about winning and advancing, those things shouldn't be enough to save someone's job.
     
    Now, to be fair, the impact that a manager has in the big leagues is marginal at best. The difference between the best and worst managers is significant, but between two good, or two bad managers is splitting hairs. Joe Maddon gets significantly more out of his players than Paul Molitor does, but he;s not that significantly more impressive than say Terry Francona or Dusty Baker.
     
    With that in mind, the Twins have actionable areas in which they should be focusing on when it comes to the man that will lead their 25 man roster. Considering the youth that needs to be the backbone of the Twins future, utilizing, relating too, and developing that talent is an absolute must.
     
    When a young guy struggles, the first course of action cannot be to simply send them back to the farm and make them someone else's problem. Far too often in 2016, Molitor seemed too far removed from his youngsters to squeeze anything extra out of them. More often than not, they were poorly positioned in the lineup, and then the developmental time in between falling by the wayside only compounded matters.
     
    So, if the Twins are going to move on from Molitor, the focus should be in finding a personality that can handle the key areas differently. It's fair to wonder if owner Jim Pohlad will back off of his comments suggesting Molitor be guaranteed 2017. A 32 year old Falvey could suggest the change be made, but that might be punching above his weight class coming out of the gate. At the end of the day though, a non-baseball man like Pohald should focus on the business, and swallow his baseball comments that come from a place without much real knowledge.
     
    Assuming that the Twins do actually clean house, and go with a new manager, there's a pair of possibilities I like a lot. Both Alex Cora and Gabe Kapler seem like they have the potential to be the next big thing among managerial ranks. Rather than simply recycling names that have held the position around the big leagues, Minnesota could go to a fresh perspective as they have done in the front office.
     
    Both Cora and Kapler are former players. Cora has the background to relate to Latin players, while Kapler is widely regarded as one of the smartest people in the game. Kepler was considered for the Dodgers managerial role until Dave Roberts was handed the position, and there's more than a few teams that would do well to be in on Cora. Given each of their backgrounds, and the way in which they are positioned in relation to the Twins needs, either could be a fit.
     
    Outside of that group, Sandy Alomar Jr. may make sense, and really even Doug Mientkiewicz could fit the bill. With Dougie Baseball, the biggest detractor is his familiarity with Minnesota. The Twins have often hired from within, and it's been to a fault at times. In this situation, that probably works against the Double-A manager. If Molitor sticks around, and is then let go mid-season, I'd love to see Mientkiewicz get an interim opportunity the rest of the way, if they are going to make a change prior to 2017 though, I'd prefer they look elsewhere.
     
    At the end of the day, your list of reasons why the Twins should keep Paul Molitor includes him being from the same state, and false hope that 2015 masked. If that isn't damning enough for Jim Pohlad, it's something Derek Falvey would be well off to highlight for him. Regardless, Molitor has become indefensible for the Twins, and really, there's better candidates out there when it comes to fulfilling the Twins immediate needs.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    With just a week of games left for the Minnesota Twins this season, Paul Molitor's club has already eclipsed the 100 loss mark. This group has gone from playoff contenders a year ago, to seemingly lost without a purpose this September. If you are trying to define a lost season as it relates to a pro sports franchise, the 2016 Twins are it.
     
    This year, the Twins had playoff hopes coming into the campaign. While those in Minnesota were likely higher on the club than that of national pundits, this team wasn't expected to flop. Sure, a season ago the club was fueled by things going their way, and a good amount of luck, but it all breaking down at once was something no one expected.
     
    As the Twins hit the 100 loss mark with a series losing defeat by the Seattle Mariners, it's worth wondering what exactly the Twins accomplished this season. The two most notable developments are arguably the ridiculous year that second basemen Brian Dozier is having, and the firing of General Manager Terry Ryan.
     
    For Dozier, his homer output has been among the best in all of baseball, and his ability to pull the ball over the fence has increased his average by over .30 points. By all measures, Dozier's incredible year has positioned him among the best second basemen in the game, and has presented the Twins with an interesting decision this offseason. The next head honcho for Minnesota will have to decide whether to hang onto Dozier, or flip him for something that is deemed as assets that can be utilized in the future.
     
    On the Ryan front, Minnesota did something incredibly right for the direction of their franchise going forward. Terry Ryan had long become someone that wasn't going to right the ship for Minnesota and a change was needed. While the organization did make the right move, Jim Pohlad likely was force fed his hand as he watched attendance plummet greatly.
     
    Outside of those two developments however, it's really hard to take a step back and see anything the Twins really learned. Sure, Taylor Rogers looks for real, and Byron Buxton has been great since his recall. Long term though, Minnesota may still have some questions about Jorge Polanco at shortstop, and internal relief options may present more questions than answers. We still don't know what Adam Brett Walker or Daniel Palka look like as big leaguers, and there's no reason to believe that a group of five starters are set in stone to begin the 2017 season.
     
    As the season has worn on, more often than not, Paul Molitor has made puzzling decisions in regards to both youth as well as his lineups on a daily basis. The Twins seem somewhat stuck between placeholders and future growth, while failing to commit wholeheartedly to either.
     
    When a team loses as many games as the Twins have this season, there's obviously going to be more negatives than positives. What generally is desirable though, is a gameplan for future growth and a showing of some executable areas for improvement. Right now, it's hard to take a step back and see either of those realities playing out for the Twins.
     
    A new Head of Baseball Operations and a General Manager are going to make a difference for the Twins, but there's little reason to believe that 2017 won't feel like completely starting from scratch. For a fan base and a franchise that has preached rebuilding, the reality is that the execution of that rebuild might just now be starting to take place. The Twins will hopefully get back to relevance, but 2016 doesn't give many reasons to suggest we're close to seeing that take place.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    With the dust now settled, the 2016 Major League Baseball season has come to a close. The Minnesota Twins mercifully can close the chapter on what was a franchise worst record, but focus on making improvements in the year ahead. Before the Postseason kicks off, I want to take a look back at the good, bad, and ugly that is the numerical values for Minnesota in 2016.

    Brian Dozier launched 42 homers for the Twins in 2016. That total was the highest mark for a Twins hitter since Harmon Killebrew hit 49 in 1969. He finished with 99 RBI, which allows Josh Willingham to remain the last Minnesota batter with 100 or more in a season.
    Ervin Santana finished with a 3.38 ERA across his 30 starts this season. That's the best mark for a Twins pitcher since Scott Baker owned a 3.14 ERA in 2011.
    Over the course of the season, only 12 times did the Twins not turn a loss into a streak of at least two consecutive losses.
    Through 162 games, the Twins trailed in 139 of them. In 86% of the games they played this season, Minnesota was losing at some point.
    Against the AL Central, Minnesota went 24-52 and owned a -110 run differential.
    Byron Buxton had just a .714 OPS on the year, but since his recall in September, he pushed that mark to 1.011 (over 29 G 101 at bats)
    With 178, Miguel Sano set the Twins single season strikeout record. He overtook Brian Dozier's mark of 148 from 2015.
    After striking out 100 plus times for the first time in his career last season, Joe Mauer totaled 93 strikeouts this season. That was his lowest total since the 2013 season.
    In 2014, Phil Hughes set an all time MLB record for K/BB ratio in a single season (11.63). This year, Clayton Kershaw tallied a 15.6 K/BB but didn't pitch enough innings to qualify, so Hughes' mark still stands.

    At the end of the season, there was significantly more bad than good for the Twins. That's probably to be expected when you lose 103 games. If the Twins can take the few things that are worth building upon, and carry them into 2017, a clean slate for the year ahead remains the biggest positive for the future.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    During the 2016 season, it was apparent nearly from the get go that the Minnesota Twins would need to be sellers. Now sure, that's a bit unfair, but an 0-9 start never got better, and now sitting at over 100 losses, this team struggled in all facets of the game. The organization did make a couple of swaps that likely had the future in mind though, so how do they look now?
     
    Remember, during the middle of the year, long time General Manager Terry Ryan was relieved of his duties. Assistant GM Rob Antony stepped in and was the head honcho in the front office through both the non-waiver and waiver trade deadlines. Whether new boss Derek Falvey would've approved of these moves or not is a moot point, and whether they were worth of praise for Antony is moot as well. At this point, we're far enough out from the moves themselves to see how things have gone since.
     
    Move 1: Eduardo Nunez traded to San Francisco for Adalberto Mejia
     
    If there's ever been a fraud of an All Star, it was Eduardo Nunez for the Twins in 2016. Owner of a career .696 OPS while being a glorified utility man/backup, Nunez broke out in 91 games with the Twins. He was still lackluster defensively, but his .764 OPS was a career best. He went to San Diego to represent Minnesota at the mid-summer classic, and then somehow was turned into a top 100 prospect. Since going to San Francisco, Nunez has cooled some, but still owns a .418 OPS. Nunez has helped to spell the Giants on the left side of the infield, and has gotten to be a part of a playoff race.
     
    Minnesota received Adalberto Mejia in return, which seemed like a good haul for Nunez. Mejia made four starts for Triple-A Rochester posting a 3.76 ERA. He made his MLB debut for Minnesota as well, working 2.1 IP of relief. Mejia will likely compete for a spot in the starting rotation to begin 2017, but is probably destined to begin the year at Triple-A. He's 23 and not a top of the rotation arm, but in an organization starved for pitching, he should help at the big league level soon.
     
    Move 2: Fernando Abad traded to Boston Red Sox for Pat Light
     
    Over the course of his career, Terry Ryan had a solid record of non-roster guys that made an impact for the big league club. Blaine Boyer fits that bill in 2015, and it's absolutely what Abad was in 2016. In 34.0 IP for Minnesota, Abad posted a 2.65 ERA. He walked nearly four per nine, but that's been something he's struggled with for the past two seasons. The Twins believed he was tipping his pitches, worked it out, and got 39 games of production out of him. Since having gone to Boston, Abad has blown up to the tune of a 6.39 ERA and has been virtually untrustworthy in relief.
     
    For the Twins, Pat Light has always been a guy that can throw hard. Light's biggest problem has always been his ability to throw strikes and have command in the zone. He pitched seven innings for Triple-A Rochester after the trade and posted a 2.57 ERA along with a 2.6 BB/9. In the 12.1 IP for Minnesota through, he owns a 10.22 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and a terrible 10.9 BB/9. At 25, Light needs to hone in his command sooner rather than later. He was acquired for nothing (being that Abad was a non-roster guy), but should factor into the Twins pen in 2017 if he can get out of his own way.
     
    Move 3: Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer traded to Los Angeles Angels for Hector Santiago and Alan Busenitz
     
    Rounding out the Twins trades this year was the one that was a surprise, and met with far more excitement than it should've been. I was immediately critical of Minnesota giving up on Meyer simply to shed Nolasco's salary, but that's absolutely what happened. Ryan failed big time in overextending himself with a big contract on a mediocre starter when he signed Nolasco. In his time with the Twins, Nolasco was significantly more bad than he was good. Since going to the Angels though, he's made 11 starts to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and a 1.8 BB/9. Between getting out of Minnesota and having a better defense behind him, Nolasco has found success.
     
    If there's a silver lining in Meyer moving on, it's that he deserved it. A 26 year old that the Twins failed to develop, and Paul Molitor washed his hands of, Meyer needed a change of scenery. Since joining the Angels, they got him back on the mound (Minnesota had him not pitching for over a month due to a shoulder injury that was never given an MRI), and up to the big leagues. In four starts with Los Angeles, Meyer owns a 4.58 ERA and 9.7 K/9. His 6.1 BB/9 are still a problem, but one that the Angels seem they'll work through him with.
     
    The Twins return in the whole thing, aside from the salary relief from Nolasco, comes in the form of Hector Santiago. Minnesota is still paying a portion of Nolasco's deal in 2017, but they'll have the option to tender Santiago. Arbitration eligible after making $5 million this season, Santiago has made 10 starts for the Twins. He owns a 6.22 ERA along with a 5.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Since coming over from the Angels, Santiago has been worse across the board. He probably will be around, and in the 2017 starting rotation, but expecting him to be reliable is probably a fool's errand unless the coaching staff can get more out of him.
     
    Busenitz gets lost in this deal as merely a throw in. He's a 25 year old that reached Triple-A this season. For the Twins, he pitched in 7.2 innings at Rochester while owning a 3.52 ERA. Busenitz has pumped strikeouts right around eight per nine thus far in his career, and he's a middle relief option if and when he makes it to the big leagues.
     
    As a whole, the Twins can look back at their exchanges this season and see a slam dunk in the Nunez deal, a mediocre flip in the Abad swap, and a less than thrilling return with the Nolasco and Meyer move. When you're losing, the goal is to flip veterans to stockpile assets, but unfortunately the Twins didn't have anything to give up. In the few exchanges they did make, there was really only one that can be looked back upon as something of value going forward. It's unfortunate, but 2016's swaps could end up being evaluated upon how much move three blows up in Minnesota's face.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the past few days, it seems the talk of Twins starting pitching has reared its head again. I talked about how bad it's been recently, and it probably can't be overstated. Right now, Minnesota has the worst ERA in the big leagues and it's not particularly close. They don't strike anyone out, and it's just not a great situation. A year from now though, they don't need pitching either.
     
    Now before getting all up in arms, let's take a step back. It's nearly guaranteed that the Twins will lose 90 games this season, and they very well could find themselves staring at 100 losses for the first time since 1982. Regardless of the fact that Molitor and his bunched just missed the playoffs a season ago, they really aren't in a position to compete a season from now anyways. The most important factor for 2017 is that the new GM realize that, and construct the team with that reality in mind.
     
    Over the course of the 2011 to 2014 seasons, the Twins were in no position to compete. What they did during the offseason though was to add warm bodies like Kevin Correia and Jason Marquis to their starting pitching staff. At that point, it may have been necessary with a less healthier farm system, especially on the pitching front. Right now though, that couldn't be further from the truth.
     
    Here's the reality, the Twins already have Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson as guaranteed rotation arms to start 2017. Assuming they don't trade Ervin Santana, he'll be at the top, and without DFA'ing Hector Santiago (which I'd be in favor of), there's just one spot left. That one spot is going to need to go to top pitching prospect Jose Berrios.
     
    Therein lies the problem.
     
    Minnesota could have as many as four of the five starting rotation spots filled, and only two of them may be around when this club gets back to relevance. If the hope is that 2018 sees Minnesota at the top of the AL Central again, that rotation should be led by Berrios. Behind the aforementioned group to open 2017, whoever is managing the 25 man needs to be getting significant looks at longer term options.
     
    Trevor May's back is all but begging to go back to starting pitching. Adalberto Mejia is a top 100 pitching prospect Minnesota was flipped by the Giants for Eduardo Nunez. Stephen Gonsalves is nearly kicking the door down to be called up to the show, and he has both Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart behind him. There's a ton of inexperience and youth among these names, but using 2017 as anything but a proving ground for the arms doesn't make much sense.
     
    With the way things are set up, the bullpen should follow suit with the starting staff. Players like Jake Reed, Zack Jones, Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Alex Wimmers, and even a healthy Nick Burdi should be given significant run in relief next season. While there's some spots already claimed, putting retreads ahead of the home grown talent doesn't stand to make much sense.
     
    Now, it's absolutely fair to question the validity of each of these options (starting or relief) working out. There could be a handful of mediocrity among the options, and finding top tier players isn't an easy ask. That being said, making a move for an ace in a losing season before finding out what your internal talent looks like doesn't sound like a great ask either.
     
    If you really want to deal Brian Dozier for a top tier starter, you can probably ask around. Given that he's 29 and not signed into any of his free agent years, I'm not sure that the return is necessarily what it's made out to look like. Outside of that scenario, hold onto your top prospects and actually play them. Turn 2017 into a big league providing ground. Get the kids' feet wet and make sure you know who's capable of leading you into relevancy during the 2018 season.
     
    Prior to 2018, the Twins will likely have the same opportunity to make a deal in swapping prospects for a starter should they choose to do so. They'll likely have two more top 10 draft picks in their system, and a GM in place to actually turn things around should all be realities. Right now though, practice some patience and wait.
     
    It may not be glamorous, but the 2017 Twins shouldn't be significantly different than this bunch. Move on from the holdovers and get the perceived difference makers from the farm up. After you've gotten some time to complete evaluations at the highest level, then figure out what's next.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have just over a week's worth of baseball games left in 2016. As the season draws to a close, Paul Molitor's troops are certain to lose 100 games, and they may end up posting the worst record in team history. Although we've seen Jim Pohlad move on from long time General Manager Terry Ryan this season, the reality is that it's the bank account that reigns supreme.
     
    Here's what we know right now. In the middle of the summer, the Twins gave Terry Ryan his walking papers. They were long overdue, and they should be considered performance related first and foremost. For far too long, his approach had become outdated and the results hadn't been fruitful. After firing his head man, Pohlad quickly went on record to suggest that Manager Paul Molitor would remain in 2017 regardless.
     
    At that point, we were quickly reminded that Pohlad's expertise is solely rooted in dollars and cents. He's not a baseball man, Molitor isn't worthy of a vote of confidence, and the chips falling where they may still means that Pohlad's scope ends with the fans walking through the gates.
     
    With six home games left, the Twins have a recorded attendance number of 1,831,020 fans. That boils down to roughly 24,400 fans per game. At capacity, Target Field tops out at 39,504 fans per game. That's a figure that the Twins haven't seen often at all this season. In reality, the stretch run has consisted of roughly 14,000 season tickets being accounted for every night, while the in game crowd likely falls somewhere below 10,000 people.
     
    You can probably look at the numbers above and make the educated conclusion that the Twins aren't proud of those results. Target Field is a gorgeous venue, and baseball during a Minnesota summer and fall are some of the best ways to spend your time. What those numbers don't show on their own however, is a reality that has the current Twins club being less supported than any team in recent memory.
     
    Since Target Field opened in 2010, the Twins have never had less than 2.2 million fans over the course of a season. That number came last year, when the Twins narrowly missed the playoffs after four straight 90 loss seasons. The first two years at their new digs saw the Twins draw over 3 million fans per year, and the third year brought in over 2.75 million. Minnesota's number for 2016 though, won't compare to anything Target Field has seen before.
     
    When the dust settles on the year, the Twins will likely be right around 1.9 million for a final attendance figure. You'd have to go back to 2001 at the H.H.H. Metrodome to find a Twins team that drew that few fans over the course of an 81 game home slate. The 2001 Twins were coming off of four straight 90 loss seasons, but boosted their attendance to 1.7 million (after not topping 1.43 million since 1993) while winning 85 games and finishing second in the AL Central that year.
     
    To Pohlad, and Team President Dave St. Peter, the fact that this collection of Minnesota Twins will draw the smallest crowd since 2001 is a problem. It's a problem because it doesn't even sniff previous Target Field attendance numbers, and it gets beat by the last eight seasons at the Metrodome (which was an absolute dump). The honeymoon phase with Target Field appears to be over, and expecting to draw simply because of the atmosphere is no longer a realistic proposition.
     
    Over the winter, Pohlad and his business partners can roll out as many new food options, patios, and perks as they so choose, but without a commitment to a competitive product with a purpose on the field, the fans dollar will continue to speak. It's a great thing that the organization has decided to go in a different direction than the one Ryan was treading water in, but nothing forced them to make that decision more than the financial implications that this season presented. While wins and losses highly dictate the turnout, it's ultimately the turnout that continues to control operations.
     
    As you make your last trips to Target Field in 2016, be glad that it's the paltry crowds that have forced change, and hope that change brings the people back. A new Baseball Operations President and General Manager will be tasked with righting the ship, and if they succeed, the Minnesota Twins will once again run like a well oiled machine.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Heading into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins shocked the sport as they won the bid for Korean Baseball Organization slugger Byungho Park. The most fearsome hitter in the league was headed to a team in Minnesota that was expected to hit a lot of home runs. While his position only complicated things on the Twins roster, his power potential remained certain. As the story has unfolded, the results couldn't be more disheartening. That said, maybe there's more to it?
     
    Prior to the 2016 season, Park was signed by the Twins to a four-year, $12 million contract. Add in the additional money required to negotiate with him, and Minnesota chipped in a healthy sum for the Korean slugger. What they got in return was 62 games at the MLB level with a .191/.275/.409 slash line. Park turned in just 12 homers and had 10 other extra base hits (nine doubles, one triple), with 80 strikeouts and 21 walks.
     
    In watching Park, it was pretty apparent that his swing and miss tendencies from Korea only grew here in the big leagues. Having owned a 161/78 K/BB with Nexen in 2015, the expectation is that he would strike out plenty this season. The understanding though, was that the power would overshadow the negatives.
     
    By the percentages, Park's power showed up quite often when hitting a fly ball. Over one-fifth of the batted balls he launched in the air left the yard. His hard hit percentage wads right at 37% with a swinging strike rate that rested at 15%. A contract percentage of 67.4% leaves something to be desired, but isn't all that uncommon for a home run or bust type hitter.
     
    Putting it in the simplest terms though, a guy that nearly won his 3rd MVP in the last four years for the KBO didn't acclimate well to the big leagues. His back to back 50 home run seasons seemed like a mirage, and the power production that was supposed to dwarf the strikeouts was only visible in short bursts.
     
    What's interesting though, is that Park appears to be alone. Prior to the 2016 season, four Koreans (including Park) were signed to big league deals. Joining the Twins power bat was Dae-ho Lee (Mariners), Seung-hwan Oh (Cardinals), and Hyun Soo Kim (Orioles). The unfortunate reality for Park is that three inferior players to himself, have seen much more success in the early going.
     
    For the Mariners, Lee was the only Korean to sign a deal that included the ability to send him to the minors. He spent just seven games in Tacoma (late in the year), and has batted .261/.323/.445 in 96 games at the big league level. Lee's 14 homers and 49 RBI have been a solid source of run production as well.
     
    Arguably the best season of the Koreans this year has come from Oh of the Cardinals. At 34 years old, he's hardly a typical rookie, but on a one-year $2.5 million deal, he's been an absolute steal. In 70 games (72.1 IP) with St. Louis, he owns a 1.87 ERA and a dazzling 97/18 K/BB ratio. Having moved into the closer role and racking up 17 saves, Oh is going to be in the running for the NL Rookie of the Year award.
     
    Rounding out the group is Kim, who is probably the most interesting story of the bunch. After signing a two-year, $7 million deal with the Orioles, a bad spring training had the club wanting to ship him to Triple-A. Tensions nearly got to the point of an all out release, but cooler heads prevailed. Spending the entirety of the season at the MLB level, Kim has played in 81 games and owns a .308/.389/.421 slash line. He's not the flashy player at the plate, but with 16 doubles to his credit, he's more than carried his weight.
     
    Obviously, the influx of KBO players into baseball follows the emergence of Jung Ho Kang's breakout a year ago. Byungho Park's best friend slashed .287/.355/.461 and launched 15 homers en route to a 3rd place NL Rookie of the Year finish in 2015. He, along with the three aforementioned players, have established that a transition from the KBO to MLB is more than doable.
     
    So, what gives for Park?
     
    At the end of the day, I think that there's probably a bit more about Park's wrist than what he wanted to let on. He underwent surgery in August and effectively ended his first big league season. While he came with mammoth expectations, his power was sapped even further due to his health. Combine that with an adjustment period both on the field and off (the Twins didn't even begin spelling his name as he asked until halfway through the summer), and you end up with less than ideal results.
     
    Going into 2017, there should be heightened expectations that Park is able to come in and contribute. He's likely never going to be the MVP type player he was in Korea, but absolutely should be able to be a vital member of the Twins 25 man roster. Lesser players from the KBO have shown success is attainable in the big leagues, and a healthy wrist could be the key that unlocks the next level for Park.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2014 Major League Baseball season brought Phil Hughes to the Minnesota Twins. He was signed, and then extended, on a free agent contract and ended up being among consideration for the AL Cy Young award. The former Yankees first round pick had an incredible debut with the Twins, and in the process, set a record that didn't get much notoriety.
     
    As has always been the case, Phil Hughes is a guy that simply does not walk many batters. He's never been a real serious strikeout threat, and it's probably fair to suggest Hughes hasn't been the player that Yankees hoped they would get from a first round starter. That said, he's more than capable of holding down a spot in the middle of a big league rotation, and he can make getting professional hitters out look routine.
     
    During 2014, Hughes struck out batters, while walking so few, at a truly incredible pace. He eventually finished with an 11.63 strikeout to walk ratio, which would go down as the single greatest mark over the course of a season in Major League history. Hughes joined Bret Saberhagen as the only pitchers ever to post a strikeout to walk ratio of 11.0 or greater.
     
    Since 1884, only four pitchers have ever had a strikeout to walk ratio of 10.0 or higher. Jim Whitney accomplished the feat in 1884 for the Boston Beaneaters. Saberhagen joined him in 1994 while pitching for the Mets, and Cliff Lee rounded out the trio in 2010 as he split time between the Mariners and Rangers.
     
    This all now becomes relevant again though because the record which Hughes set in 2014, one that broke Saberhagen's 20 year old mark, could fall this season. As September baseball winds down, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw currently owns a mark that would smash Hughes' number into oblivion. With a 17.22 strikeout to walk ratio through 18 starts, Kershaw would top the Twins pitcher by nearly six strikeouts per walk. The one caveat to the scenario is whether or not Kershaw pitches enough to become qualified.
     
    A big talker as the summer wound down, Kershaw was placed on the disabled list with injury issues. There were concerns as to whether or not he would pitch again this season, and if he did, what kind of effectiveness he would have. Now removed from the disabled list, Kershaw has made two starts in September in which he's owned a 2.25 ERA and a 10/0 K/BB across 8.0 IP.
     
    Pitching today, Kershaw should make three more starts for the Dodgers yet this season. That would give him 21 on the year, and somewhere in the realm of 140.0+ IP. Should he reach the floor to qualify, his mark will almost assuredly unseat that of Hughes.
     
    While Kershaw's number is significantly higher than the mark the Twins 2014 ace put up, it's impressive to see just how the two of the compare as well. Clayton Kershaw is one of the game's best at striking batters out, and that's witnessed by his 10.8 K/9. In just 129.0 IP, he has 155 strikeouts. For comparison, Hughes pitched 209.2 innings during 2014 while fanning just 186 batters. When looking at the walks, it's Hughes that may get the nod. In over 200 innings during 2014, he issued just 16 free passes. Kershaw has been stingy as well, but has given up nine walks in 129 innings thus far in 2016.
     
    Regardless of how everything shakes out, the efficiency displayed by Hughes in 2014 and Kershaw this season is something to truly marvel. The former did it but limiting the damage he inflicted upon himself, and the latter has been a master of inflicting damage upon opposing hitters. Using history as a guide, Hughes and Kershaw have shown us something we may not see again for quite some time.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    If you're still following along with the Twins, you've nearly made it through the 2016 Major League Baseball season. Just 19 games remain, and Minnesota needs to win 10 of them to avoid 100 losses for just the second time in franchise history, and first since 1982. To be sure, a year full of losing is far from fun, but does a top pick in the upcoming draft make it feel any less gloomy?
     
    Baseball is a different beast than basketball and football. While the top pick in the draft holds immense value, it generally isn't realized at the top level for at least a year or two, and the draft itself doesn't take place until well into the next season. For Minnesota, plenty will change by the time June 2017 comes around.
     
    With Terry Ryan fired midway through the current 162 game schedule, Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Peter are in the process of finding a replacement head honcho (or, as we've learned, a duo). The Twins will have a new Head of Baseball Operations, as well as a new General Manager by the time the 2017 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft rolls around. Paul Molitor may very well be gone, and the hope would be that the on field product shows significantly better than it has this season.
     
    For Minnesota, 2016 was another year of the prospect. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and even Byungho Park were supposed to lead this group. Instead, their were injuries, failed expectations, and regression for what can be described as the Twins future. Although the offense was expected to carry this club, it was nowhere to be seen out of the gate.
     
    Now with the writing already on the wall, the only thing left for the Twins to do is finish. It's largely understood what has all taken place for Paul Molitor's club this season. What's next is what comes as a result of the final standings. If the year were to end today, that would include the Twins drafting first overall next June.
     
    The Braves currently are two games clear of the Twins when it comes to record. I'm not sure there's a determination to "tank" as there may be in other sports, but Minnesota could have their choice if things stand pat. By the looks of most national experts, there doesn't appear to be a consensus top pick in the upcoming draft. Undoubtedly there's a few names that will rise to the top, but all will have their detractors (however slight they may be).
     
    Unlike in sports such as basketball or football, it's hard to suggest that a first overall pick gives something back to such a horrendous season. Mentioned on the broadcast during the recent Cubs and Astros series, you can bet that Houston wishes they would've selected Kris Bryant over Mark Appel with their recent first overall pick. The stories of the big miss are many, and the sure thing first selection are few and far between.
     
    When it comes down to it, the Twins won't have much to hang their hats on as the 2016 dust settles. The first overall pick is definitely an exciting and welcomed consolation prize, but it will be in the hiring of front office executives, and the retooling of the organization that the true forward progress is felt.
     
    Reality probably suggests that the Twins did this to themselves. They stuck by Terry Ryan and his country club ways for a little bit too long, and it has the year ending with some significant emptiness. His parting gift will likely end up being a top three draft pick, but if Minnesota is looking to hang their hats on something, expecting it to be a relative unknown is probably not a good proposition.
     
    When June rolls around, the first overall pick will have plenty of merit attached to it, but how much excitement it generates will largely be determined by who the Twins put in charge of making those decisions.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Today, the New York Mets became the team to sign former Florida Gators and NFL quarterback Tim Tebow to a minor league contract. The assumption is that he'll head to either the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. From essentially the news of a Tebow tryout broke, there have been feelings on both sides of the fence. When considering my stance, I simply can't get over the ridiculousness of the message both the Mets and professional baseball is sending.
     
    As of today, Tim Tebow is a 29 year old that has not played organized baseball since he was a well rounded athlete at Neese High School. He's played since at The Swamp, and in big time NFL stadiums. He's been a quarterback, and now a TV Analyst. At no point in over ten years has he ever been a baseball player, until now.
     
    Let's address a couple of the rebuttals I've seen on the interwebs this far. No, I don't dislike Tim Tebow. In fact, I believe he's a better NFL quarterback than at least a handful of current backups, and I'd personally rather see him start than one NFL quarterback. Whether you agree or not is irrelevant, the point is that I don't have a vengeance against the man at all. In fact, I think he's been blackballed from the sport he fits in simply because of the media frenzy that baseball is welcoming.
     
    Secondly, there's this notion that it's just a minor league signing and that excuses any ill-advised decisions because they are (for the majority) all low risk crapshoots. Sure, there's a ton of players in minor league baseball, and a very minute amount that will ever reach the big leagues. Tebow though, was graded above average only in speed and raw power. When considering how fast you can run, or how far you can hit a meatball, teams don't typically line up to offer contracts to those that are received warmly.
     
    I'd make the argument that hitting a baseball is quite possibly the most difficult athletic feat there is. A small round object is being thrown towards you at speeds of nearly 100 mph and you are tasked to make a split second decision to swing, and make contact, with a small round bat. It's not for the faint of heart, and those that are projected to develop into being capable of competing at the highest level have significant signs in their corner.
     
    Understanding where Tebow is on his developmental curve, and the fact that he's at essentially the age a player typically reaches their prime, expecting him to progress substantially is a fool's errand. A below average thrower, hitter, and fielder, investing into him as a project could be better served with a player that may actually allow you to reap dividends.
     
    It's not at all fair for me to suggest that the New York Mets are signing Tim Tebow simply as a publicity stunt. Obviously Tebow doesn't need the media attention, but it'd be silly not to assume that jersey sales and affiliate ticket sales wouldn't rise because of his presence. That all being said, GM Sandy Alderson isn't doing himself any favors to dispel the notion that's all this is either. Today he even went as far as wondering whether the Mets may have the former quarterback invited to big league spring training.
     
    At the end of the day, the grind through minor league baseball is far from an easy one. It takes countless hours devoted to a craft you already possess better than average skills for. It's not for the faint of heart, and more often than not, it ends in heartbreak. Tebow is attacking that reality by working out with the Mets that he will continue to serve ESPN as an SEC analyst on the weekends, and he may even be on an Arizona Fall League (usually reserved for an organization's top talents) roster.
     
    The showcase treatment for Tim Tebow as if he were some Cuban superstar was amazing in and of itself. The way the Mets have allowed it to progress from there has taken an even more interesting turn. Minor League baseball is professional baseball after all, and it shouldn't be used as a proving ground to try and expand decade old skills. Absolutely baseball has been looking for ways to drive new viewers to the sport, but making a mockery of itself in the form of some participation-trophy-esque fashion is a sad development.
     
    There will be minor leagues that likely welcome the opportunity to be starstruck by the former NFL player, but if really considering it at its core, I'd assume the idea of Tebow being given a free pass isn't thrilling. There's a place for this kind of thing in non-affiliated Indy Leagues, but let's stop pretending this is any more legitimate than the farce it should be seen as.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Brian Dozier is in the midst of an all time great season for a Major League second basemen. He's right on top of the 40 home run mark, and he's doing it with an increased batting average to boot. For the Minnesota Twins, Dozier has gone from fan-favorite to legitimate superstar. The next front office in Minnesota will be tasked with deciding whether or not the club makes him a part of a trade however.
     
    While the excitement Brian Dozier has provided has been nothing short of extraordinary, it's hard to overlook the state of things for Paul Molitor's club. They will almost assuredly lose 100 games, and one most nights, competing isn't even in the realm of possibility. As has been the case for some time, pitching remains the Twins biggest struggle.
     
    Through 139 games, Dozier owns a .278/.349/.580 slash line. His .929 OPS is nearly .200 points better than at any other point in his big league career. Minnesota's second basemen has 39 homers (sure to be eclipsed by the time you read this), and has 92 home runs. He's going to hit 40, and it's almost certain he'll drive in 100 runs. Minnesota hasn't had a player reach those plateaus since 1970 when the great Harmon Killebrew last did it.
     
    Considering his value will never be higher, it's been a popular suggestion that now be the time the Twins part with Dozier for pitching. The reality is that he'll likely not be a significant part of the next solid Twins run, and he's their best bet to return high level assets. The question is though, is there actually a deal that would make sense?
     
    Let's lay the groundwork for a deal here first. Dozier is owed $15 million over the next two years. While that's far from a substantial amount, the caveat is that the Twins did not buy into any of his free agent years when locking him up to the long term deal. He'll still hit the open market in 2019, albeit at the age of 32. When considering the Twins needs, any Dozier deal would need to be focused around pitching. Already chock full of position players and prospects, Minnesota needs top tier starting pitching (get in line right?). It should also be noted that I think the Twins would much prefer a young, controllable type that's already at the big league level as opposed to yet another prospect.
     
    Knowing what the Twins would need to make a deal, there's also got to be a market analysis that takes place. Dozier is not a designated hitter, and he's not capable of playing shortstop or third base. Now, and going forward, Dozier is a second basemen. In knowing that, finding teams that either have depreciating players, or those looking to add a final top tier place at second should be most highly considered.
     
    Immediately excluding teams with established quality second basemen, those with up and coming stars, and those too far out of relevancy to matter, here's some names I'm staring at: Chase Utley and Neil Walker. It's hard to consider players like Brandon Phillips and Scooter Gennett given the state of their respective teams. Both Utley and Walker could provide the Twins an opportunity though. With that in mind, let's explore.
     
    At 37 years old, Utley is at the end of his career. His one-year, $7 million deal is done in the coming months, and the Dodgers will have a decision to make. He could stick around as a rotation player, and he's been better than league average this season. Los Angeles doesn't rebuild though, and Dozier could provide an immediate upgrade in an already potent lineup.
     
    The problem is this equation is what exactly Minnesota lands in return. Clayton Kershaw is absolutely off limits, and Julio Urias might be as well. The Dodgers rotation leaves plenty to be desired and it's not exactly an area they can afford to part with pieces. If somehow Kenta Maeda comes into the equation, or Jose De Leon (a top prospect, but still) can be had, then maybe it's a spot worth pursuing.
     
    On the New York Mets front, a perceived pitching surplus is probably less realistic than once imagine. Neil Walker ended his 2016 with surgery, and he'll be on the open market again this offseason. Sure, New York could re-sign him after his best offensive season in the big leagues. The reality though is that he'll be 31 and coming off of surgery, making him a relative question mark.
     
    For the Mets, there are a few pitching options Minnesota could choose from. Not knowing which ones would be deemed untouchable, deGrom and Syndergaard would push the envelope the most. Both Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are unknowns due to injury situations, and Steven Matz is the one I can't quite peg (while also noting he's injured). When looking at the Mets farm system, there's not a pitching prospect that moves the needle enough for me to be ok with the idea of going that route either.
     
    To summarize, I think the Twins find themselves in a situation where their current asset in Dozier, continues to be worth more to them than any other team. Asking for a one or two type pitcher is probably going to be a unenviable task given the possibilities, and settling for less due to the height of Dozier's stardom doesn't seem ideal either. There's definitely reason to believe that Dozier is a late-bloomer that could keep his production up into his mid-thirties. Right now though, he's signed for just two more years, hasn't quite found 162 games of consistency, and may have Minnesota looking for more than others are willing to feed them.
     
    Admittedly there's more options out there than the ones I was able to come up with. No matter who the next General Manager is, a task at the top of the list should be looking at what Dozier can net the Twins. At the end of the day though, if the ask is not in line with the get, Minnesota should probably be ok holding onto their newly born superstar as well. No matter what happens, you can bet it'll be the storyline of the winter in Twins Territory.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently, Paul Molitor announced to the media tasked with covering the Minnesota Twins that Trevor Plouffe is dealing with both a strained oblique and an intercostal strain. The unfortunate reality is that he'll need at least a handful of weeks before feeling back to playing condition. With just 22 games left in the 2016 season for the Twins, Plouffe's 2016 could well be over. That also means it's worth wondering if we've seen the last of him as a Minnesota Twin.
     
    Signed to a one year, $7.25 million deal this season, Plouffe will be entering his final year of arbitration this winter. Given the expected salary increase, Minnesota will likely be on the hook for something like $10 million during 2017 if they so choose to tender him a contract. For a 31 year old third-basemen who's posted a .731 OPS since 2013, that's a tall ask. To complicate things further, the organization also has Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Byungho Park all vying for time in similar roles. The writing may be on the wall. It's very possible he's played his last game with the Twins.
     
    Now, with that all being said, it's a tenure that ends with a touch of sadness.
     
    Trevor Plouffe was a first round draft pick out of Crespi Carmelite High School way back in 2004. He rose through the farm system and made his major league debut on June 16, 2004. Starting at shortstop, then moving into more of a super utility role over his first three professional seasons, Plouffe found his footing at the hot corner in 2013.
     
    Showing up first in 2012, Plouffe established himself as a capable power slugger. His 24 long balls that season will go down as his most in a single year with the Twins. Over the course of his 723 games played for Minnesota, he has landed just four homers shy of the century mark. That total ties him for 18th in Minnesota Twins history. Never an All Star, Plouffe had plenty of seasons that qualify his as a quality piece on the Minnesota 25 man.
     
    Playing the bulk of his Minnesota career during seasons in which the club lost 90 or more games, Plouffe didn't get to experience the highs of the Twins division championship seasons. Most notably during his career however has been the intense work ethic that allowed him to transform his ability with the glove.
     
    I think Plouffe would be among the first to admit his time at shortstop in the big leagues, and initial venture over to third base, didn't go well. He posted a -12 DRS at short in 2011, and was -8 at the hot corner in 2012. From there however, he pushed his total to league average in 2013 and then was worth a career high 6 DRS in over 1,110 innings during 2014. Increasing both his DRS and UZR (6.7), it was in 2014 that Plouffe flashed the best of himself at third base. He became a legitimate asset at the hot corner and was incredibly far removed from the guy that needed to acclimate to a big league infield.
     
    Over the past couple of years, Plouffe has been bit by the injury bug and missed time here and there. When healthy however, he's shown he's capable of being a good big league hitter, and has a place somewhere in the middle of the Twins lineup. While the latest malady may sap the rest of 2016 from him, Plouffe went out on a high note slashing .302/.365/.523 with five homers over his last 21 games.
     
    Whatever happens from here, both the Twins and Trevor Plouffe are better off because of each other. The California kid grew up into a very solid big leaguer, and the Twins solidified the extreme left side of their infield thanks to the work ethic of a guy who was determined to give the club more.
     
    From here, whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, the only thing to say is thank you Trevor. Thanks for being a part of Twins Territory. Thanks for committing to your craft. Thanks for always giving Minnesota the best you had to give. Thanks to you, Olivia, and Teddy for calling Minnesota home. Whatever the next stop on your journey, you will always have a place in Twins Territory.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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