Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Ted Schwerzler

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,149

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    There were to pretty distinct narratives that were expected to play out for the Minnesota Twins over the course of the 2016 Major League Baseball season. Many in the area saw this group as a potential playoff contender, and it was expected that their young stars would begin to emerge. While the playoff picture has been erased, the transition towards youth may now be getting off of the ground.
     
    After putting together an impressive rookie campaign, expectations for Miguel Sano in his sophomore season were through the roof. He was going to strike out a ton (and he has), but he was also going to push the envelope for home runs. Early results were indicative of a guy pressing a bit too hard, but of late, Sano seems to have found his stride.
     
    Fresh off of a stretch in which he homered in four straight games, Sano became the first Twins player to reach double digits in longballs during the 2016 season. Sure, his .237 average through 25 games in May might be a tick lower than desired, but his .851 OPS more than makes up for it. Over the course of the season's second month, he's launched eight homers and contributed 15 runs batted in. Since hitting his first homer of 2016 on April 18, Sano has owned an .875 OPS and has paced the Twins in the power department.
     
    While he continues to acclimate to right field, Sano has turned down the dial on the talk of him being out of position in right field. Sure, he's a defensive liability having been worth -8 defensive runs saved out in right. That mark however is better than Jay Bruce's -11 for the Reds, and nearly on par with sluggers J.D. Martinez (-7) and Jose Bautista (-5). In short, his power has done what should have been expected, in making his defensive game less of a narrative.
     
    Through the first two months of the season, Sano has been worth just 0.8 fWAR, but as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, that number is on the rise. His process suggests the results will come, and the recent stretch of power is indicative of that.
     
    Then there's Byron Buxton...
     
    Recently being recalled from Rochester to replace an injured Danny Santana, this new look Buxton may be the second half of the tandem Sano needs. I outwardly wondered if Buxton's progress at AAA shows that he's turned the corner, and there's plenty of reason to believe he may have.
     
    Down at Rochester this time around, Buxton went back to something the Twins asked him to move on from post being drafted into the organization, a leg kick. His timing has been an issue at the big league level, and while being fooled quite often, he struggled to get his hands to the ball and make contact while driving pitches.
     
    Over the weekend, I checked in with a teammate of Buxton's and questioned about his progress. He told me, "He's playing with some much more confidence. He's on everything. When he gets out, it's because he just misses it. Whatever he changed is really working. We faced a guy a couple of days ago that was throwing 100 and Buck just smashed a ball up the middle like it was nothing." Coming from someone watching up close and personal, it's hard not to take that as more than just a grain of salt.
     
    Buxton leaves Rochester in 2016 with a .336/.403/.603 slash line in 29 games. Over the last month, he's hit safely in all but four games (out of 23) and has slashed .375/.444/.682. His gap power has resulted in seven doubles and a triple, while he's also launched six homers in the month of May. What may be most promising is that Buxton has decreased his strikeout rate to just 20% of his plate appearances at AAA, as opposed to 49% at the big league level.
     
    It's fair to immediately expect Buxton to be a defensive asset for the Twins, and among the best outfielders in all of major league baseball. If his bat travels north with him this time as it seems it may, he'll be ready to provide the two-headed monster that the Twins can ride throughout the rest of the season.
     
    Sure, things haven't worked out the way in which the Twins would have wanted. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor have both made some pretty significant mistakes. There's guys not performing, and really, the season is all but lost before the summer begins. That all being said, the transition of a youth takeover is something Minnesota has to be excited about, and June could definitely be ushering that in.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Baseball and the Minnesota Twins, have watched as the number one prospect has scuffled in his first few tastes of the big leagues. Byron Buxton has just 63 major league games under his belt, but they've gone anything but according to plan. Following his latest Triple-A stint though, is a corner about to be turned?
     
    Having won the starting centerfield job out of the gate, Byron Buxton was given the reigns for the Twins. He played a strong centerfield as was expected, but turned in a dismal .156/.208/.289 slash line through 17 games. His 24/2 strikeout to walk ratio was among the worst on the club, and he was struggling to get anything going.
     
    For the mega-prospect, the problem was really just getting that bat to the ball. He owned a 26.3% line drive rate, and was putting the ball on the ground an equal 26.3% of the time through his first 17 games. With the amount of speed at his disposal, that's truly a decent recipe for success. Unlike teammates such as Eddie Rosario, Buxton wasn't chasing bad pitches either. His 28.6% O-Swing suggested he had a fairly decent grasp on the zone. The problem was, actually getting to those pitches he knew to swing at.
     
    Prior to his demotion, Buxton totaled a 13.9% swinging strike percentage, while making contact on just 68.5% of his swings. If he was a big time power guy, those numbers would be far from terrible. The reality is however, that's not his game, and eventually led to his downfall.
     
    Fast forward to where we are now, and Buxton has made adjustments that have him looking like a different hitter. Having incorporated a leg kick at Triple-A Rochester, his timing looks to be much smoother. Through 24 games, he's slashing .333/.394/.576. His average in the month of May is north of .380, and his last 10 games have seen him hit nearly .500. Buxton's new timing mechanism has aided him to the tune of 6 homers in his last 17 games, and he's found extra gap power as well. The transformation that has taken place is Buxton fulfilling the expectations that were laid out for him.
     
    While the offensive numbers are all exciting, it's the adjustment to his strikeouts that create the most reason for promise. Having struck out in 49% of his MLB plate appearances in 2016, he's lowered that percentage to just 22% at Triple-A. He's taking more walks, and Buxton noted that one of his adjustments has been to stop swinging at pitches he doesn't believe he can do anything with.
     
    Considering the outfield that the Twins currently employ, Buxton's emergence is pushing for a role back at the top. Miguel Sano is entrenched in RF, but the LF and CF spots are far from locked down. Danny Santana has been in over his head as a starter in center, and he figures in best when used as a super utility option. Getting Buxton back up to man the middle, while letting the other pieces fall where they may, is in the Twins best interest.
     
    The Georgia native hasn't been on the farm too terribly long, but it would appear he's made significant strides and figured something out. A return to the Twins as they come back home to play the Rays on June 2nd would seem to make a lot of sense. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor want to see this version of Byron Buxton helping the Twins, and it sure seems like he's got the right approach to make that happen.
     
    It's a rare occasion when a guy comes up and gets it right away. Sometimes the process is a bit slower of a transition than you would hope. In reality though, Buxton is a 22 year old future superstar, and it may very well be that the third time is the charm.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2016 Minnesota Twins are an absolute dumpster fire. Through 45 games, they own an 11-34 record, and there's really no reason to believe there will be a significant change any time soon. What seemed possible to be a second straight exciting season for the Twins has turned into nothing short of a nightmare. At the middle of it all is their newly appointed leader, Brian Dozier.
     
    Recently, I touched on the defiance of Dozier's approach at the plate, and how it's there that his leadership has failed the Twins the most. Deciding that everything has to be yanked to left field has not only hurt himself, but has done in his 24 teammates as well. Upon further consideration however, there's significantly more to Dozier's story.
    I think Brian Dozier was the sellout that he needed to be, and the one the Twins so desperately wanted.
     
    Minnesota made Dozier an 8th round selection out of Southern Mississippi in the 2009 Major League Baseball draft. He was anything but a slam dunk, but had nice projectables being taken in the top 10 rounds. Without the fanfare that follows first round picks, Dozier's grind started from day one.
     
    From 2009 (his age 22 season) up until 2011 (then 24) Dozier hit for average. He slashed .349/.414/.422 in his pro debut at the Rookie level, then turned in a .275/.350/.349 performance at High and Low A the next season. Upon finishing out at Fort Myers and reaching Double-A New Britain in 2011, he totaled a .320/.399/.491 slash line. His professional career to this point was one of a high average shortstop that got on base and collected plenty of doubles.
     
    After a strong spring training in 2012, and with a Twins team desperate for a breath of fresh air, Dozier saw his opportunity. He started the first 28 games of the 2012 season with Rochester slashing .276/.339/.371. In turn, it led to his MLB promotion for the Twins. During his rookie season, Dozier slashed .234/.271/.322 and played all 83 of his games for Minnesota at shortstop. He made 15 errors, wasn't a fit for the role, and was sent packing.
     
    Now, before we move forward, we have to take a minute to look back again. As a minor leaguer, from 2009 to 2012, Brian Dozier played in 365 games on the farm. Across that action, he hit a total of 16 home runs, and never picked up more than 9 (in 2011 between Fort Myers and New Britain). During his rookie season for the Twins, his total was six, in just 84 games. Something had changed.
     
    As a big leaguer, Dozier worked with an approach that was seemingly the opposite of what he rose through the minors with. No longer a high average guy, and sacrificing some of his on base skills, he'd transitioned his game to play with power. Becoming a dead pull hitter, Dozier saw balls begin to fly over the fence. As his career has gone on, that approach has only become more drastic. Here are his pull percentages in the big leagues:
    2012- 39.6%
    2013- 42.0%
    2014- 53.8%
    2015- 60.2%
    2016- 50.8%

    Starting in 2012, Dozier went from hitting 6 home runs to, 18, 23, and then 28 (he has four through the first 45 games of 2016). What took place was a hitter that went from being ok with something that worked, to an approach that he was determined to make work. In fact, it absolutely did.
     
    In becoming a dead pull hitter, Dozier harvested power he'd never displayed at any point in his career previously. He now looked the part of a 20/20 hitter, and could lay claim to being one of the Twins greatest power threats. Despite the fall in average, he'd elevated himself to be among the best hitters at his new position, second base, in the big leagues. The culmination of his efforts came to a head in the summer of 2014.
     
    Snubbed from the All Star game despite looking like a logical candidate, he was instead selected to participate in the Home Run Derby. Taking place at Target Field, and with 18 homers to his credit, it was far too good of an opportunity to pass up. Unsurprisingly, he didn't hang with the likes of Yoenis Cespedes and Todd Frazier, totaling just two homers in the contest. The event though, brought forth his gain, and the Twins fall.
     
    On March 24, 2015 the Twins signed Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20 million contract extension. They bought out his arbitration years, and did so with a power hitting second basemen almost certainly going to cost them more in the long run. The problem though, was that only would be true if the production continued.
     
    In believing, and making himself out to be a home run hitter, Dozier elevated his career beyond where it may have went, but also likely shortened it significantly. Now still a dead pull hitter seemingly lost on the possibility of using the other field, his ineptitude at the plate has the Twins on the hook for $15 million over the next two years. Pitcher's aren't allowing Dozier to be the hitter he created, and thus far he's failed to adjust.
     
    A one time average and gap power guy, Dozier became enamored with the long ball. It allowed him to land a nice contract, he secured the right side of the Twins infield for the better part of the past four years, and it may have elevated his career to heights he never could have imagined. When things crash though, they do so hard.
     
    At the end of the day, I can't find any reason to fault Dozier for taking the approach at the plate that he has over the past few years. In fact, it's even hard to fault him for failing to adjust as he has in 2016, and may very well continue in the future. If there's fault to be had here, it's on the Twins. While the cost certainty of the contract extension may have looked nice initially, understanding that such a drastic change in approach may not be sustainable was an oversight, and one that could be incredibly costly.
     
    Minnesota could still very easily trade Dozier. He doesn't have no-trade protection, and his contract is relative peanuts in comparison to the going rate of a guy one year removed from an All Star appearance. That said, whether playing at Target Field or not, whoever employs Brian Dozier has to bank significantly on him continuing to get mistake pitches into his thirties, because the days of pitcher's allowing him to sell out and pull pitches into the left field seats appear to be over.
     
    Had things gone differently, Brian Dozier may have had a similar career arc to that of a guy like James Beresford. A good minor league hitter that hits for average but doesn't do anything to an extraordinary level. Instead, Dozier capitalized on his moment; it gave him his rise, and now will likely contribute to his fall as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    When Torii Hunter decided to retire following the 2015 Major League Baseball season, he did the Twins a favor. Despite losing a solid clubhouse presence, Minnesota wasn't going to be forced into making the mistake of signing an aging replacement level player to another lucrative deal simply because of who he was. What the decision did however, was to force Minnesota to come up with another form of leadership. Brian Dozier quickly jumped at the opportunity, but his defiance has helped him to fall short.
     
    There's no denying Brian Dozier has had a horrible 2016 for the Minnesota Twins. It's May 24, and he's batting below the Mendoza Line. His offensive production has been non-existent, and the 2015 All Star caliber player looks like a thing of the past. In leading however, none of that matters. The only thing that's held Dozier back from being a capable leader is himself.
     
    While scuffling on his own, Dozier could be doing all of the right things, saying all of the right things, and providing the example for an 11-33 team looking to right the ship. Unfortunately, seemingly everything he has done has been of the exact opposite.
     
    Recently, Mike Bernardino of the Pioneer Press caught up with Twins General Manager Terry Ryan. He suggested, “We’ve got to fix him,” the Twins’ general manager said Sunday. “We’ve got to fix Brian Dozier.” In hearing of Ryan's comments, Dozier shook his head and offered this to Bernardino, “To be honest with you, I probably feel better than I have my whole career.” At some point, Brian Dozier has to come to grips with the problem he's created and become.
     
    Back in March of 2015, Fangraphs wrote a piece on the Twins locking up Brian Dozier through his arbitration years. In doing so, there's some pretty damning quotes that have come full circle. In looking at his pull tendencies, the piece states, "Extreme pulling is generally a hallmark of a player harvesting power near the end of a career, when it’s basically all that he has left in his offensive game...Dozier didn’t become an extreme puller to extend his major league career; he did so just to have one, at least as a regular, in the first place."
     
    After not only breaking down his extreme pull tendencies, but trying to equate what it means for his career going forward, the piece then offered up what may be next for the Twins second basemen. "Unfortunately for such hitters, extreme pulling is quite often their last adjustment. Dozier has not shown an ability to hit a ball even reasonably hard the other way in the air, on a line, or on the ground. Pitchers are going to pitch him away, and all Dozier is going to be able to do is draw a walk……for a little while at least, until that skill begins to decline as his ability to inflict damage erodes."
     
    In summary, the Fangraphs piece ends with a good walk away point of where we have seen Brian Dozier at in 2016. "Every club needs Brian Doziers in their system. He is an overachiever who has constantly figured it out as he has advanced, through college, into the minors, and then into the major leagues. To become a starter at that level and have some success, he has had to totally sell out to the short term fruits of extreme pulling. Pitchers are now likely to have the last word." And now, that allows us to look at today.
     
    It's been quite the recipe for disaster when it comes to Dozier in 2016. His 26.6% hard hit rate ranks as the worst mark of his career, save for his rookie season. While his pull percentage rests at just 50.8% (down roughly 10% from 2015) his 12.9% opposite field usage is the lowest total of his career. When we look at the actual placement of things, the numbers become obviously apparent.
     
    As was predicted in the Fangraphs piece, and could have been assumed per Dozier's approach, pitcher's have had their way with the Twins second basemen. His strike zone has been almost exclusively attacked on the outer third, and he's been the one who's failed to adjust.
     
    When considering where the ball is being pitched, Dozier's balls in play should tell a story of a player who finds success going to the right centerfield gap, right field, and occasionally back up the middle. Looking at both his spray chart and his heat map, nearly the exact opposite is true. Opposing pitcher's are begging Brian Dozier to find success in their pitches on the outside half, and he's doing absolutely everything in his power to run from it.
     
    At the end of the day, this is how and where Brian Dozier's leadership is failing the Twins the most. Regardless of the results, his process is broken. He's spoken out publicly about his lack of desire to change his approach, and nothing he's done at the plate suggests he's stepping down from it. It's hard to fault him however, as it is the power and pull tendencies that make him anything more than a replacement level player in the first place, but now with the book out on him, he has to give in and reinvent himself.
     
    Just 29 years old, we may have seen the best of Brian Dozier. Prior to being dictated at the plate, he used his last ditch effort to string together some really nice production for the Twins. The story is not yet over for Dozier and the Twins, but the ending absolutely can't and won't be the same as the beginning. Either the Mississippi native needs to decide he wants to rework things and contribute in some form or fashion for the duration of his contract, or he becomes another player that was and no longer is.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, and the images of Dozier's results, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    When you look back at a team that has started the Major League Baseball season 10-29 through their first 39 games, there's going to be very few positives. Through the first month for the Twins, one of the brightest spots was the resurgence of Joe Mauer. What is becoming a bit more clear to me though is that it wasn't a resurgence at all, but rather a player being allowed to thrive.
     
    Stick with me here, and let's take a look back at Joe Mauer over the past two seasons.
     
    To start the 2016 campaign, Joe played in all 24 of the Twins games. He started 23 of those, while playing eight innings during an extra inning contest against the Nationals in his lone day off. During that timeframe, he slash .321/.453/.440 while ripping five doubles and owning an impressive 20/9 walk to strikeout ratio.
     
    Through the first month, Mauer's .453 on-base percentage paced the big leagues, and it appeared as though he knew the strike zone better than the men behind the dish dictating it to him. He battled through long at bats and forced pitchers to come to him. Looking at the sum of his results, Mauer appeared to be the ideal leadoff hitter for the Twins.
     
    Then the calendar flipped to May. Minnesota has now played 15 contests in the month, and while Mauer has started 13 of them, he played nine innings in relief in one, while pinch hitting in the other. What essentially equated to 39 straight games, Mauer put together a paltry .182/.262/.255 slash line while owning a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio. His plate vision has almost reversed, while his gap power has been sapped to the tune of a lone double. What's different? Maybe nothing but time.
     
    We've seen this before with Mauer though, and we don't have to go back far. In April 2015, Mauer owned a .318/.392/.412 slash line along with a 14/11 K/BB ratio while starting each of the Twins first 22 games. He followed that up by starting 16 of 17 games in May from the 1st through the 19, and his line during that time dipped to .234/.269/.297 with a 15/3 K/BB ratio. That looks again like fatigue set in for the Twins local product.
     
    In trying to give the theory a little more legs, I looked through Mauer's splits by month a year ago. Following April, his next best month was July. After owning .240 averages in May and June, Mauer's slash line rebounded to .298/.340/.426 during July. His strikeout to walk ratio still wasn't great at 17/6 but it wasn't in line with his ugly May. During July 2015, Mauer was given two days off starting 23 of 25 games. He was also lifted in the 6th inning once.
     
    So, it would seem to appear that at 33 years old, Mauer isn't the same youthful athlete he may have been at 23. Ok, in all fairness though, there's some credibility to the idea that Mauer's second month decline (and longer at times) could be to the fact that he's not giving his body enough rest throughout the season.
     
    Last season, Mauer played in 158 of the Twins 162 games and owned a career worst .265/.338/.380 slash line. Prior to that 158 game career high, Mauer had never played in more than 147 games for the Twins (2012). In his first season as a full time first basemen, Mauer played just 120 games for the Twins, but he did deal with injuries at times. When he was a perennial MVP candidate and All Star from 2006-10, Mauer solidly averaged 134 games a season (split behind catcher and designated hitter).
     
    I'm not sure there's ever a fair way to quantify a guy being over extended for sure, but one thing is certain, Mauer's slide has come as the season has drawn on. He doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to bow out of action, so the responsibility to protect him while also getting the most out of him should fall on his manager. If Mauer takes a day or two off a month, a production boost could be a welcomed by product.
     
    What Mauer did during the opening salvo of the 2016 season was incredibly impressive. His approach, eye, and results were among the best of his career. I want to see that again, and while it may or may not be fatigue related, experimenting to get a guy to cease from slashing .266/.383/.367 is a worthy cause.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    he slog through the 2016 Major League Baseball season has continued for the Minnesota Twins. After yet another loss, the club sits at 10-27, while being more than 13 games back in the AL Central division. Paul Molitor's club looks as lost as he does at times, and there's plenty of blame to go around. At this point, what the Twins need to do is stop compounding their own mistakes.
     
    Recently hired by Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman penned a piece that I have to imagine has been a long time coming. Hardball Talk wasn't ever going to be the avenue for such a dissection, but his focus on Terry Ryan and the Twins was a worthy entrant into his new venture. You can the read piece in its entirety here.
     
    While the highlights, err lowlights, of the article touched on the mediocrity that has been Terry Ryan's career, there was a key point that stuck out to me. Gleeman writes, "The question is not whether a Ryan-led organization can successfully rebuild and return to contender status within the next 2-3 years, but rather whether Twins fans should want Ryan and his right-hand men leading the organization when that happens." There probably couldn't be a better summary of where the Twins currently find themselves at.
    Through the first month and a half of the big league season, we've looked on as Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan's pick to replace Ron Gardenhire, has looked all but inept in year two. He's stunted prospects at the big league level, afforded oddly long leashes to struggling players, and has been overmatched by his counterparts in picking his spots more often than not. Whatever good graces Molitor created a season ago, have all but come to cease as he's now the owner of a 93-106 record (.467 winning %).
     
    It's a nice concept to suggest that the Twins be afforded the luxury of hope, or benefit of the doubt. It's fair to suggest that Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor could potentially right the ship if given enough time. It's maybe even fair to suggest that we may be a bit premature on suggesting a need for change. The reality is though, can you really make an argument against any of those things?
     
    Ryan has fumbled his was through nearly 20 years as GM of the Twins, yet has virtually nothing to show for it. His heralded farm system is a by-product of his shrewd scouting ability, but that is really where his expertise ends. You'd be hard pressed to find a prospect that turned out as expected not named Joe Mauer, and are we actually going to suggest that Ryan is the man to get the most out of what is to come?
     
    That brings us full circle on Molitor, who's continued to show an inability to understand, relate, and grow his youth. Alex Meyer, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Michael Tonkin, even Byron Buxton at times have been the unfortunate recipients of Molitor's lack of a plan. Considering this roster and team is going to need to be a reflection of the youth performing in a return to relevance, Molitor has done very little to suggest he's capable of fostering that.
     
    Sweeping changes mid season are never easy, and they're rarely suggested. I'm not sure there's any saving 2016, and frankly I don't expect that to be the case. I haven't been on board with moving on from this group quite yet, but that notion is becoming harder than ever to get over. If Minnesota is serious about capitalizing on the talent they've stockpiled, changes sooner rather than later need to be made.
     
    The big league club needs a manager that can relate to its core, a youthful group, while holding them accountable. It's maybe fair to assume that Doug Mientkiewicz, the man that's dealt with many of these kids on the farm, would be capable of the job. He was a runner up to Molitor in the 2015 selection process, and is likely going to be given his due by someone at the highest level. It'd be quite the organizational shift to move on from a "one of us" type in Molitor mid-season, but it's the "Twins Way" that needs to be distanced from.
     
    On the GM front, Ryan makes things a bit trickier. There's a ton of moving pieces when it comes to the head man, and with the season underway, rocking the boat that heavily could cause it to tip. I'm not sure if I'm more for allowing a new GM to pick his guy, or wanting to usher Ryan out at the most immediate moment. Regardless of how any GM change is handled, I firmly believe that Minnesota is not capable of winning with Ryan at the helm, and equally incapable should his replacement come from within.
    At the end of the day, it's time for the Twins to begin asking themselves a pretty simple question. Based upon what you've see from a GM and Manager with winning percentages in the .400's and roster moves that make you scratch your head more often than not, is this really the duo you want to put faith in returning the Twins to relevance?
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have had a multitude of issues to start the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and it really shouldn't be lost on anyone that the catcher position is one of them. Between Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy, neither has done anything to clarify things for Minnesota moving forward. If the club is going to be competitive in 2017, allowing the role to be a black hole can't continue to happen.
     
    Despite the unlikely emergence of Juan Centeno in his brief stint with the big league club, it's pretty unfair to tab him as a future answer. Suzuki is in the final year of his time with the Twins, and would need over 485 plate appearances for his 2017 option to vest (he's currently on pace for 356). Considering Terry Ryan gave the Hawaiian an extension after an out-of-nowhere All Star first half in 2014, a fall in production should've been all but expected.
     
    Through the club's first 35 games, Suzuki has played in 23 contests. He owns a horrid .191/.250/.265 slash line and has logged just four extra base hits. His 23% caught stealing rate once again falls well below the 32% league average, and he's rarely been known as a pitcher's friend in the framing department. Playing a position generally acceptable to be heavily an offensive or defensive asset, Suzuki has mastered being neither at this point.
     
    Behind him, John Ryan Murphy has done little for Minnesota as well. The return from the Yankees for former Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks, Murphy played in just 11 games for the Twins prior to being demoted to Triple-A. He owns a .075/.119/.100 slash line on the year and picked up just a lone extra base hit in 44 plate appearances.
     
    It's far from doom and gloom for Murphy however. At just 25 years old, he's got plenty of promise still tied to him. He's a years removed from slashing .277/.327/.406 in 67 games with the Yankees. He's not a huge power threat, but his .734 OPS in 2015 shows he capable of being much more than a guaranteed out in a big league lineup. Expecting him to be back up with the Twins in 2016, and when given some consistent run, produce, seems like a pretty solid bet.
     
    What's hard to suggest however, is asking the Twins to go into the 2017 slate in the same fashion they entered this year. It's probably fair to call Murphy a relative question mark next season regardless of how the year plays out. That would mean Minnesota would likely be carrying John Ryan as their starter, with top catching prospect Stuart Turner in a backup role. As of right now, neither Turner nor Mitch Garver (the Twins second best catching prospect) have played above Double-A. Both have flashed offensively at points, but leave plenty to be desired. Turner is MLB ready defensively, but the Twins probably aren't in position for another Drew Butera at this point.
     
    That turns our focus to free agency, and begs us to wonder what may be a realistic solution. It probably stings a little, but a former Twins prospect could be in the cards.
     
    Enter Wilson Ramos.
     
    Currently playing for $5.35 million with the Nationals, Ramos is set to his the market. He could be brought back to Washington, but if the Twins have an opportunity to give him a look, it's hard to argue against that they should.
     
    Ramos will be 29 years old in August. He's caught just shy of 500 games throughout his seven year major league career to date, and he's had durability issues having played over 100 games just twice in his career. The expectation would be that Ramos would be looking for his payday, but if Minnesota can nab him on a two-year deal and slightly overpay, it's an avenue I'd consider.
     
    With 27 games under his belt in 2016, Ramos owns a .350/.387/.540 slash line for the Nationals. He's clubbed four homers, and has 11 total extra base hits in 100 at bats. His 1.1 fWAR puts him on pace to set a career high easily (currently 2.6 fWAR in 2011), and it would push him into the upper tier among catchers in the big leagues.
     
    I'd absolutely be weary of signing another long term deal for a guy behind the plate if I'm the Twins. Suzuki had plenty of warning signs that Twins management ignored when giving him his extension. Ramos is far from without his own issues, but if you can get him on a deal that makes sense, it's hardly unfair to expect him to allow John Ryan Murphy to blossom on his own time, while giving Turner or Garver a bit more proving time down on the farm.
     
    Looking back at how the Twins have rounded out 25 man rosters, they haven't had an ideal catching option since they lost their superstar to a brain injury, and before that, when Ramos himself was the answer. I'd wager it's far from unfair to suggest he may be that ideal option once again.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Twins having 33 games under their belt, the club has won just eight contests. They've been swept in a series seven times thus far, and the reality of the situation has gone from dire to laughable. While I don't contend that either Paul Molitor or Terry Ryan are the best for the organization going forward, a change there doesn't handle the issues at present. So, how do you fix the Twins?
     
    In an attempt to salvage the most out of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later.
     
    Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario
     
    I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question as to why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable.
     
    Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy that hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now also compounding problems is that Rosario has posted a negative Defensive Runs Saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield.
     
    He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears.
     
    Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him
     
    Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day.
     
    Arcia is always going to struggle versus lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well.
     
    You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense.
     
    Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler
     
    It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be to poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that.
     
    Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rates are reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano.
     
    In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time.
     
    Note that this is move three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June.
     
    Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco
     
    This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level.
     
    Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster.
     
    It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity.
     
    Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer
     
    This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded problems is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan.
     
    Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent).
     
    Along with Meyer, flame throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester.
     
    For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club.
     
    At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (spare Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    As the Twins continue their 2016 tailspin, things have gotten to ridiculous measures. Not only are the Twins now officially the worst team in baseball thanks to their 8-25 record, but they don't appear to have any immediate fixes. While the club as as a whole has struggled, one of the lone bright spots has been Minnesota staple Joe Mauer. Considering he's often the unfair punchline, it's worth considering that it's the Minnesota native the Twins might have failed most.
     
    Whether you follow local blogger Aaron Gleeman on Twitter or not, there's no such thing as a peruse through his mentions without seeing distaste for Mauer. Whether it be because he doesn't hit enough home runs, isn't loud enough, or frankly isn't Bryce Harper, the casual Twins fan likes to use him as a punching bag for everything wrong with the organization.
     
    It's become nearly impossible to escape the silly thought that signing Mauer to an 8 year, $184 million contract was a bad decision, but the reality says that may have been the only positive one the Twins have made of late.
    Following an MVP season, and then another in which he was in consideration, the Twins gave the hometown hero the lucrative deal. Not only did it make sense from the marketing standpoint, but Mauer was easily among the best catcher's to ever play the game. He was a surefire Hall of Famer, he was one of the best hitters ever at any position, and he stood for everything the Twins wanted to tie themselves to.
     
    Then it happened. A concussion and subsequent injuries sapped Mauer's career arc from becoming what it was destined to be. He sat out much of 2011, and despite going on to be an All Star again in 2013 and 2013, he became a shell of the player he once was. No longer a catcher full time, Mauer had to reinvent himself. He was never the home run hitter the Metrodome made him out to be in 2009, but he had to completely change his approach as a whole. What once was such a certainty became anything but.
     
    That brings us to where we are today. Whether it be the further distance from the brain trauma he suffered, or the successful experiment with sunglasses, Mauer is back to being one of the most productive hitters in the big leagues. He's dictated counts, he's worked the zone, and his .424 on base percentage leads the league (and has also FINALLY gotten the Twins to use him as their leadoff man).
     
    Maker's approach at the plate in 2016 has been nothing short of a revelation. His 37% hard hit rate is the best he's seen since 2013, and ranks in the top echelon of his numbers of the entirety of his career. On the season, he's swung and missed just 3.5% of the time, which ranks second all time among his career numbers. He's near 90% contact rate is truly remarkable, and he's chasing pitches out of the zone just 18.5% of the time (the best we've seen from him since 2008).
     
    If you've watched the Twins at all in 2016, you know that Mauer has been nothing short of great, that's really not the point here. Instead, the issue is that the Twins did what they should have done in locking Mauer up with a mega deal, but then decided to say they were done.
     
    Baseball is not a sport where one guy gets the job done. Mike Trout is arguably the best player on the planet, and his Angels team is a joke. Over the course of his 13 year career with Minnesota, Mauer has been to the playoffs just three times, and not since 2010. He's been paired with internal stars such as Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau, but outside help has been next to nonexistent.
     
    Looking back through the help that Minnesota's front office has paired their superstar with, the lone bright spot is probably in the form of a 39 year old Jim Thome. Brought in for the 2010 season, Thome was worth 3.0 fWAR and clubbed 25 homers for the Twins that year. Despite finishing first in the AL Central and winning 90 games, that team's rotation consisted of Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker. Sure, they all won double digit games, but the average ERA was 4.36. For a playoff run, that's hardly going to get it done.
     
    Considering the course of the relationship between the Twins and Joe Mauer, the highlight for the two was in signing that 8 year mega-deal. It was the right move at the time, and even with the injuries having changed Mauer's career course, has far from hampered the club going forward. Where the Twins let not only themselves, but Joe as well down, was in believing that was enough. Minnesota's management decided that Mauer alone could return a championship to Minneapolis, and in failing to get him help in any significant amount throughout his career, Mauer has been failed most.
     
    As the Twins slog through the 2016 slate and hope that 2017 is a corner turner back to relevancy, it will be Joe who goes about his business and sits idly by again. Top prospects will be promoted and expected to contribute. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios are this club's future; they should be expected to be. What shouldn't be expected is the Twins going out and making the smart investment on a top tier free agent or two to pair with their internal talent and elevate them to new heights.
     
    We've never seen it before, why start now.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    With a very much needed, but not incredibly well deserved off day, the Minnesota Twins are guaranteed not to sink further into the loss column today. Fresh off another series loss, this one ending with a 16-4 drubbing by the Houston Astros, things have completely fallen apart for Paul Molitor's squad. The problem isn't what's on his roster though, but rather what has taken place since Opening Day.
     
    Coming into the season, the Minnesota Twins had heightened expectations after an out-of-nowhere season a year ago. Peaking ahead of schedule, Molitor took the club to the brink in his first year as manager. Just narrowly missing the playoffs, many tabbed this club as poised for more.
     
    Deficiencies were present in the bullpen a season ago, and defense was something that could also be looked upon. Despite no clear ace in the starting rotation, pitching was expected to be a relative strength with young arms on the way. Terry Ryan and the Twins did what they thought best positioned them, without blocking too many internal options, over the offseason.
     
    Fernando Abad was a key offseason non-roster guy, and results aside (as great as he's been) it's was a move likely to work. Minnesota believed he was tipping his pitches, and just a year removed from getting everyone out, that seemed like a relative easy fix. Buying Ho Park was brought in to bolster the offense. Sure, he sent Miguel Sano to right field, but there's no denying the Twins run support has been for the better for it.
     
    In summary, the roster construction of this team coming into the 2016 season was hardly problematic.
     
    That leads us to where we find ourselves now. Local writer, Brandon Warne noted on Twitter that he'd be penning a piece in defense of the Twins roster shortly. Where that veers from the issue is that the roster in and of itself is not actually all that problematic.
     
    The results have been nowhere near where this club should be (8-20 is horrible), however, it's been the in season adjustments that have highlighted a much larger issue. There's been an incredibly inept usage of the organizational pieces by both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. Promotions and demotions have been head scratching to say the least, and in game usage has questioned Molitor's savvy as a manager in general.
     
    Our latest example for the Twins compounding on their own mistakes came in that drubbing to the Astros. Following a start in which the deck was nearly stacked against him, Alex Meyer was sent back to Triple-A, rather than the Twins bullpen, in favor of J.R. Graham. Graham was promoted having totaled an ERA north of 10.00 on the farm this season. Then, instead of being just a hidden body in the bullpen, he was used in the first game he was with the team. Of course, the Astros teed off on him, and the Twins wind up looking even sillier for it.
     
    As we've now played over a month of the season, Molitor and Ryan have given us plenty of laughable instances to point at. The leash Eddie Rosario has been given is crazy, David Murphy was awarded a 40 man spot despite his intentions to avoid the dumpster fire through retiring. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have both been promoted and gone unused, and Molitor continues to be stoic throughout the whole process.
     
    With how things have been handled to this point, it appears the Twins fundamental problem is that both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor have absolutely zero clue. They have no clue what the identity of this team is, and that's a problem. You can only keep saying that such a small portion of the season has been played for so long. Right now, the Twins have virtually no chance of making the playoffs, yet every roster move is a knee jerk reaction that appears to be made thinking it's the final key to picking up that pivotal win.
     
    There's no sense packing it in, but there's a right and wrong way to handle a losing season in big league baseball. For the Twins, making sure they understand what they have in their youth, and unlocking them as contributors for the season that lies ahead, is absolutely important. That doesn't appear to be the plan, process or goal however, and that underlines the much larger issue that this organization is facing.
     
    How to change the tide is something that's much more of an uphill battle, but nothing Molitor or Ryan have displayed in 2016 suggest they appear capable of being a part of the solution.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Today, my plan was to write about Eddie Rosario and why it's incredibly odd how the Twins continue to use him. I decided to scrap that piece as thinking about Paul Molitor ended up tying in with it anyways. The Twins manager had one of the best seasons in recent memory a year ago, but since, things have gone horribly wrong. I'm not necessarily sure Molitor is completely to blame, but he's definitely part of the problem.
     
    Looking back to Rosario, Molitor's lineup construction has continued to be questionable at best. In the latest display of this, the Twins skipper started Rosario over Oswaldo Arcia in a game against right-handed pitching Collin McHugh of the Astros. On the season, Rosario is the lone Twins regular with an average below the Mendoza Line. Against righties, he's hitting a disgusting .182/.194/.348. Arcia, who has dominated righties over his career, is hitting .234/.296/.426 on the season (not great, but significantly better than Rosario).
     
    Having started out the season getting next to no playing time, Arcia has forced the Twins hand with his solid play at the plate. It seems however, that the club remains enamored with the idea of what Rosario was a season ago, and they'll do everything in their power to get him in the lineup over the Venezuelan slugger.
     
    It's not just in his outfield that Molitor seems somewhat confused however. The use of the 25 man roster has been concerning at best. While it's Terry Ryan in part that gives him the players, it's solely on Molitor's shoulder to get guys into the action. Max Kepler was with the Twins for right around 20 games to start the season, and was given a whopping 14 plate appearances and an inexcusable two starts. Alex Meyer was utilized in a similar fashion. Being called up initially for the bullpen, he was utilized once in a relief role and made just one start after sitting on the bench for a handful of games.
     
    Molito's odd roster usage isn't something tied to just 2016. I questioned how the club utilized Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas a season ago. Jorge Polanco has been jerked around this year, and I'm guessing there will be a few more instances down the line. With a roster that is going to employ a certain level of youth, Molitor seems somewhat unsure of how to effectively utilize the players at his disposal.
     
    Then there's the questionable situations that have presented themselves for the Twins. Whether it be late game substitutions, or pinch hit opportunities, sometimes it appears Molitor attempts to do too much while doing nothing at all.
     
    In 2015, players like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano were routinely pinch run for late in games for an assumed speed upgrade. Whether Eduardo Nunez represents a significant advantage or not is to be debated, but losing a bat like that should it come around again in the order is a situation that has far too often reared its head. Bunting has also become something Molitor has been in favor of in odd situations, or less than ideal batters (ahem Arcia), despite a team that has shown no advanced ability to get it down. The in game adjustments have added up to be a collective grouping of head scratching moves almost more often than not.
     
    At the end of the day, I'm not sure I'm yet advocating for the Twins to look elsewhere. I loved the Molitor hire, and think he has a great baseball mind. That being said, nothing this season has given me any sort of belief that he's the guy that can take Minnesota to the next level, and back to playoff relevancy. There's little to no reason to believe the Twins would ever make a coaching move mid-season, especially with an organizational guy. That said, the situation playing out as it has, could end up stalling any sort of turnaround even further.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Following his first and only start in a Major League Baseball uniform, the Twins couldn't even wait through the night to option prospect Alex Meyer back to Triple-A Rochester. Getting a chance with Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson on the shelf, the Twins had deemed they had seen enough after just 2.2 innings pitched from Meyer. Really though, it seems there's a much large issue at play here.
     
    This morning on Twitter I was thinking back to the guys I can remember the Twins using in an extremely poor fashion. The list is probably longer than I was able to recall, but here's what I came up with:
     
    2015 Michael Tonkin
    2015 Kennys Vargas
    2016 Max Kepler
    2016 Jorge Polanco
    2016 Alex Meyer
    Plan for these guys has been horrible #MNTwins
    The reality of the situation is that every single one of the names mentioned has been done a disservice by either Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, or a collection of the two. I touched on odd roster moves when writing up Ryan a while back, but I think it's probably fair to look a little deeper.
     
    I won't spend much time on Tonkin or Vargas as I've talked about the poor usage they had to endure previously. Tonkin was jerked back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A in 2015. Despite being a good piece for Minnesota this season, it's something they should have previously been aware of. You can read that piece here.
     
    Vargas is a guy that's never been someone I have regarded as in the higher level of prospects. It was nice that he made a showing at the 2014 Future's Game, but that may go down to be the highlight of his career. Regardless of my feelings that he may be a bench bat, Minnesota sent him packing at such a poor time, and it's essentially ruined him. Read more of my thoughts on that here.
     
    That brings us to the guys that Ryan and Molitor have hurt this season. The list starts with Max Kepler. He was up with the Twins for roughly 20 games in 2016 to start the year, and in that time, drew just two starts. Kepler was employed almost solely as a defensive replacement, and was given just 14 plate appearances. For a guy that's regarded pretty highly across MLB in the prospect realm, his development was being stunted, while his ability at the highest level was not at all being understood.
     
    Kepler could have been drawing regular, rotating starts among the Twins outfield. A guy that can play all three positions, he should have been in the lineup at least two times per week. Instead, he was sent back to Triple-A after having been able to show nothing. He's now hitting below the Mendoza Line at Rochester, and is trying to get things going after having the first bit of his season be rendered completely useless.
     
    Of the group, Polanco has probably been the least damaged, despite being a victim previously. He has been called up and sent back now by the Twins twice in 2016. The latest time, April 26, saw him get a single at bat (on April 29) before being sent back to Triple-A. Minnesota has promoted Polanco multiple times over the past three seasons, and yet he's been given a whopping 29 at bats. He's going to be out of options at the end of 2016, and despite being touted to have a big league ready bat, Minnesota really hasn't allowed him an opportunity to showcase it.
     
    I've contended for quite some time that Polanco's greatest asset to the Twins is in his trade value. He can't play short or third efficiently enough, and Minnesota has Brian Dozier at second for the immediate future. The way in which Polanco has been showcased isn't going to drive up his trade value, and it's becoming closer to the time that the Twins lose him for next to nothing.
     
    Now for the most recent example, and maybe the most frustrating one, Alex Meyer. Meyer was acquired for Denard Span from the Washington Nationals prior to the 2013 season. Now 26 years old, Meyer has both started and relieved in the Twins system. Having been a part of the organization for multiple years, it's somewhat sad the club hasn't decided on which is the best route for him to succeed.
     
    In being called up to the big leagues this time, Meyer was given a deck stacked against him, and then was immediately jettisoned to the farm in favor of a reliever with an ERA north of 10.00. Here's the timeline the Twins gave Meyer in 2016:
     
    Alex Meyer timeline:
    Apr 20- Recent AAA start
    Apr 25- Promoted to MLB
    Apr 29- Relief app
    May 3- MLB start
    May 3- Option to AAA#MNTwins
    Instead of scrapping the starting idea, and allowing him to see if he can stick in the pen for a team that's 8-19, Minnesota abandoned him altogether. Meyer goes back to Rochester where he'll likely start. Sure, he probably gets another crack at the big league level in 2016 in some fashion, but he's 26 and the organization still has no idea what the future holds for him.
     
    At some point, the Twins need to understand that if you're going to build from within, you're going to be employing youth. With youth comes inexperience, and therefore you'll have some bumps in the road to work through. For a team that's 8-19, there's little reason to keep acting like you need the quick fix that is going to get you to the playoffs, it's not happening.
     
    Looking to the future, this organization still has plenty of pieces to build a contended from within, and remain that way for a while. What I'm not sure they have is the right people at the top (Ryan and Molitor) to get them to that point.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    After the first month or so of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, one of the most disappointing Minnesota Twins has been starting second basemen Brian Dozier. He was a 2014 Home Run Derby participant, and was a 2015 All Star. In both seasons, he faded heavily down the stretch. In 2016 however, it's been out of the gate that Dozier has failed to get it going.
     
    Through the Twins first 26 games, Dozier owns just a .204/.287/.350 slash line. Of his 21 hits, nine have been for extra bases, but his 116 plate appearances have been far more unproductive than not. For a guy that's batting second in a struggling lineup, it's fair to have some concerns in relation to Dozier's current production level.
     
    In looking at things on a more granular level however, the numbers seemingly suggest a turnaround should probably be coming for the Twins second basemen.
     
    As things stand currently, Dozier has actually improved upon quite a few of his 2015 numbers. His walk rate is at 9.5%, up nearly a percent over what it was a year ago (but still a far cry from the impressive 12.6% in 2014 that lead to a .345 OBP). He's striking out less, just 17.2% of the time in comparison to 21.0% a season ago. There's also the reality that he's hitting the ball square, posting the highest (29.8%) "hard" hit rate of his career. So, what gives?
     
    Right now, Dozier is falling into some less than lucky situations, and he's not doing himself an incredible amount of justice either. His batting average on balls in play sits at .225, down nearly 40 points from a season ago, and easily the worst mark of his big league career. He's also generating line drives just 19.8% of the time, a new career low, but not far off from his norms. The highest change however has been in that he's launched fly balls nearly 50% (see 49.4%) of the time. When Dozier is hitting homers, that's not a terrible problem, but his 7.5% HR/FB ratio is nearly half or what it was a season ago.
     
    It's long been noted that Dozier's power comes from him virtually selling out to yank the ball to left field. In doing so, he's generated harder contact and more home runs, but has left himself susceptible to covering the outside portion of the plate. In 2016, he seemingly has toned down his pull tendencies at least somewhat. He's still hitting half of his batted balls to left, but his 34.5% of balls put in play to the center of the field is the highest number since 2013. While his opposite field percentage remains consistent with where it has been, the power has noticeably been sapped.
     
    Looking at plate discipline, there's really little to be concerned about as well. Dozier is swinging at the lowest amount of pitches outside of the strike zone as he ever has in his career (23.9%) and he's making contact 81.2% of the time (which is higher than 2015, and just off of his 82.9% career average). When taking a hack, Dozier has also whiffed only 7.5% of the time, nearly 2% below the output he produced a season ago.
     
    What the substantive numbers tell us, is that the slash line Dozier is currently experiencing may be somewhat smoke and mirrors. There's absolutely no doubt that he needs to put a higher portion of batted balls on a line. Popping out isn't ever going to be an effective strategy, and when the ball isn't leaving the yard, the problem becomes even greater.
     
    Considering his approach though, the weather probably effects him more than others. At Target Field or elsewhere, balls that may leave the yard simply don't in the cold early months. In 86 career games in April, Dozier owns a .216/.308/.370 slash line. That rises to .243/.299/.425 in May, and .255/.348/.451 in June. He's not a .300 hitter, and .204 is not at all far from his career .238 average.
     
    You can probably make the case that the Twins would be best served in moved Dozier down in the lineup. In an ideal world, I'd probably agree. Considering he'd be replaced with the likes of Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario, or Eduardo Nunez however, I think I'll pass. If you're not going to lead off Joe Mauer, then the Twins hitting Dozier one or two is a strategy that they'll just have to let him struggle through.
     
    The calming part of it all though is that we're probably making more out of a slow first month than we really should be.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Twins roster was expected to be about youth and inexperience. Having welcomed Korean slugger Byung Ho Park into the fold, Minnesota then was expected to turn their attention to internal youth. With top prospects littering the ladnscape for quick call ups, it was the expected narrative to begin the year.
     
    Now through the first month of the season, Paul Molitor has utilized Taylor Rogers, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and will shortly call upon Alex Meyer. That leaves us at a point of wondering what else may be coming. Despite promoting many top prospects to the big league club, the Twins still have one of the best farm systems in the game. On the mound, Minnesota is working to turn a corner, but wondering who's next is where we are currently at.
     
    There's some fun relief options that should see their major league debuts in 2016. Players such as J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and even Jake Reed could all be on the horizon for Minnesota. For the purposes of this dissection however, the focus will remain on starters, and two key individuals to be clear.
     
    First and foremost, Stephen Gonsalves has emerged as what should probably be considered the Twins next best starting pitcher prospect. He began the 2016 where he ended the 2015 season, with the Fort Myers Miracle. Somewhat similar to Jose Berrios before him, Gonsalves has made a habit of hoping levels due to strong performances mid season.
     
    After posting a 2.61 ERA and a 6.2 K/9 at High-A Fort Myers a season ago, his 2016 has started off even better. Through his first four starts, Gonsalves owns a 1.44 ERA and has struck out 8.6 per nine while issuing just 2.2 free passes per nine. He's already given up two home runs in just 25.0 IP (after giving up just 4 in 134.1 IP in 2015) but that's really his only blemish.
     
    Gonsalves is a 21 year old, and won't hit 22 until the middle of the summer. A 4th round pick out of high school in the 2013 draft, he's impressed at virtually every level he's appeared at. With the roster shuffle at the top, a promotion for Gonsalves should be right around the corner. I'd expect him to make the bulk of his starts this season at Double-A Chattanooga, and that could make him an option to reach the Twins in late 2017.
     
    He's probably not going to be a huge strikeout guy at the big league level, but he'll be serviceable at worst, and has the ability to get quality hitters out. His consistency has been a strength of his, and he's a very level headed athlete as well. Gonsalves is no doubt a name to keep an eye on, and a guy who should continue to shoot up prospect ranking boards.
     
    That brings us to number two, and a guy that I've had Jekyl and Hyde type feelings on, Kohl Stewart. Drafted 4th overall by the Twins in 2013, Stewart was expected to be a potential top of the rotation ace for the Twins. The development has taken longer than expected, but for a high school kid, it's not totally out of the ordinary.
     
    After a great professional debut season in 2013, Stewart took a step backwards at Cedar Rapids in 2014, and fell off mightily in 2015. He's a guy that had just begun focusing on baseball full time, and injuries to his arm were a part of his early time with the Twins. What he's done to start out 2016 however has to put him back on the map.
     
    Like Gonsalves, Stewart is starting this season at Fort Myers once again. He made 22 starts for the Miracle in 2015 with pretty mediocre results. This season however, he owns a 1.93 ERA across four starts while striking out 10.0 per nine and issuing just 2.3 free passes per nine. Across 23.1 innings pitched, it's hard to describe Stewart as anything but exceptional.
     
    A Texas native, Stewart continues to have some maturing to do. He's notably not the greatest guy to deal with, but I know that's something the Twins have worked with him on. As he continues to make strides on the mound, the attitude adjustments and maturity will likely follow in kind.
     
    I'm not sure that the Twins will move Stewart as aggressively as Gonsalves considering his struggles the past two seasons. He's also 21, but doesn't turn 22 until October. I want to see Stewart continue this performance for at least half of the year at Fort Myers, and if things go well, give him the promotion to Double-A Chattanooga. That would put Stewart on track to begin in Tennessee for 2017, and push for Triple-A Rochester.
     
    Despite falling off almost all top 100 prospect lists this season, Stewart could do wonders for his stock by putting together a 2016 like he has started out. Regaining the ace status, the Twins could be using him to bolster their rotation sometime in 2018. For Stewart, it's been a tough road thus far, but 2016 has been a very encouraging start.
     
    Minnesota has a handful of other guys that are interesting starting options down the road. 2015 1st round draft pick Tyler Jay is working as a starter for the first time in his career this season. Then there's players such as Felix Jorge and Randy Rosario. They would all seem to be a bit more along the lines of wishful thinking (at least as a starter Jay may be), but the club is far from depleted on the mound.
     
    As the Twins continue to turn over into a new era fueled by blossoming youth, they'll need to continue to rely on internally developed pitching prospects to help pave the way. Thankfully, the next two top tier options seem plenty poised to carry the torch.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    The Twins bullpen has been a problem area in the early going this season, and despite being left largely unaddressed this offseason, I expected the minor moves to make some difference. In short, some aspects have played out as expected. Fernando Abad has been about as good as I assumed, and Casey Fien has struggled along the lines I pictured. A guy I worried about though, was Kevin Jepsen, and that's been a bigger issue.
     
    Jepsen appeared a very large regression candidate coming into the 2016 season. After being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA for the Twins along with a 2.56 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was right near his career average, and his 2.3 BB/9 were the best result of his career. Having never seen significant time as a closer previously, he grabbed 10 saves for Minnesota as a replacement for the injured Glen Perkins.
    It all added up to a situation that just seemed too good to play out again.
     
    Now around 20 games into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the wheels have essentially fallen off for Jepsen. He owns a 4.15 ERA which probably doesn't highlight how poor he's been. His 7.3 K/9 is fine, but he's striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, the worst mark of his career. He's blown three saves, and has converted just two on the season. Now matter how you break it down, he's far from anything certain in a closer role.
     
    There's a couple of things Jepsen seems to be doing differently early on for the Twins. He's relied on his fastball nearly 75% of the time this season (nearly a 10% bump from 2015), and has all but abandoned his changeup (using it just 2.7% of the time). Combining the usage with the fact that his 94 mph velocity on his fastball is the lowest of his career, it's resulted in less than ideal output.
     
    On top of that, the effectiveness of Jepsen's pitches seems to have waned as well. In 2016, he's gotten batters to chase ptiches out of the zone just 24.1% of the time (lowest mark of his career) and well as generating swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time (lowest mark since 2013). When he throws a ball in the strike zone, opposing hitters are making contact a ridiculous 92.2% of the time (also the worst mark of his career).
     
    Right now, Jepsen's problems are a perfect storm. He's not executing his pitches, and when he is, they simply aren't very good. He's not fooling hitters, and he's generally dancing around trouble rather than attacking and avoiding it. The sum of all parts suggests the regression I expect to set in, but I really didn't see it coming this quickly.
     
    It's more than fair to attribute some of Jepsen's problems to the role he is being forced to play. Thanks to Glen Perkins binding the Twins with a week one DL stay, the former Rays reliever is pitching in a high leverage closer role he has no business occupying. In a pinch, as was the case in 2015, the situation may work for a brief period of time. As a shut down late inning reliever, you'd expect a ballclub to do better than Jepsen however.
     
    For now, it sounds like manager Paul Molitor has issued a vote of confidence to his 9th inning arm. I'd hope the leash isn't too much longer, as the Twins can't continue to cough up leads and are already scarping for every W tally they can get. At some point, it might make sense to give Trevor May a shot, or even call on one of either J.T. Chargois or Nick Burdi to assume the role. The latter two are more drastic measures, while the former is worth a try.
     
    Regardless of what eventually takes place, the path and process Kevin Jepsen is currently travelling down and executing upon can't continue to happen.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently I wrote that the Twins have an absolute slew of problems. They are doing quite a few things poorly, and everything is going negatively all at just about the same time. If we're going to try and attribute things to one place, we're probably running a fool's errand. What is true however, is that Terry Ryan's ineptitude has become more of a focus than ever.
    Having taken over for his appointed heir, Bill Smith, Ryan has guided the Twins through some substantial rebuilding. The club had four straight 90 loss seasons, and in turn, drafted some pretty promising prospects. Seemingly close to the top of the mountain once again in 2015, the club just missed the playoffs in Paul Molitor's first year. Now roughly a month into the 2016 season, the head scratching when looking at Terry Ryan's plan has reached an all time high.
     
    Let's be fair here, I have never been one to criticize Ryan. For the better part of his tenure with the Twins, I feel as though he's done a passable job. While you'd no doubt hope for something that pushes the needle a bit further, he's been a guy who is less than deserving of the distaste directed at him. He pulled off a heck of a deal to land Tommy Milone and I still believe that both the Yankees and Twins will benefit from the Aaron Hicks and John Ryan Murphy swap. He moved on from Francisco Liriano when he needed to, and Eduardo Escobar has been more than capable in return.
     
    Outside of a few bright spots over the past few seasons however, Ryan has simply seen the game pass him by.
     
    We can talk at length about whether or not Paul Molitor was a great hire for the manager role of the Twins, but it's far to early to tell how that narrative is going to play out. What we do know, is that Ryan was indebted to former manager Ron Gardenhire to a fault, and while the losing may not have been a result of his direct influence, he did little to change course either.
     
    Coming into the 2016 season, Minnesota made little waves on the open market, and it was expected to be a sign of internal options rising to the top. Now well out of the division race and floundering below the .500 mark, Alex Meyer becomes just the first promotion that we can expect to stay with the big league club (at least as long as he proves capable).
     
    Ryan no doubt had his hand in sending outfielder, and top prospect Max Kepler to the majors. In getting there, he started just two of 17 games, and saw only 14 plate appearances. Whether or not his development was stunted, Kepler saw the early part of his 2016 go to waste. Throw Jorge Polanco in the mix with Kepler, and you have another guy that has now been promoted to the big league level six different times, despite never staying for longer than a four game span. Not expected to have much of a significant impact being more rotational guys to start, the Twins learned next to nothing about either of them while they were up.
     
    A problematic pattern with promotions has followed Ryan for the better part of the past couple seasons. Both Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas were mishandled a season ago. One is currently seeing success at for the Twins, while the other is still trying to find the floor after having the rug pulled out from under him.
     
    Then you have what may be considered the breaking point for me. In signing veteran retread David Murphy, the Twins were essentially saying they needed a reason to shake up the roster. Rather than doing so and using a guy like Oswaldo Arcia (who has made his lack of playing time early on look silly), it was Murphy who was supposed to come in and force Minnesota into making a necessary move such as demoting top prospect Byron Buxton.
     
    Murphy went to Triple-A Rochester, and hit .194 like the aged veteran he is. Upon time for his upcoming opt out clause, the Twins first cleared room on their 40 man roster. Catcher John Hicks, who was just claimed from the Mariners this offseason, was jettisoned. Now not only had the Twins lost their third catcher (and a guy with decent future reliability), Murphy made things worse for Minnesota by declining any promotion and chose to retire.
     
    Rather than actually knowing where all parties stood, Ryan and the Twins end up looking silly with egg on their face as the roster handling appears to be above their level of competency. As the dust settled, Minnesota finds themselves now needing to add an otherwise unnecessary player to the 40 man just to fill out their big league bench.
     
    At some point, you have to be ok with asking for more from your leaders. Ryan at his best has been passable if not mediocre. If the Twins are going to take the next step, it's becoming relatively clear that Ryan is probably not the guy capable of pushing the envelope to get them there. Rather than continuing to look internally, and hiring back buddies such as Gardenhire, the Twins best friend could be the one they don't yet know. Ingenuity and innovation generally breeds advancement, but right now that's a foreign concept at Target Field.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. Ted Schwerzler
    Here we sit, right around the end of the first month of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and the Minnesota Twins find themselves as cellar dwellers. Not only are they dead last in the AL Central, but they've found themselves there on account of everything going wrong, at almost always the right moments.
     
    Coming off a season in which they weren't technically eliminated from playoff contention until the final week of the season, the Twins had high hopes for the year ahead. Instead of capitalizing on that in the early going, they've taken multiple steps backwards. A roster with youth, there's been odd decisions, the bullpen has been up and down, and the offense has been near non-existent. What it's really added up to is the Twins having as many problems as they could have possibly envisioned.
     
    First and foremost is the offense. With a lineup that was rounded out using big bats, Paul Molitor's club was expected to hit balls over the fence. A realistic chance for 200 on the season, they appear destined to finish nowhere near that mark. Just 17 to date, the Twins aren't remotely close to where good home run hitting teams have been in previous seasons.
     
    I've done (I believe) a very consistent job of keeping track of what I've coined the Twins Power Index. In measuring strikeouts, as they relate to home runs, Minnesota has often been left empty handed. Striking out per game, more than any other team in baseball not named the Houston Astros, the Twins home run totals have lagged behind. Only a couple of guys are seeing above an acceptable amount of pitches per strikeout, and the problem as a whole hasn't gotten better.
     
    Against the Washington Nationals in D.C. Mollie's club struck out a ridiculous 38 times over the course of two games. I saw a Twins writer or two caution that the way of the K had fallen by the wayside as, they "hardly struck out at all over the last week," and that "the sky's not falling." In a vacuum, that's probably a true sentiment, but considering the power production expected to compliment those strikeouts has not change, the problem is only looming larger.
     
    Then, because of the lack of offense, the Twins have done nothing for what has been a respectable (maybe a little less) pitching staff. In 19 games, Neil Allen's starters have thrown nine quality starts. Of those games, only three of them have been won by the Twins. In six of nine quality starts, Minnesota failed to score more than what amounts to no more than three runs over the course of six innings.
     
    When Minnesota is scoring, they aren't holding leads either. Forget about Glen Perkins who's on the DL after a week one injury. Kevin Jepsen has looked every bit the regression candidate he was poised to be, and despite some decent outings from Trevor May, his command and prowess on the mound has eluded him almost an equal amount. The bullpen was positioned to be improved, if not avoid being a liability once again, should everything break right. Unfortunately, nothing has gone that way for Minnesota.
     
    Rounding out the group of unfortunate-isms (sure, we'll go with it), is the direction this team has seemed to take through it all. With a roster probably one year ahead of real playoff contention, the youth was going to both sink and swim. What has happened however, is confusing roster moves that don't seem to mesh with each other whatsoever.
    Early on in 2016, top prospect Max Kepler was given the call to Minnesota. He started just two of 13 games at one point with the Twins, and was given no regular time. The bulk of that was while Byron Buxton was struggling, and Eddie Rosario could get nothing going. Not only was his development being stunted by not playing, but Molitor had no better clue as to what he was capable of at this level.
     
    It took nearly moving a mountain to get Oswaldo Arcia to draw some significant starts, and now the club appears to have opened a 40 man roster spot (and depleting a realistic third catcher in the process) for aging veteran David Murphy. Unlike Kepler, Arcia, or any host of other young players, there's no hurt to having Murphy come up and sit. In needing to sign a veteran retread just to get the oomph to make a roster move though, Terry Ryan should expect to face disdain.
     
    UPDATE: Per Mike Berardino, the Twins did in fact open up the 40 man spot to call up David Murphy. They lost John Hicks in doing so, and Murphy walked away from the organization presumably to retire. That sequence as a whole is a massive dumpster fire and highlights a really poor lack of planning.
     
    At the end of the day, it won't matter whether Jose Berrios joins the rotation, Buxton gets it going in Triple-A, or some combination of Alex Meyer and J.T. Chargois bolster the big league pen. Right now, the Twins are doing everything wrong between the lines, and the stuff taking place outside of them is following suit.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins seemingly had one lone spot open in their starting rotation. Tommy Milone was out of options, and was seemingly guaranteed to be included. That left Ricky Nolasco as the veteran fighting to remain in the group. Now a few weeks into the year, there's a couple more added wrinkles to the mix.
     
    First and foremost, it's worth noting how the Twins fourth and fifth starters have performed. Milone owns a 5.87 ERA having given up 10 earned runs in just 15.1 IP. He's been significantly bitten by the long ball, and has already surrendered four of them in just 3 starts. With strikeout rates up (7.0 K/9) and walk rates on par with his career averages, it's really been just keeping the ball in the yard that has kept Milone from succeeding.
     
    On the other hand, Nolasco has taken steps forward after floundering in his first two seasons with Minnesota. Across three starts, he owns a 2.66 ERA and has given the Twins quality starts in two of his outings. While his strikeout numbers have decreased, he's walking next to no one, and limiting damage. Right now, there's really no reason to look to replace the former Marlins mainstay.
     
    What is on the horizon for the Twins absolutely has to have them looking to improve at the top. Just one rung down in the organization, Triple-A Rochester has at least two guys that look big league ready. First and foremost, Twins top pitching prospect Jose Berrios.
     
    On the season, Berrios has made three starts to the tune of a 1.06 ERA. He's striking out over 10 batters per nine innings, and while his walk numbers are up, they are generally not in line with his career performance. One of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, there's significant reason to believe Berrios would elevate the staff as a whole. I had him being promoted in May, and I still see that happening. Right now, I just don't know for who.
     
    That brings us to arm number two, and somewhat of a curious inclusion. Alex Meyer has been almost equally as impressive at Rochester. He began the year with a scoreless innings streak of 15.1. In three games (two starts) he owns a 1.04 ERA, and he's held his walk rate in check at just 2.1 BB/9. Meyer throws hard, and his stuff could play in either the rotation or bullpen depending on where the Twins want to use him. If it's in relief that the door swings easier right now, I'd be asking him to hop on a plane sooner rather than later.
     
    Not to be forgotten is 2015 standout Tyler Duffey. While he's taking somewhat of a back seat to the two aforementioned pitchers, Duffey's 1.72 ERA is now slouch of its own. He's walking too many batters (4.0 BB/9) but has otherwise pitched well. Having been a contributor for the Twins a season ago, there's plenty of reason to believe he's capable of being just that again.
     
    If you want to take a step even further down the ladder, J.T. Chargois has to have turned some heads. The Double-A Chattanooga closer has pitched 5.0 innings without giving up a base hit. He's walked no one and his nine strikeouts have him rolling at a 16.2 K/9 pace. He throws some electric stuff, and I'd believe in him out of the Twins pen almost immediately.
     
    Minnesota will start to see this problem (if we can call it that) pop up more and more in the coming seasons. As some of their top pitching talent rises to the top levels, room will need to be made. I think both Meyer and Berrios should probably be with the big league team almost immediately, and I'm not exactly sure where I'd put them. At some point, you may have to push out the Milone's or Casey Fien's of the world to advance your squad as a whole.
     
    It's a proposition that Terry Ryan hasn't had to deal with for quite some time, but if the Twins are truly going to bank on their own hard work, it's one they'll need to start looking into.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins made the commitment to Miguel Sano in right field. In keeping Trevor Plouffe, the club kept together what projected to be a strong offense, and forced Sano to learn a new position. There's been some hiccups in the process (as expected), but what's interesting is the belief that this wasn't a possible scenario all along.
     
    Just a handful of games into the season, the Twins tender of the hot corner, Trevor Plouffe, hit the disabled list with an intercostal strain. The club called up infielder Jorge Polanco to replace him on the 25 man roster, but it was Sano and Eddie Rosario who fielded some pre-game grounders for Paul Molitor's squad. Pictures circulated on the interwebs, and the question quickly became whether or not Sano would move back to third base at least in the short term.
     
    The simple answer is almost unquestionably no. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have both harped on being committed to the development of Sano in right field. Outside of some extreme set of circumstances, the hulking Dominican is nowhere near their radar to play third base. This seems to draw the ire of some in the fan base, but the problem is, should it?
     
    First of all, let's remember that Sano is a ballplayer pushing 280 pounds. Sure, a lot of that is muscle, but it doesn't negate the fact that he's a very large human being. Now we're all more than well aware that Sano came through the Twins system as a third basemen (after being signed as a shortstop), but there were always significant questions as to whether he'd stick there at the big league level. Comparing him to his peers, it's not hard to see he's an outlier.
     
    Forget looking at the best defensive third basemen, Sano almost assuredly would not be in that category. Comparing the Twin to a group of big league third basemen who posted between 4 and -6 defensive runs saved at third base last season (a total of eight players), not one is heavier than David Freese's 225 pounds. Freese has played third in the big leagues for the entirety of his career, having posted a 2 DRS for a career high, and a -14 DRS as a career low.
     
    Then there's comparing Sano to teammate Trevor Plouffe. Both had the minor league career arc of being shifted from shortstop to third base. Plouffe failed at short and was moved, while Sano was almost immediately deemed too big for the role. Plouffe posted just 13 errors in 78 career minor league games, or a 26.9 per 162 game average. On the other hand, Sano has totaled 112 errors over the course of 326 starts at third base, or a 55.6 per 162 game average. That only begins to highlight where Sano may have experienced some significant struggles at the next level.
     
    Coming off of Tommy John surgery as a position player, Sano's arm was generally expected to respond well. The stress for a third basemen isn't nearly what it is for a pitcher, and Sano has shown he still has a cannon during his time in right field for the Twins. What the question always was for him related to his glove and lateral agility at the hot corner.
     
    At the present time, we're allowed an almost exact level of comparison between Sano in right and at third base in the big leagues. During the 2015 season, he played a total of 77 innings at third turning in a -1 DRS and a 0.7 ultimate zone rating. In right field during 2016, he's played 79.2 innings owning a -4 DRS and a -0.1 UZR. We're really at a place of splitting hairs.
     
    Sano's deficiencies in right field have been generally linked to his uncertainty as to how to attack a batted baseball. Whether it be an ill timed dive, or a poor route, there struggles he's going through are largely related to learning how to adjust to new ball trajectories on the fly (no pun intended). That said, his athleticism has adept enough in allowing him to complete the plays he absolutely should make.
     
    Where we're currently at is a position in which the Twins employed the best case scenario in regards to Sano. It's probably more than false hope to suggest or believe that he was going to be a capable big league third basemen defensively. Almost by body size alone, he's destined for a designated hitter or first base role. The former isn't a sentence you'd like to present to a 22 year old, and the latter is currently occupied by one of the best hitters in baseball.
     
    Long term, Miguel Sano probably shouldn't play right field forever. Expecting him to capably hold down the role while mashing opposing pitching and getting contributions from both Plouffe and Mauer is a sensible approach however. With Plouffe out of the picture for the time being, Sano continues to be a better fit for the greater good of Minnesota in right, and it really doesn't matter that his position on the farm may say otherwise.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Twins getting a big sweep over the Angels, they seem to have righted the ship to a certain extent. At the center of the good fortune (and sorry to Oswaldo Arcia who has contributed two game winners), is poster child Joe Mauer. The St. Paul native seems to be the story to write this week (pieces at Twins Daily and MLB Daily Dish), and for good reason.
     
    Over the course of the spring, Twins beat writer Mike Berardino often noted when Mauer was and wasn't wearing sunglasses. Now further removed from his position-change-forcing concussion, Mauer was experimenting with different alternatives to give him an edge at the plate. Minnesota's first basemen said that he had struggled to see the ball at time during 2015, and that probably didn't help him as he scuffled to a career worst .265 batting average.
     
    Going into this season, I thought that the extra distance from his injuries issues would give Mauer an edge. During my bold predictions piece, I suggested that the Twins hometown hero would hit .300 again on the season. So far, he's trending towards making that look like a cakewalk.
     
    Through the Twins first 12 games, Mauer is slashing an incredible .372/.472/.415. Mauer has had good April's before, but the 2016 season is different, and you don't have to look to deep to find out why. Currently, Mauer's numbers supporting his results are staggering.
     
    On the season, Mauer owns a 1.8% swinging strike rate, meaning he almost never swings and misses. He's faced four 0-2 counts in which he has swung, and he's gotten base hits each time. Against full counts, Mauer is slashing .500/.727/.667 with five walks and ZERO strikeouts in 11 plate appearances. When pitches have gotten two strikes on Mauer, he's responded with a .400/.520/.450 line. Also, after going down 0-2, Mauer owns an .833/.889/1.000 line on the year. To say he's seeing the ball well doesn't even begin to explain it.
     
    In his heyday, Mauer dictated what would happen when he stepped into the batters box, and he's doing that once again. Through the first handful of games for the Twins, Mauer has told pitchers where than can and cannot throw the ball to him, and he's punished them for missing their spots. Still taking a pitch or two when stepping into the box, it's actually been a scenario in which Mauer has lulled the opposing pitcher into giving him the advantage.
     
    To suggest what Mauer is doing is incredible is probably selling it somewhat short.
     
    We are plenty removed from the days that Joe Mauer was Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player. He's no longer a catcher, and his brain injury has caused his game to change the way he's played. He's never going to be the big bopper first basemen, but what we are seeing in the 2016 Mauer is something Twins fans have long since forgotten the St. Paul native capable of.
     
    It's been three seasons since Mauer has eclipsed the .300 mark. He was last an All Star in 2013, and slashed .324/.404/.476 that year. It was the last in which he spent time playing behind the plate. Now a full time first basemen, Mauer and his sunglasses have put him back into the realm of playing the game he has always been synonymous with.
     
    Credit Mauer for working through the ill effects of his injury and finding a way in which his bat can return to its elite level. His work at first base has also taken significant strides, as he's now above league average defensively at the position. Things are seemingly coming full circle for him, and that's a great thing for the Twins.
     
    It wasn't too long ago that Mauer was on a collision course with the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. He's still got a ways to go, and I opined that there's reason to believe he gets there, but hitting for average as a first basemen isn't going to do anything but help his cause. If he can continue his current approach at the plate for the Twins, he'll be the most valuable player to this squad and it won't be remotely close.
     
    Forget the average and the raw numbers, when looking at how Joe Mauer is generating production in 2016, opposing pitchers should be looking straight up a mountain when trying to consider their ensuing battle.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    It began as a sweep, then turned into a franchise record, and has now reached less than unfortunate territory. The Twins opening up the season with a handful of losses as they have has been anything but expected. This was a team looking to take the next step forward, and while that could still end up being the case, they've dug themselves a massive hole. I've taken it upon myself to figure out how to fix it thought.
     
    Short of cloning eight more Joe Mauer's, the Twins need to shake things up a bit. Here's a couple things I see as being helpful to getting this club going in 2016:
     
    A lineup shuffle
     
    Speaking of Joe Mauer, bat him in the leadoff spot. It's been something I've contended as making sense for quite some time, and if there's a time to try it, now would make a lot of sense. The Twins have gone with Brian Dozier for the better part of the past two seasons and mostly because they really don't have a legitimate option. Despite being a respectable OBP guy, Dozier's pop is best served elsewhere.
     
    Mauer owns a career .395 on base percentage, and even in his career worst .265 average season of 2015, he still posted a .338 OBP. Through the first handful of games in 2016, Mauer owns a .387/.487/.581 slash line and has walked (6) more times than he's struck out (4). Forget about the idea that a leadoff hitter has to be a speed guy, you can't steal first and Mauer will get there more often than not.
     
    Start a new outfield
     
    No, this isn't a chance to knock the Sano experiment. There's been some lumps (honestly what in the world was that dive), but for the most part it's going just fine. You're keeping Sano in the mix for his bat, and right field is a fine place to do it. That said, his two outfield mates could afford to be swapped out. Give me Oswaldo Arcia in left with Max Kepler in center.
     
    The Twins brought Arcia north because they aren't stupid. There's no way the Venezuelan slugger would pass through waivers unclaimed, and that's because another team will assume he can hit. Through 9 games (of which Minnesota has lost them all), Arcia has drawn just one start and been given only four at bats. He had a horrid 2015 season at the dish, but he's a year removed from a .231/.300/.452 slash line with 20 homers. If the Twins can scoff at that kind of power production given their current situation, I'm unsure how.
     
    With Kepler you're getting a prospect with some serious upside into the field. Of course he'd be taking over for Byron Buxton, but I'll address that shortly. You'll lose a good amount defensively but Kepler's best position in the field is in center. He'll hit eventually, and if his .318/.410/.520 slash line across High-A and Double-A in 2015 is anything of substance, it'll be sooner rather than later.
     
    Buxton rides the bus
     
    For the most part, I diagrammed why I believe Buxton would be best suited for about three weeks at Triple-A in this piece. It's not a death sentence, and it shouldn't change the belief that he's a top end talent long term. Right now though, he needs to shorten up his swing a bit and generate some significant confidence at the plate.
     
    In 13 games at Rochester in 2015, Buxton hit .400 and picked up at least one base hit in every game. Allow him to go down, settle in, and generate that kind of production again. Buxton has had a eerily similar career beginning to Mike Trout, and although he's never going to hit for that kind of power, wanting the immediate return shouldn't trump him getting the opportunity to contribute when he's ready.
     
    With the Twins having signed David Murphy, someone in the outfield is headed back to Rochester. The veteran isn't going to be on the farm long, and the Twins would be best served to make it Buxton. Of course they could have just started their own players (Arcia/Kepler) rather than signing Murphy, but I digress.
     
    Break Sano and Park off
     
    Right now, the two biggest power threats in the Twins lineup couldn't hit a breaking pitch to save their life. Miguel Sano has made watching early fastballs down the gut a habit, and he's routinely guessed and buckled at the vision of a bender coming in. Byung Ho Park has bailed out on pitches, struggled to keep his head through the sing zone, and has flailed at offspeed stuff far too often.
     
    I'm not sure going down to Triple-A would be a good idea for either of them. Big league benders are going to be what they need to compete against, and forcing them to work through the struggles up top seems the best plan of action. We've seen Sano handle it with the impressive 2015 he had, and it was always (yes you were wrong about Park struggling with fastballs) going to be the biggest change for Park in coming over from Korea.
     
    Maybe the two of them need a heavy dose of offspeed live batting practice a couple of times a week. Maybe their swings need some tweaking. I'm not 100% sold on what the answer is, but breaking balls have been the pair's kryptonite and it needs to end sooner rather than later.
     
    Level with Rosario
     
    When looking at how to shuffle the otufield, I have a hard time suggesting Eddie Rosario not having been the worst of the Twins bunch. Following a successful rookie year that saw him put up numbers despite some really concerning offensive flaws, he's been incredibly out of sorts to start 2016. Not only are his offensive problems coming to light (he's swinging at 50.8% of pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing 19.7% of the time, both worse than 2015 numbers), but he's been awful in the field as well (-2 DRS in just 68.1 innings).
     
    There was plenty of reasons thrown out as to why Rosario struggled as he rose through the minors. His on base percentage dipped and he looked like he didn't want to be there. I know that his disinterest has been noted as the biggest culprit. He's often been suggested as a guy that wanted to be in the big leagues and believed he was above that level. He's probably not wrong, but flipping the switch is a hard task and one he hasn't seemed capable of in 2016.
     
    Right now, I think Buxton has more to gain from a development standpoint by going to Triple-A. If it were plausible though, I'd send Rosario out simply to send a message. His head isn't screwed on right, and it's been pretty apparent.
     
    At the end of the day, when things are going as wrong as they are for the Twins, there's no shortage of things Minnesota can try. Paul Molitor has to right the ship sooner rather than later though. With just a small portion of the 162 game slate accounted for, there's plenty of time left, but it's up to the club to make meaningful use of it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    This afternoon, things got worse for the 0-7 Twins as closer Glen Perkins was put on the disabled list due to shoulder issues. With an already questionable bullpen coming into the season, and one that has struggled during it, Perkins removal doesn't help the situation. The bigger problem is that the player continues to be more of a concern than just in regards to injury issues.
     
    On the season, which to be fair is just two appearances, Perkins owns a 9.00 ERA through 2.0 IP. He's given up five hits and blown his only save opportunity. After suggesting all spring that "no one had asked me (Perkins) to open it up," his velocity has been nonexistent. He has topped out this season at 92.7 miles per hour, and is down from a 93.7 mph average a year ago. Back in 2013, Perkins was averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball, and the decline since has been stark.
     
    What's problematic is that this could have all been avoided. Scenario one includes some level of transparency.
    As noted above, Perkins has insisted all spring that he's healthier than ever, his workouts this offseason were strength focused, and he was ready for the long haul of the season. Now just two appearances in, the 33 year old is breaking down. His radio appearances and print interviews have fallen by the wayside, and once again, he's got egg on his face.
     
    Nick Nelson of Twins Daily noted on Twitter that we've seen this before. Back in 2009, Perkins suggested all was fine, until it wasn't. The revelation wasn't met in kind from then manager Ron Gardenhire, and rightfully so.
     
    Then there's the other part of the equation; what if Perkins wasn't here at all? I wrote a piece over a year ago suggesting that the Twins biggest trade asset was Perkins (check it out here). Minnesota was in the midst of 90 loss campaigns, and having an elite close on a losing team is somewhat unnecessary. Sure, the Twins had recently signed him to a mutually-friendly deal, and he's a Minnesota native, but baseball is a business as well.
     
    The suggestion for dealing Perkins came following the San Diego Padres trading Houston Street. Perkins had posted very similar, if not better, numbers at the time and Los Angeles gave up what seemed like quite a bit. Now with things as they are currently, relying on a strong system of relief prospects and having had the benefit of a nice return from Perkins, it'd be hard to argue the Twins find themselves in a bad spot.
     
    At the end of the day though, we can't change anything with either scenario. Perkins wasn't in the shape he thought he was, and he's still a part of the Twins organization. What can change is how things are handled going forwards however.
     
    It's plenty apparent that Perkins is nowhere close to what he once was, or was even at the beginning of last season. It's time he gets real with himself and understands him limitations. I don't expect him to publicly voice or acknowledge them, but slowing his roll on proposing opposition towards his detractors is also probably a good idea. At some point this season, Perkins will need to be a part of the Twins pen, and getting him to be the most effective includes the reality of him leveling with the organization as to what is actually going on with his body.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins started their 2016 season out on the road. They were tasked with bearing the Baltimore Orioles, and the defending World Series Champion Kansas City Royals. In a season destined for heightened expectations, they returned home for their opener winless, an 0-6 start. The home cooking didn't change the tide either, on to 0-7. Then it happened, the boos came.
     
    Here's the deal, this isn't intended to be a romp through the Twins misery, and conversely, it's not intended to provide rainbows and butterflies. At the end of the day, the goal should absolutely be perspective. There's some out there that will implore you to look at the bright side, how much time is to come, and try to downplay the desperation of the situation. There's others that have written this team off, thrown in the towel, and have begun looking towards the offseason. What the two factions may have in common, is that the vocal outcry at Target Field during the Twins home opener was incredibly misplaced.
     
    In booing the Twins, a level of frustration has been reached. No matter your reasoning or justification for doing so, it's an odd effort to push for the outcome you actually desire. On the surface, it's more than apparent that the club needs a better effort in the results column. Of course the biggest issues have been with the strikeouts and bullpen. What booing effectively suggests however, is nothing more than a cop out in relation to an actual understanding of the process.
     
    Right now, Paul Molitor's squad has a pretty broken process. I touched above on the strikeouts. The team has struggled to bunt effectively (as most recently witnessed by Kurt Suzuki's latest attempt). Maybe most importantly, productive at bats have become a thing of wonderment. Added together, the sum of the parts is a pretty ugly final set of results. That said though, we're plenty far from being able to call anything final. After all, I don't wait five months for baseball to dismiss a team 4% of the way into the schedule.
     
    It's well out of my realm (or care really) to suggest that booing cease to exist. What may be better placed efforts though are a honing in on the changes desired. Focusing the energy towards tuning into the broken processes advance an understanding of a complex game. Did the bunt get down? Was the runner advanced? Did the at bat produce a productive result? Breaking the greater game down to more intricate scenarios allows for the level of advancement to be more correctly analyzed.
     
    On a game-by-game basis, the margin really is irrelevant. Whether or not a team completes the situations that should produce favorable outcomes are why the schedule is 162 games long. Over the course of the season, completing the process most effectively is what should in turn, produce the desired results.
     
    No doubt I can sympathize with vocalized frustration, booing has become a thing synonymous with sports for as long as anyone can remember. Whether you participate or not however, the reality is that it serves next to no purpose. Regardless of your belief that some millionaire should be outwardly made aware (as if they already aren't) that their job isn't being completed appropriately or not, a more rewarding approach is available.
     
    As things stand, the Twins are in an ugly scenario. The losing streak isn't ideal, but there's no argument to the fact that it's being amplified due to the time it's taking place. Many a playoff team has had seven game losing streaks in a season. The Houston Astros experience it a year ago, and the 1991 World Series winning Twins started 2-9. At this point, we have no more idea as to what the final results of the 2016 season look like as we did before the season kicked off.
     
    What we do know, is that the Twins have quite a few broken processes at this point. The results indicate that, and that's where the focus would be. Choose to boo if you'd like, but focusing on the analysis of the process and the growth or progress that happens could be plenty more insightful as the months draw on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Earlier I wrote about the Minnesota Twins new shift in thinking. After watching the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros throw strikeout cares to the wind, it appears that's what Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are deciding to give a go. Utilizing a lineup built with swing and miss hitters, it's going to be boom or bust many nights this season. What we have seen thus far, is way too much of the latter.
     
    Rather than break down everything into much more minute detail, I'd urge you to peruse the linked article above. It goes through the Twins futility in the small sample size provided to us through the first few games. What is worth noting same size aside, it what things may look like over the course of a full season, and what benchmarks there are in regards to actually being successful.
     
    That's where the project I recently completed comes in.
     
    Take a look at the Google Spreadsheet linked below. It's entitled "2016 Twins Strikeout and Power Numbers" but it presents quite a bit more than that.
     
    Google Spreadsheet Click Here
     
    There's a small bit of analysis on the spreadsheet itself, but what I'll be able to provide you over the season, is a live benchmark as to where the Twins are at in comparison to what is taking place this season, and what has previously turned out to be a plausible strategy. Hopefully, and I'd expect them to, the numbers begin to level off sooner rather than later for what is expected to be a competitive 2016 Twins ball club.
     
    When looking at how the Twins have previously done things, this is uncharted territory. It may work, or it may crash and burn, but at least we'll be able to track it along the way.
     
    I'll leave this piece pinned to the top of my Twitter profile for the duration of the season. If you aren't following me yet, please do so @tlschwerz
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here.
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2016 Minnesota Twins baseball season is plenty fresh. Just a handful of games in, and the season has produced some already fantastic finishes. For the Twins though, those finishes have come as onlookers around the league, and there's one narrative that's most glaring when looking internally. What do we make of all of the strikeouts?
     
    It was pretty apparent from the get go that this collection of players Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan had assembled were going to strike out. The lineup featured power hitters throughout, but many of them have boom or bust potential. When looking at the sheer number of guys being sent back to the bench however, I couldn't help but dig further.
     
    Earlier this week, I spent a good amount of time digging into the underlying numbers of what was going on at the plate for the Twins. Taking to Twitter (follow along @tlschwerz), I dissected quite a few of the percentages that are popping off the page for the Twins. Just a few games in, it's not worth drawing many conclusions off of the 2016 numbers, but in comparison to what has taken place in the past, there's a slippery slope being stared at here.
     
    Through their first two games, the Twins had struck out an astonishing 23 times (or 43% of their recorded outs). Dating all the way back to 1961, when the Twins first became a Minnesota franchise, they had never struck out that many times in their first two games. In fact, across the last five seasons, the Twins have struck out more than 15 times in their first two games just once (22 in 2014). Leaving Baltimore, Minnesota had totaled 35 strikeouts across just 81 outs (holding strong at 43%). Failing to put the ball in play nearly half of the time is a recipe for disaster.
     
    As things currently stand, only three teams in the big leagues average more than ten strikeouts per game. The Cardinals top the list at 12.3, the Blue Jays whiff 11.5 times per contest, and the Twins get sent down 11.7 times a game. Of those teams though, there's really only a cause for concern when looking at two of them. With strikeouts should come power, and the Blue Jays have hit home runs 10.9% of the time for each strikeout. On the flip side, both Minnesota (5.7%) and St. Louis (5.4%) lag behind.
     
    Again, the small sample size is far from fair to extrapolate over the course of a full season. That said, and for the sake of understanding, the Twins find themselves in an odd place. A season ago, Molitor's club totaled 1,349 hits while striking out 1,264 times. In 2016, they are on pace for just 1,134 hits and 1,890 strikeouts. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs led all of baseball (by over 100) with 1,518 strikeouts. Looking at the Cubs, they also launched 171 homers a year ago, or a rate of 11.3% per every strikeout.
     
    There's been multiple articles this offseason written about the Twins reaching the 200 home run plateau on the season. It seems like a lofty goal, but one that I can ultimately get behind. Last year, only four teams were able to reach that mark. They consisted of, the Blue Jays (232), Astros (230), Orioles (217), and Yankees (212).
    When looking at the teams that hit 200 homers however, they did so economically. Here's each of those clubs home runs per strikeout percentages: Blue Jays (20.2), Yankees (17.3), Astros (16.5), and Orioles (16.4). That tells us that if you're going to push towards that 200 mark, you have to send balls over the fence nearly 15% of the time per strikeout, something the Twins aren't even close to current sniffing.
     
    Right now, the Twins have six players that have struck out more than four times this season. The list includes Byron Buxton (6), Eddie Rosario (6), Brian Dozier (4), Byung Ho Park (4), Trevor Plouffe (4), and Brian Dozier (4). What's interesting is just how they differ at the plate. Take a look at this breakdown:

    Buxton 6 strikeouts on 48 pitches = 8 pitches per K
    Rosario 6 strikeouts on 44 pitches = 7.3 pitches per K
    Dozier 4 strikeouts on 52 pitches = 13 pitches per K
    Park 4 strikeouts on 38 pitches = 9.5 pitches per K
    Plouffe 4 strikeouts on 44 pitches = 11 pitches per K
    Sano 4 strikeouts on 47 pitches = 11.75 pitches per K

    The numbers above tell us that when striking out, generally Dozier, Plouffe, and Sano work the count to the point of battling, while the other three (Buxton, Rosario, and Park) generally go down more easily. Buxton's numbers can be misleading (obviously, the sample size is small) in that his third game saw him see just seven pitches (after seeing 18 and 23 in his first two games respectively). On the other hands, Rosario's seeing barely over seven pitches per strikeout, combined with the fact he swung at pitches out of the strike zone 46% of the time a season ago, isn't a good look. For the Korean, strikeouts are going to mount until he settles into a more comfortable routine in his new situation.
     
    As a whole, there's a lot to sift through here. In its simplest form, the 2016 Minnesota Twins are striking out incredibly too much right now. They aren't hitting for nearly enough power to outweigh the negative effects, and if the trend doesn't slow, the offense will continue to sputter because of it. It's incredibly realistic to assume the whiff rates even out some, and the Twins will eventually complete nine innings without fanning double-digit times (I think). The problem is that these stretches probably aren't going to be limited to the first few games, and will pop up throughout the year as well.
     
     
    Baseball has long become enamored with the almighty K, and it's understandable as to why. What the Twins need to focus on, is tipping the box score to include more kangaroos on their opponent's stat line instead of theirs.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
×
×
  • Create New...