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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    Now owners of the first winning season for the Twins franchise since 2010, Paul Molitor and the guys have had a very successful 2015 campaign. There's been rookies introduced, milestones reached, and even a 40 year old man competing at a very high level over the last month of the season. What there has also been, is a pitcher that is generally the butt of all jokes, giving Minnesota exactly what they've needed.
     
    For that, thank you Mike Pelfrey.
     
    Before the season began, Twins fans no doubt would be thanking Mike Pelfrey that the Pohlad's were only shelling out $5.5 million for his services this season (a very modest amount for a major league starting pitcher). They would be thanking him for this being the end of his three year run with the organization. Thankfulness would be shed on the fact that his departure would open the door for someone else to come take over. However, now with the season coming to an end, Pelfrey should be thanked for all of unexpected contributions he provided this winning ballclub.
     
    Full disclosure, calling any contributions at the big league level probably isn't fair. You're being paid millions to go out and compete, your team expects that to happen at a level that puts them in position to win. However, with Pelfrey having ERA's of 5.19 and 7.99 in his past two season respectively, the expectations were no doubt going to be lowered.
     
    Initially asked to pitch out of the bullpen prior to Ervin Santana's PED suspension, Pelfrey warmly accepted his assignment the Scott Boras climate was quick to voice his unhappiness. After all, he wasn't going to welcome the chance to leave money on the table heading into free agency (even if I am of the belief he has very good to elite relief potential). Regardless of how it took place however, Pelfrey was going to start, and that is exactly what he has done.
     
    Making 29 starts for the Twins (with one remaining as of this writing), Pelfrey compiled a 4.09 ERA, the second best mark of his career. His 3.99 FIP (fielding independent pitching) tally is the third best total over his 10 seasons, and his 0.6 HR/9 leads the big leagues. He gave the Twins 163.0 IP (second on the club behind Kyle Gibson), while walking a career low 2.4 batters per nine innings. He will set a new career best walk total (currently 43) and likely will give up less than 200 hits for just the second time over the course of a full season. In short, Mike Pelfrey has been everything the Twins have needed at the back end of their rotation.
     
    Although sometimes seen as a dangerous starter, and notably someone who hasn't gone as deep as would be hoped in games, the narrative goes the other way as well. He has given up two earned runs or less in 17 of his 29 starts, while pitching into the 7th inning or later in 10 starts. Compiling a 2.0 fWAR for Minnesota, he'll post the third best mark of his career.
     
    One of the biggest obstacles for Pelfrey as a Twin has been his health. In 2015, he has thrown more than 100 pitches in 10 starts, staying healthy for the first time. The health boost has been noticeable in his ability as well. With an average fastball velocity of 93mph (2nd highest of career and best since 2007), as well as a sinker averaging 93.3 mph (3rd highest of career, best since 2012, Pelfrey's effectiveness has been no doubt boosted.
     
    Following the final week of the season, Pelfrey will ride off into the sunset. Most Twins fans will still struggle with the undeniable tie Pelfrey has to injuries and ineffectiveness during his tenure here. However, in a season where the Twins came out of nowhere, it was Pelfrey that held things down every 5th day.
     
    Knowing there's prospects on the way to take his place helps to ease the transition. The Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer's of the world are going to raise the floor of what the Twins expect a 5th starter to be. For 2015 though, it was Mike Pelfrey that did the job, and did so at a very respectable level.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    For the first time since 2010, the Minnesota Twins are going to finish with a winning record. With just a handful of games left, they find themselves in the thick of a playoff race, and first year manager Paul Molitor has breathed life into a club so desperately needing it. Maybe most importantly though, the Twins have turned pitching woes into a strength at a critical juncture.
     
    Needing to keep pace with clubs such as the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, and Los Angeles Angels, the Twins were going to need to win in all facets of the game. Defense has been significantly improved in 2015, and the offense has been carried the final month by players like Miguel Sano and Torii Hunter. On the mound though, the starting pitching has been a tale of two totally different players.
     
    On one hand, Minnesota has seen an ace form out of the very place it was expected. Signing him to a four-year, $55 million deal this offseason, the Twins have been powered by the arm of Ervin Santana. Despite missing the first half due to a PED suspension, it's been the final stretch in which Santana has looked every bit the part of a lights out staff ace. Backing him up is a guy on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Rookie pitcher Tyler Duffey has taken an opportunity afforded after a second recall, and completely run with it.
     
    At this point, both pitchers have thrown their last outings in the month of September. Santana went seven complete innings in four out of his five outings, going eight in the other. He compiled a 4-0 record to the tune of a 1.75 ERA, .211/.279/.297 slash line against, and an 8.5 K/9. Duffey went 3-0 in five starts, owning a 2.35 ERA, .237/.287/.316 slash line against, and an 8.0 K/9. By all respective measures, both pitchers have been near flawless for the Twins at the most important time.
     
    With things where they are currently, the Twins path to the postseason is still very much an uphill climb. Should they get there, only one of the two stars is eligible to pitch (with Santana being ineligible for the postseason). However, the production over the season's final month highlights something vastly more important for Molitor, Terry Ryan, and the Twins.
     
    Despite what has taken place in 2015, this wasn't the Twins opening of their next window. The winning at a high level was expected to begin in 2016. It could be argued however, that the most unknown commodity going forward was what Minnesota had on the mound. Right now, it looks like both Santana and Duffey have answered those questions.
     
    The Twins will no doubt have Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson locked into starting roles for the upcoming season. Duffey's impressive rookie run, and his even more impressive curveball, have forced him into the discussion as well. For a team that should be in an even better place a year from now, having too much talent to juggle is something anyone can get behind.
     
    September baseball has been fun in Twins Territory again this year, and while there's plenty of production to highlight, it's been Santana and Duffey that have paved the way. One expected, one out of nowhere, Minnesota has enjoyed watching two players look like shutdown aces for well over the past month, and it's been a very welcomed change.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins found themselves drafting with the top 10 once again this season, after a fourth straight 90 loss season in 2014. With an already stacked minor league talent pool, another strong draft was only going to add to it. Having watched 2015 be the success it has been, draft position will change dramatically next season. That said, it's time to take a look back on what has been accomplished.
     
    Now that all of the minor league seasons are completed, let's take a look at the Twins top ten picks of the 2015 Major League Baseball draft, and see how their professional career started.
     
    Sean Miller Rd 10 (290th overall)
     
    Miller was drafted as a college shortstop and assigned initially to the Appy league by the Twins. He lasted all of 11 games there. While he didn't light the league on fire by any means, a promotion was deemed necessary. Miller finished the season playing in 26 games for the Cedar Rapids Kernels, acting as Nick Gordon's double play partner at second base. He slashed .284/.311/.324 across 102 at bats, and helped power Cedar Rapids to a runner up finish in the Midwest League. Look for him to join Gordon at Fort Myers sometime in 2016.
     
    LaMonte Wade Rd 9 (260th overall)
     
    Like Miller, Wade was a college prospect and was sent to the Appy league. Unlike Miller though, Wade stayed for 64 games. He made a mockery of the level also. Slashing .312/.428/.506 in his first professional experience, Wade was on fire. His nine home runs and five triples suggest that he has the ability to flash both speed and power. Wade was promoted to Cedar Rapids for their playoff run, and started in the outfield under Jake Mauer. He should begin 2016 with the Kernels.
     
    Kolton Kendrick Rd 8 (230th overall)
     
    One of the Twins "lottery" type picks, Kendrick is a bopper. Known for his big swing and power, he's been heralded as the type you hope puts it together. Coming out of high-school though, he was going to be a long ways away. Kendrick played 24 games at the Rookie level with the Gulf Coast Twins in 2015. He slashed .200/.371/.271. Surprisingly, he went homerless in his first professional season. Kendrick could repeat the GCL or head to E-Town next year.
     
    Jovani Moran Rd 7 (200th overall)
     
    Just 18, Moran was extremely raw when the Twins took him from Puerto Rico. The lefty was sent to the GCL and started six games. He owned a 4.12 ERA across 19.2 professional innings. His 17 strikeouts to nine walks was a decent ratio, and he held opposing hitters to a .219 average.
     
    Chris Paul Rd 6 (170th overall)
     
    A college selection from UC Berkeley, Paul grabbed himself his first promotion in his first professional season. Pounding Appalachian League pitching for E-Town, Paul slashed .302/.375/.488 with three homers and 16 runs batted in. He was also given 12 games of work at Cedar Rapids, mainly at DH. Although Paul only slashed .244/.277/.356 for the Kernels, he helped them down the stretch and in the playoffs. He'll probably begin 2016 in Iowa.
     
    Alex Robinson Rd 5 (140th overall)
     
    Robinson was also selected out of Maryland, a teammate of LaMonte Wade's. He pitched in 10 games, all in the Appalachian League for E-Town. In 12.0 innings, he gave up 13 runs (12 earned) while walking 16 and striking out 15. It was a rough professional debut, but the 21 year old should be expected to progress moving things forward. We could see him in Cedar Rapids in early 2016.
    Trey Cabbage Rd 4 (110th overall)
     
    Another high school selection, Cabbage will still be 18 when the 2016 season starts. He debuted with the Gulf Coast Twins and got in 33 games before back issues sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Cabbage had an up and down debut, with a final slash line resting at .252/.302/.269. Just two extra base hits in 33 games, Minnesota no doubt would have liked to see more, but it's uncertain what can be attributed to the injury. Cabbage will probably be slow-played to start 2016.
    Travis Blankenhorn Rd 3 (80th overall)
     
    Already being ranked on some of Baseball America's watch lists, Blankenhorn earned a 2015 promotion as well. He played in 14 GCL games as well as 39 games for E-Town. As a whole, the 19 year-old slashed .244/.321/.347 in his first professional season. He picked up three homers (all at E-Town) along with seven doubles and two triples. Blankenhorn will be a name to watch over the next couple of seasons.
    Kyle Cody Rd 2 (competitive balance)
     
    The Twins whiffed in selecting Kyle Cody with their competitive balance picked. The Kentucky Wildcat pitcher decided not to sign and instead will return to college. In the upcoming draft, the Twins have been awarded the 74th overall pick by not signing Cody.
    Tyler Jay Rd 1 (6th overall)
     
    Drafted as a reliever, with the idea he could start, the Twins wanted to rush Jay to the big leagues. That plan was halted when he gave up six earned in his first 6.2 professional innings. From there though, the former Fighting Illini pitcher was lights out. Jay ended the season for the Fort Myers Miracle with 11.2 innings of 2 run ball with 14 strikeouts and a .171/.261/.244 slash line against. He also did not give up an earned run over his last seven outings. With the idea he should be stretched out to start, Jay will probably begin 2016 back at High-A Fort Myers.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins weren't supposed to be much of anything this season. Paul Molitor was expected to inherit a team finishing closer to 90 losses than 90 wins. September would be another month highlighted by call-ups and talks of the future. Then the season happened, and none of that took place. Looking at the offseason, it's Terry Ryan's recent decisions that provide the biggest bright spot for what will be an extremely important 2016.
     
    In 2014, the Minnesota Twins were taking on water and going nowhere fast. A fourth straight 90 loss season had very few highlights, but one of the greatest was a trade that got very little respect. Twins GM Terry Ryan grabbed Sam Fuld off of the Oakland Athletics scrap heap. Entering the season with little outfield depth, Fuld was a need for Minnesota. Then as the roster shifted later in the season, Fuld became an even bigger asset.
     
    With the Athletics poised for a postseason run, Oakland wanted its speedster and defensive asset back in the fold. In return, they sent major league caliber starting pitcher Tommy Milone to the Twins. Milone owns a 4.08 ERA across 21 starts for the Twins in 2015. At times, he's looked like their best starter. His 6.3 K/9 is amongst the best of his career, and being under team control until 2019 makes him a valuable depth piece. For virtually nothing, Ryan had worked a great deal for his club.
     
    Then, with the Twins in position to make a playoff run this season, Ryan did it again. This time, Minnesota would be on the market for relief pitching. A bad bullpen needed help down the stretch, but shying away from sacrificing the future needed to remain the goal.
     
    Ryan plucked Chih-Wei Hu from High-A Fort Myers and sent him to Tampa Bay for Kevin Jepsen. Hu was having a great season (2.38 ERA across 16 starts in the organization), but he was never regarded as a top prospect. As little more than a lottery ticket, and with pitching depth abundant for the Twins, Ryan cashed in for a strong major league asset.
     
    Jepsen joined the Twins with a 2.81 ERA in 46 games for the Rays. Since getting to Minnesota, his 1.96 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 7.8 K/9 marks have all been even better than what he left. He's also filled in as closer (7 saves) for an injured Glen Perkins. On top of that, Ryan once again got a controllable asset in that Jepsen doesn't hit free agency until 2017.
     
    Two seasons, two great trades. Now what's next?
     
    As Minnesota embarks on the offseason and begins to prepare for the 2016 season, there should be plenty of roster shuffling. In looking at the landscape of the organization, I was able to come up with just 14 players who should be considered roster locks. That group would include: Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Glen Perkins, Ervin Santana, Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario. That gives us a starting point.
     
    Based on the above grouping, the Twins should have three of their five starters accounted for (Gibson/Hughes/Santana), two relievers (Jepsen/Perkins), second basemen (Dozier), first basemen (Mauer), and third basemen (Plouffe). What that means, is that there's plenty of roster uncertainty left. In a season the Twins should begin to start a chain of consecutive playoff seasons, it will be on Ryan to improve and remove that uncertainty.
     
    Thankfully, the Twins have some expendable assets down on the farm. There's maybe not room for Jorge Polanco, Oswaldo Arcia could be on the outs; what happens to Vargas or Santana? How does Max Kepler fit, and are all of the promising relief arms going to make their debuts with the Twins? Each of those questions need answers, but in packaging some of the questions as assets, Ryan could boost the Twins from outside.
     
    It's fun knowing that the Twins organization has one of the best farm systems in the league, and it's tough feeling an excitement to seeing those players realize their potential. The fact of the matter though is that not all will, at least here. Minnesota should find themselves relatively active in the trade market over the winter, Ryan absolutely has the pieces to move. Pushing the floor higher by executing more Jepsen type trades (proven/quality major league talent) should be part of the blueprint.
     
    It's far too early to speculate who Ryan and the Twins may target, or who they may deal. What isn't too early to tell however, is that when looking at recent trade history, Terry Ryan absolutely knows what he's doing.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Doug Mientkiewicz was more of a fan favorite than he ever was a prolific Twins player. Just under a .280 hitter over the course of seven seasons, Dougie baseball clubbed 43 home runs and 266 runs batted in. He was a Gold Glove winner once, and an integral part of some good Twins teams. Now back in the fold as a minor league manager, he could be the one that got away.
     
    When Mientkiewicz left the Twins as a player, he turned into somewhat of a journeyman. Playing six more season in the big leagues, and never for the same team, his career was never again what it was under Ron Gardenhire. As a manager though, the expectation should be that Dougie Baseball finds himself as more of a staple.
     
    After Minnesota fired Gardenhire following the 2014 season, consideration was given to Mientkiewicz for the big league managerial job. Ultimately we know that Paul Molitor ended up with the post, and Mientkiewicz was assigned to the super team on the farm, the Chattanooga Lookouts.
     
    A year removed from an 82-57 record and a Florida State League title with the Fort Myers Miracle, Mientkiewicz was tasked to follow up the performance. Given players like Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano, it seemed like the Lookouts team was all but destined to do just that. Inevitably however, promotions happened, and Mientkiewicz was forced to get creative in Tennessee. Doing just that, the end result wound up being the same, with the Lookouts boasting a 76-61 record and winning the Southern League Title.
     
    That brings us to where we are today. Doug Mientkiewicz now owns a 237-174 record as a manager, and has won a league title in both of the last two seasons. His .577 winning percentage is impressive on it's own, and the titles simply add more weight to his list of accomplishments. While the track record is great to admire, it's quite possibly ready to become a detriment to the Twins.
     
    Going into 2016, Minnesota will have some roster decisions to make, but getting Mientkiewicz to the big leagues is going to be a must. In a recent radio interview in the Twin Cities, Mientkiewicz said, "That's the goal at the end of this thing for me, obviously I wanted it to be with us." Managing at the highest level still remains his goal, but the Twins will need to delay that the best way they can.
     
    For Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor, the delay may come in the form of adding Mientkiewicz to the big league staff in a prominent role. Whether it be a bench coach, or one of the base coaches, Doug is looking for more. As soon as teams are able, other major league franchises will be knocking at his door.
     
    Whether or not Mientkiewicz is ready to leave the Twins again is only known by him. It would be best served by Minnesota to delay that process as long as possible. He has all the makings of a great coach, and seeing him leave this early would be unfortunate.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have 13 games left in the 2015 Major League Baseball season. As things stand currently, they have 76 wins, and will likely need to get at least 84 to make the playoffs. 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race, the Twins path to the postseason will go through the AL Central.
     
    Earlier this morning, I dissected the Twins final slate. The rest of the way, they have a three game home series with the Indians, travel to Detroit for three, then to Cleveland for four, before finishing with three against the Royals at home. Looking at what I believe it will take to play in October, here's where I see Minnesota needing wins:
     
    vs Indians win 2
    @ Tigers win 3
    @ Indians win 2
    vs Royals win 2
     
    In total, that would put Paul Molitor's squad at 85 wins and 77 losses. Detroit is all but cooked, at 69-79 17.5 games back in the AL Central. The Royals likely will be resting players in a meaningless series to end the regular season. That has the Twins postseason chances hanging in the balance with the Indians in their way.
     
    Picked by Sports Illustrated to win the World Series, the Indians are not going to make that a reality. What they could do though, playing Minnesota in over half of the Twins final games, is end the cinderella run to the playoffs for their divisional foe. Coincidentally, it was the Indians pitching staff that was routinely noted as why Cleveland would be in the postseason hunt. Now that is the same group that could end the Twins chances.
     
    With the probables set for the home series, Minnesota will face Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber, and Cody Anderson. That means the Twins should see Kluber, Anderson, Carlos Carrasco, and Josh Tomlin when the teams face of next week at Progressive Field. If Minnesota is going to go on a ridiculous 9-4 run to close out the season, they are absolutely going to have to earn it.
     
    On the year, Salazar has dominated the Twins. He's struck out 21 batters in 13 innings, and he's ceded just three runs across his two performances. Kluber got off to a rocky start in 2015, but has been lights out since. Despite coming off of the DL and likely having a pitch limit, he's always a threat to hold a team down. Both Carrasco and Tomlin have given the Indians quality production this season, and with the Twins all but knowing their fate during the four gamer in Ohio, both outings will be magnified.
     
    Minnesota and Cleveland have played 12 times this season. So far, the Twins have won seven of the matchups, and are 4-3 at home, while being 3-3 on the road. If Paul Molitor's club is going to follow the earlier proposed win schedule, they'll need to finish 11-8 against Terry Francona's club.
     
    Working in the Twins favor is the current offensive production from formerly slumping players. Torii Hunter, who slashed just .130/218/.246 in the month of August, has been on fire in September. The 40 year-old has hit .356/.377/.559 with 3 HR and 11 RBI thus far this month. He's been joined by Trevor Plouffe, who just ended an 11 game hit streak in which he slashed .378/.439/.676 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Add in the noted production of Miguel Sano, and the fact that Eduardo Escobar has hit .321/.353/.616 since Aug 18, and the Twins offense has pieces.
     
    For Minnesota, it will come down to the pitching matchups keeping them in the game. The three game home series will feature Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. The first and last have been great of late, while Hughes has scuffled since coming off of the DL. Knowing the importance of the road series as well, I'd hope Molitor is looking to get some order of Tyler Duffey, Santana, Gibson, and Hughes to square off during the road series.
     
    At this point, it's a definite uphill battle for the Twins to squeak their way into the postseason. If they can hold down their own win column, watching the Astros, Rangers, and Angels beat each other up could be a lot of fun. Taking one game at a time, Minnesota has familiar foes ahead, and the Indians most often.
     
    If Molitor's club has a few more dance parties left in the tank, it'd be best served to bring them all out now.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    After stumbling to a 90 loss season in 2013, the Minnesota Twins found themselves awarded the 5th overall pick in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft. With a couple of different options at their disposal, Terry Ryan and company went with high school shortstop Nick Gordon. With a lineage of great baseball surrounding him, and big league defensive skills showing already, Gordon was going to be a worthwhile project. In 2015 though, he's been the catalyst for what could be a Championship winning Cedar Rapids Kernels team.
     
    Gordon spent his first professional season in the Appalachian Rookie League with the Elizabethton Twins. Despite a bat that would need time, he slashed .294/.333/.366 with 11 extra base hits in 57 games. The test though would come in his first full season of pro ball at the Low-A level. Sent to Cedar Rapids to begin 2015 at age 19, Gordon would be pushed early.
     
    Through May 31, or the first 45 games of the season, the brother of Miami Marlins Dee Gordon found himself slashing just .230/.305/.281. With a brother pacing the NL in average, the other Gordon was doing anything but. Just five doubles and two triples under his belt, Gordon's speed was kept in check on the bases as well. Then, as spring turned to summer in Iowa, Gordon got going.
     
    From June 1 until the end of the Cedar Rapids season, a period of 75 games, Nick Gordon paced the lineup with a .304/.355/.406 slash line. He roped 18 doubles, legged out five triples, and clubbed his first home run of the year. Gordon also scored 48 runs, drove in another 35, and stole 13 bases. The shortstop had now embarked into "offensive threat" territory.
     
    Helping to push the Kernels to a 77-63 record on the season, Gordon fueled a playoff destined offense. With Cedar Rapids looking to grab a Midwest League title, it's been Gordon once again in the middle of it all. Prior to a 4-1 loss on Thursday to the West Michigan Whitecaps, Cedar Rapids was a perfect 5-0 in the playoffs. For Gordon, he's slashed .400/.407/.480 with two doubles and three runs across six games.
     
    Now just two games away from lifting the end of the season hardware, it will likely be Gordon again that helps to push the Kernels to the finish line. Turning five double plays and making just one error in 55.0 innings, Gordon continues to get it done on both sides of the field. Still just 19, but eyeing the next level, it's season's like 2015 that the Twins envisioned out of Gordon when they took him.
     
    For the immediate future, shortstop will be manned by Eduardo Escobar or whatever free agent the Twins choose to bring in over the offseason. Down the line though, Nick Gordon continues to trend in the right direction, and 2015 has been a nice launching pad for the Kernels star.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    On June 14, 2015, the Minnesota Twins embarked on what they hoped would be a monumental day in the history of the franchise. Drafted 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Bryon Buxton was finally a member of the Twins active roster. Billed as baseball's best prospect, the expectations were through the roof. Now three months into his career, things haven't gone as expected.
     
    Or maybe they have.
     
    As of this writing, Buxton has played in 34 games, and slashed a paltry .202/.242/.272. He has one triple, six doubles, and just 23 hits in 114 at bats. He's struck out 39 times while drawing only five free bases. To put it lightly, the offensive output has been less than stellar. What is hasn't been though is unexpected.
     
    Buxton tore up the farm system. He's a career .301/.383/.489 hitter across four seasons, and he batted .400/.441/.545 in 13 games at the Triple-A level this season. That's indicative more of what he's capable of than it is what should have been expected. Coming to the big leagues, Buxton was a Gold Glove caliber defender from the onset, but the bat was going to take some time.
     
    At this point, Buxton's offensive repertoire is a direct reflection of his speed. He is putting the ball on the ground at a 47.8% rate as well as owning a 21.2 infield hit percentage. On top of needing to adjust to big league pitching, Buxton is doing himself few favors in regards to the strike zone. Swinging at 32.3% of pitches outside of the zone, he's chasing far too often. Reflected in his 69.3% contact rate, Buxton has room to improve when it comes to putting his pitch in play.
     
    Aside from the numbers, Buxton has always been expected to hit, in time. Given a 70 grade by MLB.com scouts, he's regarded as close to a sure thing at the plate. In time, the tools should absolutely become reality, and allow the former number one prospect to provide plus value at the plate. For now, that value is evidenced in other aspects.
     
    Not going well at the plate, it's integral that Buxton find himself playing (and contributing) in the field often. Thus far, he's done exactly that. Playing 283 defensive innings in centerfield for the Twins, Buxton has already been worth 4 DRS (defensive runs saved). As things stand, Buxton would be on pace for 21 DRS over the course of 162 games. That mark would trail only Kevin Kiermaier's 38 this season for centerfielders in all of baseball.
     
    In his first taste with the Twins, Buxton has not only gained extremely valuable experience, but he's given insight of what is, and what will be. Right now, a raw hitter and an incredibly good defender, Buxton is only half of the puzzle. What he should be expected to do, is draw his hitting ability more closer to that he has displayed with his glove.
     
    Looking forward, Buxton's floor might be something like a better version of Mike Cameron. A guy that was a career .249/.338/.444 hitter and compiled a 50.7 fWAR across 16 seasons. Both offensively and defensively, Buxton should be superior at his worst. Looking at a doomsday scenario though, the Twins could do much worse.
     
    Speculating about the ceiling probably isn't fair. Buxton remains an incredible athlete and should be expected to take significant strides forward in 2016. Reaching his potential, he could find himself being a perennial All Star.
     
    Keeping things in perspective, it's best to remember that what Buxton is providing the Twins in 2015 is far less important than what the Twins are providing him. Allowing the floor to be raised, Buxton's future is only a glimmer at this point, but it still remains plenty bright.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    This season, the Minnesota Twins have risen well above expectations. More likely to lose 90 games than be a playoff team, Paul Molitor has his squad in a very unexpected position. Getting key contributions from big names like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, the Twins offense has been rolling of late. There's another star that has not gotten near the publicity deserved however.
     
    Trevor Plouffe.
     
    Thought of as a placeholder at third base until Sano forced a position changed for either himself or Plouffe, it has been Trevor who has evolved into a lunch-pail type player. After a breakout season in 2014, Plouffe has followed it up by coming to the field every day and simply getting it done. Putting substantial credibility into his impressive 2014 campaign, Plouffe is on pace for plenty of career highs this season.
     
    Through 135 games (which is just one shy of his career high) Plouffe owns a .250/.313/.445 slash line. To this point, the Twins third-basemen has 127 hits, 31 doubles, four triples, 20 home runs, 79 runs batted in, and 44 walks. Per FanGraphs, Plouffe owns a 2.6 fWAR the second highest mark of his career.
     
    Looking at detractors, the biggest slide has been Plouffe's defensive prowess. A year after posting a career best 6 DRS (defensive runs saved) at the hot corner, he owns a -2 mark this season. Plouffe's UZR (ultimate zone rating) has also taken a hit falling from 6.7 a year ago to just 2.7 this season. Effectively however, that's where the negatives end.
     
    On pace to accumulate new career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples (already accomplished), runs batted in, and potentially walks and home runs, 2015 has been a smashing success. The 29 year-old former first round pick has begun to enter his prime, and the Twins are better for it. With Dozier and Sano slotting in close to him in the lineup, it has been Plouffe that has provided the stability.
     
    Going forward, much has been made about the eventual position change that either Plouffe or Sano will need to make. Despite Plouffe having played everything but catcher, pitcher, and centerfield at the major league level, that decision doesn't need to be made yet. Plouffe can spell Joe Mauer when he needs to, and Sano can operate as the team's primary designated hitter. No matter how Molitor chooses to utilize Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer, there's room for each in the foreseeable future.
     
    Knowing what Plouffe brings to the Twins, it's probably best for Minnesota to be looking to pay him, rather than to trade him. Currently signed on a one-year $4.8 million deal, arbitration will become expensive in 2016. Not a free agent until 2018, Minnesota could do right by Plouffe and save themselves some money by buying out the next two years of arbitration while grabbing a year of free agency in the process.
     
    At 32 years-old in 2018, Plouffe should still be expected to be roughly the same player he currently is. Minnesota has been the beneficiary of a California kid who has gotten it done in a big way the last two seasons. It's now time to make sure he's part of the future as well.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    In the middle of the cold Minnesota winter, Terry Ryan made his first splash during the hot stove period in inking fan-favorite Torii Hunter to a one-year $10.5 million contract. At the time of the signing, I hated the move. While the personnel that influenced parts of that opinion has changed drastically since, bringing Torii back for 2016 should be met with the same amount of distaste.
     
    At 40 years old coming into 2015, expectations needed to be admittedly muted for the former Gold Glove award winner. No better a defender than the supplanted Oswaldo Arcia at this point in his career, Minnesota was paying a hefty chunk of change for a "leadership" characteristic. Whether that leadership has paid off or not is unquantifiable. In his first press conference, Torii got heated with local media. He then redeemed himself by rejuvenating a clubhouse with post-victory dance celebrations. There's been a bit of both, but it's been arguably more bad than good.
     
    What Torii has given the Twins on the field is a whole different story however.
     
    To date in 2015, Hunter has played 118 games, the lowest total since his age 33 season (119 for the Angels). He's slashed just .234/.290/.399 with 18 home runs (the most since 2011) and 64 RBI. Prior to the All Star Break, Hunter's .257/.312/.444 line with 14 HR and 49 RBI looked the part of a middle-aged, producer in the outfield. Then there came the decline. Since August 1st, Hunter has been given 25 starts, slashing just .165/.238/.275 and given the Twins just six extra base hits.
     
    Offensively, it has been easy to see the stark contrast in Hunter's first and second half of his 2015 season. On the defensive side, things haven't been pretty either, but the performance (or lack thereof) has been a consistent negative. In 2015, Hunter has been worth -11 DRS (defensive runs saved) as well as a -1.7 UZ (ultimate zone rating), and -2.6 UZR/150. His four errors are the second highest total of his career, despite playing in the third lowest amount of games. To sum it up, the perceived defensive liability has been every bit as was imagined.
     
    Coming into the 2015 season, Minnesota and Terry Ryan had a pass in the debatable move of Hunter's acquisition. Veteran leadership was no doubt a needed commodity, and the outfield had plenty of question marks on it's own. In 2016, Minnesota will still remain somewhat light on the veteran aspect of things, but the outfield is now a position of strength, sans Hunter.
     
    There's no logical way for Hunter to expect the same kind of payday he received this season, but even at a massive discount, there's a bigger issue at play. Fangraphs quantifies Hunter's worth in 2015 at $700k (he's been worth just 0.1fWAR). While $700k is nothing in terms of a contract, the roster spot is worth so much more to the Twins. On a big league team with options, Hunter occupying one of them doesn't seem like a good decision.
     
    A year from now, Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, and some combination of Max Kepler, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kennys Vargas will make up the outfield and designated hitter contingent for the Twins. With six of the 25 roster spots being spoken for with that grouping, adding Hunter to that equation seems like a tough ask. It's a tough decision for a team paying homage to a former great, but moving forward, it's an easy ask.
     
    Hunter's 2015 struggles as the season comes to a close help to usher in the change. It doesn't need to be a solid boot out the door, but Hunter's sunset ride can continue to take place. 2015 has been a season of exceeded expectations, and while the veteran leadership portion has been of benefit, things begin and end there.
     
    Someday Torii Hunter be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame, and maybe have his number retired. The post playing days beginning in 2016 will help to usher in that next phase. Hunter's performance has started the process, and the Twins must follow suit.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently, David Ortiz launched his 500th HR for the Boston Red Sox. In doing so, he has entered into one of baseball's sacred number territories. Joining a group that is supposed to all but guarantee Hall of Fame admittance, Ortiz's story began in Minnesota. With the career coming to an end, another Twins prospect may be following in similar footsteps.
     
    At 21 years-old, Ortiz made his major league debut for the Twins. A power hitting prospect, Ortiz was expected to hold down the heart of the lineup for years to come. In his first 15 games, he slashed .327/.353/.449 with one home run, and six runs batted in. Still needing to grow into his frame, it was a promising start for what was always expected to be more.
     
    Fast forward six seasons, and Ortiz had compiled a .266/.348/.461 slash line for Minnesota. His 58 home runs and 238 RBI averaged out to just 9.6 and 39.6 per year respectively. For a guy who left plenty to be desired in the field, the paltry numbers weren't going to help a Twins team looking to turn the corner. Terry Ryan made the decision to hand Ortiz his walking papers.
     
    In the 13 seasons since, Ortiz has gone on to become "Big Papi" for the Boston Red Sox. He's compiled a .289/.385/.566 slash line and has launched 442 homers with 1,390 runs batted in. Ortiz launched 30 or more home runs nine times in that span, and has been at the heart of three World Series titles.
     
    Forget the fact that Ortiz likely won't be getting his due in Cooperstown any time soon (he can thank PEDs for that), or that he's tortured the Twins throughout his career. Minnesota may be in a position to watch it unfold all over again.
     
    At the age of 22, back in 2013, Minnesota saw the debut of Venezuelan outfielder Oswaldo Arcia. Like Ortiz, Arcia was an expected power threat that couldn't be much more than a defensive liability. In his first 219 games for Minnesota, Arcia has slashed .243/.305/.437. The Twins have seen 36 home runs from Arcia, and he's driven in 108 runs, those are numbers Minnesota would have liked to see in a single year.
     
    Outside of the defensive issues, Arcia has a couple of other pretty large detractors working against him. Inside of the batter's box, Arcia owns a career 259/58 K/BB ratio. That equates to roughly 4.5 strikeouts per walks, and striking out in about one-third of his at bats. Then there's the attitude problems. A guy who rarely seems to show max effort, and often reacts emotionally, Minnesota has failed to draw his full potential.
     
    Now with 2015 coming to a close, and 2016 being a pivotal point, Terry Ryan will have to decide his plan of action.
     
    Arcia enters 2016 out of options. Should he start the season with the Twins, Minnesota would have to expose him to waivers in sending him to the farm. On a team that already is going to have Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario in the outfield, Arcia is going to struggle to find time. Should he play in a reserve role, Arcia will then have his maturity and resolve tested.
     
    As things stand, the path Arcia has traveled has somewhat resembled Ortiz's career for the Twins. While I'm not ready to say Arcia figures it out for someone else, I'm also not sure I'd be ok with Terry Ryan finding out. The last player the Twins let get away should be someday preparing a Hall of Fame speech, the next one they may let get away has a crossroads approaching very soon.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    In recent seasons, the Minnesota Twins have not been in the best position to make moves at the trade deadline. A winning club for the first time since 2010, Terry Ryan was awarded a new opportunity this season. With a handful of different upgrade possibilities at his disposal, it was the bullpen piece that he acquired making it two straight slam dunk deals for the Twins.
     
    A season after snagging major league quality starter Tommy Milone from the Athletics, Ryan turned his attention to a pitching starved pen. The Twins bullpen had been one of the worst in the big leagues through the first half of 2015, and if the club was even going to sniff a playoff opportunity, finishing games needed to be less stressful.
     
    As the deadline drew to a close, Ryan sent lottery ticket prospect Chih-Wei Hu to the the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran Kevin Jepsen. Despite Hu owning a sub 3.00 ERA for the Fort Myers Miracle, he was a fringe prospect that Minnesota turned into a major league commodity. Jepsen came to the Twins under a one-year, $3.03 million deal and a year of team control in 2016.
     
    Despite a potentially concerning 4.20 FIP for the Rays, and an ugly first outing for the Twins, Jepsen has been everything Minnesota has needed. Since that first blow-up outing, Jepsen has allowed just a single earned run across 18.1 IP. He's given up just nine hits, and five walks, while striking out 17 in that span. Allowing just a .141/.203/.188 slash line against, his 0.49 ERA is dazzling. To say Jepsen has revitalized the Twins bullpen would be an understatement.
     
    Jepsen has also taken aim at some of his own peripherals. The once inflated FIP has settled in at 3.04 with the Twins. He's also hitting the strike zone 64% of the time, compared to 61% while with the Rays. Then there's the added responsibility that the newest Twins reliever has taken on.
     
    Despite Glen Perkins being baseball's best closer through the first half of the season, the second half has been a different story. Marred by injury, Minnesota's 9th inning role was up in the air, until Jepsen stepped in. He's picked up seven saves for the Twins (blowing none). Just one run has crossed in those seven innings, and he's fanned nine while giving up just four hits. Not traditionally a closer (just 12 saves in 7 seasons prior to his time with the Twins), Jepsen has looked every bit the part.
     
    Maybe somewhat poetically, a closer is absolutely what Minnesota and Terry Ryan were hoping for in Jepsen. With a renewed sense of purpose in 2015, a bullpen unable to hold onto leads and close out games wasn't going to get it done. Targeting a low cost option, with future benefit, Jepsen has proved to be an acquisition that Minnesota can look back and smile upon.
     
    Over the course of the season, prolonged strength in relief hasn't been something the Twins could much point to. Aside from Perkins, Trevor May, and times of Blaine Boyer, things have been bleak. When Minnesota needed it most though, they got Kevin Jepsen, and became better for it.
     
    Whether the Twins make the playoffs or not, Jepsen has been a diamond in the rough for Molitor and Neil Allen. He's been at the center of Minnesota's September pursuits, and should be expected to continue that trend into 2016 as well.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    So here we are, the 2015 Major League Baseball season is quickly rumbling to a finish, and the Minnesota Twins have made it a relevant year. In the playoff hunt, and playing meaningful September baseball, the Twins are in a good place. With the performance though, there are no doubt players that have taken steps forward. The question is, does Kyle Gibson qualify among them?
     
    Coming into the season, Gibson was a pitcher I expected a lot out of. A former first round pick and top Twins pitching prospect, Gibson needed to push the envelope. Now 27 years old, his experience was teetering into veteran territory, and there's no doubt that Minnesota was hoping the results would follow. With new pitching coach Neil Allen getting to work with him for the first time, Gibson had plenty of opportunity in front of him.
     
    The lone full season in his career at the big league level, 2014, Gibson owned a 4.47 ERA in 31 starts for a bad Twins team. He pitched 179.1 innings, struck out 107, walked 57, gave up 12 home runs, and owned a 1.310 WHIP. For all intents and purposes, the numbers were mediocre across the board. On a team with bad starters, Gibson was an ok-at-best back-end option. With a retooled 2015 rotation, the Twins were hoping Gibson could push towards possessing the middle-to-top type stuff he once was billed as.
     
    In 2015 (as of this writing), Gibson owns a 3.87 ERA. He's started 28 games and has pitched 172.0 innings. The former Missouri Tiger has struck out 119 batters and walked 57, while allowing a career high 16 home runs. All told, he's compiled a 1.291 WHIP in 2015. On the surface, it's somewhat difficult to suggest what context that gives the year-by-year improvement Gibson has seen. Taking a closer look starts to open things up however.
     
    First, the start Gibson has was simply brilliant. From April 15 through May 30, Gibson was one of the best in the big leagues. A span of nine starts saw him throw to the tune of a 1.85 ERA and just a .237/.302/.363 slash line against. An rough stretch in the middle of the year inflated things, but then has once again been evened out by a strong finish. In four starts since August 22, Gibson owns a 3.20 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to slash just .228/.291/.315 off of him.
     
    Continuing with a beginning and end trend, Gibson actually has fared the opposite over the course of games themselves. In 2015, the first inning has been one of his worst. Allowing 17 first inning runs and 34 hits, Gibson has been hit around to a 5.46 ERA in getting the first three outs of a game. As contests go on as well, his finish has been difficult. Reaching the sixth inning in 24 of his 28 starts (and advancing beyond just 11 times), the righty owns a 6.52 ERA.
     
    What he has done well though is bounce back. In the second inning, and high leverage situations, Gibson has been at his best. In the second, Gibson owns a 2.25 ERA, and has allowed just eight runs. After pitching to less than advantageous situations, he's allowed opposing hitters to bat just .219/.319/.281 (his lowest slash line allowed across three possible situations).
     
    Quite possibly the biggest improvement Gibson has seen in 2015 is being great when good, and well, less bad when bad. To be fair, every pitcher has better numbers when generating a win than a loss, but Gibson has bee drastically more impressive. In 2014, the Twins starter owned a 1.42 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 5.7 K/9 in wins. He was hit around to the tune of an 11.04 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, and just a 4.6 K/9 in losses. 2015 has been a different story. This season, it's a dazzling 0.87 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9 in wins, with a better 7.38 ERA, 1.752 WHIP, and 6.0 K/9 in losses. Capitalizing on success, and limiting the damage, it's been a complete improvement for the former top prospect.
     
    Having taken a deeper diver into the good, it seems that Gibson is, if nothing else, targeted in his excellence. Needing to settle in and focus, he's at his best. Being stretched out and coming into a game, he can be taken advantage of. It's not all positive however.
     
    Arguably the most concerning numbers Kyle Gibson has produced in 2015 fall into the peripheral statistics category. Looking at FIP (fielding independent pitching) and BB/9, there's some cause for concern. Gibson owns a 4.07 FIP last year (compared to a 3.80 FIP in 2014) and a 3.0 BB/9 (up just 0.1 over 2014). There's some explanation for the former, but maybe not for the latter.
     
    A season ago, the Twins were historically bad defensively, especially in the outfield. For a guy who utilizes the ground ball, pitches shouldn't get to the outfield. Owning a 54.4% ground ball rate in 2014, the 52.7% mark this season is a step backwards. His increased line drive percentage (19.0% in 2014, 20.2% in 2015) also doesn't help things. While the outfield defense is markedly better now, Gibson is also making it work harder behind him.
     
    Although Gibson isn't walking a a much higher rate of batters, the fact that it hasn't decreased is less than ideal. Improvement in the strikeout category is a nice plus, but for a guy fanning only six per nine on average, three walks per nine is hefty. Gibson has utilized his changeup the most in his career in 2015 (19.5%), likely in large part to Allen's instruction. The increased pitch usage could be helping the strikeouts, while making the zone a bit more difficult to maintain. Right now, Gibson's walk rate isn't a problem, but toeing right in the middle of the line, you'd rather not see it become one either.
     
    So, here we are, some ups and some downs, but that's probably what you're going to get with Gibson. I'm not sure he ever looked the part of a one or two pitcher, but at this point it's fair to pencil him in as a solid number three. If the Twins make the playoffs, he can be trusted on the mound to keep you in the game, and really, that's about all you should be asking for. He's taken steps forward this season, and in an improved rotation, he's a big part of it.
     
    Kyle Gibson probably isn't ever going to be the guy, but he's proven he's far more than just a guy too.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    For years, since he was 16 in fact, Miguel Sano has been billed as the next great star for the Minnesota Twins. Having been signed for a then record amount out of the Dominican Republic, the mammoth human being was eventually going to lay waste to major league pitching. Fast forward to 2015 and that time has come. Whether he has played the field enough or not, Sano is ready for his first piece of hardware.
     
    Sano debuted for the Twins on July 2nd. So far, he has played in 50 games, and compiled 176 at bats. Those at bats have resulted in 13 doubles, 14 home runs, 41 runs batted in, and a slash line of .295/.403/.608. For a guy who seems destined to hit somewhere around .270 for his career, he's off to a ridiculous start.
     
    What makes Sano's production maybe even more impressive, is just how strong he looks doing it. Sano's average exit velocity on balls put in play stands at a blistering 94.25 mph (second only to Giancarlo Stanton). He hit a ball 113 miles per hour once this year, and his *double* off the catwalk at The Trop left the bat at a ridiculous 110 miles per hour.
     
    Looking through Sano's peripherals, it is the strikeouts that jump off the board as a problem. With 76 whiffs in 176 at bats, Sano is striking out at a 43% clip. While not at all ideal, he continues to produce because of how hard the ball is it when put in play. Although a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) wasn't sustainable for Danny Santana a season ago, Sano's .432 mark should continue to remain high throughout his career.
     
    On the season, Sano has batted as the designated hitter for 41 of his 50 games, playing the field just nine times. Logging 77 innings at third with five more coming at first, Sano's 82 innings have failed to establish him as an all around player in his first year. However, with the bat coming through, the Twins star has produced a 2.1 fWAR mark to this point.
     
    So with such a strong season under his belt, Sano has to be the unquestioned AL Rookie of the Year right? Wrong (at least not in the minds of most). Carlos Correa, who has played SS in all 70 games since his call up this year, is seen as the more complete vote getter.
     
    On offense, Correa owns a .279/.347/.518 slash line, with 17 doubles and 16 home runs. He has driven in 45 runs, and is a big part of the reason the Houston Astros find themselves atop of the AL West. As mentioned briefly however, it has taken Correa 20 more games than Sano to reach those marks. Quantified as a whole, Correa has compiled a 2.8 fWAR on the season.
     
    With the main detractor for Sano being that he doesn't play the field, the defensive production of Correa should be examined. In just over 623 innings, Correa has been worth 0 DRS (defensive runs saved), while earning a -2.0 UZR (ultimate zone rating), and -5.5 UZR/150 (UZR per 150 defensive games). In other words, nothing that jumps off the page in the field.
     
    Should you extrapolate Sano's production offensively to mirror the 70 games Correa has played, here is what you would come up with: 18 doubles, 19 home runs, 57 runs batted in, and 2.9 fWAR. Considering Sano has continued to push the envelope in terms of projections, those numbers may actually be share of what real performance would look like.
     
    With 31 games left to go for the Twins, Sano still has plenty of time to make his final statement. The fact that his biggest competition plays the field though, should not be the detractor when it comes to deciding a winner. Despite significantly less opportunity at his disposal, Sano has caught up to Correa, and has him within striking distance.
     
    At the end of the day, it's a fair argument that Miguel Sano deserves his first hardware in the form of the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year. What may be more important though is that the production continues to pave the way for Sano to be at the forefront of helping Minnesota to bring their own hardware to Twins Territory in the years to come.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2015 Major League Baseball season wasn't supposed to go the way it has for the Minnesota Twins for many different reasons. Most notable, is the fact that Paul Molitor's club is in playoff position a year before they were expected to be. Surprisingly, there are a few expected contributors that are missing from the fold however. Maybe most glaringly of the bunch are two relievers, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed.
     
    Minnesota selected both Burdi and Reed with 2014 draft picks. Burdi was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of Louisville, while Reed went to the Twins in the 5th out of Oregon. Both players put together solid debut seasons, and Reed then went on to impress during the Arizona Fall League. With a good amount of momentum rolling behind them, both players looked like a 2015 MLB splash could be in the cards.
    Until it wasn't.
     
    Burdi's first outing of the season for Double-A Chattanooga was of the four run blowup variety, grabbing just two outs. By June 25, he owned a 5.93 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .775 OPS off of him. For Reed, things weren't much prettier. Three outings in, he allowed his first run. It snowballed to a 5.56 ERA and a .281/.366/.388 slash line by Aug 6th. Both players were then met with even more adversity.
     
    The Lookouts ultimately gave Burdi the hook first, with him being demoted at the end of June. Reed would stay with the Double-A club until early August, before assuming the same fate. Now being sent down to High-A Fort Myers, a level both seemed above, confidence needed to be regained.
     
    Pitching in his first game of 2015 for Fort Myers on July 2nd, Burdi registered four strikeouts in two innings pitched. After 13 games a level below, he had compiled a 2.25 ERA, a 13.05 K/9, and baffled opposing hitters to the tune of a .179/.208/.239 ERA. Since, he has been promoted back to Double-A Chattanooga, and owns a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings.
     
    Still down at Fort Myers, Reed has found himself as well. Having skipped over the level a season ago, Reed was getting his first taste of the Florida State League. Now with 11.1 innings under his belt, the former Duck looks every bit as dominating as he was once billed. A 0.00 ERA with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, Reed is overpowering hitters allowing just a .211/.225/.211 slash line.
     
    Now with the season set to wrap up, the next hurdle has appeared for the two flamethrowers. Both have been assigned to take part in the Arizona Fall League as representatives for the Twins. Playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, Reed will be repeating the league after an impressive 2014 showing (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). Burdi will be making his first appearance.
     
    As Reed did last year, both pitchers can use the next challenge as a new opportunity. Despite being something they both likely believed they were past, a strong Fall League showing, could have heightened 2016 implications. With a Twins bullpen that will no doubt undergo a significant amount of turnover, candidates will need to emerge.
     
    Both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi continue to profile as key cogs in the Twins bullpen for years to come. Possessing high velocity arms, and strikeout stuff that has not been synonymous with the Twins for quite some time (or ever), the excitement level is there. Although 2015 didn't turn out to be what was once expected, a refresh button has appeared.
     
    Having had the opportunity to interview both Reed and Burdi in the past, betting against them a second time around doesn't seem like a good practice. These are two names you may want to get familiar with. With the Arizona Fall League as their proving ground, the next step could be within reach.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    It's 2015 and the Minnesota Twins are playing baseball in September. While that happens every season, what doesn't happen often (or at least for the past four seasons), is meaningful September baseball. Paul Molitor's club finds themselves in the thick of a heated Wild Card race with just over a month to play. The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to toe the middle this season, and it could prove costly.
     
    For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game Wild Card playoff.
     
    In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having went through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish.
     
    Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition, that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense.
     
    That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters.
     
    During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously.
     
    Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current Wild Card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future.
     
    Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back.
     
    With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug, Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug), and injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Not needing to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future deterring move, Minnesota stood pat.
     
    Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324 against him. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect.
     
    In holding him back, the club doesn't need to answer to service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more.
     
    Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could end up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control.
     
    By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them to September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt benefit the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring.
     
    Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. In promoting during September 2015, and then May 2016, Berrios's service time implications would be as if he was not promoted this season at all.
     
    Because of handling things how they did, the Twins find themselves right in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being perceived. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?"
     
    The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top.
     
    For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    With August officially coming to a close, and the Twins just a game back in the Wild Card standings, Paul Molitor's club is in uncharted territory. For the past four seasons, losing has been all the Twins have known. Now with a chance to play meaningful September baseball, promotions take on a whole different meaning.
     
    As the Rochester Red Wings finished off a 4-2 win to end the month of August, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan watched the action unfold as he decided who he would bring back north with him. Upon exiting the Triple-A clubhouse for what can be assumed the last time in 2015, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, A.J. Achter, and Michael Tonkin were headed back to the big leagues.
     
    Vargas had been all over the system in 2015 having played with the Twins, and as low as Double-A. Santana was being forced to prove that 2014 was more than a flash in the pan. Tonkin had been up and down more times than he'd like to admit, and Achter was still looking for his time to be long enough to make an impression. They now would all get to write the next chapter of their story.
     
    The biggest news out of Rochester though, was who wasn't called up.
     
    Having been informed that the Twins decision maker, Ryan, was there to watch him. Being told that a few solid performances could be the final push to get to the big leagues. With the knowledge in the back of his mind, Jose Berrios pitched.
     
    His 3.08 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga didn't matter now, and nor did his 9.1 K/9 a step down. Not even his already impressive track record at Triple-A Rochester. What mattered were the few starts being watched by the man who held his fate in his hands. With Ryan on hand, Berrios pitched to the tune of 13 one run innings. He gave up just seven hits and struck out 17 while walking just one batter. His 0.69 ERA was near flawless, and opposing hitters mustered just a .146/.163/.229 line against him. At the end of it all though, it was deemed not enough.
     
    Despite Kyle Gibson owning an ERA of 6.00 in August, forgetting that Tommy Milone had been hit around to a 5.40 mark over his last three starts, and negating the fact that one brilliant outing overshadowed a 9.12 ERA for Ervin Santana in the past month, Ryan decided there was no room for Berrios. With nearly 160 innings pitched under his belt, this was Berrios opportunity to make a contribution at the next level.
     
    There's two trains of thought that could provide answers for the most obvious reasons to overlook such a needed commodity in Minnesota. The first, is Berrios' workload itself. Having pitched a career high 139.2 innings a season ago, a 20% increase was fast approaching. Whether of the belief that should be a hard stop to avoid arm damage for a young player or not, the Twins would no doubt want to exercise caution with the 21 year old.
     
    Despite Berrios being in the best shape of his life (as quickly noticed by his offseason program), the long term health should continue to remain at the forefront. His big league contribution (from a health standpoint) would have made a lot of sense sometime in August, and no doubt would have afforded the Twins more work earlier on in the shutdown process.
     
    On the flip side, there is baseball as a business. A team like the Twins generally is going to do what they can to keep control over young assets. Without the lucrative TV deal allowing spending to be amongst the league's best, smart contracts loom large. Berrios has a service clock that has yet to start, and a September call up would reverse that fact.
     
    The problem with both of the reasons not to bring up what no doubt could be a key cog for the stretch run, is that both issues are somewhat simply addressed. On the health side of things, Terry Ryan was in person to watch Berrios is his most recent outings. Showing no signs of slowing down, the sentiment that Ryan suggested in regards to his limit being based on feel, seems little more than lip service. A 20% increase in innings is far from a gold standard, and once again, Berrios has done nothing but show he wants more.
     
    In regards to service time, contracts, and controllability, the Twins decide to gamble on the future. While Berrios' service time would start with a September call up, a year of arbitration is not immediately lost. Had the Twins called him up now, and then held him at Triple-A until May 2016 (rather than starting with the Twins out of Spring Training), they would have saved the same year of service time. No doubt the practice would frustrate an agent, but the same can be said about the current handling.
     
    At the end of the day, the Twins are in a position that no one expected them to be. Above .500 and competing for a playoff spot in the season's final month, an opportunity presented itself. Rather than capitalize on where they are currently, Terry Ryan decided to gamble and hope that in 2022 (when Berrios' final year of team control comes into play), matters just as much.
     
    Minnesota could have positioned themselves for a playoff run now, in 2016, and going forward. Instead, they chose to play the "we're just happy to be here" card, and act as though 2015 is nothing more than a participation trophy.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim.
     
    Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves.
     
    Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way.
     
    Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must.
    However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight.
     
    Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    August comes to a close, the Twins have rebounded from a lackluster middle of the summer, and an AL Wild Card spot is once again in the cards. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have paced the offense, and Paul Molitor's club is rolling. Heading into September, there's one more weapon the Twins have at their disposal however: La Maquina.
     
    Spanish for "The Machine," La Maquina describes and defines Jose Berrios in a way no other phrase can. The Puerto Rican superstar has put together another amazing season in the Twins farm system, and Terry Ryan is running out of reasons not to deploy him. With Berrios laying waste to opposing hitters, he very well could be the final missing piece to helping the Twins capitalize on their good fortune this season.
     
    A year ago, Berrios blitzed the Twins system. Generally regarded for slow-playing even the best prospects. Berrios pitched at three different levels in 2014. Making 16 starts for Fort Myers, followed by eight for New Britain, and finally a spot start for Triple-A Rochester, it appeared Berrios had arrived. Unfortunately, not everyone saw it that way.
     
    Keith Law had Berrios in the 90's when it came to his top prospect list. The Twins invited him as a non-roster guy to Spring Training, but he was shipped out rather quickly. All of it has fueled Berrios' fire. In 2015, he's done everything possible to substantiate his impressive 2014. With a 3.08 ERA in 15 Double-A starts, he's actually been even better at Triple-A Rochester.
     
    For the Red Wings, Berrios owns a 2.78 ERA across 10 starts and 64.2 innings. He's compiled a career high 155.1 IP and owns a 10.2 K/9 at the highest level of the farm. Since giving up four and five earned runs respectively in his first two Triple-A starts, Berrios has put together a run of 54.0 IP allowing just 38 hits, 12 runs (11 earned), walking nine, striking out 61, all to the tune of a 1.83 ERA. Opposing batters are slashing just .197/.252/.316 off of him, and it all adds up to Berrios being nothing short of dominant.
     
    Since being under the microscope in August, Berrios has taken his game to yet another level. With a September call-up being a possibility, the Twins best pitching prospect has reeled off performances of 12, 10, eight, and nine strikeouts in his last four outings respectively. To put icing on the cake, it was the 12 strikeout, three hit performance on August 26th that general manager Terry Ryan was in the stands for.
     
    Keeping Berrios at the Triple-A level is no doubt the business side of baseball. Not yet on the 40 man roster, the Twins would need to do some finagling to get him up to the big leagues. More than that however, his service time would begin, and Minnesota would lose out on an extra year of team control. Down the line, that no doubt could cost a team generally looking to maximize their spending.
     
    On the flip side, the Twins absolutely had no business being in the spot they currently find themselves in. Beginning to compete a year ahead of schedule, and doing so with top prospects in tow, Molitor's boys have presented an intriguing situation. With a month left of games to go, it's Berrios that undoubtedly could provide the final boost to put the Twins over the top.
     
    If the top prospect ends up being the pitcher the Twins expect him to be, he's going to need to get paid down the line. Minnesota will need to cough up the cash earlier than expected if his promotion happens, but maximizing winning potential when it's there may make sense. A worst case scenario may look like a Berrios promotion only to miss the playoffs, but that experience could prove vital in a more important 2016 season anyways.
     
    How the Twins value future cash flow and contract status will likely be the determining factor, but considering how this club has performed against the odds thus far, Berrios would be a welcomed final piece. Terry Ryan dipped his toes in the water when he traded for Kevin Jepsen and Neal Cotts, but now it's time to dive in. Unleash La Maquina.
     
    More: From Puerto Rico To The Pros: The Jose Berrios Story
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot.
     
    For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block.
     
    Pitchers:
     
    A.J. Achter-RHP
     
    Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen.
     
    Logan Darnell-LHP
     
    The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though.
     
    Brian Duensing-LHP
     
    Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper.
     
    Casey Fien-RHP
     
    This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it.
     
    Ryan O'Rourke-LHP
     
    Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen.
     
    Aaron Thompson-LHP
     
    Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not.
     
    Jason Wheeler-LHP
     
    A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use.
     
    Position Players:
     
    Chris Herrmann-C
     
    Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that.
     
    Eduardo Nunez-Util
     
    Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense.
     
    Shane Robinson-OF
     
    If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia-OF
     
    Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore.
     
    With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    It wasn't supposed to go like this, Minnesota was not at all defined as a surprise team in 2015. In a stacked AL Central, it was the Twins who were supposed to be sellers, and once again teeter on the brink of losing 90 games. Fortunately, none of that has played out as expected, but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and tough decisions.
     
    Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL Wild Card positioning. Once in firm control of a playoff spot, a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock the Twins out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a rollercoaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament.
     
    In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline timeframe, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen.
     
    The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That begs the question, what do the Twins see themselves as?
     
    Typically, a rental type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking to be somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling.
     
    With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make somewhat of a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however.
     
    Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season.
     
    On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40 man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40 man).
     
    At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected.
     
    Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight.
     
    Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating just how the club handles the crossroads it currently finds itself at.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    August 20, 2015 is a day that will hopefully go down in history for the Minnesota Twins. While baseball's (and the Twins) number on prospect has already debuted at the big league level, it's on this day that Minnesota is hoping he never goes back to the farm. Entering a major league lineup with Miguel Sano for the first time, the Twins have their future franchise cornerstones in place. Although 2015 is just a starting point for Buxton, there's a few things I'd like to see from him over the final month and a half.
     
    In his first stint with the big league club, Buxton slashed just .189/.231/.270 across 11 games before hitting the disabled list with a thumb injury. For a guy that has torn through the minor leagues, the output was less than stellar. Knowing full well that his bat would take some time, the slow start isn't anything to be disappointed with. That said, there's a few other things that should be keyed in on for the 21 year-old.
     
    1. Controlled But Unlimited Effort
     
    Often times in the world of sports (more often football), you'll hear about a player's motor. Byron Buxton has one of the highest running motors in all of baseball. Not only does he absolutely fly, but he's going at 110%, 100% of the time. While that trait is something that the Twins no doubt have to enjoy, it's when it becomes detrimental that there is a problem.
     
    Much like Bryce Harper before him, Buxton needs to play the final month of the season with an understanding of what controlled effort looks like. He has been shelved the past two seasons after colliding with a teammate, and sliding on a steal. He has routinely smashed into fences, and has obliterated his lanky frame. The punishment he has put on his body has been nothing short of drastic.
     
    Suggesting Buxton play the game of baseball differently is not something that I would be behind. However, Torii Hunter should be in Buxton's ear helping him to feel through how to give the same level of effort, without sacrificing his ability to be on the field for his team. Protecting himself while going into the wall, or getting his hands up when sliding into a bag are minor changes that Buxton can make, while still utilizing his style. In the remainder of the season, Buxton needs to continue to play with the same type of effort, with a bit more regard for his body.
     
    2. Improved Approach At The Plate
     
    For the Twins, Buxton was immediately going to be an elite, if not Gold Glove caliber, centerfielder. He is that fast, and that good with his glove. What he wasn't going to do was hit. Despite being a career .301 hitter in the minors, Buxton needed to get a feel for big league pitching. He fell somewhat flat in starting out hitting below the Mendoza Line in his first taste at the MLB level.
     
    For a guy who owns a 245/135 K/BB ratio across 276 minor league games, Buxton's 15/2 K/BB ratio with the Twins wasn't a good start. The best thing that happened to him however was a stint in Triple-A. Now facing pitchers capable of spinning curveballs and other breaking pitches, Buxton was forced to alter his approach, and become a more patient hitter.
     
    In 13 games, he did just that. Striking out 12 times while drawing four walks, Buxton had hits in each of his 13 games for Triple-A Rochester. How owned a .400/.441/.545 slash line, and collected three doubles, a triple, and a home run. It's safe to say that he's headed back to the show with a significant amount of confidence in his corner.
    You'd be crazy to think that Buxton is going to bat anywhere near .400 at the major league level, and he may not even reach a .300 mark. What the Twins have to be hoping for though, is that Buxton can hit around .280 the rest of the way, while striking out less, and utilizing his speed to pick up extra base hits.
     
    3. Make The Speed Play
     
    As things stand, the Twins have stolen just 55 bases as a team (in 2013, Buxton stole that many on his own). The club leader is Brian Dozier, with 10 (he's the only Twins player with double digits). Byron Buxton needs to be the catalyst in reversing that poor output.
     
    Buxton is a definite stolen base threat, but swiping bases at the big league level is much more than just speed. With 22 steals to his credit this season, Buxton has plenty of speed on his side. What he needs to accomplish throughout the last month and a half of the season, is to perfect his jump and learn big league pitchers.
     
    Paul Molitor has allowed his Twins team to be more aggressive on the bases this season. For Buxton, he needs to be the leader when it comes to taking the extra base, as well as stealing them. After his recent thumb injury, head first slides shouldn't be avoided, but rather perfected. If Buxton can hone in his jump on pitchers, as well as his sliding ability, he will go into 2016 with another weapon at his disposal.
     
    4. Drop A Bomb
     
    Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are vastly different players. The former has the ability to hit 30 home runs on a season-by-season basis (maybe even 40), while the latter will top out around 20. However, Buxton definitely does have a power stroke involved in his game. If he can launch his first home run at the MLB level in the final month and a half, it takes another pressure off of his plate for the upcoming season.
     
    Really, that's more what Buxton hitting his first big league home run is about. If he can remove the distraction of "firsts" this season, it allows him to go into 2016 focused on a clean slate. First home run, first steal, first triple, etc. are things that Buxton doesn't need to worry about in a season where has is going to be dubbed "the man" in the outfield.
     
    In his best year, Buxton will likely have a chance to hit around 15-20 homers as he adds more muscle to his frame. If he can enjoy some late season milestones for the Twins in 2015, he will set himself up for a 2016 in which he can worry about letting the game come to him.
     
    5. Top The Lineup Often
     
    Byron Buxton has just 11 games with the Twins under his belt, and he spent nine of those contests batting out of the nine hole. The two games in which Buxton led off, he hit .333/.333/.444 for the Twins (small sample size I know). The bigger point though is that a leadoff hitter is exactly what Buxton is.
     
    On the season, Molitor has gone most often with Brian Dozier out of the leadoff spot. More recently, the role was given to Aaron Hicks. Hicks makes sense in that spot without Buxton in the lineup, but Dozier rarely does. Dozier is a home run hitter who is being forced to settle for solo blasts each time he's lined up as the table setter. For Minnesota, especially with Hicks on the shelf, leadoff should be Buxton or bust.
     
    It's probably fair to slowly integrate baseball's top prospect back into the lineup. If Molitor wants to bat him 7th-9th for a game or two, that's fine. However, realtively early on, Buxton needs to assume the leadoff spot for the Twins. It's going to be his role in 2016, and settling into it over the final part of this season will no doubt pay dividends later. Give Buxton 90% of the leadoff at bats the rest of the way; just another way to remove jitters going into the ever-important 2016 season.
     
    Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano in the same big league lineup is going to be a lot of fun. While it may not make much of a difference in 2015, it no doubt signifies the changing of the guard for the Twins, and them paving the way into the future. If Buxton can leverage his 2015 experience into the 2016 season, the entire big leagues should be on notice.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Tyler Duffey twirled his second straight impressive start for the Minnesota Twins as they took on the Orioles in Baltimore. The 24 year-old righty mowed down eight Orioles hitters, and he was on cruise control from the word go. As he's now made it two straight impressive starts, heads are starting to turn. The question is, should they be? And why wasn't Twins Territory already on notice?
     
    Duffey was a 5th round pick out of Rice University by the Twins back in 2012. This season, he saw his first eight starts at Double-A Chattanooga, where he was the Opening Day starter. In and of itself that's noteworthy, considering it was Duffey (not Jose Berrios), that manager Doug Mientkiewicz gave the ball to kick off the season. He made that decision look wonderful as Duffey worked 6.2 innings giving up just four hits while striking out 10 Montgomery Biscuit batters. Since, he hasn't looked back.
     
    On the season, Duffey has struck out eight or more batters in a game six times in 25 starts. He has 10 and 12 strikeout performances, and his eight strikeouts against the Orioles on Thursday night were the most by a Twins pitcher since July 5 when Ervin Santana sat down eight Royals. In his 25 starts, Duffey has given up more than three earned runs just five times, and he's held team scoreless ten times.
     
    In 2015, the Twins have been aggressive with the consistently impressing Duffey. After pitching to the tune of a 2.56 ERA across eight Double-A starts (while owning a 9.3 K/9), Duffey found himself at Triple-A Rochester. The success came with him as he compiled a 2.72 ERA across 13 starts. After a tough first test at the big league level, it appears Duffey has arrived for the Twins too.
     
    Starting against the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles, Duffey has put together 13.2 innings of impressive pitching. He's surrendered just 11 hits, two earned runs, and five walks, all while fanning 15 batters. Across those two starts, opposing hitters are batting just .224/.296/.265 off of him. By all early indications, it would appear as though Duffey is here to stay.
     
    8.08, 6.44, 6.25, and 5.53 are the Twins current starters K/9 (May, Gibson, Milone, and Santana). Duffey finds himself the owner of a 9.19 mark through his first three big league starts. On a team starved for strikeouts, Duffey is providing the gold standard.
     
    As he continues to see turns in a major league rotation, Duffey will only have a chance to get better. Currently throwing his hammer curve right around 30% of the time, the Twins have to be ecstatic about just how good of a pitch the former Rice Owl has at his disposal. Duffey is also getting batters to chase a healthy amount in generating swings at pitches outside of the zone just over 35% of the time. It's safe to say he's working into a groove, and making the game come to him.
     
    A driven, motivated, and level-headed individual, Tyler Duffey has the opportunity to be a key cog for winning Twins teams in the years to come. Although not billed with the hype of other top pitching prospects, Duffey's performances are begging you to take notice all on their own.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    It's been a tale of two season thus far for the Twins. After racing out to a 49-40 record prior to the All Star Break, Minnesota had positioned itself in the heart of the AL Wild Card race. Since then however, the club has gone 10-20, or completely in the tank. It's not at all fair to suggest it wasn't seen coming, and honestly, it may have even been welcomed.
     
    Going into the break, Kyle Gibson owned one of the best 15 ERA's in all of Major League Baseball. Forget that his FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark was north of 4.00, the Twins were happy with their former first rounder. Gibson though wasn't the only one, FIP suggested multiple Twins starters were in for some unpleasant surprises. That same fate seemed to be coming to a few bullpen pitchers as well, despite the output in relief already being lackluster.
     
    Timely hitting had been the name of the game for the offense. Joe Mauer was hanging his hat on a ridiculous batting average in high leverage situations. Torii Hunter had staved off the fact that he's 40 years old, and Brian Dozier was pushing past the best second basemen discussion and into the big league's best player. Then, as it has a way of doing, baseball normalized.
     
    The Twins own a -29 run differential (the only second place team in any division to be negative), and an ugly 21-36 record. Since the break, it hasn't been regression for one or two players, but rather an implosion across the board.
     
    Hunter has slashed just .162/.207/.308 since July 1, and he's been as much of a defensive liability as Oswaldo Arcia. Glen Perkins went from saving 28 straight games, to owning an 8.10 ERA in 11 games after the break. Mauer looked to be turning a corner with a respectable May, but has slashed just .243/.314/.346 since the break. Finally, the stud Dozier, he's become a home run or bust type in every sense of the term. Following his All Star Game blast off of Mark Melancon, Dozier has slashed .212/.276/.416 with six home runs. He's struck out 37 times while walking just 10 times in that span.
     
    At the trade deadline, the Twins began to see the writing on the wall. Rather than chasing after a team like the Blue Jay who had added David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, Terry Ryan held his cards and decided to play a truer window. Rather than deal assets for 2015 fixes, he made a move for a controllable reliever in Kevin Jepsen. Unfortunately, the bullpen has gone only further downhill.
     
    Next through the revolving door for the Twins was lefty specialist Ryan O'Rourke. After debuting relatively strong, his last 7 outings have been to the tune of an 18.90 ERA. A.J. Achter owns a 9.00 ERA, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham is being hidden in a stretch in which he owns an 11.57 ERA over his last six games. In fact, the last time Graham didn't give up a run in relief was on July 26. Add Perkins struggles in, and Neil Allen's relievers are nothing short of a debacle.
     
    Of course, with regression looming and so many indicators suggesting it, the obvious answer is that the Twins would be proactive in dealing with the situation. No, they didn't need to make any trades, but almost assuredly the organization would experiment from within. No, Terry Ryan and the Twins have instead welcomed the dumpster fire.
     
    In the outfield, Torii Hunter has ceded way to Shane Robinson. Robinson, a capable fourth outfielder (and nothing more) has started three of the Twins last six games. The career .239 hitter is currently deemed more deserving of innings than the number one prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton (who happens to be slashing .412/.444/.549 at Triple-A Rochester.)
     
    There's no point in showing distaste about Joe Mauer getting playing time. He's remained healthy and in the lineup this season, if not ultimately unproductive. What he been afforded though is a top of the lineup spot. Instead of batting 6th or lower, manager Paul Molitor continues to run Mauer out in the three hole on a nightly basis (despite his .260 average).
     
    For the Twins, the offense has been less of a problem in terms of regression than the pitching has been. With Phil Hughes now on the DL, Ervin Santana looking like he might as well go there, and Glen Perkins quite possibly needing a trip, there should be plenty of options chomping at the bit.
     
    Instead, Jose Berrios is continually looked over at Triple-A, Taylor Rogers isn't considered for the bullpen, and hurlers like Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and J.T. Chargois aren't given the clearance to give it a try.
    Understandably, the Twins could make cases to hold each of those young players back if the circumstances were different. The reality is that while regression has set in heavily, Minnesota has chose to welcome it, rather than to address it and further the future avoidance of the problem.
     
    While Burdi and Jones have gone through tough stretches, Rogers hasn't been as sharp, and Berrios may have an innings limit, they will all be counted on at some point in 2016 (a few relatively early). The problem is that the Twins are opting to throw those prospects into the fire, rather than to integrate them in what amounts to a developmental period. Much like the handling of Aaron Hicks, the Twins forego an opportunity to use September, and instead bank on a strong spring training translating to immediate big league success.
     
    At it's core, 2015 should still be considered a resounding success for Minnesota no matter how it ends (the Twins would need to lose 33 of their final 40 to reach 90 losses, that isn't happening). What is problematic is the way internal operations are carried out. As 2016 rolls around and the Twins are in a position to win, will they know how to carry that out? Welcoming regression, continuing to bungle DL stints, and lacking the push to cure issues from within, some key matters remain a mystery.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    As August rushes towards completion, and the Minnesota Twins look to roster expansion in September, there's plenty of reasons to be glued into the Major League Baseball season. Despite looking like the playoffs are a longshot, the Twins have plenty of storylines left to monitor. With 2016 looking like the opening of an upcoming window of success, it's the end of this season that should pave the way.
     
    I'd hope to see Minnesota utilize roster expansion to get the feet of a few young players wet. There's no doubt contributions will be expected to come from fresh faces next year, and both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor could remove the jitters ahead of time. Looking at how this season has played out, and what should be coming, it's time to take a way too early look at what the 2016 Opening Day roster could look like.
     
    To set some ground rules, I'm going to be operating with the understanding that no free agents (from outside the organization) will be included. With that in mind, here we go.
     
    Catchers (2) Kurt Suzuki, Chris Herrmann
     
    Kurt Suzuki will be back for the Twins in 2016, and there's a good chance he'll be the backup. He's been horrible behind the dish in 2015 and has slashed just .229/.288/.304 in 95 games. His receiving skills aren't good, and he's become a veteran relief option at best. I expect Chris Herrmann to be the most likely relief option. Josmil Pinto has not been behind the plate for months, and won't get the chance again until spring 2016. He's going to need to earn his way from Triple-A to start the year once again.
     
    I'd expect the Twins to address the backstop role in free agency. Matt Wieters could be a good fit depending on his price. With arm issues, he won't play everyday either, and Suzuki could provide a decent platoon partner. No matter what happens, catcher is a giant wildcard for Minnesota going forward.
     
    Infielders (6) Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
     
    Mauer is going to start at first base, whether that's warranted or not. Dozier has placed himself at the center of the discussion for the title of best second basemen in the big leagues. Trevor Plouffe should be someone the Twins look to offer an extension, but at the very least, he's going to get paid in arbitration. Sano will continue to mash and play sparingly in the field, and Eduardo Escobar can spell players all over the infield.
     
    For purposes of the exercise, Jorge Polanco will be the Twins opening day shortstop. Part of me likes that idea as he's hit .292/.341/.392 across 99 minor league games this season. His bat looks major league ready. The part that's concerning is his 27 errors across 91 games at short. His glove is ok, but his arm is concerning. He's best suited to play second base, and that isn't happening in Minnesota.
     
    I'd be more than ok with the Twins kicking the tires on a guy like Ian Desmond. His ugly 2015 season should drive down his negotiating power, and he has posted back to back to back 4.0 fWAR seasons prior to this year. Ideally, he'd provide the Twins with a good option until former first round pick Nick Gordon is ready.
     
    Outfielders (5) Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Torii Hunter, Oswaldo Arcia
     
    From left to right, the Twins might have the best defensive outfield in the big leagues. Between Rosario, Buxton, and Hicks, opposing teams will have an incredibly tough time finding any open grass. Rosario and Hicks have helped to pace the Twins offensively this season, and while Buxton struggled in his debut, things have turned since (he's batted .404/.440/.532 in 11 Triple-A games).
     
    Without being too harsh, I'd like to see Torii Hunter retire. He's still get some pop in his bat, but he's hit sub .130 since July 1st, and he looks every bit the part of a 40 year old. Leadership is a great quality, and I'm indifferent to whatever check the Twins want to cut him, but I want his spot going to someone else. If he wants to come back however, the Twins will allow it, and he could be the reason Max Kepler starts the season at Triple-A (even though that's not a bad thing anyways).
     
    Less of his doing than a product of a situation, Arcia likely gets one last shot with the Twins in 2016. He's out of options and needs to prove his worth. The power definitely can play, but showing no semblance of a plan at the plate has not gotten him in a good place this season (he's batting .107/.200/.167 since July 17).
     
    Out of all the roles on the Twins roster, outfield is the one that Minnesota least needs to look for outside help.
     
    Rotation (5) Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios
     
    This is an incredibly hard area to decipher for the Twins with so many moving parts, but I feel good about this suggestion. Hughes and Santana are locks, with Gibson being likely included in that grouping as well. I went with Milone for the 4th spot because I think the Twins should keep him through arbitration, and I'm not sold on Ricky Nolasco being healthy.
     
    Should Nolasco return just fine from his ankle injury, he's going to be in the rotation. He has proven to be hurt more often than not, and is also a trade candidate if Minnesota wants to talk to the Padres over the winter. What happens with Nolasco could and will likely determine how the Twins approach Milone in arbitration.
     
    Berrios should debut in September, and while it will only be for a couple of starts, he should have a very real chance at breaking camp in the rotation. He owns a 3.18 ERA across 141.1 IP on the farm this year and owns what would be a rotation best, 9.1 K/9. The Twins number one pitching prospect would be a quality addition to the back end of the grouping.
     
    If the Twins do decide to target pitching in free agency or through a trade, the goal must be quality over quantity. With a stacked farm system, dealing some real assets for a top of the rotation pitcher wouldn't be a bad idea. As things stand, the Twins starting five are a grouping of 3-4 type guys that will experience ebbs and flows throughout the season.
     
    Bullpen (7) Kevin Jepsen, Glen Perkins, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Nick Burdi
     
    Like the rotation, projecting bullpen turnover is incredibly tough. One thing is for sure though, for a group that's been so bad, they will undoubtedly have new names in the fold next season. Looking at who should be considered locks, I'd only go as far as saying to look for Jepsen, Perkins, and May.
     
    Jepsen came over at the deadline from the Rays, and the Twins didn't seek a guy with team control not to exercise it. Arbitration eligible for one more year, Jepsen will likely be retained by Minnesota. Perkins remains one of the best closers in the AL, even despite his rough stretch since the All Star Break. I think Trevor May has the makings of a starter, but he's also been a very capable reliever, and Minnesota is hurting a bit more there right now.
     
    Instead of making the bullpen up of retreads like Brian Duensing, Minnesota has an opportunity to give some young, fresh, arms some leash next season. Alex Meyer's 2015 has been a disaster, but starting in the pen next season could refresh his value. Duffey moves out of the rotation and should see more of a velocity spike, and I've thought Rogers looked like a bullpen lefty for a while now. I'll go out on a limb and suggest that the Twins give 2014 2nd round pick Burdi an early crack. His 11.5 K/9 would be a huge boost to a poor 2015 unit.
     
    Again, much like the rotation, if the Twins are going to target relief help this offseason quality has to be the focus. A lot of the names above are rather unproven, but the ceilings are also relatively high. For the Twins to block what they have created from within, it should only be with something considered a virtual "sure thing."
     
    There you have it. We're in August, and right now, that's where I see the Twins starting off 2015 when it comes to their active roster. The farm system is starting to spill over now, and that should only continue for years to come.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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