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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have played through their first third of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. As they came out of the gates slow, surprises started to take place throughout the month of May. After sitting alone atop the American League and AL Central, the calendar then turned to June. Since then, the summer has been anything but pleasant for the Twins.
    In June (as of this writing), the Twins are 4-11. In those 11 losses, the Twins have scored more than two runs just three times (with one of those times being a total of three runs). Two of their four wins have come scoring just two runs. Also in that span, the Twins have lost to run totals of one, two, and three (three times) runs. At this point, it's pretty safe to say the offense is struggling and needs a boost.
     
    Enter Miguel Sano.
    Earlier this month, Byron Buxton was promoted by the Twins. While Buxton was the organization's (and baseball's) top prospect, it was Sano who was expected to reach the big leagues first. After missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, there was no doubt Sano would need to shake off some rust. Now into June, Sano appears like he could immediately provide a boost to a struggling Twins lineup.
     
    Since May 20, Sano has hit .324/.410/.592 over the course of 19 games for Double-A Chattanooga. In that time span, he's launched four home runs and driven in 17. His 16/10 strikeout to walk ratio is in a good place, and it would appear that Sano is more than clicking at the plate. His power has been talked about since the day he was signed by the Twins. On the season Sano has 12 home runs, and he's compiled 102 longballs in his 435 minor league games.
    So far in 2015, the Twins have started both Kennys Vargas and Kurt Suzuki in the 5 hole 18 times. While Vargas may profile capable of that role, he's hit .150/.150/.150 with nine strikeouts, zero walks, and no extra base hits since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester. Suzuki has regressed from his career year in 2014 as expected, but even at his best (15 HR in 2009), he isn't a power threat.
     
    What's worse than Vargas and Suzuki getting at bats in the heart of the order, the Twins have started Eduardo Nunez and Eduardo Escobar in the 5 hole a combined 12 times on the season. The two utility men have combined for four home runs over the course of 234 at bats. Looking for power in the middle of the lineup, Escobar's .624 OPS simply isn't going to get it done.
    Now, although Sano has tormented Double-A pitching, expectations for his major league contributions should no doubt be muted. As with Buxton before him, Sano will be making the leap from Double-A when his time comes. This is definitely the right move, but the success may not immediately translate. The one thing that should however, is his power.
     
    Where Buxton's hit tool is one that is still developing, Sano commands the strike zone well (he's striking out a career low $24.6%), and has an elite level of power. Currently graded 80/80 Raw Power by Fangraphs, Sano possesses the ability to destroy plenty a baseball. His Double-A career .292 ISO (isolated power, or slugging minus average) should be more than welcomed at Target Field.
    Paul Molitor hinted that they have been keeping an eye on Sano, and his promotion could come sooner rather than later. The argument probably should be that it needs to be sooner rather than later. Sure, Sano may not hit .300 or even .280 in his first go-round at the big league level, but give him three months and you can bet on him launching 15-20 home runs.
    The Twins offense needs a boost, it's time to let it Sano.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Byron Buxton has now played his first major league game, he's recorded his first major league hit, and he's all but delivered on the enormous amount of hype that has followed him since being selected in the 2012 Major League Baseball Draft. Needing seven at bats over the course of two games to record his first hit, we can now begin to wonder what the first tour of duty may look like for the Twins phenom. The expectations are high, but where does reality lie?
    As a minor league hitter, Buxton owns a career .296/.380/.486 line over the course of four seasons, 263 games, and 1,014 at bats. In that time, Buxton hit 40 doubles, 36 (!) triples, 27 home runs, drove in 150 runs, and stole 92 bases. He batted .248 in his first professional season, following that up with a .334 average through two levels of A ball. 2014 was cut short by injury and saw Buxton post just a .234 average in 31 games, and that was followed up by a .283 avg at Double-A Chattanooga this season.
     
    Nearly any way you cut it, Byron Buxton was a very good minor league player. If not elite, he was very, very good. To suggest the expectation of the second overall pick is anything but very good would seem silly, but Buxton more than did his part. Having now made the leap to the big leagues, the expectations once again need to shift.
    Buxton is in the same prospect realm as Kris Bryant or Mike Trout before them. Looking at both of those players however, Buxton shines elsewhere. As a minor league, Trout owned a career .342/.425/.516 slash line across 286 games. Bryant spent less time on the farm having come out of college, but he compiled a .327/.426/.667 slash line across 181 games.
     
    Obviously Bryant has yet to complete his first big league season, but he's off to an impressive start slashing .294/.403/.482 through his first 53 games. Trout had bigger struggles in his first season at the big league level. In 40 games in 2011, Trout batted just .220/.281/.390 for the Angels.
    Looking at what some similar Twins players have done, maybe only Joe Mauer can hold a candle to the kind of hype Byron Buxton brings with him. As a hometown kid, and the first overall pick, Mauer went on to hit .308/.369/.570 in his first 35 games with Minnesota. A .330+ minor league hitter, Mauer's early success was not all that surprising.
     
    Both Torii Hunter (20th pick 1993) and Justin Morneau (3rd round 1999) were prospects with a lesser degree of hype. Hunter hit .255/.309/.380 in his first big league season (135 games in 1999). Morneau, who has always hit more for power than average, batted .226/.287/.377 in 40 games during the 2003 season for the Twins.
    Looking at what's been done by those before him, it's understandable to suggest dulling offensive expectations for the Twins new centerfielder. Always regarded as a speed threat (as already witnessed at the MLB level), Buxton's bat was the tool noted as needing the most time to develop. Despite success on the farm, it is going to take time to get acclimated to the pro game. Sp when the dust settles, what does 2015 look like for Buxton?
     
    Across the minors, Buxton struck out at roughly a 19% clip, that number should rise a little bit in the big leagues. He is still adjusting to offspeed pitches, and doing so against MLB caliber players on a nightly basis will prove more challenging. His biggest asset is no doubt going to be his speed.
    Not a big bunter, as witnessed by the ugly attempt in his first game against the Rangers (and Buxton himself noting that was his first sacrifice bunt in years), his speed will play in stretching bases. Infield hits should be something Buxton can make a habit of, and his standup triple in his first major league hit was a sign of things to come. With 12 triples across 59 Double-A games in 2015, he's got a real shot to lead the bigs at years' end.
     
    Although I'd argue that Buxton's ceiling is significantly higher, I think 2015 looks a lot like Billy Hamilton's first major league season. The Reds speedy centerfielder put up a .250/.292/.355 slash line in his first season with Cincinnati. Somewhere around five home runs would seem realistic for Buxton, and he should steal plenty of bases. It's going to take him some time to adjust, and with that, there will be growing pains.
    No matter how 2015 shakes out however, Buxton is going to benefit greatly from the experience as the Twins will need to lean on him in 2016. As he morphs into the superstar he should become, it will be the next four months that help to springboard that journey. Patience is going to need to be practiced with Buxton, but it should be well worth the wait.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Earlier this season, the Minnesota Twins signed second basemen Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. In doing so, the Twins locked down their star second basemen into the foreseeable future, and bought out some of his arbitration years in the process. Now over a third of the way into the 2015 season, the contract that seemed to be a slam dunk, has turned out to be exactly that in the early going.
    Despite Dozier being a fan favorite, and one of the Twins best players, there was some initial criticism of the Twins decision. While the contract did buy out arbitration years, the Twins failed to eat away at any free agency time Dozier would have. In doing the deal this way, Minnesota was locked into a $5 million average annual value until 2018, but Dozier would then be able to be immediately eligible for free agency.
     
    Minnesota was seemingly banking on Dozier being a highly productive player over the course of the next four seasons, while hoping that the loyalty paid early on may offer them a hometown discount when and if that was needed in the long term. So far, both sides are putting their best foot forward.
    Obviously it's still extremely early in the life of the contract, but Dozier has broken out even bigger in 2015. After looking the part of an All-Star in 2014, the Twins second basemen owns a .265/.346/.538 slash line this season, all career highs. He leads the team in HR (13), runs scored (51), on base percentage (.346), slugging (.538), on base plus slugging (.883), hits (63), doubles (20 which also leads the American League), triples (3), and walks (27).
    It's pretty easy to suggest that Dozier is off to a good start, but to put it into even further context, where he may be going is all the more impressive. As Twins Daily's Nick Nelson notes, Dozier is on pace for 53 doubles, 34 HR, 133 runs scored. Those are marks no Major League Baseball second basemen has topped since 2011. Through just 61 games in 2015, Dozier has been worth 2.6 fWAR and is on pace for a 6.4 fWAR (previous career high is 4.8 in 2014).
     
    Heading into the season, one of the biggest worries for Dozier was his tendency to sell out and pull the ball. Tony Blengino looked at Dozier's pull tendencies for Fangraphs and suggested he may be about to quickly decline from a ceiling he had reached. So far, the Twins second basemen has stuck with the same process, and the results have followed suit.
    In 2015, Dozier has pulled a career high 62.6% of the balls he has put in play. However, Dozier has also recorded a 30.5% hard hit percentage, which is also a career high. While Dozier is hitting just 14.4% of his balls in play to the opposite field (a career low), he's supplemented it by hitting a career high 26.3% of balls in play as line drives.
     
    On top of being great across the board in 2015, Dozier has actually silenced critics in regards to one of his most common knocks. Discredited for having an often low average (which matters very little), Dozier has actually struck out a career high 19.9% this season while batting .21 points above his career mark.
    At this point, it's pretty apparent Brian Dozier has been nothing short of spectacular at the plate for the Twins. He's been the power hitter they didn't know they had, and he's gotten it done in multiple facets of his plate appearances. On the defensive side of things, Dozier isn't too shabby either.
     
    Errors haven't been an issue for Dozier since moving from shortstop to second base following the 2012 season. This season, he has just one in 61 games, putting him on pace for 2.5 on the season (would be a career low). He currently has been worth one DRS (defensive run saved) while being on pace for a career best 1.9 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average per 150 games).
    Looking at what Dozier has been compared to the rest of the major league second basemen, he ranks behind only Jason Kipnis (3.7 fWAR) and Dee Gordon (2.8 fWAR). He is out-slugging both players by at least .034 points and leads all second basemen in home runs (next closest is Dustin Pedroia with 9).
     
    Taking a top down view and assessing everything as a whole, Fangraphs puts Brian Dozier's current value in dollars at $21.2 million, or roughly $1 million more than the entirety of his four year contract. Whether you adhere to advanced analytics or not, the eye test has corroborated the numbers this season, Brian Dozier is very good. At this point, it looks like the Twins got a steal, and if this continues for even half of the contract, both parties are in a place to benefit greatly from one another.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    It's 2015, Joe Mauer is 32 years old, and maybe for the first time in his career, the red flags should be popping up all over the place. Not only is he having arguably the worst season of his career, but it also appears that there may be no end in sight. Whether it's the lingering effects from a concussion, or the wrong side of 30 catching up to him, Twins fans are left wondering what happened to the hometown kid. With that wonderment, the a stark reality presents itself, what happens next?
     
    Through the first 58 games in 2015, Mauer has remained healthy, which is a good sign considering ailments of recent seasons. However, in that time, he has batted just .260/.321/.356 (all significantly ranking as career worsts). On top of the poor batting line, any semblance of power has left him as he has put just two balls over the fence (and six in the last two seasons). If it were not for what he was doing with men in scoring position (.397/.486/.517 30 RBI) you'd be hard pressed to find a value at all.
     
    So when the un-quantifiable value that is "clutch" hitting evens out, what is next for Mauer and the Twins?
    I'd argue that depth at catcher may be one of the most problematic positions for the Twins looking through the farm system. Of course, having a sure-fire Hall of Famer move on from the position early didn't help, but there hasn't been much development in the role either. Not far behind however, is the question as to who can play first base.
     
    As it stands currently, Mauer is holding onto the position in large part, because the hope is things will get better. Whether they do or not, what stands waiting in the wings holds little promise as well. On the major league roster, Kennys Vargas is the only true first basemen. Although he possesses the power bat that profiles for the position, in limited action last season (107 innings) he owned a -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) rating and a -2.1 UZR (ultimate zone rating). Vargas lacks ideal reactions and just doesn't look like a long term fit in the field.
     
    Looking past the top tier of the organization, there may be more questions than answers. Reynaldo Rodriguez has played first base for Triple-A Rochester of late, and he profiles as little more than a career minor leaguer or replacement level player. The Lookouts probably have the most respectable organizational fit in Max Kepler, but there's no doubt questions there as well.
     
    Kepler has dealt with his fair share of injuries and has never played more than 102 games in a season (2014). On the flip side, his 2015 at Chattanooga has provided some serious weight to the promise he has carried through the system since signing as a 17 year old. Batting .299/.352/.488 with two home runs and 21 runs batted in, Kepler has put himself front an center as a consideration for the Twins immediate future.
     
    A converted outfielder, Kepler is no doubt going to take some time to settle into the role at the big league level. Looking through an organization void of many options however, he is a bright spot. The Twins could turn either Trevor Plouffe of Miguel Sano into a first basemen, despite neither of them being there currently. In either case, a learning curve would come into effect as well.
     
    Most importantly, the Twins and what they expected for Joe Mauer has panned out. Looking at what he was as a catcher, and what he has become as a first basemen, we have watched a worst-case scenario unfold. Whether concussion induced, or a multitude of other factors, how the Twins handle who is on first is becoming something needing consideration sooner rather than later.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the week, the Minnesota Twins found themselves preparing for a very important series for the first time in a while. Having played solid baseball to start out the 2015 season, the Twins positioned themselves for more meaningful series early on in the year. Facing off against a Royals team also at the top of the division, Minnesota could create some separation. Unfortunately, that's when the bats went quiet.
     
    Although a small sample size when considering just the first two games against the Royals, the Twins have fallen into the boom or bust trap far too often this season. In the month of June, Minnesota has failed to score more than three runs seven out of nine games. On top of the offensive firepower being void, the Twins have wasted solid pitching performances. Three out of the nine games have been lost with pitchers giving up three or less runs to the opposition.
     
    So, how does the 5th best run scoring team in the American League have such a lackluster offense? The answer is that the Twins have lived and died by an unquantifiable statistic, and the timely hitting is bound to run out.
    Minnesota has won a handful of games this season by piling on. Scoring runs in bunches, and driving in runners on base, the Twins have jumped out to insurmountable leads. It's when those hits don't come however, that the offensive construction is unsustainable. No doubt the biggest culprit is one of baseball's most reliable hitters, or he was, Joe Mauer.
     
    On the season, Mauer has 34 runs batted in and is well ahead of his 2014 pace as well as looking at a potential to set a new career high. With runners in scoring position, the Twins first basemen is slashing .411/.500/.536. No doubt those numbers are impressive, but the falloff when the "clutch" situation doesn't present itself is staggering. With the bases empty or a runner on first, Mauer is slashing just .184/.209/.256.
     
    As a whole, the issue has translated into a .260/.322/.358 slash line. While I argued just about a month ago that Mauer was reinventing meaningful statistics, it's a trend that he couldn't possibly keep up. It's hard to fault a line drive hitter for lacking power, but Mauer has turned into something completely different.
     
    Batting out of the three hole, Mauer has not only failed to hit for power in recent weeks, but has offered nothing in the sense of hitting at all. His timely hitting continues to be something that can't be counted upon, and he's become and issue in an important part of the lineup. Immediately behind him, things don't get any better.
     
    For the first two months of the season, you could make the argument that Trevor Plouffe was one of the best third basemen in all of baseball. If Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas weren't having incredible years, Plouffe would be the talk of the American League. Unfortunately, a recent slump has all but shelved that talk.
     
    Since the calendar turned to June, Plouffe has just two hits in 32 at bats and owns a .063/.091/.125 slash line. He's struck out nine times, walked just once, and has driven in just a single run. Over the course of those eight games, Plouffe has served as the Twins cleanup hitter as well. In a run production and power position, he has combined with Mauer to leave Minnesota out to dry.
     
    Now there's no doubt you'd be hard pressed to pin the offensive woes on the bats of two players. Kurt Suzuki and Eduardo Escobar both have batting averages below .240, and the Twins bench is composed of players such as Chris Herrmann and Eduardo Nunez. Regardless of who's at fault, the question for the Twins now becomes, how do you fix it? Still in a great place record-wise, doing so sooner rather than later would no doubt be the best course of action.
     
    Talking points for the shaping the Twins going forward have centered around the promotion of prospects such as Byron Buxton as well as working to sustain the early success. Offensively, the Twins need to focus on raising the bar wherever they can. Of course Buxton should be at the center of those conversations, but recently promoted Jorge Polanco should be as well.
     
    Polanco is being called up for one game as Eddie Rosario spends a day on the paternity list. While I have a hard time seeing how the move is justifiable, I also wonder if the Twins aren't planning to do something more there. Plank may still be a defensive liability at shortstop, but there should be little doubt that his bat will play.
     
    Upgrading deficiencies remains the best course of action for Minnesota. Both Polanco and Buxton would check off those boxes. Another name that seems to make sense would be Josmil Pinto. Hermann offers nothing in terms of a bat off the bench, and is little to write home about behind the plate. Should the Twins have another power threat at their disposal, a once dismal bench could provide Paul Molitor with another option.
     
    At the end of the day, the Twins must begin to get creative. Working the 25 man roster to the best positioning for sustained success shouldn't negate any sort of long term plan, and it's vital if the Twins want to capitalize on 2015. The pitching has been there of late, and the offense has let it down. It's time to bring both facets of the game to a similar high level.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have spent the last week or so jostling for position atop the AL Central. Having somewhat cooled off after their torrid run in may, the offense has been somewhat to blame. Now having brought power hitting designated hitter Kennys Vargas back into the fold, it appears that may be a targeted approach for run support. To help further, the Twins could look at the blueprint laid out by fellow AL surprise team, the Houston Astros, and allow top prospect Byron Buxton to follow in Carlos Correa's footsteps.
    Houston made the move to call up top prospect Correa over the weekend. He was the lone player drafted ahead of Buxton, and has also experienced a ton of success at the minor league level. Starting at Double-A Corpus Christi this season, Correa slashed .385/.459/.726 with seven home runs and 32 runs batted in. He added 15 stolen bases and legged out 15 doubles as well. By all accounts, Correa dominated the Texas League.
     
    The Astros sent Correa to Triple-A Fresno for 24 games following his hot start. While his average dipped (.276) he still got on base at a high clip (.345) and slugged .449. It was after just 24 games in the Pacific Coast League that Houston believed they had seen enough. In bringing up Correa, the Astros signified a desired to maximize their current winning ways, and continue along that path well into the summer.
    Now the Twins have the opportunity to follow suit. With the Cubs having promoted Kris Bryant a few weeks ago, and Correa getting the call, Byron Buxton remains the last of the elite tier of prospects expected to reach the major leagues this season.
     
    Much like Correa, Buxton suffered a lost season in 2014. Correa played in 62 games before suffering a season ending injury. In 2014, Buxton was only able to play in 31 games after dealing with a wrist injury and then a concussion. Now 54 games into his 2015 season, there's no doubt that the countdown to his arrival is on.
    Unlike Correa, Buxton hasn't lit the Double-A Southern League on fire. After starting incredibly cold, he has evened out and is now batting .267/.327/.475. Outside of the traditional batting line however, his speed has played tremendously, evidenced by his league leading 11 triples and 19 stolen bases. Things are also continuously trending up for Buxton, who has batted .318/.376/.541 since May 16.
     
    There's no doubt the Twins could use a boost at the top of their lineup, and Buxton profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter. Despite what Brian Dozier has done for Minnesota this season, it still makes sense to get a couple of guys on ahead of his power bat. Followed in the lineup by players like Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer, Buxton hitting ahead of that group would no doubt be a positive.
    On top of the added offensive boost, the Twins could transform their outfield into a positive situation less than halfway through the season. Instead of Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter flanking center, Minnesota could go Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks from left to right. Hunter would factor in at the DH spot and could spell Hicks in certain situations. No matter the configuration, Buxton possesses Gold Glove ability in the outfield with speed that would make Target Field look small.
     
    At this point, it's hard to imagine that we aren't past the Super 2 deadline for prospects, and whether or not the Twins are taking that into consideration really shouldn't matter. I'm not ready to suggest that Buxton will be in Minnesota by the end of the month, but Correa's promotion should be seen as more of a blueprint for the Twins to follow than anything.
    While believing we would see the star centerfielder sometime in August a few weeks ago, there's no doubt the timeline has changed to sometime in July at the latest. Minnesota is on a great run, and sustaining it will be done from within. Getting your best asset to the big leagues sooner than later is a great place to start.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are in the midst of a very impressive run. Easily the most surprising team in Major League Baseball this season, the Twins have positioned themselves atop the AL Central. While it's been a fun run, all of the advanced analytics suggest that regression is coming. While that sentiment may be overblown, the best way to curb the downfall in your favor is to attack it. That's something the Twins haven't necessarily done, and it may start behind the plate.
    Whether you put stock in analytics or not, you'd be hard pressed to convince someone that the Twins aren't playing over their heads right now. Of course at some point that will begin to show, and if Minnesota wants to dull those effects, being proactive should be the taken route. Players such as Tim Stauffer, Chris Herrmann, Danny Santana, and even Eduardo Nunez could be upgraded from within. Doing so would result in a net positive for the Twins floor. One position and player not being talked about however is Kurt Suzuki, and the catching role.
     
    Prior to this season, the Twins handed out a two-year extension to the veteran backstop. Regardless of his All-Star season in 2014, that was absolutely the right move. Locking down a reliable starting catcher is something that every major league team must do, but they all come at a relative premium. Minnesota didn't face a hefty price tag for Suzuki, and he fits with this team in the immediate plans. That said, he along with Santana, was a glaring candidate for regression. It's interesting to note that while it's hit hard, it's been overlooked.
    In recent weeks, Suzuki has spent a considerable amount of time batting 5th in the Twins lineup despite lacking any semblance of power. This season, he's slashing .239/.317/.324 and has driven in just 15 runs. Not a high strikeout guy, Suzuki hasn't failed in one certain area, but rather has underwhelmed at the plate as a whole.
     
    For Twins fans though, it's quickly pointed out that Suzuki is on the roster to catch. Many are quick to assimilate him to a defensive catcher, even while that doesn't appear to be the case. Forget the fact that Suzuki is one of the worst in the majors when it comes to pitch framing, he's actually been worth -2 DRS (defensive runs saved) this season. To put that into context, Chris Herrmann, the backup catcher and career minor leaguer, is worth exactly the same fWAR (0.2) and a better -1 DRS number.
    There's little doubt that defensive catchers have value to big league teams. Typically they are paired with an offensive counterpart (ie. Drew Butera with Joe Mauer). In his time with the Twins, Drew Butera was worth 3, -1, and 2 DRS, a quantifiable asset behind the plate. While he did nothing with the bat, his presence was a welcomed addition to the lineup in a reserve capacity.
     
    More often than not, Josmil Pinto has been tied to his lack of catching ability. There's no doubt he's not an every day backstop (he threw out ZERO runners in 25 chances last season), but that's the problem. He doesn't have to be.
    Twins catchers are combining to hit .203/.265/.325 with 3 HR and have played below average defense. Down on the farm (and even in the midst of a relative cold spell), Pinto has hit .253/.330/.418 with 6 HR. The home run total would put Pinto tied for 5th best amongst MLB catchers. Currently, 12 teams have catchers with more home runs than either Suzuki or Herrmann.
     
    The culmination of each of these issues is that the Twins have a position without a relative plan. Catcher's are generally regarded as power producing hitters, something the Twins have decided to balk on. Pinto was told he needed to hit, which he has, yet he sits behind two catchers that don't. Defensively, both catchers on the Twins rosters are also a net negative, and the best thing either one has going for them is a veteran presence that is respected by Twins pitchers.
    In no way should the suggestion be that the Twins do anything with Kurt Suzuki. He over-performed last season, and the upcoming regression was seen a mile away. However, continuing to balk on Chris Herrmann as the backup makes little sense. Pinto brings immediate positives over the alternative, doesn't need to focus solely on catching, and removes lackluster options from the designated hitter role.
    As mentioned at the beginning of this article, regression may be looming for the Twins, but it's up to them in how they combat it. Making internal upgrades to stave off potential downfalls seems like a good place to start. Doing so behind the plate sooner rather than later seems to make too much sense.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    It was the offseason before the 2013 Major League Baseball season was ready to kick off. The Twins were coming off of yet another 90 loss season, and this team appeared to be going nowhere fast. With poor pitching across the board, a reinvention of the organization was in need. That's when the roster shuffle came.
    First, Denard Span was sent to the Washington Nationals for a top pitching prospect. Not a month later, Ben Revere was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for two pitchers in return. It was Nationals prospect, Alex Meyer, that was regarded as the top of the rotation arm that the Twins so desperately needed. The Phillies sent Vance Worley, a regressed rookie of the year candidate, and pitching prospect Trevor May to the Twins. With plenty of promise tied up in each arm, the Twins were willing to let the chips fall where they may.
     
    Fast forward to today, and the narrative has all but played out. Vance Worley played just one season for the Twins (pitching to a 7.21 ERA across 48.2 innings pitched in 10 games) before being sent to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alex Meyer overpowered minor league opponents for two years despite struggling with an increasing walk issue. However, a disastrous start to 2015 pushed him to the bullpen in hopes to reclaim his past form. Then, there’s Trevor May.
    In his first season on the farm with the Twins, May posted a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts at Double-A New Britain. While his 9.4 K/9 numbers were great, his 4.0 BB/9 ratio had the makings of similar scares Meyer brought with him. In 2014 at Rochester, May looked even better posting a 2.85 ERA across 18 starts with a 8.6 K/9, but the walk issue (3.6 BB/9) still remained.
     
    May had shown the Twins enough, and to be frank the big league club didn’t have many quality options, to earn a cup of coffee in September 2014. His first 10 big league games saw him post a 7.88 ERA, and that 4.3 BB/9 reared its head at the major league level. As the calendar turned to 2015 however, May appeared to leave those issues behind.
    In spring training, it was Trevor May that was in the thick of a heated battle for the 5th and final rotation spot. Despite eventually losing out to the likes of Tommy Milone, May impressed far more often than not down in Florida. With the roster shuffling that would quickly take place, May found himself back on the big league roster in short order.
     
    Early results this season were mixed for May. An ugly first start was followed by his first win in which he ceded just one run to what was expected to be a solid Indians team. Despite a short start and a clunker in Cleveland mixed in, May seemed to make progress each outing. The walk numbers were down significantly, and he was throwing better than his defense was willing to help him look.
    It was his 10th start however, and first of his career in Boston, that seemed to be the culmination of all the hard work put in. With Minnesota needing a win to avoid a three game losing streak, May put the team on his back. A seven inning, two-hit shutout, was capped off by striking out nine Red Sox batters, and not walking a single one. It seemed, all in the course of one night, Trevor May had arrived.
     
    As it stands currently, May’s 4.45 ERA is nothing to brag about, but his 2.80 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests he’s been so much better. The biggest change for the Twins rookie however, is that he has all but abandoned his affinity to give up free bases. Striking out batters at a 7.9 K/9 clip (and leading the Twins with 50 K), May has walked just nine all season (a 1.4 BB/9 ratio). In reinventing himself, May has taken himself out of the discussion as the Twins 5th starter, and pushed himself to be regarded as one of the best on the bump.
    There’s little argument to be made that Alex Meyer has not turned out to be what the Twins had hoped at this point. He’s a 25 year old former top prospect that has now been pushed to the bullpen. The days of him being a top of the rotation guy may be over. As unfortunate as that may be, it is in Trevor that the Twins can find promise. Despite not being brought in with the hype of Meyer, May was a 4th round pick on his own, and has begun to come into his own.
    It isn’t all there yet for Trevor May, but there’s little doubt that he’s on the right path towards becoming a very solid pitcher. Although it may not have been the expected scenario, May is becoming the prized pitcher they believed they were getting the summer they traded their centerfielders away. It’s just the beginning, but it sure looks like a ride you won’t want to miss.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the course of the past few weeks, I've had a handful of readers asking about the current construction of the Minnesota Twins outfield, and how it will change going forward. I would suppose Oswaldo Arcia's struggles as well as the introduction of the 2015 version of Aaron Hicks is at the root of these discussions. However, Minnesota remains in a place where the outfield could be turned into a relative strength in short order.
    Going into the 2014 season, the configuration from left to right of Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter had nightmare written all over it. Minnesota was set to punt once again defensively in left (a la Josh Willingham), and go with the basement dwelling ceiling of Schafer in center. While Hunter's bat was expected to play, he's far from an asset defensively at this point in his career. To this point in the season, the defensive struggle in the outfield has been apparent, but not as noteworthy as expected. Right now, only Hunter remains of that current group, and that has proven for the better.
     
    On the season Arcia has played in just 19 games. He is currently rehabbing from a DL stint and is looking to get back to the big leagues. His .276/.338/.379 slash line isn't horrid, but he's lacked the power and plate discipline many expected to show up this season. Arcia has been a name that plenty have wondered about trading, sending down, or have tied frustration to, but all of that appears premature.
    I thought Arcia would lead the Twins in home runs going into the season. 30 long balls appeared to be a realistic mark, and he seemed to have the ability to make Target Field look very small. So far, injury has prevented that narrative from playing out, but a strong summer could still save face. There's no doubt the Twins should stick with him in left and get the Venezuelan at bats at DH as well. Going forward, he's a guy I think Minnesota should feel ok with manning left for them. If that's the Twins one defensive punt in the outfield, it's one I'm ok with.
     
    In center, the Twins were fighting an uphill battle from the get go. Schafer was always going to be a poor option, and platooning him with a veteran 4th outfielder at best in Shane Robinson just screamed. Thankfully, Aaron Hicks took over in the middle of May. As expected, Hicks has been a much different player this time around and both he and the Twins are better for it.
    Always regarded as a plus defender, it's been Hicks bat that has made the biggest improvement. Taking quality at bats from both sides of the plate, Hicks is slashing .250/.297/.317. The OBP mark is one that should be expected to continue to rise as he has always been a guy known to draw walks. His speed has played on the basepaths, already swiping four bags. With Byron Buxton in tow for the Twins, Hicks is going to have to move to right field. If he can continue to play at this level or above for the rest of the 2015 season, the Twins should be happy to showcase his arm there.
     
    There's no doubt that Buxton is the future in centerfield for the Twins. As good as Hicks has been defensively, Buxton should and will be better. Blistering speed and ball tracking skills unparalleled, the Twins are in for a treat when their number one prospect takes over in center. It's tough to argue that Buxton has been slow out of the gates down in Double-A. He's hitting just .259 and has been scuffling of late. If he can get a hot streak going however, Minnesota could decide to bring him up in early August.
    As the 2016 season kicks off, I'd argue the ideal construction for the Twins would be to go Arcia, Buxton, and Hicks from left to right. Carrying Eddie Rosario as the fourth outfielder makes a lot of sense, and his seasoning in 2015 would be beneficial to him swapping in and out for Hicks and Arcia when needed. At this point, it would appear Torii Hunter would be coming back for another year, and that could throw somewhat of a wrench into the advancement plans. Hunter may see more at bats at the DH spot next season, and the Twins defense would no doubt be the better for it.
    A detriment at times in 2015, the 2016 Twins outfield should be looked upon with favor. Hicks still has plenty of value to this organization, and talk of moving on from a 24 year old Arcia would seem to be a mistake. The Twins should start to see the fruits of their labor sooner rather than later.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Heading into spring training, and throughout much of it, there was talk that the Twins standout rookie Danny Santana could be challenged or even removed from the shortstop role due to the emergence of Eduardo Escobar. At the time, it was crazy talk, and it still remains in that context. The Twins absolutely needed to allow their surprising rookie to validate his performance, but now that fact is that he simply hasn't. Heading into the heat of the summer, Minnesota has a very important decision to make.
    Looking at the baseball field as a whole, two positions can lay claim to a higher importance in the field than most; centerfield and shortstop. Both roles act as a field general of sorts and typically are manned by some of the best athletes on the team. Minnesota finds itself in a position where its shortstop ranks amongst the leagues worst in several defensive categories, and is offering little value elsewhere to boot.
     
    After slashing an inflated .319/.353/.472 (mostly due to an unsustainable .400+ BABIP) in 2014, Danny Santana owns a paltry .226/.244/.305 slash line in 2015. He's walked just twice on the season, while accumulating 45 strikeouts. Despite being regarded as a speed threat, he has stolen just four bases while being caught three times (after being caught just four times in 24 attempts in 2014). On the defensive side of the ball, he's made 11 errors (just two in 34 games at SS in 2014), is worth -10 DRS (defensive runs saved), and owns a -5.1 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). All totaled, Santana is currently worth -0.7 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) after posting a 3.3 value a season ago.
    You absolutely had to expect a certain level of regression to hit Santana, his 2014 was otherwordly in context. What he's doing into 2015 however isn't regression. To put it simply, he's fallen off of a cliff. At this point, the Twins are nearing a crossroads where they must make a decision, and there's really only two options to consider. The first comes from within.
     
    Jorge Polanco debuted with the Twins in 2014, making the leap from Single-A Fort Myers. Over the course of five games, he got eight plate appearances and collected a double and triple for his only two hits. This season in Double-A Chattanooga, he's continued his hot streak. The every day SS for the loaded farm team, Polanco owns a .323/.355/.435 slash line. He's hit four home runs, driven in 24 RBI, walked 10 times, and struck out in 30 at bats. His nine errors are somewhat indicative of his arm strength (or lack thereof), and being a better fielder is something he will need to continue to refine (35 errors in 119 games at SS in 2014).
    Minnesota could take a long look at a Polanco for Santana swap sometime in the near future, but it may not rectify all of the issues. There's reason to believe Polanco could be a better hitter at the big league level, but he too could cede too many runs for the pitching staff's liking. That leads us to option number two, going outside of the organization.
     
    Looking at what the Twins will do with promotions in 2015 and beyond, there's no shortage of logjams. From players like Polanco and Max Kepler, to pitchers like Stephen Gonslaves and Chih-Wei Hu, the Twins have plenty of other prospects not named Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Knowing that they may not be able to advance all of them through the system in it's current state, it may be time to deal some assets for immediate help.
    Defensively, shortstop is a position that the Twins need to be sound. You probably need to go back to 2001 Cristian Guzman for a time you could point at the Twins having a true asset at the position. In going for a splash, the Twins could target a player like Andrelton Simmons to fill their vacancy. Not the aged All-Star that Troy Tulowitzki is, and potentially not commanding the same return that the Cubs Starlin Castro may require, Minnesota may find a match.
     
    Undoubtedly, I'm not one to suggest trade scenarios, it's just not something I'm well versed in. That being said, Minnesota could be presented with pursuing that scenario on their own should they deem Polanco not the immediate answer. No matter what happens, the thing that remains most clear is that Danny Santana is not the option to roll with currently.
    As the summer draws on and this team jostles for position, it will be in how the next few weeks play out that determine how the Twins position themselves for the stretch run.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins won 20 games in the month of May, a feat they accomplished for just the first time since June 1991. In doing so, they took over the lead in the AL Central division as well as laid claim to the best record in the American League. After four seasons of 90 losses, it's pretty easy to call this revelation a smashing success, but here's where beggars turn into choosers. Could the Twins actually be even better?
    Right now, Minnesota still has Tim Stauffer, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Herrmann, and Shane Robinson on the 25 man roster. Each of those players are easily recognizable as being replacement level at best. With internal options looming, there's little doubt that their eventual removal should be a net positive.
    Stauffer was a free agent flier that the Twins hoped to be a long-arm option out of the bullpen. His $2.2 million contract has been a virtual waste as he's pitched to an 8.03 ERA (and an even worse 8.69 FIP). A DL stint appeared to be the long awaited end for Stauffer, but the Twins instead brought him back and made him the 13th arm in the bullpen
    Nunez made the Opening Day roster as somewhat of a de facto utility man. Despite Eduardo Escobar being a better option in virtually the same capacity, the Twins decided to bring Nunez along as well. Functioning in a very limited role for the Twins (playing in just 14 games), Nunez has slashed .316/.366/.526. Had Eddie Rosario been considered as a fourth outfield option in spring training, Nunez could have found himself the odd man out.
     
    Looking at Herrmann, the Twins were somewhat forced into the situation. What makes it more curious is that he still remains on the 25 man roster. After Josmil Pinto dealt with concussion like symptoms in spring training, Herrmann grabbed onto the backup role. Hitting just .171/.227/.317 and spelling starter Kurt Suzuki in just 15 games, calling Herrmann a disappointment would be a massive understatement
    Rounding out the group, Shane Robinson was brought in on a no-risk free agent deal. With Minnesota needing a fourth outfielder, the veteran profiled as the ideal candidate. Being paired with Jordan Schafer from the get go was an odd decision, but Robinson has done everything asked of him. Despite hitting just .267/.313/.293, Robinson has been a defensive asset to an outfield with limited options in that category. Should the Twins move on from him, it will be indicative of their developed depth more than anything.
     
    Noting that the Twins have some black holes on their roster, there's no doubt replacements would signify an opportunity for improvement. It would be hard to argue that pitchers such as Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Lester Oliveros, or even a Jake Reed type wouldn't be more beneficial than Stauffer. Removing a run-allowing pitcher in the pen is always an area to focus on. Minnesota actually has the opportunity to gain through loss in two situations if they were to take a serious look at Brian Duensing's viability for their club.
    Nunez and Herrmann were always going to be replaceable from the get go. The former is an interesting role to replace because he doesn't need to get into games. Nunez isn't a developmental product at this point in his career and you know what you have with him. Herrmann on the other hand is a mere placeholder. Despite a recent cold stretch, Pinto has five home runs and 22 RBI in Triple-A and he's throwing out baserunners at a 26% clip. Minnesota no doubt should be looking to upgrade their backup catcher sooner rather than later.
    Looking at the situation as a whole, the Twins have to be excited about what they have done, and who they have done it with. Knowing that the roster isn't even in an optimal condition, the arrow should be pointing upwards. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will need to get creative in the coming months, but they have plenty of pieces to form an elaborate puzzle.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Nearing the end of May, over a quarter of the 2015 Major League Baseball season is in the books. As it stands, the Minnesota Twins are in sole possession of second place in the American League Central Division, and they have one of the best records in the American League. With the Twins continuing to trend in an upwards direction, managing their depth and walking the tightrope through some difficult decisions will shape their summer.
    At the major league level right now, the Twins have players such as Chris Herrmann, Tim Stauffer, and Eduardo Nunez contributing to games. The former two have been nothing short of disaster, while the latter has provided some surprising value in short bursts. Looking at the group however, none of those names represent irreplaceable players. With an organization chocked full of young talent, roster shuffling over the next few weeks will become an interesting point of observation.
     
    Considering the depth throughout the Twins organization, it may be the lowest rungs that begin to dictate what happens at the top. However, the Twins closest pool of talent generally comes from Triple-A Rochester. Tommy Milone has pitched four games at Triple-A yielding just one run over 31.2 innings and has struck out batters at an 11.7 K/9 clip while walking just 0.6 batters per nine innings. Kennys Vargas was sent down just over a week ago, and is batting over .400 with three home runs. Josmil Pinto has looked like an upgrade as the second catcher for a while, even despite his recent cold stretch at the plate. What's even more impressive, those three players only represent a small sample size.
    Rochester could be pushing arms such as A.J. Achter, Lester Oliveros, and Alex Meyer (who recently threw his first inning of relief) all to the big leagues as well. With Stauffer offering little to the Twins, and Brian Duensing struggling often as well, Minnesota could chose to upgrade from within. Although Rochester may be the immediate talent pool for the big leagues, it's in Double-A Chattanooga, High-A Fort Myers, and Low-A Cedar Rapids that the Twins tightrope gets more interesting.
     
    The Lookouts no doubt have one of the best teams in all of minor league baseball. There's little reason to believe we don't see Miguel Sano and/or Byron Buxton in Minnesota before August. On top of those two however, Max Kepler (.345/.385/.555 2 HR 15 RBI) and Jorge Polanco (.311/.348/.431 4 HR 20 RBI) could likely both use a new challenge in short order as well. On the mound, Chattanooga will be ushering Jose Berrios (2.89 ERA 63 K) and Zack Jones (1.72 ERA 22 K) out in short order. D.J. Baxendale has put together a great start, and the Twins could still decide to move both Jake Redd and Nick Burdi on the fast track.
    Fort Myers may not have the hitters that the higher levels of the organization tout, but pitchers like Chih-Wei Hu (1.03 ERA 36 K), Aaron Slegers (2.59 ERA 31 K), Brett Lee (2.14 ERA 19 K), Kohl Stewart (2.60 ERA 18 K), and J.T. Chargois (2.40 ERA 19 K) could all be looking at the next level at some point. Cedar Rapids is watching Trey Vavra (.342/.399/.529 6 HR 27 RBI) destroy baseballs, while Stephen Gonsalves (1.50 ERA 54 K), Felix Jorge (2.13 ERA 39 K), and Cameron Booser (0.84 34 K) all confuse opposing hitters. With plenty of candidates in the mix now, the Twins have decisions to make.
     
    The 40 man roster no doubt has some fat that could be trimmed off of it. Even with adding players however, there's still only 25 roster spots at each level. With plenty of deserving candidates looking for promotions, the Twins will need to get creative. Terry Ryan recently noted that guys like Hu and Gonsalves may stick at their current levels longer than anticipated, and part of the reasoning has to be the log jams ahead of them.
    With the big league club set to play 12 games in June (4 series) against teams with sub-.500 records, it's conceivable the high level of winning could continue. If that happens, the Twins will have to navigate their current tightrope with precision. The question will become, what assets do you deal, for whom, and when? Minnesota could be in a position to package a couple of minor league prospects to land a single player that could vault them into the postseason.
    Heading into the season, it was not 2015 that was slated to mark the turnaround for Minnesota. There's no doubt this team was capable of turning heads, and a sneaky playoff run could have been argued, but being a major player at the trade deadline didn't seem reasonable. Minnesota won't mortgage the future that they have built, but there's no doubt that the opportunity to turn depth into an immediate asset could present itself. How Terry Ryan navigates it could be the defining moment in how the Twins finish 2015.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    With the first quarter of the 2015 Major League Baseball season in the books, we are provided a great opportunity to take a look at how the season is shaping up. Considering the projections that were made coming into the year, it's a good time to see how things stand, and take note of some adjustments that may shake out as the season draws on.
    Keeping the focus on the AL Central, namely the Twins, let's take a look at the division first. Going into the year I had a hard time believing that any team in the central would reach either the 90 loss or 90 win mark. As it stands currently, I still feel pretty good about no team losing 90 games, but it seems silly to believe that neither the Royals nor the Tigers would have a chance at totaling 90 wins.
     
    2015 AL Central Season Preview
     
    I didn't expect the Royals to be nearly as good as they have been, and while the Tigers have some definite holes in their pitching staff, that offense is producing at an impressive clip. In picking the White Sox to finish second in the division, I was a big believer of the moves they made this offseason. They are starting to find their stride and could be there soon enough. Minnesota finishing fourth or better in the division is off to a good start, but is going to take some consistent baseball down the stretch to stick.
     
    Now, looking at the Twins, there's some definite adjustments that have to be made. I had the home town club clocking in at 79 wins prior to the Spring Training announcement that Ervin Santana would be out until July. Losing your number two starter is always going to take a toll, no matter how you make up for it. I believe my adjustment was to put Minnesota somewhere in the realm of 74 or 75 wins following the suspension (which by my projections, would have dropped them to last in the AL Central).
     
    Nearing the end of May, the Twins have already totaled over 1/4 of the wins they would need to reach 80 on the season. As it stands right now, the club is on pace to win 93 games (a mark they likely won't touch). No matter the regression that is sure to be coming to the Twins, it's become more than time to adjust expectations. 79 wins for this club was doable with everything going right with the roster structure staying in an optimal position. That couldn't be further from what Paul Molitor has experienced, yet he still has him team on pace to exceed those expectations.
     
    Considering the summer months are where a baseball team's season is shaped, expect the Twins to develop an even strong identity in the coming weeks. Looking at things as they stand and what is to come, suggesting 80 wins as a realistic mark seems to be something I am comfortable with. Should the combination of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano get hot and be called upon sooner rather than later, they could provide and even stronger boost to the big league club. While there are plenty of players contributing over their heads (Mike Pelfrey for one), there's guys who have stepped up and those that should still be expected to do so (Brian Dozier/Trevor Plouffe the former, Oswaldo Arcia/Kennys Vargas the latter).
     
    Not only is this Twins team not going to come close to 90 losses, but it's time to stop wondering what if and when it may fall apart. Minnesota is back to playing competitive baseball on a nightly basis, and a .500 record is well within their grasp.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are set to kick off a three game series with the Southsiders over the weekend. With the White Sox welcoming the Twins into town, Minnesota is set to do battle with an AL Central opponent for the first time in just over a week. On the season, the Twins are 5-2 against Chicago, including a four game sweep. This time around however, a few key opportunities will present themselves.
     
    As things stand currently, the Twins are 23-17 holding down the third spot in the AL Central. They are looking up at the Royals (3.0 games back) and the Tigers (2.0 games back). Both Chicago (4.0 games ahead) and Cleveland (6.0 games ahead) are trailing the Twins. Herein lies what may be the biggest opportunity the Twins have in the early going.
     
    Often times over the course of the first few months of the season, the Twins record has quickly been followed by a statement questioning how long the success will last. Despite a relatively average pitching staff, and an offense getting a fair bit of luck to go their way, the Twins continue to get it done. Sustenance doesn't need to remain at the same clip all season, but taking advantage while momentum is there remains huge. This weekend in Chicago, the Twins need to do exactly that.
     
    In the month of April, the Twins played to a .500 record while facing off against nearly all AL Central division opponents. Now with the White Sox looking to right the ship (6-4 in their last 10), Minnesota has a chance to stop the run. Ahead of the division rival by just four games, another sweep, or at worst a series win, would distance Minnesota further from the doldrums of the central. Putting games in between both themselves and the White Sox or Indians early, will prove beneficial as the season draws on and continues to take shape.
     
    Despite wins remaining the ultimate goal, pitching will also take center stage over the weekend. With Phil Hughes taking the ball in game one, the Twins will be hoping he can get the roll going. After being below average in the beginning month during 2014, Hughes got hot as May rolled around. In 2015, he's struggled to get his dominance going, and doing so against Jeff Samardzija would be a great start.
     
    Aside from Hughes however, it's the middle matchup that may provide the most intrigue. Trevor May has looked better in his second year in the big leagues. Despite the improvement, his recent run has seen some regression. Owning a 6.06 ERA across his past three starts, May will be looking to get back on track. It was on April 30 that May last faced the White Sox (also going against Chris Sale that day), and he led the Twins to victory. Minnesota got to Sale for eight earned runs, but May danced around 10 hits in 5.2 IP and gave up just two earned. Sale hasn't been the same pitcher in 2015 (4.36 ERA in seven starts), but the Twins will still have their work cut out for them.
     
    Finally, the Twins can spoil one of their biggest rivals big days. Paul Konerko retired from Major League Baseball following the 2014 season, and is having his jersey retired on Saturday. If May can best Sale, and the Twins offense shows up again, Minnesota could claim the final blow against a player that so often tortured them.
     
    There's no doubt that you can't win a pennant in May, but you're kidding yourself if you don't believe you can lose one. If the Twins want to further distance themselves from the questions as to how long the hot streak can last, it will be in handling series like this one against the White Sox that will provide the answers.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    In the dead of the Pittsburgh night, late in the game (the top of the 13th inning to be exact), Joe Mauer did something that he has abandoned since August 17, 2014. With Antonio Bastardo on the mound, Mauer deposited a pitch over the right-centerfield wall at PNC Bank stadium. The Twins went on to win the game by a tally of 4-3. The home run was the shot that lifted Minnesota over the Pirates, but for Joe, it really doesn't matter.
    The home run off of Bastardo ended a 286 at bat drought for Mauer. While a first basemen, power has generally not been his game (just 37 HR since 2010), but taking a deeper look at the 2015 version, that's something you should be ok with. Statistically speaking, the corner infield spots are held down by hulking home run hitters that drive the ball to all fields. Contrary to what may be popular belief, Mauer has reinvented himself in bringing value to the role.
     
    Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of the relative reliability to pull ground balls) Mauer has used all fields incredibly well in 2015. He is currently pulling 31.5% of his batted balls, while going up the middle with 35.4%, and hitting to the opposite field 33.1% of the time. A career 28.8% pull hitter, he has more evenly used all fields in 2015.
    Although Mauer is more evenly distributing his hits, they are falling in equaling less total bases. Though this isn't ideal, it can likely be explained by his hard hit percentage. Owner of a career 33.6% hard hit percentage, Mauer is hitting just 23.6% of his batted balls hard this year. While his medium hits are at 59.1% (as opposed to a career 56.7%), his soft hits are also significantly up at 17.3% (career 9.7%).
    The most visible place these numbers have shown up is in regards to Mauer's doubles this season. With eight total through the first quarter of the season, reaching 30+ will require a few more balls driven to the gaps. However, Mauer does have two triples already this season, matching his 2014 total.
     
    Looking at the numbers as a whole, we can start to see where Joe Mauer has deficiencies, and where he should be expected to contribute. That being said, a glance at a few different key areas quickly points out that Mauer may in fact be on pace for one of his best offensive seasons in recent memory. Home runs aside, he is driving the Twins offense right now, quite literally.
    Leading the club in runs batted in with 24, Mauer is blistering past his 2014 pace (which ended with 55 RBI). Mauer's previous career high in runs batted in came during the 2009 season, in which he drove in 96 runs for the Twins. As it stands now, he's on pace to even that mark. Mauer driving in runs is a by-product of his success in high leverage situations this season, and his success is astounding.
     
    A large portion of being a talented hitter is situational hitting. While Mauer's .284/.341/.381 slash line may leave some room for improvement, it's tough to argue what he's done in high leverage situations. In 2015 with runners on base, Mauer is hitting .382/.463/.485 and with runners in scoring position he's even better, .419/.500/.512. Taking it one step further, Mauer is 4-5 with a triple and eight RBI with the bases loaded in 2015, equating to a 2.000 OPS. Driving runners around and putting the Twins on the board is no doubt the most important offensive feat, no matter how that is accomplished.
    Now that we've established why Mauer's lack of home runs doesn't really matter, it's probably a good time to suggest things could continue to get even better. Hoping that Mauer's overall slash line returns back towards his career numbers still seems to be in the cards. Last season, Mauer didn't hit .300 in any single month until September. In 2015, Mauer's April line checked in at .318/.392/.412. He's struggled at the plate in May (outside of those high leverage situations), but it's pretty apparent that a healthy Mauer can still hit. As the summer wears on, it should be expected that Mauer hits at a better than average clip.
    This Twins team is in a good place right now, and with key additions coming as the season goes on, they are in position to keep getting better. The 6th best offense in baseball is continuing to push runs across at a strong clip, and Joe Mauer is a big reason for it, even despite the home runs.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    As of May 20, the Minnesota Twins have played 39 games and have compiled a 22-17 record. After being picked by many to finish last in the AL Central, and even lose 90 games for a 5th straight year by some, Minnesota has done nothing but surpass expectations. Sitting third in the AL Central, the Twins offense has once again been one of the best in the big leagues (currently 6th in runs scored). While starting pitching has been better than in recent years, it is one man in the bullpen that may be one of the team's best weapons.
    Signed as a free agent after a decent year in San Diego, Blaine Boyer has come into the Twins pen and been nothing short of lights out. His story has been well documented, and his journey has taken him on the path less traveled. After being out of baseball for the 2012 and 2013 seasons, he resurfaced a year ago. Recommitted to the game, and with his family in tow, Boyer appeared poise to give the game what he had left.
     
    Pitching in Petco Park a season ago to the tune of a 3.57 last season, it was somewhat uncertain what he would provide the Twins in the American League, despite the pitcher friendly Target Field. Terry Ryan decided to hand out low risk deals to both Boyer and former teammate Tim Stauffer. While neither looked good from the get go, it has been Boyer that has excelled as the season has worn on.
    Casey Fien, the Twins setup man, hit the disabled list during April and the Twins needed someone to step up. First year manager put all of his chips behind Boyer, and neither has looked back. Since April 17, Boyer has pitched 17.2 scoreless innings. He's struck out just eight batters in the timeframe, but he's given up just nine hits and only three walks as well. Boyer has held opposing hitters to a .161/.200/.232 slash line and he's generated a 69% strike rate. On the season, Boyer's 2.18 ERA is amongst the Twins brightest relief marks, and he's become an incredible asset in the bullpen.
     
    Earlier in the season, I kicked around the idea that Ryan brought in both Stauffer and Boyer with the idea of dealing them to a contender somewhere during the middle of the season. if he could get both players to reflect value, the Twins may benefit from the return of a mid-level prospect from a club looking for bullpen help. Obviously at this point, Stauffer is closer to being sent off of the roster, than he is being added to another team's. Boyer however, has proven to be an solid asset and the Twins have turned themselves into a legitimate contender.
    Coming off of four straight 90 loss seasons, there's plenty of reason to be cautiously optimistic for the Twins prospectus going forward. After all, in 2014 Minnesota looked in good position in June, and even made a free agent signing in the form of Kendrys Morales. This team however seems to be cut from a different thread, and the trajectory appears to be stable and trending upward more than it isn't. As long as things continue their current trends, Boyer should expect to be pitching for a contender in 2015, but it will be the team that signed him in the offseason, not the one he is dealt to.
    No doubt there has been some misses that Terry Ryan is responsible for when it comes to pitching, considering Blaine Boyer one of them is out of the question though. Boyer has been absolutely terrific for the Twins, and the man of faith with his family by his side, doesn't appear to be letting off the throttle any time soon.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    For the first time in the 2015 Major League Baseball season, and also coincidentally the first time in Paul Molitor's managerial career, the Minnesota Twins will face off against a National League opponent. With that comes the challenges of managing around not having the designated hitter at your disposal. However silly I believe that to be (and I do think it's silly), Molitor may have the deck stacked against him.
    Now full disclosure, we aren't talking about Dan Jennings, Jeffrey Loria, and the Miami Marlins type deck here (I mean, the deck is always stacked against you when you aren't playing with a full one am I right?), but the Twins have some interesting things to work through. Notably, this "series" with Pittsburgh is only of the two game variety. However, the Pirates are just 18-20 on the season, and rank 23 in the majors in runs scored. To put it simply, these are two games the Twins need to win.
     
    The biggest hurdles for Paul Molitor to overcome though, they reside on his own team. Take a look:
    Chris Herrmann
    Doug Bernier
    Eduardo Nunez
    Shane Robinson
    Eddie Rosario/Eduardo Escobar

    That collection of players is about as plain as it gets and four of them have a batting average at or below .252. The highest averages in the group come from Robinson (.315) and an inflated (due to just 22 at bats) .409 average from Nunez. When managing through pinch hitting opportunities and pitching changes however, those are the players that Molitor must rely upon.
    Considering that Kennys Vargas was recently demoted to Triple-A Rochester (after hitting .366/.395/.561 in the month of May), the Twins have no power options on their bench. A look through the Rochester lineup highlights Josmil Pinto as well, who is batting .284/.371/.431 on the season with four home runs and 17 RBI. It all adds up to a 25 man roster construction that would seem confusing in the American League, bit appears even more puzzling for a couple of games in the National League.
     
    Of course, if the Twins get early offense and dominant pitching, all of the situational offensive questions become moot. Going into a series, I would argue that is probably not something that should be assumed however. With Ricky Nolasco going in game one, and Mike Pelfrey going in game two, it would stand to reason that the Twins should have options ready. Nolasco has looked better of late, but hasn't pitched deep into games, and Pelfrey looks to be regressing towards his FIP (fielding independent pitching) mean.
    Knowing that pitchers such as Brian Duensing and a possibly exposed J.R. Graham loom in the bullpen, having bats ready to remove the pitcher would be an asset. The Twins aren't going to make any changes at this point, and Molitor's managing acumen will be tested. I've always argued that a manager's role is less important than head coaches in other sports, but in situations such as these, it could just be the situational savvy that snags the Twins a victory.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    The year was 2011, and the Minnesota Twins had two players competing for one spot at the hot corner. One was a 19th round draft pick and coming off of a season that had him in the running for Rookie of the Year honors. The other was a first round draft pick that had just experienced his first cup of coffee. At the end of the year though, and into the future, it was the first round draft pick that would take over. Trevor Plouffe grabbed the role from Danny Valencia, and he hasn't looked back.
    Of course knowing Plouffe's track record, there's little reason to suggest there haven't been bumps in the road. The 2012 season saw Plouffe play his first games at third for the Twins. In 95 games at third, Plouffe committed 17 errors, was worth -8 defensive runs saved, and owned an ugly -10.8 UZR. While it's one thing to suggest that the only way to go from there was up, the heights Plouffe would find himself at didn't immediately seem apparent.
     
    In 2013, the Twins new third basemen made 13 errors in 120 games and owned a -7.4 UZR rating. Bringing his DRS to an even 0 was a step in the right direction however. Then the turnaround happened, and in a big way. Last season, despite making 14 errors, Plouffe owned a 6.7 UZR and was worth 6 DRS. Not only did he play the best third base of his career, but he did so across 127 games, also a career high. Even better, Plouffe hadn't only made stride in the field, but at the plate as well.
    Back in 2012, his first season at the hot corner, Plouffe used a scorching July to carry himself to a career high 24 home runs. While he has yet to match that output, 2013 and 2014 saw big advancements in other offensive areas. The California native carried a .254/.309/.392 slash line in 2013 with 14 HR and 52 RBI. He backed that up a year later in 2014 by slashing .258/.328/.423 and launching 14 HR with a career high 80 RBI. Plouffe also grew a greater patience and command at the dish by walking 53 times, nearly doubling his past career high.
     
    Following along the same trend that he has laid out the past two seasons, Plouffe has started 2015 on a similar note. Currently owning a .254/.336/.423 slash line with 5 HR and 18 RBI, it looks like the production will continue. In 34 games at the hot corner, he's made just 3 errors while compiling an early 1.6 UZR.
    Not too long ago, Trevor Plouffe was seen as a player holding down a position until someone else came along. As uber prospect Miguel Sano gained steam, it appeared that Plouffe was just keeping his eventual role warm. Since, it's not the Sano has cooled, but that Plouffe has transformed himself to be on of the best third baggers in Major League Baseball. A guy that owned -0.4 and -0.9 fWAR in his first two seasons, Plouffe was worth a 3.6 fWAR last season, and has already jumped out to a 1.1 fWAR mark in 2015.
    At some point, the Twins will have to decide how to position players like Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, and Miguel Sano to make everyone fit. While that time isn't yet hear, there's little reason to suggest that Plouffe hasn't given the Twins a great problem to have. Instead of just being a guy holding down a spot, he has become the guy on a team that looks poised to turn the corner. With a possible payday looming, Plouffe has no one but himself to thank for cashing in. The transformation has been fun to watch, and it may just be the beginning of it.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Last night former first round draft pick, Aaron Hicks, got the call from the Minnesota Twins. While it isn't his first rodeo in the big leagues, there's no doubt this time signifies what might be the most important. After playing 27 games at the Triple-A level and batting .336/.415/.561, Minnesota saw fit to improve their outfield by bringing Hicks back into the fold. With more weighing on Hicks this time around, there's also plenty of reason to believe things click.
    Although he was the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Hicks took a more accelerated route to the big leagues than would have been expected. Despite playing five seasons in the minors, his best season at the plate saw him hit .318/.409/.491 in Rookie ball immediately after being drafted. A strong 2013 spring training, combined with the Twins dealing both Denard Span and Ben Revere, had Hicks being promoted directly from Double-A. After 150 games of struggle at the big league level, it was apparent a new approach was needed with Hicks.
     
    Last season, the Twins demoted Hicks from the major leagues to Double-A. Playing in 43 games for Double-A New Britain in 2014, Hicks batted .297/.404/.466 and once again looked the part of an exciting prospect. Hicks was promoted to Triple-A Rochester, and for the first time in his career, played through Double and Triple-A in succession.
    Expected to come into the 2015 season with the starting centerfield job his to lose once again, the Twins opted to go a different direction. With returns in spring training not being where the club wanted, Paul Molitor brought both Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson north. A confusing decision at the time, there's no doubt that Hicks made the most of his time in Triple-A. Abusing opposing pitchers while being the offensive catalyst for the Red Wings in 2015, Hicks no doubt earned his most recent promotion back to the big leagues.
     
    Now in line for the starting centerfield role for the forseeable future, the Twins are hopeful they can begin to watch their outfield unfold. Hicks will immediately bring not only an offensive boost, but also defensive help, to a lackluster outfield. He presents opportunity for a Twins team in a good spot, to reach even new heights. The Twins hope is that Hicks will play his way into their future plans.
    There's little doubt that Byron Buxton is eventually going to take over the centerfield role for the Twins. He's the number one prospect in all of baseball, and he's looked the part at every level. Buxton and Hicks are mutually exclusive however, in that the success of each of them would be huge for the Twins. Casting aside Hicks' previous struggles (remember, he's in uncharted territory now having excelled at each level of the farm system in order), a solid start for Hicks makes him an ideal corner fit for the Twins. Hicks has a plus arm, and could profile nicely in right field down the line.
     
    Minnesota is no doubt enjoying the success that the 2015 season has brought them in the early going, but this team is built to contend for years to come. The hope would no doubt be that an outfield of Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks would be the configuration for many years to come. Adding in Eddie Rosario as a 4th option would only further the talent that the Twins could employ out of the gate next season.
    The Minnesota Twins, Aaron Hicks, and most everyone sees this as a last shot for the former first round pick, but smart money may be on the player. Hicks has shown plenty of reason to believe in him, and for the sake of an improved outfield going forward, the hope would be that it all comes full circle.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Minnesota Twins getting their first off day since April 23, the team is no doubt in a good spot. Owners of an 18-14 record, and finding themselves just 2.5 games back in the AL Central, the break provides a perfect opportunity to set things up going forward. With some key games upcoming, and the club looking to stay on the right side of the win column, there's a few key areas of focus for the team as the season goes on.
    Coming off of a 2014 season in which the Twins offense produced a top 10 number in the runs scored category, there was little reason to worry about how this team would score. Although regression was bound to set in for players such as Kurt Suzuki and Danny Santana (and it has), there has been a handful of key contributors that have picked up the slack. However, going forward, there's no doubt the Twins will need to combat continued regression with timely additions.
     
    In the outfield, it's become way past time for Minnesota to make the call for Aaron Hicks. Regardless of his previous major league track record, he's more than earned his way back. Slashing .330/.412/.553 at Triple-A Rochester, and bringing strong defense to the outfield, he's an asset the Twins currently don't have. Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer currently own a combined .603 OPS for the Twins, while Hicks has a stout .965 number. Even in past struggles, Hicks has always gotten on base, and he could provide some added firepower to the back of the Twins lineup. With the off day prior to kicking off a series with the Tigers, there's no better time than now for the move to be made.
    Much like Hicks, Josmil Pinto has all but proven himself at the Triple-A level as well. Assumed by many that he was left off of the Opening Day roster due to a late spring injury, the stay in Triple-A has been longer than expected. Now the owner of an impressive .303/.398/.438 line complete with three home runs and 14 runs batted in, Minnesota's lineup would only benefit from his inclusion. Despite his deficiencies behind the plate, Pinto would be a vast offensive upgrade over the Twins current options. Chris Herrmann owns a .179 average across 11 games, and Kurt Suzuki has started off the season batting just .233 in 26 contests. The Twins making an addition from within would no doubt be beneficial to them.
     
    Looking past offensive upgrades, there's no doubt that the Twins need to continue to refine their pitching outlook. Over the course of their last 13 games, the Twins starters own just a 4.74 K/9 combined with a 2.31 BB/9. Considering the defensive liabilities, Twins pitchers are still making their defense work incredibly too hard. Although Phil Hughes has actually started 2015 off on a better foot than he did 2014, he's gone back to being home run prone. After giving up just 16 home runs in 32 starts a season ago, he has already surrendered 9 long balls in just seven starts this season. As would be expected, the Twins have struggled to win games in which their pitchers have given up home runs.
    Knowing that the rotation will be afforded the opportunity to insert Ervin Santana in July, there's plenty of reason to hope the current construction can hold until then. Mike Pelfrey has been the clubs best starter despite owning a 4.64 FIP (fielding independent pitching) against a 2.62 ERA. Where it stands currently, Pelfrey finds himself owning the 10th best ERA in the American League. With his FIP suggesting regression is coming, the Twins need someone else to step up. Conversely, Ricky Nolasco owns a 3.69 FIP and a 9.00 ERA across his first three starts. The FIP mark checks in as the fourth lowest across his 10 year major league career. Assuming he continues to pitch as he has, better days should lie ahead for Nolasco, and he could become an asset in the current rotation.
     
    Although Minnesota has started out hot, they have just one series win against a team with a record over .500 (Kansas City). Getting ready for a three game set against the Detroit Tigers in which they miss David Price, there's no doubt a series victory would be a big boost to the club's future prospectus. Following up the Tigers series with winnable contests against the Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota finds themselves in a position to continue the narrative of beating the teams that they should.
    Looking ahead, there's little reason to suggest that this team should be viewed in the same context of those in recent memory. While losing 90 games last year, the Twins found themselves competitive early. The difference this time around is that the hammer shouldn't be expected to fall. With plenty of internal options at hand to supplement what is already an improved major league squad, this team should remain relevant and competitive going forward. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan must continue to stack the deck in their favor, and key roster decisions and moves will pave the way for that to take place.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    At the end of the 2014 Major League Baseball season, and consequently the Twins fourth consecutive with 90 losses, the organization decided to relieve skipper Ron Gardenhire of his duties. After being the head of the clubhouse in Minnesota for 13 seasons, it was decided that Terry Ryan would be going a new direction. After interviewing everyone from Chip Hale to Doug Mientkiewicz, the Twins found their heir apparent in Paul Molitor. Now with his first month under his belt, it appears a new era has been ushered in.
    While it might be nice to immediately point to the fact that Molitor helped the Twins reached a record of three games over .500 for the first time since 2010, it's far to early to start suggesting what will be made of the 2015 season. Knowing that the club has played a handful of AL Central opponents and has remained competitive is a good start, but there's far more factors at play when looking at Molitor's influence. For the Twins, there's no doubt that the continuing trend this season will be that process should drive results.
     
    In baseball, managers have a significantly lesser effect on the game than say a head coach in football, there's little denying that. However, knowing that the effect is seen only in short bursts, it is up to the manager to make the right decisions, at the right times, to put their respective ball club in the best position to succeed. With Gardy at the helm for 13 years, the Twins rarely reinvented themselves, and the style of the man in charge became widely apparent. Because of that, it is in Molitor's early actions that evidence of new thought processes have already grown prevalent.
    Through the first month of the season, Molitor has shown little regard to keeping things certain. One of the most glaring areas of example may be the batting order. Having shuffled it on nearly a bi-nightly basis, Molitor has pushed his team from a -20 run differential through their first seven games, to a +13 mark as of May 8. Deciding to move on from the strikeout prone Danny Santana as the leadoff guy, pushing Trevor Plouffe into the cleanup hole, and jump-starting Kennys Vargas after a short benching have all been positive situations.
     
    Turning attention to the pitching mound, Gardenhire and Rick Anderson became frustratingly stubborn late in their tenure with the Twins. For all the positives they had both given the organization over the years, they were seemingly set against better judgement the past few seasons. A struggling pitcher was left in too long, bullpen usage became questionable, and runs against totals went through the roof. With Molitor at the helm, the change has already been more than apparent.
    Forget the fact that Glen Perkins has been used for four-out saves (which makes so much sense!), but there's also the examples of Molitor realizing his starters end. While the bullpen is a pieced together hodgepodge in its current state, there's no doubt Molitor has navigated it wonderfully. Making sure to go get starters before they do themselves in, and working to put relievers in consistently workable situations, the Twins have actually benefited from their own decision making far more often than not.
    For Minnesota to fully feel the addition of Paul Molitor as their manager, a full season worth of information is going to need to be gathered. In the early going however, there's no doubt that Molitor has made strides with a team not currently at its peak, void of some superior options, and looking to squeeze out every advantage it can. Prior to his hiring, Molitor was described as an elite baseball mind, and it's hard to argue otherwise at this point.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Now into the second month of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have just under 30 games under their belt. Looking at the landscape of the season that is to come, they've completed roughly one-fifth of their slate, and played through the month of April against foes coming largely from the AL Central. At 15-13 as of May 6, and just 2.5 games out of first in the Central Division, things are in a good place. Now the question is, should we take this Twins team seriously?
    After starting 1-6 through on the season, and seeing plenty of misguided "the sky is falling" type comments, the Twins have turned it around big time. Winners of 11 out of 16 games at home, they currently own the best home record in the America League. After being -20 early in the season in the run differential category, Minnesota is now +12 in that department (trailing only the Royals, Yankees, and Astros). With plenty of time left until the heat of the summer, Minnesota has plenty of time to continue to shape their 2015 narrative.
     
    Taking a look at previous Opening Day Twins rosters (check them out here at Twinkie Town, Jesse does a great job with these), there's been a looming cloud for the past four seasons. With plenty of areas for concern, and few alternative options, the question was always when would the bottom fall out. Last season, the Twins hung around longer than expected, and even made a move to add Kendrys Morales into the lineup. The eventual result in recent seasons has always been a late summer slide that has turned into uninspired September baseball. With Paul Molitor in his first season, this club looks poised to turn the corner.
    Arguably one of the worst lineups the Twins have put on the field during 2015, Molitor went with Eduardo Escobar, Chris Herrmann, and Shane Robinson as his 5-7 hitters against the Athletics last night. While Herrmann went hitless, Escobar paced the lineup, and the team hung a 13 spot on Oakland. Although that's obviously an isolated example, the fact of the matter is that this team has battled in the early going, and has found ways to get it done.
     
    When the summer months roll around, and this team is looking for an added jolt, there doesn't seem to be a point where the bottom should drop out. Guys like Herrmann, Eduardo Nunez, Jordan Schafer, and Shane Robinson are all replaceable from within the organization, and their eventual removal should be a net positive. Getting a hot hitting Josmil Pinto, Aaron Hicks, or even Byron Buxton into the lineup should only give the Twins a better chance on a nightly basis.
    With the lineup producing where it is, it might be best to remember that everything begins and ends with pitching. Sure, the Twins haven't lit the world on fire, by Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey, and Kyle Gibson have all been nice surprises in the early going. If this club can continue to pitch at a respectable level, they should expect to be in games on a night basis.
     
    There's no doubt the AL Central will continue to be one of the toughest divisions throughout the remainder of the season. I find it hard to believe that the White Sox and Indians will continue to be as bad as they have been, as well as believing the Royals and Tigers won't be as good as they have started. If Minnesota can continue to stay even keel, there's no doubt they'll be in a position to make some waves come September.
    It's early, but it's time to stop comparing this team to the futility that has come before it. This roster is cut from a different cloth, and the performance has warranted a new line of optimism. There's no doubt this Twins team is capable of continuing to make believers out of people.
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Before the 2013 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins dealt talented outfielders Denard Span and Ben Revere to new organizations. In sending Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruben Amaro gave the Twins two pitchers in return. One was a former rookie phenom in TrevVance Worley, but the bigger chip was perceived to be prospect Trevor May. With Span being dealt for Alex Meyer from the Washington Nationals organization that same summer, the two prospects would forever be linked.
    The book has already been written in regards to what the Twins would eventually get out of Worley. Having been a key piece of their immediate rotation, and then going on to be a complete bust, he has since resumed his career in Pittsburgh with the Pirates. The two prospects however were always thought to be the prize. Meyer was regarded as a front of the rotation arm that could really bring it, and May was seen as a solid middle of the rotation contributor. Now a few years later, it's May who has spent time in the big leagues with Meyer still on the farm. It might be fair to ask whether or not May is laying out the blueprint for the Twins and Meyer though.
     
    May was a 4th round draft pick out of high school, and played in parts of seven minor league seasons. He made his major league debut with the Twins down the stretch in 2014 and he struggled mightily. Over the course of his minor league career however, he owned 4.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 ratios. His 3.90 minor league ERA wasn't going to set the world on fire, and a 1.341 WHIP left something to be desired. After looking strong for the majority of the 2014 season however, the Twins gave him his chance.
    In 2014, May started nine games for the Twins and owned a 7.88 ERA, far from where you'd like a pitcher to sit at. He competed in spring training before the 2015 season, and ultimately lost out on the 5th starter role. Injuries then vaulted him into the starting rotation in April, and since, he has been a completely different pitcher. A 4.15 ERA is a significant change, but the 3.05 ERA following his first start, has really gotten him in his groove. Owning a 2.65 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark, as well as 6.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 ratios, seems to look like he's almost reinvented himself.
     
    There's little reason to believe that Meyer is knocking on the door of the major leagues, he's been up and down in most of his starts for Triple-A Rochester in 2015. However, outside of a hot streak in 2014, May allowed the jury to be mostly out on him as well. Looking at how May has transformed and transitioned to the big league game, Meyer could potentially fit the same mold.
    A first round draft pick out of Kentucky, Meyer is 25 and has pitched in four professional seasons. He's compiled a 3.32 ERA with a 1.285 WHIP and owns 10.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 ratios. While indicative of a better track record than May, it's Meyer's recent output that has burned him. In 2015, Meyer has thrown to a 5.61 ERA, 1.792 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 6.3 BB/9. Hard to categorize as anything less than a debacle, it might be time that Meyer is actually getting bored with his current level.
     
    Sure, it's a brazen thing to suggest, but there's no doubt that at a point, development and advancement intersect. Meyer has struggled with his command over the course of his professional career, but has also shown periods of dominance. Having posted three seasons of ERA's under 3.52, it may be worth seeing if Meyer can make the same strides as May. While potentially unconventional, working through some struggles at the major league level may make some sense. After all, May owned what was considered far from pinpoint accuracy on the farm, and is now posting the best numbers of his career.
    There's no doubt that Alex Meyer is waiting for his opportunity, and the Twins are hoping he claims it. For an organization that has made more than questionable roster decisions due to tenure or scholarship senses previously, they may have reached a territory where a 6'9" sized gamble makes sense.
     
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  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Yesterday the Minnesota Twins found themselves in need of another body as they were set to put Oswaldo Arcia on the disabled list. While Arcia sounds hopeful that he will just miss two weeks, the Twins needed a replacement for the immediate future. Despite Arcia being an outfielder, Paul Molitor noted that the Twins considered names such as Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Josmil Pinto. When the dust settled, it was Rosario called up to make his big league debut. Now we have to ask, are the Twins in a spot to do more harm than good?
    Positionally, Arcia is a corner outfielder. He plays left field for the Twins, and occasionally is forced to deal with the overhang and difficult wall in right field. While Hicks is a centerfielder by trade, it's pretty obvious that Byron Buxton will force whomever to his corners at some point. Rosario has played all over the outfield, but typically calls left his home. Looking at that information, it would appear that Rosario is in fact the only one not making a change in positioning. In bringing Rosario up though, the Twins have a few questions to answer.
     
    Playing at Triple-A for the first time in his career, Rosario has just 23 games under his belt above the Double-A level. The 23 year or has never been an uber-prospect, but did find himself ranked 60th by Baseball Prospectus on the 2014 prospect rankings. After a 50-game drug-related suspension last year, Rosario has worked to get his career back on track. That work however is what leads us to the biggest question marks in regards to the Twins latest roster decision.
    Returning from his suspension in 2014, Rosario went on to hit just .243/.286/.387. As a career .291/.340/.480 hitter across six professional seasons, those numbers are down significantly. Adding in the fact that 2015 has seen him hit just .242/.280/.379, there has to be some reason for concern. Cold Omaha's Brandon Warne went as far as noting that those outside the organization fear Rosario's current approach won't handle big league pitching, and it's apparent he's scuffling at Triple-A. Warne said, "I have been told by non-Twins people he isn't ready. He won't handle heat due to the load in his swing."
     
    So if Rosario with Rosario being called up, it has to mean that Hicks is in a similar boat correct? Well, Hicks has actually performed extremely well for Triple-A Rochester this season. He's currently slashing .289/.375/.494 and has hit well since his demotion in 2014. His defense would immediately slot in as the best of the Twins outfield options, and he has plus speed as well. Despite being a centerfielder, either Jordan Schafer or Shane Robinson could slide over to left field to fill Arcia's shoes.
    With that much going for Hicks, what's the thinking here? At this point, I have to think the Twins see Arcia's injury as a very temporary issue. While that is somewhat of a gamble, it looks to be the operating thought process. If Minnesota does in fact believe that Arcia will just miss two weeks, that gives them time to see Rosario at the big league level and send him back down.
     
    There's no doubt that Hicks has struggled at the major league level, and despite the indicators suggesting he should be a different player this time around, I doubt the Twins want to call him up without the intention of him staying for good. The troubling part in this equation is that while Rosario may get a fun two week audition in, what could it potentially do to him as a player?
    As it stands, there's very few indicators suggesting that Rosario can handle the big leagues. Sure, he was good this past fall in the Arizona Fall League, but he's struggled at both Double and Triple-A since returning from suspension. He's not an on base guy, and his defense projects somewhere around Schafer's (so mediocre at best). If Rosario comes up for a two week stint, and the Twins plan on playing him (as they should if he's here), being overmatched could be a significant detriment to his confidence going forward.
     
    It would appear he has plenty to work on down on the farm, and throwing him against even worse odds isn't going to do any wonders for his development. I'm not ready to suggest that the Twins have given up on Hicks, I would hope they haven't made that mistake. I'm also not so certain that even this small sampling of what could be an exciting player is the right move.
    It's been apparent over the past few years that while slow playing certain levels, an immediate jump hurt Twins prospects to a certain extent (ask Hicks or the now struggling Kennys Vargas). Bringing Rosario up for a two week period to see what you have before he's ready could end up doing more damage than good. He's yet to enter the lineup, but that should change soon, and let's hope things don't go downhill.
     
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  25. Ted Schwerzler
    In the spring of 2013, the Minnesota Twins promoted former first round pick, Aaron Hicks, to the Opening Day roster following spring training. That spring, he hit .370/.407/.644 with four home runs and 18 runs batted in across just 73 at bats. After dealing Denard Span and Ben Revere during the offseason, Minnesota needed their next ceneterfield, and they believed Hicks was the future. Fast forward to 2015, and you know how the story went. Fortunately for Hicks, the next chapter is yet to be written, and it looks like it's going to be must read.
    In his first two big league seasons, Hicks has spent time between the major leagues, and different levels of the farm system. At the big league level, he has hit just .201/.293/.313 over the course of 150 games (or roughly one full season). There's no doubt that fans have grown cautious about expecting much more from a guy who's looked overmatched at the plate, and disinterested in the field. That all noted, it's time that the next chapter of Hick's story gets written.
     
    Following a demotion to Double-A in 2014, Hicks had a significant reality check. After being shown what major league life looks like, he was sent back to the doldrums of the farm system, and forced to travel to games by bus. If you were unconvinced that would motivate the former first round pick, Hicks' numbers the rest of the season should calm those nerves. Ending 2014 playing in 67 minor league games (43 at Double-A New Britain and 24 at Triple-A Rochester), the centerfielder hit .291/.387/.441. Despite looking at abandoning his switch-hitting ways, Hicks focused and succeeded at the plate.
    In being sent to Double-A in 2014, Hicks experienced a first in his professional career. He had never gone from Double-A to Triple-A in succession. While some prospects can skip the highest level of the minors, others benefit significantly from the continued progression. With Double-A often housing the higher prospects, it is in Triple-A where pitchers generally can pitch more than simply throw, and hitters are forced to deal with more refined breaking pitches each at bat. Hicks' struggles at the major league level were being reworked correctly for the first time in his career. After being promoted due to a strong spring and by need in the outfield, the Twins were putting Hicks in a position to best succeed.
     
    Spring training kicked off for 2015, and Hicks didn't light anything on fire. As we've seen before however, numbers are rarely indicative of how a regular season is going to go. No doubt the bigger issue this spring for Hicks was his lack of focus at certain times in games. Not knowing situations or seeming disinterested was never going to be a good impression to place on first year manager Paul Molitor. Despite arguably being the best option to start in center for the Twins, Minnesota sent Hicks to Rochester to begin the season. Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson were brought north, and Hicks was sent another message.
    For the Twins in 2015, Robinson has done everything asked of him. He's played a strong defensive outfield, and he's surprisingly been an asset at the plate. On the flip side, Schafer has been anything but. Looking overmatched in the outfield, his .189/.218/.226 line does Minnesota no favors at the plate either. While his speed is valuable, he has been unable to use it struggling to get on base. With no stolen bases through the first month, it's time Minnesota moves on from Schafer and puts Hicks back in his role. This time however, the big league club should expect it to be different.
     
    Through the first month of the season, Hicks has hit .289/.375/.494 for the Rochester Red Wings. He homered twice, drove in 13 runs, stolen two bases, and owns a 15/12 K/BB rate. After the success shown in Double and Triple-A last season, combined with his start in 2015, the Twins should be expecting a new Aaron Hicks, 2.0 if you will. While Molitor may still have to invoke some professionalism on the young man (just 25 years old), there's no doubt the Twins could use Hicks' talent on their roster.
    Despite early returns not being where the club would have liked, 150 games prior to conventional promotions should not be the end of Aaron Hicks story. There's no doubt Target Field should be calling Hicks' name soon, and Twins fans should finally expect to be the better for it. Aaron Hicks 2.0 appears to be ready.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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