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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan announced that they'd be moving their hulking slugger to right field. Despite having DH'd for the majority of 2015 and having played in the infield thus far, Miguel Sano was moving on to greener pastures. The changes has been met with skepticism, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
     
    Let's start off internally. Minnesota employed Torii Hunter in right last year. He gave Paul Molitor a .240/.293/.409 slash line on offense, while making six errors in the field en route to a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) total, and a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). In total, he was worth just 0.5 fWAR and was almost solely valuable for the locker room presence he was toted to bring with him.
     
    Considering that narrative, it's pretty plausible to suggest that Sano is immediately going to be better for Minnesota than hunter was. Offensively, in just 80 games, the Dominican slugger posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line along with 18 homers and 52 runs batted in. By all indications, Sano is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come. Considering that offensive prowess, and the low bar Hunter left in right, Sano should have no problem settling in.
     
    From there though, it's also a legitimate argument to look at Sano among baseball's best in right field.
     
    Purely from an offensive standpoint, Sano takes a back seat to no one. After posting a 2.0 fWAR across just half a season, Steamer projects Sano to improve that mark to a 3.4 fWAR in 2016, and that may be conservative. Defensively, Sano shouldn't hurt his value too significantly (if at all), and a full season of offense could definitely vault him into the realm of a 4.0 fWAR player.
     
    Looking at what right field offers across the landscape of big leaguers, Sano would come in 7th (just behind Jose Bautista) should he reach that 4.0 fWAR mark. The players ahead of him would be few, and include just Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, and the aforementioned Bautista. Looking at that group, it's also fair to suggest that with any bit of acclimation to his new role, Sano could overtake everyone from Granderson on down.
     
    Pushing Sano to right field, while maybe not the most well received, seems to be shaping up like the correct move. A gifted athlete, Sano should have very little trouble once he settles in. Being a third basemen, it's more than fair to suggest that standing in right field would be a much less taxing defensive role. Utilizing his quickness from the hot corner, and his arm strength, Sano possesses some unteachable abilities. Surprisingly fleet of foot for his size, Sano can also be taught many of the nuances the position will demand should he commit to putting in the time.
     
    On the surface, it's totally understandable to be somewhat taken aback or skeptical of the Twins decision to follow through with the Sano to the outfield campaign. When taking a deeper look at how it may play out though, there's little reason to suggest it doesn't put Molitor's best lineup on the field. Even if things work out moderately well, Minnesota will have to be pleased.
     
    At the end of the day, if Miguel Sano can't play right field, he's not going to be able to play third base. The assumption though should be that he can, and will play right field. With a little bit of work and some luck, he could vault himself into the best at the position in The Show, and that's no small feat.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently Off The Baggy took a look at what needs to play out for the Twins down in Fort Myers to start 2016 off on the right foot. Coming off a season of exceeded expectations, it's important to keep the momentum moving forward. It's hard to be optimistic without looking at what also could end up being detractors however.
     
    While the AL Central is far from a juggernaut in the year ahead, their should be a good deal of parity. Expecting the Twins to be in the thick of things is probably a good bet, but they also profile as a team ripe for regression. With their win total being set by many right around 77, Paul Molitor will have to do what he can to stave off the step back for his club.
     
    Down in Fort Myers, here's what the Twins need to avoid in order to sidestep a stumble out of the gate:
     
    Another Misstep For Meyer
     
    When Baseball Prospectus released the PECOTA numbers, Alex Meyer was among the Twins names needing to be looked at. His ERA in the low 3.00 range would be a welcomed addition to a mediocre 2015 Minnesota pen. Meyer may not make the club out of Spring Training, but he absolutely has to push the envelope. Now in his age 26 season, this needs to be the year he contributes at the big league level. Florida can't be filled with walks and inefficiency for the former top prospect, it's time for Meyer to break out.
     
    Buxton Goes North...East
     
    There's been a narrative conveyed far too often this offseason, and that's one of Byron Buxton not being the Twins Opening Day center fielders. Should that end up being the case, the Twins (and Major League Baseball's) top prospect would have fallen extremely flat on his face. In a scenario where Buxton goes to Rochester, his spring would've had to have been filled with next to no competent approach at the plate and horrible results. Continuing to suggest the narrative would seem to convey a belief that the worst is ahead for Buxton. At this point, Minnesota (as well as everyone else) should be operating under the belief that it's Buxton or bust, and it needs to be.
     
    Condition For The Haul
     
    The past two seasons, the Twins have watched two of their most important contributors hit massive second half collapses. Both Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins have struggled down the stretch (Perkins really only last year), and that needs to become a thing of the past. Molitor can't afford to have his big bats produce only part of the season. Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano need to drive the Twins all season long. Whether getting into a groove or staying in pristine condition, the Twins bats (and their closer) need to put in a full 162.
    Keep Surprises Out Of The Picture
     
    At the end of the month long grind that is spring training, the Twins watched their expected ace be nailed with an 80 game suspension in 2015. That set plans in place to have Mike Pelfrey rejoin the rotation, and push the Twins in an uncomfortable spot right out of the gate. While you'd hope another drug related suspension isn't looming, injuries popping up need to be kept at bay as well. In 2016, the Twins will have some depth to their advantage, but it will be best utilized by players pushing each other rather than out of necessity.
     
    A Perfect March, Not November
     
    Sure, spring training is a must in baseball, but it's generally reflective of very little. Under Molitor, the Twins surprised a season ago. The focus needs to be on making that playoff push and getting to November, and that focus starts in spring training. While getting acclimated and conditioned is a must for the entire organization, a March focus isn't going to yield the results Minnesota wants. Keep production in perspective, and understand that the first month is simply a building block for what's yet to come, not the other way around.
     
    It's probably a bit too over the top to suggest the Twins have a playoff team right now for the 2016 season. Considering the possibility for regression though, pushing the win total upwards is a great goal and focus to hone in on. Should the Twins bypass a step backwards, this team may actually be ahead of where it should be with its youth, and set itself up nicely for years to come. It all starts in Fort Myers though, and making sure to cease any of the above narratives from playing out is a very good thing.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Baseball fans, you've made it. At this point in the winter, the offseason is nearing its conclusion, and you are about to be rewarded with the month long grind that is spring training. For the Minnesota Twins, a team coming off of a breakout season a year ago, there's some key steps to be taken in the month ahead however.
     
    As pitchers and catchers embark on sunny Fort Myers, the Twins will soon be in full swing over at the CenturyLink Sports Complex. Now in his second season as manager, Paul Molitor will have a few narratives he needs to force playing out. Should Terry Ryan's relative inactivity this offseason fail to hurt the Twins, it will be because of the internal scenarios making the best of themselves.
     
    Here are the key areas of focus for the Twins as they build towards their return to Target Field.
     
    Cement for the pen
    A season ago, you'd have been hard pressed to find a bigger problem area for Molitor's club than in the relief arms it employed. Going into 2016, the only guarantees in the pen are Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen. From there, the expectation would be that Trevor May and Casey Fien are included in the group. Fernando Abad is the likely lefty, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Ricky Nolasco probably figures into the situation as well. When camp breaks, Minnesota absolutely must have answers in relief.
     
    Sano falls smoothly in right
     
    Terry Ryan was hesitant to trade Trevor Plouffe, and for good reason. Minnesota held onto their third basemen, and that forced Miguel Sano to find another way into the field. Bringing Byung Ho Park into the fold, just bringing a bat to the park was a thing of the past for the Twins slugger. Now expected to take over for Torii Hunter in right field, Sano needs to make it work. A good athlete, and less than large defensive shoes to fill, Sano could very well succeed in his new role. Down in fort Myers, the Dominican native will need to do everything he can to push himself and get the stumbles out of the way prior to games counting.
     
    Have bat, will travel for Byron Buxton
     
    The Twins uber prospect Byron Buxton made his big league debut in 2015, and it was anything but ideal. His defensive prowess showed immediately, but his offensive game left Twins brass hoping for mediocrity. In his second big league season, Buxton will need to flash the offensive tools he's displayed on the farm. During spring training, Buxton will need to put balls in play, get on base, and cause havoc on the basepaths. It needs to be a big step forward for baseball's best prospect, and it'll start down in Florida.
     
    Welcome Park to the big leagues
     
    Terry Ryan shocked much of the baseball world this offseason when his Twins made the winning bid for Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. After two seasons in which he hit a combiner 100+ homers in the KBO, his power has to be his saving grace in the big leagues. Adept with the glove, it's the offense that Minnesota is relying on Park for. His average can dip, and with the strikeouts, it will. Park needs to get a couple of longballs under his belt down in Fort Myers, and his transition to the MLB game needs to happen as smoothly as possible.
     
    Non-roster, non-issue
     
    Almost more than any other season of memory, the Twins non-roster invitees for 2016 spring training are compiled of a star studded list. From Jose Berrios to Nick Burdi, the group is definitely pitcher heavy this time around. Considering the Twins are looking for front running rotation talent as well as bullpen arms, that's a good situation to be in. Down in Fort Myers, the non-roster guys need to step up. Berrios could do some serious work in regards to pushing himself closer to the 25 man, and Nick Burdi or Jake Reed could begin to force the Twins hand sooner rather than later.
     
    Health above everything
     
    Although depth is something this Twins team may have more than any other in the past, relying on it early isn't a good plan. Considering there's plenty of position and roster battles that will play out throughout the year, the last thing Paul Molitor wants is to see things decided by injury. Whether on the field or off of it, Minnesota needs to leave the Grapefruit League as healthy as they entered it.
     
    The 2016 Minnesota Twins do not need to see all of these key areas play out to perfection to accomplish big things in the year ahead. However, the more they can count on out of the gate, the better chance they'll have to build on what was a successful 2015. We're almost there, and the smell of the freshly cut grass is more than apparent.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    The winter is ending and baseball is nearly back, which can only mean one thing. The Minnesota Twins are looking to bring warm thoughts to Twins Territory with the unveiling of their 2016 promotional schedule. With bobbleheads once again the highlight, there were plenty of contenders for the year ahead.
     
    With Minnesota having introduced plenty of youth to Target Field a year ago, and top prospects like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton gracing us with their presence, the resin dolls had no shortage of suitors. A season ago, it was players such as Brian Dozier and Phil Hughes, along with manager Paul Molitor, that were given the nodding headed honor. There's some fresh appearances for the season ahead however.
     
    The first bobblehead date in 2016 will come during the first month of the summer on June 18. After exploding onto the scene a season ago, Miguel Sano will be given the honor. To date, Sano has not been cast as a Twins bobblehead, and I believe his only honor of record is in a Beloit Snappers giveaway. Following his torrid offensive 2015, it was probably expected that he play a big part of the promotional schedule.
     
    At the time of his giveaway, Sano could likely be well on his way to a 30 home run season, and hopefully in the midst of a productive right field stint. If his body is anything to lend an idea, Sano's statue is going to be the biggest of the season.
     
    Following the Sano giveaway, the month of July gets very busy. First, the Twins will turn to 2015 free agent acquisition, Ervin Santana. Despite missing the first half of the season due to a PED suspension a year ago, Santana turned it on down the stretch. July 2 will be the Santana bobblehead day, and Minnesota will be hoping he looks every bit the ace they pegged him as by this point.
     
    No doubt the height of the bobblehead calendar, Torii Hunter will be honored during Twins Hall of Fame weekend on July 16. Fellow Hall of Famer, John Gordon, will join Hunter center stage in the middle of July. The pair will don collectable pins handed out to fans, while Hunter is the recipient of his first Twins bobblehead since 2006 (his Gold Glove giveaway). Expect this to be easily the most sought after bobblehead of the season.
     
    Rounding out the group, the Twins will once again turn back the clock. On July 31, Minnesota will do another vintage bobblehead giveaway. Much like last year's version, fans can expect the vintage offering to have a different look as well as a dated feel to it. While not an actual picture, the promotional schedule was accompanied by an image of the vintage offering.
    Looking at who may have been left out, there are certainly a few options. Joe Mauer has not graced a resin nodder for quite some time. Although his production has decreased, he remains Minnesota's own and would have been a welcomed addition. There is also the possibility that Byron Buxton was considered. Despite a slow start a year ago, Buxton remains one of the game's best young prospects, and his 2016 should be huge.
     
    With meaningful baseball just around the corner, expect fans to flood Target Field throughout the season after returning to relevancy in 2015. The announcement of the promotions and bobbleheads should only add to the excitement. The list in its entirety can be found here, and there's even a Sano Globe offering.
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had a glaring hole in the middle of their infield. While their were some concerns as to what might happen behind the plate with Kurt Suzuki being a regression candidate, it was a shortstop that bigger answers were needed. Danny Santana was given the starting role out of spring training (a move I agreed with), and he hung onto it for far too long. Then Eduardo Escobar emerged.
     
    Following just under 100 games of Santana accumulating errors and failing to make plays, Paul Molitor turned the role over to former utility man Eduardo Escobar. Forever tied to Francisco Liriano for the Twins, Escobar was more than ready for the main stage.
     
    In 2014, Escobar played 98 games at shortstop before going into 2015 spring training as the underdog. A year ago, he ended up starting 71 games at short, and has erased any doubt that he belongs there in the year ahead. Behind a strong offensive output, Escobar gave the Twins production they had not been capable of since J.J. Hardy owned the position.
     
    During his 2015 campaign, Escobar slashed .262/.309/.405 on the season. He followed up his 35 doubles in 2014 with 31 last year, and set a new career high with 12 homers (doubling his previous best). His 58 runs batted in and 28 walks were also new high water marks. There were a few hot stretches that bolstered the Venezuelan's overall numbers, but it was consistency that got him through the year.
     
    With his glove, Escobar may have made even bigger strides. In over 700 innings during the 2014 campaign, Eduardo was worth -6 DRS (defensive runs saved). He improved that number to a positive 2 mark in over 600 innings during 2015. Escobar also set a new career best UZR improving from 21 in 2014 to 2.6 a season ago.
     
    There's some reason to believe that things keep happening for the Twins shortstop as well. His .301 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was down more than 30 points from where it was a year ago. His 13 point average dip from last year took the brunt of that difference. It's somewhat of a curious change as his hard hit rate stayed relatively the same a season ago (28.5% as opposed to 29.2% in 2014). Arguably, the biggest deficiency Escobar saw in his contact was a near 5% dip in line drives. With that number falling, it's easy to see why the average followed suit.
     
    I have some concern that Escobar sudden power jolt may not be consistent. He'd never hit more than six homers in a season previously, and his home run to fly ball ratio pushed 10 last season, again nearly doubling the 2014 mark. Having hit just over 38% of batted balls in the air, Escobar could face some regression in the upcoming season. It was a 4% jump over his 2014 mark, and a new career high.
     
    At the end of the day though, Escobar took the main stage and ran away with the starting role. The Twins needed someone to step up and hold down the role for the immediate future. Despite Engelb Vielma being a defensive wizard, and Nick Gordon being the presumed future, along with the signing of Wander Javier, Minnesota needed an answer now. Escobar provided them that and should continue to do so in the years ahead.
     
    The way in which Francisco Liriano left Minnesota was less than ideal, but the return he provided continues to pay dividends.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Keith Law, ESPN's Baseball Insider, posted his much-anticipated prospect analysis this week. First he launched his 2016 organizational rankings, and then he followed up with his pre-2016 top 100. With the Twins once again having a loaded system, ranked third overall by law, they had seven prospects show up in the top 100. As with all rankings, there's discussion, and that's where Off The Baggy comes in.
     
    Looking at the organization rankings, there's not much to complain about with the Twins positioning. Despite graduating Miguel Sano and a host of other prospects a season ago, Minnesota trailed only the Braves and Dodgers when it came to organizational rankings. The Twins seven top 100 prospects also was in a three-way tie for first (with the other aforementioned organizations) as the most by any team in baseball.
     
    The prospects themselves are where things start to get interesting for Law. As with all players, some evaluators are going to see certain skills and detractors in a higher light. Law has provided some ammunition for discussion, while also being incredibly fair across the board.
     
    He has Byron Buxton sitting second behind only the Dodger Corey Seager on his top 100 list. Seager plays shortstop and is regarded as a premier talent. While Buxton's plus-plus tools also put him in the premier category, it's hard to ignore the hiccup that was his MLB debut. No doubt Minnesota is hoping for better out of their former first round pick, and it should come in 2016.
     
    Despite his debut, Law still sees plenty of promise in the Georgia native. He notes, "a star even if he hits .240, as that would probably come with 50 steals, 10-12 homers and big defensive contributions." That being the floor for Buxton puts the Twins in a very good place. Eduardo Escobar smacked 12 longballs a year ago, and Buxton's smooth swing should help him replicate at least that amount. He has a good feel for hitting at the plate, and very well could hit for average if things click.
     
    Over the past two years, Law has been incredibly tough on Jose Berrios. If there's a prospect I've been opposite on, it's this one. Law doesn't like Berrios' arm action, and his short stature leads to flat fastballs. He notes that as Berrios reaches the big leagues, the balls leaving the park could turn into a problem.
     
    Despite having kept the ball in the park on his way up the ladder, Berrios continue to draw Law's ire. He gave up 12 homers a year ago across Double and Triple-A. That number could inflate to the high teens in the big leagues, but I'd guess it still shouldn't be much of a concern. A season ago, Law noted Berrios being a third starter at best. Where things stand now, I'd hope he sees him as a two at worst, with ace potential. He has the makings of a very, very good option for Minnesota.
     
    Following the top two guys, Max Kepler squeezed into the top 50 for Law as well. He put himself on the map big time a season ago, and Kepler looks like he could be a real star. He does so many things really well, and he doesn't do too much poorly. Kepler should have plenty of opportunity to make waves for the Twins as early as this year, and all of the waiting on him may finally come to fruition.
     
    On the back side of the top 50, Law's first inclusion was somewhat curious to me. Putting Kohl Stewart at 53 seems to be incredibly high. The Texas native has had two seasons with declining strikeout rates and shoulder issues. He's been billed as a potential ace, but his low level struggles should be serious reason for pauses.
     
    At some point, Stewart is going to have to step out from behind the narrative that he's still transitioning from a football player, and he's going to need to make his splash. doing so in 2016 at Double-A would be a very good start, and no doubt get him back on track. Depending on how the year ahead goes, he could be an option for the Twins in 2017, or he could fall even further off of my radar.
     
    Rounding out the group is a trio of interesting names. Tyler Jay appears first and remains tough to project. As a left-handed reliever, he's probably close to big league ready. Minnesota no doubt drafted him in the first round to start however, and that transition is going to take more time.
     
    I've talked plenty about Jorge Polanco, and he remains one of the most interesting prospects for me in the year ahead. I'd contend he could start on a handful of big league teams at second base right now. The Twins don't have room, and I'd struggle to move Trevor Plouffe to put Polanco and his questionable arm at the hot corner. He's either going to hit his way into the Twins plans, or maybe more likely, into some other organizations.
     
    Last but not least, Nick Gordon makes the list. Of all the Twins prospects Law included, it's Gordon that probably gets chastised the most. No longer seen as an All-Star type by the ESPN Insider, Law suggest Gordon is "very likely to remain at shortstop and become an above-average defender there."
     
    Noting the change in long term belief in regards to Gordon, I struggle to see what Law is making such a brash decision off of. His evaluation is sound, but a half of a season at Low-A Cedar Rapids that started slow shouldn't be worthy of a complete reversal. Gordon slashed roughly the same at Low-A as he did in Rookie Ball, and it was his slow start that no doubt caused the dip in batting average. At just 20 years old, it's probably best to hold out on dropping his season until we see what he can do at either Fort Myers or Chattanooga in the not so distant future.
     
    As the dust settles, Minnesota once again proves to have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Twins have done a great job of drafting talent of late, and it has no doubt contributed to the renewed excitement around the ballclub. We should continue to see those efforts pay off in the years to come.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Looking at the state of the Minnesota Twins heading into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the word depth has come up often. Whether it be the surplus of young talent rising to the top of the system, the pitching staff and multiple arms competing to complete it, or the 25 man as a whole. For the first time in a while, the Twins have some depth working to their advantage. Quite possibly however, it could work to their disadvantage.
     
    Some of the focus this offseason has been in regards to the starting rotation and the perception of depth among that group. Minnesota has three pitchers locked into starting roles including: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. Behind them, a combination of Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer, and Trevor may will slot into the final two spots. As it pertains to pitching, the fear is their is more quantity than their is quality options.
     
    It's pretty easy to suggest some of those starting pitching concerns are overblown. The Twins starting staff is going to be better than it was a season ago, and even significantly isn't much of a stretch. No matter who fills out those final two spots (though it likely will be Duffey and Milone), there's plenty of insurance options directly behind them.
     
    Looking at the 25 man roster however, the Twins have another area where their depth may come into question. Looking at what the projected bench may be, Minnesota could find itself in some interesting spots. The goal for playoff and World Series team's alike is to have a better 25th player than that of your opponent. Some nights, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Twins to accomplish that feat.
     
    Paul Molitor should have Eduardo Nunez, John Ryan Murphy, Oswaldo Arcia, and Danny Santana at his disposal on a nightly basis. Of them, you'd be hard pressed to argue any one of them is a complete player and offers immense upside for a 2016 Twins squad needing to squeeze out a few extra wins. Nunez is with the Twins on a one-year, arbitration deal, while Santana and Arcia are out of options, and Murphy is looking to carve into the starting lineup.
     
    A season ago, Nunez hit .282/.327/.431 in 72 games for Minnesota. That was easily the best slash line of his career, and a great deal better than the .267/.308/.388 career mark he's posted thus far. His 1.1 fWAR was nearly a full win above his previous career best, and considering his -0.6 fWAR career mark, a significant jump for a single season. Nunez also batted above .300 (.314 to be exact) on balls in play for just the second time of his career (the other time was in a 38 game sduring 2012 for the Yankees).
     
    Nunez's hard hit rates didn't change much last season, and his contact rate actually dipped a little. He's still going to provide the Twins positional flexibility, but the offensive production is likely more mirage than it is indicative of what's to come.
     
    Then there's Danny Santana. If there's a guy that knows about BABIP it's Santana. After hitting .319/.353/.472 in 2014, Santana's inflated .405 BABIP brought him back down to earth. Minnesota gave him an incredibly long leash a season ago, and in 91 games he slashed a terrible .215/.241/.291. His -15 DRS (defensive runs saved), and 16 errors at SS in just 66 games were beyond bad, and he's since been moved back to the outfield.
     
    Santana is out of options in 2016, and that forces the Twins hand. He should be deployed as a super utility player that doesn't defend anywhere exceptionally well. His infield defense has been covered, and he's just a bit below average in center (a position in which he should only spell Byron Buxton). For Santana though, it comes down to whether he can hit at all, and a season ago, the Twins didn't see it.
     
    That brings us to Arcia, who like Santana, absolutely needs to hit. Of the group thus far, Arcia no doubt presents the most offensive upside. He's just a year removed from a 20 homer output, and the hulking Venezuelan has real power when he connects. The issue is that doesn't happen often enough.
     
    Despite posting a nice .276/.338/.379 slash line in 19 games with the Twins, the power didn't show itself enough to get him extended run. He reeled off a nice home run stretch at Triple-A in 2015, but he finished with an awful .199/.257/.372 slash line in 79 games for Rochester. He's never posted below a 15.0% swinging strike rate, and last season, he nearly swung and missed 20% of the time. With the Twins a year ago, he also chased pitches out of the zone nearly 50% of the time.
     
    A bad outfielder (-27 DRS in 204 games played), Arcia has to hit to give the Twins any real benefit. Molitor can't afford to play him and Miguel Sano in the outfield at the same time, and coming off of the bench cold may not help his bat. Arcia, like Santana, is out of options, and without his bat catching fire, could do more harm for Minnesota than good.
     
    Finally, the club will have a capable big league catcher to swap with Kurt Suzuki for the first time in a while. Gone are the days of calling up Four-A type players like Eric Fryer and Chris Herrmann. Murphy is far from a set-the-world-on-fire type, but he's got promise to develop into a nice big league starter. With Minnesota looking to avoid activating Suzuki's player option for 2017, the starting role should become Murphy's role sooner than later.
     
    In his career, Murphy has never played more than 67 games at the big league level in a season. Over the last two years for the Yankees however (99 games) he's slashed .280/.324/.394. There's probably more doubles power than home run reliability there, but he looks the part of a capable big league hitter. Most importantly for the Twins is that Murphy possesses capable receiving skills as well as the ability to throw would be base-stealers out (did so at a 28% clip in 2015).
     
    Paul Molitor is going to ease Murphy into the starting lineup, but he's more than a throw in secondary catcher. While not an offensive juggernaut, his role on the Twins bench is much more in line with future promise than his counterparts.
     
    At the end of the day, planning to fill out your bench with starting caliber players isn't a realistic strategy. What the Twins have though may be more a by-product of their situation, and not exactly the depth on the 25 man roster you'd like to see. It's tough to envision top prospects like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler coming up to the big league level in a reserve role, but the Twins could probably advance their overall ability be considering it at some point.
     
    Should the Twins move towards a second playoff push in 2016, it will likely be some combination of their bench out producing expectations, and that bench transforming. No doubt making waves in October is about getting production from your best players, but the Twins will also be looking to push the envelope when it comes to the guys that round out the club as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    The shortest answer to the proposed question possible; better than you think. Really though, Plouffe entered the offseason as an arbitration eligible player for the Twins, and secured a nice raise to the tune of a one-year $7.25 million deal. With another season of arbitration eligibility ahead of him, and the expected production to follow, he could enter a whole new tier by 2017.
     
    Heading into the winter months, the Minnesota Twins were faced with a decision. Having Miguel Sano ready for more playing time, and needing to move out from a designated hitter only role, the Twins had to figure out what to do with Plouffe. Arguably one of the American League's best third basemen, his trade value was going to be somewhat muted by the fact that he's already 29, in his prime or not.
     
    I took the stance in January that holding onto Plouffe was absolutely the right decision. For a young team like the Twins, moving on from top talent is not a great strategy, and a player like Plouffe is always going to be more valuable in Minnesota than wherever else he goes. Whether the return was a relief arm or something better, holding off on fielding offers was the smart play by GM Terry Ryan.
     
    What Plouffe gave the Twins in 2015 was nothing to be disappointed about. He was worth 2.5 fWAR (down a bit from his 3.6 fWAR mark in 2014), and slashed a respectable .244/.307/.435. His 152 games played was easily a career high, and career marks were also set in runs scored (74), hits (140), triples (4), and RBI (86). Plouffe's 22 home runs were the second highest mark of his career, and helped him to eclipse the 20 plateau for the first time since 2012.
     
    Unfortunately for Plouffe, his detractors led to some muted numbers. He led the league in times grounding into double plays (28), and struck out a career high 124 times. His on-base percentage being just north of .300 was a relative step back rom the .328 mark he posted during 2014. For Plouffe, some of it came down to tough luck.
     
    In the year that was, Plouffe posted the best hard hit contact rate of his career (33.5%). Generating just a .274 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) however, suggests that the Twins third basemen didn't find a ton of holes on those hard hit balls. He also hit over 40% of his balls in play on the ground, while generating just above 18% of his batted balls as line drives. Hitting the ball hard into the ground, Plouffe's launch angles weren't going to help him accumulate extra base hits.
     
    At the plate, Trevor's approach continues to be one that should benefit him in the long run. He doesn't chase often, and once again swung at less than 30% (26.2% to be exact) of pitches thrown outside of the zone. When swinging at pitches in the zone, he made contact over 88% of the time, and had a total contact rating over 80% for the fourth straight year. Not a big swing and miss guy, Plouffe whiffed on pitches just 8.7% of the time.
     
    For brief stretches, it's all come together for Plouffe as well. From Opening Day through the end of May, Plouffe was arguably the best third basemen in baseball not named Josh Donaldson. Over that 46 game stretch, the Twins third basemen slashed .279/.352/.488. He clubbed eight homers, drove in 29 runs, and doubled 10 times. The results were also aided by the type of balls Plouffe was putting in play, as he owned a .317 BABIP over that stretch. From that point forward is where Plouffe's season took the opposite direction. His BABIP from June 1 through the end of the year was just .256, while his slash line rested at .229/.288/.411.
     
    My belief going forward is that Plouffe is more the player the Twins saw at the beginning of 2015, rather than through the end of it. Having to struggle through unlucky bounces and poor circumstances, much of the hot start was overlooked. In making a few tweaks to get the ball off the ground a bit more often, the season could have ended significantly different for the California native.
     
    The offseason has been one that's been incredibly busy for Plouffe. He's been a dad for the first time off the field, handed a nice raise, and is working towards an even better year ahead. The Twins didn't approach him about a long term extension during arbitration, but they may wish they had. Should Plouffe take another step forward in 2016, he's going to quickly surpass the $10 million average annual value mark, and enter into the discussion among the game's best third basemen.
     
    Regardless of the positional shifts happening around him, Minnesota was best served to hold onto Trevor Plouffe. A late-bloomer that is in the midst of his prime, pushing towards a trip to San Diego in the middle of the summer shouldn't be out of the question. Plouffe may have become somewhat of a complimentary Twin, but make no mistake, there's more production there.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    Let's rewind back to March 2015. It was a simpler time for the Twins. Spring Training was well underway, and they were just on the brink of seeing their latest free agent acquisition pitching meaningful games at Target Field. Then a failed drug test happened, and it was followed by an 80 game suspension. Although Ervin Santana had plenty of promise for the Twins a season ago, I wondered before things went down hill, what exactly the expectations should have been.
     
    Taking aim at Santana's Fielding Independent Pitching numbers, I questioned what he would look like in a Twins uniform. Knowing that the outfield was going to include Torii Hunter, and that left field seemed to be up in the air, things could have been ugly. Fortunately for Santana, his debut with the Twins came with defensive gem Eddie Rosario already entrenched in the every day lineup. What happened however, followed the cautionary mold.
     
    In 2015, Santana made 17 starts for the Twins. He compiled a 4.00 ERA that was backed by a 4.17 FIP. His strikeout numbers took a dip (6.8 per nine as opposed to 8.2 the season before), and he allowed 12 long balls in just over 108 innings pitched. Far from poor numbers, Santana also didn't pitch to the tune of the rotational ace that the Twins had hoped he would be.
     
    What Santana has going for him however is the way in which he ended the 2015 campaign. Following some rust needing to be knocked off (which took roughly 10 starts), Santana began to see things click. In his final seven games of the 2015 season, he was extremely impressive. Over the course of 50.0 IP, Santana owned a 1.62 ERA and allowed just a .209/.275/.294 batting average against. In those seven starts, he also surrendered just one home run, and he also struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings.
     
    As a whole, Santana's performance equated to the lowest hard hit contact rate of his career (27.5%), and he shaved off over 3% of his line drive rate from 2014 (down to 21.5%). Neil Allen's work also showed through with the Twins newest acquisition in that Santana threw his curveball over 13% of the time for just the second season of his career.
     
    This leads us back to where we are now. Santana should be in a significantly better place heading into the upcoming season, but one area remains a concern. Although Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario should help drive an ERA down much like that of the outfield defense the Royals employed for Santana, Miguel Sano isn't going to do him any favors. That will be a notion supported by the entirety of the Twins pitching staff, but one Santana will need to surely avoid.
     
    Arguably the best part of the Twins pitching situation is in the fact that it's in a much better place than that of even a season ago. Regardless of the oddly capably season Mike Pelfrey gave Paul Molitor, it's a tough argument to suggest the depth and talent for 2016 isn't a much better grouping. With Phil Hughes as a prime rebound candidate, and Kyle Gibson looking to take another step forward, pressure should be lifted off of Santana's shoulders.
    Seeing Ervin Santana mow down hitters at nearly a 9.0 K/9 rate likely isn't going to happen. His numbers in the National League were never realistically going to translate. However, the fear of his FIP numbers becoming more reflective of his total ability should be muted by the depth around him and the talent behind him.
     
    Often times national writers want to point to the fact that the Twins don't have a de facto ace. You'd be hard pressed to tab any one pitcher as a one game playoff best bet. That said, Santana is more than capable of being a key cog in a rotation that, as a whole, should be one of the best in Twins recent history.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    When looking at the projected 25 man roster leaving Fort Myers for the Minnesota Twins, you would be hard pressed to find a player considered more of a lock than Brian Dozier. Minnesota gave Dozier a four-year, $20 million extension just a year ago, and he remains one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. What Dozier's situation does do is present a crossroads for the players behind him.
     
    Although depth is something the Twins seemingly have throughout the organization, the focus behind Dozier no doubt has to be on Jorge Polanco.
     
    The Twins commitment to Dozier is an interesting one. The extension was signed at a very reasonable $5 million on an average annual basis. The club bought out Dozier's arbitration years, but did not buy into any of his free agency eligibility. Set to become a free agent at age 32 in 2019, the Twins will have another decision to make at that point.
     
    In the first season of his newly signed deal, Dozier rewarded the Twins by turning in his first All-Star performance. Garnering a handful of MVP votes as well, the Mississippi native turned in career high numbers in games played (157), hits (148), doubles (39), homers (28), runs batted in (77), and slugging percentage (.444). Following up his 4.7 fWAR season in 2014, Dozier gave the Twins another productive year compiling a 3.4 fWAR mark.
     
    No matter how you look at it, the Twins are nowhere near a point of moving on from the late-peaking 28 year-old. That then turns the focus to Polanco.
     
    One of the youngest ever to debut in a Twins uniform, Jorge Polanco first showed up in the major leagues during the 2014 season. At 20 years-old, his five games worth of exposure were a testament to just how real Minnesota believes his talent to be. Across the minor leagues, his bat has flashed major league potential, and it's in the season ahead that it should truly take center stage.
     
    Polanco has been playing in the Twins organization since 2010 as a 16 year-old in the Dominican League. Across six minor league seasons, he's put together a career .288/.348/.404 slash line. Not a home run threat, his speed has played up in recent seasons stealing 17 or more bases each of the past two seasons. He's flashed gap power and should be a doubles threat, with the ability to stretch for the extra base. Tough to strike out, Polanco has never fanned more than 90 times in a season, and he taken walks about half as often as he's struck out. Putting it simply, Polanco's bat is ready.
     
    Where things get problematic for the next step with Polanco is on the defensive side. A second basemen for 240 plus games in the Twins system, the only position he's played more has been shortstop (350 games). Minnesota no doubt would like Polanco to play the left side of the diamond for positioning purposes, but it has continued to be a square peg in a round hole type of fit. He has less than ideal arm strength, and has made 63 errors in 221 games over the past two seasons at the position.
     
    Welcome to the conundrum facing the Twins. With his bat, Polanco has proven ready for the next step, but his positional inability has held him back. He'll likely see the bulk of his time in 2016 at Triple-A Rochester, but for an advanced hitter, Minnesota could see him regress or plateau as a lack of challenge is presented.
     
    Looking at what other options Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins brain trust have, it can't be ignored that the trade front may provide the best avenue. What's unfortunate is that many organizations have a guy similar to a Jorge Polanco. He won't be the centerpiece in any deal with a significant return, but is more than a throw in when compiling a package to trade away. Considering the options Minnesota has, planning out the long term scope of Polanco with the projection of belief for Dozier is something that should be considered sooner rather than later.
     
    With Eduardo Nunez still arbitration eligible a year from now, a super utility type fit for Polanco doesn't seem to be in the cards either. As Brian Dozier continues to hold down his role, and Polanco continues to fumble through the shortstop situation, options continue to become less visible. A nice player without a true fit, we're approaching a time to get creative.
     
    No doubt a young team like the Twins is in a position to appreciate talent. Their is a line that has to be toed somewhere between hoarding it, and using it to your benefit however.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    It's just February, but making predictions far after things play out isn't much of a leap. With Twins Fest now in the books, and the next big event for the club being Spring Training, it's time to take a look at what lies ahead. The Diamond Awards recently acknowledged the best of the organization for the year that was. This is a stab at who ends up being recognized for a great 2016 season.
     
    Bounce Back Pitcher Of The Year- Alex Meyer
     
    Few players had a more rough 2015 season than Meyer. After being Baseball Prospectus' 14th rated prospect, things went incredibly downhill for the former Kentucky Wildcat. He transitioned to a full time relief role, and his debut in the big leagues lasted all of two games.
     
    In his second year at Triple-A Rochester, Meyer posted a 4.79 ERA (over a run worse than 2014), along with another increased walk rate (4.7 BB/9). Meyer actually kept the ball in the yard more often (just 4 HR allowed as opposed to 10 in 2014), but issued far too many free passes. He continued to strike out a healthy amount of batters however, posting a 9.8 K/9.
     
    Entering 2016, Meyer should have a legitimate shot to compete for the Opening Day bullpen. He's got stuff that should play up even more in relief, and could prove to stabilize a shaky Twins pen. Deserving of a September call-up that didn't come, Meyer posted a 0.46 ERA in his final nine games of 2015 (19.2 IP). Across those frames, he allowed opposing hitters to slash a paltry .174/.275/.188 off of him. I believe Meyer is going to see things click in the year ahead, and everyone will be better for it.
     
    Bounce Back Hitter Of The Year- Oswaldo Arcia
     
    If there's something that Arcia is going to offer the Twins, it's absolutely going to have to come with his bat. An abomination in the outfield, Arcia has now been surpassed on the positional depth chart by infield transplant Miguel Sano. Out of options however, the Twins will no doubt include Arcia on the 25 man roster.
     
    A season ago, the slugging Venezuelan saw action in just 19 big league games. Over that time, albeit a small sample size, he posted his best average (.276) and on-base percentage (.338). He's a year removed from a 20 home run season, and that's something the Twins need him to get back to. Outside of a torrid home run stretch at Triple-A, Arcia slashed an ugly .199/.257/.372.
     
    Expect Minnesota to give Arcia every chance to prove it. Just 24 years old, and still with plenty of power, Arcia's potential remains too much to give up on. He should see the field in limited action behind Sano, and the biggest key needs to be plate discipline. After swinging and missing far too often early on, a heightened contact rate could immediately push him back into the conversation among the Twins best young assets.
     
    Minor League Pitcher Of The Year- Stephen Gonsalves
     
    A season ago, the award went to the Twins top pitching prospect, Jose Berrios. It's Gonsalves who could end up stealing the spotlight from the likes of Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart in 2016 however. Likely slated to start his year at High-A Fort Myers, expecting him to stay there long is probably a fool's wish.
     
    Through his three year professional career, Gonsalves has advanced two levels each season. After dominating Low-A Cedar Rapids to the tune of a 1.15 ERA in 2015, Gonsalves followed that up with a 2.61 ERA at High-A. His strikeout rate dipped considerably after his promotion (12.6 K/9 at A 6.2 K/9 at A+), but that could be attributed to an adjustment period.
     
    Now 21 years old, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Gonsalves took a path similar to Berrios in the year ahead. A short stint at Fort Myers, followed by the bulk of the season being played at Chattanooga, and then a finale for Rochester would make a decent amount of sense. As a lefty who is far more dominant than crafty,. Gonsalves is continually pushing his ceiling, and he's begun to garner some serious national attention.
     
    Minor League Hitter Of The Year- Jorge Polanco
     
    Looking at the state of Twins positional prospects, the farm system has all but flipped the script. A year ago it was the offensively contributing prospects that debuted at Target Field. In 2016, pitching becomes the focal point with hitters left to emerge on their own. I expect Polanco to do exactly that.
     
    Starting at Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, Polanco turned in a solid .289/.346/.393 slash line. He flashed some power launching six homers, and his extra base ability was witnessed in his 17 doubles. Although there's some very real questions about whether or not Polanco will ever play the field good enough to not be a liability, his bat appears all but ready.
     
    I have some serious concerns about Polanco getting bored on the farm, and stunting his development in the very near future. Blocked by Brian Dozier and without a true path to get to the big leagues regularly, forcing the Twins hand with his bat seems like a good bet. Whether or not Polanco becomes expendable remains to be seen, but I'm going to bet on him to hit in the year ahead.
     
    MLB Pitcher Of The Year- Kyle Gibson
     
    I went back and forth on this one for a while, as I believe Trevor May is going to truly be something special out of the bullpen. My selection of Gibson though is a testament to the step up I see him making in the year ahead. Gibson was already good in 2015, but 2016 should see him become great.
     
    After posting a sub 4.00 ERA (3.84) and a 6.7 K/9 (career high) last season, Gibson has set the bar pretty high. He should be capable of driving that ERA down even further, and while the strikeouts may slip some, he's going to be really good. A late-bloomer due to injury, Gibson is entering his prime and set to do some impressive things during it. The former first round pick has the ability to push towards the top of the rotation, and the Twins will no doubt be better for it.
     
    At the conclusion of the 2016 season, suggesting Gibson as the staff ace even with a good year from both Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes wouldn't be crazy. Again, I really like Trevor May in the bullpen, but I expect 2016 to be something impressive from the former Missouri Tiger.
     
    MLB Hitter Of The Year- Trevor Plouffe
     
    At different points during the conclusion of the 2015 season and into the offseason, it appeared as though the Twins may move on from their third basemen. With Miguel Sano needing to play the field somewhere, Plouffe trending towards being expendable. Thankfully that didn't happen, and the Twins retained one of their most talented players.
     
    After agreeing to a one-year deal, Plouffe could end up having the Twins wish they would have went the extension route. In 2015, he posted career highs in runs, hits, triples, RBI, and games played. He hit over 20 homers for the first time since 2012, and he was a catalyst to an improved Minnesota offense. That might have been a mirage, but a better bet is that it was a sign of things to come.
     
    Entering his year 30 season, Plouffe could do a bit more in the year ahead. He's a double machine, and the power should continue to be there. Pushing his slugging percentage back towards the .450 mark isn't unreasonable, and the added pop around him in the lineup should only help him. Look for Plouffe to once again help pace the Twins offense in the year ahead.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    In part, the question has a very simple answer. What's left for Ricky Nolasco is two years and $24 million (with at least a $1 million buyout in year three), at least on a contractual level. The question really is, what's left for Nolasco when it comes to performance going forward? That question is much more difficult to answer, but there are a few clues to consider.
     
    First and foremost, it's worth noting that Nolasco's role appears certain to change for the Twins in 2016. When looking at the starting rotation options, Nolasco can't find himself any higher than sixth on the list. He appears destined for a relief role, even if he's not ready to succumb to that fact. Pitching out of the bullpen could actually benefit Nolasco's wear and tear as well as his production however.
     
    Since signing with the Twins in 2014, Nolasco has pitched in just 196.1 innings. In that time, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA in 35 starts, and owns a 4.15 FIP. His K/9 rate checks in at 6.9 (just below his career average) and his 2.4 BB/9 is just above where he's been for his career. Essentially one full season worth of work, Nolasco has been as bad as he's ever been, and significantly worse than the mediocre to average pitcher he was once in the National League.
     
    Across his career, Nolasco has had standout seasons just a couple of times. Most notably in 2009 and 2013 with the Marlins (and briefly the Dodgers), he posted fWAR numbers of 4.1 and 3.2 respectively. What jumps off the page in that time is just how good Nolasco's slider was.
     
    In 2009, the pitch was worth 9.7 wSL (slider runs above average per PITCHf/x). In 2013, when he was dealt to Los Angeles, it was worth an even better 13.2 wSL. Both of those numbers are easily the best of his career. When looking at the last two seasons with the Twins, Nolasco's slider has been worth -8.0 and 1.1 wSL respectively. The pitch, when working, has kept hitters of balance and no doubt been Nolasco's go to.
     
    When looking at what has gone wrong, it's interesting to note that contact rates haven't really plagued the lifetime National Leaguer. In 2015 (albeit in a small sample size) Nolasco generated the second highest soft contact rate of his career at 20.3%. He did allow a career worst 32.5% hard contact in 2014 with the Twins, and that no doubt played into batters enjoying a very nice .351 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For Nolasco though, the issues seem much simpler.
     
    Far too often in his time with the Twins, Nolasco has failed to generate critical strikes. No more important than the first pitch of at-bat, Nolasco has posted his two worst first pitch strike totals of his career in back to back years. In 2014, he threw a strike to start an at-bat just 57.7% of the time, and a year ago, that number was an ugly 52.0%. Having to pitch himself back into counts, and play into a hitter's hands, Nolasco was generally fighting against himself. Generating swinging strikes just 9.15% of the time as a Twin, he's put together a recipe for disaster.
     
    As things trended downhill for the Twins during their 90 loss seasons, a staple of what Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson were once about had gone by the wayside. Getting ahead in counts and pounding the strike zone seemed much more likely the oddity rather than the norm. Nolasco is an embodiment of that continuing to take place, and it's no doubt plagued him to the tune of two very poor years with Minnesota.
     
    With the reality that the bullpen appears to be his 2016 home, a change in execution is an absolute must for the California native. Despite not walking batters, Nolasco absolutely can't afford to fall behind in relief. The reality is that if he can reverse course on his current trend, things could actually turn around for the Twins $49 million man.
     
    Velocity wise, Nolasco has still thrown his fastballs over 90 miles per hour each year of his career. Although his slider has lost some heat, the usage out of the pen could be helpful in providing a boost. Being utilized in short stretches and brief inning by inning periods, Nolasco could likely reinvent himself in the year ahead. Although the relief role may not be one he continues to operate in, or even finish his career with, it could be the key to bringing back part of his former self.
     
    By all measures, the Twins over-extended themselves on an average National League arm in the first place. They have been rewarded by a guy that has fallen behind in counts and been burned by it. To get him back on track, his slider needs to snap once again, and hitters need to believe they will be challenged early. At this point, the Twins are already swimmimg upstream, but generating something from the 2014 product is a must.
     
    Betting on Ricky Nolasco at this point is far from the best idea, but it's clear there's a path to success that can be executed upon.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2015, the Minnesota Twins had to know that their pitching staff was going to need some help. Considering that Ervin Santana was going to miss half of the season, and an expected contribution from Ricky Nolasco wasn't realistic, a different arm had to emerge. While Trevor May and Alex Meyer both served as prospect types that could fit the bill, it was another guy who stepped up; Kyle Gibson.
     
    During his second full season at the big league level, the former first-round pick and Missouri Tiger took significant strides forward. He nearly touched 200 innings pitched (194.2), and for stretches, looked to be the ace of the staff. When the dust settled, Gibson's 3.84 ERA ranked 20th among AL starters, and was tops among the Twins staff.
     
    Improvements came virtually across the board for Gibson. He saw new career best marks in strikeouts per nine (6.7), strikeouts as a whole (145), hits per nine (8.6), WHIP (1.289), ERA+ (108), and he tossed his first complete game. What may be even more exciting is that Gibson likely also has some untapped potential. His walk rate actually increased a season ago (3.0 BB/9) and his FIP nearly touched 4.00 (3.96).
     
    Behind the decreases the Gibson experience in year two, a major culprit seems to be the long fly. Surrendering 18 homers in 2015, Gibson saw just about 11.5% of his allowed fly balls leave the park. Despite being a pitcher who relies on ground balls (53.4% in 2015) Gibson gave up more hard contact than in his 2014 campaign (27.3%).
     
    An adjustment period could have also been happening for Gibson. As with all Twins pitchers a season ago, they were getting accustomed to new pitching coach Neil Allen. Allen noted for his changeup expertise, had Gibson make a significant tweak in his repertoire. After previously throwing just about 12% of his pitches as changeups, Kyle threw them nearly 20% of the time a season ago. With his fastball and slider percentages down, Gibson was able to focus more on keeping hitters off balance with his off speed pitch.
     
    It is in that transition that we can attribute some of Gibson's upward trending success when it comes to attacking hitters. In 2015, Gibson posted a career best 35.7% outside-of-the-zone strike percentage. With hitters chasing, he was more able to find himself in pitcher's counts. Attacking early was a plus as well, throwing over 60% of his first pitches as strikes for the first time in his career. In total, the changes equated to hitters swinging and missing on a career best 9.8% of Gibson's pitches (up a full percent from his previous career high).
     
    Although fWAR for pitchers is not the indicator it is for hitters, the number is still a useful qualification of overall effectiveness. Following a 2.5 fWAR a season ago, it's fair to believe that Gibson has a good deal more to offer the Twins. As a late peaking player due to injury, Gibson at 28 should now be entering the bulk of his prime.
     
    Expecting him to make the eventual leap to something like a 3.0-3.5 fWAR pitcher is not out of the realm of possibility. In 2015, just 10 AL pitchers reached that mark. The list include: David Price, Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, Carlos Carrasco, Collin McHugh, Sonny Gray, and Danny Salazar.
    Although Gibson may not have the name recognition as most of that group, seeing him break into it is something the Twins could witness, and no doubt it would be for the better.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    When you have a farm system as stacked as the Minnesota Twins boast, you're bound to have a handful of prospects vying for recognition. 2015 was Miguel Sano's time to shine, and 2016 will see the spotlight cast on names such as Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. Not lost in the shuffle however, there's a German born prospect that's ready for the bright lights. Enter Max Kepler.
     
    After making his debut in September for the Twins last season, Kepler is focused on getting to the next level for good. Name the Twins minor league hitter of the year, Kepler owned a .318/.410/.520 slash line across 118 minor league contests a season ago. He also launched nine home runs while tripling 13 times. Calling it a breakout campaign would no doubt be selling the situation short.
     
    In the field, Kepler was plenty impressive as well. A natural outfielder with legit speed, he showed his versatility starting 36 games at first base. With a .994 fielding percentage in over 300 innings at first, Kepler played the position as smoothly as possible. Spending 63 games in the outfield, Kepler has the potential to play all three spots above average. Most comfortable in center, Kepler's arm strength and ability also bodes well in the corner spots.
     
    For the Twins, how Kepler fits in will somewhat depend on what current big leaguers end up being able to stick. On Opening Day, Byron Buxton will be flanked by Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. The former is venturing into new territory having never played outfield before, while the latter is going to face an uphill battle replicating his offensive success. No doubt the Twins will do everything they can to find Sano time in the field, so him making things work is of the utmost importance. For Rosario, a better approach at the plate will be key to him unlocking continued playing time. Behind the starters, neither Oswaldo Arcia nor Danny Santana appear in real contention to take playing time from a ready Kepler.
     
    You could most likely make the argument that there is a true non-zero chance Kepler makes the Twins out of spring training. He's already on the 40 man roster, and was given his cup of coffee a season ago. A torrid spring will likely have the Twins taking a long look at the possibility, not unlike the situation with Eddie Rosario out of Fort Myers a season ago. At the end of the day though, the likeliest outcome is that Kepler heads back to the farm.
     
    What is not to be lost in the situation, is what lies ahead for the German native. Expecting the Twins to rely on Kepler, likely to a heavy extent, at some point in the upcoming year is not far fetched. Steamer currently has Kepler projected to play just over 50 games for Minnesota and that number may actually be low. Whether a by-product of a 25 man fallout, or another strong season in the minor leagues, Kepler is going to force his way into the Twins plans in short order.
     
    Minnesota has had significant conviction behind Kepler for quite some time. He was signed as a 17 year-old and has been a name brought up throughout the organization since the day he turned pro. Now just 22, the blossoming of ability is starting to take a more certain shape. Although not of the pedigree that Buxton possesses, it's more than fair to argue Kepler is not far off.
     
    As the Twins transition to making Kepler a regular, he has all the makings of a possible All Star. Competing at that level year in and year out remains to be seen. Thus far in Kepler's career, his largest detractor has been staying healthy. Going off of his plus hit tool as well as speed and defense, a consistent on field presence could lend him to be a 3.0 fWAR player for the Twins or better. Should Buxton turn into the elite player he has been billed as, Minnesota could very possibly have their 1b to Buxton's 1a in Kepler.
     
    For some time, plenty of national outlets have taken note of Kepler's ability, but 2015 gave things new steam. Expect a final promotion to come at some point in the upcoming year, and seeing Kepler take off and run with it should be the assumption. Two All Star types in the outfield is something that Minnesota has not had for quite some time, and the indication now is that it could be something experienced for years to come.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    At this point, January is essentially in the books and February brings the realization that spring training is just around the corner. Pitchers and catchers will begin to report, and meaningful baseball will soon be here. After competing at a higher level than expected in 2015, the Twins have heightened expectations for the season ahead. The question is, how did they position themselves to compete this offseason.
     
    Going into the winter, the most notable area of need for the Twins was in the bullpen. Once again at the bottom of the big leagues in strikeouts out of the pen (392), Minnesota needed to get better. The Twins owned the 10th worst relief ERA (3.95) and surrendered the 8th worst batting average against in 2015 among bullpens (.254). No doubt the biggest area of necessary improvement came in the form of left-handed relief.
     
    Minnesota had relied on Brian Duensing too long, and in 2015 it caught up to them with him having posted a 4.25 ERA along with just a 4.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. Void of other options until the acquisition of Neal Cotts late in the season (which resulted in just a 3.95 ERA and 5.9 K/9), Minnesota was downstream without a paddle.
     
    To date, the Twins most glaring weakness has yet to be formally addressed, and that could prove costly. After seeing the relief market be filled with high dollar deals (Antonio Bastardo just signed with the Mets for two years and $12m), Terry Ryan decided to go a different route. Bringing in the likes of Buddy Boshers and Fernando Abad on MiLB deals, the Twins hope to shore up their deficiency with a low risk, low reward type.
     
    It's Abad who appears destined for the left-handed pen role (outside of closer Glen Perkins). Just a year removed from a sub 2.00 ERA and coming off a second straight season of increasing strikeout rates (8.5 K/9 in 2015), Abad could end up being a great get for the Twins. With Taylor Rogers as an internal option as well, Minnesota decided to play the pen in a less certain fashion.
     
    Moving the needle the most was the signing of a right-handed power bat, Byung Ho Park, from the Korean Baseball organization. Terry Ryan and the Twins ponied up nearly $13 million in posting fees to then bring in their new DH on a four-year, $12 million deal. Having clobbered more than 100 home runs in his previous two season in Korea, the Twins are hoping at least a portion of that power will translate to the big league game.
     
    When it comes to signings, the minor league pitching deals along with the contract handed out to Park sum up the Twins activity. While agreeing to arbitration deals with all six of their eligible candidates, most notably Trevor Plouffe, the Twins have plenty of familiar faces returning to the fold.
     
    From a roster standpoint, Ryan also helped to address an organization deficiency in dealing Aaron Hicks (from a position of surplus) to the Yankees for John Ryan Murphy. Now slated to backup and eventually supplant Kurt Suzuki, Murphy gives the Twins a legitimate option at the big league level. Minnesota no doubt hopes that Murphy will soon be joined by prospect Stuart Turner, and added depth with waiver claim John Hicks from the Mariners. While none of the catching options are sure things, the do provide potential answers going forward.
     
    As a whole, the Twins offseason strategy appears to lean towards an aggressive movement of the young talent from within. Deciding not to make significant waves in the bullpen suggest that we could see the emergence of Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, or J.T. Chargois sometime soon in 2016. Should that be the route Ryan and Paul Molitor choose to go, it would be a commendable one, albeit needing to be seen to be believed.
     
    Offensively, Minnesota will need to rely on a more consistent approach in the season ahead. Expecting to replicate success in "clutch" moments is a false hope, and the addition of Park should provide some added boost to an already blossoming lineup. The continued growth of top prospects like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will also be key for Minnesota to take the next step forward.
     
    Although the Twins didn't make the waves those in the AL Central did around them, they may also have been best positioned to trust some of their internal options. The lack of a few key moves could come back to haunt them, and especially so if the aggressive approach internally isn't followed through upon. As a whole, the organization stood pat, and while it may work, the risk is going to be needing a big push for a significant reward.
     
    Grade: C
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    When you have arguably Major League Baseball's best farm system, your bound to have an abundance of exciting young prospects. The Twins saw one of the best rookie classes in recent history embark upon Target Field during 2015, and there's still some big names yet to come. While Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, and Alex Meyer could all get significant time in 2016, there's another name that carries a whole level of mystery all his own. Enter Adam Brett Walker.
     
    Walker's name is one that has started to make its rounds into discussions involved with those not even completely involved with prospects. Having elevated himself into the conversation of top Twins farm talents, it's Walker's biggest strength that has him developing quite a following.
     
    A third round pick back in the 2012 MLB Draft from Jacksonville University, the 24 year old has spent exactly one season at every level thus far in his professional career. Having reached Double-A Chattanooga for the 2015 season, a stint with Triple-A Rochester appears to be his next stop. While progressing a level each year through the farm system, Walker has done two things consistently on a yearly basis. He hits home runs, and he strikes out.
     
    Thus far in his four year professional career, Walker's home run numbers by season have totaled 14, 27, 25, and 31. He's driven in more than 100 runs twice, and he's tallied 31 doubles that same amount of times. Just a career .254 hitter, he's bolstered his average by owning a .311 on-base percentage as well as compiling a .799 slugging percentage. By all of those measures, he looks to be cut of a similar cloth to slugging phenom Miguel Sano. Then there's the strikeouts.
     
    In his first four professional seasons, Adam Brett Walker has whiffed a total of 76, 115, 156, 195 times on a yearly basis. At one point during last season's torrid home run pace through Double-A, Walker was striking out more than five times as often as he was drawing a walk. The stark reality is that Walker remains the Twins most polarizing prospect. Although the power is likely the best in the organization, the detractors are also very real.
     
    To Walker's credit, he has continued to produce at each level he's been assigned. Although the strikeouts have increased incrementally, the power production, as well as extra base hits, have continued to remain present. Contrary to a solid contingent of strikeout prone hitters, Walker also keeps his on base percentage at a high enough level to be more than ok with.
     
    What makes Walker's situation difficult to project, is trying to pinpoint what he becomes at the next level. Two players immediately come to mind when talking about large home run totals with a ton of strikeouts: Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds. The comparison isn't a fair one though when considering the production at even levels.
     
    Through his first 327 minor league games, Walker had hit 69 homers while striking out an astronomical 372 times. In comparison, Adam Dunn launched 63 homers in 343 minor league games while striking out a significant amount less, just 270 times. Taking a look at plate discipline, Dunn also amassed 230 walks while whiffing 270 times in the minors. To date, Walker has struck out 542 times while drawing just a paltry 145 free bases.
     
    A better comparison to what the hope of Walker may be could potentially be no further than Minnesota's own organization, Oswaldo Arcia. Maybe more correctly put, a comparison to what Arcia was or is hoped to be. Once again however, the biggest detractor between the comparison comes down to strikeout rate. At the major league level, Arcia has struck out an above average 33% of the time. Conversely, Adam Brett Walker struck out 41% of the time at Double-A.
     
    Comparisons are a fickle thing, and Walker's case remains an interesting one. His defensive ability, namely his arm, leaves something to be desired and helps to only cast more light on his offensive prowess. With the ability to smash home runs into what seems to be another orbit, the Twins unlocking that ability at a usable clip remains the key. As Walker is transitioned to the next and final level of the farm in 2016, we will see how his journey continues.
     
    It's probably a good bet that we see Walker in the big leagues at some point in the coming year, likely as a September call up option. Now on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will give the best power prospect in the organization every chance to prove himself. The difference between being a minor league storyline and a potential big leaguer is still somewhere in a gray area, but one thing is for sure, Walker's narrative is far from over.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    We are quickly coming to a close on the month of January, and that can only mean one thing, pitchers and catchers begin to report to spring training soon. For the Twins many of those players will funnel down to Fort Myers following the conclusion of Twins Fest. With a handful of exciting non-roster invitees this season, Minnesota should have plenty of competition for the active roster. The question is, who makes it come Opening Day?
     
    We've taken a look at the lay of the land in the AL Central, and the Twins look poised to be right in the thick of things. How far they fluctuate up or down should have plenty to do with what contributions they get from new faces, and which cornerstones continue to produce. Much of the active roster appears to be a forgone conclusion, but there's a few cracks for players to force their way in.
    Here's how I expect the Twins to kick things off April 4th at Camden Yards:
     
    Rotation (5)
    Ervin Santana
    Phil Hughes
    Kyle Gibson
    Tyler Duffey
    Tommy Milone

    Santana and Hughes could no doubt flip-flop for the Opening Day starter role. Santana finished the year off on a hot streak, while Hughes is looking for a return to 2015 form in the year ahead. Regardless of who starts game one, the combination of those two will be looked upon to shoulder the load of holding down Minnesota's rotation.
     
    More than any other starter in 2016, I expect Kyle Gibson to take another big step forwards and expand upon what was a nice season a year ago. Tyler Duffey has shown he has the stuff to belong in the big leagues, and his sophomore season will be about continuing to make hitters miss despite a new level of familiarity.
     
    Rounding out the group is the lone lefty of the bunch, Tommy Milone. More than capable as a back-end starter, Milone as a 5th highlights the Twins rotational depth (something we haven't seen in recent years). Both Duffey and Milone will be pushed for continued success by the likes of capable arms on the farm such as Jose Berrios.
     
    Starting Lineup (9)
    Kurt Suzuki C
    Joe Mauer 1B
    Brian Dozier 2B
    Eduardo Escobar SS
    Trevor Plouffe 3B
    Miguel Sano LF
    Byron Buxton CF
    Eddie Rosario RF
    Byung Ho Park DH

    The infield remains unchanged from how it finished a season ago. Suzuki will rotate catching duties with John Ryan Murphy, but should get the first crack. Mauer remains at first while Brian Dozier looks to put together a complete season of All Star caliber play. With Trevor Plouffe remaining with the club, his bat and glove keep him at the hot corner.
     
    Patience paid off sticking with the lottery ticket acquired in exchange for Francisco Liriano. Eduardo Escobar was one of the best shortstops in the big leagues after settling in down the stretch, and while regression is probably due, he's more than a capable starter. Newly acquired slugger Byung Ho Park gets DH duties, and then we get to the outfield.
     
    Sano in left is going to be interesting considering the ground to cover. Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham have both been a warm body in the role previously, and there's some reason to believe the Sano experiment could work. He should be aided by the speed of both Buxton and Rosario to his left out in the grass.
     
    Bench (4)
    Danny Santana Util
    Oswaldo Arcia OF
    John Ryan Murphy C
    Eduardo Nunez Util

    A four man bench is filled out by two players the Twins are likely going to be forced to bring north (for better or worse). Santana actually projects well as a super utility type that could play both the infield and outfield, even if it's at a less than ideal clip. He should spell players around the diamond, and if he can hit, could find himself in the lineup 2-3 times a week. Arcia, like Santana, is also out of options, and the Twins are best served to give him every chance to succeed. Whether getting starts in the corner outfield, or as a bench bat, it's 2016 or bust for the Venezuelan slugger.
     
    Avoiding arbitration, the Twins agreed to a new one-year deal with Derek Jeter's former replacement, Nunez. He'll spell players on the left side of the infield, and we should also avoid seeing him in the outfield this season (thankfully). Monitor's bench candidates will be filled out by backup, and hopeful eventual starter, John Ryan Murphy. Looking to replace Suzuki in the near future, the Twins could flip flop the vet an Murphy relatively early on.
     
    Bullpen (7)
    Glen Perkins Cl
    Kevin Jepsen SU
    Trevor May SU
    Casey Fien
    Fernando Abad
    Ricky Nolasco
    Alex Meyer

    Despite having relief questions, there aren't any at the back-end of the Twins pen. Glen Perkins is looking to stay healthy for a full year, but he's coming off a third straight All Star trip. When he's healthy, he's among the best in the game. Bridging to him will be the likes of the Twins two other sure things in the pen, Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May.
     
    From there, things get more interesting. After avoiding arbitration with Casey Fien, Minnesota will reward the reliever for a strong finish to the 2015 season. He remains the only sure thing of this final group. Brought in on a minor league deal, Fernando Abad appears to have the inside track as the token lefty in relief. That leaves two spots, and one almost certainly to be claimed by the massive contract of Ricky Nolasco. Minnesota needs Nolasco to perform for anyone else to have interest in him, and doing so could prove value to the Twins as well.
     
    That leaves one opening, and it may come as somewhat of a surprise. While Michael Tonkin could claim the spot, I'm giving it to former top pitching prospect Alex Meyer. In relief to end the year, Meyer pitched extremely well and was deserving of a September call up. An immensely higher ceiling than other options, Meyer could go one to be one of the Twins best in relief. He's going to need to earn it in the spring, but I'd have a hard time betting against him.
     
    Just Missed
    Max Kepler
    Kennys Vargas
    Ryan Pressly
    Michael Tonkin
    J.R. Graham
    It would be fun to consider Jorge Polanco and Jose Berrios as just missed type players, but I think we'd be fooling ourselves. Whether Berrios deserves an Opening Day inclusion or not (he does), his exclusion isn't performance related whatsoever. For Polanco, missing 25 man shot comes down to being a man without a role. His bat is ready, but he can't field and he's stuck behind Dozier at this point.
     
    For the guys that may have had a shot, there's just a little knock on each of them. Kepler gets to feel the roster crunch, and will likely have to wait for Minnesota to sour on either Santana or Arcia first. He shouldn't be a 4th, and will likely get regular outfield starts when called upon. Kenny's Vargas finds himself in an opposite scenario, controlling his own destiny. Likely destined for a bench bat role, he absolutely has to hit. Not doing so last year hurt his chances, and he'll have to make noise with his bat to get back up.
     
    The trio of pitchers left off is a group of familiar names. Ryan Pressly has been very effective when healthy, but he's coming off an injury that saw him spend nearly all of the season on the DL. With a couple of other options, the Twins can afford to take it easy with him. For Tonkin, the decision to leave him off is a difficult one. He's out of options, and that very well could get him the job. He was sent up and down far too often last year, and it will depend on whether the Twins decide to stick with him for a fair amount of time or not. J.R. Graham rounds out the group after being a Rule 5 guy a season ago. he worked well when hidden, but was exposed far too often and could benefit from some more time on the farm.
     
    As the Twins get set to embark on Fort Myers, there's really not a whole lot of unsettled business. While guys at the top may feel comfortable, it's in relief that there seems to be the most contention to make waves. Who does so will be worth monitoring, and as always, there's that spring training surprise.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    We just a couple of months away from the Twins kicking off spring training action and even closer to pitchers and catchers reporting to sunny Fort Myers. For the Twins, much of the roster should already be decided, but there's a few cracks for someone to carve out playing time. It's down in Florida that we generally see those storylines play out.
     
    A season ago, it was Eddie Rosario who slugged two homers in 17 spring games that drove the conversation regarding him coming north. In 2014, Aaron Hicks turned 18 spring games into a .327/.364/.462 slash line that had him looking ready to assume the full time centerfield gig for the Twins. Heading into 2016, there's no doubt going to be "that guy" again, but the question is who.
     
    While you're beginning to put together some thoughts as to who that may be, let me offer some insight as to what the favorites may look like. Here's who has the best odds of being the talk of the Twins spring down in Fort Myers.
     
    Max Kepler 4/1:
     
    There's little doubt that Kepler has one of the best shots to impress at Twins camp. At different points this offseason, I've considered his potential to break camp with the big league club and immediately head north. I've addressed him first here as he's the lone member of this list that is not a non-roster invitee. Kepler's .318/.410/.520 slash line from 2015 is already impressive, and his debut at the end of the year suggests the Twins aren't going to hold him back. I expect a strong spring from the German prospect, but still see him starting the season on the farm.
     
    Nick Burdi 5/2:
     
    Right on Kepler's heels is 2014 Minnesota Twins draft pick Nick Burdi. Expected to be somewhat accelerated through the system, Burdi hit a bit of a speed bump last year. Despite the demotion, it's how he rebounded that has me believing 2016 is going to be a big year for the former Lousiville Cardinal. Burdi owned the Arizona Fall League, posting a 0.00 ERA across 8.0 innings and compiling a 12.4 K/9 while walking just 1.1 BB/9 (command being his biggest downfall thus far). The Twins pen is in need of help, and going up against the likes of Fernando Abad, Buddy Boshers, Brandon Kintzler, and a couple of others for a final pen spot, Burdi could actually push himself to the top of the group.
     
    Jake Reed 15/1:
     
    Tied to Burdi being from the same draft class, much of Reed's reasoning is similar to the aforementioned Burdi. He's a budding reliever in an organization whose major league pen needs significant help. Reed is not quite the hard thrower Burdi is, and his strikeout rates are lower (8.5 K/9 across two MiLB seasons). That said, Reed also dominated in the Arizona Fall League (1.69 ERA in 10.2 IP) which was nice to see. Coming off less of an injury history than J.T. Chargois (who I expect to debut with the Twins this season as well), Reed has the opportunity to turn some heads this spring.
     
    Jose Berrios 25/1:
     
    While no doubt a longshot, the odds being stacked against Berrios to break camp with the Twins aren't really any indication of his performance. At this point, and even at the end of last season, Berrios has accomplished all he can on the farm. he owned a 2.87 ERA and a 9.5 K/9 a year ago while walking batters at just a 2.1 BB/9 clip. He was actually better at Triple-A than Double-A, and the Twins could use need him in their rotation. Spring will be about forcing the Twins hand as to how early they promote him, even if that won't be Opening Day. He'll be kept down past the Super 2 deadline, and I'd guess Minnesota will have him up around May. Dominating this spring would be nice, but it's not going to get him the immediate call.
     
    Joe Benson 75/1:
     
    A familiar face makes his way back onto the scene for the Twins, and it's actually not as crazy of a thought as would seem. Minnesota brought back former top prospect Benson following a stint playing Indy Ball. Now 27 and having not played i nthe big leagues since 2011, Benson is looking at a monumental task to crack the 25 man roster. He hit a mediocre .248/.351/.361 at Double and Triple-A for the Mets and Braves organizations respectively. His time with the Sugar Land Skeeters was brief, and the numbers weren't thrilling there either. Working in Benson's favor is a projected outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano. Benson is a plus defender, and Shane Robinson is no longer with the organization to provide a defensive replacement type. Should Buxton not start with the Twins (he will), the path becomes even more realistic. I wouldn't bet on it, but a torrid spring and toss up roster decision, Benson could end up being the Twins 25th man.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    We're quickly gearing up for spring training and then eventually Opening Day of the 2016 Major League Baseball season. The AL Central is looking like it will be one of the most closely contested divisions in all of baseball. Home to the reigning World Series champs, and the Minnesota Twins, there's plenty of intrigue for Twins Territorians. What's interesting is the shift that the division is already watching take place.
     
    Going into 2016, the Kansas City Royals have to be considered the favorite to win the division. I have them tabbed for 86 wins and another pennant. Much of the team has remained the same from a year ago, and Ned Yost's club seems like they may have another run in them. That said, much like the Detroit Tigers, the Royals also seem to be toying with fate.
     
    After having some legitimate questions about the quality of their starting pitching, the Royals addressed the issue by signing Ian Kennedy to a five-year deal worth $70 million. Kennedy owned a 4.28 ERA and a 4.51 FIP. His 2015 was actually worse than unsigned free agent Yovani Gallardo, and essentially equal to former Twins pitcher Mike Pelfrey (who signed with the Tigers for two years and $16 million). Kennedy was the 4th place finisher in Cy Young voting during the 2011 season, and has been mediocre to bad since. For a Royals rotation that projects to have Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, and Kennedy as their top three, things could be much better.
     
    Therein lies part of the problem that the Royals are likely facing. Coming off of a World Series victory, Kansas City is looking to continue to capitalize on a window it forced open last season. With Eric Hosmer looking like an MVP type talent, and Mike Moustakas finally putting things together, the Royals are no doubt doubling down on that production. The unfortunate side to it is that the farm system offers little to no value when it comes to top tier talent, and the pitching in the system is either far off or questionable at best.
     
    Of course in a win now mode, the Royals are doing what they can to hide their deficiencies, but a move like Kennedy's seems more band aid than actual answer. Dayton Moore is trying to push a franchise used to losing into contention for a handful of years, and while the ultimate prize has been reached, the window shouldn't remain open too much longer.
     
    Similar to the Royals in direction, but maybe not so much in application, is the current trend of the Detroit Tigers. After finishing in the cellar of the AL Central a season ago, the Tigers again have decided to spend this offseason. Despite having no youth or farm system to speak of, Mike Ilitch has paid for the big league club to be competitive.
     
    Jordan Zimmerman was given a five-year, $110 million deal, and just recently Detroit followed that up by paying Justin Upton $132.75 million over the next six years. Both players are no doubt necessities for the Tigers, but they may not push them to the heights they had imagined.
     
    For Zimmerman, leaving the National League could pose problems. Although a very nice rotational piece, he is probably just shy of being referred to among the realm of true aces. On a Tigers staff that features an old Justin Verlander, oft-injured Anibal Sanchez, and little else however, Zimmerman is a must. With Upton, Detroit fills an obvious corner outfield void and gives them some pop that was vacated by the departure of Yoenis Cespedes.
     
    Looking at what Detroit is doing though, the fall could be an ugly and unfortunate one. While not a free agent, Miguel Cabrera's extension with the club kicks in during 2016. He now begins to make $240 million paid out over the next eight seasons. Albert Pujols was given that same number over ten years at the age of 30, and it was looked at somewhat hesitantly (and has ended up being less than ideal). Cabrera is entering his age 33 season, and has already started to succumb to injuries over the past year. While he remains one of the best hitters in the game when healthy, it will be his downfall that begins to spiral the Tigers out of control.
     
    The state of the Royals and Tigers depict a change in powers soon coming for the AL Central. The 2000's saw the division owned by the Minnesota Twins, and once again that should be an era we are close to revisiting. Cleveland has put together a nice pitching staff, and the White Sox are somewhere treading water in the middle, but it is only the Twins that have built an incredible farm system, along with some solid major league talent.
     
    Although the Twins are probably realistic candidates to take a step back during 2016, the next two to three years could see the AL Central flipped on its head once again. With the Royals taking over for a brief period of time, Minnesota actually looks like the team best positioned to compete at the top during the course of the foreseeable future. The waiting for prospects to develop, arrive, and contribute is starting to pay off, and Minnesota should continue to see that reality grow in the years to come.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    More often than any other area needing to be addressed by the Twins, it's starting pitching I have seen noted by national types. While Minnesota no doubt had a catching issue, and the bullpen remains largely unchanged from the ineffectiveness it showed a year ago, the belief is that the Twins need an ace. There's truth in the though, Minnesota is no doubt void of a frontline starter, but they probably don't need one either.
     
    This offseason, a lot has been made about how the Twins will round out their starting rotation. I've talked about it plenty here at Off The Baggy, and it would appear the Twins rotation is all but set. A Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey, Milone starting five doesn't have a headliner, but it also lacks glaring weaknesses as well. Looking around the AL Central, that actually may play to the benefit of the home nine.
     
    Not long ago, I took my annual look into what the AL Central will look like when the dust settles come September. While the Twins are likely headed for a minor step back, the argument could easily be made that they are the most likely squad to have the highest potential to swing within the division. If everything breaks right, the Twins could find themselves hanging a pennant, and conversely, could end up at the bottom significantly out of it if only a few key things go wrong.
     
    As things stand currently, the Twins look like a middle of the road AL Central team. Most realistically finishing third in the division, it's an interesting concept when comparing that to starting pitching. Of the AL Central opponents, there's only two starting rotations that would seem far and away better than Molitor's group.
     
    First, it's easy to call the Indians rotation the cream of the crop in the Central. While I'm nowhere near as high on them as many are, the talent is more than evident. Corey Kluber remains an ace, and even in a down year a season ago, he was lights out far more often than not. Carlos Carrasco remains a very strong second option, and has plenty of ace ability on his own. Eventually, the Indians are still hoping that Danny Salazar can click, and should he, the division would be worse off for it. Regardless whether it's Zach McAllister, Trevor Bauer, or TJ House Rounding out the final spots, Cleveland has strong pieces one through five.
     
    Then there's the Chicago White Sox, who are actually trending towards overtaking the Indians rotation in my opinion. Chris Sale is one of baseball's five or six best pitchers. Jose Quintana would be an ace for many other teams, and Carlos Rodon flashed plenty of excitement during his debut season. Robin Ventura's final two starters leave something to be desired, but there's little doubt the top three can go out and get you a win on any given day.
     
    When taking a look at the Royals rotation, it's more than clean to see why the Twins are in a better place. Now without Johnny Cueto, who actually was a negative outside of the playoffs, Kansas City looks putrid as a whole. Headlined by Yordano Ventura, who should rebound in the year ahead, a number two starter is either Edinson Volquez or Ian Kennedy. Recently signed for $70 million over the next five years, Kennedy is a far cry from the Cy Young competitor he was back in 2011.
     
    Likely worse than the likes of unsigned free agent Yovani Gallardo, and maybe more closely compared to former Twin Mike Pelfrey, Kennedy in the top three is quite the gamble. With the Royals rounding out the group relying upon the aging Chris Young and the likes of Jason Vargas or some other warm body, there's little reason to question why their bullpen has to be so good.
     
    For the Tigers, it's more patchwork than anything. Of course Jordan Zimmerman provides a very nice piece, but he hides what's a bigger issue. Justin Verlander hasn't been good for quite some time, and Anibal Sanchez hasn't been healthy for even longer. Relying on youth for the back end will be an interesting strategy as well. Detroit hasn't had an in house piece work for a while, and although their exciting youngsters aren't home grown, development will be worth watching.
     
    At the end of the day, if pitching is the most important aspect when it comes to winning, the Twins are in what can be considered far from a bad place. The Opening Day rotation won't bring fireworks, but having Jose Berrios waiting in the wings with some depth options at the top of the organization, Minnesota can feel comfortable going forward. For all the games Minnesota pitching may not win them, there should be plenty more often than not that the day's hurler gives the lineup a chance.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Twins coming off one of the most impressive seasons in the past four years, the AL Central division has been given a boost from top to bottom. The Kansas City Royals are the defending World Series champs, and the middle of the pack has taken steps forward as well. In 2016, the division once again projects to be tightly contested, and maybe even more so than in 2015.
     
    A season ago, I released the AL Central Division Preview in March, this year we're doing it a bit earlier. Prior to spring training, injuries have yet to take their toll, and suspensions (ahem Ervin Santana) have not been handed out. What has happened however is the free agency dust has begun to settle. Many of the big names have found their new homes, and barring some unforeseen moves, teams are beginning to look forward.
     
    While meaningful baseball is still a few months off, pitchers and catchers report to their respective spring training sites in short order. As position battles take place, and teams gear up for the season, here's how I see the AL Central finishing up this fall:
     
    Kansas City Royals 86-76
     
    After winning the World Series, the Royals will have the target on their backs in 2016 and get everyone's best shot. While they have some significant issues in the rotation, it's fair to argue they did for much of 2015 as well. I think the loss of Greg Holland is mitigated by the addition of Joakim Soria. That bullpen is for real, and even if Wade Davis isn't the 2015 version (he won't be) he still incredibly good.
     
    I'm not worried about the regression of guys like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. I think they've entered their prime and 2015 is more a sign of things to come than what once was. Getting Alex Gordon back was huge, and the emergence of prospects makes for interesting supplements. I have a hard time believing Yordano Ventura won't rebound, and Kyle Zimmer is an intriguing option that shouldn't be too far away. Until further notice, the Central should remain the Royals division.
     
    Cleveland Indians 84-78
     
    A season ago, Cleveland finished a single game above .500 at 81-80. That record ended up being odd for a multitude of reasons. Despite being the reigning Cy Young Award winner, Corey Kluber was awful as April turned to May (posting a 7.43 ERA from Apr 22-May 7). He finished with good-not-great numbers on the season though, and was backed by the emerging Carlos Carrasco. The Indians got just 99 games of Francisco Lindor, who arguably became their best player. There's also the fact that they had a plus 29 run differential, despite winning just one more game than they lost.
     
    Many picked the Indians as a darkhorse World Series candidate a season ago. I don't see them being that good in 2016 either, but they've definitely got the pieces to contend in the jumbled AL Central. I'm not as high on the staff as others, and I think they've got some outfield questions, but they're the team I feel least comfortable projecting.
     
    Minnesota Twins 81-81
     
    Last season, the Twins burst onto the scene and made a playoff push despite no one picking them to do anything but finish at the bottom of the division. With an 83 win season, Minnesota trailed only the Royals in the Central. Unfortunately for Minnesota, much of it was based upon situational excellence. With a minus four run differential and inflated numbers with runners in scoring position, the Twins generated a large amount of clutch runs.
     
    This season, Molitor's squad will be looking for more consistency. The Twins aren't going to do anything at an exceptional level, but they have the opportunity to be good enough across the board. Pitching depth is there, even if top tier quality is not. For the club to challenge for the division and playoffs once again, Byron Buxton will need to emerge, Miguel Sano continue his growth, and Byung Ho Park be as good as billed. More than any other Central team in 2016, the Twins have the pieces to win the division just as much as they do to lose it miserably.
     
    Chicago White Sox 79-83
     
    Much like the Indians, the White Sox will go as their pitching does this season. They scored a division worst 3.84 runs per game a season ago, and the offense hasn't exactly been transformed. Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, and Jose Quintana are legit starters. They have back end of the rotation and bullpen questions however. Offensively, the addition of Todd Frazier is nice, but I expect some of his numbers to decline. They still need another outfielder, and with Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes on the market, targeting one would be a good idea.
     
    For the South Siders, spending hasn't often equated to wins. Now with a revamped infield bringing in both Frazier and Brett Lawrie, Robin Ventura's squad will once again have a new feel to it. If they can make one more big splash, pushing towards the top of the division isn't out of the question. Without that though, they look like a very middle-of-the-road type club.
     
    Detroit Tigers 77-85
     
    Somewhat unsurprisingly, the Tigers finished at the bottom of the AL Central a season ago. I expect them to be better in the year ahead, but their positioning shouldn't change. The roster is getting older, and the farm system really isn't any good. Signing Jordan Zimmerman was as much a necessary move as it was a nice deal, but asking him to be an ace could be a bit much. Justin Verlander isn't what he once was, Anibal Sanchez is a walking injury, and youth resides after that.
     
    The bullpen has been the Achilles Heel of the Tigers for what it seems like years. Francisco Rodriguez should help, but he's not going to cure the issue completely. J.D. Martinez is a great success story, but he's also almost exclusively what is going right for Detroit in the outfield. An again Cameron Maybin, and young Steven Moya are likely going to be relied upon more than they should be. Detroit probably isn't going to be bad, but Brad Ausmus is going to squeeze what he can out of his squad wherever he can.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the offseason, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made quick work of releasing the information that Miguel Sano was going to try and make a transition to the outfield. The exciting slugger needed to make room for Byung Ho Park, and playing right field was how the Twins were going to handle that. The notion was met with skepticism and an almost guaranteed thought that in the end, Trevor Plouffe would be dealt from the Twins.
     
    In the end though, Plouffe has stayed put, and it creates a best possible scenario for the Twins.
     
    Although Sano is entering uncharted territory in the outfield, there's reason to believe that it could work. What's more important though, is exactly how much Plouffe means to Minnesota. For Molitor's squad, there was no logical return that was going to bring back what Plouffe meant to the lineup. Most importantly is that the production Plouffe brings may be under appreciated.
     
    A season ago, Trevor Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Twins, down from a 3.6 fWAR in 2014. Unfortunately for those stuck on projections, Steamer sees just a 1.6 fWAR for the Twins third basemen in 2016. It really depends on what Plouffe is able to play throughout the entirety of the season however.
     
    In a handful of categories, Plouffe set new records for himself a year ago. He played in a career high 152 games, scored 74 runs, picked up 140 hits, tripled four times, homered 22 times, drove in 86 runs, and looked every bit the part of one of the best third basemen in baseball. The problem is that Plouffe's season was a tale of two parts.
     
    From Opening Day until the end of July, Plouffe slashed a respectable .257/.316/.456 as well as clubbing 14 of his homers and driving in 55 of his runs. Of his 35 doubles on the season, 24 of them came before August, then things changed. From August 1st through the end of the season, Plouffe slashed an ugly .223/.294/.398. He homered just eight more times, and he struck out 53 times in 56 starts. The momentum from the better part of the season had fallen off of a cliff.
     
    So why does it matter that Plouffe is still in the middle of the Twins lineup? Because for a team that will rely on offense, the California product has shown he can be a catalyst for it. When called upon to handle the load as the cleanup hitter, Plouffe went through issue. In 68 starts from the four-hole, he slashed just .223/.284/.400, launching eight of his homers. At his best, hitting from the five-spot in the lineup, Plouffe slashed .274/.332/.489 with 11 of his homers.
     
    Dropping in the lineup behind the likes of 2016 power hitters, Sano and Park, Plouffe is given an opportunity to see pitches in a more ideal situation. Allowing Plouffe to hit in a lesser lineup role in the year ahead could foster the same type of early season production the Twins saw from their third basemen, but allow them to benefit for an entire 162.
     
    At the end of the day, Plouffe wasn't going to net the Twins much more than a relief arm. Considering the benefit to the lineup as one of their best hitters, keeping him and pairing his bat with the likes of Sano, Park, and Brian Dozier should help the Twins to create offensive opportunities in an abundant fashion.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    With the winter months consuming the calendar at the present time, one of the highlights of the offseason has been the Hall of Fame voting. With Ken Griffey Jr. being a guaranteed lock heading into the reveal (even despite three clueless voters), it was a question of who would join him during enshrinement in Cooperstown this summer. After the dust settled, we now know that honor will go to none other than Mike Piazza.
     
    For the Twins, the ballot was void of any Minnesota presence. In upcoming years, the most closely tied name will be that of Jim Thome's. While he won't go in as a member of the Twins, he provided plenty a bright spot in Twins Territory as he rounded out his career. It's not Thome though that is the next most likely Twins player to gain enshrinement.
     
    For Minnesota, an opportunity may be presented when Torii Hunter is first eligible. It's almost guaranteed he will be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame, but despite the potential to reach Cooperstown, he should fall short. Hunter has a better resume than that of Jim Edmonds, but it's not 70% better, which is more than what will be needed to reach enshrinement. Edmonds fell off the ballot after missing out on the needed 5% this year, Hunter will likely do better. Regardless, don't expect him to break the Twins drought.
     
    No, instead that honor could most likely go to a player that is still a member of the Twins. 32 year-old Joe Mauer is the Minnesota Twins next most likely candidate for Hall of Fame consideration. Had he not been dealt the injury hand he was, and still was behind the plate, I'd feel good about forecasting him as a first-ballot type player. As things stand currently, he presents a very strong case with a few more years left to push the needle one way or another.
     
    At this point of time, Hall of Fame voting principles don't seem to rely heavily on the golden numbers. While 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, and other milestones seemingly should guarantee induction, other factors such as character and performance enhancers have muddled the waters. For Mauer though, those numbers will be left out of consideration entirely.
     
    Sitting currently at just under 1,700 hits for his career with just over 115 home runs, Mauer's case for the Hall will be built on some different principles. As a catcher, Mauer garnered four All Star appearances, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, and four Silver Slugger titles. He was arguably the best in the game, at one of its most demanding positions for the first seven years of his big league career.
     
    Following concussion issues, Mauer's game has transformed. He's become a relative shell of the hitter he once was, and had to adapt to playing an entirely new position. Despite the downturn in production, Mauer still owns a career .313/.394/.451 slash line and can claim three batting titles to his credit.
     
    Most importantly for Mauer's prospects regarding the Hall of Fame, is how the story ends up being written. As the 2016 season kicks off, Mauer will be 33 years old. Under contract for the Twins until 2018, there's probably at least another 400 plus hits in his bat, and production that could be boosted by some lineup changes.
     
    Should Mauer trend back towards what he once was at least as an average and contact hitter, he should be seen favorably in the eyes of voters. If the trend of a dipping average combined with mediocre peripheral numbers continues, Mauer's longevity could actually hurt him down the stretch. Hanging on and compiling stats while diluting and distancing from the catching days likely won't do him many favors.
     
    At the end of his career, Joe Mauer is not going to be Mike Piazza. He could (and likely should) surpass the 2,127 hits of the Mets backstop. Mauer probably will lay claim to a better average and on-base percentage. He's going to have the MVP and batting titles to his credit, and his Gold Gloves should make a difference. He isn't the power hitter the position is expected to be though, and the tumultuous injuries that have changed the course of his career will be held against him
     
    Sometime within the next ten to twelve years, Joe Mauer is going to get his turn on the Hall of Fame ballot. He's not a lock the first time around, but expecting him to come up with 75% of the vote through the first half of his voting eligibility is far from a fool's proposition.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently, Fangraphs released their yearly ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins. As with most years, the results weren't incredibly favorable. On the offensive side of things, the projections see Minnesota hitters in a relatively good light, it's the pitching where the most is left to be desired. There's one player though that provides a pretty big potential cause for concern.
     
    Enter Brian Dozier.
     
    On the surface, things aren't all that bad for Dozier. Projections have him as a repeat 3.0+ fWAR player with over 20 homers and 30 plus doubles. From a statistical standpoint, that would once again put the Twins second basemen among the best in the big leagues at the position. It's never really been about what Dozier has done though that is the concern. Instead, it's what may come, and when.
     
    If there's something that stuck out to me more than anything in the ZiPS projections provided by Fangraphs, it goes well beyond any statistical numbers. Comparisons are a fickle science (and they really aren't a science at all), but the name next to Brian Dozier's made me pause. Dan Uggla.
     
    Unfortunately, it isn't 2010. If it were, we'd be talking about the .287/.369/.508 slash line Uggla. The Florida Marlins (that's right not Miami) second basemen that launched 33 homers and drove in 105 runs. No, it's not 2010 though. Instead, this Dan Uggla is the guy who hasn't sniffed the Mendoza Line since 2013. He hasn't hit more than 10 doubles in a season since 2012, and a 16 home run output a season ago was about the only thing that's gone right for a guy who's bounced between three teams in two seasons.
     
    So what does that have to do with Dozier? Fangraphs still sees the Twins second basemen contributing a .244/.318/.437 slash line. He's still projected to be one of the best players in the Twins lineup. Heck, Dozier is coming off of his first season an an All-Star. Again, it's probably not as much about what is, as what's potentially to come from the Mississippi product.
     
    A season ago, Fangraphs wrote about the concerns for Brian Dozier as a hitter. He's consistently been a dead-pull guy at the plate, and barring adjustments, he's struggled for periods relying on fastballs. That may have not been any more prominent of a narrative than it was a season ago.
     
    In 2015, Dozier pulled a ridiculous 60.2% of balls he put in play. using the opposite field 19.7% of the time during his career, his 15.6% in 2015 was a new low. What Dozier did do a season ago was strike the ball more effectively, generating "hard" contract 29% of the time. Regardless of what his efforts generated, Dozier experienced a different approach by opposing pitchers for the first time in his career.
     
    After seeing less than 60% of pitches be fastballs for the first time in 2014, pitchers threw Dozier a career low 53.2% pitches of that variety. He was also dealt a career high 11.3% of pitches registering as changeups. A significant shift in philosophy when it comes to getting Dozier out, pitchers saw what could be the beginning of a concerning trend for the Twins All-Star second basemen.
     
    Having made some adjustments, but undoubtedly going through growing pains, Dozier struggled. For the second season in a row, he faded down the stretch, but it's the final numbers that may be the most concerning. Being pitched differently, Dozier owned a 21.0% strikeout rate, the highest of his career, and a 4% jump from where he was during his debut season of 2012. As expected with the increased strikeout rate, Dozier whiffed a career high 148 times, and set a new Twins record (don't worry, Miguel Sano will likely break it in 2016). In and of itself, that's an issue. Combined with the fact that Dozier walked just 61 times, generating an 8.7% walk rate (a nearly 4% drop from 2014), it was a less than perfect storm.
     
    Steamer projections actually see Dozier producing a better average and on-base percentage in the year ahead, albeit with decreased power totals, but he'll be entering his age 29 season. Five years in the big leagues under his belt, it's fair to assume there's one or two more worth of solid production in him. What's unfortunate is that leaves the Twins with a question in 2018.
     
    A season ago, Minnesota inked Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. It's a low risk deal that bought out arbitration years from the Twins best player. Should things play out as they are trending however, Minnesota may be looking at needing to re-up with a player that has exhausted what capable production, and going forward is exactly as predicted.
     
    For now, the toughest part of the equation is what to do with the prospect waiting in the wings, Jorge Polanco. No doubt not a shortstop (seriously look at those numbers), Polanco is a major league ready bat that could be counted on at second base. The Twins don't have room for him, and asking him to bide his time for two more years could stunt development. As a trade chip, there's no doubt positive there, but that also leaves the Twins exposed in regards to Dozier's situation.
     
    In short, Brian Dozier is going to remain a productive member of the Twins (and arguably one of the team's best players) for at least the next year. What could happen beyond that point is a scary downturn that the Atlanta Braves know about all too well. Dozier has had the deck stacked against him before, but unless pitches continue to come in high and tight, adjust to the slow paced, corner dusting changeup is going to need to be his next feat.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    As with every offseason, baseball writers and analysts are often observed filling the void by looking at numbers and what may be coming. We pour over prospect lists, and hope that each major league teams shining stars of tomorrow turn out to be just as good as expected. With all of those feelings though, comes that ugly and sometimes less than ideal word: projections.
     
    For the Twins, projections do not often see the organization favorably. Obviously there's a handful of factors that contribute to that reality, but some of the most glaring are a seemingly consistent effort to repeat the same processes, whether they work or not. This year, as Fangraphs has introduced their yearly ZiPS projections, nothing is different. There's some good, some bad, and some downright distubring.
     
    Looking from a place of positivity, let's start with the good. No one seems to have any sort of clue what to do with Jose Berrios. For me, he's an elite level talent, and has top of the rotation type stuff. I rated him my second best Twins prospect behind only Byron Buxton. He's made a professional career of silencing doubters, and there's no reason to believe that will stop now.
     
    ZiPS sees Berrios getting a relatively early call to the bigs (as do I). In 146+ innings, he's projected to strike out 130 batters. That number is also projected to be the highest strikeout total among any Twins pitcher. Keith Law, who's been one of Berrios' biggest skeptics, routinely has questioned whether he'll keep the ball in the yard. He allowed a career high 12 long balls last season, and Fangraphs projections see him surrendering 17 in his first major league season.
     
    Although the peripherals aren't projected to be overwhelming (just a 4.18 ERA and 3.82 FIP) it's the comparison that presents a standout point for Berrios. ZiPS notes St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright as Berrios' number one comp. If that ends up being anything near truth, the Twins would have a very legitimate ace at their disposal.
     
    From there, things get somewhat less exciting. Looking at the starting lineup, only two players are projected to post an fWAR above 3.0. Last season, Brian Dozier was the only member in that category. With Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton being tabbed to eclipse that total this season, Dozier, Plouffe, and a host of other Twins are expected to regress.
     
    Generally the case with most projections, Twins pitching isn't seen favorably either. The starting staff is more mediocre than anything. No one pitcher is expected to post a sub 4.00 ERA though the highest starting ERA is respectable at a 4.62 mark given to Tommy Milone. Essentially, the Twins will have to win games with their offense this year, something that is to be expected with a pitching staff composed of more quantity and depth than it is of quantity.
     
    The bullpen isn't given great marks either, but as I have discussed multiple times, I don't believe it will remain in tact for long. Some of the Twins biggest assets are their relief prospects, and they could be some of the most important additions to the big league club in the year ahead. Getting Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois up and contributing sooner rather than later should win Minnesota some games.
     
    Rounding out the yearly ZiPS numbers is a handful of concerning comparisons. First, there's that of Brian Dozier. His comparison is none other than Dan Uggla. The guy that couldn't presently hit himself out of a paper bag, and has not hit above the Mendoza Line since 2012.
     
    While I'd like to discredit the possibility of Dozier turning into Uggla, there's a lot of similarities. Like Uggla, Dozier was a late bloomer, making his debut at age 25 (one year ahead of Uggla). Uggla at his best was a better power hitter than Dozier (30+ HR 07-11), while both striking out and walking at a higher rate. The problem is that Uggla fell off in 2013 slashing .179/.309/.362 despite still hitting 22 homers. Dozier is a dead pull hitter, and can be exploited on the outside edge of the plate.
     
    Should that decline happen this season for the Twins second basemen, it would shock me. He's still relatively young, and would be expected to produce for at least another year or two. As he gets into his thirties though, see Dozier's decline be fast and steep like Uggla's would not be a shock, and may be one of the best reasons for the Twins to keep Jorge Polanco around.
     
    The other player that provides some cause for concern is top prospect Byron Buxton. ZiPS names Lastings Milledge as Buxton's number one comp. The 12th overall pick in the 2003 MLB Draft, Milledge went on to own just a .269/.328/.395 career slash line in six big league seasons. He never came close to what was projected of him, and has been out of baseball since 2011 (when he was still just 26 years-old).
     
    Expecting Buxton to fizzle out is a fool's errand, but there's no doubt 2016 is vitally important for him. After a largely unimpressive debut season, Buxton needs to stay healthy, and flash the tools that have gotten him to this point. Hitting for average, some power, flashing speed, and playing great defense need to all become widely apparent for the Twins centerfielder. He'll enter the year as baseball's top prospect, and he should. The time for delays on breaking out though have passed.
     
    Projections, no matter how numbers based, are far from the gold standard. The Twins outdid everything externally expected of them a season ago, but for that to continue, they will once again need to defy what is tabbed as the norm. They are going to need youth to step up in a big way, and they are going to need to promote aggressively getting internal contributions.
     
    We're a ways off from meaningful baseball being played, but as was also the case in 2015, the Twins must hope there's more incorrect than not when it comes to the ZiPS numbers Fangraphs revealed.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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