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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    Back in October, I wrote about the Twins and their seven players headed to the Arizona Fall League. The focus was on what each of them needed to improve or work on over the next two months, and how they could end 2015 on a high note. Over the weekend, each of them became Arizona Fall League champs, and it was because of their success that the title was claimed.
     
    As I tweeted out over the weekend, baseball is no doubt a team sport, however it was the Twins group that carried this team during the title game. Taylor Rogers got the start and went 3.0 scoreless, striking out two and picking up the win. Adam Brett Walker drove in three of Scottsdale's six runs, and the game was closed out by both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. To put it mildly, the Twins stars shined over the weekend.
     
    Looking back at the Fall League as a whole, the majority of the Twins prospects did themselves some considerable favors. Starting with the two guys who have now won back-to-back AFL titles, Rogers and Reed, 2016 is shaping up to be a great year.
     
    Rogers was second in the Twins minors leagues in innings pitched this past year. He's a lefty who has good command and looked impressive for most of the Triple-A season. He established himself as Scottsdale's ace in the AFL and his 2.88 ERA and 21 strikeouts across six starts was a very good way to end the year. He may begin the season with Rochester, but he's a definite bet to contribute for the Twins in the year ahead, likely out of the bullpen.
     
    After an impressive showing a season ago, Reed improved in his second AFL stint. Pitching in 10 games, the former Oregon Duck surrendered zero earned runs. He threw 10.2 IP giving up just six hits while striking out ten and walking just four. If the Twins are going to improve their bullpen in 2016, giving Reed a shot at some point would seem to be a good idea.
     
    Staying with the bullpen, Nick Burdi was equally impressive in the Fall League. He gave up his lone run on a solo homer in the title game, but was lights out otherwise. Burdi was an inclusion in the Fall Stars game, and his command was impeccable owning an 11/1 K/BB ratio across 8.0 IP. Trevor Hildenberger also did some really nice work in relief this fall. His 12.2 IP were second highest for Scottsdale in relief. He owned a 2.13 ERA and struck out 12 while walking none. Although he played at Fort Myers a season ago, the strong showing against superior talent bodes well for his 2016 trajectory.
     
    Then there's the offensive side of things. Starting anywhere but with Adam Brett Walker would be misguided. His Fall was very similar to the rest of his 2015, very mixed. While he was also the hero in the title game, it was his strikeout numbers that continue to cause reason for pause. His final slash line rested at .240/.326/.493 with five homers and 18 RBI. The issue though is that the strikeout week actually got worse. In Double-A this year, Walker averaged 1.65 K per hit, 1.47 per game, and 6.29 per home run. In AFL action, he averaged 1.94 per hit, 1.75 per game, and 7.0 per home run. Those numbers are going to determine whether or not he can contribute at the next level.
     
    It's almost a certainty that Walker starts 2016 at Triple-A, and as a top 10 Twins prospect, Minnesota wants to see him succeed. However, he is not going to be a viable contributor at the big league level based on power alone. He's well behind the likes of Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds, or Adam Dunn in their minor league careers. In the year ahead, it's about making more contact, working on plate discipline, and reducing the ugly strikeout numbers.
     
    Rounding out the offensive grouping for the Twins in the fall are two catchers who had vastly different results. Stuart Turner continued along the path of being a defensive guru who can't hit. He slashed a Scottsdale worst .171/.306/.220 and totaled just two extra base hits in 12 games. The Twins still have significant reason to hold out hope (lack of catching depth being one of them), but Turner needs to hit in the year ahead.
     
    On the other hand, Mitch Garver shunned his regular season numbers by having an impressive fall campaign. The backstop slashed .317/.404/.512 across 12 games and cranked out five doubles and a homer. He handled the bat well in 2014 before taking a step backwards this past year. If the fall production can carry over into 2016, Garver could vault himself up the ladder and into the Twins plans sooner rather than later.
     
    As a whole, the Twins deep farm system was extremely impressive during action down in Arizona. It was pitching that owned the season, but the group set itself apart. Knowing that the big league club is getting ready to turn the corner, a couple of these contributors should be expected to be front and center in the revolution.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Earlier this week, the Rookie of the Year awards were unveiled. In the IBWAA balloting, Carlos Correa picked up the AL honors. However, it was Miguel Sano who finished in 3rd place with 172 points and seven first place votes. Looking at the BBWAA balloting, Sano once again finished third with teammate Eddie Rosario coming in 6th. An impressive finish for the two however, is merely a foreshadowing of what is to come.
     
    The last Minnesota Twins player to win Rookie of the Year honors was Marty Cordova. That honor was bestowed well over a decade ago, back in 1995. Looking ahead to 2016 however, it's probably fair to argue that the home team has the deck stacked in their favor.
     
    First and foremost, the odds on favorite, Byron Buxton. Retaining his rookie status by a single at bat (Buxton compiled 129 of the 130 needed ABs to exceed rookie status in 2015), baseball's top prospect enters 2016 still under the rookie and prospect designation. Having played in 46 games during a playoff driven 2015 season, the Twins youngster has a handful of experience under his belt.
     
    Although Buxton struggled to the tune of a .209/.250/.326 line in his first tour of the big leagues, brighter horizons lie ahead. Forget the Mike Trout first-to-second-year comparisons, Buxton has done plenty on his own. He's the owner of a .301/.383/.489 minor league line, and he recorded a hit in all 13 of his Triple-A games during 2015 (accumulating a .400/.441/.545 line). With an offseason to prepare, the offensive expectations for the Twins superstar should be through the roof for the season ahead.
     
    On the off chance that Buxton doesn't quite do enough to nab Rookie of the Year honors though, the rest of the possibilities are equally as impressive. Considering the Twins have at least three more players that should be considered for the award, the emerging presence of this team is no doubt going to be felt.
     
    Staying in the outfield, Max Kepler is a name that likely will be on many watch lists. Despite not having the same top tier pedigree as Buxton, Kepler has impressed nearly everywhere he's been (when healthy). He was healthy in 2015, and went on to win the Southern League MVP while leading the Chattanooga Lookouts to a Double-A Championship. Kepler slashed .322/.416/.531 while ripping 13 triples and launching nine homers. He's got an outside shot to start the year in the big leagues, and he should contribute when he gets there.
     
    Then there's the overseas addition (or expected one). Minnesota has not yet agreed to a contract with Byung-Ho Park, but belief is that a deal gets done. The Korean Baseball Organization superstar should fill in as the Twins everyday DH. His 53 home runs in the KBO are going to come down a bit in the big leagues, but this guy is a star. After seeing Jung-Ho Kang struggle, then got hot, and eventually finish third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting this past season, Park's expectations are through the roof. He's a superior talent, and at 29, should be right in the middle of his prime to show it off.
     
    Rounding out the group, a step onto the mound is made. If Kepler dominated minor league pitching, Jose Berrios laid waste to hitters through the minors. Across two levels a season ago, Berrios owned a 3.03 ERA and compiled a 2.85 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts. His 9.5 K/9 has blown away hitters, and while walking just 2.1/9, Berrios has proved incredibly tough to beat. Despite the Twins pitching depth, Berrios should be mentioned amongst the highest tier, and he should be expected to show that off at the MLB level relatively early.
     
    Regardless of the fact that, as with many awards, the Rookie of the Year is an individual honor, this list alone highlights a great thing for the Twins. Coming off an 83 win season, Minnesota is in position to add at least four players to the big league roster, that could be among the best in the game for their age. The organization is in position to turn the corner in a big way, and the aforementioned parties should be front and center in that revival.
     
    When it comes to the 2016 Rookie of the Year award, it may not be addressed to Byron Buxton, but Minnesota has a pretty good shot of it being delivered to 1 Twins Way.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    The deadline for the Minnesota Twins to add players eligible for the Rule 5 draft to their 40 man roster has come and gone. Going into Friday. Minnesota had a 40 man roster with seven openings, and ending the day, there are just two. With some expected, and some unexpected names, the regular season 25 man is becoming more clear.
     
    First off, those players added today include J.T. Chargois, Yorman Landa, Pat Dean, Mason Melotakis, Taylor Rogers, Randy Rosario, and Adam Brett Walker. Among the grouping, it was always expected that Chargois, Rogers, and Walker would get the inclusion. The rest of the additions provided a bit further intrigue.
     
    Rounding out the top four, Pat Dean had to be the obvious name. The lefty rebounded well in 2015, and threw to the tune of a 2.82 ERA with Triple-A Rochester. Considering his left-handedness, and his impressive showing at the highest minor league level, it stands to reason he would have been a Rule 5 draft pick of another organization.
     
    The inclusion of Melotakis is an upside play. Despite coming off of Tommy John surgery, he has the ability to push near triple digits when healthy. He's going to be back in 2016 at some point, and could be a bullpen option down the road. Landa, a Venezuelan, should appear for Fort Myers in the year ahead. He looked good at Cedar Rapids this past season, and while he may be a long shot for a big league team to hide in 2016, his long term upside was one the Twins felt worth protecting. That leaves just Rosario. He's probably the most surprising inclusion given his current status. He's not among the Twins top 30 prospects, and despite upper 90's and being a lefty, losing him wouldn't be terrible.
     
    Looking at the roster moves from the other side, there's some pretty obvious surprises as to who was left off. Starting with former first round picks, the Twins have left Levi Michael, Luke Bard, Travis Harrison, and Alex Wimmers are susceptible to being drafted. Of those, really only Michael should be expected to go. He turned in a decent-enough season last year with Double-A Chattanooga, and has the makings of a utility type at the next level.
     
    Arguably the most egregious snubs outside of Michael may come from another level or two down. Both Felix Jorge and Zack Jones are guys that I'd believe a handful of other organizations could use. Asking Jorge to jump from Low-A Cedar Rapids to the big leagues is a tough ask, but his 2015 should some impressive signs for his future. While Jones was demoted to Fort Myers during 2015, he started strong at Double-A, and finished strong playing High-A ball. A power arm out of the pen can play, and Jones has absolutely that.
     
    The Rule 5 draft a season ago saw the Twins select J.R. Graham from the Atlanta Braves. He gave the club 63.2 IP with a 4.95 ERA and totaled one of the best strikeouts ratios in the Twins pen at 7.5 K/9. The club lost Sean Gilmartin to the Mets, and he went on to be a World Series roster inclusion.
     
    For the upcoming Rule 5 draft, I'd have to expect that the Twins would lose at least one of the aforementioned players. With a deep farm system, it's hard to protect all of your assets, and the organization is no doubt well aware of that. With the roster currently at 38 players, Minnesota has room for some movement yet. Obviously, Byung-Ho Park will be taking one of those spots, but the other could be a Rule-5 pick of their own, or a potential free agent signing.
     
    Also on the day, Minnesota lost both Josmil Pinto and A.J. Achter on waivers. Pinto was expected to win the backup catcher job, but concussions stalled his year before it got started. In going to the Padres, one has to wonder whether he wasn't a San Diego target for quite some time as the Twins had documented trade discussions with the NL club. Achter was a 46th round pick and little more than a depth arm. He got into 11 games for the Twins a season ago, and heads to the Phillies.
     
    With the Hot Stove season heating up, the Twins are going to be well worth monitoring in the weeks ahead.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins have already shown an indication that they are in fact looking to improve upon what was a breakout season in 2015. In making a couple of trades, while also securing the winning big for Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park, Paul Molitor's squad is trending in the right direction. Amidst the moves though, there's two players that have seemingly been cast aside.
     
    Enter Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas.
     
    In 2013, Arcia made his big league debut as a 22 year-old. The Venezuelan born outfielder was regarded as a power bat, with the ability to take up space in left. After a 97 game debut season that saw him slash ..251/.304/.430 with 14 homers, Arcia has taken somewhat of a nose dive. Although the home run total rose in 2014 (20 HR), the splits dipped (.231/.300/.452). On top of poor defensive showings, Arcia entered 2015 with a whole lot to prove.
     
    After being given just 19 games at the big league level, the Twins sent Arcia packing and made him aware and extended stay on the farm was in order. An average beginning to his Triple-A stay was followed by an impressive power display. From July 1-16, Arcia launched eight home runs and 19 RBI while slashing .367/.446/.918. The problem however, is that was the end of the positives. When the dust settled, 79 games at Triple-A saw Arcia bat just .199/.257/.372 while striking out 82 times and drawing just 18 walks.
     
    For Kennys Vargas, the path saw what amounted to significantly muted lows, but also much less significant highs. Oddly, after a hot start to the month of May (.366/.395/.561 from May 1-17), Minnesota asked Vargas to go down and find his power stroke. In his first 29 games with the big league club last season, he hit just three home runs. From that point on, Vargas watched as his season was filled with travels.
     
    Initially, he was sent to Triple-A Rochester, then recalled to the big leagues. Next he was demoted two levels to Double-A Chattanooga, before finally earning a late season promotion back up the ladder. In total, Vargas hit .283/.414/.496 between two minor league levels, and owned a .240/.277/.349 MLB slash line. With 18 home runs on the year between all three levels, the power wasn't as expected.
     
    Heading into 2016, both Arcia and Vargas find themselves in less than ideal situations. For Arcia, he's battling against not only the perception that he took significant steps backwards a season ago, but also that he's up against a 40 man roster crunch (Arcia enters 2016 out of options). Vargas on the other hand, didn't quite do enough to suggest he's ready to contribute, and now Park could be taking away more of his opportunity.
     
    As far as projections are concerned as both players rose through the farm system, Vargas seemed much more along the lines of the suspect bat between the two. However, given Arcia's defensive chops, I always pegged both as being potential bench bats as a middle-of-the-road scenario. Now, it's fair to question whether either have a place with the Twins at all.
     
    There has been discussions that the Twins may look to allow Vargas an opportunity to rebuild his value in playing overseas. While I'd question whether this scenario makes sense for either party, Vargas appears most likely to be on the outs at this point. With Arcia, the trade of Aaron Hicks couldn't have come at a more opportune time. In no way does it open a door wide to playing time, but it gives Arcia much more ample opportunity.
     
    No doubt there is plenty of offseason left, and the Opening Day roster situation is a long way from sorted out. Ideally, Terry Ryan is finding out what the trade market looks like for both Arcia and Vargas. In the end, I'd lean towards keeping both in the organization, with Arcia debuting with the big league club. Get him on the roster as a backup outfielder and a bat off the bench.
     
    Regardless of what outside opinions suggest however, both players find themselves at a crossroads that could end up being make or break in their big league careers.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the offseason, the Twins absolutely needed to address the issue that was not having a long term solution behind the plate. After having dealt Aaron Hicks to the Yankees in exchange for John Ryan Murphy, they believe they have fixed that issue. Now looking at the outfield landscape, are the Twins ready to take a major plunge?
     
    There was a handful of reason that the Twins were in a position to move Hicks. The outfield is a position of strength and depth for Minnesota. On top of that, it appears Terry Ryan and the Twins are believers in Eddie Rosario, while Hicks was probably more valuable to other teams. New York gave up a level of certainty, in exchange for a player who's ceiling is likely not yet reached. The deal poses an interesting option for Minnesota however.
     
    Early on in the offseason, there had been talk that Miguel Sano would assume one of the corner outfield spots (likely left field). That change would come under the assumption that Minnesota does not deal Trevor Plouffe (I believe they will). Should the roster moves play out as expected, that would leave Paul Molitor with youth (Buxton, Rosario, and Max Kepler) as well as depth (Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, and potentially Shane Robinson) to fill his three man outfield.
     
    Considering the attitude showcased in the Hicks trade, one of aggressiveness, Minnesota may be best served to carry that same principle into the season. In that, I am suggesting that Molitor's best outfield may in fact be starting the season with Rosario in left, Buxton in center, and Kepler in right.
     
    There's no doubt Rosario could be the most concerning of the bunch. He's been a followed prospect, but never one expected to be elite. He garnered Rookie of the Year talk (despite the performance of the big three: Sano, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Correa), and got it done on both sides of the game. His 16 outfield assists were outstanding, and the 11 defensive runs save were impressive. At the plate, his 13 long balls and major league leading 15 triples no doubt were beneficial to the Twins lineup. If he can work on his 46% chase rate (swings at balls out of the zone) and 14.5% swinging strike percentage, he should be just fine.
     
    When it comes to the other two names, the Twins probably have a bit more feel for what should happen. The interesting obstacle in starting the season with Buxton in center and Kepler in right, is when exactly will what should happen play out?
     
    Last season, Buxton played 46 games with the Twins. He slashed just .209/.250/.326 while contributing just 10 extra base hits. Swinging and missing at 13.5% of pitches, he just didn't make enough contact to be a top of the order force. However, his 18.5 DRS total (projected across 162 games) only substantiates his elite defensive ability.
     
    Although Kepler did get his cup of coffee in the big leagues to end the season, he didn't factor into the 2015 Twins. What he did do however, was mash on the farm. At Double-A Chattanooga, Kepler hit .322/.416/.531 with 13 triples and nine homers driving in 71. He walked more than he struck out (67/63) and was named the Southern League MVP. His 63 outfield games a year ago saw him contribute three assists and right field was the spot for each of them.
     
    Going into 2016, an outfield consisting of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler could have more question marks than almost any other team in the big leagues. You could make a similar argument however, that the grouping has the ability to be arguably the best defensive outfield, with an immense offensive upside.
     
    Both Ryan and Molitor will have to make tough decisions this winter and spring regarding the three players. Rosario should be a lock for the Opening Day roster, and I'd put Buxton near 90% after dealing Hicks. If the club decides to take off the bubble wrap though and have the kids learn, contribute, and go for it right out of the gate, Kepler will be there with them.
     
    There's going to be growing pains either way, but the Twins may put together one of the most promising outfields in club history right from the get go.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Last week, the talk of Torii Hunter's retirement press conference was the idea that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan were ready to dabble with Miguel Sano moving positions. No, he wouldn't be playing first base, but instead, they asked him to play the outfield this winter. I already explained what that may look like here, but yesterday the Twins added a new wrinkle: Byung-Ho Park.
     
    The Korean Baseball Organization superstar Park is definitely a fan of flair. The bat-flipping aficianado (who's since said he's given up the theatrics) has hit 210 homers in nine KBO seasons. Last year with Nexen, Park hit 53 home runs and drove in a ridiculous 146 runs. It was quite the follow up to a 2014 season in which he parked 52 homers and drove in 124 runs. As in most cases though, the numbers should decrease somewhat when heading to the big leagues.
     
    Jung Ho Kang, the rookie infielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates, played in the KBO with Park until this past season. In 2014, both playing with Nexen, Kang launched 40 homers and drove in 117 runs. In his first year with the Pirates, that translated to 15 long balls and 58 runs batted in. However, there's more to this picture than simple power numbers.
     
    On the positive side for the Twins (as well as Park), the newest KBO prospect is regarded as not just another free agent, he's elite. His power numbers are what fuels his production, but they are also something that every major league team coveted. With nearly every squad in on the bidding, it was the Twins $12.85 million tag that narrowly edged out the competition. In scouting Park, Minnesota saw the elite player he had been talked up to be. As in all cases though, there's always some cause for concern.
     
    In 2015, the Pirates new Kang would have a learning curve when taking to Major League Baseball. While he started out slow, it was the end of his year that paid dividends. A slow start could be expected for Park, but the biggest concern is the strikeouts. While the homers are impressive, the 28 year-old slugger struck out 161 times while walking just 78 times in 2015. A year prior, he whiffed 142 times drawing 96 walks. Prior to coming over to the big leagues, fellow Korean Kang never struck out more than 109 times in a season.
     
    So where does that leave the Twins and Park? Right now, there's a few things to consider. The first thing to consider is whether Minnesota can sign the Korean superstar. I'd wager the answer is yes, but it's going to cost them. Kang was posted last season for a $5 million fee, while Park just garnered a $12.85 million total. Pittsburgh signed Kang to a 4 year, $11 million contract, and Park is going to far surpass that. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Park's total could look something like 5 years, $40 million. Payroll isn't an issue for the Twins, and that deal makes a lot of sense with the team looking to contend. Park wants to be in the big leagues, and things should trend towards being mutually beneficial for both parties.
     
    Next is what Park looks like for Minnesota. There's very little reason to believe he's going to sniff anywhere near 50 home runs in his first season. What the Twins are hoping for is a middle of the order power bat. If Park can slug something like 30 long balls and drive in close to 100 runs, Terry Ryan will be ecstatic. If the bottom falls out, Park could end up looking like a poor man's Mark Reynolds, striking out over 200 times, and hitting around 10-15 homers. Realistically, I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
     
    Finally, Park is a man without a position. He's a first basemen that profiles almost solely as a designated hitter. Joe Mauer is going to be the Twins first basemen until at least 2018. Right now, designated hitter has been vacated with Miguel Sano moving to the outfield. Something like a Sano, Park one-two punch in the middle of the lineup looks like a good thing for the Twins. Expect an Opening Day outfield of Sano, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario, with Mauer at first, Trevor Plouffe at third, and Park DH'ing. The losers in this scenario are none of the names mentioned, but instead both Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas.
     
    When the dust settles, I'd expected Byung-Ho Park to be the newest member of the Minnesota Twins. Terry Ryan clamored for a power bat, and he's going to get it. Minnesota is stacking talent, and the position shuffling is going to be done on the run. Where things stand currently, there's no doubt the envelope is being pushed for the 2016 season, and you can bet a lot of balls will be leaving the Park.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    To say that the Twins have spent the last week and a half making some position juggling decisions would be to put things lightly. It appears that Miguel Sano is headed to the outfield, and Minnesota has found their newest designated hitter. In the midst of it all, Trevor Plouffe still remains in line to man the hot corner, and for good reason.
     
    There has been plenty of discussion regarding the Twins looking to deal their starting third basemen. Plouffe is considered to be blocking uber-prospect Miguel Sano, and he's only getting more expensive through arbitration. After another solid campaign in 2015, there's no doubt his $4.8 million contract is going to go up in the second year of arbitration eligibility. While a trade could still come to fruition, it's far from something that should be considered a lock.
     
    A season ago, Plouffe had the look (at least early) of an All Star caliber third basemen. He finished with a .244/.307/.435 slash line cemented by 22 homers and 86 runs batted in. The 29 year-old logged career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples, and RBI. On the defensive side of things, he was worth -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) and compiled a 1.7 UZR (ultimate zone rating). Although it was a step back in the field, the improvement defensively over the last two seasons still remains substantial.
     
    In short, Plouffe is an asset for the Twins, and appears to remain so moving forward.
     
    That begs the question, what reason is there for Minnesota to trade him? Considering his positioning as an asset, Plouffe has become a valuable commodity. Adding to that is the fact he is under team control until 2018, and is still just 29 years-old (likely entering his prime a bit later than most). The production combined with the business side of things makes Plouffe a commodity if the Twins choose to go that route.
     
    Looking at the roster shuffle the Twins have recently begun, it's hard to argue against Plouffe not pushing the envelope however. While Sano to left field is a defensive step backwards, it makes a significant amount of sense for the immediate future. Sure, an Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks is a defensive wonder, but it's probably not quite ready yet. Buxton's bat may keep him from the Opening Day roster, and Rosario's swing and miss rates should be some cause for concern. In due time, that scenario could still play out.
     
    With things shaping up as they are, it appears the Twins are poised to go with an outfield of Sano, Hicks, and Rosario. Plouffe would man the hot corner with Joe Mauer at first, and the (hopeful) addition of Byung-Ho Park filling the DH spot. In going with this construction, the Twins would be adding talent all over the field, and worrying about how to make it fit later. In an organization with strong youth prospects, as well as major league pieces, this is an incredibly sensible strategy.
     
    There's still reason to believe Plouffe could be dealt. If a team like the Angels is willing to part with pitching, Terry Ryan would be best served to listen. Regardless, right now the assumption that his bags are already packed should be looked at as incredibly premature. Minnesota is on the cusp of turning the franchise around for the foreseeable future, and parting with talent because of position squeezes isn't generally a viable strategy.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2015, the Minnesota Twins finally unleashed their hulking prospect from the Dominican Republic. Signed what seems like ages ago, the 22 year-old took the big leagues by storm. He swatted 18 homers in just 80 games, and pulverized plenty of pitchers. Heading into 2016 though, he's a man without a position, and his next stop could be in the outfield.
     
    Following Torii Hunter's farewell press conference, media touched base with both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor. In speaking with Molitor, we learned that the Twins have asked Sano to play some outfield during winter league play, and that option is being explored heading into 2016. With Trevor Plouffe slated to man the hot corner (barring a trade), Molitor is determined to get Sano into the outfield another way.
     
    As things stand currently, the Twins most logical outfield configuration to start the season would be Oswaldo Arcia in left, Aaron Hicks in center, and Eddie Rosario in right. Byron Buxton seems destined to begin the year at Triple-A Rochester. So, putting Sano into the mix, the outfield likely becomes Sano, Hicks, and Rosario from left to right. Although that gets his bat into the lineup, it creates some other obstacles for Minnesota.
     
    First and foremost, let's take into consideration that a 6'4" 260 pound human being would be out in left. Sano is a heck of an athlete, but he's played all of 83 innings in the field at the big league level (all coming in the infield). In fact, since the age of 17 when he debuted in the Twins organization, he's never played anything but third, first, or short. In each of those roles, he's been considered passable defensively at best, with a body best suited
    stationary at first base. To say Sano would fail as a left fielder is probably short-sighted, but expecting much more than Oswaldo Arcia's -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) average would be a long shot.
     
    That brings us to the aforementioned Arcia. The Venezuelan slugger had nothing short of a wasted 2015. He was quickly demoted, and despite a home run tear over the summer, he failed to hit over the Mendoza Line at Triple-A Rochester. He's out of options, and there's no way he'd pass through waivers. Unless he's going to be given the keys to the designated hitter role (which could work), he's out in the cold. The Twins could definitely trade him this offseason (and they should be looking), but they'd be selling low.
     
    Aside from the two big guys, the focus then needs to turn to the actual outfielders themselves. Aaron Hicks is really the only one that doesn't need mentioning in this situation. He's got a role going forward, and he profiles well despite the roster shuffles in the grass. However, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler now both have questions of their own.
     
    Rosario burst onto the scene last season for the Twins and garnered some Rookie of the Year talk. Slashing .267/.289/.459 with 13 homers and 60 runs batted in, Rosario was an offensive asset. In the field though, he was a menace to the opposition. He posted a 10 DRS mark and contributed 16 outfield assists. So how do you reward him for that production? Honestly, I'd be looking to trade him (for the right price).
     
    For everything Rosario does well defensively, we may just have seen him at his offensive best. The slash line should provide some reason for concern. Getting on base at just a .289 clip is not good. Rosario drew just 15 walks in 2015, while striking out 118 times (roughly 25% of his at bats). Pitchers loved facing Rosario as they garnered swinging strikes at pitches outside of the zone a ridiculous 46% of the time. Really, the biggest number working to stave off Rosario's plate discipline issues was the fact that he batted .332 on balls in play.
     
    If the Twins choose to keep Rosario going forward, he's going to have to battle significantly better at the plate to be more than a defensive replacement. He's an asset, but in a crowded outfield situation, he may be the one to deal.
     
    Then there's Kepler, the Twins minor league hitter of the year and Southern League MVP. Sure, there's reason to be skeptical that a .322/.416/.531 Double-A slash line translates to the big leagues, but this kid looks special. An adept centerfielder, Kepler can play all three outfield positions. Probably most likely at the big league level is in left, and now he's looking at some newly introduced competition.
     
    From a top down view, Minnesota currently has to include Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia in the outfield. That doesn't take into consideration Byron Buxton should be up quickly, Max Kepler needs a spot, and Miguel Sano seems to be transitioning there from the start. Also of note, the Twins have interested in bringing Shane Robinson back in 2016 (as a 5th outfielder, which would make a good bit of sense). So in total, that's seven outfielders for three spots.
     
    Going forward, Molitor and the Twins know that they'll be including Buxton and Sano in their long term plans. Hicks fits based on present value, perceived future value, and (likely) lack of trade value. That leaves Rosario, Arcia, and Kepler out in the cold to a certain extent. Should the Twins find a good trade partner this winter, I'd look to deal from those three players in that order. Kepler should be near untouchable, with both Rosario and Arcia having the Twins motivated to be entertained.
     
    At the end of the day, it appears that Sano is going to be playing the field at all costs. A Trevor Plouffe trade could make that at third base, but regardless, the Twins have plenty of assets ready to blossom, and some of them should be used to advance the big league roster.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    Sometimes, there's an applicable use for the statement "elephant in the room," but when it comes to the Twins catching problem, that might not do the situation justice. Kurt Suzuki was less than mediocre in 2015, and there isn't much help on the horizon. Those developments put the Twins in an interesting position. What remains to be seen is whether or not they'll dole out the big payday Matt Wieters has coming to him.
     
    ESPN, Twins Daily, heck even here at Off The Baggy, Wieters has been linked to the Twins. He's a living, breathing, and capable catcher on a free agent market void of many options. Outside of the Twins trading for a backstop, the pickings are left relatively slim. With A.J. Pierzynski as a likely backup option, the Twins must consider Wieters. The question is to what extent.
     
    In 2015, Wieters was in the final year of a deal that paid him $8.3 million for the season. Although he's a year removed from Tommy John surgery, he's also a Scott Boras client, and a 29 year-old catcher looking for his big payday. With his one chance, he'll likely be holding out for the highest bidder.
     
    This past year, Wieters played 75 games for the Orioles, but was behind the plate for just 55 of them. He slashed .267/.319/.422 (or essentially his career numbers). Although he played less than half a season, Wieters mustered just eight long balls and 25 runs batted in; he added 14 doubles and tripled once. Behind the dish, Wieters arm was tested 26 times, and he caught eight base stealers (31%). That mark is just one off the league average of 32% and significantly better than the 15% Suzuki threw out.
     
    Looking at how to address the catching situation, much of the Wieters discussion centers around what he should be perceived to be going forward. No doubt his production was muted in 2015, but how much of it was due to being eased back in following injury? He's just 29, and should have plenty of run on him into the future. Spending big on Wieters however, requires the Twins to be of the belief he will produce both at and behind the plate.
     
    As things stand, the Twins need their catcher of the future. A.J. Pierzynski would be a far cry from a fix to that situation. While the former Twin makes a lot of sense on a one-year deal, he creates a the same problem in 2017. Wieters on the other hand, could fill the gap if the Twins believe in his projections going forward.
     
    Prior to his arm injury, Wieters had caught at least 125 games in every season since 2010. He's consistently thrown out would be base stealers around a 35% clip, and his bat is regarded as an asset (launching 20+ homers three different times). In signing Wieters, the Twins would likely be getting a more polished all around version of Josmil Pinto (and a significantly better defensive version).
     
    We are just a few days away from the Twins having to muster up the dollars to present an offer. Wieters should have plenty of suitors, and there's little doubt Boras is going to drive the market as much as he can. It may take a big blank check from the Twins (something their payroll can handle), but the belief that better times are ahead must be there.
     
    Whether it's Wieters or Pierzynski, I think both make a great deal of sense in Minnesota for significantly different reasons. Noting that A.J.'s market is going to be secondary, I'd hope the Twins would go all in on Wieters, until it doesn't make sense to do so. Use the secondary market for what it is, a fallback option.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    In recent seasons, the Twins have been more than well known for taking some flyers on the players of yesteryear. There was Matt Geurrier, Jason Kubel, and even Jason Bartlett. While Torii Hunter had more appeal than those players, more often than not, it's not a winning strategy. However, in 2016, it could actually be a path that makes a lot of sense.
     
    To be fair, there's plenty of reason to tread cautiously. Geurrier all but forced his way to the big leagues with his contract suggesting he be added to the 25 man or leave. Jason Kubel offered the Twins next to nothing in 45 games in 2014. Then there was Bartlett, who was put in the outfield and quickly was worth -2 DRS (defensive runs saved), in just 7.0 innings. While Hunter wasn't the trainwreck of those before him, he was more liability in the field than he wasn't, and his greatest asset came in the clubhouse.
     
    With the Twins in a position to take another step forward in the upcoming season, there's a couple of options that could make a decent bit of sense. With the bulk of the roster being set, and holes being more position related than the team as a whole, Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan could find fits from at least two of three former Twins.
     
    Let's start with the guy that probably doesn't make sense to bring back; Justin Morneau. The Colorado Rockies recently declined the team option on his contract, and the former league MVP and batting champ now is a free agent. He'll be 35 next year, and is coming off of a season that was once again cut short by a concussion.
     
    In two seasons with the Rockies, Morneau slashed .316/.363/.487. Coors Field no doubt aided in his increased slash line, and he's a prime candidate for regression no matter where he goes (Morneau hadn't hit about .267 since 2010 previously). While hitting for average, Morneau hit only 17 homers a year ago, and just three in 2015. On top of the expected dip in production, Morneau is a first basemen or designated hitter, two places the Twins already have too many options. This one is a pass.
     
    Next, it's time to touch on the fit behind the plate again. A.J. Pierzynski is an ideal fit on a one-year deal to pair with Kurt Suzuki. Should the Twins not want to shell out big money to Matt Wieters, it's Pierzynski they should turn to. I've made all of the points as to why he would work here (go read it please).
     
    He's going to be playing at age 39 this upcoming year, and while the age should cause him to regress, the same argument could have been made in 2015. Unlike past scenarios, putting A.J. behind the plate in the year ahead would be much more about production than it would a reunion or feel good story. If the opportunity is there, the Twins should take it.
     
    Finally, and maybe most interestingly, the Twins have a bullpen option to consider. Looking to improve upon one of the worst relief situations in all of baseball, Minnesota has plenty to consider. Former closer Joe Nathan is one of the names they could choose to look at. The Tigers declined his $10 million option (sensibly), as he's returning from Tommy John surgery.
     
    Nathan's last deal was a two-year, $20 million contract from Detroit. In his four years since leaving the Twins, he owns a 2.93 ERA and has converted 116 saves. He still strikes a ton of batters out (9.91 K/9), although being admittedly dangerous the past two years (3.1 BB/9 in 2013 4.5 BB/9 in 2014). The caveat here is that in Minnesota, he wouldn't have to close.
     
    I'm not sure what the market will look like for a guy like Nathan. When he signed that $20 million deal, he was coming off an All Star season with the Tigers. Now, he's trying to rebuild his value (both from injury and ineffectiveness). If Ryan gets an opportunity to bring Nathan in on a minor-league deal with a spring training invite, Minnesota should do so in a heartbeat. Allowing him to pitch in a Casey Fien role seems to make a lot of sense.
     
    Although in recent seasons the Twins have made a habit of bringing back retreads in hopes of finding a former spark, they aren't in a position to do that in 2016. You can't have has-beens taking meaningful at bats, but in Pierzynski and Nathan, the expectation would be much higher. If there's a reunion tour this time around, expect it to make much more sense.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    The day after the World Series comes to a close may be one of the saddest in baseball. With the realization that the offseason has officially commenced, it's time to buckle in for the winter. For the Twins, 2016 represents that start of what should be a renewed run of playoff contention. To accomplish that, modeling after both World Series teams seems to be a good starting place.
     
    In taking a top down view at both the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals, both teams have relatively apparent strengths. For the Mets, it was no doubt a pitching staff of fireballers that could all be regarded as true aces. From Harvey to Syndergaard, and those in between, the Mets don't miss a beat. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year isn't their number one, and Zack Wheeler didn't factor in at all during 2015. It's safe to say the Mets are plenty strong in the pitching department.
     
    Then you have the Royals, and their foundation built on creating havoc and sustaining leads. A lineup full of guys that simply put the ball in play, backed by a bullpen that doesn't surrender runs. While Ned Yost isn't always the cleanest in his execution, it's the combination of putting pressure on the opposition while breathing easy with a lead that makes his club dangerous.
     
    For Minnesota, Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have yet to accomplish either of those teams qualities thus far. There's no doubt the Twins lineup has been given a boost with the emergence of young stars, but the fact remains that there are some significant holes. On the mound, both starting pitching and relief work pales in comparison to the World Series finalists.
     
    A rotation composes more a good-not-great types, the Twins don't project to be like the Mets on the bump any time soon. Owning one of the worst bullpens in baseball this past season, Minnesota knew a lead was never safe. Despite a strong first half from closer Glen Perkins, there were apparent deficiencies from the get go. For the Twins to turn the corner, taking bits and pieces from the two November squads would be a good start.
     
    Looking at what the Twins should have in the rotation to start 2016, not much will change. Jose Berrios or Trevor May could be added into the grouping, but at least from the start, a true ace doesn't appear to be on the horizon. While every team would love to have a go-to number one, Minnesota has to look no further than the Royals to see that isn't necessary. Getting quality outings on a nightly basis to keep you in games is much more sustainable. Fixing the bullpen makes that strategy much more workable.
     
    In trying to copy the offensive production of both squads, ironing out a more complete lineup has to be a goal. Working around the inclusion of players that can't advance the order, Paul Molitor would have plenty more tools to work with. The Royals created runs on the basepaths, and by protecting the zone. The Mets took the approach of the longball, and working counts. While no doubt Kansas City's plan of attack is more sustainable, both approaches (with complete lineups), should produce positive results.
     
    At this point, the Twins can effectively rule out being either the Royals or the Mets. What they can do however, is focus on what they do and don't want to emulate. Building a stronger bullpen, while filling out a complete lineup is a good start. Having a more advanced defense than New York, it's not out of line to suggest the Twins can put together something plenty special on their own.
     
    Only two teams advance to the series that matters most each year, but in watching it unfold, the Twins can make the necessary tweaks to draw much more even.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Last night, Torii Hunter decided to officially hang up his cleats after 19 seasons playing Major League Baseball. Having spent the majority of his career with the Twins, the fan favorite no doubt will go down as one of the most celebrated Minnesota sports figures ever. What he should not do though is see his number hung from the rafters (er above Barrio in left field). Instead, his next stop should be the mound for a ceremonial first pitch.
     
    There's little denying that Torii Hunter gave both the Minnesota Twins and the game of baseball a significant amount of lift. He was a nine-time Gold Glove award winner, he went to four All Star games, and he won two Silver Sluggers in his career. The Arkansas native belted 353 career home runs, tallied 2,452 hits, and drove in 1,391 runs. By all measurable standards it was a great career.
     
    That also presents the issue for Hunter in regards to retiring number 48. It was great, but not exceptional.
    As things stand currently, the Minnesota Twins have retired just seven numbers. Those include Kirby Puckett, Harmon Killebrew, Kent Hrbek, Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Tom Kelly, and Bert Blyleven. Four of those players are in the Hall of Fame, one is an eight-time All Star, another is a two-time World Series manager, and the final is somewhat of a by-product of being a hometown hero. So, where does Torii fit among that grouping?
     
    In terms of statistical quantification, Hunter has compiled a career 41.6 fWAR. That number is higher than only Tony Oliva (40.7 fWAR) and Kent Hrbek (37.6 fWAR). It trails significantly behind Kirby Puckett (66.1 fWAR), Rod Carew (72.3 fWAR), and Bert Blyleven (102.9). Hunter's best season by fWAR standards came in 2012 (with the Angels) when he posted a 5.2 mark. On a per season basis, he's averaged just 2.19 fWAR. To put that into context, Eddie Rosario posted a 2.3 fWAR for the Twins in 2013.
     
    When deciding whether or not to retire Hunter's number, it's probably less about the numbers than the other factors surrounding it. Looking back on his career, you'd be hard pressed to argue that Hunter's value across Twins Territory was not first and foremost felt through an emotional attachment. He was fun to watch, played the game the right way, and got it done. As noted above though, he was great, but not exceptional. Allowing him in the club opens up a difficult door.
     
    Looking back at some of the teams Torii was best known for, there's two other names that would seem to be in his class. Both Brad Radke and Joe Nathan could have a similar claim to make should Hunter's jersey be no more. Radke owned a 38.7 fWAR despite being a pitcher and playing for only 12 seasons (he also was with the Twins for all of them). While Nathan can't be quantified through WAR, his Twins record saves total comes full circle.
     
    In total, the suggestion is far from Torii Hunter not being celebrated, he absolutely should. However, he should not be revered, and the honor of a number no longer being available should remain a sacred right of passage. Hunter has my vote to throw out the first pitch on Opening Day 2016, but leave the jersey retiring to those who achieved more.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Torii Hunter has officially announced his retirement from baseball. For fans around Twins Territory, this should come with mixed emotions. While Hunter was a player beloved by many, he was an aging player well past his prime. Now with the Twins set to move on, they can focus on crafting their outfield for the future. What exactly does that look like however?
     
    In 2015, Hunter started 121 games in right field for the Twins. He contributed 1,035 innings, made 231 putouts, and added six outfield assists. On the offensive side of things, the fan favorite slashed .240/.293/.409 with 22 homers and 81 runs batted in. From a top down view, that's what the Twins are looking to replace. Broadening the scope though, there's some other factors at play with Hunter's departure.
     
    As an outfield, Hunter has been a liability for some time now. He made a career high five errors, and had the second lowest fielding percentage (.979) of his 19 year career. Looking into the advanced metrics, the Arkansas native was worth -8 defensive runs saved this past season, and he owned a lackluster 0.3 ultimate zone rating. To summarize, Torii Hunter the outfielder is addition by subtraction for the Twins.
     
    Going into 2016, the assume outfield configuration (or at least the one for the bulk of the season), should be Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks from left to right. It wouldn't be surprising to see Buxton start at Triple-A, but he'll likely spend 75% of his season with the Twins. Despite having those three locked in, Minnesota has been afforded some other options with Hunter's retirement.
     
    While Hicks has the ability to be a 20/20 guy if he can build of his impressive 2015, Rosario and Buxton are tougher to project. Buxton could still face some growing pains, and Rosario's free swinging tendencies make him a prime candidate to face some regression. With that in mind, the focus turns to who's behind the main three.
     
    On what is almost assuredly his final chance, Oswaldo Arcia will need to impress. The defensively lacking outfielder didn't contribute anything significant to the Twins in 2015. Despite a hot homer stretch at Triple-A, his final average was actually below the Mendoza Line. However, Arcia is just a year removed from a 20 homer season at the big league level. Out of options in 2016, Arcia will be given every opportunity to turn the corner.
     
    After Arcia, it's another intriguing prospect, and the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year, Max Kepler. 23 next season, Kepler broke out big time in 2015. He slashed .318/.410/.520 spending 112 games with Double-A Chattanooga. With nine homers, and 13 triples, Kepler's power and speed combination is exciting. Having gotten a cup of coffee to end the 2015 season, there's no doubt the German wants to be at the big league level for good.
     
    By retiring, Hunter likely saved the Twins from themselves. After playing on a one-year, $10.5 million deal in 2015, a similar situation was going to play out in 2016 had he wanted to return (likely for less money). Instead, Minnesota is afforded an open roster spot, and the position to integrate the talented youth providing outfield depth.
     
    Going into the 2015 season, the Twins had far from a sure thing in Hicks, and Rosario (despite a strong spring) wasn't yet ready for the big time. Hunter manned the outfield with the likes of Arcia and vets Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. This time around, it's the kids time to run with it. Behind the main three, both Arcia or Kepler can be included among the 25 man to round out the outfield grouping. Should Buxton start on the farm, it'll be Arcia in right with the 4th spot up for grabs.
     
    At the end of the day, Minnesota has plenty of options to pick up where Hunter left off. Almost all of them provide a net gain in being better defensive fits, and the offensive ceiling should only be pushed as time goes on. Although the Torii Hunter era has ended, it's the best case scenario for Minnesota, and Paul Molitor has plenty of weapons at his disposal.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    Between blogs (hopefully this is your first stop), traditional newspaper outlets, and advanced media such as radio and television, the Twins are well covered in the Twin Cities. Making a regularly scheduled appearance on ESPN Radio with Patrick Reusse, Paul Molitor provided some interesting tidbits yesterday. Over the course of his 45 minute candid appearance, there were some Twins notes that definitely are worth addressing.
     
    Paul Molitor is heading into his first offseason having been the acting manager the season before. With a full year of evaluation, Molitor now has the task of positioning the active roster for sustained competitiveness in the years to come. Judging by his interview, he's already given the process some serious thought.
     
    Early on when talking to Reusse, Molitor addressed the bullpen, and suggested Neal Cotts could be brought back. As things stand currently, Cotts (acquired from the Brewers) is headed to free agency. There's been some buzz that the Twins would look into bringing him back needing a left-handed arm in relief. Cotts pitched on a one-year, $3 million deal in 2015, and no doubt would be looking for more. He owned a 3.95 ERA across 13.2 IP for the Twins, but had a 5.99 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and a 1.390 WHIP. Cotts struck out just 5.9 per nine and walked 3.3 per nine (walks mirroring his career numbers). If you're looking to fix the pen, Cotts isn't where I'd start.
     
    Following the pen discussion, Molitor then turned his attention toward some of the youth in the Twins organization. First noting pitcher Jose Berrios, Molitor had good things to say of his performance in 2015. With a 2.87 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 2015, it's hard not to be excited about the production. The Twins skipper did touch on concerns of workload (Berrios pitched 166.1 innings in 2015, previous high was 139.2), despite noting his work ethic and conditioning.
     
    There was plenty of angst towards the Twins in not promoting Berrios down the stretch. Molitor suggested that he was in favor of keeping the Puerto Rican hurler on the farm, and that service time and contracts unfortunately come into play. He'll be pushing for time out of Spring Training, but it doesn't sound like Molitor plans on opening that door too easily.
     
    From the mound to the outfield, Molitor then discussed Byron Buxton's performance down the stretch. Despite not getting into too much action, Molitor noted the staff "saw lots of signs of improvement," also noting his "athleticism is off the charts." It doesn't appear that the organization is convinced Buxton will open 2016 with the big league club however. Buxton shouldn't have a prolonged stay in Triple-A, but beginning the season there seems like the route that may be taken.
     
    Staying in the outfield, Torii Hunter then became a talking point. Molitor praised his season (at least the 20 HR 80 RBI portion of it), and said there's "interest on our side," in regards to bringing him back. It doesn't sound like Torii has made up his mind as to what he'd like to do. Despite Reusse suggesting most don't understand defensive metrics outside of the organization, it's the defensive metrics that should have Twins fans wanting Hunter out the door. He posted an ugly -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) and a poor 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating) in 2015. His roster spot is better used on someone more than just a figurehead.
     
    Interestingly enough, and despite the youth out in the outfield, Molitor seems to believe the Twins outfield depth isn't where he wants it. Noting that Hicks is off to a good start but needs to continue that path, and having some other unproven youth, he took the conversation to an unexpected place. Suggesting it's "not out of the realm of possibility" to play Miguel Sano in the outfield, it doesn't seem the Twins are concerned about getting him out of being solely a DH.
     
    Lastly addressing the infield, Molitor quickly suggested that Eduardo Escobar is their shortstop. He earned the role in 2015, and should be allowed to run with it for the immediate future. His fWAR ranks 12th among 72 shortstops with 100 or more plate appearances since 2014 (credit @Brandon_Warne).
     
    With Escobar locking down short, Molitor offered that "We're (Twins) going to run into issues with (Danny) Santana, out of options and all." The problem with this line of thinking is that there really is no problem at all. Both Escobar and Eduardo Nunez filled super utility roles for the Twins in the past. Santana seems like the ideal candidate to do so at least in 2016, and that decision becomes even more clear when not wasting roster spots on players like Hunter.
     
    As a whole, the conversation was extremely candid, and often times Molitor lets slip some very good tidbits of information. The Twins have begun to trim their 40 man roster already, and more decisions loom this offseason. Minnesota needs to take another step forward in 2016, and seeing how that happens will be interesting.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    As with all major league organizations, the offseason brings change. The Twins have been done with baseball games since the first week of October. Now looking ahead to preparing for 2016, roster decisions begin. The first came with three players being removed from the 40 man roster. Shane Robinson, Eric Fryer, and Aaron Thompson were all outrighted to Triple-A and cleared waivers.
     
    Heading into 2015, Robinson was signed strictly as a veteran outfielder to provide depth, a move that the Twins missed on the year before. Paired with Jordan Schafer, it was Robinson who proved vital and gave the Twins everything they asked of him. Fryer is was little more than catching depth this past season, and despite getting big league action, it was more out of necessity than anything. Thompson, a former first round pick (by the Florida Marlins), put together a strong first couple months before eventually falling off the deep end for the Twins.
     
    Now with all three players allowed to either accept the assignment to Triple-A or elect free agency (as I would expect Shane Robinson will and should), the Twins 40 man roster stands at 37. With both Logan Darnell and Ryan Pressly on the 60 day DL and needing to be activated, that leaves one opening of the 40. Minnesota no doubt needs more space however.
     
    Before even considering free agency or trade acquisitions, Terry Ryan has some internal housekeeping to do. Minor leaguers Taylor Rogers, J.T. Chargois, Zack Jones, Felix Jorge, Travis Harrison, and Adam Brett Walker all need to be added to the 40 man or be vulnerable in the Rule 5 Draft. Each of those players would seem likely for the Twins to want to protect. In total, that's seven needs with just one open spot.
     
    Having yet to do so, Minnesota has room to trim more from the 40 man however. A.J. Achter came up late in the season and pitched out of the pen, but his minor league success didn't follow, he would seem to be someone that would go unclaimed on waivers and could be outrighted. Ryan O'Rourke would also fit that mold. Concerning more "big-league" type names, Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing, Chris Herrmann, and Eduardo Nunez are all possibilities.
     
    I'd assume that Minnesota would be open to bringing Boyer back in 2016. Despite pitcher over his head for the most part, he could have a role in an improved pen. Duensing likely won't (and shouldn't) be offered a new deal, so I'd expect him to be on the way out. For Herrman, his place is in secure if the Twins don't address their need for a catcher (they likely will, but that means Herrmann's removal will be spoken for). I'm not quite sure on a read for Nunez and his spot with the Twins going forward. He's arbitration eligible, but he could be bumped if the Twins want to use Danny Santana (who's out of options) in the utility role.
     
    Looking at those raw numbers in a quick sense though, it would seem they open up only three more guaranteed 40 man roster spots. In total, that gives the Twins four openings with seven guys needing protection, and outside help likely on the way. Trades could address some of the roster crunch, and we're sure to see things unfold more completely as the offseason drags on.
    The only other guaranteed openings for the Twins come through the removal (or assumed removal) of free agents. Minnesota has five: Torii Hunter, Mike Pelfrey, Duensing, Boyer, and Neal Cotts. Hunter is a wile card, while Pelfrey is anything but. Duensing is assumed gone, and Boyer is up in the air. The Twins will likely talk to Cotts, but his performance down the stretch should have them being cautious, left-handed thrower and all.
     
    For now however, those guys on the bubble have to be wondering where they fit for the Twins going forward. In the Rule 5 Draft this past season, the Twins selected J.R. Graham from the Atlanta Braves, and they lost Sean Gilmartin to the Mets.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    After the 2015 Major League Baseball season that the Minnesota Twins just experienced, expectations for the upcoming 2016 year are at an all time high. Having not made the playoffs since the 2010 season, this offseason is pivotal. Terry Ryan and the Twins brain-trust will be expected to make some key moves to push the Twins over the top. Once again, could it be another free agent pitcher that highlights the winter?
     
    Each of the past few seasons, the Twins have made a splash. First it was Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. Last offseason, it was Ervin Santana. Now with pitching as more of a strength, and looking to push the attitude towards a higher quality than simply a quantity of arms, a different type of starter could emerge.
     
    The free agent pool for starting pitchers this offseason has multiple different tiers covered. There's the unrealistic types such as Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, and David Price. Then there's more of the same (similar to Hughes or Santana) in names like Yovani Gallardo, Jaime Garcia, Scott Kazmir, and even Clay Bucholz. One name not mentioned, and a guy that could be a potential fit, Jordan Zimmerman.
     
    After seven seasons with the Washington Nationals, Zimmerman is ready to move on. Coming off a 2 year, $24 million deal, he's ready for his first big payday. Something in the five year, $90-100 million range seems expected, and for a guy who will be 30 in May, that sounds about right.
     
    In 2015, Zimmerman posted his worst full season with the Nationals. The good news is he was still pretty good. Owning a 3.66 ERA across 33 starts and 201.2 IP, he backed his performance with a 3.75 FIP (fielding independent pitching). His walk numbers (1.7 BB/9) fit in well with the Twins staff, and despite not being a strikeout master (7.3 K/9), he'd be among the Twins best.
     
    Having never pitched in the American League, there's no doubt the Twins would be taking a chance on bringing him over. His sparkling 2.84 ERA at home in 2015 helped to downplay a 4.87 ERA in 14 road starts. Over the course of his career, Zimmerman has mad 24 Inter-League starts. In those games, he owns a 3.05 ERA and has struck out batters at a 7.3 K/9 rate. The expectation should be that he could continue being an above average pitcher in Minnesota.
     
    To be fair, the Twins don't have to go an find a top of the rotation starter this offseason. The Kansas City Royals are going to the World Series without one (Cueto has been anything but), and the New York Mets have shown how important it is to have guys that give you a chance every single night. However, should the Twins target Zimmerman, the next question becomes whether or not the financial implications are doable.
     
    Needing to address the catcher role, and relief pitching, Minnesota has some other priorities this offseason. In 2015, the payroll sat just over $106 million. As things stand right now, Minnesota has contracts handed out to seven players worth a total of $73 million. Obviously that number is going to rise, and before Zimmerman, I'd expect the Twins to be in the $107 million ballpark for 2016. With that said, adding an arm like the former Nationals starter would put the Twins somewhere around $125 million in the year ahead. That jump is significant, and a mark the club has never seen before. It's hard to fathom them being comfortable with that for one player, even if the dollars are accesible (I believe they are).
     
    At the end of the day, Zimmerman is a Midwest native (hailing from Wisconsin), the Twins have a need (potentially), and Minnesota has the money (ideally). It would take an absolute perfect storm for a deal to come together, but it may be the best plan of action. Rather than adding another depth rotation arm, solidifying the top of the rotation may be the best thing for Molitor and Ryan.
     
    There's little room to argue Zimmerman is anything but a longshot, but over the likes of Kazmir, Bucholz, or Jeff Samardzija, give me the guy looking to get paid.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    For Twins fans, this is a position that Minnesota has not been in for quite some time. Experiencing a starting rotation drought that had the Twins five at the bottom of baseball for years, a new wave is being ushered in. Now with depth, and improved quality on the mound, Paul Molitor has some tough choices to make going into 2016. However, with more arms than openings, it may be time to consider a more aggressive quality over quantity approach.
     
    As always, there's five openings in the starting rotation. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson are absolutely locked in for three of them. That leaves a slew of arms including Ricky Nolasco, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, and even Alex Meyer to fight over the final two spots. While not all of those options are ideal, a handful of them are. That said, Minnesota could opt to make an aggressive move that may pay dividends both now and into the future.
     
    Formerly a first round draft pick back in 2009, Minnesota selected Kyle Gibson out of the University of Missouri. As a college pitcher, he was expected to accelerate through the farm quickly. Tommy John surgery derailed the debut somewhat, but he surfaced at the age of 25 in 2013. Now 73 big league games under his belt, Gibson turned in a 2015 worthy of turning some heads.
     
    In 32 starts, Gibson owned a 3.84 ERA. It was backed by a 3.96 FIP and a 1.289 WHIP. His 6.7 K/9 mark was a career best and his 3.0 BB/9 tally was in line with his past totals. Gibson also allowed a career low 8.6 H/9 and was virtually one start away from compiling his first 200 inning season. By all standard statistics, Kyle Gibson's 2015 was a breakout year.
     
    Then there's the advanced statistics. They tell a very similar story. Over the past year, Gibson allowed hard contact on just 27.3% of his pitches, in line with his career totals. He also generated ground balls on over 53% of his pitches put into play. While he gave up more home runs than at any other point in his major league career, that may have been his lone blemish. Gibson's 35.7% out-of-zone swings were a career high, and he pushed his swinging strike percentage to 9.8 (also a career best).
     
    So why then would the Twins look to trade a young pitcher at the top of his game? The answer is two fold, and not necessarily cut and dry.
     
    First and foremost, Kyle Gibson is not nearly as young as you'd believe. 28 years old on October 23rd, Gibson is most definitely a late bloomer. While he is under team control until 2020, and doesn't hit arbitration until 2017, the expectation should be that his prime could be somewhat muted. As much as team control is an asset to the Twins, it is also a commodity to a trade partner in any scenario as well.
     
    Then things circle back to the idea of the rotation construction for the Twins. At his best, Gibson may be a number two starter, but more likely is a three or four. Minnesota is in a position to begin a window of competitiveness for years to come. The rotation is currently comprised of arms that would likely top out as a number two starter at best. Moving Gibson could clear the way for that to change.
     
    Both May or Berrios could immediately pick up Gibson's slack, and may have higher ceilings. Any move that would send Gibson away from the Twins would also need to command quite a return. Taking on a veteran, or a higher ceiling prospect with front of the rotation stuff could be something that would move the needle for Terry Ryan.
     
    While a significant longshot, and something I myself am not even convinced I would entertain, there's definite reason to explore what the return for Kyle Gibson would look like. With the Twins entering a time where they should again be good, raising their own floor through higher ceiling acquisitions needs to be a part of the strategy. Whether Gibson is a part of the Twins future or not, his potential to help Minnesota could come on the mound just as likely as it could come off of it.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2015, there's little denying that the catcher position was one of the largest deficiencies for the Minnesota Twins. After an All Star caliber 2014, Kurt Suzuki regressed towards his career norms. Never a good defensive catcher, his offensive production waned as well. Going forward, it's an area that Terry Ryan knows he needs to address.
     
    Following a season in which Suzuki slashed just .240/.296/.314 and threw out an MLB worst 15% of would be base stealers, things need to change. Suzuki is with the Twins for another year (signed through 2016), but Paul Molitor can't afford to pair him with the likes of Chris Herrmann or Eric Fryer going forward. On a team looking to take the next step, the needle absolutely needs to be pushed.
     
    So, barring a trade bringing in long term depth to help supplement the organization's catching woes, free agency is going to have to be the route. For Minnesota, the most high-profile name is no doubt Matt Wieters. The guy once billed as the next Joe Mauer (when Mauer was a Hall of Fame type of backstop) has never lived up to that status. However, he's a career .258/.320/.423 hitter having spent all seven of his big league years with the Orioles. He owns a solid 32% caught stealing rate, but does have arm concerns after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014. That all said, the Twins answer isn't Wieters.
     
    In fact, it's probably even more of a familiar face.
     
    Welcome back A.J. Pierzynski. The 38 year old catcher is coming off a one year, $2 million deal with the Atlanta Braves. After a dip in production since leaving Texas in 2013, Pierzynski turned in a very strong 2015 campaign. Across 113 games for the Braves, A.J. caught 107 while slashing .300/.339/.430. He added 24 doubles, nine homers, and 49 runs batted in. Striking out just 37 times in 436 plate appearances, Pierzynski's plate discipline scoffs at even Suzuki's (who's regarded as a tough hitter to strike out).
     
    Knowing that Suzuki is not going anywhere, Pierzynski profiles as a solid platoon mate for the upcoming year. Having slashed .309/.342/.457 against right-handed pitching, it would be A.J. picking up the slack for Suzuki (who slashed .232/.284/.303 vs RHP). Pierzynski's 28% caught stealing rate would also be a welcomed addition to a Twins team that was far too easily run on the past season.
     
    Now, there's no doubt Pierzynski has been on both sides of the fence among Twins fans. What matters though is that production is always reality, and getting contributions from the former Twin would quiet those issues. Providing a veteran presence with a high level of production is something that a young Twins roster would no doubt benefit from.
     
    Ideally, Minnesota sees significant improvement from catchers Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver in 2016. Both are playing in the Arizona Fall League, and are regarded as some of the little depth the Twins system has. With Josmil Pinto being a major question mark after an injury riddled 2015, Minnesota buying time with a Pierzynski type makes a lot of sense.
     
    While Wieters may be the bigger name, he's also going to command a much higher price. With uncertainties ahead, he may also not solve the Twins issues going forward. Pierzynski gives the Twins a real positive option in the immediate future, with the ability to not force a decision before the organization has to.
     
    If there's a more realistic trade target out there that solidifies the catcher position going forward, the Twins should make it. The possibility of it coming with as little risk as bringing back A.J. Pierzynski seems far-fetched however, and calling upon an old friend is something Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan should make a plan A this offseason.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    As the Minnesota Twins look towards the offseason, it will be in that period of time that roster decisions are made in setting the landscape for the year ahead. As always, the 40 man and 25 man roster crunches will be felt by an unlucky few. With Minnesota looking to compete at a high level in the year ahead, there's some household names that may be on the outside looking in.
     
    To be exact, the Twins have seven players that are out of options in 2016. With a few of them posing some real significant questions for the Twins, they may be better off dealt during the offseason rather than lost out of spring training. Treating each case differently, here's those seven players, and their likelihood of sticking with the Twins in 2016.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia
     
    Probably the most interesting name on this list, Arcia has some significant complications. He played in just 19 games at the big league level last season, but he slashed .276/.338/.718. Outside of an impressive home run streak during the summer for Triple-A Rochester, his season was abysmal. He finished slashing just .199/.257/.372 at Triple-A, and he struck out 82 times walking just 18 times.
     
    At 25 next season, he's still got youth on his side, but there's problems. Arcia still swings far to freely, and plays terrible defense in the outfield. His upside remains there, but waiting on it is something the Twins don't have the benefit of anymore. In a crowded outfield situation, Arcia could be the odd man out. Trading him now would be selling low, but getting something in return for him would be better than nothing. Minnesota won't put him through waivers (he'd be claimed), so it's either deal him or bring him up. I'd expect he starts with the Twins in 2016 and platoons as a left handed bat to compliment Aaron Hicks.
     
    Aaron Hicks
     
    What a difference a year makes. After 2015, Hicks finds himself in a vastly different place going into the season ahead. Hicks broke out as I expected him to, and he looks the part of a contributor for the Twins going forward. He ended up hitting .256/.323/.398 with 11 homers and 33 RBI. He'd a legitimate 20/20 threat in a full season if he can keep his development arrow pointing up.
     
    Where, how, and in what capacity Hicks is utilized in 2016 will depend on Torii Hunter to a certain extent (please retire). Regardless, he'll be with the Twins (barring a trade), and a trip back to the farm won't be considered. After a tumultuous ride to the big leagues, the Twins former first round pick is here to stay.
     
    Chris Herrmann
     
    In somewhat of a surprising development, it was Herrmann that served as the primary backup to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki in 2015. He rewarded the Twins with a .146/.214/.272 slash line across 103 at bats. He did catch would be base stealers at a nice 42% clip, but offers little else on a big league roster.
     
    The Twins know catching depth is not something they have within the organization, and the position absolutely must be addressed this offseason. It should be expected that another veteran comes in to pair with Suzuki, and that would render Herrmann's role non existent. He could be sent through waivers and would likely go unclaimed. No matter what happens though, he won't be on the Twins 25 man come 2016.
     
    Michael Tonkin
     
    The 6'7" reliever was sent up and down plenty of times during the 2015 season. At the big league level, he was given 23.1 innings of work and turned in a 3.47 ERA. For Triple-A Rochester, he owned a 1.10 ERA across 41.0 innings. Less than ideal as it may be, Tonkin may be cut of the same cloth as former Twins reliever Anthony Slama.
     
    With strong minor league numbers, and mediocre numbers at the big league level the Twins expect more from Tonkin. Separating him from Slama, the belief that Tonkin actually does have more to give. Coming out of spring training 2016, Tonkin should be in the Twins pen, and in an expanded role, I think he has the stuff to succeed. He'll be with the Twins in 2016, at least to start the year.
     
    Lester Oliveros
     
    Despite pitching well for a stretch in 2015, Oliveros didn't make an appearance in the big leagues last season. He owned a 3.79 ERA for Rochester pitching in 35.2 innings. His 11.6 K/9 mark was impressive, but his numbers ballooned down the stretch as he pitched through some injury issues. The walk and strikeout are solid, but Oliveros leaves plenty to be desired at the next level.
     
    This season, Oliveros will be 28 and he's been given chances at the big league level (29.1 IP 5.22 ERA). Not currently on the 40 man, waivers aren't yet in play for Oliver's (though he'd possibly go unclaimed regardless). Should Terry Ryan address his bullpen as I'd assume he knows he needs to, then I don't see much place for a fringe guy with little upside like Oliveros.
     
    Josmil Pinto
     
    Along the same lines as Oswaldo Arcia, Pinto is a very interesting case. Expected to be Kurt Suzuki's primary backup, a concussion took that off the table during the spring. Then, production and another concussion ended the discussion during the season. Pinto played in only 72 games last season and he slashed just .228/.300/.369. Just 19 extra base hits in over 260 at bats, the power production wasn't ideal either.
     
    Paul Molitor will have Pinto on the 25 man next season, but where he fits will be difficult. The Twins have to bring in another catcher, and they already have plenty of designated hitter options. Even before the concussions a year ago, Pinto was mediocre behind the plate at best. His biggest value to the organization may now be as a trade chip. This is definitely a situation to watch.
     
    Aaron Thompson
     
    A one time first round pick (2005 by the Marlins) Thompson actually pitched well for the Twins for a period last season. Then he got hammered. After being the go to lefty at the beginning of the year, he got exposed and ended up with a 5.01 ERA in 32.1 IP. Contributing to the problem was a strikeout rate of just 4.7 K/9. After being demoted to Triple-A, Thompson posted a 3.71 ERA across 17.0 innings to end the year.
     
    With plenty of mediocrity stacked against him, a less than ideal bullpen at the big league level, and peripherals that do nothing to move the needle, Thompson doesn't fit. He doesn't strike anyone out, and there's other lefty options available. Whether Neal Cotts is back or not, Thompson shouldn't be for the Twins. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, Minnesota has keeps him as a depth arm. Regardless, Thompson doesn't appear to have a 25 man role.
     
    Danny Santana
     
    After a ridiculous 2014 thanks to an incredibly inflated BABIP (batting average on balls in play), Santana was in over his head beginning in 2015. He was the Twins Opening Day shortstop, but lost the job after being both poor at the plate and in the field. He finished with a .215/.241/.291 slash line at the big league level. Santana did hit .322/.348/.500 at Triple-A Rochester, but he walked only 13 times while striking out 93 times.
     
    On the 40 man and having already had a full season at the big league level, it's hard to see Santana not on the 25 man next season. Minnesota may be best served to jettison a guy like Eduardo Nunez to create room, as Santana profiles as a super utility option. He's not a great hitter, and he's an average fielder, but you could do worse off of the bench.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    After the season the Minnesota Twins just had, it's hard not to get excited about what's to come in 2016. For an organization that has lost 90 games each of the past four seasons, a winning year and Wild Card run was much needed. Now, the way in which Terry Ryan attacks the offseason will help to lay the blueprint for what's ahead.
     
    Today, MLB Trade Rumors rolled out their offseason outlook for the Twins (go read it, it's very good). After author Steve Adams appeared way off base on the Twins going into the season, he couldn't have repeatedly hit the proverbial nail on the head more often than he did in his outlook. The Twins find themselves at an interesting crossroads. Somewhere in the middle of hoarding prospects and making monumental moves, the organization has some big decisions to make.
     
    On the pitching side of things, the Twins have much more quantity than they have quality. That isn't to say the rotation isn't in a better place than it has been in years, but there is a solid group of three and four starter types. Lacking a clear ace, an upgrade would only make sense if it's of the top tier variety.
     
    In the bullpen, that isn't the case at all. With relief pitching being a problem area throughout 2015, the Twins absolutely have to add some quality arms. Another year of Kevin Jepsen will help, and graduating some of the Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and Jake Reed group will also, but Minnesota will need more. Bringing in at least one more reliever is going to be a must.
     
    On the offensive side of things, the Twins have more logjams than anything. Trevor Plouffe hamstrung by a top prospect and a deteriorating first basemen. Oswaldo Arcia is out of options, and Torii Hunter may end up undeservedly stealing a roster spot. There's little arguing against that the Twins have more bodies than they have positions to fill.
     
    That brings us to the crux of the offseason, the splash the Twins should be looking at making. After competing ahead of schedule, and before getting contributions from some top notch prospects, Minnesota is probably closer than many would have imagined. Banking in on that and running with the success would be a well placed plan for Molitor's squad.
     
    A splash should come in the form of a very active offseason. Whether by way of trade or free agency acquisitions, the Twins need to push for quality, while taking hits in the quantity department. MLB Trade Rumors looked at Jose Reyes as a trade target at short (I don't love that), Jordan Zimmerman in the rotation (that would be a fit), and maybe a Matt Wieters, Austin Hedges, Mike Zunino, or A.J. Pierzynski addition behind the plate (I could get behind that). All of those moves would get the ball rolling for heightened expectations in the year ahead.
     
    There's no denying the Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball. With that, they have a handful of prospects that may be best served in getting the big league club where it needs to be. Nick Gordon, Jorge Polanco, Kohl Stewart, and maybe even a Stephen Gonsalves type are all players that could be best utilized by Minnesota in upgrading their current roster. While the talent for those players would be missed, waiting on them to contribute at the highest level may not be the best strategy.
     
    As I noted prior to the end of the season, Terry Ryan has proved adept in the trade market over the past two seasons, and that bodes will for this winter. There's no denying that the Twins can't afford to stand pat though, and making bold moves should be something that the organization explores.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    Following the 2014 Major League Baseball season, Ron Gardenhire was removed from his duties as manager of the Minnesota Twins. Following a fourth straight 90 loss campaign, management decided a change was necessary. Paul Molitor was brought in, Gardy was given a humidor, and that was that. Over the course of this season though, it's became apparent Gardenhire has the itch again, and he may be back in the dugout as soon as 2016.
     
    During the season, and while reports flooded from Detroit suggesting Brad Ausmus would be done at the end of the year, Gardenhire was named the likely candidate. Those rumors fizzled as quickly as they began, but the dream is not dead for the longtime Twins skipper. Yesterday, reports surfaced suggesting that Gardenhire would indeed interview with the San Diego Padres.
     
    After spending a boatload of money this offseason, and multiple big splashes over the winter, the Padres faded hard. Owning just a 74-88 record while finishing fourth in the National League West, expectations were not met. The Padres were 18 games behind the division winning Dodgers, and their prized acquisitions generally fell flat.
    Looking to revive a roster highlighted by the Upton brothers, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris, and Craig Kimbrel, A.J. Preller wants someone else in charge. At this point, Gardenhire is simply a candidate in the mix, but should things come to fruition, there's plenty to suggest he may be in over his head.
     
    With the Twins, Gardenhire compiled a 1068-1039 record. He grabbed six American League Central division titles, and he pushed teams to win over 90 games five times in his 13 year career. It's what Gardenhire didn't do that has him looking suspect as a National League manager however.
     
    It's easy to point at the 6-21 postseason record and the fact a Gardenhire team only advanced out of the first round once, but the problem runs deeper. Looking at the structure of the National League, the coaching ability of the former Twins manager may come under scrutiny. Never heralded as a great game manager, the intricacies of the double switch, bunt situations, bullpen management, and analytical understanding are all things Gardenhire will face as uphill battles.
     
    With his track record, it's hard to suggest that Gardenhire wouldn't be a great managerial candidate for a team to seek out. What is easy to suggest though is that the team looking for Gardenhire's wisdom should come within the realm of the designated hitter, and the American League, where Gardenhire has already made his stamp.
     
    Preller is no doubt wanting to turn his 2015 mess around, and while Ron Gardenhire is a great guy and a good manager, he's probably not the best fit in San Diego. Gardy should get back in the dugout, but unless he wants another stain on his career numbers to match his postseason record, steering clear of the National League is a must.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    The Twins Way, it's a moniker that has been thrown around Twins Territory for years. Often synonymous with feelings of angst, disgust, or displeasure, the Twins Way is more mocked than it is celebrated. Whether it exists or not, the Twins Way may be more in line with the current trajectory of another franchise than it is given credit for. That other franchise won 97 games in 2015, and plays in the National League Wild Card game this season.
     
    That other franchise, the Chicago Cubs.
     
    Back in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, the Chicago Cubs ended a seven year drought with their impressive 2015. The last time Chicago had a winning season, their record was 83-78. A lot has changed within the organization since then. Theo Epstein, one of the greatest minds in the sport, is in the front office, and Joe Maddon is now leading from the dugout. Looking drastically different as well, is the personnel on the field.
     
    Having strung together losing seasons, the Cubs have constructed one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. Players like Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Addison Russell have graduated from it. They're at the big league level now pacing a very talented team. Also, additions of players like Jon Lester have helped to bolster a rotation that touts a deserving Cy Young candidate in Jake Arrieta.
     
    A far cry from the losing seasons of recent memory, Epstein has put together a top tier club through trades, drafts, and signings. In doing so, he's traveled through a rebuild process that now have the Cubs in position to compete for years to come. That journey begins with the NL Wild Card.
     
    For the Twins, the blueprint is laid, and many of the boxes have already been checked off. Strong drafts, healthy farm system, key international signings, they've all been accomplished. What the Twins have yet to do is make those key trades. While dealing like crazy shouldn't be in the cards, getting the one or two pieces to put them over the top could be the next step.
     
    Minnesota is in a very strong position heading into 2016. The AL Central has turned over, with the Royals, Twins, and Indians being the cream of the crop. Paul Molitor has proven to be a great hire, and his club is blossoming in the best way possible. With a few more big name prospects expected to contribute at a high level as soon as 2016, the Wild Card should be within reach.
     
    Should Terry Ryan be in a position to go get a frontline starter, or upgrade a position of need like catcher, the Twins could be picking up some of the final pieces to the puzzle. Well on their way to following in the footsteps of what has been one of the coolest stories in the National League this season, the Twins can continue to follow the Cubs.
     
    The similarities and parallels between the trajectory and action of the two clubs is somewhat astonishing. From the organizations themselves all the way down to their top prospects in Bryant and Buxton, it's hard to be disappointed with the potential route for the Twins.
     
    Right now, the Twins are enjoying an early offseason after finishing 83-79. Tonight as they tune into the one game playoff in Pittsburgh though, they could be watching themselves a year from now.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2015, the Minnesota Twins exceeding expectations by an immense amount. Expected by man to once again finish at the bottom of the AL Central and hope to stave off 90 losses, first year manager Paul Molitor had his club doing anything but. While ultimately the club came up just shorty of the playoffs, it was a season of much more good than bad.
     
    Going into 2016, the year in which the Twins should begin to be a serious contender once again, understanding who contributed most is important. Taking a look at the roster, it's time for you 2015 grades to be handed out. Sticking mostly to 25 man roster guys (with a few exceptions), here we go:
     
    Catchers:
     
    Kurt Suzuki (C-)
     
    Suzuki headed into 2015 fresh off of a stellar 2014 season. An All Star and recipient of a shiny contract extension, the bar needed to be reached was set incredibly high. Unfortunately, Suzuki reverted back to what he's been in the big leagues, a run of the mill veteran catcher. Owning a -0.1 fWAR on the season, Suzuki was a defensive liability (throwing out an MLB worst 15% of base stealers), and he did little at the plate. He'll be back in 2016, but he has some serious improvement to work on.
     
    Chris Herrmann (D)
     
    It's hard to fault a guy like Herrmann for being on a big league roster. He doesn't belong there, and it's indicative of the Twins catching issue. He isn't anything special behind the plate, and his .146/.214/.272 slash line across 45 games was pathetic. Crazy enough, he produced a higher fWAR (0.1) than Kurt Suzuki in 2015.
     
    First Base
     
    Joe Mauer ©
     
    If you've yet to gather it yet, a C is being used as the middle ground, and that's exactly where Joe Mauer was in 2015. Owning a 0.3 fWAR, he was just above replacement level for the 2015 Twins. The power numbers were up, but everything else was down, and he's here to stay. Forget the contract (it doesn't matter at this point), Minnesota needs Mauer to replicate his success with RISP across a few more situations in 2016. His .309 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the lowest of his career, but his 29.2 hard hit percentage is probably a large part of the culprit there.
     
    Second Base
     
    Brian Dozier (B+)
     
    While we've reached into the B tier for the first time, this grade should have been even higher. Dozier looked like a legitimate MVP candidate on the way to his first All Star game, and then the second half came. For the second year in a row, he's collapsed down the stretch, and it was a massive detriment to the Twins playoff hopes. In total though, Dozier owned a 3.4 fWAR and his 28 homers were a new career high. 2016 needs to be a more consistent and full season from Dozier if the Twins are going to make October noise.
     
    Shortstop
     
    Eduardo Escobar (
     
    The Twins had faith in Danny Santana despite him being primed for regression. When everything hit the fan in the field, Escobar was there to pick things up. He carried the club offensively in September, and made any notion of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly. Earning the spot for the foreseeable future, Escobar compiled a 1.5 fWAR in just 127 games. No longer just a utility man, the Twins continue to cash in on Francisco Liriano's return.
     
    Eduardno Nunez (C+)
     
    A guy that could have been a DFA candidate prior to the season, Nunez actually came up big for the Twins. Providing positional flexibility, he also brought the lumber more often than not. In limited at bats, he hit .282/.327/.431 with four homers. His 1.1 fWAR was among the Twins leaders, and his inexpensive contract made it all the more enticing.
     
    Third Base
     
    Trevor Plouffe (
     
    For the second season in a row, Plouffe has improved as a whole. Likely a late-peaking player, Plouffe should be in line for a new contract this offseason. Whether or not the sides can come to a deal would seem another story. Plouffe followed up his 3.6 fWAR 2014 with a 2.5 fWAR this season. He set career highs in games, runs, RBI, and hits. Another solid season for a player the Twins once viewed as reaching the end of his rope.
     
    Miguel Sano (A-)
     
    Somewhat out of whack by playing only a portion of the year, it's hard to overvalue the production that the slugger gave the Twins. 2.0 fWAR, 18 homers, and 52 RBI in just 80 games, a full season would have been unreal. The strikeout numbers are likely going to set a Twins record (possibly as soon as next season), but his hard hit rate (43.2%) makes him incredibly dangerous each time he steps in the box. Whether he DH's for the next couple of years or not, Sano is already an incredible asset in Minnesota.
     
    Outfield
     
    Aaron Hicks (B-)
     
    Making a monumental leap forward (as I'd suggested he would), Hicks became a regular for the Twins this season. Figuring things out at the plate, and continuing to be a defensive stud, he produced a 1.5 fWAR. Hicks will likely move to right field when Byron Buxton is ready to take over full time, but his outlook for the future has shifted. Once seeming like a lost cause, it would now appear he could be a legitimate 20-20 guy.
     
    Eddie Rosario (B+)
     
    With the other big names making debuts for the Twins in 2015, Rosario tends to get lost in the crowd. However, he put together a season worthy of ROY consideration on his own. His 2.3 fWAR was earned through his ridiculous defensive ability in left (both assists and DRS ranking among MLB's best), and his free swinging tendency. On base issues are still there, and he's going to need to strike out less in the future, but it was a great start for the Puerto Rican.
     
    Torii Hunter (C+)
     
    Hunter's grade is somewhat difficult to quantify for the Twins. He provided an immeasurable asset in the clubhouse, but was relatively mediocre on the diamond. His power played at times, but his dismal August was unfortunate. He picked things up in September, but there's no denying he was a defensive liability throughout the season. Hunter will be welcomed back by the Twins in 2016 if he wants in; I'm not sure he should be.
     
    Byron Buxton (C-)
     
    In his first 46 games at the big league level, Buxton was actually worht -0.5 fWAR. Coming almost entirely from his struggles at the plate, this season was more about growth than anything for Buxton. Now with an offseason to prepare for what he saw, expect 2016 to showcase more of the elite tools we've heard about. Showing off plus defense, and a better approach to conclude the season, Buxton's future remains bright.
     
    Shane Robinson ©
     
    Brought in as a fourth outfielder prior to some of the farm graduations taking place, Robinson absolutely did his job this season. He provided the Twins with outfield depth, and even hit for the first few months. He played above replacement level (0.2 fWAR) and was exactly what Minnesota expected of him.
     
    Rotation
     
    Phil Hughes (C+)
     
    After an impressive first season with the Twins, Hughes was bound to take steps backwards this season. He continued to walk no one, but he also struck out batters at a much slower clip. Allowing what was trending towards (if not for DL time) a career high in home runs given up, Hughes has plenty to work on in the year ahead.
     
    Ervin Santana (A-)
     
    The suspension shot Santana's season down before it began, but once he was back on track, the Twins big payday looked great. Spare a couple rocky starts early, it was Santana down the stretch that looked every bit the part of an ace. Striking out batters at an impressive clip, while owning a sub 3.00 ERA across his final handful of starts, the Twins have to be excited about the top of their rotation in 2016.
     
    Tyler Duffey (A)
     
    After being tagged by the best offense in baseball, Duffey looked like a major league vet. He was striking batters out, he wasn't allowing runs, and his curveball was confusing major league hitters. Forcing himself into the rotation discussion for 2016, Duffey's debut was much more impressive than could have been expected.
     
    Tommy Milone (
     
    As somewhat of a swingman, Milone's role became more defined as the season went on. Becoming more of a reliable starter and more entrenched in the starting five, Milone was able to settle in late. He put up his fair share of clunkers, but he should be looking at an arbitration pay day from the Twins.
     
    Kyle Gibson (A-)
     
    It's hard to suggest that Kyle Gibson did anything but take a massive step forward in 2015. He was one of the Twins most consistent pitchers, and he was able to come up big when needed most. he set career highs across the board, and when the dust settled, ended up being the Twins starter called upon most by Paul Molitor. He may be trade bait going forward, but if not, he's going to help solidify what is a much improved rotation.
     
    Mike Pelfrey (B-)
     
    More often than not the subject of Twins pitching vitriol, Pelfrey was an integral part of this team. While he put up his fair share of clunkers, and he wasn't good on the road, it was often Pelfrey in big spots that kept the Twins afloat. Finally producing a season worthy of the money Minnesota had paid him, Pelfrey can enter free agency owning an ERA in the top third of the American League in 2015.
     
    Ricky Nolasco (D+)
     
    It's hard to grade a guy that can't stay on the field, but hopefully the Twins take care of that problem this offseason. Nolasco put together a nice stretch of starts prior to his ankle injury, but then missed the majority of the season. He returned in the final week and looked the part of a bad pitcher he has been for the vast majority of his Twins tenure.
     
    Bullpen
     
    Blaine Boyer (B+)
     
    The season is over, so we can now take a breath on Boyer. His ERA was significantly better than his FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggested it should have been, at this point it doesn't matter however. A lottery ticket out of spring training, Boyer was a low cost option that gave the Twins way more than they could have bargained for.
     
    Neal Cotts ©
     
    Acquired for next to nothing from the Brewers, the Twins can't be too disappointed with the production. His numbers with Molitor's club were less than impressive, and I'm not sure he should be in the fold heading into 2016. Either way though, Cotts was markedly average in every way.
     
    Brian Duensing (D)
     
    Once again, the Twins offered Duensing arbitration over the offseason. Once again, Duensing proved to be the pitcher that doesn't miss enough bats, and provides very little out of the pen. His ERA was ugly, and his peripherals did little to help an already bad Twins bullpen. It would seem to be an egregious mistake if Duensing is asked to come back in 2016.
     
    Casey Fien (C-)
     
    Fien has been bumped from his setup role by the Twins, but still remains one of the better arms in their pen. That's indicative of the state in which the bullpen was in, as well as Fien's own struggles. He had an ok year as a whole, but he blew up big too often, and generally was hard to trust down the stretch. He'll be back in 2016, but needs to be a part of a better core.
     
    J.R. Graham (D+)
     
    Hidden and then over-exposed, Graham followed the tumultuous path of a Rule 5 draft pick. In a bad bullpen Molitor and Neil Allen had little choice but to deploy Graham at times. He held his own for the most part, but looked the part of a guy that had never pitched above Double-A. He'll head to Triple-A in 2016, and his next big league experience should be a different story. More beneficial to him than the Twins, Graham's experience this season should help his development long term.
     
    Kevin Jepsen (A)
     
    You probably can't overstate just how valuable Jepsen was the Minnesota. He came in at a critical time and gave the Twins everything they could have hoped for and then some. Saving games, pitching in high leverage, and being next to a sure thing in the 9th, Jepsen was a massive asset down the stretch. Under team control in 2016, Jepsen's acquisition was one of the best moves Terry Ryan has made in a while.
     
    Trevor May (A-)
     
    Converted from a starter to help a bullpen in desperate need, May was even better in relief. He ended up owning the 8th inning and operating as the Twins setup man. Giving the bullpen a strikeout punch with heightened velocity, May looked the part of a lock down reliever. He's going to be brought into spring training as a starter, but there's no guarantee that's the role in which he leaves it.
     
    Ryan O'Rourke (C-)
     
    Initially called upon to be a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), O'Rourke was quickly asked to do more. In a bad bullpen, having specialized arms is farm from an awarded luxury. While having to pitch in less than advantageous situations, he was exposed and looked the part of a minor leaguer out of place.
     
    Glen Perkins (
     
    Much like Dozier above, this is a grade that should be so much higher for the Twins opening day closer. Perkins was lights out prior to the All Star Break, and earned another trip to the game. Following that point though, he was nothing short of horrendous. Blown saves, DL stints, and ineffective pitching, Perkins hurt the Twins by continuing to trot out to the mound. Had the bullpen been in a better place, Minnesota would have been better off telling Perkins to head into the offseason about a month early.
     
    Michael Tonkin ©
     
    Tonkin was jerked around by the Twins more than any other minor leaguer this season. Called up and down multiple times, eventually pitching in 26 games, he has the ability to stay. Ending with a 3.47 ERA, he should be given a shot out of the gate in 2016, and likely provides a higher ceiling than some of the options that Molitor had at his disposal this season.
     
    For more from Off the Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    By all respective measures, the Minnesota Twins 2015 season has come to an end. Despite a very exciting month of September, and a Wild Card playoff chase that gave Twins Territorians something to tune into, Paul Molitor's squad has reached the end. While 2015 is no doubt a resounding success given the expectations, it remains 2016 that is Minnesota's goal. Unfortunately, two massive question marks remain.
     
    Going into 2016, the Twins roster will prominently feature a handful of high ceiling and widely talented youngsters. Beyond Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, there will be contributions expected from many others. At the top though, it will be the Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier types that are once again expected to carry that squad. The problem is, the task may be more than they can handle.
     
    For the second year in a row, both Perkins and Dozier went from two of the Twins best players, to some of their absolute worst.
     
    In the first half of the season, Dozier looked the part of an MVP candidate. Prior to the break, the first time All Star slashed .256/.328/.513 with 26 doubles, 19 home runs, 50 runs batted in, and 67 runs scored. The second half being a different story, Dozier slashed just .209/.280/.361 adding just 13 doubles, nine homers, 26 runs batted in, and 34 runs. To say he had fallen off would be putting it lightly.
     
    The tale of two seasons for Dozier was widely apparent in his ever increasing strikeout rate. Being a high on base percentage player, his lower batting average never should have been questioned. In 2015 though, it became a problem. Having never struck out more than 129 times in a season, Dozier's new Twins record of 147 strikeouts (and counting), combined with just 61 walks, became a problem. Whether conditioning is to blame or not, for a second straight year, the star second basemen put together only one complete half.
     
    And then there's Perkins.
     
    Unlike Dozier, Perkins can more easily have outcomes directly tied to him. In the first half, he was flawless. Saving 28 straight games while compiling a 1.21 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a paltry .188/.217/.246 slash line, the Minnesota native secured a second straight All Star game appearance. That's when everything went south.
    In his first post All Star appearance, Perkins took his first blown save of the season (and inevitable probability).
     
    However, on July 25 against the Yankees, he served up home runs to Alex Rodriguez (his third of the night) and John Ryan Murphy, in a game that would be the turning point in his 2015. From the break on, Perkins saved just four games, blew three, and owned a 7.32 ERA. Opposing hitters relished at the opportunity to hit against a guy allowing a .360/.394/.674 slash line.
     
    Looking back as the Twins will miss the playoffs by just a few games, it was Perkins direct influence in the ninth that could have them in a different place. In a team game with the outcome determine at multiple different points, that's not a load Perkins should shoulder on his own, but it's one he did nothing to help. Spending time recovering from injury, the Twins closer came back ineffective and a detriment to the club.
     
    Hoping Molitor would do something different is somewhat of a tricky situation. In regards to Dozier, the direct tie to wins and losses is not apparent. He gave the Twins little at the plate down the stretch, but remained an asset in the field. Hoping the slump would be busted eventually, he needed to be out there every night. With Perkins, the story is much different. The ineffectiveness was apparent for quite some time, and even worse when returning from injury. Shutting him down weeks before the season's end could have spared Minnesota a few desperately needed victories.
     
    For the second year in a row, both players faded down the stretch. Last offseason, Dozier vowed to work on conditioning to hopefully stave off this exact outcome. For Perkins, the future remains murkier. When at his best, he's an elite closer and among the top in the American League. On Friday night, he was at his worst, cost the Twins their final opportunity, and then lacked the leadership to own it in the clubhouse following the final pitch.
     
    In 2016, Paul Molitor and the Twins will have to count on both players to be key contributors once again, the question remains, will he be able to?
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    The Twins are in the midst of a heated race for the final AL Wild Card spot, and while they are running out of games, getting to this point has been a heck of a journey. Having suffered through four straight 90 loss campaigns, being back on the positive side of things is a nice change. Winning isn't new to this franchise however, and the most interesting aspect may be just how the winning takes place.
     
    2010 saw the Twins compile a 94-68 record under Ron Gardenhire, good enough for first in the AL Central. Fueled by an incredible 48-26 in the second half, that club rolled into the playoffs with momentum on their side. The record wasn't the only difference though, as Gardenhire's 25 was of a different breed as well.
     
    Valued in order by fWAR, the 2010 Twins were led by Joe Mauer (5.0), Justin Morneau (4.9), Jim Thome (3.0), Orlando Hudson (3.0), and Denard Span (2.6). In total, 11 offensive players have fWAR seasons above 1.0. The rotation was filled out by five double-digit game winners in Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey, and Gardenhire had a capable pen.
     
    Looking at the construction of the roster as a whole, that team was filled by a handful of veterans performing in or after their prime. Thome brought spark to the Twins while Mauer and Morneau carried the club. Span and Hudson remained assets, and the playoffs were made as an execution of the expectations laid out prior to the season.
     
    Fast forward to where we are now. This Twins club currently has 82 wins, with just four games left. By fWAR, the club's top performers are Brian Dozier (3.6), Trevor Plouffe (2.4), Eddie Rosario (2.3), Miguel Sano (2.2), and Aaron Hicks (1.5). On the season, the 2015 Twins have just seven players with fWAR totals over 1.0 (which would add just Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez to the fold). Among the final rotation, only two pitchers (Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes) have double digit win totals.
     
    There's little room for argument that the current Twins squad holds a candle to the one that last made the playoffs. Forget the fact that the playoffs aren't yet a reality, and 90 wins certainly won't be. The talent discrepancy between the two squads is apparent on paper alone. What is also very simple to see however, is what was and is next for both teams.
     
    Four years of turmoil came out of the last playoff squad, with the most likely outcome this time around being at least four years of playoff runs. A younger organization filled with high profile prospects trending in the right direction is generally a recipe for good things to come. Comparing directly doesn't do wonders for this team, but there's no doubt it owns the edge in the future trends category.
     
    It's easy to see the Twins current team and the one from the last playoff run aren't in the same boat, but there's little doubt this one is going places soon. Knowing how much fun this run has been, and that it's just the tip of the iceberg, it's best to enjoy what was, and be excited about what will be.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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