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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    70-92, 66-96, 66-96, 63-99, those are the records of the Minnesota Twins over the past four seasons. At the end of 2014, Terry Ryan fired longtime manager Ron Gardenhire, and the Twins appeared determined to make a turnaround. While just a month into 2015, comments suggesting the Twins being lackluster and bad continue to be tossed around by the uninformed fan. It's time to realize the suggestion sounds clueless, and this club is proving you couldn't be more wrong.
     
    As things stand, the Minnesota Twins are currently 13-12 on the year. They are sitting in third place in the AL Central and are just 3.5 games out of first place in the division. After experiencing a -20 run differential and starting the season off on a 1-6 note, the club battled through a divisional tilted schedule in April, and is ready to make some waves.
     
    Despite having an atrocious pitching staff, and less than ideal outfield defense in 2014, the Twins were amongst the best in major leagues when it came to scoring runs. Thanks to uncharacteristic performances from Kurt Suzuki and Danny Santana, Minnesota was buoyed by less than predictable contributors. In 2015, the outfield defense remains a work in progress, the pitching isn't yet top-tier, and the offense has clicked. While the formula sounds the same, the result is trending in a completely opposite direction.
     
    Twins teams of recent years haven't watched their records race towards 90 losses until the heat of the summer begins. As the season progresses, the Twins have generally dealt with declining play and injuries that have forced them into the doldrums of the AL Central. This time around, the 2015 version isn't waiting for the bottom to drop out, but instead, for it to rise to the surface.
     
    Regression was to be expected on offense this season with a handful of players. As noted, Suzuki and Santana were key contributors a year ago, and likely would not repeat their performances. Santana struggled early and has since rebounded to a certain extent, while Suzuki continues to scuffle at the plate. Despite their less than ideal contributions, the Twins have seen positives from a handful of other players. Joe Mauer looks himself once again, Trevor Plouffe is off to a blazing start, and the lineup as a whole has held its own.
     
    Outside of what is happening at the major league level, the Twins have some significant positives when it comes to depth. Top prospect Byron Buxton has bounced back from a slow start and has been absolutely on fire of late. While he still isn't likely an option until late summer at the earliest, Aaron Hicks has looked great for Triple-A Rochester. Missing out on the Opening Day roster, Josmil Pinto has positioned himself well in Rochester as well, and has turned his bat into a real asset. On the mound, Alex Meyer has struggled more often than not, but the Twins have plenty of options. Tommy Milone is a quality arm now on the farm, and he's joined by a lights out Taylor Rogers. Jose Berrios has continued to impress in the early going as well. No matter what way you cut it, the Twins depth from within this season is in a great place.
     
    Previous losing seasons have been bookended by periods of competence and an unavoidable bottom falling out. This season, the Twins have the security blankets to make sure their current level of play remains at a consistent level throughout the season. Adding in prospects along the way, as well as the eventual addition of Ervin Santana, Minnesota will continue to turn heads.
     
    It has become time to put the past four season of futility in the past and stop referring to this current club as a band of misfits. They've played their way into relevance, and the future prospectus is trending in an upward direction. Understand that this team isn't cut from the same cloth, and be better for it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are now into May, and they have completed the first month of their 2015 Major League Baseball season. After starting off on an ugly note against the Detroit Tigers, the team has settled in a played competitive baseball on a nightly basis (as should have been the assumption). Just two games below .500, there's no doubt this team has left some wins on the table. There's plenty of encouraging notes as we head into the summer months however.
    At 10-12, the Twins head into May in sole possession of the third spot in the AL Central division standings. Ahead of both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians, the Twins trail the division leading Kansas City Royals by five games. Currently in the midst of a series with Chicago, they have an opportunity to distance themselves further from the bottom of the Central. Pitching and defense have been the plaguing issues in the early going, but there's plenty of reason to believe both areas continue to improve.
    Looking at some key players on this Twins team, early returns are actually in a better place than they were a year ago. After setting a major league record in regards to BB/9 in 2014, Phil Hughes has actually started better in 2015.
     
    14: 5.14 ERA 26 K 6 BB 16 ER
    15: 4.55 ERA 26 K 2 BB 16 ER
     
    In fact, the biggest detriment to Hughes in the early going has been the lack of offense he has been afforded by his team. He's 0-4 in his first five games, despite rarely being the reason for those losses (in case it needed to be hammered home more that wins are a terrible stat for starting pitchers).
     
    First 5 starts for Phil Hughes 14: Offense produced 30 total runs
    15: Offense produced 11 total runs
     
    On the offensive side, there is no more polarizing player for the Twins than Joe Mauer. Despite being knocked consistently for a contract that he signed as a catcher in the Metrodome, Mauer has continued to produce for the Twins. Dealing with the lingering effects from a concussion and an oblique injury in 2014, it was apparent he wasn't himself. Although it's only been one month into the 2015 season, it looks like the former batting champ is returning to form just fine.
     
    Joe Mauer in April: 14: .276/.388/.337 1 HR 6 RBI 28 K
    15: .318/.392/.412 13 RBI 14 K
     
    Looking at some of the issues that have plagued the Twins in the early going, it's pretty difficult to look past the bullpen pitching and outfield defense. The latest debacle for the bullpen came in Hughes' last start in which a 7-3 Minnesota lead was squandered after the 5th inning, allowing the Tigers to grab the win by a tally of 10-7. Terry Ryan took fliers on low ceiling veterans such as Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer, and Tim Stauffer to round out his bullpen and so far the results haven't been good.
     
    Duensing has been a mainstay with the Twins, mainly relied upon as being a lefty arm out of the pen. Although currently on the DL (he's scheduled to return Saturday May 2), he owns a 7.36 ERA. The only pen arm worse than Duensing has been Stauffer. Throwing to an 8.38 ERA allowing 10 ER on 16 H in just 9.2 innings, it's been a train wreck from the get go. With players coming back to the fold following injury, it would appear Stauffer's time with the club could be coming to a close. Boyer started the season on an ugly note, but has since turned it around currently owning a 3.65 ERA. His .298 AVG against isn't promising, but for now he's hanging on at least.
    While getting to the 9th inning has been a chore for the Twins, their man in the closer role has been lights out. After dealing with injuries to end 2014 and in spring training, Glen Perkins has looked sharp in the early going. His shiny 1.00 ERA and six saves make him once again look like one of the best closers in the American League. Behind the pitching, the Twins have faltered in the outfield.
     
    Employing bats in the form of Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter on the corners, their defense has taken a hit. With neither hitting consistently yet (Arcia .250/.310/.365) Hunter .205/.244/.315) the lack of ability in the field has been more prevalent. Combining that with a lackluster Jordan Schafer roaming center, the Twins have watched more circus play in the grass than they have seen any bit of spectacular ability or runs saved.
    Considering where the Twins have issues however, the club is actually in a great place. Roster moves should be coming soon, and most of them should provide an immediate uptick in productivity. With the Tigers and Royals both scorching hot, there's no doubt that they will cool off at some point during the summer. Minnesota is in a good position, and remains in striking distance.
    If Paul Molitor can continue to work with and develop this club, they have the ability to turn some heads as the season draws on. Minnesota needs to hang around .500, and know that they have the ability to move on up as key moves are made throughout the organization.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins played one of the worst baseball games I have witnessed at the professional level for quite some time. With Phil Hughes leaving after five innings due to an injury, Tim Stauffer came on to take over. Handed a 7-3 lead, he promptly allowed two solo home runs (giving up three total runs), while getting just two outs. Casey Fien later allowed three more earned runs before leaving with an injury, and the Twins fell by a score of 10-7. Losing centerfield Jordan Schafer to injury in the game as well, the Twins looked to be hurting in every aspect. The assumption was that moves would be coming, but the matter now is when.
    Looking at the game yesterday, the Twins watched as their two biggest deficiencies were exploited to an ugly extent. Having a below average defense hurt them on multiple occasions. Schafer and Oswaldo Arcia looked inept in the outfield, and a popup fell for a hit in the infield. Following a good start, the bullpen imploded giving up not only the lead, but also seven earned runs on 10 hits in just four innings. There's no doubt that Minnesota gave away a win yesterday, a chance at being a game within .500, and an opportunity for a second consecutive series win. With players like Stauffer and Schafer repeating those types of performances more often than not, Minnesota needs to make some changes.
     
    It appeared initially that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan may have had their hand finally forced. Losing Hughes, Schafer, and Fien all in the same game suggested that some moves would need to be made. For now however, it looks as if all three players should be able to overcome their setbacks in short order and avoid missing time. For the sake of the Twins however, injuries shouldn't dictate a certaint few moves being made.
    Defense has been a problem all year, and it's only going to continue to be an issue. Minnesota has tried Schafer in center for plenty of time, and it's past the period of moving on. Aaron Hicks no doubt was the most sensible option in center for this club out of the gate, and it's time the Twins fix the mistake. Schafer is batting .188.204/.229, by all measurable standards, horrible doesn't being to describe that. Hicks is hitting .288/.385/.485 in Triple-A, and brings a plus level of defense to the field. His mental lapses can't happen, but Molitor can inflict that discipline on him. Shane Robinson makes sense as a fourth outfielder, and he's hit well even in a small sample size. Schafer has worn out his welcome in Minnesota, and Hicks should be up with the big league club within the next couple of weeks.
     
    Despite snagging two hits yesterday, Kennys Vargas is slashing just .183/.246/.250. His power has not shown up, and he's been caught chasing pitches all over the plate. A trip to Triple-A to mash some breaking balls would probably do him well. Offering little at first base defensively, a switch to Trevor Plouffe or Chris Herrmann as the backup wouldn't be a big downgrade. In Rochester, Josmil Pinto continues to pound baseballs, and would immediately add a boost to the Twins lineup. Pinto is slashing .305/.397/.373. On top of that, he's thrown out 2-8 would be base stealers, and has allowed just one passed ball in 14 games. Pinto has little to prove on the farm and should also be with the big league club before the middle of May.
    If Minnesota wants to be able to hang onto leads, a bullpen shakeup is going to be necessary. Rather than continuing to mutter that the club is looking for help, a quick glance at the farm would do the Twins well. Terry Ryan took fliers on Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer likely with the idea he could turn them into something later in the season (a la Sam Fuld). We can see that's not going to happen with Stauffer. His 8.38 ERA is horrid and just keeps climbing. DFA'ing Stauffer sometime soon would probably be the best practice. Boyer has looked sharper of late, and the Twins could still get value out of him if he can continue along that path. It's not a guarantee though, and there shouldn't be much of a leash there either.
     
    The Twins bullpen is currently void of power arms, and the ones they could have taken north are in Triple-A. Michael Tonkin currently owns a 2.45 ERA with Rochester, and is striking out batters at a 12.3 K/9 clip (he is now taking over in the pen for Casey Fien who will hit the DL). Ryan Pressly's 4.50 ERA isn't where you'd like it to be, but it's only been 10 innings. He does however have a 13.5 K/9 and owned a 2.86 ERA for the Twins in 2014. Finally, Lester Oliveros owns a 1.04 ERA with Rochester, and has struck out batters at a ridiculous 17.7 K/9 rate. You could probably throw A.J. Achter into this group as well, and make the argument that all of them are better bullpen options than a handful of the guys the Twins currently are running out there. I'd expect to see at least one of them with the big league club within the next two weeks.
    At the end of the day, it's a sad situation if it ultimately becomes injuries that force the Twins briantrust to make necessary moves. With that in mind however, this team needs to stretch wins in its favor by putting their most competitive lineup on the field each night. Running low-ceiling guys out there hoping they don't get burnt isn't a good practice. It by no means is time for the kids (check out how Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are hitting, the rust needs to come off first), but there's significantly better options in the organization than what the major league team has gone with. Let's get those moves queued up.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    With just one week left to go down in Fort Myers, the Minnesota Twins spring training campaign was winding down. First year manager Paul Molitor was faced with some tough decisions, and of those, the most important revolved around his starting pitching options. Choosing to send Mike Pelfrey to the bullpen, the veteran met the decision with anger, criticism, and some angst. Fast forward a few hours, and the Twins had inserted Pelfrey back into the rotation due to a suspension handed down to free-agent signee Ervin Santana. It looked like a head-scratching move at the time, but a few weeks into the season, Pelfrey has only puzzle with his surprising ability.
    After his first four starts in 2015, Pelfrey owns a 2.25 ERA (by a wide margin, the Twins best mark by a starter), and is 2-0 across his four contests. He owns a 15.3 K%, which ranks as his highest mark as a Twin, and is tied for the highest mark of his career (also owned a 15.3 K% in 2012 with the Mets). He owns the lowest WHIP (1.13) of his career, and his 5.63 K/9 is the second highest mark of his career. Obviously all of those numbers are fun, but it's also fair to note the small sample size. Through just one month of the season, the question now for the Twins and Pelfrey is, can he keep this up?
     
    After making just five starts a season ago, and pitching just 23.2 innings (a mark he has already surpassed in 2014), injury concerns will always loom close for Pelfrey. Wondering whether the ineffectiveness Pelfrey displayed a year ago can be completely attributed to injury, or if he had slipped as a professional is also worth questioning. So far however, the Wichita State alum has had nothing but positive answers.
    Looking for regression, there are some definite warning signs for Pelfrey. Most glaring, an FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) totaling 4.47 suggest that a lackluster Twins defense is to be commended for keeping Big Pelf's ERA so low. On top of a concerning FIP number, Pelfrey has also experienced just a .232 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). That mark is the lowest of his career by a wide margin, with 2014 being the only other time Pelfrey has allowed a sub-.300 BABIP. Both of those statistics have the potential to return towards a mean, which in turn, would make Pelfrey's shiny start to the season take somewhat of a downturn.
     
    It's not all doom and gloom however, as Pelfrey has numbers in his corner this season as well. Having his splitter working well in the early going, Pelfrey has only allowed opposing hitters to bat .209 against him. That mark is the lowest in his career by a wide margin, owning a previous best average against of .268. Looking at batted ball percentages, Pelfrey has only surrendered 12.7% of his hits as line drives. Typically the easiest to fall in as a hit and create damage, the low line drive percentage is just the second time (excluding the five game 2014 season) in his career that he has held that percentage below 20%. Also, in allowing his defense to help him, Pelfrey has gotten opposing batters to hit ground balls 57.7% of the time, just his third time above 50% in his career. Again, although early, it appears that sustainability and regression are evening each other out in the early going.
    Knowing that the Twins have decisions to make with their rotation in regards to Ricky Nolasco, Trevor May, and eventually Alex Meyer and Ervin Santana, Pelfrey has done well to take himself off of the hot seat. I'd still love to see him pitch out of the bullpen at some point if things fall apart, but at least in the early going, the Twins have to be ecstatic about his output. The two-year, $11 million contract hasn't worked out thus far, but the 2015 production has been a nice return for Minnesota.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Through the early part of the season, the Minnesota Twins knew they were going to be without the services of Josmil Pinto. After taking three swings to the back of the head in a spring training game, there's no doubt the time lost due to injury was going to cost him a roster spot. After a largely unimpressive 2014, Pinto needed to earn his way on, and time simply ran out. Knowing that it's his bat the will carry him at the next level, the promotion is coming, but what will it look like when it does?
    Currently, the Twins have a two man catcher rotation with Kurt Suzuki splitting time with Chris Herrmann. Suzuki was signed to an extension a season ago, but even by backup standards, it remains a relatively modest deal. After being a prime candidate for offensive regression, the former Athletics backstop has failed to break the Mendoza Line for much of the season. Hardly a defensive whiz in his own right, it's fair to say that the Twins were hoping for more from Suzuki in 2015.
     
    On days where Suzuki rests, and there haven't been many, Herrmann has slotted in behind the plate. While hitting for a respectable average, he hasn't had the plate appearances to put much weight into his numbers. Serviceable behind the plate, it was just a season ago that neither the Twins nor Herrmann himself saw catcher as his most valuable role to the team.
    Out of the gate in Rochester, Pinto has gotten it done at the plate. Although the power numbers haven't been what the Twins would have hoped, he's hit for average and gotten on base. Behind the plate, he's made strides in both his ball receiving and his controlling of runners on the base paths. It was probably unfair to speculate how long the Twins would go without what would appear to be at least their second best catching option, but it seems as though the door is quickly opening.
     
    With the calendar turning towards the second month of the season, Pinto's role with the big league club should be quickly defined. As has always been the case, his bat should once again prove to be the most valuable asset. The catching situation is something I ran through above, but unlike his comrades, Pinto should see time solely as a hitter through DH at bats. Kennys Vargas has struggled mightily in his second big league season, and as of right now, there doesn't appear to be an end in sight. Whether or not the Twins send Vargas to Rochester with Pinto making the return trip or not, losing at bats is something the switch hitting slugger is now becoming prone to.
    Both Pinto and Vargas being young hitters, confidence remains as one of the most vital aspects to their success. Although Herrmann filling a roster spot isn't ideal, the best practice may be to allow both Pinto and Vargas to use confidence to their advantage. Kennys crushing some Triple-A pitching could ignite the spark, and Josmil employing an already hot bat on a team looking for an offensive jolt would be a nice reward. It would seem fair to argue the Twins are reaching decision making time, and Josmil Pinto's bat is probably going to be at the center of the discussion.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins recently got their second win of the Major League Baseball season, and while it wasn't on the back of an offensive outburst, the run support was enough to get the job done. A stagnant start to the season had Paul Molitor searching for creative ways to get things going. After making a few lineup tweaks, the Twins got back in the win column. The question is, what should we expect going forward.
    In changing around the lineup, the key differences were in swapping spots between Torii Hunter and Brian Dozier. After batting leadoff once, Dozier went from his traditional two hole, back into the cleanup spot. Hunter then moved out of the cleanup role, and into the two spot in the lineup, one he hit out of often during his days in Detroit. It's hard to extrapolate much from early returns (Dozier went 0-2 with a sac fly, while Hunter was 1-3 on Wednesday), but at least half of the change makes sense.
     
    Hitting from the second spot in the lineup relatively often for the Tigers, Torii posted a .295/.327/.456 slash line across his two years in Detroit. He smashed 34 home runs while driving in 167 runs. His 49 walks in comparison to 202 strikeouts leave a bit to be desired, but are serviceable nonetheless. The bigger question mark of the equation is no doubt how Dozier projects as a cleanup hitter.
    Last season, the Twins second basemen hit 23 home runs (a career high). With extreme pull tendencies, there has been plenty made of Dozier potentially exerting extra effort to get around on, and drive the baseball. Now hitting from the cleanup role, a traditional power spot, that effort could be multiplied even further leaving Dozier susceptible to problems covering the outer half of the plate.
     
    On the flip side, Dozier has tended upwards when it comes to power potential (18 HR in 2013 followed by 23 in 2014). Spending most of that time batting second in Ron Gardenhire lineups, Dozier's longballs were generally wasted and produced seasons of only 66 and 71 RBI respectively. Working out of the fourth spot in the Twins lineup, Dozier will likely lose out on extra at bats, but could provide benefit to the Twins in that he should be hitting with more runners on base. Until things play out further, it's probably best to leave Dozier's status as cleanup hitter to be determined.
    Looking at traditional options for the cleanup role, the Twins find themselves doing more wishful thinking than anything. At the major league level, Kennys Vargas is probably the ideal candidate in theory. However, batting just .208/.269/.250 on the season, after hitting .228/.291/.446 in September last year, there's plenty of reason he isn't in the role. Oswaldo Arcia has been overmatched more often than not in 2015, and Josmil Pinto is still down in Triple-A. While Miguel Sano could see time in the cleanup role for the Twins in 2015, he's currently in the midst of a 3-21 slump batting just .143/.333/.286.
     
    If and when Molitor decides to shake things up again, it probably should start at the top. There was no reason to believe that Danny Santana was going to be a .300 hitter this season, his .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last season was simply not sustainable. The decline probably could have also been somewhat expected. A guy that doesn't walk often (just 19 in 405 AB in 2014) and strikes out far too much (98 in 405 AB in 2014) is recipe for disaster at the top of the lineup. Santana has yet to walk in 2015 and has struck out 28.6% of the time this season (a career high). Also, for a guy that utilizes speed to such a high extent, Santana's 40% fly ball rate in 2015 is not a great start either.
    Conventional wisdom, and comments previously provided by Molitor, suggest that the Twins are against the idea of Joe Mauer batting leadoff. While he may be their best option (.382 OBP since 2013), he lacks the speed Molitor seems to crave at the top of the lineup. Of course Santana can't steal first base, and a shake up may need to take place there should things continue.
    Regardless of how the lineup evolves over the course of the season, it's somewhat comforting to see Molitor open to new ideas. Rather than quickly abandoning them, figuring out how to stretch results from this lineup through different tactics is going to be a key process for the Twins new skipper. Doing more with less in something that Minnesota will have to count on if they want 2015 to look differently than the past four seasons.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Today marks the Minnesota Twins home opener. A game that represents the first sellout of Target Field in quite some time, may be more a letdown than originally expected. With no Ervin Santana, and a team that owns a 1-5 record on the season, expectations have already plummeted. In the early going however, the Twins have seen less innovation and more of the same from Paul Molitor, and it hasn't been a good thing.
     
    When hired, Molitor was regarded as an elite baseball mind, and someone that embraced what the game had transitioned into. While not a full blown sabermetrics guy, he appeared to be someone that would be up to date on any new way to win. Hired from within, Molitor seemed to buck the trend of the Terry Ryan cloth and bring a fresh bit of insight to the bench. Thus far, the Twins have seen anything but, and their record struggles to deter from more of the same as well.
     
    Down in Fort Myers, Molitor mentioned being open to the idea of batting Joe Mauer (a high on base percentage hitter) second, while moving Brian Dozier (a power guy) into the third spot. This happened once during spring training, and has yet to take shape since. With Torii Hunter batting in the cleanup spot, the Twins have struggled to get much going from the bulk of their order, and the run production hasn't been there.
     
    Over the weekend, the Twins decided to place starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco on the disabled list. The move cleared up a spot on the active roster. It was announced that Trevor May would be called up to pitch the home opener on Monday, but as a starter, he didn't need to be added back until the end of the series with the White Sox. Instead of calling up a bullpen arm that could have helped the club in Chicago, the Twins added Trevor May immediately on Saturday. Instead of having a fresh bullpen arm (because no doubt the pen had been taxed in Detroit with starters only going just over 12 innings in three games) Minnesota had May on the bench sitting in a windbreaker.
     
    On top of that move, Eduardo Escobar headed to Minnesota and missed a game due to the birth of his child. The Twins failed to call up a bench bat in his place for the day, and Jordan Schafer was forced to look overmatched against David Robertson to end the game on Saturday (while Josmil Pinto hit a 2 run walk-off home run for Rochester).
     
    Really what it all adds up to is just a curious set of circumstances. While the Twins touted a changing of the guard for much of the offseason, Molitor has more often than not deferred. Whether Ron Gardenhire or Molitor is on the bench, it would seem hard to differentiate at this point. It's probably still to early to be grabbing pitchforks, but there's no doubt that a change of thinking needs to be implemented. For the Twins to accomplish heights they have not in recent years, a shift in the thought process needs to take place. It may start above Molitor at the Terry Ryan level, but there's no doubt on field execution needs some fine tuning.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins completed their second game of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. While they are now 0-2, after 1/81 of the season, it appears as if a large contingent of the fan base is already waving the white flag. Considering the stretch that is the Major League Baseball season, two games is representative of a very small sample size. In football, it may equate to one drive, or basketball, a possession. With that notion, joining the knuckle-dragging contingent suggesting doom seems premature. That being said, there are some definite concerns in the early going, it just appears they are misplaced.
     
    Much has been made about the offensive drought the Twins are currently going through. In 18 innings this season, they have yet to score a run, and even worse, have not reached third base. Dating back to 2014, it's been 24 innings (all against these Detroit Tigers) in which the Twins have failed to cross the plate. Again, while problematic, offensive issues aren't where concern should lie for this club. After all, a season ago virtually the same lineup was 7th in the majors when it came to scoring runs. However, yesterday's game highlighted some significant problem areas for the Twins.
     
    First and foremost, Ricky Nolasco. I still remain of the belief that Nolasco will make good on at least of portion of what was the largest Twins free agent contract handed out at the time. The unfortunate reality is that it should have been Phil Hughes, and not Nolasco, that was the priority in the first place last year. Nolasco was a relatively average pitcher for the Marlins and that was in the National League. Expecting him to be a top of the rotation guy in the American League also seemed to be a longshot, and it's biting the Twins hard now. Today, Nolasco was sent back to Minnesota for an MRI. After pitching through injury last season and doing more damage than good, it's no doubt a positive thing that he's getting it figured out early in the process. While even a healthy Nolasco is an unproven commodity, a hurt one is not a good thing at all. The Twins are in a position to handle a rotation in flux with names like Alex Meyer and Trevor May, but there's no doubt a sense of concern with an injury out of the gate.
     
    Moving on from the starting pitching and to the bullpen, the Twins weakness was already exposed. As Brandon Warne noted on this week's episode of Twins Tuesday, the bullpen is neither good nor interesting. Boasting a handful of journeyman types with low velocities and even lower ceilings, bullpen pitching is going to be an issue for the Twins until they start to call up some of the kids. Through 18 innings of baseball, the Twins have gone to the bullpen for four different pitchers, and only one has yet to give up a run. That pitcher is J.R. Graham, who prior to this season, hadn't pitched above the Double-A level. Of the 16 innings the Twins have pitched (the Tigers haven't needed to bat in the 9th yet), seven of the innings have been worked by bullpen pitchers. At nearly a 50% rate, an already overmatched bullpen is set to be overworked as well.
     
    Rounding out the issues the Twins have faced in the early going is one that was highlighted coming into the season, outfield defense. Although during the first game, issues weren't as prevalent as game two, the uncertainty has reared it's head. Yesterday's game featured multiple misplayed balls by centerfielder Jordan Schafer (one of which he simply fell over trying to field), an error (though it wasn't recorded as such) by Torii Hunter, and a circus experiment on a catch made by Oswaldo Arcia. The corner outfielders are no doubt there because of their bats (and to be fair, Hunter did make a nice catch against the wall). In center however, Schafer was somehow viewed as a better option than Aaron Hicks of Eddie Rosario. What it all amounts to is that Paul Molitor will be faced with some early decisions.
     
    Three games in, Eduardo Escobar is making his first start in left field. Arcia has struggled at the plate, looking overmatched in the early going. Schafer is being run out there again today and Hunter is no doubt here to stay. As Schafer and Shane Robinson continue to provide little value, the Twins will need to hope a quick start by Hicks or Rosario forces their hand. Getting less than ideal starting pitching is an issue, and compounding it by fielding a less than talented outfield only makes matters worse.
     
    While Minnesota is only two games into the season, there are some concerning trends that need to reverse themselves. Reaching third base and scoring runs are not reasons to panic in the slightest, but the above may prove to be costly unless the new manager does something about the bandaid that is no doubt peeling off.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2015 Major League Baseball season is just one day old. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins find themselves with only a tally in the loss column to this point. More unfortunately is that observations from one game have cause knuckle-dragging fans to already deem the 2015 season a failure. Whether because of anger that four years of losing causes, or the disappointment that still looming prospects has provided, a vast contingent isn't pleased. While those aren't viable reasons for angst at this point (and frankly lack even a decent sense of comprehension), the Twins safe decision making was on display yesterday, and should be plenty scrutinized in the immediate future.
     
    Against the Tigers, the Twins sent out what can be considered their top lineup. With Phil Hughes on the mound, at no other point (outside of replication) will the Twins 25 man roster be better represented than it was yesterday. Forget the fact that they were facing Cy Young level pitching in the form of David Price, there's no denying we might have seen and heard the first glimpses of concern.
     
    Starting in centerfield yesterday was Jordan Schafer. A protoypical fourth outfielder, generally utilized for his speed, the Twins have given the offed Atlanta Brave the keys to the outfield. In turn, on at least two occasions, defensive missplays cost the Twins. Allowing a run while stumbling late in the game, the Twins saw the deficit increase further than it should have due to their own doing. As a secondary option, manager Paul Molitor chose to bring journeyman Shane Robinson north along with Schafer. Employing a two man (remember it's not a platoon) centerfield, the Twins have gone with options that are definitely not starters, and potential questionable roster inclusions.
     
    When the bullpen entered the game yesterday, it was by way of Double-A Rule 5 Draft Pick, J.R. Graham. The hard thrower immediately worked himself into trouble, and then showed the resolve to get himself out of it unscathed. While it worked out in the team's favor this time, there's no doubt that Graham's shaky first inning doesn't bode well for the future. Considering that Molitor has said he plans to use some combination of Graham and Duensing in a 7th inning role, disaster could be looming for Minnesota.
     
    Despite not factoring into the action yesterday, Mike Pelfrey was also removed from his bullpen role in favor of Aaron Thompson. Following the loss of suspended starter Ervin Santana, Pelfrey was added back into the rotation. Despite a less than promising track record, the Twins decided to go with what was comfortable, rather than what may push them forward.
     
    That point gets us to the elephant the Twins see sitting at the end of their bench. Each and every roster move made this season has signified a stagnant style of thinking. Knowing this team isn't necessarily built to compete (despite what Terry Ryan has stated publicly), the ceiling has been purposely lowered from within. With options in house that could potentially stretch the ceiling, push the organization forward, and enhance development as a whole, the Twins have turned an opposite direction.
     
    It's fair to suggest that promotion of youth for the sake of doing so doesn't make sense. There is no reason to sacrifice potential ability because of immediate desire, but what the Twins have put in place leans towards the other end of the spectrum. Names like Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Pelfrey, and well really the whole bullpen sans Glen Perkins, suggest a lack of faith in organizational advancement. Imagine if the Twins had instead included Hicks, Rosario, May, Meyer, or Tonkin? What if they went out and replaced their bench bat with a name like Dayan Viciedo? What if they increased their own ceiling by allowing for the floor to be lowered because the upside was substantially greater?
     
    The premise is simple, knowing you aren't built to be amongst the elite, transitioning towards a future gain strategy would seem to make a lot of sense. While Pelfrey or Schafer may not make the mistakes a Meyer or Rosario will, they also represent a muted level of talent. Outside of finishing first, the positioning is relatively irrelevant, and the Twins have sent out a roster that fails to maximize upon this concept.
     
    At the end of the day, most of the "safe" options for the Twins are immediately replaceable. When the bullpen falls, or Pelfrey blows up, or the outfield crumbles, the Twins can turn over the keys. The question becomes, why not do some of that from the beginning in hopes of advancement, rather than after issues in response to failure?
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow on Twitter @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have started their 2015 Major League Baseball season already, and they did so with a tough luck loss to David Price. While the big league club is starting to trend in an upwards direction, there's no doubting that it's going to be another year with some lumps being taken. However, down in Chattanooga, Tennessee, there's a club ready to make waves.
     
    Minnesota's newest affiliate, the Chattanooga Lookouts are responsible for the Double-A rung of the farm system. Managed by Doug Mientkiewicz, the Lookouts may be one of the most intriguing teams constructed in all of baseball.
     
    Recently, the club released their Opening Day roster. Starting pitchers include names like Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffery, and Alex Wimmers. Out of the bullpen, the Lookouts have fireballers like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Zack Jones. There's no doubt pitching is going to be an asset, but it's the offensive positional players that could set the game on fire. A roster that includes Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Levi Michael, Jorge Polanco, Stuart Turner, Travis Harrison, Max Kepler, and Adam Brett Walker is no doubt going to be exciting. With much of this club making up the Fort Myers Miracle Florida State League champions a season ago, expectations are incredibly high.
     
    Mientkiewicz will have plenty of assets at his disposal, and here is how his lineup could potentially shake out:
     
    What it all adds up to is some must watch baseball. Although the Twins may stumble throughout the season, it will be in Double-A that the groundwork is laid for the Twins future. Despite being upset about losing out on the Twins managerial role, and having no problem voicing it, Mientkiewicz may have an even more important role. Mentoring these young prospects and pushing their development forward is what the organization is currently banking on.
     
    Following up an impressive run in the Florida State League a year ago is going to be no easy task. That being said, there's no doubt that this Lookouts roster should strike fear into any opposing team's dugout. Understanding that the Twins are going to be shuffling the roster throughout the season, it is from the reaches of Double-A that plenty of callups could come.
     
    Thus far, Terry Ryan has suggested that top tier prospects like Buxton and Sano may not need a stop in Triple-A Rochester. With more journeymen minor leaguers filling out the highest level, it may be in Double-A that they face their stiffest competition. If Dougie Baseball can get his Lookouts off to a good start, there's no telling how soon we could see some of them at the big league level.
     
    No matter what happens with the Twins, you can bet the baseball world is taking notice of the Chattanooga Lookouts.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Friday afternoon, just days away from the Twins heading to Detroit to take on the Tigers and open the 2015 Major League Baseball season, free agent pitcher Ervin Santana was popped with an 80 game suspension. He was caught for using an oral steroid, Stanozolol. With the news, the Twins immediately have a different outlook for not only their rotation, but the upcoming season as a whole.
     
    A situation such as the one that the Twins have been put in due to the poor decision making of Santana has somewhat of a ripple effect. There are quite a few factors at play here, and they add up to what should make for an interesting summer. First, Santana himself. His press release following the news toed a similar song and dance. He suggested that he had no idea how he ingested an oral steroid, and the he "needs to be more careful as to what he consumes in his home country." Of course that's the storyline, however thinly veiled it is. At this point, how and why don't matter. He's been paid, he's a part of the organization going forward, but the Twins will be without his services for the next 80 games.
     
    That leads us to his replacement, and there may be more reason for frustration here than any other. Not minutes after the news regarding Santana broke, Paul Molitor announced that it would be Mike Pelfrey replacing him in the starting rotation. Earlier in the week, Pelfrey was "demoted" to the bullpen after the club announced that he wound up finishing third out of three when it came to the fifth starter competition. Both Tommy Milone and Trevor May were given one last prove it start, while the club decided that Pelfrey was not a viable option. A temper tantrum ensued, which then turned more cordial as Pelfrey realized the writing was on the wall. Now, whether a by-product of timing or indecision, the Twins have contradicted their initial decision and skip over May for the sake of Pelfrey.
     
    With the decision, the unfortunate reality is not that Pelfrey is now a starter for the Twins. What happened however is Minnesota organizationally contradicted a decision they made just a week earlier. Suggesting that it was May, not Pelfrey who gave them a better chance to win, the move is a puzzling one. In fairness, Pelfrey was strong this spring, and looked more than capable. He's battled back from injury and looks healthy for the first time in years. With the upside of an average at best pitcher however, the Twins once again balk on a higher ceiling and go against what they had seemingly decided.
     
    From an overall pitching standpoint, the loss of Santana may actually provide long-term value. Although it is Pelfrey who gets the first crack, there are no two fluid rotation spots if pitchers should falter. Both Milone and Pelfrey become replaceable in the right circumstances. For the Twins, this means that both May and Alex Meyer could get looks sooner than initially anticipated. An 80 game suspension is virtually half of the season, and while I expected both prospects to be in the majors prior to that time, now it would seem certain. The development gained by having forced the Twins to accelerate them, should prove vital for both players advancement going forward.
     
    Looking at the team as a whole, Santana's loss probably doesn't hurt the bottom line as much as perceived. As I noted in an earlier post, despite the strong spring, there was plenty of reason for skepticism in 2015. Now without his services for half of the season, the greatest impact will likely be felt on the top end. I have had the Twins winning 79 games all offseason, and I'm going to stick with that number. Where the deficiency may be felt is in the club trying to elevate past that mark. If the Twins upside was surprising some and pushing for a wild card spot, they would need to win somewhere near 85 games. Considering the roster shuffle, that may now be a tall task. This club is still markedly better than a season ago, and I believe they remain out of the final spot in the AL Central.
     
    At the end of the day, Minnesota has just one spring training contest left before the end of the season. Losing a star offseason acquisition is by no means ideal, but it still doesn't launch the Twins into the ability level they have been in the previous four seasons. The shuffle should push for those trades from within to come a little sooner, and the Twins will no doubt be getting a good pitcher back on July 4. A poor decision, compounded by poor timing could spell disaster, but the Twins have some options.
     
    For more, check out Off The Baggy here. Follow on Twitter @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Although more often than not I put some thought into a topic before putting together a full fledged post, sometimes the topic just happens. This afternoon, a follower on Twitter posed a very interesting question. He asked, "Where do you see the Twins rotation amongst the AL Central competition." As recently as last season, it would be easy to quickly dismiss the thought and suggest they are dead last. Heading into 2015 however, it's not quite as easy.
     
    To understand the foundation the Twins stand on, we probably first need to comprehend what they are up against. Going in order of how I see the AL Central shaking out, let's take a look.
     
    Detroit Tigers
     
    I still hate the idea that the Tigers could win the AL Central, but looking at the White Sox and Indians, the Tigers still are where I lean. Although the Detroit offense should be impressive if it can stay healthy, this rotation is not at all at the same level as 2014. I'm not going to claim to know the order of any of these other rotations, but here is likely how the Tigers go:

    David Price
    Anibal Sanchez
    Justin Verlander (skipped while on DL)
    Shane Greene
    Alfredo Simon

    Last season, Price came over from the Rays and was welcomed rather uncomfortably. Sure, he posted a 3.26 ERA, but he also gave up more than four runs four different times in just 11 starts. There's no doubt he's deserving of the looming extension (and after losing Max Scherzer Detroit has to pay the man), but I'm not sure that brighter days are ahead. Anibal Sanchez is a constant injury risk, and while on he's great, the Tigers simply shouldn't rely on him at this point.
     
    I was of the belief that Verlander would bounce back this season, but he's showing signs of age before the season even gets going. I like Greene's upside, but there's still plenty for him to prove. Rounding out the rotation, a 33 year old Simon got paid off of his first year starting since 2011. His 4.33 FIP (fielding independent pitching) last season causes some real reason for concern.
     
    Chicago White Sox
     
    The White Sox are going to need their offense to show up, and I think it will. Their rotation has plenty of power at the top, but there's a significant cliff at the end. Here's who should be included:
    Chris Sale (beginning on the DL)
    Jeff Samardzija
    Jose Quintana
    John Danks
    Hector Noesi

    Sale and Samardzija are both quality pitchers and the White Sox should be fine there. Samardzija passed his regression test with Oakland (3.14 ERA in 16 starts) and should be counted on to continue the trend. From there however, things get uncertain.
     
    I like Quintana and think he can is a quality major league starter. He's young and he should only get better, if not for the next two, this is my favorite rotation in the Central. John Danks is rough, and as a 4th option even worse. He's getting paid, and the White Sox didn't want to go with the youngster Carlos Rodon yet. That will hurt them. Noesi is a back end of the rotation guy and is prone to blowups. He doesn't strike many out and doesn't miss enough bats. Knowing that Brad Penny is the option behind him, the White Sox are in trouble if they need to start shuffling.
     
    Cleveland Indians
     
    If you love the Indians to be a dark horse in the Central, and even the American League this year (and plenty do), it begins and ends with their rotation. Offensively, the Tribe should score, but they will need to be banking on the return of Kipnis and Swisher, while hoping that Moss and Brantley continue to perform. The biggest reason I dislike the Indians as a trendy team is that I don't buy their rotation:

    Corey Kluber
    Carlos Carrasco
    Trevor Bauer
    Zach McAllister
    TJ House

    Kluber is the reigning Cy Young. He's a stud, nothing to see there. The Indians will then give the ball to Carrasco, who's started just 54 games in his five year major league career. Last year he owned a 2.55 ERA but made only 14 starts. He had a 2.44 FIP a season ago, yet he had never posted a mark better than 4.10 previously in his career. Carrasco has also never thrown more than 134 innings in a season. It's too small of a sample size, and I just can't get on board.
     
    I like Bauer more than most, but the former top prospect is much to uncertain to rely on. He'll be lights out one night, and a walk machine the next. McAllister and House rounding out the group shouldn't excite anyone. Blame some poor defense (3.45 FIP/5.23 ERA) but McAllister didn't prove anything a year ago. House has a good deal of upside and should be expected to take steps forward, but his 3.69 FIP was actually worse than his ERA (3.35) and it will be interesting to see how he competes in his second year in the big leagues.
     
    Kansas City Royals
     
    If the Indians are the trendy pick, the Royals are anything but. I have them finishing at the bottom of the division and I just don't like their offseason at all. It's not that losing James Shields was detrimental, but the pieces they brought in as replacements should cause skepticism. Here is how the rotation should look:

    Yordano Ventura
    Danny Duffy
    Edinson Volquez
    Jason Vargas
    Jeremy Guthrie

    First, yuck. Second, the Royals rotation was recently ranked as one of the worst in the major leagues, and it's with good reason. Ventura may very well be a Cy Young candidate, but the cliff begins after him. Danny Duffy should be expected to provide quality again for Kansas City, but a 3.83 FIP and a 2.53 ERA suggest his surroundings were a large part of the reason for his success. Edinson Volquez coming over from Pittsburgh could get ugly quick. He owns a 4.44 career ERA with all but three seasons coming in the National League. He's posted an FIP under 4.00 only once, and that was size years ago.
     
    Both Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie are on the wrong side of 30, with the former likely staring an ERA near 5.00 in the face. The fact that Joe Blanton believes he can crack this group on the back end is probably telling in and of itself.
     
    Minnesota Twins
     
    This brings us to the Twins (no I don't have them finishing last). While Minnesota's offense was in the top ten in runs scored a season ago, it didn't matter with the rotation bleeding runs. It's quite conceivable that the bullpen will be the culprit this season, but the rotation should have far more questions than answers. It's slated to look like this:
    Phil Hughes
    Ervin Santana
    Ricky Nolasco
    Kyle Gibson
    Tommy Milone

    Hughes was lights out last season, but for the most part, that could have been expected. His FIP (2.65) improved as it should have leaving Yankee Stadium. Although the outfield defense is expected to get worse, Hughes doesn't have to prevent a record amount of walks to improve. His 3.52 ERA leaves room to get lower, and he should once again be considered a staff ace.
     
    Of the group, Santana may actually be the wild card. While I'm excited by the signing, I noted that Santana actually concerns me a decent amount this year. The Twins need him to be good, and better than his trends suggest. Nolasco was billed as an innings eater and an ace when signed last offseason. that was a mistake by the Twins, and only compounded by the former Marlin pitching through injury. He's never going to be a top of the rotation guy, but an ERA right around 4.00 and a quality third starter should be expected.
     
    Gibson likely stands to take the biggest step forward this year. Settled into a guaranteed rotation spot, and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Minnesota should expect more from their former first round pick. He's never going to strike a lot of guys out, but getting his K/9 up around 7.0 is fair and something that should lower his ERA into the high three range.
     
    The fifth spot is likely going to be the most fluid for the Twins. Milone isn't exciting, but you know what you're going to get. His 4.21 FIP average isn't going to be conducive to a low ERA, but Target Field should aid him just like the Coliseum. Healthy this season, he can give the Twins innings at a 4.10 clip until Alex Meyer or Trevor May is ready.
     
    While this became extremely long winded, I hope the point got across. There is no clear cut favorite when it comes to rotations in the AL Central. At the end of the day, the top dogs have more questions than answers on the back end. The Twins may not have the top tier aces, but they probably have more reliable quality throughout. Minnesota is not yet in a position to consider the rotation a strength, but if the Twins are going to shock some people, it will come on the backs of their starting pitchers hovering around their perceived potential.
     
    Get more from Off The Baggy here. Check out Ted on Twitter @tlschwerz
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Currently, the Minnesota Twins are less than a week away from kicking off their 2015 Major League Baseball season. Having hovered right around the .500 mark this spring, new manager Paul Molitor should have a good idea of the areas of strength, and where the team needs work. Heading north, the Twins will be looking to break away from the trend that is losing 90 games each of the last four seasons. More than any other recent season, the 2015 Twins have both a respectable ceiling and a relatively high floor. Maximizing on opportunities will determine which direction they trend in.
     
    Last season, Minnesota vastly outproduced expectations on the offensive end. Getting key contributions from players like Danny Santana, Kurt Suzuki, and even Jordan Schafer, the Twins saw more runs score than they could have imagined. Unfortunately, even with unexpected batting averages being inflated, the Twins failed to capitalize in the wins category due to poor pitching. There's no doubt that once again the mound was an area of focus this offseason, and the Twins appear to be in a better place.
     
    When looking at how high the Twins ceiling is for 2015, everything begins and ends with pitching. Although Ervin Santana was the club's only offseason addition, the staff looks retooled and competitive for the first time in years. Gone are the days of Cole De Vries and Samuel Deduno making the Opening Day rotation. Minnesota has a true ace in Phil Hughes, and he backed by arms such as Kyle Gibson, Santana, and Ricky Nolasco. Rounding out the rotation, Tommy Milone is more than capable of getting the job done as a 5th starter at the major league level. The improved pitching should only substantiate a lineup designed to score runs.
     
    Looking at the offense, there's no doubt the Twins will see some regression. Of the players mentioned above as breakouts, next to none of them should be expected to replicate their 2014 level of success. Getting key contributions from players like Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, and Oswaldo Arcia in 2015 should make the regression less detrimental however. Minnesota's lineup boasts at least five guys capable of 20 home run seasons, and solid pitching performances should not be wasted this time around.
     
    Trying to quantify the ceiling in the win/loss column is probably more assumption based than everything. As it stands currently, I have the Twins coming in at 79-83. Should they have things break in their favor and maximize on their opportunities, an 86 win campaign would not be out of the realm of possibility. That win total should be good enough to get them near the top of the AL Central and into the Wild Card round as well. The Central is competitive as a whole, but the top has gotten worse while the bottom has gotten better. Minnesota can no doubt play with, and beat, any team in the division.
     
    So what if it all crashes and burns?
     
    Before thinking doomsday, there's no doubt that this Twins roster is built for regression. Handling, and overcoming adversity is something that the 2015 Twins should be more than capable of doing. Once again, everything begins and ends with pitching however, and that could be where the Twins find their breakdown.
     
    I have a hard time quantifying what the floor looks like for the Twins this season. They have a handful of options when and if guys go down, and each of them is capable in a limited capacity. However, if Nolasco fails to bounce back, Milone struggles, and Gibson doesn't develop, Minnesota could be in some trouble. A rotation highlighting only Hughes again would be extremely detrimental to this club. Although I think Santana is going to be fine with the Twins, he does have a couple of concerning factors that could come into play.
     
    From a numerical standpoint, the floor isn't where it once was. If the Twins mid-point is the 79-83 record I referenced above, than the floor is somewhere around 73 games. I don't forsee the current roster construction, or state of the organization, producing a 90 loss team. The AL Central probably won't produce a 90 loss team this year, and if it does, I don't think it will be the Twins.
     
    While not yet ready to make a deep playoff run in Paul Molitor's first season as skipper, the Twins have to be excited about the place they are in. There's more good than bad, and things are trending upwards.
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    This morning, the Minnesota Twins sent Caleb Thielbar out of major league camp and back to Triple-A Rochester. With the move, the 2015 bullpen is set in stone at the major league level. Without a doubt the group has more questions marks than anything, but the potential may lie just beyond those questions.
     
    First, let's take a quick look at how the Twins will set up the relief pitchers for the coming year:
    Blaine Boyer-Middle Reliever
    J.R. Graham-Middle Reliever
    Mike Pelfrey-Middle Reliever
    Brian Duensing-Lefty Specialist
    Tim Stauffer-Long Reliever
    Casey Fien-Setup Man
    Glen Perking-Closer

    Woof! Ok now that we have that out of the way, only Glen Perkins would appear to be a pitcher that can be counted on. Assuming he's healthy, and that's probably somewhat of a sketchy assumption, Perkins will be one of the better closers in the American League. Outside of him however, the Twins have compiled a pen of relatively low-upside players, some in new roles, and some battling through regressing trends.
     
    So where does this potential come in? Due to the current construction of the Twins bullpen, the upside is actually within who's not a part of the Opening Day list, and how they could quickly push for time.
     
    Starting with the most exciting options, prospects Nick Burdi and Jake Reed have a lot to gain this season with the Twins. Both high selections in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, Burdi and Reed have been deserving of the hype thus far in their professional career.
     
    After playing in the College World Series for the Louisville Cardinals, Burdi went on to continue lighting up radar guns for the Twins. Pitching through both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, Burdi had just one bad outing in 20 games (coincidentally it was his first). Across the two levels, he compiled a 16.8 K/9 while pitching to the tune of a 2.66 ERA. It's pretty safe to say that Burdi made easy work of the lower levels of the organization, and will be accelerated this season. Whether he starts in Fort Myers or Chattanooga, expect him to surface with the Twins sooner rather than later. If he can continue along the same path, he should become an option at the back of the Twins pen over the summer. Fien slipping up would likely cede chances to a Michael Tonkin type first, but it also opens the door for Burdi.
     
    In the earlier innings, the Twins find a middle reliever in Reed that they should be able to count on for years to come. Selected out of Oregon, Reed dominated Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He continued the trend in overpowering the Arizona Fall League as well, traditionally filled with top tier prospects. Reed owned an 11.3 K/9 in 20 games last season while walking just 0.9 batters per nine innings. Efficient and dominant, the Twins will be looking to get him to the big leagues in short order as well.
     
    Likely slated for Fort Myers, Reed may have the most to gain this year. With Pelfrey, Boyer, Graham, and even Stauffer all being relative question marks, the door should swing open. While Lester Oliveros, Logan Darnell, A.J. Achter and others reside in the higher rungs of the organization, it's Reed that the Twins can elevate the most with. Should he be able to replicate his 2014 season, Reed will get an early look from the Twins, and could be an asset to them down the stretch.
     
    Really, the biggest takeaway from the current bullpen situation is that it is going to be an evolving entity for the Twins. Like I mentioned yesterday with positional players, the Twins can control their own talent level from within. Should they find themselves competing in the middle of the year, with pitchers like Reed and Burdi looking strong, and the bullpen in rough shape, they immediately have internal options. The current bullpen structure should be good enough to keep what is an improved staff happy, but the Twins taking a leap will come on the promotion of their top tier prospects.
     
    Having made pitcher heavy selections in the first ten round of the draft last season, most with relief intentions, the Twins have plenty to gain by going down on the farm. Although the bullpen is worrisome right now, expect leashes to be short, and options to be plentiful. The Twins surprising this season is going to involve some gutsy decisions.
     
    Check out more from Off The Baggy here. Follow along @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2006, the Minnesota Twins sported a rookie pitcher that ended up bursting onto the scene and making an All Star appearance. With a devastating slider and blistering fastball, Francisco Liriano flew under the radar for a very small period of time. Unfortunately, the excitement wouldn't last, as injury would take away his 2007 and part of his 2008 season. Fast forward to 2012 and the Twins had watched what once was an undoubted ace, turn into an up and down starter that was fueled only by his own doubt. Going nowhere fast, the Twins decided to flip Liriano to the Chicago White Sox midseason, and that's where this all begins.
     
    An afterthought prospect, Eduardo Escobar, was all the Twins could get in return for their starter who owned a 5.31 ERA at the time of his departure. Signed as an amateur free agent in 2006, Escobar broke into the big leagues with the White Sox in 2011. Playing in just nine games, it wasn't until 2012 that Escobar got some regular playing time at the big league level. Over his first two seasons as a Twin, Escobar played in just 80 games for the club. Even while possessing a seemingly low ceiling, the returns didn't warrant opportunity even on a team losing 90 games.
     
    Last season however, things changed for Escobar and the Twins. Over the course of 133 games, Minnesota employed Escobar as a utility man. He played all over the field, logging time at five different positions not including designated hitter. The bulk of his run came at shortstop, but Escobar had become the Twins every day utility man. On top of being versatile in the field, Escobar mocked his career .255/.300/.365 line by slashing .275/.315/.406. His six home runs and 37 RBI were important additions from a player not necessarily synonymous with those statistics. Looking around a room of baseball experts, you'd be hard pressed to find someone willing to bet on the Venezuelan infielder continuing his run.
     
    Now through 11 spring training games, Escobar appears poised to pick up right where he left off in 2015. He has hit two home runs, driven in 13 runs, and is slashing .333/.333/.528. Looking through the leaders in the Grapefruit League, only the Miami Marlins Michael Morse has plated more runners. Although the strikeout to walk totals aren't where the Twins would necessarily like them to be, Escobar has also looked to have an improved focus at the plate.
     
    As the Twins head north, Escobar will once again be in his standard role. Despite competing for the starting shortstop position, Minnesota stands much more to gain by employing him all over the diamond. It would seem that gone are the days of Twins subbing in defensive only utility men. Escobar has the ability to both hit and field, and he has shown that he can be an asset to the club in both categories.
     
    With spring training statistics being what they are, it's unfair to draw too many conclusions from the early performance. Having no history to go off of, 2015 is Escobar's chance to prove that the offensive prowess wasn't a fluke. No matter what though, the Twins are ready to cash the check they received for Liriano, and Eduardo Escobar is putting it together at the best possible time.
     
    For more, check out Off The Baggy's official site. Or follow on Twitter @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    This morning, first year manager Paul Molitor announced the next handful of roster cuts for the Minnesota Twins. As the team whittles down its roster to 25 players prior to Opening Day a week from Monday, the group of Fort Myers is going to get smaller. With 31 players now left in camp, Molitor has six more players he must send packing. The latest round however may have caused more confusion than clarity.
     
    Amongst the roster moves this morning, the Minnesota Twins elected to send out position players Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks. Both outfielders will head to Triple-A Rochester to begin the 2015 season. Relief pitcher Mark Hamburger was also optioned as well as starter Trevor May. Both pitchers will head to the Red Wings as well. With the moves, it was also announced that Tommy Milone would open as the Twins fifth and final starter, with Mike Pelfrey transitioning to the bullpen.
     
    No matter how you break it down, Saturday was by far the most integral day of roster shuffling the Twins have seen thus far. With the plethora of decisions made, the roster is taking shape. That being said, there's no doubt that a few of the moves made cause reason for confusion.
     
    Starting with the outfield, namely centerfield, both Hicks and Rosario were sent packing. Thus far during the spring, we have heard that neither Hicks nor Rosario would stick with the club in a rotational capacity. They would either be named the starter, or would be sent packing. The curious part of the equation is that those sentiments seemed to be in unison with one another. Either Rosario or Hicks would start, as it never appeared likely that Jordan Schafer or Shane Robinson were viable candidates.
     
    That brings us to where we are now. The Twins are heading into 2015 with some opportunity to outperform expectations. No one is banking on them being a playoff team, but if all things break right, they could squeak in. That being said, the upcoming season is about figuring out who you have to pair with the arrival of the talented youth on the way. Rosario still very much remains of that grouping, but the problem is Aaron Hicks.
     
    Hicks, a former first round pick for the Twins, has struggled mightily at the major league level. After an impressive 2013 spring training, he was promoted to the starting role from Double-A, despite being more of a tools prospect than the refined category of a Byron Buxton. Last year, for the first time in his career, a demotion allowed him to successively progress through both the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He did so while hitting for average, getting on base, and playing solid centerfield defense. Today's move suggest the Twins aren't looking to substantiate that at the major league level and the big question is why? Figuring out what Hicks has to give you prior to turning Buxton and Rosario loose seems to be an integral thing to unlock. Doing so out of the gate with a strong end to the 2014 season made the most sense. Now it would appear the Twins have created more questions than answers.
     
    In moving on from Hicks to start the season, Molitor is giving the centerfield job to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. He has said he will "play matchups" but that it won't be a straight platoon situation. While that's great in theory, by and large, that is what's going to take place. The problem there is that a platoon is designed to allow a batter to exploit his talents against a certain type of pitcher.
     
    Neither Robinson nor Schafer possess any real ability at the plate. Schafer owns a .229 career average, and was under the Mendoza line last season before coming over from the Braves. Sure he hit .285 for the Twins, but there's no way the production is sustainable. As an outfielder owning a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -8.4, he's not someone you ideally want starting in center either.
     
    On the other side of the equation, Robinson fooled no one with a breakout season at the plate. He spent much of 2014 in Triple-A for the Cardinals. His career UZR of 7.8 is indicative of his billing as a defensive outfielder, but his career average suggests he's virtually a guaranteed out as well. At the end of the day, Molitor and the Twins appear to have looked past Aaron Hicks at the juncture that may result in them getting another opportunity to do so.
     
    Looking at the mound, normalcy has likely been achieved. As Mike Palfrey heads to the pen with Milone rounding out the rotation, the Twins know how things will start. Palfrey voiced displeasure suggesting he was told he'd be given a chance to start, and that he didn't believe he'd be destined for the pen. This morning, he went as far as saying if there are clubs who believe in him as a starter, he would be open to moving on.
     
    To be fair, the competition likely never included Palfrey from the get go. While he posted a sub 2.00 ERA this spring, 13.2 innings were never going to be enough to extrapolate any information that multiple years of bad starting pitching wouldn't overshadow. Trevor May pitched well, and despite his rough outing on Friday, he was always going to be in an uphill battle. Malone is a proven commodity and pitched well on a solid Oakland team. Minnesota should expect him to return to that form this season.
     
    Despite being upset about his new role, Pelfrey actually could extend his career this way. With the ability to push the radar gun to around 97 in a less stamina related role, he could overpower hitters to a much larger extent. While Wade Davis is the golden example, if Palfrey can follow that path and become even close to that level, the Twins stand to gain a lot with this decision. Should Palfrey be focused on starting, the Twins could look to the Mets, Blue Jays, and maybe even the Red Sox as options. The problem is that a bad starting pitcher is probably going to net them less in a trade, even if that team needs an arm, than what they would find out by having him relieve first.
     
    At the end of Saturday, we know a lot more about how the Twins will look when they head north. Some of it is easy to agree with (sorry Pelf, the pen is home now), and some doesn't make sense (Hicks now becomes a bigger question mark than he was before). As the Twins embark on their last week in Florida, look for the backup catcher role to be determined, and Eduardo Nunez to continue to be evaluated.
     
    Let's hope we aren't having another frustrating discussion involving Kennys Vargas later this week. The Twins are at the mercy of injury when it comes to Josmil Pinto, and if they have to bring Chris Herrmann north because of it, so be it. That being said, lets shoot for a bit higher ceiling with the rest of the decisions alright brain trust?
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    Now just a week from Opening Day most Major League Baseball clubs have their 40 man rosters set and are working through their final cuts before kicking off the regular season. Although we don’t have Opening Day on its original scheduled time, a full 162-game season following the lockout is as good as it gets.
    The Atlanta Braves are looking to repeat as World Series Champions, but they will be doing so with some new faces after letting franchise favorite Freddie Freeman walk. The American League will certainly be out to recapture the trophy, and there’s a ton of new talent being thrust into the highest level.
    You can look back at my 2021 picks here. A dark horse MVP candidate wound up taking the crown, and it was good to see Bryce Harper pick up his second iteration of that award. Here’s what I have for 2022.
    MVP: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Byron Buxton) National League – Juan Soto (Dark Horse Manny Machado)
    Maybe Robert is a post-hype type player, but he’s far too much of an afterthought with just two seasons in the big leagues. Robert played just 68 games last year for the White Sox, but the 24-year-old posted a .946 OPS. He has the complete package of speed, power, and athleticism to make an impact all over the diamond. The strikeout rates are still ugly, but he makes enough hard hit contact to generate a strong average. Chicago should again be good, and that puts him in a good spot. 
    Byron Buxton is going to be healthy this year if I have to manifest it into existence. Should that happen, he’ll find himself squarely in the conversation. He began 2021 on a ridiculous pace and was only overshadowed by Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Betting on himself in his new extension, that paying off early would be nice to see.
    On the National League side it really feels like the MVP is Juan Soto’s to lose. He’s an otherworldly talent that hits for average and power while having a great eye. I don’t think the Nationals are going to be very good this season, but if Nelson Cruz has any positive impact on the youngster allowing him to take his game up a notch, that’s pretty scary. It’d also be somewhat of a nice development to see Manny Machado step up in a big way for the Padres with Fernando Tatis Jr. out to start the season. He’s been close to an MVP award previously, and maybe this winds up being the year.
    Cy Young: American League – Shohei Ohtani (Dark Horse Luis Severino) National League – Max Scherzer (Dark Horse Logan Webb)
    If there’s a way to follow up an MVP award after putting up the best individual season baseball has ever seen, Shohei Ohtani could grab a Cy Young as an encore. The greatest thing working against him will always be the amount of starts he makes. That said, another year of learning the league, I think this could be his true breakout on the mound. Another step forward and he’ll be in the conversation with Gerrit Cole as the best pitcher in the American League. Speaking of Cole, his teammate Luis Severino looked to have elite stuff prior to dealing with injuries since 2019. If he’s at all healthy, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that play again.
    Max Scherzer jumps teams within the division, but now he’s in a place that’s willing to spend big. Paired with Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the best one-two punch in baseball. New York should be a very good team, and those two arms are going to do the heavy lifting. It’s been a few years since Scherzer won a Cy Young, and maybe he tired a bit in the postseason last year, but I think he shows well for his new club. 
    San Francisco Giants star Logan Webb is an intriguing choice here. He’s not far down the list of odds, but may be somewhat of an afterthought. The Giants probably won’t be as good this season, but Webb could take another step forward as he cements himself as a legitimate ace. His FIP was sub 3.00 last season and the strikeout numbers are there. It wouldn’t shock me if he puts up a head-turning performance.
    Rookie of the Year: American League – Bobby Witt Jr. (Dark Horse Julio Rodriguez) National League – Hunter Greene (Dark Horse Max Meyer)
    It’s hard to go against the Royals superstar prospect Bobby Witt Jr. He’s going to make the Opening Day roster and looks like someone that should be an impact player from day one. Kansas City won’t be good, but they shouldn’t be terrible either. The highlight reel play on both sides of the ball are impressive, and he should be fun to watch from within the division. Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez may also be in the conversation, but that will largely depend on how much runway he’s given this season.
    Once considered among the best draft prospects ever, Hunter Greene’s debut should finally come in 2022. The Reds rotation has arms that need to still be moved, but Greene should see plenty of action for a team that’s clearly not trying. His stuff is going to play, and the triple-digit fastball is going to be fun to watch. If the Marlins promote Max Meyer with any amount of longevity destined for this season, he too could be in the running.
    Postseason:
    American League – Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, Twins
    National League – Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies
    ALCS – Blue Jays over Rays
    NLCS – Phillies over Braves
    World Series – Phillies over Blue Jays
    Toronto had a stellar offseason adding Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman. Already having a strong rotation and top talents like Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it’s hard not to see them as the juggernaut in a competitive American League East. They picked up depth talents as well, and we’re already trending towards being among the best teams in baseball. I’d be far from surprised if they finish with the best record in the American League.
    On the other side, I think the Phillies give themselves a nice chance to play spoiler as somewhat of an underdog. The Braves and Mets are seen as the best in the division, but Philadelphia shouldn’t be far behind. Castellanos and Schwarber are two big bats, and the addition of the designated hitter hides the latter from playing the field. Bryce Harper is still the reigning MVP winner, and adding what they did to a formerly bad bullpen should help a lot.
    We’re so close to regular season action in a season that should bring the return of normalcy. It’s time to settle in for the fun.
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Tomorrow, for the first time since 2019, we will have affiliated Minor League Baseball. The Minnesota Twins farm system is still stocked with strong prospects, and there’s been a good deal of change. We’ll finally get to see it unfold again.
     
    Having the 2020 Minor League Baseball season be cancelled was arguably the most disappointing baseball decision from last year. While it’s understandable given the logistical hurdles during a global pandemic, not seeing development on a nightly basis was a tough pill to swallow. Minnesota had players working out in St. Paul at their alternate site, but sim games and manufactured action can only take guys so far.
     
    Fast forward to where we are now, and the return of baseball on the farm couldn’t be more welcomed. Minnesota will do so without top prospect Royce Lewis on the diamond, and both top pitching prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic will begin the season on the IL. That said, there’s still a ton of development to take place and so much excitement around a system that has been substantially changed.
     
    First and foremost, the locations are no longer what we are used to. Triple-A is now housed just down the road from Target Field as the Saint Paul Saints begin their long-awaited affiliation with the Twins. At Double-A, the Wichita Wind Surge will play their inaugural season, and for the Twins instead of the Miami Marlins as was intended in 2020. High-A has been relocated from Fort Myers to Cedar Rapids, and the Low-A Florida State League club is now dubbed the Mighty Mussels rather than the Miracle.
     
    On the player specific side of things there’s plenty of names to watch. Trevor Larnach is the top position prospect at Triple-A, and Double-A Wichita will start quick rising Josh Winder on Opening Day. I still think reliever Ryan Mason is a name to watch as an option for the big-league club this year, and we’ll get to see the likes of Keoni Cavaco and Aaron Sabato as they continue their ascension towards the Major League roster.
     
    As a contributor over at Twins Daily, I’ll once again have the Minor League report on Wednesday nights, and those will again become a daily mainstay to catch up on the action. This aspect of the game was severely missed a season ago and having it back couldn’t be more welcomed.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have now played nine games in the 2021 Major League Baseball season thus far and are scheduled for their tenth today. They haven’t had a fully healthy roster for a full game yet, but batting order positions are starting to take shape. Where and when should we consider questioning them?
     
    For most of his tenure as the skipper for Minnesota, Rocco Baldelli has opted to bat lefty Max Kepler in the leadoff hole. He’s a non-traditional fit there as speed isn’t his game, and he is more of a power player than high batting average guy. Through nine games this year Kepler hasn’t batted higher than cleanup and he’s been slotted in as low as ninth.
     
    Looking at all options, the ideal fit for Rocco would seem to be Luis Arraez. The former second basemen turned utility man has played all over the place in 2021 and will continue to get reps in the outfield at least until Alex Kirilloff is promoted. In seven of his 10 starts he’ll have led off, but curiously he’s also batted 9th on the other three occasions. This is where the weirdness comes in.
     
    From purely a speculative standpoint it seems that Baldelli is looking to shield Luis from left-handed pitchers. Despite an .890 OPS in his career against righties, that drops to .645 against lefties. The caveat here however is that Arraez loses power and average against southpaws, but he still owns a career .371 OBP against them and is synonymous with solid at bats.
     
    Before making any determinations, it’s worth bringing up the emergence of Byron Buxton. I have long believed he was primed for a breakout 2021, and so far, that’s looking to be selling things short. Playing otherworldly, and especially at the dish, he’s now drawing starts in the leadoff spot. Traditionally that would make a lot of sense given his speed and gap potential, but things are a bit different for him in recent years. Buxton has found his power stroke.
     
    For Byron there’s a few tendencies that run opposite of what Arraez is capable of. While Byron absolutely has thirty homer power potential, he’s still not going to be the on-base asset without hitting for a relatively high average. 2020 was an outlier for sure, but the walk rate is never going to be something Minnesota’s centerfielder hangs his hat on. More alike the former leadoff guy in Kepler, Buxton is plenty capable of putting a charge into a ball and generating extra-base hits.
     
    This all may become moot in a few days when Josh Donaldson returns to the Twins lineup, but I think there’s some concrete decisions that can and should be made here. Luis Arraez bats leadoff when he’s in the lineup. It shouldn’t matter where he plays, who is pitching, or what day of the week it is. Don’t overthink it, let your table setter set the table. From there, Buxton has earned his way into the two-hole. That’s a spot occupied lately by the likes of Kyle Garlick. Minnesota is a bit stretched offensively in left field right now, and Garlick is fine, but he’s a bottom third hitter. Buxton should be batting in a run-producing position while still allowing him the ability to be on base for the bigger boppers. Donaldson is going to hit here when he returns, but then moving Buxton to third makes a good deal of sense.
     
    Lineup construction is certainly nuanced, and it really only matters in the first inning and on a relatively minute scale. That said, Arraez should be generating as many at bats as he can for Minnesota, and Buxton should always be in a spot to come up and drive runners in.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    We are just one sleep from Opening Day, and I feel comfortable suggesting we’ll have a season that begins tomorrow. I say that because I prefaced this piece last year by writing, “I’m doing this a bit earlier than normal this year, and that could wind up being a silly decision depending on injuries and how Spring Training plays out.” That was on March 4, eight days later Covid shut down baseball. At any rate, fans are in the stands and the world is trending back towards normal.
     
    Despite a truncated season the Los Angeles Dodgers did as expected and emerged victorious with a World Series trophy. They are the odds-on favorites going into 2021, and it isn’t much of a surprise given the additional firepower they’ve brought in. Tampa Bay will look for a return trip to the World Series, but 162 games should allow for more nuanced results to take shape.
     
    This is an exciting rookie class, especially from a Minnesota perspective, so individual awards will be worth watching as well. Here’s the 2020 picks which included a correct World Series champion and NLCS matchup. Let’s get into it for 2021.
     
    MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Byron Buxton) National League – Juan Soto (Dark Horse Bryce Harper)
     
    It’s maybe unfair to pick Trout every year but given he’s literally the best the game has ever seen, it’s also incredibly hard to go against him. He posted a down year in 2020 and still wound up with a .993 OPS and a career worst fifth place finish in the AL MVP race. There are some contenders in the American League, and I like bounce back years for guys like Gleyber Torres and Alex Bregman, but this is Trout’s award until further notice. As a longshot the Twins Buxton makes sense. If he’s ever healthy for a full season, an OPS around .840 and his defense will get him a substantial number of votes.
     
    On the National League side, I’m going with a pair of players tied to the Washington Nationals. For a winner, it’s Juan Soto nabbing his first of what should be multiple individual awards. Sure, he’s got a Silver Slugger, but missing out on the Rookie of the Year would be vindicated with a quicker MVP than Ronald Acuna Jr. Soto is an anomaly in that he not only hits for ridiculous power, but also has now shown he can do so with an exceptional average. The plate discipline has always been there but the league leading 1.185 OPS a year ago was bananas. I liked Harper to take this award home last year as he had settled into Philadelphia a bit more, and then oddities hit in regards to the season. He’s a polarizing player, but ultimately underrated, and I think we get another award to substantiate that reality.
     
    Cy Young: American League – Kenta Maeda (Dark Horse Eduardo Rodriguez) National League – Jack Flaherty (Dark Horse Walker Buehler)
     
    I can understand if the Maeda pick looks homerish, but he’s coming off a second place finish a season ago and there’s no reason to believe he slows down. The Twins ace was untouchable this spring, and it seems people are sleeping on Minnesota with all of the White Sox hype this offseason. Maeda has long been a dominant arm and being hidden in Los Angeles didn’t get him his due. Another season like he had last year and he’s just a slight step back from Shane Bieber or Gerrit Cole away from taking the crown. Boston initially tabbed Rodriguez as their Opening Day starter prior to a bout of dead arm. He’s a feel-good story in returning from Covid-19 complications last season, but he’s also an incredibly good pitcher. I don’t know what to make of the Red Sox, but their ace should provide little to worry about.
     
    In the National League Central we may see more mediocrity than any other division in baseball. Both the Brewers and Cardinals would appear to be favorites, but neither have much to separate them from anyone else. If there’s a diamond in the rough for me, it’s Flaherty. He has looked the part since his debut, and another step forward would classify him as the type of ace any team would covet. It’s also probably not fair to dub Buehler as a dark horse, especially after picking him in this space a season ago. However, he’s working behind both Clayton Kershaw and Trevor Bauer for the Dodgers and a meteoric rise should be in the works.
     
    Rookie of the Year: American League – Jarred Kelenic (Dark Horse Wander Franco) National League Ke’Bryan Hayes (Dark Horse Dylan Carlson)
     
    Seattle all but admitted they are manipulating Kelenic’s service time, which is both unfortunate and understandable. The reality is that he’ll be there sooner rather than later though, and all the kid has done is rake. Kelenic put on a show this spring and was already successful at Double-A in 2019 as a teenager. The bat is going to play, and he should be a difference maker for Seattle as soon as May. I like Randy Arozarena in this space a decent amount but went with Franco as the dark horse anyways. The Rays have some exciting young options once again, and the greatest thing holding Franco back could be how soon he reaches the majors.
     
    Having watched Hayes in person a few times this spring it was apparent that he’s special. Third base is such a smooth position for him defensively, and that seems to help a young player acclimate if the bat wavers at any point. He hits rockets all over the place, and in a National League landscape that lacks top tier names, he should establish himself as the guy. St. Louis has a lot to like in Carlson, especially the power his bat brings to the plate. There’s probably going to be a few slumps throughout the season, but a few nice stretches of homer production could push him to the top of the leaderboard as well.
     
    Postseason:
    American League – Angels, Twins, Yankees Wild Card – Blue Jays, White Sox
    National League – Dodgers, Cardinals, Braves Wild Card – Padres, Mets
    ALCS – Twins over Yankees
    NLCS – Dodgers over Mets
    World Series – Dodgers over Twins
     
    I really liked this matchup a year ago and nailed half of it, time to go back to the well. Yeah, the Twins haven’t won a Postseason game in forever, but a post-hype situation seems like the perfect spot for them. Minnesota can not only win a game this year but take a couple of series on the way to representing the American League in the World Series. Too much is being made of a White Sox team without depth and looking at young volatility. Houston gets left out of the Postseason altogether but could both overtake the Angels or one of the Wild Card spots. I don’t love the Yankees going to the ALCS, regardless of who the face, because of the pitching staff. That said, you know they’ll add when warts present themselves during the course of the regular season.
     
    It shouldn’t e pre-determined in baseball with the season as long as it is, but I’m not going to be the one to pick against the Dodgers. They have a third starter that is one of the best arms in baseball, and a former top prospect that may struggle to find a real role anywhere. In short, the team is loaded. I don’t have much belief in anyone coming out of the NL Central, but the East should be a blast with Atlanta again being great and the Mets having overhauled their roster. San Diego is going to be a fun team all year and the coasts of the National League could really be where some of the best baseball is played.
     
    A repeat World Series winner for the first time since 2000, and the first back-to-back World Series victor from the National League since 1976, it’s happening.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    If you’ve followed my work here or on Twitter over the past couple of years, it’s become evident I’ve dove full steam into card collecting. While I’ve dabbled in basketball (hi, Anthony Edwards), and will grab my first hockey card soon (Kirill Kaprizov is in Upper Deck Series 2 out later this month), baseball is obviously the sweet spot.
     
    I’ve gone through a bit of a collecting lull in wanting to refocus my efforts and make sure I’m enjoying my collection for what it is. I’ve kicked around similar versions of this idea over the past couple of seasons and am now going to write it into existence. With the way cards have exploded, I want to notate a few players I think are worthy “investments” for the 2021 season.
     
    Here’s the deal, this isn’t a get rich quick type of situation, and I also shy away from the notion of prospecting. Bowman cards are often exorbitantly priced only to come cascading back to earth when prospects don’t pan out. No, my goal here is to identify a few undervalued players that will turn a nice ROI in the next 12 months.
     
    Before coming forward with the names let’s outline a couple of ground rules. No single card can cost more than $20. With that intention, it rules out grading any raw cards. Even at the lowest value submission level a card would be pushed beyond that threshold. The goal would be for nothing less than a 50% growth rate by March 2021.
     
    Alright, let’s get into it.
     
    2018 Topps Jack Flaherty #93 PSA 9 - $12
     
    Coming off his worst season in the majors, Flaherty is maybe an odd pitcher to target as the only non-hitter of this group. His 4.11 FIP suggests the 4.91 ERA maybe wasn’t that unfair, but I’m bullish on his 25-year-old season being his best yet. Coming off a 2019 that saw him finish 4th in the NL Cy Young voting, the 2020 3.42 xFIP tells a better story. He was bit harder by the longball than in any other season, and the strikeouts are still elite. I think the division is going to be awful, and the addition of Nolan Arenado raises the water level for St. Louis across the board. Another top five Cy Young finish wouldn’t shock me at all, and I think he’s a dark horse to win it. Pitchers aren’t great investments, but this isn’t a long hold and at $12 I want to capitalize on what I expect to be a good year.
     
    2018 Topps Update Shohei Ohtani #US1 PSA 9 - $19.99
     
    There’s clearly a theme here in that the value of 2018 Topps baseball product remains untapped. Yes, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto are the headliners right now, but there’s a reason the boxes are at astronomical prices. Shohei Ohtani won the 2018 Rookie of the Year and has since been seen as slipping. While there’s no denying his 2020 was poor, 2019 featured an .848 OPS and 18 longballs in a season where he was kept off the mound. He’s back to pitching, looked great in his Spring Training debut, and remains the only player in history capable of both throwing 100 mph on the bump and launching balls over the fence with 100 mph exit velocities. If he’s anything close to what he was in 2018 or 19 at the plate, and even a middle of the rotation starter, his cards should rebound nicely.
     
    2018 Topps Rafael Devers #18 PSA 9 - $19.99
     
    Another 2018 entrant includes one of the young stars in Boston. I don’t expect the Red Sox to be any good in 2021, but Devers still seems entirely too slept on. He’s a year removed from a .916 OPS as a 22-year-old and plays in a premium market. Mookie Betts is gone, Andrew Benintendi is gone, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is gone. Devers gives the BoSox a face-of-the-franchise type hope and a rebound at age-24 should surge his cards upwards. ZiPS projects him for 3.2 fWAR and 32 dingers this season. He whiffed well above career norms in 2020 and getting back to a stronger level of plate discipline should aid his offensive game nicely.
     
    2015 Topps Kris Bryant #616 SGC 9.5 - $15
     
    There’s a lot of belief here, but there’s also an opportunity that I saw an undervalued offering given the slab it resides in. PSA 9’s of this same card goes for between $25-30 right now and despite SGC being more well known for vintage offerings, the 9.5 is a superior grade. Bryant is in his final year with the Cubs, one Chicago angled for by manipulating his service time all those years ago. He recently turned 29 and is coming off an injury plagued 2020. Throw out what took place during the pandemic and the Vegas native owns a career .901 OPS and posted a .903 mark in 2019. He should surpass the career 200 home run mark (needing 28) this season, and he’s playing for his first big payday. Health, most notably the back, remains a key question for him but otherwise the talent remains through the roof.
     
    Honorable Mentions:
     
    I was intentional in targeting quick flips with these players, but I think the shortstop class for 2022 is an equally appealing proposition. Unfortunately, graded copies of rookie offerings for Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez already fall beyond the rules for this exercise. I do also like Trea Turner quite a bit, and Gleyber Torres may be my favorite long term hold right now.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    We’re now less than a week away from the release of 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball. Earlier this week I attempted a video Q&A session; it didn’t go well. Given that medium isn’t my forte, I’m hardly surprised. Looking to provide value and accomplish a similar goal, the focus turned to a mailbag instead.
     
    Sourcing questions from readers and followers on Twitter, there should be a very good sample of talking points here. Without delay, let’s dive in.
     

     
    If you aren’t interested in ponying up for a player’s 1st Bowman card (autograph or otherwise) the next best thing value wise would be considered their first Topps Chrome autograph. Kirilloff isn’t going to be in Series 1 Flagship, instead debuting in Series 2. He should have Chrome autos in 2021, so waiting for those to drop would be the next best thing. Obviously the most economical route will be his Series 2 base card (or any number of the parallels).
     

     
    Hobby shops, along with a handful of online breakers, were how I got back into cards. Luckily, we have a handful of options in the Twin Cities area. My go to is Pal’s in Andover, but Real Breaks in Champlin has emerged as a new favorite as well. There’s a store in Golden Valley, and an option down near Woodbury. 2Bros is in Northtown Mall in Blaine, and Three Stars has locations in Bloomington and Little Canada. Hobby shops have the allure of immediate product, and many also sell singles for you to peruse through. There’s also the excitement or joy of just being in that type of environment with like-minded collectors as well.
     

     
    I have started to downsize my collection for a more focused approach. I only collect Twins, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani. Rather than stockpiling a bunch of base cards I rarely look through, I wanted to make sure I could appreciate what I have. That process worked backwards too in that I had some very nice cards I didn’t display, and them sitting in a box wasn’t desirable to me. I have a new space I am going to be outfitting soon, so we’ll see how things display when I’m done.
     

     
    Checking for retail has literally become a crapshoot. Pretty much any time I walk into Target or Walmart I’ll look and anticipate finding nothing. People have connections with distributors or simply wait for product to be put on the shelves. Wax isn’t that important to me since my PC is so narrowly focused. When I open, most of what I pull gets sold anyways. If I’m jonesing to rip something, I typically hit up a hobby shop.
     

     
    That’s tough as I’ve not heard of water getting into a slab before. However, it’s probably a good reminder about buying the card rather than the grade. In this situation it’s free so you win either way, but not all examples of cards at the same grade have the same appeal. I’ve kicked around buying a 1986 Fleer Jordan in a PSA 1 for a while but wanting the right one to move me before I actually make the purchase.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    All offseason I’ve been preaching that patience should be exhibited in regards to the Minnesota Twins. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned the benefit of doubt and shown that they are sound decision makers. Tonight, that came to fruition.
     
    After *missing* out on Marcus Semien as one of the interested parties, they quickly pivoted to the best defender in this free agent class. Andrelton Simmons, formerly of the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels, the Platinum Glove defender makes a tandem of sorts with Byron Buxton. He’s been worth 191 defensive runs saved over the course of his career. Paired with Josh Donaldson on the left side of Minnesota’s infield, opposing batters will face a black hole.
     
    As important as signing Simmons is, it’s also what the acquisition does for the roster construction of the Twins that makes a bigger splash. Jorge Polanco has been miscast as a shortstop for the entirety of his big-league career. His range is limited, and the arm strength has been problematic. Moving him to second base, he brings an offensive prowess that the position is often void of, and he moves a career 121 OPS+ hitter in Luis Arraez to super utility. Minnesota satisfied two separate needs with this one decision.
     
    Sure, it’s Polanco’s move to the other side of the diamond that will draw the immediate interest but being able to deploy Arraez all over the field is a great boost for Rocco Baldelli. The favorite to win a batting title can now spell guys on a regular basis, play corner outfield, and fill in at both second and third base. Arraez was initially mentioned as a trade chip to acquire pitching, and while I do still think the Twins flip players for another arm, this role seems to perfect of a fit for him to part with.
     
    Now that there’s some roster certainty thanks to Simmons sorting out the infield, there should be little waiting for Minnesota when it comes to Nelson Cruz. The reunion has always seemed like a logical one, and the designated hitter has been reported as not being universal for the upcoming season.
     
    We’ve waited all winter for moves to happen, and this Simmons signing feels like a dam breaking decision that gets the ball rolling in terms of locking everything else up. The Twins may look at holdovers on the relief market, but I’d hardly be shocked if their DH and starting pitching options aren’t decided upon quickly.
     
    The White Sox raced out to start the offseason, and the Padres have taken plenty of the spotlight, but this is a move that puts Minnesota right back on top of the Central.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Despite being less than a month from Spring Training (or at least as it’s presently scheduled) there’s still something like 75% of eligible free agents unsigned across baseball. Huge names like Bauer and Springer are homeless, and the Minnesota Twins specifically have four empty spots on their 40-man roster. Moves are coming, but who and when?
     
    I’ve thrown out a handful of names in this space as well as on Twitter this offseason, and now I’ll put some pen to paper. Using the Twins Daily created TwinsPayroll.com I plugged in names to a roster matrix. This would probably be a mix of what I’d like to see happen, and what I think is feasible.
     
    Starting Lineup
     
    Ultimately, I believe Nelson Cruz is back as the Twins designated hitter. That worries me as time is undefeated and he struggled down the stretch against fastballs in 2020. However, the fit is there, and I don’t know that we see a universal DH in 2021 (which is too bad). I’m hoping Minnesota avoids a two-year deal, and maybe an option for 2022 is enough to get that done. If it’s not Cruz, I’d prefer a two- or three-year pact with Marcel Ozuna or Michael Brantley. Both of them have positional flexibility, and a bit more long-term belief.
     
    It should be a no-brainer that Alex Kirilloff will take over for Eddie Rosario in left field. Sure, the Twins could play the service time game, but that would be short-sighted given their window of contention right now. Allow him to make his $600k and roll with your best option out there.
     
    There’s still plenty of reason to believe that Trevor Story could be a very good fit for this club through trade, and someone from the pool of Gregorious, Semien, or Simmons makes sense as well. I like the idea of one-year deals with the current roster construction, and there’s no reason why moving Jorge Polanco off of shortstop is a bad thing.
     
    Bench
     
    Ryan Jeffers is about the only player I’m confident in from this group. He and Mitch Garver should create a very solid backstop tandem, even if they’re both right-handed hitters. Jake Cave would make sense as the fourth outfielder, although I’d like to see Brent Rooker’s bat somewhere. Minnesota needs a utility player and signing either Kike Hernandez or Tommy La Stella is a good get there. I like Jurickson Profar the most of that group, but think he’ll get paid more than he’s ultimately worth. If you’re filling out the roster with an additional utility type, Travis Blankenhorn makes a lot of sense internally. I have no idea how this front office views former first-round pick Nick Gordon, but it would make sense for him to be in the conversation as well after a solid second season at Triple-A. The missed time in 2020 did him no favors, however.
     
    Starting Rotation
     
    There should be no pushback on Minnesota needing to acquire a fourth starter. The top three are solid and set, but another arm is a must. From the jump Jake Odorizzi looked like the second-best starter behind Trevor Bauer on the free agent market. He’s still out there, and there’s been buzz from other organizations having interest, but it would be nice to see him return healthy to the Twins. I still wonder if there’s not a good bit of reason to believe this arm could be acquired via trade, and anyone from Jon Gray to Sonny Gray could be exciting.
     
    Randy Dobnak has pitched himself into the conversation for earned starts, and whether that begins 2021 in the big-league rotation or as a first man up type, he should see plenty of work. Minnesota will likely unveil one or both of Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran this season but pushing all of those arms back a bit with starting depth seems necessary.
     
    Bullpen
     
    Although he’s the hometown guy, I’m not necessarily particular to Brad Hand. I do think someone of that ilk is a must though, and Trevor Rosenthal fits the bill. There are probably just three spots left to fill out the relief corps, and Cody Stashak should absolutely claim one of them. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have targeted a few waiver claims in the form of Ian Gibault and Brandon Waddell but there may only be room for one. Looking for this year’s Matt Wisler, the spring slate should sort that out.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    On Wednesday, the Minnesota Twins will need to decide whether or not they’ll tender a contract to left fielder Eddie Rosario for the 2021 Major League Baseball season. He's already been placed on outright waivers, so they would be negotiating for less than his projected arbitration value. A 4th round pick in 2010, he’s been in the organization for a decade since he was a 19-year-old. A changing of the guard could be coming involving a core player, and it’s worth looking back on the impact he’s had.
     
    Rosario was selected out of high school in Puerto Rico as a second basemen, and he stuck there pretty regularly through his first four professional seasons. At that point it was determined his arm was an underutilized asset, and his glove on the dirt simply wasn’t going to get the job done. By 2012 he’d cracked a top 100 prospect list (Baseball Prospectus) and prior to 2014 he landed 60th from the same publication.
     
    It was in 2014 that adversity caught up with Rosario a bit as he received a 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse. This was something that there had been rumblings about for some time but was brought to the forefront through the failed test. A maturation process was going to be necessary, and it was one that ultimately took place leading to a Major League debut in 2015.
     
    To this point the Twins have had Rosario play in 697 career games with a .277/.310/.478 slash line. His last four seasons have amounted to an .810 OPS and some of the breakout power potential that was expected from him. He contributed 32 dingers to the 2019 Bomba Squad’s tally, and despite lacking any real on-base presence, remained a run producer at the plate.
     
    In the outfield there’s been flashes of brilliance from a guy with such a strong right arm. Putting up gaudy DRS numbers on somewhat of a scattered basis, injury and an inconsistent motor are the only things that have held him back from entering elite territory when in the field. Any given night can result in Twitter faithful providing reminders not to run on his rocket arm, and that ability should carry well into his 30’s.
     
    Should Minnesota decide to non-tender their home-grown outfielder it won’t be due to lack of talent. The OPS hovering around .800 is a strong number, but an arbitration figure teetering on $10 million is quite a lot for a player that has replaceable qualities and is battling with internal talent expected to be as good or better.
     
    There should be no shock if Rosario goes elsewhere and flourishes. He did well with former Twins hitting coach James Rowson, and a mutual fit in Miami could make sense for a plethora of reasons. Rosario was among the prospects Twins fans waited on for years, and he’s parlayed that into six years of production that will be missed should his time be up.
     
    No matter what happens, Minnesota’s hot stove gets cooking forcibly sooner rather than later.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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