Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Ted Schwerzler

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,149

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    Taking cues from another Twitter conversation, seriously you're missing out if you aren't following along (find me at @tlschwerz), the creativity surrounding baseball moves has been a hot topic of late. When looking at how the Twins have handled player acquisition in recent years, there's something to be said about what has been done well, and well, what hasn't.
     
    I first got to thinking about this after reading a very well thought out piece over on Twins Daily. In it, Bill Parker sparks the conversation in regards to what the Twins could have done differently during their years of losing. Payroll and debates about contracts have generally surrounded the mid-market Twins. It's been a point of contention for the fan base, and likely will continue to be. The biggest takeaway from the piece comes down to smart spending, and the lack thereof.
     
    Parker discusses past free agent contracts, and what the Twins might have passed on during their seasons of 90 loss seasons. While Terry Ryan and the Twins took dart throws to the effect of a marginal amount of added victories, a big splash likely would not have saved those teams from themselves either. Unfortunately, it's that strategy that continues to be employed when it shouldn't be.
     
    That brings us to Mike Bates' piece on Twins Daily. Bates discusses the Twins continuing to operate in a similar manner, despite the situation. While I can nitpick at pieces that I may or may not agree with throughout the article (we all know I think Sano can work in right field), there's a much larger point being hit on. Bates makes two points that should become a virtual backbone when discussing any roster configuration Minnesota employs.
     
    He says, "The Twins have a profound lack of ambition in virtually everything they do." Furthering the point, he contends, "Instead of attempting to sign a single free agent starter with a higher upside at some point over the last three years (like a Jordan Zimmermann, a Jon Lester or a Johnny Cueto), and maybe a relative lottery ticket in Hughes, the Twins took small bites at the apple."
     
    This leads us to the crux of this piece, and some examples of points in which the Twins seem to get it, and where they don't.
     
    Over the past few years, the Twins have spent significant money on three starting pitchers. Phil Hughes was given a three-year, $24 million deal in 2013 that was then extended another two seasons. Following that splash, Minnesota then inked Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal. Rounding out the group, the next offseason saw the Twins land Ervin Santana on a $55 million contract spanning four seasons.
     
    Regardless of how the production has looked, only two of those moves ever made sense the day they were signed. With free agent contracts being earned off of past production, and some hope for an immediate return, pushing on upside is where a middle-of-the-road team like the Twins should be. Both Santana and Hughes had glints of upside.
     
    Hughes owned an ERA in 2013 nearly three points lower on the road (3.88) than at Yankee Stadium (6.32). Getting out of the homer friendly park suggested he could be a significantly more effective pitcher in a different venue. That narrative immediately proved true in 2014, and despite 2015 regression, still had him post his third best ERA since 2011. For Santana, he was a guy that had a solid track record of an ERA somewhere in the middle-to-high three range. He was experienced in the AL, and posted one of his best seasons as a pro with the Royals just a year prior. Again, upside loomed large for the Twins.
     
    On the opposite side of the spectrum, Nolasco checked himself in. A career National League pitcher (spending eight year with the Marlins and briefly the Dodgers), a mediocre at best 4.37 ERA suggested who he was. His 3.76 FIP mark and 7.4 K/9 were more than likely only going to decrease in the less favorable, American League. Despite plenty of detractors, the Twins made him a $12 million man.
     
    Similar misses have been made on much smaller scale minor league deals as well. It's more than fair to argue nearly any minor league deal has no downside for a major league club, the Twins don't always leave themselves much upside when looking to bring those types of veterans into the fold.
     
    While all minor league transactions may be low risk, they are not created equal. Asking for upside to be proven or earned rather than assumed is something that squeezes more from even the most minor acquisitions. That very suggestion came about recently from a commenter suggesting dart throws as nothing more than that. It's unfair to assume however that a guy like Blaine Boyer (coming off a 2.93 FIP) wouldn't be a better use of a spring invite, than the walking corpse of Jason Kubel (who had been demoted to the minors hitting .216).
     
    Ideally, a 25 man roster isn't going to be reliant upon a player looking to make the club following a minor league deal. Picking statistical inefficiencies to exploit no doubt helps to push contributions upward if you're going to take a flier however. There's belief behind Fernando Abad working, and Carlos Quentin is a worthy flier. If you had to bet on another Jason Kubel type though, you'd no doubt hope Ryan would aim higher.
     
    Creativity is a very broad term, and employing it while 29 other terms are working towards the same goal is a tough ask. That said, looking for the Twins to target a more serious ceiling in free agency, rather than just checking a box is a safe place to start. Hoping for the dart throws to be aimed more towards the bullseye rather than just hitting the board is something else fair to ask for. No one expects Terry Ryan to reinvent the wheel, but having a more direct focus is something the Twins could afford to embrace.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Now with every Major League Baseball team having hit their pitcher and catcher report dates, the upcoming season feels as close as ever. Despite snow being on the ground yet in some parts of the country, baseball is ready to bring back the feelings of summer. Prior to the action kicking off however, we have to take a look at how things are expected to play out.
     
    Back in January, I outlined how I saw the AL Central taking shape. With the World Champion Kansas City Royals again pacing the group, it was a collection of five teams with no clear cut favorite. Now that the Las Vegas Superbook has unveiled it's over/under wins totals for each team, it's time to break down what makes sense in baseball's closest division.
     
    Cleveland Indians 85.5
     
    Yesterday (February 21, 2016) I offered up the following opinion on Twitter, "Despite being the favorite at multiple outlets, I have no faith in the Indians ability to win the AL Central in 2016." Hilariously, that tweet ended up going viral thanks to the Indians official account being a bit less than thrilled with my subtweet.
     
    Regardless of the feelings coming from the club itself, I stand by that thought process. Cleveland's rotation is good, with an opportunity to be very good. The question is whether or not that offense can score enough runs. I don't see the Indians winning the central, and 86 wins may accomplish that. When it comes to Terry Francona's group, I'm taking a pass.
     
    Verdict: Under
     
    Kansas City Royals 83.5
     
    Let's be clear, I've been down on the Royals for quite some time, and continued to be even after their World Series loss of 2014. That being said, the time in which I continue to scoff at Ned Yost's club has come and gone. Going into the 2016 season, Kansas City absolutely has to be the favorite to win the AL Central.
     
    Sure, the Royals rotation is an absolute joke, and their offense is very likely going to take a step backwards. I don't believe in Lorenzo Cain being an MVP candidate for a second straight year, and while I'd love for Mike Moustakas to replicate his 2015, I think he more or less takes a slight step backwards. When the dust settles though, this club knows how to win, and they should do so more than 84 times.
     
    Verdict: Over
     
    Detroit Tigers 80.5
     
    Laying some ground work here, I don't like the Tigers, and neither do the over/under numbers. 81 wins would constitute a .500 season, but would also be an increase of eight wins from where Detroit finished in 2015. For a team that is looking to stave off regression, it's a worthy cause that may not end up playing out.
     
    The Tigers have plenty of questions coming into the 2016 season surrounding their current roster. What Justin Verlander is going to be available? Can Anibal Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera stay healthy? What kind of contributions will manager Brad Ausmus get (or need) from a relatively poor farm system? At the end of the day, the Tigers should be better than they were a year ago, but the eight win jump is probably a bit too rich for my taste.
     
    Verdict: Under
     
    Chicago White Sox 80.5
     
    The White Sox are an interesting team to peg in 2016. They spent relatively heavily last offseason, and ended up falling flat. Totaling just 76 wins last season, there's no doubt manager Robin Ventura was hoping for significantly better. Improvement should be coming this season however.
     
    Unlike the Tigers, the White Sox rotation is actually good, and has youth on its side. Chris Sale is among baseball's best pitchers, and having Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon behind him makes for a fearsome trio. The offense will continue to be formidable for Chicago, especially considering additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. If I'm taking a bottom of the division team to make a turnaround, it's the White Sox.
     
    Verdict: Over
     
    Minnesota Twins 79.5
     
    In 2015, few teams in baseball were more lucky than Minnesota. With runners in scoring position, the Twins generated hits at a ridiculous pace. They found themselves coming up big in clutch situations far more often than not, and there's no doubt the win category thanked them for it. What's unfortunate about all of those facts is that they are unrepeatable from a conscious standpoint.
     
    Looking at the Central as a whole, there's probably no team with a higher probability than the Twins to win it, or finish dead last. Minnesota is going to be able to pitch, and should have both an improved staff and pen from a season ago. The offense will be there, and should have a lot of pop, but there's going to be a ton of strikeouts. Paul Molitor's group will need things to go their way more often than not. It could happen, but it also very likely may not.
     
    Verdict: Over
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins had a serious need when it came to relief pitching. While left-handed arms were in short supply, the relief corps as a whole needed a jolt. Instead of forking over big money on the ever-inflating relief market, Terry Ryan and the Twins went a different route. Much like Blaine Boyer the year before, the club offered a minor league deal to Fernando Abad.
     
    On the surface, Abad's deal doesn't really move the needle, but what happens when the performance does?
    A season ago, Abad pitched in 62 games logging 47.2 IP for the Oakland Athletics. He tallied a 4.15 ERA backed by an ugly 5.50 FIP. It was no doubt the Abad's worst big league numbers since his 2012 season with the Astros. Despite his K/9 numbers holding strong at 8.5 (a career best), he also walked 3.6 per nine (his worst effort since 2012). The Twins however, believe that Abad was tipping his pitches, and they may be on to something.
     
    Minnesota needs relief help, and if they can unlock what Abad was in 2014, they may have found something at a very low price. For the Athletics in 2014, Abad owned a 1.57 ERA across 57.1 IP. He put up an 8.0 K/9 rate and walked a respectable 2.4 per nine. It was easily the best campaign he's put together as a big leaguer.
     
    Then there's the fact that Abad has been equally as competitive against both right and left-handed batters. Over his big league career, Abad has allowed a .253/.330/.423 slash line to righties and a .254/.304/.411 line to lefties. Far more than just a situational lefty, Abad if gotten back on track, could provide the Twins something they have not had in quite some time.
     
    Previously filling the role Minnesota is hoping Abad takes over, was Brian Duensing. Duensing's numbers have never been what Abad's are. The former Twins lefty-reliever struck no one out, walked too many, and more often than not, pitched to significantly too much contact. Also, while being good against lefties (allowing a .238/.289/.325 slash line), he's been easily hit off of by righties (.292/.352/.462 line). With Duensing out of the picture, the Twins have plenty of room to improve.
     
    No doubt Abad will have to turn away some unfortunate 2015 developments. He allowed hard hit contact 35% of the time last season, a number nearly 10% worse than his career average. He also watched as 17.2% of fly balls left the yard, a six percent bump over his career total. Then there's the fact that his fastball dropped nearly two miles per hour in velocity. In fact, it was slower than any at any point since 2012.
     
    If Minnesota believes that Abad's struggles were a direct result of him tipping his pitches, that's one thing. Having seen enough film to notice that there were indications of what type of pitch was coming, this is more than a plausible belief. What the Twins have to figure out is how to reverse Abad's rhythm out of the situation he developed a year ago, and also help him to fix some of those ugly detractors.
     
    At the end of the day, it's very possibly that Neil Allen takes Abad on as a project, rights the ship, and the Twins snag a very quality MLB reliever for next to nothing. Should things all go wrong, the risk isn't all that great either, but the club may be left searching for left-handed answers.
     
    Regardless of how it plays out, a swap of Fernando Abad for Brian Duensing is a win for the Twins bullpen, and there's more reason to believe it works than there isn't.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2015, the Minnesota Twins saw the year of the position player. With Eddie Rosario leading the charge during spring training, and into the regular season, Paul Molitor watched as his 25 man roster was transformed with youth. One of baseball's best farm systems is far from depleted after a handful of graduations, but growth now needs to take place. For two former first round picks, the year ahead couldn't be any more important.
     
    Enter Kohl Stewart and Travis Harrison.
     
    Earlier this week, Jim Crikket highlighted both of these two players in his Prospects of Top Prospects piece. His assessment was that while both have a pedigree of performing, and have struggled through professional hiccups thus far, a resurgence is coming. While I'd like to find myself on that side of the fence, I'm not quite as sure as to what's next for both former first round picks.
     
    The latter was the 50th overall pick by the Twins in the 2011 Major League Baseball draft. Hailing from Tustin High School in California, Harrison was drafted as a third basemen that could potentially shift to the outfield. To date in his professional career, he's stuck at a single level every season, and generally played against players as much as two years older than himself.
     
    Through 433 minor league games, Harrison has compiled a slash line of .261/.366/.391. While not dreadful by any means, it's disappointing to note that the development hasn't followed the expected path. Player either infield or outfield on the corners, Harrison was expected to generate more pop with his bat. After a 15 home run season at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2013, he's followed that performance up by hitting just three and five long balls at Fort Myers and Chattanooga respectively.
     
    Looking at him as a whole, Harrison does a handful of things well. He's taken more than 60 walks each of the past three seasons, and he has clubbed more than 20 doubles at each of his last three stops as well. What's working against the former high school draftee is that he hasn't developed into doing anything exceptionally. Playing positions with organizational depth, he's at a point where he could get lost behind better talent.
     
    Should Minnesota continue the trajectory that has followed Harrison thus far, he should be playing his age 23 season at Triple-A Rochester. Once again significantly younger than much of the competition, he'll have to show he can handle himself. In the outfield in upstate New York, he'll have plenty of battery mates. The signings of Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Sweeney, and Carlos Quentin all need fall in somewhere. Those names also don't include the likely promotion of Double-A teammate Adam Brett Walker.
     
    For Harrison, the year ahead is a critical one. Having now filled into his body, production at the next level will be about taking a significant step forward. Can he flash some exceptional ability in a few different categories that help him force his way into the Twins future plans. Not looking to get bench players that high in the draft, Minnesota is no doubt hoping it happens.
     
    That brings us to the former player, and one whose situation is also much more dire. Kohl Stewart, the 4th overall pick out of St. Pius X High School in Texas during the 2013 Major League Baseball Draft, is at a much more significant crossroads. Having the pedigree of a top five pick, expectations for the pitcher were through the roof, and they haven't been close to being met.
     
    Stewart's first 20 professional innings, spent in the Appalachian and Gulf Coast Leagues, were dominant as expected. He totaled just a 1.35 ERA and struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings. From there though, the story differs. Pitching in 87 innings at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2014, Stewart's arm went through it's first issues. There were injuries due to should fatigue, and his electrifying stuff produced just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. His 2.59 ERA was still sparkling, but the secondary numbers all left a significant amount to be desired.
     
    Heading into the 2015 season, Stewart made tweaks in his workout routine in hopes of conditioning himself for professional baseball. A Texas A&M quarterback recruit, he had spent a significant amount of time focusing on football, and throwing one, in his not so distant past. His belief was that a new throwing program would help to elevate his game during the 2015 season, while also providing him a more clean bill of health.
     
    Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Stewart played all of 2015 with High-A Fort Myers, throwing a career high 129.1 innings. His ERA remained solid at 3.20, but his peripherals once again took a step backwards. In the Florida State League, Kohl fanned just 4.9 batters per nine innings, while walking a career high 3.1 per nine. His 134 hits surrendered put him over a hit per inning, and his 1.384 WHIP was no longer reflective of the dominant prospect he was billed as.
     
    Having peaked on prospect lists at number 28 overall by Baseball Prospectus, Stewart has dropped out of the top 100 all together heading into 2016. His declining strikeout rates along with arm concerns have gained more recognition than anyone would have hoped. There's no doubt the year ahead is a massive one for the Texas native.
     
    Whether Stewart heads to Double-A Chattanooga out of spring training, or is handed a locker for a brief time in Fort Myers, he's going to need to distance himself from his previous two seasons worth of results. Once projected as a top of the rotation arm, Stewart is trending in the wrong direction. To right the ship, sparking his strikeout totals while staying healthy no doubt has to be the focus in the year ahead.
     
    For the Twins, the farm system is still filled with a ton of depth talent that should contribute at the major league level. What Terry Ryan can't have however, is first round picks that end up not panning out. Both Harrison and Stewart are no doubt on board with wanting more from themselves, the year ahead is one in which we should see what happens next.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason, few areas had more of an emphasis on them than that of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. While the situation as a whole needed addressing, it was the left handed contingent that no doubt left the most to be desired. Having significant deficiencies in late innings a season ago cost the Twins, and there appears to be two strategies at play when it comes to fixing things moving forward.
     
    On the left-handed side of the relief picture, the Twins have moved on from roster staple Brian Duensing. Arguably sticking with him a year or so too long, Duensing was the epitome of the Twins shortcomings in relief a season ago. He owned a pedestrian 4.25 ERA, stuck no one out (4.4 K/9) and walked too many batters (3.9 BB/9). Heading into 2016 with Glen Perkins as the lone left handed option, the Twins needed to seek outside help.
     
    In scouring the market, the deal the New York Mets handed to Antonio Bastardo (2 years, $12m) seemingly provides the most uproar when it comes to the Twins handling of their pen. An affordable deal in an otherwise ballooning relief market, Bastardo on his own could have made sense for Minnesota. With how Minnesota acted prior to him being signed however, their stance on the left all but makes sense.
     
    Early on in the offseason, the Twins targeted left-handed reliever Fernando Abad, formerly of the Oakland Athletics. His K/9 rate (8.5) was a career high a season ago, but it was the ugly ERA (4.15) and FIP (5.50) numbers, along with decreased velocity (down nearly 2 mph on his fastball) that led to him earning just an MiLB deal. The Twins were noted to believe that Abad had been tipping his pitches per LaVelle Neal, and Parker Hageman of Twins Daily broke that down wonderfully. What the signing of Abad indicates is a stance in belief of an internal process, and the work of pitching coach Neil Allen.
     
    Minnesota is almost assuredly going to roll with Abad come Opening Day. Brought in as a non-roster invitee to spring training, Abad has the potential to earn a couple million should he make the team. In using this approach, Terry Ryan put faith in his coaches, as well as the internal belief that Abad has more to offer. From the moment the deal was struck, it became illogical for the Twins to offer a multi-year deal with Bastardo or anyone else of similar situation.
     
    Had the Twins decided to bring in a more certain left-handed reliever, and on a multi-year deal, the plan with Abad likely would have been moot prior to even getting off of the ground. Sticking to the belief that he will work had to be the plan all the way through. As an insurance policy should things go wrong, the Twins could look to double down on another MiLB type deal.
     
    Internally, Minnesota would turn to the likes of Mike Strong, Pat Dean, or Taylor Rogers for left-handed relief. A more proven veteran option could include someone like Neal Cotts or Matt Thornton. Both have the likely possibility of landing an MLB deal, but Minnesota could ask nonetheless. With the Abad situation playing out as it has however, the Twins are best served to put no one in front of him for a roster spot at this point.
     
    That leads us to the second strategy that Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins seem to be leaning towards. Although one of the largest roster issues at the top is relief pitching, it's actually one of the organizations greatest strengths as well. On the farm, the likes of Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, J.T. Chargois, and Mason Melotakis are not far off. Obviously varying in expectations, each of them could be called upon to be key contributors in relief during the 2016 season.
    On the right-handed side of the bullpen, Minnesota decided to make no moves. Although Brandon Kintzler was brought into the fold, he appears to be more minor league depth than anything. There was no move for Tyler Clippard, or anyone else of significant substance for that matter. By all estimations, that should signify an aggressive approach internally.
     
    The Twins won't be moving on from Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, or Trevor May any time soon, but that would appear to be where the sure things in the bullpen end. Should Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin or someone else falter, pulling performers that have been drafted in the organization is a noble idea. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, and even Alex Meyer all have the ability to bring a level of velocity and strikeout totals not witnessed in relief for Minnesota in quite some time. The biggest contingent to this strategy is Minnesota actually following through on it.
     
    Having not made guaranteed moves at the major league level, Minnesota cannot be shy about aggressively asking its prospects to come up and contribute. I see the group of Burdi, Chargois, and Reed all making a big league debut by the end of July, and that would be a successful follow up to the way the offseason was handled. Slow playing those prospects while not making a more certain move at the top would remain contradictory.
     
    As things stand now, the Twins are still likely listening in on what the market is dictating. The two worst moves that they could make at this point are simple however. Signing a left-handed reliever to a multi-year deal for guaranteed money, or signing any right-handed pitcher to anything but a multi-year deal. We've addressed the former and the implications it would have against any strategy employed with Fernando Abad. The latter, barring Tyler Clippard walking through the door, would negate a desire to reap the fruits of your system. A caveat to the second situation, is that Ryan and company must follow through by going internal for a relief boost.
     
    On paper, it appears that the Twins have more strategy than they are being credited with when it comes to filling out the pen. It remains to be seen whether or not that ends up resulting in action.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Before each of you busted out the family traditions, started sipping egg nog, and threw on the Yule Log, I gave an opportunity for Off The Baggy to be the giver of a last minute Christmas gift. In sharing your 2016 Minnesota Twins storyline, an entry to win a copy of the 2016 Twins Prospect Handbook was on the table.
     
    After receiving a handful of entries, there were two that stuck out the most. First, all the way from the Cezch Republic, Matt Findlay provided some really great thoughts. Here was his entry:
     
    If I had to pick an individual storyline, I'd focus on Berrios. Steamer has six guys projected to make more starts than Berrios. All of them have ERAs and FIPs over 4.00, and none of them have a k/9 rate over 7. If they are going to take the next step, they need a homegrown frontline starter, and it certainly looks like Meyer and May aren't going slot at the front of a rotation. Hopefully Berrios will at least show flashes that he could be a top of the rotation guy.
     
    I actually think the bigger storyline centers on Terry Ryan. How will the Twins try to improve their chances at winning a series in the near future? We saw the Astros and Royals build excellent farm systems over the past few years, and some of those prospects obviously played key roles for them last year. On the other hand, they both made aggressive deals for veterans (Royals sending Myers and Odorizzi for Shields and Davis, Astros dealing for Gomez and now Giles).
     
    It will be very interesting to see if Ryan is willing to part with minor league players in order to acquire guys that can stamp the Twins as legitimate contenders. It seems like he might want to go the conservative route to avoid losing a future star, but sometimes you need to give up some promising talents in order to fill immediate needs. It will certainly interesting to see how he plays the next couple of years.
     
    Not only do I think Matt hits Berrios being a big contributor right on the head, but his secondary point looms incredibly large. As I've said here at Off The Baggy multiple times this offseason, Minnesota is well positioned to take the next step. Terry Ryan has turned away from making the big move that could elevate the club, and at some point, that may end up hurting him.
    Although accumulating prospects is a very nice situation to have, it's about elevating the ceiling at the highest level. Ryan has not followed suit with other up and coming teams in terms of acquiring top tier major league talent. For better or worse, we're about to find out how this ends.
     
    The second winning entry came from Kirby Grutz, who focused on the resurgence of a familiar face. Here's what he had to say:
     
    I believe this season we will see the Joe Mauer of old, the one who was selected to six All-Star Games and hammered his way to five Silver Slugger awards before all of his concussions forced his transition to first base. With the other big sluggers (Park, Sano) throughout the lineup, Mauer won't feel the weight on his back to bring all of the horsepower to the Twins lineup. Like the days of old, Big Joe's bat will come alive, and we'll see his batting average floating north of .300 once again.
     
    Great things are going to happen in 2016 and our home town man Joe Mauer will be the driving force behind the Twins change in play.
     
    No doubt Kirby sees some serious resurgence from Mauer, a guy who has struggled mightily the past few seasons. While I'm not quite as high on Mauer as the paragraph above, I believe we see his production trend back upwards in 2016. After hitting well in clutch situations a year ago, I think Mauer produces in more skill driven categories in the year ahead.
    I won't be surprised if Mauer is able to drive his batting average upwards by being a bit more aggressive. The aggression doesn't need to come from swinging earlier or more often, but instead finding his pitch and comfortably driving it to either the opposite or pull side of the field. In 2015, it felt as though Mauer had too much of a concentrated approach trying to accomplish singular goals (power, pull, etc.). Expecting him to settle back in to a complimentary lineup piece, his plus hitting ability should show once again.
     
    There's no doubt that 2016 is set up as a big year for the Twins. A team that over-achieved a year ago, it's team to substantiate that the performance was real. If either of these storylines play out, Paul Molitor's team should be in a good place.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the 2015 season, the Minnesota Twins had a handful of players that were going into prove it seasons. With youth starting to show up at the major league level, it would be a newly appointed first-year manager Paul Molitor to get the most out of his team. Pushing for a playoff spot and winning more than half of the teams games, Molitor did that, but regression still showed up.
     
    Probably most notable in terms of regression was Danny Santana. As a 23 year-old, Santana burst onto the scene manning the outfield for Minnesota. Slashing .319/.353/.472 in his first big league season, the Dominican Republic product had made a great first impression. Unfortunately the numbers were inflated due to a ridiculous .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
     
    Santana was a candidate for extreme regression this past year, and it hit hard. He played 91 games for the Twins but slashed just .214/.241/.291 ending the season on the farm. Kennys Vargas saw a similar strong 2014 finish turn into an ugly 2015. Vargas followed up a .274/.316/.456 2014 line with a .240/.277/.349 line in 2015. He spent time at both Double and Triple-A getting into just 58 big league games.
     
    With the Twins looking to improve upon a promising 2015 season, there's a few players that regression could get to. For Molitor, it's about making the impact be felt at a significantly lesser level than that of Santana, Vargas, or even Kurt Suzuki in 2015.
     
    It's a very curious situation when it comes to Miguel Sano, but there's some reason to believe he could experience regression in year two. After slashing .269/.385/.530 in his first 80 big league games, Sano set the bar high. His 18 homers and 52 runs batted in were more than impressive. What causes some concern is the 119 strikeouts, a pace that would have blown by a team record and likely led the big leagues.
     
    Like Santana before him, Sano had a high BABIP (.396) a year ago. What is different however is that it's probably sustainable. With a 43.2% of balls being of the hard hit category, Sano makes any batted ball he puts in play a difficult ask to field nearly half of the time. He also hit line drives at just under a 25% clip a season ago. Both of those revelations should bolster a respectable BABIP throughout his career.
     
    Looking into Sano's strikeouts, there's two numbers the Twins slugger should be most focused on. In 2015, Sano swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 25.9% of the time. He also swung and missed at 15.7% of pitches. Should the slugger be able to decrease either of those marks, the expectation that his power trumps the whiff rate will remain extremely high.
     
    Another guy with some uncertain peripherals going forward is standout left fielder, Eddie Rosario. After bursting onto the scene in a fashion very similar to Santana, it was Rosario who would have been the nicer asset to see moved instead of Aaron Hicks. Unfortunately, most teams around the big leagues see the same red flags when it comes to the Puerto Rican.
     
    In his first big league season, Rosario put up a nice .267/.289/.459 slash line. The ugly number in there is that middle one however. Rosario struck out 118 times in 122 games while drawing just 15 walks. For all of his advanced metrics ranking extremely well defensively, it's the offensive ones that scream warning.
     
    Rosario is far from a hulking hitter. Sure he collected 15 triples and slugged 13 homers, but he hit the ball hard just 29% of the time. On top of that, calling Rosario a free-swinger would be a massive understatement. Across his 2015 at bats, Rosario swung at pitches outside of the strike zone a ridiculously 46% of the time. Despite chasing far too often, it is worth noting that he swung and missed just 14.5% of the time, less than that of Sano.
     
    It's probably not in the cards for the Twins to completely redefine Rosario's approach. The task for Tom Brunansky though is going to be getting Rosario to develop a more professional approach in the box. Rather than chasing the marginal pitches, sit and wait for his pitch more of the time. The walk rate absolutely has to increase, and continuing on the current trajectory could provide cause for concern.
     
    Going forward, there's little reason to believe that Miguel Sano is anything but a contributor for the Twins. Rosario remains a much riskier proposition in that department. Sano's ceiling is only going to be limited by the strikeouts he can shave off, while Rosario may have hit his without a retooled approach at the plate.
     
    The Twins don't have as many major causes for concern in the regression department as they did a season ago, but both Sano and Rosario's 2016 approach is one worth monitoring.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    More often than not, the Minnesota Twins don't take the stage front and center when the audience becomes national. As a small market club, the organization is more noticed for being the underdog story it was during the 2015 season. However, with the Twins signing of Byung Ho Park, this offseason has provided a handful of fireworks already.
     
    Looking to get more of a national perspective on the state of the Twins, and where the belief the the organization is going, I had the privilege of speaking with Chris Cotillo. Cotillo covers Major League Baseball over at SB Nation's MLB Daily Dish. He's a Lead Writer there, and is often noticed breaking stories all around the league.
     
    Gaining momentum as a national source after breaking the Ricky Nolasco signing, Cotillo has a special tie to the Twins. Here's how he see the organization now and going forward:
     
    Off The Baggy: Last season, the Twins were one of the most surprising teams in all of baseball. With the production and season they had, what surprised you most about the team in Paul Molitor's first year?
    Chris Cotillo: I think everyone who covers baseball was surprised to see them hang in until the end like they did. They really showed a great mix of veteran leadership (Hunter, Mauer) and young talent (Sano) and overcame significant adversity (Santana suspension) along the way.
    OTB: With a farm system ready to overflow, the Twins should have plenty of top tier youth contributing at the big league level this season. What do you think are some realistic expectations for Byron Buxton in the season ahead?
     
    CC: Buxton has taken a backseat to many other young stars around the game, but I think it's time for a breakout campaign from him. Center field is his now after the Twins traded Hicks, so I expect him to be an everyday star there who can show his five-tool abilities in a prolonged major-league stint. It's tough to predict stats for someone who does so many things well, but I have high expectations.
    OTB: In somewhat of a surprising move, the Twins ended up winning the bid for Korean slugger, Byung Ho Park. What do you see Park contributing during his first year in the big leagues?
     
    CC: Pretty much everyone was surprised by that move, and it will definitely set off a chain reaction of moving parts involving Mauer, Plouffe and Sano. Park will provide some pop in the middle of the order at a time where right-handed power is at a premium.
    OTB: Looking at the free agent market, the Twins biggest offseason deficiencies were behind the plate and in the bullpen. They traded for John Ryan Murphy to fix their catching woes, but do you see them making any signings the rest of the way? If so, some names to watch?
     
    CC: I could see a couple of bullpen additions for sure. There are tons of second-tier relievers out there behind O'Day-- Soria, Kelley, Lowe, Badenhop, Hunter, Madson among them.
    OTB: Speaking of John Ryan Murphy, what is your take on the Aaron Hicks trade? Classic swap of two players better fit in their new situation, or did the Twins give up on Hicks just as he was about to get going?
     
    CC: I really like the trade for both sides, it is the classic change-of-scenery deal. Murphy was obviously blocked by McCann in New York, and as I said before, it's Buxton time in Minnesota. Hicks may break out and be a long-term option for the Yankees in center, but Twins fans will have to look back and remember that this trade truly did make sense at the time.
    OTB: Minnesota no doubt has playoff aspirations in 2016 after the season they just had. An increased level of talent should be on the 25 man throughout the season, but what one thing needs to improve for them to get back to the Postseason?
     
    CC: For me, the rotation is a little bit scary. If they are going to be serious about a postseason run next season, I would like for them to trade from that deep farm system and get a bona fide ace.
     
    While Cotillo is just one of the many national writers covering the game as a whole, the Twins have pushed the envelope and are begging to be noticed. After a strong 2015 and an aggressive start to the offseason, 2016 should continue that trend in a big way.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    n following the Minnesota Twins throughout the Major League Baseball season, there's always one person that remains synonymous with victory. Following a walk off win, or a dominant starting performance, there's always that one person there to break down just how impressive it was. Often being caught up in the Gatorade shower, that person is going to be a different face in the upcoming 2016 season.
     
    After Fox Sports North announced the departure of Jamie Hersch near the end of the 2015 season, the role went into limbo. The face that would be sharing the excitement of each Twins win on the way to a hopeful playoff berth in 2016 was now void, until it wasn't. Enter Audra Martin.
     
    A University of Central Florida graduate (we won't hold their current football struggles against her), Martin comes to Twins Territory from Nashville, Tennessee. Having Midwestern roots, both baseball and hockey rank at the top of her sports loves. There's no better way to understand what she will bring to the diamond however than to get those answers directly from herself.
     
    I had the opportunity to speak with Audra on the Twins, the move to Minnesota, and the excitement that lies ahead. Here's what she had to say:
     
    Off The Baggy: Minnesotans are familiar with UCF thanks to the popularity of Daunte Culpepper. As your alma mater, was it there that the decision to venture into sports broadcasting was born?
     
    Audra Martin: It was! Most people are surprised to learn that I actually applied to college as a Criminal Justice major. For my entire life, as long as I can remember, my dream was to be a police officer. Then as I got older, the plan was to eventually get my Masters and apply for the FBI. After my first year at UCF, my GPA was high enough to allow me to apply to restricted programs and when I was looking at the list, Radio-Television was the one that jumped out. I’m not sure why, but a light bulb just went off. I changed my major to RTV- Broadcast Journalism but still graduated with a minor in Criminal Justice.
     
    OTB: Having come to Fox Sports North from Tennessee, baseball wasn't something the market presented often. What do your baseball roots look like and what are you most excited about in
    working with the Twins?
     
    AM: I actually grew up a HUGE baseball fan. I know coming from Chicago has some Minnesota fans a bit skeptical of my fandom...so I have to own it right? But at least I grew up a Cubs fan and not a Sox fan right?? After college I decided I wasn’t ready to dive right into a broadcasting career but I knew I wanted to work in sports so I took a job in the front office of the Atlanta Braves. It was an awesome experience, but it also was an eye-opening experience in the sense that it made me realize that I really did want to be in broadcasting and that the front office type job wasn’t for me. Then once I was working in Nashville, I got to cover the Nashville Sounds who were the Triple A affiliate for the Brewers and now the A’s.
    As far as working with the Twins, the thing that most excites me is simply the fact of getting to know a new team and organization that is certainly on the verge of some very exciting times. Plus, I’ve heard nothing but AWESOME things about the whole organization...the employees, players and the fans!
     
    OTB: Covering the Wild currently, is there a sport you find yourself leaning towards most, or is there a relatively shared level of comfort across the board?
     
    AM: That question is such a reminder of how blessed and lucky I feel to have gotten this job. It whole-heartedly is my dream job. My two favorite sports have always been baseball and hockey. Don’t get me wrong, I love football and had a blast covering the Titans the last two years, but far and away, baseball and hockey are my first loves. To be covering those two sports year round has me pinching myself everyday.
     
    OTB: Looking ahead the the 2016 Twins season, it's shaping up to be one of the most important and
    anticipated in the past five years. What has you most intrigued about the year ahead?
     
    AM: How great is that! When I heard this job was opening up I knew a big focus would be on hockey and then when I was reminded that I would get to cover the Twins as well, talk about an amazing opportunity. To start this kind of job when the team is primed to make the playoffs...again pinch me. I think was most excites me is to see how this team comes firing right out of the gate. When you look at how last year ended, coming SO close but ending just short, you can’t help but think back to some of the earlier games when things just weren’t clicking for some of the team. Those early to mid-season games are a grind no doubt, but we saw that they can be the difference from spending October in the dugout or on the couch. So I want to see them come out with the same fervor and intensity that we saw towards the end of the season. And of course, who isn’t excited to see what kind of sophomore season Sano can put together!
     
    OTB: With Tennessee being surrounded by National League teams such as the Reds, Cardinals, and
    Braves, the Twins probably weren't on your radar. Prior to taking the role with Fox Sports North, what did your knowledge of the Twins look like?
     
    AM: Well, just being a baseball fan I’ve always have a pretty good feel for what’s going on with most teams. The Twins are no exception, especially just because of what was going on towards the end of the season. I’m a sucker for a great underdog and watching a team like the Twins exceed a lot of critics expectations was awesome. Have I spent more time around National League teams...sure...but that just means Twins fans can rest assured knowing I’ll be working extra hard to learn everything there is to know about this team. Again, that’s the fun part and I’m already well into the process!
     
    OTB: As a Midwestern native, and outside of the harsh Minnesota winter, what challenges are you most looking forward to overcoming in working with a new market at Fox Sports North?
     
    AM: Well, you definitely read my mind about the biggest concern. I am originally from Chicago so I should be used to the cold, but living in the south for the last 11 years has made me soft! Besides that, I think the biggest challenge is just learning a whole new market and new teams. At the same time though, that’s the fun part. I also knew coming into this role that I was taking over for an incredibly talented and well liked person. I’ve always admired Jamie’s work, and I know the fans have too. I’m not here to replace Jamie, but instead take the awesome foundation she left behind and add my style and personality to it. It’s tough and I know some viewers may take some time to win over but I’m really honored to have been given the chance to do it!
     
    OTB: Obviously with an already impressive resume coming to Twins Territory, there's plenty of success in your past. What are you looking forward to bringing to the diamond with you?
     
    AM: The two things I try to bring to everything I do is my passion and my personality. You can teach anyone about the game, but you can’t teach passion or personality. The number one, most important part of this job is delivering insight to the fans- sharing the stories and giving them the information they may not know otherwise. If I can do that, while also allowing fans to get a sense of who I am and how much I love the game, then I’m happy. Interacting with fans is my favorite part of working in sports. The fans are what it’s all about, so being the “middle man” between the fans and the team is awesome.
     
    OTB: Finally, as 2015 ushered out a brief stint of failures for the Twins, 2016 looks to continue upon the growth and have the Twins take the next step. Give me your playoff prediction and a way too early short at the final record.
     
    AM: Oh man! You’re going to put me on the spot already?? I just got here!
     
    Alright if you insist. If the Royals weren’t a factor in all of this it would be much easier...but unfortunately they are so I will say the Twins clinch the first Wild Card with an 87-75 record. How’s that for a positive attitude to start the season!
     
    It's clear that Audra is already well involved in the excitement that is Twins Territory, and with the impressive background behind her, there's little doubt what's to come won't also be great. Hopefully she's ready to duck plenty of Gatorade showers, because 2016 should produce a lot of them.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. Despite the front office's cry for calm prior to the season, the inevitable reality that the talent just wasn't there came to fruition. Once Glen Perkins broke down in the second half, the lone bright spot was now gone. In 2016, the goal will be to change the course, and it's possible two of the best additions may currently be pitching in Arizona.
     
    For what the Twins have in pitching depth throughout their organization, there's also some key contributors who should be very close to their big league debut. Both drafted early in the 2014 draft, Jake Reed and Nicky Burdi are taking the Arizona Fall League by storm.
     
    A month or so ago, I wrote a primer on what the focus needed to be for each of the Twins inclusions in the Fall League. For Burdi, the focus was no doubt going to be on his command, in that piece I said, "Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League." Often connected due to their path and pedigree, I touched on Reed as well. In talking about the former Duck I said, "Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up." We now find ourselves at a point of evaluation.
     
    With just four games left in Arizona Fall League action, both Burdi and Reed have the bulk of their action behind them. To show for it, each pitcher has been nothing short of spectacular. For Burdi, he's pitched 7.0 innings allowing just two hits and zero runs while striking out nine and walking none. Reed has followed suit going 8.1 IP surrendering just four hits, no earned runs, and owning an 8/3 K/BB rate. In the ERA column, both pitchers have a flawless mark.
     
    It's probably a certainty that the Twins will look through the free agency market and trade offerings for options to improve upon the pen. For both Burdi and Reed however, it looks as though they once again should have a very strong possibility of surfacing, and contributing, for the Twins this upcoming season.
     
    During the fall, Burdi has regularly pushed the radar gun into the triple digits. He's notched 1-2-3 innings, and he's struck out sides. Reed has picked up saves, he's been used in high leverage situations, and he's gotten some very strong hitters out. Against competition that would rank among the best either player has seen on a consistent basis, both Twins prospects have excelled considerably.
     
    With turnover needing to happen for Paul Molitor's relief help, a decision to go younger may not be a bad idea at all. Although both Reed and Burdi will need to continue the success out of the gate in the upcoming season, they should (and likely will) be given some time during big league spring training. If both players can show that the Fall League is what should be expected, and the hiccups of 2015 were just that, Molitor may have two really good arms ready to make a splash.
     
    Affiliated during the Fall League with the Twins, Scottsdale owns a league best record and is in position to take the title. Helping them to get there no doubt has been both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The next contribution they make could come at a much higher level.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Heading into the offseason, there has been talk about the Minnesota Twins trading Trevor Plouffe more than any other player. To be fair, there's plenty of reasons that a trade would make sense. For everything surrounding Plouffe though, there's another guy that the Twins could look to deal, and the trades wouldn't necessarily need to be an either or. His name, Eddie Rosario.
     
    Last season, Eddie Rosario made his big league debut for the Twins at the age of 23. he was the first big time prospect to make it to the big leagues (as I suggested), and he had himself in contention for Rookie of the Year honors by the time things were all said and done. The former fourth round pick, and once 60th rated prospect (in 2014 by Baseball Prospectus) enjoyed a season worthy of celebrating.
     
    On the offensive side of things, Rosario led the big leagues with 15 triples, he cranked out 18 more doubles, and launched 13 homers. His .459 slugging percentage was impressive, and he provided an end of the order jolt to the Twins lineup. In the field, Rosario's presence may have been felt to an even greater extent. Starting 116 games in the outfield, the rookie contributed 16 outfield assists while accounting for 11 DRS (defensive runs saved). His 7.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating) was truly indicative of the ground he covered behind Twins pitchers. In short, Rosario did it all for the Twins in 2015.
     
    With any situation however, there's detractors, and for Rosario they come in the form of future regression. Although his .459 slugging percentage was impressive, he hit just .267, and worse, owned just a .289 on base percentage. Rosario fanned 118 times in 122 games and walked just 15 times last season. The problem stems from the fact that Rosario swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 46% of the time a season ago. He also swung and missed at 14.5% of pitches he saw. Knowing he produced a .332 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), the swing and miss tendencies could produce even worse results.
     
    Going forward, it's probably fair to assume that Rosario refines his approach. Across six minor league seasons, Rosario hit .291/.340/.480. In the minors, he never struck out more than 96 times in a season, and he routinely walked somewhere around 25 times a year. The hope would be that with a big league tour under his belt, this winter would be one of advancement for the young Twins prospect.
     
    Trading Rosario may have less to do with his future performance than it does with what he has currently done, and the landscape of the Twins. Regardless of whether the Twins put Miguel Sano in the outfield or not, the club still has Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Oswaldo Arcia looking for playing time. There's little doubt defensively that Rosario helps to make up the best three, but his greatest level of return may be in advancing the Twins as a whole.
     
    It's far from a forgone conclusion that Buxton starts the year with the Twins, and Hicks still has plenty to improve upon in his own right. Kepler is almost certain to start 2016 at Triple-A, and Arcia remains an absolute wild card. What the grouping does give the Twins is a very real opportunity at a strong outfield each and every night. Operating under the belief that Kepler and Buxton are untouchable, it's Rosario that no doubt provides the biggest return.
     
    Looking to raise the ceiling of the club as a whole, Rosario could be dealt straight up, or packaged with other assets, for another impact position of need. Moving Arcia now would be a definite sell low opportunity (and being out of options makes him even less valuable). There would likely be a market for Hicks, but in looking like a late-bloomer, the Twins would run the risk of someone else experiencing his success.
     
    At the end of the day, Trevor Plouffe being dealt frees up space for Sano without moving to the outfield. It helps to alleviate the problem, but doesn't remove the fact that Minnesota has more capable options in the outfield than positions to play them. If an asset needs to be moved, looking at Rosario and understanding the return expected, the 24 year-old would make a lot of sense.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    You play to win the game, a phrase many a coach has muttered. While it's not the feelings of some, you can count me among the group that thinks participation medals and pats on the back have no place in competitive sports. You win or you lose, there is no gray area. When you lose, you've come short of the ultimate goal. In professional sports though, where there is a clear cut number of teams, and only one ultimate winner, what defines success? Looking at the Twins and Royals, this has become an interesting topic.
     
    Just a few days ago, the Kansas City Royals capped off their 2015 Major League Baseball season as World Series champions. The title was the first for the franchise since 1985, and separated 20 losing seasons between the two championships. Between being the best in the big leagues, the Royals lost over 100 games four times, and 90 or more another nine times. Having both good and bad put into context, local radio personality Phil Mackey posed a question:
     
    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For Twins fans discrediting Royals franchise, which 15-yr run would you rather have: Twins '01-15? Or KC '01-15? (TEN 90-L seasons + WS)?</p>— Phil Mackey (@PhilMackey) <a href="https://twitter.com/PhilMackey/status/661586177770786816">November 3, 2015</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
    So what's the answer then?
     
    For me, the answer seemed pretty simple. Give me a franchise with the performance of the Twins every single day. While the World Series hasn't been won in the Twin Cities since 1991, victories in baseball are measured by much different standards.
     
    The sport deems the best hitters in the world fail seven out of ten times. Some of the best pitchers give up around three runs per game. Over the course of 162 games, the winners are losers are often decided by less than three victories, and even the best teams lose well over one-third of the games they play. Watching, following, and being a fan of a franchise for that one trophy endeavor is a long and lonely road.
     
    Since 2001 (not 1985), the Twins have lost 90 games just four times. Minnesota has won six AL Central Division titles, while producing nine winning seasons. They've had batting champions as well as two league MVP's. Since 2001, the Twins have enjoyed baseball being relevant, and one of the most important sports in the upper midwest.
     
    Now, while the answer is simple for some, it's more than fair to consider why it isn't for others. There's no doubt winning a World Series (and all that comes with it), is the ultimate prize. The celebration parade, bringing the Commissioner's Trophy home, the champagne, it's all represents the highest goal. For Royals fans, or really any franchise, it's also fair to wonder if a recency effect comes into play.
     
    Outside of San Francisco Giants fans, you'd be hard pressed to find many that care who won the 2014 World Series. Baseball fans as a whole can marvel at the performance that Madison Bumgarner turned in over a seven game series, but the eventual result is a thing of the past. So to will that become for the Royals. As the calendar quickly turns to the offseason, only in Kansas City will the Crown be celebrated.
     
    Of course there's no wrong answer here, it's a matter of opinion. When looking at a sport where failure is more prevalent than success though, I see no reason to not revel in the production a team does achieve. Greatness is earned by only one a year, but franchises that have sustainability on their side are generally the ones most often celebrated. Give me meaningful outcomes over years of despair for the tradeoff that one game erases it all.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    After 19 seasons, and a final farewell, Torii Hunter has decided to hang up his cleats. There was no tour as he completed his final 139 games, there was no final moment, and there wasn't even an at bat in the Twins final game. For Torii, things ended the same way they started, on his terms.
     
    After being the 20th overall selection by the Minnesota Twins in the 1993 Major League Baseball draft, Hunter debuted in 1997 at the age of 21. Becoming a regular two years later, the 23 year-old would go on (unbeknownst to him) to be one of the most celebrated Twins in history. Thinking about the 408ft marker out in centerfield at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome was not possible without Torii's image emblazoned in front of it.
     
    For his career, Torii was a man of moments. Despite being celebrated as a defensive superstar, it was the awe inspiring and jaw dropping catches that truly defined his prowess. While not the fastest in center, and without the strongest arm, Hunter relied on instinct and feel. Robbing home runs became his calling card, both at the Metrodome and on the road. While sabermetrics suggest that Hunter was average at best defensively for much of his career, moments such as his robbing Barry Bonds during the 2002 All Star game only took his defensive lore to new heights.
     
    In fact, it was actually the bat that paced Hunter for many of his 19 seasons. Owning a career .277/.331/.461 slash line, Hunter compiled 2,452 hits, 353 homers, and 1,391 runs batted in. He produced his two highest averages of his career at the ages of 36 and 37, and eight times he batted .280 or higher.
     
    Then, there was his durability. Over the course of his 19 seasons, Hunter showed up each and every day. He competed in at least 135 games in 14 of those seasons, and played in over 150 on four different occasions. In his final tour with the Twins in 2015, it was that ability to show up that drew Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor to bring the veteran back one last time.
     
    With young talent such as Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario needing mentorship, it was Hunter who was there to provide it. Throughout spring training and into the season, it was Hunter who dictated clubhouse life, and led the outfielders down the path of success. With his track record behind him, the young prospects on board were able to emulate what they one day would hope to become.
     
    Now with the certainty that Torii Hunter's career has come to an end, the Twins can move on and move forward into a new era. Having bridged the gap between what was and what is to come, centerfield is now being turned over to a new crop of talent. For everything Torii was to Twins Territory, the likes of Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton will never be able to replace him. What they can do however, is hope to follow his example and light their own path.
     
    For everything, the good the bad, ups and downs, excitement and failures, thank you Torii Hunter.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    The Major League Baseball Arizona Fall League kicks off and with it, a handful of Twins prospects continue their development. Now playing in games against some of the most talented prospects in minor league baseball, they will be given another measuring stick opportunity. Competition regarded as higher than most of what is faced in a typical minor league game, the "All Star" rosters of sorts go at it.
     
    For the Twins this season, seven players have been asked to compete for the Scottsdale Scorpions. After being affiliated with the Salt River Rafters a season ago, the Twins filled Scorpions will face off against Salt River in game one. The seven players on the squad include: Adam Brett Walker, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver, Nick Burdi, Taylor Rogers, Jake Reed, and Trevor Hildenberger.
     
    As much about competing and continued development, the Arizona Fall League is about working through some of the issues that may have plagued a player during the season. Each of those seven guys has something to work on. Here's what should be the biggest focus.
     
    Adam Brett Walker
     
    Brett Walker pulverizes baseballs, there's no two ways about it. His 31 homers at Double-A Chattanooga in 2015 were a career high, and he doesn't seem to be losing the power stroke any time soon. The biggest issue however, is that he swings and misses far too often. With 195 strikeouts in just 133 games, Brett Walker had a 238 strikeout pace per 162 games at the Double-A level. that's only going to get worse against better talent. He needs to show more discipline in Arizona, and hopefully carry that approach over into his 2016 season.
     
    Stuart Turner
     
    Turner was drafted to help refuel the Twins catching depth. As a defense first prospect, the hope was that the former Mississippi catcher would eventually hit. With a career worst .223/.322/.306 line for Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, that notion took a significant hit. He picked things up towards the end of the season, but seeing Turner bring the lumber in Arizona would be a very welcomed development by the Twins.
     
    Mitch Garver
     
    Another catcher, Garver was a 9th round pick in 2013 by the Twins. Having played at one level per year, Garver spent 127 games in the Fort Myers lineup this past season. After breaking out to a .298/.399/.481 line with Cedar Rapids in 2014, he slashed just .245/.356/.333 at High-A this season. He followed up his 16 HR performance with just four, and he struck out a career high 82 times (which still isn't a bad number). Like Turner, Garver needs to hit to move up the ranks. The Twins have catching deficiencies and it isn't going to be filled with a Drew Butera type.
     
    Nick Burdi
     
    Burdi was a reliever that looked the part of a fast mover, and was someone I expected to be with the Twins in 2015. He stumbled out of the gate, and a few times throughout the year. He was demoted back to Fort Myers at one point, and his final ERA for Double-A Chattanooga was 4.53. Looking at his WHIP (1.649), the biggest problem is more than apparent. Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League.
     
    Taylor Rogers
     
    Continuing the Twins Kentucky pipeline is their 11th round pick in 2012. Rogers had a relatively strong 2015 season. He finished with a 3.98 ERA that was inflated with a few poor starts to end the year, but his peripherals were generally strong. Not a big strikeout guy (6.5 K/9), he also doesn't walk many (2.3 BB/9). Rogers is repeating the Fall League after making two starts a year ago. He's a good bet to push for time on the Twins roster in 2016, and I think his eventual resting place will be as a long man out of the pen.
     
    Jake Reed
     
    It's hard to mention Burdi without having reed to far behind. Taken in the same draft (Reed in the 5th round), the former Oregon Duck is very similar to the Louisville standout. While he doesn't throw as often in the triple digits, Reed has a power arm of his own. Another guy that was expected to surface for the Twins in 2015, Reed had a very up and down season. He too was demoted to Fort Myers, and after dominating the level again, finished with a 6.32 ERA at Chattanooga. Reed saw his strikeout rate drop (7.0 K/9 in 2015 as opposed to 11.3 in 2014), and his walk rate balloon (3.3 BB/9 in 2015, 0.9 in 2014). Like Rogers, Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up.
     
    Trevor Hildenberger
     
    Unlike some of his teammates, Hildenberger enters the Arizona Fall League for some different reasons. He was actually promoted in 2015 (from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers), and compiled a 1.55 ERA, 11.2 K/9, and a 1.0 BB/9. At Fort Myers, his ERA rose to 3.32 but he still struck out batters at a 9.9 K/9 clip while walking less than 1.0 per nine. The Fall League is an opportunity for Hildenberger to launch himself on a quicker path to the big leagues. He's 24, and will need to show he can compete against better talent. If he proves himself, a shortened stop at Double-A Chattanooga may be in the cards.
     
    Make sure to tune into the Major League Baseball Arizona Fall League over the course of the next month. For these seven Twins prospects, the action could position them nicely for a different 2016 season.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2015 Minnesota Twins were an exceptional story and breathed life back into baseball fans throughout Twins Territory. From veteran contributions, to rookie additions, Paul Molitor's club had it all. In the year of the rookie, the Twins did their part promoting a handful of youngsters. It's going to be that core, that carries the Twins will into the future.
     
    While Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario were the young names that highlighted the Twins 25 man roster, it's been noted for a while that the farm system has plenty of top tier talent. Excluding those two as well as the Byron Buxton, Trevor May, and Tyler Duffey types, taking a closer look at what's coming for the Twins is a fun exercise. It wasn't all pretty this season however.
     
    For every Sano-type story, there's a Joe Benson type flop. Now, with all the games in the rear view mirror, it's time to take a look at a handful of risers and fallers among the Twins prospect ranks.
     
    3 Up
     
    Max Kepler (#6 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)
     
    What isn't there to say about the 22 year old German? Kepler slashed .322/.416/.531 in 112 games for Double-A Chattanooga. He added 13 triples and smashed nine home runs with 71 runs batted in. His 32 doubles were a career high, and he actually walked (67) more than he struck out (63). On the prospect radar since being signed as a teenager, it was quite the coming out party.
     
    At this point, it's pretty hard to argue Kepler being any lower in the Twins organization than right behind Buxton and Jose Berrios. He's going to get a shot for an extended stay with Minnesota next season, and if he can use his 2015 as a launching point, he'll be off to a good start.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves (#9 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)
     
    Following the same progression he's enjoyed each year as a professional, Gonsalves advanced through two levels in 2015. After nine games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he made 15 starts for High-A Fort Myers. On the season, the 20 year-old owned a 2.01 ERA across 24 starts. He struck out batters at an 8.8 K/9 clip and walked 3.6 per nine. Allowing just four homers and 34 runs in 134.1 innings, Gonsalves enjoyed an exceptional campaign.
     
    Adding to the Twins already impressive minor league pitching depth, Gonsalves put together his best season as a pro. Still just 20 at the beginning of next season, his meteoric rise could have him in the big leagues in record time. He needs to work on command issues that showed in Fort Myers, but there's no doubt this kid looks special.
     
    J.T. Chargois (#11 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)
     
    Chargois has been with the Twins organization since 2012, but was pitching in just his second season after suffering injuries. At Double-A Chattanooga, he was generally regarded as behind relievers like Nick Burdi and Jake Reed, but put together an impressive season of his own. Despite a few hiccups along the way, he compiled a 2.62 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 in 48 innings. He gave up only 38 hits, and just one home run all season, and looked the part of the dominating pitcher the Twins drafted out of Rice University.
     
    Regardless of where he starts the season in 2016, Chargois should find himself with a ticket to the big leagues in short order. His stuff will no doubt be an asset for the Twins bullpen, and he's got arguably higher upside than almost anyone at Triple-A Rochester. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chargois is the first pitcher that surfaces with the Twins next season.
     
    3 Down
     
    Jorge Polanco (#4 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)
     
    Polanco was sent up and down and all around during the 2015 season, and he actually put together a solid year. He moves down though because of what showed up as some concerns. Following his trip back to Double-A Chattanooga after a brief stint with the Twins, Polanco slashed just .261/.344/.357 in his final 28 games. He had just six extra base hits in that time period, and struck out nearly once a game (26). For a guy known for his bat, that's not ideal. Then there's his glove. Polanco made 28 errors in 2015, and eight of them came in just 19 games a Triple-A Rochester.
     
    The reality is that Polanco isn't a shortstop. His arm is questionable there, and he's a second basemen without a doubt. The Twins already have one of those, and that makes him somewhat expendable. If Minnesota is going to look at some bigger trades this offseason, Polanco's name is one I would dangle. He's going to hit for someone, and probably well, but I don't think it will be the Twins.
     
    Kohl Stewart (#7 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)
     
    After the way his 2014 ended (with an injury), Stewart no doubt wanted to take a big step forward in 2015. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. The 2013 first round draft pick compiled a 3.20 ERA across 22 starts. He owned a 1.384 WHIP and a 3.1 BB/9 rate, while his strikeouts plummeted to a paltry 4.9 K/9 mark with High-A Fort Myers. To say the 20 year old took a step backwards would probably be an understatement.
     
    Right now, Stewart is still young, and has that on his side. The issue though, is that regression has set in significantly already, and he has yet to hit Double-A. For Stewart to get back to the top of the rotation starter projection he was once billed as, an immense turnaround is going to need to be coming. He's another name prospect the Twins could use as a trade chip, but there's probably no time his value will be less. The Twins have to want more from Kohl, as no doubt he does from himself as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall off top 100 lists, but hopefully that is motivation for the year ahead.
     
    Travis Harrison (#19 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)
     
    Back in 2011, the Twins made Harrison the 50th overall selection in the draft. Out of high school, Harrison was going to have plenty to prove prior to getting to the big leagues. Now 22, Harrison played in 115 games at Double-A Chattanooga this season. He slashed a career worst .240/.363/.356 hitting just 23 doubles, five homers, and driving in 54. It was his fourth year in the organization, and the 4th level he's been at. After a career best season at Fort Myers in 2014, expectations were much higher this time around.
     
    Moved exclusively to the outfield this season (he played one game at first), Harrison needed to continue being the doubles hitter he became a season ago (33). Instead, his average dropped, while the power remained the same. As a first round selection, the growth and development should be ahead of where it is now. Harrison still has some time on his side, but he's on the verge of becoming more depth than anything else.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    2015 was supposed to be and has been the year of the prospect for the Minnesota Twins. Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler have all made their big league debuts. In one of the most impressive farm systems in all of baseball, the Twins had plenty of big names to bring to Target Field. It has been Tyler Duffey however, that has been arguably the most impressive of them all.
     
    With young pitching talents like Trevor May and Alex Meyer being highly touted, and Jose Berrios being highly anticipated, it's been Duffey who has somewhat flown under the radar. The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts opening day starter in 2015 (over Berrios), made quick work of the minor leagues this season. Debuting with the Twins on August 5, his time had quickly come.
     
    After a rocky first outing against baseball's best offense in the Toronto Blue Jays, Duffey has been nothing short of spectacular since. Across his final nine starts, Duffey owned a 5-0 record with the Twins winnings eight of those nine games. Duffey's ERA was a glowing 2.25 and he held opposing hitters to a .244/.304/.349 slash line.
     
    His 8.4 K/9 was best among Twins starters, and he struck out more than seven batters five times in nine outings.
    Pushing his innings further than any other point in his career, Duffey was reliable for Molitor's squad as well. He went more than six innings in all but two of his final nine starts, and he pitched into the seventh twice. The final three trips to the mound saw Duffey throw 101, 112, and 102 pitches respectively.
     
    In his first time at the big league level, it's looked every bit like Duffey can hold his own. His 3.24 FIP suggests his 3.10 ERA is substantiated. He's given up hard hit contact just 24.9% of the time while inducing ground balls 49.7% of the time. Duffey has surrendered line drives just 19.4% of the time, and has given up only four home runs across 59 innings.
     
    Then there's the effectiveness of his curveball. Duffey has twirled his spinner 39.1% of the time this season, and while that number is high, it's because it's been really good. Across all of his pitches, Duffey has induced swings at pitches outside of the strike zone 34.2% of the time, and has benefited from swinging strikes 9.8% of the time.
     
    As a whole, it's pretty hard to quantify Tyler Duffey's 2015 season as anything but a smashing success. While he doesn't get the praise that some other top pitching prospects do, he's earned the recognition all on his own in his first experience at the big league level. I'm not positive Duffey starts in the rotation for the 2016 Twins, but he's made a very compelling argument for himself.
     
    After seeing Duffey's success this season, Jose Berrios has to be salivating at his upcoming opportunity in the year ahead. The Twins pairing the two together in the rotation for years to come would be an ideal scenario, and so far, the plan is being executed flawlessly.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. Ted Schwerzler
    While there's a few games left in the Minnesota Twins 2015 campaign, we are now at a point in which we can look back and dissect how we arrived here. To be clear, here is a point that hasn't been reached in four years. It's 81+ wins, a .500+ record, a winning team, and an expectation of positive seasons ahead. Although Paul Molitor has been at the helm, it's been these players that have paved the way.
     
    To quantify a team MVP for the Twins season is a much more difficult task than would be imagined. Considering there has been two lone winning months, and a handful of first or second half type performers, and players that have step up at the most important times, it is far from cut and dry. In an effort to recognize those deemed worthy, a top five seems the most effective route to take. Don't worry though, number one will get his due.
     
    5. Kevin Jepsen
     
    Somewhat of an interesting inclusion no doubt, but knowing where the Twins are now, they would not be there without the deadline acquisition of the former Rays reliever. Since joining the Twins, Jepsen has pitched in 27 games, owns a 1.73 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He's struck out 8.0 batters per nine innings, and he's saved nine games for the Twins.
     
    Glen Perkins had an amazing first half for the Twins, but he's been non-existent down the stretch. Jepsen came over in hopes of bridging to Perkins, but has instead shouldered the entire load on his own. Taking on the closer role, it has been Jepsen that has helped to save the bullpen from the train wreck it had become.
     
    4. Eduardo Escobar
     
    Before the season began, it looked as though Danny Santana was the deserving recipient of the starting shortstop gig. Forget the fact that regression was going to set in, Escobar seemed best suited to a utility role. 122 games of production later, Escobar owns a .759 OPS, has launched a career high 12 home runs, and has compiled a 1.3 fWAR making any notions of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly.
     
    With the Twins having more questions than answers at shortstop during points throughout 2015, Escobar has inserted himself into the heart of the discussion. He looks capable of holding down the gig going forward, and his late season surge has helped to keep the Twins on track in the midst of a Wild Card chase.
     
    3. Miguel Sano
     
    Given just under half a season to make a big league impact, Sano has done just that. In his time with the Twins, he has hit 17 home runs, the same amount of doubles, 51 runs batted in, batted .275, and compiled a .935 OPS. Forget the fact that he strikes out at an astronomical rate, his 45.6 hard hit rate is among the best in baseball, and he has tormented big league pitchers to the tune of a 2.1 fWAR earned solely at the plate.
     
    Sano's full season numbers would likely have him in the league MVP discussion as much as they would have him running away with it for the Twins. Just 22 years old, he has entrenched himself as a cornerstone of the future, and 2015 was able to provide just a small glimpse of what is to come.
     
    2. Trevor Plouffe
     
    The Twins third basemen has followed up a breakout 2014 campaign with more of the same. After looking like a solid third base option a year ago, Plouffe has continued to do it on both sides of the game once again. His 22 homers are just two away from a career best, and his 84 runs batted in are a new career high. He also has set career bests in games played, runs, hits, and triples this season. On the defensive side, he's played as a league average fielder, and remains vastly improved over the shell of a hot corner defender that he was just a few years ago.
     
    As I've continued to suggest all season, Plouffe should (and likely will) remain in the Twins plans going forward. An extension seems better served than a trade, and enjoying his late-blooming prime in a Twins uniform is something Paul Molitor could likely get used to.
     
    1. Brian Dozier
     
    In the first half of 2015, Brian Dozier looked every bit the frontrunner for the American League MVP. After his first All Star Game appearance, that narrative has changed, but his importance to the Twins has not. Pacing the club with a 3.8 fWAR, Dozier has produced across the board. The 28 year-old has set new career highs in hits, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage, and OPS. In year one of the new deal, he's given Minnesota every bit of value out of his 4 year, $20 million extension.
     
    No doubt, Dozier's second half struggles have once again been a disappointment to what otherwise was trending towards a remarkable season. However, in 2015, the power numbers have kept up, and while it's been the strikeouts that have spiked, the greater whole has been something Twins Territory has not seen for far too long. With the addition of youth coming, and Brian Dozier pacing the pack, the Twins are in a good place as they look towards the future.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Thus far, I've been pretty vocal in my belief that it's Miguel Sano who (and not Carlos Correa), that deserves the AL Rookie of the Year award. In a crop of youth that is one of the strongest in recent memory, Sano, Correa, and Francisco Lindor have highlighted the field. The Twins have another rookie though that has been equally as important in 2015, and it isn't Byron Buxton.
     
    Way back in March, I suggested that Eddie Rosario would be the first Twins prospect promoted to the big leagues, and that he would have a Danny Santana-like breakout this season. While he hasn't hit out of his mind like Santana did, he has substantiated his performance significantly more than the converted shortstop, and Rosario has been a catalyst for the Twins winning.
     
    Drafted out of Puerto Rico in the 4th round of the Major League Baseball draft back in 2010, Rosario debuted for the Twins on May 6. His first game saw him go 1-4 with a run in a 13-0 Twins rout of the Athletics. Fast forward just over 100 games, and the numbers Rosario has put up have been nothing short of remarkable.
     
    Handling his own at the big league level, Rosario has slashed .270/.291/.450 for the Twins. A free swinger that strikes out a bit too much while walking a bit too little, the production has showed up in other places. With 17 doubles, 12 triples, ten home runs, and 11 stolen bases, Rosario has been the king of extra bases for the Twins. He's also scored 50 runs and driven in another 42. Offensively, his game will need to evolve towards a better command of the zone, but in his first go round, he's fared extremely well.
     
    Defensively, Rosario has been at the center of an outfield that has improved by leaps and bounds over a season ago. He has 15 outfield assists and has compiled 10 DRS (defensive runs saved). His 5.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating) and 7.2 UZR/150 (15.25 UZR/150 when not playing RF) marks are also plenty impressive. Playing in the grass with the likes of Buxton and Aaron Hicks, Rosario has helped to give the Twins what may be the fastest outfield in the big leagues.
     
    Considering the depth of the Twins farm system, and the talent loaded at the top of it, Rosario has somewhat flown under the radar this season. He's generally thought of third among the likes of Sano and Buxton, and his prospect status never reached higher than being rated 60th overall prior to 2014 by Baseball Prospectus.
     
    For a guy who has been linked to attitude problems, and suffered the setback of a drug suspension, 2015 has been a revelation for Rosario. A successful Arizona Fall League campaign in 2014 (.330/.345/.410 6 XBH 18 RBI in 24 G) seemed to be indicative of what was to come, and that's been exactly the case with how 2015 has played out for Eddie.
     
    Going forward, Rosario will need to perfect his game and continue to work at the plate more significantly than that of more toolsy prospects Sano and Buxton. Rosario doesn't seem to have the proverbial cliff that Santana fell off of coming, but it is going to be on him to cut down on ways opponents can exploit his negative tendencies. This season has been much of what should have been expected from the former 4th rounder, but then there's also been much more than what was expected as well.
     
    Rosario isn't given the due Sano has been, and he probably doesn't have the fanfare that Buxton carries. A lunch pail guy that has just gone to work, Rosario has quietly got it done, and he's been very good.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Let me start this off by saying that I'm incredibly hopefully I'm not putting the cart in front of the horse here. As things stand, Minnesota is on the outside looking in, and trails both the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. With the Los Angeles Angels not far behind, things will get interesting before they get sorted out. For argument's sake though, let's assume that the Twins are your second AL Wild Card team.
     
    Rather than simply breaking down who starts a one game Wild Card contest for the Twins, I want to take things a step further. Should the Twins need a win and in situation (a game 163), or maybe they advance to the ALDS, here's how I would urge manager Paul Molitor to handle things on the bump.
     
    Game 163
     
    If the Twins keep going at the rate they are, separation isn't something that appears to be on the horizon. Minnesota has been jockeying with the AL West for most of the second half, and that's where they'd find a game 163 opponent. Minnesota owns a 1-2 record against the Angels, 3-3 versus the Astros, and 3-3 against the Rangers. Whoever the competitor is, there's only one man for the mound.
     
    With a game 163 falling into the regular season category, PED-user Ervin Santana would be eligible to pitch in the game. The argument for who gets the ball should begin and end with Santana. Not eligible for the postseason, Minnesota utilizing their 2015 free agent signee in his final capacity is a must. There have been some rocky outings, but in his last 3 starts, Santana has been lights out. His 1.23 ERA and 27/4 K/BB ratio should play healthily towards helping the Twins advance. Allowing just a .228/.282/.304 slash line, Santana has continued to have the upper hand on opposing batters.
     
    If Minnesota needs to get just one more win, the $55 million man in Santana is my choice.
     
    AL Wild Card
     
    Major League Baseball introduced the second wild card team recently, and in doing so have created a one game first round. With a full rotation not yet needed to be considered, the wild card game is another must win situation. The Yankees seem to be the likely team awaiting its opposition, but the Blue Jays could find themselves in the contest as well.
     
    Despite ugly starts for Kyle Gibson against the Yankees (10.72 ERA across 5 starts), he's absolutely who I go with either way. Gibson has been one of Minnesota's best starters (if not the best) this season, and he's rolling off late (2.45 ERA since Aug 22). On the year, Gibson has added nearly a full strikeout to his career best 6.3 K/9, and he's walking batters at a career low 2.9 BB/9. On pace to push towards 200 innings, Gibson has been a horse for the Twins.
     
    Not just a by-product of Santana's ineligibility and rotation uncertainty, Gibson is who I trust to start the playoffs.
     
    Playoff Rotation
     
    Under the assumption that the Twins and Molitor would look to utilize a traditional three-man rotation, we have two spots yet to decide. Gibson getting the ball for game one, the discussion would be between Mike Pelfrey, Tyler Duffey, Phil Hughes and Tommy Milone.
     
    Of the three candidates, Milone is a lock for me. He's had a strong year pitching to the tune of a respectable 3.73 ERA. Owning a 3.67 ERA since his recall (Aug 16), and owning a 3.06 ERA in September, Milone is peaking at the right time. His low walk rate should spare him trouble, and giving the Twins a chance to win remains the ultimate goal.
     
    Selecting a third starter, and a guy that I might start in front of Milone, would be Phil Hughes. Last season's ace, Hughes has been a different animal this time around. The home run problem has plagued him in 2015, and September is the only month in which he's yet to surrender a long ball (having made just one start). Hughes is still settling back in after a DL stint, and while he's capable of being a go to, the big run innings provide a level of uncertainty in the playoffs. Under different circumstances, I'd feel more confident about Hughes. Nonetheless, he's another lock for inclusion in the rotation.
     
    Going with Gibson, Milone, and Hughes leaves both Pelfrey on the outside looking in. I think both pitchers can be very effective out of the bullpen (a role I think Duffey finds himself in during 2016). Pelfrey is going to pitch in long relief in the playoffs almost assuredly, but Duffey may not find himself on the 25. I'd keep Duffey over a bench bat, but that's another discussion.
     
    At the end of the day (er September), we'll have a better idea if this discussion even matters. Should the Twins find themselves in one of these three positions though, these are the pitching situations I think the best playoff opportunity evolves from.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    It was inevitable right? I mean after all, how long could the 57 year-old Gardenhire sit down in Florida puffing on stogies? Eventually, the former Minnesota Twins manager was going to find a new job, and it would be much to the chagrin of Twins Territory. What might have been unexpected is that said new job would come within the AL Central and have Gardy staring into the Twins dugout from the other side.
     
    That scenario looks very much like it will come to fruition at this point.
     
    It was reported by the Detroit Free Press this morning that Detroit Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus was managing his final few games. Compiling a 143-127 record across just under two seasons, Ausmus has drawn the ire of Tigers owner Mike Illitch. The Little Caesar's entrepreneurial mogul has decided that former team President Dave Dombrowski isn't the only one needing to go in 2015. Ausmus is set to be relieved of his duties following the season.
     
    With the managerial opening for the Tigers being announced this morning, information has been relatively fluid. One of the first names brought up as a potential successor was Gardenhire's. Then reports began to surface that the former Twins skipper was not only the front-runner, but likely the already decided upon choice.
     
    Gardenhire took the 2015 season off after being replaced by Paul Molitor following the end of a fourth straight 90 loss season in 2014. Despite showing up at Twins spring training this season, Gardenhire has laid low and flown under the radar. Linked to the Miami Marlins job following the firing of Mike Redmond, Gardenhire stayed put. Now with the American League opening presented to him, and in the Central division nonetheless, it may be time to return to the dugout.
     
    There was never any doubt that Gardenhire would once again manage, but a National League team always seemed to be an odd connection. The Marlins job was never one coveted by many (the franchise is notably poorly run), and Gardenhire may be in over his head. Managing for 13 years in the American League, a guy not known as an innovator would have to adjust to a completely different game in the NL.
     
    Should he become the Tigers eventual choice, the fit would seem to make a lot of sense. Gardenhire has compiled a 1068-1039 record across 13 years in the AL Central. Of the major league franchises, the Tigers would be one of the few Gardenhire would find himself relatively familiar with. Detroit also is not far from his roots established in Minnesota and would provide another layer of comfort when getting back into the business.
     
    The biggest question may be in regards to what Illitch and the Tigers believe they are getting in the longtime Twins manager. Ausmus is no doubt being fired for failed expectations. Given premium pieces to make World Series runs, he is 0-3 in his lone postseason appearance, and will miss them in 2015. While given a less than impressive bullpen a season ago, Ausmus no doubt did less with more. What's curious, is that the same could be said about Ron Gardenhire.
     
    Despite a 2010 Manager of the Year award, and six AL Central Division titles (compared to just four for the Tigers in his tenure), Gardenhire's playoff ability has plenty of unanswered questions. The Twins advanced to the ALCS just once under Gardenhire (losing 4-1 to the Angels), and were swept three times in the ALDS (twice by the Yankees, and once by the Athletics). As a whole, Gardenhire's playoff record stands at just 6-21 (good enough for a .222 win percentage). Added up, it would appear the Tigers may be fixing a question with somewhat of another one.
     
    Manager's are somewhat of a fickle beast, and we've seen that this season more than ever. Matt Williams, the Washington Nationals manager with just 2014 as his previous experience, has fallen flat on his face. Williams took a star-studded team and effectively ended their playoff hopes with his own inability. Then there's Dan Jennings (who took over in Miami for Redmond), coming in having never managed or played at any level, who's compiled a 39-57 record (or virtually the same as his predecessor in Redmond). What we have learned over the course of 2015 is that often, major league franchises perception of managers becomes reality.
     
    If Illitch and the Tigers do intend on hiring Ron Gardenhire to take over in 2016, it will be because their perception trumps documented reality. Gardenhire is a very good manager, but he's had many of the same shortcomings (albeit in a larger dose) than Ausmus. Detroit has changed their culture to be deep playoff runs or bust, and Gardenhire could get them there, but he also couldn't. If the Tigers don't address their lackluster farm, poor relief help, and spending habits, it won't matter who's in the dugout.
     
    Ron Gardenhire deserves another chance at managing. It's going to be odd for Twins fans to see it come in Detroit. He could succeed there, but it may not have much to do with his own accord.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    It's September, the Twins are above .500, and more importantly, in the midst of a playoff race. Outside of the calendar inevitably turning to September, none of those facts seemed guaranteed at the beginning of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. Regardless, here we are, and not it's time for the Twins to address the latter two.
     
    Minnesota has made their first wave of minor league call ups, looking to players like Kennys Vargas, A.J. Achter, Eric Fryer, and others. While many profile as little more than roster depth, there's some significant room for the Twins to bolster their playoff potential.
     
    Speaking of the playoffs, Minnesota currently trails the Texas Rangers in the AL Wild Card (as of this writing, by 1.5 games). Failing to make up ground, winning and losing on the same days, the Twins have been treading water for much of the past couple of weeks. As things stand currently, Fangraphs slots the Twins chances of making the playoffs at 17.6%. That mark trails both the Rangers (24.6%) and the Angels (28.4%). For the Twins to catch Texas and stay ahead of Los Angeles, they could do themselves favors by looking at some roster options.
     
    At this point, we are past the discussion as to whether or not Minnesota should be calling up Jose Berrios (to clear that up, they should have). What we do have in front of us though, is a 40 man roster that is not currently being utilized by Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. With roster expansion taking place in September, the active roster grows from 25 to 40, a mark the Twins remain far off from. Still needing to have players on the 40 man roster in order to be added to the active roster in September, the Twins aren't in a position to go prospect crazy. What they can do however, is add two key cogs that could be the difference.
     
    Right now, Minnesota has six players on the 40 man roster that are not yet in the big leagues. Those six players are Alex Meyer, Aaron Thompson, Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler. The last two players are the only currently slated for playoff baseball, thanks to Chattanooga's solid season at the Double-A level. That leaves Meyer, Thompson, Pinto, and Arcia as the odd ducks on the 40 man.
     
    Thompson was up for the Twins earlier in the year. The former top draft pick worked out well, until he was over-used and exposed. His major league ability may have topped out, and the Twins shouldn't rely on him any time soon. Pinto is still looking to get back to his former self at the plate following a lost season due to concussions. He can't catch right now, and the Twins don't necessarily need another bench bat. Finally, Arcia finished horribly for Rochester, and despite the fact that he's out of options in 2016, he doesn't give the Twins much benefit at the current time.
     
    Of the list, that leaves one. Alex Meyer.
     
    Minnesota promoted Meyer in June and allowed him to make his MLB debut on the 26th against the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed four earned runs in just 1.2 innings. After another earned run in one inning against the Reds, Meyer was sent back down to the farm. The former top prospect scuffled for the next month or so, but then something changed.
     
    From August 9th, through the end of the season, Alex Meyer went on to pitch 19.2 innings. He gave up just 12 hits, and while he walked eight, he struck out 21. His 0.46 ERA sparkled, and his .174/.275/.188 slash line against was impressive. To say the Twins return for Denard Span ended 2015 at Triple-A on a good not may be an understatement.
     
    Already of the 40 man, and the owner of a 9.8 K/9 in 2015, Meyer could provide a nice asset to a mediocre Twins pen in the final month. There's no doubt he's going to be given another shot to prove himself in 2016, and allowing that to happen in the midst of a playoff race would be great experience. Meyer doesn't deserve high leverage trust, but noting the Twins starting staff, he could prove plenty useful in the final few weeks.
     
    Then there's the currently exclusion on the active roster of Meyer's teammate, and a guy not on the 40 man roster, Mark Hamburger. Brought in by the Twins and given a chance during spring training, he fared well, but it wasn't enough. Spending the season with Rochester, Hamburger has flown relatively under the radar. With guys like Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin getting the in-season callups, Hamburger continued to bide his time. After a tough start to the season (operating as a starter), and an ugly seven earned run blip during early June, he's been great out of the pen.
     
    Since June 16, Hamburger owned a 0.79 ERA across 34.1 innings while allowing just 24 hits, three earned runs, and 28 strikeouts (walking just three). He was one of the most trusted Red Wings relievers in 2015, and opposing hitters slashed just .195/.213/.268 off of him. Having not been in the big leagues since 2011 with the Texas Rangers, it looks like his time may once again be here.
     
    Having traveled a long road back to where he is now, Hamburger could take over a 40 man spot for Thompson. Knowing what the lefty (Thompson) can provide the Twins, Molitor and his staff may be best served to utilize Hamburger's abilities on the 40 man instead.
     
    It's going to take an incredibly strong finish during the final month for the Twins to make the playoffs. With deadline acquired Kevin Jepsen already filling in for injured closer Glen Perkins, and a mediocre bullpen to start, it's there that the Twins need to focus. Hanging on to games late is a must for Molitor's club, and allowing another September 6 Houston Astros-like comeback can't happen again.
     
    Minnesota should have both Alex Meyer and Mark Hamburger in their bullpen sooner rather than later.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    By now, you know the story of the 2015 Minnesota Twins. Minnesota got off to an abysmal start, then something clicked, and a team burst onto the scene a year early. Holding down a commanding lead of a Wild Card spot, the Twins looked to be in good position. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out, and Paul Molitor's squad now finds themselves on the outside looking in. With a few weeks left in August, and the active roster expanding in September, things are about to get interesting.
     
    Right now, Minnesota is still in the hunt, but it's the next few series that will determine their 2015 fate. The current major league roster is far from optimal, but it also appears capable of pulling out some victories. With the AL East as their upcoming competition, the Twins need to stay focused throughout the end of August.
     
    Ideally, roster optimization in August for the Twins would include both Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios in the big leagues. Both are more than capable of providing a boost, and would be a definite asset. Buxton is likely being held back to sometime around the end of the month due to service time, and Berrios has a ticking innings clock. Arguments for both sides are compelling, but operating under the belief that the Twins aren't a playoff team, I'd wait until September 1st on both.
     
    The bullpen is really the only other place the Twins could be looking for a boost in the current month. Things have been in flux of late, and changes have been made. There's a few places that could be considered weak spots, but it's also hard to suggest the replacement arms would be a guaranteed upgrade. Ryan O'Rourke and A.J. Achter have both proven capable at times, while Brian Duensing and Kevin Jepsen have been better of late. Much like the offense, there's little to nothing I'd change here at the moment.
     
    As rosters expand in September, this is where the Twins have the most room to operate through some exciting decisions. First and foremost, Buxton and Berrios need to be with the big league club. Buxton is slashing .404/.440/.532 in his first 11 Triple-A games, while Berrios owns a 2.25 ERA in his last 40.0 IP. Buxton should push Aaron Hicks to right field, rendering Torii Hunter a rotational bat and replacement fielder (his likely 2016 role). Berrios deserves a crack at the rotation, and giving him three starts to end 2015 would be extremely valuable going into spring training 2016.
     
    Outside of the top two, Minnesota has some other must accommodate types. First and foremost, Max Kepler. The German prospect is batting over .330 at Double-A and has been arguably the best hitter in the system this season. Getting him reps at the MLB level prior to 2016 is an absolute must.
     
    Teammate Nick Burdi could also be a consideration from Double-A. The 2014 second round pick has taken his lumps this year, but he owns a 2.05 ERA across his last 22.0 IP. Burdi should be a key part of the 2016 bullpen, and getting his feet wet now (as well as his strikeout punch) is a route the Twins should explore. Jorge Polanco and J.T. Chargois could also be options if the Twins want to open things up a bit further.
     
    Just one level down, Paul Molitor has a few guys at Triple-A that will need a look. James Beresford should be given a tip of the cap type shot for what he has put together this year. The Aussie is slashing .313/.346/.368 and he offers at least a better option than Doug Bernier down the stretch for the big club. Out of the bullpen, Mark Hamburger is an option. The Twins are well acquainted with Hamburger, and his 1.05 ERA since June 16 would seemingly bolster the Twins arms.
     
    For Rochester, Kennys Vargas has pushed himself and worked his way back to the highest level on the farm. He's slashed .316/.519/.421 in seven games since his return to Triple-A, and will be fighting for a 25 man spot to open 2016. On the opposite end of the spectrum, overlooking Oswaldo Arcia might not be a bad idea. He went on a nice home run-filled hot streak, but he's slashed just .100/.200/.157 across his last 21 games. The Twins need to make a decision on Arcia before the upcoming year, but it's gut check time for the powerful Venezuelan.
     
    Looking at what can be done, and how the Twins are positioned, the final few weeks of the season offer plenty of intrigue. At the forefront is a team who is competing for the first time in many years. Secondary though, is a team that has shown up a year early, and offers the organization an opportunity to not rush decisions, but also time to evaluate in meaningful competition.
     
    August shouldn't be a time of much turnover for the Twins, as roster optimization would still more than likely keep them out of the playoffs. September though is a period where the Twins can begin to position for 2016 and beyond, with their being little reason not to get the ball rolling.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Saying that the Twins got off to a slow start post All Star Break would be putting things lightly. It took seven straight series without a series win for the Twins to notch their first in the positive column. Now on the verge of getting things rolling though, what lies ahead for the Twins should dictate the end of their summer.
     
    As things stand, September should be a fun month for Minnesota fans regardless. I wouldn't be surprised to see Max Kepler, a couple of young relievers, Kennys Vargas, and potentially Oswaldo Arcia get looks when the rosters expand. If the Twins want more than just a glimpse at what 2016 will bring, it's the end of August that remains most important.
     
    Having now gotten back over .500, the Twins will head back out on the road following a weekend series with the Indians. Minnesota has an impressive 36-22 tally at Target Field, but is a putrid 21-34 on the road. They probably aren't going to catch the Blue Jays, but if they want to draw close on the Yankees or Angels, their hot streak is going to need to come now.
     
    To close out the month of August, Minnesota has a three game set with the Yankees, a four-gamer with the Orioles, and a three-gamer with the Rays all on the road. Ending the month is a three game home tilt with the Astros. Those four teams all have equal or better records than the Twins, and taking series from them would ensure Minnesota to climb in the standings.
     
    Heading into this season, a .500 record would have been something to be ecstatic about. Minnesota was still a year away, and putting things together ahead of time would be a great development. To this point, that has happened. The Twins have been in the Wild Card discussion, and while playing over their heads, they have continued to surprise.
     
    Recent weeks have cooled the fire in regards to just how hot the Twins were, but finishing strong should be the goal. The emergence of current rostered players like Miguel Sano (who's batting a team leading .295), and Aaron Hicks (owns a 2.2 fWAR), shows that the youth movement is starting to take effect. Throwing in great seasons by players such as Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe is simply further icing on the cake.
     
    No matter what happened in 2015 for the Twins, September should have been a month to look forward to. With a stacked farm system, the Twins had plenty of intriguing call-ups on the horizon. The fact that competitiveness has been achieved prior to that fun only substantiates what September can bring.
     
    2016 was going to be a good year for Twins fans regardless, and 2015 has already been a success. If the Twins can get hot to close out August though, the narrative could end up taking on a whole different form.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    As baseball evolves in time, one thing will always remain, and that is the fact that the sport is a thinking man's game. Regardless of what is going on in front of you, there's numerous outcomes to consider in any given instance prior to them taking place. A large portion (let's call it 90%) of the game remains simple at its core on the field, but that emerging 10% can often being explained by statistical analysis.
     
    Sabermetrics aren't for everyone, but there's no doubt they are for anyone. In a numbers driven sport, it's probably time for a wider variety of numbers to be given their due.
     
    Full disclosure, I don't consider myself a sabermetrics diehard. I understand their place, value, and use. I include them and credit certain values in my writing, and I believe they help to explain some of what your eye already sees on the field. I don't believe they are a be all, end all. They have a place, and far too often aren't given that.
    Recently, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press caught up with Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki in the name of sabermetrics. Suzuki is the poster child for such a discussion. He's roughly a replacement level catcher, and finding any and every advantage to improve his game and worth should be his constant goal.
     
    In his piece, Berardino asks Suzuki two questions that get somewhat appalling responses. Here is what was said:
     
    On what stats he likes: “Obviously the WHIP for the pitchers. I don’t know what the other stuff is. (Fielding Independent Pitching), I don’t know what that means. For hitters, I like the OPS. I think OPS is better than average. That has a lot to do with it.”
     
    On zero being replacement level: “I find that hard to believe. If you take a big-league guy and then you go get some guy from Double-A, you’re telling me that? Unless it’s a bench player, I don’t see that.”
     
    Addressing question one, Zuk keeps it simple. WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is a valuable takeaway. It's pretty simply logic to understand that putting guys on base (no matter how it happens) isn't beneficial to a pitcher. What WHIP doesn't explain is what Suzuki decides to ignore.
     
    FIP (fielding independent pitching) has become one of the most important pitching numbers over the past couple of seasons. In understanding FIP, a pitcher is able to assess their performance in relation to being a sum of total parts. Knowing there are eight defenders playing into what happens on any given batted ball, a pitcher's effectiveness is quantified in relation to his ERA. FIP helps to tell a deeper story, whether or not hits are warranted, or a by-product of a bigger issue. Once again highlighting that there is no one number that does complete justice.
     
    Again staying in a relative comfort zone, Suzuki looks at OPS (like WHIP, OPS would not be considered a traditional sabermetric stat). OPS (on-base plus slugging) has gained relevance in recent years because of what it says about a batter. As seen in his teammate Brian Dozier, Suzuki understands that average alone is not a good measure of a player's value.
     
    Batting average is the quantifiable sum, but it's on-base percentage and slugging percentage that win games. Dozier for example has a paltry .248 AVG, but his .318 OBP and .495 SLG set him apart. He walks a considerable amount (though less than his career average, which is another issue altogether), and he finds ways to give the Twins runners. When he is hitting the ball, he also finds ways to snag extra bases, which drive his slugging percentage way up. A batter getting on base, and being further on the base paths is no doubt more valuable than a consistent singles hitter.
     
    The second question Suzuki addresses is just somewhat indicative of the problem as a whole. Sabermetrics are definitely not for everyone, but they are very much for anyone. Suzuki has decided to look past a level of understanding because he has chosen to discredit the metrics. Whether that's because they aren't kind to him, or for some other reason, remains unsolved.
     
    Replacement level being zero in and of itself should be a relatively easy numerical,value to grasp. If WAR (wins above replacement) calculates a positive or negative value, then 0 would serve as the statistical baseline. Plus or minus that number would then define a player's ability.
     
    Defining replacement level is somewhat difficult, but FanGraphs states: "One who costs no marginal resources to acquire. This is the type of player who would fill in for the starter in case of injuries, slumps, alien abductions, etc." At it's core, that definition is relatively self-explanatory. Working as an MLB player to increase your value, targeting areas of concern would no doubt be a good place to start. If WAR is a sum of all parts, understanding the underlying sabermetrics that make up the whole would be a good plan of action.
     
    At the end of the day, any amount of numbers can get to a point where the game becomes a chess match inundated by numerical values. At its core though, baseball is a chess match, and knowing how to utilize the numbers in your favor is something that no doubt is the difference in certain key situations.
     
    Sabermetrics aren't for everyone, but they are for anyone and should be comprehended by those looking to utilize their utmost value.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are a sub .500 baseball team for the first time since May. They have gone from Wild Card contender, to post All Star Game flop. In nearly every facet of the game, the Twins have normalized towards their projections, and it's caused an ugly domino effect. Thankfully though, in their most recent transaction, they show they get it.
     
    Today Byron Buxton was activated from the disabled list and them optioned to Triple-A Rochester. In activating Buxton, the Twins could have immediately called him up to Minnesota. They intelligently chose not to, and in doing so did themselves some favors along the way.
     
    There's little room to argue against the fact that the Twins offense has been horrible since the All Star Break. Could Byron Buxton, baseball's best prospect have provided a spark, maybe. He also may not have. Regardless, the Twins absolutely did the right thing today.
     
    Buxton had been on the disabled list for over six weeks (with an initially reported 4-6 week timeframe). He has played in just three rehab games at Triple-A Rochester (his first taste of the level), and he owns a .189/.231/.270 slash line across his first 11 big league games. As a whole, rushing him back immediately when cleared would seem a silly decision.
     
    Looking past the on field ramifications, something more important is at play here. The Twins are understanding of who they are and what they have going forward. In activating and optioning Buxton, they will save 17 days of service time (assuming he's recalled on September 1). In doing so, Minnesota could be better positioned to save millions down the road by gaining more team control, and avoiding Super 2 status for a potential superstar.
     
    Also, with the way transactions are handled, the Twins are offered flexibility. Because they optioned Buxton, the Twins must wait 10 days to recall him. By making the move today, Minnesota has plenty of time to let him play at Triple-A prior to the rosters expanding in September. Also, if the Twins recall Buxton within 20 days, the option will not count.
     
    Most importantly at play here is the saved service time. With the flexibility the move gives the Twins, they can allow Buxton to get ready and not be hurt financially by it. The lost (or potentially not) option is next to irrelevant. Options should be considered for players moving back and forth between the minors. For a guy like Buxton, dubbed the best prospect in baseball, being out of options would signify a greater problem altogether.
     
    Terry Ryan and the Twins are acknowledging their success, and also not negating their window. Competition this season wasn't expected, and even with the strong positioning early on, regression was always looming. In not dealing away assets at the deadline, and making key moves like this one, the Twins are poised to have all their chickens hatched and ready to go starting next season.
     
    Byron Buxton was already going to be the Twins opening day centerfielder in 2016 regardless, a move like this may have guaranteed he's there for a World Series challenging team in the early 2020's.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
×
×
  • Create New...