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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have made it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. While this season doesn't guarantee they play home games at Target Field, this team reversed course on a dismal 103 loss season, to surprise even the most hopeful fans. While they travel to New York to face off against a tough Yankees club, there's more than a handful of good matchups slates for October.
     
    Whether it be in the American or National League, there's no layup among any of the 10 teams involved in postseason baseball this year. The one-game Wild Card is going to eliminate to good teams, and the World Series winner is going to have to navigate quite the gauntlet. Taking a stab at what it all looks like, let's get into it.
     
    American League Wild Card- New York Yankees
     
    There isn't a better situation for Minnesota to be in. Playing with house money, and negating a large weakness in pitching thanks to a one-game scenario, the Yankees should be doing anything but overlooking the AL Central foe. With a 23 year-old Luis Severino on the mound in a big stage game, it'd hardly be surprising if the moment was too large. That being said, I just don't see the Twins doing enough here.
     
    This New York bullpen is very, very good, and unless Minnesota gets to Severino early, Joe Girardi can shorten the game. While the Twins lineup has plenty of run producing capabilities of its own, the Yankees hit the long ball all over the place. Aaron Judge ran away with the 2017 Rookie of the Year, and I'd imagine he'll continue to flash on this stage.
     
    I'd be far from shocked if the Twins win, and feel comfortable enough to bet on them, but think that's a bit more heart than head talking.
     
    National League Wild Card- Colorado Rockies
     
    Going into 2017, I wondered if the Rockies weren't a dark horse team to make a run at the World Series. They have young talent, they have veterans, and for the first time in a while, they have more than just patchwork pitching. It didn't help that the NL West was among the best divisions in baseball this year, but if the Rockies are going to advance, they'll have to earn it.
     
    Zack Greinke is going to take the ball for the Diamondbacks, and while he's definitely one of the game's top pitchers, he's far from a sure thing. I like Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado to get to him early, and that gives Jon Gray an opportunity to settle in. Arizona owns the season series, but the Rockies played just above .500 on the road.
     
    If there's an upset brewing in the Wild Card round, I think it's more likely that the Rockies make it happen.
     
    American League Division Series- Houston Astros & Cleveland Indians
     
    This is where the cream rises to the top. While the two top teams from the AL East are plenty imposing, the best of the American League in 2017 has been the Astros and the Indians. I'm not sure the Red Sox have enough to match up with Houston over the course of a five game series, and the Astros have so many different ways they can beat you. With a powerful lineup, and a one-two punch of Verlander and Kuechel, they should advance here.
     
    For the World Series runner-up from a year ago, Terry Francona's team is simply too battle tested to go out this early. While the Yankees have plenty of young guns at their disposal, it's the Indians that have experience on their side. Jose Ramirez may still be the most underrated player in the game, and that pitching staff is good enough to shut the best lineups in the game down.
     
    With two juggernauts advancing, the ALCS should be a doozy.
     
    National League Division Series- Chicago Cubs & Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    Although the coasted most of the year, there wasn't really ever doubt that it would be the Cubs hoisting the NL Central crown. They had rough patches and went through ups and downs, but Joe Maddon knows how to get the most out of his guys. Coming off a World Series victory, the experience should prove invaluable this season. There's a lot of pressure on the Nationals with the impending free agency of Bryce Harper, and nothing yet to show for Max Scherzer's monster deal. That isn't going to help them stay loose, and a good team can expose that weakness.
     
    Over the full course of the season, there hasn't been a better team in baseball than the Dodgers. They went in a massive funk, and still were able to blindly cruise to both the best record in the game as well as a division title. No matter how good of a story the Rockies may be, expecting them to compete with a rotation that has too many good arms, and a lineup that has zero holes, is just too much to ask.
     
    Like the American League, we'll be treated to one heck of a Championship series in the NL as well.
     
    American League Championship Series- Houston Astros
     
    Right now, there may be no pitcher in baseball going better than Justin Verlander. In a seven game series, he may be capable of getting the Astros three wins on his own. While the Indians have a pitching staff more than capable of going toe-to-toe with Houston, I think it's in the offense that we see separation.
     
    The Astros scored more runs than anybody in baseball, and it wasn't particularly close. They can beat you on the mound or at the plate, and when you have the ability to bat studs like Alex Bregman in the bottom third of the order, it says something about your overall quality. I tend to think this Indians team may be better than the one that went to the World Series a year ago, but their running into a buzzsaw here, and I like Houston to advance.
     
    National League Championship Series- Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    That whole best team in baseball once again rears its head. The Dodgers are just loaded everywhere you look, and while the Cubs put it on cruise control at times this season, they'll need everything to break right for an opening at what's next. Chicago can't match up consistently on the mound and I think that's where the deficiency lies.
     
    Having to face off against Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Alex Wood, and Rich Hill doesn't bode well for any club on a nightly basis. The Cubs put up more runs the LA during the regular season, but that offense should find it tough sledding to push runs across in bunches against this group. While Cody Bellinger has gotten (and deservedly so) all of the accolades this season, I think there's room for rookie Walker Buehler to shine in the postseason.
     
    World Series- Houston Astros
     
    Seven games pitting the Dodgers and Astros against each other for all the marbles sounds like a baseball fan's dream. This is a series that features everything, and there's plenty of young stars on both sides of the diamond. While neither of these teams have glaring flaws, I think it's the Dodgers that have shown a funk can derail them just a bit more.
     
    The narrative of the Astros bringing a World Series home following Hurricane Harvey would be one for the storybooks, and I'm sure that's already being contemplated. Extra motivation or not, I think this group is just too well assembled and too talented to let this opportunity slip through their grasp. Your 2017 World Series champions are the Houston Astros.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    With just a few games left in the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins fate is all but decided. Paul Molitor's group is going to represent the AL Central in the Wild Card game, and it appears they'll take on the Evil Empire of the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Knowing this organization is coming off 103 losses a year ago, it's somewhat astounding to look at how we arrived here.
     
    Not needing too much of a deep dive into the analytical side of things, this Twins club has plenty of eye-popping numbers at its disposal. Whether looking at snapshots of the season that has been, or taking a top down view from the entire 162, it's hard not to be impressed. Here's a handful of numbers that will threaten the safety of your jaw:

    82 wins (and counting)- Coming off 103 losses, the Twins already have a turnaround of 23 games. That's tied for the best turnaround in club history (a 1965 team that lost in the World Series), and is almost certainly a number that will be added to across the final six games of the year. With an over/under set in Vegas at 74.5 prior to the season, Minnesota surpassed that mark with 18 games to spare.
    +96 run differential- Through August and September (up until the 25th), Minnesota has completely flipped the script in the run scoring department. At a -72 run differential on August 1st, the Twins have ripped off two of their best hitting months of the year. Outscoring opponents by nearly 100 runs across their last 53 games, the club now owns a Pythagorean W/L that sits at 80-76 (a mark unfathomable even a few weeks ago).
    92.1%- The total jump in percentage that the Minnesota Twins playoff odds have taken since August 1st. Forced to decide their fate prior to the trade deadline, the Twins had just a 5.6% chance on July 31st. At 50-53, they were 4.5 games back in the AL Wild Card. In needing to make a decision, the club flipped closer Brandon Kintzler and rental starter Jaime Garcia, for some solid future pieces. Today their playoff odds rest at 97.7%.
    199 home runs- With their next longball, the Twins will surpass the 200 HR plateau. Having done so in back-to-back seasons, they'll have accomplished that feat for the first time since the 1963/64 seasons. As of August 29, they were on pace for just 197. Right now, four players have at least 20 homers, which is the first time Minnesota has reached that mark since 2009. If Max Kepler can add one more, the Twins will have five 20 HR players for the first time since 1986.
    96.4% Stolen Base efficiency- Byron Buxton has stolen 27 of the 28 bases he's attempted to swipe this year. The one in which he was thrown out, he overslid the base. At the time of his 24th steal, I checked into his efficiency. Since 1946, 1,483 players had stolen at least 24 bases in a season. Only five had been thrown out just once. Now 27 of 28, that group has gotten even smaller.
    Multi-position Gold Glove Winner- At the conclusion of 2017, Joe Mauer will look to join Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad as the only players to win Gold Glove awards at multiple positions. He'll be the first to do so at catcher and first base. Currently, Mauer ranks 1st among AL first basemen in UZR, UZR/150, and RngR. His 5 DRS checks in third. While teammate Byron Buxton is a guarantee to win the Gold Glove in CF, it would be a major upset if Mauer didn't take the award at 1B.
    24 DRS- In 2017, Buxton's current 24 defensive runs saved are the highest number by any Twins outfielder since tracking began in the early 2000s. Denard Span posted a 19 DRS mark in 2012, and Torii Hunter's high water mark was 18 DRS in 2004. Despite scuffling at the plate, Buxton has been a game changer all season in the Minnesota outfield.
    Five- That's the amount of regular position players that the Twins have in their every day lineup age 25 and younger. Over half of their regular order has yet to reach a level where they would be considered and established big league veteran. Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia fall into this category on the pitching side. With prime's still in the future, there's plenty of reason to believe we've yet to see the best of what's to come.

    No matter how 2017 ends, and how far into October this club gets, looking back on what's been a fun year should provide plenty of excitement for what's ahead. Meaningful baseball was played for virtually the entire 162 game slate, and down the stretch, Minnesota has been appointment viewing. This club is trending in an upward direction, and among a division that has plenty of holes, that should put the rest of the league on notice.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    With just a handful of games left in the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins find themselves with a hold on the 2nd Wild Card spot. As of September 13, they have a 2 game lead over the Los Angeles Angels, and this is their race to lose. That means, in the matter of a few short weeks, they're staring at a matchup with the Bronx Bombers. Really though, is it all that scary?
     
    The way each of their schedules sets up, Minnesota finds themselves in a much more enviable position than the Angels down the stretch. With the assumption that the Wild Card lead only continues to grow, let's allow for the possibility to get ahead of ourselves. To kick off Postseason play, Paul Molitor's squad has a one-game playoff with Joe Girardi's Yankees.
     
    This isn't the Twins of the early 2000's, and many things have changed. Ron Gardenhire isn't in the dugout for Minnesota, and there's plenty of reasons to believe that this club can get the proverbial monkey off of their backs. With one series left against each other this season, the Twins currently hold the advantage over New York by a 2-1 margin with a +4 run differential. Pulling out all of the stops however, there's a few things we can look at. So, how does Minnesota stack up?
     
    On the bump, it's almost assuredly going to be Ervin Santana for the Twins. The Twins ace hasn't faced New York in 2017, with his last tilts against the Yankees coming in back-to-back outings a year ago. Split between home and the road, Santana posted 12.1 IP with a 2.19 ERA and a 6/2 K/BB in starts on June 19 and 25th. Looking at both of those lineups, only half remain in New York. With the emergence of players like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, Santana will have some fresh faces to get used to.
     
    For Minnesota, the opposing pitcher is an interesting one. Girardi could go with the recently acquired Sonny Gray. He was the blockbuster deal this summer, and owns a 2.74 ERA across seven starts since swapping teams. It's 23 year-old Luis Severino that's been the Yankees best pitcher this year however, and his 2.96 ERA along with a 10.8 K/9 could be imposing against Twins hitters. In a one-game scenario, it probably makes sense to have whichever one isn't chosen to start, as an immediate piggy back option.
     
    Offensively, the Yankees have scored more runs than all major league teams not named the Houston Astros. However, the Twins don't find themselves far behind with a 7th best tally of 721 runs. Swatting the fourth most longballs in baseball, the Yankees have benefitted heavily from the big fly. Minnesota should clear the 200 plateau, but they are currently middle of the pack across the sport. New York does tend to strike out at a higher clip than the Twins, and the team .776 OPS is 5th in baseball in comparison to the Twins .770 mark (9th). While the Yankees do lead in virtually every category, the margin is slim, and Molitor's group should be far from out of their element.
     
    There's going to be two separating factors that should be evident in a one game scenario between these two clubs. The Yankees have a much deeper pitching stable, while the Twins have a defensive calling card significantly better than that of their foes. While Santana is capable of drawing the start, Minnesota has little room for error with a bullpen that offers little sure things in a winner take all format. The Twins will need to get up early, and protect their starter in what's generally assumed as a hitter's ballpark. New York can afford to lock down a lead, and even with the struggles of some big names lately, they have hurler after hurler that can jog in from the pen to snag three outs. Miscues will cost the Yankees, and a team with defensive limitations can be exploited by a surging Twins lineup.
     
    Interestingly enough, Minnesota will get a chance to see how things stack up soon before the Wild Card game takes place. With a series in the Bronx on September 18-20, the Twins will step into hostile territory for what amounts to a tune up. A lot in terms of momentum could be up for grabs, and a definitive series win could go a long ways towards a morale boost. Regardless of the venue (and the Twins have played better on the road for most of 2017), these two clubs check in incredibly close to one another. While the Yankees have more firepower over the course of a series scenario, one game leaves all of the theatrics up in the air.
     
    We've now gotten to experience a full season of meaningful baseball, and at least a handful of weeks following a playoff push. If it culminates in a one game playoff with Girardi's 25, the Twins should go in guns blazing. Overmatched in many of the earlier playoff series, the Twins don't find themselves in that scenario this time. Look for Molitor's group to put up a good showing, and the unlikely Twins could be making a push deeper into October.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    As the 2017 Major League Baseball season rushes to a conclusion, ballots have gone out for Postseason awards. As a member of the IBWAA, I have the privilege of casting a vote each season. With the awards being a reflection of a full season of work, my ballot has already been cast and is ready to be unveiled.
     
    Throughout the 2017 season, we've seen a handful of exciting performances from veterans and rookies alike. Both on the mound and at the plate, major leaguers across both the American and National leagues have once again treated us to some spectacular performances. In rewarding their efforts, here's who I am suggesting for each major award.
     
    Let's get into it.
     
    American League MVP- Jose Altuve
    Others receiving votes: Mike Trout, Chris Sale, Jose Ramirez, George Springer, Aaron Judge, Eric Hosmer, Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Schoop, and Francisco Lindor
     
    Not willing to vote a pitcher for the MVP award, this was essentially a two horse race. Altuve's strongest competition was the Angels Mike Trout, and the time he missed due to injury hurt him here. Altuve has been incredible in 2017, and is going to run away with the batting title. He's actually upped his OPS in 2017, and continued to be the catalyst for a Houston Astros team that is on a crash course towards the World Series. Having finished third a season ago, it's time Altuve wins this award.
     
    American League Cy Young- Chris Sale
    Others receiving votes: Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, Chris Archer, and Carlos Carrasco
     
    The Red Sox paid a hefty price to acquire Sale from the Chicago White Sox, but he's been worth every penny. Virtually a guaranteed win each time out, Sale leads the league in K/9 and FIP while essentially walking no one. He's not afraid of any hitter that steps into the box, and he's probably going to strike them out. If the Red Sox can make a deep Postseason run, it will be on the heels of Sale's dominance.
     
    American League Rookie of the Year- Aaron Judge
    Others receiving votes: Andrew Benintendi and Trey Mancini
     
    Plenty has been made of Judge regressing in the second half, but the reality is his season has been nothing short of spectacular. Leading the AL in homers with 41, Judge has struck out plenty, but he's also coaxed a league leading amount of walks. The right fielder has been at the heart of the Bronx Bombers staying in playoff contention, and he should be plenty of fun for years to come.
     
    American League Manager of the Year- Terry Francona
    Others receiving votes: AJ Hinch and Mike Scioscia
     
    After a World Series loss a season ago, the Indians are again a threat in October. While Francona club stumbled out of the gates, they've turned it on down the stretch. While it was the Astros that looked like they'd run away with the league, Cleveland has held their own and gotten hot at the right time. Dealing with plenty of injuries, and getting more from key contributors like Jose Ramirez, it's impossible to overlook the job Francona has done.
     
    American League Reliever of the Year- Craig Kimbrel
    Others receiving votes: Andrew Miller and Tommy Kahnle
     
    Forget the 32 saves this year for the Read Sox, Kimbreal owns a 1.50 ERA and a ridiculous 1.25 FIP. He's striking out almost 17 batters per nine innings and he has a career best 1.8 BB/9. If there's a guy you don't want to see on the mound in the 9th or any other inning for that matter, it's Craig Kimbrel.
     
    National League MVP- Giancarlo Stanton
    Others receiving votes: Charlie Blackmon, Anthony Rendon, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Seager, Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Zack Cozart
     
    There's been plenty of seasons in which we've wondered what a full year of Giancarlo Stanton might look like. The answer we've been given is that we probably weren't prepared for this. With 50 plus homers already, and the potential to hit 60, his power stroke has been insane. A .644 SLG is an incredible number, and Stanton has taken his OPS to new heights. He plays on a mediocre team, and that was considered, but this offensive year was too fun to ignore.
     
    National League Cy Young- Max Scherzer
    Others receiving votes: Jimmy Nelson, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke
     
    The Nationals made a significant investment when they signed Max Scherzer, and with the deferred money, it could hang over their heads for some time. The club needs to win a World Series with him as their ace, and in 2017, they'll again have a strong shot. Again a strikeout artist, Schewrzer owns a career best 2.32 ERA and his 5.6 H/9 leads the league. He's positioned to repeat as the Cy Young winner, and should tally his third award.
     
    National League Rookie of the Year- Cody Bellinger
    Others receiving votes: Paul DeJong and Ian Happy
     
    Few rookies burst onto the scene and look as complete as the Dodgers Bellinger. Taking over a starting spot since his promotion, Bellinger has been a threat at the plate and an asset in the field since day one. With 34 long balls and a .939 OPS, he's among the best hitters in the National League already. Just 21 years old, Los Angeles is in for a lot of great production from a player advanced well beyond his years.
     
    National League Manager of the Year- Dave Roberts
    Others receiving votes: Dusty Baker and Torey Lovullo
     
    Despite slumping somewhat down the stretch, it can't be overstated as to just how good the Dodgers have been in 2017. The NL West has two other potential playoff teams, and Los Angeles has been double-digit games clear of them for months. The team calling Chavez Ravine home has so much talent, and Roberts has positioned them well for the majority of the season. It's World Series or bust for this grouping, but they have been tough to beat when at their best.
     
    National League Reliever of the Year- Kenley Jansen
    Others receiving votes: Felipe Rivero and Archie Bradley
     
    Jansen just continues to get better each year. Utilizing virtually one pitch, he has mowed down hitters in 2017. With a 14.1 K/9 and just a 1.0 BB/9, he's about as money as it gets when it comes to any high leverage situation. With the Dodgers calling on him to close out games, he's been more up to the task, and he's as much a sure thing as it gets. Jansen is the gold standard when it comes to relief work, and that should continue to be the expectation going forward.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2017, the early narrative for the Minnesota Twins was again the offensive struggles for Byron Buxton. The uber prospect had slumped out of the gate, and that's putting things nicely. Through May, he was hitting just .201, and a June slump bottomed him out at .195 as of July 3rd. Then things changed, and they've only gotten better since. While Buxton has grown at the plate, it also appears he's able to command it as well.
     
    Early in the season, Buxton struggled with both pitch recognition, and contact rates. He seemed to be guessing often, while swinging through offerings at an alarming rate. Through July 3, the Minnesota centerfielder had tallied 156 swinging strikes in 1,027 opportunities (15.19%). Since that date, there's been just 78 swinging strikes across 583 opportunities (13.38%). While the decrease may not be substantial, the locations tell a different story.
     
    When struggling at the plate, Buxton was missing pitches in the heart of the zone. Whether a by-product of poor recognition, or an inability to get the bat around to a contact point, he was simply leaving far too many hittable pitches on the table. Fast forward to where we are now, and pitchers have begun to shy away from the Twins hottest hitter. Owning a .368/.409/.654 slash line across 39 G since the 4th of July, that's not surprising, but Buxton has dictated that change. The opposition is now needing to use the outside edge of the zone, as well as going up and away, to get him swinging through pitches.
     
    There's also a significant difference in the quality of contact Buxton is making. With 50 hits since July 4, he already has surpassed the 46 he recorded in his first 78 games. Now seeing pitches more clearly, and displaying a better ability to generate solid contact, Buxton has barreled twice as many base hits. Balls in play have come off with better launch angles, and the expected outcomes have only trended upwards.
     
    At different points throughout the year, we've heard notions that the goal for Buxton needed to be beating the ball into the ground. Whether by bunting or hitting sharp grounders, the though process was that his speed would turn those scenarios into base hits. While that could've been a training mentality, it's not a mindset that ever made sense, and hopefully not one the Twins truly imposed upon the young hitter. At any rate, his surge has seen an increased lift on the ball, and as the launch angle of base hits has grown, so has the overall productivity. It's a pretty basic concept that a hitter isn't going to drive balls into the gaps or generate home runs on balls that are hit on the ground. As Buxton has lifted the ball, his slash line has followed suit.
     
    In summary, it's really been a perfect storm for the Twins young outfielder. He went from having a .280 BABIP, 30.5% chase rate, and 13.9 SwStr% through July 3rd to completely flipping the script. Since that point, those numbers are .432 BABIp, 32.6% chase rate, and 10.8 SwStr%. Still susceptible to expanding the zone, Buxton has covered the entirety of its center,. As opposing pitchers attack him insider or on the outside edge, the next goal will be to define a strong sense of discipline to lay off anything he can't execute on.
     
    What's maybe most scary for Buxton is that there's still room to grow. Expecting a guy to hang onto a .400+ BABIP isn't realistic, but continuing to hone in on the strike zone would help to curve any expected regression. All of this is being done while playing elite, Gold Glove level, defense and that only adds to his overall value. After being a negative fWAR player for early portions of the season, Buxton has jumped that mark all the way to 3.2 trailing only Brian Dozier among Twins. It appears this is much more than a brief flash in the pan moment, and for a 2018 squad that should be legitimate Postseason contenders, that's a great development to bank on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2017 Major League Baseball season has been one that's proven incredibly tough to read for the Minnesota Twins. After pacing the division for much of the first half, there's been multiple times in which the club looks to have lost all hope. As the summer draws to a close however, they've hung around, and it's been in large part to a handful of key pieces getting hot.
     
    Coming off a franchise worst 103 losses, there should have been a massive expectation that this Twins would rebound. While they weren't a team destined for the Postseason, 2015 and 16 highlighted the volatility of young players. After surpassing expectations two years ago, virtually the same group failed them mightily last year. Once again on the upswing, this group is probably much closer to a settling in point.
     
    The veterans in the lineup are doing their part to keep a good thing going. Chief among them, Brian Dozier, is once again experiencing his patented August surge. Recently written about at Twins Daily, Dozier has consistently turn in a strong month to round of the summer. Now through 12 games, he has six home runs and a .340/.375/.736 slash line. Dating back to July 14, the Twins second basemen has posted a .982 OPS, and is once again trending towards a strong finish.
     
    On a much smaller scale, Joe Mauer has always experience a slump and a streak in August. After starting slow, he turned series against the Brewers and Tigers into a .321/.387/.464 slash line that has brought his batting average back up to .279. While he's no longer going to contend for batting titles, he's remained an asset against right-handed pitching, and is contributing at the best time possible.
     
    Looking at youth, the continued emergence of Eddie Rosario has been a sight to behold. While you could consider him a bad ball hitter, the reality is more that he simply chases balls that he has no business swinging at. Arguably his greatest knock as a pro remains his plate discipline, and the amount of time he spends expanding the strike zone. As the months have gone on in 2017 however, he's continued to dial that reality back, and leads Minnesota in batting average because of it.
     
    Now experiencing career best chase rates and swinging strike marks over the past two months, Eddie Rosario owns a .333/.376/.581 line since July 1st, and has put forth a 1.143 OPS in the month of August. In dialing back his approach, he's become arguably the Twins best hitter, and one that hits for both power and contact. Despite the defensive dip this season, he's been incredible at the plate.
     
    On a lesser scale, Byron Buxton is again rounding into form. Since July 4th (and with a DL stint in between), Buxton owns a .371/.420/.500 line across 19 games. Dating way back to May 9, Buxton has played in 71 games for the Twins and has posted a .258/.322/.355 OPS, While that isn't going to do much offensively, combined with his Gold Glove ability in center, that makes him an incredible asset. Whether he continues to shape into a player reflective of the smaller or larger sample size remains to be seen, but the promise is still through the roof.
     
    Unfortunately, players like Miguel Sano and Max Kepler haven't yet hopped on the streaking bandwagon. While each has seen their struggles down the stretch, the hope would be that each has a nice burst left to finish the year. It's absolutely promising however, to see such an offensive contribution from so many different parts of the lineup.
     
    At the end of the day, the Twins probably still aren't a Postseason team in 2017. What the stretch run is showing us however, is that the expectation for 2018 should be a Postseason berth. Given the landscape of the division, and the emergence of this group, things are trending in the Twins favor. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Minnesota is on a better pace than the 2015 squad, and is going to play some really exciting baseball right up until the dust settles.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    The 2017 Minnesota Twins have been among the luckiest teams in baseball. No matter how you define luck, arguably the most indicative stat in the game is run differential. Despite being incredibly lopsided in that category, Minnesota finds themselves sitting at .500 on August 10. While it creates somewhat of a mirage for the current season, it highlights the excitement that 2018 should bring with it.
     
    Coming into 2017, Minnesota was looking to turn the page on a season that resulted in a franchise worst 103 losses. Despite not being indicative of their true talent level, the organization absolutely had to reverse course. As the development of young players has continued, they've achieved that result, and will begin 2018 with a whole new outlook. A year from now, we should be watching a team with a realistic Postseason opportunity, and there's a few reasons why.
     
    Maturation Of Youth
     
    It can't be overstated how volatile young players are at the highest level. Miguel Sano went from a rookie phenom, to a sophomore slump, to now settling in to a slugger that can play adequate defense. Max Kepler has struggled mightily against lefties, but has proven valuable, and Jorge Polanco has been forced to work through his first professional struggles. Throw in the emergence of Jose Berrios and the development of Byron Buxton, and the Twins have a nice set of building blocks.
     
    Next season, Minnesota can afford to add in pieces like Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Mitch Garver and a host of bullpen arms with the notion that they'll be taken care of. The roster got younger and more talented at the same time, allowing the group to progress and grow together. There's little doubt that some of the next wave will take their lumps too, but the group as a whole will be better positioned for sustainability than in 2016.
     
    The Depth Of The Division
     
    We are starting to see this play out now, but to begin 2018, only the Twins and Indians will have a realistic shot at winning the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox have already gone into a full blown rebuild, and the Kansas City Royals are an offseason away from watching half of their roster walk out the door. In Detroit, the 25 man was held onto too long, has gotten old, and now will need to be pieced together.
     
    Looking at where each organization is presently, only Cleveland and Minnesota appear to have the pieces for sustained winning in the near future. Even before making offseason moves, the Twins find themselves in an enviable spot within their own division. Consider the fact that they'll play those teams most often, and the Twins could wind up with among the easiest schedules in baseball during 2018.
     
    The Front Office Makes Its Mark
     
    It's been mostly a feeling out period for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine this year, that will change over the winter. Front office personnel have already been shown the door, and the expectation should be that it will continue in the coming months. I'd be shocked if Paul Molitor is back, and there will be other coaching staff changes that likely follow.
     
    While a big league manager may not make an incredible amount of difference, over the course of 162 games, a better option can steal a few victories. Look for Falvey and Levine to bring in people ready to elevate the play of their young roster, and get the most out of them for years to come. Who is put in charge this offseason in key positions, has the potential to bear fruit well down the line.
     
    We could take a look at the opportunities outside of the organization as well, but even before that, it's apparent Minnesota has things going for them. During the winter, Minnesota will be in a position to spend and supplement internal talent for the first time in a while. They can realistically elevate their Postseason positioning by making key and timely acquisitions. Knowing that those moves can be paired with a formula already trending in the right direction; the Twins have to be looking ahead with a smile.
     
    Although the excitement of meaningful games late in the season is back during the 2017 season, it'll be a year from now that the Minnesota Twins should be discussing how their Postseason starting rotation looks. It will actually matter, because they'll have fall games to go and win.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Ervin Santana has been the talk of baseball in the first half of the 2017 Major League season. He has bucked his career trends and been among the games best starters. While there has been some slipping of late, against the Los Angeles Angels, Santana recorded his 4th complete game of the season. Unfortunately he ends up on the wrong side of the decision, only to highlight the uselessness of the pitcher win.
     
    For the past few years, there's been any number of talking heads that have pointed out baseball's dated numbers. From statistics such as Wins to saves, and ERA to batting average, we're at a place in the game where we can more accurately understand it. In the tilt between the Twins and the Angels on July 5th, we saw more than a few of those useless statistics in play.
     
    First and foremost, Santana's complete game comes into focus. It was his fourth of the 2017 season, meaning he's already thrown more as an individual, than any other team in baseball. Across the 9.0 innings he worked, Angels hitters tallied 7 hits and 2 runs while walking twice and striking out five times. Throwing 80 of his 117 pitches for strikes, Santana was economical, and largely sharp on the evening. When the dust settled though, the win went to Angels rookie Parker Bridwell. Bridwell was fantastic in his own right, but threw three less innings before handing the game over to his relievers.
     
    Then there's the double whammy of how Santana lost his opportunity, and it hurt his line as well. With Cameron Maybin at 3rd base and Kole Calhoun at 1st, the Angels made Minnesota look like an aloof bunch of high schoolers. Calhoun broke for second, and Minnesota Catcher Jason Castro fired all the way through to second. Neither Brian Dozier nor Eduardo Escobar acted as if there was a steal play on to cut the ball off and throw home. Maybin has plenty of speed, and he made it home easily as the Twins essentially gave him the run. All of this took place while Santana stood on the mound and watched, being credited with an earned run.
     
    Looking back at that series of events as a whole, it couldn't be more clear why surface stats have been now aided by a further dive into what takes place on the diamond. ERA is hardly the be-all-end-all for a pitcher. Given the discretion of an official scorer, a pitcher is at the mercy of interpretation. In this instance, that run was much more Castro, Dozier, and probably even Paul Molitor's fault than it was the pitcher's. In allowing that runner to cross the plate Minnesota's run in the bottom of the 7th just drew Santana closer, but didn't lead to him having an opportunity to get the win.
     
    Baseball Prospectus' Aaron Gleeman tweeted out after last night's game that Bert Blyleven owns the most complete game losses in Twins history with 45. While that seems like a staggering number (and it is), what's worse is how good he was in those games. he went on to highlight that while Bert went 0-45 in those games, he posted an ERA of 2.99. So, Blyleven was exactly as good as Santana has been all of 2017 as a whole (his ERA currently sits at 2.99) and gave his Minnesota teams 9 innings, just to be tagged with a loss each time.
     
    I can understand why needing to pin the win or loss on a pitcher is a necessary practice. With that being said, there should absolutely be the caveat that the weight it carries is minimal at best, and rarely indicative of the game's actual flow.
     
    When pitchers are being decided upon for awards at the end of the season, the win stat is one often pointed to. Last year's AL Cy Young winner was 22-game winner Rick Porcello. Given the landscape of options in 2016, he was far from an egregious choice, but it was likely that win total that tipped the scales for him over the equally (or maybe more) deserving Justin Verlander.
     
    At the end of the day, Ervin Santana twirled a gem for no less than the fourth time in 2017. He wasn't credited with a statistic saying as much and his overall numbers suffered due to a gaffe he had nothing to do with. All baseball statistics aren't created equal, and the more we challenge the validity of each, the better understanding we will have.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    For years I tuned into the Home Run Derby during All Star Week of the Major League Baseball season. In the days prior, I planned to make it a must see TV event, and always made sure the schedule was blocked out. When the festivities came to Target Field, I was there in person to take in the slugging spectacle. Each year though, I walked away feeling a bit empty. Then 2015 happened.
     
    After years of wondering how to spice up the event, I became convinced Major League Baseball hit gold. In putting a timer on each participant, the goal was to hit bombs quickly. You could still launch them, as it would give you bonus points, but liners served a purpose as well. An event that had become stale due to batters watching for the perfect pitch, was once again rejuvenated with some extra flair.
     
    In 2016, the field featured somewhat of a darkhorse in hometown team product Wil Myers. Then there were boppers like Giancarlo Stanton and Mark Trumbo. Past participant Todd Frazier was back, and he looked to knock off Stanton in the final round. When the dust settled though, it was the Marlins slugger who powered his way, with some moonshots sprinkled in, to a total of 61 dingers through the three rounds. No one watching could have walked away from the event with anything but excitement for what had just taken place.
     
    Fast forwarding to this season, it's hard not to get excited about what we may see on Monday July 10. Stanton has already announced he'll defend his crown, and it's been reported that the Twins Miguel Sano will also take place. Throw in the possibility of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, and you have an amazing combination of strength, as well as youth, to put on display.
     
    The derby itself caters to those with endurance. It's no doubt a workout having to swing the bat that hard, that often, in that short of a time span. Returning hitters like Stanton find an upper hand in knowing what to expect, but you'd be hard pressed to find people willing to be against other names in that type of a star studded field. It's what they've all done to this point in the season however, that may make everything that much more exciting.
     
    For the majority of 2017, Miguel Sano has paced Major League Baseball in average exit velocity. Recently relinquishing that lead, he now trails only Aaron Judge. The Yankees rookie right fielder leads baseball in longballs with 27, and the Dodgers young star Bellinger check in right behind him with 24. Although Stanton (20) and Sano (18) don't have quite the numbers of the top two, there's no denying their ability to put some distance between a ball and home plate.
     
    Digging a bit deeper into the statistics, there's even more numbers to suggest that this foursome could put on a show. Per Fangraphs, Sano ranks first in MLB among hard hit % (50%). Bellinger is second at 49% and Judge is tied for 5th at 48.3%. Then there's the HR/FB ratio, where each of the four players ranks in the top 15. Judge paces baseball (41.5%), Bellinger checks in 3rd (32.4%), Sano finds himself 11th (26.9%), and Stanton is 13th (25.6%). That all of these guys are hitting the ball out of the yard on one of four fly balls during a game, only raises expectations of what they can do in a derby scenario.
     
    While we have to wait and see in regards to a full participant list, there's no doubt baseball fans should be clamoring for each of these guys to show up. The Future's Game and All Star Game itself will be fun this season, but it's this Derby that could end up topping them all. The groundwork was laid back in 2015 with the event itself returning to relevancy, now the sport has a cast list it can select that would be nothing short of A-listers.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Way back in November, I wrote that the Twins number one priority before the 2017 season should be to sign a legitimate catcher. With Kurt Suzuki on his way out, they needed someone that could command the game behind the plate. Jason Castro brought that, and has helped in being an answer to the Twins pitching woes. The other part of the equation is the defensive mastery Minnesota has shown, and it continues to be the narrative in 2017.
     
    Right now, we are through just 59 games in the 2017 season, and the Twins have already used eight different starting pitchers and 23 total arms. Of those starters, only Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios have an ERA south of 4.00. Three pitchers, all of which were in the Opening Day rotation (Hughes, Gibson, and Santiago), have started at least nine games with ERA's north of 5.00. Among Twins starters, only Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia are truly striking anyone out.
     
    In short, the summary of the Twins starting staff remains relatively status quo. It's a group of guys that don't get the ball by many big leaguers, and the final spots are interchangeable as the club looks for someone to stick. Because of the strong performances by both Santana and Berrios however, Minnesota is 13th in the MLB when it comes to starter ERA. Given where the club has been in recent seasons, that's a significant leap forward.
     
    The story hasn't been great in the bullpen either. With eight different starters being used, the Twins have turned to 15 different pen arms already. The group has compiled a 5.48 ERA, dead last in all of baseball. Right now, there's still room to cycle guys in, and with the likes of Matt Belisle and Criag Breslow struggling, 40 man roster moves could be coming as well.
     
    Really what Minnesota is showing us, is that the results are indicative of minor tweaks, rather than a completely redone process. A year ago, the Twins used 11 different starters and a club record, 29 different pitchers. I'd bet we get by the latter number, but this club is currently in first place. 2016 was a perfect storm of failed expectations across the board. In deciding to look at catching and defense, Minnesota has masked what otherwise could've been another disastrous pitching season.
     
    It's relatively difficult to quantify Jason Castro's presence behind the plate, but it's not hard to see. He commands the zone as good as anyone in the big league's, and he's been a welcomed presence for pitcher's that have really needed him at times. His framing skills are heralded, but the effect he has on a game goes deeper. With a 39% caught stealing percentage, the running game has been mitigated to a certain extent, and pitchers are more easily able to focus on the task at hand.
     
    When you get to the fielders, the Twins are much more than just Byron Buxton in center field. With 27 DRS on the season, Minnesota is second in baseball (Red have 34 DRS) when it comes to saving runs, Looking at UZR, Minnesota checks in right behind the Reds (19.1) with an 18.1 mark. Given the ranger of players not only in the outfield, but Joe Mauer at first base, the club is getting to more balls than the vast majority of big league clubs. Although their pitchers are still struggling to get the ball by hitters, it being put in play is no longer a detriment.
     
    Each time you look at the Twins having to cycle out a pitcher and bring someone else in, there's a bit of gloom that sets over someone not living up to expectations. In 2017 though, the pitching staff is just a small cog in an otherwise well-oiled machine. This organization couldn't say that a year ago, as the total of its parts were a mess. Right now, the Twins can plug in multiple options on the mound, and be confident in the guy behind the dish, and the seven fielders on the diamond.
     
    At some point, Minnesota can significantly raise the water level by adding some impact pitching. Whether that's through the draft, trades, or free agency, a big time starter or two will only advance this club further. For now though, the pitching is just a part of the puzzle, and while the job is lackluster at times, the sum of all parts equals a really positive result.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Right now, Sam Carlson is a senior at Burnsville High School. In a matter of a couple weeks, he'll very likely be able to call himself a professional baseball player. On top of being tabbed as a first round pick in the upcoming Major League Baseball draft, Carlson is expected to be the first prep pitcher ever taken that high from the state of Minnesota. That level of hype comes with big shoes to fill, but Carlson appears ready.
     
    I had the privilege of speaking with Carlson as his final high school season winds down. He's done pitching in the regular season for Burnsville, but obviously has postseason aspirations. With a busy next few weeks ahead, he'll have plenty on his plate, but if there's someone that can take it all in stride, it appears to be him. Covering a handful of different baseball related topics, here's how our discussion went.
     
    Off The Baggy: Starting off with your senior season at Burnsville, how much has felt like a whirlwind? You've had a great season, managed school, and have had a large audience each time you've taken the mound.
     
    Sam Carlson: My senior season has been one to remember. Our playoffs begin soon and we are looking to make a run. It is my last time playing with some of my friends who I have played with since I was 10 years old. Between balancing school, baseball and my personal life, it hasn't been too bad. I have really enjoyed it and wouldn't change it for anything.
     
    OTB: Looking ahead to college, I know you've committed to Florida. What drew you to the SEC and ultimately landed you with the Gators?
     
    SC: I wanted to play for the Florida Gators since I was a kid. For one reason or another, it was my dream school. After seeing Logan Shore go there, who played for the same club team I did growing up, gave me hope that I could do the same one day. After going through the recruiting process and taking my visits I felt like it was the best fit for me, with an outstanding baseball program, great academics and intriguing weather for a Minnesotan. Everything seemed to fall in place for me and I knew I made the right decision committing to Florida.
     
    OTB: Obviously the MLB Draft has to come up. Have you thought at all about being the first ever 1st round prep pitcher from Minnesota? What would that mean to you?
     
    SC: It has been pretty cool to see stuff like that. Whatever happens I want to represent Minnesota the best I can and prove to people around the country that we have talent up here, it is just sometimes overlooked. I want to make people from our state proud with whatever the next step I take is.
     
    OTB: When looking at the next level, college or pro, what separates you? What do you think puts you in the best position to compete and excel?
     
    SC: What I think separates me at the next level is my ability to pitch. I am able to use my change-up in a way that a lot of players don't figure out for a long time. I also think that my maturity and self control on the mound gives me an advantage at the next level.
     
    OTB: A lot is always going to be made about velocity on the mound, but tell me about your pitch offerings and your style in attacking opposing hitters?
     
    SC: I have a three pitch mix with my fastball, slider and change-up. I am able to throw all three pitches for strikes especially when I am down in the count. My style is not to blow it by hitters, but rather to learn from them throughout the game and pitch to them in an effective way. I think my secondary offerings are pitches that are above average which leads to my unique style of pitching.
     
    OTB: How has the draft process been for you? Have you enjoyed the extra attention, or has it been something you've used to motivate yourself and just continue to go about your game?
     
    SC: The draft process has been fun for me. When I am between the lines I don't worry about anything going on in the stands. It is very motivating seeing all of my hard work pay off, but in the end it just motivates me even more. Hopefully this is just the beginning.
     
    It indeed feels like this is just the beginning for Sam. Whatever path he chooses, there's sure to be plenty of success ahead. Likely with the Twins out of the picture, Carlson will create fans for a new organization from all over the state. He has the chops to pitch in the big leagues one day, and he's well on his way there.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    In his second start of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, Jose Berrios looked like some sort of well tested veteran for the Minnesota Twins. Not only was he taking on one of baseball's best teams in the Colorado Rockies, but he thoroughly and completely dominated them.
     
    Sure, there was the 11 strikeouts. Yeah, he lasted into the 8th inning, working 7.2 IP. And economical, definitely, as he needed just 106 pitches to get that work in. More than the surface numbers though, Berrios' results were punctuated by some truly exceptional moments.
     
    Over the course of his outing, he got 20 swinging strikes. To put that into context, he threw 72 strikes in total. That means 28% of the pitches he threw for strikes had Rockies batters swinging right through. Truly an incredible amount, it's not all that surprising given the movement on his pitches. There was the frisbee of a curveball that he tossed to Ian Desmond. The Rockies first basemen was quoted postgame suggesting that Berrios reminded him of the late Jose Fernandez on the mound.
     
    It wasn't just the curveball that Berrios had working though, his fastball has some seriously incredible move. In this pitch to Raimel Tapia, that turned into a strike em' out, throw em' out double play, Berrios' fastball gets more movement than anything I've seen since Ubaldo Jimenez's magical season with Colorado. The ball starts on the edge of the plate, and Tapia literally has no chance as the ball casually darts away from his bat.
    When looking at what it was that cause Rockies hitters to swing and miss, Berrios didn't discriminate. He was generating whiffs on three of his four pitches (excluding his changeup) and the curveball consistently was getting batters to chase way out of the zone.
     
    That bender is something Berrios is obviously confident in as well. He threw it in a handful of different counts, and the 36 curveballs he tossed accounted for 34% of his total on the night. In fact, Berrios virtually operated with a two pitch mix. His fastball (which he does throw both a four and two seam) was used right around 50% of the time. That curve was really his only other offering, as he used his changeup on just six different occasions.
     
    It's been a pretty incredible two start sample size, especially considering how his first 14 career starts went. While it's unfair to assume this level of dominance as the norm going forward, we've now seen why Berrios has had such a long hype train following him through the minor leagues. He should safely settle in as a third starter for the Twins, and he has the ability and drive to push the envelope.
    As he continues to take the ball every 5th day, the keys to focus in on will remain pitch economy as well as just how impressive the movement he gets on his pitches is. Short in stature, it is in that movement that hitters are deceived, and that will help to allow Berrios opportunity to stay ahead of opposing batters. The pitch plane isn't ever going to work in his favor, but when his ball darts the distance of the zone, even the best big leaguers are going to struggle.
     
    May 18, 2017 was among the best starting pitching efforts ever recorded in a Twins uniform. For an organization void of strikeouts for so long, it appears Berrios will pile them up in bunches. If he's going to continue bringing a frisbee to the ballpark, this should be a lot of fun.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Last season was anything but glorious for the Minnesota Twins' Phil Hughes. He broken a bone on a comebacker, and ultimately watched his season end after just 59.0 IP. While shelved, he had a rib removed (undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery), and the 2016 campaign turned into a giant recovery stint. Fast forward a year and the Twins hurler is learning to embrace his new reality.
     
    It's fair to suggest that Hughes has never been much of a burner. Even at his best with the Twins in 2014, he threw just an average of 92 mph on his fastball. What he always has been in Minnesota however, is a guy that issues very few free passes, and watches his strikeouts play off of that notion. After setting an all-time major league record in K/BB rate during the 2014 season, Hughes has watched his effectiveness slip. Regardless of whether or not the injuries mounted last year, it's fair to wonder if he wouldn't need to adapt.
     
    This season though, it's been all about adaptation for Hughes. Working as the Twins number three starter out of the gate, he had some pressure lifted off of him with how good both Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago have been. Despite an ugly start against the Indians, it's hard to argue that Hughes has been anything but acceptable.
     
    Through his first six turns in the rotation, Hughes owns a 4.32 ERA that's backed by a 4.35 FIP (his best mark since 2014). His 5.7 K/9 is also the best total since 2014, and he's issuing less free passes at just 1.6 BB/9. Home runs continue to be a bugaboo for him, but that's virtually always been the case, and something you almost have to live with at this point.
     
    What is most interesting about Hughes this season, is how he is going about getting results. Both his changeup and knuckle curve have seen a slight dip in velocity, but he's actually utilizing them quite often. Thus far, Hughes has thrown fastballs only 22.5% of the time (per Fangraphs) while pushing knuckle curves across one-fifth of the time (20.6%) and using changeups 18.8% of the time.
     
    In breaking down his offerings, it's the changeup number that jumps off the page. At 18.8% of the time, Hughes is relying on his changeup nearly 14% more often than his career average of 4.9%. Given the roughly 10 mph dip from his fastball, it keeps hitters out front and off of his pitches. It also shouldn't go unsaid that pitching coach Neil Allen, is a noted chanegup guru, and that has likely played a significant role here.
     
    Hughes is allowing a higher hard hit rate (43.6% in 2017 up from 37.7% and 31.2% the past two years), but he's giving up less line drives and his 9.3% HR/FB ratio is actually the lowest it's been since bottoming out at 6.2% in 2014. He's forcing hitters to stay off of his fastball, and deal with the offspeed stuff, which in turn, has shifted thinking about what type of pitcher he is.
     
    The level of confidence and trust in both the knuckle curve and changeup also flesh out very high in situations where he's ahead. When batters are facing 0-1,0-2, or 1-2 counts, they are seeing nearly a 50% mix of chanegups and knuckle curves. Conversely, when Hughes finds himself down in the count, he's going with that same mix, throwing changeups and knuckle curves 47.2% of the time.
     
    Whether a by-product of the surgery, or a simple adjustment to style, Hughes has transformed himself from a two-seam/cutter guy, into a changeup/knuckle curve thrower. He's finessing players out, and feels ok about balls being hit in the air, as the Twins now employ one of the best outfield defenses in all of baseball.
     
    It should be noted that Father Time is undefeated, and that regardless of the amount of procedures a body undergoes, a level of adaptation is required. When a veteran continues to roll towards the latter half of their career, there will be a point that a renaissance is needed. In changing your philosophy, or finding something else that works, a new level of effectiveness can be achieved. It appears Phil Hughes has embraced this head on, and right now, the results are rewarding him for it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    In the past few days, the Minnesota Twins have made more than a few roster shakeups. With Nick Tepesch hanging out on the 25 man roster waiting for his first big league start since 2016, the club also sent Danny Santana and Michael Tonkin packing. While those moves each have implications of their own, it's the corresponding moves that are telling for this club. To separate from what was, the organization must begin to do things differently.
     
    Starting Tepesch against the Boston Red Sox during a weekend series, the Twins decided that Jose Berrios wasn't quite ready for the big leagues in 2017. Despite owning a 1.09 ERA .157 BAA and 9.5 K/9 with a 2.2 BB/9 in 33 innings prior to the tilt with Boston, Minnesota apparently needed more. Instead, Tepesch was sent out, having not worked since April 20, and having not been a real big league starter since 2014. The results don't justify the question, although Tepesch lasted just 1.2 IP, but it was a curious move at the time.
     
    With Berrios, the idea has always been that he needed to work on more than just surface level production. Given that he's all but dominated the Triple-A level, pitch economy as well as command was always going to be the areas he needed to hone in on. However, it would appear that it's something he's done well to grasp this season, and could be a real asset to the Twins starting rotation.
     
    Sticking with pitching, Minnesota DFA'd Michael Tonkin. In doing so, they opened up a 40 man roster spot, and chose to go with veteran reliever Drew Rucinski. At 28, Rucinski hadn't pitched in the big leagues since 2015, and had totaled just 14.1 IP at the highest level in his career. Across 277.2 IP at Triple-A, Rucinski had compiled a lackluster 5.74 ERA, hardly worth getting excited about. Despite Minnesota not having top arms like Mason Melotakis or Nick Burdi at Triple-A, they passed over names such as Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, or Aaron Slegers, who are in Rochester.
     
    Not unexpectedly, Rucinski didn't fool many big league hitters, and gave up two runs on five hits over 3.1 IP in his Twins debut. It wasn't disastrous, but there's little reason to believe that the water level is much higher there. Given the fact he was added to the 40 man roster for that level of production, you'd hope the club could do more.
     
    Rounding out the trio of moves was the expected DFA of Danny Santana. Much to the chagrin of Paul Molitor, Santana always seemed destined to be moved as soon as offseason acquisition Ehire Adrianza was healthy. As that came to fruition, the move was made, and Santana can now be had by any team in the big leagues.
     
    Adrianza presents a clear upgrade with the glove, although he doesn't hit. That's probably a net positive over Santana, who couldn't field or hit, but Ehire is a weird peg for this club. Given Eduardo Escobar's role as the utility man for this team, watching the two coexist is somewhat of a puzzling ask. While Escobar doesn't possess a glove to the same capability, he's arguably the superior player, and Minnesota could definitely be better off with a more focused hitter off the bench (namely a right-handed bat).
     
    What we can summarize though from the moves the Twins initially made, is a very real hope that this club isn't done. Drew Rucinski doesn't do much for a big league club, and Nick Tepesch seems all but washed out as well. Adrianza has value, but less so to this club, and the organization needs to work through a more ideal fit. These moves really signify the shuffling of deck chairs, and there's not much advancement made in any of the callups.
     
    If the Twins are going to differentiate themselves from the previous regime, it's going to take place in raising the water level. Gone must be the days of replacing mediocrity with more mediocrity. Players like Jose Berrios don't grow on tress, but there's higher level talent on the farm than the likes of a Rucinski or Tepesch type, and giving those guys run is what needs to be seen.
     
    As things stand now, I'd view (and hope) some of these moves as very short term or temporary. Given that notion, it's hard to be too up in arms about them currently. However, the shift towards more talent absolutely must take place. Minnesota can't continue to cycle in the same types of players and think change is going to come. Restack the deck and give yourself more opportunity, rather than simply reshuffling it and hoping that the cards fall differently.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there were few things that looked like a bigger question mark for the Minnesota Twins than their bullpen. With an uncertain starting rotation, the pen had been comprised mainly of holdovers, with veteran additions of Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow. What’s worth noting though, is the Twins have their own secret weapon.
     
    Last fall, we saw relievers put onto full display in the Postseason and World Series. The Chicago Cubs leaned on Aroldis Chapman heavily, and no arm was more valuable to their team than Andrew Miller late in games. What was interesting with Miller, is that while he’d likely be the most dominant closer in baseball, Terry Francona routinely brought him into games much earlier.
     
    Throughout the Postseason, we saw a pitcher being used in a very unconventional way. Miller has become the gold standard in the big leagues out of the pen, and the Indians turned to him whenever they needed an out. Entering games with runners on in key situations, Miller’s usage bucked the trend of saving your top arm for the final inning. He allowed Cleveland to escape jams and hold onto leads. While the Twins don’t have Andrew Miller, they have their own way to recreate the same scenario.
     
    Enter Ryan Pressly.
     
    During the offseason, much has been made about what the Twins will do at closer. Brandon Kintzler hanging onto the job while striking no one out is a big ask, and Glen Perkins could be all but done with his major league career. The consensus is that next in line would be either J.T. Chargois or Pressly. For now though, Pressly gives the Twins a really, really nice weapon.
     
    Recently, Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse tweeted “Modern bullpen use: Ryan Pressly is Twins best, but not the closer. He's getting 2 outs & leaving lead run on 3rd earlier.” He couldn’t be more spot on. In the third game of the season, Pressly entered in relief of Craig Breslow during the 6th inning. With runners on second and third in a tight game, Pressly got two straight outs and allowed the Twins to leave the inning still tied up.
     
    Pressly turned in an 8.00 K/9 in 2016, and got strikeouts against just north of 20% of the batters he faced. Each year since joining the Twins as a Rule 5 pick in 2013, Pressly has upped his velocity, averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball a year ago. He also features a wipeout slider at 88 mph and a strong curveball in the low 80s. Posting a new career high, Pressly generated swing strikes 11.7% of the time a year ago, and he was forcing batters to chase out of the zone one-third of the time.
    For 2017, Pressly makes right around $7 million less than the Indians superstar, and he has nowhere near the same level of fanfare. Don’t let that fool you though, Paul Molitor has a weapon of his own. While it may be conventional wisdom to have Pressly work the eighth or close games for the Twins, using him as a shutdown arm when the game commands it most gives Minnesota an advantage that is all too valuable.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there were some very fair concerns surrounding the Minnesota Twins. The team was coming off a franchise worst, 103 loss season, and the offseason didn't bring much in the form of change. That being said, most of the concerns for the upcoming year were pitching related, and really, it should remain that way. The reality is that this team should hit, and we've seen that early.
     
    The crux of the argument that the 2017 squad should be significantly better than a year ago is built around a progression concept. With a roster filled with developing cornerstones, experience should result in growth and then equal production. Players like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and even Eddie Rosario, should only be more productive year over year for the foreseeable future. In the batters box, this team should be expected to compete.
     
    There's very little to take away from a small week on sample size. Combine that with the fact that the Kansas City Royals don't have a very good pitching staff on their own, and your left with mostly speculation. However, in the first couple games of the season, Minnesota has shown discipline, power, and production at the plate. Betting on that to cease is probably a fool's errand.
     
    A year ago, the Twins were 16th in MLB scoring 722 runs, and that mark was good enough for just ninth in the American League. From an OPS perspective, Minnesota checked in at just 8th in the American League, and 13th overall. They clubbed exactly 200 homers (12th in MLB), and drew 513 walks (13th). As a whole, the Twins were average at best, and with a poor pitching staff, that just wasn't going to get it done.
     
    Noting the development and progression I spoke of earlier, expecting a slight jump into the top third of both the big leagues and the American League is a realistic bet for Minnesota. They had just two players (Dozier and Sano) hit 20+ longballs last season, and that number should almost certainly double in 2017. Dozier and Sano remain candidates to repeat, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and ByungHo Park realistic candidates to join them. There's no doubt this team will strike out, but as evidenced in their second game of the year, they'll take free passes on bad pitching (Twins drew 9 walks against Kansas City).
     
    As with the bulk of Major League Baseball teams, the Twins will only go as far as their pitching is going to carry them in 2017, but their offense will provide plenty of opportunities. 2016 was a historically bad year on the mound, so that in and of itself has some real room to reverse its course. Combined with better defense, especially in the outfield, and the expectation that pitching with leads will be more common, this club could provide some fireworks.
     
    Early on this year, Paul Molitor has displayed a welcomed ability to understand that lineup effectiveness can be bolstered against different handed pitchers. He has new voices like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler to aide him, along with a front office that is well equipped to help him put his own best foot forward.
     
    In short, 2017 still has plenty of questions for the Twins to answer, but whether or not the offense will be an effective one, is not among them.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    The United States captured their first ever World Baseball Classic trophy. After coming up short in the previous three contests, it was the fourth time that the American's captured the title. In doing so, they knocked off a Puerto Rican squad that had earlier bested them in the tourney. It is that Puerto Rican team that ended up being the focus for many Twins fans as well.
     
    Although there was a handful of players with Twins ties all over World Baseball Classic rosters, it was Jose Berrios, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas playing on a stacked Puerto Rican squad that drew the most concentration. What's interesting, and maybe maddening for Minnesota, is that each of the trio had a very different experience during the tournament.
     
    The reality of the situation is that we're looking at a max of an eight game sample size, and right around 30 at bats for position players. That's incredibly foolish to draw any conclusions based off of (as Nolan Arenado displayed in the title game), but there's plenty to be said about process and how things played out.
     
    With Puerto Rico advancing to the Championship, the squad played in eight games from March 12-22. In those eight games, Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario played in six of them compiling 19 at bats. He hit to a solid OPS, and the highlight of his tournament was easily the laser he threw to catcher Yadier Molina to cut down a runner at the plate. For his part in the tournament, the Twins have to be happy with how his dice roll shook out.
     
    Rosario was likely always a lock for the Opening Day roster. He had a less than ideal season a year ago, both at the plate and defensively. In participating in the World Baseball Classic, he was able to accumulate similar at bats to those he was missing in Grapefruit League action, and showed positive signs of being ready for the season. He'll settle in as a regular for Minnesota, and if he can continue to hone in on the strike zone, a big season could be in store for him.
     
    On the opposite end of the spectrum, Minnesota finds Kennys Vargas. He was given a vote of confidence to win the starting DH spot when ByungHo Park was removed from the 40 man roster. Although I've never seen Vargas as the superior player, it seemed Minnesota was going to allow him an opportunity to prove it. In WBC play though, Vargas was cast more along the lines of how I view him ever fitting with Minnesota.
     
    Across the eight games, Vargas played in just three. The Twins first basemen routinely sat behind T.J. Rivera, a guy that's started a whopping 33 G at first across 600+ professional outings. Vargas struck out in just under half of his at bats (4/9), and while he did hit a home run, was routinely an afterthought. Not only did he miss out on vital spring plate appearances, but he's likely had to watch as ByungHo Park's spring has also overtaken his 25 man roster spot. That dice roll couldn't have gone worse for Minnesota. Their plan didn't work, and their guy didn't get his work in.
     
    Landing somewhere in the middle is arguably the most talented of the group, Jose Berrios. Expected to be in the competition for the 5th starter role, Berrios was given the opportunity to throw in just two contests.
     
    His first outing was a five inning start that featured a blow up, two home run inning, and was then solidified by being a six strikeout and one walk performance. Pitching for the last time in the title game, he was brought on in relief. After striking out four of the first five hitters he faced and looking untouchable, Berrios gave up a hit, hit Eric Hosmer, and walked a batter. When the dust settled, three earned runs were charged in just 1.2 IP.
     
    For Berrios' participation in the WBC, he didn't really do anything too damaging results wise, but the process was something that left much to be desired. While command alluded him at times as it had in 2016, the Twins young phenom simply wasn't stretched out at all. He couldn't ramp up past 40 pitches or so, and almost certainly won't be on track to start full games when the season kicks off. That in and of itself essentially takes him from consideration for a starting role. For the player that maybe needed it most, the dice roll here just leaves everyone feeling empty.
     
    The run that Puerto Rico made back to the title game was a fun one, and totally worth being locked into. For Eddie Rosario, it could vault him into a fast start. Kennys Vargas may find himself on the outside looking in, and Jose Berrios could be left wondering what happened. For everything the WBC isn't results wise, the process still matters, and that's where the Twins may be found scratching their heads.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into spring training, the Minnesota Twins had no less than three of the five starting rotation spots claimed. Ervin Santana was a lock, Kyle Gibson wasn't going anywhere, and Phil Hughes was expected to be healthy enough to claim his role. With two openings left, Hector Santiago was presumably given another one, That left just one spot and a lot of competition for the Twins down in Fort Myers.
     
    My expectation from the onset is that Trevor May would be given every opportunity to move back into the starting rotation. Thus far, that looks to be the plan of action that Minnesota has employed as well. May has started games as opposed to coming in second, and has been included among the group of five previously mentioned. However, as he transitions his way back from the bullpen, there could continue to be some growing pains.
     
    As a starter, May's velocity will likely dip some from where he was at a year ago, and his strikeout numbers shouldn't be nearly as high. He looked like a natural fit in the role initially, and in time, the rotation seems like the best fit. What's up for debate is whether or not Opening Day represents that correct timing.
     
    If it's not Trevor May, there's more than a handful of possible candidates. It would be great if Jose Berrios was dominant this spring and ran away with the role, but it appears his command is still coming into form. Veteran Ryan Vogelsong was brought in as a likely bridge guy, and there's not much reason to block prospects by sending him to Rochester. Could Rule 5 pick Justin Haley get some run in the rotation? Even former Texas Rangers starter Nick Tepesch figures to make things interesting. Of all the possible outcomes though, it may be the guy that Minnesota nabbed for Eduardo Nunez from the San Francisco Giants.
    Enter Adalberto Mejia.
     
    Mejia was Baseball Prospectus' 86th prospect prior to the 2015 season. He has top 100 prospect notoriety from a couple of other outlets as well. The 6'3" hurler would give the Twins flexibility with a second lefty in the rotation, and he should be viewed as having a relatively safe floor. Although he doesn't necessarily possess the ceiling of prospects like Jose Berrios, Stephen Gonsalves, or even Fernando Romero, as a 5th starter, there's reason to be excited.
     
    In 2016, Mejia posted a 3.00 ERA between Double and Triple-A in the Giants and Twins organizations. He owned a respectable 8.6 K/9 while issuing just 2.0 free passes per nine innings. For the most part, Mejia has kept the ball in the yard, and his 132 innings a season ago represent a sizeable workload.
     
    With just over two innings of big league experience under his belt, you can't draw anything from Mejia's exposure with Minnesota a season ago. His fastball sits low 90's while he also utilizes a four pitch mix including a slider, curve, and chanegup. There's no reason to think that Mejia would be incredibly out of his element when called upon to pitch at the highest level.
     
    Thus far this spring, and it's early, Mejia has shown well. He's done nothing to set himself back, and he's taken advantage of the opportunities presented to him. It's going to take some combination of May faltering to bump Mejia up the ladder, but it's far from being out of the question. If it's Mejia that the Twins give the ball to when the 5th turn comes around, buckle in and enjoy the ride.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Many have argued over the years that the amount of games played in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues could be drastically reduced. While teams need to gear up for their upcoming schedules, a month long exhibition fest may be too long. What's always worth remembering though, is that the process is more telling than the results.
     
    It's pretty easy to understand that the record the Minnesota Twins, or any other team for that matter, put forth over the next month doesn't hold much weight. What's harder to wrap your head around is the production doesn't carry much weight either. Whether home runs are being sent over the wall on a consistent basis, or strikeouts are being piled up, the results are always going to be looked at through the microscope of the process.
     
    Early on in spring training, we've been reminded of this thanks to Byungho Park. The Korean slugger has two homers to his credit already, and has been the Twins star through the first handful of games. He's also not on the 40 man roster, and is being forced to prove why he's more deserving of an Opening Day roster spot than Kennys Vargas. Whether or not he continues to provide #ParkBang highlights or not, the questions will be in regards to his strikeout rate, and how well Vargas is playing.
     
    The reality is that spring production can far too often be an outlier. While I have continued to conduct the Park hype train, suggesting his 2016 was a mirage due in large part to injury, his uphill climb is a massive one. Trying to figure out how the narrative plays out when the dust settles simply from a production standpoint is a fool's errand. Should we get to the end of March with Park continuing to put together complete at bats, and Vargas finds himself struggling, we may have more to look at.
     
    Also worth noting is that spring training isn't simply process oriented for just the players, but the manager as well. It is here that Paul Molitor needs to begin to put his best foot forward in a season in which he could be managing for his career. Far too often a year ago, his lineups lacked any evidence based backing, and he often times appeared in over his head during in-game situations.
     
    Through just the first few games, Molitor has played Leonardo Reginatto in LF, despite being a career infielder (an outfield blunder ensued). He has used Daniel Palka in LF with Robbie Grossman in RF despite the natural spots for both being the opposite. He's even used top prospect Nick Gordon as a 2B, despite him playing just two professional games there, and Gordon ended up looking out of position communicating on a short blooper to right.
     
    While it's fair to understand that spring training is about getting players repetitions in games, it's also integral that they happen in logical scenarios. Playing guys out of position simply to get them in, or worse, because you don't know any better, does no one any good. If there's something that Molitor needs to take drastic strides forward from 2016 in, it's understanding the strengths of his team, and relating better to the youth that should be the lifeblood of this organization.
     
    Spring training is still in its infancy at this point, and with multiple weeks of action left, the club is going to move towards a more well oiled machine. Players, such as Byungho Park, will need to make their process match up consistently with the results. The manager will have to do the same.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    When it comes to baseball cards, Topps remains the gold standard. With the 2017 Series 1 collection already released, Topps is hard at work readying plenty of new offerings to baseball fans throughout the upcoming season. The Topps Now program was a great addition to the card collecting scene a season ago, and what's in store for the season ahead should continue to be plenty exciting.
     
    Earlier this offseason, Topps sent out thank you cards to customers that purchased Topps Now product a season ago. While it was a nice touch in and of itself, maybe the most exciting bit was that they would be unveiling "Road to Opening Day" sets. Players will be revealed for each team throughout spring training, and the set itself comes with some added perks.
     
    Direct from Topps' website, here's some information on the Minnesota Twins Road to Opening Day set:
     
     
    New to this year’s edition of Topps Now MLB are Road To Opening Day Team Sets for all 30 teams! As a purchaser of this set, you will have the chance to win Topps Now bonus cards, which are directly dependent upon the success of the 2017 Twins! Below is a list of player/team milestones that will trigger your exclusive bonus card(s) over the course of the 2017 season…
    Twins place first in division at MLB All-Star Break
    Twins pitcher tosses no-hitter or perfect game at any point in regular or postseason
    Twins hitter hits for cycle at any point in regular or postseason
    Although the Twins have yet to have a player revealed, the set will be worth watching all the way up until April 4th, at which point the sale ends and the set is printed and shipped. The 15 card set will cost $49.99 and offer fans, as noted above, a chance at bonus exclusive cards throughout the 2017 campaign.

    As a reader of Off The Baggy, you have the exciting opportunity to win one of these exclusive Topps Now Minnesota Twins Opening Day sets. Topps will be providing a giveaway that I'll announce rules and entry specifications for at a later date. Should you end up not winning, or want to guarantee your set, you can purchase them directly from Topps here.
     
    Finally, throughout the season as Twins players generate Topps Now cards through spectacular moments, you can count on Off The Baggy to bring you the news first. Working directly with Topps, Off The Baggy will have information on the upcoming card and where you can make a purchase. For all your future baseball card needs, a direct link to the Topps website has been added to the right side of the Off The Baggy page.
     
    There should be plenty of excitement for the Twins in a turnaround 2017 season, and Topps will be there to commemorate it all.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    With the offseason officially behind us, and the first pitches of Spring Training already having been thrown, the Twins will kick off their slate of games down in Fort Myers. As the club embarks on a turnaround in 2017, there's plenty of things to keep an eye on in the first year of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine being at the helm.
     
    Although the front office isn't visible on the field of play, their decisions should be apparent to those that have become accustomed to how things used to run. For Molitor, he'll have some decisions that are put in front of him requiring better execution and results from the 103 losses suffered a season ago.
     
    Over the course of the next month or so though, there's a handful of key situations worth monitoring.
     
    The Battle To Hit
     
    This offseason, Byungho Park was DFA'd and had to pass through waivers. He went unclaimed and was outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. Still invited to big league camp, he's battling with Kennys Vargas for the designated hitter role, and he's got a massive hill to climb. Vargas is going to be given every opportunity to head north, and Park is no longer on the 40 man roster.
     
    I'd be shocked if Park doesn't get some run at the big league level this season, and I expect him to have a strong second season in the big leagues. Vargas has a lot of supporters, and given his numbers, it seems a bit over-zealous to me. Regardless, Minnesota needs to get production out of the DH spot, and the responsibility will fall on one of these two.
     
    Rounding Out the Rotation
     
    Four of the five starting pitchers seem to be locked in at this point. Ervin Santana is going to get the ball on Opening Day, while some order of Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, and Hector Santiago follow him. From there, it's a toss up between the likes of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, Adalberto Mejia, and maybe even Justin Haley. While Minnesota was the worst pitching team last season, they have no shortage of options in 2017.
     
    Going north, I'd expect May to get the nod. He's going to make the club, and given his injury issues due to bullpen usage, I can't see any reason not to give him another crack at starting. Berrios has nothing to prove at the Triple-A level, but giving an arbitration deal to Hector Santiago took up a rotation spot with a questionable ceiling. I'd love to see Duffey transition to the pen, and outside of Mejia, the only other name I'm really intrigued by is Haley.
     
    Playing Out The Pen
     
    With the bullpen needing a boost, the Twins also have a large contingent of relief options. Only Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly should be considered locks at this point. Glen Perkins probably isn't a good bet to count on, and the other five arms could come from a group of about 10-12 players.
     
    This season, the Twins need more strikeout pitchers and a better usage plan to utilize pitchers strengths. Creating a group with higher ceilings in general is a good look, and Minnesota should be well positioned to do that.
     
    Learning The Ropes
     
    The left side of the infield could be a disaster, or it may end up being overblown speculation. Either way, we know Jorge Polanco wasn't good at all a season ago when playing shortstop. There's always been concerns about him sticking there, and we need proof that he and Brian Dozier can coexist. Next to him, Miguel Sano will be attempting to prove he can handle the hot corner. A big boy that's already been bumped from two positions in his professional career, a full time DH role would be unfortunate.
     
    There's glove first options for the Twins that can take over, but the reality is that Molitor's lineup is best when both of these two are in it. They need to provide defensive value along with bringing their bat to the park.
     
    A Surprise On The 25
     
    Down in Fort Myers this year, the Twins have a few bigger name non-roster guys. Both from within the organization, and joining it for the first time, will any of them make a surprise jump to the 25 man? Can Park work his way back? Does Vogelsong or Tepesch have value? Where does Drew Stubbs fit?
     
    Over the course of the spring slate, the Twins will have to sort out who they want to protect, and who may have a future. Carlos Quentin was the lone ranger a season ago, and there's more than a few guys just looking for a chance. I'm not sure any of them can separate themselves far enough, but if there's one thing that's certain, it's that Minnesota could use to improve the bottom of their active roster.
     
    For a team coming off 103 losses, there's no place for this group to go but up. They have significantly more talent than the 2016 record displayed, and there's plenty to keep an eye on over the next month. Buckle up and let's get going.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    With Spring Training now kicking off for the Minnesota Twins in less than 30 days, the roster is going to begin to shape itself for the upcoming season. Paul Molitor's club will be looking to rebound from the worst record in franchise history. What is worth wondering is whether or not any veteran non-roster guys will make the trip north.
     
    In their first season with the organization, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made some solid acquisitions when it comes to guys considered fliers. They have inked a handful of veteran pitchers, they've brought in guys they have worked with previously, and they've handed out lottery tickets to guys that might have some upside. On a Twins team that needs to be fueled by youth though, will any of them claim a 25 man spot?
     
    Here's a few names to keep an eye on down in Fort Myers this spring, and the likelihood that the break the exhibition season with the big league club.
     
    Nick Tepesch 15%
     
    In 2016, Tepesch pitched just 4.0 innings in the majors. He missed all of 2015 after having undergone Thoracic Outlet surgery (the same procedure Phil Hughes is battling back from). Across 116.0 IP at the Triple-A level last season, Tepesch owned a 3.96 ERA along with a 4.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Tepesch isn't a strikeout guy, and he's worked mainly as a starter. For the Twins, he'll need to compete for a final rotation spot and I just don't see it. There's more upside by going with someone such as Justin Haley, Adalberto Mejia, or Jose Berrios.
     
    Ryan Vogelsong 30%
     
    Now 39 years old, Vogelsong is absolutely at the tail end of his big league career. He's posted rising ERAs since his 2.71 ERA as an All Star with the Giants in 2011. A year ago in Pittsburgh, Vogelsong worked as a reliever for the longest duration since his return to the big leagues, and he ended up with a 4.81 ERA. His FIP rested at 5.00 and he issued free passes at a 4.4 BB/9 rate. I don't think any of his peripherals are good, but could see Minnesota giving him a shot as the long man out of the pen. I'd prefer they went with internal options in relief, but I wouldn't rule it out completely.
     
    Chris Gimenez 49%
     
    While Tepesch has ties to Levine through the Rangers, I think Gimenez and his ties to Falvey through the Indians are stronger. Gimenez is essentially a defense only catcher. His career OPS across 289 big league games is a paltry .632. He's consistently thrown out base runners at leave average rates though, and he's serviceable behind the plate. Long term, he doesn't provide much for the Twins, but if they're unsure of either John Ryan Murphy or Mitch Garver, he gets the nod.
     
    Matt Hague 1%
     
    Hague played in Japan last season. Manning the hot corner for Hanshin, he slashed .231/.339/.346 across 31 games. While he flashed power at the minor league level (79 HRs in 8 seasons), he's never homered in a big league game and smashed just two in Japan. He's a warm body and provides organizational depth, but he's not a 25 man roster option.
     
    Ben Paulsen 5%
     
    There's no immediate path to playing time for Paulsen, but he's an intriguing case. He'll likely compete as a bench bat and DH option with both Byungho Park and Kennys Vargas. As a distant third in that scenario, he'll need a really nice spring for the Twins. He got into 39 games for the Rockies last season but posted just a .562 OPS. He is a year removed from 116 games worth of a .787 OPS though, and was highly regarded as a third round pick back in 2009. The deck is stacked against him for sure, but there's a glimmer there.
     
    J.B. Shuck 15%
     
    When the Twins brought in Shuck, I thought it signified the writing being on the wall for Danny Santana. It may not directly correlate, but I think Minnesota wants better defense in the outfield off of the bench. Unfortunately for Shuck, he doesn't represent that either. His career .627 OPS is far from ideal, and while he can play all three outfield spots, it's at an average at best capacity. If the Twins are going with an extra outfielder, I'd hope the give Zach Granite a nod instead. Regardless, Shuck figures to be among the competition for one of the final bench spots with Minnesota.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    It's that time of the offseason again, and with the Minnesota Twins in rebuilding mode to start 2017, plenty of new faces will filter through Target Field this season. For those that don't quite make it to the big league level this year, there is plenty on the farm to be excited about. This week, Seth Stohs, Jeremy Nygaard, and Cody Christie will launch the Twins Prospect Handbook.
     
    The official launch of the 2017 Twins Prospect Handbook will come on Wednesday January 4. As a must read publication each offseason, and a great product to take to TwinsFest for autographs, the Prospect Handbook really can't have a fair price put on it. Coming in at under $16 though, it's a steal no matter how you acquire it.
     
    Once again, I have been fortunate enough to contribute to the Handbook, and would like to offer the opportunity to give it away to you for FREE. As was the case last year, the giveaway will be simple, but the winner will definitely have put some significant thought into their entry.
     
    I want to know what you see as the most intriguing storyline of the 2017 Minnesota Twins season is. Do you think a young prospect steps up and makes a name for themselves? Is there an established player that breaks out? Do the Twins surprise in year three under Paul Molitor and make the playoffs? Tell me what your storyline for the upcoming year is in paragraph form. Something right around 300 words should be adequate. I'll feature the top three here at Off The Baggy, with the winner receiving a FREE 2017 Twins Prospect Handbook.
     
    To enter, simply email your storyline to OffTheBaggy@gmail.com no later than Friday, January 13. A winner will be notified shortly thereafter with the top narratives being featured on the site on Monday, January 16.
     
    Best of luck to everyone. Looking forward to seeing some great entries, and you won't want to miss the opportunity for the best book you'll read all offseason.
     
    For more info on the 2017 Twins Prospect Handbook, click here.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    In the midst of the offseason, the snow has flown and Target Field has gone into its winter slumber. With warm thoughts of Spring Training on our minds, surpassing the benchmark of Christmas helps us barrel towards Opening Day 2017. For a Minnesota Twins team coming off of a franchise worst season, what is Santa Claus gifting the club this year?
     
    It's probably pretty hard to categorize whether or not the organization was naughty or nice. I mean, it was anything but a strong year, but maybe the Twins applied for the lovable losers moniker. No matter what designation on the worthiness scale they are given, Santa is a compassionate chap and wants to dole out one gift to the club for 2017.
     
    Sure, it'd be great if the Twins turned out to have their own version of a staff ace. The reality is, the ghost of Clayton Kershaw isn't walking into the clubhouse any time soon. We could also ask St. Nick for a big bopper, but Brian Dozier launched 40 plus homers a year ago and is likely on his way out the door. Heck, going straight to the top and begging for a shiny World Series ring would even be fun, but even in make-believe land, that's a feat too drastic to pull off.
     
    So, what is it that the Twins organization is gifted for 2017? What if I told you the answer is nothing, and they already had everything they needed?
     
    Right now, the best thing to happen to the Twins was an infusion of perspective. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine both bring ideals and principles that have otherwise not been adopted by the organization. They come from outside and haven't been brought up along the same line of thinking as those that have recently failed in their posts ahead of them.
     
    In choosing to revitalize the front office with two new thinkers, Minnesota gives themselves an opportunity that they have passed up in recent years. With a roster that was mainly treading water, the organization can fully commit to a rebuild utilizing pieces they've obtained, and figure out where their true deficiencies lie. At this point, it appears Minnesota has some intriguing talent on the farm, but many of them haven't been positioned well enough to understand how they fit going forward.
     
    At the top, Paul Molitor's club remains a few key areas leveling off away from a much different year. Rather than being league worst in pitching, a jump to somewhere near the middle would make a significant difference. The offense is there, if not consistent, and the pieces to at least show up on a nightly basis remain in tact. Whether or not Molitor remains the most capable leader is still up for debate, but both Falvey and Levine will now have a front row seat in making that decision.
     
    Really what it boils down to is that there's no Golden Ticket for this Twins club. They aren't one piece away from being a serious contender, but they aren't void of assets either. The gift they needed was an individual (or duo in this case) committed to a turnaround. Rather than placing band-aids on bullet holes, it's an opportunity to act, make difficult decisions, and take the long term route towards moving forward.
     
    If free agency and the offseason has been any indication of this gift, it's that the Twins too know they aren't one shiny present away. Enjoy what they have been given, stay the course, and commit to it. Right now Minnesota is making the long play, and given the pieces that can be moved around the blueprint, living in the present with the gift we've been given is something we can all embrace.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    The Rule 5 Draft took place at the conclusion of the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings. As teams selected players from other organizations that must stay on their 25 man roster throughout the duration of the upcoming season, Minnesota continues to reap the rewards of solid Rule 5 Draft success.
     
    In the 2016 version, Minnesota had the first overall pick and selected a pitcher from the Brewers organization, Miguel Diaz. He was sent to the Padres in exchange for Justin Haley, a pitcher from the Red Sox organization that the Los Angeles Angels had selected with their Rule 5 pick. Haley is a tall kid with average stuff that projects as a capable back-end big league starter. He'll join the Twins organization and likely compete for a rotation spot during spring training.
     
    When looking at previous Rule 5 success, Twins fans can easily point to Johan Santana. The club weathered two seasons (when Santana was 21 and 22 years old) in which he posted a 5.9 ERA and just a 6.4 K/9 with a 4.9 BB/9. He then went on to win two Cy Young awards while compiling a 2.92 ERA across the next six seasons. By all measures, Santana is the Gold Standard when it comes to Minnesota Twins Rule 5 Draft Picks.
    There's one that's still paying dividends however.
     
    Ryan Pressly was selected in the Rule 5 Draft out of the Red Sox organization prior to the 2013 Major League Baseball season. He's worked exclusively as a reliever, and posted a 3.55 ERA across 208 MLB innings for the Twins the past four seasons. Last year however was easily Pressly's best in Minnesota.
     
    Healthy and contributing over 75 innings for Paul Molitor's club, Pressly turned in a 3.70 ERA that was backed by a nice 8.0 K/9 and a 2.7 BB/9. He picked up his first career save, and flashed some really strong offerings on the mound. Also in 2016, Pressly turned in his highest average fastball velocity of his career sitting at 95.2 mph. His slider and curveball also saw velocity spikes while he all but abandoned his changeup.
     
    Going into the 2017 season, I'd hope that the Twins give significant run to internal bullpen options. Players like Jake Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Aaron Slegers, and Nick Burdi should all be close to big league debuts. With that much youth in contention for relief opportunities, it will be on veterans such as Pressly to provide a steadying feeling late in games. If the returns of late are any indication, the native Texan should have no problem being up to the task.
     
    As teams around the big leagues have placed an increased importance on relief pitching as a whole, the Twins bullpen has lagged behind. With starters failing to go deep in games, the relievers have generally been asked to do too much. Of the group, and around the big leagues, Pressly doesn't get the praise he deserves and isn't the household name he may soon turn into.
     
    Right now, the jury is out on how good of a Rule 5 selection Justin Haley will be for the Twins. What isn't up for debate is that Ryan Pressly is one of the best Minnesota has ever taken in the draft.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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