Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Ted Schwerzler

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,149

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    After the debacle that was the Minnesota Twins series with the Houston Astros, it was apparent that a lackluster bullpen needed and overhaul. The club had shuffled deck chairs too often this season, and there wasn't much room for error to begin with. In one of the moves that was made, we might be able to get a better understanding for what could be to come in regards to roster construction.
     
    When the dust settled as Houston left town, the Twins bullpen had given up 28 runs (27 earned) on 29 hits in just nine innings. They struck out only three opposing hitters and issued 10 free passes. Any way you cut it, that's an implosion. Jason Wheeler was DFA'd, and Ryan Pressly was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. With two open spots, the Twins needed some revamping.
     
    The brain trust turned to Alex Wimmers, and a surprise, Randy Rosario.
     
    To be fair, Wimmers represents the same deck chair philosophy that I referenced above. Not meant as a shot at him whatsoever, he's a feel good story to be sure, he's just not going to move the needle in a big league pen. Wimmers is a failed starter, and a bust of a former first round pick. He threw 17.1 IP for the Twins in 2016, and posted a 4.15 ERA combined with a 7.3 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. Expecting him to come into the pen and provide much of a boost is probably a stretch.
     
    It's in the second transaction, the promotion of Randy Rosario, that is one of serious intrigue. Rosario was added to the 40 man roster prior to the 2016 season. He's a 23 year old lefty, and can push his fastball into the mid-90s. Over the course of seven minor league seasons, he's worked at least as a part-time starter all but this year. To his name however, he has thrown just 29.2 IP above Single-A, with 23.2 IP of that coming in 2017.
     
    At Double-A Chattanooga this year, Rosario has posted a 1.90 ERA. He's limited damage by walking batters at just a 2.3 BB/9 clip, and he's tallied strikeouts at a 7.6 K/9 rate. Hits have been hard to come by off of him as well, regardless of the batter's handedness, given he's allowed just a .486 OPS to righties and a .490 OPS to lefties. In short, he's among the most promising arms the Twins have had in relief this season.
     
    When Mariana Guzman of Twins Latinos broke the Rosario call up news, it came as a surprise. Sure, he's on the 40 man roster, but for a guy with such limited experience in higher levels of the minors, it could be classified as an aggressive move. Given the pairing with Wimmers however, it's worth speculating if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine gave Molitor one of his guys (Wimmers) and one of their choosing (Rosario).
     
    There was a few reports out of Fort Myers that Molitor had campaigned for Wimmers to make the 25 man roster. He had a nice spring, and Molitor apparently preferred him over Michael Tonkin. Making the move at the same time, it's certainly worth wondering if Falvey and Levine are picking their spots with this group.
     
    It probably could be argued that the expectation for extra arms would include one of Trevor Hildenberger or Alan Busenitz. Both have been very good at Triple-A, and seemingly could provide an upgrade at the big league level. Dipping down to Double-A though, maybe John Curtiss enters the picture sooner rather than later, and there's plenty of big name starters to keep an eye on now. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves could be inserted in the rotation sooner rather than later, and if the Rosario move is any indication, when Falvey and Levine deem they're ready, it won't matter what level they are at.
     
    Coming into 2017, Molitor is under a lame-duck contract. He's being felt out by the front office, and it's much less about the results, than it is the process, that will eventually determine his future. As he continues to champion for certain players, make in game decisions, and interact with his new bosses, his fate going forward will be etched out. For now, that's too far off to be thinking about. What's in front of us though, is a GM that's not unwilling to get help from talent at whatever rung oif the organization it may reside.
     
    Randy Rosario could be just the start, and the move is a linchpin into a narrative that's worth dissecting as the summer draws on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Earlier this month, I wrote about why I believe the Minnesota Twins must trade Ervin Santana. Sure, regardless of his 2017 output, he's not some reinvented pitcher that's going to command a teams top prospects. However, he's more valuable long term to the Twins if the organization can flip him for some solid pieces. What's worth wondering though, is if Minnesota's winning ways have the organization positioned to be buyer's this summer.
     
    Conventional wisdom suggests that the Twins current level of play isn't going to be sustainable, or at least result in a playoff berth. If the club is still in the thick of things this summer though, an argument could be made to buy with an eye on the future. Rather than mortgaging your upcoming window for instant gratification, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could add some pieces to help in 2017 and beyond.
     
    Looking at the current construction of both the 25 and 40 man roster, the biggest deficiency remains on the mound. Minnesota is starved for starting pitching depth, and the bullpen is a pieced together hodgepodge. The Twins could take on some arms, with the intention of retaining them for 2018 and beyond, and feel much better about whatever they must give up.
     
    So, who are some candidates in this scenario? Let's take a look:
     
    Sonny Gray- Oakland Athletics
     
    Gray is a name that I believe the former regime had some interest in. He was pretty awful a season ago, and then he got hurt. Through five turns in the rotation this season however, Gray has been an asset for the Athletics, and has posted the best K/9 (8.5) and BB/9 (2.4) numbers of his career. When right, he can be counted on for 200 innings, and his strikeout numbers would be a lift to a Minnesota rotation void of them. At 27, he's not a free agent until 2020, meaning Minnesota would have to part with some decent pieces. I'm not certain he's a one, or even a two starter, but he'd help in Minnesota to be sure.
     
    Matt Shoemaker- Los Angeles Angels
     
    There's little denying that Los Angeles may have the worst farm system in all of baseball, and they don't have much at the big league level either. The Angels should be trying to pair Mike Trout with talent in his prime, and dealing a 30 year old like Shoemaker could help. He's not a top tier starter by any means, but a career 3.82 ERA would fit for the Twins. He's a middle-of-the-road strikeout guy (Much like Gray), and he doesn't issue many free passes (2.1 career BB/9). He's 30 now, and isn't a free agent until 2021. Again, Minnesota would need to return assets, but that's a controllable pitcher you'd be happy with.
     
    Ivan Nova- Pittsburgh Pirates
     
    This is a tricky situation, as I'm not really sure what to believe Nova is. He's been nothing short of spectacular since arriving in Pittsburgh, but this season, he hasn't struck anyone (4.8 K/9) out and has limited damage by not walking anyone (0.6 BB/9). He's on an incredibly affordable deal making just $26m through 2019. The Pirates may be inclined to deal Gerrit Cole, who has significantly more upside, but he's going to command quite a haul. If Nova could be had for a modest price, he's a middle-of-the-rotation option that the Twins could key in on.
     
    Yu Darvish- Texas Rangers
     
    The lone rental of this foursome, Darvish is a name I think makes a lot of sense for Minnesota, the question is when. If the Twins deal during the season, they'd need the Rangers to fall back out of contention. There's obviously history there with Thad Levine, and Darvish being a free agent in 2018, he's a name I hope Minnesota seriously pursues. Darvish is a true ace, and the Twins have money to spend this offseason. He's a strikeout machine, and he's responded well (3.23 ERA 10.8 K/9 3.2 BB/9) since undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing 2015. Darvish would be a great feature atop the Twins rotation, and at just 30 years old, he's a guy they could ink to one more, big, long-term deal.
     
    I'm still not convinced, even with a winning record, that the Twins should be looking at adding significant pieces in season. Nova is really the only name mentioned above that shouldn't command at least one strong prospect. However, if Minnesota is going to make the move with a long term focus, there's reasons to argue for it. Over the winter, there's plenty of different names that could be on the Twins radar. The club could also consider someone like the Giants Johnny Cueto, depending upon how he chooses to navigate his contract and opt out scenario.
     
    At the end of the day, no winning in 2017 should deter the focus from 2018 being a true window. This club has money to spend, and bringing in a couple of top tier arms is something that could set them over the top. Dealing for them hurts the farm, but if you bring in somewhat of a sure thing that will help you down the road and make the end of the season interesting, so be it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    On May 29, the Minnesota Twins suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in club history. Leading 8-2 in the top of the 8th inning, the bullpen went on to allow 14 runs en route to a 16-8 defeat. At the center of the debacle was manager Paul Molitor's decision making, but there was no one around to hold him accountable.
     
    The day following the meltdown, Star Tribune columnist Chip Scoggins was there. He called the game as it was, and lit Molitor up. Despite Minnesota bringing in Jason Wheeler, who was scheduled to pitch that day for Triple-A Rochester, Molitor went to a taxed bullpen and was given results that you may expect. Scoggins isn't a beat reporter, and he didn't need access to call the situation like it was. There's no way around it, Paul Molitor came up short.
     
    It's been rehashed plenty, but for descriptive purposes, Molitor chose to go to Ryan Pressly with his six run lead. Pressly had thrown 51 pitches encompassing three of the clubs last four games. He was a part of a 15 inning marathon the day prior as well. He blew up for five runs. Craig Breslow and Matt Belisle then each allowed another three runs of their own despite also both participating in the marathon game a day prior. Wheeler, the healthy and scheduled arm, was never turned to, and heads were scratched.
     
    In the days since, narratives from those on the Twins beat have been nothing short of excuses. There's been talk that Wheeler was nothing more than blowout insurance. Plenty have suggested that big league relievers should be able to get six outs, regardless of being tired. The general gist has been in defense of Molitor, a man that's made bullpen mismanagement the expectation rather than the exception. It has has added up to pose the question: Where does the beat actually fall short?
     
    Newspaper outlets and online media alike have their guys that go into the clubhous and bring an extended version of access to the fans. While that's a great thing on the surface, there's a pretty clear conflict of interest at play as well. Despite Molitor being worthy of criticism and questioning, there was none to be found. We were given excuses and boiler plate remarks, and virtually the same information was conveyed no matter where you turn to for your daily reading. Accountability falls by the wayside, because the limits of the job come into play.
     
    How can a beat writer go into the clubhouse and ask Paul Molitor why he stumbled on his bullpen usage, didn't turn to the right guy, and left his team out to dry? That same writer is going to have 50 something more games in which they are required to get quotes and interact for the purpose of their job. In ticking off a player or coach, that job becomes inherently more difficult to complete I'd imagine. Instead of being able to ask questions that produce real answers, the beat filters out the same boiler plate quotes across any number of writer to any number of outlets. We aren't given much in the way of insight, and there isn't any real thought provoked when prodding for answers.
     
    Interestingly enough, the Star Tribune was at it again in another form just a day later. Patrick Reusse, another columnist and a guy not on the beat, called out Derek Falvey for simply shuffling deck chairs in the bullpen. Despite having arms with some sort of upside, the Twins have turned to the likes of Drew Rucinski, Buddy Boshers, and even Nick Tepesch. Reusse notes names such as Hildenberger, Curtiss, Busenitz, and Melotakis as options. These are players that could have a future in the Minnesota pen, but they've been spurned in favor of putting band-aids on bullet wounds.
     
    In this scenario, Reusse takes aim at a bullpen that needed help going into the season, and one that has done less with more thus far. There hasn't been a slew of questions from those on the beat regarding why the Twins are playing with half the deck, or what those arms need to do to be in consideration. It's relatively clear to those watching the game closely that there's multiple options available, but right now, the Twins haven't called upon them. To question the strategy however, once again would open a beat reporter to scrutiny that could in turn hurt their job positioning.
     
    At the end of the day, I think there's a need and a place for beat reporters in sports. They disperse information that is integral for the club to get out, and they are they immediately to garner reaction following competition. The unfortunate side of it is that there's a handful of journalists spouting the same quotes that have answers telling us little, and there's no one there to ask the questions needing to be addressed. Outside of an abrasive relationship with those you cover, there's probably not much to be done in order to get around this reality. There's no doubt though that a fresh perspective or a well appointed prodding question, no matter how it's received, is a breath of fresh air at times.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    There's no getting around how bad Byron Buxton was to start off the 2017 Major League Baseball season. Through his first 15 games, he was batting under .100 and owns a 24/2 strikeout to walk ratio. If there was a doomsday scenario, this was it. Given the setback that cause, it's overshadowed just how good he's been of late though, and it's probably better than you'd think.
     
    Since April 21, Buxton has played in 25 games for the Twins. He has had 86 plate appearances and compiled 73 at bats. They've come together to produce a .260/.365/.384 slash line, complete with four extra base hits, and a 23/12 K/BB ratio. For a prospect with otherworldly expectations, that may not seem glamorous, but it is, and he's not done yet.
     
    Despite having the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I'm not sure Buxton's on base skills will ever translate to hitting out of that lineup position. He's going to hit for more power than his wiry frame may suggest, and batting out of the three hole, as Paul Molitor started him at in 2017, may be a more realistic long-term prognosis. That gives us reason to believe the slugging numbers should go up, further bolstering his OPS production.
     
    While scuffling early on, Buxton had a chase rate of 38.3% and swung through 201.% of pitches. Guessing and rolling over plenty, Buxton made hard contact just 24% of the time through his first 15 games. Since making adjustments over the last 25 games, the Twins centerfielder has dropped the chase rate to 27.8% while swinging through just 13.5% of pitches. The hard contact rate has actually slipped some (21.6%), but Buxton's BABIP is likely always going to be more reflective of his speed than his exit velocity.
     
    You've been handed a few numbers to suggest why Buxton isn't done climbing the ladder yet, but now, it's important to contextualize where he is currently. The question as to what Minnesota needs from him offensively to continue to rely solely on defense, has come up more than a few times. If this latest sample size is any indication, the answer is really nothing. As the numbers indicate right now, this current level of production, has Buxton not only playing at a Gold Glove defensive caliber, but among the best outfielders in the big leagues from an all around standpoint.
     
    Looking at his last 25 games, Buxton has compiled a .748 OPS. On the year, he has also contributed six DRS (defensive runs saved), which by the way, is second among MLB center fielders (thanks to the Rays having a good one in Kevin Kiermaier). Looking at those numbers, we are able to come up with a pretty focused group of big leaguers.
     
    Among qualified hitters, there's just 41 outfielders in baseball with an OPS north of .750. There's also just eight outfielders with a DRS of six or more to this point. Combining those two pools, we see a crossover of just three players (outside of Buxton) that have both a .750+ OPS and have been worth at least six DRS in 2017. There names: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, and Mookie Betts. That's a trio of players that includes a Rookie of the Year front runner, a solid 10 year vet and one time All Star, and a one time All Star that happened to be last year's runner up in the MVP voting. Any way you cut it, that's a pretty strong group for Buxton to be included in.
     
    Now, as with the 15 games before, a 25 game sample size is hardly anything to begin writing checks off of. What's noteworthy however, is it doesn't just appear to be a hot streak for Buxton, he's made fundamental changes. Having worked with James Rowson and heard from a few others, Buxton's swing is a tighter, more well oiled machine right now. He's got the confidence in the box to let the bat play, and that the ball will carry thanks to the process he's taken prior to contact.
     
    At just 23 years old, Buxton also remains the youngest of that group of aforementioned dual threat talents. His defense is going to remain at an elite level for years to come, and the expectation that the offensive water level raises is a pretty solid one. Each jump the bat makes, will only elevate Buxton as a whole, and even at this early stage, it's easy to see why his ceiling is so high, and excitement level so real.
     
    It's still early for him, but even while still coming into his own, Byron Buxton is among the best dual threat outfielders in all of major league baseball. Imagine what happens as his game continues to evolve.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    After being recalled following a two-start stint at Triple-A, Kyle Gibson was back in the Twins rotation. Against the Orioles on May 22, Gibson surrendered six earned runs on seven hits while walking four and striking out five. He got the win (pitcher wins are stupid), but there was a clear picture of a pitcher in over his head. For now, he'll remain in the rotation, but during the game, it was worth wondering what would happen next for Minnesota?
     
    In an ideal world, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge are all ready to compete at a significant level. That reality isn't one we're living in though. All three are at Double-A, and none are ready to make the jump to Triple-A or the big leagues any time soon. There's still a long term gameplan there, but expecting them to help Minnesota before late summer at the earliest is a fool's errand.
     
    That leads us to upstate New York, and deciding what is available in Rochester. We have seen Nick Tepesch once this season. He lasted just 1.2 IP and while six of the seven runs he surrendered were unearned, it was an uninspiring performance unlikely to challenge big league hitters. If Kyle Gibson isn't the guy, and it's beginning to look like he may need more time figuring it out on the farm, then who is?
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would likely be tasked with deciding between Aaron Slegers, David Hurlbut, and Jason Wheeler at Rochester. None of them are 40 man players, and of the trio, Slegers is arguably pitching the best this season. While Wheeler has been in big spots previously, and pitched well in 2016, he hasn't gotten off to a great start this season.
     
    Slegers was a 5th round pick back in 2013 out of the University of Indiana. He's now 24 years old, and a relative non-prospect. What he's done however, is put forth a consistent track record at every stop through the Minnesota farm system. His professional ERA stands at 3.57 across 494.2 IP. In 2017, he's totaled a 4.25 ERA over 42.1 IP and rarely issues walks (1.9 BB/9). He's never going to be a high velocity guy, and his career 6.5 K/9 is probably lofty at the next level. While the peripherals aren't flashy, there's reason to believe he's capable.
     
    Thus far, the Twins have used seven starters, and there's a strong likelihood that number trends towards 10 by the time the dust settles. There's nothing more coveted in the game of baseball than starting pitcher, and even moreso, that of the quality variety. It's not fair to assume that every arm called up to the big league rotation is going to be an impact prospect, but if there's a place the Twins organization is starved, it's there.
     
    At multiple points this season, the question as to whether or not Minnesota should deal Ervin Santana has come up. If there's something that highlights the necessity, it could be this. Should the Twins be presented with an offer that returns a solid pitching prospect or two, close to big league ready, there's a lot of appeal there. Right now, this team is much more exciting than many would have imagined, but there's no staying power in the starting pitching.
     
    Over the winter, it makes a lot of sense for the Twins to supplement their offensive youth with an impact starter. There's a few names out there that make sense, and the club has money to spend. If the organization can roll out a rotation that includes a big name or two, along with Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia being internal options, they'll be well positioned a year from now.
     
    It may have to be Aaron Slegers in the short term, and if Kyle Gibson continues to struggle, there's no reason not to give him a shot. Pinning your hopes to that level of prospect for the future though, doesn't make a lot of sense. The Twins have some top prospect arms in the system, but they'll need a safety net regardless, and having more impact arms is never going to be a bad thing.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Through their first 41 games, Miguel Sano has been nothing short of a monster for the Minnesota Twins. He's been every bit the offensive stalwart he was expected to be, and he's taken it to a whole new level. Right now, he's been the most impressive player on the club, and in terms of WAR, Fangraphs quantifies him as the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout. The question is, how much of it is a mirage?
     
    There's a couple of different scenarios at play with it comes to Sano. He's easily defined as a three true outcomes player (Strikeout, Walk, or Home Run). Sano also is flirting with sustainability when it comes to BABIP (Batting average on balls in play...note: HRs are excluded). So, when looking at those two scenarios, the question becomes how much should we believe in his current .319/.439/.638 slash line?
     
    In answering that question, we can present the notion that it's both a mirage and sustainable at the same time. When the dust settles in 2017, I think it'd be foolish to expect Miguel Sano to hit above .300, he simply strikes out far too often for that to happen. However, he's not a tradition three true outcomes batter in that he absolutely crushes the baseball.
     
    Let's look at what the numbers tell us. 34.5% of the time in 2017, Miguel Sano is striking out. That is the 5th worst percentage in the big leagues, and behind a group that includes Keon Broxton, Joey Gallo, Chris Davis, and Byron Buxton. On the flip side, Sano walks a ridiculous 17.5% of the time, good enough for third best in the big leagues. In generating free passes, he is able to even out, and sustain his on base percentage, even before looking at what happens when he makes contact.
    It's in that contact that things get interesting as well. As of May 23, Sano has generated 82 batted ball events, or balls in play. 43 of those have been hit at 98 mph or more. His 98.2 mph average exit velocity leads the big leagues, and is nearly 4 mph above the Yankees Aaron Judge. Breaking down the 43 balls put in play above 98 mph, Sano has generated 32 hits and barreled 20 balls (5th most in MLB). To summarize, and as I wrote on May 1, Miguel Sano is crushing the ball.
     
    So, is it a problem that Sano strikes out in nearly one third of his plate appearances? Sure, it's not ideal. Is it likely that the Twins 3rd basemen is going to sustain a .439 BABIP and continue to bat above .300? No, probably not. What is with noting however, is that the results are a by-product of an approach that has Sano swinging with all he has in virtually every plate appearance.
    Production for Sano is a result of consistent hard contact. He has generated hard contact 52.4% of the time (1st in MLB) while making soft contact just 3.7% of the time (lowest in MLB by nearly 5%). Those numbers suggest that while his BABIP will flatten out (and his average will follow suit) the decline will not nearly be as stark as it would be in a different scenario. Realistically, the decline for Sano will come more from a lack of swing power on his own accord, as opposed to the numbers normalizing from an inflated level.
     
    Just two months into the season, it's hard to suggest that Miguel Sano is going to be consistently able to swing as hard in September as he is right now. His legs, torso, and upper body will undoubtedly go through wear and tear as the season goes on and it'll be worth monitoring to see if his swing loses oomph because of it. Should things stay consistent though, Miguel Sano is going to consistently experience inflated BABIP numbers, and will remain a non-traditional three true outcomes player because of the quality of the balls being put in play.
     
    Until Sano is consistently fooled on pitches, or can no longer catch up to heat, he's going to get the upper hand on opposing pitchers every time the ball hits his bat. The results are there to prove that, and while they'll level off some, we aren't watching Adam Dunn even in his prime here.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Selected 5th overall by the Minnesota Twins in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, Nick Gordon was immediately among the organizations best prospects. With a strong family pedigree, and plenty of talent on his own, the expectations were sky high for the high school shortstop. Now, fast forward four seasons, and he's proving himself at Double-A with the Chattanooga Lookouts.
     
    In 2016, Gordon got his first taste of High-A ball. Spending the whole season in Fort Myers, after making a compelling case to end 2015 there, Gordon slashed a solid .291/.335/.386. Power wasn't ever really expected to be a big part of his game, but his average hovered around .300 for the bulk of the summer, and his on base skills were solid. If there was a knock on him a year ago, it was the poor defensive showing, and a less than ideal baserunning ability.
     
    While Gordon doesn't possess the straight-line speed of his brother Dee, he's a burner in his own right. However, he was caught stealing 13 times for the Miracle, swiping just 19 successful bases. Reading pitchers, getting jumps, and picking his spots was something he'd definitely need to hone in on.
     
    Then, touted as a glove first prospect when drafted, Gordon took a pretty big step back in the field. Errors are far from the be-all-end-all when evaluating defensive prowess, but Gordon racked them up in bunches. After 18 in Cedar Rapids the year prior (all at SS), he tallied 26 in 2016 (24 at SS). They were split between throwing and fielding, but for a guy that was seen as so fluid at the position, it wasn't a welcomed addition to his game.
     
    Coming into the 2017 season, Gordon had fans across the national landscape. He was ranked among the top 50 prospects in the country by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus. A handful of publications tabbed him as the Twins top prospect, and now at 21, it was somewhat expected that the youngster was beginning to grow into his body.
     
    Through the first 36 games at the Double-A level, Gordon has done nothing but impress. He's slashing a robust .322/.383/.507. While power likely won't ever show up in a considerable amount, the's tallied 16 extra base hits, three of which have left the yard. Gordon hasn't used much of his speed in the running game, as he's stolen just one base while being caught twice, but it's played to his favor in the form of doubles (8) and triples (5).
     
    As a non-roster invitee to spring training, Gordon saw time with the Twins in a handful of big league games. Paul Molitor played him in both spots up the middle, giving him more time at second base than I would have preferred to see. Thus far in 2017, Gordon has started 20 games at short, and 14 at second for the lookouts. Right now, it seems the organization isn't sure where he'll stick, and they also have some decisions to make at the upper levels. He's fared ok defensively, chalking up eight errors across those 34 games (3 at 2B, 5 at SS).
     
    Looking at a realistic timeline on Gordon, who again is just 21 years old, 2018 seems to be the year to circle. He's over three years younger than the competition at the current level, and while he could push for a late season promotion to Triple-A, the Twins could decide to keep the same path and have him spend the year in Tennessee. If that's the way they go, a mid-summer or early-fall callup could be in the cards a year from now.
     
    Knowing where the Twins stand roster wise, that leaves some questions to be answered on the 25 man roster. Brian Dozier is signed through the 2018 season, at which point he will hit free agency (Minnesota only bought out his arbitration years). If he isn't traded, and that probably hinges on the direction of the team, the middle of the infield would appear occupied. Gordon isn't the sure-thing shortstop he was once touted as, but he's probably a better bet there than Jorge Polanco.
     
    No matter how you cut it, Nick Gordon could force the Twins into a situation where they have three mouths to feed, and only two positions to hand out. As a rotational guy ending the 2018 season on the big league roster, Gordon could help to ease the transition for Minnesota if Brian Dozier is cast off prior to 2019. Figuring out how the pieces fit is getting ahead of ourselves for the most part at this point anyways however.
     
    What's worth taking note of in the here and now, is that Nick Gordon is absolutely emerging as a strong two way talent for the Twins. His bat has become a weapon, and he's displaying offensive prowess beyond his years. As he continues to compete through the Double-A season this year, and sets his sights on whatever is next, the Twins seem to have a very solid player on the way.
     
    Having gone from big name, to uncertain top 100 guy, to a prospect that could find himself in the top 25 a year from now, Gordon continues to battle. For all the picks that haven't worked out in recent years, it appears the son of Flash is absolutely cut from a different cloth.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins biggest question mark was exactly how their pitching staff would respond. After being at the bottom of the big leagues a year prior, Minnesota needed a turnaround to return to competitiveness. They've seen a good enough start through the first 30 games or so, but staving of regression will be best accomplished by continuing to raise the water level.
     
    As things stand on May 16, the Twins own the 9th best starting ERA in MLB. Ervin Santana has been great, Hector Santiago has been surprising, and Phil Hughes has been serviceable. Jose Berrios is here now, and the 5th starter will remain in flux until someone separates themselves from the pack. The bullpen has been a bit of a different story however.
     
    Through their first 120 innings pitches, Minnesota checks in with the 23rd best relief ERA in MLB (4.73). The 7.43 K/9 ranks 28th out of 30 big league teams and the 3.75 BB/9 checks out in the middle of the pack. Largely unaddressed this offseason (Matt Belisle being the only signing of note), the pen remained a major question mark. While it hasn't yet gone off the rails, the goal would be to address things before it gets to that point.
     
    Looking at what's out there, you can see some definite pieces. Brandon Kintzler is a solid reliever, even if he toes the questionable line when it comes to working as a closer. Taylor Rogers fits, and Tyler Duffey looks like a real weapon. I still believe Ryan Pressly is more than his funk suggests, and Justin Haley being carried makes sense. While that leaves both Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow, you have to wonder if Minnesota isn't in a position to push for more on their own.
     
    Triple-A Rochester has some intriguing arms worthy of a shot. Adding Drew Rucinski to the 40 man roster for a brief call up comes as confusing, if only because there's other options. Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Aaron Slegers, and even Jason Wheeler could all use a look. If we're really trying to push the envelop though, it's at Double-A where the Twins greatest assets lie.
     
    Both Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have been lights out to start 2017. Melotakis owns a 1.17 ERA across 15.1 IP. He has compiled a 7.0 K/9 while offering free passes at a rate of 2.3 BB/9. The former 2nd round pick has been at Double-A since 2014, albeit missing the 2015 season. He's compiled just under 50.0 IP across the last two years and he's shown an ability to strike batters out, while reducing the walks in 2017.
     
    Another 2nd round pick, Burdi has come out guns blazing this season as well. He can push his fastball into triple digits, and seeing him healthy after throwing just three innings last year is a major plus. Across 13.2 IP this season, he's struck out 11.9 per nine innings, and he's walking batters at a very strong 2.6 BB/9. While command has always been Burdi's shortcoming, it's something he seems to have honed in this campaign.
     
    I have no idea whether or not the Twins would promote either arm from Double-A, but I would lean towards them not doing so. Both have velocity, and wanting to see them pitch, more than just throw, at the next level might be worthwhile for a stop in Triple-A. Neither guy is going to be able to rely solely on speed at the big league level, and making sure they can get big league hitters out is a must.
    Regardless of how they get to the Target Field bullpen, both Melotakis and Burdi have an argument to be there by early summer at the latest. I'd expect at least a brief stop for both in Triple-A, but guys like Breslow or even Adam Wilk, shouldn't stand in their way for a big league opportunity. Unlike a starting prospect, I'd argue that relievers don't necessarily need the long stay at the highest level of the farm. Give them a taste and move them on. J.T. Chargois put forth just 12.1 IP in AAA after 11.2 IP at AA prior to his promotion last year. A similar path could be had for both of these guys.
     
    When they arrive, there's little reason to suggest it wouldn't be an immediate boost to the bullpen. Throw in a healthy J.T. Chargois or Jake Reed, and maybe a flier on one of those other names, and Minnesota will have reworked their relief corps from within.
     
    Right now, there's some question marks as to how it will come together, and what guys can get healthy, but what Minnesota doesn't have in starting options, they have in relief. Both Burdi and Melotakis can lead the charge, and the dice will fall from there as they may.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins hold the number one overall pick in the upcoming Major League Baseball amateur draft. That much has been true since the conclusion of the 2016 season. What remains up in the air, is exactly who will hear their name called first on June 12. While we've heard about high school phenom Hunter Greene, and Louisville star Brendan McKay, it could be Vandy pitcher Kyle Wright that was the correct choice all along.
     
    Much has been made about both Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay in the months leading up to the draft. Greene has a fastball that has topped out at triple digits, and he can play a solid shortstop as well. McKay may be the best college pitcher, as well as hitter, and a team has to decide what way to develop him. Both have some serious concerns though.
     
    The flame out rate for high school arms is incredible, and while Greene has the velocity, the development arc for his body, let alone his repertoire, is an immense uphill battle. For McKay, the dominance on the mound comes more in the form of pitchability, as he doesn't have lightning stuff. He's also great at the plate, but suggesting either player with the notion that they have two-way abilities is a fool's errand. Reality says that both will be selected as pitchers, and banking on what they can do at that plate is a fall back option you shouldn't even be considering with a pick that high.
     
    If Greene has a ceiling that's at the top of this class, he has a floor that is somewhere below the basement. McKay is a nice choice and could be a very solid pro, but he's probably never going to justify being tabbed at one overall. If you want to grab someone that splits things down the middle, Vanderbilt's Kyle Wright may absolutely be the Twins best bet.
     
    Wright, a Junior at Vanderbilt from Huntsville, Alabama, had a tough start to his 2017 season. He's since been on a tear, giving up just 12 hits, five earned runs, and a 51/7 K/BB ratio over his last five starts (39.2 IP). On the season, Wright owns a 3.06 ERA across 13 starts (82.1 IP) and owns a 93/26 K/BB ratio. Opposing hitters are batting just .206 off of him, and he's been the premier arm for one of the best baseball programs in the country.
     
    Where McKay throws low 90s on the mound, Wright can sit 95-97 mph with good secondary pitches as well. He has a strong breaking ball and does compliment his fastball with a serviceable changeup. At this point, scouts seem to agree that Wright would have no less than three capable pitches at the next level, a must if he's going to continue as a starter.
     
    Regardless of what decision any team makes during the MLB draft, a lot of expectations are based upon projections becoming reality. If you have to live with that notion, finding a good mix of ceiling, floor, and belief is a must. Whereas Hunter Greene has a very high probability of flaming out, and Brendan McKay has a low probability of being something extraordinary, Wright could give the Twins the option they would most covet.
     
    Never in baseball do teams draft for need. The developmental arc for amateur players is too significant to make decisions looking for immediate impact. There's never going to be a time that pitching isn't at a premium though, and Minnesota adding a potential top tier arm to the organization is hardly a bad step. The decision will remain fluid right up until the day of the draft (which is now less than a month away), but if I'm the Twins, Kyle Wright is who I want.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    NOTE: View the images and breakdowns included in this article at it's original source here.
     
    The date is April 20, 2017, and Byron Buxton has just played in his 15th game for the Minnesota Twins this season. To show for his efforts, he's compiled a .082/.135/.122 slash line across 49 at bats, and nothing looks to be going right for the one-time uber-prospect. If there was a rock bottom for the Georgia native in the early going this season, that was most definitely it. Since however, the Twins centerfielder has turned a corner, and the results are worth taking note of.
     
    Over the course of the 2017 slate to date, it's been noted that Buxton would remain an asset given his exceptional centerfield defense. He covers ground at an elite level, and is among the best in the game at taking away would be run producing plays. What was always the question, is how long the Twins would have to punt on him in the lineup, solely to keep his glove in the outfield. Although just a small sample size, the time he's spent on the field from April 21 onwards suggests we may be seeing him turn a corner.
    As of May 10, Buxton has played 12 games for the Twins since April 21. He owns a .333/.442/.500 slash line, while contributing a double, triple, and home run. After fanning 24 times and drawing just two walks in his first 15 games, he's compiled a very solid 9/7 K/BB ratio since. Buxton has halved his K% (46.2% down to 20.9% split between both samples), and he's multiplied a 4.3 LD% ten-fold (41.7 LD% since 4/21). There's virtually no numerical value that doesn't suggest a massive turnaround for the Twins young outfielder. Maybe most promising of all, the process at the plate appears to be driving the results.
     
    Early on, Buxton was swinging through pitches all over the zone, but he was chasing outside of it an incredible amount as well. Per Baseball Savant, Buxton swung through 22 (of 204 pitches seen) balls outside of the zone prior to April 21. Fast forwarding through his most recent 12 games, he's swung and missed at just eight (of 179 pitches seen) balls out of the zone. He's holding back on inside pitches, and darting out at breaking balls away much less.
     
    Also, when making contact, we can visibly see just how much better the bat is meeting the ball. Buxton is swinging through the centerpoint of the ball more often, allowing a higher percentage of strong contact.
     
    It's also important to note that most of what Buxton has changed has been a result of his own doing. Opposing pitchers haven't attacked him too incredibly different of late either. The book on him has been to bust him in, as well as getting him to flail away. Having seen a high portion of balls down and away, Buxton is seeing less pitches over the middle of the plate. Generally a pull hitter, pitchers have tried to neutralize his tendency by forcing him to deal with the outside pitch.
     
    Looking at swings roughly a month a part, there's some slight tweaks happening there as well. Facing the White Sox on April 7. Stepping into the box, it appears that Buxton has more of a straight forward plan lef. There's a slight openness to it, but his stance is squared off by definition. The bat is cocked back with his hands flexed. Looking at his process on May 9, the stance has an open plant leg, with hands resting a bit more upright and the bat head remaining high.
    Buxton's first movement is to drop his hands and create somewhat of an upward lean with his torso. In the image from May 9, his hands stay cocked, while the upper body hovers still in an upright position.
    While pitch locations differ, the follow through follows a drastically different path as well. In the first image, Buxton's ankle rollover is drastic, his head has pulled off the pitch, and his high finish has him looking anywhere but at the ball. When making contact on May 9, Buxton stares down at his swing path, has his head at the point of contact, and keeps a strong plant leg without any real significant rollover.
     
    Sure, it's fair to suggest that putting any instances in a vacuum will result in a desirable outcome. What seems to be at play here, as a whole, is a guy that's made some minor tweaks and is seeing some major results. I still don't think that Byron Buxton is a .300 hitter at the big league level, but expecting him to push for .280 with power is a pretty safe bet in my eyes. This is a young hitter still trying to find his way, but if these changes continue to hold up, it won't take until September 2017 for them to be on full display.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Through the first month of the big league season, Ryan Pressly has had a rough time out of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. A reliever that profiled well for a high leverage role in the late innings, he's staring at an ERA just south of 9.00 and at times, has been searching for answers. A bit deeper dive suggests all is not lost however.
     
    Currently, the Twins former Rule 5 selection owns a 8.74 ERA across 11.1 IP. He's surrendered three homers, and owns a 5.56 FIP. There's no way to look at those numbers and suggest that there's a whole heap of positive to be had. Looking beyond the surface a little bit though, we can see this start has the ability to be a small blip on the radar in what can turn out to be a nice season.
     
    Maybe most easily visible, Pressly is actually striking out 8.7 per nine, up from his career high a year ago. He's also walking slightly more than in 2016 (3.2 BB/9 as opposed to 2.7 BB/9), but it's not incredibly far off from his career norms. His offerings have stayed the same, and he's actually seen velocity increases on all three of his pitches (including a 2 mph jump with his slider).
     
    So what gives then right?
     
    Well, the reality is that Pressly has seen his confidence shaken in roughly three pitches, by three relative no name hitters. He's given up homers this season to Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson, and John Hicks. None of those three are big league stalwarts, and they came off of a good fastball, and two hanging sliders.
     
    From a results standpoint, Pressly has generated virtually the same amount of groundballs, line drives, and fly balls. He also has a similar (albeit slightly down) chase rate, with a similar swinging strike percentage. There's not a massive spike in contact, or contact being made within the zone either. If there's a spike, it's in how hard balls are being put into play, and what is happening in those instances.
     
    During 2017, Pressly is allowing hard hit contact 40.5% of the time, up from 31.8% a year ago. Also, his home run to fly ball rate has skyrocketed from 9.5% in 2016 to 21.4% this season. The hard hit rate has also produced a .353 BABIP, up from his career .300 mark, and .311 last season. Of the 185 pitches Pressly has thrown, 14 have been put in play with an exit velocity north of 95 mph. Of those 14 balls in play, 10 of them have resulted in base hits.
     
    Hard contact resulting in runners on base isn't groundbreaking by any means. It would make sense that a ball being put in play with solid contact would result in a good outcome more often than not. What's unfortunate, is that the hard contact is coming just under half of the time for the Twins reliever. It's likely in part a by product of throwing with increased velocity, but also likely in part, due to batters being more able to hit the Twins reliever.
     
    At this point, I'm not sure if Pressly has tipped pitches, or shown any hints to opposing hitters that would give his stuff away. As things stand, he's doing everything he always has done, but three balls in the seats have inflated his overall numbers. Opposing hitters making hard contact are forcing him to really work through his outings, but for a guy with his stuff, it shouldn't be an obstacle he's incapable of overcoming.
     
    When at his best, Pressly is among the best arms in the Twins pen. Clearly that time is not now, but there's not much to suggest he can't get back to it either.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the offseason, there was no such thing as Twins talk that didn't include the discussion surrounding Brian Dozier. After launching 42 (43) homers, Minnesota was out for a king's ransom in return for their prized second basemen. When the Dodgers eventually bowed out in favor of Logan Forsythe, Minnesota took their toys and went home. It's worth wondering though, is Dozier even the most valuable trade chip that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine possess?
     
    He's not a true number one starter by any means, but the Twins ace Ervin Santana has gotten off to a blistering pace in 2017. He currently owns a big league leading 0.66 ERA. He's 5-0 through six starts, and has already tallied a complete game shutout. His 0.707 WHIP is nearly half of his career 1.268 mark and both his K/9 and BB/9 fall right in line with his career averages.
     
    Now, you'd be silly to extrapolate a six start sample size to the duration of the season. However, for a starting pitcher, six games equates to roughly 20% of the expected workload. While it's still just the beginning, it's a more significant piece of the puzzle than anything a hitter has compiled through one month of meaningful action.
     
    I wrote about Santana a bit ago, and that this season isn't all that out of nowhere for him. Of course predicting him to be this good is a stretch, but the reality is that he's been good for a while, and a few small tweaks, along with good defense has helped him immensely. Santana owns a 2.98 FIP to date, nearly a full run better than at any other point in his career. He's also generated more weak contact than any starting pitcher not named Andrew Triggs.
     
    This sample size can be extended back even a bit further as well. Dating back to July 2016, Santana has posted a 1.93 ERA along with a 3.22 FIP. Opposing hitters have batted just .184 off of him in those 22 starts, and his WHIP rests at 0.95. Behind him, he's had an outfield composed mainly of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. If and when he's allowing contact to the grass, it's generally falling into leather.
     
    Attempting to put some sort of a bow on it, Santana has elevated himself slightly, and has also enjoyed some very strong defense behind him. He's been the Twins ace, and among the best pitcher's in the game. It's really not a small sample size at this point, and you can bet other teams are taking notice.
     
    So with those other teams, the Twins could find themselves in the driver's seat. Last offseason, Minnesota was tasked with attempting to get fair value for a second basemen that hit 14 more homers than his previous career best, and posted an OPS over .100 points north of the season before. Brian Dozier was, and remains, a regression candidate in every sense of the word. That's not to sell Dozier short, even at a .760 OPS and 25 home run total, he's a very nice big leaguer, the problem is the market has a good deal of those.
     
    Arguably moreso now than at any point in recent memory, the second base position in the big leagues is stacked. From Altuve to Cano, and Kinsler to Murphy, there's at least 10 (or one-third) legitimate star two baggers. With that being the reality, the position remains both a luxury, and one that many top teams have accounted for.
     
    When talking to the Dodgers, Minnesota targeted Jose De Leon in exchange for Dozier. They also asked for names like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler, neither of whom could've ever been had even straight up. De Leon entered 2017 averaging somewhere around the 30th best prospect, and he's yet to pitch this season after dealing with injury troubles. Minnesota was wise to want more for a player that means so much to their franchise, but getting a fair return for Dozier is likely always going to be an uphill battle.
     
    That leads us to this; what if Ervin Santana is actually the more valuable piece? Pitching is always going to be at a premium, and Santana comes controllable at $27.m over the next two seasons. For a guy that's been anywhere close to what he's produced, that's larceny. On the flip side, Dozier's team control ends after next season, and he's due for a raise well above the $9m he's slated to make.
     
    If the Twins can continue to hover around .500, it probably makes more sense for them to hold onto everything, make a splash in the offseason, and go for it in 2018 and beyond. If they don't see that window ready to break open however, it very well could be Santana that restocks the farm, and that wasn't likely the case even a few months ago.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Through the first month of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have been as some would've expected. Sure, coming off a franchise worst 103 losses, .500 may have seemed incredible to most, but they remained largely the same team that was competitive during 2015. After a winning April, Minnesota has more than a handful of players doing some good things.
     
    While it's worth breaking down individual performances, gleaning too much from under 100 at bats is a pretty tough ask. For the purpose of this post, examining where some of the Twins are leading the way is the goal. There's ample examples, and the names come from all over the lineup. Let's get into it.
     
    Ervin Santana
     
    With a 0.77 ERA, Santana is pacing MLB in the category. He also holds the best WHIP (0.66) and batting average against (.116) in the game. With four wins under his belt, he's well on his way to eclisping the 2016 total of seven. Santana is generating soft contact 23% of the time (21st in MLB) and is really enjoying a strong defense behind him.
     
    Miguel Sano
     
    No one in all of baseball has a higher average exit velocity than Miguel Sano's 99+ mph total. He is absolutely destroying baseballs this season, and it's led to a .450 BABIP. Haven taken 18 walks (2nd in AL), Sano has really honed in his discipline at the plate, and he's punishing pitchers for allowing him to make contact. His 2.1% soft contact rating is the lowest in MLB. Although it doesn't mean much of anything, Sano is also leading the American League with 25 RBIs.
     
    Joe Mauer
     
    If there's a guy that is destined to turn things around to a certain extent for the Twins, it's Mauer. He's batting just .225, but owns the lowest swinging strike rate in MLB (2.1%). Mauer is hitting the ball harder this season than in any since 2013, and his fly ball rate has doubled (41.9%) from a year ago. At some point, he's going to see more balls drop for base hits.
     
    Jorge Polanco
     
    While you may expect Mauer not to fan on too many pitches, Jorge Polanco is right there with him. With just a 3.9% swinging strike rate, Polanco owns the third best tally in the big leagues (behind only Mauer and Rockies D.J. LeMahieu). Also somewhat surprisingly, it's Polanco with 4 DRS at short that is pacing the Twins defensively. As recently as April 30, that was among the top numbers in the big leagues.
     
    Brandon Kintzler
     
    Maybe flying somewhat under the radar, the Minnesota closer owns the second highest save total (7) in the American League. Kintzler is a perfect 7-7 in save opportunities, and owns just a 0.79 ERA across 11.1 IP. Sustainability is worrisome as he's walking more and striking out fewer, but for now, he's making it work.
     
    Right now, the season is still in it's infancy. Given what the Twins are coming off of though, it's nice to see the club playing .500 baseball, and with a realistic path to see that same level of competency continue throughout the summer.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    Through the first month of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's hard to argue against Miguel Sano being the Minnesota Twins most valuable player. Ervin Santana has been incredible on the mound (and he's benefited from improved defense) but Sano has really come into his own, and it's been fun to watch. Why trying to find answers as to why, Sano is quite simply destroying baseballs.
     
    With the first month behind him, Miguel Sano has been worth 1.5 fWAR and owns a .316/.443/.684 slash line. It's a far cry better than his .235/.356/.388 mark a year ago through April, and his seven homers put him on pace for right around 40 at season's end. The Twins third basemen is drawing walks (an MLB best 18), while striking out just a bit less often as well.
     
    Digging beyond the surface numbers, the biggest thing bolstering Sano's production is just how hard he is hitting the baseball. Generating hard contact 55.3% of the time, he's over 13% higher than his career average. Fly ball, line drive, and ground ball rates all remain relatively in tact, but Sano is depositing balls in the air over the fence 33.3% of the time (with a career mark of 23.9%). Hard hit contact generally produces around a .700 batting average, and that helps to explain why Sano is currently enjoying a .450 BABIP.
     
    Noted earlier, Sano is drawing a few more walks and commanding the zone a bit better. His swinging strike rate is at 14.0% (replicating 2016), but he's chased pitches out of the zone 2% less of the time, and he has raised his contact rate by just over 1%. It's not a significant or massive boost, but it helps to paint the bigger picture.
     
    Everything continues to point back to how hard Sano is putting the ball in play however. When looking at Fangraphs calculations for hard hit rate, only Nick Castallanos (56.7%) has a higher hard hit rate than Sano's 55.3%. When diving into Statcast at Baseball Savant, Sano's 99.3 average exit velocity is nearly 4 mph harder than the number two, Khris Davis (95.8). When generating hard contact, it obviously comes from solid bat to ball connection points, and Sano has barreled 12 baseballs this year, good enough for 5th in MLB.
     
    There's virtually no reason to believe that Sano is going to keep up the pace he's currently on. Expecting the Twins hulking third basemen to finish with an average north of .300 is a fool's errand. Digging down to OBP or OPS can tell us a bit more, but this seems a good time to referring wOBA (weighted on base average).
     
    Where OBP and OPS try to tell us more about how a batter is getting on base, and the weight of those bases, neither completely encompasses how valuable one hit is over another. With wOBA, we have a more accurate way to evaluate hits in relation to their expected run value. You can read more on the concept here, but a general rule of thumb is .320 hovers around league average, while great is anything north of .400.
     
    After the first month of the season, the Nationals have the top two spots accounted for when sorting MLB hitters by wOBA (Zimmerman .553 Harper .521). You only have to go down to the 7th spot to find the Twins Miguel Sano however, as his .466 puts him well into the excellent category. Sano's career wOBA is .369, and his 2015 season produce a .392 mark. While he continues to get on base, he's routinely doing so for multiple bags at a time, and it's a by product of how hard he is hitting the ball.
     
    It's always been an expected reality that Miguel Sano was going to strike out. When at his best, Sano is fending off those strikeouts by generating extra base hits (namely homers), as well as drawing walks. He's made strides in plate discipline this season, and in turn, that's allowed him to square up the pitches he chooses to go after.
    Fast forwarding a few months down the road, we'll likely see Sano's average (and numbers as a whole) dip.
     
    What should sustain however, is the overall results. As long as Miguel continues to be patient and square up the pitches he puts swings on, he'll find sustained success. Soft contact isn't something he's going to produce, and fielding the balls he's roping into play over half the time will continue to be a difficult task for defenders.
     
    The Twins knew Sano would hit for years, but I can't imagine they expected him to destroy baseballs at the pace he's currently on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have seen a nice turnaround to start the 2017 Major League Baseball season. Hovering around the .500 mark, Paul Molitor's squad looks much more reflective of their true talent level than the team did just a season ago. You could argue that the club's main attraction thus far has been their ace Ervin Santana. This go round though, he's not just the Twins ace, but is currently pitching better than anyone in baseball.
     
    A couple of years ago, I wrote a piece on Ervin Santana and what he needed to do in order to be effective in Minnesota. The crux of the discussion is that on his own, Santana has had a solid career, and his best years have come with good outfields behind him. Up until this point, that's something the Twins ace hasn't been able to say. Now with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario behind him on a nightly basis, he's enjoying the returns.
     
    Through five starts, Santana owns a 42.4% fly ball rate. That's the highest mark of his career since 2010 with the Los Angeles Angels. His ground ball rate is on par with his career averages, and his line drive rate is actually reduced. Summarizing the balls put in play. Santana is getting more fly outs, and combining that with the fact they aren't being hit as hard (his 24.1% hard hit rate is a career low).
     
    When it comes to stuff, Santana isn't rewritting his book by any means. He's still throwing fastballs, sliders, and changeups all at the same relative velocity. In fact, outside of his changeup, which he's relied on a bit more, Santana is utilizing his repertoire in roughly the same fashion as well. He's not getting opposing hitters to chase that much more (33.1% is a career high, but just up from 31.4% in 2016), and he's actually generating less swinging strikes (8.4%). Batters are being allowed to put the ball in play (82.3% contact rate is a career high), but Ervin is also striking out just over one-fifth of the batters he faces (21.1% K rate).
     
    Again, it's not some reinvention of the wheel, but rather a solid pitcher that's been given exceptional circumstances. We also see the evidence in looking at Santana's FIP mark to date, 3.06. With a sparkling 0.77 ERA, it's actually been the fielding that has helped to significantly elevate the overall results.
     
    When broken down to results, Santana finds himself atop the proverbial mountain for the time being. He's 4-0 through five starts. His 35.0 IP have yielded just three earned runs, and he's got a serviceable 2.6 K/BB ratio. Leading the league in WHIP (0.657) as well as hits per nine (3.3), the Dominican has himself positioned to benefit exponentially from good defense behind him.
     
    There's been plenty of talk regarding what to do with Byron Buxton. He's scuffled to start 2017, and his bat has lagged behind his glove. Although that's turned somewhat recently, it will remain a question how much Minnesota can give up offensively to keep their outfield defense in tact. I'd imagine if the club asked Ervin Santana of his preference, it'd be that those behind him in the field stay the same.
     
    Unlike volatile signings like Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, players that had a pretty wide variety of potential outcomes, Ervin Santana always appeared to be a safe, high floor pitcher for the Twins.He's proving as much at this point, and the strong defensive effort is elevating him to new heights. As the year draws on, the Twins will find themselves with a decision to make.
     
    Minnesota is on the hook to pay Santana $13.5 million in 2018, with a $14m team option in 2019, or a $1m buyout. If the club continues to tread water around the .500 mark, it makes sense to keep Santana and pair him with a top tier arm for a playoff push a year from now. Should the timeline look farther off, they could have arguably the most valuable trade chip on the market come the middle of the summer. It's a good problem to have, and for an organization that has been pitching starved for so long, a welcomed one.
     
    It could've been expected that a focus on catching and defense would raise the ability of the pitching staff, but Santana is making that work to perfection. By and large, he's the same guy he's always been, and the sum of Minnesota's parts has turned him into a gem to start the year. Now, it's up to the entire collection to keep it rolling.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins inked ByungHo Park to a 4 year, $12 million deal prior to the 2016 Major League Baseball season. Park's first year stateside didn't go well, and I believe a lot can be attributed to a nagging wrist injury. In 2017 however, fellow KBO slugger Eric Thames is taking the league by storm, and it's fair to wonder what the difference is.
     
    Thames came up with the Toronto Blue Jays, making his debut in 2011 at the age of 24. He was a 7th round pick out of Pepperdine, and his first two big league seasons (he also spent time with the Mariners) equated to just a .727 OPS and 21 total homers. After struggling to grab hold in the big leagues, Thames took his talents overseas.
     
    Both Thames and Park were in the KBO during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The Twins slugger totaled 105 homers in those two years, and posted back to back seasons of OPS numbers north of 1.100. If there was a detractor, it was that Park also fanned a whopping 303 times in 268 games. For Thames, there power was there also, as he hit 84 dingers in that time span. Like Park, Thames also posted back-to-back years with an OPS north of 1.100 but he struck out just 190 times in 267 games (Thames actually had a 91/103 K/BB in 2015).
     
    While both Eric Thames and ByungHo Park were gargantuan power hitters in the KBO, it was Thames who was showing a bit more underlying sustainability. The Californian was more locked in at the plate, and it was his discipline that helped to foster his power.
     
    Fast forward to 2017, and Thames is continuing that same narrative at the big league level.
     
    When Thames debuted, he was more of a free swinger with a powerful hack. He owned a 175/38 K/BB ratio across his first 181 MLB games. In 2017 however, the Brewers slugger has struck out just 18 times while drawing 13 walks. On top of that, Thames owns just an 8.8% swinging strike rate, and he's chased pitches out of the zone just 20.6% of the time. His contact rates are on par with his career numbers (77.4% in 2017, 75.6% career), but he's simply going after more quality pitches.
     
    Across the 10 homers Thames has to his credit thus far, we see that he's victimized all pitches in all zones. He has hit fastballs, changeups, curveballs, and sliders over the fence. He's also taken pitches inside, outside, and down out of the yard. Somewhat surprisingly, the one type of pitch he's yet to homer on is the ball up in the zone. Waiting out his pitch however, has put Thames in the driver's seat when it comes to dictating an at bat.
     
    With no data to speak of in 2017, Park's numbers come from his debut season. It was apparent that he struggled with velocity, and reading breaking pitches seemed to be a challenge at times as well. I'd wager that a good deal of the problem was his wrist injury, but he displayed a much lesser ability to wait pitchers out than the aforementioned Thames. Although the 26.7% chase rate isn't terrible, Park had a poor 15% swinging strike rate.
     
    Right now, the Twins slugger is on the shelf, but his 2017 production is reliant upon two key abilities. One, he absolutely needs to be right and healthy. The wrist injury was probably more than he let on a year ago, and that needs to be behind him. Secondly, Park needs to dictate more while at the plate. The strikeouts probably are going to continue, but if he can develop a stronger ability to command the zone, he should find plenty more opportunity to put the ball over the fence.
     
    Just as the expectation shouldn't be that Thames continues his torrid pace, it's probably fair to assume Park has quite a bit more in the tank than he initially showed. Regardless, it would be fun to see both of these guys contributing at the highest level sooner rather than later, and there's no doubt the Twins would be better for it.
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. Ted Schwerzler
    Through his first 15 games of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, Byron Buxton owns a .082/.135/.122 slash line. He's just 4-52 and has struck out in 24 of his at bats. There's no one who wants to see things turnaround more than Buxton, but the question is, where do we go from here?
     
    First, we have to take a look at what isn't working. The reality is that Buxton is striking out 46.2% of the time, up from 35.6% a season ago, and easily the worst mark of his career. Despite his success at Triple-A, he posted a 27.8% strikeout rate in 49 games during 2016, and that number has only increased at the big league level.
     
    On top of the strikeouts, Buxton seems to be guessing far more often than not at the plate. His hard hit rate of 24% is a career low, and his 20.1% swinging strike rate is worse than every qualified big leaguer not named Paulo Orland (21.2%) or Danny Espinosa (23.1%). As would be expected with all of the whiffs, Buxton's contact percentage comes in at just 61%, down from 67.9% a year ago, and easily a career worst mark. That number is the second worst among qualified hitters, thanks again to Danny Espinosa (58.5%).
     
    While I don't expect Buxton to hit for the average he's posted in the minors, he appears to revert into a complete guess hitter while struggling. The belief that his average will be left on the farm is mainly rooted in the idea that I see power being more a part of his game at the big league level. If things are working, an average somewhere around .240-.260 seems to make sense, as long as there's 20 or so homers with it.
     
    The most concerning thing at this stage is Buxton's ability, or lack thereof, to put the bat on the ball. Through April 20, he's seen 240 pitches. 34 of them have been called strikes, while he's swung through another 40 or so. Although he does have problems with breaking pitches, there's been more than a handful of fastballs that the Twins centerfielder's bat has avoided. Looking at his swing and miss chart to this point, the book appears to be targeting him down and away. A guy that chases and already struggles to make contact, is going to have a real rough go with that type of pitch.
     
    Parker Hageman, from Twins Daily, compared Buxton's swing from last September to where it is now. His plant foot has virtually closed him off to the inside pitch, and it leaves at least a third of the zone that he's unable to do anything productive with. This could be an effort to reach the outside edge, but data tells us that those pitches aren't being executed on either. In striding directly back towards the pitcher, Buxton would have a much more realistic view of not only the zone, but ability to spray pitches from where they are pitched.
     
    Of the nearly 50 at bats Buxton has had this season, the Twins youngster has had two strikes on him in 30 of those instances. He's been behind in the count roughly half of the time (23 ABs), and has faced 0-2 or 1-2 counts in 19 at bats. If you're going to close off the hitting zone, guess through pitch sequences, and fail to drive your hands through the ball, none of those additional factors will set you up for success.
     
    Now, why shouldn't we worry? First and foremost, this sample is based off of less than 50 at bats. Right now, the White Sox Avisail Garcia (a career .260 hitter), leads MLB with a .423 average. There's also 12 big leaguers batting sub .150, and they include names like Napoli, Story, Granderson, Swanson, Bautista, Reyes, and Martin (no wonder why the Blue Jays are off to a slow start eh?). On top of that, Buxton is still just 23 years old.
     
    It's absolutely fair to groan a bit when looking at the reasons for positivity when it comes to Buxton, we've heard them plenty of times before. That doesn't change the reality however. Most big leaguers don't truly show what they are as a hitter until right around 1,000 career at bats (Buxton has 474). In total, across three seasons, Buxton has played just 152 major league games as well (he debuted at 21).
     
    Looking back at some former Twins greats, Buxton is already quite advanced. Kirby Pucket was at Single-A as a 23 year old, Torii Hunter had just 17 at bats in the big leagues prior to his 23rd birthday, and really, Joe Mauer is last the last true success story at an age younger than Byron (Mauer had a .297/.371/.440 slash line in 166 G prior to his 23rd birthday). With Buxton still being among the youngest players at the highest level of the game, it's not incredibly surprising that he's still trying to find his footing.
     
    If the two biggest reasons to pause on concern for Buxton remain related to his age and lack of experience, repetition would continue to be the biggest remedy in my book. As the Twins carry on through the 2017 season, there's little to gain by jettisoning Buxton back to a level he's dominated any time before the summer. Continuing to allow him to learn and hone his craft against the level he must succeed at seems like a logical plan. Unfortunately, it's not one I'm certain the Twins go with.
     
    Recently, Paul Molitor pinch hit Eduardo Escobar for Buxton late in a game against the Cleveland Indians. There wasn't much reason for the move, it took an at bat from Buxton, and the Twins short bench forced Escobar out of position into left field. It's moves like these that beg the question as to whether or not Molitor understands how to develop the organization's future.
     
    When evaluating whether the Twins skipper is the right man for the role, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could be compelled to look no further than Buxton. It's one thing to not have a first round pick to work out, but when you have the consensus number one prospect in baseball, failure really isn't an option. Molitor hasn't gotten any measurable success from Buxton's development, and his trust in him would seem uncertain as well, as witnessed by a move such as the pinch hit scenario. Regardless of who the Twins sign or trade for, the reality is the future rests on the shoulders of players like Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Jose Berrios.
     
    To summarize, there's nothing that hasn't been frustrating about Byron Buxton's start through the first two weeks of the season. He knows that, and anyone watching him play knows that. There also is plenty of reason for pause when it comes to writing him off, it's been two weeks. The best remedy to get him right is continued repetition, and fine tuning what isn't working. His manager also needs to remain committed to that goal, and the talk of any demotion needs to be shelved in lieu of consistent playing time for at least the next month.
     
    Right now, nothing is going right, but the mixed messages don't help the process either. Byron Buxton may not hit at the big league level, but we shouldn't be anywhere near that question at this point.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the offseason, Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes rehabbed from his recent Thoracic Outlet surgery. After getting hit on the kneecap by a comebacker, it seemed Hughes was going to use the months ahead as a time to get all phases of his body right. Now looking at early returns in the 2017 season, it's fair to wonder if "right" is something that will ever completely exist again.
     
    Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is a condition that causes symptoms such as numbness in extremities, as well as shoulder and neck pain. The cause is from nerves or blood vessels being strained in a person's chest, and the remedy involves a surgery the removes a rib from the body. In baseball, it's a surgery that has become more prevalent, but one that has had mixed results, and leads to a good deal of uncertainty.
     
    For much of 2016, Phil Hughes seemed to be laboring, and at times was even called into question as to why he was pitching at all. There were conflicting reports, and eventually he found himself shelved. His season ended after suffering a left knee fracture endured on a comebacker from J.T. Realmuto. This also served as a time in which he could undergo the TOS surgery, and rehab both injuries to get ready for 2017.
     
    At points throughout 2016, Hughes had his velocity questioned, and the results showed there was cause for concern. For a pitcher that hasn't sniffed a double digit strikeout rate since being used as a reliever with the Yankees during 2009, the room for error has always been relatively small. In Hughes' corner, is the reality that with the Twins, he's issued very few free passes (setting an MLB all time record in K/BB during 2013). As things stand now however, hitters seem to be teeing off on what Hughes puts over, and they're having a good amount of success.
     
    Starting with velocity, Hughes sees his biggest red flag. When at his best with Minnesota in 2013, he posted an average of 92 mph on his fastball. This season, through three starts, he's averaging under 90 mph on his fastball, with each of his other pitches following suit (in fact, he's lost 3 mph on his changeup). The combined result has equated to Hughes giving up hard hit contact 51.9% of the time (up from 37.7% in 2016, and 30.2% in his career).
     
    It seems Hughes is looking for answers as well. In his second start of the season, he threw 25 changeups to opposing batters. For a guy that used the pitch just 3.8% of the time a season ago, his usage rate has skyrocketed to 21.7% this year. Then however, when facing the Indians on April 18, Hughes threw his chanegup just five times in 73 pitches, and was tagged with 6 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits over just 3.1 IP.
     
    Over the entirety of his career, Hughes has always been prone to the long fly. In 2015, his 29 homers surrendered led the league, and giving up 11 in 12 games prior to shutting down last season wasn't a great path either. The trend has continued in 2017, as he's allowed three longballs in three starts. What's worse is that along with the lack of velocity, or trust in his offerings, is that Hughes' location hasn't been ideal either. He's given up homers on absolute cookies.
     
    What it all boils down to is uncertain at this point, but there's some pretty concerning trends here. The lack of velocity is a real issue, and one that won't correct itself over time. Whether he moves to the pen or not, Hughes' effectiveness is going to be sapped by his declining pitch speed. On top of that, he seems to be guessing as to which pitch he trusts most, and that could leave him in a spot with nothing to rely on.
     
    When the dust settles, Phil Hughes is in a place where a guy that doesn't strike many out doesn't want to be. The Twins hurler is giving up a ton of hard contact, keeping lots of balls in the zone, and doesn't have a way to get a pitch by an opposing hitter. With two years and over $26 million left on his contract, the Twins need some sort of revolution from Phil, and it's a serious predicament as to whether or not it will happen.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Right now, the Minnesota Twins have an unsustainable pitching output. While they find themselves near the top of Major League Baseball in ERA, WHIP, and BAA, the reality is that regression is coming. Regardless of how steep that hits, the reality for the Twins in the coming months, is that they should finally have some tough decisions to make on the mound.
     
    For far too many of the previous seasons, the practice for Minnesota has been to simply swap out a broken down arm for the next man up. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, the Twins have just swapped out an arm with a heartbeat for another. Although top tier pitching depth isn't something the organization has in spades, it's getting close to the point that the cream of the crop is rising to the top.
     
    The rotation may be the most murky situation for the Twins braintrust to figure out. Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago are going nowhere, unless a trade presents itself. Phil Hughes has been serviceable, and at this point, seems to have put to rest any worry about fallout from his Thoracic Outlet surgery. While still raw, Adalberto Mejia deserves some run, and projects as a solid back end option. While Kyle Gibson has turned decent starts into mediocre ones due to a bad pitch or inning, there's not much place for him to go either.
     
    Nearly ready to claim a spot back on the big league bump is top young pitcher Jose Berrios. He's been all but lights out in Rochester thus far, and has made two starts stretching out to just over 80 pitches. Through two starts, Jose owns a 0.64 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and has walked just one batter in 14.0 IP. It's absolutely fair to worry about his big league struggles, but he's mastered Triple-A and needs the next step.
     
    There probably aren't too many other arms that factor into the rotation discussion in 2017 (unless Stephen Gonsalves gets healthy quick), but 2018 could see Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge knocking on the door. If Berrios is beginning to command room in the rotation, it's the pen that is going to have suitors in short order as well.
     
    It's pretty apparent the Twins pen has been good to start the year. What is also easy to see though, is that it's relatively void of impact arms. Guys like Ryan Pressly, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers are probably entrenched as they should be. For the rest though, it will continue to be a "prove it" scenario on a nightly basis.
     
    Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have both kicked off 2017 nicely. Neither has allowed a run, and both are piling up strikeouts. Pitching for Double-A Chattanooga, it's fair to assume they could be moved up quickly. Trevor Hildenberger has continued to throw well for Triple-A Rochester, and should also be forcing himself into the picture. If you want to throw in Tyler Jay and Jake Reed (neither has pitched yet in 2017), there's a good amount of mouths needing to be fed soon.
     
    The crossroads Minnesota would welcome, is a scenario in which these top young arms are forcing out guys on the big league roster. Rather than simply realizing a Michael Tonkin or Craig Breslow can't hack it, the Twins could find themselves in position to pick the guys with the greatest upside. It's a scenario that has escaped the club for quite some time, but one that could help to turn the tides back towards relevancy.
     
    Regardless of how hard regression hits this pitching staff, the help from Jason Castro, and a much improved defense is going to keep a good portion of it in check. It'd be a welcomed breath of fresh air to see Minnesota around league average in the heart of the summer, and find themselves in a position to take the next step from within.
     
    Velocity, strikeouts, and staples are what a good deal of the next wave of pitchers should bring to Target Field. Replacing guys that are already capable with that level of ability is something we can all be a little bit excited about.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Before the 2017 season began, I wrote that Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor may be managing for his career in 2017. The crux of the thought process is that he's unproven, age isn't on his side, and a new job isn't incredibly likely to present itself. Now into the early part of the season, it's beginning to appear that the Twins record may not be the determining factor in his employment status a year from now.
     
    While not electrifying by any means, the Twins have gotten out to a nice start. After losing their first 9 games to kick off the 2016 season, a 7-5 record through 12 this year is something Twins Territory will accept. The club has notched two series victories, and really should have had a third (and second against the Chicago White Sox in as many tries). It's that second series against the White Sox though that presents the case against Molitor for new front office mates, Derek Falvey and Thad Lavine.
     
    On Sunday April 16, the Twins held a 1-0 lead thanks to an unlikely inside-the-park home run from Brian Dozier. Hector Santiago was pitching quite a gem, coming on the heels of an Ervin Santana one hit, complete game shutout.
     
    The hometown nine gave up the lead on some rather unfortunate fundamentals from normally sound centerfielder Byron Buxton. Despite leading the big leagues in defensive runs saved through the early going, and having a cannon for an arm, Buxton failed to get in proper position on a Matt Davidson fly ball, allowing Jose Abreu to score from third. There's plenty of room to suggest even a properly played ball would have allowed Abreu to score, but the reality is that Buxton didn't get behind the ball, fielded it to the wrong side, and uncorked a less than desirable throw. It hopped a few times, and came in late.
     
    Davidson's sac fly for the White Sox came in the 8th inning, and it's there that we find the first curious move from Molitor. To start the inning, Molitor replaced Robbie Grossman in right field with Danny Santana. Although Grossman is no asset himself, Santana as a defensive replacement is laughable at best. A year ago, he was worth -9 DRS in the outfield, and he's among the worst defensive players on any 25 man roster. Given the reality that Minnesota was currently going with a three man bench, the move makes no sense, and would eventually come back to haunt them (more on that in a bit).
     
    While not nearly the gaffe that Santana's entry was, Molitor turned the ball over to Matt Belisle in the 8th. It's been relatively apparent in the early going that Ryan Pressly has the best stuff of any Twins reliever. He has strikeout ability, and his velocity is a task for big league hitters. With Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia due up 2nd and 3rd in the inning, the leverage was calling for the club's best pitcher. Belisle struck out Tyler Saladino, hit Jose Abreu, allowed a base hit to Garcia, and then watched the White Sox first basemen to come around and score on Davidson's sac fly. Pressly may not have held the South Siders down, but I'd have given him the chance.
     
    In the bottom half of the inning, Molitor's decision defensively immediately came back to bite him. Removing Grossman, a high on base guy and a batter with a strong early slash line, Danny Santana hit behind Joe Mauer who had reached on a single. Santana promptly went down swinging and Mauer never advanced beyond first base.
     
    Neither team could push a run across in the 9th, and Molito's earlier decisions were set up to again bite him in extras. During the top of the 10th inning, Leury Garcia hit a looping ball to right field. Not deep in the gap, Santana took a very inefficient route, and turned the base hit from a single to a double. Ryan Pressly was now tasked with a runner in scoring position and no outs, as oppsed to simply having a runner on first.
     
    Whether Pressly or Molitor, the Twins decided to pitch to slugger Jose Abreu with Garcia on third and one out. They struck him out, but then decided to double down on their fortune and throw to Avisail Garcia, who was already 3-4 on the day. Despite Garcia not being an otherwordly hitter, Matt Davidson and Cody Asche followed him in the order, and are arguably easier outs. Garcia made the Twins and Pressly pay, as he ripped a 98 mph pitch over the fence in right field.
     
    In a vacuum, I can understand how nitpicking a single game over a slate of 162 doesn't hold much water. The reality is that marginal teams need to win the ones they have to their advantage, and steal some down the stretch too. What happened against the White Sox was a perfect example of Paul Molitor managing his way out of competitiveness.
     
    Over the course of his tenure with the Twins, he's shown a real ineptitude at times with the bullpen, a lack of understanding in how to best utilize his offensive assets, and an inability to develop his youth. Whether the Twins win or lose 90 games this season, I'd have to imagine the front office is more concerned about how capable Molitor truly is at handling big league scenarios. As the missteps add up, he's building a case against himself. There's validity to Paul Molitor the baseball player being an elite baseball mind. There isn't much to that comment when speaking of the manager though.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    With Opening Day now behind us, the Minnesota Twins have set out on the right foot. Winning their first Opening Day game since 2008, this club is already in a better position than many of those from seasons past. Although the seven run performance, highlighted by a Miguel Sano blast, was fun, it was Byron Buxton who should have had your full attention.
    On offense, things weren't ideal for the Twins phenom. In five at bats, he struck out three times. He was dealt a heavy dose of fastballs, and the majority were over the middle of the plate. Among the 21 pitches he saw from Royals hurlers, the Twins centerfielder swung through eight of them. The roughly 30% strikeout rate isn't something I think Byron gets away from, but he can't miss pitches at nearly a 40% clip.
    I have suggested a good amount this offseason, that I think Buxton comes into more power than we may have anticipated. Although I believe it comes as a detriment to his average and on-base percentage. Buxton could put 20 balls in the seats while batting .260 and the Twins should feel pretty good about it. His swing and miss tendencies are going to remain, but the offensive ability should rear it's head this season.
     
    Even if (when) the breakout does happen offensively, it's going to be defense that carries most of the star centerfielder's value. During the game, I discussed the defensive value that Buxton had shown a year ago. With just 3 DRS to his credit across 773.2 innings a season ago, we can see some of the fickle nature that defensive analytics are subject to. Buxton was never consistently in centerfield for Minnesota last year, and he was pressing quite often. Despite being noted as a defensive stalwart, Buxton's DRS total lagged significantly behind the Rays Kevin Kiermaier's (25 DRS in 872.1 innings).
     
    With the idea that Buxton has a full 2017 in centerfield for the Twins ahead of him, we should get a much more realistic sample size. Likely playing around 150 games in the outfield for the Twins, Buxton should log north of 1,000 innings. Allowing the one-time top prospect that type of run, we should have a very firm standing as to how fair his defensive measurements represent the output.
    A season ago, Buxton logged six "5 star catches" per Statcast. Even with his choppy sample size, he checked in as among the most prolific outfielders in the game. On Opening Day this season, Buxton logged his first "5 Star Catch" as well as making a second diving grab. The snag on Alex Gordon's liner required him to cover 36 feet in roughly 2.9 seconds. His closing speed being impeccable as it is, made the out look much more routine that can even be stated.
     
    On Opening Day, I think the reality is that Buxton has come full circle to show us both sides of his game. He's no longer timid in the box, and is swinging with authority. Likely more often than most would like, that will cause some issues. That being said, there's a level of restored confidence there, and that should contribute to bigger offensive production, and a real expectation for power numbers.
     
    In being able to settle in at the dish a bit more, Buxton is going to be in center to stay. For that, Twins pitchers will find themselves thankful much more often than not. Even with some deficiencies offensively, the Twins centerfielder is a weapon in the outfield, and as he rounds out his game as a whole, the arrow only continues to point up.
     
    This season, we should see Buxton develop much more significantly into the player he'll spend the next ten years or so being. Right now, he's far from a finish product, but in the span of one after, we were shown just about every aspect of his game that we can expect to play out.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    You've made it Twins fans, Opening Day is here. The long winter has since ended, and meaningless spring training games are in the rear view mirror. As Ervin Santana toes the rubber at Target Field, the first pitch of the 2017 Major League Baseball season for Minnesota will commence. With a 162 game slate ahead, here's what you should be watching for.
     
    First and foremost, let's catch you up if you aren't. These are some key pieces for the 2017 season that you may have missed:
    Division, World Series, and Award predictions
    2017 Minnesota Twins win total and over/unders
    Two future moves that hinge on how 2017 plays out
    The rebuild is over, it's time to build

    With that out of the way, I think there's four key narratives to be watching this season. While the playoffs may be out of reach, it's these storylines that will dictate the path that the Minnesota Twins find themselves traveling on in the seasons to come:
     
    Paul Molitor
     
    Right now, Molitor is managing as a lame duck. He's on the last year of his contract, and was mandated that he be retained by his now current bosses. At this point, Molitor has put up two seasons with mixed results, but ultimately, a flawed process. A year ago, he showed poor bullpen usage, lackluster lineup construction, and a failure to develop and connect with his young talent.
     
    Regardless of what the results end up being, Paul Molitor is going to need to hone in on his process. Can he nail down a lineup that has more sensibility to it, or at least stays consistent for some period of time? Will he be able to manage a bullpen, that already seems a bit thin, in a way that gives Minnesota an advantage? Can Minnesota's skipper get the most out of his young players and help them develop into the stars they've been touted as.
     
    It's make or break for Molitor this season, and if he wants to stay in charge of this club, the Falvey and Levine regime are going to need to see something.
     
    Byron Buxton
     
    More than any other player, it's important that Buxton breaks out. Miguel Sano is an exciting name, but a big home run threat with a high ability to strike out is something we've always expected of him. With Buxton, the elite defense is already apparent, but the offensive game needs to come into its own as well.
     
    With what we know about Buxton as a hitter, and what I believe him to be capable of, I see a guy more likely to hit 20 homers a season than bat at a .300 clip. If he can display some solid power, steal a handful of bases, and brandish the offensive tool that made him the number one prospect in all of baseball, the Twins will be in good shape.
     
    The immediate relevancy of the Twins relies upon Buxton's ability to become the player he was seen to project as. At this point, the time is now.
     
    Jose Berrios
     
    Similar to Buxton, Berrios needs to emerge for the Twins. While Minnesota is relying on Byron to round out his game, the organization needs to allow Berrios to sink or swim. While it's fine that he'll start at Triple-A Rochester, keeping him there past April would seem to be a major mistake.
     
    There's never been any real steam to Berrios being an ace, but for an organization starved for pitching, the reality is the Puerto Rican needs to round into a top of the rotation starter. If that takes half a season of him taking his lumps from big leaguers, so be it. Jason Castro and Neil Allen hold the keys to unlocking Berrios' final hurdle, and it has to happen now.
     
    2018 can't be a question mark for Berrios and the Twins. Minnesota needs to know what they have, and Jose needs to be given ample opportunity to prove it.
     
    Prospects
     
    At this point, the Twins farm system is nowhere near what it recently was. That's hardly a bad thing however, as the graduations have resulted in a big league roster filled with top tier ability. On the farm though, there's a handful of names that are integral to the immediate and sustained success.
     
    Players like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Tyler Jay and J.T. Chargois need to establish themselves this season. Having those arms in the pen allows for Minnesota to build relief from within, and it's on their shoulders that big games will be closed out for years to come. We need to see Fernando Romero, Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, and Stephen Gonsalves all ready to kick the door in. Again, with starting pitching an issue, having a stable of big league ready arms by season's end is a must.
     
    Should development of the young offensive talent turn into refined big leaguers by season's end, it's these "next up" prospects that will join a roster ready to make playoff runs in 2018 and going forward. Having them advance through the system, and look ready to contribute, is something we need to see happen.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins all but announced their 25 man Opening Day roster. In doing so, they dropped a couple of bombs. First, they would be going with 13 pitchers, and then secondly, they'd send ByungHo Park to Rochester despite no real good reason to do so. As the dust settled from the fallout, we're sitting here left to scratch out heads.
     
    First and foremost, here's the Twins Opening Day roster:
     
    Starters: Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Hughes, Mejia
    Relievers: Kintzler, Pressly, Belisle, Breslow, Tonkin, Duffey, Rogers, Haley
    Lineup: Castro ©, Mauer (1B), Dozier, (2B), Sano (3B), Polanco (SS), Rosario (LF), Buxton (CF), Kepler (RF), Grossman (DH)
    Bench: Santana, Gimenez, Escobar
     
    So, what to make of this? Let's start on the mound. Adalberto Mejia, the Twins return for Eduardo Nunez, cracks the Opening Day rotation. There's nothing wrong with this, and he's more than deserving. I wrote about how he could be a dark horse candidate even prior to Trevor May's injury. He had a strong spring, provides a second lefty, and while his ceiling isn't that high, he should be more than a serviceable back end starter.
     
    What happened with Mejia however, allowed the Twins to balk on making a decision between him and Duffey. Instead of picking one for the 5th starter, the club then doubled down and sent Duffey to the pen. I really like him as a fit there, but putting him in the group to make a total of eight pitchers is nonsensical. There's no good reason to hang onto Michael Tonkin in this scenario, and if Duffey wasn't being stretched out to stay as a starter, then whittling the pen and using a higher value arm in Duffey makes sense.
     
    Minnesota's bullpen could be among the worst in the big leagues this year. They did nothing to significantly improve it, and none of the high ceiling arms (save for Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressly) are a part of it. Duffey can move the water mark, but adding him to a glut of mediocrity is silly.
    Then we get to the position players...
     
    Immediately, the most egregious problem is that the roster has no ByungHo Park on it. While it could be argued that Kennys Vargas is a better fit, he is also void of inclusion, likely to start the year on the disabled list. The Twins DFA'd Park prior to spring training, he went out and made it look silly, and then was still left out in the cold.
     
    By leaving Park in Rochester, the Minnesota Twins will DH Robbie Grossman to start the year. That's a fine situation, especially given his on base prowess. What Grossman doesn't bring to the plate is much power. He hit 11 homers (a career high) a season ago, and his .828 OPS was over .100 points higher than his career water mark. On top of not having Park's power in the lineup, they also don't have his bat off of the bench.
     
    Worse than not having Park getting regular at bats after showing a much improved process this spring, is what Paul Molitor will have available to him off the bench. Only three players are going to be in reserve, with one of them being backup catcher Chris Gimenez. Eduardo Escobar is limited to a utility infield role, while Danny Santana can play everywhere, but is a defensive liability in all those spots as well.
     
    Although American League teams definitely don't need the bench that a National League team does, the Twins bench has three players with an average OPS of .609. Without looking, that has to be among the worst in the big leagues. There's no value coming into a pinch hit situation, and that could leave the skipper more hamstrung than you'd want him to be.
     
    At the end of the day, the Twins are going to note they wanted eight pitchers. They have a bullpen comprised of guys that don't bring a bunch of value, and they sapped their offensive value through this construction. It doesn't look great on paper, and it's hard to see it being the best scenario. That being said, we'll get to see how it plays out in very short order.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    With Opening Day of the 2017 Major League Baseball season upon us, it's time to take a look at what could be ahead for the home nine. There's plenty of projection systems out there giving us indications of what may happen, but only through a sports book can you make concrete guesses that equal out to dollars and cents. It's time to take a look at the over/unders for all things Twins related.
     
    Pulled from Bovada, there's both individual as well as team specific over/unders for the 2017 season. Although the Twins don't have anywhere close to a national following, there's still a good number of big name players with specific achievements tabulated for them. Whether $5 or $500, here's your guide as to where you confidence should lie while putting up some cash on the Twinkies.
     
    Brian Dozier HRs 29.5
     
    Coming off a campaign in which he launched 42 longballs, Brian Dozier is in for some regression. The question that needs to be answered, is how far backwards does the Twins second basemen go? In 2016, he became the only player not named Harmon Killebrew to hit 40 HRs in a season for Minnesota. Prior to that effort, he launched 23 and 28 respectively. In 2016, Dozier's HR/FB% was a career best 18.4% and well off his 12.7% career mark. If there's a Twins player I'm betting on hitting 30 homers in 2017, it's a husky 3B, not Dozier.
    Bet: Under 4* (Based on a 1* to 5* confidence rating)
     
    Ervin Santana Wins 10.5
     
    A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting staff in the big leagues. Not one pitcher picked up more than nine wins, and that was from Tyler Duffey, who was sent to Triple-A at one point. In two seasons with Minnesota, Santana has yet to record double-digit wins (albeit his 2015 was shortened). This season, he should have a solid offense behind him, but the question has to be in regards to how many leads the early season bullpen gives up. Pitcher wins are a fickle stat, and on a bad staff, I want no part of them.
     
    Bet: Under 2*
     
    Joe Mauer AVG .270
     
    It's been three years since Joe Mauer has finished a season with an average north of .270. In 2014, the former MVP batted .277 with a .732 OPS across 120 G for the Twins. This season, Paul Molitor has talked plenty about how he'll need to give his first basemen regular rest, and target a lesser load to get the best out of him. If that is followed through upon, Mauer has a chance to put up his best season since being an All Star in 2013. Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber first basemen that just can't play every day anymore, Should Minnesota use Mauer correctly, and more against RHPs (.793 OPS vs RHP .610 OPS vs LHP in 2016), then he has a very realistic shot to impress.
     
    Bet: Over 3*
     
    Max Kepler HR 17.5
     
    This is one of the most interesting numbers in the set. Kepler is not a traditional power hitter in that his swing is more reflective of a smooth stroke that simply runs into the ball. I like Kepler a lot, and think he'll make a nice career of doing damage in the gaps. He blasted 17 homers in just 113 games a year ago, and should have more opportunities this season. Kepler's lobgalls came in bunches though, and bolstered by a three-HR game, he hit 12 in a 26 game span. I'll go out on a limb here and say Byron Buxton hits more longballs than the German in 2017.
     
    Bet: Under 2*
     
    Miguel Sano HR 29.5
     
    Do you know what the Twins third basemen is going to do a lot of in 2017? He's going to strike out. Miguel Sano is also going to send a lot of baseballs into the stratosphere. Last season, in 116 games, Sano hit 25 homers. Over that time, he was told to learn a new (and odd) position, and he wasn't healthy for a good portion of the season. Regardless of the setbacks, Sano came up just five dingers shy of the 30 mark. In 2017, I'd expect Sano to strike out no less than 200 times, but when he hits 35 homers, it's not going to matter much.
    Bet: Over 4*
     
    Minnesota Twins Wins 74.5
     
    Wrapping up the list is the team number. Coming off of a 103 loss season, winning 75 games seems like a massive jump. The reality though, is that the 2016 outfit wasn't anything significantly different than the 2015 team that won 83 games. If there's something of a wildcard here, I think it's Paul Molitor. He's mismanaged his lineup and bullpen for some time, and that's going to cost a team needing to steal wins. At the end of the day though, I think the Twins have a better chance at winning 80 games, than I see them losing 90.
     
    Bet: Over 3*
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    As the spring training slate comes to a close, I couldn't help but find myself wondering about the pitching for the Minnesota Twins. The organization put forth the worst starting ERA in the majors a season ago, and the relief corps wasn't far behind. Going into 2017, it needs to be markedly better, and there's three different storylines I'm keyed in on.
     
    First, let's start with the good. Kyle Gibson has been one of the best storylines for the Minnesota Twins this spring. Across seven starts, he's compiled 28.1 IP worth of work, and owns a 1.59 ERA. Although the sinkerballer has just 19 strikeouts, he's only issued five free passes, and has been incredibly efficient.
     
    Coming off of his worst year as a major leaguer, Gibson has some late breakout appeal. He posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 3.96 FIP in 2015, and there was some real steam behind him being a star performer a season ago. Unfortunately that never got off the ground, and while defense hurt him, he didn't help himself much either.
     
    Although spring numbers can be taken with a very small grain of salt, he's looked like a man on a mission. Gibson has been efficient, calculated, and very, very good. I don't want to suggest that it's because of his Florida performance that causes him to breakout, but a very good outfield should help him, and this could be the year we see Kyle Gibson look like the Twins former top pitching prospect was expected to perform.
     
    Now, somewhere in the middle ground, we find Jose Berrios. Recently he was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. I can understand that he wasn't ramped up after pitching (or not pitching enough) in the World Baseball Classic. However, if he was truly in play for the 5th starter spot, he could have easily been stretched out for 80 pitches by the time his first outing rolled around. The more I thought about the decision, the more frustration I found myself having.
     
    Berrios is headed back to Triple-A again, and he'll be making his 31st start there, as parts of three major stints. For a top pitching prospect that's really blocked by no one, it's a relatively unprecedented move. Minnesota has a hopeful Phil Hughes, and an unnecessary Hector Santiago in their rotation. If the latter ended up bouncing Berrios, that's an unfortunate development.
     
    At some point, the command has to develop for Berrios, and if Minnesota believes he's better off not working with Neil Allen every day, that's probably an indictment of their big league pitching coach. While I can understand the legitimacy of the reasoning behind his optioning, the optics behind it don't look good, and the Twins again decided against giving a high ceiling arm an opportunity.
     
    Rounding out the trio is a situation that absolutely revolves around high ceilings. In the bullpen, I've often suggested the need to be either creative or good. As Minnesota heads north, it doesn't appear their seven relievers will be either of those things. In my last roster projection, I tabbed the group as being Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Wimmers, Haley, Breslow, and Rogers. Of that group, you could probably tab Pressly as good, with creative going to Rogers.
     
    Over the offseason, the Twins knew relief pitching was an issue for them. Instead of throwing more money than maybe a player was worth at names like Romo, Holland, Feliz, or any number of others, they settled on one veteran While Matt Belisle has proved serviceable of late, he wasn't going to be near the top of anyone's relief help list. They enlisted Craig Breslow as a veteran who's reinvented himself, but even he was brought in on a minor league deal.
     
    When the dust settled, Minnesota did nothing to greatly improve its pen from outside. Regardless of the fact that veteran relievers can be had easily on one-year deals (and flipped just as easily) Minnesota stood pat. Then they doubled down on the move by suggesting that none of J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, or Nick Burdi were ready for the big time.
     
    It's absolutely fair to have reservations about those prospects, but if your pen isn't going to be good, giving them run is far from a bad ask. There was really nothing determined this spring that the Twins didn't already know on those prospects either, so the idea that they were on the outside looking in with no real talented veterans above them is a bit disheartening.
     
    At the end of the day, the Twins are going to have to navigate some tough situations on the mound. The rotation remains relatively unchanged, and while Berrios can breathe life into it at some point, Santiago may be sucking it out for a while. Kyle Gibson could be on the verge of a breakthrough, and Paul Molitor desperately needs him to do so. In the pen, the lack of managerial acumen Molitor showed last season, combined with hit or miss arms, Minnesota could be looking at more blown leads than they care to admit to.
     
    Baseball is a game of pitching and hitting, and if you don't have the former, the latter doesn't matter much. The Twins may win one, they're likely going to lose one of these storylines, and well, Jose, it rains...
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
×
×
  • Create New...