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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are, just like the 26 other major league teams, watching the final four postseason clubs compete for a World Series victory. Unlike each and every one of those teams however, the hometown club may have just made the move of the offseason. John Manuel, former Editor in Chief for Baseball America, is now a Pro Scout for the Derek Falvey regime (or he will be as of November 1).
     
    You don't know who John Manuel is you say? Well then, let me introduce you. When it comes to great baseball minds, especially those plugged in among prospects, there isn't a better tier than the one Manuel is on. This man is more connected throughout the game than is even possible to explain. Baseball America has long been the premier outlet for all things prospecting, and it's because of his leadership that the website has cultivated such strong sources and content over the years.
     
    As Manuel noted himself in his post on Facebook, he's watched previous staffers join other organizations, and he's given Falvey plenty of recommendations over the years. This time however, it was his turn, and he wanted to join the team. At a Baseball Prospectus event this summer, Thad Levine talked of how the Twins may not outspend other clubs on free agents, but they'll utilize their resources to make sure they have the best internal team in place. We've already seen exciting turnover in the front office, but it probably doesn't get any better than Manuel.
     
    The Twins find themselves at an incredibly important time in the history of the franchise. With arguably the greatest assembly of youth and veteran talent since they last won a World Series, this team is poised to go place. Needing to be supplemented from outside with a few key pieces, as well as best utilizing a still strong farm system, the arrow should be pointing straight up. As Manuel enters, his goal will not only be to continue to identify those players to bring into the organization, but the ones that make sense to part with or advance other areas.
     
    Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins exceeded expectations the first year. The volatility of youth played out in that the team returned to a more realistic version of itself, as opposed to the 103 loss season a year prior. Now with more experience and growth under their belts as a whole, and the AL Central opening up to a certain extent, Minnesota should be on everyones radar going forward. It is in this offseason, that the ball will begin rolling to suggest what is next to come for the organization.
     
    If the hiring of John Manuel is any indication of what's to come, you should bet that this Twins club is in incredibly good hands. We may not see a deal offered to Yu Darvish this winter, or Bryce Harper next, but the understanding that those influencing decisions in the front office is the best it's ever been should be a given. For the first time in what may seem like the club's history, Minnesota has transformed itself into a forward thinking, and cutting edge organization, and that should absolutely fire you up.
     
    Welcome aboard John Manuel, and we look forward to watching you get to work.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    In looking back to some of the things I wrote about Derek Falvey and Thad Levine upon being hired last fall, I stumbled upon a piece that focused on Twins acquisitions. Namely, how well does Minnesota utilize the trade market, and does it work in their favor. You can read that piece here, but the conclusion was that Terry Ryan left plenty to be desired on that front. A year in, Falvey is providing reason for excitement.
     
    Over the course of 2017, the Twins found themselves in a unique position and made a couple of swaps. Despite being positioned well above expectations, they found themselves fading at the deadline and moved some key players as sellers. As they rallied down the stretch and made the Wild Card game, the addition of young talent in the organization should only further the group as a whole in the future.
     
    This season, Falvey sent Brandon Kintzler, John Ryan Murphy, and Huascar Ynoa out. The Ynoa move brought in Jaime Garcia for one start, prior to flipping him to the New York Yankees. The returns included strong prospects such as Zack Littell, Tyler Watson, and Gabriel Ynoa. A Triple-A, and big league ready, pitcher was included in Dietrich Enns, and Minnesota even nabbed some international bonus money. It's one thing to grade these deals on their own, but I think the more important note is what they as a whole say about Falvey.
     
    First and foremost, the new front office was willing to go above and beyond to make sure the return benefitted them. In dealing for Jaime Garcia, the Twins gave up little in Ynoa because they were able to assume the bulk of the veteran starter's salary. They then essentially bought Littell from the Yankees by not sending any of Garcia's money with him. Falvey was able to orchestrate a set of moves that benefitted the organization in one of their greatest deficiencies (starting pitching) and the only cost was a monetary value.
     
    The other standout for me was the acquisition of Gabriel Moya. Despite not being a flamethrower or an overpowering reliever, Moya's numbers at Double-A in 2017 were exceptional. John Ryan Murphy had no place in Minnesota, and had simply become a remnant of how bad the swap for Aaron Hicks really was. Falvey was able to acquire Moya, a player of value and need, in exchange for a guy that served no benefit to the organization going forward.
     
    Heading into this offseason and beyond, it will be through adept trade acquisitions that Falvey and Levine can make their mark. While the Twins farm system isn't what it was, it is rich in certain areas, and that allows for the organization to use prospects as assets. There was a time that Terry Ryan either didn't part with those types of pieces, or you'd prefer he didn't in fear of the return. With the Twins positioned for a lengthened period of success, supplementing the big league roster is a must. That will come from both free agency as well as trades, and the gentlemen at the helm seem more than capable.
     
    If there's a name I'd watch out for over the winter, it's probably Nick Gordon. With Royce Lewis in the system, and Wander Javier blossoming, shortstop may be among Minnesota's best area on the farm. Gordon alone isn't going to command top tier pitching, but he could be packaged along with other pieces to help the Twins in a different way than simply debuting on the roster.
     
    Given baseball being an uncapped sport, teams are allowed to spend to their heart's content. That means organizations like Minnesota, without a massive TV deal, will always find it hard to play in the upper echelon of bankroll. Knowing what internal assets you posses, and how to use them, is going to be huge for the organization moving forward. It's been a very small sample size thus far, but there's nothing to suggest a cause for concern here.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Minnesota Twins now finished with both the regular and postseason portions of their 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's fair to look back on the year that was. This group matured, and turned around a catastrophic 2016 effort to once again give steam to a young team going places. It was a group effort, but breaking down individual performances is a must as well.
    In order to provide some brevity, we'll make this a three part series. Today, grades will be handed out to the starting pitching. Monday we looked at the offense, Tuesday was the starting pitching and today concludes with the relief group. In 2017, Minnesota had 26 different pitchers make relief appearances. We're going to analyze eight, which is the amount that the Twins generally had at their disposal over the course of the year.
    All of the groundwork is out of the way, let's get into it.
     
    Tyler Duffey C
     
    After working solely as a starter in his first two big league seasons, Duffey made 56 appearances in 2017 out of the bullpen. He pitched just over half (71.0) of his total innings from a year ago (133.0). In relief, the expectation is that the velocity plays up some, with the hope that the strikeout numbers climb as well.
     
    Duffey picked up a mph (92.3) on his fastball, and just under one more K/9 (8.5) this season. Despite having a strong 3.72 FIP, he finished with a mediocre 4.94 ERA. Giving up 10.0 H/9, Duffey simply allowed too many batters to reach. He had 10 appearances allowing at least 2 runs, and didn't do much to move the needle for Minnesota. I think he fits better in the pen going forward, but the hope has to be that he trends back towards his dominating college self.
     
    Taylor Rogers B
     
    On the season as a whole, Rogers has some strong numbers with a few underlying issues. The 3.07 ERA is great, but he dipped down to 7.9 K/9 and allowed 3.4 BB/9. On top of that, his FIP climbed to 4.09. After being lights out in the first half, Paul Molitor continued to ride him against righties and found the youngster getting exposed.
     
    Rogers hasn't really ever been great against righties, and that should be the expectation going forward. He's serviceable in that scenario, but is a true weapon against left-handed batters. If used properly, and maybe a bit less often, Rogers should be a solid middle-to-high leverage option for Minnesota.
     
    Matt Belisle B
     
    One April 26, Belisle made his 10th appearance of the season. Following a 5 run blowup, he owned a 7.00 ERA. From there on, he pitched another 51.1 innings to the tune of a 3.51 ERA allowing just a .646 OPS against. Minnesota installed him as the closer, and he recorded nine saves down the stretch. For the first time since 2010, Belisle cracked the 8.0 K/9 (8.1) mark.
     
    While he's hardly anything flashy, and wasn't suited for the closer role, Belisle came through on the one-year deal Minnesota handed him. A free agent again going into 2018, Minnesota could look at bringing him back. He's not going to push the needle much, but Belisle showed he had enough left in the tank for his age-37 season.
     
    Ryan Pressly C
     
    Expected to be one of the best pieces in the Twins pen this year, Ryan Pressly stumbled a few times. The 1.5 HR/9 was a career worst, and they generally seemed to come at the worst times. Owning among the highest velocity in the Twins pen, Minnesota needs Pressly to be on his game more often going forward.
     
    The strikeouts were there (9.0 K/9) and the walk numbers didn't jump off the page. Pressly experienced a couple demotions on the year, and while it wasn't a great campaign as a whole, he ended on a solid note. In 2018, Molitor will need the fireballer to return to a lockdown option in the late innings.
     
    Trevor Hildenberger A
     
    If you were unaware of how good Hildenberger could be, you probably weren't reading the right places. With strong minor league numbers throughout his career, he was the often left out name among the group including Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The sidearmer isn't a high velocity guy, but it is far from just a gimmick as well.
     
    Hildenberger worked his way into the late innings for Molitor and rewarded the club nicely. A 9.4 K/9 with a 1.3 BB/9 in his debut season was plenty nice to see. The 3.21 ERA has room to go down next year, and he should be a lock as a go-to guy going forward.
     
    Buddy Boshers D+
     
    Coming out of nowhere a year ago, Boshers did enough to hold on throughout the season. He worked virtually the same amount this season, but took steps backwards everywhere. Less strikeouts, more walks, terrible FIP, and allowed way too many homers.
     
    As a lefty killer, Boshers was serviceable enough. The .655 OPS against versus lefties got him through the year, but there's other guys that can do that job, and do it better. Molitor does have a level of comfort with him it seems, but I'd be shocked if he has a role in 2018.
     
    Alan Busenitz B+
     
    It took a while for Molitor to take off the training wheels, but across 31.2 IP, the lone standing return for Alex Meyer turned out to be a great pickup for Minnesota. Busenitz owned a 1.99 ERA but did have some suspect areas as well. You'd like to see more than 6.5 K/9, and the 1.1 HR/9 isn't ideal either. That said, Booze throws heat, and has the looks of an impact arm in relief.
     
    There shouldn't be much doubt that Busenitz needs to be penciled into the Twins 2018 Opening Day relief corps. He could begin in a middle relief role and push for more high-leverage work as the season goes on. I'd like to see him trend up a bit more across the board, but in his debut, there's a lot to like here.
     
    Dillon Gee B+
     
    Having spent arguably too much time in the minors prior to being promoted to the active roster, Gee was huge for Molitor and the Twins in 2017. As a reliever, he worked 33.1 IP and compiled a 1.35 ERA. The strikeout numbers were serviceable at 7.6 K/9, and he limited walks, Gee is never going to be a lockdown guy as a starter or reliever, but he was the best long reliever Minnesota has had in quite some time.
     
    Going into next season, the Twins should be adding a handful of impact relief arms. Guys that can push velocity and generate strikeouts is a must for this group. Having Gee back there to pick up the pieces after short starts is a good decision though, and if he can replicate his 2017, that's a really nice asset.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Minnesota Twins now finished with both the regular and postseason portions of their 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's fair to look back on the year that was. This group matured, and turned around a catastrophic 2016 effort to once again give steam to a young team going places. It was a group effort, but breaking down individual performances is a must as well.
     
    In order to provide some brevity, we'll make this a three part series. Today, grades will be handed out to the starting pitching. Monday we looked at the offense, and Wednesday will conclude with the relief group. While the Twins got starts from a ridiculous amount of different arms (16), this will focus on the five that turned in the most work.
    All of the groundwork is out of the way, let's get into it.
     
    Ervin Santana A
     
    Over the course of the year, there wasn't much more of a steadying presence on the mound than that of Ervin Santana. He started strong out of the gates, and finished well down the stretch. There was a bit of a lull in the middle, but the final numbers resulted in a 3.28 ERA along with a 7.1 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9.
     
    Santana wasn't flashy, and he's never been as much, but his repertoire allowed for consistent production. For the bulk of the year, his slider had good bite, and he was able to keep opposing hitters at bay. Homers once again were an issue for him, but there's little reason not to feel good about Santana taking the mound for another 30-plus starts with Minnesota in 2018.
     
    Kyle Gibson C+
     
    More than any other starter for the Twins, it was a tale of two seasons for Gibson. He was demoted to Triple-A Rochester, and cast off for Jaime Garcia at one point. Through his first 16 starts of 2017, he owned a terrible 6.31 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .934 OPS off of him. After making some tweaks, mid-July began a new narrative. Over his final 13 starts, Gibson owned a 3.76 ERA and allowed just a .701 OPS to opposing hitters.
     
    For years, Twins fans (as well as the front office) have hoped Gibson would round out into the first round selection he was taken as. A sinkerballer with the ability to keep the ball in the yard, the hope was that Gibson would be a ground ball machine that doesn't give up much of anything. That hasn't been the case thus far, but the second half of 2017 provides plenty of reason for excitement. Gibson will be tendered a new deal this offseason, and hoping he can be a rotation fixture in 2018 is a good place to be.
     
    Jose Berrios B+
     
    With Berrios, the Twins saw growth but also the volatility of young arms. Posting a 3.89 ERA on the year, the Puerto Rican native has to feel good about how his season went. With an 8.6 K/9, he flashed the ability to strike out plenty of big league hitters. There were a lot of high points, and only a few clunkers mixed in.
     
    Coming off a tough showing his rookie year, Berrios established himself a a big league difference maker this season. Going into 2018, it's a certainty that he's a lock for the Minnesota rotation, and it will be interesting to watch him push his ceiling. He has flashed true ace ability, and Minnesota desperately needs that trend to continue. Another step forward for Berrios a year from now, could have him entering some end of season award discussions.
     
    Adalberto Mejia C
     
    When acquired from the Giants in exchange for Eduardo Nunez, the Twins had to be thrilled getting a capable big league arm. Mejia had began to appear on top 100 prospect lists, and he looked the part of a back-end big league starter. Across 21 outings this season, a 4.50 ERA was indicative of being virtually who he was billed to be.
     
    Mejia isn't flashy by any means, and while he can strike batters out (7.8 K/9), he also needs to work on limiting free passes (4.0 BB/9). Getting deep in games was a struggle for him this season, and that's going to need to be a focus going into 2018. Pitch economy, as well as command are areas for growth. He'll be fighting among a group of options to round out the rotation a year from now.
     
    Bartolo Colon C-
     
    Although the long time veteran's 5.18 ERA is anything but exciting on paper, it was such a necessary addition for Minnesota. Picked up from Atlanta after a dismal start to the year, Colon provided a leverl of certainty for the Twins. He found a better defense to help him out, and continued to be a command artist in his elder years (1.7 BB/9).
     
    It sounds like Colon wants to pitch again next season at age 45. He's survived this long simply by throwing strikes, and that's something the Twins needed from a fifth guy when he stepped in. I can't imagine a scenario in which he's back with the organization to start next season, but he showed that he still has a little more to give, and he helped the Twins down the stretch. It was rarely pretty, but given what the other 11 guys who made starts for Paul Molitor's squad this year did, it was relatively effective.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    With the dust still settling on the Wild Card loss to the New York Yankees, it's probably early for some to be thinking about the offseason for the Twins. That being said, we've officially entered that portion of the program, and this will be the first true offseason for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to tip their hand.
     
    A year ago, Falvey and Levine were new to the organization, and looking to evaluate more than they sought out making waves. Additions came in the form of low risk, low reward types, while the current roster was viewed under a microscope. As we've seen towards the end of the 2017 schedule, internal decisions have been put in process, and there's been a handful of shakeups throughout the organization.
     
    Looking towards the 2018 season, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a good place. The AL Central, aside from the Cleveland Indians, should be in the doldrums. Another playoff berth should be the expectation, and challenging for the division could be a realistic thought with some well timed additions. So, in bolstering the 25 man roster, here's five acquisitions the Twins should be keen on making.
     
    Starting Pitching x 2
     
    There's been more than enough talk of the Twins needing an ace. That couldn't be more true, but in reality, that's a need of virtually every team in baseball. Ace's don't grow on trees, and when they hit the market (which is rare), everyone jumps at acquiring them. Yu Darvish would be more than a nice piece for Minnesota, and the Levine connection is there, but Minnesota simply isn't going to be able to compete with other suitors. I'd imagine both Los Angeles and Texas will be at the top of his list, and that's a tough duo to crack.
     
    More realistically, the Twins adding capable middle-of-the-rotation starters makes a ton of sense. Hector Santiago is gone and bringing in more back end fodder like that doesn't do anything for the growth of the club. Names like Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood would be near the top of my list. Adding two pitchers of that ability gives the Twins four set starters by including Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana. That makes for a good amount of depth competing for the final spot, and puts the organization in a much better place on the mound.
     
    Relief Pitching x 2
     
    I'm generally not a fan of spending on relievers. There's so much uncertainty year over year, and most of the time, big money deals in the pen can flame out. The reality for the Twins however, is that they lack strikeout arms in the bullpen. Aside from Ryan Pressly, there isn't much velocity among the Twins relief corps, and not being able to get timely strikeouts is a problem. I'm a believer in the young arms Minnesota has in the system, but they've been stalled for a myriad of reasons. It's time to bolster that group from outside.
     
    Getting some real velocity for the Twins to call upon in the late innings is a must. If Minnesota is going to hand out a couple of deals in the $7-10 million range, I'd be more than ok seeing that come in relief. Names like Addison Reed or Bryan Shaw would be at the top of my list, with some consideration for a Jake McGee or Luke Greggerson type. The reality is the more games the Twins can close out late, the better off they'll be a year from now. The pen has been as much a deficiency as the starting pitching has, and it's time to rectify both.
     
    Right-handed bat x 1
     
    Throughout the course of the season, one of the Twins greatest issues on offense was the lack of another right-handed power bat. While Robbie Grossman filled in nicely at DH, he leaves plenty to be desired. The reality is, his greatest asset at the plate is his ability to work counts and draw walks. There's a lot more potential in a right handed power bat that Minnesota left on the table. Down the stretch, having that at your disposal would've been a nice boost for the club.
     
    Going forward, there is a little reason to be cautious here as Miguel Sano likely won't play the field forever. When he does have to shift to a full time DH role, making sure any player brought in also has a position is a big deal. That being said, the pipe dream would probably be Carlos Santana. He's a plus defender at first base, a switch hitter, and brings plenty of pop. From there, someone like Mitch Moreland may be a fit as well. There was a good deal of interest in Mike Napoli last offseason, but that appears to have been a bullet dodged.
     
    I'd be far from surprised if the Twins aren't active on both the free agent market as well as the trade front this offseason. Derek Falvey has displayed a keen ability to identify talent, and this club is very close to making that next step. Allowing the 25 man roster to be boosted with some key additions could be more than enough to get this club over the hump. For the first time in years, the Twins will see a new regime have their way with the offseason process, and that's something that should absolutely be welcomed.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Brian Dozier ambushed a 23 year old starter in over his head on Tuesday night in the Bronx. As the first batter of the game, the Minnesota Twins second basemen sent a towering pop up into the left field bleachers. A feat only possible in the Cracker Jack box that is Yankee Stadium, the good guys jumped to an early lead. After an Eddie Rosario homer, the Twins had staked themselves to a three run lead in the first inning, and then the end came.
     
    There's really no point in rehashing what took place in the one-game Wild Card for the Twins. You lived it, I lived it, and we find ourselves here, with another loss to the dreaded Yankees. A recap serves little purpose in this space, but instead, let's take a look at where it all went wrong:
     
    Squandered Opportunity
     
    Following the three-run lead, which was nice enough, Minnesota failed to tack on. After knocking Severino out of the game recording just one out, the Twins left runners on second and third with neither of them scoring. Over the course of the game as a whole, hitting with runners in scoring position was a problem for the Twins. Tacking on runs against a strong Yankees lineup was a must going into the contest, and it was a place the club consistently fell short.
     
    Veteran Presence
     
    In the lead up to the game, I suggested numerous times that Severino was a welcomed foe due to his age. At 23, that was a huge moment, and the Twins capitalized off of that fact. What wasn't anticipated, is that Ervin Santana would crumble as well. Despite being a big league vet, he pitched scared and failed to attack any opposing batters. While his slider was anything but sharp, he nibbled for the entirety of the two innings he gave Minnesota.
     
    Needing to respond to his team's hot start with a zero, Santana promptly coughed up the lead in the bottom half of the inning. Allowing Yankee hitters to take him deep in counts, Santana's first went walk, single, pop out, home run. Across 64 pitches, Santana threw just 35 strikes. There was an unshakeable feeling of a guy on the mound pitching scared. Despite having a lead, Santana refused to attack opposing hitters, and New York had their way with him dictating at bats. It was as bad of a performance as we've seen from Santana in years.
     
    Lineup Black Hole
     
    Over the second half of the season, the Twins have been among the best run scoring teams in baseball. That's true in part because they've consistently had a next man up attitude, and put forth solid at bats to keep the line moving. At the bottom of the lineup, that couldn't have been further from the truth during the Wild Card game.
     
    In their seven combined at bats, both Jason Castro and Robbie Grossman gave the Twins zero competitive offerings. Castro flailed at three strikeout pitches out of the zone, while Grossman whiffed three times on his own. Neither is an offensive juggernaut, but the former should be expected to battle, while the latter's greatest asset is his on-base prowess. Each time they stepped in the box, both Castro and Grossman were nonexistent for Minnesota.
     
    Judge Rises
     
    Before the game, I opined that two things needed to happen for the Twins to win this game. Severino needed to leave with New York trailing, and Aaron Judge could not go deep. Minnesota took care of the first half, but Jose Berrios allowed Judge to make his mark.
     
    While it's maybe not fair to say they lose if Judge homers, the momentum swing that carries with it does Paul Molitor's squad no favors. In reality, the three-run homer was back breaking, but even if it had been a one-run shot in the first, Judge brings out the crazy in that stadium. The crowd definitely rides the wave of each Aaron Judge at bat, and letting them have that moment was never going to be a winning proposition.
     
    There's a few other things to nitpick at. I wasn't a fan of Molitor removing Santana in the 3rd inning. Having settled down some, I would've seen what he could give you, at least until a runner reach, in the next frame. That being said however, the Twins did themselves no favors to keep this game in check. After taking the bull by the horns, they promptly allowed it to walk away.
     
    While veterans like Santana, Castro, and Grossman failed to help the home nine on this night, it was some of the youngsters in the lineup that came up biggest. Going into 2018, this team will continue to turn over to it's rising stars, and continuing to pair them with other big league talent should only pay dividends.
     
    Tuesday night in New York was a sad, but all too often realized, way to end what was a great 2017 season. With the book closed here though, it's time to begin writing a new story.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Following his one-out appearance on September 30, Glen Perkins found himself in tears. He came on to throw three pitches in the Minnesota Twins 161st game of the season. Asking Kennys Vargas for the ball as he walked off the diamond, Perkins likely knew the answer to the question Twins Territorians found themselves wondering, "Is this it?" As the club heads to the Wild Card game against the New York Yankees, Perkins isn't on the roster, but this game is as much for him as it is anyone.
     
    Sitting at his locker and discussing the moment with Perkins, I couldn't help but to latch onto the comment he made about his contributions this season. The former closer suggested that he "wasn't really a part of this" and while that may be true in the literal sense, it couldn't be more false in the grand scheme of things. For the past 12 years, Minnesota Twins baseball has been as much about Glen Perkins as he has been about it. As Paul Molitor takes this 25 man group into the Bronx, the moment is for you too Glen.
     
    A first round draft pick out of the University of Minnesota in 2004, Perkins made his debut just 2 years later. Working as a starter through his first three big league seasons, he didn't find his footing in the organization until a shift to the bullpen brought out his true colors.
     
    From 2011-2015, Perkins pitched over 313 innings in relief for Minnesota. He compiled a 2.84 ERA across that span, and owned a solid 9.8 K/9 to go with a 2.1 BB/9. Taking over as closer in 2012, he compiled 118 saves, putting his career mark at 120. That number is good enough for 3rd in Twins history, and puts him behind only Joe Nathan and Rick Aguilera. The hometown kid had gone from failed starter, to solid reliever, and eventually one of the best closers in team history.
     
    For all of Perkins' accolades on the field though, it's almost equally fair to define him by his career off of it. A true Minnesotan in every sense of the definition, Perkins embraced the state as much as humanly possible. Both he and his wife Alisha have been absolute pillars in the community, and have been involved in many more aspects than simply the game of baseball. Both have displayed giving hearts and have worn their emotions for the organization and the state on their sleeves.
     
    Over the years, we've gotten to see so many sides of the Twins man in the 9th. From the emotion of closing out a big game, to the candidness on the radio or a postgame interview, Perkins has been as real as it gets. I can't imagine that no matter what is next, we've seen the end of what contributions Glen Perkins has for Twins Territory. Whether it be more Fifteen's 5 K's or amazing Twitter interactions, I think we can count on plenty more from someone who's seemingly always been about others first.
     
    So, when the Twins take the field at Yankee Stadium for the American League Wild Card, Glen Perkins won't be trotting out to the bullpen. That fact changes nothing however, this is absolutely about him too. This is about a ballplayer that worked himself back from a devastating surgery to pitch at the highest level. It's about a hurler that stopped at nothing to contribute for this club. Heck, it's about a man that wanted nothing more than to give every last ounce of himself to this game, and with that in mind, it's fair to say all of that has been accomplished.
     
    We won't hear his closer music any time soon, but Glen Perkins this game is as much for you as it is anyone else. On behalf of Twins Territory, than you for your hard work and dedication to return for this club, and thank you for 12 years of some really incredible baseball. No matter what is next, thank you for everything that has already been.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    In April, no one expected the Minnesota Twins to be here. Even the loftiest of expectations had this club somewhere around 80 wins and simply keeping things interesting. On September 27, 2017 however, the Twins punched their ticket to the Postseason. Reflecting on that, and the season that has been, only invokes a certain level of awe.
     
    Coming off 103 losses, the Twins are the first team ever to go from losing 100 or more games only to make the playoffs the following season. That means, not only did the organization add the number one overall pick in Royce Lewis this year, but they've also played meaningful baseball for the entirety of the schedule. While this group was expected to make waves, the thought was that 2018 looked like the opportune time for the window to open.
     
    Don't tell guys like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, or Eddie Rosario that they weren't supposed to be here yet however. That trio had went through ups and downs this year, eventually leading to breakout seasons, and ignited the bats on any given night. Joe Mauer wasn't supposed to flash like his old self, and there were questions as to whether or not Brian Dozier would even be in Minnesota this season. Suggesting everything happens for a reason is about as simplistic as it gets. For now though, it works.
     
    On Tuesday October 3, Paul Molitor will field a playoff team for Minnesota. That will be the first time the Twins organization can say that since October 9, 2010. While they'll have a monumental task ahead of them, knocking off the Yankees on the road, the culmination of all the excitement suggest we've made it. The appointment TV, tense at bats, and champagne popping have all been the highlights of the last month or so in Twins Territory.
     
    Count the Twins out against the mighty Yankees if you must, but I can assure you this group doesn't care about narratives. Youth or veterans, these guys could care less about what the Twins of yesteryear carved out. They'll go into New York with more than a fighting chance, and in a one game scenario, anything is bound to happen.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    It would be beyond silly to suggest that the Minnesota Twins lineup is better with Miguel Sano not in it. However, since the hulking third basemen last played on August 19, Minnesota has actually seen an increase in run production. Paul Molitor's club has risen to postseason play without one of their best players, and it's interesting to dive into how that happened.
     
    On August 19, the Twins were averaging 4.67 runs per game (good enough for 17th in MLB). Fast forward to today, and Minnesota is 4th in baseball averaging 5.08 runs per game. In the 35 games since August 19, they've scored double-digit runs on 10 different occasions. In the month of September alone, despite being just two games over .500, they've posted a +41 run differential. In other words, the Twins have been ambushing opposing pitchers for over a month now.
     
    When in the lineup, Miguel Sano generally he's batted 3rd or 4th. Since he's been out, that role has been given to a group consisting of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, and Eddie Rosario. While none of those players are the home run threat that Sano is, they've each shouldered the load as an integral run producing fixture for the Twins.
     
    Sano's season will end with 111 games played. He has a .267/.365/.870 slash line. A three true outcomes player, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 60.6% of his plate appearances. While the home run numbers increased marginally from 2016, his strikeout rate has jumped off the page from his 80 game debut in 2015. If we're looking for something to point to as reason for the Twins additional run production, that could be it.
     
    To date, Sano owns a 35.8% strikeout rate. The guys who've filled in for him own totals of 29.2% (Buxton), 14.6% (Polanco), 19.5% (Escobar), and 17.8% (Rosario). Even the highest mark of the group is more than a 5% decrease from where Sano was at, and it all points towards more balls being put in play. Despite not having the same power numbers, run production has been aided by contact rates that surpass Sano's.
     
    Again, none of this is to suggest the Twins are better off without Sano in their lineup. While the Minnesota third basemen has been better this year than in 2016, trending more towards his 2015 debut would be ideal. In 80 games back in 2015, Sano drew 53 walks while striking out just 119 times. In 2017, he needed 111 games to draw 54 walks, but struck out 170 times. His contact rate is actually up (62.4%) from 2015 (60.9%), but the swinging strike rate has jumped to a career worst 18.1%.
     
    Going into the postseason, it's probably not realistic to expect any sort of a contribution from the slugger. Had his leg injury healed to the point of him being able to take at bats, a pinch hit scenario could be interesting, and pose a problem for opposing pitchers. As things stand however, he'll be unavailable, and the Twins will continue to turn to a group of non-traditional middle-of-the-order hitters.
     
    It shouldn't be overlooked that the fill-ins have flashed power of their own. Rosario may hit 30 homers, Escobar has 20, Buxton is at 16, and Polanco has added 12 of his own. Instead of being power, a free base, or nothing however, the group has made opposing pitchers attack the heart of the Twins lineup differently. Over the past month, it's worked better than anyone could've imagined, and Minnesota is going to have a postseason berth to show for it.
     
    When Paul Molitor takes this group to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, he won't have his club's version of Miguel Sano in the lineup. That being said, if a New York pitcher thinks they're getting a break with the Minnesota 3-4-5 trio, they'll be sadly mistaken.
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into 2017, the Minnesota Twins were entering uncharted waters. A new front office was at the helm, and the captain of the dugout was managing for his life. Now, as the season rolls towards a conclusion, lots has changed but plenty still remains unknown. Without a new contract in place for 2018, it's time to begin wondering about the future of Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins.
     
    Personally, I'm inclined to suggest that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine move on. While Molitor has been an integral part of the organization for many years, his value as a manager has never seemed anything but average at best. At times, it's seemed to be a struggle for him to relate to youth (which is the current lifeblood of the 25 man), and in game managerial decisions have been passable at best. Going forward, I'd hardly be disappointed in seeing the new regime bring in their guy, with the hopes of them helping the organization reach new heights.
     
    Taking a step back however, and viewing things from what may (or is likely to) happen, who heads the Twins active roster in 2018 is a bit more confusing. There's plenty of reason to believe that Molitor will garner (and maybe even win) a handful Manager of the Year votes. The expectation from a national sense was that the Twins should be terrible. I'd argue that was misguided, and 2016 was more a reflection of the volatility that is young players. Minnesota wasn't expected to be a playoff team in 2017, but even a 90 loss season seemed laughable from the outset.
     
    So, with Molitor's team positioned for a serious run at the 2nd Wild Card, it's fair to include him among the best manager's in the American League for 2017. He'll face stiff competition for the award in the form of both Terry Francona and A.J. Hinch. The Angels Mike Scioscia should get consideration as well, given that roster probably had even less talent than the Twins, and they have found a way to stay afloat as well. Whether the Twins skipper takes home hardware or not, the inclusion among the conversation only clouds the future further.
     
    Let's operate under the assumption that Minnesota makes the playoffs and Molitor wins the award. In this scenario, the Twins manager would generate what should be quantified as two victories. In the front office though, it will be interesting to see what level of weight that holds. Recently fired Doug Mientkiewicz was produced winners throughout the minor leagues, and the message there screams of a guy that didn't fit the direction of the club going forward. At the highest level, it's probably a bit more difficult to can a manager that would have accomplished so much. Suggesting it's out of the realm of possibility isn't something I'm prepared to do, but you'd have to imagine the Twins brass better be well prepared for an explanation.
     
    Should we assume Molitor is retained, whether on a single-year deal or a multi-year extension, there's a few conversations I think Falvey and Levine would be inclined to have with their skipper. Focusing on those of integral importance, here'
    s a brief list:
    Bullpen usage- Over the course of his tenure as Twins manager, Molitor has made more than his fair share of head scratching relief decisions. Whether playing into odd splits, relying on a guy too far, or over exposing a specific arm, there's plenty of room for growth here. It may be micromanaging to suggest a checks and balances system, but Paul clearly could use some prodding in more than a handful of relief situations.
    Bunt deployment- Specifically the sacrifice bunt. Over the course of 2017, bunting has become more prevalent for the Twins than at any point I can recall previously. Whether having your cleanup hitter (regardless of who it is) drop down a sacrifice, or living by it in general, it's run way too rampant among a strong lineup. Minnesota has shown an ability to score runs, and a forward thinking front office can't be please with the general willingness to surrender free outs.
    Relation to youth- This has been somewhat curbed by the additions of help to his coaching staff. At times in his first two seasons, it seemed Molitor was quick to wash his hands of a player. When struggles arose for a young player, they were quickly jettisoned back to the farm, and growth at the highest level was rarely achieved. Knowing that it's on the backs of a youth movement that Minnesota regains its prominence among the AL Central, Molitor will have to commit to uplifting and utilizing players without a significant track record.
    Adaptation of numbers- Admittedly, I have no idea what level of value sabermetrics play in a game by game basis for Molitor or the Twins. That said, it's become apparent that Falvey and Levine put a great deal of stock in numbers. Minnesota is committing to winning off the field by developing a greater Baseball Analytics department, and the goal would seemingly be to implement those ideas on the field. Being an elder statesmen of the game, that's something that Molitor will have to be open to, and utilize.

    At the end of the day, I'd suggest with near certainty that missing the playoffs results in Molitor being let go. A Wild Card exit probably also gets him fired, and even a Divisional Series defeat could see him walking through the door. Things become a bit more complicated if he's given the award (though I think regardless he's behind Francona), but as we saw with Mientkiewicz, the new front office has a direct plan. It may be nice to see a fresh face, maybe someone in the vein of Sandy Alomar Jr., but there's little to suggest that a drastic difference follows a change as well. No matter what the Twins do for their skipper in 2018, I'd imagine there will be more of a front office reflection on the field, and that's something I can get behind.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    On September 18, 2017 Byron Buxton owns a .258/.320/.430 slash line for the Minnesota Twins. While there's little to write home about a .749 OPS, it's well past time to take note of what the hometown squad's centerfielder is doing. Despite a September surge in 2016, we haven't seen anything like this from Buxton before, and he's already vaulting himself into the conversation of the best the Twins have ever seen.
     
    Looking at his 2017 as a whole, it's easily apparent that everything has been watered down due to such a slow start. What's less apparent without digging under the hood, is just how incredible he's been since. Rather than getting words in the way, let's allow the numbers to speak for themselves:
    Since May 14: 99 G .284/.341/.481
    Since the All Star Break (July 14): 46 G .323/.369/.622
    Since August 6th: 40 G .333/.375/.653

    What we see here, is an incredible surge over a relatively decent sample size. Extrapolating Buxton's numbers from the All Star Break over 162 games, we arrive at 21 doubles, 18 triples, 39 homers, 106 RBI, and 35 stolen bases. In other words, Buxton sustaining a 46 game second half over the course of a full season has his walking away with an MVP award (and that's even before considering his defense).
     
    While it's fair to still hold out for a little more of a sustained sample, this isn't simply a replication of a September 2016 performance against watered down competition. Buxton has been raking against good pitchers, across multiple scenarios, for multiple months. Over the course of 2017, working with new hitting coach James Rowson, the Twins centerfielder rebuilt his swing at the big league level while never taking a trip back to Triple-A. The long and short of Buxton's transformation has been nothing short of incredible. Now reaping the fruits of his labor, he's flashing all of the tools that made him the top prospect in all of baseball.
     
    It wouldn't be fair to solely focus in on Buxton's offense, even if that's where the most growth has come from. In the field, he's all but ran away with the American League CF Gold Glove award. Leading all fielders not named Mookie Betts in DRS, Buxton has bailed pitchers out with both his arm strength and his range. Looking at Baseball Savant (Statcast), Buxton still tops the charts across MLB in 4 star outs. With a catch probability registering between 26-50%, Buxton has had 27 opportunities, converting 26 of them into outs.
     
    Things get even more nutty as you look at the newly introduced Outs Above Average metric. With 24 OAA, Buxton's individual total comes in ahead of every single team in the big leagues, with the closest number being the Rays 20 OAA. On balls Buxton can make a play on, he's been deemed to have an 86% expected catch rate, and in turn, has owned a 92% actual catch rate. When balls are put in Buxton's vicinity in the Twins outfield, he's added a 6% catch probability. Over the course of 2017, that in part, goes to illustrate why Twins pitchers have seen an uptick in their own numbers.
     
    Simply put, Buxton has been the premier outfielder in all of Major League Baseball for virtually the entirety of 2017. When he's in centerfield, it's impossible not to see him as a game changing asset. What's changed, is that since the middle of the year, he's also become an incredible threat at the plate (and in turn on the basepaths). Instead of simply being a Gold Glove winner on an annual basis, this version of Byron Buxton is in the Most Valuable Player realm.
     
    At just 23 years old, there's probably more to Buxton than we've seen thus far. For everyone else across the league, that's a scary thought to wrestle with. For those in Twins Territory, the only appropriate result is Buck Yeah!
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the course of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, Kyle Gibson has been demoted to Triple-A, and experienced multiple periods of struggle at the big league level. Right now however, in the midst of a playoff race, he's been among the Twins most consistent starters. Diving deeper into the change, it doesn't appear anything more than a minor tweak was made. The results suggest that it may have made all of the difference.
     
    Forever, Gibson has been noted as a ground ball pitcher. Despite owning just a 50% ground ball rate for much of the year, Gibson is a sinkerballer that has always had more talk of his wormburners than action. That began to change over the course of his last eight starts though, and since July 22nd, the Twins have ran him out every fifth day feeling pretty good.
     
    Prior to July 22, Gibson had made 17 starts for the Twins. He owned a 6.29 ERA and was allowing a .920 OPS against. In that timespan, he'd posted just three quality starts, and was in general, being hit around the yard. On the 356 balls put in play, 25 of them (or 7%) were barreled. Roughly one in five fly balls left the yard, and his 16 homers allowed only helped to inflate already egregious numbers.
     
    Since that point, the Twins former top prospect has made eight starts to the tune of a 3.19 ERA. Allowing just a .682 OPS against, Gibson has tallied four straight quality starts, and hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of those outings. When allowing contact, with 184 balls in play, he's given up just four barrels (2%). To get that kind of turnaround, essentially halving the numbers, there has to be a monumental shift right? Well, the answer is, not so much.
     
    Looking at Gibson's repertoire before and after July 22nd, not a whole lot has changed. He's still a sinkerballer first, and then turns to his two offspeed offerings. Throwing both a slider and changeup, it's on the heels of those pitches that opposing hitters are kept off balance. What's been integral for Gibson however, is a slight jump in usage for each.
     
    Early in the season, Gibson was throwing his fastball just under 60% of the time, while dishing up sliders about 16% and changeups right around 15%. Fast forward to today, and his last eight starts have him going with the fastball 55% of the time (at a slightly higher velocity), the slider almost 19%, and the changeup 17% of the time. In cutting out some of his fastball usage (and curveball as well), he's been able to throw offspeed pitches forcing batters to stay back.
     
    The results have translated to a hard hit rate down to 32% from 38% earlier in the year, but more importantly, a HR/FB rate cut from 20% to 9.4%. Gibson is generating ground balls 2% more often (53.1%), as well as giving up fly balls 5% less often. While keeping the ball in the yard, and giving his defense an opportunity, he's found success in utilizing one of the Twins greatest assets.
     
    Now, nothing says the Gibson has found a sure fire path to rest on his laurels. Opposing hitters have a BABIP that's only six points lower (.331) during this good stretch. That number still falls within a normal realm across the big leagues, and in general, leaves plenty of room for success to be had. For a guy that has just a 9% SwStr rate as well as a 15.8% strikeout rate, he's always going to need a push for balls in play that resemble routine outs. As the pitch mix continues to morph though, it seems the current structure is something that can work.
     
    Pitching coach Neil Allen is a big believer in the changeup, and there could have been some work done in getting Gibson to use it more often. The 17% usage rate would be the best single season mark since 2015, when he offered the pitch a career high 19.7% of the time. Maybe not so coincidentally, the Twins hurler relied heavily on his changeup and slider that season, en route to a career low 3.84 ERA.
     
    Now five years into his big league career, and 29 years old, Twins fans are probably through with hoping Gibson has found it. All along though, it's seemed like if he could just hone this or that small thing in, effectiveness was sure to follow. As Minnesota eyes the Postseason, a steadying rotation presence was needed, and Gibson has definitely provided that. Only time will tell how effective the current tweaks are, but right now, all parties have to feel very encouraged.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    10 seasons into his Major League Baseball career, Joe Mauer was a number one overall pick playing for the hometown team, and owned the title of being the best catcher in the sport. Across that span, he had played in 1,178 games slashing .323/.405/.468. With awards piling up, it seemed certain a career was destined to be capped off with a Hall of Fame ceremony, the a traumatic brain injury occurred. Things have been different since, but in 2017, the Twins long tenured star is forcing us to reconsider.
     
    There's next to no argument that can be made against Mauer's first ten years in the big leagues being among the best we've ever seen from a catcher. He piled up three batting titles, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and six All Star Game appearances. Despite playing arguably the most demanding position on the diamond, he was among the best players on either team on a nightly basis.
     
    Since 2013, Mauer's post playing accolades have become murky. Dealing with the lingering effects of a career-altering injury, he's been a shell of his former self. Forced into a positional switch playing first base, he profiles oddly for the position as he's never been the traditional power hitter. From 2014 onwards, his slash line has dipped to a more human .275/.360/.388. There have been no awards handed out, and he has put forth just one season above 1.6 fWAR (the current one, in 2017).
     
    Now, looking at his career arc as a whole, Mauer presents an interesting case for Hall of Fame enshrinement. First and foremost, the largest caveat remains that his playing career is not over, and may be far from reaching that point. With another year left on his current deal in Minnesota, and good reason to continue playing (at least briefly) beyond that, we're not in a place for definitive conclusions. That being said, 2017 has presented us an opportunity to take another look at what could become a compelling case.
     
    Knowing what the numbers are, Mauer likely is never going to hit the "automatics." While he'll surpass 2,000 hits, he won't reach 3,000. He's not going to hit 500 homers, and and he may not even reach 1,000 RBI. His case for a plaque really never hinged on those targets anyways though, so let's take a look at what matters.
     
    Assuming he never wins another, Mauer's three batting titles put him in rare air. he's only the third catcher in history to win a batting title, the first since 1942, and the only ever for the America League. With three batting titles to his credit, only 14 players in the history of the sport have repeated as winners more often than the Twins star. Somewhat of a throw in for his batting title years (and one extra), he also has four Silver Slugger awards.
     
    Looking at his MVP award, Mauer also profiles rather favorably. Getting the nod in 2009, he became the first catcher to accept the honor since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. Only 17 catchers have ever taken home the hardware, and only five have done so since 1970. Most backstops are brought in for their defensive acumen, or the ability to hit for power. Mauer combined both in 2009, and as a catcher, was a threat both with the bat and the glove.
     
    That takes us to arguably the most compelling award, the Gold Glove. Mauer tallied three of them behind the plate. Only 11 catchers in the awards history have won more Gold Gloves than Mauer. Three is an impressive total on its own, but it's what Mauer is positioned to do in 2017 that takes thing up a notch. Joining Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad, the Twins (now) first basemen, would be just the third player in history to win a Gold Glove at two different positions. He would also be the first player in history to win Gold Gloves at catcher, and any other position.
     
    Statistically speaking, Mauer is going to have a hard case to make. Since 2013 and going forward, his career is far from what it was. However, he'll likely still end his time in the majors with a solid .300+ average, and his fWAR will still do some good. Currently he has composed a career mark checking in above Hall of Famers such as Ralph Kiner, Kirby Puckett, Phil Rizzuto, Roy Campanella, and Lou Brock. What needs to be his calling card however, is what could have been, and the hardware that is.
     
    There's no telling whether or not Mauer can put up another Gold Glove caliber season at first base. He's still young enough, and has looked incredible in the role this year. Whether or not that happens depends on usage and how he ages. Right now though, assuming the award is properly distributed in 2017, the Minnesota natives case for The Hall just got a lot more interesting.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    As the summer draws to a close, the Major League Baseball season is again set to throw us a roster shakeup. With teams having their rosters expand from 25 players to 40, there will be a host of additions to big league clubs across the sport. For a team like the Twins in the midst of a Postseason race, each call up could prove integral when it comes to squeaking out an extra win or two. The question is, who's on their way up?
     
    To refresh, virtually the only stipulation for September roster expansion is that any player called up must be on the team's 40 man roster. While clubs are being given an additional 15 roster spots, they obviously will not have that many openings on their 40 man. For example, the Twins currently have a full 40 man roster, so anyone promoted that's not currently on it, would make another move necessary.
     
    First, let's take a look at how the Twins can clear some space. There's not a ton of options for the club, but the most likely would be transferring players on the 10-day DL to the 60-day. The problem for Minnesota is that there isn't a ton of options.
     
    Both Adalberto Mejia and Dietrich Enns could be shifted to the longer DL if the club doesn't expect them back. J.T. Chargois has had virtually a lost season, but he's not on the MLB DL, so there's no way to clear a spot involving him outside of a DFA, which isn't logical. The Twins could clear space by DFA'ing players like Buddy Boshers or Hector Santiago, but none of those instances seem entirely likely either. So from a top down view, the Twins are looking at maybe one or two spots on the 40 man being open.
     
    To fill those spots, I'd wager Jake Reed and Stephen Gonsalves appear the most likely. The Rochester Red Wings are currently battling for a playoff spot, and with the likelihood that both would be used out of the pen for Minnesota, I can't imagine a promotion prior to the Triple-A season coming to an end. Reed can definitely help the big club in relief, and should've been up a long time ago if not for an injury to start the year. Gonsalves is going to be a difference maker in the coming years, and while his value is as a starter, getting his feet wet in 2017 is hardly a bad thing.
     
    Looking at what's currently available on the 40 man roster, there seems to be a few more candidates worthy of a promotion. Boshers seems much more certain to rejoin the big club than to be DFA'd, and both Aaron Slegers and Nik Turley should join him. Slegers could be a spot starter down the stretch, while Turley profiles well in relief. Despite being on the 40 man and previously making the jump, I'm not sure there's much allure to bringing either Felix Jorge or Randy Rosario back up. Like Gonsalves, Fernando Romero is an impact starter for the Twins future, but with a workload well above previous seasons, and slowing of late, I'd just call his season quits.
     
    From a position player perspective, there's only two players not on the active roster that are possibilities. Engelb Vielma is a glove first shortstop in the same vein as Ehire Adrianza. With Adrianza already used sparingly, and Vielma hitting just .212 in 84 Triple-A games, I can't imagine it worthwhile to ask him to sit on the Twins bench. From a bat perspective, Daniel Palka makes some sense. He's an outfielder by trade, but survives as a slugging hitter. He's a lefty, not the righty that the Twins need, but he owns a .272/.324/.428 slash line in 78 games for Rochester this year. He's a power threat, and adding another pinch hitter for the final month is hardly a big issue.
     
    The way I see it, Minnesota has very little space to create room, and they don't have a ton of candidates needing a call up either. I think we see more players return to the big league club, than we see fresh faces. Also, despite the big league club taking precedence, I'd be far from shocked if we don't see a few players hold out at Triple-A until and Postseason run is concluded.
     
    If I had to handicap things right now, here's who I see coming up, and the likelihood that they do:
     
    Buddy Boshers 100%
    Nik Turley 100%
    Aaron Slegers 80%
    Jake Reed 60%
    Stephen Gonsalves 55%
    Daniel Palka 50%
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    August has been an exciting month for the Minnesota Twins. While they have continued to command the second American League Wild Card spot, they've also watched Byron Buxton continue an incredible breakout. Despite all of the praise he's garnering, there's another youngster commanding your attention. Enter 24 year-old, Jorge Polanco.
     
    On June 7, the Twins placed Polanco on the bereavement list. His grandfather had passed away, and the Minnesota shortstop was set to return home to be with family. There's been plenty written about the relationship Polanco had with his grandfather. A close friend, Polanco leaned on his elder as a father figure, and respected him very much.
     
    Upon returning to the diamond, it was almost as if the emotions were continuing to take their toll on him. In 32 games following his return to the lineup, Polanco had hit the skids. He posted a .146/.205/.214 slash line, and he had just five extra base hits over that time frame. For a guy who's bat had always been his calling card, his line had bottomed out at .213/.265/.308.
     
    Then, as the calendar turned to August, Polanco had also seemingly turned a page. Over the course of his last 24 games dating back to August 2, the Twins shortstop owns a .378/.411/.656 line with 15 extra base hits and four longballs. He has been a catalyst for a Twins lineup that is surging, and he's seen his efforts rewarded being bumped up to the third spot in the order. A bat first player, Polanco had once again regained his swagger.
     
    It's incredibly hard to deduce what, if any, impact the passing of his grandfather had on his game. It is fair to note that baseball is an extremely mental sport, and for a guy struggling at his profession, there was probably other things weighing on his mind. Out of minor league options, Polanco was likely spared from a fate that could have had him back at Triple-A Rochester. Instead, he wrestled through his own struggles, and has gotten back to the player Minnesota has always expected him to be.
     
    On the season now, Polanco owns a .253/.300/.390 slash line. While the .689 OPS still sags behind the .757 mark from a year ago, it's a microcosm of how far he had fallen off the wagon. After looking like a player that may need some seasoning to get things back in line, he now appears to be the impact bat that can continue to help Minnesota stave off regression.
     
    What's maybe most impressive when it comes to Polanco, is that he's gotten back on the horse while never truly falling off with the glove. There hasn't ever been much concern with Polanco's ability to hit, but him sticking at short in the big leagues has always been met with skepticism. Now through 130 games in 2017, Polanco has played 860.2 innings at short. In total, he's been worth an even 0 DRS while improving his UZR to -3.7 (from -10.9 in 2016) and increasing his RngR to 1.7 after a -5.5 mark a year ago.
     
    Given the inefficiencies of defensive metrics, numbers aren't nearly the be-all-end-all. What they do tell us however, is that Polanco is hardly a detriment. He doesn't cover the ground you'd necessarily hope for from a shortstop, but his range is above average, and he is hovering right at replacement level when it comes to runs saved. Given the demands of the shortstop position, and the amount of elite gloves that play there, he's been far more an asset than a detriment.
     
    With just over 30 games left for Minnesota, Polanco is putting it together at the right time. His bat is scalding, and while it will see some slowing down the stretch, expecting it to level off to career norms is hardly a negative. On defense, he's continued to toe the line, and that's probably a bit better than was expected.
     
    Over the course of his career, whether or not he has to make a move to second base, the trajectory continues to be an upwards one. Polanco is a guy that should continue to be mentioned among the core of Buxton and Sano. The youth movement has not only begun, but has taken shape, and allows the Twins to be thought of in a different light for the immediate future. This team is going to make waves in the AL Central and beyond; this 2017 run is only the beginning.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming off a 103 loss campaign a season ago, there was plenty of room for tempered expectations in 2017. While many feared another lackluster season, the expectation always should have been a generous step forward. Given the uncertainty of youth, a three year span with a boom, buster, and normalization felt appropriate to surmise. As we go down the stretch in 2017 however, the Twins have become much more.
     
    Going into 2017, I felt pretty confident that something in the upper 70's seemed like a realistic win total for Minnesota. A .500 record seemed doable, if not a best case scenario, but a certainty to bank on was the floor not once again dropping out. Fast forward to late August and the hometown nine is within striking distance of the division, and pacing a tight knit group for the second Wild Card spot. The results have no doubt been a culmination of 120 plus games of solid baseball, but right now, something different is taking place.
     
    Looking ahead, the 2018 Twins appear to be a team that should target the Postseason or bust. With the maturation of the youth, integration of the veterans, and the landscape of their division, it's a perfect storm. That all held relatively true regardless of what took place this season. Over the past few weeks however, it's been a tying of the old guard, and the new, that has really positioned Minnesota to crack a smile.
     
    As of this writing, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario are all pacing Minnesota at the same time. Hot streaks tend to come and go, but each of the aforementioned names have seen a consistent and sustained level of success over a period of weeks. While it's great on an individual basis, it's also explained why the Twins have been so able to fight off regression. It's fair to wonder whether one may cool off, but with the chips stacked as five players go off at the same time, there's definitely some room for error.
     
    Each player could have an entire post dedicated to their surge, but from a snapshot view, here's what we're looking at from the names above since the month of August kicked off:
    Brian Dozier .333/.429/.702 12 XBH 9 HR
    Joe Mauer .303/.379/.395 5 XBH 1 HR
    Jorge Polanco .382/.417/.647 10 XBH 3 HR
    Byron Buxton .316/.349/.566 9 XBH 4 HR
    Eddie Rosario .346/.375/.679 13 XBH 7 HR

    That group above accounts for over half of the Twins nightly lineup. Given the fact that their combined average is well north of .300, and they have produced a glut of extra base hits, it's no wonder why the Minnesota offense is clicking. There's some like Rosario and Buxton that have sustained it longer than others, but the goal is to try and continue to increase the sample size for each of the parties involved.
     
    Quite possibly the best news about the group currently putting the Twins ahead on a nightly basis, are the names it doesn't include. Miguel Sano has been scuffling since the All Star Break (and is currently on the DL), while Max Kepler has yet to really find a groove in 2017. In it's entirety, that full contingent of seven players remain with Minnesota not only for this year, but at least the one that lies ahead as well.
     
    It'd be foolish to suggest that Minnesota is a World Series contender in its current state. As we've seen as 2017 has drawn on though, this team is ready to make some waves. The offseason ahead provides some real opportunity to supplement a strong nucleus, and continuing to get production from a blend of player types will have a Derek Falvey and Thad Levine squad as must watch entertainment.
     
    At some point in the not so distant future, it's a good bet there will be some cooling off. The hope would be that opponents fall victim to the same situation. Given the lay of the land however, the Twins have the deck stacked in their favor right now, and that's not a bad situation to be in at all.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    On May 13, 2017 Byron Buxton was near rock bottom. 30 games into his season for the Minnesota Twins, he looked lost at the plate, was batting just .168, and owned a paltry .500 OPS. After an exciting September 2016, his new season had gotten off to a terrible start. Fast forward to today and things have changed, but it's the "how" and "why" that tell the story.
     
    Despite continuing to play otherworldly defense, Buxton was once again scuffling at the big league level. Despite raking at every stop along the way, he just couldn't put it together for the Twins. With only 5 extra base hits through 30 games, and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio, things were all going downhill. From the outside looking in, it's not as if there was a point in which things clicked, but small tweaks along the way have now narrated a different story.
     
    Fast forward to August 21, and Buxton is batting .243 with a .682 OPS. It's still a far cry from where he'd like to be, but there's no denying the massive jump in production. He's in the midst of a 12 game hitting streak (.400/.408/.800) and owns a .366/.402/.6123 line in 27 games dating back to July 4th. While the production in and of itself are fun to marvel at, it's worth digging to see what changes took place.
     
    Having both added and abandoned the leg kick multiple times over his career with the Twins, Buxton's swing has been a work in progress. At times, he's struggled with plate coverage, and a weak front side has prevented him from reaching and driving the outside pitch. He's continued to work with new hitting coach James Rowson to find something that works, and as the results come, so to does the comfortability. Outside of the physical changes though, we can eye a few trends that have yielded positive results.
     
    Through April, Buxton had a swinging strike rate of 16.1% and was making contact just 65.3% of the time. Both of those numbers are lackluster, and combining them with a 31.8% chase rate, there was little room for success to follow. Jump ahead to August, and Buxton has overhauled two of those three areas. He's swinging through just 11.4% of pitches, and his contact rate has jumped to 76.9%. He's still chasing often, now 34.8% of the time, but it would stand to argue that the reason isn't because he's being fooled.
     
    Like teammate Eddie Rosario, Buxton is somewhat of a free swinger. Now generating more contact and having an enhanced level of success, he's likely finding himself expand the strike zone on pitches he genuinely likes. While that still isn't going to produce ideal results, it's a better practice than flailing the bat head at pitches you've simply been fooled on. In fact, what Buxton's chase rate illustrates, is that his approach at the plate is still a work in progress, and there's even more to squeeze out when it comes to production.
     
    There have been times throughout Buxton's maturation at the plate he's struggled with different zones of coverage. Whether it be not having the ability to turn on the inside fastball, or to drive the outside breaking pitch, plate coverage was a by-product of a breakdown in swing mechanics. As those have begun to correct themselves, the Twins centerfielder has seen an uptick across the board. The next step for him is to settle in even further on pitch recognition, and hit balls in the zone he choose, rather than the ones opposing pitchers dictate to him.
     
    As the confidence has grown, the output has turned more favorable as well. Looking at the first two months of the season in comparison to the last three, quality has taken a significant leap forward. Rather than dribbling balls into the ground, Buxton has generated quality contact with launch angles that give him a chance to do something on the basepaths. His radial charts between the two instances display a night and day difference.
     
    Right now, as a .240 hitter, the Twins have themselves and above average regular. A Gold Glove defender is doing enough at the plate, Minnesota can't complain. Getting up closer to something like .260/.340/.480 would put him in elite territory. It's encouraging to see the process take shape in more than just the month of September, and it's great to know that there's still room to grow. At 23 years old, the Georgia native is probably just beginning to scratch the surface, and the prime that lies ahead of him remains incredibly exciting.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    It's been a while since I've done a Twins mailbag here at Off The Baggy, and with the Twins playing some really fun and exciting baseball, it seemed like a good time. Soliciting questions from readers on Twitter, there was a handful of solid submissions. As the summer draws to a close, we'll get more concrete answers to some of these.
     
    Before letting the Twins play out the rest of their 2017 season, it seemed like a good time to take a look at some lingering questions about the year that has been, and what lies ahead. This group has no doubt played well above expectations, and that's created a heightened level of excitement surrounding the hometown nine. With that said, let's get into these questions.
     
    There's a ton of talent with those three names, and I think they each carry a unique situation. Among the group, the one I think makes the biggest jump a year from now is Blayne Enlow. He was a steal for the Twins in the 2017 draft, and has dominated short season GCL ball. He could go to Elizabethton considering his age, but he appears ready for full season ball in Cedar Rapids.
     
    Both Landon Leach and Tyler Benninghoff are exciting prospects as well, but there's a bit more reason to slowplay them. Benninghoff, an 11th round pick in 2016, has just returned to the mound following surgery. At 19, there's no reason to rush him. Leach is still relatively new to pitching full time, and while I think he has promise, I'd make him show you at every level for the next few seasons.
     
    I can only surmise that Colon's diet doesn't solely include salads. Not knowing his background, and having never been to the Dominican, trying to peg cultural foods is tough. I can say I love me a good (if that isn't an oxymoron) hot dog, some mac and cheese, or maybe even the two mixed together.
     
    For one reason or another, it seemed like the Twins were destined to keep Garver down until September. He would have been an easy one to peg, but is now finally up. With Rochester playoff bound, I'd imagine we don't see a ton of immediate promotions on September 1st. Also, the 40 man roster is pretty well represented at the big league level.
     
    I'd guess we could see Randy Rosario again, as well as maybe Felix Jorge or Fernando Romero getting work out of the pen. Romero is being limited right now for Chattanooga, and I'd guess he'll be coming up to an innings limit soon. Zack Granite and Daniel Palka should be near certainties from a position player standpoint with both being on the 40 man. If there's a candidate or two off of the 40 man, both Jake Reed and John Curtiss make a ton of sense.
     
    While the quick and easy answer is anybody, the realistic one requires a bit more thought. I've gone back and forth internally as to whether or not a Postseason run saves Molitor. I think though, he's shown enough to prove to Falvey and Levine that the results don't justify the means. It's been a situation in which the Twins have won despite him on more than one occasion.
     
    I think the biggest thing for any new hire is going to be relatability. Minnesota trots out one of the youngest lineups in baseball, and the manager needs to be someone that can connect with youth, as well as different cultures. A progressive thinker isn't going to hurt as well, and someone that meshes with the desires of the new front office will be a must. A name I've wondered about is Sandy Alomar Jr., but I haven't done near enough digging to see if he checks off any of those boxes.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    After suffering a severe shoulder injury that required his labrum be reattached over the offseason, Glen Perkins is nearing a return to the big leagues. I was skeptical this day would ever come, but the Twins former closer has worked his tail off to be where he is today. The question remains, can this version of Perkins be an asset in relief for Paul Molitor's squad?
     
    Perkins last appeared on a big league mound on April 10, 2016. It marked two innings of ineffective pitching a year ago. You'd have to go back to July 11, 2015 to find the last instance in which Perkins was right on the mound. Fortunately for the Twins, when Perkins was right, he was among the best in the game. A three time All Star, Perkins totaled at least 32 saves each year from 2013-2015. He has been a steadying force at the back end of a bullpen for what amounted to pretty poor teams. As he returns though, it's fair to wonder what is left.
     
    Having now pitched at three different levels on the farm in rehab stints, Perkins has posted a 6.14 ERA across 7.1 IP. His 10 strikeouts in that span are exciting, but they've been paired with an unfortunate five walks. Velocity returning has been a big question, and aside from a few low 90's reports, he's hovered somewhere in the high 80's. It's hard to imagine the life on his fastball being better than what it was, and he's dipped from 96 mph in 2013, to 92.1 mph a year ago.
     
    Looking at the boost Perkins could provide however, is somewhat notable given the Twins current situation. While the bullpen has been better than it started out, there's still some easily replaceable parts. Maybe the easiest place to see the former closer slot in, is with a swap for lefty Buddy Boshers. Across 29.0 IP in 2017, Boshers has posted a 4.66 ERA that's due for even more regression with a 5.41 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to 7.4 K/9 and his walk rate has ballooned to a 3.1 BB/9 mark. Effective only against lefties, he's been exposed at the highest level of the game.
     
    Asking Perkins to slot in and take over Boshers' spot in the pen is a pretty mediocre ask. Being better than a 4.50+ ERA while limiting walks shouldn't be a tall task for a big league arm. What we don't know is whether or not Perkins still has the stuff to play at the highest level of competition. It's an easy move to tag him in, and it could end up being just as easy to remove him.
     
    The day appears to be coming that the Twins will need to make a decision. In terms of his rehab calendar, there's only a few days left in which the Twins can leave him on the farm. From everything Glen has stated publicly, he believes he's ready to go and wants to compete. For a guy that's given the organization so much, and has a team option left for next year, he's earned the opportunity for a swan song.
     
    It'd be pretty unfortunate to see Perkins go out and be shelled, effectively ended his time as a big league. His rope is probably pretty close to the end regardless, but it would be a much better story to allow him success and the ability to go out on top. This book is probably in its final chapter, but the author has yet to write the last few pages.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to have to give the Minnesota native an answer, and the result seems to be a harmless one no matter what takes place. Perkins replacing Boshers is of little note, and should he too need to be replaced, there's more than a few capable arms still in the prospect realms waiting to hear their names called.
    Baseball is a tough game, and it generally dictates to everyone when they'll be done playing it. Rarely do athletes go out on their own terms, and some have harder exits than others. I'm pulling for Glen Perkins to ride off into the sunset, but I'm not certain how rocky the path will be.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    223. That's the number of strikeouts that Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Mark Reynolds put up in 2009. It's a major league record, and has stood for the past seven seasons. In 2017 however, it's almost certain to fall, and both Miguel Sano and Aaron Judge are chasing it. The question is, are all strikeouts the same?
     
    There's an association with the strikeout that it is representative of negativity. In a certain context, that's a fair principle. At it's core, the strikeout is a non-productive at bat the results in an inning likely becoming less fruitful. For guys like Sano and Judge however, it seems a necessary evil, that most major league teams have given into.
     
    Thus far in 2017, both Sano and Judge have launched their share of homers. The former has 26 to his credit, while the latter has 36. When striking out his big league record amount, Reynolds clubbed 44. There's some key differences among the trio however. As the strikeout ties them together, it's the underlying factors that separate them.
     
    During his record setting season, Reynolds drew 76 walks and posted an on base percentage of .359. With a SLG percentage of .543, he totaled an .892 OPS. In comparison, it's Judge that has made his strikeouts less of a detriment than the Twins Sano. On the year, Judge owns a .420 OBP thanks to his league leading 87 walks. at a 1.028 OPS, he also leads the league. On the flip side, Sano has walked just 49 times, and owns only a .354 OBP. While his SLG is a solid .511, his .865 OPS checks in below the .916 mark he put up in his rookie season.
     
    Looking at the group from a top down view, none of the three represent a black hole for their club. The production, despite the strikeouts, remains an asset. Chris Carter, virtually for his whole career, is where you get into the territory of the positives not being worth the strikeouts. While he launched a good deal of homers from 2013-2016, his OBP hovered around .300, while his OPS was north of .800 just once.
     
    For the sake of this argument, Reynolds' 2009 is probably the baseline for where you'd like the combination to come in. The 44 longballs are a great offensive boon, and the .359 OBP is plenty efficient. Under those sentiments, Sano's 2017 is in jeopardy of leaving plenty to be desired. While he has just 26 homers to his credit, he hasn't picked up the pace significantly in the walks department. Finishing with an identical .269 average across 80 games in 2015, Sano has a .385 OBP. Right now, the Twins need Sano to trend more towards Judge, or even Reynolds.
     
    Judge has drawn plenty of criticism for his second half slide. After batting well north of .300 for the first half, pitchers have beaten him consistently with the low and away pitch. Still though, he's drawn walks and has posted elite numbers despite the strikeouts. When the dust settles, his average is probably going to hover somewhere around the .270 mark. Even with that reality, he should have an OBP up in the .380 range, and his OPS will remain above the league leaders.
     
    Strikeouts are something that plague most power hitters, and teams tend to put up with them to a certain extent. Chris Carter is jobless because his peripherals were of next to no value. Mark Reynolds has since reinvented himself and become a much more complete hitter. Aaron Judge is slipping some, but still owns extraordinary supporting stats. The Twins need Miguel Sano to tighten it up at the plate. In 2017, he's trended more towards Carter than Judge or Reynolds. The power will need to play for more longballs, and the in between times need to have more walks filtered in.
     
    Right now, Sano has just over 1,100 big league at bats, and he's still just 24 years old. He can continue to mature as a hitter and shape his approach at the dish. As the Twins continue to work with him, they'll need to focus on the aspect of discipline and punishing mistakes. There's no cause for concern as it relates to the strikeout, but Minnesota needs more production when the ball isn't leaving the yard.
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    As the Minnesota Twins are faced with another roster shuffle, it appears Kennys Vargas is in fact on his way back to the big leagues. After Adalberto Mejia went down, Paul Molitor was faced with an open roster spot. Needing another starter in the coming days, the Twins could turn to already rostered Dillon Gee. With an opportunity to bring up another bat, it's Vargas who gets his seventh transaction, and fourth recall, of the year.
     
    While there's plenty of reason to be excited about a player that looks like the shadow of David Ortiz, the reality is that the comparisons stop there. Now 27 years old, Vargas is hardly a prospect (and was never considered a top 100 entrant even when he had prospect status), and he's done little to separate himself at the highest level. Across parts of four big league seasons, Vargas owns a .738 OPS and a 228/55 K/BB ratio. With 32 homers to his credit, he hasn't exactly excelled at launching the long ball either.
     
    In 2017, things have gotten even worse for what Minnesota may have hoped Vargas could provide. As a switch hitter, he's generally been more dangerous from the right side. Unfortunately this season, Vargas owns a .170/.231/.277 line against left handed pitchers, and just one of his eight long balls have come from that side of the dish. In 47 at bats versus lefties, he's compiled just three extra base hits, and the .507 OPS leaves an incredible amount to be desired.
     
    Quite arguably a greater source of frustration is not necessarily Vargas' struggles, but how they could be avoided. In continuing to promote him, the Twins have passed by alternative options. Mitch Garver and ByungHo Park both represent a higher ceiling addition to the big league club, despite neither of them getting a chance. The Twins roster construction has begged for a right handed power bat virtually all season, and both of the aforementioned names also profiles better in the field.
     
    Through 82 games for Triple-A Rochester, Garver owns a .909 OPS and has been an asset behind the plate. As a catcher, it could be argued that he should've replaced veteran backup Chris Gimenez some time ago. Knowing he can play first base and some outfield as well, his not being added to the big league roster is confusing at best. Garver almost certainly make the 25 man next spring, and not jump-starting his debut seems a bit foolish.
     
    Although Park is not currently on the 40 man, that's hardly an issue for the Twins. Given the club has open spots, as well as an opportunity to trim if they need to, Park should've found his way back. After missing time to start the year, he's hit well at Rochester. Since June 17, Park owns a .309/.355/.495 slash line at Triple-A. The lack of power has been odd (he has just six homers), and the swing and miss tendencies have remained poor (63/11 K/BB). That said, he's 31 and coming up on the latter half of his current deal with the Twins.
     
    Between Garver and Park, Minnesota has two avenues they could choose to push the envelope with. The former appears ready to jump in and contribute at a high level, while the latter represents more of an alternative to Vargas that has some crash and burn potential. What's somewhat frustrating however, is that Vargas represents a move that really doesn't move the needle at all. Despite realistically being a long shot for the playoffs, Minnesota is still playing meaningful games. By making the move they did, it seems Minnesota chose the lowest common denominator.
     
    If everything breaks perfectly for Kennys Vargas, he's a serviceable bench bat. When a team has opportunity to aim higher and make a bigger impact, it would seem to reason that they should. Minnesota will probably welcome one or both of Garver and Park in September, but it'll represent at least a month of missed opportunity.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Rewind back a few years and the Minnesota Twins knew who would be getting the ball in the 9th inning. For a long time, the answer was Eddie Guardado. The man nicknamed "Every Day" passed the torch to Joe Nathan, and it was then turned over to Minnesota native Glen Perkins. In recent years though, Minnesota has needed to get more creative. As they have done so though, it seems they've consistently created closers out of thin air.
     
    In 2015, Kevin Jepsen was Minnesota's answer to Perkins breaking down. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, he racked up 15 saves despite having just five across 315 appearances to that point. Then again, a year later, Brandon Kintzler emerged. The long time Brewers veteran picked up his first save since minor league ball, and he would go on to run off 44 more up until July 2017. Over the course of three years, Minnesota had consistently created closers out of thin air.
     
    Should this tell us anything, it's likely that the narrative be closers are overvalued, and underutilized. The save is a statistic that places more importance on the 9th inning of a ball game, despite their being no evidence that it actually is. Sure, the game comes to a close when a team is winning after the 9th, but the game likely was decided long before that. In having a pitcher designated to get the final three outs, one of your best relievers may have missed the opportunity to get a much more important trio of outs earlier in the contest.
     
    It really doesn't matter whether or not a big league team has a "Proven Closer," and holds even less importance for a team not destined for the Postseason. That being said, the Twins appear on a path to again create an asset and this time it's in the form of Matt Belisle. The question is, are the pieces there to make it work?
     
    Unlike Kintzler before him, Belisle is not a groundball machine, and he tends to miss some bats. The former throws harder than the latter however, and they both leave something to be desired in a high leverage situation. For Belisle though, there's a few things working in his favor.
     
    During 2017, Matt Belisle has racked up strikeouts at a 7.5 K/9 clip. That mark is his best total since 2013, and the third highest total of his career. While he does induce groundballs 43% of the time, Belisle uses a low 90's fastball to generate swings and misses over 10% of the time (for just the second season of his career). He's giving up contact at a career low 78% of the time, and balls are being hit hard a respectable 27% of the time.
     
    The beginning of the season didn't go well for the 37 year-old veteran. Through his first 17.2 IP, he owned an ugly 8.66 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters to post an .833 OPS. His last 27.0 IP however have been a different story. He's posted a 1.67 ERA and opposing batters have posted just a .598 OPS. Suggesting it's been a tale of two seasons is more than fair.
     
    Down the stretch, the Twins will be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Having been sellers at the deadline, they realize the uphill battle doesn't seem in their favor. With such an ugly run differential, regression should be expected to hit hard. However, with 52 games remaining as of August 8, the club has exactly half of those contests against teams with sub .500 records.
     
    As the summer turns into fall, Matt Belisle should be expected to get most of the Twins save opportunities. He's absolutely the veteran candidate that manager Paul Molitor falls in love with. In closing out games, Belisle is hardly a worse option than either of the previous two created closers. Whether or not anything more than a handful of saves comes out of his work in the 9th remains to be seen, but for now the Twins have again created from within.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    On August 5 at Target Field, Baseball Prospectus embarked on the bowels of the stadium to have an in depth discussion with General Manager Thad Levine. Speaking on the course of the season as a whole, and the plans for what lies ahead, there were a few key indications as to what changes may be coming for the Minnesota franchise. Arguably chief among them is that the Twins will win as they fine tune their process.
     
    During the course of the conversation, Levine discussed the fact that both he and Derek Falvey didn't immediately ask to skyrocket the Twins payroll. While they are aware funds are available to them, they'll be making a conscious effort to spend wisely on the guts of the organization, to make the on field product improve. This transition began to rear its head recently, as the departures of Jack Goin (head of what amounts to analytics) and a handful of area scouts were moved on from.
     
    Levine noted that the Twins Analytics Department currently consisted of four full time employees, and that it could swell to nearly double in size a year from now. On the scouting front, he talked pregame Sunday that it was necessary to retain those let go through the draft and trade deadline, before transitioning to the future. It's in these internal areas that the Twins can carve out somewhat of a competitive advantage.
     
    Over the offseason, Minnesota will find themselves in a position to spend for the first time in nearly a decade. A team with an opportunity at a realistic playoff run, supplementing from outside makes a ton of sense. While they're almost certain to be out on big name fish like Yu Darvish, they'll land more middle ground options to help the club take the next step. In making sure those brought in both fit, and elevate the club, Minnesota will lean on those internal departments to help dissect decision making.
     
    Minnesota has already been able to employ different practices and strategies brought in by the new front office. It was noted that the Analytics Department played a very integral role in the recently completed MLB Draft. Figuring out the probability of players lasting past a certain round, to deciding what level of success a guy may have, baseball was being married from an eye test to what the numbers also suggested.
     
    It's in this strategy that Minnesota can begin to shape its future. Given the perceived volatility for players hovering in the middle ground, a more forward thinking process will hopefully give the club a higher ceiling for success. Levine and Falvey will look to employ an organization full of forward thinkers looking to squeeze out every bit of advantage the team can find. Although the dollars may not be spent on the big splash free agent, the hope would be that a commitment to spending from all angles will produce more fruit from each acquisition the club makes.
     
    Looking back at how the organization has been run for years, this is a pretty drastic deviation and something Twins fans will likely look upon with favor. There's no doubt the transition will come with some hiccups, but finding a competitive advantage for an organization that has made the middle ground home, is something you'd be hard pressed not to get behind.
     
    We've already seen some of the internal transition begin. I fully expect a new manager and a handful of other positions to experience turnover in the coming months. What will be worth monitoring, is where each player brought in can squeeze out that extra bit of success that the process will have dictated they are capable. This new regime is beginning to put their stamp on things, and in the years ahead, that should prove favorably for fans across Twins Territory.
     
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  24. Ted Schwerzler
    With the 2017 Major League Baseball trade deadline now behind us, and the end of the season not that far off in the distance, it seems a good time to take a look at the Minnesota Twins 40 man roster. While it's the 25 man collection that draws the most focus, it's the 40 man that represents where answers will come from in any given season. As the club looks to revitalize the 40 man, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will soon be faced with some tough decisions.
     
    Recently at Twins Daily, prospect guru Seth Stohs wrote up a comprehensive piece looking at who needs to be added to the 40 man roster in November. He outlined the stipulations for 40 man additions, and broke down the situations regarding more than a handful of key names. Looking at his work, the question now becomes, who makes the cut.
     
    Despite being a few months early, here's a stab at where I see Minnesota needing to allocate roster openings to:
     
    Stephen Gonsalves- This is a no-brainer, and he should probably be added before the end of 2017, with the idea that he makes a September big league debut. He's been dominant at Double-A, and should factor into the Twins rotation next season.
     
    Jake Reed- Another guy that should have a very real shot at an August or September debut, Reed profiles well out of the Twins pen. He is a hard thrower, and the hope would be that he continue to blossom into a high leverage option for Minnesota.
     
    Zack Littell- Recently acquired from the New York Yankees in exchange for Jaime Garcia, Rob Antony all but suggested Littell was a lock in a recent interview with Darren Wolfson. Antony noted Littell was the name Minnesota targeted from New York, and sees him as an impact starter for them as early as next year.
     
    John Curtiss- Like Gonsalves and Reed before him, Curtiss is another guy that should be up with Minnesota before the end of 2017. He's been dominant as a closer this year for both Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Rochester. With the Twins needing a pen overhaul, it'll be some internal options that are likely called upon first.
     
    Lewin Diaz- I haven't been nearly as high on him as other outlets, failing to rank him among the top 15 Twins prospects. Diaz is just 20 though, and has continued to show power (10 HR) at Cedar Rapids this year, after a .928 OPS in the Appy League a year ago. There's too much upside to let him go unprotected, though I think it'd be a massive ask for a team to roster him at the MLB level all year in 2018.
     
    Kohl Stewart- The former 4th overall pick in 2013 hasn't fared nearly as well as the Twins would've hoped. He continues to post low ERA's, but really hasn't struck anyone out. That being said, he's been good at Double-A Chattanooga since coming back from the DL this year, and I don't think there's any way he'd go unclaimed.
     
    Lewis Thorpe- Having missed essentially two years due to Tommy John surgery and his recovery, Thorpe is still at High-A Fort Myers. He's looked good there though, and is probably more advanced than his current level would suggest. I'd imagine he'd be a stash option for a team, and the Twins will want to protect him.
     
    By my count, the Twins have seven names they'll need to figure out how to protect. I could see Aaron Slegers being added to the 40 man in 2017 for a debut, but am not sure he would need to stick. Recently acquired reliever (from the John Ryan Murphy trade) Gabriel Moya is an intriguing name, and Luke Bard is another guy that appears to be knocking on the big league door. Given that he passed through waivers unclaimed this year, I can't see the Twins making Mason Melotakis a priority, and Nick Burdi shouldn't be an option as he'll be recovering from Tommy John surgery.
     
    As things stand right now, Minnesota has 37 players on their 40 man roster. Glen Perkins will need a spot coming off the 60 day DL if he does pitch this season, but I'm not sure what's left there. Going into 2018, Minnesota will be hoping Phil Hughes can be useful as well, though that seems uncertain as well. If you're having to create room, here's a few guys that could be battling for their spots:
     
    Matt Belisle- Signed a one year deal, and while he's been better after a dismal start, I can't imagine the Twins will bring him back for a second tour.
     
    Buddy Boshers- Boshers has been solid, but isn't posting the per nines he tallied a season ago, and his FIP is ugly. This is a spot you can upgrade with a much higher ceiling player.
     
    Bartolo Colon- A fun story the rest of the way, Colon may retire at season's end. Even if he doesn't, the rotation shouldn't have him in it, and likely won't.
     
    Dillon Gee- This seems somewhat of a tossup, and I've been harsh in regards to Gee. He has never been anything above average, but if the Twins have room to keep him, you could do a whole lot worse as a spot starter.
    Kyle Gibson- Far from a certainty, but the Twins will need to offer Gibson an arbitration deal this winter, and they could definitely choose not to. I'd imagine that's unlikely, but the possibility exists.
     
    Nik Turley- Having had a few turns in the rotation, Turley doesn't look like a big league starter. I think his stuff can play out of the pen in shorter bursts, but if he's not given an opportunity they, you can move on.
     
    Chris Gimenez- On a one-year deal with the Twins, Mitch Garver should have taken over his position by now. Regardless, there's not much need to bring Giemenz back in 2018 when the goal will be moreso finding a lower tier depth option.
     
    Ehire Adrianza- This should sort itself out in the coming months, but the reality is that there isn't room on the 25 man for Eduardo Escobar, Ehire Adrianza, and Jorge Polanco. The former two are utility men with somewhat competing skillsets, while Polanco should be the starter of the bunch but has struggled. Adrianza seems the easiest to squeeze out in hopes of better utilizing a bench position.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the offseason, the Minnesota Twins hired a new front office duo in the form of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. They were thrust into a situation where the roster was in flux, and the manager was appointed to them. On top of all that, they were faced with making a critical decision regarding a second basemen coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history. Fast forward to today, and trades have been the highlight that define the new tandem's baseball acumen.
     
    Prior to the 2017 season getting underway, Falvey and Levine had extensive discussions with the Los Angeles Dodgers in regards to Brian Dozier. It was a match made in heaven from a needs perspective, and LA had the assets to part with. However, as the process drew on, it was apparent the Dodgers were stuck on giving up a sole player in return, and the Twins brass held their ground.
     
    Despite putting up Harmon Killebrew like numbers a season ago, Dozier was primed for regression. He had averaged 23 homers a season from 2013-2015, and the 42 long ball output in 2016 wasn't going to cloud that. Regardless, he was still more valuable to the Twins than a one-for-one return. Jose De Leon is a nice enough prospect, but as they all are, a lottery ticket nonetheless. He had shoulder and arm issues in the past, and flipping a high level big leaguer for that level of uncertainty never made sense.
     
    In the end, Falvey and Levine did their best to have Cody Bellinger or Walker Buehler brought into the conversation. While never a possibility, you can't fault them for aiming high. When players like Brock Stewart and Willie Calhoun weren't going to be thrown in either, they smartly walked away. At the end of the day, even with his faults, Dozier would be more valuable to the Twins than a straight up return of solely De Leon.
     
    Fast forward to the 2017 Major League Baseball trade deadline and the duo was at it again. Despite no numbers suggesting Minnesota could hang with the red-hot, and frankly more talented, Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals, the front office took a calculated shot. Giving up next to nothing in Huascar Ynoa, Jaime Garcia was brought in to bolster a depleted rotation. In a matter of a week, the expected played itself out, and Minnesota' front office flipped the pitcher in a deal that essentially boiled down to buying two better prospects from the Yankees for roughly $5 million.
     
    Caught in the middle ground between buying and selling, the Twins dipped their toe in, allowed the scenario to play itself out, and then ended up in a better position anyways. Once they established themselves as sellers, the strong decision making continued. With no realistic place for him in the organization, the Twins getting any return for John Ryan Murphy was a win. Sure, the former regime screwed the pooch in dealing away Aaron Hicks for nothing, but Gabriel Moya is dominating Double-A and is one heck of a dart throw in exchange for a guy you can't use.
     
    While the Twins bullpen has been a mess in 2017, it always stood to reason that Brandon Kintzler had no place in it once Minnesota deemed it wasn't going anywhere. A free agent at the end of the year, he's still free to resign, and getting something back for him is a huge win. Falvey and Levine turned a guy the Twins signed on a minor league deal, and paid next to nothing in 2017 for, into a high floor/low ceiling minor league arm from the Nationals. Continuing to add to pitching depth, Minnesota did right by Kintzler and themselves.
     
    It's been less than a year thus far, but what we've seen from the front office in terms of acquisitions should be heartwarming. The Twins have a young core, and are positioned to win soon, and for an extended period of time. With savvy decision making thus far, an offseason in which it makes sense to spend and supplement is something that lies ahead of both Falvey and Levine.
     
    The rest of the way in 2017, it would be nice to see a glut of prospects make their debuts at Target Field. Starting the audition process now would go a long ways into shaping the 25 man coming out of spring training a year from now. There is the caveat that Paul Molitor may not be around a year from now, and that could influence roster decisions presently. That being said, it seems that when shaping this organization, Derek Falvey and That Levine have a plan. So far, they've shown an ability to know when to hold em, and maybe more importantly, when to fold em.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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