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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    There's no denying that the 2018 Minnesota Twins fell short of expectations. This club came into the year having played in the Postseason a season ago, and they were looking to target the Cleveland Indians at the top of the AL Central division. Winning just 78 games, that didn't happen, but there was plenty for this group to hang their hats on.
     
    Obviously a season in which we saw Paul Molitor's squad take a step backwards, there's a few key areas needing improvement. Before getting into those narratives however, we need to take a look at which positive launching points could loom large for the offseason and year ahead.
     
    Kyle Gibson
     
    Mid-way through the 2017 Major League Baseball regular season, it looked as though the former 1st round draft pick would be a non-tender candidate at the end of the year. Then things clicked, and he posted a 3.76 ERA over his final 13 starts. What's only made it look better, is that Gibson has carried the strong performance into 2018.
     
    He wrapped up the year trailing only Jose Berrios in terms of fWAR among Twins pitchers, and his 3.62 ERA was easily a career best. The FIP and xFIP numbers suggest there's some room for regression, but it isn't too worrisome. Another key development is that Gibson showed a heightened ability to get batters out on his own. With a career high 8.2 K/9, his strikeout numbers were notable for the first time in his career. Thanks to the emergence of Gibson, and presence of both Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, the Twins rotation is in a good place.
     
    Jake Cave
     
    In baseball, you are rarely afforded multiple significant opportunities to make an impact. After being pulled from the Yankees glut of outfielders, the Twins afforded Cave an opportunity and he ran with it. As a 25 year-old rookie, he's a bit past the typical prospect shine. That said, he posted a more than enticing .797 OPS and showed plenty of power potential.
     
    Right now, he's locked in as nothing lower than the 4th outfielder for the Twins going into 2019. Cave took the run likely tabbed for Zack Granite coming into the season, and he could very well push Robbie Grossman out of the organization as well. If there's an area to focus on when it comes to development, it's easily plate discipline. A 102/18 K/BB ratio leaves plenty of room for a higher level of on-base prowess to rear its head.
     
    Taylor Rogers
     
    Losing a bullpen piece like Ryan Pressly was going to create opportunity for another arm to step up, and Rogers did in a big way. Leading the Twins in fWAR out of the pen, Taylor posted a career best 2.63 ERA. It was the third straight season in which he's lowered his ERA, and he finished with a career best 9.9 K/9. Although velocity isn't his game, he gets pitches by batters, and doesn't give up free passes.
     
    On top of being dominant as a whole, Rogers wasn't simply a LOOGY either. Sure, he nuked lefties to the tune of a .428 OPS, but he only allowed righties to post a .643 OPS against him in the process. Across over 68 innings this season, he only allowed three longballs, and he pitched his way to the back of the Minnesota pen.
     
    Eddie Rosario
     
    Spanning the group of exciting prospects that rose the Twins ranks together, it's probably a bit surprising that Rosario has emerged the most. That said, we're absolutely at that point in their collective development. After an .836 OPS season in 2017, Rosario solidified his ability by performing at an All-Star level in 2018.
     
    From where I sit, I don't think there's much more to the ceiling of the Minnesota left fielder, but the floor shouldn't be significantly lower either. A guy that has a cannon in the outfield, and can hit as a middle-of-the-order threat, he's going to be a guy that makes sense for a long term extension. Rosario can be a star for the Twins, and that came somewhat out of nowhere.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Today the Minnesota Twins announced that Paul Molitor will not be brought back as Manager in 2019. With two years remaining on his freshly signed three year deal, it may come as a surprise to some, but it really shouldn't. While it hasn't been a certainty that the Twins front office would make a change, the signs have been there for some time. Now with the opportunity to hire their guy, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine prepare for a pivotal offseason.
     
    Molitor was offered a three-year extension following the 2017 season. Despite looking like he would be let go last season, Molitor's Twins got into the playoffs and he earned a Manager of the Year award because of it. With the Manager of the Year award being loosely tied to surprise performances, it's not a huge shock he was the one voters selected. Had he missed the postseason however, the award likely lands elsewhere, and the three-year deal never gets done.
     
    Being brought back this season, it appeared that Minnesota's front office thought long and hard about the decision. He was not immediately re-upped last winter, and there was never any glowing indications of support from the top during the 2018 slate. While he was offered a three-year contract, a two-year deal after such a close decision for change likely would've looked like little more than a placeholder.
     
    Certainly there will be some Twins fans that can't wrap their head around guys like Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar being gone in the same season. Adding St. Paul native Paul Molitor to that list isn't going to do management any favors with that crowd. However, give the front office credit for not concerning themselves with those opinions. Making baseball decisions based on feelings or how an individual relates to an organization is a good way to quickly venture down a wrong road. At the end of the day, fans clamor for winning more than anything else, and being solely focused on that purpose is of the utmost importance.
     
    Embarking upon one of the most important offseasons in recent memory, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will now begin with a managerial search. They are able to bring in someone of their choosing, and internal candidates such as Derek Shelton and Jeff Pickler could be waiting in the wings. The ties to Texas and Cleveland still reside in both, so Sandy Alomar or Jeff Bannister may be of some intrigue as well. I'm not sure where they turn, but I'm of the opinion that it will be a good source regardless.
     
    While there's been some in-season roster decisions I've found myself in disagreement with the front office, the vast majority of trades, acquisitions, and moves have been well executed. Although it's easy to mock a process that seems new or uncertain, it's also hard to really dig in and not see positive ripples reflecting throughout the system.
     
    Managers don't make an incredible impact during a Major League Baseball season, but Paul Molitor generally did less with more during games. He left opportunity on the table, and neither Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano truly developed under his tutelage. The organization wanting to get someone on staff that can take the big league club to new heights is a worthy ask. Now that Molitor is out, Falvine is in and it's on them to find who's next in charge.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently, the team behind MLB's Statcast came up with another visual and defensive metric for our perusal. It's still astonishing to me that the Baseball Savant platform is a free database to the average fan. That's the reality we live in however, and they've now introduced a Directional Outs Above Average leaderboard. In 2018 Byron Buxton obviously isn't on it. Looking back at least year though, the numbers are extraordinary.
     
    MLB.com's David Adler broke down some of his findings using the new tool today on Twitter. Notably, the White Sox Adam Engel has been the most valuable outfielder in baseball this year when it comes to tracking down balls behind him. Quantifying anything above +5 as elite, Engel has tracked down baseballs behind him and to his glove side as good as anyone in baseball this season.
     

     
    That's all fine and well, but the high water mark this year is +5. The Twins centerfielder won the Platinum Glove last season, and watching him play, it was easy to see why. Among players with at least 25 opportunities, Byron Buxton's 29 outs above average was eight clear of his closest competition (Ender Inciate 21). Generating those outs though, Buxton's play behind him is what sets him apart.
     

     
    Working in centerfield, Buxton generated elite totals (+10 and +7) on balls to the left and right field gaps. With 81 home games a year played at Target Field, getting to baseballs towards the high wall in right center or the bullpen fence in left center, saved his pitcher's ERA significantly. With 20 OAA behind him, only the White Sox Engel came close (owning an 18 OAA mark on balls behind him).
     
    During 2018, the Twins have gotten just 28 games from Buxton at the big league level. Due to injuries, rehab, and now service time issues, he simply hasn't been on the field for a team that took a significant step backwards. Max Kepler has been one of the most consistently available outfielders for Minnesota in his place, and his nine OAA total is quite the dropoff.
     
    As you may expect, this reality has caused quite the problem for the Twins defensively. In 2017 Minnesota outfielders combined for a 24 DRS total, which was good enough for 4th in all of baseball. Fast forward to today and Minnesota owns just a 2 DRS total this season, ranking 17th in the big leagues. There's no doubt it has also contributed to the Twins sliding from 19th to 23rd year-over-year in terms of pitching ERA.
     
    There really isn't anything groundbreaking about the concept that Byron Buxton is an immense talent on defense. That premise alone is why the Twins rushed him back from his initial injury this season, and why they were willing to sacrifice both his health and offensive game for the betterment of their team as a whole. That said, it's plenty refreshing to see new metrics reflect just how exceptional Minnesota's center fielder appears through the eye test.
     
    Getting a healthy Buxton back next season should do wonders for Minnesota, and he should continue to be a best friend for Twins pitchers.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler

    Ranking the Rookies

    By Ted Schwerzler ,

    The Minnesota Twins are now in the final week of their 2018 Major League Baseball season. With a Postseason berth eliminated from reality, the final seven games will be of little significance. Given the opponents coming to Target Field include the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, opportunity to play spoiler isn't present either. That said, these contests remain a proving grounds for players looking to crack the 2019 Opening Day roster.
     
    Right now, there's some intrigue as to whether or not we're witnessing the end of Joe Mauer's heralded career with the hometown team. These could be his final days in a major league uniform, and although I believe he'd be of service to the club in 2019, it appears that no decision has been reached at the present time.
     
    For the guys that are significantly Mauer's junior, they are still looking to make a final imprint on the organization in hopes of vaulting themselves into a more secure position next spring. While the final week may be somewhat of a slog for the battle tested veterans, no opportunity can be taken for granted when looking to stay at the game's highest level.
     
    This season, the Twins have trotted out more than a handful of rookies. Here's a look back at how they've all performed.
     
    Mitch Garver - C
     
    Somewhat unfortunately for the organization, Garver was turned loose relatively early this year. Instead of being able to serve as Jason Castro's understudy, he was pushed into a starting role after a knee injury ended Jason's season. While Mitch looked raw behind the plate early on, it's been more than apparent that he made strides as the season went on. Working with veterans like Bobby Wilson, and briefly Chris Gimenez, his glove work improved dramatically.
     
    On the offensive side of this, his .734 OPS was more than welcomed behind the dish for Minnesota. He was easily the most productive offensive asset as a backstop, and there appears to be some legitimate pop in his stick. Over a full season, he's a likely double-digit longball guy, and he's pushed himself into the conversation for more work next season. It remains to be seen if Minnesota will make changes at catcher, but Garver didn't hurt his positioning at all.
     
    Jake Cave - OF
     
    Maybe one of the most shrewd moves in the early tenure of the Twins new front office, Jake Cave was acquired as outfield depth from a Yankees system that simply didn't have room for him. With Byron Buxton having a lost year, and Zack Granite falling out of the picture, Cave harnessed the opportunity presented to him.
     
    Early on, Cave should've gotten more run than veteran retread Ryan LaMarre, but that didn't stop him from turning heads on a near daily basis. In 85 games this season Cave owns a .771 OPS and has ripped 12 homers. At 25 years old, he's somewhat of an elder rookie, but there's plenty of reason to believe that this is just scratching the surface. He's easily Minnesota's 4th outfielder to open up 2019, and it's been apparent than he can start for stretches when need be as well.
     
    Willians Astudillo - UT
     
    After over 630 minor league games, Astudillo finally graced Major League Baseball with his presence. The folk tale of a chubby catcher than picked off runners without looking and never struck out came to the big leagues and initially started as an outfielder, third basemen, and second basemen. Now settled into a utility role, and backup catcher, Astudillo has seen regular run down the stretch.
     
    It's just a 23 game sample size, but the .877 OPS is certainly eye opening. It's hard to imagine Minnesota carrying three catches on Opening Day next season, but there's worse ways to use a 40 man roster spot early on in November. This could very well end up being the last we hear of Astudillo, or he could continue to be an out-of-nowhere spark for a Twins team eyeing the Postseason a year from now.
     
    Fernando Romero - SP
     
    First it was Jose Berrios, and then it was Fernando Romero. When it came to Twins starting pitching prospects, those were the cream of the crop. Romero's electric fastball has pushed him into the conversation of a true ace, and he looked the part in small bursts this season.
     
    The numbers themselves are all unremarkable, and he didn't light Triple-A on fire after returning. That said, the 55.2 IP in the majors as a 23 year old should prove invaluable when setting him up for future success. I'd imagine the Twins front office will be looking to upgrade the rotation again this winter, and that likely keeps Fernando at Rochester on Opening Day, As a first man up however, that's a heck of an arm to turn to.
     
    The Best of the Rest- Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, and Adnrew Vasquez
     
    None of these guys got much time to really cement any sort of significant expectations for the year ahead. Littell, Gonsalves, and Stewart should all open 2019 in the Triple-A rotation, and getting a look at big league talent could do wonders for their offseason preparation. While none of them have dominant stuff, honing in on command and pitchability should continue to remain a key focus for them. Again noting the Twins depth, there's at least one capable big league starter in this trio, and Minnesota having them to turn to next season isn't a bad thing at all.
     
    Vasquez was the lone rookie to get a relief chance this season. Working just 2.0 IP despite entering six games, manager Paul Molitor obviously displayed a short leash. Over such a small sample size you can't draw any definitive conclusions, but it's more than apparent that the meteoric rise from High-A to start the year was impressive. At every level, Vasquez posted massive strikeout totals and tended to keep his walks in check. If he can replicate a portion of that for the Twins, they'll have developed a nice pen piece.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    With this week signifying the last of the 2018 Major League Baseball regular season, we very well could be watching the final games of Joe Mauer's career. Yet to indicate or announce his intentions for 2019, the Minnesota Twins longtime star has compiled quite a resume. Over the course of this season, he's surpassed plenty of the legends and greats before him throughout Twins history. Trying to narrate that tale is one I'd fall short of, but the numbers do some significant justice.
     
    Although the meat and potatoes of Joe's career is how he's been a lunch pail type player, that's come to work every day, and simply got the job done. He put together a 7-10 year stretch in which he was on par with Johnny Bench for the title of greatest catcher the game has ever seen. He reinvented himself and became a defensive wizard at first base. He's had ups, and he's had downs. Wherever along the journey you'd like to examine though, the final tallies are nothing short of impressive.
     
    Joe is who he has always been, and the living legend isn't ever going to acknowledge his rightful place in Twins Territory. We can do that for him though, simply by using his merits.
    .306 career average- 3rd all time for the Twins. Behind Carew and Puckett
    1011 runs- 3rd all time for the Twins. Behind Killebrew and Puckett
    .388 on-base percentage- 3rd all time for the Twins. Behind Carew and Knoblauch
    2,114 hits- 2nd all time for the Twins. Behind only Puckett
    599 extra-base hits- 4th all time for the Twins. Behind Killebrew, Puckett, and Hrbek
    1,852 games- 2nd all time for the Twins. Behind only Killebrew
    3,073 times on base- 1st all time for the Twins.
    2009 American League Most Valuable Player
    3-time (2008-10) American League Gold Glove Winner- Catcher
    5-time (2006, 2008-10, 2013) American League Silver Slugger Winner- Catcher
    3-time American League Batting Champion- Only AL C to ever do so. Only C to ever do it 3 times.
    6-time (2006, 2008-10, 2012-13) All Star- American League Starting Catcher
    2009 Sports Illustrated MLB All-Decade Team
    Baseball America Major League Player of the Year (2009)
    Career 49.1 fWAR
    Career valuation of $306.9MM compared to $218.025MM career earnings
    Career .995 Fielding % as a C ranks 8th all time
    Career .996 Fielding % as 1B ranks 5th all time
    2006-2013 hit .327/.410/.473 with a 139 OPS+
    Would be third 1st Overall pick to make Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, joining Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones.

    Selfishly, I hope this isn't the end. I want to see Joe back in 2019 for what should be a competitive season in Twins Territory. Regardless what happens, the list above is otherworldly, and it's been a joy to watch it unfold.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    As a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, or IBWAA, each year the group is tasked with voting on end of season awards. Having now been a part of the voting process for the past few years, it's always fun to see where we stand in comparison to the BBWAA. In 2018, there's been so many strong seasons from veterans and rookies alike, this one of the most exciting ballots to fill out in recent memory.
     
    Ballots are due back to the IBWAA by September 30, but I have already filed my vote. Despite their being a couple of weeks left in the 2018 Major League Baseball season, I'm comfortable with my suggestions for who should take home each award. I'll revisit my selections upon the announcement of final totals later this fall, but here's who I have in each of the ten categories.
     
    AL MVP
    Mike Trout- Angels
    Others receiving votes- Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, Matt Chapman, J.D. Ramiez, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer
     
    While Mookie Betts has had an incredible season of his own, there's no player in baseball whose team suffers more when they aren't on the field than Mike Trout. He's a revolutionary talent, and with a relative tie in statistical categories compared to Betts, the "Most Valuable" definition came into play for me here.
     
    AL Cy Young
    Chris Sale- Red Sox
    Others receiving votes- Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber
     
    In his third season with the Red Sox, Sale should finally nab his first Cy Young Award. Having came up short many seasons previously, this campaign is one for the ages. He's got a career high strikeout rate, and has paired that with a career low ERA. One of the greatest we'll ever see pitch, Sale takes home the hardware.
     
    AL ROY
    Shohei Ohtani- Angels
    Others receiving votes- Miguel Andujar, Joey Wendle
     
    There was a time that it appeared Miguel Andujar had this award wrapped up, then Ohtani returned from injury. The two-way phenom has put up nearly identical numbers to the Yankees third basemen, despite 40+ less games. Oh, and he was also an ace level pitcher over the course of 10 starts this season. Shohei will need surgery after 2018, but the award should help to legitimize how special this season was.
     
    AL Manager
    Alex Cora- Red Sox
    Others receiving votes- A.J. Hinch, Aaron Boone
     
    Sure the Red Sox have a ridiculous amount of talent on their major league roster, but Cora is still tasked with having it all come together. In his first season, Cora has Boston over 100 wins and looking like the team to beat in all of baseball.
     
    AL Reliever
    Edwin Diaz- Mariners
    Others receiving votes- Blake Treinen, Craig Kimbrel
     
    Diaz is breathing down the neck of Francisco Rodriguez's single-season saves record (62), and hasn't gotten there by any cheap measure. The strikeout rate, walk rate, and ERA are all elite. Although the playoffs are out of the picture for the Mariners, this is going to be a year to remember for the closer.
     
    NL MVP
    Javier Baez- Cubs
    Others receiving votes- Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Lorenzo Cain, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Trevor Story, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Scooter Gennett
     
    This season, the National League has quite a group at the top of the leaderboards. Although they all fall short of the American League race, this collection is tightly contested among themselves. Baez jumps off the page as a difference maker for the Cubs, and is a large part as to why they own the best record in the NL.
     
    NL Cy Young
    Jacob deGrom- Mets
    Others receiving votes- Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, Patrick Corbin, Mike Foltynewicz
     
    Wins be damned, there's really no argument to make against the Mets ace taking home the NY Cy Young. deGrom hasn't been gifted run support in virtually any of his outings, but his level of dominance transcends the final tally in the box score.
     
    NL ROY
    Ronald Acuna- Braves
    Others receiving votes- Juan Soto, Walker Buehler
     
    Given the meteoric rise Atlanta has seen in 2018, it's almost fair to wonder whether Acuna belongs in the MVP discussion. Despite missing some time during the middle of the year, Acuna has been nothing short of exceptional while on the field. At just 20 years old, this should be the first of many awards coming to him over the course of a long career.
     
    NL Manager
    Joe Maddon- Cubs
    Others receiving votes- Brian Snitker, Bud Black
     
    The Cubs haven't been the dominant team they were back in 2016, but the best record in the National League is going to send them to the postseason nonetheless. This collection has a shot to bring another championship to Chicago, and Joe Maddon continues to be best suited in helping them achieve that goal.
     
    NL Reliever
    Josh Hader- Brewers
    Others receiving votes- Adam Ottavino, Jeremy Jeffress
     
    Following up a strong rookie debut season, Hader hasn't slowed down at all in 2018. The dominant lefty fans batters at an incredible rate, and has helped to give Milwaukee one of the fiercest relief duos in all of baseball.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the past few seasons, it's been fun to watch the emergence of a few arms for the Minnesota Twins. While starting pitching is obviously the premium you'd like to corner, talent in the relief corps is where some unusual suspects have emerged. From Ryan Pressly to Trevor Hildenberger, the 2018 culprit is a guy that already showed some promise a season ago.
     
    Lefty Taylor Rogers has become a mainstay in the Twins bullpen, and after a 3.07 ERA across 55.2 IP during 2017, that was a realistic expectation. As a 27 year-old without much prospect fanfare though, it was safe to question whether the numbers could hold. Utilized best as a lefty on lefty specialist last year, the 3.4 BB/9 provided some reason for pause. While Rogers enjoyed a sparkling ERA, the 4.09 FIP told a different story, and the 7.9 K/9 was nearly a 2.0 K/9 dropoff from his rookie campaign.
     
    Fast forward to 2018 and Rogers looks the part of a difference maker. On the year, he owns a 2.92 ERA across 61.2 IP. His 9.9 K/9 is a career high while the 2.0 BB/9 is a career low. In a credit to Taylor, he's also handled himself very well against batters from both sides of the plate this season. Seeing 136 plate appearances versus righties, he's given up a .675 OPS. Against lefties in 102 plate appearances opponents have tallied a .439 OPS. Those numbers are both down nearly 100 points from where they were in the same situations a season ago.
     
    Judging by the splits, it's safe to suggest that Taylor can be much more than a LOOGY for Minnesota. The former 11th round pick probably wasn't assumed to be a back end of the bullpen option, but he's certainly pitched himself into the high leverage conversation. Despite not being cut from the blazing fastball cloth, Rogers has turned to pitch quality in order to get big league batters out.
     
    Improving on his pitches as a whole, batters have helped to advance his cause on the mound as well. A 32% chase rate is a new career high, and he is now getting swinging strikes 10.9% of the time (a 3% jump from his rookie season). The former Wildcat is seeing contact against him at the lowest rate of his career, and batters are generating hard contact only 31.2% of the time (which has also led to a career low 6.7 HR/FB).
     
    With Minnesota having transformed the bullpen yet again this year, 2019 is going to be rip with new opportunity. Trevor Hildenberger, Addison Reed, and Rogers are among the few certainties. From there the front office will need to acquire or decide upon internal options once again. Having a guy like Rogers step up into a role that can provide accountability from the get go is a very nice development.
     
    No matter what level of loss is experience during a down season, being able to generate productivity and some level of certainty for the future is a must. Minnesota has a few areas they can point to along that thread from 2018, and Rogers should be chief among them.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Heading into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins will once again have the luxury of spending some money. With very little committed to the 2019 payroll, I’d imagine the front office will target something close to the 2018 Opening Day number when the dust settles. Having the luxury of a team composed of players still in arbitration years helps to provide financial flexibility. It’s worth wondering where it will be allocated this time around.
     
    Last offseason, it was hard to suggest that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did anything short of knocking the ball out of the park. They were in on the most premiere free agent talent, and began the season with a strong influx of ability. As we saw this season, many of those acquisitions didn’t work out, and that’s why the year went as it did. While each player had their own shortcomings, one thing worth coming back to is the talk of one-year deals.
     
    It has been brought up multiple times down the stretch that the Twins clubhouse was somewhat toxic this year. Having signed multiple guys on one-year deals, it’s worth wondering if there wasn’t more of a focus on a “me” game intended to land the next real paycheck. This winter, I’d imagine Minnesota would be more focused on landing guys believed to help the organization in the long term, and given a financial commitment to do so.
     
    Although there’s plenty still up in the air as to how the 2019 Opening Day roster will look, here’s a free agent addition for each position group that could make a whole lot of sense:
     
    Starting Pitcher- Patrick Corbin
     
    To the casual observer, Dallas Keuchel is likely the big name when it comes to the 2019 free agent pitching crop. He’s not the Cy Young winner he was a few years ago, and he’s settled into more of a number two type role. What Keuchel does present is a good deal of consistency and reliability. I’d imagine he’ll be paid handsomely, and think there’s probably a better option out there.
     
    Corbin is a year younger than the Astros starter, and he has had an incredible 2018. His 3.01 ERA and 11.2 K/9 are more than worthy of salivating over. What’s holding the Diamondbacks starter back is the lack of a true track record. He was pretty mediocre in 2017, and downright poor the season before that. Over the course of his career though, strikeouts have been a thing he can generate, and limiting walks has been a pretty safe bet. Teams will need to push down his ask a bit by noting that lack of consistency, but he’s the guy I’d pay for.
     
    The Twins have run out more than a handful of starters once again this season, and only Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson should be 2019 rotation locks. Fernando Romero should be a mainstay and take another step forward, while the emergence of an arm from the group of Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalves, Chase De Jong, and others would be a nice realization. Bringing in another top half hurler on a long-term deal makes sense for the Twins, and this could be their guy.
     
    Other possibilities: Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, Hyun-Jin Ryu
     
    Relief Pitcher: Kelvin Herrera
     
    In 2019, Minnesota shed a ton of talent out of the bullpen. Guys like Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke were brought in on one-year deals making them expendable. Ryan Pressly, one of the best relief arms in baseball, was capitalized on in the form of a nice prospect return. Regardless of where they’re at now, the reality is that the Twins will need to re-tool.
     
    Addison Reed will be in the final year of his deal, and the hope would be that he could rebound from a disastrous 2018. Taylor Rogers and Trevor Hildenberger look the part of developed talent, and should be able to bolster the back end of ball games. From there though, it’s a significant amount of question marks. Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, and John Curtiss are getting to the point where feeling them out needs to produce results. Jake Reed and Nick Anderson should’ve already had a look, and Gabriel Moya must show more stuff than deception.
     
    While signing relievers to long-term deals is never an ideal scenario, one or two coming in on two-year pacts makes some sense. In Herrera, the Twins would be getting a guy that throws hard, and knows the division. Kelvin has previous closer experience, and would be an immediate boost to the back end of the pen. There are a few other names that could be a fit, but this is the combination of stuff and results that jumps off the page for me.
     
    Other possibilities: Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino
     
    Starting Lineup: Eduardo Escobar
     
    Trying to decipher how the Twins will line up to start 2019 is quite the question mark. There are plenty of bodies to put into positions, but the reality is that expectations are left unfulfilled all over the place. Miguel Sano needs a committed offseason, and Byron Buxton needs a bill of health. Does Joe Mauer return in a limited role, and what are the thoughts behind the plate?
     
    From where we sit today, I think we can safely consider Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano to be starters. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should be the second wave of near certainties, and that leaves just a handful of openings. What Minnesota does at first base remains to be seen, and the options aren’t ideal. Second base is open, and Nick Gordon doesn’t appear ready. Jason Castro should be back behind the plate with Mitch Garver spelling him, but it’s worth considering an upgrade.
     
    As crazy as it sounds, the best fit from a constructive standpoint is superstar Manny Machado. He moves Sano to first, gets a mega deal from a team with money to spend, and becomes a cornerstone for a budding organization. It’s hard to live in that reality, so the next step down (and an obvious significant one) is the return of Eduardo Escobar. He can play second or third regularly, and his midline is one that still remains above league average.
    The Twins front office probably has some relationship equity to regain here, but that’s not something that will be new to them this winter.
     
    Other possibilities: Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, D.J. LeMahieu, Wilson Ramos
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins front office is sure making a habit of blundering important decisions here in September. With respect to Byron Buxton, and the late season promotions, there's plenty of head-scratching and hand-wringing to be observed. At this current juncture, it's maybe worth speculating if everyone isn't on the same page?
    Over the course of the 2018 major league season, I have found myself as a supporter of the new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had an exceptional offseason, and they positioned this Twins club for success in the current season. As everything has gone up in flames however, their responses have seemed less than satisfactory. Now as real adversity creeps in, we may be seeing some cracks in the armor as well.
     
    Obviously the biggest misstep thus far has been the handling of Byron Buxton. This isn't the space to rehash that situation, but I believe I did a good job of explaining the situation here. Looking back at it however, something has stuck out to me, and that's the quote from Thad Levine to Mike Berardino. Minnesota's GM said, “Their recourse has not been laid out to us. They’re certainly entitled to whatever they think is in the best interest of Byron Buxton. From this day forward, I think we recognize a responsibility to make amends and that we’re going to need to invest in the relationship with Byron Buxton. We understand this is a blow to the player, a potential blow to the relationship."
     
    In analyzing that quote, it's hard not to wonder why the Twins GM is being so open and candid about the situation as a whole. He talked about service time implications to the media as well, and the suggestion that this team decision could be potentially damaging to a long term relationship speaks volumes. As the only member of the front office to speak on the decision thus far, it's hard not to speculate as to whether Thad is simply acting as the orator here, and there's some dissension in the room.
     
    Derek Falvey is 35 years-old and holds the title of Chief Baseball Officer for the Minnesota Twins. His top rank previously was the title of Assistant General Manager for the Cleveland Indians. While he's obviously skilled and qualified for the role in which he's been enlisted, there's also an equally capable and qualified network of support around him. When making such delicate decisions, it's more than fair to wonder whether or not his peers all jump onto the same page.
     
    When it comes to head-scratching options, Minnesota embarked on another when they revealed their full list of September call-ups. On top of the egregious missing name in Buxton, neither Nick Anderson or Jake Reed saw their names included among the group either. The Twins are currently 63-74, 14.0 games out of the AL Central, and have nothing left to play for in 2018. With those parameters, September immediately becomes a breeding ground for acclimation and assimilation with talent that could prove useful on the 2019 Opening Day roster. Except the Twins chose to forego that route.
     
    It's great that John Curtiss, Chase De Jong and Tyler Duffey found themselves recalled, but so too did Chris Gimenez, Gregorio Petit, and Johnny Field. The latter three players represent veteran retreads that have no real value on a big league bench. Given the current state of the team in Minnesota, Mitch Garver or Jake Cave losing at bats to that duo seems counter productive. On top of that, the Twins left a stocked cupboard and closed the door. There's two spots still open on the 40 man roster, and of the 40 spots available on the active roster in September, only used 34 of them.
     
    Anderson, a Minnesota native, turned in a 3.30 ERA, 13.2 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 across 60.0 IP for Triple-A Rochester this season. Jake Reed posted a 1.89 ERA and 9.4 K/9 in 47.2 IP, and owned an even better 1.16 ERA in his last 31.0 IP. After signing multiple relief arms to short term deals this winter, squeezing out all the available talent within the organization seems like a smart blueprint. Given that neither now have an opportunity at the major league level in September, their afforded sample size will be a minimal one during big league camp (assuming they are invited, and still around).
     
    Without being behind closed doors, it's impossible to know what Derek Falvey's impact on each decision is. It's also unfair to assume how he is viewed by his peers. What is absolutely certain though, is that there's a danger to always believing you're the smartest person in any given room. If the operating tactics are less collaborative than the amount the term has been used by the head honcho, it's hard to see how lackluster buy in is a positive.
     
    Maybe Levine's comments surrounding Buxton are nothing more than they appear on the surface. Maybe no one in the front office saw the idea to waste the opportunity September roster expansion provides as a bad thing. Maybe everyone truly is on the same page. If that's the case though, we might be in even more trouble than it seems.
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    After recently writing a piece at Twins Daily about the Twins doing the unthinkable and playing the service time game with Byron Buxton, Thad Levine came out and said that's exactly what's going to take place. Minnesota's horrible "This is how we baseball" has been mocked all season long, thanks to lackluster performance and confusing decisions, but I really didn't expect something to take the cake in September.
     
    I have been quite vocal about my support of the Twins new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had a stellar offseasons. They've acquired some very shrewd talent in trades, and they've helped to infuse an organization with new trains of thought. Where I've disagreed, also vocally, has been on the handling of in season roster decisions. Everything from Ryan LaMarre playing in 40 meaningful games, to Matt Belisle being valued for leadership and throwing out ability, to Paul Molitor still looking like a fish out of water when it comes to any form of strategy. All of those situations are trumped by this Buxton decision however.
     
    Thad Levine attempted to prepare us for this self-sabotage by suggesting that Byron was still "playing through" thinks, and Molitor was non-committal when it came to his September plan. When Darren Wolfson dropped the bomb officially though, no amount of preparation helped to ease the lunacy.
     
    Although Levine tried to gray out his obvious admission of guilt when it came to service time manipulation, his quote to Mike Berardino was all that needed to be said, "I think part of our jobs is we’re supposed to be responsible to factoring service time into every decision we make. ... We wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we weren’t at least aware of service-time impacts on decisions we make."
     
    So, now that there's finality to this ridiculous move front the front office, here's shooting down every sensible retort coming out of Twins Territory:
     
    Manipulating service time makes sense, the Cubs did it with Kris Bryant and the Blue Jays are currently doing so with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
     
    In and of itself, nothing about the above situation is wrong. Garnering extra service time from your elite prospects is something every franchise should look to stretch out. However, comparing Buxton to those situations is one that suggests a lack of understanding surrounding contracts and how baseball development takes places. Uber-prospects having service time manipulated takes place BEFORE they debut at the big league level. Whether trying to stretch out another year of arbitration or avoid Super 2 status, it's in or before major league debuts that this stuff takes place. Byron Buxton was an uber-prospect, but he's currently 300-plus games into his big league career. You aren't manipulating in hopes of what could be coming at this point.
     
    Buxton is actually hurt, and Minnesota wants him to start 2019 healthy.
     
    That's a really convenient avenue for a franchise to take after Buxton missed a large portion of the 2018 season because the Twins didn't care. After breaking his foot, the Twins needed their Platinum Glove winner back so badly that they allowed him to play in 17 games despite an inability to swing without pain. On top of that, Buxton still being hurt hasn't shown up in the box score at Rochester. He owned a .996 OPS since his activation following the wrist injury, and was being asked to play on nearly a nightly basis. Unless there's some injury that occurs when crossing state lines, merit is nowhere to be found on this one.
     
    Has Buxton actually earned anything? He owns the 3rd lowest OPS among MLB hitters with 90 PAs in 2018, and had just a .787 OPS in 35 games for Rochester.
     
    Defining whether or not a player has earned or is owed something is likely a reflection of personal preference. From this vantage point though, healthy players play, and the best ones get the most run. Buxton is an elite outfielder, and is no doubt one of the most important pieces to the Minnesota lineup. He was awful to start the year, and then was hurt for a significant portion of the rest. With a month left to go, allowing a guy to catch up with as many imperative at bats as possible seems like common sense. Sometimes though, those things aren't so common.
     
    Getting another year of team control for Byron in 2022 is more important than a month's worth of ABs during a lost season.
     
    Here's another one that has real merit when viewing the sentiment in a vacuum. Yes, when Buxton is a superstar in all facets of the game in 2022, it'd be great for Minnesota to have contractual flexibility with their player. Unfortunately, the thought that a guy with 300-plus games under his belt needs a reset, has to get going at Triple-A, and isn't worthy of MLB at bats in September doesn't jive with said player being a superstar. In short, if you're worried about how good Buxton is in 2022, then you should absolutely be all in on him being provided every avenue for development in the here and now. Contradiction doesn't get to be separated for the purpose of sensibility.
     
    On top of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine making such an error in judgement, they've continued to double-down with the poor public disseminations. Levine suggested that Byron is still very much a part of the Twins future, and the front office hopes to "make amends" with him soon. It's very true that money talks and a hefty arbitration raise could do wonders for smoothing things over. It's also entirely plausible that Buxton laughs at the thought that the organization is again suddenly looking out for his best interested after entirely screwing him over.
     
    Then there's the manager, Paul Molitor. When addressing the media prior to their game on September 2nd, Molitor suggested it isn't a given that Buxton is the 2019 centerfielder for the Twins. He went on to note lots of competition and a bit more political jargon. Maybe Molitor forgot that this is the reigning Platinum Glove winner, and the best defensive centerfielder in baseball. Jake Cave has been a great addition to Minnesota's stable, but he's not supplanting Byron's future. This also reverts back to the contradictory suggestion that 2022 is an important year of team control, despite a lack of belief in 2019 and beyond.
     
    With Rochester having two games left on their schedule, the resident major leaguer packed up his bags and began his offseason. Byron has become the face of public ridicule for a decision derived from a poor front office decision. He's not bailing on anyone, it isn't a "me first" mentality, and questioning his team attitude is shortsighted. His bosses left him out to dry, and then went on allowing him to twist in the wind as the fruits of their failure come to light.
     
    I'd imagine that Buxton's agents have made calls to the front office already. MLB Players Association Executive Director Tony Clark should be helping Byron to draft a grievance as we speak. This isn't a decision that can come down without recourse, and siding with billionaire owners never should sit right with millionaire players.
    At the end of the day, the hope should still be that Byron Buxton turns into the superstar his prospect status alluded to. While that chapter is yet to be written, there's going to need to be a significant amount of relationship capital built back up for the player to trust an organization that no longer looked out for his best interests.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins went the route of signing multiple veterans on one year deals to supplement their relief corps for 2018. Now that the season has taken a different turn, all of those players have been shipped out to greener pastures. For 2019 and beyond, a goal of the organization has to be finding the next Trevor Hildenberger or Ryan Pressly. As things stand currently, there's a duo of dandies that have begun to stand above the rest.
     
    Whether or not the Twins have a proven closer going into 2019 isn't of much worry to me. More importantly, does the club have a handful of guys capable of pitching in high leverage situations. Despite his stumbles at times down the stretch, Trevor Hildenberger has rounded out into exactly that type of player. Addison Reed will return for year two, and the hope is that he'd rebound to look more like his former self. The Twins should be feeling that they can turn to the likes of Trevor May and Taylor Rogers in those situations as well.
     
    Rogers was an 11th round pick back in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft. He's now 27 years old and in his third major league season. Despite posting a 3.44 ERA (which is higher than the 3.07 mark from 2017), his secondary numbers are outstanding. The 2.41 FIP is a career low and comes in 15th among all qualified big league relievers. His 10.3 K/9 is a full strikeout higher than his career average, and his 2.2 BB/9 is a new career best as well.
     
    As a lefty Rogers has proved serviceable against hitters from both sides of the plate. Left-handed hitters have zero chance, owning just a .422 OPS, but the .781 OPS to righties isn't awful either. He's giving up both the fewest hits and homers of his career, and it's hard to be anything less than excited about his outlook.
     
    Owning just 93.8 mph average velocity on his fastball, it's not that Rogers is much of a flamethrower. With his long and lanky stature, he has a good bit of deception working in his favor. The arm slot hides the ball well, and he can get in on hitters in a hurry. I'd prefer not to see Minnesota tab Rogers solely for a 9th inning role, but he's far more than a standard LOOGY as well. Deploying him in a role similar to Ryan Pressly, just a fireman to get guys out, should yield plenty positive results.
     
    From the other side of the glove, the recently rehabbed Trevor May has been fantastic. It's just been 9.2 IP over the course of 9 appearances, but May is laying waste to opposing hitters. An 11.2 K/9 is enticing, but the 1.9 BB/9 is a new career best that really jumps off the page. Working solely as a reliever in 2016 prior to Tommy John surgery, May's profile had a lot to like. The strikeouts were there, and the FIP suggested the 5.27 ERA wasn't entirely his fault. That said, he was giving up too many walks (3.6 BB/9) and the 1.5 HR/9 was a problem.
     
    There's reason to like May's profile as a starter, but it's hard to ignore what he can provide out of the bullpen. On the season, he's generating whiffs nearly 20% of the time, and hitters are chasing his pitches just under 40% of the time. He's shaved 10% off of his allowed contact rate (63%) and the nearly 95 mph fastball velocity matches up with where he was prior to surgery.
     
    Acquired as a top prospect years ago, Minnesota likely had visions of May being an impact starter. If he's capable of providing this profile in a more lengthy role that's one thing, but if he's a back end option I'd prefer to see him stick in relief. May has the repertoire and output of a guy who can close out games in the 9th, or be an upper echelon setup man. Again, this is a very small sample size thus far in 2018, but continuing through September would only give steam to the hype train.
     
    Heading into 2019, the Twins will need to solidify a rotation that has more questions than answers once again. The bullpen has been an area needing improvement in recent years though, and seeing some internal arms step up and take command is more than encouraging. It hurt to lose quality pieces this year, but credit those who have stepped up and made the most of new found opportunity.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have allowed Kohl Stewart to make his major league debut, and Stephen Gonsalves will now join that company. Fernando Romero got that treatment earlier this season, and it sounds like Paul Molitor isn't suggesting a slow down any time soon. With the Twins out of it in the big leagues, and Rochester all but eliminated at Triple-A, opportunities lie ahead.
     
    Joel Sinner and the Rochester Red Wings play their last game on September 3. From that point forward, Minnesota has ample roster spots and 25 games before the end of their 2018 season. Making use of those games in a way that helps to bring a semblance of clarity prior to 2019 spring training seems of the utmost importance. Although the Red Wings have struggled as a club this season, there's plenty of talent deserving of a big league look.
     
    Here are some names to ponder:
     
    Nick Gordon- 2B/SS
     
    At points during 2018, it seemed Gordon would open the 2019 season as Minnesota's starting second basemen. He posted a .906 OPS at Double-A and was promoted to Triple-A. Since reaching Rochester though, Gordon has struggled mightily. He owns just a .208/.249/.284 slash line and has not seen any consistent success. Even though it may be good for his long term development to get him a major league perspective, it's hard to see Minnesota ignoring that he's been so poor offensively at the highest level of the farm. Gordon is not on the 40 man roster and would need to be accommodated that way as well.
     
    LaMonte Wade- OF
     
    Similar to Gordon, Wade posted strong numbers at Double-A (.837) only to slide at Triple-A (.712 OPS). Wade did miss time this season due to injury, but he's back healthy and playing right now. What Wade does have going for him is that he's an on-base machine. His .357 OBP bolsters his Rochester line, and although there's not a ton of power there, he can be a gap hitter at the next level. Wade swings it from the left side of the plate, and looks the part of a fourth outfielder. He'll likely be in competition with Jake Cave next spring, and both should make Robbie Grossman plenty expendable. LaMonte is not on the 40 man roster either, but adding him wouldn't be a stretch.
     
    Jake Reed- RP
     
    After looking like he was on the cusp of making it to The Show last season, a spring training injury derailed his 2017. Now healthy and effective in 2018, it's time the former Oregon Duck gets his shot. Across 40.1 IP for Rochester this season, Reed owns a 2.23 ERA and an 8.7 K/9. He throws hard and should have the ability to miss big league bats. Walks have become more of an issue over the past two seasons, but this could be a late bloomer that settles into the pen nicely. Jake is not currently on the Twins 40 man roster.
     
    Luke Bard- RP
     
    Minnesota initially lost Bard in the Rule 5 draft when the Los Angeles Angels selected him. He got just 11.2 IP for the Angels and turned in a 5.40 ERA. The 10.0 K/9 was good, but he was bit by a 3.9 BB/9. In 40.1 IP for Rochester, Bard owns a 5.13 ERA. Again the combination of walks (3.6 BB/9) and hits (9.8 H/9) have negated a nice 9.6 K/9. The spin rate on his pitches is plenty intriguing, and the stuff has always appeared to be there. At 27 though, this could be a sink or swim moment for his chance with the Twins.
     
    Nick Anderson- RP
     
    At 28 years old, the Minnesota native and former 32nd round pick could see all of the hard work finally come together. Anderson reached Triple-A this season, and has a 3.61 ERA across 52.1 IP. The 13.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 numbers jump off the page, although his 1.4 HR/9 could hurt him at the next level. Anderson isn't likely to be a high leverage guy, but he could find himself turning some heads if the minor league numbers continue to play.
     
    Michael Pineda- SP
     
    Signed on a shrewd two-year deal by Minnesota, Pineda is being paid just $2MM this season to rehab from Tommy John surgery. He's already made two turns at High-A Fort Myers, and should get starts a couple of rungs up before August comes to a close. The outings have been sharp, and the velocity reports have been promising. He'd need to be reinstated from the 60-day DL, but his 40 man roster spot isn't an issue given he'll be on the Twins active roster in 2019 on an $8MM deal.
     
    Lewis Thorpe- SP
     
    The next in line when it comes to bigger name pitching prospects that the Twins have developed is none other than Lewis Thorpe. The Aussie missed two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and then illness, but has gotten back and rounded into form nicely. He made 22* (one with an opener) starts at Double-A this season and posted a 3.58 ERA. His 10.9 K/9 was plenty impressive, and he handed out walks at just a 2.5 K/9 rate. Thus far, Thorpe has made one start at Triple-A, and he turned in a quality outing. Lewis is coming up on a 40 IP increase from 2017 and could be shut down soon, but if Minnesota wants to get him a turn in the majors, he is already on the 40 man.
     
    Chase De Jong- SP
     
    Acquired from the Mariners this season, De Jong did pitch 28.1 innings for Seattle early in the year. Since joining the Twins organization, he's made four appearances (two starts) totaling 22.0 IP for Rochester. The 3.68 ERA is respectable and he's posted a pedestrian 7.4 K/9. I'm not sure there's much in the form of strikeout stuff here, but De Jong should be plenty capable at the back end of a rotation. He's already on the 40 man and it seems he's ready to get a few big league turns. Obviously the Twins liked him enough to target him as a trade piece, and there should be opportunity for him to get a look in September.
     
    For most of the guys mentioned, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would need to facilitate 40 man roster moves. Luckily the Twins have plenty of options in that regard. Ervin Santana and Matt Belisle can both be placed on the 60-day DL. Logan Morrison could easily join that dup, and depending on how he's progression, Aaron Slegers could find himself there as well. It's too late in the year for a DFA of Robbie Grossman to make sense, but Johnny Field could soon see that fate if a spot is needed.
     
    While the club plays out the rest of the string, there should be plenty of new and fresh faces seen on the diamond for Minnesota. Getting some early answers for the year ahead would be a very worthwhile undertaking.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays completed the deal that sent Chris Archer to the Buccos. With a PTBNL up in the air, Shanez Baz ended up being the final piece to the blockbuster. This whole situation remains relevant in the context of the Minnesota Twins due to conversations surrounding the Rays former ace and Minnesota slugger Miguel Sano.
     
    Over the summer there were multiple headlines that linked the two organizations with regards to trade talks. Twins fans were down on Sano coming off injury and poor decisions this offseason. Even with those developments however there seemed to be plenty of voices that hoped Sano could be the centerpiece of a swap. 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson quickly shot that down suggesting Tampa had "no interest," and there should've never been a belief to the contrary.
     
    Fast forward to where we are today, and we've now seen it took a trip to Single-A Fort Myers for Miguel to once again look motivated in the big leagues. Weight issues aside, his buy in and commitment towards being as great as he can be has long been the crux of his issues. Making the large leap, based on a very small sample size, that he's on the right track now, plenty still remains up in the air for Sano.
     
    Regardless of what Sano rounds into though, and even considering that being an All Star level slugger, Tampa was going to command a haul. Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz have all appeared on national top prospect lists. Giving that trio some Minnesota context, the Rays would've been targeting something along the lines of Fernando Romero, Alex Kirilloff, and Stephen Gonsalves. Even if you don't know prospects, that's a group of names that likely ring a bell for most casual Minnesota followers.
     
    The reality of the situation is that while Archer hasn't yet reached the pinnacle of what you'd hope he can be, there's a strong possibility that an ace level talent lies within. At 29 years old, he is under contract through 2019 and the combined $20MM in team options through 2021 are more the team friendly. Simply put, there isn't a pitcher on the open market that will equal Archer's level of enticement for the next couple of seasons.
     
    This is really a situation where hindsight isn't necessary. Miguel Sano was never going to be enough to land Archer, but it was silly at the time and is now as well. Had the Twins shifted to include the prospect package above, things would be quite dire given the performance throughout 2018. Although this same squad should have a very real opportunity to compete in 2019, it's players like those mentioned in that prospect package that should begin to establish themselves as regular big leaguers in 2020. Having Archer while depleting the system and not seeing the fruits of those labors would be a tough pill to swallow.
     
    It'll be interesting to see how this all works out for the Pirates. Pittsburgh still has some nice pieces on the farm, and they've graduated some solid players, but they're in a middle ground that I'm not sure Archer solves. Tampa is chasing the top of a very good division and adding that much talent is going to make the road much easier for them in the future.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins shipped their closer Fernando Rodney to the Oakland Athletics recently. Prior to his departure, he was the only pitcher on the roster to record a save. Over the weekend Trevor Hildenberger joined his graces picking up his first on the year, and second of his career. With no real closer in tow, it’s time for Paul Molitor to open the floodgates and utilize this opportunity.
     
    Going into 2019 the expectation should be that the Twins can once again be competitive. The same core that was expected to be relied upon this season remains intact. If the offense rebounds to sufficient levels, while being supplemented with some outside talent, this collection is going to make waves in the AL Central. What does absolutely need to be addressed however is the relief core and status of the bullpen.
     
    Coming into 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine helped Minnesota’s skipper by supplementing the pen. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, and Rodney were all brought in to help turn around a collection that had underperformed the year prior. By acquiring two thirds of that group on one-year deals, the Twins were able to benefit from them either as pieces part of a playoff run, or assets to acquire more talent. This winter the front office will find themselves in a similar situation, again looking to stockpile that type of talent. Who they’ll be paired with remains up in the air, and that’s where the current opportunity presents itself.
     
    It doesn’t much matter who racks up saves for Minnesota the rest of the way, but it’s integral for a host of arms to be showcased in high leverage situations. Trevor May has looked great since his promotion from Triple-A Rochester following his Tommy John rehab. Tyler Duffey has always seemed like a decent option at the back of a pen, and Taylor Rogers has been arguably the Twins best reliever this season. Trevor Hildenberger has slipped of late but is incredible when on, and Matt Magill has come out of nowhere this season to command much more work than he’s gotten.
     
    Stopping with the names currently on the 25-man roster does little for me however. At 53-64 Rochester isn’t going to make the Triple-A postseason. Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, and Nick Anderson are all options worth exploring. Busenitz hasn’t ever gotten a chance to acclimate at the big-league level this season, while Curtiss has only experienced the majors in a very muted sense. Reed dealt with injuries that have delayed his debut, but his numbers have begged for an opportunity long enough. Anderson remains a flier that is worth experimenting with during this time of little consequence as well.
     
    There’s no reason to suggest that Molitor be tasked with managing a bullpen full of fresh faces and demanded each of them record time in the 9th inning. Having this collection up on the big-league roster and called upon in late game situations does make a lot of sense however. Prioritizing the current big-league roster, and guys that will assuredly be relied upon next year is a must, but the more opportunities for new arms to be tested the better.
     
    Minnesota found something solid in guys like Hildenberger and Rogers because they were given a chance to prove themselves. Rather than waiting to see if those opportunities present themselves in a fresh slate next season, now looks like as beneficial of a time as ever. There’s plenty of poor competition on the Twins schedule the rest of the way, and at this point the results don’t much matter. Seeing relief arms filter into the Target Field clubhouse at a very high rate the rest of the way would be something Minnesota fans should absolutely be on board with.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    As much of a disaster as 2018 has been for the Minnesota Twins, it's hard to look back and call it anything but expected. The reality is that injuries, suspensions, and ineffectiveness destroyed any possibility of a return trip to the postseason. Going forward however, the future is bright (I wrote about that here). The same foundation that was going to be relied upon this season remains key for the years ahead. That begs the question of who is there, and who are we waiting on?
     
    While Paul Molitor and the combination of both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned some blame for their roster decisions this season, none of those three would be positioned to overcome the biggest elephant in the room. Experiencing lost seasons for both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton was going to be a hill too steep to climb for this squad. It also represents that reality that each of those players remain integral to the future exploits of the organization as well. Although both of the top two names have sputtered, others have produced. Let's take a temperature check on where the core for the Twins youth is in relation to being able to provide a solid foundation for the future.
     
    Eddie Rosario: Arrived
     
    Somewhat of a knucklehead, maturity was arguably the greatest thing working against the Twins left fielder early on in his career. Posting just a .735 OPS and a 97 OPS+ (100 being average) through his first two MLB seasons, there was plenty of room for growth. Fast forward to today, and Minnesota has a legitimate All Star on their hands, as well as a top 20 player in MLB in terms of fWAR.
     
    Since May 2017, Rosario owns a .296/.336/.518 slash line. He's still a free swinger going after pitches out of the zone nearly 40% of the time, but the 12.3% swinging strike rate is significantly lower than the roughly 15% average he was at in his first two years. After posting down numbers defensively in 2017, he's back to being a very good asset out there and the mental lapses appear to be few and far between.
     
    Two years ago Rosario looked like a guy Minnesota would be questionable in offering a contract extension. At this point, they should make it a priority.
     
    Byron Buxton: Still Waiting
     
    There's no way to sugar coat it, 2018 has been an abomination for the Twins centerfielder. After winning a Gold Glove as well as the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017, Byron has played in just 28 MLB games this season. He garnered MVP votes a year ago, and hasn't looked even close to the player that emerged down the stretch. Among batters with at least 90 plate appearances, Buxton's .383 OPS is second to last. Injuries and ineffectiveness is thew narrative here.
     
    The flip side of this coin is that Buxton already has over 300 G at the big league level under his belt, and he;s yet to turn 25 years old. He's the best defender in the game when healthy, and that helps to soften the blow of an offensive impact that's yet to catch up. There's far too much talent here to stay down for long, but consistency and availability is a must. Getting him back at the end of the year, and playing games somewhere this offseason could be huge. Buxton has to be a cornerstone for the Twins going forward, and I'm still fine betting on that being the case.
     
    Miguel Sano: Still Waiting
     
    When analyzing Miguel Sano's output over the course of his career, there will never be a down time that doesn't coincide with narratives pointing towards weight. As he has ballooned at the waistline, he's been scrutinized for his play. While being out of shape never helps an athlete, I think the bigger narrative is the one Minnesota employed in sending the slugger to Fort Myers. This is a story of accountability, work ethic, and desire. Sano puts on weight when he chooses not to buy into those areas. He has flashed the ability to be Minnesota's best power hitter since Harmon Killebrew. Right now Miguel knows that, but it's up to him whether or not he wants to work hard enough to achieve that.
     
    In his time back with the Twins since his hiatus on the farm, signs have been encouraging. Not only did he buy into a conditioning program enough to come back a more trim version of himself, but the plate appearances have been better as well. The hot corner doesn't look like a spot he's incapable of holding down, and the power potential there remains immense. Sano left a .203/.270/.405 line in the middle of June, and has compiled a .250/.368/.344 mark in his return. He was swinging through 16.1% of pitches, and has drastically dropped that amount to 11.4%.
     
    We're still experiencing a small sample size here, but the returns remain good. This offseason, Sano is going to need to display continued buy in. This isn't a flash in the pan type of change, and it has the ability to be career altering. If he's able to close the book on who he was, and be this type of an athlete, then the sky remains the limit.
     
    Max Kepler: Turning a Corner
     
    Looked at as somewhat of a breakout candidate for 2018, this season has been filled with ups and downs for Kepler. He came out of the gates extremely hot in April, and then cooled significantly by June. Since July 1 though, the German native owns an .890 OPS and has launched six longballs amidst his 12 extra-base hits. On the year he's still hitting lefties better than righties, and his launch angle continues to be an area of promise.
     
    Despite being outspoken regarding a desire to put the ball on the ground, it seems Kepler has bought into the reality that success is through the air. He very well could reach the 20 homer plateau for the first time in his career, and he's made significant strides in the plate discipline department. A deeper dive into batted ball numbers suggests that Kepler is getting fairly unlucky, and that should only help to fuel a late season burst.
     
    Jose Berrios: Arrived, but Not Fully
     
    Owning a 3.0 fWAR on the season, Berrios is currently ranked as the 15th best starter in baseball. The 3.51 ERA and 3.58 FIP are in line, and there's not a number he's put up that isn't a career best. What's truly impressive about that however, is we still aren't seeing the best of him. At just 24 years old, Berrios was invited to his first All Star game. His success has include four clunkers with 5 ER or more, and he's got another three starts in which he's allowed 4 ER. Expecting perfection each time out isn't realistic, but 36% of his starts lending themselves to significant improvement is a very fun thing to project forward.
     
    Having kept home runs largely in check, Berrios has stifled one of his largest downfalls. Slight in stature, he's been able to get enough movement on his pitches to combat the throwing plane in which the ball travels from his hand. We've seen a lot of good starts from Berrios this season, and we've also been privy to opportunities for growth. Although he'll likely set career bests across the board this year, we're just scratching the surface. He's got the ability to round into a bonafide ace, and it's a development that Minnesota has craved for years.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have seen some significant turnover in the past few years. From a new front office, to a handful of new faces in the dugout and on the field, the organization has assumed a significantly different shape. Over the course of all the changes, there's been lots of good momentum with regards to the direction of the franchise. In fact, it could be suggested that the front office has been near flawless in their personnel decisions. Near flawless comes with a caveat however, and that's the final phase.
     
    Heading into the offseason prior to the 2018 Major League Baseball season, Minnesota had plenty of opportunity. Coming off of a postseason berth, the arrow for the ballclub appeared to be pointing straight up. Given how much young talent filled the 25 man roster, spending to supplement that group finally made sense for the front office. With the opportunity in front of them, Derek Falvey and thad Levine performed admirably.
     
    Although Minnesota didn't and Yu Darvish, they were heavily involved on arguably the premiere player available. Pivoting to other assets, Falvey and Levine bolstered the bullpen and rotation, while also tacking on some help for an already imposing lineup. When the dust settle on the open market, there was no other conclusion to draw aside from the reality that the Twins hit a home run. In the offseason, Minnesota dominated.
     
    Fast forward to where we are today, and the Twins can look back on a season that lay in ruins. From top contributors falling flat, injuries coming at inopportune times, and key free agents giving the club little, the front office was pushed into sell mode. Making five separate deals, Falvey and Levine flipped four players who are set to be free agents at season's end. Two of those players were signed on one-year deals, making them either assets to a competitive team here, or beneficial trade chips to an organization in position to go for it. Knowing full well that those five players would head out of town leaving Minnesota nothing to show for them, the front office generated 12 new assets in exchange.
     
    Much like the offseason, the trade deadline was another effort that highlighted the ability of Minnesota's front office. This duo maximized opportunity, and continued to be a forward thinking collective that best positions the on-field product for future success.
     
    That leaves just one key area to examine, and it's part of where it all went wrong. What took place during the season itself?
     
    From an outsider's perspective it's hard to fully attribute what level of control each party has in roster decisions. While Derek Falvey and Thad Levine likely have ultimate rule, they've coined collaboration as their calling card since joining the club. With Paul Molitor in tow, there's little argument to be made that his voice doesn't carry some weight as well. It's in the way moves have been handled as a whole that leaves me scratching my head.
     
    It's hard to quantify what impact each decision has had on a wins and losses level, but there's no doubt in my mind that the bottom line has been impacted. Ryan LaMarre was given significantly more run than he should have been, Alan Busenitz hasn't been handled properly, Mitch Garver has experienced terrible playing time issues, and Matt Belisle remains among the worst signings across all of baseball this season. Although the more egregious examples, there's been plenty of other questionable hiccups along the way.
     
    You'd be hard pressed to argue that Paul Molitor's job wasn't entirely spared by winning Manager of the Year a season ago. He was never the choice of this front office, and has often looked inept when it comes to in game strategy. There's no evidence to suggest front office decisions have been made forcing Molitor to play with half of a deck, but the skipper seems insistent upon doing that to himself at times. As a collective, the front office and manager have done less with more on the field during 2018 and that's an issue needing to be addressed.
     
    Going into the offseason, it's a possibility that Molitor could find himself relieved of his duties. Whether or not that takes place, and it probably doesn't need to, the focus for 2019 needs to be upon executing the final phase of comeptition. While stacking the roster in your favor through free agency and development is ideal, promotion, selection, and delegation of playing time dictates how effective those efforts are. Getting the most out of the assets available to you is an area Minnesota must take a step forward in for the year ahead.
     
    There's plenty of blame to go around for the final phase, but it's also one that collaboration has a very real ability to address.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    The year was 2012, and a 25 year old Brian Dozier had finally burst onto the scene. No, this wasn't the big leagues, but it was close enough. Spring Training had commenced down in Fort Myers, and the scrappy Southern Mississippi kid had taken the narratives by storm. He was getting hits on a daily basis, and fans were looking for a long term answer at short. The 8th round senior sign from 2009 had put his name in the hat and wasn't going away quietly.
     
    Although he didn't go north with the club that year, it didn't take long for them to come calling either. On May 7, 2012 Brian Dozier would make his Major League debut. He tallied his first hit in that game, and his first home run came five games later. Largely however, 2012 was a season to forget. It became quickly apparent that Dozier wasn't suited to play shortstop at the big league level and the reset button was pushed.
     
    Fast forward to 2013 and a positional move to second base. Marking his first full season with the Twins, Dozier would play in 147 games. It has since become customary over the course of his seven year career, but Minnesotans were put on notice that season; this man would simply not be held out of the game.
     
    In 2014 Brian began to establish himself as a power threat. His 23 longballs followed up a solid 18 in the year prior. While not being the hulking corner infield type, this man helped to wear out the left field bleachers at Target Field. Despite being a snub for the game itself, Brian was able to participate in the hometown 2014 Home Run Derby. Although his efforts fell short, it was a great moment for the entirety of Twins Territory.
     
    Not to be denied in 2015, Brian captured his first All Star game nod. A season that saw him come up just shy of 30 homers (28 in total), he received MVP votes for the first time in his career. By this point, it was apparent that the Minnesota Twins had one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Then, 2016 happened...
    Harmon Killebrew is still, and will forever be, revered as the best Twins home run hitter of all time. In 2016, Dozier put himself among that rare company. With 42 homers to his credit, he again received MVP votes and further cementer his ability in comparison with the Jose Altuve's and Robinson Cano's of his position. At just 5'11" this was a relatively short man that had an ability at the plate to wear out Minnie and Paulie's hands.
     
    Having now become known as a player that gets hot down the stretch, Dozier simply followed status quo in 2017. Although he didn't repeat and eclipse the 40 mark, his 34 homers were the second highest total of his career. Thanks to his offensive accolades, he vaulted himself into Gold Glove consideration and ended up taking home the award. At this point, the self-made slugger had turned a late blooming career into one for the storybooks.
     
    Although Brian would've liked it to go differently this season, Minnesota simply couldn't keep up with all of the roadblocks in their way. Another trip to the postseason wasn't going to happen in Twins Territory, but that doesn't mean it won't for Brian. Now on his way to Los Angeles to join the Dodgers, a team he had been tied to in the past, Dozier gets to join a front-runner. He'll make a great up the middle partner for Manny Machado, and many Twins fans will only have to change their shade of blue come October.
     
    As the sun sets on this chapter, Dozier leaves the Twins with 167 home runs, 202 doubles, and 491 RBI to his credit. He's a testament to the player that never stops working, and more importantly, the man that always wants more. Both he and his wife Renee have made an impact far greater than what's seen on the diamond, and they'll be sorely missed around Target Field. It's the nature of the business that players come and go, but this is one that left his mark here forever. Thank you Brian, and go Dodgers.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 Major League Baseball season with postseason aspirations. Coming off of a Wild Card berth a year ago, it was fair to expect this club to challenge the Indians for the American League Central Division title. For a multitude of reasons, things didn't pan out as expected, and that left the club as sellers when it came to the trade deadline. As has often been the case, the front office positioned and executed the endeavor near flawlessly.
     
    Having lots of money to spend this offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine bolstered the organization with talent. At the time, all of the acquisitions made a ton of sense, and looked nothing short of great on paper. We know that across the board plenty of players fell flat for Minnesota, and that allowed more shrewd decision making to come into play. Thanks to the short term commitment, and multiple one-year deals handed out, the Twins found themselves with assets able to be moved when their direction took a turn.
     
    It's always tough to see a player like Eduardo Escobar leave the organization he broke out in, but the reality is that the Twins maximized his value. Zach Duke and Lance Lynn were set to depart at season's end for nothing, and getting a return helps to stretch their effectiveness for the club into the future. Now a handful of trades in, there's reason to like every one of them.
     
    Eduardo Escobar to Arizona for SP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel, and OF Ernie De La Trinidad
     
    It's Duran that highlights this package for the Twins. All three prospects are current in Single-A, and given the depth in the Diamondbacks system (or lack thereof), these are three relative lottery tickets. That said, Maciel was highly touted as an International signee and stockpiling some talent that Minnesota may have missed out on when each was available as an amateur is hardly a bad get. Escobar was set to be a free agent at season's end, and now he gets to go be a part of a pennant race. Minnesota could bring him back this offseason (and if they can do so at the right dollar figure, it'd be very appealing), but getting some tangible return for him while they could is a very good move.
     
    Ryan Pressly to Houston for SP Jorge Alcala and OF Gilberto Celestino
     
    Flipping Pressly stings a bit, as I've been vocal about how good of a pitcher he is for quite some time. In 2018, he truly emerged as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. With another year of team control, it's unfortunate he won't be around to help what should be a competitive Twins team in 2019. That said, the reality is that he's a reliever. With pen arms being fickle, it made sense to flip him for a healthy return at a time when Minnesota had plenty of suitors. Getting a prospect with triple digit velocity in return is a nice piece, and it opens the door for Minnesota to explore some internal options in hops of backfilling Ryan's role.
     
    Zach Duke to Seattle for SP Chase De Jong and IF Ryan Costello
     
    Here is the first move in which the Twins front office continues to make a one-year deal work for them. Duke was signed for just $2.15 million this offseason and was handed a one-year deal. Having just two months left on his contract and not in a position to provide Minnesota value, the two prospects continue to do so. Although neither piece is a blue chip talent, there's little reason to scoff at the ability to develop and potentially drive major league talent out of players that will be around long after Duke would have left the organization. The Mariners get a lefty killer in return, and Duke's time with the Twins was an effective one.
     
    Lance Lynn to New York for 1B Tyler Austin and SP Luis Rijo
     
    If you'd ask who among the Twins free agent acquisitions underperformed the most this season, it'd have to be a tossup between Lynn and Logan Morrison. Being able to send the former Cardinals hurler out for a respectable return only highlights the importance of a track record. After missing virtually all of spring training, Lynn has been better since being awful his first month or so. He was striking out batters (and walking them) at career high rates, but there's too much leash there to believe he's cooked. In going to the Yankees, Lynn represents another one-year deal that plays future dividends for the Twins. Austin is out of options, so it would make sense that Minnesota give him ample opportunity to stick down the stretch. Rijo is a lottery ticket that you'd never be wise to turn down.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins moved Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly over the weekend. One transaction involved a free agent to be, and the other focused around a return that likely was too good to pass up. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, clearing some extra space should be the goal for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.
     
    As things stand currently Minnesota has a handful of guys capable of being flipped to another team. The names include Brian Dozier, Zach Duke, Fernado Rodney, and Lance Lynn. If they really wanted to, and were presented with a solid return, Kyle Gibson could also enter this list. It's hard to see Minnesota being able to move Ervin Santana after just one or two healthy starts, but he could be an August trade candidate through the waiver process.
     
    Looking at the list of candidates having a potential to be moved, there's something that should jump out as an opportunity. All of them are impending free agents, and there's a relatively small likelihood that any of them return to the Twins in 2019. With that in mind, it's time to start planning for the year ahead. Giving those innings to players that will be around is a must, and it's something that Paul Molitor only has two months left to capitalize on.
     
    While it's uncertain as to whether or not Nick Gordon can start at the big league level a year from now, or if Stephen Gonsalves can continue to limit free passes, it's become time to find out some of those answers. Guys like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, and Jake Reed deserve some real run in the Twins pen, while Zack Littell and Adalberto Mejia could benefit from a couple of starts being strung together in succession.
     
    When the Twins constructed the 2018 roster each of the pieces now available on the block made sense to bring in. This club was expected to be competitive, and without a lack of production across the board (combined with untimely injuries and bad luck), that was a reasonable expectation. Now with the narrative of the season having changed, the goal should be getting a jumpstart on the 2019 season.
     
    It's hard to decipher whether or not Minnesota will be able to move all of their expiring pieces. Duke and Rodney have performed well this season, and should have appeal to some contenders. Dozier hasn't looked like himself, but a late season spark is all he'd need to supply in order to provide value to a postseason run. Lynn has been the worst of the bunch, but he's trended better of late and has a strong track record of success in his corner. What may be most interesting is what Minnesota decides to do if they can't move some of the pieces.
     
    Looking at the roster construction as it currently stands, there's plenty of reason to question where the front office is prioritizing playing time. A guy like Matt Belisle has been both bad and ineffective for multiple organizations this season. Unfortunately, he's been given ample opportunity with Minnesota and that's to the detriment of the multiple more viable pen arms for the year ahead. A decision like that would suggest there isn't much care when it comes to preparing for what's next. Lynn could be DFA'd and the leftovers could see themselves passed through the waiver process, but we don't really have much evidence to suggest that's what lies ahead.
     
    By my estimation, the most unfortunate way for the final two months of the season to play out would be to see all of these players stick around and no one get any real opportunity from the farm. You can't just cut bait on big league guys that are producing, but clearing the way for those you'll need to rely upon next season has to be of the utmost importance. We should have more clarity in the coming days, but the hope should be that the front office is on board with the train of thought as well.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 season with postseason expectations. After appearing in the Wild Card game a season ago, that result was viewed as a worst case scenario this time around. Fast forward to where we are now, and nothing has gone according to plan. For the Twins to exceed expectations, optimal performance from home grown stars was going to be a must. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have drawn the headlines, but where does Max Kepler fall into all of this?
     
    During the 2017 campaign, Kepler posted a career best .737 OPS. It was a very slight improvement over his 2016 season, and the thought was that he could be a prime candidate for a breakout in the year ahead. Through 96 games this season, he owns just a .731 OPS and hasn't taken the step forward that was imagined for him. That's the bad news. The good news is this story is still being written.
     
    On the surface, it seems that Kepler is simply repeating the same level of production he's had over the course of his big league career. Diving a bit deeper however, we see some narratives that suggest much more could be coming.
     
    Before diving into any underlying stats, Kepler's slash line this year is interesting in its own right. His .226 batting average is a career worst, but the .314 OBP is a career best. With 44 walks already, he's going to easily set a career high in that category. The German born outfielder also already has 13 longballs to his credit, and reaching 20 for the first time in his career seems like a foregone conclusion. Striking out less, walking more, and leaving the yard at a higher rate are all avenues for success.
     
    Unquestionably, the biggest development for Kepler has been his regained ability to hit left-handed pitching. After posting a .453 OPS against southpaws last season, he now owns an .831 OPS against those same pitchers in the current campaign. Oddly he's fallen off a bit against righties, owning just a .689 OPS, but eight of his 13 homers have come against opposite armed pitchers. Being able to even out the splits, or more desirably mash righties again, would significantly raise Kepler's water level across the board.
     
    Looking at the quality of balls Max is putting in play we can see signs of a potential breakthrough ready to happen. Although his average sits at .226 on the year, Kepler is generating an unreasonably low .239 BABIP. That mark is significantly below the .276 tally from 2017, and given the career high 38.6 hard hit rate, there's plenty of room for growth.
     
    In previous interviews Kepler has turned his nose at the launch angle revolution. He's actually been goal in saying that it was his goal to put the ball on the ground. By now we know that isn't a viable path to success in the big leagues, and Kepler's numbers have begun to turn away from that. In 2018 he owns a career low 37.9% ground ball rate, and a 45.5% fly ball rate. If there's missed opportunity here, it comes in the form of a HR/FB ratio sitting at 10.3%. Right now Kepler may be getting too far under the ball, and staying within career norms at a 16.6% line drive rate, he's got a bit of room to flatten out the balls he's elevating.
     
    Earlier I touched on the heightened level of plate discipline that Kepler has shown this season, and that's obviously a direct results of his efforts as well. In 2018 he's dropped his swinging strike rate all the way down to 7.4%. That new number is nearly a 2% decrease from a season ago, and a full percent lower than his career average. On top of missing the ball less, he's also chasing pitches out of the zone at a career low 24.9%. In short, it adds up to the perfect storm.
     
    Right now the sum of Kepler's parts has plenty of room for growth. What's a very encouraging sign is that he's hardly defined as the player with a .226 batting average. Continuing to sting the ball while working to optimize his launch angle should only help to drive the BABIP north. As he's able to settle in more against righties, the damage only has an opportunity to become universal. There's been a lot asked of Kepler in a season where Byron Buxton has been nonexistent, but the growth opportunity for a player that's just 25 can do wonders down the road.
     
    No matter what it currently seems like, the best is yet to come for Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are fully expected to be sellers at this point, and with just under a week until the July 31 trade deadline there's moves to be made. As a few teams have already started to swap assets, the hope would be that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken notice. Specifically, there seems to be real value when dealing controllable pieces and the Twins have two of the best out there.
     
    Today, the Tampa Bay Rays flipped Nathan Eovaldi to the Boston Red Sox for LHP Jalen Beeks. Beeks comes in as the Red Sox 6th best prospect per Baseball America, and Tampa netting him after just 10 starts from Eovaldi post Tommy John surgery seems like some sort of sorcery. At 28, Eovaldi has always been a guy to push the radar gun. He's sitting at 97.4 mph on his fastball this year, and appears to have regained his pre-surgery form just fine. The 4.26 ERA is backed by a 4.28 FIP while his 8.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 are plenty solid. If this is the return Eovaldi commands though, what could Minnesota get for Kyle Gibson?
     
    Still arbitration eligible for another season, Gibson doesn't hit the open market until 2020. Eovaldi checks in as a rental, and will only be with Boston for the remainder of 2018. After coming on strong in the second half of 2017, Gibson has continued to prove that he's truly turned a corner. With a 3.57 ERA and a 3.85 FIP in 2018 the former first round pick has been nothing short of a solid arm. He's also amped up his strikeout rate, posting a career best 8.9 K/9 mark while staying on pace with career norms in the walks department.
     
    It's fair to wonder whether or not the Twins should hang onto Gibson given the likelihood that they turn things around in 2019. Despite having decent pitching depth, Minnesota would be just fine penciling the former Missouri Tiger into the top half of the rotation next season. Ideally this club is making a postseason push in 2019, and getting another strong performance out of Gibson could be integral to that taking place.
     
    The Mets would have the two best arms on the market if either deGrom or Syndergaard were made available. I can't see either of them being moved however, and that means other organizations have an opportunity. If Falvey and Levine are fielding calls on Gibson, a significant haul doesn't appear to be out of the question.
     
    In the bullpen, Minnesota finds another premiere asset. Ryan Pressly has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this season. He owns a 3.45 ERA with a 2.99 FIP. Jumping up his strikeout total each season, he's at a career best 13.0 K/9 in 2018. That mark puts him 9th among MLB relievers, and above guys like Brad Hand, Felipe Vasquez, and Sean Doolittle.
     
    Much like Gibson, there could be little incentive for Minnesota to deal Pressly. The former Rule 5 pick has another year of arbitration eligibility and also hits the market in 2020. A focus this offseason was to revamp the bullpen, and removing Ryan from it would hurt big time. That said, Jon Morosi recently reported that the Marlins told Boston neither Jay Groome or Michael Chavis along would be enough to acquire their reliever Drew Steckenrider. While Steckenrider has more team control than that of Pressly, they're very comparable pitchers.
     
    At the end of the day I'd be relatively surprised if either Pressly or Gibson was moved. Given the expectation to compete next season, having both of those players on the roster would be beneficial. Moving assets like Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar makes much more sense, and should be the focal point of the next few days. Then again if a team comes calling on Gibson or Pressly, ask for the farm and remain grounded in that.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins employed the best catcher in baseball up until 2013, and over his tenure behind the plate, Joe Mauer proved to be one of the five or ten best to ever play the position. Since then however, the role has become somewhat of a black hole for the organization. With Jason Castro shelved in 2018 more question marks have surfaced. The biggest unknown going forward is what do Derek Falvey and Thad Levine do now?
     
    Castro will return in 2019 on the final year of a three-year, $24.5 million deal. He'll be coming off a knee surgery that allowed him to play in just 19 games this season. At 32 years old he'll have spent 699 games behind the dish, and the likelihood that his best days are behind him remains real.
     
    Initially billed as a framing wizard behind the dish, Castro ranked just 15th in baseball per Baseball Prospectus' Framing Runs metric for 2017. While not awful, that's hardly what the Twins had hoped given the hype around that being his best asset. Castro's .720 OPS last season was 29th among major league catchers with at least 130 plate appearances. To summarize, there was plenty to be desired on both sides of the game even before the injury.
     
    Fast forward to 2018, and the Twins catchers have combined to post a .607 OPS. That number comes in 6th worst in all of baseball. Bobby Wilson, who has been the main starter behind the plate in Castro's absence, owns the 6th worst OPS among 55 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances (.507). Mitch Garver has been a significantly better bat, and Willians Astudillo profiles as such also, but neither have been trusted with the gear on.
    The lack of belief behind the plate really points to the crux of the Twins issues.
     
    Regardless of what form Castro is in when he returns, Minnesota has virtually no one else they're willing to turn to. Astudillo has posted strong framing numbers at Triple-A, and held his own throwing out 35% of would be base stealers. In seven games with the Twins (and nearly a month on the roster), he never once drew time behind the plate. Garver has been on the 25 man for the balance of the season, yet has been called upon to start at catcher just 45 times.
     
    There's plenty of reason to believe that the Twins should compete immediately in 2019. Projecting another year of virtually everything going wrong seems like a poor bet, and the division should remain plenty open with the only other talented team being the Cleveland Indians. Before they get there however, the Minnesota front office needs to figure out a better blueprint at catcher.
     
    Down the stretch, Garver should be prioritized over Wilson. Whether or not he's deemed an acceptable catcher shouldn't matter in a lost season. Figuring out to what degree he can be counted upon is a must. Astudillo seems like a career minor leaguer, and probably isn't the answer either. Should the results point towards a different direction than Garver, the Twins will need to get creative over the winter.
     
    Castro could be presumed the starter out of the gate again, but a free agent could be brought in to take away those duties. Potential names on the open market include Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, and Devin Mesoraco. Should the Twins decide not to supplant Castro, another Chris Gimenez type might make sense in place of Garver.
     
    Stepping further away from the situation, the reality is there's a ton of moving pieces and very few certainties for Minnesota. Catcher isn't a position rich in value across the big leagues right now, and while the Twins have two intriguing prospects in Ben Rortvedt and Ryan Jeffers, neither are close enough to make a difference any time soon. The role can't continue to be a revolving door for a team with postseason aspirations however, and driving towards a real answer needs to be a goal sooner rather than later.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 Major League Baseball season expecting to compete for a second straight postseason berth. Unfortunately, the offense has been nonexistent for the bulk of the schedule, and that's led to a situation where the club looks like it will sell off assets prior to the trade deadline. The immediate success of the organization lies on the backs of its former top prospects; chief among them are Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton.
     
    Sano and Buxton have had nothing short of disastrous seasons. They both find themselves down in the minors right now, and the latter is on the shelf with a hand injury. Whether or not Minnesota gets anything of substance out of either this season is largely unimportant at this point. What does matter however, is that both players are trending in a direction to be difference makers out of the gate in 2019.
     
    Now having spent a substantial amount of time down on the farm, it's worth checking on each to see where they're at.
     
    Miguel Sano
     
    After looking like an uncommitted shell of the player he both could and should be for the Twins, Sano was sent to High-A Fort Myers. Rather than scripting it like a punishment, Minnesota's front office communicated that this was a reinvestment in the player. Everyone in the organization wants more from Sano, they all believe it's possible, and the goal is to get the player on that same page as well.
     
    Although High-A is a drastic drop in surroundings, the idea is that Fort Myers essentially serves as the Twins hub. There's a training center and support staff there that is unrivaled across the rest of the minor league system. While performance is part of the equation, conditioning and support are arguably the greater piece of the pie. Expecting this to be best handled in South Florida, it made the most sense as a destination.
     
    Now through 19 games with the Miracle, Sano owns a .328/.442/.453 slash line. He's contributed four extra-base hits (two homers), and owns a 21/13 K/BB ratio. Looking at the numbers, there's some things to like and others to be skeptical about.
     
    Firstly, it's disappointing not seeing a higher power output from a guy who should be feasting on High-A pitching. Just two home runs in 77 plate appearances is a rather paltry display. It's fair to reserve judgement however, as the goal may be working on specific outputs in game situations as opposed to simply letting it fly. On the flip side, the strikeout to walk ratio is something that has to please Minnesota brass. Again, Sano should be much better than this level, but drawing walks at a higher rate is something he must do in the big leagues. As a power hitter, strikeouts will never be a significant problem so long as the longballs and free passes even them out.
     
    From my vantage point, I'm unable to evaluate Sano's off the field progress. Reports have all suggested he's been very committed to his conditioning program and is invested in the plan set forth for him. I've been vocal about Miguel's weight not ever being the real issue, and instead believing that it all revolves around a work ethic that strives for more. If the Twins are happy with the desire and drive they see from their promising slugger, that's as valuable as anything Miguel can bring back to the big leagues with him.
     
    It's hard to evaluate whether or not Sano should have any sort of timetable for a return to the Twins. Again, I don't think the numbers are the true barometer that should inform fans of an impending promotion. The talent and ability is all there for Sano; it simply comes down to whether or not he wants to get the most from it.
     
    Byron Buxton
     
    Nearly a polar opposite from the Twins first basemen, Buxton's issue has never been that he isn't committed or willing to work. Taken off the field due to injuries and ineffectiveness, it's all about whether or not Buxton can harness all of his abilities in conjunction with one another.
     
    Minnesota handled Buxton's injury situation rather oddly this year. There was time missed due to migraines, and then a skipped rehab assignment. Then there was a broken toe, and the blessing to play through an injury that hampered any real ability to be effective at the plate. Following a necessary rehab stint, the organization the decided Buxton's bat wasn't where it needed to be, and optioned him to Rochester for good. Fast forward to today, and a hand ailment has the talented outfielder on the shelf yet again.
     
    On the season, Buxton has played in just 47 games across all levels. He owns an MLB worst .383 OPS and has slashed .232/.303/.377 in 18 games with Triple-A Rochester. There's two trains of thought when it comes to the production, and it's either a result of inability at the current time, or there's the question as to whether lack of consistency has hampered any ability to settle in.
     
    Faults of both injuries and the Twins handling of them, Buxton hasn't found any sort of stability in 2018. It's been nothing short of a lost season, and right now it's a waiting game to see if that narrative can be corrected. There's significantly too much talent in the superstar outfielder for this to go on forever. Right now though, there has to be a strive towards getting him back on the field and keeping him there.
     
    After he heals from this wrist sprain, my hope would be that there's a few games at Triple-A used as a rehab assignment. From there, I'd like to see him sent back up to the Twins to compete in the big leagues. No matter how much he's currently scuffling at Triple-A, we've already seen him master that level. What Byron needs is the ability to adapt and compete at the plate in the majors. In a lost season for the club as a whole, the continued development at the dish needs to take place where it matters. Sparking his bat on the farm, only to then have him start over following a promotion, does no good.
     
    The Twins need to allow Buxton to settle into the level he appears destined to compete at for a long time. Developing consistency in a season that's had very little for him is a must. There's significant opportunity left to be had in 2018, and capitalizing on that would be best for Buxton as well as the Twins.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the past week or so, the Minnesota Twins have certainly brought a higher level of intrigue to their 2018 season. Despite getting so little out of their offense for so long, they've at least made the idea of being sellers, one worth questioning. Ultimately I'm not sure 2018 is salvageable, but expecting them to again be competitive in 2019 is a very real proposition. For those wondering about what's even further out, this one is for you.
     
    I have been sitting on this question from "twins dude" on Twitter for over a month now. Wondering what the Twins lineup might look like in five years, I was waiting for a good opportunity to take a look. Immediately following the Futures Game and during this lull of Twins baseball, it seemed as good of a time as any.
     

     
    So, with all of that out of the way, who takes the field where in 2023? This is my stab at that answer:
     
    C- Ryan Jeffers
     
    The 2018 2nd round pick has gotten off to a hot start over his first 20+ professional games. While there were questions about whether he could stick behind the plate, Minnesota believes the answer is yes. The bat will play, and he's got a decent shot to race ahead of Ben Rortvedt in getting to the big leagues.
     
    1B- Miguel Sano
     
    For this to be accurate, a few factors would come into play. First and foremost, Sano would need to truly dedicate himself to his craft. Even in sliding over to first from third, staying in better shape and being committed to giving the Twins more than just a shell of himself is a must. He'll be eligible for free agency in 2022, so staying with Minnesota behind that point would be reflective of a renewed belief in his ability and work ethic.
     
    2B- Nick Gordon
     
    We should see Gordon as soon as 2018, and immediately taking over for Brian Dozier makes a ton of sense. He's probably not quite ready to step in as an above-average big leaguer, but he's still developing. Nick has a completely different skillset than that of Brian, but it's one that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could safely deploy at the top or bottom of the lineup.
     
    SS- Royce Lewis
     
    Superstar, that's really the only word I'm coming up with when trying to describe Lewis. He's an incredible athlete, top tier baseball player, and an even better person. I'd be far from shocked if we don't see him in the big leagues by 2020. He could slide to the outfield, but Minnesota would obviously be better suited if he stays at short. He's not going to be the best fielder, but from an all around standpoint, he could be the next Carlos Correa.
     
    3B- Jorge Polanco
     
    I think Polanco remains in the Twins long term plans. He's been fine as a shortstop, and has really worked at improving himself defensively. That said, it's probably more likely he moves off than position than Lewis. Not the typical slugging corner infielder, Polanco has plenty of pop to be an asset offensively as well.
     
    LF- Eddie Rosario
     
    Having gone from a free winging question mark to one of the best outfielders in the game, Eddie Rosario has absolutely broken out in 2018. This isn't some flash in the pan, as we've seen it substantiated for nearly a full year now. The Twins should be looking to extend him through arbitration and into free agency.
     
    CF- Byron Buxton
     
    At 24, it's still way too early to give up on one of the best defenders baseball has ever seen. Buxton is incredible in center field, and I believe the bat is legit too. We've had to practice a significant amount of patience with him, but in the not-so-distant future I think we see it pay off. He needs to do a better job of staying healthy, but there's a big time breakout waiting to happen here.
     
    RF- Alex Kirilloff
     
    Shooting up prospect lists this season, you'd hardly remember that Kirilloff missed a full year due to Tommy John surgery. Seen as a bat only prospect coming out of high school, the offensive upside has been through the roof. He crushed Low-A, and has started off well at High-A Fort Myers. I'd imagine we could see him in the big leagues by 2020, and that thump from the left side of the plate would be incredibly welcomed. Max Kepler is going to be in the mix here, but he'll need to flash more consistency than we've seen thus far.
    DH- Brent Rooker/Trevor Larnach
     
    Larnach is probably the better outfielder of this duo, but Rooker can slot in at first base in the big leagues. Rotating through some of those defensive positions while being focused on hitting first, both of these bats have an opportunity to do some serious damage at the highest level. Rooker needs to cut down on the strikeouts, and work more walks, but the power is absolutely real. We've yet to see what Larnach can do professionally, but his collegiate approach was a very good one, and there's plenty of thump off his bat as well. These two would be among the better athletes cast as DH's in the majors.
     
    If I were to construct a lineup out of this group, it might look something like this:
     
    Buxton CF
    Lewis SS
    Kirilloff RF
    Sano 1B
    Rosario LF
    Rooker DH
    Polanco 3B
    Jeffers C
    Gordon 2B
     
    Five years is a long time out, and there's so much that can happen prior to any of this actually taking place. It's fun to look at what's ahead, but given the immediate future of this club and the opportunity within the division, it's also best to not miss what is right around the corner.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    A season ago, the Minnesota Twins welcomed Bartolo Colon to the 25 man roster. Big Sexy was 44 years old, and he was determined to pitch at least until he was 45. Paul Molitor got good results from the journeyman a year ago, and the front office went back to the fountain of youth this winter. Fernando Rodney was signed as the club's closer, and at the age of 41 he's been nothing short of a revelation.
     
    Long gone are the days that the Twins could immediately pencil in a holdover in the 9th inning. Glen Perkins was an All Star closer that was a well known commodity. Taking the torch from Joe Nathan, the Twins had gone from one 9th inning stalwart to another. As age and ineffectiveness caught up with Perkins however, the cupboard seemed to be bare. Without a "proven closer" waiting in the wings, Minnesota needed to get creative.
     
    After Perkins began to find himself on the disabled list, the Twins turned to former scrap heap pickup Brandon Kintzler. It took just a year, and the 32 year old found himself in the All Star Game for the first time in his career. Recording 28 saves along with a 2.78 ERA for Minnesota a year ago, Kintzler was nothing short of a revelation.
     
    Having turned to a more established 9th inning presence, Rodney was guaranteed the 9th inning gig from the get go. Following along with a trend, April was a tough month for the 41 year old. Rodney posted a 5.87 ERA and had as many blown saves (3) as he did successful ones (3). At the end of that first month, I found myself as the voice of reason preaching caution. This narrative has played out before, and it's one that bears significant fruit going forward.
     
    Since May 1, Rodney owns a 2.19 ERA for the Twins and has allowed opposing batters to compile just a .514 OPS against him. He's 17/19 in save opportunities, and has been the lockdown presence any team would hope for in the late innings. What's maybe most impressive, is that Rodney is putting up numbers that rival some of his best season, despite his advanced age. The 3.3 BB/9 is the second lowest tally of his career, and over a full free pass better than his career average. He's still setting down batters at a 10.0 K/9 rate, and he's kept hitters in check.
     
    Across the board, there's really nothing exceptional about the totals that the Twins closer is putting up. What's more important however, is that there's no areas for concern either. Rodney is 41 years old, and still competing at a level that many of his contemporaries would strive for. His velocity still averages out above 95 mph, and he remains virtually the same pitcher he's always been. For the gamble that Minnesota placed in acquiring his services, this is definitely a success story for all parties involved.
     
    Time will tell, but the expectation should be that Rodney is moved before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Having worked almost entirely in the closer role, it would stand to reason that a team needing a 9th inning arm would make the most sense. No matter where he goes however, the 41 year old will probably end up being superior to many of the younger arms surrounding him. Whether it be his workout regimen or dedication to the game, continuing to be this good for this long is nothing short of exceptional.
     
    This narrative has played out in Twins Territory before. From Jim Thome, to Colon, and now Rodney, seeing guys well past their prime competing at such a high level is something of a marvel. There's no reason for Rodney to be considering calling it quits any time soon, and at this stage in his career, that's something to hang his hat on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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