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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    Fairly, the Minnesota Twins bullpen has been a lightning rod of discussion in 2019. From talks about what more could be done, to the breakdowns that have cost the club a couple of games, this group will remain under the microscope. With the bright lights on them, internally developed arms have been the anchors at the back of the group. Arguably the most impressive reliever has been Trevor Hildenberger, and that’s a development Twins fans can get behind.
     
    Hildenberger was a 26-year-old pitching at Triple-A Rochester in 2017. He owned a 1.57 ERA across 171.2 minor league innings pitched, and as a 22nd round pick out of Cal Berkeley, was never lauded as a top prospect. Despite an impressive 10.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in his time on the farm, he needed to scratch and claw his way up the ladder to the big leagues. Owning a low-90’s fastball, this was a sidearmer that does it through deception more than velocity. Plenty of things can go wrong for a guy like that, and after initial success, they did.
     
    As a rookie in 2017, Hildenberger quickly became one of Paul Molitor’s favorite options out of the bullpen. Across 42 innings he posted a 3.21 ERA backed by a 3.02 FIP and 9.4 K/9 with a 1.3 BB/9. Essentially, he continued to be everything he was on the farm and then some. Going into 2018, Molitor continued to rely on his new toy, but this time likely rode him right into the ground. Posting a 2.06 ERA through his first 36 games, Trevor had been used in almost half of the Twins contests for a total of 39.1 IP. From June 30 forward, Molitor turned to Hildenberger another 37 times for a total of 33.2 IP that saw him turn in a 9.36 ERA.
     
    Fast forward to 2019 and we’ve got a fresh Trevor Hildenberger with a few more pen options to turn to. On the season, Trevor has thrown 7.2 IP allowing no earned runs, striking out 11.7 per nine, and giving up free passes at just a 2.3 BB/9 clip. To put it mildly, Hildenberger has been nothing short of exceptional. We have been down this road before however, and Minnesota will need to monitor workload to avoid a second straight season of burnout.
     
    The Twins have played 19 games thus far, and Hildenberger has pitched in 11 of them. The 19 inherited runners Trevor has been handed is the most in baseball, and his 14 inherited runners stranded is five more than Rangers reliever Shawn Kelley, who comes in second. Operating as the Twins fire man, Hildenberger has come in during the highest of leverage, and slammed the door at a relatively high clip.
     
    It’s not so much that it’s a surprise Minnesota is getting solid production out of Hildenberger. He’s proven capable of performing in big moments for significant stretches over the course of his major league career. What we’ll need to keep tabs on, and be mindful of, is how much this could factor into potential issues down the stretch. Right now, Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Blake Parker have been assets for Baldelli. Ryne Harper has been a nice surprise, and there’s some potential reinforcements on the way. Generating more production that that of just four or five arms is a must, however. Another option must emerge so that it’s not always on Hildenberger to carry the load.
     
    Good news is that Minnesota looks to have their developed relief star back to himself in 2019. The flip side is that they’ll need to avoid going down a similar path to what took place a year ago. For now, though, take solace in the fact that when a sidearming righty runs in with runners on, they’re likely to wind up failing to cross home plate.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the 2019 Major League Baseball season there were few areas on the Minnesota Twins 25-man roster that looked more questionable than the bullpen. After bringing in Blake Parker and no one else, the front office turned away from opportunities to significantly bolster their relief corps. We’re just eight games in at this point, but so far, it appears the decision to look internally may be a warranted one.
     
    Despite Minnesota having a ridiculous amount of off days to kick off new year, Rocco Baldelli has turned to relievers for a grand total of 30.0 IP thus far. Across those innings, the new skipper’s faith has been rewarded to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, good for sixth best in baseball. From there, the secondary numbers tell a more cautionary tale, but it’s in avoiding real damage that the group has succeeded.
     
    Coming into the game at key points following a starter’s initial work, avoiding blow ups or added opportunity is the goal of a reliever. Although the ERA of the group is a shiny tally, the strikeouts and walks are a bit concerning. Minnesota relievers have fanned just 7.8 batters per nine innings (22nd) and have allowed 5.1 walks per nine (7th worst). Dancing around the danger is a result of the ball staying in the yard. Owning the second-best HR/9 rate (0.30) in the big leagues, along with a major league best 3.0 HR/FB rate, has helped the pen to keep runners stranded.
     
    Usually working with runners on base is a less than idea reality, but if you’re going to work around it, generating soft contact is a must. The 19.5% hard hit rate is a major league low by nearly 7%, and it’s allowed this group plenty of opportunity for outs when the ball is put in play. Over the past two seasons, the Twins have shifted more than almost any other team in baseball. By playing to the percentages, while generating suboptimal contact, you can expect a good deal of success.
     
    Obviously as the season goes on and the sample size grows, a 5.0 BB/9 rate won’t be sustainable. Minnesota needs guys coming on that can put the ball by hitters and send them back to the dugout. Given the relative uncertainty of the group and specific pitchers, handing out free passes is also not a good plan. Those things do need to change, but there’s a pretty good skeleton to work from at this point.
     
    Baldelli, and Wes Johnson, will be tasked with empowering their staff all season long. Parker is far from a proven closer, May is still getting settled, Mejia is new to relieving, and Harper is still more story than track record. Trust will be built up well into the summer, but it’s also been displayed early. Between letting Adalberto Mejia come back after a long outing to get pivotal outs against the Phillies or asking curveball master Ryne Harper to get out of a high leverage jam ,the Twins staff is setting forth a plan with eyes on October.
     
    Given the relative volatility of relievers, and even more so when they are green and unexperienced, keeping regression at bay is a must. Taylor Rogers looks like a bonafide star, and Trevor Hildenberger has become a proven commodity. The rest of the group following their lead and giving Rocco a greater sense of comfort should build rapport for necessary work months from now.
     
    The Twins relievers have been great in the results department to date, even if there’s warts under the surface. The opportunities will remain present, and the belief in these guys from the front office will be a key focus the rest of the way.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Once a standalone competitor of the Topps Company, Bowman was acquired following the 1955 Major League Baseball season. Fast forward to 1989 and Bowman has become a staple in the card collecting space. Focused on delivering minor leaguers or up and coming prospects, the yearly offerings are gobbled up like candy by those interested in the hobby. Bowman Baseball 2019 hits shelves on April 17, and this new offering is not expected to be any different.
     
    For each mainstream Bowman offering, the collecting focus is placed on a few key areas. First and foremost, the cards producing the highest level of desire are those designated as a player’s “1st Bowman” card. Chrome holds more value than paper base cards, and colored parallels generate an even higher level of scarcity. Obviously, the autographed cards carry the highest premium, and the collector’s focus is to view the product through the lens of a stock market. With many unproven players, holding until a certain level of production creates the most value is where Bowman draws most of its allure.
     
    The Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball, but many of their top prospects are already beyond “1st Bowman” cards. At any rate, there’s plenty to be excited about here for Minnesota fans.
     
    Base Set
     
    Split into base sets featuring both prospects and big leaguers, Minnesota is well represented in Bowman Baseball 2019. On the big-league side, there’s rookie cards of Willians Astudillo and Jake Cave. The veteran duo includes Jose Berrios and Eddie Rosario. Looking at prospects, Minnesota touts Brusdar Graterol, Brent Rooker, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Ryan Costello’s 1st Bowman card. Each of the prospects also has a chrome version to chase.
     
    Inserts
     
    Bowman isn’t a checklist focused on inserts, but there’s a handful of subsets to be made from the master. The Top 100 and Talent Pipeline inserts are mainstays, and Sterling Continuity returns this year. You can find Kirilloff, Lewis, Graterol, Rooker, and Nick Gordon represented among these offerings. Each of the insert cards should be of the chrome variety.
     
    Hits
     
    Bowman is traditionally a hit driven product, with the chrome prospect autographs carrying the biggest premium. There’s no relics in this product, and everything will be signed on card. You can expect a couple of players to be offered through redemptions.
     
    The Twins have two cards in the chrome prospect autograph checklist. Costello debuts his 1st Bowman autograph, and Andrew Bechtold joins this group with his 1st as well. Royce Lewis will have signed versions of his Top 100 card, and Brusdar will offer up his signature on the Bowman Sterling set. With just four total autographed cards in the entire product, group breaks should have you picking up the Twins on the cheap.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
     
    Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
     
    Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
     
    Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
     
    Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
     
    Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
     
    We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Starting 2019 with two divisional series gives the Minnesota Twins some immediate opportunity. Rocco Baldelli’s club took the opening series against the AL Central favorite Cleveland Indians, and they’ll now have a chance to grab more important victories against the Kansas City Royals. Looking back at 2018 and how it played out, it’s clear that the key to this club taking the next step lies in grabbing the victories they’re supposed to.
     
    Last season the AL Central was historically bad. Minnesota played into that futility, but they certainly didn’t find themselves in the doldrums inhabited by the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals. Knowing how bad those three clubs were, it was important for the hometown club to get fat while competing against them. They accomplished that feat going 12-7 against both Chicago and Detroit, but a 9-10 record against Kansas City certainly wasn’t going to get it done.
     
    Looking over the results put up against the competition, there’s lots of area for extra wins to be squeaked out. The Royals are the most notable club in which Minnesota must wallop, but the reality is that they need to play much better against everyone outside of the division as well. Baldelli is going to want to improve upon an 8-12 interleague record and being on the wrong end against too many American League foes was a suboptimal reality.
     
    Beyond the teams they lost too, it was the losses themselves that were unfortunate as well. In one run games, the Twins went 15-21 a season ago. There’s a decent amount of luck in close games, but there’s also bullpen factors that generally didn’t play in favor of the Twins. Blowout games had last year’s club looking at a 20-22 record with a -39 run differential. Although not incredibly lopsided, the run differential led to a Pythagorean win total of one game less than where they ended up.
     
    It’s unfortunate that Minnesota doesn’t see Cleveland more while they’re dealing with injuries here in the early going. They do get Kansas City for two though, and then have ten games against the Blue Jays and Orioles within a two-week span to end the month. It’s those opportunities that have the potential to be season defining for this collection. Beating teams they should needs to be a mantra in 2019, and there’s a trio of opponents within the division that fall into the same category.
     
    There’s no reason to draw significant conclusions from the early going in a 162-game regular season, but the reality is that taking care of business from the get-go sets up a road that is much more manageable down the stretch. Baldelli can’t let this team leave April with a record reminiscent of the 9-15 they were last season, and there should be plenty of opportunity for them to be much better than that.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into 2019, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have an advantage they were not previously afforded. Picking their manager for the first time as the duo leading the organization, Rocco Baldelli represents opportunity. It’s not only the skipper though, as we’ve seen the Twins front office infuse talent across all levels of development this winter. Being impressed with what’s been done, it’s worth wondering if this is really what we were always waiting for.
     
    When the new front office took over for Terry Ryan, the ownership group decided they would be saddled with manager Paul Molitor. Sure, he was a hometown hero and had ties to the organization, but that seemed like an odd mandate to force on a culture shift. The Minnesota manager was coming off a 103-loss season and did little to substantiate the 83 wins in his first go around. Surprisingly the club won 85 games, and despite a Postseason berth and Manager of the Year nod, the feeling was always that it was maybe time to part ways.
     
    The front office couldn’t make the move they were obviously leaning towards and needed an opportunity for a clean break. 2018 provided that, and where we are today has only cemented to desire to make a shift. Not only is Baldelli green as a manager, but the Twins have a pitching coach who has only worked in college, and an assistant closer to still being a player than leaning on a resume of development. Looking at it all, it’s obvious what the vision for the front office truly is.
     
    Despite a spending deficiency in the form of payroll, the Twins have dropped a significant amount of cash on the coaching and development side of the house. New coaches have been brought in across the minor league ranks, and no stone has been left unturned when it comes to finding that talent. Dollars have been allocated to Rapsodo devices and Edgertronic cameras, money has been spent on analytics salaries, and in general, every competitive advantage has been explored.
     
    As we’ve seen with the changing free agent landscape this winter, teams are spending smarter and working harder. No longer are fringe big leaguers finding guaranteed or lucrative deals. Instead teams are looking to find players with the ability to unlock talent that is hidden behind a small tweak. Minnesota is attempting this exact thing in the form of Matt Magill and Martin Perez. Using the infrastructure, they’ve now set up, and the expertise of the newly acquired Wes Johnson, the hope is that the results bear fruit.
     
    What it all boils down to is wondering where we’d be at if this all happened a bit sooner. 2019 is being billed as a season in which Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton help to dictate the future. While they will both play an integral role in that reality, having had this infrastructure in place a year or two ago may have helped to create consistency the organization so badly has desired. Rather than up and down years, or not being able to pinpoint reasons for success, the Twins now have a clear blueprint for process to drive results.
     
    There’s room to be frustrated with the lack of pitching additions this winter. There’s legitimacy to wondering why payroll hasn’t properly been allocated. There isn’t any question about the intentions driving development and coaching, however. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have welcomed more information, and they’ve also hired and placed individuals in position to disseminate that knowledge in usable ways. We’ll see if it all works, but it’s hard not to view it as exciting.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the course of the winter the Minnesota Twins did a lot of good things. The front office continued bringing in top tier developmental talent. They added pop to the lineup, and Rocco Baldelli looks the part of an exciting big-league manager. What they didn’t do was address a pitching staff, and namely a bullpen, that looked like it could use some help. Now with the depth being tested, an unexpected stalwart has emerged. Can Ryne Harper be the hero no one knew they were expecting.
     
    Entering Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, Harper looked like a long shot to make the 25-man roster. Despite once having his contract selected, he’s never played in a big-league game, and has something like three days of service time accrued. The 29-year-old turned in a nice 2.54 ERA across 39 IP at Double-A last season but stumbled to the tune of a 5.19 ERA with Triple-A Rochester.
     
    The surface numbers have been mostly good for Harper, but it’s the ratios that jump off the page for me. Across 65 IP on the farm last season, he posted an 11.9 K/9 with a sparkling 1.4 BB/9. In just over 450 innings of minor league relief, Harper owns an 11.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. Should that hold up at the big-league level any club would find themselves in a state of ecstasy.
     
    Having not gotten any major league time to date in his career, it’s been on the back of an exceptional Spring Training that will likely get Ryne over the hump. Working 11 innings down in Fort Myers, Harper turned in a flawless 0.00 ERA allowing just two unearned runs. He’s given up only seven hits while fanning 14 and walking none.
     
    Look at the Twitter feed of Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming and you’ll find a barrage of benders that are certainly Pitching Ninja worthy. It’s on the back of this pitch that Harper has burst onto the scene, and he’s had hitters of all abilities looking plenty foolish the past few weeks. Pairing his curveball with pinpoint command has added up to a blueprint that should translate just fine when the games start to matter later this week. He’ll likely take home the coveted Sire of Fort Myers trophy, but a big-league payday should be a nice secondary prize as well.
     
    It’s always great when an unexpected talent pops up and can make a big-league impact. It’s never going to be expected from a late blooming, career minor leaguer. Minnesota is also banking on this kind of situation with Matt Magill. Whether or not Harper and Magill can provide consistency over the course of a full season remains to be seen, however. There should be some level of fear or caution regarding how the pen fares for the Twins, but these glimmers of hope are feel-good stories in the present.
     
    Maybe Harper was a guy that the front office knew they could count on all along. Maybe Baldelli and Wes Johnson saw a moldable piece that was just waiting to be unleashed. We’ve seen the results in exhibition contents. The next piece of this puzzle is putting up numbers when it counts.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Today, six days before Minnesota welcomes the Cleveland Indians to Target Field, the Twins sent star pitcher Fernando Romero to Triple-A. The once highly-touted starting pitching prospect had been transitioned to relief work this spring. He was talked up as having electric stuff and being a real weapon out of Rocco Baldelli’s pen. Unfortunately, when the rubber met the road, there was more seasoning to be had. That isn’t the problem, but the fallout is.
     
    Across 9.2 IP down in Fort Myers, Romero coughed up 10 runs (nine earned) and fanned seven while walking eight. He had started out strong, and really faltered down the stretch. With Opening Day firmly in focus, the decision had to be made. Romero was going to need more time settling into his new role for Rochester.
     
    While it’s more than fair to suggest keeping Romero stretched out as a starter would’ve made sense, the consensus could be that he simply isn’t cut out for it. Regardless of the feelings from 1 Twins Way, the reality is that Romero is now going to upstate New York and will work a couple times a week throwing something like 20 pitches per outing. It will groom him for the role outlined for him in 2019 but doesn’t do much to help development as a rotation factor in the years ahead. We now know Romero’s path, and it was written on the wall for a matter of days now, but this is where Minnesota’s offseason starts to fall apart.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine failed to address pitching in almost any capacity. Blake Parker and Martin Perez have the chops to be nice additions, but they do little to raise the overall water level of the group, and don’t enhance depth at all. Going into Spring Training, Romero was viewed as (and talked about from team officials) as a key cog in this pitching staff. The minute that didn’t happen, things start to crumble. Add in the fact that Addison Reed hasn’t looked good at all, is now hurt with a trip to the IL possible, and things get rather bleak quick.
     
    Non-roster invitees Ryne Harper and Tim Collins are the two biggest names left in camp vying for one bullpen spot. Both have shown incredibly well, and Collins was a big name a few years ago for the Royals. It’s commendable that both have seized their opportunity, but them factoring onto an Opening Day roster that should have a divisional opportunity in front of them is a result of poor planning.
     
    Collins threw just over 20 innings with the Nationals last year. He was just ok, and he hasn’t been a big-league staple since 2013. His last (and only) truly good year was 2012, and he’s now both aged and gone under the knife since then. Harper has displayed a Bugs Bunny curveball but he’s a near-30-year-old career minor leaguer. He posted a 5.19 ERA at Triple-A Rochester last season, and while the strikeout and walk rates have both been great on the farm, no one has ever deemed it worthy of a callup.
     
    Neither option, Collins or Harper, is at fault for this. If nothing else, they’re doing everything in their power to be the solution to an organizational problem. By relying solely on the emergence of Romero, or the breakout of Matt Magill, Minnesota’s brass balked at opportunities to sign Joakim Soria, Kelvin Herrera, Brad Brach, Adam Ottavino, or even Craig Kimbrel. Martin Perez could’ve been added with another starter, allowing the “loser” to go to the pen. Any number of options could’ve been explored, but the suggestion was that we have this figured out.
     
    Maybe a handful of months from now we’ll look back on this as much ado about nothing. Romero could figure it out quick at Triple-A, come up and immediately be the weapon he was billed as. Maybe Collins or Harper will stick, and the front office will look great for their conviction. The flip side, however, is that the already non-existent depth is being exposed before Opening Day, and we know more names are going to be called upon.
     
    Paying relievers, and pitchers in general, is a fickle business practice. Good teams don’t let the elite pitchers get away and cashing in on high quality relievers before they go belly up is a smart practice. Playing in the minefield of free agency for these types is dicey, but unless you have a reliable stable on your own, targeting strong depth that pushes everyone else down a rung makes a ton of sense.
     
    The expectation for this club should be, and will remain, that the lineup will hit. Production 1-9 from this group should be plenty to win games on a nightly basis. Where they might lose the credibility comes in the form of trust placed on a suspect pitching staff serving up many more questions than answers. Right now, the front office believes in depth arms, I’m not ready to support them in that though. Here’s to hoping it’s this blogger with egg on his face.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    I’ve been waiting for this post all spring. It typically signifies that the season is just around the corner, and it’s always enjoyable to put something on the line when looking at what may lie ahead. Thanks to Bovada’s in depth odds offerings, we have a plethora of great Twins options to choose from. Looking back at the 2018 results things weren’t pretty. Thanks to a duo of underperformers and some bad luck, not much went our way. New season, new opportunity, let’s try to rectify that.
     
    To provide some context for my thought process going into this, make sure you’re aware I have the Twins winning 92 games and taking the AL Central this year. If I’m going to be of that belief, I’ll need producers to back the potential reality. This obviously does leave positive-trending bets open to being exposed, but it also serves as a foundation for them being placed.
     
    Jonathan Schoop O/U 22.5 HR
     
    Minnesota quickly turned the page on Brian Dozier by targeting Schoop early this offseason. After the Brewers decided to non-tender him, the Twins scooped in and inked a new second basemen to a $7.5 million deal. 2018 was not kind to Schoop, and after being a first-time All Star in 2017, he plummeted to a .682 OPS. Obviously, the Minnesota front office is projecting a rebound for him in 2019, and the track record suggests that’s a fair assumption. Even while scuffling last year Schoop still parked 21 longballs, and that’s noteworthy. Yes, 17 of them came at Camden Yards, and yes, he hit just four in Miller Park, but this is a bet I’ll gladly make.
     
    Over 22.5 HRs 3*
     
    Eddie Rosario O/U 24.5 HR
     
    Last season I took the under on this exact same bet, and Rosario hit 24 on the button. The left fielder swatted 27 back in 2017 and getting back towards that number seems like a fair bet. Rosario played in just 138 games last season and regressed a bit when it comes to plate discipline. After making strides for the 2017 season, he got back up to a 42.9% chase rate, and whiffed 12.7% of the time. Hopefully he can push those numbers back towards the 2017 marks and utilize a full season to generate complete production. I feel like Eddie is close to a finished product at this point, which makes this number seem like such a coin toss.
     
    Over 24.5 HRs 2*
     
    Jose Berrios O/U 190.5 K
     
    During the 2018 campaign Minnesota’s ace tallied 202 strikeouts. He turned in four starts in which he reached double digits, but none of them came after June 24. On top of that, Berrios struck out five or less batters in 11 (of his 32) starts. The young Puerto Rican has the stuff to be among the games best, and a more consistent statistical output could elevate his overall impact. The double-digit games will still come but avoiding lumps in 2019 should make a dramatic impact as well. I like Berrios as a dark horse for the AL Cy Young (you can get him at 25/1), so I’d need to lean towards year-over-year improvement.
     
    Over 190.5 K 2*
     
    Jose Berrios O/U 12 W
     
    This is another copycat bet from the 2018 season, and Berrios pushed on that number. In 32 starts he drew just 23 decisions and nearly posted a .500 record. This Twins club should be better than that one, and while pitching remains an unknown, there’s no denying who the ace of the staff is. Barring injury, Berrios will get the most turns, and this lineup should have no problem supporting good outings.
     
    Over 12 W 3*
     
    Nelson Cruz O/U 33.5 HR
     
    When Derek Falvey went out and signed Cruz, he got the most prolific power hitter on the open market. No one has more dingers than Cruz since the 2014 Major League Baseball season, and he did all that work in the unfriendly confines of Safeco Field. Target Field’s left field line will be a welcomed site for the Dominican slugger, and it you though Brian Dozier was pull happy to the bleachers, well just get ready. Cruz is 38, and while father time is undefeated, give me the reliance on his power for the heart of this lineup. He hasn’t hit less than 37 taters since 2013 and he played in just 109 games at that point still working into regular playing time.
     
    Over 33.5 HR 4*
     
    Minnesota Twins O/U 84.5 W
     
    The expectation of this bet should be obvious; I started this piece off suggesting 92 victories for Rocco Baldelli’s first season at the helm. Minnesota entered the 2018 season with an O/U like this mark, and it’s only because of the poor year that the number didn’t rise. Sure, the Twins should’ve done more to address their pitching. That said, Cleveland got worse, the White Sox aren’t yet ready, and the doldrums of the division are a dumpster fire. Indicative more of the small payout and long wait, the risk is simply to get skin in the game.
     
    Over 84.5 W 1*
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    As the 2019 Major League Baseball season quickly approaches, I find myself running out of time to get out ahead of the yearly prediction game. Looking at the key individual awards, as well as how the Postseason will shake out, there’s plenty of excitement to come in the year ahead. I am of the belief there’s a significant number of teams not currently trying, but there’s a good cluster that will battle against each other in both leagues this year.
     
    Before we get to how I see the year going for teams, it’s worth looking at what the cream of the crop may look like individually. We don’t have the obvious Shohei Ohtani out of the gate, and we’ll need to see the emergence of the next Ronald Acuna or Juan Soto. Pitching awards are littered with favorites of guys that have done it all before, but there’s also some new names right on the cusp. Here’s who I see capturing individual recognition.
     
    MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Carlos Correa) National League – Nolan Arenado (Dark Horse Cody Bellinger)
     
    One guy is looking for his third MVP award while another is looking to get over the hump and capture his first. Mookie Betts jumped up and nabbed the title out from under Mike Trout last year, but the greatest player in the game is ready to take back his throne in 2019. On the flip side, Arenado came ever so close to his first MVP a season ago but fell just short. With the ink still drying on his newly signed contract extension, he should find the hardware as a nice reward for his efforts.
     
    I’m not all in on either dark horse candidate here but think they both have some nice post-hype appeal. Correa hasn’t played a full season in two years, but flashed MVP caliber abilities at multiple points throughout his career. Bellinger ran away with the Rookie of the Year vote in 2017, and then slide backwards a bit in 2018. I’d think his true ability lies somewhere in between, but at just 23-years-old, there’s no reason to think that the ceiling may not be even higher.
     
    Cy Young: American League – Justin Verlander (Dark Horse Jose Berrios) National League – Walker Buehler (Dark Horse German Marquez)
     
    Outside of Verlander, this may be my favorite prediction of the offseason. I love how many new names are popping up on the elite pitching scene, and as baseball fans, we all stand to benefit from them. Verlander was right there a season ago and could be looking at his second victory (and first with the Astros). For the Dodgers it’s obviously disheartening seeing the decline of the great Clayton Kershaw, but what better way to mitigate that than to have Walker Buehler in tow. This kid is the real deal, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we’re talking about multiple victories a handful of years from now.
     
    The dark horse candidates for the Cy Young are so fun. Jose Berrios is already a staff ace for the Minnesota Twins, and looks like a bit more refinement could have him making a significant leap forward. The breaking pitches are ridiculous and commanding them a bit better should do the trick. German Marquez may be the best under-the-radar hurler in the game right now, and he’s working to dispel the notion that pitchers can’t be great in Colorado (with teammate Kyle Freeland doing the same).
     
    Rookie of the Year: American League – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Dark Horse Forrest Whitley) National League – Victor Robles (Dark Horse Nick Senzel)
     
    There’s no prospect that has been talked up more in baseball than Vlad Jr. Son of the recently inducted Hall of Famer, Guerrero Jr. wields a bat that is otherworldly. The Blue Jays have suppressed his service time all they can, and while he’ll need to wait a few more weeks before breaking into the big leagues, there’s no reason why the bat shouldn’t play. He’s not going to last at third base long, but if the OPS is north of .900 in his debut campaign, he’ll run away with this. Now that Bryce Harper is gone for the Nationals, Victor Robles finally has a clear path to playing time. Previously the best overall prospect in baseball, his breakout following teammate Juan Soto of a year ago would be a nice development for Washington.
     
    It almost seems unfair that the Astros would be able to add another ace to their pitching staff, but Forrest Whitley could prove to be just that. The best pitching prospect in the game has looked great this spring, and he’d be a mid-season addition any team would love to have. He may not be up long enough to catch Vlad, but he should make this interesting. The Reds are going to give Nick Senzel a shot to stick in the outfield after coming through the system as an infielder. His bat should play for both average and power, while all early indications suggest he’s made a seamless position change.
     
    Postseason:
    American League - Yankees, Twins, Astros Wild Card – Red Sox, Angels
    National League – Nationals, Brewers, Dodgers Wild Card – Phillies, Rockies
    ALDS – Astros over Yankees
    NLDS – Nationals over Dodgers
    World Series – Astros over Nationals
     
    A big believer in what the Nationals did this offseason, despite losing Bryce Harper, they’re going to be a tough team to beat. That rotation should be one of the best in baseball, and is Robles breaks out as expected, their outfield could challenge that title as well. Depth could be a concern in multiple places here, but I like what Dave Martinez must work with.
     
    Houston came up just short last season losing to the Red Sox in five games. Boston has taken a step backwards, and the Astros are ready to make it two World Series victories in three years. This lineup is loaded, the pitching staff is for real, and A.J. Hinch has a group that knows how to win.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    It’s nearly the middle of March, and the Minnesota Twins are just 17 days away from their 2019 Opening Day game against the Cleveland Indians. Roughly one month ago I made my first roster projection for the season, and a handful of things have transpired since then. Heading down to Fort Myers to see the club in action this week, I figured now was a good time to come out with a revised edition.
     
    Most notably, the club signed Marwin Gonzalez and Miguel Sano is destined to begin the season on the Injured List. That shuffles a few things for position players, but there’s a relative level of clarity there. It’s on the pitching side that things remain up in the air, and that will be worth monitoring down the stretch.
     
    Here’s how I see things looking on March 28 given the information we have today.
     
    Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez
    Changes: None
     
    The rotation has all been locked in since the beginning of Spring Training. Martin Perez was inked as the 5th starter, and while the move has drawn plenty of ire (myself included), it appears the Twins are right thus far. Wes Johnson has the former Rangers prospect shoving near 97 mph, and he’s working with a different pitch mix that could unlock a new level of effectiveness. Minnesota targeted Anibal Sanchez as an outlier last year and witnessed him succeed in the Braves organization. Perez looks to be that guy in 2019, and everyone wants to see it come together here.
     
    Bullpen (7): Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Matt Magill
    Changes: Addison Reed to IL
     
    Addison Reed was signed to a two-year contract last winter, and he was coming off a 2.84 ERA. He’s been very good out of the pen for most of his career, and he’d pitched in high-leverage situations tallying 125 saves to his credit. Unfortunately, with Minnesota, he turned in a 4.50 ERA, 5.11 FIP, and the strikeout numbers sagged dramatically. He also lost another mph of velocity for the third year in a row, and the swinging strikes fell off a cliff. Despite the small sample, spring training hasn’t been kind to him either. I’m not sure if he’s still hurt from 2018, but the club could make a case to stash him and let him find a bit more success on a rehab stint.
     
    Should the Twins decide that Reed is right, and he needs to come north, the decision then comes down to the trio of Matt Magill, Trevor Hildenberger, and Fernando Romero. Magill looks like he has plenty of supporters in the clubhouse and will make the roster. Hildenberger has options, but despite late season struggles, has been plenty reliable in the past. No matter how much talk there’s been about Romero, letting him have a couple weeks of working as a reliever in real game action at Triple-A could be good. If Minnesota needs to make a tough decision, I’d bet on it being a short trip to Rochester for Fernando.
     
    Catchers (3): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver
    Changes: Add Willians Astudillo
     
    There’s somewhat of a domino effect caused by Miguel Sano needing to start the year on the IL. Marwin Gonzalez goes from super utility to primary third basemen, and that opens a bench spot. Astudillo isn’t the most ideal catcher, but he provides defensive flexibility with the ability to play all over the diamond. La Tortuga probably isn’t going to live up to his September hype, but he’ll be given the opportunity early.
     
    Castro returns with a clean bill of health, and although he’ll be the presumed starter, a defensively revitalized Mitch Garver could challenge sooner rather than later. Castro is in the final year of his deal, and Garver assuming a more serious hold on the full-time role would be a great development for the Twins.
     
    Infielders (5): C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez
    Changes: Miguel Sano to IL, Lucas Duda released
     
    Miguel Sano had as impressive of a winter as the Twins could’ve hoped, but it ended on an unlucky note with a gash to the back of his heel halting the start of his 2019 season. He’ll be ready in May, but we could end up waiting to see him until June. That development makes the addition of Marwin Gonzalez even more imperative.
     
    The Astros used Marwin all over the place last year, and Minnesota will likely do the same as soon as they are able. Ehire Adrianza will be able to spell most of the infield positions, and Marwin will need to slot in primarily at third from the get-go. A platoon at first base doesn’t appear likely, meaning Tyler Austin needs to be dealt or passed through waivers (unlikely) before hitting Triple-A. Duda was a nice get for camp, but not making the team, he’ll look to latch on elsewhere.
     
    Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave
    Changes: None
     
    No changes to the outfield, and that’s a serious positive for this group. Byron Buxton has been en fuego this spring, while the starting trio has remained healthy. Jake Cave is due for some regression from his impressive rookie season, but he’s more than a serviceable fourth regardless.
     
    It took a while for Nelson Cruz to appear in game action this spring, but being the veteran he is, that was never cause for concern. He won’t play outfield aside from the remote possibility of appearing in interleague action. That said, the 38-year-old year old should launch plenty of longballs from the heart of Minnesota’s lineup this year.
     
    If there is something to monitor here, it’s Michael Reed. Like Jake Cave before him, the front office tabbed Reed as a player with a potential for more. He was hurt to start the spring and has just begun getting into game action. Zack Granite was jettisoned off the 40 man before him, and the hope would be that he could be shipped to Triple-A. Without options though, Reed will need to clear waivers before being able to be removed off the 40 man.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins employed one of the best catchers Major League Baseball has ever seen. Up until the point that a brain injury forced him out from behind the plate, Joe Mauer was on a trajectory we hadn’t seen since Johnny Bench. Following the positional change, the organization has been starved for the next “it” factor behind the plate. Jason Castro has been the only designated long-term solution, but it’s an internally developed option that is at the doorstep of a breakthrough.
     
    After getting called up for a cup of coffee in September of 2017, Mitch Garver enjoyed his rookie tour during the 2018 Twins campaign. Playing in 102 games as the backup to Castro, he split the work nearly right down the middle. Castro suffered an injury that left him playing just 19 games for Paul Molitor, and Garver ceded duties to veteran journeyman such as Bobby Wilson and Chris Gimenez. In the time that he was the guy, it seemed obvious there was talent to his credit, but a defensive liability had been holding him back.
     
    Looking over some of the numbers, this was bore out in the data as well. Strike zone runs saved had Garver at -8, which was tied for third-worst among 86 catchers to log at least 100 innings behind the dish. His -16 DRS was better than only Nick Hundley across the same sample size, and ball skills were something that appeared to be an ever-present bugaboo. For however frustrating that may have been to fans watching on TV, you can bet Garver took it much harder.
     
    In a recent piece The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Eno Saris tagged teamed, Garver said, “Apparently, the people on Twitter realized I was the worst defensive catcher in the league, and they let me know about it — even though I already knew.” Minnesota now employs Tanner Swanson as their Minor League Catching Coordinator, and despite being a college coach previously, his impact is seen throughout the organization.
     
    Over the course of spring training, many fans have wondered about the crouches they’ve seen from Twins behind the plate. With a focus on stealing more strikes, presenting a better ball, and providing the umpire a stronger vantage point, a highlight on each pitch has been the goal. Garver has worked plenty on his own over the course of the offseason, but his immediate development under Swanson has also drawn rave reviews throughout the organization as well. A step forward defensively gives us reason to wonder what’s next for the New Mexico product.
     
    When the dust settled on 2018, Garver was worth 1.3 fWAR making him the 16th best catcher in baseball. Despite being a cumulative statistic, Garver was able to compile that tally in an injury shortened season, while being negatively impacted by his poor defensive play. That only goes to show just how important his offensive impact may be.
     
    No matter what level of the system you look at, Mitch has always hit. His .679 OPS at Elizabethton during the first year of pro ball was reflective of a lacking power stroke. From there he posted an .880 OPS at Low-A and went on to tally an .815 OPS during his first taste of Triple-A ball. Before being promoted to the Twins, Garver rounded out his minors career with a scintillating .928 OPS across 88 games for Rochester. Whatever defensive deficiencies had been present on the farm, were certainly overshadowed by how well the bat had played.
     
    Although a .749 OPS isn’t earth-shattering by any means, it was the 10th best number across baseball for backstops. He was just one point shy of Yadier Molina, and within legitimate striking distance of a top six mark across baseball. Mitch has always mashed lefties, posting a .938 OPS against them in his final Triple-A stint. With Minnesota last year though, he owned an .806 mark against righties, with just a .629 OPS against southpaws. Hitting just seven homers in 335 plate appearances, only on came off left-handed pitchers. If that doesn’t sound like opportunity, I don’t know what does.
     
    Making loud contact with a hard-hit rate north of 40%, the opportunity for growth is there. Minnesota would like to see advancement on the 8% HR/FB ratio, as well as an increase in the fly ball and line drive outcomes. At just a 7.8% career swinging strike rate, and only a 22.4% chase rate, Mitch has the zone plenty honed in. The numbers suggest it’s about making the outcomes work more in his favor, using the inputs already at play.
     
    Rocco Baldelli gets a backstop on the last year of a veteran deal in Jason Castro this season. Willians Astudillo is a fun swiss army knife that’s not an ideal catching option. Mitch Garver though, is the 1B to a likely platoon, that could take over as the starter and run away with the opportunity. Another year of acclimation at the plate makes the bat more than exciting, and if the defensive development is to be believed, the floor ends up skyrocketing towards the roof. You aren’t ever going to recreate a Joe Mauer type catcher, but Minnesota could have one of the better options in baseball if everything goes as planned.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge.
     
    Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26, 2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for the American League Central playing out:
     
    1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (83-79)
     
    No team has done more in the division to take strides forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in their decision making.
     
    2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66)
     
    Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as well as Carlos Santana. They’ve replaced the latter with Edwin Encarnacion, but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with surrounding this team.
     
    3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92)
     
    One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the fun ends.
     
    4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90)
     
    Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3rd when Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft.
     
    5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95)
     
    If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5th overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in 2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins had plenty of opportunity to make waves. Playing in a bad AL Central division with a strong farm system on the rise, jump starting a competitive window seemingly was the obvious play for the front office. At this point, they’ve upgraded the offense while ignoring their pitching staff. In the bullpen, the most central name in all of this is none other than Matt Magill.
     
    The 29-year-old returned to the majors in 2018 after having big league stints during 2013 and 2016. He logged 56.2 IP under the tutelage of Paul Molitor, and his 3.81 ERA was plenty shiny. That’s where the luster wears off. Under the hood is an ugly 5.08 FIP, 1.7 HR/9, and a 1.429 WHIP. He did average 95 mph on his fastball last season, and the 75% contact rate was plenty workable, but in the big leagues, there needs to be more.
     
    Magill needed just 8.2 IP in Rochester prior to getting the call for Minnesota. His minor league track record has been relatively spotty though, and there’s the tale of a guy who owns middle-of-the-road numbers in just about every stop he makes. Knowing that Rocco Baldelli could use a significantly upgraded bullpen, it’s curious as to why such a smart front office would go down this path.
     
    Currently Minnesota is all but accepting the idea that Magill and Fernando Romero will round out the final two spots in relief. The former is a regression candidate waiting to happen, while the latter is a starter being pushed into this position. There’s nothing to suggest that Romero couldn’t move back to the rotation in the future, but this duo has become plan A as opposed to being the fallback for what could have been better executed.
     
    As big-league talent signs on minor league deals, and quality options remain free agents despite the Twins having an abundance of unused funds, the blueprint seems sketchy at best. Spending on relievers is hardly a winning strategy in a vacuum, but right now Minnesota has a need along with a position in which cash considerations aren’t a factor now or the future.
     
    There’s zero argument to be made against the substantial upgrade that Craig Kimbrel would provide in relief for the Twins. Baldelli is tasked with a dart throw or committee approach at present, and while saves aren’t a worthy chase, that level of reliever takes the collective whole up another notch. Shying away from relief, Dallas Keuchel would improve the rotation, and in turn allow Martin Perez to bolster the pen. Something like $20 million per year for either of these guys does nothing to the Twins bottom line and would undoubtedly be a more realistic process to drive results.
     
    At the end of the day, Minnesota isn’t doing anything with the bullpen or the rotation. Matt Magill and his shiny ERA are somewhat of a defining principle for how this offseason has been handled. Sure, there’s plenty of reason to look for more, but why not see what regression we can hope to stave off? In relief, the Twins start with a low bar, and they’ll need to bet on the bottom not falling out.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    Right now, the Minnesota Twins have a tentative five-man starting rotation penciled in for 2019. Martin Perez was signed as a free agent to round out the group, and Michael Pineda will pitch for the first time in a Twins uniform. No matter how set the plan may be today however, there’s no denying a wrench will soon be thrown into it. How things are handled from there are worth speculating about.
     
    The reality for the Twins is that they’ve burned through pitchers in recent seasons. Both in the rotation and the bullpen, no number of fresh arms have been enough. The good part of this equation is that depth is being stockpiled on both fronts and that gives us something to look at. While there’s no argument against the fact that the front office could’ve added more arm talent this winter, we’re now in a spot to consider what is readily available to them.
     
    During the 2018 season players like Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, and Stephen Gonsalves all got their shot. Zack Littell showed up in the big leagues, and some higher tier prospects made significant strides on the farm. In 2019 though, there’s just one guy I’m keying in on, and he comes from the Land Down Under.
     
    Lewis Thorpe missed two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery and then illness. Since his return though, he’s done nothing but vault up prospect rankings and lay waster to opposing hitters. At 22 last season, he reached Triple-A for the first time in his career. Through four rotation turns Thorpe posted a 3.32 ERA along with a 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. As a lefty, he’s not the soft-tossing crafty type, with an ability to put the ball by opposing hitters. The strikeout stuff has been there throughout his whole career, as evidenced by a 10.7 K/9 across 328.1 minor league IP.
     
    Recently turning 23, Thorpe should factor into the Rochester rotation from day one. Fernando Romero looks like he’ll work in Minnesota as a reliever and Adalberto Mejia needs to make the big-league roster being out of options. Those developments put Thorpe in a group with guys like Gonsalves and Stewart. Everyone at Triple-A will have some level of prospect status and be looked upon as depth at some point during 2019. For Thorpe though, he could certainly find himself creating distance from the pack.
     
    It seems that while there are top pitching prospects that get focus each season, like Romero and Gonsalves last year, there’s guys that pop up and take the reigns like Littell did early. I’m not sure how the season will go for any of the guys pitching for the Red Wings, but I’d bet against Thorpe being held down. If the capability he has shown over the past two seasons is on display early, he could push for big league time soon.
     
    Baldelli’s starting rotation could use some help on the back end, and despite Dallas Keuchel being able to provide that, he doesn’t seem to be on Minnesota’s radar. The emergence, and sustainability of an internal talent would be a great reality, and the Aussie has as good of a shot as anyone to provide that.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    Down in sunny Fort Myers, Florida the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers have officially reported, and practice is underway. With many position players either already in camp, or soon to join them, real game action is not far off. Attempting to decipher how Rocco Baldelli will shape his first major league roster should be a fun exercise and doing a first projection before we see anything take shape is plenty exciting.
     
    In past seasons there was some level of continuity with how Paul Molitor wanted his roster to look. The front office had influence, but it was the skipper that ultimately was responsible for the 25 men that headed north. Now having to get used to a new process, we’ll have to figure out how the former Rays star feels about organizing the ends of his roster.
     
    For your first Opening Day roster projection of 2019, here’s how I see the Twins embarking upon Target Field:
     
    Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez
     
    Barring another signing, this group looks to be inked in pen. The Perez signing is a head scratcher, and he was better in relief for the Rangers in 2018. That said, the front office has been bullish about him being their 5th guy, and none of the depth behind him makes that a ridiculous proposition. Minnesota could still go out and acquire another arm, with the bar being relatively low, but today this is where we’re at.
     
    Bullpen (7): Trevor May, Addison Reed, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero
     
    The Twins bullpen was an area capable of improving the most going into 2019, and while it’s ok, there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Rogers looks like a very reliable, and high-quality arm, while May projects as one of the better relievers in the division. Reed is a prime candidate for a bounce back year and Hildenberger has flashed plenty of potential in his previous exploits. Mejia is out of options, and I’d imagine the Twins won’t move on without reason. Really the only question here is what happens with Romero. Ideally, he still gets developed as a starter, but he could very well be an elite level reliever right now.
     
    Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver
     
    Going into the year Castro will get the lion’s share of the reps but seeing that swing as the season goes on would not be a surprise. Garver needs to take steps forward defensively, but the bat is impressive and needs to be in the lineup often. He was under-utilized at times by Molitor, and that’s hopefully not a path Baldelli goes down. There’s no Willians Astudillo here which will disappoint some, but his days as a catcher could also be limited.
     
    Infielders (6): C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, Lucas Duda
     
    There’s not much question regarding the starters around the diamond. I could listen to an argument that Duda and Tyler Austin make up a platoon that pushes out Cron, but I don’t think there’s much steam to that. The front office made upgrades at both first and second base this winter, and the returning tandem of Sano and Polanco looks enticing on paper. Adrianza will once again play the utility role, and Duda as a platoon partner and bench bat makes a good deal of sense.
     
    Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave
     
    Like the infield, Minnesota’s outfield is all but set in stone. The corners are well established, and Buxton will return to start in center. This needs to be the campaign in which he puts it all together, and that taking shape could lead to his first All Star appearance. Nelson Cruz is going to be a full-time DH but could see time in the field during interleague play, although everyone would probably prefer that doesn’t happen. There should be worry about regression from Cave this year, and that could open the door for another suitor, but he’ll have the role to start.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    Miguel Sano enters the 2019 Major League Baseball season as one half of the Minnesota Twins largest question mark. The front office has tied the upcoming schedule to the production of both Sano and Byron Buxton. Needing to rebound from his worst year as a professional, it seems that an important development has taken place for the former top prospect. Commitment and accountability appear evident in a new report, and that’s always been the biggest question for the Dominican Native.
     
    Recently the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal penned a piece on possible extension candidates for the Twins. Within the writing he noted that the Minnesota third basemen has lost 25 pounds, which would comfortably put him in the 265-275 range. At 6’4” he’s still a very large human being, but there’s no denying that it’s a more doable number and a development that should only relieve pressure on the titanium rod inserted into his leg. For this writer though, it’s never been about the weight.
     
    Despite being signed as a shortstop, Sano bulked up and moved off the position quickly. He only continued to grow and add size as he progressed through the minors, and while much of that was muscle mass, the weight became an issue in recent years. Instructed by the Twins to take conditioning more seriously, in hopes of seeing a bump in production and renewed focus from the player, Sano failed to take the direction as anything more than advice. Despite being looked at as a key cornerstone, and knowing the investment made in him, the 25-year-old simply ignored his employer’s demands. With a trip back to Single-A and a .679 OPS in his rear-view mirror, the former All Star appears he’s finally had enough.
     
    Obviously, there are physical limitations to what is realistically acceptable for a high-performing athlete to adhere to, but from purely a weight standpoint I could care less. What has always seemed most important from Sano is that he buy into the vision the organization has for him and believe in their process to get the most out of himself. After posting a .916 OPS in his rookie season, the .859 OPS during his All-Star campaign left room for improvement. Strikeouts are always going to be a part of a power hitters’ profile, but a consistent command of the strike zone and the ability to punish misses needs to be a key focus. Turning 26 in 2019, staving off a shift across the diamond or to a designated hitter role is also an integral piece of the puzzle.
     
    So where does this all leave us in the year ahead? If process drives results, the fact that Miguel has committed to a conditioning program (and more importantly his employer’s wishes), suggests he’s on board with believing there’s more in the tank. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have him slated for just a .752 OPS. Obviously that number doesn’t account for his injury or the ramifications of his 2018 output. Using that as a baseline however, I’d like to bet on the over.
     
    At his best, Sano is a monster in the batter’s box. He punished baseballs with a hard-hit rate north of 44%. Fly balls leave the yard over a quarter of the time, and he chases out of the zone less than 25% while also missing under 15% of the time. That profile doesn’t work for everyone, but a player having the strength and slugging ability that this one does, it’s a perfect storm of relevancy.
     
    On top of his own decisions this winter, Miguel may find accountability in the form of a clubhouse confidant for 2019. 38-year-old countryman Nelson Cruz joins the Twins fold for the year ahead. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly debut until he was 28 years old. With more than enough wisdom to his credit, imparting learned principles on Sano could be a valuable development that holds weight well beyond whatever time they spend competing together.
     
    As a new manager, Rocco Baldelli’s greatest accomplishment in the year ahead is going to be how well he can connect with and what he can generate out of his expected stars. Right now, it seems like the one playing the infield is catching up to the one in the outfield as far as desire is concerned, and that’s more than half of the battle.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    For weeks we’ve seen news outlets and beat writers suggest that the Twins have instructed them the focus for 2019 has been in seeing what Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano bring to the table. In a sport with a 25-man roster, the front office has trotted out a narrative that suggests the year ahead rests solely on the shoulders of a once promising duo. The reality in all of this is that same suggestion could be turned in to Minnesota punting on the season ahead, and the constructs of that suggestion remain relatively similar.
     
    When 2018 ended the Minnesota Twins were done paying Joe Mauer $23 million a season for a contract that he easily earned. Regardless of whether or not he retired, the organization had no substantial money committed anywhere for either the year ahead or those to come. Given that situation, the hope was that the front office would find a way to allocate dollars and acquire talent for the road ahead. New faces have been brought in, but the reality is that the finished product looks like a half-hearted job.
     
    Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training this week, a point in which the offseason was generally seen as concluded. Last season we watched as Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison joined the club after that point, and in 2019, the top three free agents are still homeless when it comes to a team for the year ahead. Although a significant amount of deals have been done, there’re impactful moves for plenty of organizations still to take place.
    In Minnesota, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine essentially have sat on their hands and suggested they’re good with “just enough.”
     
    Right now most projection systems have the 2019 Twins tabbed for somewhere in the mid-80s as a win total. With Cleveland coming in about 10 games higher than that, the division certainly will go through the Indians once again. Given the steps back Terry Francona’s team has taken on paper however, it’s beyond disheartening to see Minnesota giving up on an attempt to make things interesting.
     
    There’s currently a $30 million deficit between year-over-year spending. Sure this market will never compete with the biggest in baseball, but the $128 million bill for the 2018 squad was hardly breaking the bank for anyone connected to the Pohlad’s. It was a reach to call it league average, and the revenues generated were still enormous. Given the payroll constraints for the current season and the next one, Falvey and Levine could legitimately pay any free agent $30 million on a one-year deal, or $60 million over two to join the Twins today.
     
    You’ll hear the retort that players have to want to come to the Twins, but it’s a suggestion that should fall on deaf ears. That premise operates under the guise that Minnesota is being turned down despite being the highest bidder. Last offseason Yu Darvish was the apple of the front office’s eye, and they lost out after failing to match the years in Chicago. Obviously that’s a bullet dodged today, but Minnesota got beat by themselves as opposed to an offer that genuinely allowed the player to weigh a possibility. Yasmani Grandal signed with the Brewers this winter on an extremely friendly deal, and while the Twins were “interested” and made an offer, things never went anywhere.
     
    So many things went wrong in Minnesota a season ago, and chief among them were the regression of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The club still ended up winning 78 games in an equally bad AL Central and is operating as if that’s the expectation for the year ahead. If Minnesota’s front office sees this team as a 75 game winner, then there’s no amount of free agent firepower that will close the gap. As an 80 win team banking on a rebound by former top prospects though, choosing to balk at more talent is irresponsible.
     
    Adalberto Mejia may start in the bullpen. Fernando Romero may transition to a reliever. Matt Magill could be the 25th man, and Rocco Baldelli could be served with a pitching staff filled with question marks in the season ahead. Or, those sitting atop the org chart at 1 Twins Way could throw their remaining cash at Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gonzalez or some other assets that sets things on a better foot, and we could let the chips fall where they may.
     
    If and when this season goes sideways, the front office can point back to suggesting they were waiting on Buxton and Sano. In reality, everyone is starting with a clean slate, and no one did less to capitalize on theirs than those in charge of righting the ship at Target Field.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    It was a simpler time, and it wasn’t long ago. The 2017 Minnesota Twins finished with 85 wins and ended their season with a Wild Card loss to the New York Yankees. Although the success didn’t carry over to 2018, their centerfielder was chief among the reasons that squad was competitive. Byron Buxton won a Gold Glove, was named the Defensive Player of the Year, and finished 18th in American League MVP voting. How crazy is it to think we could see that again?
     
    Back in 2017, the former first round pick was having a season of mediocrity at best. On July 14th, he owned a .218/.292/.311 slash line through his first 84 games. Then hitting the injured list and playing in three games at Triple-A before a big-league return, a new hot streak was started. Over Byron’s final 56 games in 2017 he posted a .298/.342/.541 slash line with 23 XBH (11 HRs) and 13 stolen bases. Already an elite defender, he flashed an elite bat that once had him ranked as the best prospect in all of baseball.
     
    Unfortunately, after that October game in the Bronx, nothing ever carried over to 2018. A slow start was combined with migraines and eventually a broken foot that ended his season at just 28 games played and 94 total plate appearances. It’s unfair to categorize last year as a poor showing for the Georgia native when the reality is that he was hurt and simply never was able to go. Fast forward to where we are today however, and there’s optimism with the slate wiped clean.
     
    The Athletic’s Dan Hayes recently penned a piece after spending time with Buxton this offseason. Added muscle and a September-sized chip on his shoulder, the 25-year-old seems determined to put fort his best effort yet. Where other players have a questionable motor, that has never been the issue for Byron. Talent and desire are all there, but the results have yet to follow the process. We know that players develop at rapidly different paces, and to bet against a guy with everything going for him, this early in his career, seems like a foolish proposition.
     
    Baseball Prospectus’ well-regarded projection system PECOTA recently unveiled numbers for 2019. Minnesota’s starting centerfielder is assumed to miss some time with just 403 plate appearances to his credit. In that time the expectation is a .233/.297/.386 slash line that results in 11 homers and 17 stolen bases. Although that seems like a harsh suggestion and low bar to clear, Buxton’s career line is just .230/.285/.387.
     
    Projection systems are based solely on hard and fast inputs, which is to be expected. The largest outlier in any expectation that this is where things turn for Buxton is predicated almost entirely on the human. A clean bill of health, added muscle, and determination to prove a 2018 decision wrong makes this writer’s gut feel as good as it’s going to get. I’ll take the over on that .683 OPS, and I’ll even suggest he trumps the .728 OPS from 2017. Those numbers will be enough to generate MVP votes once again, and I’d hardly be shocked if there’s an exhibition stop in Cleveland along the way.
     
    Byron Buxton has failed to launch thus far, but I’ll conduct the train that says we’ll see it in 2019.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins decided to forego an opportunity to upgrade their starting rotation this offseason. Michael Pineda returns from injury, and Kyle Gibson has rounded out into an above average hurler. The greatest development from the holdovers would be Jose Berrios taking another step forwards. An All Star in 2018, the Puerto Rican was recently tabbed as a dark horse for the AL Cy Young.
     
    MLB.com’s Matt Kelly named the young Twins starter as one of six sleeper candidates for the 2019 AL Cy Young award last week. Coming off a season in which he posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 1.144 WHIP and just a 3.90 FIP, that seems like somewhat of a substantial leap. Turning 25 in the middle of this season though, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Berrios’ best days are still ahead of him. If indeed that is the case, the secondary numbers suggest trends flowing in the right direction as well.
     
    At his worst, Berrios gave up far too many homers and often did so with men on base. Having honed in command year-over-year, he’s also drastically improved his ability to keep the ball in the park. In 2018 the 9.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 were both career bests, and while the 1.2 HR/9 was a step backwards from the 0.9 HR/9 tally in 2017, it was a far cry from the ugly 1.9 HR/9 in his debut season. The ratios are all getting to a pretty solid place, but the percentages are what truly will help him to turn the corner.
     
    Utilizing a devastating curveball, Berrios generated a career best 11.2% swinging strike rate, reaching double-digits for the first time in his career. He also produced a career best 32.8% chase rate and allowed contact just 76.2% of the time (you guessed it, another career best). To thwart walks, he pounded the zone with a 5% jump on first pitch strikes (64.5%) and he looks to be comfortable with a pitch mix that he replicated from 2017.
     
    Something in between where Jose has been each of the past two seasons is likely the crossroads of optimal production. Hard hit rates were better in 2017, and he allowed just 9% of fly balls to leave the yard two years ago. Loud contact isn’t going to help a guy who will always battle against the plane of his fastball, but pitch tunneling, and sequencing can help to make the curveball an even more difficult offering to deal with.
     
    Steamer projections look at 2019 as somewhat of a hiccup for the Twins blossoming ace. Marking him with a 4.26 ERA and just a 2.6 fWAR, he’d be taking a noticeable step backwards from the production that we saw in 2018. As a guy who routinely racked up strikeouts on the farm and turned in a 2.51 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and just 0.6 BB/9 in his final lengthy stay at Triple-A, there’s reason to believe the ability is there.
     
    The blueprint going forward for Berrios remains similar to what it always has been. He’s a guy who works inside (as noted by his hit by pitch marks) and has struggled when giving up free passes or big innings. Although Minnesota has not done much in the form of additional high-level talent on the field this winter, the additions to the organization from a coach and development standpoint have been impressive. Wes Johnson is noted as a pitching savant, and both Jeremy Heffner and Josh Kalk will have a greater impact with another year of continuity. That foundation could prove to be what helps more than a handful of players take the next step.
     
    I don’t know if I’m ready to get on board with Berrios winning a Cy Young just yet, but 2019 could certainly provide a strong foundation as the point looked backed upon that everything just clicked.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason has caused plenty of angst amongst Twins fans. While the team has gotten substantially better, there’s plenty of resources going unused. While the bullpen still seems to be chief among the remaining issues, it can be argued that the rotation leaves some to be desired. When it comes to the overall effectiveness of the starters, a massive wild card exists in the form of Michael Pineda. For the Twins, they need the big man to stand up.
     
    Pineda was signed last offseason to a contract that essentially boiled down to Minnesota monitoring his rehab and having the former Yankees hurler ready to go in 2019. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Pineda then suffered a knee injury late in the year that thwarted any possibility of a big-league debut with the Twins. Now healthy and ready to go, Minnesota may have themselves a difference maker ready to emerge.
     
    Now 30 years old, Pineda was 28 the last time he was on a major league mound. Throwing four seasons in New York, he posted a sub 4.00 ERA just once. What’s worth noting however, is that despite a hiccup in 2017 prior to blowing out his elbow, the peripherals were all plenty intriguing. From 2014-2016 Pineda posted a 3.42 FIP alongside a 9.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. He did cede 1.2 H/9, and that tally ballooned to 1.9 in 2017. Given the bandbox that Yankees Stadium is, there’s reason to believe a move to Target Field could be helpful.
     
    Prior to bowing out of the 2017 season, Pineda got off to a strong start. Through his first 10 outings, he posted a 3.32 ERA and owned a .676 OPS against. It was four (of seven) starts from June on that led to an ERA of 6.14 the rest of the way and turned his overall numbers into a much less pleasing sight. What we can take from this though, is that things were on the right track.
     
    The former top 25 prospect can sling it, and he’s honed that Yankee cutter in to the tune of a 94-mph average over the course of his career. His pix mitch includes a sinker and slider that he pairs with a changeup as his go-to offspeed pitch. Predominantly a fastball and slider combination, the 6’7” righty looks to impose his will on opposing batters, and then force them to flail at a pitch with movement.
     
    There really hasn’t yet been a time in his career that Pineda has consistently lived up to his prospect billing. He’s shown flashes in small bursts, but largely been under a microscope of scrutiny with organizations hoping for a bit more. Able to slot in behind at least Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios, while potentially pitching behind Jake Odorizzi as well, Pineda can focus on being piece of the puzzle instead of the guy. An emergence showing any semblance of one-time projected success would be a huge revelation for Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation.
     
    It's understandable to have concerns about the Twins rotation. Pineda is still a question mark until he proves otherwise, and Martin Perez is a head-scratcher at best. The top three lay a strong foundation though, and if the front office was right by banking on a monitored rehab process, Pineda may end up being the surprise no one saw coming.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Today Ken Rosenthal reported that the Minnesota Twins are signing left-handed pitcher Martin Perez to a one-year deal with a second year option. The former Texas Rangers starter now rounds out Rocco Baldelli's starting rotation. What he doesn't do is address the bullpen needs, or calm any concerns about resources being properly allocated.
     
    Prior to this signing Minnesota was at a payroll of roughly $96.3 million. That number is $30 million below where they checked in to start 2018, and represents the ability to still add a significant amount of talent. With arms like Dallas Keuchel or Gio Gonzalez still on the open market, it's Perez who will take a roster spot on the 40 man.
     
    A former top-100 prospect, Perez debuted with the Rangers back in 2012 and has been with the organization for the entirety of his career. Unfortunately through seven big league seasons he's been neither durable or very good. Having pitched 180 innings just twice, he has't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2013. With a career 5.5 K/9, Perez is a hurler that relies on ok control and the idea that batters will get themselves out.
     
    Looking at how the Twins have executed this offseason, namely with their pitching, this comes across as another head scratcher. Likely taking the spot of Adalberto Mejia in the rotation, Perez doesn't push the needle. Instead of a Keuchel or Gonzalez addition that pushes everyone from the top down, the former Rangers starter simply fills in the last spot and adds to the overall depth.
     
    If there's a positive in this move, it's that the acquisition makes the reality of Fernando Romero starting in the bullpen even more likely. There's no denying that 180 innings from the Twins fireballer would be great, but utilizing him in relief for 2019 could be of the most benefit. The bullpen needs help and Romero's bullets may go a lot further in that role.
     
    You can bet Baldelli will utilize the opener strategy quite often in 2019, and Perez could be subject to that treatment. This front office has prided itself on the ability to both pinpoint and develop pitching. It's not that they don't know more on Perez than this lowly blogger. The problem is that there's both reason and circumstance to push the envelope and at every possible opportunity they've chosen to do less with more.
     
    At some point it would be great to see the Twins make a commitment to their players by acquiring talent with expectations as opposed to being surprised by what comes of a decision. Martin Perez could certainly have a career year in Minnesota, and that'd be a great revelation, but banking on that is a process with many more flaws than we should be seeing right now.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Payroll angst has been at what seems like an all-time high this offseason. Joe Mauer’s contract came off the books, and there’s zero committed dollars for 2020 and beyond. Instead of allocating those funds though, the Twins are hovering around a $100 million payroll and made another “splash” by signing Martin Perez. Local media has suggested the Twins are waiting to get it right, but does that make sense?
     
    Phil Mackey of the recently rebranded Skor North radio tweeted he’s been told directly by someone within the organization that this is a waiting game. Needing to get the “nucleus” of the roster right before adding pieces, the strategy of acquiring filler talent this offseason jives with that notion. Realistically speaking, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are going to be the straw that stirs Minnesota’s drink, and even the next wave of prospects won’t change that reality. Waiting for the perfect scenario seems to have plenty of hurdles, however.
     

     
    There’s no denying that Sano and Buxton have both failed to live up to their prospect projections. Expected to be franchise cornerstones for years to come, neither has solidified that notion yet. Chief among the concerns for new manager Rocco Baldelli, will be jumpstarting and developing both of those guys into the players they’ve been expected to be. If he’s able to accomplish that goal, he’ll have done what former manager Paul Molitor was unable to achieve.
     
    The idea that the spending, supplementation, or bolstering the roster with talent hinges on a set group of players seems like a poor decision, however. First and foremost, baseball is not a sport that’s dictated by even a handful of guys on a 25-man roster. Winning teams accomplish goals by being a stronger sum of their parts and raising the water level of those on the ends of the roster helps to push the bar. On top of that, projecting year-over-year certainties is somewhat of a losing battle.
     
    Recently the Twins sprung up for an 85-win season in 2017 following the disastrous 103 loss campaign a year earlier. Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson pointed out that neither World Series winning Minnesota club was coming off a season in which competitiveness should’ve been the expectation either. On top of that, there’s plenty of opportunity to be had given the current landscape within the division. Minnesota has the opportunity to play two surefire 90 loss clubs in both Detroit and Kansas City. The White Sox are not yet ready to run, and the Indians have taken considerable steps backwards. Jumping at the window present by the AL Central itself should be enticing on the surface.
     
    Oh yeah, and about those White Sox. Chicago is coming off a 2018 in which they lost 100 games and finished 4th in the division. Boasting one of the best farm systems in the sport, they are in the middle of guys yet to pan out (Yoan Moncada and Reynaldo Lopez), those yet to debut (Eloy Jimenez), and those still a ways off (Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert). Despite all of that, they’ve gone out and signed recruiting tools in Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso, while jumping to the front of the line in hopes of landing a game changing Manny Machado. There couldn’t be a blueprint highlight a less established nucleus than what Chicago currently employs, but they’ve chosen to spark winning by seeing what’s coming and supporting it.
     
    At some point, the Twins need to be held accountable. Holding off on spending in previous seasons while battling uncertainty and a less than ideal opportunity cost was defendable. With more than their fair share of assets available, talent on the rise, and the red carpet nearly rolled out in the division, the sensibility this time around is nowhere to be found.
     
    We can continue to wait for a sign, an omen, or an airplane flying a banner. In the meantime, I guess we just wait for the circumstances to be even more ideal.
     
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  24. Ted Schwerzler
    We are now halfway through January and are in the middle of a free agency cycle that is highlighted by two premiere talents. In a sport that suppresses player earnings for nearly a decade, opportunities to sign youthful megastars at the height of their potential is largely uncharted territory. Even with that reality currently sitting before us, players are watching as organizations hand out moderate deals and scrutinize anything that truly would move the needle.
     
    At the current juncture, there’s no less than 50 major league caliber players still awaiting a home for the 2019 season. Multiple teams have yet to sign a player to a big-league deal, and even more are looking at spending thresholds that fall significantly short of anything reflecting actual revenues. We’re still talking about athletes becoming millionaires in this entire scenario, but owners are sitting on wads of cash that have them all starting at sums best described with a “B.”
     
    There’s little reason to deny significant flaws in the current CBA structure. Owners took the MLB Players Association to the woodshed, and that has never been more apparent than the past two winters. You can bet stronger negotiation tactics will be employed during the next round of discussions but coming up with ideas in order to spark improvement is the first step. While we won’t see anything implemented right now today, there seems to be one avenue to create buzz and heighten fan interest.
     
    Looking across the landscape of the three major sports, fans hang onto the opportunity to watch transactions occur at a breakneck pace. Whether it be the MLB trade deadline, NFL free agency, or either of those instances in the NBA, players moving at a fast pace gives fans something to gravitate towards. The success that Major League Baseball sees mid-season could potentially be harnessed over the winter as well.
     
    We can talk a certain threshold of dollars needing to be handed out, and there could even be a mandate put on percentage of revenues being spent. What if the league decided to create a free agency window? By forcing teams to conduct negotiations between a certain time period, you’d allow agents, players, and organizations to all have their cards on the table together. Inciting some sort of bidding war for talent could be a nice by-product of this exercise, and a sense of urgency would have fans involved in the progress their perspective team is making.
     
    In this proposed scenario, one of the largest hurdles would seem to be what to do beyond a presented window of opportunity. Inevitably not every player would find a deal and you can’t simply ask them all to accept MiLB pacts or something of that ilk. Finding an incentive for teams to sign players during the free agency period, while also working in the best interests of players, would seemingly marry all attempted goals together.
     
    At the end of the day, I don’t think there’s any way some drastic changes won’t be taking place. We’ll see multiple propositions as to what they may look like, and eventually different options will come to fruition. For now, we’ll have to continue this waiting game while a significant number of talented players wonder where spring training will take place.
     
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  25. Ted Schwerzler
    With just over a month until the Minnesota Twins embark upon sunny Fort Myers, the projected Opening Day payroll is just under $97 million. To call that a joke is putting it lightly. That number is $30 million under the 2018 mark, and about $45 million under a realistic expectation given market factors. What’s worth noting however, is that spending doesn’t appear to be as cut and dry as it may seem.
     
    To date, it’s fair to call Minnesota’s offseason a mild success. They’ve gotten better from the point in which they ended the 2018 season, and talent with solid upside has been acquired. There’s no denying this club could use another move or two however, and that reality is what holds them back from any sort of commendations yet this winter. It’s in buying more talent that helps Rocco Baldelli be better positioned for a next step in 2019, but the dollar threshold doesn’t look anything close to doable.
     
    Thinking about what the front office could still choose to do, there’s a couple of names that make plenty of sense. Cody Allen screams probability in the bullpen, and a Gio Gonzalez addition would be great for the rotation. That duo likely comes in around $20 million per season though, and still puts the Twins $10 million under where they were previously. Short of signing Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Craig Kimbrel the big fish is not still on the market to raise the overall water level. Dallas Keuchel could command enough to make a seismic shift in the payroll structure, but that may be a move that is more based upon name than performance.
     
    What we’re really seeing here is that short of acquiring the top one to three names on the open market, and avenue to a fair payroll expectation looks murky at best. Minnesota has acquired for free agents this offseason. The club would’ve needed to bring in at least three top tier talents, or something like seven mid-range options to account for the opened cash flow. Allocating dollars to more talent is always a sensible ask, but what seems more problematic is that the market correction on valuations of players simply hasn’t taken shape.
     
    At this stage in the game, we shouldn’t be hearing that one or two teams are debating the validity of Machado or Harper being worth $300 million. Guys are on the market in their early 30’s and are finding one-year pacts below and eight-figure sum. The reality is that baseball gets the most out of talent prior to this portion of a career, and by this time, the market isn’t willing to correct that exploitation.
     
    You can certainly expect a piece from this writer chastising the hometown nine if the payroll is in March where it is now. That number is unacceptable, and opportunity has been left on the table. Even if there’s more potential room for growth executed upon however, it’s hard not to see how organizations would be stretching terms to get towards more realistic compensation numbers.
     
    Across baseball, multiple franchises are worth billions of dollars. At the bottom end of the totem pole (according to this Forbes piece) the Tampa Bay Rays are valued at $900 million. No team has a revenue below $200 million, and only two organizations turned a loss in 2018. What that suggests is those off the field are doing just fine with their investment, while the players responsible for the output are severely underpaid.
     
    We aren’t at a point where the CBA can be rectified, but we also aren’t far off. There’s a storm brewing for the owners, and the MLBPA needs to be vastly more prepared the next time around. For now, it’d be great if the Twins would allocate some of the cash that is currently set to be pocketed, but even from the get-go this winter, their realistic additions would’ve left more to be desired in the hands of those who play the game.
     
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