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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have played more than a handful of Spring Training games and Opening Day is less than a month away. Who will make up the 26-man roster in Milwaukee on April 1?
     
    There’s been a couple of additions since roster projection 1.0 exactly one month ago, and spring performances may wind up influencing some of the roster decisions as well. It appears there will be fans in the stands no matter where you turn on Opening Day, so who will fans of the reigning AL Central division champions be seeing? Here’s the first revision:
     
    Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker
     
    Randy Dobnak gets bumped from the group as the addition of Shoemaker on a one-year deal worth $2 million all but cements his place as the final starter. The former Angels pitcher has been good when healthy, he’s just rarely remained that for significant stretches of time. Minnesota has solid starting depth, even if the ceiling is lowered behind Pineda. This should be a solid group.
     
    Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe
     
    I’m really uncertain what to do with this group. Only six spots seem like certainties, and despite Caleb Thielbar needing to be a seventh, he may miss the start of the season with an injury. Minnesota also seems likely to carry 14 pitchers given the workload differential in adding 102 games this season. That said, I have no idea how they get there. Shaun Anderson is on the 40-man roster already. Thorpe and Dobnak have looked good this spring, but both should remain stretched out to start. Ian Hamilton, Ian Gibault, and Brandon Waddell would all need a spot on the 40-man roster if they were to be included.
     
    Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers
     
    Removing Willians Astudillo here solely from the idea that the options elsewhere seem better suited for the roster. He’s not a true catcher and the top two should be able to split duties evenly.
     
    Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez
     
    No changes here and the only thing that could make some sense would be a true shortstop to spell Andrelton Simmons. Jorge Polanco will likely be asked to play that role at times rather than including someone like J.T. Riddle, who would need a 40-man spot should he make the club.
     
    Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave, Brent Rooker
     
    Talk about a group brimming with options. Kirilloff should be the Opening Day left fielder. The team has suggested Arraez isn’t being groomed to play the outfield, and there’s no Triple-A action for a month. Jake Cave is the holdover fourth outfielder, but he’s a bit redundant as another left-handed bat. Keon Broxton is a non-roster guy that can truly play centerfield and he’s looked very good in the early going. Kyle Garlick is a right-handed hitter with a 40-man spot who’s also looked good, but he’s probably destined more for the corners. If you’re adding another bat, it probably needs to be Brent Rooker. He’s not a centerfielder, but he too is right-handed and looked the part before his injury in 2020.
     
    Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz
     
    No change here
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    In 2021 the Minnesota Twins are going to have a new starting shortstop. Despite being delayed to camp, Andrelton Simmons will assume that role shortly. What happens behind him remains a question, but the Riddle could actually be the solution.
     
    Alright, enough with the puns, sorry about that. Andrelton Simmons is as clear of a defensive upgrade as it gets. Even if Minnesota employed someone other than a below-average Jorge Polanco as short in recent seasons, Simba as he’s known, has won a Platinum Glove. Despite being in on Marcus Semien (who’s also a defensive upgrade), it’s clear prioritizing defense was a goal. Now with Simmons, the Twins have arguably the best defensive left-side of the infield in all of baseball. The man needs days off, though right.
     
    Simmons opted out of 2020 after an injury, and he played in just 103 games the year before that. Even when he’s played in 145-plus, there’s still days he’ll need a break. A year ago, that may have fallen on the shoulders of Ehire Adrianza (as Marwin Gonzalez is not a good defender at short). In 2021 the options are less clear. Do you cloudy the transition for Polanco by moving him there intermittently? What about new utility man Luis Arraez filling in out of position? Right now, that’s where the options cease when it comes to clear Opening Day roster candidates.
     
    Enter J.T. Riddle.
     
    The former Marlin and Pirate is not much to speak of at the plate. He owns a career OPS of just .616 and the minor league track record doesn’t suggest a breakout at age-29. What he can do however, is field. In just under 700 innings at short for the Marlins a few year ago, he was worth 12 DRS. That defensive ability is something only Simmons possesses among the Twins logical candidates. Welcome to your inside track sir.
     
    Whether you assume Alex Kirilloff is the Twins Opening Day left fielder or not (he should be, and his outlook just got better), at worst that makes Arraez a utility player. Adding another outfielder to the bench could be an avenue, and a third catcher has been a preference in recent seasons. Jake Cave could still fit depending on the pitching configuration, and regardless of the flexibility, Willians Astudillo is redundant.
     
    Penciling in Riddle with a Major League roster spot is hardly ideal. There are only 26 openings and there’s better talents. His effectiveness as a true shortstop could present him an edge though. The front office brought in Andrew Romine as a camp option for short with Simmons lagging behind. Maybe Riddle is seen with more of a future than just a ticket to Triple-A St. Paul. Nick Gordon isn’t viewed as a shortstop anymore, and even a healthy Royce Lewis wasn’t going to back up a big-league position. Even the best teams have guys that play a small but significant role, maybe this one is for J.T.
     
    I don’t know that I love it, and I’m obviously not certain it will happen, but I think there’s a pathway to get there and one that makes logical sense.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Just shy of a year ago I was at Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers, Florida. March 12, 2020 to be exact. I’ll never forget that day as the night before basketball shut down with the announcement of Rudy Gobert testing positive for Covid-19. Having just left the freshly roped off back fields at Hammond Stadium, waiting to catch a flight, news hit that Major League Baseball was going on hold.
     
    Fast forward to where we are today and hope springing eternal couldn’t seem more appropriate. Each year around this time fans feel the rejuvenation of the possibility that their team could win a World Series come October. Spring Training may bring meaningless ballgames, but the action being back is more than necessary for even the most casual of baseball fans.
     
    Last year we went through a 60-game blitz that culminated with a World Series inviting fans into the ballpark. During the regular season and most of the Postseason, the only things inhabiting ballparks across the country were cardboard cutouts. Fake crowd noise was pumped into stadiums, and announcers worked games while sitting at empty fields and staring at television monitors.
     
    As Spring Training is now underway in 2021 fans have been invited back into ballparks. Sellouts immediately commenced, and whatever percentage of capacity was allowed to take place has been maxed out. We still have social distancing and mask wearing, that likely won’t change for a while. This season though, there are bodies back in the seats taking in America’s pastime. There schedule is set up for a complete 162-game run, and the nuance of baseball should again be on full display.
     
    Minnesota enters the 2021 season as one of the best teams in baseball, and they’ll have a renewed rivalry in the division thanks to the youth emergence from the Chicago White Sox. A year ago, it was just a joy to have baseball save what was otherwise a very gloomy summer. This year, the sport can be a leader in a return to normalcy and we’ll get closer to that reality as the calendar draws on.
     
    Get out to a ballpark and go Twins!
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    As the Minnesota Twins enter 2021 a new rivalry has emerged. With the Chicago White Sox looking like contenders a season ago, a full 162-game schedule should provide plenty of excitement between the two clubs.
     
    Over the past couple of years Minnesota has been challenged at the top of the AL Central by the Cleveland Indians. They were a good team, with plenty of exciting stars, but unfortunately the fanbase never showed up. Ranking 21st in attendance during the 2019 season, Cleveland’s support system has always seemed relatively nonexistent. Maybe that’s why ownership felt the need to tear things down in the midst of a competitive window, but this ballclub has never seen the vocal support that the LeBron-led Cavs or Cleveland Browns have experienced.
     
    Enter the Chicago White Sox. Yes, their attendance in 2019 was awful as well, ranking 23rd in all of Major League Baseball. However, as the organization has developed its young stars, there’s a vocal fan base in a very large market. The White Sox made the Postseason in 2020 for the first time since 2008. The time before that however, 2005, they swept the Houston Astros en route to a World Series title. This organization has seen success, even if it hasn’t been extremely recent.
     
    Often times I’ve suggested that seeing a competitive club on a yearly basis is my desire as a fan. While winning a World Series is the ultimate goal, the stark reality is that 29 teams fall short every season. If the full 162-game schedule can provide some drama, meaningful October baseball can be played, and excitement be had along the way, I will have enjoyed roughly eight months of the year from a sports perspective. Include a rivalry that sparks debate, discussion, and intensified importance on any number of games throughout the week and you’ve put a cherry on top.
     
    From guys like Barstool’s own White Sox Dave, or Twitter-famous ChiSoxFanMike, the White Sox have a well-represented fanbase. As with any situation there’s some rose-colored glasses type of takes, but it’s oddly refreshing to see banter and interaction each and every time Chicago’s South Side contingent is mentioned in the context of opinion.
     
    It’s foolish to think that an improved White Sox team with another year of youth development will finish behind Cleveland again in 2021. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will battle all year at the top of the AL Central, and with both likely destined for the playoffs, it should provide plenty of must-see moments along the way.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    As teams begin to kick off a more traditional Spring Training with the goal of completing it entirely this season, we’re now looking forward to a full 162-game slate. The Twins return as repeat AL Central Division champions, and they’ll look for a three-peat in 2021.
     
    Shuffling has taken place throughout the Central with Chicago having had a strong offseason, Cleveland selling off, and Kansas City quietly making some noise. Last year I put this projection piece out in February, and then needed to come up with an amended version at the end of July.
     
    Let’s hope for good health and as much baseball as we can handle this time around. Here’s how I have the AL Central going, along with PECOTA projections in parenthesis.
     
    Minnesota Twins 97-63 (90-72)
     
    It’s more than fair to suggest the Twins could’ve taken further steps forward this offseason, however they had the least to improve upon. Piece did depart, but none of them were substantial contributors and the addition of Andrelton Simmons should make a massive impact defensively. This team is going to go as far as a healthy Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton allow them too. It’d be great if Miguel Sano were the Nelson Cruz aging insurance along the way. Expect additions at the deadline, and a stable of prospects are near ready to contribute.
     
    Chicago White Sox 90-72 (82-80)
     
    There’s no denying that the South Siders have closed even more of the gap. That said, I still think this club is in for some regression given the unpredictability of youth. They broke out in a big way during a shortened 2020 campaign that afforded them the luxury of small sample sizes. Thinking back to the 2018 Twins, a similar swoon could happen here. The talent level is too great to drift too far, but they should be considered a runner-up. Postseason expectations are a must however, and they shouldn’t have much problem achieving that.
     
    Kansas City Royals 78-84 (72-90)
     
    While the Royals are not yet there, and they are waiting on some offensive prospects to step up, they did a lot of nice things this winter. The Mike Minor signing was an underrated one, and Carlos Santana should provide a steadying veteran presence for them. I like Brady Singer and Kris Bubic in the rotation and think there’s a different trajectory here than in years past. This isn’t a Kansas City club yet ready to compete, but they’re substantially better than the bottom feeding Tigers and should have more firepower than Cleveland.
     
    Cleveland Indians 77-85 (85-77)
     
    Rather than load up for one last go with a strong rotation and a final year of Francisco Lindor, Cleveland decided to punt on 2021. The rotation is top heavy with Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, but beyond that there’s more question marks with upside than anything. They’ve done a good job developing arms, and I’d expect that to continue, but it still needs to be proven. There isn’t much talent in the field or at the plate, and if they aren’t going to compete it makes little sense to hang onto Jose Ramirez. Assuming he’s dangled at the deadline, they could accelerate the rebuild they’re now destined for.
     
    Detroit Tigers 65-97 (66-96)
     
    A.J. Hinch has a tall task in front of him as this isn’t a club rich with talent akin to the Astros teams he’s used to having led. That said, there’s going to be a handful of prospects that filter into Comerica this year, and Detroit has one of the best systems in the game. I’d expect some of those kids to take their lumps, and even if they do produce, there’s just not enough on the roster to raise the overall water level. That said, this club isn’t far from turning the corner and adding pieces with a focus on competing once again.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    Yesterday the Minnesota Twins inked Matt Shoemaker to a one-year deal worth $2 million. He’ll be the favorite to fill out the starting rotation and likely puts a bow on a strong offseason. Without flash, it’s still exactly what was needed.
     
    When looking at free agency it’s often the big signings or high-ticket players that draw all the fanfare. For a team like the Twins though, expectations have to be viewed through the lens of what is necessary. This isn’t to suggest teams shouldn’t spend money, or give them a pass for not doing so, but expecting good clubs to get exponentially better is a fool’s errand. Minnesota didn’t rock the boat, but they did more than necessary to three-peat as AL Central division winners.
     
    Coming off two seasons with an average winning percentage of .600, the goal for 2021 should be to again make the Postseason and then make noise once you get there. Sure, the futility in the playoffs has been mind-boggling, but it’s ultimately not predictive of any future results. You’re dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, and while added together they look poor, viewed separately as they should be, they don’t indicate much.
     
    The Twins won the division in 2020, just like they did in 2019. It wasn’t on them to go out and make up ground this offseason. They needed to replace a couple of bullpen arms and look to bolster their starting rotation. Short of signing Trevor Bauer, there was never a path for them to have an offseason quite like the Chicago White Sox or San Diego Padres. The former was a third-place team chasing down the hometown nine, and the latter is a club rich in prospects looking to make up ground between themselves and the World Series winners.
     
    Obviously, there is any amount of talent that can be acquired to raise the water level for a 26-man roster. The Padres and White Sox are better positioned for 2021 than they were because of the talent they brought in. Both clubs had a need to make up a gap though. The Dodgers are spending a boatload of cash to run it back, with the one addition of the aforementioned Bauer. That’s a big splash, but one that only impacts a single roster spot.
     
    With pitchers and catchers set to embark upon Fort Myers in the coming days, Minnesota has to be considered the divisional favorite. Then it’s on players like Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver to step up. Should the team fare as expected through the first half, betting on reinforcements being acquired at the deadline is also a good assumption. What it all boils down to is that World Series titles, and even Postseason victories, aren’t achieved in the offseason. The size of a winter splash doesn’t ultimately predict much in the way of October success.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made their big splash last offseason in the form of Josh Donaldson. They targeted a defensive upgrade that was otherwise unnecessary in Andrelton Simmons this time around, and his impact will be felt more on the diamond than it’s gotten credit on paper. Minnesota already was good and should’ve been expected to be so again in 2021. They then raised the water level ever so slightly, and here we are ready to go with a club that again will turn heads.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    With the Super Bowl now in the rearview mirror it is officially baseball season. This is the last week without the Minnesota Twins in action for the next eight months. Before the Spring Training action gets underway however, I’ll take a first stab at how Rocco Baldelli will utilize his 26 roster spots.
     
    The Twins had a very strong offseason, and the front office did a great job once again allowing the market to play into their strategy. Key pieces were brought back, and new faces were added to the mix. Looking to go for a third straight AL Central division title, here is how I see the Twins breaking camp in Fort Myers as things stand now.
     
    Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Randy Dobnak
     
    I think this is pretty set and don’t foresee anyone else threatening too much here. Minnesota could still bring someone in as a non-roster invitee, but Dobnak has earned the opportunity to have first crack. This is an area that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can explore an upgrade during the season, and that could come internally in the form of top prospects Jordan Balazovic or Jhoan Duran. I still like Lewis Thorpe as a dark horse to throw meaningful innings this year, but that remains to be seen.
     
    Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Cody Stashak, Devin Smeltzer
     
    If there’s a spot with change coming this is probably it. The first seven names on this list seem pretty straightforward to me and should make for a solid group. Including Smeltzer means that none of the waiver claims crack the Opening Day roster and that seems relatively far-fetched. Ultimately Smeltzer plays as a long-man, and that could be upgraded with the addition of another relief free agent acquisition. Given the number of names still out there, it’s probably a good bet that this group remains in flux at the back end.
     
    Catchers (3): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers, Willians Astudillo
     
    This season Minnesota may have the best catching tandem in baseball. A resurgence for Mitch Garver should be expected, and Jeffers emerged in a big way during the 2020 season. Both should expect to get a ton of playing time, and that lends the roster towards inclusion of Willians Astudillo. Tortuga is still more gimmick than anything to me, and he shouldn’t see time behind the plate, but Baldelli is afforded flexibility by having him in the big leagues.
     
    Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez
     
    There shouldn’t be much surprise here as all of these guys are starters and going to get regular time. Don’t worry that Luis Arraez is now slated to come off the bench, he’ll still see north of 400 at bats this season. Travis Blankenhorn could be considered here, but I’d think Minnesota prefers Astudillo purely from a roster construction standpoint. Nick Gordon should be close to a now or never crossroads too, but I don’t see it happening on Opening Day.
     
    Outfielders (4): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brent Rooker, Jake Cave
     
    Much to the chagrin of Twins fans everywhere, I don’t think we see Alex Kirilloff out of the gate. Minnesota will likely play the service time game, while Cave and Rooker are more than capable in left field. I don’t think the uber-prospect stays down for long, but out of the gate this makes a good deal of sense.
     
    Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz
     
    He's back, that settles it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Today marked the unveiling of PECOTA’s standings projection from Baseball Prospectus. For the Minnesota Twins, things are looking great as the system sees 91 wins and a third straight AL Central division title. There are definitely some noteworthy revelations, however.
     
    Of course, as Twins fans, the hometown club appearing atop the division once again is the most exciting development. 91 wins seems conservative in a division that should really be a two-team race, but PECOTA doesn’t see the breakdown working quite like that. Despite all of the fanfare, the projection system has the Chicago White Sox finishing third in the division and winning just 83 games.
     
    From my vantage point, the White Sox coming in anywhere lower than second seems like quite the shock. Cleveland dealt away Francisco Lindor, should do the same with Jose Ramirez, and despite a stellar pitching staff, have little else to hang their hats on. The White Sox certainly could be primed for some regression though. They burst onto the scene a year ago, but the season was just a 60-game sample size. Looking back to the 2017 Twins, there was a Postseason appearance prior to a backwards slide that then set them up for the current run.
     
    Trying to make some sense of what PECOTA may be seeing, I looked at the added WAR for Minnesota and Chicago through the lens of ZiPS from Fangraphs. Chicago has added just 6.5 fWAR while the Twins tacked on a tally of 7.2 fWAR. That’s largely a reflection of where both clubs added. The White Sox needed help in the outfield but responded with just Adam Eaton and Adam Engel. Lance Lynn is a solid addition if he keeps down the path of recent success, but even as good as Liam Hendriks is, Alex Colome was already stellar a year ago and a single reliever has just minimal impact. Both Nelson Cruz and Andrelton Simmons are seen as substantial additions for Minnesota, while J.A. Happ should be considered a steadying presence.
     
    Even without the distaste for Chicago clouding my view, I still find it hard to believe that club will finish below Cleveland. I’ve written in this space that I’d hardly be shocked if the Royals end up third in the division, and for now I’m going to stick to that. Projection systems or otherwise, you can bet the South Side fanbase won’t take kindly to what will be viewed as disrespect.
     
    One other area of note within PECOTA is the projection for the NL Central. That division is expected to be a dumpster fire, and the Milwaukee Brewers are slated to win it with just 88 wins. It’s worth making a note of considering the Central will serve as the interleague foe for Minnesota in 2021. Despite the regionalized schedule a year ago, the Twins face the same grouping of opponents in the National League. Being able to face off against a division that’s largely not trying should only provide additional opportunity to add tallies in the win column.
     
    We’ll have to take a look back on these standings come October when the dust settles. Right now, though, another Twins division title and some shade towards the South Side is more than good with me.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    And there was much rejoicing…Remember when the Chicago White Sox won the AL Central back in December 2020? Unfortunately for them, the Minnesota Twins have a few tricks still up their sleeve. Now days before Spring Training is set to commence, the reigning champs are positioned for a repeat.
     
    After signing Nelson Cruz and Alex Colome to deals for the upcoming season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have all but put a bow on their winter spending. I’d still think a pact with Tyler Clippard or a reliever in the $2 million range could make sense, as does a trade or non-roster invite for some starting pitching. No matter what happens from here on out though, the Fightin’ Baldelli’s are ready to go.
     
    Continuing to view this organization through the lens of Terry Ryan and Bill Smith regimes has been a fool’s errand for some time now. It’s been the blueprint of Falvey and Levine to be calculated, risk averse, and strike where opportunity is deemed to match projectability.
     
    Andrelton Simmons is not someone’s leftovers, and Josh Donaldson allowed Minnesota a new high-water mark in free agent history. Colome comes in above the bottom of the relief market, and both Happ and Cruz look like team-friendly deals in the landscape of their peers.
     
    The Twins didn’t go out and sign George Springer or Trevor Bauer this offseason, but they didn’t need to. This is already a club that had all of the pieces for a deep run, and reality suggests they just need to get out of their own way. Anything can happen in a short series, which is why winning a World Series in incredibly tough. That said, you should continue to expect Postseason appearances often into the foreseeable future.
     
    Today it was announced that 28% of Hammond Stadium will host fans for Spring Training, the players are just days from arriving, and we’re soon going to hear “play ball!” Minnesota is ready to make noise in the American League, and there isn’t a team in the National League that should be licking their chops come October either.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    Recently the Minnesota Twins signed veteran starting pitcher J.A. Happ to bolster their rotation. He’d slot in as the 4th starter with where things stand currently, and Randy Dobnak would be the clubhouse favorite to round out the group. It remains to be seen whether or not another move is coming, but there’s a dark horse to eat someone’s lunch.
     
    At the risk of sounding too punny, maybe he’s a dark kangaroo. Lewis Thorpe recently turned 25-years-old and is a former top-100 prospect. He couldn’t be further from that stature right now, but talent shouldn’t be the question. After battling back from Tommy John surgery, and then an extended bout of pneumonia, he put together impressive seasons on the farm. The past two years have been anything but, however he’s worth believing in under one key condition.
     
    I liked Thorpe as a potential contributor to the big-league club when 2020 Spring Training kicked off. He was coming off a 4.76 ERA in just shy of 100 Triple-A innings, but it was largely reflective of the home run ball and his 11.1 K/9 paired with a 2.3 BB/9 was still plenty enticing. Then Florida happened.
     
    No, for Thorpe, it wasn’t the Covid-19 related shutdown. Without divulging too many specifics or risking secondary information, what is publicly known is that he took an extended leave of absence from the team. His parents flew in from Australia and he needed to undergo a mental reset. Ultimately, he didn’t appear in a Major League game until July 26 and contributed just 16.1 innings for the Twins. His 6.06 ERA was ugly and giving up a homer in roughly 25-percent of his innings pitched was not going to play. Again though, the stuff has always been there.
     
    Observing the offseason without having directly communicated with Thorpe, things appear to be trending in a different direction. The Twitter account has been dormant since his birthday in 2020, and his workouts have been shared on different forms of social media. What was at least an erratic presence a year ago has once again subdued as was the case previously.
     
    Whether by his own doing, or a helping hand from the organization, if Thorpe has recalibrated himself, he can certainly be a difference maker on the bump. I was uncertain as to his place within the organization during periods of roster trimming, and there were times that his inclusion in a trade may have even made sense. The pitcher that forced his way into the big leagues in 2019 is a force to be reckoned with however, and Rocco Baldelli can make use of that.
     
    Physically we saw Thorpe’s velocity diminish in 2020. He posted just an average of 90 mph on his fastball. It’s never that he’s been a hard thrower but losing nearly 2 mph at such a young age wasn’t a great development. It was clear that the lack of carry made a difference last season, and Wes Johnson unlocking the tank would be a great step forward for the Southpaw. The Twins ratcheted up his slider usage last season, and that trend could continue for 2021. Looking to regain the whiff and chase rates from 2019 form, tinkering will certainly be valuable as more data is collected.
     
    There’s not reason to believe an ace is in the making here, but right now it’s not Dobnak or bust when it comes to the back end of the Twins rotation. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic may force themselves in eventually, but don’t count out the best version of Thorpe to make noise before the dust settles.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Let’s get this out of the way from the jump, I’m by no means an expert. I, like many of you, remember picking up packs of cards at the local department store as a kid. The hobby has evolved a ton since then, and having gotten back in full force during 2017, I have often shared my passion on Twitter. Now, it’s time to provide an outlet for knowledge.
     
    A couple of days ago I put out a tweet asking if it would be helpful to answer questions about all thing’s baseball cards. The response was overwhelmingly positive and given the amount of direct messages or inquiries I receive, I thought this may be a fun avenue to share my passion for the hobby and connect with fellow Twins baseball fans in the process.
     

     
    Maybe you want to know what products to start with, how to value your cards, if it’s all a huge money pit, or if grading pieces of cardboard is really a worthwhile venture. No matter what your interest level, or experience in the market, there should be good information and questions both shared and asked.
     
    I’m hardly a savant, and I have plenty of things I’m sill learning. That said, I do have a firm grasp on the way in which I’ve approached my collection and have a good handle on my focus going forward. So, here’s the particulars:
     
    When: Wednesday February 3, 2021
    Where: Twitter Live @tlschwerz
    Time: 8:30 pm central time
     
    Whether you are planning to participate with questions through Twitter Live, or simply tune in for new information, there should be something for everyone. The video will also be recorded on Twitter, and then uploaded to this space should you miss the discussion while it’s taking place. Hope to see you there!
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Earlier this offseason the Minnesota Twins started to reconstruct their bullpen. Losing Trevor May was always going to be a big blow, and there hasn’t been much in the form of names yet, but it’s a process the front office has earned trust in.
     
    A pair of big-name free agents with Minnesota ties have already come off the board but deals for either Liam Hendriks or Brad Hand always seemed far-fetched for the Twins. It’s not that they don’t have the money to spend, or need in relief, but nothing about either of those players fits the process of what this organization has done of late. Hendriks got $54 million from the White Sox over three years, while Hand got $10.5 million from the Washington Nationals. The last time Minnesota paid big on a reliever was Addison Reed, and it went up in smoke.
     
    It would be silly to suggest that every reliever be viewed through the same lens as the failed Reed deal, but more realistically there’s the reality of what Minnesota has done with less. Look at some of the names from recent seasons, and the ERA’s posted by players on deals all at $2.75 million or less. It’s not that the Twins purposely set out to be bargain shoppers, but instead identify outliers very well and get the most out of castoffs from elsewhere.
     

     
    This season Ian Gibault and Brandon Waddell were both claimed off of waivers at the end of October. They each claim a current 40-man spot and feature a slider. It’s a pitch that Wes Johnson and the coaching staff has targeted for some time, and it’s sensible to believe both are currently penciled into the bullpen. Hansel Robles is the lone larger expense thus far, and the former Angels closer was inked to a one-year deal paying him just $2 million. There’s probably at least one more spot open, and you can bet that Minnesota has a type rather than a name in mind.
     
    From my vantage point Trevor Rosenthal looks like the best option remaining, and I loved the fit last year as he returned from injury. He’s going to come with a price tag near the upper levels of single digits however, so that may not be the way they go. There should be a solid grouping of guys like Tyler Clippard and Alex Colome left at the end however, and those pacts should fall within the same range as the Colome deal.
     
    Dating back to 2015 Major League Baseball has shifted a pitching philosophy to a construction of an elite bullpen. How teams get there or create that though, are all made differently. The reality is that often times the mega deals for relievers go up in smoke (hello Wade Davis), and understanding how to best utilize what’s in front of you is the easiest path to success. There’s no denying that a group including Hand or Hendriks has a safer floor on paper, but it all comes down to execution.
     
    On their own the Twins organization has turned Tyler Duffey into one of the best relievers in baseball. Taylor Rogers has looked the part of a lock down piece, and it was his recent seasons in the pen that got Trevor May paid. Edwar Colina could join this group, and Jorge Alcala has already flashed that promise. Sure, Minnesota hasn’t made any big splashes for their bullpen, but it’s probably more about what’s going on behind the scenes and the execution of who the tab, rather than the exciting names, that get the job done.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    This afternoon the Minnesota Twins made their first big splash of the winter in signing former Yankees starter J.A. Happ. He’s nothing flashy by any means, but the $8 million pact will move the salary needle.
     
    Here’s the deal with Happ, he was passable in 2020 and his Baseball Savant metrics paint a prettier picture than a 4.57 FIP can (even with a 3.47 ERA). He was victimized by the longball at Yankee Stadium more often than he has been previously in his career, but he’s just a modest strikeout pitcher. Ultimately, he takes the place of Rich Hill on the 2021 Twins club and there’s nothing wrong with that.
     

     
    If Wes Johnson can utilize Happ as a 5th starter that eats innings and keeps the offense within striking distance, he’ll make turns all season long. If he posts a 5.00+ FIP a la 2019 he could be a candidate to be bumped when Randy Dobnak or one of the other prospects force their way into the picture. It’s not glamorous, but it doesn’t preclude them from making any other moves.
     
    Minnesota still needs a better arm in the rotation, and I have made the point since the beginning of winter that a trade seemed likely for a rotation arm. With Happ in the fold, I’m more confident than ever it will happen. Assuming Nelson Cruz is eventually brought back as the team’s designated hitter, plopping down $12 million or so on Jake Odorizzi becomes less feasible. A controllable starter still in arbitration can be had for less, and the prospect capital is where the spend comes.
     
    I don’t think Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will fill out their bench solely with internal options, and at least one other relief arm still needs to be acquired. By allowed something like $14 million after a Cruz deal, there’s enough left on the bone to make a handful of different directions work.
     
    Right now, just one of the four open spots on the 40-man roster has been utilized, and there could be more opened up with a player in that group sent as part of any package. There’s less than a month until Spring Training is supposed to kick off, and I told you it would be busy.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    As things stand right now the Minnesota Twins have what can be considered an incomplete 26-man roster. There’s work yet to be done, as there is for most teams in baseball, and the front office may find favor in one-year agreements for 2021.
     
    The reality right now is that teams are using the lack of traditional revenues as reasons to spend less for the 2021 Major League Baseball season. On top of that, there’s uncertainty regarding the 2022 season due to an expiring CBA and the previous history between the league and Players Association. While the Twins may see reduced payroll as a way forward in terms of financial flexibility, one-year deals may be an outlier allowing them to still maximize a competitive window.
     
    It’s a pretty hard sell for the Pohlad’s to suggest they are committed to winning while instructing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to take their foot off the gas in the midst of developmental emergence. This organization signed their biggest free agent in history just last offseason, and not pairing him with more talent as the home-grown group has emerged would be a head-scratcher at best. While it wouldn’t necessarily reduce the bill for 2021, removing future monetary commitment is a practice that makes some sense this time around.
     
    Think back to 2018 for a moment. Minnesota made a splash with Spring Training already underway. In a less than ideal market for both players, the secured the services of Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. Both players came in a bit disgruntled at the process they witnessed over the winter, and their output left plenty to be desired. At that time, the suggestion of hired hitman brought forth the discussion as to whether chemistry was ever truly able to be established. With a different set of parameters this time around, a similar plan could be truly beneficial.
     
    Thus far the only deal of consequence for Minnesota has been the acquisition of former Angels closer Hansel Robles on a one-year deal. Internally, he joins Michael Pineda as a free agent following the 2021 season. There’s a sunk cost already with Josh Donaldson, and then much of the Twins roster is on team-friendly extensions, or just into the arbitration process. In short, there’s not much of a massive monetary leap year over year from what’s already committed to.
     
    Enter the onslaught of one-year deals. Kris Bryant for $18 million, yep, sure. Trevor Story at the same price, why not. How about Sonny Gray for just over $10 million, or Jon Gray coming in just under $6 million. The reality is that while all of those players are substantially more costly than a prospect at the league minimum, the future financial fear is off the table. You could add Nelson Cruz and his $16 million ask to this group as well. The point isn’t that the money is inconsequential, but that you’d be maximizing your opportunity while still having flexibility in the seasons ahead.
     
    For years Major League organizations have seen record growth and financial dividends. 2020 provided an unprecedented halt to those trends, but the reality for the vast majority of the league is that a profit was still turned. Having the ability to regain that opportunity in the near future remains a priority for ownership, and this would give them a clear vision to see that come to fruition.
     
    Players in the final year of contracts, and especially those with hefty price tags, should not require a ransom be paid in exchange for their services. The Rockies Story is an elite talent, but plenty of Minnesota’s system should stay intact. Bryant would seemingly have even less of a required package, and the same could be said about Colorado’s Gray. I don’t know how Falvey and Levine will navigate these waters when they finally dip their oars in, but this seems like a plausible path forward.
     
    In a traditional cycle I’d be less interested in a team full of short-term reinforcements. If it means that talent is bolstered and payroll flexibility is still to be achieved, this could be a blueprint that satisfies all needs.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    Coincidentally I am writing this on the exact same date I suggested a similar result last year. The Minnesota Twins have not effectively developed a starting pitcher in quite some time, and with Jose Berrios being the best thing to happen in that period, locking him up long term makes some sense.
     
    Last year the suggestion came on the heels of extensions for the Phillies Aaron Nola and Yankees Luis Severino. Those were both four-year extensions and paid $45 and $40 million apiece respectively. Going into 2021 Berrios is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. For 2021 he’ll pitch for $5.6 million, just over a $1.5 million increase from his 2020 salary. With a final year of arbitration eligibility in 2022, he should see a number get very near the $10 million mark.
     
    Coming off somewhat of a down season, Berrios posted a 4.00 ERA for the first time in his career. It was just a 12-game sample size and the 5.92 ERA through his first five turns really did him in. From that point he posted a 2.79 ERA across 38.2 IP and allowed opposing batters just a .598 OPS the final seven times he took the mound.
     
    Over the past few seasons velocity has been a chief concern regarding Berrios’ output. Having focused on an offseason training regimen that builds endurance to withstand the rigors of a full season, Minnesota had keyed in on their Puerto Rican starter being able to avoid his August and September swoon. We never got to see that in action during 2020 due to the truncated season, but the 9.7 K/9 was a career high, and a 94.9 mph average fastball velocity also topped the charts.
     
    Jose is still just 26 years old and will turn 27 shortly after the 2021 campaign gets underway. He should just now be entering his prime, and looking for him to take another step forward remains a key focus for the Twins. If that should happen, he could find himself among the Cy Young conversation for the first time in his career, and knocking on the door of a big payday, that’s hardly a bad resume builder.
     
    Minnesota has recently locked up Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sano. Although there’s been suggestion of a slightly decreased payroll, future cost certainty is always of importance to organizations, and Berrios provides a very compelling opportunity. Both Kepler and Polanco took what appear to be team friendly deals. The Twins had to rebuild some favor with Jose and did so in the form of a $500k incentive this offseason. Maybe there’s a middle ground where the two sides can hammer out something more substantial.
     
    Even if Jose Berrios never develops into a bonafide ace for the Twins, pitchers of his caliber don’t come around too often, and he’s going to get paid handsomely on the open market. If there’s a way for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to keep him around long time, exploring that option this offseason makes a good deal of sense.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    After the Minnesota Twins signed veteran reliever Hansel Robles to a Major League deal this offseason, their 40-man roster was down to just four openings. Needing significant reinforcements still, it’s a good bet that addition by subtraction could be coming.
     
    By my estimation Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have no less than players yet to acquire, but a more comfortable reality is probably in the ballpark of six. With that in mind, a shortage on 40-man spots becomes a reality, and swinging a deal including a player from that group makes some sense.
     
    As things stand today, with Minnesota having made virtually no moves of any real substance, I’d think they need no less than two infield/utility types, another relief arm, and at least one starting pitcher. You can push the argument for a second starting arm, as well as another reliever, and the designated hitter vacancy still must be filled. That’s anywhere from four to seven fresh faces.
     
    So, what happens next?
     
    There’s been plenty of talk regarding the Twins making a move for a shortstop. In that scenario Jorge Polanco can either become a utility option, or he assumes the role of starting second basemen and Luis Arraez goes into flux. I like Arraez moving around a bit more, though he’s also been noted as a trade chip. Regardless of how it shakes out, there’s two 40-man players currently waiting on standby.
     
    When looking at the arms, it’s hard to see many that won’t fit. Both Ian Gibaut and Brandon Waddell we’re claimed off waivers and are penciled onto the big-league roster as of now. It’s fair to believe one of them could be upgraded, but neither should be looked at as a trade chip. Both top pitching prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are on the 40-man, so if either are swapped for a veteran asset, that’s one way to create a net-zero addition.
     
    There’s little incentive to outright LaMonte Wade and Gilberto Celestino has had plenty of positive talk the past few months among outfielders. Willians Astudillo isn’t really a catcher despite being included in that grouping, but Ben Rortvedt may not be an ideal leap from Double-A being more of a defense only asset at this point. If there’s a position player not expected to be on the Major League roster that gets included in a trade, I think it’s former first round draft pick Nick Gordon.
     
    Over the course of his pro career Gordon has followed a pretty consistent path in that he’s succeeded the second time through a level. He’s no longer much for prospect status, and he’s not a shortstop anymore either. Gordon won’t bump either Arraez or Polanco off second base, and I don’t know that his bat does enough to be the utility guy. I believe there’s a legitimate big-league player here but have contended for a while it will come in a different organization. Now may be the time.
     
    When the dust settles, I think the most likely position Minnesota trades for is starting pitching. Jake Odorizzi would be a good addition, but they aren’t getting Trevor Bauer and everyone else has their own warts to consider. Plucking from another organization and swapping prospect capital looks like a pretty good fit.
     
    I’d be surprised if we saw just a straightforward addition of four new players and throwing a trade in allows a good opportunity to tweak the 40-man openings.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    We’re about to close the book on one of the craziest years in my lifetime. At 30 years old, I’ve hardly seen as much as the next person, but to say this calendar was filled with unprecedented events would be putting it lightly. Through it all though, we had baseball, and that was a distraction I know that I needed.
     
    I remember many months ago now, waking up from a nap and looking at my phone. There was an alert from ESPN noting that Kobe Bryant had died in a helicopter accident. As I processed that, it didn’t hit me as to what the magnitude I’d feel from that event would be. Kobe was a cultural icon, more than just a basketball player, and despite being a Jordan guy he was an athlete I respected. From there, things got worse.
     
    I’ll never forget sitting in Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers, Florida on March 13. The night before Rudy Gobert had tested positive for Coronavirus and the NBA effectively closed its doors. Covering the Twins Spring Training, things seemed ominous that morning as teams had already gone to distancing fans from players with roped off areas. By noon, Major League Baseball had put a halt on all operations. I hopped a flight and headed home.
     
    Since that day, I have not returned to the office for my day job. We’ve dealt with closings of restaurants, public spaces, wearing masks, and plenty of other new versions of normal. Minneapolis experienced extreme racial unrest as the city turned into a warzone. There’s been political and social unrest, and countless other prominent figures that have now left us. For a brief four-month period though, there was baseball.
     
    Leading up to the regular season we watched as the commissioner and ownership groups publicly tore down their players in an effort to squeeze profits through what would be a different year. There was uncertainty as to whether a season would be played at all and writing about the sport took a different turn. There was no minor league action to cover, and in months there typically would have been action, an ability to get creative was necessary.
     
    As the dust settled though, we had the resumption of a game. Teams were diligent in their efforts to avoid Covid-19 outbreaks, the play on the field checked in at a high level, and the Los Angeles Dodgers won a World Series. Back in early summer, none of that seemed remotely possible.
     
    More than any other year, I needed this out. I lost my grandpa to cancer in August, and the day following his funeral my 59-year-old father died in a car accident. I’ve spent more time in a cemetery over the past three months than I have during the entire duration of my life. I know that my challenges in 2020 are not alone, and that this year has been trying on so many. Financial distress, learning to cope with new working situations, understanding how to handle a certain level of social isolation, the totality of it all is not lost on anyone.
     
    At the end of the day though, it was this, a child’s game, that provided a reprieve. We’ll have baseball again, the world will heal, and we can all be better and stronger people for what we have overcome. It will forever be a passion to break down the effectiveness of Jorge Polanco at shortstop, or whether Jose Berrios will round into a bonafide ace. Even if you take away that type of consumption though, the purity of a game, the crack of the bat, and the smell of fresh cut grass will always be an inviting escape.
     
    Thank you for venturing on this journey with me, and I look forward to a more consistent level of normalcy in the months ahead. Below you’ll also find some of my favorite pieces from this season.
    Women in Baseball Series
    Kobe Was So Much More than Basketball
    Byron Buxton's Next Great Act
    Art Proving Unexpected Outlet to Fill the Baseball Void
    What's Happening at the Alternate Site?

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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Update: It appears that the Padres will be also landing Yu Darvish from the Cubs. While that takes a target away from the Twins, they have less competition on the Reds front. Arms like Joe Musgrove and Jon Gray also remain enticing.
     
    Late on Sunday night the market for starting pitching pursuits took a drastic change. After the Tampa Bay Rays had announced they’d make Blake Snell available, the San Diego Padres decided to cap off their Christmas weekend with a blockbuster trade. This provides a blueprint for the Minnesota Twins, and also removes some potential competition.
     
    Thus far during the offseason things have been quit from the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine camp. Minnesota has made a few smaller moves on the reliever front, but they have not addressed their rotation or lineup. For what seems like weeks we’ve now heard about the Twins being a team potential waiting in the weeds and ready to strike. One big name discussed has been that of Marcus Semien, but it remains true that starting pitching is a must.
     
    You can probably bet on veteran Rich Hill not being a guy brought back for 2021, and while Jake Odorizzi looks like one of the best arms not named Trevor Bauer, he will have some options. For Minnesota, sustainability could be the key and finding a trade partner with an arm having some team control could be as enticing as anything.
     
    Although it’s not known to what extent Minnesota may have been intrigued by Snell, the reality is he’s a good pitcher and was available. At the very least that made the two organizations a match. Following that logic, the Cubs and Yu Darvish as well as the Reds and their arms Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray could all be fits. Darvish comes with the hefty price tag, while both Gray and Castillo are more affordable options that should command a premium in prospect capital.
     
    It’s fine to still call this relatively early in the offseason, but the reality is that we’re over the halfway point. Despite the fact that Rob Manfred still hasn’t solidified the 2021 Major League Baseball schedule and we still have no idea what the exact set of rules are going to be, time is not waiting, and Spring Training will soon be around the corner. Minnesota’s front office hasn’t been afraid of being a last-minute suitor, but getting guys acclimate could hold some weight given how the Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison moves ultimately worked out.
     
    When the Padres decided to spring for Snell with a package centered around their second-best pitching prospect, they effectively took themselves out of any discussion regarding another deal. The money is still there for them to target Trevor Bauer, but they don’t seem likely to move Mackenzie Gore or C.J. Abrams, so swapping for another top arm would be difficult. This benefits the Twins as it’s one less club vying for the same prizes.
     
    Given the organization he played for it was probably a near-guarantee that Snell would be moved. I think Chicago still flips Darvish, but Jed Hoyer will want to get his first big move right. Castillo and Gray don’t necessarily need to be shipped out, but Cincinnati appears intent on tearing it down after a one-year run at going for it. Asking Minnesota to be engaged on all of those fronts is hardly a leap.
     
    It’s not yet clear where the Twins will turn, but I’d bet a decent amount that they have plenty of irons in the fire, and it’s clear there’s a decent amount of smoke. Having a better bargaining position than they did yesterday, and also a representative idea of a framework, Falvey and Levine have more clarity now than they may have a few days ago.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the past couple of weeks, it has been rumored that the Twins are acting as a shark circling blood in the water. Waiting for an opportunity to make a big move like they did last offseason, it’s been anyone’s guess as to what that may be. Today it was reported that the move could come up the middle.
     
    Trevor Bauer is the premier free agent this winter, but shortstop talent is aplenty as well. Andrelton Simmons is a perennial Gold Glove type, while both Didi Gregorious and Marcus Semien bring a more balanced offering in a stopgap type situation. Ken Rosenthal reported today that Minnesota is considering moving Luis Arraez and shifting Jorge Polanco to second base. The question then becomes, who plays short?
     
    Arraez broke onto the scene in 2019 and immediately became a fan favorite that looked the part of a Tony Gwynn clone. With great command of the zone and an innate ability to make strong contact, multiple batting titles were projected for his future. Dealing with a slow start in 2020, and lingering knee issues, he finished the year off fine. It’s probably fair to describe him as virtually what we see being who he is. There’s going to be a high average, he won’t strike out, and he’s passable at best on defense. On its own, that works fine for Minnesota.
     
    The problem here is that Jorge Polanco is miscast as a shortstop. His arm strength is questionable, and while improved in 2020, his range is suspect. That’s easier to overlook when the power production is what it was in 2019, but he dealt with a nagging ankle issue last season and just underwent another surgery to correct it. There was some talk he could take over as Minnesota’s replacement for Marwin Gonzalez, but you’d probably be sacrificing lineup prowess in that scenario. Moving him to second base seems like a much more fluid fit.
     
    So, what happens at short? Royce Lewis is obviously seen as the heir, but there’s plenty of warts to dissect there. His 2019 was not good, and despite glowing reports from the CHS Field alternate site last season, 2020 featured no real game action. A handful of national names continue to suggest he’s not a fit at short long term, and a spot in centerfield makes more sense. That alone isn’t enough to bump him off the position now, but it might be worthy to consider him less than untouchable.
     
    At the current juncture two of the game’s best shortstops are on the trade market. Cleveland is going to move Francisco Lindor this offseason, and the Colorado Rockies should be sending Trevor Story out. Neither are under team control past 2022 and as always you have the Coors effect in play (.760 OPS away .994 OPS home) for Story. Both players are going to command an absolute premium and depending on what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are willing to give up, the hope would likely be an extension works out following a swap.
     
    Despite lost revenues in 2020, the Minnesota Twins can’t afford to wait out their next move. The farm system has some very good top prospects, and the depth is also pretty solid. It’s this core however that the front office has been fine tuning, and the window to go all in is the immediate future. With Josh Donaldson having three years left on his mega deal, pairing him and the homegrown core should be of the utmost importance. What impact Royce Lewis or Jordan Balazovic have as key pieces two or three years from now could be the start of an entirely new competitive cycle.
     
    This front office can’t go all in and throw care to the wind, but they’ve also never shown a reason to believe that’s how they would operate. Donaldson seemed like a great fit for Minnesota all along last winter, and the Twins picked their spot to get the deal done. Nothing may be imminent on a big splash front right now, but the makings of smoke seem to be billowing and there’s plenty of reason to fan for some flame.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Today Maury Brown put an article out at Forbes that illustrated some of the economic impact across baseball in relation to a pandemic shortened 2020 season. While the league as a whole spent roughly $2.5B less on salaries, the per game adjustments note a step forward. The Twins can and need to afford a similar path in the year ahead.
     
    In 2019 $2,472,194,292 more dollars were spent on payrolls across baseball. Obviously, there were also 102 more games played that season. Adjusting the calendar to be in line with what we experienced during 2020 however, a 12% increase in player salaries would’ve been realized.
     
    On the Twins front, Minnesota paid out $52,627,942 in salaries during the 2020 season. That was good enough for 19th in baseball. They paid a total of $125,205,980 in 2019, and that comes out to an adjusted amount of $46,372,585. It makes sense that the Pohlad family would push more finances into roster construction during an open window and following a length period of cost savings, but it’s glad to see that come to fruition.
     
    After going big on Josh Donaldson to the tune of a four-year deal worth at least $100 million, Minnesota again finds themselves in a position to spend. Although payroll positioning isn’t indicative of talent of future finish (just ask the Tampa Bay Rays), stockpiling more assets is hardly a bad practice. Coming off a second straight AL Central division title and looking to supplement an already strong core around a star like Donaldson, another step up makes plenty of sense.
     
    Despite the down revenues for the league as a whole in 2020, the reality is that Scott Boras’ assessment is likely factual. Teams didn’t actually lose money as much as they simply didn’t take in typical profits. Coming off years of record growth financially however, that should hardly be the sole motivator, and especially not for organizations in the midst of prime competitive windows.
     
    Minnesota has a respectable farm system and one that has both established depth while harboring some very high projected prospects at the top. Even Royce Lewis though shouldn’t be considered a cornerstone on a Major League team for the next one or two seasons. That’s a point in which most of the Twins core is looking into their 30’s while the big contract for Donaldson is a year from lapsing. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can’t throw caution to the wind, but they’ve built a sustained winner, and now is time to continue adding pieces.
     
    There have been rumblings about what the Twins plan to do at the shortstop position, and there’s no doubt they have holes in the starting rotation as it would currently be constructed. Minnesota is never going to be able to compete with big market clubs purely from an enticement factor but saving dollars doesn’t make much sense given the state of the competitive opportunity and the challenge Chicago will certainly present.
     
    It’s good to see that even in a year with decreased revenues and unprecedented hurdles the Twins stepped up on the bottom line. Now they need to continue to weather the storm and do it again for 2021.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    This offseason was always going to be incredibly weird. Coming off a pandemic shortened season, with no fans, and an unprecedented amount of uncertainty still ahead, how teams would tackle preparations for 2021 is a mystery. The Twins are good though, and despite a few holes they want to get better. What if they go all in?
     
    This morning at ESPN Jeff Passan penned a piece regarding some rumblings he’s heard around the league. One of them was a note on the Minnesota Twins circling like a shark in the water. Executives had apparently suggested that Minnesota is “lurking” and appears “ready to strike with a big move as they did last season.” That big move alluded to was the signing of Josh Donaldson to a $100 million deal. How could something like that be replicated?
     
    On the free agent market there’s only a couple of splashes that would fall into that category in and of themselves. Signing Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto would push dollar signs into that realm. Bauer is arguably the most natural fit of the group, and his next deal could be the most interesting. He’s previously said he’d like to by an assassin for hire and string together lucrative one-year deals. Agent Rachel Luba has commented that they’re open to whatever the best fit is. Bauer makes sense in Minnesota, but I’d imagine there’s other more desirable markets.
     
    Looking at the latter two options, the Twins would be in a bit of a weird spot even though both are clear upgrades. Springer plays corner outfield, and despite the departure of Eddie Rosario, the assumption is that top prospect Alex Kirilloff will take over in short order. Mitch Garver had a down and injury plagued year in 2020, but Ryan Jeffers looked the part of a starting quality option. Realmuto would push both to the bench, although he could make the DH spot less of a pressing Nelson Cruz matter.
     
    I don’t think anything else on the free agency front would qualify as Donaldson-esque. Maybe signing Didi Gregorious, Marcus Semien, or Andrelton Simmons to be the starting shortstop creates ripples, but none of those guys should break the bank. If it’s not going to happen on the open market, swinging a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well with.
     
    Although the system isn’t as loaded as it once was, the Twins minor league depth right now is in a great place. Royce Lewis probably remains off the table, but he’s less untouchable than I assumed even a year ago. Beyond that, everyone should be under consideration. Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran headline the pitching while Trevor Larnach, Aaron Sabato, and Keoni Cavaco are the offensive gems.
     
    Without reading too much into what Passan has reported, there’s certainly a feeling of a silent killer right now. Chicago is looking to load up as the White Sox have their most competitive team in years. The Twins are the clear cream of the crop right now though and remaining there will take legitimate additions. After hearing about payroll decreases and scaled back financial efforts after decreased revenues in 2020, there should have been legitimate fear regarding Minnesota’s opportunity to capitalize.
     
    If this is just the beginning of smoke, and we don’t have fire for some time, the hope should be that this is an inkling of the Twins keeping their foot on the gas. The front office and development staff have pushed a largely home-grown roster to the point of opportunity. The window is wide open and continuing to jump through it as long as they can, should be the goal. One Postseason win, or a series victory is where it starts, but this organization has all the makings of a legitimate contender.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    This will be my 6th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.
     
    The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.
     
    Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:
     
    2016 Top 15 Prospects
    2017 Top 15 Prospects
    2018 Top 15 Prospects
    2019 Top 15 Prospects
    2020 Top 15 Prospects
     
    Now, let’s get to it!
     
    15. Akil Baddoo OF
     
    Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.
     
    14. Gilberto Celestino OF
     
    Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.
     
    13. Matt Wallner OF
     
    The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.
    12. Matt Canterino RHP
     
    On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.
     
    11. Lewis Thorpe LHP
     
    Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.
     
    10. Aaron Sabato 1B
     
    I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.
     
    9. Keoni Cavaco SS
     
    Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.
     
    8. Brent Rooker OF/1B
     
    If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.
     
    7. Blayne Enlow RHP
     
    I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.
     
    6. Ryan Jeffers C
     
    Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.
     
    5. Jhoan Duran RHP
     
    There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.
     
    4. Trevor Larnach OF
     
    For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.
     
    3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
     
    Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.
     
    2. Royce Lewis SS
     
    Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.
     
    1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B
     
    Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Welcome to a new era of Minnesota Twins baseball. This isn’t the Terry Ryan regime anymore, and it hasn’t been for quite some time. What was ushered in with Derek Falvey represented a more progressive way of thinking. Unfortunately, the downside to that is having other organizations looking to play copycat. Now that is beginning to come full circle.
     
    Last offseason the Twins lost their hitting coach. James Rowson was the architect behind a lineup that hit the most home runs in Major League Baseball history, and his championing of launch angle and exit velocity was a far cry from the contact approach of yesteryear. Rudy Hernandez and Edgar Varela remained, but Twins fans often wondered if Rowson’s departure didn’t explain some of the step backwards this season.
     
    While the offseason is hardly aged yet as we head into 2021, the Twins have seen a few coaches poached from their minor league ranks as well. Although it’s big league losses like Rowson and Derek Shelton that resonate most with the casual fan, it’s the absence of names like Tanner Swanson and J.P. Martinez that really signify the strength of organization infrastructure.
     

     
    Today it was announced that Twins General Manager Thad Levine is a “significant player” in the Phillies search for a new head of baseball operations. That’s an appealing job no doubt, given Levine’s hand in retooling the Twins organization. Philadelphia has fallen flat on developing prospects, and now they are Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler with little else to make a serious run. Orchestrating that turnaround on his own without sharing credit under Falvey has to be an exciting premise.
     
    Initially that would seem like a brutal blow for Minnesota. Levine and Falvey have seemingly been connected at the hip, and since their introductory press conference they’ve consistently talked about a collaborative environment. What has become apparent since that time, however, is that Falvey is no stranger to identifying and hiring the right people in the right positions. It’s because of the Twins infrastructure that he has orchestrated that teams are interested in pulling from the club.
     
    Ken Rosenthal recently wrote a piece that included bit praising the Twins throughout the contract negotiation period with their arbitration eligible players. Agents noted that Levine was great to work with and that comes across as a glowing report for Minnesota’s GM. Expecting Falvey to find someone internally or externally to replace those shoes is hardly unfathomable, however. That’s not to say losing Levine is without consequence but trusting in the process from the top down has truly become something easy to buy into.
     
    I’d prefer not to see Minnesota lose Thad Levine prior to reaching the peak with a World Series that this organization is now directed towards. However, as architectural as he has been throughout the years here, I believe the process and structure in place will continue bearing fruit regardless of the replacement. The Twins have turned themselves into an organization akin to the Tampa Bay Rays from a front office and coaching perspective. That’s more than an enviable reality to look into.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    As has been the expectation now for week, the St. Paul Saints will officially join the Minnesota Twins organization in 2021 per reports from the Star Tribune. Previously playing in the American Association as an Independent Baseball team, they’ll now assume the role of the Twins Triple-A affiliate.
     
    For years there has been talk about the convenience having an affiliate just down I-94 would provide the Twins. Then during the pandemic shortened season, CHS Field acted as the alternate site for the Major League club. With Major League Baseball throwing around its weight and controlling baseball across the country, a massive reshuffling has taken place. Gone are roughly 40 minor league clubs as 120 total affiliates is the new number. Regional restructuring has taken place, and new draft feeder leagues have emerged.
     
    Impacting the Twins is a new partner at the highest minor league level. Having been affiliated with the Rochester Red Wings since 2003, the Minnesota Twins will now turn a new chapter in their developmental history. The Saints were founded in 1993 and were originally part of the Northern League prior to joining the American Association.
     
    As it’s the Saints joining the Twins organization, they’ll inherit talent from within. Minnesota will now send Triple-A destined prospects to St. Paul rather than Rochester. This means that the players previously under contract with the Saints will be displaced throughout Independent Baseball. Per reporter Chelsea Ladd, there have been talks the American Association will hold a draft of sorts to find those players new teams.
     
    Also, of note is the Twins swapping their Double-A affiliate. After just one season working with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, the Twins will now join forces with the Wichita Wind Surge. The Wind Surge were originally scheduled to operate as the Miami Marlins Triple-A affiliate, with 2020 being their first season. Obviously with the pandemic that never happened. It’s not great news for Wichita, who will drop a level in with the affiliation, but Minnesota inherits a closer Double-A club and one that is opening a brand-new ballpark and facilities.
     

     
    Certainly, Major League Baseball expanding its reach across Major League, Minor League, and now even amateur baseball is a suboptimal development. Having such a monopoly over the sport, ownership groups continue to line their pockets while paydays for future generations of talent can continue to be stifled. However, if you’re simply a Twins fan, having the ability to watch future franchise pieces just 13 miles from Target Field, and a driveable journey to Wichita as a possibility, isn’t the worst silver lining.
     
    For years, the St. Paul Saints possibility has been kicked around, and now in the first year it will happen top prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Jordan Balazovic, and Jhoan Duran should all be featured for a time in St. Paul. We may have to wait through the waning stages of a pandemic to see them in person, but a new era of baseball in Twins Territory has been ushered in.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into the 2019 Major League Baseball season the Twins had few question marks more glaring than what their bullpen would look like. Fast forward to season’s end and it was among the best units in baseball. That happened largely because of internal development, and Zack Littell was part of that.
     
    Acquired from the New York Yankees, Littell had pitched a brief 20.1 innings during the 2018 season. Working as both a starter and reliever in his debut year, he moved completely to the pen in 2019. Across 37.0 IP Littell posted a 2.68 ERA and 171 ERA+. While he wasn’t counted upon as one of Rocco Baldelli’s top arms, he consistently got the job done.
     
    Fast forward to 2020 and Littell seemed to quickly fall out of favor with the big-league club. He was given just 6.1 IP this past season, and after a disastrous debut in which he allowed three homers and four runs in just a single inning to White Sox hitters, there wasn’t much more opportunity from there. Ultimately Littell was DFA’d from the 40-man, and after passing through waivers unclaimed, was assigned to the alternate site in St. Paul.
     
    What Minnesota really has here is probably something in the middle of the two extremes. As good as the ERA was in 2020, Littell still owned a 3.62 FIP and whiffed just 7.8 per nine while allowing 2.2 free passes per nine. He saw nearly a 2 mph jump on his fastball velocity once moving to the pen full time, and the 12.8% swinging strike rate in 2019 was nearly double the mark set the year before. Without pitching in too many high leverage situations though, it was on the basis of a relatively untested arm.
     
    Given the emergence of guys like Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar, opportunities dwindled for someone on the fringe. Minnesota tabbed Matt Wisler as a worthy project right away during the 2019 offseason however, and Littell feels like someone worth investing in this time around. Should the Twins not add him back to the 40-man, he’d be a free agent, but letting g of talent like that needing to fill spots in the pen seems foolish.
     
    There was next to no amount of normalization when it comes to production in 2020. With the season being just 60 games, a small sample size was the absolute best you’d be able to get. Having chopped up opportunity as Littell did, and seemingly losing his stature during the first week of the season, it’d be great to see him compete with a traditional runway once again.
     
    If Minnesota is truly going to shave payroll in response to decreased revenues during 2020, then making sure there’s an adequate amount of low-cost, high-performing talents internally is a must. That may mean there’s a revolving door for some spots until they get it right, but it can’t mean moving on from options prior to determining what is truly there. Zack Littell looks the part of a bounce-back contributor next season and giving up on that possibility when he’s just 25-years-old would be a mistake.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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