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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    Through 64 games and just shy of 250 plate appearances, he owns an .836 OPS and is batting .335. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and if he ever puts 10 balls out of the park in a single season any team would be ecstatic. What he can be though, is an ideal leadoff hitter with great average skills and elite on-base production thanks to plate discipline that’s otherworldly. He handles the bat to the point that Tony Gwynn would be proud of, and his approach at the plate in unwavering.
     
    It is for those reasons that he’s played himself into the starting second basemen role when Opening Day comes knocking. Nick Gordon hasn’t yet made his major league debut, and as his chief competition, it isn’t surprising to suggest that Arraez would have a leg up. From a second base perspective alone, it’s worth wondering if that spot isn’t more circumstantial than anything else for Arraez.
     
    Eventually the hope would be that Royce Lewis would make his MLB debut and take over as Minnesota’s starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco is not long for that position, even though he’s made strides this year. The arm is still questionable there, and Polanco has gone through bouts of inconsistency as he works through his throwing process. Signed to a long-term extension, Polanco isn’t like to move out of the organization any time soon, and an up-the-middle-tandem seems to be destined for Lewis and Polanco.
     
    There also has always been the idea that Miguel Sano is not long for third base. Although he’s hung around the average-to-slightly-below mark this season, a body that big seems to profile more on the other corner. Thad Levine recently suggested that Minnesota doesn’t see Sano as an ideal fit at 1B presently, and they see third as an easier avenue to keeping him engaged in the action. As necessity pushes him from the spot though, they may need to re-evaluate their plans.
     
    So, assuming Polanco slides over at short is filled, Arraez could find himself at the hot corner. This is all assuming the hit tool continues to play, but the position makes some sense. He’s almost always been a second basemen on the farm, and his time there has tripled the third action with the Twins. In 282 innings at second however, he owns a -6 DRS and -1.7 UZR. The 100-inning sample at 3B is incredible small, but he’s been worth 0 DRS and a -0.5 UZR. Minnesota will get plenty more data to evaluate prior to decision making time, but it’s a narrative to monitor.
     
    If everything develops on an expected and linear track (which is to essentially say this won’t happen at all), then Lewis and Polanco man the middle for Minnesota by late 2020. At that point Sano could then move to 1B or DH (after Nelson Cruz is gone) and Arraez slides into the hot corner. Maybe Luis won’t continue to hit (seems unlikely) or maybe he’ll be dealt (not sure that’s probable), but second base doesn’t seem like the guaranteed long-term fit for the Venezuelan and I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with that.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    As analytics have crept into the game of baseball and taken a foothold as the chief form of evaluation, players from all different eras rail against the game in its current state. The game has definitely changed to cater towards the exceptional athletes that play it today, and the sport has taken notice as well. Unwritten rules have forever (and will always) be part of baseball, but there’s a certain aspect still waiting to be phased out.
     
    The idea that baseball polices itself has long been one that has held weight. As the game has adapted to use slogans like “Let the kids play” and adopted rule changes at bases and the plate, it’s clear there’s an emphasis on keeping these elite athletes on the field of play. With that in mind, it’s beyond time to put an end to the retaliatory pitch.
     
    In last night’s Twins and Rangers game, outfielder Jake Cave swung on a 3-0 pitch and lined a single into the outfield. It was a 13-6 game and in the top of the 9th inning. Cave immediately apologized to pitcher Shawn Kelley upon reaching first base, and he appeared to have lost track of the count. Kelley overlooked the acknowledgement and after going 3-0 to the Max Kepler, plunked him on the arm.
     
    Discussion from the booth, from Roy Smalley and Dick Bremer, immediately turned to that act as retaliation for Cave’s transgression. In a game that Minnesota was blowing out Texas, he had the audacity to swing his bat. Kelley couldn’t find the zone for a second straight batter, and then quit competing to hurl a ball into the arm of the Twins centerfielder. A sport that now has rules in place to protect its players, watched as a pitcher hurled a pitch into a batter, simply because he was upset.
     
    I have no problem with avoidance of the mound, looking presentable on the field, carrying yourself with a level of self-respect, or any number of lesser unwritten rules. I do have an issue with the idea that a pitcher gets to throw a projectile at a batter any time they feel scorned or upset. While wearing a pitch isn’t the end of the world, taking a 90-mph baseball to any part of your body doesn’t feel good, and can certainly open the door to a more substantial injury.
     
    There’s a level of respect shown to an opponent taking one base at a time or giving away pitches in a blowout game. That’s not a necessity though and is something the winning team does to show mercy. Expecting that to be the practice, and then reacting negatively when it doesn’t take place is lunacy. Minnesota wouldn’t have been afforded the good graces of the Rangers simply striking out should they have mounted a 9th inning comeback. Deciding when the game no longer is worth playing in the middle of it is not for any one person to opine. On top of that, this instance stemmed from a guy who clearly stated his intentions and felt bad for what he considered a misstep.
     
    At the end of the day it isn’t that Jake Cave got his teammate Max Kepler hit. That’s what happened, but it was the idiocy of Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley that decided an attempt to injure an opponent was fair response to him failing at his job. The easiest way to avoid having your feelings hurt in defeat is to steer clear of situations where you cause self-embarrassment. Last night the Rangers were an abomination, and then they doubled down on that fact in how they carried out the 9th inning.
     
    Hopefully the Twins find no need to keep the beanball war going tonight, but I certainly hope every dinger that leaves the park ends with a bat flip landing mere feet from the mound and the pitcher that offered it up.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    For weeks we’ve heard talk of the big names. Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and Noah Syndergaard were all assets expected to be moved at the July 31 trade deadline. Because the Minnesota Twins are one of the best teams in baseball they were consistently linked to the best gets, and so too were every other major market. In the end, that trio went nowhere, but it’s in how Minnesota executed on their moves that makes the maneuvering something to get behind.
     
    Without hammering out more thoughts on Sergio Romo, it’s hard to see that move as anything but a come up. I already wrote about the move when it happened over the weekend, but they turned a guy who was going to be lost during the Rule 5 draft into a strong reliever and an equal or better prospect. Knowing the goal was relief help, Derek Falvey struck early on the former Marlins close.
     
    As the deadline neared on Tuesday afternoon, apprehension began to set in. Hours faded away, they turned into minutes, and the 3pm CT mark came and went. Then there was a tweet Darren Wolfson sent simply saying, “Stay tuned.” As long as deals are finalized with the league office prior to the cutoff, they go through. Having not yet been reported, Minnesota was in fact making a move.
     
    All along it was thought that Smith was the San Francisco Giants reliever on his way out of town. Stringing together some victories of late however, Bruce Bochy’s club is going to make one more run and held onto their top starter and reliever. In doing this, Falvey likely pivoted to what can be argued as a better get.
     
    Sam Dyson is a 31-year-old reliever with closing experience. Having familiarity with Thad Levine from his Texas days, Dyson closed out 38 games for the Rangers in 2016. This year he’s posted a 2.47 ERA 2.74 FIP 8.3 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. He doesn’t still throw upper 90’s like earlier in his career, but he sits in the middle and doesn’t give up free bases. Under team control through next season as well, this move plays into the future.
     

     
    Going into the deadline I opined that the Twins could do no worse than two relievers with a starter pushing someone to the bullpen as gravy. None of the big relief names moved and Dyson represents the best arm to switch teams. Outside of Chris Martin, who is an impending free agent, Romo likely comes in above the rest as well.
     
    If you find yourself disappointed that the likes of Thor, MadBum, or Greinke won’t be in the home dugout any time soon I’d like to offer some perspective. First and foremost, neither of the first two players switched teams. The Mets asked for the most important player on the Twins roster in the middle of a season, while the Giants we’re holding a big name with declining performance back for a king’s ransom.
     
    Houston did well to land Greinke, and coming in after the buzzer he certainly provided the big bang to end the day. The former Diamondbacks starter would’ve been an ideal candidate for Minnesota as adding salary is certainly an avenue they could’ve went down. He would’ve helped to solidify the rotation and also is under contract. He is 35-years-old though, and most importantly had a full no-trade clause. It was his choice where he went, and that wasn’t here.
     
    Almost as what the Twins got at the deadline is what they held onto. With the big names floated for weeks, so two were prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, and Trevor Larnach. Falvey added talent in the most necessary part of the roster without giving up a single top 20 prospect. Lewin Diaz was the highest ceiling moved, and he was unquestionably buried behind some better depth. Jaylin Davis is having an incredible 2019, but it’s come out of nowhere and again is in an area of depth.
     
    You want to see a team start to push chips in when a window opens, but you must be certain that it isn’t just cracked. The Astros have made waves the last two seasons now in the midst of a third straight 100 win campaign. The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres in a final piece World Series move after winning 97 games the year prior, and are now looking at a fifth straight 90 win campaign. Those types of moves are risky but were beyond substantiated.
     
    Minnesota should win 100 games this year but it comes on the heels of a losing season. This core looks the part of a team that should be a Postseason and World Series contender for at least the next five seasons. They have no less than 15 players that are impact talent and will be 32-years-old or under four years from now. Rocco Baldelli’s 25-man roster is good enough right now to beat anyone in the Postseason. In 2020 and beyond, some of the additional depth can be turned into more talent, as the opportunity stays present.
     
    To summarize the past few weeks that led up to a frenzied couple of hours today, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine showed poised perfection in how they handled talent acquisition. The big league club got substantially better. The farm system did not get any worse. Sustained winning is still a probable outcome and the team from Twins Territory is as dangerous as it’s ever been.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    This winter two free agents jumped out at me as being obvious fits for this Minnesota Twins team. Marwin Gonzalez with his positional flexibility and Nelson Cruz for his big bat seemed like perfect fits for a lineup needing to fill some holes. Despite Cruz getting up there in age, he hadn’t shown any signs of slowing down and the only question was whether that would carry over into 2019. Now beyond the halfway point I think we have all the answers necessary.
     
    After a National League swing in early April a handful of Twins fans popped up questioning whether the long-time designated hitter still had it. Through the first game of an April 20th doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles Cruz owns a .268/.412/.415 slash line. He’d hit just one home run and wasn’t looking like the guy that blasts 30 dingers with ease. If the 17-game sample size wasn’t enough to suggest it was too soon, then the four-hit nightcap that day should have been. After game two of the doubleheader Minnesota’s DH owned a .326/.446/.609 line and the rest may be history.
     
    With 78 games under his belt the newly turned 39-year-old has posted a .980 OPS for the Twins. That’s the best mark over any full season in his career. Slugging over .600 for the first time he’s got a career high there as well, and the .375 OBP is even with his high-water mark set in 2017 with the Seattle Mariners.
     
    ZiPS projected Cruz to post an .848 OPS in 2019 and saw him hitting 30 home runs. While the slash line will remain in flux through the end of the season, he’s already at 26 and is tracking towards 40 long balls for the fourth time in his career, and first since 2016. Obviously, the golf ball-esque baseball doesn’t hurt anything for a big-time power hitter, but Cruz is still doing plenty of this on his own.
     
    You don’t have to search far to find Nelson’s name on hard hit leaderboards. His 12.3 barrels per plate appearance are second in baseball behind only the Yankees Gary Sanchez. His 94.2 mph average exit velocity trails only Aaron Judge and his 54.4% hard hit rate is the best in the sport. Roughly one-third of the balls he puts in the air leave the yard, and a good portion of them seem to go into orbit. If there was an expected decline to come, Cruz himself seemed to miss the memo.
     
    Looking at the body of work really isn’t to suggest this is uncharted territory for Cruz, he’s had better seasons. In 2015 and 2016 with the Mariners he combined to post a total of 9.4 fWAR. It’s fair to assume production would slow as you age, but this is going to be a better year than he had as a All Star for the 6th time last season and could conceivably reach a 4.0 fWAR baseline.
     
    The Twins got Cruz for $250k less than the Mariners paid him a season ago, and the $12MM option in 2020 looks like a forgone conclusion at this point. He’ll be 40 next July and if we can take performance in this campaign as any indicator, the only thing going over the hill will be a boatload of bombas.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    For weeks it's been apparent that the Minnesota Twins need bullpen help. As we've gotten closer to the trade deadline the certainty that moves would be made has only become more clear. Tonight while in the midst of a battle with the Chicago White Sox, Derek Falvey was working the phones and landed RHP Sergio Romo from the Miami Marlins.
     
    Romo was a free agent this offseason and signed with Miami on a one-year, $2.5 million pact. He was someone I liked for the Twins but the front office decided to stand pat after the acquisition of Blake Parker. Romo was abysmal to start the season for Miami but has been lights out of late, and his dominant slider remains as good as it's ever been.
     
    Since May 22nd Romo has pitched in 22 games going 21.2 IP. He has a 2.49 ERA and a .585 OPS against. The strikeouts have been down this year and he was at just 16/3 K/BB over that stretch, but the stuff may be as good as it's ever been. Right now he owns a whiff rate near 14% in 2019 and his 40% chase rate is a career best.
     
    When you've been doing this for as long as Romo has, and without ever being a velocity pitcher, it's the offspeed stuff that must work. Sergio throws his slider nearly 60% of the time and it's continued to be an incredible offering. His slider posts an RPM of 2852 which is 9th best among sliders in baseball this season.
     
    Falvey obviously had to part with an asset in trade, and choosing Lewin Diaz makes a lot of sense here. He's a 22-year-old that posted a sub-.600 OPS at Fort Myers last season. Having put in significant work to get his body right this winter, he's having a breakout campaign with 19 HRs and an OPS north of .900 split between A+/AA. That's really where the good news for the Twins and Diaz ends however.
     
    Lewin would need to be added to the 40 man roster this winter or be subject to the Rule 5 draft. He went unprotected and unchosen last year, but that wasn't going to happen after the results this year. In that scenario the Twins lose him for nothing. He's a great defender at first and a nice power bat, but he's also behind at least Miguel Sano, Brent Rooker, and Alex Kirilloff for major league reps at first base in the not-so-distant future.
     
    This wasn't a one for one trade either. Minnesota also got back 2018 5th round pick Chris Vallimont from the Marlins. He's pitching at Low-A currently as a starter and the righty has been a high strikeout, low walk hurler in his young pro career. He too is 22-years-old but is not subject to 40 man necessity yet and gives the Twins depth on the mound, where they need it more. Reports have also suggested Minnesota picks up a PTBNL in the deal.
     
    It would be hard to see a Diaz for Vallimont swap as anything but a win for Minnesota. They get a more usable asset and the expiration date is pushed out. If the assumption was that Diaz could be packaged to net a bigger return that's one thing, but you'd have to imagine Falvey explored those options as well. This isn't going to be the Twins only move, and probably not even their only move for the pen. As a first deal though, they smashed this one out of the park.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are going to be scouring the trade market for the next few days as they look to supplement their big-league club. Relief pitching will be the main focus, but adding a starter makes some sense too. I am out on trading real assets for rentals, but a controllable arm could be more than enticing for Derek Falvey. The premiere name out there is the New York Mets Noah Syndergaard. 2019 has been a down year, but just how good is he?
     
    Commonly known as Thor, Syndergaard is a controllable asset through the 2021 Major League Baseball season. He’s costing the Mets just $6 million this season on an arbitration deal, and that figure will rise slightly each of the next two campaigns. After posting a 2.93 ERA through his first four big league seasons he owns a 4.33 mark in 2019. Much of that is on the Mets being the worst defensive team in baseball however, as his FIP is 3.64.
     
    Drafted out of high school there’s a lot to like with Syndergaard. He has worked in the majors since his age 22 season and has consistently been among the best pitchers in the sport. Yet to win a Cy Young or make multiple All-Star teams, his best years are likely yet to come. Unfortunately, he’s never been completely healthy and has pitched over 180 innings in a season just one time during his five-year career. When he’s on the mound it’s must watch action, but you have to believe in his ability to stay there.
     
    Looking under the hood we can generate a better idea of what Thor actually brings to the table. His 98.2 mph average fastball velocity is right in line with career norms, and he’s one of the hardest throwing starters in the game. The career 13.2% whiff rate is solid and while he’s down to 12.5% this season, that’s still a strong floor. Generating a ground ball roughly 50% of the time over the course of his career and giving up hard contact less then 30% of the time, it’s a batted ball profile that should generate success.
     
    To address some of the 2019 concerns we can probably start first and foremost with the slider. Although Syndergaard can blow his fastball by many big-league hitters, it’s the breaking pitch that keeps them off balance. For whatever reason he went from utilizing the slider 20% of the time all the way down to 12% in 2019. He’s throwing his fastball more than at any point since 2016, and he’s sprinkled in a bit more changeup usage. Working with him on what is a dominant secondary offering is probably part of the puzzle here.
     
    Because he’s gone to a straighter offering more often, batters are more than likely able to hone in on the zone. We some evidence of that in his chase rate this season. Down to a career low 31.5%, opposing hitters simply aren’t offering at pitches outside of the strike zone. Despite not being egregious by any means, that input has also led to a career high 73.8% contract rate.
     
    At the end of the day it’s pretty difficult to argue against the merits of a 26-year-old fireballer that throws a ton of strikes and limits walks. Sure, the overall numbers are down some in 2019, but it appears that all the stuff is still there. Expecting Wes Johnson to help unlock everything all at once is a pretty good bet and getting a guy like this that can be worked with for a significant period of time would really bear some fruit.
     
    Organizations like the Twins really have to determine their path when looking at how to best position themselves for an ace. Derek Falvey swung for the fences on Yu Darvish as a free agent a year ago, but ultimately stopped shy of matching the Cubs offer. Regardless of that deal now looking bad, the Twins being the frontrunner on the premiere free agent starting option seems like a foolish bet on an annual basis. You can certainly draft and develop talent, but that’s also not a straightforward process and one that takes an incredible amount of time. That only leaves the trade route.
     
    Dealing for a guy like Syndergaard is going to hurt in the form of prospect capital. The Star Tribune’s Lavelle E. Neal suggested that New York has asked for both Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, which should not happen, but any deal is going to be steep. At some point it becomes whether the front office wants to deal in dollars or prospects, and for Syndergaard the latter may be worth genuinely exploring.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Arguably the most exciting game the Minnesota Twins have played in nearly a decade, the home team dropped a 14-12 affair last night (err this morning) at Target Field. It’s in these last few games against the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees that two very real truths have been exposed. For the duration of 2019 it will be how each storyline unfolds that ultimately determines the fate of the season.
     
    First and foremost, the Twins are good and can hang with anyone in baseball. There was a narrative earlier this year that Rocco Baldelli’s club was only beating bad teams. While “teams with a .500 record” is an inexact science given the fluidity of records, Minnesota is playing at something like a 90-win pace against other teams in or around Postseason contention. Yes, they’ve beat up on bottom feeders, but they’ve also more than held their own against stiff competition.
     
    As of today, both the Yankees and Athletics are slotted into American League Postseason positions. The Twins split their four-game series with Oakland posting an even run differential over the set. In five games against New York, Minnesota owns a 2-3 record and has come up just two runs short of an even run differential. With a rubber match game looming tonight, this split could get even tighter.
     
    In winning games against good teams it’s been the offense that has gotten the job done. Although the lineup has slumped from the blistering pace it started 2019 on the Bomba Squad is still pounding extra-base hits at a healthy clip. Over the course of a full 162 game schedule this collection is far too good to stay down for long. As pitching, both starting and relief, regresses towards statistical parallels it’s the bats that should be expected for a continued rebound.
     
    On the mound we’ve seen a confirmation of what we already know. In the past week Minnesota’s bullpen has blown late leads on no less than four occasions. Cody Stashak worked important innings during his MLB debut last night, and Lewis Thorpe was there the night before. Kohl Stewart was tasked with keeping a big game tied in the 10th, and any number of arms have been called upon from the Rochester pipeline.
     
    Derek Falvey knows full well that he needs to get this team relief help. Rocco Baldelli is playing Russian Roulette on a nightly basis, and the result continues to be Band-Aids on a bullet wound. The front office can’t afford to skimp on an ok veteran in the pen, this roster needs difference makers. While the long-term vision remains important, wasting a team and opportunity this good by making a safe move can’t be the plan of action.
     
    We’re on a collision course with two pivotal points in the Minnesota schedule. A week from now the trade deadline rears its head, and in just a few days the opposition gets incredibly light. Minnesota knows how this book has begun, but it’s on them to write the final chapters.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Every single time the New York Yankees square off against the Minnesota Twins you hear the statistics. Minnesota has been dominated by the Evil Empire. Ron Gardenhire’s division winning teams consistently found their season cut short by Yankees lineups. Whether at Target Field or the Metrodome, Twins fans have long looked at these series and circled them to highlight impending doom. Now leading the AL Central, I can all but assure you that when the Yankees filter into the opposing dugout this evening the number of Twins players caring about historical relevance will be zero.
     
    Two years ago, a Paul Molitor Twins squad popped up out of nowhere to win 85 games. Not much was expected from that group and grabbing the Wild Card spot was a surprise to plenty within the organization. Jumping out to a 3-0 lead after their first at bats the Twins quickly gave back the runs only for the dust to settle with an 8-4 defeat. That starting lineup included just four regular starters from this current squad. The leadoff batter moved to the National League while the number two batter has retired to his couch.
     
    It’s in the turnover that this discussion of history really goes to die.
     
    Rocco Baldelli currently manages a very good Minnesota Twins squad. They lead the majors in longballs, have pitched above their heads for over half the season, and even with a slight downtick in production, employ the third best offense in the sport. All those things are factually true right now, today. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, and Marwin Gonzalez have never faced the Yankees in a Twins uniform. Each of those players are directly responsible for the great season Minnesota is having and that impact will be felt much more than the numbers Justin Morneau or Michael Cuddyer compiled against New York.
     
    If there’s a significance in this series, it’s that the two teams are good and playing against good opponents should provide somewhat of a measuring stick for a club. The Yankees have taken over the title of best record in the American League and having won five of their last six contests. Aaron Boone’s team hasn’t been on the road since the All-Star Break, but they do own a solid 26-17 record away from Yankees Stadium. Minnesota is an even 30-19 both at home and away, but having dropped the series 1-2 in the Bronx, will look to at least end the season total with a split.
     
    There’s also a get right opportunity here for the Twins in that the Yankees employ just the 13th ranked starting unit in baseball. New York has scheduled two lefties in the matchup and that plays into the hands of the righty bombers for the Twins. Producing a full run less per game over the past couple of months, favorable pitching matchups should be something this group salivates over.
     
    At the end of the day this series is a big one for both clubs. Each of these teams is looking to improve their positioning for the stretch run, and they’ll be looking to notch quality wins against quality competition. Call the Twins and underdog if you’d like, but no one on either side of this matchup is worried about what has taken place in previous years. Minnesota has tracked towards one of the best teams in organization history, and while that’s uncharted waters on its own, so is the writing of their story against the club leading the AL East.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    At this point the Minnesota Twins are undoubtedly amping up their efforts to acquire big league assets for the stretch run and Postseason. I've been on record multiple times suggesting I'd like to see at least to moves made, and a starter coming more as a luxury. Unless the starting pitcher is under team control, go big on expiring relief help and call it a day. The most realistic name I'm intrigued by in that vein is Marcus Stroman. So, how does Derek Falvey pry him away from the Toronto Blue Jays?
     
    Although the idea of acquiring Stroman is significantly more enticing than grabbing a rental like Madison Bumgarner, the cost will also represent a more substantial amount. I'd hope that Minnesota could go into talks with the idea that Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol are all off limits. Understanding that may not be completely realistic we'll progress with two different possibilities.
     
    Option A: Minnesota Twins acquire SP Marcus Stroman and RP Ken Giles. Toronto Blue Jays acquire OF Brent Rooker, SS Wander Javier, RHP Jorge Alcala, and OF Akil Baddoo
     
    Something like this is where Minnesota should want to be. I'm not certain that this will be enough for Toronto to pull the trigger, but there's two legitimate top 10 prospects from a very good system included here. Trevor Larnach could be swapped out for Rooker depending on preference, and any number of similar prospects could be had in the place of Baddoo. Hanging on to the top trio will cost more bodies, and there would likely be a larger premium placed on the secondary additions in this case.
     
    Option B: Minnesota Twins acquire SP Marcus Stroman and RP Ken Giles. Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Brusdar Graterol, INF Travis Blankenhorn, and RHP Edwar Colina.
     
    If Minnesota is willing to part with any bit of that top trio then it should be the only player in their top 10 necessary of inclusion. Graterol could draw skepticism from opposing teams as he's currently dealing with a shoulder injury, and there still remains a possibility he winds up in the bullpen. I'd hesitate a significant amount if the ask is to swap him out for Kirilloff, but that could be the cost of doing business.
     
    Reality is that the Twins haven't had a perfect storm like this in quite some time. This club needs a big boost down for the stretch run, and they are well positioned to make serious Postseason noise. On top of that, they have legitimate openings going into next season and a controllable starter like Stroman isn't just a short term play.
     
    Signing big ticket free agents hasn't always been the optimal path to roster construction, and it's one the Twins have avoided as recent as this season. There will be a 40 man roster crunch coming, and a 25 man shakedown beyond that. Hording prospects is a good thing, but realizing some are best utilized as moveable assets, and which ones specifically, is part of what makes a good front office.
     
    Things are about to get very interesting in Twins Territory over the next few weeks. Whether on the field or in the back office, you won't want to look away.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are one of the most well positioned franchises in baseball to acquire serious assets this month. Needing help on the mound, the optimal plan would be in acquiring two relievers and a starter. Without knowing how it will shake out, we do know that Derek Falvey's club has been connected to the San Francisco Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Should a deal be struck, what may that look like?
     
    Given the Giants current standing, and free agency looming for the pair, both Bumgarner and Will Smith have been the focus of numerous trade discussions. Any selling organization would almost certainly prefer packages for players that part out one asset at a time. While Minnesota could use both Smith and Bumgarner we can separate the two of them for the sake of this exercise.
     
    In his latest piece for The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal noted that Giants GM Farhan Zaidi prefers to get prospects closer to the majors. Not wanting lottery tickets and looking for an expedited rebuild, that's certainly an understandable plan. Prior to making any move, Minnesota must be convinced of what they'd be acquiring.
     
    Bumgarner's name is one inviting all of the stories. He's a former World Series hero and has been included in the ace discussion over the course of his career. Right now he's a pitcher with a 3.86 ERA backed by FIP and xFIP numbers that suggest the mark is true. His velocity is in a similar place to what it's always been and despite major injuries in recent years, consistency has been relatively reliable.
     
    There's no reason to think that any big league organization is trading for a player solely based on name recognition or pedigree. Falvey won't be lulled into the belief that this is the same guy who picked up a World Series MVP nod in 2014. If the scouting process reveals the soon-to-be 30-year-old has enough ability to bolster the rotation then a merit based acquisition would make plenty of sense.
     
    Now we get to the cost of a deal. This is a rental Minnesota would be taking on in hopes of a deeper Postseason performance yet this season. He's not going to slot in ahead of staff ace Jose Berrios and any belief that Bumgarner would cost the Twins one of their top three prospects seems absurd. Excluding Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol from this deal gives us a clearer layout of what assets to look for.
     
    Factoring in the Giants desire for players at the upper levels of the organization we can target players currently sitting at Double or Triple-A in the Minnesota system. Having such a deep and strong farm system the Twins can part out pieces and still be well set up for the future.
     
    Minnesota Twins acquire SP Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco Giants acquire OF Brent Rooker, INF Nick Gordon, and RHP Sean Poppen.
     
    With this return the Giants are getting a bit of everything. Rooker has a legit bat and would be in the big leagues for a significant amount of organizations right now. He plays on the corners, and there's questions about whether a move to first could happen with his current footwork. Swing and miss tendencies have slowed over the season with Triple-A Rochester and the power should play fine in any park. The Giants would be smart to ask for Trevor Larnach here, but he's further off and Minnesota should want to protect the upside there if they can.
     
    Former first round pick Nick Gordon has regained some of his promise. No longer a top 100 name, he is posting a .788 OPS during his second trip through the International League. Gordon isn't likely ever going to hit for power, but he's got a .291 average across 55 games at Rochester this season and is doing that with a serviceable .335 OBP. Speed is one of his best assets, and while he's not brother Dee, Nick can turn it on around the bases. You'd like to see a more even K/BB ratio, and he's more 2B than SS at this point, but there's a 23-year-old regular here.
     
    Poppen fits the mold of a solid trade candidate. He's 25 and at Triple-A for Minnesota, but there's more than a few arms slotted ahead of him for long term consideration. He had a mediocre start to the year at Double-A but has turned it on big time with Rochester. Posting a 10.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 49 innings at Triple-A this season, his 2.39 ERA is a career best. Sitting mid-90's with his fastball, this is a guy that can bolster the back end of a rotation and gets another boost pitching on the junior circuit.
     
    Obviously the names and talent included in this deal shifts if Will Smith is indeed paired with Bumgarner, but this seems like a decent framework to begin the process with. Over the coming weeks we'll find out what comes to fruition, but the certainty of a move for Minnesota seems imminent.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    As the door closes on the first half of the 2019 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins sit in sole possession of first place in the AL Central Division. They have a 5.5 game lead over the favorited Cleveland Indians and find themselves with Postseason odds north of 96%. This drastic turnaround is because of the work both Rocco Baldelli and the front office has put in, but one player on the field has made an incredible impact as well.
     
    After being cast aside by plenty of Twins fans due to failed expectations thus far in his career Byron Buxton has emerged as a national presence. Losing virtually all of 2018 due to injury, Buxton returned this year with plenty to prove. Still just 25 years-old it was undoubtedly weighing on him to make this the breakout campaign. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes provided some great insight into Buck’s offseason and it appeared those words had some serious weight behind them.
     
    To this point Buxton has played in 73 of the Twins 89 games. He has missed some time needing an IL stint, but his 2.5 fWAR ranks third among hitters on the club. In over 235 at bats he has an .816 OPS, will hit double-digit homers, and is on pace to set career highs virtually across the board. Offensively Buxton has arrived. Likely never projecting as an average hitter, inching closer to .270 with sneaky power is where he’ll ultimately settle in. Combining that with his defensive profile makes him an irreplaceable asset.
     
    It’s because of that combination that naming anyone else the Twins first half MVP seems like a misstep. Buxton has been worth 10 DRS this year (2nd in the American League) and trails only Victor Robles and Kevin Kiermaier in Outs Above Average (10). He’s made more five-star outs than anyone in baseball and it’s visually obvious how impactful he is patrolling centerfield.
     
    Even if Baldelli had better options to run out while Buxton was shelved, the ripple effect was always going to be felt. Max Kepler is in the midst of a breakout season as well, and defensively he’s been an incredible asset. Moving him to centerfield worked out wonderfully during Byron’s absence but you cannot simply replace someone as valuable as the Georgia native is.
     
    Right now, the Twins have multiple All Stars, a pitching staff among the best in baseball, and a lineup that’s providing thump at an otherwise unseen pace. Despite all of that, it’s the 9-hole hitter that makes his presence felt most with his glove, who’s consistently provided a level of value propelling the Twins to their current standing.
     
    We’ve waited nearly five years for this to all come together and seeing Byron do it on a team that’s now so good has been enjoyable to say the least.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Needing a starting pitcher, the Minnesota Twins front office send minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Palacios had some hype but was never a top prospect, while Odorizzi had been largely mediocre and was set to turn 28. It’s hard not to see more upside in a big-league starter under team control, but this leap forward has been immense for the former Tampa starter.
     
    Odorizzi was often chided for his efforts by Twins fans last season. He posted a 4.49 ERA backed by a 4.20 FIP. The 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were right in line with career norms. On a bad team he was hardly a large issue and generally pitched better than the surface level numbers suggested. In 2019 he’s gone gangbusters though, and he’s made his first All Star game to show for it.
     
    Cooling off some over the last few weeks, Odorizzi still owns a 2.73 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 85.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP suggest a bit more regression could be coming, but there’s a visible change that’s been made by the pitcher Minnesota trots out as their number two starter. Having been a low 90’s guy his whole big-league career, Odorizzi has added two mph of velocity under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and is now averaging 93.1 mph on the pitch this season. Not only is he throwing harder, but Odorizzi has shifted his repertoire to flip a career high number of sinkers, taking away from both his cutter and splitter.
     
    This new version of Odorizzi is giving up a career high percentage of hard-hit balls, but he’s missing bats at record marks as well. The 12.4% whiff rate is a new high-water mark, while his contact rate is down to just 74.3% and the zone contact rate stands under 80% (78.5%) for the first time in his career. A slight jump in hard hit rate could be explainable through the increased velocity, but even still with that development, missing more barrels is the key component here.
     
    Over the course of his career Odorizzi has averaged 1.2 HR/9 and has never been below the 1.0 mark. Through his first 16 starts he’s allowed just eight homers and is at 0.8 HR/9 on the season. Shedding hits and walks as well, the 1.074 WHIP stands out on its own. Having been integrated into the Twins system a year ago, and now working with a pitching thinktank that’s been overhauled, he’s reaping the rewards.
     
    Next season Odorizzi will find himself on the open market for the first time in his career. The Twins have a couple of holes in their rotation that they’ll need to commit arms to. We don’t yet know how the club will navigate the trade market but extending a guy they already have in house may certainly make some sense.
     
    Last season Jake Odorizzi was getting his feet wet with Minnesota and simply going through the motions he had always practiced to compete. This season he’s been given a few new tools that have taken his game to the next level and everyone involved has benefitted from it.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Max Kepler used to be relatively vocal about his decision to avoid an increased launch angle. He wasn’t looking solely to hit home runs, and while his goal was to enter the zone on a level swing path, he was just fine with ground balls. Former Twins beat writer Mike Berardino talked to the outfielder back in the spring of 2018 and Kepler said as much there. Now he’s become one of the best outfielders in baseball, and it’s because he’s changed his approach.
     

     
    Baseball has transitioned to a sport where getting lift on the baseball provides the optimal route for success. As the game invokes shifts and the ball is now juicier than ever, lifting the pill over defenders is the most direct path to generating extra-base hits. Although this may not be a direct focus for Kepler, it’s a principle that James Rowson has impressed upon Twins hitters and it’s one Max is putting to use.
     
    In 2019 Kepler owns an 18.5 degrees average launch angle. Last year that mark was 16.2 degree and in 2017 it sat at just 12.6 degrees of lift. Launch angle on its own isn’t conducive production, but Max has paired it with an enhanced exit velocity as well. The 90.9 mph mark this season improves upon an 89 mph mark last year and an 88 mph tally the season before. Summarizing it easily, harder and higher is producing the best results of his career.
     
    The percentages reflect what we are seeing in the raw data as well. Kepler owns a career low 35.7% ground ball rate and a career best 18.3% HR/FB number. His 42.6% hard hit rate is nearly seven percent higher than his career average and over a five percent improvement from 2018. Despite chasing and whiffing a bit more often, the contact rate is right on par with career norms and contact within the zone is a career best 93.9%.
     

     
    Through just 70 games played Kepler has the 7th best fWAR total among outfielders. He’s the second best in the American League trailing only a guy named Mike Trout. Minnesota saw the value in their German native this offseason and extended him for $35 million over five years. Fangraphs estimates his worth as already being over half of that mark ($21.8MM).
     
    When you hear launch angle from a place of scrutiny it generally is assumptive of the idea that players are simply swinging up through the zone attempting to get lift. The practice is built around creating hard contact on the bottom portion of the baseball. A level swing can still be utilized with the point of contact being honed in. Combining lift with an enhanced exit velocity is where the power stroke comes from. As balls are being thrown harder than ever, they’re also being put in play at a similarly increasing velocity.
     
    Minnesota’s instruction may not have transformed Kepler’s swing plane through the zone, but it’s certainly worked to adjust the contact point and process when putting the ball in play. Regardless of if the baseball leaves the yard, Kepler is hitting the ball harder and longer than ever before. It’s because of that fact he’s experiencing a jump in performance and the Twins look to be the benefactor of belief over the next five years.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    It’s that time of year again, and with the 2019 Major League Baseball amateur draft in the books we can update the prospect rankings. After picking 13th in the draft this season the Twins took more of a developmental approach with their first-round pick. Going heavy on college players following that selection the system gets much deeper. With early season performances influencing those already into their pro careers this list has some movement to it.
     
    My Top 15 Prospects were last updated in December prior to the season starting. You can see that list, as well as the others dating back to 2016 below. Also, in this offering, I’ve expanded the total names to go 30 deep. While those names past 15 don’t have any breakdown, know that they are certainly names worth monitoring.
     
    2016 Top 15 Prospects
    2017 Top 15 Prospects
    2018 Top 15 Prospects
    2019 Top 15 Prospects
    2019 Twins Draft Picks
     
    30. Gabriel Maciel 29. Travis Blankenhorn 28. Griffin Jax. 27. Zack Littell 26. Jose Miranda 25. Yunior Severino 24. Gilberto Celestino 23. LaMonte Wade 22. Ryan Jeffers 21. Misael Urbina 20. Stephen Gonsalves 19. Akil Baddoo 18. Matt Canterino 17. Ben Rortvedt 16. Luis Arraez
     
    15. Luke Raley OF
     
    Dropping a couple of spots from the first 2019 list, Raley’s positioning is indicative of a strengthened system. He has posted an .878 OPS for Triple-A Rochester and is right there with teammate Brent Rooker when it comes to a big power bat. Unfortunately, he just dislocated his ankle and is going to miss significant time due to surgery. He’ll return late this year and hopefully end on a high note.
     
    14. Jorge Alcala RHP
     
    His first full season in the Twins organization has been spent entirely at Double-A Pensacola. The 5.25 ERA isn’t good, but the FIP and xFIP numbers suggest that’s not indicative of true performance. His 9.6 K/9 is impressive, and the walks are below his career average. There’s lot of life on this fastball, and he could pop up to make a splash for the big-league club as early as this season.
     
    13. Nick Gordon INF
     
    Starting the season on the shelf Gordon has just 26 games to his credit thus far. He got out to a quick start and has continued to produce for Triple-A Rochester. The .784 OPS with an ok OBP is about what you should expect from the contact bat and speed profile Nick possesses. At this point he’s probably more 2B than shortstop, and while he may be a big league regular, it’s becoming less certain that happens here. Gordon could push for his debut later this season if he continues along this path.
     
    12. Matt Wallner OF
     
    Originating from Forest Lake, Minnesota Wallner was selected with the Twins first round compensatory pick. He’s a corner outfield bomber from Southern Mississippi that should have an advanced approach at the dish when getting to the next level. He’s played in the Cape with wood bats previously and could take a similar path to that of Trevor Larnach.
     
    11. Keoni Cavaco 3B
     
    After quickly jumping up draft boards the high schooler from California found himself going to the Twins in the top half of the first round. Announced as a SS but likely destined for the hot corner, Cavaco’s bat is going to be what carries him. He possesses an above average defensive profile at third but should continue to display pop as he further develops his frame.
     
    10. Blayne Enlow RHP
     
    Recently promoted to Fort Myers after making eight starts for Cedar Rapids this season, Enlow has turned in 18 strong innings with the Miracle. The strikeout numbers aren’t quite there yet, but he’s continued to work on both control and command. Just 20 years old, Enlow remains one of the most exciting developmental pitching prospects in the entire organization.
     
    9. Lewis Thorpe LHP
     
    Putting more distance behind his missed time, Thorpe has turned in 11 starts at Triple-A Rochester this season. While the 5.95 ERA isn’t good, he’s been much better of later. The 11.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 are beyond impressive, and if he can keep the ball in the park the numbers really pop. I’d expect a major league debut to come at some point in 2019, and he’ll have a real chance to be a difference maker being more than your traditional soft-tossing southpaw.
     
    8. Jhoan Duran RHP
     
    A model of consistency over the past two seasons, Duran has struck out 10+ per nine while walking roughly three over the course of his last 31 starts. He’s just 21 years old and can pump his fastball towards triple digits. Finishing at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2018, he’s made 10 starts for the Miracle this season. There’s an outside chance he could progress to Double-A this year. Minnesota is stockpiling some fireballing arms to be sure.
     
    7. Jordan Balazovic RHP
     
    The Canadian has seen a rise like no one in the Twins system this season. After a strong 2018 for Cedar Rapids as a 19-year-old his 2019 has only taken him to new heights. Making four starts for the Kernels before a promotion to Fort Myers, Balazovic owns a ridiculous 13.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. His 2.09 ERA is beyond impressive and the body of work spans 51 innings. He’s still so young and is going to blow by his previous career innings totals, but if he keeps this up there’s no reason to think another challenge is out of the question.
     
    6. Wander Javier SS
     
    Having made it through plenty of setbacks over the course of his early career, Javier is finally healthy and on the field for the Kernels. He’s got as good of a chance as anyone to stick at SS defensively, and this is one of the best prospects in the system. He hasn’t leapt out to a fast start at Low-A Cedar Rapids, but we’re dealing with a sample size under 15 games thus far.
     
    5. Trevor Larnach OF
     
    The 2018 first round pick was drafted for his bat and since turning pro all he’s done is hit. Making it to Cedar Rapids in his debut season, he began 2019 with High-A Fort Myers. In his first 61 games he has an .863 OPS and has displayed a very strong approach at the plate. At 22 he could be pushed with a new test getting to Pensacola in the next couple of months.
     
    4. Brent Rooker OF/1B
     
    Taken in the first round of the 2017 draft Rooker has done nothing but crushed his way through the minors as well. Now 24 and at Triple-A Rochester, he owns a .908 OPS through 35 games with seven longballs. The exact positioning at the next level is still up in the air, but this is a power bat that doesn’t have a ton of swing and miss and is going to rake anywhere he goes. A Twins debut this season isn’t beyond comprehension.
     
    3. Brusdar Graterol RHP
     
    Pitching all season at Double-A despite being just 20 years old, Graterol has been dominant in his nine starts. A 1.89 ER and 8.7 K/9 are both plenty to marvel at. He needs to hone in the command some, but for a guy who can hit 100 mph on his fastball there’s just so much to like here. Unfortunately, he’s shut down with a shoulder impingement, but the hope is that there’s no long-term damaging effects.
     
    2. Alex Kirilloff OF
     
    It took some time for Kirilloff to get healthy and into action starting 2019, and then it took a bit more time for his bat to warm up. Across his last 11 games for Double-A Pensacola however, Kirilloff owns a 1.033 OPS and has six extra base hits (two homers). He’s a great athlete who has hit in each stop across the minor leagues and expecting the numbers to climb as the season goes on is a very good bet. He’s probably missed the window for 2019 time with the Twins, but 2020 should have him more than ready.
     
    1. Royce Lewis SS
     
    Entering the season as a top 10 prospect across all the big leagues Lewis has scuffled a bit in his second tour with High-A Fort Myers. A .726 OPS in 46 games last year has been followed up by a .606 OPS in 62 contests this season. The plate discipline has worn down a bit with walks not being as plentiful. He’s also tallied less extra base hits and seen the power production take a dive. Just recently turning 20, Royce is still so young and remains and elite prospect who should stick at shortstop as he rises the ranks. It’s time for him to adjust, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t.
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    Justin Morneau addressed the throng of Minnesota Twins fans gathered at Target Field on Saturday night. There to celebrate the retirement of Joe Mauer’s jersey, it was the other half of the “M&M Boys” that offered some thoughts. Among his comments Justin noted that Joe’s favorite player growing up was Kirby Puckett. The star of yesteryear is thought fondly of, while the one currently receiving organizational praise is heavily scrutinized. It’s probably time to put down that cause and appreciate them equally.
     
    Puckett was the Willians Astudillo of decades ago. He was the short and stocky athlete that allowed every man, woman, and child to believe their major league dreams weren’t so far out of reach. Puckett didn’t toil away in the minor leagues though, as he was a man who performed admirably on the highest stage. A batting champ, 10 time All Star, six-time Gold Glove winner, and member of two World Series teams, the peak was as good as there ever was. The result was a Hall of Fame induction and years of post-playing career celebration.
     
    The parallels between the Twins hero that was and the one that was before run so deep. It’s in that reality that the need to divide the two remains so unfortunate.
     
    Twins fans will never stop wondering what Puckett’s career may have been had it not been cut short due to Glaucoma. Those same fans will never have to guess what Mauer’s career looked like after a brain injury changed his trajectory forever. One of the two saw his days on the diamond end immediately, only to be instantly celebrated with a Hall of Fame induction at the first opportunity. The other was forced to remake himself, miscast in a new role, and playing on a contract offered under different circumstances. A similar crossroads was approached, but next steps moved the two players in opposite directions.
     
    There’s certainly something to be said about achieving the ultimate goal, a World Series title in baseball. That’s not an individual accomplishment in this sport however, even with the highlight reel offerings provided during both stretches. Puckett contributed to those trophies while Joe was never presented the same opportunity. It’s probably in those accomplishments that the division begins.
     
    Whether you like analytics or not, Puckett’s career was worth a total of 44.9 fWAR, or roughly one spot higher than Mark Texeira on the all-time leaderboard. Joe Mauer topped 50 career fWAR, and while he played three more seasons, the time at first base was largely to his detriment. The most obvious parallel between these two is their injuries and how one was ended and the other was changed.
     
    We’ll get to a point in the next five years where Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy becomes a reality. Writers will need to put pen to paper, and the decision will come down to whether a catching career reminiscent of Johnny Bench is worthy of induction. He was the best in the game for roughly a decade, but following injury, played out of position and over his head in a role miscast for his skillset. Where Puckett got benefit of doubt regarding his injury, Joe will be judge because of his.
     
    It’s fair to wonder what if for Kirby. Although he was set to be 36 years old in 1996, coming of an .894 OPS season doesn’t suggest that regression was close. A first ballot inclusion likely would not have been the result, but future celebration was sure to come. The reverse narrative will need to work in Mauer’s favor, and a campaign pushed by those in Twins Territory should be what fuels that fire. Rather than continuing to debate a contract signed under different circumstances, or a personality that didn’t jump off the page, celebrating the greatness that was should be a unifying discussion.
     
    Players like Kirby and Joe don’t come along often for organizations. Even those that are the best rarely sustain that production for this type of length, and for every All-Star selection there is, very few push the envelope towards a Hall of Fame discussion. When each new ballot comes out, and there’s an opportunity for a bronzed cap to be added in the halls of Cooperstown, it should be something we all find excitement in.
     
    Joe Mauer’s favorite player was Kirby Puckett. Puck might have considered Joe one of his favorites as well. You can bet that Kirby is waiting to welcome Joe into The Hall, and its time Twins fans get on board with that movement as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    If you’ve followed me for any amount of time on Twitter, you know that I’m skeptical when it comes to the Minnesota Twins cult hero. Willians Astudillo made his MLB debut last season, and after a September explosion, fans around Twins Territory lost their collective minds. Both from a conceptual and statistical perspective he’s been a lightning rod player for me, and someone I’ve struggled to get on board with.
     
    Rather than tweeting in short bursts I thought it pertinent to organize my thoughts in a single blog post with supporting facts and use this as a point of reference. Maybe some number of months from now this will be something that you can point to as a massive miss for me. If that ends up being the case, Minnesota likely benefits, so we all win in that case.
     
    To date Astudillo has 62 games in his major league career. 29 of those games came during September 2018 in which he posted an .887 OPS. He swatted eight extra-base hits (three homers), .379 wOBA and 139 wRC+. On top of his offensive contributions, he also played six defensive positions for Minnesota. The next 33 games came to open the 2019 season, in which he posted a .630 OPS, .267 wOBA, and a 62 wRC+.
     
    As Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson alluded to me on Twitter, we’re dealing with two sample sizes spanning roughly 100 plate appearances. Generating definitive conclusions off either scenario is not entirely fair, but I’m attempting to tie feelings into statistical output. Without being completely dismissive of those 97 September plate appearances, they took place during the most watered-down portion of the big-league schedule. His slump or injury has been credited with the slide in 2019, but the reality is that aside from his first three games (6-for-9), he owns a .537 OPS across 110 plate appearances.
     
    My belief is that Astudillo must entirely shift his approach at the plate in order to see sustained big-league success. Astudillo saw 2.93 P/PA this season, the lowest in baseball, with the next closest being the Angels Andrelton Simmons (3.03). It’s not that swinging early and often isn’t a viable process, it’s the way in which Astudillo uses it that’s the problem.
     
    Minnesota’s utility man owned just a 28.8% hard hit rate this season (31.9% in 2018) and puts the ball on the ground 40% of the time. He also popped up on one-fifth of his batted balls. With as much swinging as Astudillo does, while avoiding strikeouts and walks, it’s not a surprise he has a 95% contact rate. Unfortunately, he also has chased 47% of the time (40% in 2018). The summary of his plate discipline and approach is a guy who doesn’t hit the ball hard, puts it on the ground, and isn’t fast enough to make a difference.
     
    If there’s going to be a successful career ahead with the Twins or elsewhere, something must give for Astudillo. He’s done this swing early, avoid strikeouts, and don’t walk for the entirety of his pro career. A pop-up season in the PCL saw a strong OPS, but his minor league OPS is .759. There’s some pop in the bat, but he doesn’t work counts enough to find good pitches. Major league hurlers make him eat out of their hand, and he obliges regularly. This profile is the exact representation of why strikeouts aren’t bad and are arguably worse than any other out.
     
    I touched on a guy who isn’t patient earlier. The Angels Simba swings often too, but he’s become a strong hitter (for average) with a hard-hit rate in the upper 30’s. The ground ball rate isn’t good (and it’s why his SLG will never be favorable), but he only chases pitches out of the zone roughly 30% of the time. Not a slugger by any means, Simmons finds a strike and attacks it while Astudillo attacks almost any pitch thrown his way.
     
    The greatest asset Astudillo provided Minnesota in the early going this year was that he had positional flexibility. He’s able to stand almost anywhere on the diamond but grades out as roughly average at all those places. Lacking a standout defensive skill, and currently employing an approach not conducive to big league success, there’s an uphill battle ahead of him.
     
    It’s great when players like this excite a fanbase or represent a polarizing figure in the clubhouse. What’s worth keeping in perspective, however, is that there’s still a game being played between the lines and casting aside reality, or the merits of other players is something that will only make the letdown that much more difficult. Here’s to hoping an overhaul can be made during his stint on the farm. The more contributors Rocco Baldelli has, the better.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    The year was 2017 and the month was August. Byron Buxton had just been shelved since mid-July, entered with a .604 OPS, and was ready to get back on the field. The Minnesota Twins needed a jolt to push towards the playoffs and man did his month of August provide it. A .973 OPS across 29 games ended up vaulting him onto the national scene and he was rewarded with an 18th place finish in the American League MVP voting. Fast forward to 2019 and we’re watching it happen again.
     
    Right now, Buxton doesn’t own a .973 OPS, and no 29-game sample size has jumped off the page quite like that final month of summer did. However, it’s what Byron Buxton has done this season that is getting deserved recognition across the sport. He isn’t going to win an MVP award because Mike Trout exists, but behind arguably the greatest player to ever step on the diamond, Buxton is currently the second-best centerfielder in the game.
     
    On May 13th Buxton had played 37 games for the Twins and his 17 doubles led all of baseball. He had just one homer, but his .275 average and .806 OPS were plenty promising. This date is significant as it was then that I offered the following thoughts on Twitter:
     

     
    We’re now roughly a month out from that Tweet, and things have gone as expected. Buxton’s hard-hit rate since that date is 38.6%. He has jumped the 2% HR/FB rate all the way up to 25% and has six dingers. He still leads the American League with 21 doubles (trailing only Josh Bell’s 25 across baseball), but the longball is now being incorporated back into his game. I have long believed Buxton won’t hit for average as much as he’ll combine to hit for power. If the .270 sticks, so be it, but the .500+ SLG is exactly what I’d like to see.
     
    You already know about the defensive acumen. Buxton leads baseball in Outs Above Average (10) and Actual Catch Percentage (94%). His 9 DRS is third in the big leagues, and his UZR is also off the charts. It’s fair to suggest that, when healthy, he’s the most dynamic player on defense that the sport currently employs.
     
    What is great, and maybe less known, is that the offensive outburst looks sustainable. He’s decreased his chase and whiff rates. His contact rate is a career high, and the hard-hit rate is a substantial improvement. The ball is on the ground nearly 10% less than career averages, and he’s not just trying to beat out ground balls as has been previously suggested to him. This is a good hitter that allowing his tools to work and is creating absolute nightmares for opposing pitchers because of it.
     
    It really doesn’t matter where he hits in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. I’ve talked about moving him up previously, and something like 6th or 7th seems to make sense. Even if he stays in the 9-hole though, this is a guy that’s settled in and finally comfortable showing off the ability that has been there all along.
     
    While he won’t win the MVP award, he’s a top 10 candidate at this point in the season, and even that may be a bit too light.
  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins acquired Jake Odorizzi in exchange for Jermaine Palacios. At the time, Palacios was a second or third tier prospect that had some internal fanfare. Swapping him for a big-league starter was a no-brainer though. Jake’s first season with the Twins was mostly mediocre, but there was reason to believe he was better than the numbers.
     
    Across 32 starts a season ago Odorizzi owned a 4.49 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and a 3.8 BB/9. He dropped his home run rate significantly, and while the WHIP was a career worst, a 4.20 FIP suggested a bit more was in the tank. Fast forward to where we are today and Odorizzi owns a league best 1.96 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. His 226 ERA+ leads the league and he has all the makings of a Cy Young candidate.
     
    In terms of increased production, nothing has substantially jumped off the page. The step forward has been the culmination of tweaks made across the board. Jake now owns a strikeout rate of 28%, a 6% increase over his 2018 mark. The walks are down while both the homers and hits have tailed off as well. If there’s something substantial to note, it’s the incredible 83.6% strand rate.
     
    Batted ball profiles suggest that hitters are producing the same type of contact against the former Rays starter. Hard hit rates are static over the past two years, and trajectories are also all in line. The difference in induced contact likely comes in the form of velocity and offering. Odorizzi has added 2 mph to his average fastball, and the 11% curveball usage is over double the rate that it’s been since any point following 2013.
     
    You’d have been hard pressed to see comments with a positive tone regarding many of Odorizzi’s starts a season ago. Despite the mediocre results, and a bit better in terms of peripherals, there wasn’t much excitement about the possibility of a 2019 rebound. Today we’re in a place that Odorizzi is often looked upon as a certainty when toeing the rubber, and the results have followed. It’s hard not to be happy about the reality that the changes haven’t been dramatic.
     
    If there’s an extension candidate in the Twins rotation, then Odorizzi is it. Still just 29 years old, he should have more than a few years of high-level production still ahead of him. Knowing Minnesota has a few rotation holes to fill for the year ahead, Odorizzi slotting in as one of the guarantees would be a welcomed presence. Unfortunately, by waiting through this season Minnesota will have to deal with an inflated price tag. At the end of the day though, the Twins aren’t hurting for cash flow and wrapping up a starter this good is something they should jump at.
     
    Derek Falvey and Wes Johnson have helped to overhaul the Twins pitching process, and the infrastructure set up throughout the system makes it a sustainable solution for years to come.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
     
    There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
     
    Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
     
    Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
    The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
     
    Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
     
    At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the offseason a consistent narrative from the Minnesota Twins front office was one of patience. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consistently suggested that many of the near-future decisions would hinge on the production of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Back in early February I wondered if that reality didn’t make Sano and Buxton out to be scapegoats. Fortunately for all parties involved, one half of the duo has forced the hand of the Front Office.
     
    Through the first 39 games Minnesota has 25 wins, is leading the AL Central, and owns the best record in all of baseball. This team is hitting a ridiculous amount of home runs, the starting pitching has been exceptional, and the bullpen has been far better than expected. Looking at the two-headed monster discussed from the outset, Byron Buxton owns an .816 OPS while being arguably the best defender in the game, and Miguel Sano is yet to step on the field.
     
    Following the publishing of that February piece one large move was made that both addressed some payroll concerns, as well as adding significant talent to the roster. Marwin Gonzalez was inked to a two-year pact for $21 million. As arguably the best super-utility player in baseball, he provided a level of insurance against slumps and injuries all over the field. Called upon to start at third base from the get-go with Sano’s injury, he’ll now slot back into a versatile role once Miguel is activated later this week.
     
    In fact, it’s the return of Sano that brings up this talking point sooner than the July 31st trade deadline. All we know about the Dominican slugger at this point is that he showed up to Spring Training in a shape reflective of a commitment level not yet seen from him. Despite an injury delaying his debut, he put up solid numbers in a very small rehab sample size. He also has a profile that fits in nicely with what this team is attempting to accomplish when he is right.
     
    Looking for a floor, Miguel Sano is the hitter who owned a .679 OPS a season ago. There’s a ton of power, way too many swings and misses, along with some questionable-at-best defense over at the hot corner. His ceiling looks something like the 2015 version where he posted a .916 OPS across 80 games and showed both plate discipline as well as prowess. A reality lying somewhere in the middle, lots of home runs, a good number of walks, and a handful of swings and misses, would be an optimal outcome for Rocco Baldelli to dispose.
     
    For the Twins, Byron Buxton already is that. He hasn’t flashed his peak, but he’s also nowhere near his floor. Performing at the level he is now, serious consideration for some personal accolades could be given, and he’s doing it within the structure of a team capable of making a run. For Falvey and Levine, the two linchpins of the equation are now forcing them to re-evaluate.
     
    There’s no denying that the window is just beginning to open in Twins Territory. The division should remain down for some time, the farm system is among the best in baseball, and the big-league club has talent capable of high production for the next three to five years. Supplementing this team, and the ones that come after it is now a must, and it’s this front office that I’d pick to have in charge.
     
    With the focus being put on Buxton and Sano, Falvey and Levine effectively said when we win, we’ll go to work. Knowing that this team has holes but is capable of more, there’s reason to believe additions prior to the July 31st deadline make a ton of sense. A bigger price tag may come with the earlier acquisition cost, but for a team looking to add in 2019 and beyond, reinforcements should be of the long-term view as well. Whether under team control into 2020 and beyond, or free agent deals with multiple years, commitment and buy in is where moves need to lean.
     
    It’s not time to push Falvey and Levine on execution just yet, we haven’t even hit mid-May. If we’re through min-June before this club is adding additional talent though, they’ll have suggested a wait and see approach only to close their eyes. I don’t foresee that result taking place, and if trade returns like that of Brian Dozier or Jermaine Palacios are any indication, the duo at the top for Minnesota should be trusted with full authority.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    Coming off a week in which the Minnesota Twins faced a schedule akin to death itself, we can’t describe a 4-3 record as anything short of exceptional. The Houston Astros look the part of a World Series champion, and while the New York Yankees aren’t close to full strength, they’re holding serve in the AL East. For Rocco Baldelli’s club, there’s plenty of positive momentum, and rather than focus on one specific area, now seemed like a good time to highlight some standouts.
     
    Byron Buxton is currently cruising. He has 14 doubles which is the amount of hits he tallied in total during 2018. Offensively he’s posted an .805 OPS which is well north of the average among big league centerfielders, and he’s pacing the defensive leaderboards. Buxton is first in outs above average, is the only player with two completed five star catches and has accumulated 3 DRS across just 247 innings. Without a significant dip taking place over the course of a full season, this is production that will have him earning MVP votes.
     
    For some reason there was some concern about Nelson Cruz in the early going. With the layout of Minnesota’s schedule, and early interleague play, he missed plenty of at bats to get going. Now 28 games into his season, he owns a .972 OPS (best mark since 2008) and is on pace for 35 homers. Also sitting fourth in average exit velocity among big league hitters, the boomstick is just fine.
     
    The roster continues to be paced by two players at some of the most important positions. Jorge Polanco leads the club in fWAR, while Jose Berrios is tops for pitchers. Polanco’s bat has played exceptionally well, which has always been expected. The .393 wOBA is just outside the top 20 in baseball, but the best part is the peripheral numbers suggest a level of sustainability. Add in that Polanco is now providing plus value at short, and you’ve got a strong asset. Berrios has turned from staff ace into a bonafide big deal. Command has been ramped up a notch halving his walk rate, and the WHIP is beyond fantastic. If Jose wants to push even higher, limiting the longball is maybe the last piece of the puzzle.
     
    You may not find a bigger believer in the Twins blogosphere when it comes to Mitch Garver. His offensive profile has long looked the part of a big leaguer. As a receiver and defender behind the plate, there’s been concerns as to whether the position would be a long-term fit. Although not yet above average, he’s upped his strike rate over 4% this season. Mitch has also developed a much stronger presence at the bottom and edges of the zone, while addressing his blocking ability in a big way. Right now, it seems fair to wonder about his fit as the long-term solution.
     
    I recently wrote about Martin Perez and the development of his cutter. He introduced a new offering into his repertoire and now looks like an entirely new pitcher. Minnesota targeted him based on the feeling that his stuff could be tweaked to unleash ability yet to be harnessed and there’s no denying that the front office looks spot on in that thinking.
     
    There are still some question marks in the bullpen, but the trio of Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, and Blake Parker looks to be a good one. Trevor May continues to settle into a higher leverage role and Ryne Harper appears to be a diamond in the rough. If acquisitions are yet to be made, it’s here that the most obvious avenue for an upgrade is. Give some credit to Baldelli in the way he’s managed this group as well. Despite more length from his starters, initial burnout could be attributed in some degree to his deployment of the arms. In backing off and being more strategic, there’s been no instances of taxed throwers during a consistent stretch of action.
     
    Looking at the schedule, the Twins have played a lot of good teams early. With so much action within the division still ahead of them, and some less than ideal road destinations out of the way, the remaining action tilts in their favor. Leading the AL Central at the end of April won’t vault Minnesota to the Postseason, but it keeps that possibility centrally focused ahead of them. This team is good, and I felt like I was out on a limb suggesting 92 wins. At this point, coming up shy of that would probably be a disappointment.
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    It’s long been a thing in baseball that struggling or failed starting pitchers could simply head out to the bullpen and find another path to success. From the short burst outings, to avoiding multiple lineup turns, and even decreasing the total pitch mitch, it’s a whole different recipe beyond the outfield wall. Adalberto Mejia was thrust into this role for 2019, but it doesn’t appear to be going as smoothly as Minnesota may have hoped.
     
    Let me start out by saying that we’re still dealing with a small sample size. Only 27 games have been played, and with the Twins housed in the Midwest, weather has been the enemy more often than it hasn’t. There’s reason to believe that the Dominican native could settle in as the weather warms up, but the flip side of that argument is in the benefit provided to the hitter and batted baseball in those same circumstances. While not dismissing and of these realities, looking at the generated inputs is a must.
     
    Prior to 2019 Mejia had operated solely as a starter for Minnesota. With a full rotation for Rocco Baldelli’s squad, the out of options lefty got moved to the bullpen. There was never any indication that this was a more logical path to success as it was a necessity to get all the pieces on the 25-man roster to coexist. Now that we have some actionable data to work with, we can start to make some comments regarding how the transition is working out.
     
    Through 11.1 IP Mejia owns an ugly 8.74 ERA having given up earned runs in four of his 11 outings. On three of those occasions, the damage has been in the form of a crooked number. As expected, the velocity and strikeout rates have spiked a bit in short bursts, but the greatest problem has been a complete lack of command. He’s sporting a 7.1 BB/9 and an 11/9 K/BB ratio. Adding in the 8.7 H/9 and a HR/9 rate nearing 2.0 only helps to complete a recipe for disaster.
     
    Typically, the thought process of moving a starter to relief would be in the hope that a smaller repertoire and enhanced velocity would provide a two-headed approach towards a more effective arm. Mejia has jumped his velocity, but only minimally. Averaging 93.8 mph he’s up one mph on his number from 2018, but there’s an argument to be made that more is in the tank once the weather warms up. Maximizing effectiveness in his offerings though, the pitch mix is far from specialized.
     
    Utilizing the same repertoire as when he was starting, Mejia throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and has lightly mixed in a curveball. The four main offerings are all utilized at a relatively high clip, and the greatest change this season has been in muting the traditional fastball while turning to the changeup more often. The lack of specialization, however, is indicative of a guy without a true out pitch. There isn’t enough velocity on the fastball to make it a plus pitch, and just a 9% whiff rate doesn’t scream that any other offering is missing bats either.
     
    If you could construct Mejia in the model that Minnesota would like to see, it’d be a lefty that is able to generate power from his size into his fastball. Pairing that one pitch with an off-speed slider or changeup would allow him to effectively keep opponents off balance. Just 2.8% of Adalberto’s fastballs have been whiffed on, with sliders generating a 3.7% whiff rate. That’s far too much contact allowed from a relief pitcher often tasked with keeping opportunities at bay. Add in that you’re giving out free passes at an alarming clip, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
     
    At this point the Twins are getting closer to a point in which they’ll need to decide. It’s unfortunate to lose out on starting pitching talent, and there’s reason to believe that Mejia could bolster the back of a rotation. At almost 26 though, we’re getting to the point that there needs to be more of a plan than just reliance on stuff. He can’t go down without passing through waivers, so unless a flip-flop is being made with Martin Perez in the starting five now, continuing to employ him in the bullpen looks like a losing proposition.
     
    As good as Taylor Rogers is, having him be your sole lefty in relief is probably not a path you’d choose to go down. Jake Reed deserves a shot in Minnesota but is of the wrong-handedness for this discussion. Right now, that leaves one of Andrew Vasquez or Gabriel Moya. Both of those guys could certainly take their lumps but investing in them as long-term relief solutions seems to be a better idea than fitting this square peg in a round hole.
     
    We can wait another couple of weeks to see if warmth is able to correct any of Adalberto Mejia’s situation, but right now it looks to be larger than something the mercury can correct.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the course of the past decade the Minnesota Twins have shown some scouting prowess in their findings down under. From the early stories of Peter Moylan and Liam Hendriks, to a recent hat tip pointed at James Beresford, Australia has produced big leagues in a Twins uniform. Although Todd Van Steensel displayed some nice minor league numbers, he got to Minnesota by way of the St. Paul Saints. The system still has more talent from down under, and one could be on his way north soon.
     
    Lewis Thorpe has worked four times in 2019 for Triple-A Rochester. After two very bad outings against the same Lehigh Valley club to start the year, he’s settled in as the pitcher that previously appeared on top 100 prospect lists. Thorpe’s last two outings have seen him work 13.2 IP with a 1.98 ERA and .497 OPS against. He’s fanned 24 batters and walked just one. To call his work dominant would be putting it lightly.
     
    As a lefty, Thorpe isn’t the traditional soft-tossing type. This is a guy who can blow the fastball by professional hitters, and his career 10.9 K/9 is plenty indicative of that reality. Since returning from both Tommy John surgery, and then mononucleosis, Lewis has picked up right where he left off. His walk rate hovers around 3.0 BB/9 which is probably a bit higher than you’d like but combatting that with solid hit and strikeout rates make for a strong profile.
     
    To date Thorpe has just eight career starts at the Triple-A level. At just 23 years-old, that’s plenty impressive, but it’s also not a seasoned amount that reflects an immediate need for a promotion. Given the volatility at the back end of a starting rotation, we know that a need will arise in Minnesota sooner rather than later. Long term the Twins would like to see Thorpe come up and stick, but a spot start or something to get his feet wet could soon be on the horizon.
     
    Over the past year we’ve seen Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, and Stephen Gonsalves all make their debuts for the Twins. Thorpe trends more heavily towards the highly-touted prospect that Gonsalves resembles and could be handled in a similar fashion. That would mean he’d be destined for a later season role in which he’d stick long term. If the current level of production remains though, it’d be plenty logical for Rocco Baldelli to run him out on a day he simply needs a starter.
     
    Back in February I opined that Thorpe was the guy to watch this season. He’s done very little to pump the brakes on that notion and making it a reality in the immediate future continues to become something to keep an eye on.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    We’re only 20 games into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, but Jorge Polanco is currently the fifth most valuable hitter in baseball by fWAR standards. The Twins shortstop has a cycle to his credit, nearly paired that with another, and has been on an absolute tear out of the gate. For a guy who was always expected to be carried by his bat, the production isn’t that surprising, but the level in which he’s producing is a bit shocking to say the least.
     
    Coming up through the Twins system, there was plenty of questions regarding where Polanco would play. He had the athleticism and quickness for shortstop, but his arm strength and glove work left some to be desired at such an important role. Starting out in the organization as a 16-year-old, he bounced between the middle infield and some brief outfield work until 2014. Getting in 117 starts at short between High-A and Double-A that year, it looked like he’d found his home. Then 2016 happened. After playing 64 games for Triple-A Rochester at second, he was promoted to the big leagues as the regular shortstop. It didn’t go well.
     
    During his first full time experience with the Twins, Polanco turned in a -8 DRS and -9.8 UZR in just over 400 innings at short. From there, he’s worked incredibly hard to make that a thing of the past. North of 1,100 innings in 2017 saw just a -1 DRS, and in a suspension shortened 664 innings last year, that -1 number was replicated. Working with the small sample size of 162 innings in 2019, Polanco owns his first positive DRS tally of his career.
    We’re here for the sexy part of this story though, and everyone knows that’s offense. Minnesota’s shortstop owns a .392/.452/.716 slash line and his .478 wOBA is 6th among qualified hitters in all of baseball. Sure, the sample size here is equally small, but there’s less than five players going better offensively than Jorge Polanco is right now.
     
    It’s painfully obvious how nice the production is, but the real questions are how, and will it continue? Jorge currently owns a 42.9% hard hit rate which is easily a career high and is 14% higher than his career average. He’s also elevating the ball more, combining to get it off the ground over 80% of the time. That’s helped to not only produce extra base hits but has him looking at a career best 12.5% HR/FB ratio.
     
    Like many of his teammates, Polanco’s swing chart hasn’t changed too drastically. He’s up slightly in his swinging strike rate, but chase rates and swing percentages are all along career norms. If there’s an outlier, it’s that Polanco has increased his contact percentage by about 7%. Aggressiveness and ambushing opposing pitchers is a blueprint that this Rocco Baldelli team has bought into, however. Minnesota has the lowest pitches per plate appearance tally in baseball, seeing just 3.68 on average.
     
    As the season goes on, Polanco’s greatest adjustment will be like one many in this lineup will see. If their current attack focuses on jumping early, they’ll need to make sure pitches still warrant swinging at. With opposing pitchers looking for soft contact and to generate more swinging strikes, they’ll likely need to work down in the zone, or serve up fewer enticing offerings altogether. If Polanco can keep honed into an eye allowing him a career best 9.5% walk rate, he should be able to discern what is being wasted on him early in counts.
     
    There’s no reason to believe that Jorge Polanco, or any hitter in today’s game, is going to hit remotely close to .400 over the course of a season. From a batted ball profile though, hitting the ball harder, higher, earlier, and on better offerings is a recipe destined for success. We’ll see regression, but the only question is whether that trends towards a more stable level, or just average career norms. Right now, I’d bank on that being closer to the former than the latter.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    It’s April 24 and the Minnesota Twins have played 21 games during the 2019 Major League Baseball season. In that time, left fielder Eddie Rosario has taken the American League by storm being a co-owner of the home run lead, and he’s spearheading an offensive outburst not generally seen around these parts. It wasn’t long ago that Rosario looked the part of an All Star, but where is all of this coming from?
     
    Through 21 games, Rosario has already tallied ten dingers on the season. That puts him on pace for over 70 on the season, and it’s the fastest any player in Twins history has ever reached double-digits. When you’ve got that much power production this quickly it becomes hard to fly under the radar. At the 2018 All Star break Twins fans saw Rosario own a .311/.353/.537 slash line with 19 homers however, and that story didn’t have an entirely great ending. Figuring out how this may be different is key for the continued success of the budding star.
     
    After racing out to gaudy numbers in 2018, Rosario finished the season owning just a .622 OPS in his final 45 games and sending another five balls out of the park. His year ended in the middle of September and the tale of the first half seemed like a distant memory. Fast forward to today and we’re once again in the midst of a hot start. The .274/.315/.679 slash line is a pretty one, but there’s a couple of inputs to the batted ball profile that should make us smile.
     
    As a free swing who tends to expand the zone, and rarely take walks, we need to view Rosario’s approach through a different lens. He’s chased 42% of the time in 2019 and whiffed on 11% of pitches. Neither of those occurrences are beyond career norms, and his 79% contact rate is a new high. When making contact in the zone, he’s doing so at nearly 90%, essentially daring opponents to throw strikes. It isn’t where he’s swinging though, as much as it is how he’s making contact.
     
    On the season Rosario owns a career best 39.7% hard hit rate. This is a 3% improvement from 2018 and is a 7% jump from his career average. On batted balls, only 39% are being hit on the ground with 50% being fly balls and 10.3% being line drives. Elevating the ball is certainly a positive trend, and it’s a direct reflection of a significant launch angle increase. On base hits during 2018, Rosario had an average launch angle of just 13.5 degrees. This season, that number is all the way up to 22.3 degrees.
     
    From a spray perspective, you could call Rosie the left handed Brian Dozier. All the way up to a 52.9% pull rate, all but one of Eddie’s home runs have been hit to the right side of centerfield. The concentration on power was strong that way in 2018 as well, but the final pull percentage landed at 43.4%. This isn’t to say that Rosario won’t find success going the other way as pitcher’s attack him more on the outside. What we can see immediately is that Eddie is putting strong swings on balls he can yank to his strong side.
     
    For now, we’re dealing with a small sample size. Knowing how much action is left this season, we’ll have plenty of time for this to all normalize. The early season power surge is reflective of a guy getting more loft while hitting the ball significantly harder. That’s a straightforward path to these types of results, but it’s comforting to note that the results aren’t coming with the caveat of an approach that has changed in any negative or impactful way.
     
    Lost in all this offensive narrative is that Rosario has regained a focus in the outfield that rounds himself into something special. Putting up six defensive runs saved through his first 165 innings, and notching four outfield assists in the early going, he’s again a guy you don’t want to test in the grass either.
     
    I’d be willing to bet any sum of money that Rosario won’t wind up with 70 home runs in 2019. He’s not going to hit 10 every 20 games, and there will be a month or weeks in which he experiences a real slump. For a guy that looked to display his absolute ceiling a season ago however, it’s comforting to see that even if that may be the height of things, the floor is a pretty darn good player as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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