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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    There’s both good and bad to come in the next couple of days. As has always been my stance, we’re going to see baseball in 2020. The flip side to that is Rob Manfred will impose a bastardized version thanks to the efforts of owners wanting to crush the sport. There has to be some silver lining though right?
     
    Co-director of the IBWAA, Daniel Epstein, did a masterful job of breaking down Major League Baseball’s recent letter and detailing why the negotiations have been nothing short of a steaming pile of dog poop. Because of that reality, the owners will get what they’ve wanted since the get go here, less baseball. In playing a shorter regular season the financial commitments are at the least amount, while Postseason opportunity allows for the largest revenue stream.
     

     
    As fans, it’s going to be hard to stomach a 50-something game sprint. The Twins hit 307 home runs to set a Major League record in 2019. That’s a gaudy number to look at and is nothing short of eye popping. Dialing that pace back to 50 games, you’re looking at a tally in the 90’s, or something close to the total between two longball leaders.
     
    From a statistical perspective viewing this exercise through any normal lens is going to be a very tough sell. Baseball breathes life year-round because of the historical and numerical importance carried within the game. It’s one thing to argue the validity between a 150 and 160 game season but chopping off triple digits makes this an extreme outlier no matter how you dissect it.
     
    We are going to have baseball, but make no mistake, this won’t be Major League Baseball in any sense of the suggestion. Rather than allowing for the nuance and leveling off that occurs over the course of a traditional 162 game marathon, it will be a sprint on a daily basis. Instead of winning a series and settling for a split in the next one, it will be a game of sweeps and a nightly pedal to the metal.
     
    If we can separate what baseball is, and what this will be, there could be some level of enhanced excitement to it. The one game Wild Card is often torn down because of the length it takes to achieve that opportunity, and then how quickly it is taken away. There’s no denying the level of excitement or pressure placed on those nine innings however, and now we’ll get a version of that for the entirety of the action.
     
    Decisions made by clubs will need to be reflective of opportunity within the next 24 hours as opposed to the next couple of weeks. Teams will need to manage in an attempt to thwart off divisional foes even a game behind right from the word go. In what will likely feel akin to the World Baseball Classic style of play, single game importance is set to be in a place we’ll have never experience during a regular season.
     
    It’s truly unfortunate that a global pandemic was used to further the agenda of billionaire owners. We as fans lose the opportunity to cheer for our teams, and experience anything resembling the sport in its intended set of parameters. If we’re going to do this hack job of a year though, we might as well try to start finding rainbows through the storm.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    We’re now past the point of Major League Baseball earning favor with fans upon its return. The expectation remains that there will be a 2020 season, but it’s looking more likely that it will be a mandated one as opposed to an agreed upon conclusion.
     
    With the latest proposal from ownership across Major League Baseball, the Players Association has been presented another deal that changes wording and says virtually the same thing. Despite an agreement from March regarding full prorated salaries, the billionaire owners are looking for further concessions to stifle the losses they aren’t willing to substantiate.
     

     
    Because of where we are in negotiations, and what is currently being proposed, a July 4th start date is no longer in play. The league has now moved to July 10, and a 76-game season is what they are suggesting. In reality though, the goal of ownership is to draw these discussions out for as long as necessary. That conclusion ends with a league mandated season in the 50-game territory. Prorated pay will then be granted to players, but only for just under one-third of their agreed upon salary.
     
    In short, these two sides are so dug in against each other that ownership is willing to do nothing and allow the mediator the opportunity to make the deal.
     
    There’s certainly reason to be frustrated as fans here. After all, it’s the consumer of the sport that ultimately loses the most. Players are dealing with precedence, and with this situation playing out just a year prior to CBA expiration it’s understandable wanting to avoid exploitation. Owners are in turn using a global pandemic to stick those CBA negotiation tactics in high gear, and despite having no public record of revenues ever, are now wanting the same public to believe in massive losses.
     
    At the end of the day we’re being strung along on a roller coaster ride with the intended result tracking right towards where ownership groups want it. They’ll be able to claim the Union failed to come to an agreement, despite having never changed or offered a more logical proposal. Major League Baseball’s commissioner can be pointed as the scapegoat having to enact a mandated season, but ultimately, it’s his responsibility to drive labor peace.
     
    Timing for a work stoppage in terms of sport will never be ideal. For Twins fans right now though, we’re losing out on what should be peak years of a World Series caliber club. The uncertainty of what lies ahead, and the competition being skewed with an ever-changing landscape of play is unfortunate at best. On a national scale we lose out on the midst of Mike Trout’s prime, or the final chases of Albert Pujols’ career. No winners can be crowned in all of this, only losers, and it’s yet to be determined who loses most.
     
    Baseball is a sport of passion, and fans are entrenched in the record book and favor of the teams they support. The fallout left by what started as an uncontrollable negative and turned into a self-destructive blaze will be something present for many years to come. Baseball could have been so much different in 2020. It still can take place, but it will never be under the circumstances that were once there for the taking.
     
    Sorry MLB, this time you failed, big.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Here we are again, another critical week in terms of baseball resuming for a 2020 season. The MLB owners sent their non-starter of a proposal to the players, and the players have responded with what ownership describes identically. We need to bridge that gap, and quickly, but if we do what is it all going to look like?
     
    There’s a couple of assumed certainties already in play that, regardless of where all of the chips fall, these thing should take place in some form or fashion.
     
    Universal DH
     
    While it’s long been suggested that the National League brings about a higher level of strategy in having to deal with an incapable batter, the universal DH makes too much sense. It creates 15 more jobs, a better market in free agency for the position, and relieves fans from having to watch a pitcher flail away before becoming an assumed automatic out.
     
    The Twins are well positioned here with Nelson Cruz, and they’ve got a host of other candidates that could cycle through for reps as well. This is going to happen in 2020 if there’s baseball, and it’s likely to be adopted by the new CBA as well.
     
    Season Length
     
    The most economical strategy would be to play more games. However, owners get relief from player salaries should the season be shortened. Ownership proposed an 80-game schedule while the players went with a more aggressive 114 game approach. The former allows for somewhat of a resumption situation while the latter would have teams playing into October with a later Postseason.
     
    At this point it’s expected we see teams play in their home stadiums. There won’t be any fans and the schedules will likely be shuffled to include a significantly higher portion of regional contests. At this point, I don’t believe we’ll see any division re-alignment.
     
    Expanded Postseason
     
    This has been proposed by both sides, and the players took it a step further to suggest doing so in each of the next two seasons. The Postseason is where owners rake in the largest revenues, and this would allow more teams and longer coverage. Players are also talking about competing in these games during November, which would likely mean more neutral site contests in warm weather cities.
     
    Baseball’s schedule being 162 games allows for it to be the ultimate marathon prior to the Postseason. Although the one-game Wild Card is a point of contention, it places a premium on winning your Division. In more of a sprint schedule, it makes sense to open things up a bit and allow the cream of the crop to rise up.
     
    Large Taxi Squads
     
    There’s little reason to expect anything but minor league baseball to be banged this season. The logistics alone are cumbersome, and then there’s the reality that Commissioner Rob Manfred is trying to downsize. Teams are going to have expanded rosters, and then there will be some sort of ready-and-waiting guys capable of taking over.
    Organizations could run intrasquad contests at their Spring Training sites, and there may be an opportunity to have a group of players travel near the team. Minnesota’s closest affiliate is Cedar Rapids, but who knows if that will have a factor on future decisions.
     
    At the end of the day I think what we’ll have to remember about Major League Baseball in 2020 is that you still have to catch and hit the ball. The logistics and optics of the game will likely be drastically altered. In a sport tied so tightly to its record book, we’ll have questions about how they all stack up for years to come. Should a World Series happen, and a winner be crowned however, they’ll have taken the trophy on the same uncertain playing field everyone else is dealing with.
     
    Let’s just hope we’ve got a season to worry about. Buckle up.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    No matter how far we distance ourselves from Covid-19, 2020, and the ripple effects of a worldwide pandemic, I’ll remember a couple of specific dates as they relate to baseball. Tuesday May 26, 2020 could end up being another one of those days. In the midst of Memorial Day we wonder what lies ahead tomorrow.
     
    Thinking back to March 11, the sports world began to stand still. That day the NBA put everything on hold, and less than 24 hours later not only was the MLB season halted, but also March Madness was put on ice as well. We’re now multiple months away from that date, but a return appears on the horizon.
     
    After Major League Baseball owners attempted to go back on their word in regards to prorated player salaries for whatever season that would take place, and do so in a public attempt at employee shame, we’ve got an impending alteration. It’s expected that Tuesday May 26 will bring forth a new proposal from ownership. Players will be expected to move off prorated salaries, but owners will budge on a revenue split that looks very much like a salary cap.
     
    Although it’s the economics of each deal that continues to be at the forefront of any reports the largest hurdle remains that of health precautions. With no level of certainty regarding what’s next in the wrath of this specific pandemic we can be certain that whatever transpires will be a massive outlier. Everything about sports, and life in general, during the current landscape of precaution will remain an oddity for years into the future.
     
    It’s hard to believe, and the growing consensus aligns here, that baseball will not return for this calendar season. Everyone has far too much to gain from resumption, and squabbling would set ablaze and unfortunate fallout in regards to the bigger picture. With potential for a CBA-induced lockout just a year from now, setting back the sport even further ahead of time could be a death knell when popularity enhancement has long been the drive.
     
    Rob Manfred has done a lot of negative during his time as commission of Major League Baseball. Tuesday May 26, 2020 has the opportunity to go a long ways in presenting a launching pad for a restart of a sport that both the country and world need.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Back in April I wrote an article at Twins Daily about how the Stay at Home orders all but forced creativity upon baseball. The Twins Trevor May architected an MLB The Show Players League and by the end we had matchups on ESPN. With classic games being televised left and right, it was the initiative today that caught my eye.
    Here’s the thing, classic games are awesome, but it’s a slog for many to get through countless hours of a known outcome. Speaking specifically about myself here, it’s exactly the reason I’m not fond of re-watching movies, no matter how good they are. Committing a substantial amount of time only to know the end result isn’t an opportunity I jump at.
     
    On Opening Day, or what was supposed to be such, I tuned into Periscope to watch the Twins and Tigers game 163. It was a blast being there for that game, and it was probably the first time I’ve re-watched it since. The desire for action was significant given the removal of baseball on the day it was supposed to start. Fast forward to where we are today, and I haven’t watched a single re-run since. I stayed up for KBO Opening Day action, and I got all in on the Players League. Outside of that, it’s been pretty desolate on the sports front.
     

     
    Then there was a tweet from Ken Rosenthal that reminded me MLB.com was streaming non-stop coverage of some of baseball’s greatest half innings. One event for each of the 30 teams, hours of content, but broken up into just minutes of the best action. If this concept sounds familiar it’s because that’s exactly what the NFL has done in monetizing the Red Zone Channel. By cutting to action only in the biggest situations, fans are constantly kept abreast of the most exciting parts of a game.
     
    Rob Manfred has stumbled over his own shoelaces constantly when it comes to thinking of ways to draw in new fans. Thinking that pace of play is a substantial deterrent, or that pitchers facing a minimum number of batters, or even that a timer to speed up aspects are the answer, he continues to miss the mark. The product right now may be the best it’s ever been, but the accessibility of that product remains a massive hurdle.
     
    Games are blacked out even on the league owned streaming service. Players are not widely accessible across all markets, and promotion of the game is often done better by anyone not directly affiliated with the sport (who then immediately face copyright claims). This little endeavor on a random Wednesday afternoon could have unlocked something big though.
     
    Imagine an avenue to watch any game going on with runners in scoring position, the bottom of the ninth, or a late inning comeback. You’d consistently see new and emerging stars on the greatest stage, and you’d do it while introducing those players to fans that otherwise may not have watched that team. It would be a way to consume baseball in conjunction with your own team, and something fans would see as a significantly less daunting commitment. As a Twins fan I’m not watching an entire game between the Marlins and Pirates, but I’d love to see Brian Anderson with a late game opportunity to walk it off.
     
    There’s hurdles and red tape to work through with any new idea, but pushing those boundaries is something that baseball has failed to do time and time again. It’s when those types of initiatives are embraced that Rob Manfred will have begun to make the impact he’s long been looking for, and we’ll all be appreciative fans because of it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    We’re now quickly approaching May 1, a time in which Major League Baseball originally was slated to resume for the 2020 season. COVID-19 has continued to disrupt those plans, and the lack of sports has become frustratingly difficult. However, when we do get resumption (and that remains inevitable), I can’t help but reflect on two big returns.
     
    As things stand, we still have no idea when baseball will be back. The Coronavirus pandemic has dealt body blows to our country and around the world. Continuing efforts to react and respond to the situation has left resumption of what was once normal everyday life a complete secondary goal. That being said it seems that May will be a pivotal month for baseball.
     
    Today Jeff Passan wrote about the return of Major League Baseball, some of the ideas in place, and most importantly that the reality is trending from an if to a when. May could be the month that lays groundwork for future answers. We’re still likely a ways from seeing plan put into action, but having actual blueprints drawn out is a very integral part of the process.
     
    We have seen baseball halted before, not like this, but invoking similar feelings. There have been wars, tragedies, and events that have reach far beyond the diamond. When trying to anticipate what it may be like when we hear “Play ball!” again, I’m quickly drawn back to a pair of East Coast experiences.
     

     
    If you think about the hurt that 9/11 brought to the country, there are few greater pains than a mass killing in the name of hatred. I was just 11 at the time, but I know when we further distanced from the actual event that September 21 night in Queens was a big one. Mike Piazza hit a home run to dead center that shook the entire nation. I’m not a New York fan and supporting either of the Major League franchises there will never happen. I do know however; the country needed that homer.
     
    Years later Boston was at the center of an attack. With bombs going off during one of the most prolific events in the world, not only did the Marathon come to a halt, but so too did a city. I remember tracking the news about a manhunt that had people shuttered in their homes and led to the eventual capture of a coward hiding in a boat. The surreal emotions brought on by the initial impact and days that followed were truly mind boggling.
     
    When we had resumption of sport in the Massachusetts epicenter there he was, former Twins castoff David Ortiz. By this time Big Papi had become Boston. He was a fan favorite and will go down as one of the best hitters to ever play the game. After honoring all the brave men and women that vowed to keep the city safe, Ortiz did as he often does and gave us the “This is our f****** city” level of emotion.
     

     
    I don’t think suggesting a worldwide pandemic is along the same lines of hatred these other two instances sought out to prove, but there’s a unifying factor when we experience something together. The nation, and world, are going through this same event in a very similar way. Sports provide a distraction that allow us to turn from everyday life, and we can come together through fandom that unites people from so many different backgrounds.
     
    Give me flags flying, flyovers causing chills, and maybe the pop of the mitt bringing a tear to an eye. We likely won’t be in the ballparks to witness it, but baseball will be back, and we’ll all be better for it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    I found myself thinking through recent Twins history today and considered how much volatility there has been in terms of consistency. The Twins have been mostly bad, but when good, the performances have came and went rather quickly. 2020 truly looks like an open window, but it is Brian Dozier that I latched onto as the pinnacle of the roller coaster.
     
    After debuting in 2012 as a shortstop, Dozier quickly flamed out at the position after just 84 games there in his opening salvo. He would relocate to second base and it wasn’t until 2015 that he began to make his mark. He was an 8th round pick, and despite an appearance in both the Home Run Derby (2014) and All-Star Game (2015), he didn’t crack an .800 OPS until 2016.
     
    That was the year, at age-29, that it seemingly all came together. Dozier reinvented himself into a dead-pull hitter that was determined to find the quickest way over the left field fence. His 42 homers that season were the most by any Twins player during a single year not named Harmon Killebrew. He became a slugger despite a smaller stature, and he had risen to be called one of the best second basemen in the game.
     
    It really wasn’t since peak Robinson Cano that baseball had seen someone like Dozier. Brian wasn’t the prototypical uber-prospect, and he certainly wasn’t a five-tool player either. Like Cano, he was an offensive stalwart at an otherwise starved position. Around the league second base had become a destination for poor armed shortstops and was generally a position that you could find someone sitting right at league average.
     
    The 2016 Twins were abysmal in every sense of the word. They won just 59 games and manager Paul Molitor couldn’t get any more out of that squad if he tried. Thanks to Dozier’s dinger derby, there was at least something to tune into on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, much of his accomplishment was lost nationally in the vein of his club being so bad. He’d go one to follow up that performance with 34 dingers in 2017, a year in which Minnesota made the Postseason.
     
    Now having played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals since, Dozier’s career has already begun a downturn. He did post a .771 OPS last season while playing in 135 games and eventually winning a World Series ring. He had to settle for a minor league deal heading into 2020, but the expectation would be that he’d make the San Diego Padres Opening Day roster.
     
    I’m not sure if we’ll see Brian reach that .800 OPS plateau again or not, but he was a late bloomer that gave us one of the highest peaks in Twins history. The unfortunate reality is that it came during a period of extreme lows and the contributions proved hollow in the grand scheme of things.
     
    Thankfully, Dozier was a fan favorite and will not soon be forgotten in Twins Territory. His career will likely come to an eventually end being a rather nondescript one, but the memories will remain among the fondest to take place at Target Field. It will be interesting to see what we get from him in those nice new Padres threads, and what there is yet to come in the future.
     
    It will not be a career that’s celebrated with substantial accolades when he hangs em up, but it’s incredible to think how good he was, even if it was for such a brief time.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the 2020 season the Minnesota Twins needed to shore up their starting rotation. Rather than giving Jake Odorizzi a multi-year contract they handed him a qualifying offer. Agreeing to the $17.8MM deal may have left something on the table, but new developments mean Odorizzi could be in an interesting spot.
     
    We have no idea what baseball is going to look like this year, or whether it will look like anything at all. Make no mistake, Major League Baseball will get creative to capture some of those revenues, but ultimately the season could be lost. With the agreement between the league and MLBPA that would mean Odorizzi becomes a free agent once again.
     
    Going into 2021 the Twins could not extend Jake a qualifying offer. He’d have no draft pick compensation tied to him, and he’d be free to negotiate with any other organization. It’s one thing to say he’d be coming off a 3.51 ERA 3.36 FIP and career best 10.1 K/9. That’s a bit disingenuous though given then numbers were posted back in 2019. The 2020 season is and was an opportunity for substantiation, and should it not be played it’d be fair to wonder what true value actually is.
     
    It would be foolish to suggest that Odo wasn’t an already solid pitcher prior to the season he had in making his first All-Star Game. In seven big league seasons he had posted a 3.95 ERA 4.22 FIP and 8.3 K/9. With a 102 ERA+, he was just slightly above average, but right in the general consensus of what you’d expect from a mid-rotation arm.
     
    You aren’t paying $20MM per season for what Jake Odorizzi was, but you’d certainly pay that for the 29-year-old’s performance, and what you hope lies ahead. Now he’ll be 31 in 2021 but that obviously comes with the caveat of a full season having been spared in terms of mileage. Projecting forward is definitely an exercise that teams will need to be both bought into and have a general consensus as to what expectations will be.
     
    I think Minnesota saw the qualifying offer as a likely acceptance from the former Rays arm, and it always made sense for them to go down that path first. They could have pursued a long-term deal had he denied it but saving themselves future risk made sense as a first course of action. Should they be pushed into a long-term scenario a few months from now, I’d also wager it’s a pact they’d likely make.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have pushed the Twins chips into a win-now mode of sorts. Kenta Maeda and Josh Donaldson are both stars on the opposite side of 30. Failing to continue pairing them with an overall talent level near the top of the big leagues doesn’t seem indicative of the current direction. Odorizzi could certainly have a hefty price tag should he be able to renegotiate a lengthier deal, but Minnesota already has helped him to take the next step and keeping him hear to make an even greater one seems sensible.
     
    Maybe Odo will never receive the $17.8 million payday he agreed to for the season hanging in the balance. He should be in line for an even greater sum, and while there will be plenty of projecting it’s value, the Twins would seem wise to be a destination for him.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    Today in Fort Myers there was a big-league game as well as some minor league intrasquad action. Across the entire landscape though, it was the fallout of Coronavirus that was being felt. Major League implications were now in place, and minor league changes had come as well.
     
    With the Governor of Washington, Jay Inslee, placing a ban on public gatherings in an attempt to cease the spread of COVID-19 the Minnesota Twins had officially felt their first 2020 impact. Scheduled to play the Seattle Mariners for their second series of the season, those games must now be relocated. Talk has been that they could happen in Arizona, where the Mariners hold their Spring Training, but the situation remains fluid.
     
    This isn’t a one city ordeal either. San Francisco has limited public gatherings of more than 1,000 people, and with Oakland just across the bay, a disruption of Minnesota’s Opening Day affairs could soon follow. The NCAA has determined a fan less March Madness will take place, and many individual conferences have followed suit. In response to the newly discovered health scare, many are erring on the side of caution.
     
    It wasn’t until today that the Twins decided things would translate to the minor leagues as well. I talked with a couple of players earlier in the week, and they’d noted having been given instruction and direction relating to Coronavirus. On Wednesday however, the Twins had roped off significant portions of the minor league fields at the Lee Country Sports Complex, and ushers were put in place to interrupt the flow of foot traffic. A full-on quarantine of the athletes from bystanders had now been instituted.
     

     
    I’m not old enough to understand what the SARS outbreak looked like, and regardless of any research, living this is bordering on interesting to say the least. It feels akin to something like a video-game-esque zombie apocalypse and I feel as though we’re just beginning to see the total fallout. Having had discussions with those more in the know, I’d be greatly surprised to see Major League Baseball play a full 162-game slate in 2020. The logistical hurdles ahead are going to be immense, and without clarification on what could be yet to come, a simple delay could be more straightforward that the nightmare of reactive decisions.
     
    We likely won’t know the overall societal impact of this situation for years to come, and it’s almost assuredly going to be a benchmark in history books. While sports play a very small part of the overall social landscape, they are front and center when determining what many citizens gravitate towards.
     
    Unfortunately, I think this gets worse before it gets better, and the fallout we see from that could be unprecedented.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    There are not many question marks on the Minnesota Twins 26-man roster coming into the 2020 season. Jake Cave and Willians Astudillo are in contention for the final bench spot, and the rotation has turned into a two-man race. How do Randy Dobnak and Jhoulys Chacin stack up?
     
    Coming into the spring there’s no denying the Twins hope was to have the veteran Chacin make this decision easy. Forget that Dobnak was the game two starter during the 2019 ALDS in Yankees Stadium, he’s a guy that showed up out of nowhere and has options remaining. The caveat though, is that he is the one continuing to force Minnesota’s hand.
     
    By now you know the story. Former Uber driver that played through all three levels of the farm in 2019 while posting a ridiculous 2.07 ERA, he’s the fun-loving guy with the handlebar mustache. Although he deviates from the traditional strikeout hurlers of today, he’s also incredibly strong with both his control and command. In not allowing hitters to beat him with big innings, he’s pitching in front of a lineup that will always give him a chance.
     
    After arguably his worst spring start, Dobnak now own a line of 10.0 IP 5 H 3 R 3 ER 3 BB and 6 K. Dominant, maybe not, but he’s looked the part of a big leaguer ever single time he’s stepped on the mound. Again, with the Twins hoping to unlock the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers version of Chacin, this wasn’t likely part of the equation.
     
    The long-time vet was an absolute mess last year. Jhoulys posted a 5.79 ERA while walking everyone before being jettisoned from The Crew. He landed in Boston and things actually got worse. Contributing just north of 14 IP, he tallied an ERA north of 7.00 and continued giving out free passes for frequently than an ice cream man at the playground.
     
    Looking to rekindle the arm that produced a 3.50 ERA in 192 innings during the 2018 season, Minnesota made a smart decision by nabbing him on a non-roster deal. Given his big-league experience, the assumption should have always been that the final rotation spot out of the gate was his to lose. He’s been projected as such in each of my roster breakdowns in this space, but it’s becoming ever harder to do so.
     
    After his last outing Chacin has now totaled 8.0 IP in Grapefruit League play for Minnesota. Although he does have a solid 8/2 K/BB, he’s given up seven hits, plenty of hard contact, and six earned runs. To say that hitters have rarely been fooled by his stuff would be accurate.
     
    Obviously as a newly developed pitching institution, there’s plenty of tweaks the Twins are working on with the Venezuelan. Between analytical deep dives and scrapping of offerings, the goal has been to rekindle a career under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and the infrastructure that Derek Falvey has built. So far, the fruits of everyone’s labor have yet to produce anything ripe.
     
    We’re probably still too far out to call this race over, and still with an option Dobnak is going to need to be head and shoulders above his competition. Right now though, it’s inaccurate to call him anything but the most productive candidate, and once again the taxi driver is weaving his way through traffic.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    I’m doing this a bit earlier than normal this year, and that could wind up being a silly decision depending on injuries and how Spring Training plays out. Regardless, we aren’t sitting on a slew of unsigned talent in early March, and I’m confident with the look of many big-league squads going into 2020 at this point. Let’s hand out some hardware.
     
    The Washington Nationals will head into the season looking to defend their World Series trophy. That hasn’t been successfully accomplished in 20 years, since the New York Yankees ripped off three in a row. I don’t see that trend changing in 2020, and that should be an exciting reality for baseball fans. The sport has never seen so many young superstars, and the landscape of the league’s best is once again shifting.
     
    Here's what I had going into 2019. I got a couple of the awards right, and nailed the World Series, but ultimately came up just short of getting the winner.
     
    MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Gleyber Torres) National League – Bryce Harper (Dark Horse Kris Bryant)
     
    Until further notice, Mike Trout is the selection in the American League. He’s not only the greatest player in the game right now, but very well could be the best we’ve ever seen do it. There isn’t a hole in his game, and he seems to find ways to take another step forward each year. The Angels star now has a more loaded lineup around him and will look to get back to playing 150+ games. Generating 10+ fWAR for the first time since 2013 seems like a good bet.
     
    After signing the massive deal with the Phillies, Bryce Harper had somewhat of a disappointing season. You’ll certainly take an .882 OPS any day of the week however, and now acclimated entering his age-27 campaign, a jump back up to a 1.000+ OPS is something I’m comfortable with. Marry the last two years patience and production to generate something that should be near the total package.
     
    On the dark horse side, it’s more about what I like in each situation as opposed to legitimate threats to the actual award. Gleyber looks like an absolute superstar, and the Yankees are already going to be leaning on him heavily. Bryant has been plagued by injuries and underwhelming narratives, but he’s still coming off a .903 OPS. I don’t know what the Cubs will do, but he’ll stir that drink for sure.
     
    Cy Young: American League – Gerrit Cole (Dark Horse Jose Berrios) National League – Walker Buehler (Dark horse Jack Flaherty)
     
    Switching teams worked out well for Cole the last time he did it, and there’s no reason to expect his dominance to fade in New York. He’s pitched in a hitter’s ballpark before, and the Yankees rotation will count on him heavily. I tabbed Buehler as the pick last year in the National League, and I might have been just a year early. He finished with the 4th best fWAR and could certainly catch the two Nationals arms in the 2020 season. This is still Jacob deGrom’s title to lose, but I like the Dodgers ace.
     
    Maybe recycling Jose Berrios as a dark horse here isn’t fair, but he’s truly so close. A strong finish to his 2019 would’ve have him in a much better position, and he still finished 7th among AL starters in terms of fWAR. Minnesota is going to make noise again, and he should be expected to lead the rotation. If you’ve watched the Cardinals at all then there’s nothing under-the-radar about Flaherty. He’s a stud and emerging as one of baseball’s best arms. He mixed into the tier right below elite territory last year, but another step forward would have him second to no one.
     
    Rookie of the Year: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Jo Adell) National League – Gavin Lux (Dark Horse Mitch Keller)
     
    One of the chief requirements in garnering Rookie of the Year consideration is playing time, and Luis Robert will have that on his side. He’s an uber-prospect and will be with the White Sox from the jump. I’d expect some growing pains, but there’s too much talent not to side with the favorite in the AL. Lux made his debut last season for the Dodgers and will be unleashed fully in 2020. He’s a middle infield stud and should have little issue producing with a star-studded lineup around him.
     
    Back to that playing time issue, which is the only reason I don’t like Adell over Robert. I think the Angels start their outfield prospect in the minors and holding him out for a month or two could make the counting stats lag behind. He looks the part of a worth specimen to play in a Mike Trout led outfield, and you can bet he’ll hold his own. Keller’s big-league career began ugly with the Pirates last year, but he’s far too talented to continue going down that road. He still has rookie eligibility and should use the lessons from 2019 to establish himself as a very good arm for Derek Shelton’s squad.
     
    Postseason:
    American League- Yankees, Twins, Astros Wild Card – Angels, Rays
    National League- Braves, Cubs, Dodgers Wild Card – Reds, Nationals
    ALCS – Twins over Yankees
    NLDS – Dodgers over Braves
    World Series – Dodgers over Twins
     
    This probably comes off looking like a homer pick, but the Twins showed they’re for real last year. Sure, they didn’t hit in a three-game sample size against New York, but this is a team that will win less regular season games and ultimately be better positioned in the Postseason. Both New York and Houston are going to be very good, but losing Severino is a big blow, while the Astros are eventually going to be squashed by the scrutiny. One of the most interesting teams in the AL this year should be the Angels.
     
    On the National League side, it’s hard to look away from the talent Atlanta has throughout the lineup. Acuna is established, but I think Albies is the guy that takes another step forward. That division will be tightly contested, but I like Washington more than I’ll ever trust the Mets. Chicago is a complete wild card, and Cincinnati is one of those “won the offseason” clubs. It all comes down to how good the Dodgers are, and the only definition needed there is “very.”
     
    Los Angeles has come up short two of the past three years. That ends in 2020 regardless of who is across the diamond. Mookie Betts wasn’t even a necessary addition, but with him in the mix, they’ll be an unstoppable force come October.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    Despite an opportunity to hit the open market after the 2019 season, Jake Odorizzi returned to the Twins on a $17.8 million qualifying offer. It ended up being below market value and could be even more of a coup if Odorizzi continues trending towards the impact arm this rotation covets.
     
    One of the best moves the new regime has made since taking over was flipping middle infield prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Odo. Palacios is 23 years old, still at Double-A, and hasn’t posted an OPS north of .600 since 2017. Jake meanwhile had a career year in 2019, has wholeheartedly embraced data, and could be on the verge of a next step the pushes him into the upper echelon.
     
    Coming off his first All-Star appearance in 2019, Odorizzi posted a 3.51 ERA bolstered by a 3.36 FIP. His 10.1 K/9 was nearly two notches above his career norms, and his 1.208 WHIP was the lowest it’s been since 2016. Despite the Bugs Bunny baseball, the fly ball specialist posted a career low 0.9 HR/9. His 45% career fly ball rate translated into a career low 3.5% HR/FB ratio despite a career high 42% hard hit rate.
     
    How did all that come together? Well, Jake made some key strides in other areas obviously. His 93-mph average velocity was nearly two ticks up from 2018. At 29-years-old, he was adding oomph, and he’s been an early adopter of new technology. With that heavier fastball he was able to post a 12.7% whiff rate (career best) and batters made contact just 74% of the time against him.
     
    Assuming consistent gains is an inexact science. While peak performance falls along different places on a bell curve, Odorizzi’s age 30 season should drop within the realm of peak performance. Looking for competitive advantages as he has been vocal about doing, alongside an infrastructure designed to push the envelope, there should be a perfect storm for Odorizzi and Wes Johnson to marry.
     
    ZiPS projects Odorizzi to be right in line with Jose Berrios at the top of Minnesota’s rotation. His 109 ERA+ would lead the team among players on the Opening Day roster, and a 9.5 K/9 suggests a belief in 2019 performance. A 4.09 ERA would be a step backwards, but the 4.02 FIP holds a level of consistency across the board.
     
    Ultimately Jake has put together back-to-back seasons with a 3.00 ERA just once in his career, and the later was a step off the former. At this point though, I think it’s safe to say we’re dealing with a redesigned set of inputs. Add in the fact that Odorizzi is once again pitching for a contract working on just a one-year deal and squeezing more out of that next opportunity is a very clear goal.
     
    I think you can make a very easy argument that the Twins have a great level of starting pitching depth overall. The focus has always been on acquiring or developing the top tier arm. It’s assumed that Jose Berrios would embody that reality, and that’s a good bet, but Jake Odorizzi being right there with him seems equally as promising.
     
    Zack Wheeler was the guy everyone understandably looked the part of a projectable arm entering this winter. Minnesota brought back the guy that outpitched him and has plenty of momentum in his corner as well.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the 2019 season the Minnesota Twins took a chance on Michael Pineda. They paid him for the 2018 season with the intention of monitoring and directing his rehab. He rewarded them to the tune of a 4.01 ERA over 26 starts last year and was an anchor during a run to the Postseason. Once again in 2020, they’re taking the chance.
     
    After signing another two-year deal, this one doubling the previous pact, the Twins will be without Big Mike’s services for the first couple of months. After being reinstated from suspension (for an unapproved diuretic) he’ll return as a back-end starter for Rocco Baldelli’s staff. It remains to be seen how he’ll have been prepared to hit the ground running, but the hope would be that he picks up where he left off.
     
    The 4.01 ERA and 4.02 FIP are not all that noteworthy for the former Yankees starter, but it’s what he did down the stretch that jumps off the page. After owning a 5.34 ERA through his first 12 starts, he found a groove and turned a corner. Over his final 14 starts, from June 13 through September 6, Pineda posted a 2.96 ERA while allowing a .650 OPS against. He chalked up an 87/17 K/BB ratio and Minnesota went 10-4 in the contests he started.
     
    There was no denying his loss was a crushing one, as he appeared as a possible answer to the question of who would start game one of the ALDS. Once he returns this year, it will be in a very similar scenario. He’ll slot in behind the established top three, and he’ll be looked at as an addition as opposed to the necessary stopper. Minnesota would certainly love to see better than the 5.00+ ERA over his first handful of starts, but the rule won’t be how he finished either.
     
    Assuming that the Twins begin the year with Homer Bailey and Jhoulys Chacin at the back end of the group, they’ll be tasked with keeping the seats warm until someone is ready to step in. There’s no reason to believe they can’t outpitch their expectations but having someone like Pineda to fall back on is a major boost for the Twins.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have created an infrastructure that enhances development. We saw the emergence of unexpected arms like Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak contribute a year ago. That can still take place in 2020, all while having proven veterans going out to do their thing. There’s no reason to believe starts will be spread across any less than 10 players, and top loading the second ground with the efforts Michael Pineda is coming off must be viewed as a major win.
     
    Results are never guaranteed, and he’ll still need to go out and make it happen, but a second go-round with Pineda seemed like an ideal situation for everyone involved.
     
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  14. Ted Schwerzler
    The annual release of Topps Heritage is upon us. While fancy cards and chrome recreations are all the rage nowadays, there’s no great offering for set collectors than the yearly unveiling of Heritage. A throwback to the 1971 design this year, Topps has collectors looking to add the best new rookies in a nod to yesteryear.
     
    Specifically, for the Twins, Topps Heritage is somewhat of a mixed bag to start 2020. There wasn’t much in the way of big-league debuts last season, and Luis Arraez is no longer a rookie chase card. After seeing his first rookie card in 2020 Topps Series 1, Lewis Thorpe gets number two in this set. Heritage is home to the first rookie of former pitcher Brusdar Graterol, and although he’s now with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it should still be a neat opportunity to collect the fireballer.
     
    There’s a handful of usual suspects among the base set checklist, and the Twins land four players (Gonzalez, Rosario, Sano, and Kepler) within the 100-card high number short print group. Last season we saw Byron Buxton appear as an action variation card, and until those trickle onto the market within the coming days, we won’t know what to fully expect.
     
    Although the point of Heritage is set collecting and nostalgia, there’s always the inclusion of chrome versions for a select number of cards. That checklist is again 100 deep and includes five different parallels. Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco make up the Twins chase cards there. Chrome exclusives can be found in Spring Mega boxes as well, and that expands Twins players to Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, Willians Astudillo, Jose Berrios, and Miguel Sano.
     
    Hits rarely drive a Heritage product aside from key rookies, and there’s nothing of note for Minnesota fans here. There are two throwback autos in Sal Campisi and Tom Tischinski. Worn out subjects Bert Blyleven and Rod Carew also provide some in, while a 1/1 Harmon Killebrew cut can be had. There’s a couple of relics, both jersey swatches and mint coin types to chase as well.
     
    As a whole, Heritage is a must rip product for new and old Topps fans alike. I’d have preferred to see a better autograph subject for Minnesota in the set, but maybe there’s an intriguing inclusion or two in High Number later this year. You can find Heritage at hobby stores for roughly $100/box or in multiple retail formats beginning on February 26.
    Checklist here
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    My last Opening Day roster projection (version 2.0) was put out on February 10th. Not much has changed since then, and I feel good about what I came up with. The end of the position players come down to a two-way battle in my mind, and that would be between The Turtle and Rake Cave.
     
    After jumping into relevance during 2018, Astudillo came back to earth a year ago. Cave was acquired in exchange for Luis Gil and has served in an adequate fourth outfielder role since. Now entering 2020 with one of the best rosters in baseball, it will be about production and function when considering who will grab that coveted 26th roster spot.
     
    Let’s get to the tale of the tape.
     
    What Does Willians Do Well?
     
    When considering the functionality of Astudillo, you’d be hard pressed not to immediately notice his flexibility. No, not in terms of limberness, but in the sense of positional opportunity. Over the past two seasons he has played six different positions each year and calling him a primary anything may be a stretch.
     
    On top of being able to move him all over the diamond, there’s his ability to put the round bat on the round ball. He’s got 301 major league plate appearances and has struck out just 11 times. That 4% strikeout rate is in line with the 3% mark he set in the minors over 2,500 plate appearances as well. In a league dominated by power, commanding the zone to that extent is a feat in and of itself.
     
    What Doesn’t Willians Do Well?
     
    This is where strengths also become weaknesses for the artist famously known as La Tortuga. Rocco Baldelli is afforded the ability to play Astudillo all over the diamond, but defensive metrics suggest it’s not an opportunity he should be excited about. He’s a below average catcher, small target at first base, poor at third, and substantially stretched in the outfield. He’s a utility player in that he “can,” but the utility is lost in thinking whether he “should.”
     
    Also, about that strikeout rate. Last season Astudillo’s swing tendencies were exploited to the tune of a dismal .678 OPS. He still didn’t strike out at all, but because he doesn’t take walks either, he’ll never be a strong OBP guy. He has a very good ability to hit the ball, but a poor ability to discern what pitches he should be attacking. A 40% ground ball rate and 30% hard hit rate aren’t going to result in many positive outcomes. Aggressiveness works against him for the most part and opposing pitchers have exploited it.
     
    What Does Cave Do Well?
     
    Andrew Thares recently did a great job breaking down Jack Cave over at Twins Daily. His 2019 was exponentially better than starting outfielder Eddie Rosario, and he played a key role after Byron Buxton went down. Finishing with an .805 OPS in 72 games, Cave posted a .296/.377/.556 slash line over his final 50 games (39 starts 142 AB). He certainly fans plenty but doubling his walk rate to nearly 10% was a good adjustment.
     
    In the field Cave is limited to just the grass, but he contributes in all three positions. Although he’s an average at best outfielder, it’s not as though he’s a liability. Centerfield is not the place you’d want to put him, but he’s plenty adequate on the corners. Given the volatility involved with Minnesota’s starting centerfield option, the ability to cycle players through makes a good amount of sense.
     
    What Doesn’t Cave Do Well?
     
    I’m not sure Cave’s greatest hinderance is that there’s something he doesn’t inherently do well on his own as much as it’s the hand he’s currently being dealt. He’s a fourth outfielder on a team that has one of the better outfields in all of baseball. Although Eddie Rosario could be replaceable, that doesn’t appear to be a blueprint that will happen internally at the moment. On top of that, acquisitions in the infield have made Marwin Gonzalez more of an outfielder (a role he has been defensively superior at) pushing Cave further down the ladder.
     
    From a personal contribution standpoint, Cave does have some opportunity for growth in terms of contact rate. He’s just below 70%, and given the 52% hard hit rate in 2020, more bats on balls is a good thing. He owned a .358 BABIP despite just a .258 average. Sure, the counting numbers aren’t there yet but that could turn quick.
     
    At the end of the day, I think there’s little argument to be made that Cave isn’t the better player of the two. What this could come down to is the more ideal positional fit, and right now, Astudillo has that working in his favor.
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    Not all developmental paths are the same, and not all prospects move on a linear path to the major leagues. After being signed as a teenager and briefly generating buzz throughout the system things came to a halt in 2015. Now ready to kick down the door at the major league level, he may be the biggest breakout candidate in 2020.
     
    If you don’t know the story, it’s one of stunted development. Tommy John surgery followed by a crazy case of mononucleosis robbed Thorpe of two full seasons. After pitching on August 31, 2014, he was not back in a professional game until May 19, 2017. A lot of growth and maturation took place during that stretch, and since returning to the mound he’s done nothing but impress.
     
    His first year back, Thorpe posted a 2.93 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 83 innings. He followed that up with a 3.54 ERA and 10.9 K/9 at Double and Triple-A during the 2018 campaign. Last year he saw the K/9 jump to a career high 11.1 at Triple-A Rochester, and with the 2.3 BB/9 representing a career low, it was time for big league exposure.
     
    Although there were some tough outings in 2019, and the final ERA sat at 6.18 through 27.2 IP, it’s what the rest of the results tell us that remains enticing. Thorpe posted a strong 3.47 FIP and kept up his strikeout rate in the bigs tallying 10.1 K/9. Averaging 91.5 mph on his fastball, this isn’t just a traditional soft tossing lefty with an ability to spin it. He’s predominantly a fastball/slider guy but worked in both a changeup and curveball.
     
    With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the 26-man roster as the 5th pitcher. Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, and Devin Smeltzer will all be in the mix, but I’d imagine their early Triple-A results will line up who gets what opportunity and when. For Thorpe, he has a very strong chance to separate himself from the pack.
     
    A former Top-100 prospect, Thorpe’s track record is one that presents a very comforting floor. The ceiling of an ace isn’t there but a guy that can miss bats 12% of the time, expand the zone one-third of the time, and do a good job of limiting hard contact is something any rotation would plug right in the middle. If he’s able to work his way into an opportunity of extended run expecting something like the career results of Michael Pineda, and pop up stretches of Jake Odorizzi, is more than a doable ask.
     
    The Twins traded away Brusdar Graterol in part because of their long-term view regarding where his innings would come from. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are the pitchers represented on the prospect lists, and both remain starting candidates. Thorpe is the forgotten man in all of this though, and if the steps forward continue with the developmental infrastructure Minnesota has set up, he is primed to make the earliest impact.
     
    I won’t put a timeline on where, when, or how long the opportunity will present itself, but when the Southpaw from Down Under dazzles don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    The last stab I took at this was on January 20th. There haven’t been many moves since then, but the ones that have been made are absolutely monumental. While I felt good about where that version of the Twins was, it’s undeniable they are much better off now. Putting out one final projection prior to Spring Training getting underway, here’s where I see things as of today.
     
    Projection 1.0
     
    Catchers (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila
     
    No change here. These two are locked in and ready to go. Garver will need to stave off some expected regression, but he’ll also be dealing with an expanded workload. If Willians Astudillo pushes his was onto the roster, I don’t see the playing time coming behind the plate.
     
    Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson. Ehire Adrianza
     
    Another position group with no change. Donaldson punctuated the offseason when Minnesota signed him to the 4th biggest deal handed out this winter. This group will need to take a step forwards defensively, and I’m confident that they should be able to.
     
    Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave
     
    More status quo here. The final position spot comes down to Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for me, and I don’t see the utility of Astudillo being a net positive. He’s below average everywhere, while Cave can handle the bat and play all three outfield positions. The infield is more stable this season, and although Marwin should spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot, he’s the utility guy you feel comfortable about moving around.
     
    Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz
     
    Yes, still here to hit bombas.
     
    Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin
     
    This is the group that has seen the most change. Chacin was signed to a minor league deal, and while 2019 was awful, he was great in 2018. If the Twins see signs of that at all during the spring, they’ll have picked up a very solid 5th starter. I like the long-term ability of Lewis Thorpe, and both Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer have looked strong, but they all have options remaining. Now adding a bonafide stud in Kenta Maeda, this is a group that should be plenty capable of racing out to a second straight division title.
     
    Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers. Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak
     
    This group stays the same as I had it in round one, but that was prior to Minnesota designating Brusdar Graterol a reliever. He absolutely would have been on the roster, but instead was used to swing the deal for Maeda. Coming off a 2019 that saw this group finish as the third best unit in baseball, they’ve added some very quality pieces to make another run at the top.
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    In the end, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stood strong. After originally agreeing to a one-for-one swap of Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda, things needed to be tweaks after the Red Sox decided against the Minnesota prospects medicals. Two days before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, we got resolution.
     
    The Twins wound up not dealing with Boston at all, instead sending Graterol to the Dodgers (who had no problem with his medicals). They got Maeda, $10 million, and a yet-to-be announce prospect. Sweetening the deal just a bit, Luke Raley (who was acquired with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade) goes back to Los Angeles, and Minnesota sent the Dodgers their Comp B pick (67th overall).
     

     
    Obviously the one-for-one version of this deal was the most ideal for the Twins. It’s likely why they agreed in the first place, and assumedly why Boston decided they needed to reassess things. However, Minnesota moved a very good arm they believe is ticketed for relief work, in order to get a top-50 starter that could slot in right behind Jose Berrios in the starting rotation.
     
    Losing Raley isn’t the top 10 prospect situation that Boston was demanding, and while he’s a nice player, this isn’t an outfield he was going to crack given what’s established and who’s ahead of him. Getting the cash is hardly inconsequential as well. Maeda is guaranteed just $12.5 million over the course of his deal, and being on the hook for just $2.5 million of that is a nice situation to be in. Incentives drive the price up plenty, but being performance base, they’re benchmarks the Twins would happily see come to fruition.
     
    I dissected this swap when the news originally broke, and nothing changes for the Twins from a roster construction point now. They still have a very good bullpen, this rotation is substantially better, and there’s still significant prospect capital to make more moves when deemed necessary.
     
    Through all of this the only real loser is the former Twins fireballer. Graterol watched his name be drug through the mud in a very public way despite showing no indications of immediate injury concern. Instead of believing he could go down the street, he’ll now hop a plane from Fort Myers to Glendale beginning his 2020 season with a new organization.
     
    Chaim Bloom landed some very solid prospects despite packaging a superstar into a salary dump. The Dodgers net a pitcher in Price that is more than desirable if healthy, and arguably the second best player on the planet in Mookie Betts. Minnesota never needed to be involved in any of this, and at the end of the day they really weren’t. An opportunity arose to get their impact starter two days before camp opens, and the front office jumped at it.
     
    Now I think we can put a bow on this offseason and commend both Falvey and Levine for orchestrating what boils down to a solid “A” effort.
     

  19. Ted Schwerzler
    While we’re still a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective Spring Training homes, baseball season gets underway with the release of 2020 Topps Series 1 on Wednesday. The first offering of the hobby for the 2020 season means baseball is around the corner.
     
    Kicking things off in a big way this year, Topps is hosting the Million Card Rip Party today at Jerry World. As group breaks have become more prominent within the hobby, the card company sought out a handful of popular breakers and gathered them all at AT&T Stadium. They’ll showcase the event live, and collectors will get some of their first looks at the new cards.
     
    2020 Series 1 has a chance to go down as the best initial flagship offering ever. While it’s normally Series 2 or Update that highlights the sport’s best rookies, this season is somewhat unique. American League Rookie of the Year winner Yordan Alvarez will get his first rookie card, and the class also includes young stars like Gavin Lux and Bo Bichette. Deep and with plenty of star power, this group could have staying power for quite some time.
     
    Specifically, from the Twins, Lewis Thorpe is the lone rookie card in the set. However, Marwin Gonzalez gets a Minnesota card, as do Nelson Cruz and Taylor Rogers. Autographs are aplenty from the Twins, and they include everyone from Luis Arraez to Bert Blyleven. Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Jake Odorizzi have some pretty big chase cards to search for, and there will be some chrome offerings of former Topps line Turkey Red littered into retail.
     
    Given Thorpe is the only rookie for Minnesota, and he’s not seen as a desired commodity in the hobby, it would really only be the hits that drive a decent return from Twins subjects. However, the manufactured relics including the Sleeve Patch and Rookie Retrospectives sets could wind up being some of the best-looking manufactured offerings we’ve seen in years.
     
    Another takeaway from Topps’ early season checklists is that the Twins will have some new names making signing appearances in 2020. It appears Trevor May, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco will all be autographers in Topps product this year. With so much Rod Carew and Bert Blyleven focused content in the hobby of late, new names generating hype for Twins fans is a must. Hopefully more Joe Mauer cards will filter back into production at some point, but the Bomba Squad putting Minnesota back on the map is a great start.
     
    You can find hobby boxes of 2020 Topps Series 1 at your local card shop, and blaster boxes as well as other retail configurations will be available at Target, Walmart, and Walgreens.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the weekend the Minnesota Twins inked Jhoulys Chacin to a minor league deal that’s worth roughly $1.5 million if he makes the big-league club. With the non-roster invitees yet to be unveiled, and some chatter going around, he’s probably not the last arm to be brought in. Although the rotation didn’t experience a big jolt, Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to have some interesting options.
     
    A week ago, the assumed Opening Day rotation would have been Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Randy Dobnak, and Lewis Thorpe. With every new arm brought in, the thought is that the shift takes place from the bottom up. Now obviously a minor league deal is not guaranteed, and the reality is results must match some level of expectation during Spring Training. Assuming that happens though, Minnesota is putting themselves in a nice spot.
     
    Chacin was downright terrible in 2019. Pitching for the Brewers and Red Sox, he posted a 6.01 ERA 5.88 FIP and walked four per nine while allowing 2.2 HR/9. A slider first pitcher that was very good in 2018 however, there’s a lot to like here. Jhoulys is an 11-year veteran with a career 4.03 ERA and three sub 4.00 ERA seasons from 2015-2018. It’s a decent gamble that he could have a better 2020 than Bailey, who is on a guaranteed contract from the Twins.
     
    In 2019 Minnesota needed to get starts from just 10 different pitchers, and five guys made all but 16 of the initial trips to the mound. That’s extraordinary, reflective of strong performance, and more importantly indicative of superior health and good fortune. Rather than banking on that taking place again, Wes Johnson has been given an arsenal to utilize going forward.
     
    Randy Dobnak posted a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in his debut season en route to a Postseason start. Lewis Thorpe is a former top prospect that looks the part of a breakout arm. Devin Smeltzer has become somewhat of an afterthought despite being a key acquisition from the Dodgers and having a strong rookie season of his own. That’s all before we even touch on Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic. Then you add in the Michael Pineda will be back after suspension and Rich Hill will be healthy down the stretch, it’s safe to see Minnesota is overflowing with arms.
     
    We don’t yet know what level all the options will perform at, but the Twins have both opportunity and the mounts to feed in the year ahead. Plugging in the right guys in the most opportune situations will be the task of Johnson and Baldelli. There’s probably opportunity to flip an asset or two, and there’s definitely a level of insurance built into the roster construction here.
     
    I have no idea which Chacin shows up in 2020, but it appears Johnson is intrigued enough to work on getting the 2018 guy to take the mound. If you throw Taijuan Walker or someone else into the mix as well, the rotation that didn’t get its impact arm has an inside track at being both very good as well as very well supplemented.
     
    Who makes starts when should be up in the air for the next month or so, but give it to Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, they’ve done work stocking the cupboard with plenty of ammunition.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Ted Schwerzler
    Today the Pittsburgh Pirates swapped Sterling Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pair of prospects. In completing that deal, it’s another reminder that the trade market has yet to truly take off, and it makes a good amount of sense that the Minnesota Twins be involved.
     
    We still have yet to see any organizations move a big pitcher. Nolan Arenado looks to be on his way out of Colorado, and Mookie Betts could certainly be headed somewhere else if Boston is ready to deal. Going into the offseason it appeared that the Twins were well positioned to make a move, and nothing has changed to suggest otherwise.
     
    Right now, there’s a decent level of redundancy in Minnesota’s farm system, and there’s a strong mix of impact prospects alongside depth talent. The organization is not only going to have a substantial amount of decisions to make on the 40-man roster prior to 2021, but there’s going to be more than a handful that are extremely difficult.
    Expecting the Twins to land either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg would have always been a pipe dream at best. Zack Wheeler and Hyun-Jin Ryu would have completed Derek Falvey’s quest for an impact arm, but one was an upside play while the other has significant injury concerns. Doling out cash on either could have went up in smoke, and the long-term effects may be more costly.
     
    This is where we should again begin thinking about the trade market. After Josh Donaldson was signed by Minnesota, it appeared to put a bow on their offseason. Realistically though, neither Rich Hill nor Homer Bailey represent the necessary addition to calm concern out of the gate. Bailey is more a Kyle Gibson replacement than anything, and Hill’s impact may not be felt until October. Just recently clearing the previous high in payroll, there should still be room to squeak out a few more dollars.
     
    We haven’t entered a scenario in which it becomes necessary to move either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff but listening on offers and pursuing arms can be done knowing everything else is taken care of. Donaldson is more than an exciting addition on his own, but he wasn’t brought here for four years to sit back and carry the load. Minnesota made an aggressive move like that with the idea that talent can be supplemented as a whole and getting the entire 26-man help is a must.
     
    I have no idea if the Twins are content with the rotation as it stands today. It’s certainly not in shambles, but there’s also clear opportunities for growth. Maybe they’ll play a handful of games before deciding that something else needs to be done. What I do know is that making a trade remains a very sensible action, the assets are there, the timing is right, and the market is beginning to reveal itself.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Heroes get remembered but legends never die. That’s what we were told in that 1993 classic right? I have long been of the belief that idolizing celebrities or athletes almost certainly isn’t a good practice, but we can absolutely learn from them. At its core, I think that’s why the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant hit me so differently.
     
    The Black Mamba was an 18-year-old rookie that went on to play over 1,300 games, score over 33,000 points, and will go down among the inner-circle of greatest hoopers ever. During his career though, he wasn’t my guy. Despite being too young to really appreciate his greatness, I was Team Jordan. Kobe represented the villain. He was a dominating force that stopped at nothing to best his opponent. It wasn’t until years later that reflection set in for me.
     
    Baseball, basketball, or otherwise, the reality is that the athletes we see on a field of play are as flawed and fallible as the rest of us. It is in that reality where pedestals crumble and holding those we may never meet in such high regard can end up feeling empty. It’s also in that same vein that Kobe transcended what he was on the court inside of Staples Center.
     
    During summer of 2003 Kobe made arguably the worst decision of his life. At best he was an adulterer and cheater; at worst something substantially more reprehensible. What he was during those times though was human. At the top of the basketball world, he still faced the same trials, setbacks, and punishments that many others around the world could find themselves involved in. That’s not to dismiss the levity of what happened, or the terrible decision making that transpired, but it highlights how quickly stature can be dealt a blow.
     
    Sometime, and likely years later, that’s when I began to see it and turned towards emotions of respect for the man known by a single name. Attacking life with the same tenacity and mentality that he did on the basketball court, no one was going to outwork him. Bryant rebuilt his public image, but only after doing so in his own backyard. His marriage made it through that horrendous occurrence, and then again in 2011 when Vanessa filed for divorce. I can’t pretend to know the intimate details of their family, but my assumption would be that coming out on the other side in 2013 and establishing a family unit with ties that look deep, wrongs had been righted.
     
    We will never know what it’s like to win multiple NBA titles or score all those points. However, there isn’t a human alive that can’t associate with bad decisions, hurt, and forgiveness. That’s the story of Kobe Bryant that rocks me to my core. He was a man that, by his own doing, went through it all and came out for the better.
     
    Fortunately for so many of us simply labeled fans or onlookers, we got to see that better. From Vanessa blowing Kobe a kiss in that final 60-point performance (to which he gave her a quick smile and wink), or the way the Lakers great lit up when talking about any of his daughters. It was apparent that Gianna was the apple of his eye, and regardless of her determination to carry on the family legacy in the gym, it was her mentality that Kobe shined brightest in.
     

     
    Tragedies by nature will never be easy, but it’s hard not to look at this one and see people taken away that were destined to have a profound impact on the world. Kobe looked poised and positioned to have a greater impact in the next 40 years than he did in the first, and he had both the platform and resources to accomplish that feat. Gianna may have been the next trailblazer, WNBA superstar, and advocate for all things the matured Mamba had instilled in her.
     
    We’ll never know what could have been, but I finally lost it when ESPN’s Elle Duncan gave us some of the most-raw emotion we’ll ever see on TV. Kobe didn’t need boys, and he didn’t need basketball. He had a mindsight that would allow him to push, drive, and accomplish anything in this world. His family was better for it, his girls were better for it, and most importantly he was better for it.
     

     
    Kobe Bryant wasn’t an idol to me. He wasn’t someone I cared about on the Lakers. He wasn’t even someone I planned to tune into their Hall of Fame speech. Kobe Bryant was a flawed human being with exceptional traits and a desire to rise above, grow, and be better. That’s a father and man I can absolutely choose to emulate.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    After making their biggest splash in franchise history, the Minnesota Twins have all but put a bow on the offseason. There’s less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers, and the first season of 26-man rosters will soon be underway. Rocco Baldelli will soon begin year two, and it’s worth wondering who goes north with him.
     
    I think Minnesota could still afford to add a starting pitcher and doing so through a trade has always seemed like the most logical path. That may not come before the games begin to matter however, so now seems like a good time to blueprint what is currently in the fold. No doubt there’s some key cogs on the shelf to start the year, but that leaves a couple of spots open for competition.
     
    Before kicking things off at Spring Training, here’s where I see the 26-man headed as of today:
     
    Catcher (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila
     
    This should be a certainty. Garver is coming off the best year of his career, and Avila was signed to replace Jason Castro. It will be interesting to see if the Twins unleash a bit more Garv Sauce this year, but the load will be handled by this tandem.
     
    Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, Ehire Adrianza
     
    You’ve got a group of four starters that are all but locked into their positions. Obviously, Donaldson’s signing was a massive get for the Twins, and he pushes Sano into a new position. How the infield works, and what steps forward the group takes, are still in question but no one is unsure of who will play where. Adrianza returns as the utility man, and he had a very nice 2019 season.
     
    Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez
     
    At this moment Rosario has not yet been dealt anywhere. That could certainly change at some point throughout the year, but the starting outfield should be set in stone. Byron Buxton will be returning from surgery, and hopefully pick back up where he left off. Kepler looks like a guy that could break out as one of the best players in baseball. Cave did some very nice things last year, and Marwin should transition to more of an outfield first utility role.
     
    Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz
     
    He’s back, and he’ll hit more bombas. Not much else to say here.
     
    Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak
     
    There should be a good deal of turnover in this group as the season goes on, and that’s not something we saw much of in 2019. Berrios and Odorizzi will remain the whole year, and Bailey should be a fine replacement for Kyle Gibson. I think Lewis Thorpe has immense potential and starting in the Opening Day rotation would give him a great opportunity. Dobnak gets the nod here for me over Devin Smeltzer. This spot eventually may be taken by Brusdar Graterol, but ultimately, I think he begins the year at Triple-A.
     
    Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak
     
    This group has six current locks in Rogers, May, Romo, Duffey, Clippard, and Littell. From there, I think they go with two more arms and that includes Wisler and Stashak. Wisler is a slider specialist that Minnesota gave a guaranteed contract to this offseason. Stashak debuted at the end of 2019 and threw 25 innings to the tune of a 3.24 ERA. He made a great first impression, and the 25/1 K/BB was something special out of the gates. Fernando Romero could be on the cusp here, and Ryne Harper may have lost his opportunity.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into 2019 one of the biggest storylines was that of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. New manager Rocco Baldelli had a rag tag group of arms, and there were more question marks than anyone would have liked. Fast forward a year and Wes Johnson transformed that narrative allowing 2020 to keep the unit entirely off the radar.
     
    When the team broke from Spring Training down in Fort Myers last year, only six players were truly relievers. The group consisted of Taylor Rogers, Trevor Mayer, Blake Parker, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ryne Harper. Of those, only three remain.
     
    Over the course of 2019 that unit took on a considerably different feeling. From one of uncertainty to a relative strength, new faces were added, and steps forward were taken. When the dust settled, Minnesota’s unit posted the 3rd highest fWAR in baseball, and were on par with the vaunted Yankees relief corps. The 3.92 FIP was the best in baseball, and while they didn’t have the best strikeout rate, a 2.9 BB/9 led the sport as well.
     
    Fast forward to today and the bullpen is all but settled. The Twins have some pieces to add on the roster, but this isn’t an area that needs work. With a 26-man roster for 2020, an eight-man staff to start out the year makes a good amount of sense. The names that make the most sense are Rogers, May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Cody Stashak, and Matt Wisler. As a holdover from 2019, Ryne Harper could also push to eek his way in.
     
    This configuration includes hard throwers, bat missers, and guys with a strong ability to hit their spots. Breaking balls are present in the arms of Romo, Duffey, and Wisler. Littell and May can both shove, while arms like Rogers, Clippard, and Stashak are well rounded overall. This group doesn’t have names like Chapman or Britton, but you can bet that on performance alone, there’s household contributors to be utilized.
     
    After needing to replace four-fifths of the starting rotation from last year, it’s there that the Twins will find the most question marks for the year ahead. Give credit to Wes Johnson stepping in and immediately establishing himself as a viable and impressive pitching coach at the Major League level. The rotation is now buoyed mainly by veterans, but the supplementation of younger arms will need to be positioned with opportunity for success.
     
    Last season there was a good deal of changes made on the fly in the pen and being able to successfully navigate those waters provides a blueprint for the year ahead. No team will ever have enough pitching, and while Minnesota has flip-flopped the avenue in which they are needy, an infrastructure that fosters success is clearly in place.
     
    We don’t yet know how the Twins relievers will perform in the year ahead, and volatility on that part of the roster is to be expected. Given where the narrative was just a season ago however, the development and change are to be celebrated.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    In the ever-expanding quest for information, Baseball Savant unveiled new metrics for public consumption yesterday. We’ve had Outs Above Average for a couple of years now, but it’s only related to outfielders. Now thanks to technology provided through Statcast we have quantifiable infield numbers. For the Twins, that’s not a great thing.
     
    At the top of the infield leaderboards there are plenty of familiar names. Javier Baez paces the league with 19 OAA. He’s followed by Nolan Arenado and Andrelton Simmons. Nick Ahmed gets in there before Trevor Story and then Matt Chapman. Everyone in that group is considered an elite defender of the dirt. When looking for Minnesota Twins though, they’re nowhere to be found.
     
    Marwin Gonzalez was the highest performer of Rocco Baldelli’s squad, posting 7 OAA (good enough for 19th). You can then skip over the since departed Jonathan Schoop (5/31st) and C.J. Cron (1/99th) before reaching another currently rostered player. As a part-time player, Ehire Adrianza posted a -1 OAA (147th) and Miguel Sano checked in at -5 OAA (194th). That leaves just Luis Arraez (-6/206th) and Jorge Polanco, whose -16 OAA is tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for dead last (218th).
     
    If you think back to 2019 there was a quiet concern as defensive ability dipped for Minnesota as the season went on. The reality isn’t necessarily that the unit got substantially worse, but that without Byron Buxton in the outfield, the over output was weighed down much more heavily by the sagging infield. Three of the infield spots are already spoken for in 2020, and unless there’s a concentrated jump in performance, they can be expected to provide much of the same.
     
    Even without digging into advanced analytics, it was visible to the naked eye that Minnesota left plenty to be desired on the dirt. A poor infield makes groundball pitchers less than ideal fits for team construction, so seeing an appeal in Dallas Keuchel was always hard, and a reunion with Kyle Gibson might have been hard to swing.
    Right now, we only have three years of OAA infield data at our disposal, but it will be interesting to see how the Twins look to evolve and attack the deficiency in 2020. Rather than dismissing the information as too invasive, it’s at least worth acknowledging that it describes exactly what we were able to see and solidify there may be a problem worth addressing.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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