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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    There is no more frustrating word to me in modern baseball than analytics. I love and fully embrace the new avenues in which we are able to evaluate and prepare in regards to the game of baseball. Unfortunately, boiling it down to a buzzword as “analytics” has become, leads to little more than a quick note suggestive of being well versed in actual understanding. This World Series is about two organizations that are fully capable of turning up their nose at those instances.
     
    Let’s not be naïve, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the second highest payroll in baseball for the 2020 season. It’s not as though Dave Roberts’ team is starved for talent. Similarly built organizations like the New York Yankees (1st) and the Boston Red Sox (3rd) find themselves at home, however. One key difference for the Dodgers is talent utilization.
     
    On Sunday night, settling in for a game seven against the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles started Dustin May. He was used as an opener with Tony Gonsolin working as the bulk arm. Quickly into the action the broadcast wondered whether that decision came from the manager or the front office. The likely reality is that the answer is simply both. Suggesting that modern evaluation for baseball success is hidden behind computer computations and that the game is played on paper wildly misunderstands analytics. The point isn’t to simply plug in the components of a calculated answer, but instead best position yourself based upon expected outcomes and marry that with the game on the field.
     
    Certainly, the Dodgers have paid for their fair share of talent, what they also know is how to best utilize it in order to capitalize on the effectiveness. There’s an incredible amount of nuance when it comes to how teams deploy information. Some quick digging shows that Los Angeles shifted 55% of the time in 2020. That was more than any team in baseball, one of only two organizations to do so more than 50% of the time and was the same standing they were in for 2019. Defensive positioning is just one call out that can reflect a progressive way of playing the game. The reality is that there’s more than one way to squeeze out opportunity in the win column.
     
    Take a look at the Tampa Bay Rays for example. They’ve long been considered *the* organization when it comes to deploying competitive advantages through analytical assessments. With the 28th highest payroll in baseball this year, they played to an American League best record and represent the league as the 2nd best team in the sport.
     
    Defensive positioning isn’t the way in which Tampa found themselves locking down a competitive advantage in 2020. They shifted just 33% of the time, 19th overall in the game. They didn’t bludgeon their way to being an offensive juggernaut. Hitting just 80 dingers they were only 14th in baseball, but the 9.4 fWAR compiled led to a top 10 offense within the game. The Rays made sure to value outs. In over 4,000 plate appearances this year not once did they sacrifice bunt.
     
    Where Tampa put things together in 2020 was on the mound. That’s an interesting revelation because they don’t have a Clayton Kershaw or Gerrit Cole. The Rays made an incredible swap (and partly thanks to Pittsburgh’s poor talent evaluation) in turning Chris Archer into the Tyler Glasnow package. Beyond the man with the hair and Blake Snell though, the Rays rotational is relatively nondescript. Their bullpen, however, is another story.
     
    In 2020 the Rays owned the best bullpen in baseball generating a combined 3.6 fWAR. By now you’d hope the names are more widely known, but from Castillo to Anderson, and Fairbanks to Curtiss, it’s a unit made of lockdown arms. What Tampa has done is rely on their own ability to develop arms rather than pay or reach for answers. Aaron Slegers and John Curtiss were castoffs from other organizations, Anderson was targeted in trade as was Fairbanks, and Castillo was internally groomed.
     
    What happens in Tampa Bay remains reliant upon open communication and buy-in from everyone involved. Being able to suggest that length from a starter isn’t as necessary as quality. Having the opportunity to deploy any arm at any time or doing away with traditional norms tied to specific roles, those are all instances that numbers back but can’t convey.
     
    By understanding how to gain a statistical advantage and then being able to deploy it is where the next stage of the game is taking us. Right now, we’re still too stuck on analytics being some catch-all descriptor, and there’s still a vocal old-guard looking to tear down progression. In all ventures however, the goal is progress. We’re seeing that in this sport, and the World Series will highlight it. This isn’t about a top and bottom spending team. It’s about two organizations that best utilized all of the talent they had at their disposal.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Going into this offseason the Minnesota Twins are going to need a replacement for a couple of backup infielders. Both Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are free agents, and I’d expect the Twins to move on from both. They served key roles on the active roster however, so seeking out a replacement will be necessary.
     
    Marwin was signed under the premise that his 2017 was repeatable, and had they know it was a trash idea, Minnesota likely would’ve looked elsewhere. Adrianza was a glove first guy that performed up to that distinction when getting run with the Twins. In finding an alternative, Rocco Baldelli will need a player that can be an asset when filling in.
     
    The reality is that Minnesota has some serious issues when things go awry on the dirt, and we saw that with both Josh Donaldson and Luis Arraez in 2020. Having a backup plan there is a must going into a new season. Marwin and Ehire posted a .606 and .557 OPS respectively, so aside from occupying space, them being in the game was a serious negative.
     
    I don’t know that I’m hung up on any one person for their replacements, but there’s definitely a profile I’d like to see. Marwin brought an outfield ability to the utility role, but that should be less necessary with the readiness of Alex Kirilloff and the combined emergence of Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr. To me, the Minnesota utility man has to be able to play both second and third base while also owning a productive bat.
     
    Traditionally second base hasn’t been a position of immense offensive production, but that’s shifted in recent years. There are some truly exceptional offensive two-baggers in the game and carrying that profile to a position that needs to contribute offensively at the hot corner, is a very good thing. I don’t want to live in a world where the Twins are sans Donaldson or Arraez for consistent stretches, but they need to be better prepared if they are.
     
    So, what are some names to consider? This is actually a decent free agent class if you’re shopping in the middle. It’s not especially noteworthy at the top however, and that could create some additional competition around the mean. Regardless, there’s some names I’d be more than happy to see wearing baby blue at Target Field.
     
    Jurickson Profar
     
    The former top prospect will be 28 in 2021. He has arguably the most positional flexibility of anyone in the group and that presents a lot to like. He posted a .793 OPS with the Rangers in 2018 and was at .771 this season for the Padres. He’s hardly been the elite prospect that he was billed, but there’s legit power and on-base skills here when he’s going good. If the Twins see a way to unlock another level in what should be his prime, a solid commitment wouldn’t be shocking.
     
    Tommy La Stella
     
    Traded to the Athletics during the 2020 season, La Stella enters the open market coming off a second straight strong season. His .819 OPS followed an .832 mark as a first time All Star in 2019. He’s primarily played second base but has 84 starts at the hot corner as well. The power potential isn’t a huge draw here, but he did launch 16 dingers in 80 games during 2019.
     
    Jose Iglesias
     
    A number of years ago Iglesias struck me as an ideal candidate to be the Twins shortstop. He’s a strong defender there and it’s been the only role he’s played since 2015. It remains to be seen whether the downgrade in role is one he’d agree to, but there’s also a good option to spell Jorge Polanco when needed. The .956 OPS in 39 games with the Orioles this year is a definite outlier however, and Minnesota would need to be convinced they’re getting above the .700 career mark. He’s probably a boost on Ehire while being Marwin or worse.
     
    Asdrubal Cabrera
     
    This one would definitely be just a one-year deal as he’ll be 35 in 2021. Cabrera has been around for a while, having just completed his 14th year in the majors. He won a ring with the Washington Nationals a season ago and took over as the primary second basemen from former Twins great Brian Dozier. Cabrera is more second basemen than he is third but can play both roles. What I like here is that the offensive floor is pretty safe. He’s probably not going to post much lower than a .750 OPS and you’ve got a chance for him to scratch near .800. There’s power, there’s some walks, there’s something to like.
     
    Jedd Gyorko
     
    I’m not going to write him up as the Brewers have an affordable team option and it’d make little sense for them not to use it coming off the season he just had.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins signed two long term extensions for current big leaguers back in 2019. One of them was given to German left fielder, Max Kepler. He’s unlikely to be going anywhere, but the same can’t be said for right fielder Eddie Rosario. With just one open outfield spot, the organization has at least three corner talents to generate a plan for.
     
    Now able to call the 2020 Major League Baseball year, last season, it comes with the reality that top prospect Alex Kirilloff made his debut. Surprisingly, he did so in the final game of the year, an elimination tilt against the Houston Astros during the Wild Card round of the Postseason. In making that debut however, it was the second appearance from one of Minnesota’s premier corner outfield talents.
     
    Brent Rooker beat Kirilloff to the big leagues. Prior to a season ending injury, Rooker impressed during his first seven major league contests. He posted a hearty .960 OPS and three of his six hits were of the extra base variety (with one leaving the yard). As was the case during his minor league days however, he did post an empty walk tally with a 5/0 K/BB ratio. It’s not that Rooker can’t be an OBP guy, but there’s a lot of swing and miss to his profile as well.
     
    Rounding out the trio of talented options is Trevor Larnach. Another first round selection, the former Oregon State Beaver is knocking on the door in his own right. He too isn’t considered a centerfield candidate, but he’s also the least like to move to first base or designated hitter. The bat power is elite, and Baseball Prospectus had him as a top 50 prospect heading into 2020. He owns an .853 professional OPS and was at .842 in just over 40 Double-A games during 2019. Despite the lack of minor league season, his abilities are advanced, and he should be an option early in 2021.
     
    What Minnesota does to handle this trio could be one of the most important decisions in their immediate future. It already appears as if Alex Kirilloff has seen his last days in a minor league uniform, and Brent Rooker did nothing to warrant a step back either. Kirilloff could open as Minnesota’s left fielder to kick off 2021, and Rooker’s role expands if Nelson Cruz is not retained. How Larnach fits will be interesting to see, but you can bet he’s ready to kick that door in.
     
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will likely always need to have a strong backup plan for if and when Byron Buxton’s aggressive style lands him on the shelf. Until that happens though, none of these guys are players solely needing to come up and sit. LaMonte Wade Jr. and Jake Cave are both great backup options, but neither is the horse you want to tie a buggy too. The Twins have a group of corner guys ready to take over, and how they deploy them all is a narrative worth watching.
     
    Rooker, Larnach, and Kirilloff couldn’t have less similar backgrounds being separated by accomplishments at the collegiate and high school level. They’ve all turned heads on a pro field though, and you can bet than Minnesota will be looking to make that a constant reality at Target Field for many years to come.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    If the Twins number one decision this winter is whether or not to re-sign Nelson Cruz, the second most important may be what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The home-grown prospect is due for a raise in arbitration and at a project $9 million or so, it’s down to crunch time.
     
    Eddie Rosario’s all but established as a big-league veteran by now, but it’s also well known what his production profile looks like. He’s a free swinger that has the ability to do damage while leaving a significant amount of opportunity on the table. He’s a poor on-base hitter, and defensively he’s rarely completely checked in.
     
    After admitting to his shortcomings publicly this offseason, Rosario committed to making strides defensively and showing better plate discipline. In the shortened season that was, it resulted in a 16-point increase to OBP (.316) and a 9 run DRS swing (+3). Given the muted amount of games and innings, the defensive mark was on pace to generate a career best DRS tally with a UZR to follow suit. He also posted five outfield assists in just 51 games. Still people attempt to run on his arm.
     
    So, that’s the good news. The bad news is that his totals resulted in just a .257/.316/.476 slash line with a 2.9 fWAR/162. That’s not to suggest Rosario is a bad player by any means, but a 2.9 fWAR would’ve been just the 25th (of a total 53) best mark among qualified outfielders in 2019. For Rosario, that also would’ve represented the second highest tally of his career.
     
    What Minnesota must decide is where they project Rosario going forward, and what they logically see from the alternative options. At 29-years-old it’s entirely fair to argue that this is where the Puerto Rican enters his prime. Unfortunately, that more often translates to enhanced production based upon current trends rather than an ultimate change in approach. In other words, the lack of strike zone command isn’t going to suddenly get better because of his peak physical stature. Entering the final year of arbitration, there certainly could be added motivation as he looks for that first big contract.
     
    On the alternative options front the Twins likely need to look no further than their internal assets. Alex Kirilloff made his Major League debut in game two of the American League Wild Card series against the Houston Astros. If I were a betting man, and I am, seeing Kirilloff return to the minors in 2021 seems unlikely. He’s a natural corner outfielder and appears ready to assume that role immediately. Although the arm doesn’t profile the same, Kirilloff is a vastly better hitting prospect with both plus on-base and power skills. Brent Rooker needs a role, although is less certain with a deeper floor, and top fellow prospect Trevor Larnach is near-ready as well. Add in LaMonte Wade and Jake Cave being capable options and you’ve got yourself a stable.
     
    I don’t see Minnesota getting a ton for Rosario in trade. He’s under team control for just one more season, and teams (as would be the case for the Twins) likely aren’t lining up to pay a career .788 OPS guy over $9 million. Non-tendering Rosario would seem like a misstep but only given the uncertainty as to where that financial commitment goes. If the Twins can allocate those funds to another player filling a separate need, then so be it. You’d have a hard time spinning a non-tender as positive if the money goes unspent, however.
     
    Last offseason seemed like a prime opportunity to trade Rosario. He was coming off of MVP votes and posted his third straight season with an OPS at .800 or above. When that didn’t happen, the future became a bit murkier. It’s hard to lean one way or another without having the other part of the decision-making process in hand as well, but this is a storyline to watch over the winter.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    Wednesday was about as ugly as it gets. After giving away the game to Houston on Tuesday, Minnesota watched their Postseason hopes go up in flames, for an 18th consecutive loss. Now out of the end-of-season-tournament, how can we put a Twins spin on the great baseball action still left?
     
    If you missed what the San Diego Padres did yesterday afternoon and into the evening, that’s really too bad. It’s performances like those that define October baseball. The Twins are out of it, and so are countless other teams. In fact, the entirety of the AL Central is now eliminated. That doesn’t mean there aren’t avenues to pull for guys that once made an impact in a Minnesota uniform.
     
    Ryan Pressly – Houston Astros
     
    This one is tough personally because Ryan and his wife Kat are people I’ve gotten to know. They are both awesome individuals, and Ryan evolving into one of the game’s best relievers has been fun to see. Watching him take his abilities to a whole new level in embracing different techniques in Houston was also exciting. The downside is that he’s teammates with Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve. I can get past them having just beaten the Twins, and I can even move on from the fact that those guys cheated so substantially. What rubs me the wrong way is that the trio remains brazen, unapologetic, and completely aloof when it comes to their public perception. Ryan, go shove, but the rest of the Astros can shove it.
     
    Liam Hendriks and Robbie Grossman – Oakland Athletics
     
    Hendriks is hardly a secret anymore. He’s been one of baseball’s best relievers for a number of years, and some new hardware should be coming his way for the performance in 2020. Recently fresh off defeating the Chicago White Sox, there’s plenty to like about that outcome as well. Grossman went from a disaster year defensively with the Twins to a complete turnaround and one of the better glue guys in baseball. He’s not a household name, and while he’s always going to be an OBP-guru, he’ll never rack up the accolades. Both are extremely easy to root for, however. Go Athletics!
     
    Aaron Hicks – New York Yankees
     
    It’ll be a cold day in hell before I every cheer for the Yankees in a baseball game. That said, former top prospect Aaron Hicks remains among my favorite to follow around the game. He’s been great with New York when healthy, and although it crushed the Twins, the diving catch he made to steal a game winning hit from Max Kepler last summer was nothing short of amazing. Go Aaron, boo Yankees.
     
    Nick Anderson – Tampa Bay Rays
     
    A first-class organization is always easy to pull for, and the Rays are in the driver’s seat this season as a one seed. Nick Anderson is someone I touch on constantly through Twitter as it still irks me that Derek Falvey let this one get away. The former Twins prospect was tearing up Triple-A and was never given a chance to even flash his stuff at the big-league level. Instead he’s gone on to become one of the nastiest relievers in all of baseball. He’s a Minnesota native, and would’ve looked great in the Twins baby blues. Hopefully, he’s part of a Rays squad that downs the Evil Empire.
     
    Brandon Kintzler – Miami Marlins
     
    What a season it has been for this team. They needed to basically reconstruct an entire roster just days into an already weird year, and then made the Postseason despite being expected to perform as somewhat of a bottom feeder. Kintzler closed out games for the Twins a couple of years ago and is now doing the same for Miami. He was under-appreciated here and always seemed like a good due. Certainly not going to blow the ball by anyone, but he can serve up ground balls with the best of them. This is a Cinderella story I can get behind.
     
    Brusdar Graterol – Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    Kenta Maeda came over to the Twins and performed like an absolute ace. There’s nothing wrong with both teams benefitting from a good trade, and it seems like that’s what at play here. Minnesota’s former top pitching prospect closed out a series win following Clayton Kershaw last night. He throws 100 and is always smiling. The Bazooka is a level-headed kid that’s going to see plenty more success. The Dodgers are the favorites, and with good reason. If you want to get behind a near sure thing, this is your team.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    While it did seem like we would struggle to have baseball in 2020 for a period of time, Sunday marked the culmination of the regular season. Major League Baseball overcame outbreaks and adverse conditions to reach its destined conclusion. Now, as a member of the IBWAA, I needed to look back and hand out some votes.
     
    Just like the BBWAA, the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America votes on all major award categories on a yearly basis. The results will be tabulated and revealed at a later date, but here is what my ballot looked like.
     
    American League MVP: Jose Ramirez (runners up: Jose Abreu, Mike Trout, Brandon Lowe, Nelson Cruz)
     
    Ramirez posted 3.4 fWAR in 2020 to lead all players in the game. Cleveland made a strong comeback into the AL Central Division race at the end of the season, and it was on the bat of Ramirez that the White Sox met their match. Cleveland’s lineup struggled to produce for much of the season, but it was Ramirez that provided the spark and will be their leader come Postseason play.
     
    National League MVP: Freddie Freeman (runners up: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, Trea Turner)
     
    What a story in the National League. The Atlanta Braves were expected to be good, but Freeman was dealt a tough hand when contracting COVID-19 and dealing with substantial symptoms. He mentioned being extremely fearful in the midst of his illness and got a late start to Summer Camp. He then posted a 3.3 fWAR on the season and trailed only Cleveland’s Ramirez in that category across the entire landscape of the game.
     
    American League Cy Young: Shane Bieber (runners up: Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu)
     
    Little debate needed to take place here. While there were other strong pitching performances this season, it was Bieber that was the cream of the crop. Not Justin posted double-digit strikeout performances in eight of his 12 starts this season, and he gave up more than two runs in an outing just three times. It was mastery each time he stepped on the mound.
     
    National League Cy Young: Trevor Bauer (runners up: Yu Darvish, Jacob deGrom)
     
    Cincinnati looked to be a darling team this year, and if they make noise in the Postseason it’ll be in large part due to their pitching staff. Trevor Bauer takes down the ERA title and racked up a career best 12.3 K/9. He led the league in ERA+, WHIP, and H/9. In his final year with the Reds, there’s little denying a nice payday is coming.
     
    American League Rookie of the Year: Kyle Lewis (runners up: James Karinchak, Luis Robert)
     
    Chicago’s rising star was expected to run away with this, but it was the Seattle Mariners rookie that jumped out to a quick lead and hid. Kyle Lewis has plenty of swing and miss in his profile, but he played a great centerfield while shower tremendous power with his bat as well. Adjustments will be necessary down the line, but there’s little denying he was the cream of the crop in 2020.
     
    National League Rookie of the Year: Devin Williams (runners up: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm)
     
    Taken in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, Williams took his time getting to the big leagues. In 27.0 IP this year he racked up a ridiculous 17.7 K/9 and allowed just a single earned run on eight total hits. Dominance is what the Brewers got out of their stud reliever, and it’s that effort that took him from unknown to award winner.
     
    American League Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash (runners up: Bob Melvin, Rocco Baldelli)
     
    With the Yankees expected to run away in the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays capitalizing on opportunity was impressive. Reaching 40 wins and posting the best record in the American League, Tampa consistently beat not only New York, but Toronto and the rest of the division as well. Cash got great seasons from more than a handful of players and the Rays have him to thank for their position as the one seed.
     
    National League Manager of the Year: Don Mattingly (runners up: Dave Roberts, David Ross)
     
    This season was always going to be one of unprecedented proportions, but when you need to replace over half a team due to a virus outbreak, you’ve got another thing coming. Don Mattingly not only overcame that massive hurdle, but he guided an afterthought Marlins team back to the Postseason. Miami could pose a threat in a three-game series, and their skipper is to thank for positioning them there.
     
    American League Reliever of the Year: Liam Hendriks (runners up: Brad Hand, James Karinchak)
     
    Operating as the closer for one of the best teams in baseball, Hendriks got plenty of opportunity to perform in key situations. He racked up 14 saves while posting a 13.1 K/9. He also owned a 1.78 ERA and had an even better 1.14 FIP. All of the strikeouts, none of the free passes, the Aussie continues to be one of the best in baseball.
     
    National League Reliever of the Year: Devin Williams (runners up: Edwin Diaz, Raisel Iglesias)
     
    It was nice to see the Mets Edwin Diaz rebound from 2019 and be in the running here, but the Brewers rookie was among the most dominant pitchers the sport has ever seen with his work in 2020. He didn’t pitch the 9th with Milwaukee having the services of Josh Hader, but Williams was often the guy in key spots. His efficiency only fueled his dominance and taking home another award here is only fitting.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    All offseason the talk was that the Minnesota Twins needed an ace. Someone that could slot into the rotation at the level of Jose Berrios or higher would fit that bill. There was plenty of consternation when it took moving Brusdar Graterol to land the piece, but Kenta Maeda is here to stay.
     
    The Dodgers signed Maeda out of Japan and his first season in the majors came at 28-years-old. Despite being relied upon for over 500 innings while with Los Angeles, Maeda was often shuffled back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. Given their overall pitching strength it was a luxury LA had, but one that wore on the Japanese star.
     
    Deemed expendable this offseason and enticed by a flame throwing prospect, the Dodgers made the move and Minnesota got their guy. Dubbed a number three in the Dodgers rotation behind the likes of Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, there was always plenty of upside for the Twins to exploit. Fast forward to the final week of the 2020 Major League Baseball season and Minnesota seems to have found their ace.
     
    Through 10 starts Maeda owns a sparkling 2.52 ERA. He has a career best 10.5 K/9 and also is allowing a career low 1.5 BB/9. He leads the league with a 5.3 H/9 and also has a league leading 0.758 WHIP. He’s got a 5-1 record in the decisions column, and Minnesota is 7-3 when he takes the ball. He’s yet to miss a quality start in any turn, and he’s gone at least 6.0 IP in seven of his 10 total outings.
     
    No matter how you define the role of an ace Kenta Maeda has embodied it this season. He’s been dominant. He’s been reliable. He’s been consistent. Now it also looks like he’ll be rewarded as Minnesota’s game one starter in the Wild Card round of the Postseason. Starting on Wednesday the 23rd against the Tigers, he lines up to toe take the ball when the Twins open a home playoff series.
     
    There could certainly be some handwringing over the fact that it’s Maeda and not Jose Berrios being entrusted with the opportunity to set the tone in a short series, however this elevation of ability is probably good for both of them. Berrios really struggled out of the gate this year for the Twins, and despite being dominant of late, he had an uphill battle to climb. It was hoped that 2020 would be another step forward for Jose, and while the sum of all parts may represent as much, it’s again been a tale of two halves.
     
    As Minnesota looks to rebuild their rotation again in 2021, with plenty of departures pending, it will be a welcome relief that Berrios is joined by another constant in Maeda. Neither of these guys will crack true ace status across baseball, reserved for just the top ten or so arms in the sport. However, both can pitch as staff aces, and the ability to be interchangeable or play off of one another is something that Rocco Baldelli and his staff have to be excited about for years to come.
     
    It’s certainly not easy moving on from a prospect that has been talked up for so long. When you have an opportunity to cash in for proven, upper level talent though, you have to jump at it. Maybe Brusdar Graterol will turn out to be more than Maeda ever is, but by that time Minnesota will be long past the current window they’re looking to capitalize on.
     
    You wanted an ace Twins fans, and he’s here, in the form of Kenta Maeda.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins begin a four-game set tonight in Chicago, and it’s arguably their most important series of the year. How much importance lies in the amount of weight put on Postseason positioning, however.
     
    After sweeping the Cleveland Indians over the weekend Rocco Baldelli’s club has all but put a nail in that proverbial coffin. Terry Francona’s squad has another tilt with the White Sox yet to play and cannibalizing divisional foes shouldn’t help them climb back into the race. That leaves Minnesota and Chicago, four games, division on the line.
     
    Here’s the deal, there was never a point in which it seemed in doubt that the Twins would miss the Postseason. They are one of the five best teams in baseball, and an argument for the top two is more than healthy. Despite a midseason skid, even in a sprint, they’ve been well positioned the entire way. It’s that positioning, and exactly what they’re playing for, that remains to be seen.
     
    Winning the AL Central in just 60 games loses some of its luster. Having home field advantage with no fans, and for just one three-game series prior to moving to a neutral site waters down impact. What Baldelli and his club must not lose sight of however, is understanding exactly what they can control.
     
    Right now, it appears that some combination of the White Sox, Indians, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees could all be included amongst the bottom half of the Postseason clubs. Two of those are well known divisional foes, while the other two are regular juggernauts on an annual basis. None of their positioning is determinable solely by Minnesota, however.
     
    If there’s a “lighter” inclusion come playoff time, it’d have to be argued that the Toronto Blue Jays qualify. Minnesota trying to play a matchup game seems like a losing proposition however, and a shift in mental makeup that generally would thrive off competition. Short of playing guys through injury, it’s time to go for it.
     
    Winning this series against the White Sox, as they have done twice already this year, should be viewed as a must. Go grab hold of the AL Central and chase down the Tampa Bay Rays in hopes of landing the best seed in the American League. From there, setting yourself up for familiarity during the most volatile series makes too much sense.
     
    First through fourth gets home field advantage in the opening round of the Postseason. Having secured that while winning the division sets a momentum building precedence going into somewhat of a crapshoot. There’s a definite boost playing within the confines of familiarity and having the ability to escape the game outside of a hotel room.
     
    Regardless who Minnesota finds in the opposing dugout come October, they’ll all have more warts. Cleveland and Chicago have been routinely bested in the regular season, while the Astros and Yankees have pitching and injury question marks of their own, respectively. As was thought to be the case going into the year, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s club should have a leg up on virtually anyone they square off against.
     
    The sky doesn’t fall if the Twins come up on the short end of the four-game set on the South Side. That said, it’s a series that should be managed with the highest priority and with no stones left unturned. Time to get it done and begin riding a wave that ends in a parade.
     
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  9. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins came into 2020 having set a Major League record in home runs, had one of the best seasons in franchise history, and with an offense poised to set the world on fire. As with everything else this year, very little has gone as expected. Now on the final day to make some roster swaps, it isn’t time to push the panic button.
     
    Major League Baseball bumped the trade deadline back to August 31st this year in order to accommodate a sensible timeline amidst a 60-game sprint. Minnesota currently stands at 20-15 looking up at both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians in the AL Central division. While division titles are nice, they couldn’t mean less this year. The top seeds will still face a club with a winning record, and they’ll do so in just a three-game series.
     
    I love the idea of adding Trevor Bauer to this club, solely because it’s my belief he’s the only pitcher capable of slotting into the top of Minnesota’s rotation. Although he’s a short-term rental and would make something like 5-8 starts, maybe the familiarity helps to re-sign him this offseason. Outside of that, any move should come with a future caveat as well.
     
    Next season the Twins will need to replace three-fifths of their Opening Day starting rotation. Trevor May is an impending free agent, and Nelson Cruz’s status remains up in the air. While the core of this club remains strong, there’s certainly pieces that will need to be shuffled around. For Minnesota to target an asset in the midst of a volatile year, and only have eyes on making it pay off immediately, would be a misstep.
     
    In any season there’s a relative amount of luck when it comes to winning a World Series. Doing so amongst a 16-team playoff field, with no fans, and potentially no home field to speak of, is a crapshoot at best. That doesn’t water down winning a ring this year, everyone is dealing with the same conditions, but it does make operating in a traditional sense irrational.
     
    Maybe a reunion with Lance Lynn works out. He’s a really good pitcher that really didn’t like his situation back in 2018. Maybe Dylan Bundy and his slider are another weapon for Wes Johnson and the Minnesota brain trust to deploy. Those are the types of moves that have future benefit too. Do you go all in on Josh Hader? That’s a great arm in play as well. No matter what the Twins do though, having more benefit than just 2020 has to be part of the outcome.
     
    There’s no doubt this club is going to make the Postseason. There’s no doubt the healthy version of their lineup is a force to be reckoned with. The greatest doubt is how it all comes together the rest of the way, and then when 2021 rolls around, what remains when the dust has settled?
     
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  10. Ted Schwerzler
    This week is quite possibly the most important the Minnesota Twins will have embarked upon in 2020. Monday represents the halfway point in the 60-game sprint, while a week from then is the 2020 Trade Deadline. With plenty of guys on the shelf, it’s imperative Rocco’s boys keep winning and get healthy.
     
    Starting out with three games on the road against the Cleveland Indians, Minnesota will miss both Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac but deal with Shane Bieber anyways. After leaving Ohio, they’ll travel to Michigan for a four-game set with the lowly Detroit Tigers. In terms of opponents, there couldn’t be more of a stark contrast, but putting distance between themselves and The Tribe will be reliant on early week wins and later expected results.
     
    Leading the division by 1.5 games as of August 24, Minnesota is in a very good position to make the Postseason. This team’s goals are significantly loftier than that however, and it’s in that reality that the situation off the field may prove even more dire. Right now, Baldelli’s lineup is void of 33% of the Opening Day group, and the pitching staff seems to take a new hit each day. The latter is an issue, but the former could prove to be a real problem.
     
    Josh Donaldson has been shelved since July 31, playing just seven games in his debut season with his new team. Miguel Sano swapped positions to accommodate him, and following a COVID positive, it took Sano roughly two weeks into the season to get his bat going. Donaldson currently owns a .614 OPS on the year and hasn’t settled in at the plate. If he misses much more beyond this week, expecting him to be acclimated and contribute from the outset of October would be somewhat of a fool’s errand.
     
    Ryan Jeffers is the future tandem partner with Mitch Garver anyways, so ushering him in hasn’t been a problem. Garver also hasn’t gotten going however, and while it looked like he was starting to find it, the intercostal injury could cost him ample time to lock in. The injury is just a grade 1 problem, but it still remains to be seen when he’ll be back on the field.
     
    In the outfield Byron Buxton has been among the Twins greatest assets this season. It’s a sigh of relief that his shoulder injury doesn’t involve the surgically repaired labrum, but it seemed to come out of nowhere and anything more than a 10-day breather would seem problematic. Jake Cave has not stepped up at the plate, and both Rosario and Kepler on the corners have yet to consistently contribute.
     
    On the mound there’s a reinforcement coming in the form of Michael Pineda. However, Cody Stashak has been one of the club’s best relievers and him going down out of nowhere was a blow. Zack Littell worked plenty of high leverage a season ago, and now an elbow injury could prove to be a serious problem. Tyler Clippard gets bit by unluckiness being hit by a comebacker, and Homer Bailey has yet to do anything of substance for Minnesota. To say that the shuffling on the mound is starting to wear thing would probably be putting it lightly.
     
    There’s not much in the form of starting pitching options that will be available at the deadline, and that means Minnesota will either need to stay internal or go the route of relief to bolster their staff for the stretch run. I’m not yet considering who is brought in being impactful to the same extent as who can get healthy. This week is a critical juncture for the players and training staff to get bodies back on the field.
     
    Ideally Buxton misses the minimum, Donaldson returns to the lineup, and Clippard has now more than a bruise needing to heal. This club has all the talent in the world, but there’s only so many injuries one roster can truly withstand.
     
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  11. Ted Schwerzler
    Last night Fernando Tatis Jr. got a grooved fastball in a 3-0 count and sent it into orbit. The San Diego Padres were already up seven late in the game, and with the bases loaded, his grand slam put it way out of reach. Texas Rangers manager Chris Woodward, he of the crotchety old age of 44, took exception to it.
     
    Woodward told reporters after the game, "I didn't like it personally. You're up by 7 in the 8th inning, it's typically not a good time 3-0. It's kind of the way we were all raised in the game. But ... the norms are being challenged." He literally was asking for his opponent to quit playing. After Major League Baseball marketed their young talent wonderfully during the 2019 season with the slogan “Let the kids play” this is where we’re at.
     
    I have no problem with baseball having unwritten rules. I think there’s a certain level of affection I have reserved specifically for the nuances in the sport. By and large though, the vast majority of said unwritten rules are dated and should be re-evaluated. Retaliation in the form of beanballs has long been silly. Bunting late in a game solely to break up a no-hit bid is one I think should draw some ire. If a pitcher wants to get on you for walking unnecessarily over his mound, so be it. Suggesting there’s counts in which the pitcher should know what the batter is doing though, and even further, completely expecting them to give up, is not a good look.
     
    More often than not a 3-0 count results in a take due to the game scenario. Unless the pitch is absolutely grooved, that’s not a situation in which you want to miss and make an out. If a pitcher is going to throw a get-me-over fastball though, by all means the batter should be locked in and ready to ride it into orbit.
     
    When Fernando Tatis Jr. did just that, his own manager Jayce Tingler missed the mark in defending him. Instead of noting that there was a sign missed, he simply could’ve said that he put a great swing on the pitch. Sure, missing signs is suboptimal, but that’s not the talking point in that specific spot. It’s like the basketball coach wanting the guard to work the offense, but he steps back and drains a three, which then causes exhale anyways.
     

     
    There were takes all over the place in the wake of Tatis’ performance. Many of them correctly called out Woodward as off base and old school. Former Twins pitcher Phil Hughes chimed in comparing the situation to that of a football team taking a knee. The difference between all of those types of comparisons however is that baseball is the lone sport not dictated by time. When you’re up against a clock, strategy involved suggests killing the seconds and minutes in order to get you closer to victory. Baseball has outs, 27 of them, all finite. The only strategy when it comes to results in baseball is scoring more than the opposition before your self-inflicted missed opportunities run out.
     

     
    If you want to be mad at a guy for swinging 3-0 at a bad pitch and giving up an opportunity to get on base, so be it. If you want to get mad at a guy for putting the ball in the seats, under any circumstances, by all means hop aboard the leather and ride it right on outta here.
     
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  12. Ted Schwerzler
    You’ve heard of the Devil being in the details, well finding what advantage the Twins have crafted in 2020 may come from a surprising place, their defense. After finishing 23rd overall in team defense last season, Minnesota currently finds themselves 2nd in 2020.
     
    We knew many of the problems from a year ago. Jorge Polanco was not a good defensive shortstop, particularly coming in on the ball. Luis Arraez was stretched going to his right, and the outfield suffered every game Byron Buxton had to miss. Bringing in Josh Donaldson was expected to be a boost for the infield, and a healthy Buck would be a great remedy on the grass. Not all of that has played out though, and yet, here we are.
     
    Minnesota has gotten just 7 games from Donaldson in his first year with the club. Despite that, their 14 DRS is 3rd in the big leagues and leads the American League. Byron Buxton has already been worth 6 DRS on his own, and while Polanco has been worth -3 DRS, his 0.7 UZR represents the only positive mark of his entire career. Luis Arraez was worth -8 DRS in just shy of 400 innings during 2019. This year, he’s been worth 2 DRS in 157 frames.
     
    This isn’t just an individual player thing though, and it’s clear Minnesota is taking an analytical approach to cutting down base hits. With 322 shifts, or 42.4% this year, Rocco Baldelli’s club ranks 10th in the majors. Last season they shifted just 35.5% of the time. Against righties the Twins are shifting 33% of the time, or virtually the same frequency they did a year ago. Against lefties though, they’ve gone from 36.4% in 2019 to 53.2% in 2020.
     

     
    Thinking about configuration, left-handed shifts also bring some interesting possibilities to consider. Miguel Sano is holding down first base for the first time in his career. He’s been caught a couple of time straying to far from the bag. In a shift however, he’s solely responsible for the line. Luis Arraez, who was challenged going up the middle last season, plays a roving right field with Polanco up the middle to his right. Whether it’s Donaldson or Ehire Adrianza at the hot corner, there’s a plus defender standing near the shortstop hole against a lefty.
     
    In the outfield, Minnesota again has made tweaks with Byron Buxton. In a recent article for The Athletic Aaron Gleeman talked about how the centerfielder is starting deeper than he ever has. With the ability to come in on virtually anything, this gives him the opportunity to find the wall and remain more in control when playing balls near it. Eddie Rosario looks the part of a healthier left-fielder, and Max Kepler asserted himself as a stalwart while pulling double time last year.
     
    Thus far we haven’t seen the Twins offense click on all cylinders, and there hasn’t been a certainty to the entirety of the rotation either. While the bullpen has flashed very well at points, there have been cracks on that front also. If there’s a tried and true narrative for 2020 it’s that this team shows up with the glove. Errors are a dated way to measure success, but from the most basic number the club has committed just two through their first 22 games.
     
    Pitching and hitting can go in slumps, but defense is completely mental beyond the overall athleticism needed to compete. Give it to the Twins for being completely locked in there on a nightly basis.
     
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  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Today WCCO posted a story regarding the Minnesota Twins longstanding logo of Minnie and Paul shaking hands. The depiction is of two individuals representing Minneapolis and St. Paul coming together over what would be the Mississippi River. In the ongoing effort to advance diversity and inclusion however, the imagery is now be called for questioning.
     
    While not a Twins employee, Dr. Charles Crutchfield acts as the Twins consulting dermatologist. He offers that the pair need a fresh look that, “honors and reflects the team’s players and its fans from different backgrounds. He goes on to say the change is “long overdue.”
     
    Although I initially posted my thoughts on Twitter saying in short, “This is a no for me,” there’s a bit more nuance to unpack here. I couldn’t be more supportive of initiatives looking to drive a heightened opportunity for diversity and acceptance. Further, I remain open to the idea that we can revisit history and even change the way we both celebrate and cherish it. What I think those avenues provide however, are legitimate opportunities for growth and advancement. What I think should be avoided is an agenda designed solely to spark a false sense of need.
    In short, the imagery of Minnie and Paul couldn’t be more unassuming and less offensive. While there is no indication of a female or person of color within the logo, suggesting a need to create that storyline for the sake of diversity falsely applies an impact of presumed consciousness. We don’t need to be told whether the two individuals are trans, their sexual orientation, or their political beliefs. It’s a picture of two communities coming together to support one Twins Territory.
    This story appears to be the work of WCCO sports reporter Norman Seawright. I didn’t see a name attached in the byline, but he chimed in on Twitter. The initial response was that a change in skin tone of the individual on a logo could “inspire someone who looks like me (Norman is African America) and isn’t into baseball to give it a shot.”
    I have no idea what the world looks like through the eyes of someone in a minority class, and I’ll never pretend to understand. What I think is fair is suggesting that there’s a leap in believing inclusivity is spawned more by creating a talking point in an image moreso than actual initiatives that reflect genuine action. Almost more than any other sport, baseball’s on-field diversity is unmatched. We still need to do a better job stretching that to all other facets of the game and that remains a work in progress.
    Maybe I’m way off on this, but channeling focus into something that should be found in no way offensive looks like a hollow workaround to a greater good. What are your thoughts?
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    You could call him a former Uber driver, but you’d be selling it short. You could call him a prospect, but he probably never garnered that status. Instead, Randy Dobnak is a self-made grinder that went from small-college West Virginia to one of the best pitchers on a staff that supports one of Major League Baseball’s best teams.
     
    After spending the better part of three seasons in the minor leagues as an undrafted free agent, Dobnak will toe the rubber tonight in what equates to his backyard. From South Park, Pennsylvania, Dobnak takes the ball for the Minnesota Twins against his hometown Pittsburgh Pirates. Something out of a storybook, this narrative couldn’t have played out better, but if you haven’t been expecting it you might also have not been watching.
     
    Pitching for three different levels in the Minnesota Twins minor league system last season Dobnak posted a 2.07 ERA 7.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. No level was too big for him, and each stop he made the job continued to get done. Then he was promoted to the majors and got even better. With the Twins a year ago Dobnak owned a 1.59 ERA 7.3 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. After putting just 28.1 IP under his belt at the highest level, he was called upon to pitch game two of the American League Division Series against the New York Yankees.
     
    Despite all of the success a year ago, nothing was guaranteed for 2020. Dobnak was on the outside looking in when it came to a rotation spot or even a big-league job. The Twins had acquired the likes of Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, and Homer Bailey to round out the rotation. COVID-19 had threatened the season as a whole, and the man with the mustache became somewhat of a forgotten commodity once again.
     
    Now two turns through the rotation in 2020, Dobnak is reminding those around the sport once again, his title is Major League Pitcher. He owns a 1.00 ERA allowing a single run in nine innings on six hits. He’s fanned seven and given up an uncharacteristic four walks. When he steps on the mound in the bottom half of the first inning at PNC Park however, none of that will matter. It’ll be another night of work for a guy that’s become a lunch pail type ready to get the job done each time he’s tasked with doing so.
     
    Although every team is looking for their ace that throws 100 mph and blows the doors of every batter they see, it’s clear there’s different ways to get the job done at the highest level. Dobnak knows who he is as a pitcher, and that’s probably why he continues to see success. One of the most light-hearted personalities you’ll see postgame, Randy genuinely enjoys playing baseball and his mental makeup allows him to never let the moment get too big.
     
    Tonight, some of his biggest fans including his wife and dad won’t be in attendance. In fact, no one will be. I can’t imagine that Randy envisioned his first start in Pittsburgh to be without anyone in the stadium, but you can bet there will be plenty of eyes glued on him attending from their couches. It’s a moment he’s earned, one that he won’t allow to get bigger than him, and if any previous indications are to be believed, one he’ll rise to the occasion of.
     
    Every team in baseball would like to have a Randy Dobnak. Someone unphased by the situation, routinely able to produce, and always willing to soak it all in. Unfortunately, not all Uber drivers turn out to be Major League Pitchers.
     
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  15. Ted Schwerzler
    This morning Major League Baseball was hit with another blow. The St. Louis Cardinals had two players test positive for COVID-19 with an immediate fallout of postponement of action against the Milwaukee Brewers. We’re playing through a pandemic here however, so what really was the plan?
     
    When Rob Manfred and the owners finally came to agreement on economics it appeared, they also had sorted out safety protocols. What it seems they didn’t have ironed out was the logistics surrounding continuation of play. It’s one thing to suggest that a season be decided on winning percentage if not all teams get 60 games in. That can’t happen if some only play 30 or 40 games.
     
    These teams are tested every other day, or potentially daily in some instances. Rapid tests are taken at will, and in the case of the Nationals Juan Soto, relatively indicative of what the saliva tests may show. What has to be determined, and seems like it remains up in the air, is what constitutes an outbreak and what doesn’t.
     
    Last week the Miami Marlins decided via group text to play through a game despite four players testing positive. They allowed the virus to run rampant within their clubhouse and now have over 60% of their 30-man active roster dealing with positive results. Something like that isn’t going to be overcome by a 3-man taxi squad, and very clearly isn’t as easy as calling on players from the alternate site either.
     
    On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals had just two players test positive following their departure from Minnesota on Wednesday night. To postpone action against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday seems to negate the planning MLB put in place. The 3-man taxi squad was not designed to account for injury, that’s why there’s an additional 30 players at the alternate site. What the taxi squad was talked about doing was providing an immediate replacement should someone need to go on the COVID-related IL.
     
    Each team has up to three players traveling with them to all away games. If they aren’t going to be immediately substituted onto the active roster when a positive tests appears, then there’s little reason for them to be subjected to travel and increase virus contraction at all.
     
    Since the beginning Major League Baseball’s goal has been to play an unprecedented season amidst a global pandemic. That’s going up against some significantly substantial odds, but if you’re going to operate like that there has to be a level of “next man up.” Postponing each game in which a test or two come back positive on any given day will certainly fail to give this season a chance.
     
    Maybe this was always going to be the probable outcome. We still don’t have this under control across the country, so the feasibility of baseball being doable remained a longshot anyways. However, as unfortunate, and competitively unjust as it is, the show must go on. Either Rob Manfred has to decide that taxi squads have a purpose to fill in rosters (and maybe even expand that group), or even a limited number of positives will bring the sport to its knees.
     
    It has been a tenuous start to this whole thing, and there won’t be much more opportunity to get it right. Step back and get it together now, or we’ll continue to go through the motions on something that fizzles out shortly anyways.
     
    Side note: Young Bat Co. is giving away a Nelson Cruz bat mug!
     
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  16. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the winter Twins fans clamored for starting pitching. After losing to the Yankees in the Postseason again, a constant bugaboo was deemed the source of weakness. Needing an ace, the Twins sought out some arms. Swinging a deal for Kenta Maeda was nice, but it may be Rich Hill that represents the haul.
     
    Sure, he’s 40 years old but try telling Nelson Cruz that’s a milestone anyone should care about. The reality is that Hill has both been often hurt and often good. Good probably isn’t even a fair assessment, he’s been downright great. His 3.00 ERA dating back to 2016 is the 6th best mark in Major League Baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he posted an outstanding 2.45 ERA across 13 starts for the Dodgers, and he hasn’t had a year with less than double-digit strikeouts per nine innings since 2012.
     
    In a world where velocity is king, Hill laughs at the notion. He flips his fastball up there at an average of 90.6 mph, and that’s not much of a decline considering the peak was 92.9 mph in 2012 with the Red Sox. He’s learned to live with what he has, and there’s very little surprise in how he’ll attack you.
     
    Last season Hill utilized just two pitches. His four seem fastball was chosen 52% of the time while his big breaker was utilized at a 45.8% clip. The velo change on that curveball is staggering, dropping 15 mph all the way down to an average of 74.5. It’s not that those two types of pitches are anything special, but it is that when they derive from Hill’s hand, they’re nothing short of majestic.
     
    Hill’s fastball spin ranks in the 91st percentile, but it’s the bender that gets the love here. The curveball has an average spin rate of 2919 RPM, or 4th best among pitchers that threw at least 300 of them a season ago. It’s in the 95th percentile across the league, and it’s why Hill’s hard-hit rate is an elite 98 percentile tally.
     
    That curveball is a thing of beauty in and of itself. With a combined 12 inches of vertical and horizontal movement above league average, barreling it remains one of the league’s toughest tasks. It’s why a hitter can step in and know they have just two pitches to look for, but still be frozen on a meaty fastball right down the gut.
     
    You might argue there’s nothing flashy about what Hill does on the mound, and that’s probably a fair assessment. There is a level of intrigue or a mystique feeling about how he competes, however. The stuff may lull you to sleep but being that dominant by going virtually against the grain is something we don’t see in baseball anymore.
     
    Minnesota brought Hill in to bolster a rotation down the stretch. Now he’ll work right from the jump and could end up being the heart of it. When the dust settles, he’ll look to add onto his 53 Postseason innings, and those that add onto the 15 he’s pitched in the World Series could certainly culminate with a ring.
     
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  17. Ted Schwerzler
    We’ve finally made it and baseball is back in just a matter of days. The Minnesota Twins will kick off this 60-game sprint in Chicago, and they’ll look to distance themselves from a team looking to prove they’re ready. I put out a 162-game projection back in February, but with so many logistical changes and update is necessary.
     
    I don’t foresee any changes in the positioning among the teams from where I had them at the beginning of the year, but we’re obviously only going to play roughly one-third of the games now. There’s significantly more volatility involved, and it will play against Minnesota more than any other club.
     
    That said, here’s how the division shakes out this season, and in parenthesis what the PECOTA projections are for each team in this scenario:
     
    Minnesota Twins 36-24 (35-25)
     
    There’s no argument to be made that Minnesota isn’t the best team in this division. They have arguably the best lineup in baseball and aren’t far behind with their bullpen. The rotation is cemented in depth and there’s plenty of candidates to be a top-tier arm as well. Josh Donaldson is a massive addition and having Rich Hill from the jump should be a nice boost. The Twins have stiffer competition in the White Sox this year, but it’s hard not to see the Indians having taken a step backwards.
     
    Cleveland Indians 32-28 (32-28)
     
    While it won’t be long before Chicago overtakes Cleveland, I’m not sure it happens in 2020. Cleveland still has an awesome rotation at the top with Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. Clevinger is already a health risk though, and Carlos Carrasco’s return is a question mark. Save for Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, there’s also concerns about star power in the lineup. Should this club stumble out of the gate, maybe Lindor gets moved at the deadline.
     
    Chicago White Sox 31-29 (31-29)
     
    I’m all in on Luis Robert, he’s going to be a stud. What his career ends up being remains to be seen, and while I think he could break out right away, there’s still plenty more that needs to go right for the White Sox. Lucas Giolito faded at times in 2019, and neither Dallas Keuchel nor Gio Gonzalez are impact pitchers anymore. Yasmani Grandal is a huge addition, but someone had to supplement the flash in the pan that was James McCann a year ago. The Southsiders will be knocking at the door soon, and the shortened season helps their chances, but give it one more year.
     
    Kansas City Royals 24-36 (25-35)
     
    Down here you’re really competing for the best of the worst, and I’m not certain what way these final two shake out. It’s my belief that the Royals slide will be less drastic than the volatility of the Tigers prospects. Kansas City isn’t good, and they aren’t exciting either. There are some pieces here though that can squeak out enough to stay out of the bottom spot in the division.
     
    Detroit Tigers 22-38 (26-34)
     
    I’m really excited to see what Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Alex Faedo, and Riley Greene can do. Unfortunately, none of those guys will be on the Opening Day roster, and while watching Miguel Cabrera chase down records is fun, there’s nothing else of note here. I don’t think Ron Gardenhire is the right guy to push a prospect-laden team forwards as that’s where he ended his tenure with the Twins, so he may see his way out around the time new faces make their debuts.
     
    In case you missed it, here’s how I have the yearly awards and Postseason shaking out as well:
     
    Award Winners and World Series Victors
     
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  18. Ted Schwerzler
    We’ve made it, we have finally made it. The long-running national nightmare seems to be nearly over. On Friday night we will have a Twins baseball game that counts. Back in late June I projected the 30-man Opening Day roster for Minnesota. A few changes have been made and it’s time for an update.
     
    While Summer Camp has been relatively uneventful for the Twins, there have been a few key developments. Thankfully, Byron Buxton’s injury scare doesn’t seem like it will hold him back. Luis Arraez also tweaked his knee but when then immediately all systems go. Miguel Sano got a late start due to COVID-19 tests despite being asymptomatic, but he’s been back for a few days now as well.
     
    Only Nick Gordon and Willians Astudillo remain on the COVID related Injured List for the Twins. The former was never likely to make the Opening Day roster, while the latter definitely opens up a spot for Rocco Baldelli. Having just requested his release, rotation candidate Jhoulys Chacin also generates an opportunity for someone.
    Let’s get into who should be expected to make the club:
     
    Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Alex Avila
     
    No surprises here. Astudillo is still looking to generate two negative COVID-19 tests which makes him ineligible to participate. With a catcher being available every night on the three-man taxi squad, carrying two to open the year is just fine.
     
    Infield (6): Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, Ehire Adrianza, Travis Blankenhorn
     
    If there’s a guy that benefits from Astudillo’s absence, it’s probably Travis Blankenhorn. I loved what he could’ve provided during regular Spring Training, and think his skillset translates perfectly to a year needing depth. He can play second and third base while also having some outfield flexibility. The bat has pop and while he’s not a top tier prospect, there’s plenty of talent to contribute at the big-league level.
     
    Outfield (6): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez, LaMonte Wade Jr.
     
    This group adds one to it in the form of LaMonte Wade Jr. He’s had a strong Summer Camp and is showing that he’s more than just an on-base machine. Minnesota doesn’t have a true replacement in centerfield outside of Max Kepler, but both Cave and Wade should rotate in on the corners prior to any activation of the top prospects.
     
    Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz
     
    As has always been the case, this one is as easy as it gets. Minnesota’s leader is ready to go following a very strong Summer Camp
     
    Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey
     
    No changes here from the original group, but Jake Odorizzi slides back at least a spot in the rotation due to back stiffness. He’s going to have his last Summer Camp appearance shifted, and he’ll likely be moved off the Saturday game in Chicago.
     
    Bullpen (10): Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Zack Littell, Tyler Clippard, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer
     
    This group decreased by one with me no longer including Lewis Thorpe. I think the goal would be to have him throwing regular pens and staying stretched out at the alternate site in St. Paul. He was the first rotation option jettisoned during original Spring Training, and both Dobnak and Smeltzer are ahead of him still. Would have been nice to include Chacin as depth, but he’s miscast as a long reliever anyways.
     
    There you have it, your 2020 Minnesota Twins.
     
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  19. Ted Schwerzler
    There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins are one of baseball’s most exciting teams. Their bullpen should rank among the league’s best, and the lineup is one that provides envy to virtually every other group out there. Kicking off a weird 2020 season though, they may need to make some changes.
     
    When Byron Buxton went down in a heap after tracking a fly ball on Monday night the worst was feared. Fortunately, it’s just a mid-foot sprain, and while that may have some lingering effects, there’s still reason to believe the recovery could be sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for the Twins, their starting first basemen is uninjured but has yet to show up to Summer Camp.
     
    Miguel Sano received a positive test diagnosis upon returning to Target Field. Quarantined and awaiting two negative COVID-19 tests before his return, the runway to ramp up for the season is running out. The Twins travel to Chicago in five days, play an exhibition against the Cubs in six, and open their 2020 campaign against the White Sox in eight. Calling a return that quickly rushed would be putting it lightly.
     
    So, where does that leave us?
     
    Let’s tackle the more probable scenario, who plays first base? That answer should be relatively straightforward with utility man Marwin Gonzalez sliding in. MarGo has started 154 games at first base in his career and has logged over 1,400 innings there. He’s still best suited in left field, but there really isn’t a position besides shortstop that he’s overly stretched in. Certainly, Sano’s bat would be preferred, but having Marwin trend back towards the .900 OPS he compiled while listening to the trash can would be a nice resurgence.
     
    Assuming Buxton isn’t back for Opening Day, or even a few games thereafter, Gonzalez is actually piece of that puzzle as well. Sliding Max Kepler to center and filling a corner spot with the utility man makes a ton of sense. With him already in the lineup, the next turn would logically be Jake Cave. While LaMonte Wade Jr. has a strong on-base presence, Cave is the more complete player. He should be avoided in center but has a good enough bat to play on the corners.
     
    Last season Cave finished with an .805 OPS, but what’s even more impressive is having done that after bottoming out at a .615 OPS prior to a May demotion. From his mid-June return through the end of the year he posted an .855 OPS. In 141 plate appearances from July 7 onward he generated a very nice .964 mark. The bat may be inconsistent, but it’s plenty capable.
     
    Both of these should be relatively short-term scenarios. For Sano, we see the effects of COVID-19 and what the virus is going to do to this season. A player with no symptoms tests positive and costs the team their services over a specific stretch of games. In a 60-game season, that missed time could be catastrophic, especially if said player is Josh Donaldson or Jose Berrios.
     
    On the Buxton side, contingency plans in the outfield remain a must for Minnesota. Unfortunate and unlucky as he is health wise, any absence by Byron will need to be evaluated in the short and long term. Immediately a Cave or Wade replacement makes sense. Knowing that him being out of the lineup opens a corner spot, both Brent Rooker and Trevor Larnach could then find themselves in the mix for a more prolonged absence.
     
    Let’s hope we aren’t discussing these scenarios too long into 2020, and their realities are few and far between. Minnesota has a shot at the World Series this year, but they’ll need all contributors for as much time as necessary.
     
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  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Major League Baseball is going to try its hardest to play a 60-game season in 2020. Starting on July 24, the Minnesota Twins will look to repeat as AL Central Division champs, and this time they’ll hope the Postseason run is a bit longer. If Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to take that next step, they’ll need a big contribution from staff ace Jose Berrios.
     
    For the past few years, I’ve wondered about the possibility of Berrios winning a Cy Young. Certainly, there’s plenty of strong competition, and Gerrit Cole now being with the New York Yankees likely makes him the frontrunner. Berrios’ own chances haven’t been thwarted by the opposition in recent years as much as they’ve been of his own doing.
     
    Coming into 2020 Bovada lists Berrios as a middle-of-the-road candidate with 14/1 odds. Despite two consecutive All-Star game appearances, the Puerto Rican has never garnered a Cy Young vote. For that to change consistency will be key and avoiding a late-season fade is a must. In a 60-game sprint though, should that even be a fear?
     
    Over the offseason Minnesota reworked Berrios’ training plan and helped to institute goals resulting more in endurance with season-long stamina in mind. June has routinely been Berrios’ best month, but August comes with a career 5.96 ERA in 21 starts, with another mediocre 4.64 ERA mark across 20 in September/October. Last season Jose was strong out of the gate, saw a brief two game speedbump, then dialed in before his routine slowdown.
     
    What if the Twins can capture just that middle ground in the year ahead?
     
    Minnesota obviously plays the beginning of its traditional seasons in less than sweltering heat. That didn’t seem to hamper Berrios in 2019 however, as he posted a 2.97 ERA across his first six starts. By start eight he was back down to a 2.53 ERA prior to an ugly outing against the Angels. Focusing on a snapshot of the mid-summer months of June and July, Jose put together a double-digit dipping of 10 outings that would turn plenty of heads.
     
    Across ten starts from June 6 through July 31 the Minnesota hurler owned a 2.23 ERA with a .609 OPS against. He had a 61/16 K/BB in 64.2 IP. It was also the only two-month stretch of the season that he went back-to-back starts without allowing a homer more than once. The question for Wes Johnson to help solve is how can both the pitcher and the team extract that exact performance.
     
    There’s a ton of differences that 2020 will present due to playing a season during the midst of a global pandemic. While it’s a positive to have nice weather out of the gate, there won’t be any room for tune up type outings. Summer Camp has provided intrasquad action but will only feature one exhibition game and given the proximity to the Opener, Berrios would be unlikely to pitch.
     
    As a fast starter, maybe the best of all worlds can come together for Jose and he’ll be able to provide the calming presence a true ace brings to the mound. Whether or not that results in a Cy Young will be determined by a whole host out outside factors. Focused only on the guy wearing number 17 for Minnesota, it’s hard to see this shortened season as a negative.
     
    We may not yet figure out if the new training tactics bear fruit without the rigors of a traditional 162-game marathon, but the hope would be that there aren’t questions about declining velocity or uncertain effectiveness. The Twins pitching staff in its entirety is now better than it’s ever been, and it’s time for the smiling 26-year-old to lead the charge.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    For month we watched a public mudslinging fest take place between MLB owners and the Players Union. While the two sides have always been at odds, it’s leadership that the sport’s commissioner is supposed to provide. Rob Manfred may be a very intelligent man, but you wouldn’t know if looking at the results of his actions.
     
    Major League Baseball owners are represented by one man, Manfred. He was chosen having come from a labor negotiations background. With the sport likely coming to an ugly labor dispute following the conclusion of the 2021 season, it was Manfred who would be tasked at following in Selig’s footsteps but not making the same mistakes. Unfortunately, we are now here, a place that has given us an unprecedented set of parameters, and a terribly worse set of mistakes.
     
    While money was made out to be the reason players were publicly disparaged by those who own the teams, a reality is that any season in 2020 would be played during a worldwide pandemic. Although the rest of the world has done an exemplary job of flattening their curve and combatting the virus, this one is still seeing new records every day. For baseball to be played in that structure, players wanted their fairly agreed upon pay, but more importantly a safe environment in which to work.
     
    After the dust settled on economical issues, we were given resumption. Now six days into the new Summer Camp (which mind you, has a sponsor and branding intended to drive those owner’s immediate revenue), we’ve already got a long list of avoidable mistakes. Manfred and MLB have not come through with the necessary PPE in order to properly protect those within the game. Testing is being done, but results aren’t streamlined to meet deadlines, which has now caused multiple organizations to cease operations during a three-week sprint to get ready.
     
    The way these five days have gone is reflective of a very ugly reality. It’s a lack of leadership and follow through that paints the picture as a “set it and forget it” type of scenario. We were given a date for resumption, so everything was just going to fall into place. Major League Baseball is set to unveil the 2020 schedule tonight, but we have no reason to believe we’ll logically make it to that point.
     
    Whether now or in the future, whether the league gets its act together or not, Manfred needs to begin asking himself for accountability. He’s banged a drum for years that the game must be changed. Pace of play initiatives and poorly thought out marketing strategies have done little to benefit even the intended bottom line. While routinely chomping on his own feet whether by calling the World Series trophy a piece of metal, or publicly suggesting the league never intended to play anything more than the minimal amount of games, he’s become more court jester than duly appointed judge.
     
    Other sports have returned thus far, and while we’re still going up against a relatively unknown enemy, the reason to believe in positivity on those fronts is because leadership has ensured a strong plan of action. Rather than denigrating the product and squabbling over who will make more money, the first course of action was how would this be accomplished, and then everything else was allowed to figure itself out with proper runway to ensure follow through.
     
    I certainly hope we have a 2020 Major League Baseball season to watch. The Twins are going to be very good, and the nightly drama of a 60-game sprint should be a blast. If we don’t though, it won’t be on the players opting out or the virus causing them to consider that action. It will be on leadership, specifically that of one man, who fell completely short.
     
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  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Major League Baseball has not even gotten underway in 2020 and yet we’re just two months from the trade deadline. When the season does start, that date will be little more than a month away. After winning the deadline last year, will Minnesota make a deal?
     
    Last July I wrote high praise for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in regards to how the executed the trade deadline. They got the best reliever swapped (although he was a disaster and hurt), picked up Sergio Romo, and provided a small jolt to the farm system. Over the course of their tenure in Twins Territory, Falvey and Levine have proven adept at swinging deals.
     
    We have no idea what things will look like on August 31, and right now the greatest hope is that the 2020 season is still being played. When Opening Day does come to fruition Rocco Baldelli should have the services of the previously expected to be shelved Rich Hill. The bullpen is already one of the best in baseball, and a fearsome lineup added Josh Donaldson.
     
    The other wrinkle to a later deadline and 60-game season is that Minnesota will receive a boost with 19 to play when Michael Pineda is eligible to be reinstated. Still on the hook to serve 39 games due to a failed drug test from a weight loss supplement, he returns for the final third. How the rotation looks at that point will be uncertain, and it will definitely come after the deadline has passed.
     
    If there’s somewhere the Twins can afford to bulk up, it is at the top half of their starters. Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Kenta Maeda are all quality arms. None of them match the caliber of a true proven ace however, and in series where three men take continuous turns, they could be behind the eight ball from the jump.
    You’d probably be fair in assessing that the Twins were destined to add at the 2020 trade deadline under normal circumstances. I think the assumption that good teams can use that as an opportunity to get better is relatively basic.
     
    With the parameters in play for 2020 however, things are all a bit more complicated. Does another organization want a lower prospect that isn’t in the player pool and therefore missed out on a year of development? Are you acquiring to fill an immediate hole, or do you have to prioritize an empty place of production due to a player hitting the COVID-related Injured List?
     
    I’d wager the Twins could utilize the trade deadline in 2020 as an opportunity to get a jumpstart on free agency. This winter could be a cold one for guys without teams, and while acquiring them may be doable at depressed costs, dealing for long term assets in a window of contention seems like a worthy endeavor. Minnesota is being impacted by a goofy season at the worst time but salvaging a run doesn’t mean being boom or bust.
     
    Right now, I think the only given is that there is a trade deadline on the calendar. We have no idea what the roster construction will be at the end of August, or whether the season will still be going at that time. What is safe to say is that Minnesota enters the year with more talent than they’ve had maybe ever, and when acquiring more, it’s really just icing on the cake.
     
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  23. Ted Schwerzler
    Today was finally the day. June 23, 2020 was the day when the Major League Baseball Players Association and Major League Baseball got on the same page. The announcement was simple, play ball. Now that we have that out of the way, what does it all look like?
     
    We're going to have a 60 game schedule, and that means that each team will play 40 games against their traditional division with another 20 coming against the geographic counterpart from the other league. Minnesota gets the NL Central which included just one team breaking the 90-win plateau in 2019, and two finishing below .500.
     
    There's going to be a significant amount of rule changes or modifications. The regular season will run from July 24 through September 26. Below you can find a bulleted list with a link to each report:
    Universal DH
    Runner will begin on 2B to start the 10th inning. Runner will be final out from the inning prior.
    Taxi squads can consist of up to three players, but one must be a catcher.
    COVID-19 specific injured list
    Transaction freeze ends Friday 6/26 at 12pm ET
    Teams will utilize players from a 60 man pool submitted by Sunday 6/28 at 3pm ET
    August 31 trade deadline
    Players not on 30 man roster (which will be trimmed to 28 and 26) will be at an alternate site
    Taxi squad players will not accrue service time or be paid MLB wages
    Postseason eligibility requires being in an organization by September 15
    Arguing within six feet could result in suspension

    We already know there will be no fans. We already know that this entire thing could go up in flames if safety protocols don't end up keeping the virus in a manageable state. What we also know for the first time since March is that there will be baseball. Despite months of horrible public disparagement from both sides, it's once again the game that will attempt to unite us.
     
    https://twitter.com/MLBPA_News/status/1275589804990836736
     
    This is a season the Minnesota Twins were looking forward to. Names like Josh Donaldson and Kenta Maeda have made their way onto a roster coming off 101 wins a season ago. Sure this is a difficult calendar to compare statistically across previous years, but every single organization is in the same boat now. The goal is still to win a World Series, no matter how different the journey to get there may be.
     
    There's certainly less nuance in a 60-game sprint than there is in a 162-game marathon, but the importance of every outing just got ratcheted through the roof. If you want the feel of a one-game Wild Card for the next three months you've got it. Buckle up because this is going to be something like we've never seen before.
     
    We've got a week until teams begin Spring Training 2.0 in their home ballparks, but it's official, Play Ball!
     
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  24. Ted Schwerzler
    Despite a global health crisis, it isn’t a pandemic that has ultimately thwarted the resumption of Major League Baseball in 2020, no instead it’s those directly involved with the game. Regardless of fault, fans are on a roller coaster ride they never signed up for, and it’s hurt the sport substantially.
     
    Today the Major League Baseball Players Association will vote on whether they’ll accept or reject Major League Baseball’s proposal for resumption of play. 38 voting members will give a yay or nay with a majority vote needed to cement a decision one way or another. The expectation is that the proposal will be rejected on the grounds of not wanting to lose an opportunity to grieve the circumstances in court.
     
    What we really have is posturing, and it’s what we’ve had during so much of this process, and what baseball labor negotiations have become synonymous with. Owners and players don’t trust each other at all, and it’s why every renewal of the CBA ends up coming with a significant possibility of lockout.
     
    It wasn’t until recently that Rob Manfred and Tony Clark got in a room together to has things out. Both sides came out of that meeting with different understandings of what took place, and it only furthered a battle that has played out with public barbs being fired back and forth. Regardless of the structure imposed by the current deal, it would seem to be a non-starter for players in that acceptance represents failure of sorts.
     
    I’ve long operated with the belief that there will undoubtedly be baseball in 2020 (barring a shift in circumstances regarding the virus), but that I have no idea what it would look like. The initial suggestion of a full season seemed laughable, but so too does the suggestion of an implemented 48-game playthrough. We’re obviously much closer to the latter than former at this point, and it’s because of all the feet dragging that we’re here.
     
    Siding with the players should be an easy choice in this whole battle, but the reality is that both parties have dug in so harshly what we as fans are left with is a bastardized version of what could’ve been. Finances tied directly to games played left us with one side looking to cut down the calendar, and the other trying to recoup as much of their income as possible. It isn’t a matter of what we want to play at this point, but instead what the calendar will allow for.
     
    So again today, when there’s a vote on whether the season should start under a certain set of conditions, we’ll likely be left waiting. One side’s disagreement will shoot down the opportunity for an official announcement, and like the many weeks and days of vast importance before it, the day will again be wasted.
     
    Tomorrow and going forward Rob Manfred, who has failed miserably in providing any direction or leadership while instead allowing his sport to burn, will need to decide whether or not he’ll implement a season. The players agreed to that possibility back in March, and it’s a scenario that makes all too much sense not to fulfill. Then again, we’ve crossed plenty of these bridges already throughout this process and they all still remain smoldering.
     
    I still believe we’ll have baseball in 2020, but the waiting has turned away many future fans forever, and it’s cost the current one’s significant amount of trust for ultimately no necessary reason.
     
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  25. Ted Schwerzler
    It’s really weird to be providing a midseason update on Minnesota Twins prospects when not only has a Major League game not been played, but the Minor League season is all but cancelled as well. There hasn’t been anything of substance to look at, although my thoughts on a few players have shifted.
     
    I can’t say that I derived anything of considerable substance from the week I spent watching back fields action down in Fort Myers, but there’s also been a (very brief) Major League Baseball draft that put some fresh talent into the organization as well. 2020 has been anything but normal, so let’s embrace the goofiness and get underway with the rankings.
     
    2016 Top 15 Prospects
    2017 Top 15 Prospects
    2018 Top 15 Prospects
    2019 Top 15 Prospects
    2020 Top 15 Prospects
    2020 Twins Draft Picks
     
    15. Wander Javier SS
     
    Losing a full season of Minor League Baseball may hurt no one in the Twins system more than it does Wander Javier. An elite talent who has fallen completely off the map since Rookie Ball, Javier is coming off a dismal .601 OPS with Cedar Rapids in 2019. He’s still just 21, but a year of missed development and wanting to distance himself from a season ago isn’t ideal.
     
    14. Matt Canterino RHP
     
    I really like Canterino and think he can continue to push up these rankings as a relatively high floor prospect. He’ll be 23 next season, but he put in a very impressive showing to start his pro career. Working 25 innings after 99 in college is a nice taste, and clearly the Twins were impressed skipping him over the Appy League. He should start at High-A Fort Myers in 2021.
     
    13. Gilberto Celestino OF
     
    Part of the package returned for Ryan Pressly, Celestino was originally viewed through the lens of being a plus defender. While that remains true, he reached High-A Fort Myers last season and posted a .759 OPS. The 10 home runs were a nice bit of power, and if that comes along with his speed and defensive abilities, he’ll rocket up this board. There’s clearly a reason why Minnesota wanted him on the 40 man this winter.
    12. Matt Wallner OF
     
    I’m higher on Wallner than most I think, but he is a bit more than the traditional booming bat the Twins have. There’s athleticism here and he can play on the corners in the outfield. His arm is massive, so right field makes a lot of sense. He was already looking like an advanced hitter, so the wiping out of 2020 may not hurt him as much. There’s always fallback potential here that he could get on the mound.
     
    11. Aaron Sabato 1B
    Continuing the mold of targeting thunderous bats, Minnesota went with arguably the best power hitter in the draft during 2020. Sabato can launch the baseball, and he’ll absolutely have to with little to now defensive value. The expectation is a big leaguer at worst here, with some serious thump as a consistent and regular producer.
    10. Brent Rooker 1B/OF
     
    Rooker could see time on a taxi-squad for the Twins in 2020, and it’s not hard to wonder on as his bat is ready. There’s uncertainty as to where he’ll play given mixed reports on abilities in the outfield and at first base, but the bat should hold its own. He’s got a different build than Sabato, but all of the same power is there.
     
    9. Keoni Cavaco SS
    Keeping Cavaco back for me is just how lost he looked at the plate in his debut season. The K/BB ration was nightmarish, and that’s the bigger story than where his slash line was for me. I think he really needed to get back on the diamond and in the swing of things for some positive steps forward. Obviously, this is still a first round talent, but it’s a wait and see approach for me.
    8. Ryan Jeffers C
     
    One of the biggest movers nationally in the Twins system has been Jeffers. He went from a bat first player that may not be able to catch, and now is considered multi-faceted within the organization. The receiving and throwing skills have sharpened, and nothing has slowed down with the bat. Like Rooker, Jeffers could be on the taxi squad for the Twins, and probably is a better option behind Alex Avila in the hole than Willians Astudillo.
     
    7. Blayne Enlow RHP
     
    Minnesota saved money on some earlier picks to grab Enlow given the promise they saw in him. So far that’s been greatly rewarded. He’s been a consistent arm, and while not dominant, has gotten it done at every level. Would like to see a few more strikeouts, but there’s a mid-rotation upside here. Another guy that could factor in depending on how big minor league depth goes for 2020.
     
    6. Lewis Thorpe LHP
     
    2020 was going to be a big year for Thorpe and it’s taken on quite a different shape. He was away from Spring Training getting reset for a couple of weeks and then look ticketed for Triple-A Rochester. With the situation as it is now, he could be an extra long man out of the pen. His stuff was better than the numbers said in 2019, and I think there’s legit stuff to dream on from the Aussie lefty.
     
    5. Jhoan Duran RHP
     
    The way 2020 has gone, and the limited season may actually accelerate Duran’s pro debut. I assumed it would come this year, but that wasn’t a lock. Expanded taxi squads and roster could certainly make an arm this good worthy of a relief look. He’s going to start in a traditional year. The near triple-digit stuff plays from the get-go. Bring him in as a middle reliever might be a nice boost for Rocco Baldelli, however.
     
    4. Trevor Larnach OF
     
    I’d bet heavily on Larnach showing up at the Major League level in 2020. He’s an advanced hitter and works the zone well. He’s held his own during Spring Training action and watching him launch a ball on his first big league at bat was a lot of fun. He’s the most likely of the Twins power prospects to remain in the outfield. Good athleticism, although it will play better on the corners.
     
    3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
     
    This season will present somewhat of a weird spot for Balazovic. I think he’s best utilized as a starter and not sure how much his stuff plays up in the pen. He’s got a legitimate shot to be top half rotation arm and pairing him with Jose Berrios down the road could be lots of fun. The Canadian has received lots of praise in the past calendar year and the stuff absolutely warrants it.
     
    2. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B
     
    Plenty can still make the argument that Minnesota’s top two prospects are interchangeable. I have Kirilloff second because once he moves off an outfield spot (as he already has) first base provides less value. He’s a pure hitter, he’s going to hit for average, and the power will be there as well. He was going to be ready at some point in 2020, and no we’ll likely see it sooner rather than later.
     
    1. Royce Lewis SS
     
    Lots of ups and downs for Lewis on the farm last year, but he ended on fire as the Arizona Fall League MVP. There’s going to be concerns about the leg kick until he consistently puts it together, and plenty still wonder if he’s not better suited for centerfield. Regardless, he’s going to play a premium position and looks the part of a perennial All-Star.
     
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