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Ted Schwerzler

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Blog Entries posted by Ted Schwerzler

  1. Ted Schwerzler
    Right now, the Minnesota Twins own a 1.7% probability when it comes to making the postseason per Fangraphs. I recently wrote about how Minnesota can utilize their remaining schedule if and when they decide to sell off. Should the losing continue, things become very clear for this squad. What makes things interesting however, is the slate that lies ahead.
     
    So far, the Twins have found themselves playing a significant amount of games outside of the AL Central. While divisional matchups are all bound to get in eventually, it's of note for Minnesota given the poor quality of competition. Obviously the Cleveland Indians have the same opportunity to beat bad teams, but the Twins schedule sets up favorably. In September, 17 of the 28 games come against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. In August, the club plays more than their fair share of games against Cleveland, as well as Kansas City.
     
    What that means for Paul Molitor's squad is somewhat of an unknown at this point. Having recently faced both the White Sox and Royals, Minnesota is enjoying a nice five game winning streak. On the year, the Twins are just 12-10 against the three "poor" teams in the division, while owning a 6-3 record against Cleveland.
     
    Beating bad teams, or the ones that you should beat, is what good teams make a habit of. Sitting eight games below .500 at the moment, Minnesota can't say they've capitalized on opportunities thus far. What makes things somewhat interesting, is that there's plenty of opportunity ahead.
     
    I don't know that I believe this club can turn it around. On paper coming into the year, this should've been a very good team. The pitching has been there, but seeing very little from players like Dozier, Morrison, Sano, Buxton, and Kepler has crippled the offense. Should they all turn it around, we're talking about a much different outlook down the stretch. The Indians have their warts, and a clicking Twins team is more than capable of holding serve.
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are stuck in the position of deciding whether or not they're willing to bet on their expected producers to turn things around. They've got roughly two more weeks to evaluate the progress, and while they could end up being sellers, don't really have a big trade chip of note.
     
    Given what we've seen thus far, it's hard to bet on a group of five or six guys all turning things around and competing at a high level. If half of those players become assets however, we could be in for a bit of interesting baseball slightly longer than anticipated. The unfortunate flip side to this however, is that the middle ground seems to be where this is all trending, and that's hardly an enviable place to be. Not bad enough to grab a top third draft pick, but not good enough to make the playoffs, the success would then need to be measured on what you learned or the evaluation that took place.
     
    While not dead, the Twins are on life support. They have a few key contributors that could help them to pull through, and if that takes place in even the slightest fashion, the opponents that wait down the road may be of assistance as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Ted Schwerzler
    Entering play on July 9, the Minnesota Twins playoff odds sit at just 1.1%. With the sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, the numbers have jumped up from the 0.4% entering the series. At this point of the season however, the writing is on the wall. Paul Molitor's squad is going nowhere, and the focus should turn to process more significantly than results. While the win total may be meaningless at the end, using the slate of games ahead for good is a must.
     
    Going into 2018, there was plenty of optimism surrounding this Twins team. They were coming off a Wild Card game, added more talent, and had another year of development for their young stars. What was also apparent, is that the amount of one-year deals and expiring contracts would allow the club to retool again in 2019. This version won't have a postseason berth to jump off of next year, but the window for opportunity remains open. For the Twins to capitalize on it, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to do a much better job utilizing the 25 man roster than they have thus far.
     
    For starters, the lineup should begin to reflect players with a future being prioritized. It took far too long for a superior player in Jake Cave to get real run over a retread like Ryan LaMarre. Mitch Garver clearly has a capable bat, but he's still sitting far too often behind the inept Bobby Wilson. Cave is a 25 year old fringe prospect that could be a nice 4th outfielder and take over Robbie Grossman's role. Garver has concerns behind the plate, but if the feeling is that he can't catch, opportunities should be found at first base. Going into 2019 without a clear idea of what sort of contributions these two are capable of would be a mistake.
     
    Despite the Twins pitching staff having been a significant area of improvement this season, there's going to be a good deal of turnover next year. Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney are on one year deals, while Lance Lynn is an expiring contract as well. Those guys are all trade candidates, but even if they aren't moved, it's a decent assumption they won't be back. Instead of letting someone like Matt Belisle eat innings, relievers such as John Curtiss, Alan Busenitz, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Jake Reed should all make major league appearances.
     
    In the rotation, the Twins will return Jose Berrios and Fernando Romero for certain. Ervin Santana has a year left on his deal, but at this point, can't be counted on. Minnesota can offer Jake Odorizzi arbitration, and Kyle Gibson falls in that group as well. The depth in the rotation remains strong, but finding out who else can rise to the top should be a goal. Zack Littell should return for some consecutive starts that allow him to be comfortable rather than nervous, and Stephen Gonsalves should make his debut for an extended period as well. Getting the jitters out and accomplishing the acclimation process now would be a good idea.
     
    At some point, the Twins should promote Nick Gordon. The 22 year old put up a .906 OPS this season for Double-A Chattanooga. Since moving up to Triple-A Rochester, he's posted just a .609 mark in 45 games. The next level has seen pretty poor results, and that should provide plenty of reason for caution. That said, the Twins are almost certainly going to let Brian Dozier walk this offseason, and Gordon would be expected to then take over. He may not win the job out of spring training, but I'd assume the goal is to have him in the big leagues by June 2019. Using a month of games that don't matter could be a very good way for him to get his feet wet.
     
    Really what it all boils down to is that the front office learn something from what's left. While trying to stay in it, many of the roster moves have trended towards lower ability players that bring an off the field aspect to the clubhouse. With poor performance and injuries having mounted, it's hard to suggest that a different story could have been told even with the most optimal roster decisions. At this point however, the Twins are presented with a desirable situation for future performance.
     
    No one should be expecting a rebuild in Minnesota any time soon, and the division sets up nicely to go for it again next year. Bringing in new parts from the free agent market, and pairing them with internal talent could very likely produce optimal results. As we've seen this season however, there's no guarantees from players within your organization, and even less so with fresh faces. Figuring out who you may be able to promote and count on now, could save a lot of face down the road.
     
    It's common sense that Minnesota will win plenty more games in 2018. It's also a fair suggestion that when the dust settles they won't matter at all. What level of development, process, and groundwork is laid for the future will be the takeaway from this year. It's time to shift the focus to that level of thinking, and hopefully we see the decisions from the top to mimic that sentiment.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Ted Schwerzler
    Through eight games in the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins have played to a .500 record. Having had to deal with blistering cold, and even some snow, it's hardly felt like a true baseball season. If there's one thing that has felt warm and fuzzy however, it's been the look and output of first basemen Joe Mauer.
    In 2017, Mauer returned to the land of .300 batting averages for the first time since 2013. He posted an .801 OPS bolstered by a .384 OBP all while looking the part of a guy that has a trio of batting titles under his belt. Having already transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first basemen, getting back to his old ways at the dish was a nice sigh to see. What's encouraging is that early returns in 2018 suggest that there may be more to come.
     
    To understand where we are, we should probably take a look back at where we've been. The last time Mauer was considered "himself" in 2013, he was putting balls in play with a 37.4% hard hit rating. His chase rates (O-Swing %) and swinging strike percentages have really never gotten out of line, which indicates that his going well has always been a reflection of barreling the baseball. Fast forward to when things took a turn for the worst, and we find ourselves at the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Mauer's .732 and .718 OPS in those two seasons respectively are a career worst. It's no coincidence that those numbers were posted in conjunction with 28% and 29.8% hard hit rates.
     
    Now let's jump back to the present. A year ago, Mauer looked like a revitalized and rejuvenated player. His 2.2 fWAR last year was a high water mark since the last time he was an All Star (2013), and it was backed by a 36.4% hard hit rate. What's great is that the early returns in 2018 don't make that look like an anomaly, and if anything, suggest that things may be trending even a bit better.
     
    Sure it's early, so let's pump the breaks on another MVP type season, but Mauer's start is pretty eye-popping. Thus far the Twins first basemen has a career best 47.6% hard hit rate, and he's already put 11 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A season ago his total was 204 and right now he's on pace to slightly eclipse that with a total of 223. Diving in even a bit further to those barreled balls, 10 of the 11 have been hit 100 mph or harder. In 2018 Mauer generated exit velocities of 100+ mph on 105 different occasions. With his current pace, he'd nearly double that in 2018 as he tracking towards 203 occurrences.
     
    What we're seeing in the early going from Mauer is a batter that's not only locked in, but one that isn't being cheated either. His 13.4% chase rate is more than 3% better than at any other point in his career. Having always had a very good idea of where the strike zone is, Joe is currently dictating at bats, than walloping the baseball when it comes into his hitting zone. Last season, Mauer's 13.9 K% was 26th among qualified MLB hitters. At just 10% out of the gate in 2018, only 15 qualified hitters have posted better numbers.
     
    There's no denying that there's a level of regression awaiting its turn to set in. After all, Mauer has a current seven game hitting streak and owns a .375/.500/.542 slash line out of the gate. The .429 BABIP is incredibly high, but also reflective of the quality contact he's continued to generate. Even with regression though, the process has yielded results that should display a level of sustainability with the assumption that the blueprint is stuck to over the course of the season.
     
    At the end of the day, Minnesota isn't going to watch Joe Mauer win another batting title by the end of his career (Jose Altuve exists in the American League). What is becoming more clear however, is that there's some serious ability left in the tank for a guy trending towards a Hall of Fame career. On the final year of his deal with the Twins, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be well served to bring this guy back for another couple of years. If Joe wants to keep trotting out to the diamond, it doesn't seem like his skills have told him that's a bad idea.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Ted Schwerzler
    Once again, the Minnesota Twins have recalled Jake Cave to the Major League roster. After optioning Ryan LaMarre back to Triple-A Rochester, the former Yankees prospect is back in The Show. A he heads back to the Twins active roster, Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Paul Molitor should all be on board with this being an extended stay for the Minnesota outfielder.
     
    Here's something that seems to be lost on Twins fans at times; not all prospects are created equal. Cave was acquired from the Yankees this offseason, and was someone the front office targeted back during the Jaime Garcia flip. While he isn't the pride of the organization, he is included among MLB Pipeline's Top 30 for the Twins, and makes a similar appearance on Seth Stohs' list (from Twins Daily). At 25 years old, he's cut from a similar cloth to a player like Mitch Garver.
     
    For the Twins, Cave presents an opportunity that should be capitalized upon. With a three man outfield all but set in stone, finding the regular fourth that can contribute in all phases should be something of importance. Robbie Grossman filled the role admirably in his first season with the Twins. His .828 OPS was a career high by a longshot, and he proved to be an on base machine. Since then, he's came back down to earth, and in 2018, he's no longer a replacement level player.
     
    When targeting a fourth outfielder, Minnesota should want someone with a little pop, that can provide value as a bat off the bench. Ideally, the player can field in all three spots, and assets including speed and arm strength would be ideal. Cave checks off the boxes, and has gotten just 19 big league at bats to show anything.
     
    Looking back at their respective abilities, Grossman is definitely a stronger player when it comes to commanding the strike zone. He's long been an on base guy and that's heavily bolstered by his ability to draw walks. While Cave lags a bit in that category, he's not some sort of massive black hole either. Showing a bit more pop over the course of his minor league career, there's a bit of give and take at play here.
     
    Last season, Cave posted a .921 OPS at Triple-A across 72 games. The downside is that it came with an 82/18 K/BB ratio. This season in the Twins organization, he has just a .735 OPS across 58 Triple-A games, but the K/BB ratio has improved to a respectable 55/26. Those strides are both significant and important.
     
    Right now, Grossman is a 28 year old with 470 major league games under his belt. He's turned the opportunities into 1.2 fWAR, or essentially just scratching the surface above replacement level. If that doesn't suggest an opportunity to improve upon that spot on the roster, I'm not sure what does.
     
    Down in Florida for spring training, I heard rumblings of Grossman being saved by manager Paul Molitor. It was the front office who acquired Cave, and despite being arguably the better player and one with more upside, the skipper had stuck his neck out to keep Robbie around. Again, what he did for the Twins in 2016 was nothing short of exceptional but that performance is also long gone.
     
    With the Twins season trending in the direction it has, and regardless of how it goes from here, I'd much prefer to see Cave get consistent opportunities. At some point, Byron Buxton is going to return to the 25 man roster. From that point forward, Cave could have the opportunities that Grossman has been given. Losing an asset is never ideal, but at that point, DFA'ing Grossman makes a lot of sense.
     
    Being a betting man, I'd lean towards the Twins not going about it this way. That said, I'd hope it's the point in which the rubber meets the road. Falvey and Levine should exert their will on this roster, and one way of doing so would be choosing Jake over Robbie.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Ted Schwerzler
    I don't typically find myself sitting down to write on a Sunday evening, but with my foot in a cast, and a level of frustration in tow, here we are. The first part of that formula is thanks to my achilles deciding to part ways with my foot, the second half is the fault of none other than the Star Tribune's Jim Souhan. On Sunday night, the Tribune Twitter account sent out Souhan's latest with this attached to the piece, "Affordable contract would keep Mauer in good standing with #MNTwins."
     
    Prior to getting full blown defensive, I needed to dive in further. So, I hopped into an incognito window and got to reading.
     
    There were some quotes from Twins President Dave St. Peter defending the $184 million deal that any team would've jumped at the opportunity to ink. There was some talk with Molitor about wanting him back, and then there was what Souhan added on his own.
     
    The journalist quipped "Mauer’s desire to play probably will be based on his health. He has recovered from concussion-like symptoms to return to the everyday lineup, but is batting just .222 with a .556 OPS since his return. Before his injury, his on-base percentage was .404, ranking among the league leaders. His on-base percentage since is an uncharacteristically low .300."
     
    From Mauer, Souhan went on to talk about Dozier. A late-bloomer that has an impending pay day ahead. The Twins don't look like they'll pony up, and there's baseball reasons for that (even aside from his typical slow start). He could end the piece without returning to Mauer however, in which he offer "the best thing Mauer could do for his image is to sign an affordable contract, to give the hometown team a break, and finish his career as a bargain instead of a financial burden."
     
    Now that you've read as much as you need to, I'm sorry.
     
    Over recent seasons, Souhan has been raked himself by plenty a fan of his poorly written pieces. Whether suggesting Phil Hughes as soft for not pitching through injury requiring surgery, or calling Miguel Sano out prior to him having an All Star caliber season. In both of those occasions however, you could argue the pieces had a level of journalistic integrity. Here however, Souhan comes out looking like more of a clown than he ever has.
     
    In noting Mauer's production, Jim points to Joe's return from the disabled list. While noting his numbers, he fails to mention that's literally an eight game sample size (including Sunday). The .759 OPS and .404 OBP come in a 38 G span to open up the year. Had he been leading off during that stretch, the Twins offense may have benefitted even more (but that's another story). In a game that decides realities over the course of 162 games, cherry picking eight of them (and failing to mention it), is poor at best.
     
    Should the idea that noting statistical production in an lackluster manner not bother you, Souhan then doubled down with his final remarks. Noting that Mauer should give the Twins a break, and not be a financial burden. If the brigade wielding pitchforks at the notion of Mauer's previous contract didn't already have enough poorly derived information, they've just been handed a bit more fuel for the fire.
     
    The horse is so far dead, there's not even reason to beat it at this point. That being said, Mauer's $184 million deal was already a hometown discount. There isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't have signed on that dotted line in a heartbeat. He was the best catcher in the game, and on pace to be among the best to ever play the position. He took less to stay home, and has been unappreciated by a fanbase that saw a living legend because a brain injury drastically altered his career.
     
    With baseball being an uncapped sport, and the Twins rarely being in a position to land big fish over the course of his deal, spending to supplement Mauer hardly seemed to be the right move. In 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine executed a near flawless offseason to bring in talent while pushing the payroll to an organizational record. The reality is that even the most sensible dollars don't always come together at the right time in terms of the on field product.
     
    Given the current climate of free agents, and the new front office, I'd guess that Falvey and Levine would chuckle at the notion of giving Torii Hunter $10 million for a 2015 season at 39 years old. Veteran leadership is a great thing, but I'll be damned if suggesting it trumps performance on a good team makes any semblance of sense. Hunter was a defensive liability and on his last legs at the plate. It was a fine last hurrah, but the dollars didn't make sense. The beautiful part of it however, was that it didn't make a difference on the bottom line either.
     
    A season ago, Joe Mauer was robbed of a Gold Glove that would've made him the third player to ever win one at multiple positions (and first catcher). At the present time, he's the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and it doesn't really matter if opposing managers are blind to that because of his lack of power numbers. Should Mauer want to return next year, Minnesota should jump at the opportunity. He can help Miguel Sano make that defensive transition, and earning something like $10 million is peanuts for the benefit he'd bring on the diamond.
     
    When the dust settles on his career, Joe Mauer will go down as the best player to ever play in the Minnesota Twins organization not named Harmon Killebrew. Whether you can't come to grips with his contract, or the fact that a season of inflated home runs in the Metrodome didn't transform who he was doesn't really matter. Tonight Jim Souhan tried to summarize what Mauer has been, and can be going forward, while failing to do even a shred of journalistic justice.
     
    It's a sad look for the Star Tribune, it's an expected offering from Souhan, and it's a reminder that Mauer has deserved so much better than what Minnesota has given him for far too long.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins find themselves scratching and clawing through games in order to get back to the .500 mark. This season opened with so much promise, and has taken turns that virtually no one expected. While Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar pace the offense, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have been non existent commodities. Somewhat of an afterthought at this point, Brian Dozier has given Paul Molitor nothing of substance in 2018.
     
    After garnering MVP votes for the third straight season last year, and winning a Gold Glove on the basis of his offensive performance, Dozier has been a black hole in the Twins lineup. In 2016 and 2017, the Minnesota second basemen posted .886 and .856 OPS totals respectively. As of June 20 this season, he's got a .682 mark. Slow starts aren't uncommon for the Mississippi native, but this level seems a bit unprecedented.
     
    On June 7, 2017 Dozier owned a .748 OPS along with 19 extra base hits (9 longballs). Going back to 2016, he posted just a .694 OPS across 62 games up until June 17. That year he once again had 19 extra base hits, but only seven were homers. Through 68 games in 2018, Dozier has tallied 24 extra base hits and 10 homers. Putting it into that sort of perspective, things feel a bit less bleak.
     
    If there's reason to be optimistic, it's that we've seen Brian make a habit of this. He's traditionally been a slow starter that goes on a tear at some point in the early summer. Right now, he owns a career best hard hit rate, and is spraying the ball consistent with career norms. His fly ball rate is where it has been and he's actually both chasing and whiffing less. If there's an area to point towards in relation to the slide, it's hit 6% dip in line drives, as well as the 6% falloff in HR/FB ratio.
     
    For the Twins, Dozier has been the same player for each of the past handful of seasons. He uses a dead pull approach that allows him to yank homers over the left field fence. There's solid bat speed and whip through the zone, but he's not the hulking power hitter one would stereotype. Despite seasons of 42 and 34 longballs the past two seasons, a projection in the upper 20's seems like a safe bet on an annual basis. You're also going to get that production in lopsided amounts over the course of the season.
     
    In short, I'm not certain Brian Dozier has gone anywhere. In fact, he probably is who he's always been.
    To generate a higher level of production, Dozier will absolutely need to get the ball off the ground a bit more. The drop in line drive rate is significant, and putting the baseball on the ground is never going to be his game. As the line drives increase, so too should the HR/FB ratio.
     
    The problem with streaky hitters is that you have to take your lumps through the down times, and unfortunately Dozier's is an annual occurrence. Despite the average being abnormally low, we aren't far off from what would be considered on par with previous outputs. If the Twins offense as a whole hadn't been such an abomination to this point, the second basemen would also have an easier time blending in.
     
    At some point, guys like Dozier fizzle out in extreme fashion. The dead pull power approach decreases in effectiveness as careers get long. I don't think we're there yet (although it's part of the reason I believe Minnesota is right to let him walk this winter), and that's a good thing for the outlook of this lineup going forward. I'd be relatively shocked to see Brian put up 30 homers the rest of the way, but a turnaround shouldn't be anything but expected at this point.
     
    Right now, the Twins need Dozier to start his surge. For the sake of his payday following the conclusion of the season, Brian could use that as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Ted Schwerzler
    Thus far in 2018, there's been lots of talk surrounding the Minnesota Twins. Paul Molitor's club has provided talking points relating to everything from their up-and-down record, Miguel Sano's slide, and the emergence of guys like Eddie Rosario and Kyle Gibson. Virtually under the radar, Jose Berrios is beginning to round out into a bonafide ace. The crazy thing is, next to no one is talking about it.
     
    A year ago, Berrios owned a 3.89 ERA and put up a 14-8 record across 25 starts (26 games) for the Twins. In 2018, the young Puerto Rican would start on the Opening Day roster for the first time in his career. He's made 14 starts on the season, and has quickly become must watch baseball. Whether going up against an ace or a 5th starter on the other side, the Twins hurler now has a brand of his own.
     
    Through just under 90 innings this season, Berrios has posted a 3.51 ERA. His 9.1 K/9 is indicative of the strikeout stuff that was always expected of him, and he's cut his walk rate down to a truly impressive 1.5 BB/9 mark. With two complete games, one being a shutout, under his belt already, it's hard to quantify this season as anything but his best yet. What's exciting for both Berrios and the Twins, is that we've likely only scratched the surface.
     
    Just recently turning 24 years old, Berrios has just under 300 big league innings to his credit. This season, he's posting career bests across the board, and his 3.33 FIP along with a 0.948 WHIP suggest that there's room for him to be even better. Efficiency has been something he's struggled with in the past, but working two complete tilts already has displayed a further amount of maturity. Walks have also been something Berrios has been plagued by in his early career, but they've become a point of emphasis in 2018, and an avenue of growth that's been significantly exploited.
     
    Diving into his arsenal and surrounding numbers, Berrios' output provides one of the biggest areas for excitement. He's still throwing with the same velocity, and his usage rates across all pitches remains nearly identical to career norms. The results have equated to a career best 11.8% swinging strike rate, and a 35.9% chase rate. His 76.4% contact rate is a career low, and he's still keeping hard hit rates in check. As a summary Berrios really isn't doing anything different with his offerings, but with everything being a bit sharper the results have only continued on an upward trajectory.
     
    The main knock on Jose has always been his stature. Whether or not he would have enough of a downward plane on his fastball to keep it in the park has been a realistic concern. The 1.1 HR/9 mark is a slight increase from a season ago, but it's hardly the 1.9 tally from his big league debut season. Even if there's not much movement made off of that mark, it's hardly a death sentence given the complete formula.
     
    Berrios never got the national love of being an ace, and most projected him as a solid #2 starter. Topping out at 17th on the Baseball Prospectus to prospect list, he saw plenty of fanfare, but not quite enough to put him in elite territory. We don't yet know how this will all play out, but there's little reason to put a ceiling on him anymore. You'll struggle to find anyone willing to outwork the young man, and his abilities are shooting upwards each time he toes the rubber.
     
    Forever, the Twins have needed to develop an impact arm that can shoulder the load of being the guy in the starting rotation. Right now, we're seeing Berrios become not just a premier pitcher for the Twins, but among the best in baseball.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins were in the 9th inning of another lackluster offensive performance today against the Detroit Tigers. Despite a wonderful outing from starter Lance Lynn, Minnesota found themselves trailing 3-1 in the final frame. With 2 outs, a runner on, and Miguel Sano on the bench...Jake Cave hit for himself. It was at that moment the Twins had solidified their decision. Miguel Sano needed to go.
     
    Immediately following the game, it was announced that the slugging third basemen would be sent to High-A Fort Myers. He wasn't going to Triple-A Rochester, or Double-A Chattanooga. Instead, he was headed all the way down to Florida. Both the Red Wings and Lookouts have roster space for the Twins third basemen, so this move is no accident. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sent the message to Sano that it's time to get right or get gone.
     
    In Fort Myers, Sano will be surrounded by the Twins complex, and monitored and a pretty small microscope. He's going to need to figure out how to ditch the terrible check swinging habit, learn to pick up pitches again, and decide that this shell of a player is not who he wants to be. While the former two issues are big ones, it's the latter that remains the most frustrating for me.
     
    Over the course of his career, Sano has relied on natural talent, casting aside an ability to work hard and elevate himself to heights that a player of his caliber should be reaching. As I've stated in this space before, weight has never been the issue for Sano, but instead the message in regards to what he expects from himself. At some point, and the Twins hope this is it, the Dominican native is going to have to push for more. There's a really, really good ballplayer in there, but he'll need to be the one to find it.
     
    The move surrounding Sano isn't unexpected, and it's likely the correct one. My estimation would be that recently acquired Taylor Motter will come up to take over as the bench utility player. Motter has done little-to-nothing at Triple-A for the Mariners and Twins this year, but with Robbie Grossman and Bobby Wilson on the pine, Paul Molitor needs an infielder. Motter can play all over the diamond, and should be plenty capable of spelling regulars over the next couple of weeks.
     
    If there's a less than ideal wrinkle to the whole situation, it's that Jake Cave was again sent back to Rochester. He's been better than Ryan LaMarre, there's reason to believe his ceiling presents a significantly more appealing skillset, and LaMarre has been relatively awful on his own accord. Minnesota has turned from a contender into a pretender. This team is scuffling at the very least, and keeping LaMarre around for the story he was during spring training is silly. There's no track record to suggest he's anything more than a quad-A type player, and Paul Molitor isn't doing this lackluster lineup any favors by running him out there.
     
    When the dust settles, Minnesota will welcome Mauer back with open arms. He isn't going to cure all the warts this team currently has, but it's definitely a positive to have him back in the fold. Negative as it may be right now, Sano deciding to invest in himself long term is the best development Minnesota could get out of this season. Hopefully Cave will get another shot to prove his worth soon. It was a busy day in Twins Territory to say the least.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Ted Schwerzler
    Prior to the news of the Minnesota Twins re-signing veteran reliever Matt Belisle, I had every intention of writing a piece on the curious usage of Matt Magill. Paul Molitor has routinely been lackluster when it comes to bullpen managment during his time as Twins skipper, but things got even more confusing today. After revamping the relief corps going into the season, Thad Levine, Derek Falvey, and Paul Molitor have found a way to make a relative strength into a revolving door.
     
    Needing a fresh arm at the tail end of April, the Twins turned to Matt Magill. Prior to that point, Magill last pitched in the big leagues during the 2016 season. He had just 32 innings under his belt, and at 28 years old, he was a relative flier. Now having been on the 25 man roster for 40 games, he's been used just 13 times in that stretch. Without knowing his numbers, it may not seem egregious given the lack of history to build off of. The numbers though, well they're very good. In 20.2 IP with Minnesota, Magill has posted a 1.31 ERA with a 7.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9.
     
    It wouldn't be a terrible thing to Magill to be largely unused if the Twins found themselves avoiding a need to go to their bullpen. However, in that 40 games timeframe he's been with the club, Ryan Pressly has been ran out to the mound 21 times, while Addison Reed has been called upon on 19 occasions. In the 21 games Pressly has appeared in, he has a 6.11 ERA and is allowing an .886 OPS to opposing hitters. Reed's 19 appearances have equaled out to a 3.38 ERA (compared to a 2.57 mark prior), and an .895 OPS against. To say they are running on fumes is an understatement. It being only June makes matters worse.
     
    Then comes the news of Matt Belisle.
     
    Not only is Paul Molitor not using his full relief corps currently, but he's now been given a veteran arm that the worst bullpen in the big leagues (Cleveland) decided to give up on even at Triple-A. Belisle filled in admirably as the Twins closer down the stretch last season, but his fastball velocity has declined to a career worst 90.9 mph. He's also ceded runs in three of eight appearances at the highest level this season. Molitor hasn't given Magill the opportunity to spell his horses despite Matt proving worthy of a chance, now he'll have an arm that should be utilized in a similar vein to Tyler Kinley or Phil Hughes before him.
     
    Sure, there's a value to clubhouse presence, and that will be a notion disseminated freely when referencing Belisle's signing. That's more a cop out than anything however. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, and Fernando Rodney were intended to be the veteran presence brought in over the offseason. All solid clubhouse guys, they effect Belisle has in the matter should be well represented in the doldrums of Target Field. By spinning an odd fit with the clubhouse tag, Minnesota should and does likely alienate more deserving players toiling away at Triple-A.
     
    Tyler Duffey noted frustration when he was recently optioned back to Triple-A. While he's had poor stints with the Twins this year, he was perfect in his recent opportunity and likely deserved better. Most egregious in all of this is none other than Alan Busenitz. Across 24 Triple-A innings thus far, Busenitz owns a 0.38 ERA, 10.5 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9. There's no other way to put it except that it's a massive mistake to have him be wasting bullets in Rochester. No longer a prospect at nearly 28 years old, Busenitz has proven he's well above the Triple-A level, and he should be working his way into a back-end role with the Twins.
     
    The signing of Matt Belisle on its own isn't some terrible decision. Given the factors at play however, it's one that Thad Levine, Derek Falvey, and Paul Molitor should all be questioned for. The bullpen is currently mismanaged, internal options likely provide a higher impact, and a negative message is sent throughout the organization. While the front office deserves to be commended for how they handled the offseason, the roster moves since the games began are puzzling at best.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Ted Schwerzler
    For better or worse, Miguel Sano has been the same player for much of his big league career. On one hand, that's a hulking slugger that drives baseballs deep into the outer reaches of major league ballparks. On the other, it's a free swinging giant that frustrates both fans and coaches alike. Regardless of which side of the fence he finds himself on during a given day, he's remained largely the same player throughout his career. What's someone comforting is that 2018 is no outlier.
     
    Coming into the season, really at the beginning of spring training, I wrote about how Sano's weight itself isn't the issue. My problem with the big third basemen's size is more in relation to what it says about his level of commitment to both the Twins as well as his own ability to be great. By deciding not to adhere to guidelines suggested by his employer, and turning a bit of the extra baggage into muscle mass, there's a higher tier that goes from reachable to a distant memory.
     
    On the field, and even with as bad as he's been for the Twins in 2018, much of the underlying numbers suggest he's not far off from who he's always been. Sano's .859 OPS in 2017 earned him his first All Star trip, and was in line with the .916 OPS he produced as a rookie in his first 80 major league games. Last season, he posted a 29.1% chase rate, and just a 62% contact rate. He swung through pitches 18.3% of the time, and he made contact on strikes just 73.5% of the time. None of those numbers are great, and especially so combined with a 35.8% strikeout rate. That being said, they combined to provide more than welcomed results.
     
    This is where we get into some of the silver lining that Sano has left for 2018. On the season, he owns a 32.6% chase rate (3% worse), 64.9% contact rate (3% better), and a 16.5% swinging strike rate (2% better). The biggest dip is his 40.6% K rate (5% worse), and his 18.4% HR/FB ratio (9% worse). While the strikeouts and lack of home runs are certainly egregious, none of the other areas in which he's slipped up have been too drastic. On top of that, he's not being attacked in an entirely different fashion. Teams are throwing him nearly 40% fastballs, which is a career high, while it's changeups and curveballs that have been offered to him less.
     
    So where does that leave us? Well if you've observed Twins broadcasts or watched a game in the park, I'm sure you can figure it out. Right now, Miguel Sano's biggest failure is in pitch recognition. For one reason or another he's guessing entirely too often at the plate, and in doing so, he's seen check swinging a crazy amount, while watching otherwise perfect pitches go by. The dip in offspeed offerings may have Sano waiting on pitches that won't ever come, while he's then susceptible to the fastball being blown right by him. He's swinging and missing less, and he's not chasing all the much more. In fact, when he's making contact, it remains at a comparable clip in terms of hard hit rate. Simply put, he just doesn't know what he's swinging at.
    When taking a look at his pitch chart, we can see that Sano is being abused by the breaking ball low and away. Pitchers have gotten a ton of swings and misses from Sano on sliders and curveballs that are off the outside corner of the zone. Despite not being a dead pull hitter, those are the balls he's either check swinging on, or shouldn't be offering at whatsoever. Conversely, he's yet to swing through anything up and in, while six of his seven homers have come on pitches in the middle of the zone.
     
    If you've checked out Rob Friedman's GIFs on Twitter (under the handle @PitchingNinja), you'll see how difficult attacking pitches can be. Both sliders and fastballs can get to the zone on the same plane, before one drastically turns away from an opposing batter. With a lacking ability in pitch recognition, spin isn't something Sano is currently picking up, and it leaves him flailing through both types of offerings not fully knowing which is which.
     

     
    There's plenty of drills that can be executed to help with this sort of deficiency, and while they are simple in practice, application is hard. Big league pitchers are the best in the world for a reason, and even while Sano is always going to be a strikeout machine, the reality is that he can also hit very well. Until he can once again read offerings as opposed to guessing or reacting through them, he's going to struggle.
     
    James Rowson did an incredible job of breaking down Byron Buxton's swing to the bare minimum and rebuilding him at the highest level last season. Sano shouldn't need that level of an overhaul, but the Twins hitting coach has his next big challenge in front of him. Pitch recognition isn't something you can simply use your given ability to get through however, and that's where this could take a tough turn for Miguel. He;s going to need to rededicate himself at the plate, and put in the work to see a different set of results. There's been different times and instances where the Twins have hoped that blueprint would play out for their third basemen and it hasn't.
     
    Miguel Sano has the opportunity to be great, but he could choose to settle for being average. There's another crossroads in his path, and it'll be interesting to see how he attacks this one.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Ted Schwerzler
    With the 2018 Major League Baseball draft in the rearview mirror, the Minnesota Twins have now brought more young talent into the organization. Despite not having the first overall pick this season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to identify a handful of players that could be making an impact at Target Field in years to come. While this class seems catcher and college heavy, there's also a juggle of names already included in the Off The Baggy top 15 prospects.
     
    Before diving into an updated, post draft list, here's a few key areas to check out first:
     
    2016 Top 15 Prospects
    2017 Top 15 Prospects
    2018 Top 15 Prospects
    2018 Draft Picks
     
    Now that we have the foundation laid, here's who I have as the Midseason Top 15 Prospects for the Minnesota Twins:
     
    15. Wander Javier SS
     
    Coming into the season, I found myself incredibly high on Javier, thinking he could end up being the Twins best positional prospect not named Royce Lewis. Unfortunately, he's been handed a season ending injury, and despite the surgery not being on his throwing arm, the biggest setback is missing out on a year of development at 19 years old. By the time he's back on the diamond, Javier will be 20. He's going to need to pick up and go right away to regain his prospect status. There's an incredible amount of talent there, and counting him out would be foolish.
     
    14. Tyler Jay LHP
     
    The Twins 2015 1st round pick is now firmly entrenched as a reliever. After being bounced back and forth between starting and the pen, keeping him healthy has maybe been the largest challenge. In 2017, Jay pitched just 11.2 innings, a mark he's nearly doubled thus far in 2018. He's still at Double-A Chattanooga which is unfortunate, and the strikeouts have dipped to just 7.5 per nine innings. As a lefty, he can bring it, and profiles well in the late innings. He'll need to start putting up numbers indicative of that should he want to jump to Triple-A. At 24, it would be ideal to see him get time with the Twins this year, but that would require a significant breakout in short order.
     
    13. Lewis Thorpe LHP
     
    Starting the season healthy for the first time in more than three years is huge for the Aussie. After a solid display at High-A Fort Myers last season, he was jumped to Chattanooga to begin 2018. The ERA sits at a respectable 3.74, while his 10.2 K/9 is something Minnesota would love to see carry forward. The 1.528 WHIP is a bit out of hand, and it's reflective of a guy that allows a handful of runners to reach base. Thorpe is still just 22, and already at Double-A. If he continues to refine his approach, he'll jump back into the national discussion.
     
    12. Blayne Enlow RHP
     
    The Twins targeted Enlow with some of their early round savings in the 2017 MLB Draft. After appearing in 20.1 innings for the GCL Twins last year, he's spent 2018 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. The 4.46 ERA isn't ideal, but he's another guy giving up too much contact right now. A 1.718 WHIP is buoyed by an 11.5 H/9. He's only 19 and the stuff is still very raw. His bender is impressive, and the velocity probably has a bit of room to grow yet. If nothing else, this is a very good developmental year for the Louisiana native.
     
    11. Akil Baddoo OF
     
    There wasn't a guy I was more impressed with during spring training 2017 than Baddoo when it came to physical body work. He looked as if he'd at half of his 2016 self, and put on a ton of muscle. At E-Town last season, Baddoo posted a great 1.057 OPS across 33 games. Batting as the leadoff guy for the Kernels this year, he owns a .788 OPS. The power continues to play, and while the average has sunk a bit lower than you'd like to see, his plate discipline hasn't fallen off much. He's got a chance to be the breakout type, much like the next guy on this list.
     
    10. LaMonte Wade OF
     
    As a 9th round pick in 2015, Wade hasn't gotten the fanfare he's deserved until recently. Despite posting .840 + OPS numbers in each of his first two pro seasons, he really only began to be a name more commonly known. Now at Double-A Chattanooga, Wade owns an .837 OPS on the year, and has already hit seven longballs. If the Twins really wanted to test him, he could be up filling in for Byron Buxton right now. He's got a tremendous eye at the plate, and controls the zone well. There's a lot to like here, and the ceiling is higher than just a fourth outfielder.
     
    9. Zack Littell RHP
     
    Acquired by the Twins in a shrewd exchange that involved Jaime Garcia, Littell has shown exactly why he was the apple of Falvey and Levine's eyes. He had a strong Twins organization debut at Double-A last year, and had been great in 28 innings with Triple-A Rochester this season. His major league debut didn't go smoothly, but there's little doubt that he'll be back, and that he's a capable arm to count on as a rotation mainstay.
     
    8. Trevor Larnach OF
     
    The 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft, Larnach is of a similar mold to Twins prospect Brent Rooker. The power potential is massive, and he absolutely destroys the baseball when making contact. Swing and miss is a bit less of a worry here, although his position is certainly going to be limited to a corner outfield spot. He used all fields in college, but rarely pulled the ball. Ideally you'd like to see him shorten up a bit, and be able to get around on big league pitching to his drive side. This was a safe pick for Minnesota, and the bat should absolutely play.
     
    7. Brent Rooker OF
     
    I still think Rooker ends up at first base long term, but he's not a liability in the Robbie Grossman sense when it comes to outfield play. After a slow start at Double-A, he's really come around of late. From May 7 through June 6 (29 G), he owns an .890 OPS with seven homers. Rooker's bat was always going to be what drove his promotions, and it's played as expected. The next piece of his game that has to be addressed is the plate discipline. A 66/14 K/BB at Double-A is only going to get wider as he moves upwards.
     
    6. Alex Kirilloff OF
     
    Coming off of Tommy John surgery, it wasn't so much a worry that Kirilloff wouldn't rebound, as much as it was about how the time off would effect him. The short answer has been, not much. While Royce Lewis got the early fanfare as the latest first round pick, it's Kirilloff who's been shining of late as well. His .978 OPS is comprised of 11 homers and 17 doubles through 55 games. It's been a heck of a return to the diamond, and the bat first prospect has been nothing short of exciting.
     
    5. Stephen Gonsalves LHP
     
    After dominating Double-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA through four starts, Gonsalves was moved up to Triple-A. He owns a 4.13 ERA through seven starts, but the numbers are inflated by a few clunkers. His 10.5 K/9 is more than impressive, but it's the 5.5 BB/9 that still cause the Twins pause. Command has always been the last part of the puzzle for the crafty lefty, and it'll be the piece he needs to hone in before jumping to the big leagues.
     
    4. Brusdar Graterol RHP
     
    Now completely healthy, the Twins next flamethrower has been must see baseball on the mound for the Kernels. His few DL stints this year seem much more roster manipulation than genuine cause for concern. He's gone six trips through the rotation, and owns a 1.95 ERA in 32.1 IP. With a triple-digit fastball in his arsenal, the 11.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 suggest he could probably use a new challenge sometime soon.
     
    3. Nick Gordon SS
     
    While shortstop may not be Nick Gordon's longterm home, it probably works out better that way for the Twins roster construction. Yes, he faded down the stretch at Double-A last year, but he's been nothing short of exceptional in 2018. His .906 OPS across 42 games with Chattanooga earned him a bump to Triple-A Rochester. In 16 games since his promotion, he's hitting .350/.371/.467. The five home runs continue to drive home the notion that the nine in 2017 were real, and he could turn into a 15-20 longball guy at the next level. He should be the Twins Opening Day second basemen in 2019, and there's little reason to worry about it.
     
    2. Fernando Romero RHP
     
    It took just 21 innings at Triple-A for the Twins to decide that Romero was ready for the big time. His 2.57 ERA with Rochester came with some walks (4.3 BB/9), but the stuff was absolutely going to play. Since being in the big leagues, he owns a 3.96 ERA over seven starts (36.1 IP). He was lights out against some good teams in the early going, and he's thrown in a clunker or two as well. Long term, he still profiles as an ace, and pairing him with Jose Berrios should give Minnesota a solid one-two punch for quite some time.
     
    1. Royce Lewis SS
     
    After making it to Cedar Rapids to conclude his first season in pro ball, Lewis has torn up the Midwest League this season as well. Currently his OPS is down to .750, but it rested at .799 through 40 games just over a week ago. The power hasn't really shown up yet, but it should come in time. He has plenty of room to fill out and gain muscle, so there isn't much cause for concern. Expect him to hit High-A Fort Myers for the second half of the year, and tracking towards a 2020 MLB debut is very plausible.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Ted Schwerzler
    June 4, 2018 kicks off the Major League Baseball draft. With the Minnesota Twins making their first selection at 20th overall, the next crop of future faces to grace Target Field will fill out in the coming days. As players come off the board, the professional careers of hundreds will begin in earnest. Although their impact won't be felt at the highest level for quite some time, this is a big event for Twins fans, the organization, and those now joining it.
     
    Throughout the entirety of the 40 round process, you'll find players selected as well as their pertinent information updated below. Please take a look back at the 2017 class here.
     
    Let's get into it:
     
    Round 1, Pick 20- Trevor Larnach, OF Oregon State @trevorlarnach
    Round 2, Pick 59- Ryan Jeffers, C UNC Wilmington @Ryan_Jeffers8
    Round 4, Pick 124- DaShawn Keirsey, CF Utah
    Round 5, Pick 154- Cole Sands, RHP Florida State @ColeSands
    Round 6, Pick 184- Charles Mack, SS Williamsville East HS (NY)
    Round 7, Pick 214- Josh Winder, RHP Virginia Military Institue
    Round 8, Pick 244- Chris Williams, C Clemson
    Round 9, Pick 274- Willie Joe Garry Jr., CF Pascagoula HS
    Round 10, Pick 304- Regi Grace, RHP Madison Central HS @rjgrace1
    Round 11, Pick 334- Michael Helman, 2B Texas A&M @theHELM_
    Round 12, Pick 364- Jon Olsen, RHP UCLA
    Round 13, Pick 394- Trevor Casanova, C CSU Northridge @TrevorCasanova
    Round 14, Pick 424- Erick Rivera, OF Escuela Superior Urbana
    Round 15, Pick 454- Kody Funderburk, LHP Dallas Baptist U @KodyFunderburk
    Round 16, Pick 484- Anthony Tuionetoa, RHS Baldwin HS
    Round 17, Pick 514- Erik Cha, LHS Cal St. Fullerton @_erikcha
    Round 18, Pick 544- Andrew Cabezas, RHP Miami @Andrew35Cabezas
    Round 19, Pick 574- Austin Schulfer, RHS UW Milwaukee @FollowSchulfer
    Round 20, Pick 604- Seth Pinkerton, RHS U Hartford @S_Pink8
    Round 21, Pick 634- Gabe Snyder, 1B Wright State @Gabe_Snyder
    Round 22, Pick 674- Jacob Blank, RHS Augustana College @jacob_blank
    Round 23, Pick 694- Albee Weiss, C CSU Northridge
    Round 24, Pick 724- Michael Davis, 3B Texas Tech
    Round 25, Pick 754- Laron Smith, C Foothills Composite
    Round 26, Pick 784- Brian Rapp, RHP Boston College @Brapp1327
    Round 27, Pick 814- Hunter Lee, RHR High Point @hunterthelee3
    Round 28, Pick 844- Austin Hale, C Stetson @halea10
    Round 29, Pick 874- J.T. Perez, LHS Cincinnati @JTPerez8
    Round 30, Pick 904- Seth Halvorsen, RHP Heritage Christian Academy @HalvorsenSeth
    Round 31, Pick 934- Zach Neff P, Miss St. @neffsaid13
    Round 32, Pick 964- Ryan Holgate, OF Davis Senior HS @HolgateRyan
    Round 33, Pick 994- Denny Bentley, LHP Howard College @denny_bentley33
    Round 34, Pick 1024- Dylan Stowell, P California Baptist U @dylanstowell25
    Round 35, Pick 1054- Tanner Howell, RHS Dixie St U @T_Howell329
    Round 36, Pick 1084- Zac Taylor, CF Illinois @zactaylor15
    Round 37, Pick 1114- Luke Ritter, RF Wichita St @RitterLuke
    Round 38, Pick 1144- Dylan Thomas, RHS Hawaii
    Round 39, Pick 1174- Bryce Collins, RHP Hart HS @Bryce_Collins21
    Round 40, Pick 1204- Tyler Webb, SS Memphis @TWEBB8
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Ted Schwerzler
    Tonight, the 2018 Major League Baseball draft gets underway with the first round. As a handful of amateurs begin their professional careers, the event is one of the highlights to take place during the calendar year. After a very good 2017 season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine won't have the luxury of the first overall pick this time around. Last season, the front office put together what was considered a very strong draft. They'll look to replicate those results this time around.
     
    A year removed from being selected, this day gives us an opportunity to look back on where the players taken in the first 10 rounds are at right now. With plenty of impact talent plucked off the board, Minnesota has been able to bolster the system as a whole by utilizing names from the 2017 class.
     
    With just around a year of pro baseball under their belts, here's where the newest Twins currently find themselves:
     
    Royce Lewis (1-1)
     
    As the number one overall pick a season ago, the Twins hit the nail on the head with Lewis. He's excelled at each level in his young pro career, and should jump to High-A Fort Myers shortly after his 19th birthday. Lewis owns a .312/.359/.422 slash line for the Kernels this year, and has been nothing short of a superstar on and off the field.
     
    Brent Rooker (1-35)
     
    Rooker was going to be put on an aggressive path as a senior sign and bat first player. He was sent to Double-A Chattanooga to begin 2018, and could see time with the Twins as early as next year. The .245/.287/.420 line has room for improvement, but he's been on a tear of late. The power has played plenty for Rooker, and the next hurdle to overcome is plate discipline (59/10 K/BB).
     
    Landon Leach (2-37)
     
    Participating in Extended Spring Training, Leach has not played in 2018. With the GCL Twins last season, he posted a 3.38 ERA across 13.1 IP. He's still settling in on the mound having made the transition from behind the plate.
     
    Blayne Enlow (3-76)
     
    One of the steals of the draft, Enlow has been great in his young career for Minnesota. He's pitching with Low-A Cedar Rapids, and despite dealing with some injury issues, owns a 3.81 ERA across seven starts. He's got room to develop into a more swing and miss pitcher, but the early returns have been plenty promising.
     
    Charlie Barnes (4-106)
     
    Spending all of 2018 thus far at High-A Fort Myers, Barnes has been steady. He owns a 4.42 ERA and has turned in 38.2 IP across eight starts. His offspeed stuff remains some of the best in the organization, and settling in to his other offerings will be key to his development.
     
    Andrew Bechtold (5-136)
     
    Regarded as another savvy pick by the Twins a year ago, the Juco product was seen as a nice bat. He's struggling at Cedar Rapids this year, positing just a .471 OPS across 40 games. Coming off an .829 OPS at Elizabethton last year, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll right the ship. His alma mater Chipola, just repeated as NJCAA National Champs.
     
    Ricardo De La Torre (6-166)
     
    Another EST participant, De La Torre has not yet played in 2018. He turns 19 next month, and will be assigned to another short season team. For the GCL Twins last season, he slashed .268/.341/.359 across 42 games.
     
    Ryley Widell (7-196)
     
    Widell just turned 21 and is currently at EST with the Twins. He played for E-Town last year, and could find his way to Cedar Rapids by the end of the year. He's yet to pitch this season, but posted a 2.43 ERA across 29.2 IP in his first professional season.
     
    Bryan Sammons (8-226)
     
    After making it to Cedar Rapids in his debut season a year ago, Sammons has spent the entirety of 2018 there. He's made eight starts thus far, and owns a very nice 2.70 ERA. Although the strikeouts have dipped to a 7.9 K/9, he's been very good with command, allowing just 2.7 BB/9.
     
    Mark Contreras (9-256)
     
    Spending just seven games in Iowa to start the year, Contreras was quickly promoted to High-A Fort Myers. He owns a .797 OPS in 30 games with the Miracle, and he's continuing to develop in the outfield.
     
    Calvin Faucher (10-286)
     
    Faucher has spent time with both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. He earned an early promotion, but then scuffled in his first taste of High-A. On the year, he owns a 1.06 ERA with Cedar Rapids in 17.0 IP, and a 7.30 ERA across 12.1 IP with the Miracle. Pushing for more strikeouts and less walks will help him to even things out.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins dropped their 8th game in walkoff fashion while playing the Kansas City Royals deep into the May 29th evening. Accomplishing that feat means they've surpassed the mark set in each of the previous 13 seasons, and 43 of their 58 in franchise history. While walkoff scenarios can sometimes be a fluke, there's a systemic trend that has Minnesota in the dire position they now face. The pitching is there, but the offense has been nonexistent.
     
    Going into the year, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were vocal about retooling a pitching staff that needed a lift. Despite a successful 2017 campaign, it was clear that Paul Molitor's offense couldn't continue to bail out the pitching staff. Using a franchise record number of starters as well as arms in total, the quality level needed to be increased in order to reduce the quantity. Now nearly through May, it's fair to say that much has been accomplished.
     
    Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios lead the club in terms of fWAR with tallies of 1.4. Each pitcher has put up a clunker or two, but the vast majority of their outings have been very strong. Gibson has picked up where he left off down the stretch and expanded upon it. Now a strikeout pitcher, he's missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard. Jose Berrios has shown a better level of control, which has led to a walk rate nearly halved from a season ago.
     
    Even beyond the top two starters on the staff, Garvin Alston's group has been plenty good. Jake Odorizzi has served the part of a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm, while Lance Lynn has turned in two recent starts totaling out to a 1.42 ERA. Fernando Romero has burst onto the scene as a potential ace for the future, and the depth down on the farm looks better than ever. To suggest that this is the best Twins rotation in quite some time would be putting it nicely.
     
    Although the bullpen hasn't been quite as sharp, there's a lot to like out there as well. Ryan Pressly looks like one of the best relievers in baseball, while Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney have performed as expected. Zach Duke has been shaky thanks to an uncharacteristic amount of free passes, but the strikeouts have saved him from more trouble. There's room for growth in relief, but the reality is that it's not the significant problem area that the Twins have experienced in the past.
     
    Pitching as a whole has made significant strides within the organization, and it's evident when comparing the club to the league as a whole. Although team ERA checks in at 16th currently (finished 19th in 2017), starter ERA sits at 12th (19th in 2017). Arguably the most impressive boost comes in the form of missing bats, something previous Twins teams simply did not do. In 2018, Minnesota starters have the 9th best K/9 in MLB, and they finished at 26th a season ago.
     
    All of the above represents some very positive developments. The problem however, is that the lineup is doing very little with what they've been handed.
     
    After finishing 7th in runs scored, 10th in extra base hits, and 16th in home runs a season ago, the expectation was for potency from this group. Unfortunately, Minnesota ranks 29th in runs, 29th in home runs, and 19th in extra base hits as of May 30th. Producing at what amounts to a near league worst value, it really doesn't matter what kind of outings Twins pitchers produce.
     
    Through their eight walkoff losses, five of them have come against teams with records at .500 or worse. On the season, Minnesota has played 20% of their first 50 games by scoring one run or less. Simply put, there's way too many guys failing at their jobs up and down the lineup.
     
    Among starters, the Twins have six players with an OPS below .750. Byron Buxton has given Paul Molitor nothing at the plate, while Brian Dozier has decided to slump for a significant period yet again this season. Miguel Sano has dropped off the table when it comes to forcing a fair amount of walks, and Logan Morrison is still attempting to find his footing after a disastrous transition to his new club.
     
    Right now, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are the only players providing Minnesota any sort of value in the lineup. Eduardo Escobar's hot streak is long gone, and the bench is made up of a handful of players that really have no business being in the big leagues. What's more dire for the Twins is that answers don't really present themselves outside of the clubhouse. Calling up Nick Gordon could provide a spark, but it would be short lived until Jorge Polanco returns. Chris Carter may provide some thump to the lineup, but he could also be an exact replica of what Sano is currently providing.
     
    At the end of the day, it's on the players currently a part of the 25 man (and more importantly the starting lineup) to get their bats going. While veteran leadership off the field is great, there's no better way to lead than by producing while it matters. Sano, Dozier, Buxton, and a handful of others need to get going. The postseason is likely a distant mirage at this point, but turning things around, salvaging something of purpose, and giving the pitching staff much better than they've been afforded are all musts if this collective wants to be taken seriously in the future.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Ted Schwerzler
    The NBA Finals are now upon us. A culmination of an 82 game season, along with a tightly contested playoff tree, has led us here. Where exactly is here you may wonder? Well, the exact point that could have been expected way back in October. For the fourth straight season, the Golden State Warriors will meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals. Given the predictability of the championship series, expecting the sport to be overlooked would be a good bet; it'd also be a wrong one however. Major League Baseball is an incredibly different sport, but the game could learn a lot from Adam Silver's exploits.
     
    Providing full disclosure from the get go, I am not a fan of the NBA. I do enjoy basketball, but watch intently through the college realm. The NBA has the superstars, but the regular season is a slog of meaningless minutes and uninspired play. With elevator music going on during the action, it seems the league is determined to keep fans involved during weeknight matchups in any way possible. Regardless of my feelings on the league itself, there's zero denying that a large portion of the formula is right.
     
    As the NFL sees ratings take a dip, the NBA has been there to pick up the straggles. Although Roger Goodell is a buffoon, his league remains the most popular in this country. Adam Silver's NBA has quickly risen the ranks however, and now find themselves firmly entrenched as America's number two sport. Marketability in the NBA is off the charts, and a league that's dominated by superstars continues to draw interest levels at an incredible pace. While Rob Manfred struggles through pace of play issues and ways to change the game, drawing from what works elsewhere may be a worthy venture.
     
    Having a marketing background, that tends to be my main area of focus when it comes to how the NBA has ballooned into such a cash cow. Superstars are celebrated and adored, while shoes are most have pieces of memorabilia that fans can connect with on a daily basis. The game itself is one of sexiness, and nothing is done to hinder individuality. Although that may simply scratching the surface, those three avenues are paths that Major League Baseball should emulate in any ways possible.
     
    First and foremost, baseball is a very regional sport. I understand that makes marketing players to the masses somewhat of a challenge. LeBron James is adored by fans not only in Cleveland but across the globe. In baseball, Mike Trout is far and away the best player in the world, but the sport finds reason to argue whether those from other markets (a la Mookie Betts) can contend at the same level. Trout is heralded among baseball fans, but he's hardly emulated in the same form or fashion as LeBron.
     
    Understandably, Mike Trout doesn't have the appeal that LeBron James does to the casual fan. LeBron is a singular name, and while Trout could be argued in that category as well, he doesn't embrace the ability to transcend so many different types of people. James is a walking billboard and pop icon; he embraces those realities. Trout is much more laid back, and ok with taking that route as well.
     
    It's hard to suggest baseball is at fault for making its superstars something they are not as individuals, but it's more than fair to question why the individuals aren't given a bigger stage. Doing more to market the Kris Bryant's and Luis Severino's of the sport would lend a hand towards growing a younger demographic. Youth connect to individuals more than teams, and finding a way to capitalize on the current backbone of the game is a must. There was some outcry in regards to Sony's MLB The Show 17 putting Ken Griffey Jr. on the cover, and it follows this line of thinking as well. With so many must see talents today, skipping out on the marketing opportunity was an odd choice. Aaron Judge rectify's that misstep (even with Babe Ruth included virtually this season), and could be a small step down the right path.
     
    Continuing along the lines of individuality, baseball needs to avoid taking itself too seriously. Without fostering a meaningless regular season like basketball, the sport could benefit from a higher level of encouraged uniqueness. During basketball's regular season, one-on-one opportunities provide highlight reel plays. Individuals showcase themselves by wearing unique shoes that become must have commodities. Abilities during play become the storylines for plenty of pickup games across the nation.
     
    It's hard to fault baseball for failing to drive shoe sales from their superstars. No matter how cool Mike Trout's latest cleat is, the reality is that it will never be applicable for daily wear. That being said, going viral for an attempt to fine a player like Ben Zobrist for wearing PF Flyer's is hardly a good look. On more than just special occasions, MLB should be encouraging players (and footwear companies) to create desirable and individualized looks for wear during the action (the NFL is at fault here as well). Creating more positive buzz about what superstars are wearing allows fans to connect with those they follow in a different way.
     
    That level of individuality and emotion shouldn't stop at the uniform however. It's long been time to abandon some of the stingier unwritten rules of the game. Showing emotion after key strikeouts, bat flips after a big home run, or jubilant displays of excitement following a key play should become mainstays in the sport. Basketball thrives off of the big slam and stare down, or the clutch three and finger wave. Plunking players or starting brawls because of emotion has become a true inhibitor of growth. Both participant and fan can quickly assess whether or not something is being done in an attempt to show up a competitor, and outside of that scenario, there's plenty of room for accomplishments to be celebrated.
     
    Finally, and pace of play be damned, there's nothing better for Major League Baseball than the big play. Where baseball has dunks and football has touchdowns, a home run is a significantly greater athletic feat. Watching a 90+ mph be turned around to travel something like 400 feet is a modern marvel. Rather than allowing questions of why the ball itself has changed to run rampant through the media, embracing the statistical output should be of peak interest. Despite allowing steroids to get out of hand in the sport, Bud Selig saved his game from itself in the post strike years by encouraging home runs to come at a ridiculous pace.
     
    With the amount of slugging power hitters in the game today, seeing lineups like the Yankees launch longballs at record setting paces is something that should be talked about more. Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and other big blast bombers should be nightly mainstays on the highlight reals, and finding new ways to describe their exploits can be part of the equation. There's a love for the pitcher's duel from baseball purists, but it's always going to be offense that drives the train when it comes to a level of excitement.
     
    At the end of the day, it's unfair to expect baseball to be something it isn't. Both football and basketball have a much larger level of action simply in how the sport is played. Knowing that however, it's increasingly detrimental for MLB to stymie the game in ways that it doesn't need to. While four hour slogs aren't good for anyone, the focus should be on marketability of those competing as the backbone of the league, and why you should tune in. There's opportunity for baseball to grow, but the sport itself needs to do a much better job harnessing it.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Ted Schwerzler
    After making the hard, but correct, decision to move on from Phil Hughes, the Twins put some roster shuffling into motion. Trevor May, Ervin Santana, and Miguel Sano are all due back to the big league roster in short order. Paul Molitor's club is putting some heat on the scuffling Indians and the time to strike for Minnesota is right now. How they construct the 25 man going forward remains somewhat up in the air, but here's a few guess on what things may look like.
     
    Phil Hughes replaced by Ryan LaMarre
     
    The outfielder is on his way back to the big leagues. After being a spring training surprise, LaMarre posted a .718 OPS across 38 plate appearances in 20 games for Minnesota. Since heading down to Rochester, he's continued to stay hot. At Triple-A, he has a .371/.436/.543 slash line across nine games and 39 plate appearances.
     
    The Twins don't really need six outfielders on the 25 man roster, and especially not with the talent embedded among their starting trio. That said, there's really no infield options that make sense here. It's too late for Nick Gordon as Sano isn't far off, and there aren't any more veteran placeholder types to call upon. This move could be short lived for LaMarre, but he appears to be destined for the 25th spot as of now.
     
    Jake Cave replaced by Trevor May
     
    While noting that LaMarre's time with the Twins could be short lived, it's also true that Cave could be the guy optioned in about a week. Trevor May is eligible to come off the disabled list on May 28, and every inclination is that he'll be activated that day. Having made starts with both Fort Myers and Rochester, May has been great in his seven innings pitched since returning from Tommy John surgery. The velocity has been there, and he's posted 10 strikes (with 5 walks), giving up just one run on four hits. Yes, he's working as a starter, but I just don't see room right now.
     
    Should the Twins tab May for the spot Hughes was occupying in the pen, he can continue to stay stretched out in working as the long man. With the ability to give Garvin Alston two or three innings of work at a time, May provides some nice bullets in relief and also doubles as a fallback option in a spot start scenario.
     
    Gregorio Petit replaced by Miguel Sano
     
    Just a bit further out than May, Sano's return looms for the Twins. He's yet to play a full nine innings in the field during his three game rehab stint, but that's the next hurdle he'll overcome. There's no doubt he's a big boy, and adding that wrinkle to a hamstring injury doesn't help things. If the malady is behind him though, Minnesota could use that extra thump in their lineup sooner rather than later.
     
    Once he's fully cleared, Sano should slide back in at third base moving Eduardo Escobar back to shortstop. It's unfortunate Escobar can't hack it defensively at short like he can at third, but the bat upgrade over Adrianza should be a noticeable one.
     
    Matt Magill replaced by Joe Mauer
     
    Here's where the dart throws begin in this whole process. First and foremost, we aren't sure when Mauer will be ready to return to the Twins lineup. Going on the DL effective May 19, the Twins first basemen is eligible to return on May 29th. Given his history of concussion related issues, it's far from certain that he'll be cleared in the given 10-day timespan.
     
    Ideally, Mauer returns in short order and provides Minnesota the Gold Glove caliber defense they've come to trust at first. It's hard to imagine he'd replace a position player, as the Twins bench would be significantly dwindled in that scenario. With eight relievers, Magill would seem to be the odd man out. He's posted a 1.54 ERA and 7.7 K/9 while owning a great 0.8 BB/9 across his 11.2 IP. A move like this would be just a tough luck situation for the reclamation relief project.
     
    TBD replaced by Ervin Santana
     
    Call it a cop out, but I'm not ready to put a name on this move. Simply put, the Minnesota Twins have way too many moving parts in the starting rotation to determine who Santana will replace just under a month from now. I'd be shocked to see him before the middle of June, and making his first rehab start this week, he'll need at least three or four good turns to be big league ready.
     
    Sure, it's an easy call if things stay like they are now. Lance Lynn being ineffective would bump him to the DL for a time and Santana could slot right in. Fernando Romero having his innings limited and being sent back to Triple-A could be an option. The real answer may have not yet presented itself and there may be an injury that allows Minnesota to have the decision made for them. The only thing worth banking on is that Santana will have a spot when he's ready. Where he slots in remains of little importance.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. Ted Schwerzler
    One of the most logical candidates to have a breakout season for the Minnesota Twins in 2018 was right fielder Max Kepler. The talented German had flashed ability to do it all down on the farm, and despite being a solid regular for Minnesota, didn't yet seem to have put it all together at the highest level. Now just under two months into the regular season, we've seen the start of the breakout, but rest assured that there's more to come.
     
    In early April, I wrote about Kepler's approach at the plate. He's been relatively vocal about not intending to increase his launch angle, and instead hit the ball hard on the ground. Thankfully he hasn't followed through with that practice, and he's benefited from elevating the baseball in 2018. Getting more loft on the ball, while continuing to hit it hard, is absolutely a strong blueprint for success. What's even more encouraging for the Minnesota right-fielder is that we haven't seen the results indicative of just how good the approach has been thus far.
     
    On the season, Kepler has posted a career best .803 OPS. He has 19 extra base hits through his first 169 plate appearances, and he's already tallied six longballs. The .250 average is just a slight bump from his .243 resting spot a year ago, but the .337 OBP is indicative of an approach that has yielded an incredible 22/20 K/BB ratio. After struggling to hit lefties last season, even to the point of being platooned against them, he's flipped the script entirely. Kepler owns a 1.120 OPS vs LHP in 2018, while posting a .694 OPS against RHP. The expectation should have always been that he'd hit both types of pitchers given his minor league track record, but this level of production is a very nice surprise.
     
    As good as Kepler has been for Paul Molitor though, the best part is that we're probably just scratching the surface. In 2018 thus far, Max owns just a .256 BABIP to go with his .250 average. That number seems unsustainably low given the numbers surrounding it.
     
    With as well as Kepler is elevating the ball, more impressively yet is how hard he's hitting it. The 44.1% hard hit rate is a career best by over 10%, and he'd putting the ball on the ground a career low 37.8% of the time. Despite those factors working in his favor, his 10.5% HR/FB rate suggests there's plenty of room for growth.
    On top of the quality generated behind contact, Kepler isn't getting cheated at the dish either. His 7.7% swinging strike rate is a career best, and he's chasing pitches just 26.5% of the time, a career low. He's also setting another career high with an 83.5% contact rating. If anything, Kepler could be a bit more choosy in an effort to boost his pitchers per plate appearance above 4.0 (currently 3.91) in an effort to see something more juicy.
     
    Trying to tie a bow on what the numbers are telling us, Max Kepler has basically put the big leagues on notice. He's driving the ball with authority, and creating the best contact numbers of his career. On top of that, he's doing it against pitchers who attack him from both sides of the plate, and he's created a blueprint that should only help his counting stats to further balloon from here on out. While Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar have paced the Twins in the early going, a blistering stretch from Max could very well be right around the corner.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Ted Schwerzler
    Seven starts into his 2018 season with the Minnesota Twins, Lance Lynn has been nothing short of an abomination. He owns a 7.34 ERA, 1.981 WHIP, and is surrendering 6.6 free passes per nine innings. All of those numbers are ugly, but what's most interesting, is that Lynn's secondary numbers suggest he could be very good if he stops doubting himself.
     
    Now to be sure, doubt may not be the most appropriate word to describe what is going on with Lynn. At the core of his issues is simply the fact that he has decided not to throw strikes. Over the course of his career, Lynn has been in the zone 41.6% of the time. In his early years with the Cardinals, he attacked the zone at an even higher percentage. While not the same measurement, in 2018 for the Twins, Lynn has thrown strikes on just 58.5% of his offerings. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery last year, that number was 59%. In 2015 it was 61.5%, and in 2014 it was 62.6%.
     
    Across the board, the most glaring issue for the Twins free agent acquisition is his inability to work in or near the zone enough to entire hitters.
     
    In fact, if we look at some of Lynn's secondary numbers, his stuff is actually playing a bit better than career norms. His 2,300+ spin rate on average for pitches thrown this season is up from last year, and his velocity has seen about a one mile per hour spike as well. He's generating swinging strikes 10.8% of the time, which is a career best. His 30.4% chase rate is the 2nd best mark of his career, and he's allowing contact at a career low 75.9% mark.
    Doing so many other things rate, it's fair to question where that leaves him.
     
    There's a couple of things at play for the big righty. His repertoire seems to have shifted some this season. The four seam fastball usage is up nearly 8% over last year, and the sinker has dipped 10% to make up for it. In looking at the density of his pitches in the zone, we can see he's attacked completely opposite sides as well. Instead of working the left side and inner part of the zone against righties as he did so often in 2017, his 2018 balls have traveled to the right side of the zone with many of them floating over the heart of the plate.
    By taking a look at how he's attacking batters, or in this instance isn't, we can gather a good idea of what his batted ball numbers should look like. Issuing 6.6 walks per nine and over 11 hits in that same span, opposing batters are invited to be patient. As such, Lynn is issuing a career worst 40.8% hard hit rate as well as a 21.4% HR/FB ratio. Despite generating ground balls at a 48.5% mark, which is a strong total, he's allowing opposing hitters to sit back, swing hard, and deposit baseballs into the seats.
     
    Of the 164 plate appearances Lynn has been on the bump for this season, 108 of them have presented scenarios in which either the batter or pitcher is ahead in the count. Across those scenarios, Lynn has been behind an astounding 65% (70/108) of the time. In the 70 plate appearances where Lynn has been pitching from behind, he's ceded 25 walks and allowed opposing hitters to compile a 1.251 OPS off of him. Conversely, when working ahead in the count, Lynn has given up zero walks while striking out 16 despite still allowing a .947 OPS.
     
    Over the course of his seven year big league career, no one would suggest that Lynn is a command artist. A career 3.5 BB/9 for a starter is a bit above what you'd like to see. However, he's routinely made the process work because he's been able to throw plenty of strikes, get ahead of hitters, and put them away. Right now, Lynn has decided to nibble around the zone, strike out batters in part due to confusion, and be burned by his own inefficiency.
     
    The good news is that Lynn had next to no spring training and has plenty of time to turn things around for the Twins. The bad news is that his room for error is becoming incredibly small, and we've reached the point in which he either needs to throw the ball over the plate or changes need to be made. The stuff is there for a very good pitcher to emerge. Lynn's overall ability, repertoire, and stuff is in a better place than it was a year ago. If he isn't in a place where he believes that it plays within the parameters of the strike zone however, it doesn't much matter.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins just finished up a four game set with the Los Angeles Angels. By the time Fernando Romero was done with his five innings against Shohei Ohtani, Paul Molitor was tasked with utilizing a bullpen coming off an extra inning affair and quite a bit of recent work. What the Minnesota skipper was also having to deal with, was being a man short from beyond the outfield fence. Phil Hughes was available, but he isn't an option either.
     
    Hughes was jettisoned to the Twins bullpen after flopping in his first two starts of the year. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine likely saw this outcome coming given their decision to start Hughes on the DL out of spring training due to an "injury." Out of the pen, Hughes has been used in only the lowest of leverage situations, and has essentially taken on the role vacated by Tyler Kinley. Unlike the Rule 5 draft pick however, Hughes hums a fastball in at just 91 mph and doesn't really make anyone miss.
     
    The obvious elephant in the room here, is the $26.4 million owed to the former New York Yankees pitcher through 2019. Terry Ryan made an unwise decision in extending Hughes less than a third of the way into his first deal with the Twins. Rather than seeing more of a sample size, the veteran pitcher was given a guarantee after posting an MLB record breaking season in 2014. On the flip side, it'll be on both Falvey and Levine to come to grips with that number being a sunk cost.
     
    Right now, Paul Molitor and Garvin Alston are playing with a deck a few cards shy of a full set. The Twins have employed eight relievers often in the past few years, and that only highlights the importance placed on having quality options available out of the pen. As of May 14th, there's really only seven usable arms at Molitor's disposal.
     
    When going the extra reliever route, a team is suggesting that they're comfortable with a three-man bench. Minnesota has a trio that includes Bobby Wilson, Gregorio Petit, and Robbie Grossman. Outside of Grossman's bat, that group is a combination of journeyman that have more of a scrapiness to them than any distinct characteristics. In short, the lack of another option is a trickle down effect from what is currently taking place in relief.
     
    As things stand now, the Twins are leaving themselves short in the bullpen as well as off the bench, solely because a logical decision on Phil Hughes is being delayed.
     
    At Triple-A, Alan Busenitz is making the choices at the big league level look even more interesting. The owned of a 95 mph fastball and strikeout stuff, currently owns a 1.13 ERA and a 13/2 K/BB ratio across 8.0 IP. A year ago in 35.1 IP, Busenitz posted a 1.78 ERA and 9.9 K/9 for the Rochester Red Wings.
     
    Having made four appearances thus far with the big club in 2018, Busenitz has numbers that need improvement. Allowing three runs in just 4.0 IP, his 6.75 ERA isn't pretty. That small sample size doesn't overshadow the 1.99 ERA he posted in 31.2 IP a season ago however. In fact, I think the realistic performance lies somewhere in between. Busenitz is a better strikeout pitcher than the 6.5 K/9 he tallied in 2017, but he's probably not quite the guy who totaled just a 1.99 ERA either.
     
    At any rate, having Busenitz at his disposal would give Paul Molitor another necessary option out of the pen. Rather than subjecting Zach Duke to overuse against righties, or taxing arms like Taylor Rogers and Trevor Hildenberger, Busenitz could be worked into the mix and provide yet another quality option in a relief corps that's been significantly revamped from a year ago.
     
    Really what it comes down to is that Phil Hughes is the linchpin holding up multiple more adequate roster scenarios for the Twins. It's a tough pill to swallow when you're talking about that kind of money. Deciding to DFA Hughes isn't admitting defeat however. The reality is that he was trending downwards prior to his TOS surgery, and the list of successful recoveries is not a long one. It's time to thank him for what he's done, and push the water level of the club a bit higher.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Ted Schwerzler
    Update: The Twins put Miguel Sano on the DL today (5/1). Gregorio Petit was selected to join the 40 man roster and replace him on the 25 man roster. Dietrich Enns was DFA'd to make room for Petit. Given that the Twins are going with a fill in type player in Petit, I would assume that signifies a belief in Sano not being on the shelf for too long. Gordon would still make sense at some point in the not too distant future.
     
    After yet another ineffective start for the Minnesota Twins, Phil Hughes was guaranteed nothing by the front office and Paul Molitor. His scheduled start was listed as TBD on the press releases, and eventually the news came out that he'd been demoted to the bullpen. Top pitching prospect Fernando Romero is on his way to the big leagues and will have a chance to stick in the major league rotation. With Miguel Sano being hampered by a hamstring injury, that may not be the only top prospect making a debut for Minnesota.
     
    On Monday night when the Twins played the Toronto Blue Jays, Paul Molitor's bench included just two available options: Ryan LaMarre and Jason Castro. Given that neither of them are reliable bats at the current juncture, that's a pretty underwhelming set of reserves for a Twins club that badly needs to turn things around. With the promotion of Romero, I opined on Twitter that it signified the front office was echoing the statements of many fans. This level of performance is unexpected, and unacceptable. Instead of looking for band aids to try and get by, they were going to throw out their biggest pieces. That suggests to me that Stephen Gonsalves could soon be a rotation option, and Tyler Jay may not be far behind in relief. For the lineup though, there's one name that now jumps off the page.
     
    Minnesota's 40 man roster has been exhausted when it comes to hitters. The only player currently available and not with the big league club is Jake Cave. The outfielder, acquired from the New York Yankees this spring, is slashing .188/.322/.261 at Triple-A Rochester through his first 19 games. With Zack Granite on the disabled list, Derek Falvey may be forced into another aggressive move.
     
    It's probably time to wonder if top prospect Nick Gordon isn't ready for the big leagues.
     
    Here's the thing, it makes no sense for Gordon to come up and sit. There's also little reason to put him on the 40 man roster and start his clock if the stint at the highest level is going to be a matter of days. In regards to both of those concerns however, there's a clear path as to how things could work out.
     
    First and foremost, the playing time should be there. Eduardo Escobar is locked in as an everyday player right now. The utility man has filled in for Sano admirably, and is arguably the Twins best offensive threat going. Gordon, while not an ideal fit at shortstop, could immediately take over for Ehire Adrianza. The slick fielding Venezuelan would be a loss with his glove, but he's posted a .590 OPS and has never been a bat to rely on. Gordon would be making a big jump from Double-A Chattanooga, but his current .898 OPS in 23 games suggests he may be better than the level anyways.
     
    Secondly, there's no guarantee that Miguel Sano is going to simply need 10 days to get his leg back to full health. Hamstring pulls are tricky, and rushing them back only leads to further aggravation. The reality is that even with the ability to backdate his DL stint to April 27, the Twins could be without their starting third basemen for a matter of weeks. When he returns, slotting him into a DH role while Escobar is going hot would continue to make room for Gordon to receive regular playing time.
     
    There's a lot to digest here, and in Gordon, we're talking about a 22 year old kid with some question marks remaining in regards to his prospect status. That being said, his fielding deficiencies probably aren't going away, and that bat has continued to profile well. After a strong start to the 2017 season, he ended up with a .749 OPS. The .898 mark this year is solid, and that's bolstered by a .934 OPS over his last 16 games. Assumed the potential replacement for Brian Dozier, it's hardly a bad idea to get a look and see if he can't provide a jolt right now.
    We could have our answer sooner rather than later, but if the Twins want a spark and another aggressive move, the kid with the bloodlines should be the place to turn.
     
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  21. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins are nearly through their first month of baseball in the 2018 season. To say it's been a debacle would be putting things nicely. After an offseason that saw the 25 man roster get substantially better, as well as infused with more depth, the results have been nothing short of underwhelming. With players across the roster performing below expectations, Kyle Gibson has been a very solid bright spot.
     
    A former first round pick for the Twins, Gibson has never lived up to the promise after being selected 22nd overall in the 2009 draft. A college pitcher out of Missouri, the expectation was that he could rise through the system quickly, and be an impact arm at the highest level. The numbers in the minors were acceptable, but probably not as glowing as the Twins brass would've hoped. Then there was Tommy John surgery, and further delays on getting him to the big leagues. Now with five big league seasons under his belt, it's been somewhat of a roller coaster ride.
     
    Gibson's 2nd and 3rd major league seasons (2014/15) had the makings of a guy who could be a rotation fixture. Despite the club's struggles, Gibson was a reliable arm that you gave you something consistent, even if it wasn't top-of-the-rotation stuff. The past two seasons, the former Tigers pitcher has been optioned back to Triple-A, looked like a non-tender candidate, and then turned things back in what has appeared a relatively unpredictable manner.
     
    Going into the 2018 season, the big question mark for Kyle was whether or not his pitching down the stretch for the Twins could be considered a new norm. Over his final 11 starts, he owned a 3.55 ERA and a .720 OPS against. Shrinking the sample to his final eight starts in 2017, Gibson's numbers were even better with a 2.92 ERA and a .684 OPS against. For a guy who seemingly had already developed the book on himself, this was uncharted territory. He had gone from a question mark for the upcoming year, to being a virtual lock in a Twins rotation that would open a season with postseason aspirations for the first time in a long while.
     
    Now five turns through the rotation in 2018, and Gibson has done nothing to dispel the notion that the end of 2017 was for real. He's compiled 27 innings of work and has a 3.33 ERA to show for it. The 10.0 K/9 is a career best, and nearly four strikeouts more than the 6.4 K/9 career average he has to this point. Gibson's 1.259 WHIP is a career low, as are his 6.7 H/9 and 0.3 HR/9 numbers. If there's something to nitpick at, it's the 4.7 BB/9 he's currently conceding, which is definitely a career worst.
     
    https://twitter.com/darenw/status/990604008095182851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Foffthebaggy.blogspot.com%2F2018%2F04%2Fis-real-kyle-gibson-standing-up.html
    So, what do we make of it all? Well, despite being an extremely small sample size, there's clearly something going on here. MLB's Daren Willman pointed out recently that Kyle Gibson's slider is currently producing the most swing and miss results in comparison to any pitch thrown by any other player across the entire league. What's equally as impressive, is that Gibson's curveball comes in third on the list. Looking at his career usage rates, Kyle is deploying his slider and curve at almost identical rates to what he has always done. That suggests that the pitches themselves are not getting batters of balance. There's something else at play here.
     
    When diving into Statcast data on BaseballSavant.com, we can see that Gibson's spin rates have been on an upward trajectory for the past four years. In 2018, through his first 27 innings, he's put up career best marks for both his slider and curveball. You can take a bit deeper dive into the understanding of spin rates with Mike Petriello's piece from 2017 here. It's not that Gibson's numbers are exceptional when compared across all of baseball, but they are noteworthy among starters, and definitely jump off the page in comparison to his previous output. Generating a better pitch quality, while also garnering more movement across the zone is something that has absolutely help the Twins former first round pick.
     
    Thanks to the improvements to his pitch quality, Gibson's results are currently correlating directly with the process. A 70.2% contract rating is the lowest he's ever allowed in his career, and represents and eight percent improvement in that category. He's also getting swinging strikes at a 13.1% clip, which is over a 3% boost on his career average. The best part of all of this, is that things look somewhat sustainable.
     
    Quality of contact ratings (soft/med/hard) are virtually identical to where they were a season ago for Gibson. His 4.2% HR/FB ratio is probably going to rise as it normalizes a bit, but being a sinkerballer, the home run has never been something that's plagued him too heavily. The .275 BABIP is lower than his .328 mark in 2017, and .308 career total, but it isn't completely out of whack either. In fact, Gibson owns a 3.11 FIP number to date, which suggests that his controllable production is even a bit better than what the actual output has dictated.
     
    To step out from behind the numbers, there's a few things that we can say with near certainty. First and foremost, we're dealing with a small 27 inning sample size. There's a possibility that this portion of the season becomes and outlier as opposed to a reflection of change. That being said, we can also determine that two pitches Gibson throws are being tossed across the plate in their best forms of his entire career. At the age of 30, he's developed strong secondary pitches, and pairing that with his sinker has been a very nice development.
     
    I don't expect Gibson to strike out double-digit batters per nine innings over the course of 2018, and thinking he'll walk nearly five per game seems foolish too. There's no doubting that his repertoire boost has worked to his benefit however, and that could be the key that unlocks all of his potential, whatever that may be.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Ted Schwerzler
    Miguel Sano is one of the Minnesota Twins most prolific hitters, and right now, he's also one of their worst. Through 17 games in the 2018 season, he's had 75 plate appearances and owns a .191/.253/.426 slash line. What's positive is that there's a very clear path to righting the ship. The downside is that the path is one that doesn't come easily for players toting power bats.
     
    Thus far, Sano has struck out 32 times while drawing just eight walks. Extrapolating those numbers over a full 162 game season gives us a 305/57 K/BB ratio. Both of those numbers would be a career high, the strikeouts would be an MLB record, and it would be nearly a doubling of his 178 whiffs in 2016. To be transparent, I have no real problem with a three true outcomes type of hitter, but right now, Sano has to right the ship in order to produce more of the two positive outcomes.
     
    Let's start with some good news. Sano owns an 18.2% swinging strike rate. That number is tied for 3rd worst in all of baseball, but it's directly in line with how he finished 2017. It's also in the same company as players like J.D. Martinez, Javier Baez, and Yoenis Cespedes. If you aren't a fan of swinging and missing, a more encouraging number is Sano's contact rate (63.3%) and his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone (78%). The former is a slight improvement from 2017, while the latter represents a new career high. To summarize, it's not as if Sano is missing hittable pitches, and he's got a very similar approach to what he's always done.
     
    Here's where things get off track however. The Twins third-basemen owns a career worst 33.2% chase rate. That number is up four percent from a year ago, and expanding the strike zone doesn't allow for him to truly harness his power. We see that evidenced by his hard hit rate as well, which at 35.1% is the lowest mark of his career. After owning the 4th best hard hit rate in baseball last season, Sano's current total puts him barely inside the top 100 among qualified hitters this year.
    Given the fluctuations in contact quality, it also matters how Sano is putting the ball in play. While the goal should always be to elevate the baseball, doing so with hard contact is a must. Right now, Sano has a career high 51.4% fly ball ratio, but he's dropped his line drive rate to a career worst 10.8%. With his HR/FB number dipping to 21.1% after 27.5% in 2017, we can see a perfect storm of negative events. Miguel is currently hitting the ball weaker, more up than on a line, and fewer baseballs are leaving the yard. For a guy looking to walk or homer nearly as often as he strikes out, the process has become a bit busted.
     
    Earlier I noted that the blueprint for a fix is there however, and that remains true. As a right handed batter, pitchers have decided their best opportunity to work around Sano is to attack the zone low and away. The graph shown allows us to see that Miguel has helped out his opponents far too often this season. When he's offered at pitches, nearly 10% of the time he's doing so with little opportunity of making anything positive happen. Unless he waits back significantly and drives the low and outside pitch to right field, it's hard to get any lift or power generated on a ball you're reaching for.
    Over the course of his career, Sano has shown an ability to go to all fields. While his spray chart skews home runs more to the pull side, the opposite fences aren't ignored. There's plenty of scatted doubles to be had the other way, and three of his four career triples have been sent to right field. The goal isn't necessarily to make Sano a hitter determined to use all fields as much as it is to impress upon him that dictating plate appearances is something that a batter of his caliber should be doing. Given the opposing pitcher is aware that mistakes will put them a run down, Sano must be more choosy in regards to the times he takes the bat off of his shoulder.
     
    It's still early in the year, and there's plenty of opportunity for the ship to be righted. This isn't the blistering start that the Dominican native got off to a year ago, but it's hardly a death sentence either. If Sano is really going to be a three true outcomes hitter that's fine, but the process has to be one conducive to productive results.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Ted Schwerzler
    After a drubbing to the New York Yankees in their first matchup since the Wild Card loss last season, the Minnesota Twins had some questions to be answered. Jake Odorizzi struggled, and the bullpen provided little in the form of relief. With position player Ryan LaMarre finishing out the game, Paul Molitor needed some reinforcements, but the question now is; where do they come from?
     
    Leaving spring training, the Twins found themselves needing to juggle a bullpen to include Rule 5 pick Tyler Kinley. He looked promising with velocity out the wazoo, but in what we've seen thus far, little else has come with it. By including Kinley and Gabriel Moya (thanks to a timely Phil Hughes injury) on the 25 man roster, relief staple Tyler Duffey found himself making the trip to upstate New York. Since then, Alan Busenitz has also appeared out of the pen with the big club.
     
    After the 13-run loss, and fourth straight defeat, the Twins optioned Busenitz back to the farm. He'd posted a 6.75 ERA across four innings of work, and while the seven strikeouts are nice, the eight hits are far too many. Moya had been jettisoned previously, as he owned a 10.80 ERA across just 5.0 IP. Giving up three longballs in his brief work thus far, a tweak has to be made as he's now allowed five in just 11.1 IP at the major league level. Kinley is still being held onto after being invested in as a Rule 5 player, but the 24.30 ERA across 3.1 IP simply is unacceptable.
     
    To a certain extent, the problem for Minnesota lies in what moves they've already made. Getting Duffey back to the big league level is a good move. He's posted a 0.00 ERA across 11 IP at Triple-A, and owns a 14/1 K/BB. Behind him though, the options for Molitor and the front office are a lot of the names we've already seen. Busenitz and Moya both look like capable big league relievers to me, but neither has shown they are there right now. John Curtiss could be the next man up from Rochester, but he too would need to get off on the right foot. Outside of those names, there isn't another relief arm on the 40 man roster.
     
    At Triple-A Rochester, Jake Reed (who's currently on the DL), D.J. Baxendale, and Mason Melotakis are all names of intrigue. Of them, Reed probably has the most upside. None of those three are any sort of a sure thing however, and dipping down a level lower would be asking someone to make a big jump for the Twins. There is the option to ask a starter like Fernando Romero to work out of the pen, but unless he's used semi-regularly, that could be at a detriment to his development.
     
    What this all boils down to is Paul Molitor needing more from the guys currently expected to bolster his pitching staff. Both Odorizzi and Lance Lynn need to be better out of the rotation. When entering from relief, it's been Addison Reed, Ryan Pressly, or bust. Trevor Hildenberger has to return to 2017 form, and Taylor Rogers desperately needs to string together a few strong outings. There isn't a golden ticket waiting to happen, and the cream really needs to rise to the top.
     
    It's absolutely fair to note that the Twins have pitching depth, and it's also fair to suggest that there's a relative quality about it. That being said, the early season returns have been underwhelming, and the group as a whole must do some soul-searching to find out what more each individual can offer.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Ted Schwerzler
    The Minnesota Twins have played fewer games than anyone in Major League Baseball thus far in the 2018 season. With weather cancellations and scheduled off days, Paul Molitor's club has almost been off the field for as long as they've been on it. Of the 11 games they have played however, Jose Berrios has pitched in three of them. While it's too early to draw any substantial conclusions, if the immediate returns are any indication, the bar as to just how good the Puerto Rican can be has been raised.
     
    Jose Berrios routinely found himself on top prospect lists in 2015 and 2016. He was considered a top 30 prospect across the league, and topped out at #17 on Baseball Prospectus' list prior to the 2016 season. The reports surrounding his ability on the farm were glowing, but the general consensus was that he profiled as a number three starter with the potential to reach #2 type heights. What wasn't expected was for Berrios to profile as an ace. Those expectations were shared by plenty around the game, but the one who likely disagreed with them, was none other than Jose himself.
     
    A workout warrior, Berrios has made a habit of posting his beach sessions during the offseason. He's pushed cars and flipped tires, all while continuing to hone his game from the mound as well. The result thus far in 2018 has been nothing short of exceptional. Opposing hitters have been overmatched, and Berrios has kept his inefficiency bugaboo at bay as well. Keeping this up would put him on the trajectory entering into that ace conversation. So, how is he doing it?
     
    Velocity isn't the key here for Jose, as he's sitting at 94.2 mph on his fastball. That's exactly in line with his 94.1 mph career average. He's also throwing his pitches in similar amounts in comparison to a season ago. Relying on his fastball just over one-third of the time, his curveball makes up nearly another third of his offerings. What is happening though, is that opposing batters are clearly having a tougher time with the pitches being sent their way.
     
    In 2018, Berrios has upped his chase rate to 35.8% as opposed to just 30.5% a year ago. He's generating a career best 10.6% swinging strike rate, and the 78.6% contact rate is also a career mark. Owning the strike zone is also something Berrios seems to have focused on. His 66.7% first strike mark is nearly 10% better than his career norms, and it jumps over 6% from the 2017 output. When he's at his best, Berrios is filling up the zone and making quick work of opposing lineups. It's when he slogs through outings that there seems to be more opportunity for the opposing offense.
     
    Right now, through a three game sample size, it's as simple as Berrios being locked in. His 24/1 K/BB is dazzling for a guy who's posted 5.4 BB/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in his first two big league seasons. If homer runs and free passes have been the straw to break his back across previous starts, he's simply eliminated those detractors for the time being.
     
    Now, over the course of what will hopefully be a 200 inning season, expecting Berrios to carry the 24.0 K/BB ratio, or the 0.629 WHIP is a fool's errand. What's not out of the realm of possibility however, is that he repeats a consistent process that yields opportunity for current results. There isn't a pitch the Twins hurler throws that doesn't have significant movement. Making sure to appropriately line up even his fastballs so that they catch or entice the zone remains a must. The more Paul Molitor and Garvin Alston can get Berrios to work with high strike percentages, the better.
     
    At the end of the day, 2018 was going to be an interesting season for Berrios after coming off a 3.89 ERA and 3.84 FIP during 2017. Even substantiating those numbers would make him a key cog for the Twins in the years to come. Pushing towards the dominating strikeout machine he's trended towards to open 2018 would absolutely push him into a conversation for the next tier.
     
    Whether or not batters continue to make less contact, chase often, or whiff more against Berrios remains to be seen. Keeping the ball in the yard and forcing the batter to work will forever be the key areas of focus, and right now, it looks like he's dialed in.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Ted Schwerzler
    Over the offseason and into spring training, plenty of discussions were had with Max Kepler in regards to his approach. Media covering the Twins probed, and I'd imagine that hitting coach James Rowson continued to challenge the young German. After failing to take a big step forward in 2017, it continues to seem like there's so much more potential left in there. Through the early part of 2018 however, it seems that Kepler has made a few tweaks, and given his comments, they may come as somewhat of a surprise.
     
    When talking with Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press back in March, Kepler said "I'm not going to be swinging up and doing all that." He not that "it's not about launch angle" for him, and that his goal is to get his "bat head in the zone as early as possible." There's nothing wrong with any of those comments, but in recent years, we've seen the data suggest that the best avenue for success when putting the ball in play is by doing so in the air.
     
    The reality at the big league level, is that ground balls simply don't equate to consistently high-yielding results. Major league players are more than capable of handling routine plays on the ground, and most are just fine turning even the spectacular opportunity into an out. Whether lifting the ball for liners in the gaps, or sending it flying for home runs over the fence, success in the game today comes through the air.
     
    Despite Kepler's comments suggesting he isn't ready to adopt that principle, the results suggest that he may have seen the fruits the process is able to bear. After owning a 12.7 degree launch angle on average in 2017, he's boosted that to a 14.2 degree mark this season. In doing so, he's also seen his fly ball percentage go from 39.5% in 2017, to a whopping 53.6% this season. While getting the ball in the air, he currently has (an unsustainable, but notable anyways) a 20% HR/FB rate in comparison to just an 11.5% mark from a season ago.
     
    Obviously getting the ball in the air also requires you to make strong contact. In that department as well, Kepler has upped the ante. He's generating a career best 42.9% hard hit rate, and pitch recognition seems to be something he's a bit more honed in on as well. With a career 29.5% chase rate, and a 28.5% mark from 2017, he's toting just a 25.6% chase rate thus far in the current campaign.
     
    For a guy like Kepler, being able to generate enough power for extra base hits will be key to taking the next step forward. While he does have plenty of speed at his disposal (he did have 13 triples in 2015 at Double-A), being considered a true threat as a corner outfielder relies upon some thump rearing its head. What's encouraging is that Kepler's frame has always suggested that it will come, and the output has displayed a reality that it may just be a small tweak here or there from sticking for good.
     
    Right now, it's plenty early to be drawing any season-long conclusions, but you absolutely have to be impressed with the results. If Kepler was consulted right now, I'm not sure that he'd agree in his approach being changed at all. It's also not particularly fair to attribute his early success solely to the lift he's applied to the baseball. However, if he's being fair, there's little to detract from the results at this point, and we have a measurable process to point towards.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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