Ted Schwerzler

I focused up the middle here, but it is important to note that Miguel Sano has done his part as well. He's posted a 1 DRS which ranks tied 14th across 34 third basemen with at least 300 innings this year. It's his first time being positive over this many innings in his career. Marwin Gonzalez has provided the Twins some great versatility, but over the course of his career the metrics suggest he's above average only in the OF. Sano holding down third for now is certainly a boost.

We’re halfway through the 2019 Major League Baseball season and the Minnesota Twins have been one of the best teams in baseball. En route to leading the AL Central division we’ve talked plenty about offensive performers and pitching prowess, but the defensive talent has fallen by the wayside. For a team centered heavily around analytics, it’s been that side of the ball that has seen a massive boost as well.Across all of baseball the Twins own the fourth best defensive fWAR and trail only the Kansas City Royals in the American League. Rocco Baldelli’s club shifts among the most often across the sport and they’re 7th in shift runs saved. Defensive runs saved puts the Twins 4th and has them behind only the Houston Astros in the American League. In terms of UZR, which stands for Ultimate Zone Rating and assigns a run value to defense, Minnesota checks in 2nd behind only the Royals. At +19.7 UZR the team as a whole is playing what quantifies as Gold Glove Caliber defense. Last season Minnesota posted the 15th best defensive totals in terms of fWAR across baseball. Given the meteoric rise in positioning it’s not a significant surprise to see the team playing much better baseball. Pairing the defensive improvements with a potent lineup and capable pitching is a trio of ideal events. What’s worth wondering is where this is all coming from. In my estimation it’s three key areas. You’ll often hear that baseball’s most important positions are up the middle. Catcher, middle infield, and shortstop are some of the most athletic players on the diamond and their impact can be felt far greater than those on the corners. A season ago Minnesota employed a net negative in that line and it’s fairly obvious that the improvement there is where we should start. A season ago Mitch Garver got his first taste as a regular in the big leagues. He has always been a bat first catcher and during his big league debut he looked like a bat only backstop. Posting a -16 DRS while being a visible hinderance behind the dish an offseason improvement was necessary. Working with Tanner Swanson and putting in significant time on his own, the improvement is of massive proportions. Download attachment: Capture.PNG Statcast recently began tracking catcher framing metrics and Garver’s growth has been incredible. He’s generating over 5% more strikes this season and has developed an ability to grab low strikes. A 20% increase in strike rate at the bottom of the zone is reflective of a new receiving technique as well as improved strength. He’s always been strong on the edges, but it’s the bottom of the zone where good pitches went to die. Now through roughly half the sample of 2018, Garver has been worth 2 DRS this season. On top of being one of the best hitters at the position, he’s made a case to be included in the conversation as one of the best backstops in the game. Moving into the infield we stop at shortstop with Jorge Polanco. Another guy who got to the big leagues through his bat, and profiles better at second base, has made a substantial turnaround. Since 2016 Polanco has been worth -8, -1, and -1 DRS on a yearly basis. Now having played in as many innings as a season ago, he’s been worth +7 DRS at SS in 2019. Although his range is still somewhat limited he’s improved the total output moving his UZR from -3.9 last year to just -0.8 this season. Working with third base coach Tony Diaz, Polanco has adopted a new arm slot improving his throwing mechanics and increasing the level of comfort. Arm strength has always been a question for him at short, but as he’s worked in a new feel across the diamond the uptick in ability has been beyond noticeable. Cody Recently dove more into Polanco specifically, and I urge you to give it a read here. I don’t expect Jorge Polanco to win a Gold Glove any time soon, if ever for that matter, but his 7 DRS mark is the best across American Leaguers at the position and his bat certainly plays. If Brian Dozier can do it, I suppose anyone can. Finally the middle of the outfield. Last season the Twins got less than 30 games from Byron Buxton. When healthy there’s arguably no better outfield defender across the sport. His speed allows him to track down fly balls no one else has a shot at, and the arm strength can nab a runner anywhere on the diamond. Taking him away as often as he was last year put extra strain on everyone else in the position group. Coincidentally, it may have elevated the ability of traditional right fielder Max Kepler Kepler has always been a positive defender and put up some great numbers in right. Last season was his best defensively posting 10 DRS split between center and right. Those numbers were accumulated across 1,200+ innings and in 2019 Kepler has already tallied 10 DRS in just 689 innings. Stepping in for Buxton occasionally he’s been great in center while still playing a very strong right. Download attachment: Untitled.png The Outs Above Average leaderboard has always touted Byron near the top, and this season is no different. Moving down a bit from him though, Kepler finds himself tied for 7th with five outs above average this season. He’s got an actual catch percentage of 90% and while the speed isn’t where Buxton’s is, Kepler uses some of the best route running in baseball to track down balls otherwise out of his grasp. Target Field’s deep alleys provide optimal opportunity for direct routes offering a significant benefit. Given the relative health of Buxton this season, Minnesota employs two Gold Glove caliber outfielders and has two of the three highest DRS tallies among American League outfielders. With Buxton shelved and rotational players picking up the slack a season ago, it’s no surprise that this change is incredibly beneficial with the sport going flyball heavy. It’s a great thing that the Twins are pitching and hitting well this season. Any time those areas are of significant benefit they’ll get plenty of publicity. Defense isn’t sexy, but it’s every bit as important and integral in the strong start Minnesota has ran out to. This isn’t an accident, and the Twins have put in a tremendous amount of work to get the most out of their players. Marrying analytical information and advancements with the buy in and ability of the players on the field has resulted in one of the most complete teams Twins Territory may have ever seen. Offense and pitching can slump, but defensive ability never should. Click here to view the article

The longball was on display in wins for the Twins affiliates today while Edwar Colina turned in another impressive performance on the bump down in Fort Myers. With a few teams having the day off action could've been sparse, but that certainly wasn't the case thanks to some stand out performances.RED WINGS REPORT All-Star Break BLUE WAHOOS BITES Schedule Day Off MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 7, Daytona 6 (12 innings) Box Score Edwar Colina started this marathon for the Miracle and was nothing short of lights out. He picked up eight punchies en route to seven shutout innings. Giving up only three hits and walking none, it was a low-stress outing for most of the day. Royce Lewis has looked great in his brief return from the Futures Game and that was no different today. He got this one started stealing second, his 14th of the year, and an errant throw allowed him to come around and score. In the fifth Lewis blasted his eighth dinger on the season, and second in as many days. Trey Cabbage doubled in the eighth to put Fort Myers ahead 5-1. In the top of the ninth the wheels began to fall off. Daytona pushed across four runs of their own to force extras. Each team scored a run in the 10th inning, and it wasn’t until the bottom of the 12th inning that Cabbage plated the winning run. A groundout turned into an error and Gabriel Maciel raced across the plate to secure the victory. KERNELS NUGGETS Great Lakes 6, Cedar Rapids 2 Box Score Tyler Palm took the ball for the Kernels in this one and he left with the home team in a good spot. Twirling six innings of three-run ball (two earned), he struck out six allowing only three free passes. Cedar Rapids jumped out to an early lead on a first inning triple from Gilberto Celestino. Trevor Casanova doubled the tally crushing his second dinger of the season. Unfortunately that's where the runs stopped for the Kernels. The Loons added runs in three separate frames to wipe away the deficit and take this one. Having ridden an eight-game winning streak, Cedar Rapids will look to get back in the win column tomorrow night when these two do battle again. E-TWINS E-NOTES Elizabethton 8, Burlington 5 Box Score Tyler Benninghoff was the tasked starter for the E-Twins tonight and he was searching for his first win of the season. Throwing five innings of two-run baseball, he accomplished that thanks to a nice offensive output from the hometown lineup. After getting behind 1-0 in the top of the first Elizabethton evened the score and then some in the bottom half. Albee Weiss cracked a grand slam and then Max Smith drove in Seth Gray to put five on the board. Weiss homered again in the bottom of the second, his sixth of the season, and the E-Twins had a nice five-run cushion. Yeremi De La Cruz doubled in Will Holland in the third, and Smith put up another RBI in the fifth. Birmingham made this one interesting however. Trailing 8-2 after Smith's second RBI of the game, the Royals added runs in the sixth and seventh innings to draw within three. That was where the rally would end as Dylan Thomas slammed the door for a six out save. GCL TWINS TAKES GCL Orioles 4, GCL Twins 3 Box Score Dakota Chalmers was on the bump for his second action of the season since returning from Tommy John surgery. He turned in three scoreless innings allowing just a single hit. The former Athletics prospect picked up six strikeouts and allowed three walks. The Twins got out ahead scoring all three of their runs before the Orioles could push anything across. Bryson Gandy doubled in his first pro RBI, then was at the plate for a balk-induced run before another single drove in his second of the game. In the eighth inning the wheels fell off for the away team. The Twins gave up three to part with the lead and then allowed a fielder’s choice to walk it off in the ninth. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Edwar Colina (Fort Myers) 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K Hitter of the Day – Albee Weiss (Elizabethton) 2-4, 2 HR(1 GS), 2 R, 5 RBI PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Royce Lewis (Fort Myers) – 2-5, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB, HR(8) #2 - Alex Kirilloff (Pensacola) – No Game #3 - Brusdar Graterol (Pensacola) - Injured List (shoulder) #4 - Trevor Larnach (Fort Myers) - 3-4, R, BB, 2B #5 - Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, K #6 - Jordan Balazovic (Fort Myers) – Did Not Pitch #7 - Keoni Cavaco (GCL) – Did Not Play #8 - Brent Rooker (Rochester) - All-Star Break #9 - Jhoan Duran (Fort Myers) – Did Not Pitch #10 - Blayne Enlow (Fort Myers) – Did Not Pitch #11 - Lewis Thorpe (Rochester) - All-Star Break #12 - Nick Gordon (Rochester) - All-Star Break #13 - Ryan Jeffers (Fort Myers) – Did Not Play #14 - Luis Arraez (Minnesota) - All-Star Break #15 - Matt Wallner (Elizabethton) - 1-4, K #16 - Ben Rortvedt (Pensacola) – No Game #17 - Akil Baddoo (Fort Myers) - Injured List (Tommy John surgery) #18 - Jorge Alcala (Pensacola) – No Game #19 - Misael Urbina (DSL) – 0-3, R, RBI, 2 BB #20 - Travis Blankenhorn (Pensacola) – No Game THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Lehigh Valley @ Rochester (4:35PM CST) – TBD/TBD (Doubleheader) Montgomery @ Pensacola (6:35PM EST) – LHP Bryan Sammons (2-1, 4.86 ERA) Daytona @ Fort Myers (6:00PM CST) – RHP Blayne Enlow (2-2, 1.95 ERA) Great Lakes @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) - RHP Luis Rijo (2-5, 2.33 ERA) Burlington @ Elizabethton (5:30PM CST) – RHP Ben Gross (2-0, 2.81 ERA) GCL Orioles @ GCL Twins (11:00AM CST) - TBD Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Wednesday’s games! 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At the All-Star break Rocco Baldelli’s Minnesota Twins currently own the third best record in the American League. They have a 5.5 game lead on the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central division, and the +113-run differential is second-most in all of baseball. This team is good, but they have areas needing improvement and just a couple of weeks to execute that improvement. You’ve read plenty of names by this point, but what does the actual blueprint look like?Minnesota has been linked to players like Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner. The Twins have ties to any number of relievers, and you can bet the front office has no desire to leave any stone unturned. We’re soon getting to decision time though, and what they acquire will matter almost as much as who they acquire. Needs The bare minimum here is two relief pitchers. Taylor Rogers has been nothing short of exceptional this season, but he needs to continue with an ability to operate as a hybrid pitcher. Keeping him solely locked into the ninth inning or late inning work isn’t necessarily ideal. He benefits Baldelli most by working as the fireman, and being able to work multiple innings is a massive boost. Ideally one of the arms acquired should be a southpaw and finding an impending free agent over 30 years-old with an ERA right around the mid-3.00 range shouldn’t be a difficult task. Realistically hat type of get isn’t going to cost any significant prospect and the boost could be substantial. On top of relief help a starter would be a definite bonus. Minnesota has just Jose Berrios and Martin Perez locked down for the rotation in 2020, and a controllable asset there makes a ton of sense. Giving up prospects for relief help is never an enticing plan of action but tying in a controllable starter would help to lessen that blow. When the deadline comes and goes on July 31st success should be measured for Minnesota numerically. At least two relief arms would represent a job well done, and an additional starter could tip things over the top. Process Derek Falvey is going to need prospect capital in order to make any move. I’d imagine, and probably suggest, that both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff be non-starters in almost any package. From there though the Twins will have significant depth at their disposal. Finding a way to both utilize and conserve talent at the same time would provide an optimal crossroads. Opposing organizations are likely going to want trades completed for one big-league asset at a time. If I’m Minnesota however, pairing the starter with a reliever is a way to mitigate risk. Working to pass on parting with real prospects for a rental or relief arm, adding in controllable starting talent opens the door to more coveted names. There’s a handful of selling teams that have assets in both areas Rocco Baldelli’s club currently needs to upgrade. There should be no reason that any deal with those clubs doesn’t go down the path of two players at once when discussions start. Settling on one at a time is fine but look to pair a maximized return with a protected parting. Redundancy It’s true that there’re specific areas on the farm that you’ll never have too many prospects. Up the middle and on the mound, teams will forever find a way to utilize talent. For the Twins, in their current situation, one of the best ways may be in using said players as trade chips. Falvey has a system chock full of middle infield prospects and corner outfielders. Although there’s not a significant number of upper-tier arms, there are a select few that have significant upside. Most of this talent is still at or below Double-A which makes the future risk carry a hefty amount of uncertainty. Using a trade partner to thin out some of that talent and turn it into big league commodities is hardly a bad blueprint. This offseason the Twins will also be up against a 40-man roster crunch that will put some bigger names in a position where they could be exposed. Utilizing them now in a way that draws a return is a significantly better decision than seeing them lost in the Rule 5 Draft. At its core the trade deadline should be a ton of fun for fans of the Minnesota Twins. This team is in position to be a legitimate player for the first time in nearly a decade. Good at the big-league level and on the farm, there’s opportunity to make some serious noise. The goal should be to acquire at least two assets, attempt to engage big with one partner, and work through some of your similar assets. How it all shakes out remains to be seen, but we’ll have answers soon enough. Click here to view the article

Stolen bases have declined for quite some time. The true value of advancing a single base has never been lower, and it's why (in general) bunting is dumb. Unless you're stealing bases at an 80% clip or better, the result is a net loss.

His bat has certainly been incredible, but given the overall production of the lineup, I felt like Adrianza as a fill in is less of a dropoff than needing to turn to Cave or someone like that in the OF

I didn't mean to come across as believing we're getting the 100th percentile of Buxton. I think he's been the most valuable to the Twins in the first half, but have suggested the exact combo you mentioned multiple times on Twitter. Byron at his best is a .260-.270 hitter with 20 bombs I think. That's incredible given his defensive abilities as well.

As the door closes on the first half of the 2019 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins sit in sole possession of first place in the AL Central Division. They have a 5.5 game lead over the favorited Cleveland Indians and find themselves with Postseason odds north of 96%. This drastic turnaround is because of the work both Rocco Baldelli and the front office has put in, but one player on the field has made an incredible impact as well. After being cast aside by plenty of Twins fans due to failed expectations thus far in his career Byron Buxton has emerged as a national presence. Losing virtually all of 2018 due to injury, Buxton returned this year with plenty to prove. Still just 25 years-old it was undoubtedly weighing on him to make this the breakout campaign. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes provided some great insight into Buck’s offseason and it appeared those words had some serious weight behind them. To this point Buxton has played in 73 of the Twins 89 games. He has missed some time needing an IL stint, but his 2.5 fWAR ranks third among hitters on the club. In over 235 at bats he has an .816 OPS, will hit double-digit homers, and is on pace to set career highs virtually across the board. Offensively Buxton has arrived. Likely never projecting as an average hitter, inching closer to .270 with sneaky power is where he’ll ultimately settle in. Combining that with his defensive profile makes him an irreplaceable asset. It’s because of that combination that naming anyone else the Twins first half MVP seems like a misstep. Buxton has been worth 10 DRS this year (2nd in the American League) and trails only Victor Robles and Kevin Kiermaier in Outs Above Average (10). He’s made more five-star outs than anyone in baseball and it’s visually obvious how impactful he is patrolling centerfield. Even if Baldelli had better options to run out while Buxton was shelved, the ripple effect was always going to be felt. Max Kepler is in the midst of a breakout season as well, and defensively he’s been an incredible asset. Moving him to centerfield worked out wonderfully during Byron’s absence but you cannot simply replace someone as valuable as the Georgia native is. Right now, the Twins have multiple All Stars, a pitching staff among the best in baseball, and a lineup that’s providing thump at an otherwise unseen pace. Despite all of that, it’s the 9-hole hitter that makes his presence felt most with his glove, who’s consistently provided a level of value propelling the Twins to their current standing. We’ve waited nearly five years for this to all come together and seeing Byron do it on a team that’s now so good has been enjoyable to say the least. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins affiliates had a busy day on the farm. Multiple clubs had doubleheaders and virtually every team was involved in a handful of roster moves. Lewis Thorpe spun a gem and Brent Rooker continued to stay hot. Read about all of the action below.TRANSACTIONS Rochester Red Wings RHP Kohl Stewart recalled by Minnesota RHP D.J. Baxendale reinstated from IL Pensacola Blue Wahoos IF Michael Davis transferred to Fort Myers LHP Jovani Moran transferred to GCL Twins on MiLB rehab LHP Bryan Sammons activated from IL RHP Alex Phillips promoted from Fort Myers Fort Myers Miracle IF Royce Lewis placed on temporary inactive list (Futures Game) RHP Ricky Ramirez reinstated from IL Cedar Rapids Kernels C Ben Rodriguez placed on 7 day IL RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 4, Scranton/WB 2 (Game 1, 7 innings) Box Score Lewis Thorpe returned to the bump for Rochester after making his big league debut. The Aussie was dominant in six innings of work striking out eight, issuing no free passes, and giving up just two earned runs. Ryan Eades pitched a scoreless 7th, striking out two, to record his second save of the season. Brent Rooker has been on fire this season in Rochester and that didn’t change in this one. A first inning double plated Jake Cave and the Wings were on the board. He doubled again in the third to score Ronald Torreyes and double the lead. Hits from Jaylin Davis and Cave pushed Rochester’s tally to four by the sixth inning. Two runs from the home team didn’t factor into the decision. Scranton/WB 7, Rochester 6 (Game 2, 8 innings) Box Score Game two of the doubleheader saw Cody Stashak step in as Kohl Stewart was recalled by the big league club. He turned in three innings of strong work allowing just a single unearned run and fanning five. Ian Krol was blitzed for six runs (five earned) in his one inning of work eventually spelling the Wings demise. Ronald Torreyes put his stamp on this one early with a second inning RBI single. He’d put Rochester ahead again with another RBI in the seventh. Leading by a run needing just three outs Rochester allowed the Railriders to force extras. Jaylin Davis parked his seventh homer of the year and Nick Gordon drove in a run giving the away squad a two-run cushion looking to close it out. A blowup inning saw four Railrider runs score and the Red Wings found themselves on the wrong side of a walk-off. BLUE WAHOO BITES Birmingham 7, Pensacola 3 Box Score Bryan Sammons was the Wahoos starter in this one and needing 72 pitches coming up one out shy of five complete, he was chased after allowing three runs. Pensacola started the scoring in the fourth inning on Alex Kirilloff’s first homer since June 20th. His third blast of the season was followed by Mark Contreras’ fifth to give the Wahoos a 3-0 lead. From there it was all Barons. Runs in each of the next three half-innings put the home team up by a 7-3 tally, which is where this one ended. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 4, Palm Beach 0 (Game 1, 7 innings) Box Score Another doubleheader for the Miracle began on the right foot. Blayne Enlow took the hill but lasted just one inning after being hit by a comebacker. Joe Record stepped in and twirled three innings of shutout ball while notching four strikeouts. Jose Miranda put Fort Myers ahead early after reaching on a throwing error allowing Ryan Jeffers to touch home plate. A second miscue, this time a wild pitch, gave Michael Davis the opening to score. In the fifth Trey Cabbage drove in Miranda on a single and Michael Helman pushed Cabbage across. Fort Myers 7, Palm Beach 3 (Game 2, 7 innings) Box Score Melvi Acosta was the Miracle starter in game two and he gave the home team one out into the sixth inning en route to his fifth win on the season. Allowing just two runs, he struck out five and lowered his ERA to 2.93 on the year. Fort Myers used a six-run second inning to leap out front and put it on cruise control. An Andrew Bechtold double was followed by a Trey Cabbage triple to score the first two. Michael Helman and Gabriel Maciel then plated one each with Jose Miranda driving in two on a single and a throwing error. Miranda then struck again in the sixth to afford the Miracle their seventh run. Entering into a long homestand, the doubleheader sweep was a nice foot for Fort Myers to jump out on. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 3, Burlington 2 Box Score Josh Winder made the start for Cedar Rapids and he turned in yet another gem. The 2018 draft pick lasted seven innings and gave up just one run while striking out eight and walking none. He didn’t pick up the win but drops his ERA to 2.32 on the season. The Kernels were behind after a Bees third inning run, but Jared Akins delivered a sac fly in the fourth to knot things up. Facing a one run deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning Tyler Webb notched his first double of the season to walk off Burlington. E-TWINS E-NOTES E-Twins 7, Kingsport 1 Box Score Andriu Marin began this one on the bump for the Twins and he fanned six over four scoreless innings. Denny Bentley got the win in relief allowing just one run (unearned). Elizabethton got out ahead early and stretched their lead late. Anthony Prato started the scoring with an RBI single, and Seth Gray ripped his second dinger (a two-run shot) to make it a three-run third inning. Max Smith tacked on a run with a sac fly in the sixth, and three more were added in the eighth on a double and wild pitch. GCL TWINS TAKES Today’s game against the GCL Red Sox was suspended in the bottom of the 8th inning. The Twins had just tied it up, and have runners on the corners with two outs. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day - Lewis Thorpe (Rochester) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Brent Rooker (Rochester) – 2-7, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Royce Lewis (Ft. Myers) – Inactive (Futures Game) #2 - Alex Kirilloff (Pensacola) – 1-4, HR(3), R, RBI, 2 K #3 - Brusdar Graterol (Pensacola) - Injured List (shoulder) #4 - Trevor Larnach (Ft. Myers) – Did Not Play #5 - Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) – Did Not Play #6 - Jordan Balazovic (Ft. Myers) –Did Not Pitch #7 - Keoni Cavaco (GCL Twins) – Game Suspended #8 - Brent Rooker (Rochester) – 2-7, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K #9 - Jhoan Duran (Ft. Myers) – Did Not Pitch #10 - Blayne Enlow (Ft. Myers) – 1.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K #11 - Lewis Thorpe (Rochester) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K #12 - Nick Gordon (Rochester) – 2-6, 2B, R, RBI, 3 BB #13 - Ryan Jeffers (Ft. Myers) – 1-3, R, BB #14 - Luis Arraez (Minnesota) - Pending #15 - Matt Wallner (Elizabethton) – 1-1, 2B, R, BB #16 - Ben Rortvedt (Pensacola) – 0-3, R, K #17 - Akil Baddoo (Ft. Myers) - Injured (Tommy John) #18 - Jorge Alcala (Pensacola) - Did Not Pitch #19 - Misael Urbina (DSL Twins) – 1-5, 2B, RBI #20 - Travis Blankenhorn (Pensacola) - 1-4 SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester @ Scranton/Wilkes Barre (5:35PM CST) - TBD Pensacola @ Birmingham (6:30PM CST) – RHP Randy Dobnak (4-0, 2.54 ERA) Palm Beach @ Ft. Myers (5:00PM CST) - LHP Tyler Watson (1-4, 4.56 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Burlington (6:35PM CST) – RHP Andrew Cabezas (2-5, 4.04 ERA) Kingsport @ Elizabethton (5:30 CST) - RHP Ryan Shreve (0-1, 3.86 ERA) GCL Twins @ GCL Red Sox (9:00AM CST) - TBD Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the Friday games or any other minor league topics you would like. Click here to view the article

As we put a ribbon on the first half of the 2019 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins are in first place of the AL Central Division standings. One of the most prolific lineups in baseball, this team has done significant damage to the opposition. With eyes set on the postseason it’s worth wondering what the uncharted history ahead can glean from what has gone before.By the end of the All-Star break Minnesota will have all eyes focused on what reinforcements can be brought in to help the big league club. Derek Falvey faces just one trade deadline this season, July 31. All goals from here on out will be related to improving the length of time spent playing October baseball. Although the Twins did grab a one-game cup of coffee two seasons ago, this level of expectation is largely unprecedented for the current collective. When it comes to those big games in October there have been to consistent story lines drawing repeated dialogue in 2019. How will the Twins handle the Yankees and is Madison Bumgarner the guy for the Minnesota? The former is a question rooted in a deep spell of futility. New York has had the number of this organization for years. During the Ron Gardenhire run of division titles there was no ability to get beyond The Evil Empire. New York had their way with Minnesota and the 2-12 record says as much. There’s no way to paint a pretty picture on those results, but it’s hardly relevant today. For the 2017 Wild Card game only five of the starting players still remain in a Minnesota uniform. Pitching in relief of starter Ervin Santana that game were names like Hildenberger, Busenitz and Belisle. As the new regime has transformed the roster, and in 2018 purged ineffectiveness, this current crop of Twins likely could care less how the “last time” played out. Right now the New York Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball and that is an accurate reflection of how they’ve played this season. If and when Minnesota sees them in the opposite dugout during the postseason it will be a dogfight because of that reality as opposed to any hardship the local franchise has previously experienced. On the opposite end of this same discussion Minnesota could use pitching help. While it’s the bullpen that’s a focus, a starting arm slotting in behind Jose Berrios would be welcomed. Madison Bumgarner will be available and his name carries significant weight but will the opposition truly worry about a guy because of his track record in 2014? When talking up the Giants starter you often hear of his World Series and postseason dominance. Those exploits are nearly a decade old, his last go-round in 2016 was hardly as effective, and he’s dealt with major injury and declining effectiveness since that point. Past experience will certainly afford the thought of Bumgarner in a Twins uniform a calming aura, but it’s hardly relevant and intellectually dishonest to suggest that his previous World Series experiences trump the pitcher he is today. His ERA is in the land of mediocrity, and similar WHIP, H/9, and FIP numbers back that. He’ll leave the easiest park to pitch in, but bring a heightened velocity and strikeout rate. At the end of the day the Twins will need to ask themselves if the juice is worth the squeeze. Bumgarner is not the same pitcher that twirled innings during the 2014 World Series. He’s a serviceable veteran that could be had to improve the overall strength down the stretch. Going all in on a move with the Giants hoping that the previous postseason success plays a trump card is quite the foolhardy gamble. Following the well-deserved All-Star rest Rocco Baldelli will have a refocused Twins team keyed in on making waves when it matters most. The front office will work to bring in reinforcements that can help put this club in a better position. When the dust settles and October begins, you can bet that this team isn’t going to be worried about the failures of yesteryear, and they shouldn’t be holding out hope to capture performances based on history either. Click here to view the article

As the Minnesota Twins continue to build on their run to the postseason a bugaboo on the roster continues to be the relief corps. Although the group has held its own, there’s no denying an upgrade or two will be necessary for legitimacy in October. Wrapping up the series searching for relievers, we’ll go back to the well and look at a familiar face.Francisco Liriano, LHP, 35 years-old Pittsburgh Pirates, NL Central (40-43) Free Agent in 2020 What’s To Like For 13 years Liriano worked as a major league starter. This was the guy who popped up for the Minnesota Twins as a 21 year-old in 2005, and became an All-Star during his rookie campaign in 2006. Looking incredible that season the Twins seemed to have a partner able to pair with Johan Santana in an annual chase for Cy Young awards. Then he blew out his elbow. Fast forward through roughly a decade of good-but-not-great years and the Pirates now employ Liriano solely as a reliever for the first time in his career. Through 40.0 innings pitched this season for the Buccos, Liriano owns a dazzling 2.70 ERA. His 8.8 K/9 is a high water mark over the past three years and his surface numbers are better across the board. Statcast data doesn’t track back to Liriano’s debut but his velocity hit its peak at 94.5 mph during 2010. Since 2011 he’s lived between 92-93 mph and is still there today, so that consistency is a good thing. Suggesting he was an average starter is about as definitive as it gets when looking at Liriano’s ERA+. The park adjusted metric has him at 98 from 2005-2018. Working solely as a reliever this season, that metric is all the way up to 163. Given that 100 represents league average, all parties involved have to be optimistic with the output. Concerns Do some digging under the hood on Liriano and things can get dicey pretty quick. FIP is far from an analytically advanced metric, his 4.06 mark suggests a significant amount of regression could be coming. His xFIP mark, which is a more nuanced expected fielder independent pitching tally, is even worse at 5.05. It’s one thing for those numbers to be slightly above his ERA, but we’re dealing with very wide gaps here. Of 174 qualified relievers Liriano’s .259 BABIP checks in 54th. Registering in the bottom third, inching up closer towards the mean is a definite possibility. He’s also generating infield fly balls 17% of the time, which checks in 25th out of the same group. Although his pitches aren’t being walloped (just a 30% hard hit rate), there’s more than enough wiggle room for batted ball events to turn less than ideal. There’s no denying that the plate discipline profile works in his favor. Whiff rates are up, so to are chase rates, and contact rates are down. That’s a trifecta of goodness but can be adjusted to. Liriano has never thrown more changeups than he is right now, and relying on offspeed as he must, leaves less room for error. At the end of his career, this is a remade starter that’s carved out a solid showing working in a glorified long man role. High leverage innings have resulted in the highest (.688) OPS against, while late and close scenarios have produced a .729 OPS against. A fine year for him to wind down on, the upside for Minnesota doesn’t look to be worth the squeeze. See Also Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Reds Jake Diekman, LHP, Royals Ian Kennedy, RHP, Royals Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

Perez has a team option at $7.5MM, which even at the lesser version of himself, is great value. I'd extend Odo and think about offering Gibson. Pineda moves on.

Needing a starting pitcher, the Minnesota Twins front office send minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Palacios had some hype but was never a top prospect, while Odorizzi had been largely mediocre and was set to turn 28. It’s hard not to see more upside in a big-league starter under team control, but this leap forward has been immense for the former Tampa starter. Odorizzi was often chided for his efforts by Twins fans last season. He posted a 4.49 ERA backed by a 4.20 FIP. The 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were right in line with career norms. On a bad team he was hardly a large issue and generally pitched better than the surface level numbers suggested. In 2019 he’s gone gangbusters though, and he’s made his first All Star game to show for it. Cooling off some over the last few weeks, Odorizzi still owns a 2.73 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 85.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP suggest a bit more regression could be coming, but there’s a visible change that’s been made by the pitcher Minnesota trots out as their number two starter. Having been a low 90’s guy his whole big-league career, Odorizzi has added two mph of velocity under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and is now averaging 93.1 mph on the pitch this season. Not only is he throwing harder, but Odorizzi has shifted his repertoire to flip a career high number of sinkers, taking away from both his cutter and splitter. This new version of Odorizzi is giving up a career high percentage of hard-hit balls, but he’s missing bats at record marks as well. The 12.4% whiff rate is a new high-water mark, while his contact rate is down to just 74.3% and the zone contact rate stands under 80% (78.5%) for the first time in his career. A slight jump in hard hit rate could be explainable through the increased velocity, but even still with that development, missing more barrels is the key component here. Over the course of his career Odorizzi has averaged 1.2 HR/9 and has never been below the 1.0 mark. Through his first 16 starts he’s allowed just eight homers and is at 0.8 HR/9 on the season. Shedding hits and walks as well, the 1.074 WHIP stands out on its own. Having been integrated into the Twins system a year ago, and now working with a pitching thinktank that’s been overhauled, he’s reaping the rewards. Next season Odorizzi will find himself on the open market for the first time in his career. The Twins have a couple of holes in their rotation that they’ll need to commit arms to. We don’t yet know how the club will navigate the trade market but extending a guy they already have in house may certainly make some sense. Last season Jake Odorizzi was getting his feet wet with Minnesota and simply going through the motions he had always practiced to compete. This season he’s been given a few new tools that have taken his game to the next level and everyone involved has benefitted from it. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins own the best record in the American League and while they’ve been great in all phases of the game, it shouldn’t be overlooked how integral the replacements have been. Thankfully this club hasn’t seen a run of injuries, and outside of the outfield going down in tandem, a clean bill of health has generally been the case this season. When Rocco Baldelli has needed new faces to step up, he’s found willing and able contributors to the task.Willians Astudillo has been a fan favorite and although he’s produced a negative fWAR tally there’s value in what he’s brought to the table. His defensive flexibility is more happenstance than it is desired reality, and the approach offensively has gotten him in trouble, but Minnesota has been better off having him at their disposal. After a strong debut season Jake Cave hasn’t seen the same success in 2019, but he’s been a necessary body for the Twins weathering a depleted outfield. LaMonte Wade is now up and awaiting his chance, and if more things make it necessary, Brent Rooker could join the fray as well. Having hit for average across every level of the system, Luis Arraez is making his presence felt. He’s got 22 hits in 49 at bats and consistently puts together great plate appearances. With a similar profile to Astudillo it’s Arraez that takes it up a notch. He doesn’t swing and miss, he doesn’t chase, and the balls he does attack are ones that he can do something with. If there’s an area of depth that hasn’t been tested it’s on the pitching side. From a starting perspective Minnesota has a few options that have been easy to turn to. Zack Littell has thrown big league innings, as has Kohl Stewart. Devin Smeltzer earned a shot and held his own through a couple of turns as well. None of these guys look like front of the rotation arms, but they’ve all allowed the Twins to stay in games that required someone to step up. We’ve all but exhausted the bullpen possibilities, and that’s a direct reflection of players like Ian Kroll, Carlos Torres, and Cody Allen being brought into the fray. The front office obviously needs to make an impact move or two there, but the record has been compiled with players like Poppen, Eades, Morin and Duffey giving Wes Johnson serviceable innings. There’s a real need for the Twins to make some moves. The 40-man roster is going to get tight this offseason and needing to make decisions ahead of time is a real thing. For now, though, the Twins front office has seen minor league guys come up and contribute amidst the team's overall success. Although the injury need hasn’t been significant, the call has been answered when opportunity has presented itself. Click here to view the article

A handful of affiliates found themselves on the wrong side of the action tonight but the Rochester Red Wings had enough offense for all of them. Brent Rooker went yard in the 16-run affair, and neither potential callup (LaMonte Wade being the other) was pulled from the game. Cedar Rapids didn’t win, but that wasn’t because of Austin Schulfer. He turned in a great start and left them in a strong position upon leaving the mound.TRANSACTIONS Rochester Red Wings RHP Carlos Torres signed by Minnesota Twins assigned to AAA Cedar Rapids LHP Petru Balan placed on temporary inactive list RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 19, Lehigh Valley 6 Box Score Another night, another high scoring affair for the Red Wings. Rochester pounced with 16 runs on 16 hits and really turned this one into a laugher late. Recently signed Drew Hutchison got the start and he went five and two-thirds innings giving up five earned on six hits. That was good enough to leave in position for the win however. Seven of the nine Rochester batters recorded base hits in this one, and eight of them reached base. Six batters had multi-hit nights and most of the damage was done without leaving the yard. Brent Rooker and Zander Wiel both clubbed their 12th dingers of the season while Drew Maggi went yard for his seventh. In the 9th Jordanny Valdespin added his sixth, a three-run shot, for good measure. Jaylin Davis continues to be a man possessed at Triple-A, and a three-hit night has his OPS sitting at 1.124 through his first nine games. This was one of those evenings where everyone contributes and it felt like no one was capable of making an out. Too bad for the Piggies but great fun for Rochester. BLUE WAHOOS BITES Biloxi 7, Pensacola 4 Box Score Adalberto Mejia continued to work his rehab assignment and turned in two scoreless in this one. Randy Dobnak put in five innings for the Wahoos and gave up four runs on eight hits. Although the hit totals were nearly even Pensacola came up three runs short in this contest. Aaron Whitefield drove in the game’s first run in the second inning. Pensacola held the 1-0 lead until things were knotted up in the fifth. Then a three-run sixth inning had the home team looking for a rally. Caleb Hamilton drove in Alex Kirilloff to drop the deficit to two, and an eighth inning Mark Contreras double evened the score. It was a ninth inning offensive output that eventually spelt demise for Pensacola. A base hit and a double put the Shuckers ahead by three and no answer came in the bottom half. MIRACLE MATTERS Charlotte 3, Fort Myers 2 Box Score Two of the best teams in the Florida State League played a low scoring affair this morning in Charlotte. Edwar Colina got the start for the Miracle and came up just one out shy of making it through six innings. He gave up two runs, neither earned, and fanned five while walking three. Immediately after trailing for the first time in the game Fort Myers responded with two runs to knot it up. A Jose Miranda double and then a Michael Helman sac fly were what pushes base runners across the plate. The Stone Crabs were able to score the game winning run in the seventh and that spelled defeat for Fort Myers. Recently promoted Wander Franco had himself a nice game going 3-for-4 and driving in the early runs for the home team. KERNELS NUGGETS Wisconsin 4, Cedar Rapids 0 Box Score Austin Schulfer toed the rubber looking to secure a series victory in this one. Despite going six strong innings with six strikeouts and allowing just two runs (one earned), the bats never came alive and the Kernels fell 4-0. Gilberto Celestino was the only Cedar Rapids player to tally multiple hits, and teammates Jacob Pearson and Estamy Urena were the only other players to up their average. Tomorrow these two teams will square off for the rubber match. E-TWINS E-NOTES Bristol 11, Elizabethton 6 Box Score Ryley Widell began the game on the mound for the E-Twins but a tough outing had him chased before he was able to record three outs. Leaving the first down 4-0, and then heading into the third with a seven run deficit, Elizabethton found themselves behind the eight ball all night. In the middle innings the home team struck. Spencer Steer recorded his first professional double to drive in Willie Joe Garry during the third inning. In the fourth it was Alex Isola and Steer again plating another three runners. An Albee Weiss fifth inning jack job brought the deficit to just two, but that’s where the runs ended. Steer is certainly off to a great start in his professional career and the 4-for-5 evening should fuel him for the next few contests. GCL TWINS TAKES GCL Orioles 5, GCL Twins 0 Box Score Anthony Escobar made the start and worked three scoreless while striking out four and allowing just one hit. Tallying just four hits on the day however, a goose egg ended up being the final tally for the home team. 2019 first round draft pick Keoni Cavaco notched his second professional knock and is now 2-for-11 in his young career. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Austin Schulfer (Cedar Rapids) 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Hitter of the Day – Spencer Steer (Elizabethton) 4-5, 3 RBI, 2 2B PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Royce Lewis (Fort Myers) - 0-5, K #2 - Alex Kirilloff (Pensacola) – 1-3, 2 R, K #3 - Brusdar Graterol (Pensacola) - Injured list #4 - Trevor Larnach (Fort Myers) – 1-1 #5 - Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) – 0-2, BB #6 - Brent Rooker (Rochester) – 1-4, HR(12), 3 R, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K #7 - Jhoan Duran (Fort Myers) – Did not pitch #8 - Lewis Thorpe (Rochester) - Did not pitch #9 - Blayne Enlow (Fort Myers) - Did not pitch #10 - Akil Baddoo (Fort Myers) - Injured list (Tommy John surgery) #11 - Nick Gordon (Rochester) – Did not play #12 - Stephen Gonsalves (Rochester) - Injured list #13 - Ryan Jeffers (Fort Myers) – Did not play #14 - Ben Rortvedt (Pensacola) – 1-3, BB #15 - Yunior Severino (Cedar Rapids) - Injured list #16 - Gilberto Celestino (Cedar Rapids) – 2-3 #17 - Zack Littell (Minnesota) - Did not pitch #18 - LaMonte Wade Jr. (Rochester) – 0-4, R, RBI, BB, K #19 - Jorge Alcala (Pensacola) - Did not pitch #20 - Jose Miranda (Fort Myers) – 2-5, R, RBI, 2B THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester @ Lehigh Valley (6:05PM CST) – LHP Devin Smeltzer (0-2, 2.70 ERA) Biloxi @ Pensacola (6:35PM CST) – LHP Charlie Barnes (0-1, 4.18 ERA) Charlotte @ Fort Myers (6:00PM CST) - TBD Wisconsin @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) - TBD Bristol @ Elizabethton (5:30PM CST) – RHP Tyler Benninghoff (0-0, 13.50 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Wednesday’s games! 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In case you haven’t been paying attention the Minnesota Twins are the best team in the American League. They trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers' record across all of baseball, and they’ve run way out in front of the Cleveland Indians for the AL Central Division lead. While all of those things are factual, the club still has some glaring warts to be addressed. Fortunately for the front office, timing for all things going forward has never been better.Thus far Derek Falvey has cycled through more than a handful of minor league relief options while trying to sort out Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen. A few wild cards were drawn to start the year, and while some have stuck, others have flopped. The lineup is a monster from top to bottom, so it remains on the mound that this team can get better. With roughly a month to the trade deadline, not only is the belief that they will, but with no hesitations they absolutely should. Timing Coming into 2019 the AL Central was never going to be more winnable for the Twins than it is right now. Cleveland had clearly peaked, and without having an influx of talent, their only opportunity was to go backwards. Only the White Sox are trending toward a mature state in their rebuild, and even they are going to experience growing pains over the next year or so. Taking advantage of virtually a free pass to the postseason was an absolute must as the Twins' window opened. Performance As noted above, Baldelli’s lineup is arguably the best in baseball. Without being made up of names like Judge and Stanton, a collection of homegrown talent and scrap heap pickups have come together in an effort to pound a baseball more juiced than it has ever been. Wes Johnson and the Twins entire infrastructure on the pitching side of the game has allowed the staff to take steps forward, and though they may not receive the same praise, the group has certainly been among the game’s best. Deficiency Because of how good Minnesota has been there’s also not a significant amount of need to take the club to the next level. While the bullpen certainly needs to be addressed and the rotation could use a boost, we aren’t talking about an overhaul here. Minnesota’s active roster is legitimately a few players away from being a sustainable and serious threat in October. This isn’t the NBA where one guy can transform a team, but the Twins are so close that one or two additions can be what puts them over the top. Landscape Never in the history of major league baseball have fewer organizations been trying at any giving time. There’s a handful of clubs tanking in an effort to supplement their lagging systems and move out of the dreaded middle ground. Because of this reality it’s a wonderful time to be a buyer. Clubs are parting with big league assets and there are only so many places for those players to land. In a trade market that will be influenced by an earlier and single transaction date, competing offers aren’t solely in the form of dollars as is the case in the offseason. Capital If there’s one thing Minnesota fans consistently ride the organization for, it is its payroll. Without touching on that subject, the only other capital in the game is in the form of players. Given the front office’s decision to hold onto dollars this winter, and the impending 40-man crunch coming up, there’s an abundance of prospect capital to be doled out. Not only are the Twins loaded at the top with some of the game’s best prospects, but the system's depth is also impressive and backs their organizational prospect ranking. By no means should the suggestion be that Minnesota attempt to throw away their long-term window for one run at the World Series. That said the opportunity to make bold acquisitions that will impact this team and those of the future lies ahead. The cost will be substantial, but the reward is also tangible through these same means. I don’t know if Minnesota will ever be in position to sign a free agent like Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, but right now they’re certainly positioned to trade for one. As the organization bides its time and collects more depth in the form of big league vets such as Cody Allen and Carlos Torres, the time to pounce looms large. It’s a bonus if any of those guys work out to be serviceable arms down the stretch. In the month ahead engaging teams on the outs and swapping future assets for current ones is where Falvey finds himself, and given all of the factors, it should be the most comfortable storm he’s ever stood in. Click here to view the article