Hrbowski

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png #1 – Minnesota Twins – J.B. Bukauskas – North Carolina, rhp The talk for the number one pick has been centered around Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay, but with Bukauskas the Twins would get someone who has upside and could help the big league team soon. The Twins could also take Pavin Smith, Kyle Wright, or Austin Beck, but at this point they are lower down on draft boards. #2 – Cincinnati Reds – Brendan McKay – Louisville, lhp The Reds like Hunter Greene, but I think that in the end they will take a college pitcher. McKay and Kyle Wright would be the two best remaining with Bukauskas off the board. If the Twins took Greene or McKay the Reds could take Bukauskas. #3 – San Diego Padres – Hunter Greene – California High School, rhp The Padres really want to take Greene, and I think that they have a good shot at achieving that. If Greene is off the board the Padres would likely stick with a prep player, with Royce Lewis or MacKenzie Gore being the two most likely to be picked. #4 – Tampa Bay Rays – Austin Beck – North Carolina High School, of It is no secret that the Rays love Beck, but they also like a few college pitchers. Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo would be the two best available. #5 – Atlanta Braves – Royce Lewis – California High School, of The Braves have a track record of taking high school players, and if this scenario played out it could be either Lewis or Gore. #6 – Oakland Athletics – Pavin Smith – Virginia, 1b Pavin Smith is having an excellent spring, and the Athletics frequently take college players. If the A’s go with a pitcher I think that they will take Kyle Wright. #7 – Arizona Diamondbacks – MacKenzie Gore – North Carolina High School, lhp MacKenzie Gore could end up going much higher than this, but I don’t think he will fall any further than the Diamondbacks. #8 – Philadelphia Phillies – Adam Haseley – Virginia, of I think that the Phillies will take a gamble on this pick and hope for the next Andrew Benintendi. Haseley’s ceiling is not as high as Benintendi’s, but he could become a very good pick. #9 – Milwaukee Brewers – Jeren Kendall – Vanderbilt, of Kendall played high school baseball right in the backyard of the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Brewers have gone the outfield route in recent drafts. Kendall’s teammate Kyle Wright is a potential pick here as well. #10 – LA Angels – Kyle Wright – Vanderbilt, rhp Wright could go anywhere from #1 to #10, but I do not think that he will fall outside of the top ten picks. The Angels need to rebuild their farm system, and Wright would be the player who could help them the soonest. #11 – Chicago White Sox – Alex Faedo – Florida, rhp The White Sox have a history of taking college pitchers who fall. They missed out on A.J. Puk last year, but I think that they will land Puk’s former teammate in 2017. #12 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Keston Hiura – UC/Irvine, of The talk surrounding the Pirates has been mostly about college hitters, and if they think that Hiura can play in the field they could settle for him. #13 – Miami Marlins – D.L. Hall – Georgia High School, rhp The Marlins got the best high school player in the class last year, and I think that they would like another prep player this year. Hall fits the bill, and could be a fast mover for a high schooler. #14 – Kansas City Royals – Nick Pratto – California High School, 1b The speculation is that the Royals will take a high school player, and Pratto is the best available at this point. #15 – Houston Astros – Seth Romero – Houston, lhp Romero has had issues during his college career that hurt his draft status, but his hometown team might be willing to take a chance on him. #16 – New York Yankees – Tanner Houck – Missouri, rhp The Yankees will likely take somebody who has fallen in the draft, and Houck or LSU’s Alex Lange could be taken with this pick. #17 – Seattle Mariners – Jake Burger – Missouri State, 3b Jake Burger is behind only Pavin Smith as a hitter in this draft, but others such as Haseley and Kendall rank higher on boards because of their athleticism, which Burger lacks. Burger could become a steal. #18 – Detroit Tigers – Shane Baz – Texas High School, rhp The Tigers love hard throwing righties, and the best one who could be available when the Tigers pick is Shane Baz. #19 – San Francisco Giants – Alex Lange- LSU, rhp Lange has moved down boards this spring, but the Giants like taking college righties. #20 – New York Mets – Jordan Adell – Kentucky High School, of Adell is the most athletic player getting first round consideration, and he is unlikely to fall further than the Mets. This far away from the draft it is hard to peg picks past the top twenty, so at this point most of my mock picks below are just guesses. I do have an idea of who the Twins want at numbers 35 and 37, so I will give an explanation of both of those picks. #21 – Baltimore Orioles – Logan Warmoth – North Carolina, ss #22 – Toronto Blue Jays – Brian Miller – North Carolina, of #23 – Los Angeles Dodgers – Mark Vientos – Florida High School, ss #24 – Boston Red Sox – Hans Crouse – California High School, rhp #25 – Washington Nationals – Clarke Schmidt – South Carolina, rhp #26 – Texas Rangers – Garrett Mitchell – California High School, of #27 – Chicago Cubs – Wil Crowe – South Carolina, rhp #28 – Toronto Blue Jays – David Peterson - Oregon, lhp #29 – Texas Rangers – Heliot Ramos – Puerto Rico, of #30 – Chicago Cubs – Griffin Canning – UCLA, rhp #31 – Tampa Bay Rays – Jacob Heatherly – Alabama High School, lhp #32 – Cincinnati Reds – Brendon Little – State JC of Florida, lhp #33 – Oakland Athletics – Michael Gigliotti – Lipscomb, of #34 Milwaukee Brewers – Trevor Rogers – New Mexico High School, lhp #35 Minnesota Twins – Hagen Danner – California High School, rhp Danner’s status is rising this spring, so he might not be around when the Twins pick again, but I do know that the Twins like him. The remaining scouts from the old regime have been following Danner for many years, and if he is still around at #35 the Twins will likely take him. If they think that Danner will not be available they could try to get a deal with Tanner Houck. #36 Miami Marlins – M.J. Melendez – Florida High School, C #37 Minnesota Twins – K.J. Harrison – Oregon State, 1b Harrison is another player who the Twins have been following for a time. Jacksonville righty Mike Baumann and LSU’s Greg Deichmann are also in the running to be taken here.

He had minor knee surgery last fall.

Turner had a leg injury in his junior year, which hurt his stock.

I wasn't blogging at the time, but I wanted the Twins to take Turner or Jeff Hoffman. I wasn't a big fan of Gordon or Nola. So far my biggest mistake was being low on Benintendi, which was because I used to not buy into late risers. Needless to say, my philosophy has changed.

Faedo's stuff is off this year, but Wright has looked pretty good from a scouting perspective.

Would not shock me if he is top five.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-2-0-brendan-mckay-hunter-greene-lead-still-wide-open-draft/

BA has not been over hyping Greene at all. On the other hand, calling Greene a generational talent is. When there is a generational talent in the draft interest goes way up, which means more insider subscriptions sold, etc. KLAW is doing his work by himself, so I wouldn't say he is lying, just sharing his own personal opinion, but comparing Greene to A-Rod is either bold-faced lying or ignorance.

I have never had a whole lot of respect for Longenhagen. KLAW, on the other hand, does have a background in scouting. If you want an article that shows Greene's great character, but is balanced on the baseball side you should read Hudson Belinsky's article, not SI.

I amaze you. I have never been high on Greene, but maybe that is because he is the most overhyped player in the draft. Flawless pitching mechanics and having command of three pitches is just talk to help sell publications.

Greene is not the best player available in the draft, and anyone who has scouts comparing him to Syndergaard or A-Rod needs to ignore them. Especially the A-Rod comp. By the way, Baseball America wrote that MacKenzie Gore is beginning to pass Greene on a lot of teams' boards, so that is a name you should be keeping an eye on.

Smith is the best player at Virginia. His swing is more likely to bring success. Stats are not going to tell the whole story, especially in amateur baseball.

Poche never was in consideration.

They need to sign him first.

Really good. Here is the link to my report on him, for anyone who hasn't seen it: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8840-pavin-smith-2017-mlb-draft/

http://files.shandymedia.com/styles/page_full/s3/images/photos/thefumble/ncaa-college-world-series-finale7.jpg Courtesy of Getty Images Pavin Smith is a first baseman for the Virginia Cavaliers who is the best college hitter available in the draft. Smith is 6’2” and weighs 210 pounds, with a sweet swing that brings Jay Bruce to mind. The Florida native played baseball at Palm Beach Gardens High School and was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in the 32nd round of the 2014 draft, but he did not sign. Smith is a left-handed hitter who is athletic enough to play the corner outfield, but he profiles better at first base. His draft status is rising this spring, and when examining him it is easy to see why. His greatest tool is his hit tool, which continues to get better with more experience. Smith has great control of the bat head, and scouts believe that he will be able to adjust to a wood bat well. He has only five strikeouts in his first 156 at bats, which is a result of his mature approach at the plate. Smith has a swing that is made for line drives, but since he uses a wide stance he may need to incorporate a higher leg kick to increase his exit velocity. He rotates his hips well and has a very strong body, so I would not be surprised if his swing works against professional pitching as it is. Smith has above average power that has started to show up in games this year. In his first two years of college he did not hit a lot of home runs, but he has already set a career high in 2017, which is even more impressive when you consider that he plays in an extreme pitchers’ park. Smith has hit well against the best pitching in this draft class, including Brendan McKay, but J.B. Bukauskas was able to accomplish the feat of striking him out. Also, he is an above average defender at first base, and if a team wants to move him to the outfield he has a strong enough arm to play right, which was evident in his high school days when he sat in the low nineties from the mound. Smith has a good makeup, and is regarded as having a good understanding of the game. The Twins have been linked to Smith this year, and he is under consideration to be taken with the first pick. If Minnesota takes Smith they could sign him for considerably less that slot value, which would allow them to get more creative with their other top picks. Taking the Cavaliers first baseman would be following the Cubs’ model of taking the best college hitter available, which has worked out well for them. Many in the industry are uncomfortable with taking a first baseman when you have the first pick, with it having been seventeen years since one was taken, when the Marlins took Adrian Gonzalez. Currently Smith is not the favorite to be taken with the first pick, but he has helium right now. After examining him, it is no surprise that he is viewed as the top hitter in the draft. Smith does have his doubters, with the number one complaint against him being that he will not be as valuable as someone who can play up the middle. I would like to remind these people that there are many great defensive players who’s chance to play in the major leagues are stunted by their bat, but there are few great hitters who are prevented from playing in the majors by their defense. Although I have nothing against the revolution of putting more emphasis on better defense, I believe that it is causing lineups to be ignored in the most important part of a position player’s game, offense. The team that drafts Pavin Smith will get plenty of it.

Duh. Greene still faced better hitters than either Bundy or Taillon.

I have heard that they love Pavin Smith, so I am not surprised about a potential deal there. On a side note, I don't think that they like Lewis that much.

There is a big variety in hitter quality in high school. I am not on the Greene bandwagon, but facing hitters in Canada is a lot easier than facing hitters in South Cal.

He will be pitching on the 28th. He was only shut down for the Boras Classic.

No, but they might pick him #1. I don't think he will fall out of the top five.

They could do the same with Austin Beck, who is more athletic and has just as high of a ceiling as Greene.

Just started work on my first mock, which should be up soon. Some of you might be surprised with some connections I have heard about, but hey, I was the first person to connect Tyler Stephenson and the Reds back in 2015, and have had other success not going with the consensus.

Yep. He himself said it.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png Jeren Kendall is a centerfielder for the Vanderbilt Commodores who is regarded as the top outfielder available in the 2017 draft. Kendall is 5’10’’ and weighs 180 pounds, and is often referred to as a smaller version of Jacoby Ellsbury. The Commodores’ outfielder played prep baseball at Holmen High School in Wisconsin and was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 30th round, but chose to attend college. Kendall bats left and throws right, with natural athleticism adding to all areas of his game. To see what he offers as a prospect we will have to look at the basic areas of his game. The most important aspect of Kendall’s game is his hit tool, which has caused scouts a lot of concern. Jeren is a line drive hitter with a simple load, which is what you want from hitters. His lower half has become more synchronized with the rest of his swing since his high school days, but he will still occasionally get off balance with his back leg, causing him to have trouble hitting breaking balls. The main concern with him as a hitter is pitch recognition, and he admits that even when he is hitting well he cannot tell his teammates what pitches he is getting. As a result, there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, which has taken a toll on both his season and his draft status. Kendall has average power, and should be able to hit about 15 home runs on average when he reaches the big leagues. Offensively he profiles as a number two hitter in the order, with his plus speed giving him a chance to beat out routine grounders and steal bases. His speed and above average arm strength make him a great centerfielder, and now that Bryan Reynolds has left Vanderbilt for pro ball he has been given more chances to play at the premium spot. Because of Kendall’s defensive abilities, teams believe that Kendall will still be able to contribute in the majors even if his hitting never pans out. He is a good student and has a winning personality, and evaluators believe that he will work hard to make the needed adjustments. The Twins have the first pick in the draft, and they have been looking at Kendall this spring. There are other players who are currently higher on their board, but if his hitting picks up in the next six weeks he could make a case to be taken first in the draft. Some sources from the industry say that Kendall is the Twins favorite hitter in the draft class, and if they decide to go that route, he would be the favorite to be picked. Minnesota has a history of taking players brimming with athleticism, but with the new regime in the front office that could change. If the Twins are concerned about similar college players not having had success in the big leagues they may stay away, but Darin Erstad did have success after being taken first overall in the 1995 draft. Having looked at the basic areas of his game, it is easy to see why scouts like him, but it is also obvious that he will have a lot to work on once he gets drafted. Most people, like one Friday night starter in the SEC who I talked to, say others are better hitters, but that Kendall is one of the best all-around players in college. He will have to make progress as a hitter, since very few players get into major league lineups because of their defense, but he is talented enough to do that. Improving his pitch recognition and hitting to all fields would go a long way in advancing his career. Kendall would be a top five pick if the draft were held today, and when it is held in June he will likely be one of the first prospects to go.