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Alex

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Everything posted by Alex

  1. Alex
    I'd settle for them being better. It makes it easier to upgrade next year as well rather than start from the exact same point this offseason as last offseason. Not to mention overall options (trades) become better with better players.
  2. Alex
    If you are just arguing the top three, then fine, but there were a lot more that would have been upgrades to our current staff.
  3. Alex
    Ok, even if we give him some credit for recognizing what may have been a crap shoot, it's worth remembering that even he recognized starting pitching as problem #1 and that FA was going to be one way to look at fixing it (he said this in multiple interviews). I just have a very hard time giving him a pass when the starting staff has been bad for three years and they have not used assets to improve it. They've sat on money, held onto players they probably should have traded (and still are), re-signed a player when letting him go would have netted a draft pick (Capps), and have mis-evaluated what talent they have and talent have acquired to some extent. Now, this thread is about FA, so we'll stick to that, but there are pitchers out there that did succeed and it would have been nice to see the Twins at least take some risks or make a better effort than they did (I think you'd see many of us far more forgiving if they did), considering the money they had. Ryan on interviews seemed shellshocked by the amount pitchers were getting and rather than recognize it as the changing landscape backed completely off and sealed this season's demise as well.
  4. Alex
    So far, one of the two parties is doing a better job
  5. Alex
    Agreed, no one should have been expecting a massive improvement (and after the offseason most weren't) but the rotation is actually worse and that with two better situations from last season: no significant injuries and a much improved up the middle defense. One would expect on those factors alone, the pitching should be better.
  6. Alex
    By extension anyone could, and a lot of better hitting 1B wwild
  7. Alex
    RBI production is often a function of lineup position. Batting, for example, behind one of the league's best hitters. Coincidentally, it's also the reason our best hitter has so few RBIs, because he's consistently hitting behind a leadoff position that has been pretty terrible.
  8. Alex
    What's a reasonable contract for one of the league's worst hitting first basemen? I am asking seriously, even though I think it's a bad idea to sign him at all, especially as we might be adding Plouffe's name to the list of players that might be fighting for time there.
  9. Alex
    If we're honest with ourselves, both holding onto Morneau for the rest of the season and/or extending him are bad baseball moves. I love Morneau, but there are enough players in the organization that we have that can play first base and have at least comparable overall production.
  10. Alex
    Interesting that this is what we label as a gamble here (no offense to the person that said it) and exactly what some of us are talking about when we mention low risk. Pelfrey had very little upside even if healthy and was signed to a relatively cheap contract. Overall I liked the signing, just as I would have been fine with another pitcher who shall not be named, too, had it been for back of the rotation filling. Instead, these low risk/low upside moves were the spearhead for turning this ML worst rotation around (or not, as we've now seen). Context is everything.
  11. Alex
    I meant in terms of GMs, every one of them is going to prefer low risk/high reward strategies when given an option. My point was that at best, Ryan tends to go with low risk/marginal reward, especially in FA. The Twins need someone who is willing to take bigger risks on players with higher upside than what Ryan has done so far. Mauer's contract is a great discussion point because it's not something he would likely have done or do now (though tough to know) but the Twins have gotten their money's worth so far.
  12. Alex
    Everyone is low risk/high reward. The problem with Ryan is he is never willing to take a shot a high risk/high upside player. I'd argue that Ryan is overall, low risk/marginal reward type spender and every once in awhile there is a big hit, that hasn't lasted or hasn't been returned for value. The only place he's arguably done that is in the pen (Burton, Fien) where you have the lowest value and most transitional players, and there were plenty of failures there besides those two in the last couple of seasons.
  13. Alex
    Well, for my money regarding Meyer, I'd much rather have him shut down than how the organization often handles injuries. Hopefully they got this right from the start and he doesn't need surgery or something.
  14. Alex
    People tend to have less impact on a game (by your measures) when the players ahead of them don't geton in front of them, especially true during his hottest hitting streak of the season, and it's tough to score when you don't really have anyone hitting behind you, but despite that, as pointed out, he's still scoring more runs than anyone else on the team. Edit: While I'm not sure this is a stat you care about, Mauer has the highest Win Probability Added on the team. It's not saying much this season, and he is lower than last year, but it's pretty ridiculous to be critical of him, IMO.
  15. Alex
    It's probably partially that but also because, as mentioned, that he has hit more balls in the air and is striking out more. I actually think the notion he's change his approach is dead wrong, btw. I think he has, and the numbers are a result of it not working as well with RISP or he's just having bad luck. On the other hand, it doesn't matter what he does, people were criticizing him for it last season, too when he was pretty damn good at it.
  16. Alex
    The irony with this lineup, of course, is that if he's batting third, he's likely got two guys in front of him that can't get on base so he comes up with two outs. IMO, it never makes sense to give your worst hitters more at bats by placing them at the top of the lineup. I don't mind Carroll at the top, though, and hopefully Dozier continues to hit.
  17. Alex
    The DH allows the great hitters of the game to stay a bit longer, and I think that's a good thing, even if there is something elegant about making everyone hit. One of the best reasons I've seen for everyone going to the same rule is not only the above idea but the fact that AL teams often give significant cash to one of their best hitters but they end up often having to sit him regularly and maybe even in key games down the stretch with the new schedule. This, combined with the idea above, even without the fact that I'm partial to seeing players do what they are good at, would put me in the camp where I'd like to see DH rule as common.
  18. Alex
    He's played 32 games at catcher and 12 at DH, so it's not like they're inflating the value that much. Honestly, I'd prefer he didn't play catcher at all this season. But to also be fair, a .900+ OPS is going to be darn valuable wherever you play. But I agree, the travesty is the inability to build around him.
  19. Alex
    Mauer plays catcher. Morneau plays 1B. Morneau has a .348 OBP and .401 SLG (.749 OPS) Mauer has a .415 OBP and .497 SLG (.913 OPS) Mauer's OPS would put him 4th among 1B and his SLG would rank 10th. Oh, did I mention he plays catcher? Mauer would still get a ton of money. Fangraphs calculates his worth this season so far to be $10M (on pace for more than $30M value this season, so.... While we could argue about whether he'd get $23M now for as long as he did, a) with contracts going up the way they are with a lot of new revenue next season it's not out of the question and the contract really has nothing to do with the Morneau situation. The fact that it gets brought up as a crutch for almost every reason this team fails is exhausting. Mauer is the best thing the big league team has going for it and he's been worth every penny. You're seeing one of the best hitters in baseball daily, and the catcher with the best average, 3rd best OPS and 2nd best OBP in the history of the game in an era that is becoming more pitcher friendly. Get over the contract.
  20. Alex
    I now see your point. Makes sense. Thanks. I don't disagree on the Twins money management either, but that doesn't mean I won't be rational;)
  21. Alex
    I agree (and that was my point -- he's not worth it. I was going to call it "crazy" but refrained). $7M would be the high end obviously, and he's not hitting THAT bad and on a 1-year deal for a team that may not have an immediate option at 1B...Overall, though, I agree that they can probably even get more value for the $7M than Morneau. Though, know the FA value and who could sign for what in terms of 1B types better than I do. My point was just that I don't mind bringing him back for cheaper if we don't have another option.
  22. Alex
    What does the money matter? It matters because you could get a better hitter for $13M than Morneau. If they pay something more at his actual value, then they have more money to spend elsewhere -- simple math, but basically I just don't think it's a good idea to throw away money. As for "you can't sign him unless he is a FA," seriously? They can certainly negotiate an extension prior to the end of the season. I just can't imagine a team paying him that much money, and if they do, more power to him.
  23. Alex
    A qualifying offer-about $13.3M-- to a 1B with an OPS of .748 on pace to finish with fewer than 10 HR? I love Morneau, but he'll take that offer in a second (or he'll decline and no team will pay the pick). Even if he gets going and had a season like he did last year, he's not worth it. Currently, he's a league average hitter (OPS+ 104), which the Twins can certainly use, but at 1B that means he's well below average. Among qualified 1B he's 26th in SLG and 21st in OPS. He is 10th in OBP and 7th in Average, so he has some value, but not that much. I'd agree that if Parmelee continues to struggle, resigning Morneau becomes an option, but at somewhere around $5-$7M.
  24. Alex
    ....next time he's up
  25. Alex
    My call...Carroll ends the no hit bid.
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