spideyo
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Everything posted by spideyo
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Is the Affiliation Dance about to begin?
spideyo replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I would be surprised if Beloit left. It's fairly close, and it seems like there are always lots of Twins fans tripping out there. They also seem to be doing a decent job of player development. Rochester on the other hand... They've been around longer than the Twins have, and the last couple years have been BAD for them. I would expect that they would actually be more likely to nix the contract than the Twins would. They want to return to their winning ways, and if they don't think the Twins are going to make that happen, I wouldn't be surprised if they look elsewhere. Are there any AAA teams any closer to us that might be open to switching affiliations? Far more likely we would switch to an existing team, and then try to move them in a few years, than that we would start a new team from scratch in a new market -
I was looking at the MLB.com list of the twins top 20 prospects...Is it just me, or is it a little worrying that only one of those guys is at AAA? Sure there are cases of guys who jump straight from AA to the bigs, but there are also plenty of stories of guys who were hotshots in the lower minors that never made it The Show.
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Butera is not a #1 catcher, that's clear. He was thrown into a position last year where he was waaay over his head. But the role he is in now is fantastic. Coincidental or not, Liriano has done great with Butera. Deduno did great with him today. Thanks to the position flexibility of Doumit and Mauer, his catching isn't keeping them out of the lineup, but it DOES allow Gardy to keep those two in the lineup and/or PH them more readily in close games, knowing that he won't have to throw a mask on Mastorianni if the game goes 18 innings. If the twins can get their starters to the point where we can go back to a 4-man bench, that would be ideal of course. But I for one am very comfortable with having Drew on our 25-man roster.
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Why trade him now, before the deadline? Assuming he finishes the season on the same pace he's kept, he'll still be valuable as a trade chip in the off-season. Plus, right now the only people that would trade a lot for him are those looking to make the post season. Over the winter you will have a much broader pool of potential trading partners. Is there any benefit to netting prospects now, as opposed to in November? Are there any major prospects that are being dangled out there right now that we expect won't be available in 3-4 months? Is there anyone in the twins system that would actually benefit significantly from us losing an OF starter right now? Just as with Span, Willingham is in our control for awhile, and there is no reason to go out and jump on any deal we can get. His hitting style fits extremely well in Target Field, I don't think there is any reason to expect that him playing their longer will decrease his trade value.
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D'ya think they asking a ton from everyone, or are the Yankees gonna be asked to pay more?
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Plus, he's the ONLY Twins exec that's willing to tell me to "turn this crap off and put on a game" when sports center starts repeating the same headline story for the fourth time
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I think he's done well, and is earning a spot on the 2013 roster. At this point though, I wouldn't be prepared to hand him a starting job. Right now, we have pretty much zero better options at 3b, so there is no reason not to play him there every day. The more grounders he takes and AB's he has, the better able he is to adjust and grow (in theory). If I were Plouffe though, I'd be spending the off-season working on 1B skills as well as 3B/OF. If we had another option at 3b that could hit, I wouldn't mind seeing Plouffe sub for Mourny against LHP.
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If nothing else, Terry Ryan's willingness to publicly speak critically of the Twins is a vast and refreshing improvement from bill smith.
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
spideyo replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If you are going to re-sign him based on his turnaround this year, then you need to be prepared to hand a roster spot to Butera as well. He has pitched extremely well with Butera behind the plate, but was absolute ****e with Mauer and Doumit. Coincidence? Maybe. But then again, it's always seemed that Frankie's problems are more mental than anything, and when you've got a guy who bounces between "potential HOF Ace-type production" and "would get fired from the Saints", would you be willing to risk changing ANYTHING from his routine? Now, I'm personally ok with keeping Butera as his personal catcher, with Doumit and Mauer platooning catcher and DH the other 4 starts. I know most people are not. -
With the elimination of the Type A/B free agents and most draft pick compensations, what do you think the long-term impact will be on mid-season trades? It already seems like a lot of teams are more reluctant to get "rental players". Will we start seeing a lot fewer mid-season trades, at least big name ones?
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I have no idea what exactly a bench coach does, other than take over when the Manager gets thrown out, so I can't say for sure if Ulger is doing a good job or not. But I like the idea of Red-Dog in that spot, maybe to prep him as Gardy's successor.
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We all need to remember to, that unlike last year, not a single one of our position players will hit Free Agency at the end of the season. In fact, Pavano and Liriano are the only guys who will be eligible for FA that don't have a club option. So basically, to move ANYBODY right now, they need to decide if the offer is better than what they will get in the off-season. Other teams that are in the basement right now, might see Span/Willingham/Morneau/etc. as potentially valuable pieces to rebuild around, but aren't going to chase after them right now.
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Sell tickets. Also, all those homers might not help the team win a ton this year, but if we can make some serious starting pitching improvements for 2013, all those homers will do wonders when we aren't losing by 5 runs before the 4th inning
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We've got plenty of prospects in the "speedy centerfield leadoff hitter" mold. We don't exactly have a huge stockpile of Mashers. Plus, Span DOES have a history of head issues, between the concussions and the weird inner-ear issue he had a few years ago, so there is no guarantee that he'll be a long-term solution. Right now we'd be selling pretty high on him. Other things to consider: Trading Willingham now sends a bad message to other FA's we want to attract. Basically, we're saying that if you perform well but the team struggles, we're going to send you out immediately. Why would anyone want to be in that situation? People like to play for a contender, but they also like to not switch teams every 5-6 months. While Willingham could be replaced in the future through FA, Span can be replaced RIGHT NOW with in-house candidates. A whole lot easier to slide Revere over to Center than hope we get lucky finding another guy who can hit homers at Target Field. Homeruns alone won't win games, but they certainly help, and they definitely drive fan interest. Odds are good that by the end of the season, Willingham will have hit more homers than any other Twin at Target Field in the last three seasons combined (currently Thome holds the record with 21 in a Twins uniform). His batting style is an excellent fit for this park. Are we really ready to dump that?
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Rather than focus on the negative and speculate on which Twin you hate and think should be dumped...who would you like to see in Minneapolis when the rosters expand in September?
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The only reason to waive any of these guys is if we can work an after-the-deadline trade. There is no advantage in any way to just dump these guys mid-season.
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Between his big contract and injury history, Morneau won't draw an offer worth taking. Pavano won't be traded while he's still on the DL (which he probably will be until August). Fien and Gray aren't going to be sent off unless they completely implode. They've both been adequate, but not good enough to draw trade interest. There isn't really anyone beating down the door for a bullpen spot. Why risk losing a player for nothing that is doing their job just to give a kid who hasn't earned a spot yet an extended tryout? Remember, any of the guys down in the minors could be back up here Sept. 1 anyways without having to throw someone away. And why in the bloody hell do people think Casilla is going anywhere? He isn't drawing trade interest (mostly because he isn't playing on a day-to-day basis). There is ZERO reason to DFA him. Who's progress is he impeding? Who is going to replace him? How is getting rid of him (or Carroll for that matter) going to help the team right now? What harm is it possibly going to do to keep him and Carroll where they are until the end of the season?
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Hendricks is also the youngest of the bunch by a couple years, and he's only been in this country for what, 3 or 4 years? Yes, Australia is an English speaking country, but that doesn't mean there aren't cultural differences he's had to adjust to.
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Reasoning on starting pitching rotation
spideyo replied to greengoblinrulz's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Where are you seeing this pitching rotation posted? -
Starting Pitching didn't look that bad...There was hope Liriano would pitch like he's pitching now, Baker had a very good year in 2011, Pavano has been a horse the last couple years and wasn't expected to pitch this bad, and Marquis was expected to pitch at least to his career averages. That left one spot for Diamond, De Vries, Walters, Swarzak, Duensing, Hendricks, Deduno, Maloney and Manship to fight over. We were projected to be at least improved in SP before Baker went down, Pavano got hurt, Liriano lost his mind again, and Marquis melted down. Coming out of last year, the bullpen was actually far more a concern than the rotation, and Ryan did a good job addressing that.
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The increasing specialization of players at younger and younger ages, means there probably aren't many pitchers at any level who are capable of throwing 8-9 innings, batting, running the bases, and doing it all on 3-4 days rest. The fundamental mindset has changed. On top of that, the Player's union LOVES specialized pitchers and the DH. Pinch hitters and pinch runners don't get nearly as big a contract as a dedicated LOOGY, Closer, or "big old guy who can still hit homers but can barely run".
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I think the odds are probably 60-70% that a trade doesn't materialize in the next month. I wouldn't nesc. see it as a large failure on Ryan's part. He doesn't really have that much to work with. Pavano and Capps are both hurt, Liriano is pitching well right now but his sucky start is still going to hold down his value, and if any of our young arms are pitching well enough to draw interest, it's unlikely they will want to trade them since they will want to keep them around for the next couple years. As far as the position players go, Mourneau still carries a ton of baggage with his injury history, big contract, and his current struggles against lefties. Plouffe is intriguing, but still way too inexperienced to draw real interest. You can't really get rid of Casilla or Carroll because A) not much value and no one to replace them. Doumit just got extended, Willingham is more valuable as an anchor for the 2013 lineup than what he's worth, and Mauer is not going anywhere. That leaves Revere or Span, and I would hope that Terry only moves those guys if he gets a very very good offer. Other than Liriano, pretty much everyone else that could draw a decent deal is either hurt, sucking, or will still be under contract in the offseason and could be shopped then if a decent deal doesn't show up.
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Unless/until one of our current OF's gets traded or hurt, there really is no point bringing up Tosoni, Arcia, or Carson. Mastroianni is doing exactly what I expect from a 4th OF, and Revere/Span/Willingham is doing better than any other combination we could throw out there for starters. Burroughs bats left handed, so he wouldn't really be an improvement in any way over Parmelee. Ultimately, you are right though, that extra bench spot is relatively inconsequential until we get the pitching sorted out.
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Whoops, I totally forgot about Waldrop. I'd send him back down too. He's not really getting many innings right now, let him be a top reliever in AAA until one of our relievers gets hurt, traded, or melts down.
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I think it's reasonable to assume the Twins will try to go back down to 12 pitchers after the All-Star break, although that may largely depend on how fast our injured guys get back in shape and how Deduno and De Vries do this weekend. So assuming Capps, Walters, and Duensing are good to go and Pavano is not going to be back until at least August (a pretty safe bet), what changes would you make to the roster? I'd like to see them bring Walters back into the rotation, and keep Deduno and De Vries there for now. Let's figure out if these three guys have what it takes to either be a part of the rotation in the future, or at least build up some trade value so they are worth throwing into some kind of package in the off season. This lets them bring Duensing back to the pen where he has been most successful, and with Capps back they can send Fein and Roberts back to AAA to keep honing their skills. I don't know who I'd bring up for that 4th bench spot though. I'd love to have Valencia come up and earn some trade value as a pinch hitter or starting against LHP (with Plouffe sliding over to 1b), but I have very little confidence that he'd actually be more valuable as a pinch hitter than Butera at this point. Parmelee is clearly the best hitter right now in AAA, but there simply isn't anything for him to do up here.