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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    So let's quantify his affect. Hunter has been a media darling his whole career. They see a veteran player who loves the spotlight and who gives good quotes, who acts like he's their buddy (except in one recent press conference). They say, hey, he's the kind of guy who may decide to mentor, let's write about that. It's a good story. An old school story. Then they talk to young teammates and former young teammates and ask about that. The young players are going to say what, exactly? What about the fighting when things get bad?
  2. jimmer
    -18 runs saved. -18.3 UZR. Dead last for all qualifying MLB RF. Extend that out to RF who played 600 or more innings in RF, we get 26 players. Dead last again in UZR. In fact, so far from 25th, that the guy 25th had a UZR of -10.4.And for overall Fangraphs defense rating for him, he had a -24.0. The 25th RF had a -15.5. 57th of 59 qualify MLB OFs overall. Horrendous kind of fits :-)
  3. jimmer
    Gibson
  4. jimmer
    'Hunter. Helps with fans, helps with young players, helps with clubhouse stability. That's three bases right there. News: We aren't going to win the World Series. Can we do something positive in the mean time? ' How do we know he will actually help the young players and help with clubhouse stability? Because it's a good story? Will we know by the fights in the clubhouse he likes to have with whomever is the best player on the team when the team isn't doing well (like how we are expected to be this year, again). Is it the press conferences where he can't control himself? Are we going to bother to take into account the horrendous defense he provides?
  5. jimmer
    I'd say the Indians have the deepest and most talented rotation. And they are young with room to improve.
  6. jimmer
    yeah, I'd rather have a Joe Maddon type than an old school anything.
  7. jimmer
    No, I'm really not limiting anything. I'm not going to knock a guy cause he isn't driven in by someone or if he hasn't had a lot of people to knock in. I judge him on the things he has control over, which I explained in my post. And this goes for any player.
  8. jimmer
    Two of the worst defensive OF in the game will be manning our corners and one is switching corners. And we may still play an IF in CF.
  9. jimmer
    Their horrible defense hasn't exactly been helpful to the rotation or the team overall.
  10. jimmer
    Well, he hasn't hit well with RISP the last two seasons, which I stated in my post, so like I said in that post, I'd put him at #2 for that reason since he still gets a high OBP. If he comes back to his normal self, as I expect him to do, he might very well deserve to move back to the 3 spot at some point at least for awhile. If these young guys progress like we hope, he may very well end up needing to stay in the 2 spot. My issue is judging players, any player (not Mauer specifically), on stats like RBI and runs, which are based too much on what other players do. If he's getting on base at a very good clip, then he's doing his part by getting on base and not creating one of 27 outs allowed to a team. There is a direct correlation to getting on base and scoring runs. That's why OBP is such a valued stat. More runners on base, more opportunities to score. If he hits well with RISP and the cumulative numbers don't reflect that, then he is still doing his part.
  11. jimmer
    People like to criticize Mauer's RBI totals, yet his career line w/RISP is .330/.456/.479. What's bad about that? Those are fantastic numbers. Who on the team does better? Perhaps it's the amount of opportunities with RISP that he's had that's been the problem? And for those who want to judge him by runs scored, the man gets on base 40% of the time. If he's not scoring, maybe it's because people who don't hit well with RISP are hitting behind him. And as if counting numbers like RBI and runs scored aren't bad enough indicators of position players productivity, due to how much other players performance factor into them, it's even worse for catchers due to games played compared to other position players. Yet people have forever compared his counting numbers to position players across the board. Players with high OBPs need to bat in the top three and if your best OBP guy also hits best with RISP, 3rd is probably the best spot. For me, 2nd or 3rd is the best spot for him for those reasons, and if he continues to hit poor with RISP, like he has the last two years, then #2 spot is best. I think his 2nd half of last season shows he's trending back up and I expect a close to normal year for Mauer next year and a complete return in 2016.
  12. jimmer
    Notice how easily some are to write off Hicks and still so high on Meyer and his potential. Yet they are the same age. And Span was only a year younger when he finally got his chance and made the most of it.
  13. jimmer
    Two outlier seasons with a high WAR? A solid starter is 2-3 WAR 2009: 4.6 2010: 4.3 2011: 3.7 2012: 6.1 If anything, the last couple seasons, partly due to injury, are more outliers with what he's done since establishing himself.
  14. jimmer
    While Mauer absolutely had a bad year last year (I still think he was dealing with concussion issues) for his career Mauer hits extremely well with RISP. On top of that, he normally has a wRC+ (weighted runs CREATED plus) over 130. 120 is above average for a 1B. I think too many people are stuck thinking RBI is the best barometer for producing runs and it isn't. It's a stat that is way too dependent on other players. He creates runs, and has throughout his career. People just focus hard when he doesn't produce and blow off the times he does. It doesn't matter how well he performs, it will never be enough.
  15. jimmer
    I agree with the negative regression part on Kluber, but I think that's more than covered by the improvements gained by having full seasons of Carassco, Salazar, Bauer and House.
  16. jimmer
    I see a few people seem to think Cleveland is in trouble. Some saying 4th or 5th. They made the playoffs in 2013, Went 85-77 last year. This offseason they added Moss in RF (big improvement), they replaced their shortstop last year (about an even tradeoff offensively but the replacement is much younger and MUCH better defensively) . That's pretty much it. No one really outperformed last year and Bourn and Kipnis underperformed big time. Should see a bounceback from them. The have the Cy Young winner. They'll have Carrasco in the rotation the whole year. Bauer has the talent to do even better (decent FIP), Salazar is K machine (very good FIP), and House (above average FIP) should be the 5th guy. They are all young with their best ahead of them yet have already done well. I know they got Floyd, but I can't imagine him staying long unless he's actually doing well. They have way too much quality depth in that rotation. And, again, they won 85 last year (even with the poor defense which should improve with a healthy Bourn and new shortstop) and made the playoffs the year before. I don't see where the dropoff is going to be.
  17. jimmer
    Even moreso with 10 teams in the playoffs instead of the four there were in '87 and eight in '06. In '07 all you had to do was win one series before making it to the W Series. Way less of a crapshoot to make it to the W Series once you got to the playoffs at that point in MLB history.
  18. jimmer
    A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays.
  19. jimmer
    Since these international signings have been brought up, Here's a story that talks about international FA signings and what rewards the teams have had at the major league level. Not for the faint of heart. Guess which team has accumulated the least amount of b-WAR? They decided to use b-WAR, not sure why. Here's a disclaimer: 'This time I will only be tallying which team signed which player as an international free agents — I will not be tallying other MLB teams that each player eventually played for during their careers stateside. Players who were born in these countries but who were eventually drafted in the rookie draft are excluded from the count'. This is because this article is about international scouting. Another point, about the WAR tally in the article, 'The WAR tallies in the table below use Baseball Reference’s WAR and only include value that the player accumulated when with the team that originally signed him. (I.e., the Mariners do not reap the bounty of Choo’s production because they traded him just a few dozen games into his big league career.)' http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-mlb-teams-are-blazing-new-trails-in-scouting/
  20. jimmer
    I think this prediction page needs to be saved somewhere so we can take a look at the end of the season. If my money was just my own, I'd bet a paycheck or two that the Indians don't finish last, though the wife may have something to say about that. I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion. Edit: I just checked Steamer's projections for 2015. They have the Indians in 2nd place in the ALC, a hair behind the Tigers.
  21. jimmer
    Don't forget Van Slyke. Great defender too.
  22. jimmer
    If ERA was a stat that judged pitcher's ability solely on what they do, that MIGHT be true. With our defense, there's no way they all have an ERA under 4.00. One, maybe and he'd have to pitch out of his mind like Hughes did last year. ''a pitcher with a large ERA-FIP gap probably plays in front of a very good or very bad defense.' Our TWINS rotation ERA-FIP gap was over a full run, and in the direction you don't want it to go. That's really bad. The next largest gap going in the direction you don't want it to go was just the slightest hair over half a run. at .51) As far as why ERA is not the best stat to judge a pitcher, here is a good read: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/era/
  23. jimmer
    He has Houston ranked as 3rd.
  24. jimmer
    I like the Cleveland team. Few holes and quality starting pitching. Love the manager too. I see a three-way battle between the Tigers, Indians and Royals.
  25. jimmer
    I think if you had to pick one guy on that team and say HE is the leader, it'd be Dozier. Of course, that is completely opinion. That opinion is based on how he carries himself on the field, along with how he seems to push people with his infectious playing style. He's like Punto but with actual starting talent and solid fundamentals.
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