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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    That's 'runs produced' not 'runs created', two different stats. And that stat uses two stats heavily dependent on other player's actions. The actual runs created stat, he was 50th in the majors in 2013 even though he missed the last 6 weeks. RC= on-base factor times advancement factor divided by opportunity factor. Which, in it's easiest calculation (one that uses info we grew up knowing) is: (H+BB)X TB divided by AB+BB. H=hits, BB= walks, TB= total bases.
  2. jimmer
    I have not argued for Mauer to bat leadoff.
  3. jimmer
    How many of these base runners were in scoring position? What was the difference in speed of runners on base (cause Hunter batted after speedy guys, Plouffe not so much)? How often were the runners going at the crack of the bat cause there was two outs, and so on and so on. So many variables that are out of the hands of the guy doing the plating.
  4. jimmer
    When you just look at runs, RBI and HR, you take away moving guys over on the bases, you miss extending innings, you miss many things. And there's an assumption that if he had just tried a bit harder/been more aggressive, it automatically would have resulted in an RBI even if the pitcher isn't giving him anything really good to hit. Votto talked about this kind of reasoning a lot. It was a good read, Guy gets on base by single, walk, HBP, etc. Next guy gets a single to deep LC or RC, and the runner goes to 3B. Next guy makes an out with a fly deep enough to score a runner. The guy who got the single and put the guy at 3B so he could be plated by a fly out to the OF gets no credit at all for the run scoring, yet he was instrumental in that guy scoring.
  5. jimmer
    Mauer also hits into double plays because he makes a lot of contact and people who do that when runners are on run that risk. While we're on the subject though, how is an average of 19 GiDP over a 162 games (696 BA) a ton of GiDP? That's less than 3 % of PAs. Miguel Cabrera has averaged 21 over 162 games (696 PA) Mauer has hit into 20 or more GiDP only three times in his career and two of those times he won the batting title and finished 4th and 6th in MVP voting. The 3rd time he led the league in OBP. Cabrera has hit into 20 or more GiDP 6 times (twice as man as Mauer) and one of those times he led the league in GiDP and won his first MVP. What's Cabrera's flaw that's causing this? GiDP numbers are extremely over-emphasized and it's mostly because announcers like ours make a big deal of it and fans buy into it. I think part of Mauer recent struggles are, in part, due to recovering from concussion but also the expansion of the strike zone which MLB is addressing. I expect a nice season for him as he continues to put the concussion in the rear view mirror and the strike zone gets tightened.
  6. jimmer
    Last year, the top 5 AL teams in scoring were the top 5 teams in OBP in the AL. In the NL, 4 of the top 5 in OBP were in the top 5 in NL for scoring. The longer a team can delay making 27 outs along with the more people on base, the better chance they have to score.
  7. jimmer
    I'm a big fan of a stat called wRC+ (and I know a lot of people don't like metrics, so take it for what you will) For the few who don't know, it's a stat that tells us about a player's ability to create runs compared to others in the league and isn't positionally adjusted, meaning if a catcher had a 130 wRC+ as a catcher, he'd have it as a 1B. For his career, Mauer's wRC+ is in the 130s. In 2012 it was in the 130s and in 2013 in was in the 140s. In the 130s is considered above average. His numbers are closer to the lower level of great than the lower line of of above average (so basically above above average).We have no established player on our team that has proven they are a better run creator than a normal Mauer and we only had one starter last year above a wRC+ of 118 9 (and we can add Hunter as one with a wRC+ of below 118), and that was Santana in the low 130s helped by his BABIP over .400, which I doubt is sustainable. Even if his speed helps him have a better than league average BABIP, it will still very likely be much lower than .400. So if we believe Mauer will be closer to his normal career performance... Below is a good read for those interested. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
  8. jimmer
    Our guys batting first last year got on base at a .328 clip and only had 37 doubles and 6 triples. That's not just the first inning, that's over all 767 PA that happened for our hitters batting in the one spot. Knowing that, I'm not sure how many scenarios our #2 hitter would have to drive in runner from scoring position in the first inning of a game, but I'm guessing we shouldn't disqualify a batter from the #2 spot based on such a criteria that doesn't happen anywhere enough over the course of a whole season to matter.
  9. jimmer
    Since I mentioned Hunter's OPS+ with RISP last year being 93, I thought I'd also point out that our team OPS+ with RISP was 104.
  10. jimmer
    What if you speediest guy only gets on base at like a .305 OBP or lower clip. Fastest guy from home to dugout? If he doesn't get on base a lot, it doesn't matter how fast he is.
  11. jimmer
    It's about credit when someone says so and so player is a good run producer because he has X amount of RBI and argument that comes up time and time again.
  12. jimmer
    In regards to the scenario in italics, Mauer can just advance a runner by getting a hit or a walk? Something he's normally very good at (last year, clearly a down year). Do we advocate sacrificing one of the precious 27 outs we get to advance a runner one spot on a regular basis, especially in the 1st inning? Also in that bolded scenario, when batting 2nd only matters the first time through a lineup, how often is the leadoff guy on 2nd base for the #2 hitter to score anyway? And how many times did either scenario happen last year in the first inning, do you think? Then there are the 3-5 other PAs of the game that come up after that first inning. Do we really believe that the Mauer we saw last year is going to be the same guy we see in the next few years? Even if he is, and I doubt that, he'll still has the best OBP on the team.
  13. jimmer
    His numbers with RISP don't suggest he had a knack for it last year or the year before really. Overall RBI might suggest he did but not how he actually did in those situations. Plouffe did considerably better with RISP than Hunter (OPS+ of 113 as opposed to Hunter's 93), and had less RBI than Hunter.
  14. jimmer
    Yes and played on a different team. Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own. Another is for things like the following scenario which happens all the time. Guy gets on 1B by single, walk, HBP, whatever. Next guy gets a single to RF and guy on 1B goes to 3B. Next guy hits a fly ball that is caught for an out but is deep enough to score the guy. The guy who put the runner in such an advantage scoring position gets zero credit either in the way of run or RBI, but was vital to the guy scoring even more than the guy who made an out to score him and got the RBI.
  15. jimmer
    Yes I would unless he was a big time slugger and then he'd still be lower like 7th. For the most part, my low OBP guy I'd have bat 9th.
  16. jimmer
    Almost all 'conventional wisdom' needs to be looked at under multiple microscopes. IMO, best idea is to have your best OBP guys get as many PAs as possible.
  17. jimmer
    This is going to sound mean but it's absolutely not meant to be. What Gardy really needs to do is use this year off and lose a good chunk of weight. He looks unhealthy.
  18. jimmer
    'Maddon – not a new hire, per se.Thought of in high regards of the SABR community' I think he's well regarded throughout baseball. There was a poll conducted with players from across MLB and he was voted as manager they'd most like to play for. His players love him for his out of the box thinking.
  19. jimmer
    We may hope that we won't be getting a top 6 pick next year (I know I hope we don't), but I wouldn't bet money on us not getting a top pick again next year.
  20. jimmer
    I remember when people were adamant that if Gardy got fired he'd get a new manager job like super quickly. There were a good chunk of manager jobs open and he didn't get hired. Did he decide to take a year off from managing before or after all the jobs were filled? I imagine he'll get hired as a bench coach or the like if he leaves the organization. If he goes to TV, I hope it's ESPN since I watch MLB Network :-)
  21. jimmer
    Torii Hunter. the RBI guy. hit .274 with an OPS+ of 93 (meaning below league average) last year with RISP.
  22. jimmer
    I strongly dislike the White Sox. I also strongly dislike the Yankees, but for other reasons besides the money thing. And I have no feelings about the Packers either way. I'm not a Vikings fan.
  23. jimmer
    Dave Cameron's take on this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-63-million-for-yoan-moncada-makes-sense/
  24. jimmer
    I don't hate any team that uses their money the way those teams do. They have the money and they spend it within the rules. Even if I had an issue with it, I would hate the system for being the way it is, not the teams that use every resource available within the rules to try and make their team the best it can be.
  25. jimmer
    pocket it :-)
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