Cap'n Piranha
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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha
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Yup. He bet on himself, and right now, it looks like he's losing. Despite all of that, if he merely keeps Darnold instead of letting KOC have his "I'm Keith Hernandez" moment, the team might be 6-3, or even 7-2 (you can argue even competent QB play would have turned PIT, PHI, and BAL into wins). Alternatively, if KOC wanted Darnold, and KAM said no because he wanted to dive into FA, and was locked into that because of poor drafts and foolish extensions...then KAM very clearly is not a good GM, and while that in no way makes him a bad person, it does make him a bad employee.
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He did have a choice. The choice was to tell the Wilfs that they weren't being realistic about the state of the team, and if they wanted him to take the job, he needed to be given some latitude to make long-term decisions. If the Wilfs demurred, he could have said "thanks for the time, best of luck on your search" and waited for the next opening; it's not like NFL GM jobs don't come open rather frequently.
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Yup. It's gonna be hard to sell the Wilfs on keeping KAM around if after 4 years he's only made the playoffs twice, won zero games, whiffed so badly on a QB pick that they cut ties after only 12 games played, and missed the playoffs despite back-to-back FA spending sprees that created one of the oldest most expensive rosters in football.
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They can pretty easily get out from under Love if they trade him after 6/1 of next year-they'd eat $16M in dead cap in 2026, and $31M in 2027, but save $19.4M on their cap next year. It's even easier in 2027; trade him after 6/1 and you have $36.7M in dead cap in 2027 (but save $25.7M against the cap), and only $15M dead cap in 2028 (when the cap might well be $425M). The Vikings would incur minimal dead cap by moving on from JJM next year, but would not get any savings unless they did a post 6/1 trade. Same as in 2027--no savings for cutting him, only for trading him, and less than $4M in savings. So yes, less prohibitive to move on from JJM, but also much less beneficial as well.
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You keep saying that you think KOC will win a Superbowl--I'm compelled to ask; what makes you think that? The offense under KOC is statistically worse than under the last 3 years of Zimmer. 22.2 offensive PPG for KOC, 24.9 in the last 3 years of Zimmer; KOC has ranked 12th in offensive PPG since getting here, but Zimmer was 8th in his last 3 years. And before you bring up QBs, remember that KOC inherited Kirk, and got him for almost 25 games, had Darnold for 17 games, and has now had both JJM and Wentz by choice--he's only had 9 games where he hasn't had either an above average QB or his hand-picked guy. As for Darnold, a lot of people will want to give KOC credit for his development, and certainly he deserves some, but Darnold has gotten dramatically better this year under the tutelage of...Klint Kubiak and Andrew Janocko, the OC and QB coach KOC did not retain when he became HC. So if you want to say KOC is great at developing QBs and running an offense, and use Darnold as your evidence, you have to admit that the Vikings had guys on staff even better that they got rid off in favor of KOC. I see a guy who can put a good not great offense on the field, does not seem to be anything special at developing QBs, and currently has a team that seems soft and undisciplined. I'm sure we could do worse at HC than KOC, but I just don't understand where the all-in on him as a SB winning coach comes from. I'd be much more inclined this offseason to jettison KAM and KOC, promote Flores to HC, and hire a bunch of guys from Det, KC, and Bal to run my FO and offense.
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Harbaugh shut this down, as did KOC.
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I agree with your opinion--finding out if JJM could be the future is priority 1--but here's the problem; the roster does not reflect that reality. Kwesi has built one of the oldest, most expensive rosters in the league thanks to back-to-back FA spending sprees, and handing out extensions to decent but not good/great players. Extensions for Hockenson, Metellus, Oliver, Mason, and Ham have a combined AAV of over $46M--more than enough to have kept Darnold and signed another OL. This sounds an awful lot like the Vikings had no idea how far away JJM was from being a competent QB when they drafted him, or the Vikings were completely wrong about KOC's ability to turn him into one in short order. At this point, it is too early to give up, especially because there's no clear option to get better, and because the 2027 draft could be loaded--Sayin and Carr are top options. It behooves the Vikings to let JJM sink or swim, but if he sinks, it better be someone other than KAM + KOC calling the shot on which QB reboots the franchise in 2027.
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Who's they, and what does this have to do with the Vikings?
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I don't quite buy that--think back to the Josh Dobbs game in 2023. Dobbs had only been with the team for what, 5 days, and got thrust into playing? The Vikings had one penalty for 4 yards that day; the next week it was 5-35. If JJM, after 18 months in KOC's system, still doesn't have a grasp on it, that's an issue. And yes, I understand he's only played 4 live games. But after 18 months, the only person who should know the plays and calls better than JJM is KOC, and that's because KOC is the author. I also think there is too much weight being given to this "JJM is so inexperienced" narrative. He played a year at IMG in HS, which is basically a semi-pro team at this point. He played regularly his true frosh year at Michigan, then started all but one of the 29 games UM played in his soph and junior year, years in which Michigan was winning Big Integer and National titles. He doesn't have a ton of NFL experience sure, but that's how it works now--there's no more sitting behind vets for 2-3 years (unless it's the Packers)--you have to be ready to play right away. For example, compare JJM to Jaxson Dart, who is younger, and did not get to absorb the playbook for a year, and plays for a much worse team, and is still decidedly outperforming JJM--better completion %, yards/attempt, TDs, INTs, QB rating, and fewer sacks. You're telling me that the now fired Brian Daboll is apparently better at creating an offense friendly to a young QB than supposed Master QB whisperer KOC? I think the big issue, that just isn't being addressed here, is that JJM and KOC just don't seem to be a good fit stylistically. JJM is at his best when a dominant defense puts him in plus field position, and an elite run game keeps him well in front of the sticks, while giving him simplified looks and plenty of man coverage. That's not what this Vikings team is built to do, and based on where KOC has coached, and how he calls his games, I don't think that's what he wants to do either. It's possible JJM can still be a competent NFL QB (don't think he'll be any better than that--he's basically a match for the first 4 years of Bryce Young), but not unless he gets away from KOC, or KOC puts his ego aside, and lets Wes Phillips put together a plan that works for JJM.
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Did McCarthy Just Save The Season?
Cap'n Piranha replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
The Vikings started 3 of their 5 scoring drives on the DET 26, 35, and 36, accounting for 17 of the 27 points. McCarthy had a net 116 yards passing, completed only 56% of his passes, averaged only 3.9 yards/attempt, and got 5 first downs from penalties. I think it's much more accurate to say having Aaron Jones back (78 yards on 9 carries) fueled the run game (142 yards at 4.9/carry), which combined with a defense buoyed by the return of AVG that held the Lions to 15 first downs and 305 total yards and great special teams play (61 yard return, blocked FG with return) drove the win. This feels like a quintessential JJM game at Michigan--don't make mistakes and get out of the defense and running game's way. If the team was so anti-Wentz that they all decided to stop giving their best for 5 weeks, only to get a fire lit by the return of JJM is an accurate statement, then that's a big indictment on KOC to not be able to get his team up to play. Before this gets taken as an anti-JJM post, I continue to hope he can develop. But by any objective metric, he is not even a competent QB at this point, and barring the defense turning into the 85 Bears or 00 Ravens, you can't win 3/4 games in the postseason with this level of QB play. -
What does the Gardner trade have to do with Kwesi and KOC? I kid, I kid. Kinda.
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Any time you beat DET on the road, and it's not one of those gimmicky wins (like the refs being insanely one-sided, or the other team losing 5 fumbles), you have to take notice. That was a game we all thought would be ugly, and not only was it not, but the Vikes got the win. What's important now is what happens next; was this a classic "the NFL makes no sense game", and pretty quickly the Vikings go back to bad offense and a defense that tires at the end due to being on the field too much? Or was this a corner turned, and there's a path to 10-11 wins? Clearly, JJM is going to have to better--you're not going to consistently win in the NFL with a 56% completion rate and barely 10 yards per completion. On defense, it's abundantly clear that unless Greenard and AVG are both out there, our defense is not reliable--here's hoping they can both be healthy the rest of the way, because the drop-off to Turner is precipitous. Let's see how next Sunday goes against a team with a rest advantage, and on paper, an ability to run the ball right at us. A victory over the Ravens would go a long way towards raising my confidence level, and especially if JJM handles success better than the last time (ATL out of the CHI game, although having a newborn might have contributed there).
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Yup, only wins are against a Bears team in their 1st game in a new regime, a Bengals team that just lost it's star QB and played maybe the worst offensive game in NFL history, and a Browns team that is completely dysfunctional (with the massive travel advantage baked in). I'm not willing to say there's no hope left for this year, but we're getting really close to that point, and the upcoming gauntlet of games (@DET, BAL, CHI, @GB, @SEA), I'm much more inclined to think the Vikings will be 3-9 than at/above .500; in other words, 0-5 in the next 5 weeks is more likely I think than 3-2.
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This doesn't get mentioned enough, Kwesi spent 2 offseasons getting a bad cap situation back under control--and then immediately undid all of that. The Vikings are 32nd in cap space for 2026, 29th in 2027, and 23rd in 2028. When your only path to improvement is big signings in FA, and you have essentially no ability to do that for 2 more years, and you're already not a playoff team... It's not hard to see where this is going unless you insist on Ostrichism.
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Did we watch the same game last night? Outgained 419 yards to 164. 29 first downs to 12. 39 TOP to 21. 7.9 Y/Pass to 3.6. 4.8 Y/Rush to 3.1. And before you pull the O-line health excuse, remember that LA played without their best lineman last night (Slater) and lost another partway through the game, and still destroyed our defense, which is supposedly the best part of our team. Let's also not pretend like McCarthy is a lock to be even a competent QB, let alone a good one. There's a lot more tape that shows a bad QB than shows a good one. Your point is fair, the Vikings probably would never be a 0 loss team, but they're much, much closer to 1-6 than 5-2, and still have the most difficult schedule in the NFL coming up. The team could play significantly better, and still pretty easily lose 4-6 more games (would anyone be shocked if there were 4 losses across the 8 following games--Det x2, GB x2, Sea, Was, Chi, Bal)?
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Definitely true. No team has ever improved by getting high draft picks and using those to draft the stars that lead them to playoff contention and superbowls.
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It's too early to call for the blowup...yet. McCarthy needs to start the next 10 games unless he is actually injured, which means he's going to need to play hurt at some point. Far and away the most important thing for the future of the Vikings is finding out if McCarthy is an actual decent NFL QB; that is more important than making the playoffs this year. If it turns out he's making strides, and you feel like you have your guy, then do everything you can to build around him. If he's not, then you go scorched Earth, commit to the tank, and let a new GM draft a QB at 1:1 in April 2027 after you spent the 2026 draft building infrastructure on the O-Line; as an ND fan, I'm hoping for CJ Carr.
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I honestly am starting to think that there is a Spielman/Zimmer level rift between KOC and KAM. I don't think KOC ever wanted McCarthy--here's what I think went down. KAM trades for the Texans 2024 first well before the draft as a gambit to move up to select Drake Maye. He either didn't verify with the Patriots what they would want for 1-3, or didn't make the trade with the Texans conditional upon completing a trade with NE for 1-3, which sent KAM into panic mode, forced him to take JJ, and started the rift. After the 2025 season, KOC wants a veteran QB; whether that's retaining Darnold or Jones, or bringing in Rodgers, KOC doesn't want McCarthy as his starter. To force KOC's hand, KAM trades Howell just before the season starts, and signs a washed up journeyman in Wentz to be the backup. McCarthy plays the quarter of his life against the Bears, but has been truly awful in every other quarter--he's averaging barely 30 yards passing a quarter outside of that 4th quarter. When McCarthy mentions he's hurt, KOC sees his chance--he insists on the longest possible recovery timeline, and then holds him out even when he could play.
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They have done a lot of stuff right. Unfortunately none of it matters at all if you can't be at least average in drafting. The complete incompetence of the Kwesi regime in drafting has negated everything else.
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Is Kwesi in charge of the drafting process? Do all 50 of those people roll up to him? Is it his job to synthesize all the data he's given, and make the ultimate decision on which player to select? I remember hearing you're a lawyer, so imagine a scenario where a paralegal or research assistant gives you a brief, which you use in court. That brief gets ripped to shreds, and causes you to lose your case. Your senior partner calls you into his office and asks why you lost that case, and why you used a bad brief; do you think saying "I can't be held responsible for the information I was given by someone else" will fly with him? If the drafts are bad, it's either because Kwesi is getting bad information and can't identify that it's bad, has a bad drafting staff and hasn't fixed it, or just doesn't care that he's getting bad info. You are correct that the Vikings with Kwesi as GM are 37-20; although if you won't blame him for objectively bad drafts, I'm not sure how you can credit him for on-field results--certainly that credit should be better attributed to the coaching staff and players? If you want to say Kwesi gets credit because he brought those players in, then you have to acknowledge that he has failed to bring in sufficient players through the draft, which is why he's had to splurge in FA. That 37-20 record is also built on consistently beating non-playoff teams (26-6 through 2024) while consistently losing to playoff teams (8-13 including the playoff games in 2022 and 2024). That has carried through this year, where the Vikings have played 2 teams currently in the playoffs, and lost to both of them (Steelers and Eagles). So Kwesi has built a team that seems like the best of the non-playoff teams, or the worst of the playoff teams. Excuse me for wanting more. Given that winning percentage against playoff teams, the Vikings have a 5% chance of winning 3 straight games in the playoffs, or a 2% chance of winning 4. Not great odds to win a superbowl. The fact that you think the draft is not important in modern football makes me wonder if you're even following the NFL at all. Name me the last team that won a superbowl, or even played in one, based mostly on free agents. Far and away the most important thing for any organization is to be good at drafting, and that is the exact thing that Vikings have been worst at under Kwesi. The team has young guys sure, but that doesn't mean they're good. The young QB has been bad so far, and while he could still get better, he also might not. The young edge is mostly a non-factor, and given the capital required to get him, looks like one of the worst busts in Vikings history. The young LT is already 26 (meaning he's no longer young), the young RB is 26 (meaning he's no longer young, especially for an RB), the young LG is 69th out of 114 guards in PFF, the young WR (I assume you mean Addison) might get traded this offseason because the Vikings can't afford the big extension he will surely want, the young IDL (I assume you mean TID, Williams, LDR, and Redmond) have combined for 46 tackles and 4 sacks in 6 games, not to mention Redmond is 26 and LDR is 25, so not exactly young. I find it interesting that your defense of Turner is that he's played a lot on a good defense, as if that somehow makes him good. He's 68th out of 113 Edges in PFF--not great. Reichard is obviously great, but Nailor in his last 23 games has 41 receptions; you think a guy in his 3rd/4th season who can't even get to 2 receptions a game (despite the fact that he should be open constantly given the attention Jefferson/Addison get) is a good pick? He's going to be off the team next year, because why in the world would the Vikings pay him for that production? If he was such a good pick, why did the Vikings panic-trade a 4th rounder for a washed Adam Thielen in August, as opposed to just use him as their 2nd WR for 3 games? So in short, the young players you mention are all either not particularly good, not particularly young, or not particularly likely to be on the team long term, with the possible exception of JJ and Turner. The team is not set up for the future, and the only reason they've managed to win games in the past couple of years (hitting on their FA signings) is a well that has now run dry, since the Vikings are already over the 2026 cap (pending the increase); the Vikings in fact have the most money committed to players next year of any team in the NFL, and are therefore in the worst position to add talent in FA. I find it much more likely that the Vikings have a new GM/Coach 3 years from now than a Lombardi.
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I'm honestly not sure what the difference would be between scouting an NFL player vs a college player, other than NFL players are playing against other NFL players, so there's less need to project future development. If that is truly where this is all breaking down, that Kwesi has just been really bad at determining how players will transition to the pros, then yes, he should surrender any role in drafting. I assume however making that statement will lead the Wilfs ask Kwesi an Office Space question
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Has Kwesi though? From what I've heard, it's Flores that identifies the defensive players and tells Kwesi who to get; at that point, it's more a Brzezinski thing I would think. If that's inaccurate, definitely let me know, but if it accurate, then Kwesi really doesn't deserve credit for Greenard, AVG, or Cashman. However, even if Kwesi is the guy driving the FA bus, it's not enough to offset true ineptitude in drafting. If Kwesi was just ok at drafting, that can be made up in FA to some degree, but Kwesi is at a point where the only pick from Day 1 or Day 2 that looks like a competent NFL player is Addison, and he might need to be traded. When the second best pick you've made in 4 drafts is a 6th round kicker...that's horrifically bad drafting. It seems much more logically consistent to me to say Kwesi is not good at identifying talent either in FA or the draft, and has managed to get through thanks to having an on-field coach who is good at identifying talent.
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There's a decent chance Kwesi is gone this offseason, unless the Vikings can figure out how to get to the playoffs. Since Kwesi took over, the Lions have passed us in organizational quality, and there's a chance the Bears might be doing the same (not saying they are, just saying the Bears might finally be getting organizationally right. It also sounds like the defensive players Kwesi has brought in the last two years are mostly based on Flores identifying them, so if Kwesi doesn't draft well, and he's not identifying talent to sign in free agency, what exactly is he doing?
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No, this can't be accurate. I've been assured that KOC is the QB whisperer, and an elite offensive mind. No way that his hand-picked QB is the weak link.
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All of this is exhibit A for why Kwesi needs to be gone--his inability to draft, coupled with the disastrous decision to give up 7 picks in return for Dallas Turner and LDR has robbed this team of sorely needed cheap talent. That's why the Vikings HAD to go cheap at the most important position, despite having the oldest team in the NFL in 2024, and 5th oldest in 2025 (read--the window is now). If Kwesi hadn't whiffed on almost every pick he's made, or at least had 5 more cheap players on this team, maybe the QB decision could have been made for a reason other than money.

