Cap'n Piranha

You're right, there were no good options. That includes Rogers, who due to pitching on Monday, was also not a good option. So maybe Alcala, or Thielbar, or Colome blows the lead just the same, but at least then Rogers is available tonight. As it is, we have now pitched Duffey and Rogers two days in a row, so our good options tonight are...Robles? This bodes ill for our chances in a close game tonight; those chances would be better if Rogers was available, but instead we used him in a situation in which it was predictable he would not be good. The upshot is that we traded tonight's potentially good Rogers appearance for last nights predictably bad Rogers appearance. Seems less than smart.

I agree in part with this. There's not much you can do when 7-8 guys all regress at the same time, and that is not all on the FO. That being said, for this bullpen to work Colome, Rogers, and Duffey all needed to hold off regression, while at least two out of Stashak/Alcala/Thielbar/Robles stepped up to become legitimate 7th/8th inning guys. That's a lot of wishcasting just to have a good-not-great bullpen, so I think the FO bears some responsibility for making a mostly-downside, little-upside plan for the pen.

This is pretty much correct, but I would go further as well. If you're going to pull your starter in the 6th or earlier, you can't immediately go to one of your 3 best guys unless it's a must win game. Thielbar/Alcala/Colome et al have to be used in the 6th and 7th, and Rogers/Duffey/Robles can only be used in the 8th or 9th. If you're going to expect your bullpen to pitch 600+ innings in a year, then the price of that is giving 200 to 300 innings to average to bad relievers. The only way around that is to have 7 or 8 good guys, or to carry 2 long guys at all times.

Then we don't have J.A. Happ, and Dobnak and his 8.16 ERA are in the starting rotation. Does that really make us a better team?

I'm not saying it isn't worth it to kick the tires on Greene, but a guy who struck out less than 7 per 9 last year, had an xFIP- of 107 (tied for 120th out of 173 relievers last year, not for nothing, but Sergio Romo in 2020 was at 110, ranking 129th), and a SIERA of 4.51 (tied for 131st; Romo was at 3.82, ranking 79th) isn't going to move the needle on this bullpen. After all, if we were told we could add 2020 Sergio Romo to this pen right now, would any of us be excited about that? Add in that Greene will probably need 2-4 weeks minimum to get ramped up to game shape, and I don't think Greene does anything for you that you can't get from someone in St Paul. What will actually make this bullpen work is to have either a bullpen alpha (to handle every 9th inning), allowing Rogers, Duffey, and Robles to handle the 7th and 8th. Failing that, we need 2-3 guys at the Rogers/Duffey/Robles level, and I'm not sure Greene counts as one of those.

The most frustrating thing about Rogers is Rocco's insistence on using him on back to back days. We have 3+ years of data now that says Rogers is a diminished pitcher when pitching on zero days rest. 2018 Without rest--12.2 IP, 10 k/9, 6.4 bb/9, .7 hr/9, 3.55 ERA, 4.05 FIP With rest--55.2 IP, 10 k/9, 1.1 bb/9, .3 hr/9, 2.43 ERA, 1.75 FIP 2019 Without rest--15 IP, 12.6 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 3 hr/9, 7.20 ERA, 6.03 FIP With rest--54 IP, 11.5 k/9, .7 bb/9, .5 hr/9, 1.33 ERA, 1.49 FIP 2020/2021 Without rest--5.1 IP, 8.4 k/9, 0 bb/9, 3.4 hr/9, 5.07 ERA, 6.10 FIP With Rest--26.1 IP, 10.9 k/9, 1.7 bb/9, .7 hr/9, 3.08 ERA, 2.23 FIP The trends are quite clear--with the exception of the 2020/2021 SSS, Rogers' walk rate explodes on no rest. Even in the 2020/2021 SSS, his HR rate explodes on no rest. This is supposed to be an analytical team that believes in the benefits of rest--it baffles me that Rogers can even be considered an option on no rest.

Jorge Alcala in his career against lefties; 15.2 k/9 (Amazing!) 6.75 bb/9 (Ugh) 2.34 WHIP (Ugh) 1.178 OPS against (Ugh) 8.14 FIP (Ugh)

For those keeping score, Eddie Rosario is costing the Indians $8M this year. He currently has a .603 OPS on a .267 OBP and .337 SLG, with a 68 wRC+. He makes hard contact less than a third of the time, and is still swinging at 42% of pitches outside of the zone, all while being a negative defensively. I think we made the right decision to go to Kiriloff/Arraez.

I hope Nick has a great career, and makes us forget about the fact we could have drafted Trea Turner in his place.

It should be noted that the stats Ted gave were prior to yesterday's game. As such, Sano is now up to .100/.308/.250, with a 23.1% walk rate and a 34.6% k rate (both career bests). When Sano's babip normalizes (its still at .176), he will be perfectly serviceable.

We should definitely sit the guy with a .599 OPS despite a .176 babip in order to get more PA's for the guy with a .451 OPS despite a .444 babip.

This is an old and tired stereotype of the Ryan era Twins that no longer holds water, and actually stopped holding water towards the end of the Ryan era anyways. See below for a list of current/former Twins, and the age at which they debuted. Sano--22 Polanco-22 (technically 20, but his first significant stint came when he was 22) Arraez--22 Rosario--23 Kepler--23 Buxton--21 Berrios--22 Players who do well in the minors get pushed to the majors quickly. There is no similarly long list of players who were tearing up AA/AAA at 21/22/23, and yet didn't make the majors until 25.

This. This is the problem with Rocco, who I think is good, except for anything that happens at the ballpark on the day a game is played. He seems to lack a feel for the game, as well as the attribute of anticipation. As Aggies said, why not tell Robles to start warming as soon as the Twins make the third out in the bottom of the 7th, but do so leisurely? If Pineda cruises in the 8th, you can sit him down, and treat it like a side session. If Pineda gives up a hit, you go have a conference at the mound for a minute while Robles accelerates his warm up, and then bring him in after chatting about the weather until the ump forces you to make a move. As concerns Shoemaker, I think people's issue was that Shoemaker seemingly got a longer leash than Maeda and Berrios had earlier in the season, despite not pitching more than 80 innings since 2016. That's the kind of guy where once you're past the fourth, you act immediately at the first sign of trouble.

Miguel Sano first pitch strike percentage: 2019--56.5% 2020--59.5% 2021--68.8% Career--58.1% Willians Astudillo first pitch strike percentage: 2019--64.7% 2020--75.0% 2021--85.7% Career--68.3% Think that's because of Astudillo swinging at all the first pitches, turning balls into stikes? Miguel Sano percent of pitches in the zone 2019--39.1% 2020--38.1% 2021--35.3% Career--41.2% Willians Astudillo percent of pitches in the zone 2019--40.3% 2020--36.6% 2021--50.9% Career--40.6% So no, Astudillo is not getting way more balls to start his at bats.

Couldn't agree more. When curfews must be imposed, sports should not occur. If the statement from the Twins had referenced only public safety, no rational person would find this political.

It's political because it clearly assumes a specific narrative. After all, the game would not have been cancelled had this incident not occurred, even though 2 other people also died in gunfire last night. Why does the death of this individual, mentioned by name in the press release, matter more than the death of those two other individuals, to the point of warranting postponement of regularly scheduled events? The answer is clearly because it's assumed that a white cop gunned down a black person for little/no reason whatsoever, a conclusion that (although possible) can't possibly be drawn right now. As such, the Twins organization is supporting a specific narrative that millions disagree with, and has largely metastasized along party lines--it is clear which side of the line the Twins have chosen to be on, as is their right as an organization. That said, it is political, and a non-political path could easily have been taken, for example if the release was something along the lines of the below; "The Minnesota Twins are aware of an incident between an office of the law and a citizen that ended in the citizen's death. We are further aware of reactions to this incident, as well as the ongoing trial of Derek Chauvin, that we believe have created an unsafe environment for our players, staff, and fans. We urge everyone to demonstrate respect for the justice system, and to allow a full investigation of the incident to be conducted before any conclusions are formed."

This is true. Colome should be able to go one inning, giving up 2 or less runs. My frustration comes from the assumption that because the 6th inning is potentially the highest leverage situation in the game, it should be treated as such. Some times it will be, often times it won't be. Not an assumption you were making, but other posters were.

It's not though. If the criteria for determining if the best bullpen guys "did their job" is that they have to collectively pitch to a sub-2 ERA, we're setting ourselves up to be disappointed. We had 3 runs in after 5, meaning we had 4 more innings to tack on; if Baldelli doesn't think our offense is capable of putting up a run every other inning, on average, than we have much bigger problems than the bullpen. My thought then, is that assuming you needed to run your best guys out there, consecutively, for 4 straight innings just to get to the ninth, is a mistake, and is akin to trying to win a marathon by being in front after the first 100 meters.

A few thoughts; I get not bringing in Dobnak in the 5th, with a couple on (although with those two at first and second, a groundball pitcher who can hopefully get you a DP ball seems like a good idea). What I don't get is not bringing him in to start the 6th and get you an inning or two. If Rocco is going to use up his best options in the 5th and 6th of every game we're up by one or down by one, we're going to have a gassed bullpen by June. At some point, your "lesser" options have to do more than eat innings in blowouts, and if the organization doesn't trust them to do that, they shouldn't be rostered. I have to disagree with the whole "if the best pitchers do their job, you wouldn't need extras" argument. Yesterday, the Twins bullpen before Colome gave up 0 runs in 3.2 IP. If they give up one run in that stretch instead, and Buxton doesn't hit his homer, it still goes to extras, with the pen x Colome posting an ERA of 2.45 for the day, which would be the best bullpen ERA in the entire league for any of the past 5 years.

My Prediction; Luis Arraez becomes a national sensation when he enters the month of August hitting .392. He "fades" down the stretch, and ends up at "only" .374, running away with the batting title. In December, it's announced that the Twins and Arraez have agreed on a 7 year, $65M, contract with a team option worth $15M.

That is his career Spring Training batting average (you can tell because it shows him as having AB's with ATL in 2016, and with the Twins in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. In reality, his career BA is .294, with a .747 OPS and a 97 wRC+. Astudillo certainly is not a bad hitter, but he's not a particularly good one either. That is perfectly acceptable for a guy who is 12th or 13th in your lineup, and can play 3-5 positions without being a total embarrassment, especially when he is beloved by the rest of the team and one of the positions he can not be an embarrassment at is catcher.

For their (admittedly short) careers, Garlick has an .845 OPS against lefties, and Cave has an .803 OPS against righties--call it an .820 OPS on average. Since the beginning of 2019, amongst all outfielders with more than 400 PA's, that places 40th, ahead of such "name" players as Mike Tauchman, Whit Merrifield, Eddie Rosario, and Yasiel Puig. It's also only .008 behind the Dodger's third best outfielder, A.J. Pollock, so give your worry about the Twins outfield above, let me ask you this--how would you characterize a Dodger's outfield where Pollock falls off an age-related cliff, and Betts gets hurt?

Kyle Garlick has 40 AAA homers in 645 AAA PA's, or a homer every 16.1 PA's (granted, in the more hitter friendly PCL). Brent Rooker has 14 AAA homers in 274 AAA PA's, or a homer every 19.6 PA's To quantify league impact, in 2019 there was a homer every 26.3 PA's in the PCL, compared to a homer every 30.4 PA's in the International League, so homers were 13.5% more frequent in the PCL than the IL. However, Garlick hit homers 17.9% more frequently than Rooker. Sure, Garlick is also older by not quite 3 years, and so was in his age 27 season, but Rooker was also in his age 24 season--he wasn't some 21 year old facing pitchers 4-5 years older than him. To sum up, while I think Rooker probably has better power potential than Garlick, it's not like Garlick is Luis Arraez there. When you also look at spring training stats (which are relevant when discussing two young players without proven MLB track records), Garlick posted a .987 OPS with 5 HR's and a 28% k rate, while Rooker was at .645 with 1 HR and a 48% k rate. Rooker will almost assuredly get more career PA's with the Twins over his career than Garlick will in his, but starting the season with Garlick and not Rooker is a good decision, imo.

It's a bit much to suggest the FO that oversees a team that has gone 137-85 over it's past 222 games isn't making good moves. Perhaps you meant splashy move, but that should not be confused with good (btw, signing Donaldson would also count as a splashy move). Also, on June 1, 2019, the Twins were 39-18 (111 win pace), had a 10.5 game lead in the Central, and the best record in baseball. On August 14, 2020 (about a third of the way through the season), the Twins had a 12-7 record (102 win pace), had a 1.5 game lead in the Central, and tied for the 6th best record in baseball. I think the FO knows early season games count.

For sure defensive metrics are suspect right now, it will be interesting to see how that normalizes over this year. And given his young age, Lux absolutely can turn into a very valuable player. My comments were more around if both Seager and Taylor were hurt, and Lux moved to short, the depth chart showed the dominos creating a hole in the outfield. If Lux didn't pick it up, that would give the Dodgers a bottom 3 in their order of a not-performing Lux, a AAAA outfielder, and the pitcher--not exactly ideal for a team hoping to repeat as WS champs. Clearly, the situation is not so desperate as all that, so thanks for the clarification!