Cap'n Piranha

Well first off, while WPA is an interesting stat, it's still a flawed one, and lacks the context of what happened later in the game in terms of the only stat that really matters--wins. I'm sure Duran got a nice little boost to his WPA today; the Twins still lost. I'm not so sure that anyone is saying using him in the 6th was inconceivable--I think what Aggies and I are saying is that it lacks common sense and an understanding of the realities of baseball. Duran would have faced approximately the same hitters in innings 8 and 9 as he did in 6 or 7--therefore there is no argument to be made that Rocco used him at the right moment, because the exact same moment was all but guaranteed to happen again, only later in the game, and therefore in a higher leverage situation (which should be very relevant to you if you like WPA as a stat, since the best way a relief pitcher can accumulate WPA is to get a lot of saves in 1-run games, or come into situations with runners on). Agreed that the source of all this is that the Twins bullpen is very leaky right now, and until Falvine commits to having 3-4 "surefire" options in the pen at the start of the year, that's just going to be a reality when the organizational philosophy on bullpens to start the year is to find a bunch of low-priced, somewhat unproven options, and see which ones stick.

Is this a genuine wondering, or are you just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative? Other guys can of course get outs, they're just less likely to do it without giving up runs. So since you have to pitch them anyways, pitch them first to find out how they perform. If they don't give up runs, fantastic, you have Duran available to nail down the 8th and 9th, and secure the win. If they do give up runs, you don't need to waste a Duran outing in a loss. If the Twins offense puts up runs, you don't need to waste a Duran outing in a not-close game. The entire strategy is to only use Duran when using him goes the furthest to guaranteeing you a win. When the 6th inning started, Rocco should have assumed he'd be looking at batters 8-6 or 9-7 in the 8th and 9th, and rather than waiting to see if a Duran outing was necessary (will still using him against the Tiger's best hitters), he used him against what he had to assume was 1-7 or 8, leaving not great options to handle the assumed 8-6 or 9-7 slate of hitters. Rocco wasted one of the 50-60 outings Duran can make this year, because the Twins did not get the win, an outcome that should have been easy to predict as eminently possible.

I want him to use our best arm when using our best arm most advances our prospects for securing wins. Think of it this way--Duran can only appear so many times this year (especially if you want him to be effective in a potential postseason run). As such, every loss he appears in is a waste, and reduces the number of wins he can help you secure. If Duran hadn't pitched for two days, but the Twins were losing 9-1 in the 6th, would you bring Duran in, because after all, we want to use our best arms? To make a comparison, look no further than Buxton. Buxton this year has a 179 wRC+ against lefties, and 98 against righties--since you need to rest him, rest him against righties; use Buxton where using him does the team the most good. Using Duran early in a game against the same hitters he would have faced later in the game does not do the team the most good. Since there's a risk the less competitive arms will implode, find that out first, then use your best arms (since you have to use your less competitive arms). That is the entire crux of what I'm saying--since the non-Duran options in the pen needed to get 6 outs at minimum, whether you used Duran or not, find out first what's going to happen in those 6 outs, before you use your best guy in what might be a losing effort.

It baffles me that this keeps getting missed. Assuming one baserunner an inning (by the way, we would all be THRILLED if the Twins bullpen had a WHIP of one), the 9th inning would have featured the 4-7 hitters, meaning Pagan would get 9-3 in his inning. Essentially Rocco's plan today was to have Pagan face the top of the order in the 8th, unless things went perfectly. Much more logical to let Duran start his day in the 8th.

Joe Smith in May gave up a .344/.382/.563/.945 slash while inducing 0% soft contact. The league in May had a .240/.311/.386/.697 slash; essentially, in May, Joe Smith faced nothing but Bryce Harper. Are you sure you want to categorize Joe Smith a good reliever right now?

The hitters who appear in the 6th inning are guaranteed to appear in the 9th inning at the latest. Most teams have OBPs of at least .250, and most pitchers have WHIPs above 1. A two inning Duran outing in the 8th and 9th is almost guaranteed to include at least 4-5 of the hitters he faced in the 6th and 7th. As such, saying Rocco used his best reliever against the Tigers best hitters is inaccurate by omission; Rocco used his best reliever against the Tiger's best hitters in a lower leverage situation than those same same hitters were almost guaranteed to appear in. I do not understand why this concept is so hard for people to grasp. Your best reliever should never be used in the 6th or earlier, because you will need him to shut down the other teams' hitters in the 8th or 9th. The only exception is if you have a bullpen like the 2016 Indians, who could use Andrew Miller whenever because they had Allen and Shaw to lock down the 8th and 9th. This just in; the 2022 Twins bullpen lacks and Allen and/or Shaw.

Very bad logic here. If Duran pitched the 8th and 9th today, he would have faced hitters 7-3; unless, in some unprecedented occurrence, the Twins relievers in innings 6 and 7 gave up a baserunner or two. I would bet that had Duran pitched the 8th and 9th today, the most likely slate of hitters he would face is 9-5, followed by 1-6, and then 8-4. So essentially no difference, other than the Twins would better know if they needed Duran or not, based on having 28% more information going into the 8th than going into the 6th.

Gross mischaracterization of my argument. I'm not assuming the lead is held in the 6th and 7th, nor am I assuming it is blown. I'm saying the pen other than Duran is less reliable at holding leads, so I want to see if they will be able to hold the lead before I use up my only reliable option in Duran. I don't want to use Duran if the team is trailing. I don't want to use Duran if the team is going to lose--since that can't be known in advance, the best way to do that is to let Duran close out the game, unless there is a compelling reason not to (such as batters 2-4 due up in the 8th--I mentioned in a previous post that I would be in favor of that).

Not using Duran in games you're likely to lose is preferable. As you point out, someone has to get the other outs. If you cannot rely on someone to get those other outs, then responsible bullpen management dictates you find out first how reliable those other options will be. Using today's game as an example, say Jax comes in, gives up a single, but gets the other 3 outs. Then say Pagan comes in for the 7th, gives up a double then a walk, but gets the other 3 outs. Now you can have Duran pitch the 8th and 9th (where he will face the exact same slate of hitters he actually faced in the 6th and 7th today), and get the win. As opposed to what happened today, where you used up Duran, rendering him unavailable for tomorrow's game, and in a losing effort. It's like if you have plans to meet a friend for dinner, but this friend has a habit of cancelling at the last minute. Are you going to get in your car, drive across town, and sit down at the restaurant before checking to see if he's still coming, or after?

Then by your own definition, it mattered not at all that the Twins pitched Duran in the 6th/7th, and Pagan in the 8th; the opposite would have been exactly the same. Given that, why are you spending so much time debating this?

Not particularly logical, actually. As you've argued, hitters don't perform better whether they're trailing or not, so what does it matter if the lead gets coughed up in the 6th or the 8th? Indeed, let's say the offense does score 4 runs across the 7th and 8th, and it's now a 6-1 game--wouldn't it have been better to save Duran for another day, even if lesser arms would have given up 2 runs in his innings? After all, if Rocco doesn't trust his lesser arms to pitch to 9 ERAs, why are they on the roster? The logic is crystal clear--when you only have one good bullpen option, save it for when it has the most impact on securing a win. Pitching Duran in the 6th and 7th today only has an impact on the Twins winning if either the bullpen shuts the Tigers out in the 8th and 9th, or the offense score more runs. If the bullpen other than Duran doesn't shut out the Tigers for 2 innings, then the Twins lose. If the offense score more, you don't need Duran to protect the one run lead in the 6th/7th. That's the point I'm making--since the non-Duran members of the bullpen needed to get 6 outs today, have them get the first 6 outs, and you can then see if there's any point to pitch Duran. If it's still 2-1 in the 8th, bring on Duran. If the pen implodes and it's 2-6, now you can save Duran. If the offense gets it in gear, and now it's 5-1, you can save Duran. When dealing with a shaky pen with only one good option, Jack Sparrow gives good advice--"Wait for the Opportune Moment". I don't care about using Duran when the team is winning. I care about using him when the team is winning, and using him (assuming he doesn't give up runs) guarantees or all but guarantees the win. If Alcala comes back and slings it, and the Twins swing a trade for another great bullpen option, then I have no problem using Duran whenever. I just don't understand the point of using Duran for only half of the outs left in the game when using him at the end of the game still means he'll face some, probably most, and potentially all of the same batters he's facing earlier in the game.

So from this we can glean that if given the option between being down 3-2 in the 7th, and 3-2 in the 9th, you would have no hesitation to pick the latter, since it makes no difference? Is your argument here that Pagan is a superior pitcher to Duran, at least when it comes to the 8th and 9th? If you're also going to use the SSS stats above you should probably mention that 3 of those ER for Duran came in the 8th of a game against Boston the Twins were winning 6-1, and Duran was there to eat innings in literally his third ever big league appearance.

I was absolutely befuddled when I checked Gameday, and saw Archer was pulled after 57 pitches; in innings 4 and 5, he faced the minimum, giving up one single (that runner was thrown out trying to stretch to a double), and all on 19 pitches. 3rd time through the order be darned, when a pitcher is going like that, you let him keep going, but have him on a short leash--it's not like it's hard to buy a reliever 5 minutes to warm up if you need to. Tell Archer to walk around the mound between every pitch, then have the pitching coach go talk to him, then signal the catcher to have a conference, then have the manager go out to chat for 30 seconds before taking the ball.

Since Duran is the only reliable option right now, I'd rather see him not pitch in games the Twins lose, so he can be saved for games the Twins win (in large part because he shut the door in the 8th/9th inning). That did not happen today.

The argument is that information is good. Knowing the situation is helpful. Knowing that you need to score or you will lose can indeed be of a benefit to the hitters. Perhaps you'll make different decisions knowing you're on pace to lose, as opposed to on pace to win. Also, not saying I agree with him, but the argument is not the Twins would score more if the Tigers only scored 1 in 24 outs as opposed to 3 in 24 outs. The argument is that the Twins would score more if the Tigers had score 3 in 18 outs, as opposed to 3 in 24 outs. If you disagree with the idea that it is better to fail behind early rather than late (assuming the margin is the same), what you're saying is that it is of no benefit to the home team to bat last, since the only advantage to batting last is having the knowledge of how many runs you need to score to avoid losing.

Yeah, here's the thing though--assuming that Duran faced the minimum in innings 6 and 7, batters 7-9 were due up in the eighth and 1-3 in the ninth. So Rocco chose to use by far his best bullpen option in lower leverage situations against batters that were likely/guaranteed to come up again in a higher leverage situation. If Rocco had used Duran in the 8th to face hitters 2-4, that's a no brainer. But your best relief arm should never be used in the 6th inning, since any player batting in the 6th is guaranteed to appear again in the 9th, if not sooner. Further, when you only have one truly solid option in your bullpen, you need to ensure that option is only used in games you are almost assured of winning (assuming the pitcher does his job). Today is perhaps different, if as speculated Duran will not be travelling to Toronto; otherwise, Duran is now unavailable for a game the Twins could win tomorrow, because you used him too early in a game the Twins had a decent chance of losing even with his stellar performance.

Little Nicky Punto would like a word.

Did Falvine invent a time machine, and bring 2015 Chris Archer back with them?

Love it! My favorite non-Twin ever, and possibly the second-best pure hitter of all time, in my opinion!

Even in 2022, there's still merit to "hit 'em where they ain't". Of course, analytic guys will probably respond "you know where they ain't? In the outfield seats".

Does anyone know what the patches on the Twins uniform say?

Challenge time for Rodriguez, imo. Send him up to Iowa, and see how he does. If he's the prospect we hope, having him hold his own (say a .750 OPS or better) as a 19 year old would be massive in validating that.

Yeah, I agree with this. I've never understood why it would somehow be different to hit 1st v 3rd v 5th v 8th. You're still facing the pitcher, it's still 4 balls and 3 strikes. The only difference is that since the best hitters tend to be grouped in the first half of the lineup, hitting in the first half of the lineup means it's more likely there will be runners on base. That's literally the only difference. I do think there is something to be said for having a consistent defensive alignment, and letting players play more days in a row to get in a bit of a rhythm. I haven't done the analysis to see if that's happening or not, just a general thought.

Interesting. What struck me was the idea that all knee issues are different--this means we can't definitively say what would work for Buxton; perhaps 10 days of doing leg workouts in a pool would be of benefit. Either way, unless you want to call what's happening right now just a slump, it's clear something is wrong with Buxton, and playing through it is not helping.

Agreed--it's not working. I also don't think people really have a problem with giving Buxton a day off here or there, it just shouldn't be every series. I've mentioned before that my rule of thumb is the 5 in 6 standard. If a guy can't play in 5 out of every 6 games (because of injury), then he should immediately be placed on the IL.