Brad Swanson

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I hope this gets your Sunday morning off to a good start. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3682[/ATTACH] Pro-tip! Click on the image to enlarge. Then, click the X on your browser when you are done rolling your eyes.

God save the Queen! TwinVike, I absolutely will address this question in my next mailbag. I already have some thoughts simmering...

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! What's more pathetic than a person writing questions to himself and then answering them, pretending all along that it is some hilarious endeavor or insightful method of talking about baseball? Not sure I can answer that question. Here's a (fake) mailbag instead. How do you feel about Joe Mauer batting zecond? Love the podcast. ~Brad S. (Twin Cities, MN) I don't have a podcast. Yet... Also, I assume you mean batting second. I am cool with it as long as Joe (I call him Joe, as we graduated in the same year so we're practically best friends) is cool with it. You see, Mauer getting more at bats = good. He's good at hitting and thus gets more opportunities to hit with more at bats. Joe Mauer is a better hitter than Brian Dozier. I like Dozier (mostly his eyes) but Mauer is still clearly better. In addition, Josh Willingham is a better hitter than Dozier. As is Justin Morneau, as is Ryan Doumit, as is Trevor Plouffe and so on and so forth. Once Aaron Hicks starts hitting, Mauer will get plenty of chances to drive in runs. It's all going to be just fine, at least until Morneau and Willingham are traded. Hi Brad, thanks for doing these mailbags, it's super cool of you. Recently, we found out that Johan Santana needs another shoulder surgery and might be forced to retire. This makes me sad. My questions to you: Are you sad and Is Johan Santana a Hall of Fame player? Thanks! ~Brad S. (Twin Cities, MN) Thanks for reading and writing! I am pro-literacy. First, yes, I am sad. Johan Santana was my favorite Twin of recent past. I will not soon forget his 17 strikeout game or his no-hitter that may have ruined his career (I don't believe that to be true). As to whether he is a Hall of Famer: Yes! To expand: Yes, of course! For the record, I would induct him in the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Twins' Hall of Fame, I would retire his jersey, give him a job in the front office, trust him with my financial planning AND estate planning, water his plants and vote for him for President of the U.S.A. Now, I am severely biased and I will never be given any sort of Hall of Fame vote. So, this all amounts to a hill of beans. Beans aside, I feel that Johan Santana was the best pitcher of the most recent decade. While framing a career within an arbitrary set of years is lazy and borderline useless, I don't care. Santana was great and I love him. Yes, I love him! I'm sorry everyone had to learn that in a mailbag, but it's true. I can't be rational when talking of Santana and I won't be; not for you, not for society and not for some crummy institution that doesn't even include all of the best baseball players of all time. The Hall of Fame is a joke! Tim Raines? Ty Cobb, but not Roger Clemens? Kenny Lofton fell off the ballot after one year?!? Who decided on the location?!? Cooperstown, New York of all places! That's an East Coast bias! Nixon was a patsy! Now I'm fired up! I'm going to go take this anger and frustration to the streets! I'm back; my knee hurts. Next question. Hi. I'm not a fan, but you seem to write a lot of nonsense, so I thought I would try to get you to answer a serious question. Does Trevor Plouffe wear enough eye black? ~Everyone (Minnesota) I'm not sure what this nonsense is that you speak of, but yeah, I think he does. Thoughts on the bench? ~Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Sentence fragment is a sentence fragment. I like the bench. Wilkin Ramirez is not a great hitter, but he has power. I'm enjoying the older brother thing he seems to have with some of the younger players too. Eduardo Escobar is pretty much Pedro Florimon but shorter, so that works out pretty well. Jamey Carroll is a cagey veteran who can get on base when needed. Darin Mastroianni is a great pinch runner and defensive replacement. All in all, the bench is solid. I think it is much better than benches of the recent past. B+ Hi Bret, I'm a big fan. Rank these extensions: Elvis Andrus, Justin Verlander, Buster Posey ~Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Ok, but I will do so in a bullet list, to save time: Posey - young, excellent, bat is good enough to play if he moves out from behind the plate Andrus - young, excellent, getting better, excellent fielder, improving hitter Verlander - young, but older, excellent, a pitcher - so there's risk, still awesome Do you know anything about 1989 Donruss? ~Topps Fleerscore, (Cardville, USA) You know, it's so funny that you would ask that question. I literally just wrote something about 1989 Donruss on Monday. Such great timing, thank you. Click here! Ron Washington's card alone is well worth using your mouse to click on a hyperlink and then scrolling down. The words are somewhat amusing too. Salutations. Aaron Hicks got his first MLB hit on Thursday. Who else will record their first MLB milestone of choice during this season? ~O. Arcia, (Rochester, NY) Well well well, look who reads my blog. You probably found it from Kal Daniels' Baseball Reference page like everyone else. Well, "O", I believe that Oswaldo Arcia will certainly collect his first MLB hit this season. I'll guess around August, but it could end up being sooner. I feel that Kyle Gibson will collect his first MLB win around mid-season. I believe that Chris Colabello will hit his first home run around that same time and the crowd will lose their collective s. In former Twin news, I am calling a Ben Revere over-the-fence home run as well. I mean, why not? The Phillies will celebrate by giving Ryan Howard another 40 million dollars. Thanks for the questions everyone, I have to go write a mailbag now. Have a nice weekend! Brad Swanson does not have any plans to start a podcast. He doesn't know how to play Lego. He is willing to answer actual questions, but doesn't know how to receive them. Any help would be much appreciated. Not concise, this guy.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! What's more pathetic than a person writing questions to himself and then answering them, pretending all along that it is some hilarious endeavor or insightful method of talking about baseball? Not sure I can answer that question. Here's a (fake) mailbag instead. How do you feel about Joe Mauer batting zecond? Love the podcast. ~Brad S. (Twin Cities, MN) I don't have a podcast. Yet... Also, I assume you mean batting second. I am cool with it as long as Joe (I call him Joe, as we graduated in the same year so we're practically best friends) is cool with it. You see, Mauer getting more at bats = good. He's good at hitting and thus gets more opportunities to hit with more at bats. Joe Mauer is a better hitter than Brian Dozier. I like Dozier (mostly his eyes) but Mauer is still clearly better. In addition, Josh Willingham is a better hitter than Dozier. As is Justin Morneau, as is Ryan Doumit, as is Trevor Plouffe and so on and so forth. Once Aaron Hicks starts hitting, Mauer will get plenty of chances to drive in runs. It's all going to be just fine, at least until Morneau and Willingham are traded. Hi Brad, thanks for doing these mailbags, it's super cool of you. Recently, we found out that Johan Santana needs another shoulder surgery and might be forced to retire. This makes me sad. My questions to you: Are you sad and Is Johan Santana a Hall of Fame player? Thanks! ~Brad S. (Twin Cities, MN) Thanks for reading and writing! I am pro-literacy. First, yes, I am sad. Johan Santana was my favorite Twin of recent past. I will not soon forget his 17 strikeout game or his no-hitter that may have ruined his career (I don't believe that to be true). As to whether he is a Hall of Famer: Yes! To expand: Yes, of course! For the record, I would induct him in the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Twins' Hall of Fame, I would retire his jersey, give him a job in the front office, trust him with my financial planning AND estate planning, water his plants and vote for him for President of the U.S.A. Now, I am severely biased and I will never be given any sort of Hall of Fame vote. So, this all amounts to a hill of beans. Beans aside, I feel that Johan Santana was the best pitcher of the most recent decade. While framing a career within an arbitrary set of years is lazy and borderline useless, I don't care. Santana was great and I love him. Yes, I love him! I'm sorry everyone had to learn that in a mailbag, but it's true. I can't be rational when talking of Santana and I won't be; not for you, not for society and not for some crummy institution that doesn't even include all of the best baseball players of all time. The Hall of Fame is a joke! Tim Raines? Ty Cobb, but not Roger Clemens? Kenny Lofton fell off the ballot after one year?!? Who decided on the location?!? Cooperstown, New York of all places! That's an East Coast bias! Nixon was a patsy! Now I'm fired up! I'm going to go take this anger and frustration to the streets! I'm back; my knee hurts. Next question. Hi. I'm not a fan, but you seem to write a lot of nonsense, so I thought I would try to get you to answer a serious question. Does Trevor Plouffe wear enough eye black? ~Everyone (Minnesota) I'm not sure what this nonsense is that you speak of, but yeah, I think he does. Thoughts on the bench? ~Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Sentence fragment is a sentence fragment. I like the bench. Wilkin Ramirez is not a great hitter, but he has power. I'm enjoying the older brother thing he seems to have with some of the younger players too. Eduardo Escobar is pretty much Pedro Florimon but shorter, so that works out pretty well. Jamey Carroll is a cagey veteran who can get on base when needed. Darin Mastroianni is a great pinch runner and defensive replacement. All in all, the bench is solid. I think it is much better than benches of the recent past. B+ Hi Bret, I'm a big fan. Rank these extensions: Elvis Andrus, Justin Verlander, Buster Posey ~Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Ok, but I will do so in a bullet list, to save time: Posey - young, excellent, bat is good enough to play if he moves out from behind the plate Andrus - young, excellent, getting better, excellent fielder, improving hitter Verlander - young, but older, excellent, a pitcher - so there's risk, still awesome Do you know anything about 1989 Donruss? ~Topps Fleerscore, (Cardville, USA) You know, it's so funny that you would ask that question. I literally just wrote something about 1989 Donruss on Monday. Such great timing, thank you. Click here! Ron Washington's card alone is well worth using your mouse to click on a hyperlink and then scrolling down. The words are somewhat amusing too. Salutations. Aaron Hicks got his first MLB hit on Thursday. Who else will record their first MLB milestone of choice during this season? ~O. Arcia, (Rochester, NY) Well well well, look who reads my blog. You probably found it from Kal Daniels' Baseball Reference page like everyone else. Well, "O", I believe that Oswaldo Arcia will certainly collect his first MLB hit this season. I'll guess around August, but it could end up being sooner. I feel that Kyle Gibson will collect his first MLB win around mid-season. I believe that Chris Colabello will hit his first home run around that same time and the crowd will lose their collective s. In former Twin news, I am calling a Ben Revere over-the-fence home run as well. I mean, why not? The Phillies will celebrate by giving Ryan Howard another 40 million dollars. Thanks for the questions everyone, I have to go write a mailbag now. Have a nice weekend! Brad Swanson does not have any plans to start a podcast. He doesn't know how to play Lego. He is willing to answer actual questions, but doesn't know how to receive them. Any help would be much appreciated. Not concise, this guy.

While Mauer doesn't hit a lot of fly balls to right, he does hit hard ground balls and line drives to right. Mauer isn't fast by any means, but those hits would pretty much all be triples, and anything pulled down the line could end in an inside-the-park home run. I'm all for wild shifts, but this one might be too extreme for me.

Benson is not in Rochester's Opening Day lineup. Anyone know why?

Yeah, the first guy with a perfect game and 27 Ks, with 4 HR of his own, will finally impress me. I was a bit encouraged with Plouffe today, but mostly based on his 9th inning AB. I think both guys are going to need a few weeks to get in a groove, but I have no basis for that argument.

I wouldn't mind seeing Hernandez, if it comes to that. His K:BB rate in the minors intrigues me a bit, even if I don't expect huge things from him.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Again, I don't plan to write about every game. However, I'm on Spring Break, my pregnant wife has been sleeping since 7pm and my dog doesn't want to talk to me. So, here you are. Aaron Hicks Hicks didn't look great today. He added two more strikeouts to his season total and only put one ball in play. However, I thought his lead-off walk was impressive. He laid off some really close pitches and seems to have good command of the strike zone. He takes pitches and that is important from the lead-off spot. If the guys behind him can get a look at the starter's repertoire, it really helps the rest of the lineup get a gauge on the pitcher. Having Hicks and Mauer 1-2 is going to be a great way to drive up pitch counts, especially as Hicks adjusts to the new level of competition. Kevin Correia Well, if you are going to rip a player when they are bad, you have to give credit when they are good. Correia looked good today. He changed speeds and moved the ball around. He only let Detroit string together hits in one inning and that really helped to limit potential damage. He only walked one batter, and while he only struck out two, we all knew he wasn't going to rack up large strikeout totals. Correia will likely have some rough outings if he gets hit like he did today, but he'll also have some good outings. I'm sure that Gardenhire appreciated the seven innings he gave the team today. Jared Burton and Glen Perkins While the bullpen is not deep, with these two pitchers, there is plenty of talent. Using Burton and Perkins kept today's game close and kept pitchers with much less talent from being used. While neither pitcher gets a hold or a save for this game, they both contributed greatly to this win. I think Perkins is excellent. This isn't a very saber thing to say, but he just looks confident and collected on the mound and I like to see that in a reliever. The 9th Was fun. Walk-off hits are just awesome. In that inning, I was particularly happy with Plouffe's at bat. He was facing a really tough righty in Joaquin Benoit and he worked the count nicely. After Chris Parmelee failed to move the runner over, Brian Dozier had a nice at bat of his own, shooting a pitch to right-center and getting Carroll over to third. Eduardo Escobar's double should have been a sacrifice fly, but I'll take the outfield miscue and the win that came with it. Everyone looked so pumped, it's always fun to watch a team walk-off. Other MLB Thoughts Baltimore Speaking of walk-offs, I watched the end of the Tampa Bay/Baltimore game. Matt Joyce hit a walk-off home run after Baltimore tied the game off Fernando Rodney in the top of the 9th. However, it was Baltimore that stood out to me. I really like their lineup. Adding full seasons of Brian Roberts, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Manny Machado will make their offense even more impressive. Nate McLouth belongs nowhere near the lead-off spot, but they should figure that out eventually. Their offense was only average last season, but could become an above-average offense with healthy seasons from their regulars. Kevin Slowey and Denard Span Slowey is back in the Bigs! I know Slowey is a polarizing figure for Twins' fans, but I always liked him. I mean, I named my blog after him, right? He's not consistent and he can nibble a bit, but he has great command of his pitches. Tonight, he was moving them in and out and changing speeds nicely. He was working quickly and getting outs. He actually walked three batters, which might end up being the most he walks all year. He couldn't get Denard Span out, walking him twice and giving up a double. It was fun to watch Span play again; he'll be a really nice addition in Washington. Alexi Ogando Ogando was electric on Wednesday, striking out 10 batters while walking only one in 6.1 innings. Granted, it was the Astros, but it was still impressive to watch. Now that Ogando is seemingly a full-time starter, it will be very interesting to see what he can do in a full season. He has great stuff. He and Yu Darvish could form a really dynamic pair for the next few seasons. Braves Outfield Justin Upton and Jason Heyward both hit home runs today. I still can't believe that Arizona traded Upton. He's only 25! Arizona's loss is certainly Atlanta's gain. Having Heyward in right softens the blow of moving Upton to left. Heyward is such a dynamic player and so graceful for his size. I love to watch him play. It's rare for a team to have two potential perennial MVP candidates, but Atlanta might have that with Upton and Heyward. In center, B.J. Upton had a golden sombrero tonight, but that happens. Thanks for reading my thoughts. What are your impressions of Wednesday's games?

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Again, I don't plan to write about every game. However, I'm on Spring Break, my pregnant wife has been sleeping since 7pm and my dog doesn't want to talk to me. So, here you are. Aaron Hicks Hicks didn't look great today. He added two more strikeouts to his season total and only put one ball in play. However, I thought his lead-off walk was impressive. He laid off some really close pitches and seems to have good command of the strike zone. He takes pitches and that is important from the lead-off spot. If the guys behind him can get a look at the starter's repertoire, it really helps the rest of the lineup get a gauge on the pitcher. Having Hicks and Mauer 1-2 is going to be a great way to drive up pitch counts, especially as Hicks adjusts to the new level of competition. Kevin Correia Well, if you are going to rip a player when they are bad, you have to give credit when they are good. Correia looked good today. He changed speeds and moved the ball around. He only let Detroit string together hits in one inning and that really helped to limit potential damage. He only walked one batter, and while he only struck out two, we all knew he wasn't going to rack up large strikeout totals. Correia will likely have some rough outings if he gets hit like he did today, but he'll also have some good outings. I'm sure that Gardenhire appreciated the seven innings he gave the team today. Jared Burton and Glen Perkins While the bullpen is not deep, with these two pitchers, there is plenty of talent. Using Burton and Perkins kept today's game close and kept pitchers with much less talent from being used. While neither pitcher gets a hold or a save for this game, they both contributed greatly to this win. I think Perkins is excellent. This isn't a very saber thing to say, but he just looks confident and collected on the mound and I like to see that in a reliever. The 9th Was fun. Walk-off hits are just awesome. In that inning, I was particularly happy with Plouffe's at bat. He was facing a really tough righty in Joaquin Benoit and he worked the count nicely. After Chris Parmelee failed to move the runner over, Brian Dozier had a nice at bat of his own, shooting a pitch to right-center and getting Carroll over to third. Eduardo Escobar's double should have been a sacrifice fly, but I'll take the outfield miscue and the win that came with it. Everyone looked so pumped, it's always fun to watch a team walk-off. Other MLB Thoughts Baltimore Speaking of walk-offs, I watched the end of the Tampa Bay/Baltimore game. Matt Joyce hit a walk-off home run after Baltimore tied the game off Fernando Rodney in the top of the 9th. However, it was Baltimore that stood out to me. I really like their lineup. Adding full seasons of Brian Roberts, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Manny Machado will make their offense even more impressive. Nate McLouth belongs nowhere near the lead-off spot, but they should figure that out eventually. Their offense was only average last season, but could become an above-average offense with healthy seasons from their regulars. Kevin Slowey and Denard Span Slowey is back in the Bigs! I know Slowey is a polarizing figure for Twins' fans, but I always liked him. I mean, I named my blog after him, right? He's not consistent and he can nibble a bit, but he has great command of his pitches. Tonight, he was moving them in and out and changing speeds nicely. He was working quickly and getting outs. He actually walked three batters, which might end up being the most he walks all year. He couldn't get Denard Span out, walking him twice and giving up a double. It was fun to watch Span play again; he'll be a really nice addition in Washington. Alexi Ogando Ogando was electric on Wednesday, striking out 10 batters while walking only one in 6.1 innings. Granted, it was the Astros, but it was still impressive to watch. Now that Ogando is seemingly a full-time starter, it will be very interesting to see what he can do in a full season. He has great stuff. He and Yu Darvish could form a really dynamic pair for the next few seasons. Braves Outfield Justin Upton and Jason Heyward both hit home runs today. I still can't believe that Arizona traded Upton. He's only 25! Arizona's loss is certainly Atlanta's gain. Having Heyward in right softens the blow of moving Upton to left. Heyward is such a dynamic player and so graceful for his size. I love to watch him play. It's rare for a team to have two potential perennial MVP candidates, but Atlanta might have that with Upton and Heyward. In center, B.J. Upton had a golden sombrero tonight, but that happens. Thanks for reading my thoughts. What are your impressions of Wednesday's games?

Well, it was the only run he gave up. It's not like pitchers never hit home runs.

He looked good tonight. He was working quickly, moving the ball around. He did give up a home run to Gio Gonzalez and he couldn't get Span out. Other than that, he was effective, especially considering his fastball wasn't over 90.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Anyone who has studied the mathematical or sabermetric side of baseball has certainly heard of the concept of the Three True Outcomes. Basically, when looking at the battle between a pitcher and a batter, there are three true outcomes: a walk, a strikeout and a home run. By true outcomes, we take away things like defense, park, weather, speed, etc. It was introduced by Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus back in 2000 and you can read a lot more about the idea from him, as he is a far more talented writer than I. While we may think that Ken Griffey Jr. can notice Sammy Sosa about to drink his Pepsi and then fire a line drive into the dugout to thwart him, that actually does not seem to be . While some batters are better at putting balls in play than others, controlling a "hit" is nearly impossible. If it were, some crazy, but brilliant hitter would have posted a 1.000 batting average in a season. The concept of the Three True Outcomes hitter is not new and not even all that rare. It is easy to find a big powerful dude with a good batting eye who also takes monstrous hacks. Rob Deer, Mark McGwire, Russell Branyan, Bo Jackson and Adam Dunn fit this baseball archetype. However, I want to know how rare a Three True Outcomes Game is. By that, I refer to a game where a batter gets only three plate appearances and uses them to walk, strikeout, and hit a home run, once each. Using Baseball Reference's incomparable game finder tool, I found that such a feat has happened 411 times since 1916. This equals roughly four occurrences per season. Pretty rare indeed. Frank Howard and Lance Parrish each accomplished this feat four times, which is the most of any individual player. Ok, query completed. Ok, thanks for reading! Have a nice day. Wait! Did you leave? I have decided that I need to narrow my search significantly. I realize that many of these players didn't play the full game. Dastardly! Just looking at Lance Parrish, I see that he was pinch hit for in one of those games and replaced by another catcher in two others. That snake! Those aren't Three True Outcome games. I'm pretty sure "getting pinch hit for" and "being a mediocre catcher" aren't true outcomes. Luckily for society, we can narrow the search to only include games both started and finished by players and get rid of these fakers. Upon doing so, we are left with only 165 instances, which is about 2 per season. Rarer than we thought! And with that, I have righted the wrong that Lance Parrish tried to perpetuate against all of us and I can move on with my life. Thanks for reading. Have a nice day. Wait! Sorry, one more thing. Mike Schmidt was walked intentionally in his Three True Outcomes game. That doesn't sit well with me. While it is a True Outcome to be walked intentionally, it's not a true product of the batter v. pitcher match up There were likely other factors that lead to that intentional walk. This cannot stand. Other than Mike Schmidt, there were 10 more jokers who reached their 3rd outcome in this devious fashion. Upon removing them (including personal favorite Chili Davis), we are left with just 154 true Three True Outcomes games. Handshakes and salutations all around! We have our number. Thanks again for reading. Have a nice day. Wait! Last time. I just noticed that George Harper's team won his Three True Outcomes game by a score of 11-1. How in the darn? Even with 11 solo home runs, Harper would have had to have hit 4 times. Wha happen? Well, I opened his box score and found that they only played 6 innings in that game! George Harper, you tramp! This cannot stand. I need to go in and remove these shortened games, for the good of a pure society. Ok, that took forever. But, for you, I now present the 144 instances of the Three True Outcomes Game: Link to Table I couldn't embed the table. But, the link is more fun anyway, because you can mess around with the table and do some fun sorting and stuff. Right? If you don't feel like doing fun sorting and stuff, here is some "analysis" from me: Fun Factz! (the z is a typo that I refuse to fix): Damion Easley, Frank Howard, Harold Baines, Jay Bruce, Rich Aurilia, and Ryan Langerhans each have two Three True Outcomes Games. Sean Casey, Jim Edmonds and Frank Howard are the only players with a Three True Outcomes game from the 3-hole. 12 players hit three-run home runs in their Three True Outcomes game, and 39 hit two-run home runs. Bret Boone, Rich Becker, Faye Throneberry and Alfonso Soriano added stolen bases in their Three True Outcome Game Todd Hollandsworth, Kosuke Fukudome, Jim Anderson and Ken Harrelson were caught stealing in their Three True Outcome Game. Mercy! Early Wilson, Tony Kaufmann, Urban Shocker, Dave McNally and Luis Tiant were the only pitchers to accomplish this feat. Players were 91 and 53 in these games. Clearly, a Three True Outcomes Game means your team is likely to win. (not true) Sean Casey, Billy Bryan, Harold Baines and Ron Swoboda had their Three True Outcomes Game in 1-0 wins. On September 18, 1993, Shane Spencer had the only Three True Outcomes Game that went extra innings. He was standing on deck when the winning run was scored in the 10th, saving his place in history. Local Angle! Only two Twins have had Three True Outcomes Games: Rich Becker in 1997 and Danny Goodwin in 1981. Eight players have had a Three True Outcomes Game against the Twins: Toby Harrah, Ty Wigginton, Jim Anderson, Jorge Posada, Brad Ausmus, Jim Essian, Tim Hulett and Brian Downing. Conclusion None of this nonsense means a thing, but it sure is fun. These games are exceedingly rare, with about three occurring every two seasons. Useless information? Perhaps. But really, what were you doing when you opened this page? Thanks for reading, for real this time.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Anyone who has studied the mathematical or sabermetric side of baseball has certainly heard of the concept of the Three True Outcomes. Basically, when looking at the battle between a pitcher and a batter, there are three true outcomes: a walk, a strikeout and a home run. By true outcomes, we take away things like defense, park, weather, speed, etc. It was introduced by Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus back in 2000 and you can read a lot more about the idea from him, as he is a far more talented writer than I. While we may think that Ken Griffey Jr. can notice Sammy Sosa about to drink his Pepsi and then fire a line drive into the dugout to thwart him, that actually does not seem to be . While some batters are better at putting balls in play than others, controlling a "hit" is nearly impossible. If it were, some crazy, but brilliant hitter would have posted a 1.000 batting average in a season. The concept of the Three True Outcomes hitter is not new and not even all that rare. It is easy to find a big powerful dude with a good batting eye who also takes monstrous hacks. Rob Deer, Mark McGwire, Russell Branyan, Bo Jackson and Adam Dunn fit this baseball archetype. However, I want to know how rare a Three True Outcomes Game is. By that, I refer to a game where a batter gets only three plate appearances and uses them to walk, strikeout, and hit a home run, once each. Using Baseball Reference's incomparable game finder tool, I found that such a feat has happened 411 times since 1916. This equals roughly four occurrences per season. Pretty rare indeed. Frank Howard and Lance Parrish each accomplished this feat four times, which is the most of any individual player. Ok, query completed. Ok, thanks for reading! Have a nice day. Wait! Did you leave? I have decided that I need to narrow my search significantly. I realize that many of these players didn't play the full game. Dastardly! Just looking at Lance Parrish, I see that he was pinch hit for in one of those games and replaced by another catcher in two others. That snake! Those aren't Three True Outcome games. I'm pretty sure "getting pinch hit for" and "being a mediocre catcher" aren't true outcomes. Luckily for society, we can narrow the search to only include games both started and finished by players and get rid of these fakers. Upon doing so, we are left with only 165 instances, which is about 2 per season. Rarer than we thought! And with that, I have righted the wrong that Lance Parrish tried to perpetuate against all of us and I can move on with my life. Thanks for reading. Have a nice day. Wait! Sorry, one more thing. Mike Schmidt was walked intentionally in his Three True Outcomes game. That doesn't sit well with me. While it is a True Outcome to be walked intentionally, it's not a true product of the batter v. pitcher match up There were likely other factors that lead to that intentional walk. This cannot stand. Other than Mike Schmidt, there were 10 more jokers who reached their 3rd outcome in this devious fashion. Upon removing them (including personal favorite Chili Davis), we are left with just 154 true Three True Outcomes games. Handshakes and salutations all around! We have our number. Thanks again for reading. Have a nice day. Wait! Last time. I just noticed that George Harper's team won his Three True Outcomes game by a score of 11-1. How in the darn? Even with 11 solo home runs, Harper would have had to have hit 4 times. Wha happen? Well, I opened his box score and found that they only played 6 innings in that game! George Harper, you tramp! This cannot stand. I need to go in and remove these shortened games, for the good of a pure society. Ok, that took forever. But, for you, I now present the 144 instances of the Three True Outcomes Game: Link to Table I couldn't embed the table. But, the link is more fun anyway, because you can mess around with the table and do some fun sorting and stuff. Right? If you don't feel like doing fun sorting and stuff, here is some "analysis" from me: Fun Factz! (the z is a typo that I refuse to fix): Damion Easley, Frank Howard, Harold Baines, Jay Bruce, Rich Aurilia, and Ryan Langerhans each have two Three True Outcomes Games. Sean Casey, Jim Edmonds and Frank Howard are the only players with a Three True Outcomes game from the 3-hole. 12 players hit three-run home runs in their Three True Outcomes game, and 39 hit two-run home runs. Bret Boone, Rich Becker, Faye Throneberry and Alfonso Soriano added stolen bases in their Three True Outcome Game Todd Hollandsworth, Kosuke Fukudome, Jim Anderson and Ken Harrelson were caught stealing in their Three True Outcome Game. Mercy! Early Wilson, Tony Kaufmann, Urban Shocker, Dave McNally and Luis Tiant were the only pitchers to accomplish this feat. Players were 91 and 53 in these games. Clearly, a Three True Outcomes Game means your team is likely to win. (not true) Sean Casey, Billy Bryan, Harold Baines and Ron Swoboda had their Three True Outcomes Game in 1-0 wins. On September 18, 1993, Shane Spencer had the only Three True Outcomes Game that went extra innings. He was standing on deck when the winning run was scored in the 10th, saving his place in history. Local Angle! Only two Twins have had Three True Outcomes Games: Rich Becker in 1997 and Danny Goodwin in 1981. Eight players have had a Three True Outcomes Game against the Twins: Toby Harrah, Ty Wigginton, Jim Anderson, Jorge Posada, Brad Ausmus, Jim Essian, Tim Hulett and Brian Downing. Conclusion None of this nonsense means a thing, but it sure is fun. These games are exceedingly rare, with about three occurring every two seasons. Useless information? Perhaps. But really, what were you doing when you opened this page? Thanks for reading, for real this time.

Hicks has a great eye. He and Mauer at the top of the order could really run up pitch counts.

The level a player starts at is much less important than the level they finish at. If Meyer, May, Rosario and Sano have great seasons, they'll end at higher levels. If they don't, it will justify the decision to keep them at their current starting levels. It seems to me that the Twins are willing to move players up quicker, once they have proven something in high A. Prior to that, they are cautious, and I agree with that philosophy.

Henry Blanco is still around? He's got to be 60 years old by now. He was 60 when he was 30. Nice list, always fun to see where old names pop up.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1509-Opening-Day-Thoughts

Yeah, if the Twins wanted a patient at bat, they could have used Carroll. I think Gardy wanted a big fly. Good point, he probably didn't want to strike out at all!

Thanks for posting, I always enjoy your analysis. One of my favorite qualities of research is that the results speak for themselves. You can massage the results to fit a narrative, or you can present results as they are. In this case, the batting order doesn't mean a whole lot, but the it also doesn't mean nothing. I think that moving Mauer to 2 and Dozier to 8 will have more impact on a game-by-game basis, rather than a season-long basis. This means that sample sizes will always be too small to use for predictive value, but the results of the individual games can still be impacted. Of course, you are right about the ZIPS projections. If Dozier performs better than these projections, then the move will result in even fewer runs.

I'm not going to write about every game or every day of the season. However, I watched a lot of baseball yesterday and I have some thoughts to share. I thought the Twins game went about as would have been expected, and I was happy that they made it close near the end. I don't like to get too caught up in one game, but it's just too much fun to write about baseball, so here are some thoughts. Aaron Hicks Aaron Hicks had a tough debut. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball, so it wasn't going to be easy. Hicks struck out in all three of his at bats against Verlander. I went back and watched those at bats again and I didn't see anything that worries me long-term. He fouled off some decent fastballs that he probably should have put in play, but he also seemed to get good looks at Verlander's changeup. He got fooled on a curve in the first and a fastball in the third, but most of his swings were good and he didn't seem to be seeing the ball poorly. I called his first pitch swing against Smyly in the 7th. You had to figure he wanted no part of striking out four times in his debut. He was a little out in front of the pitch, but at least he put it in play. His last at bat was encouraging, as he took a couple close pitches to work a five pitch walk. He saw a first pitch changeup in all four of his left handed at bats, and didn't swing at one. If that is the scouting report on him, hopefully he jumps on an early off-speed pitch against Anibal Sanchez on Wednesday. Vance Worley I thought Vance Worley looked great yesterday. The first inning was a bit rough, but he had some bad luck as well. That Torii Hunter single could have just as easily been a double play. Prince Fielder's double wasn't hit well either. After Hunter's lead-off double in the 3rd, Worley was pretty much lights out. He did let the lead-off batter reach in the first four innings, which is something he should not get into the habit of doing, but he was basically effective through six innings. I liked what I saw. Joe Mauer I don't have much to say here except Mauer did not seem to have an issue adjusting to his new spot in the batting order. He had two hits, and probably should have had three. He nearly tied the game in the bottom of the 8th. His approach at the plate is really something to watch. I'm a fan, that's all. Casey Fien Fien looked great. He mowed down the top of the Tigers' order and made it look pretty easy. I'm not sure this means anything long-term, but if Fien can become a reliable late-inning reliever, the Twins' bullpen could be surprisingly good. Wilkin Ramirez Ramirez made the 5,000,000th appearance in MLB history, according to Baseball Reference. You can read about it here. This was exactly the time to use Ramirez. The bases were loaded, Pedro Florimon was up, and the Twins needed runs. Ramirez worked the count enough to allow a run to score on a wild pitch. While Ramirez is not a special hitter, he does have power. He is certainly a better bet to drive in runs than Florimon. Some prefer Jamey Carroll in that spot, but I am guessing Ron Gardenhire wanted a power bat, to try to tie the game up. Here's the controversy. He swung at the first pitch, which many did not like because Smyly had walked the previous two hitters. I don't have a problem with it. The bases were loaded and Smyly is command/control pitcher. Smyly could have easily grooved a get-me-over fastball to get ahead in the count. If he had, Ramirez could have done damage. Instead, Smyly threw a good slider and Ramirez swung over it. Ramirez was early on the next pitch too, but ultimately had a good at bat. Other MLB Notes Bryce Harper hit two home runs. I predicted that he would win the NL MVP. This amazing first game doesn't make him any more or less likely to win, but it was fun to watch him blast those home runs. His power is crazy. His swing is so violent. Oh, he also threw a runner out at home. My favorite baseball archetype is the power-hitting right fielder with a cannon arm. I'm going to enjoy Harper's career. Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez were all outstanding yesterday. No surprises here, but it's always fun to watch aces dominate. Kershaw took matters into his own hands, hitting a go-ahead home run in the bottom of the 8th. He ended with this line: 9 innings, no walks, 4 hits, 7 Ks, 94 pitches. Outstanding. Chase Utley had a great game yesterday. He was 3-5 with a triple, home run and 3 RBI. As with every example above, it is just one game. However, it would be fantastic to see Utley return to his superstar days of old. He's 34 now, and I think he has had a Hall of Fame career. If he can tack on a couple more great seasons, I am betting that others will agree with me (if they don't already). I really enjoyed Opening Day. Although, I spent the evening at the X, watching the Wild play one of their worst games of the season. Other than that, it was a really fun day and I look forward to sharing my unwanted thoughts with all of you this season. What stood out to you on Opening Day? If you aren't interested in single game notes, I did write about 1989 Donruss baseball cards, if that's up your alley. You can read it here.

I'm not going to write about every game or every day of the season. However, I watched a lot of baseball yesterday and I have some thoughts to share. I thought the Twins game went about as would have been expected, and I was happy that they made it close near the end. I don't like to get too caught up in one game, but it's just too much fun to write about baseball, so here are some thoughts. Aaron Hicks Aaron Hicks had a tough debut. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball, so it wasn't going to be easy. Hicks struck out in all three of his at bats against Verlander. I went back and watched those at bats again and I didn't see anything that worries me long-term. He fouled off some decent fastballs that he probably should have put in play, but he also seemed to get good looks at Verlander's changeup. He got fooled on a curve in the first and a fastball in the third, but most of his swings were good and he didn't seem to be seeing the ball poorly. I called his first pitch swing against Smyly in the 7th. You had to figure he wanted no part of striking out four times in his debut. He was a little out in front of the pitch, but at least he put it in play. His last at bat was encouraging, as he took a couple close pitches to work a five pitch walk. He saw a first pitch changeup in all four of his left handed at bats, and didn't swing at one. If that is the scouting report on him, hopefully he jumps on an early off-speed pitch against Anibal Sanchez on Wednesday. Vance Worley I thought Vance Worley looked great yesterday. The first inning was a bit rough, but he had some bad luck as well. That Torii Hunter single could have just as easily been a double play. Prince Fielder's double wasn't hit well either. After Hunter's lead-off double in the 3rd, Worley was pretty much lights out. He did let the lead-off batter reach in the first four innings, which is something he should not get into the habit of doing, but he was basically effective through six innings. I liked what I saw. Joe Mauer I don't have much to say here except Mauer did not seem to have an issue adjusting to his new spot in the batting order. He had two hits, and probably should have had three. He nearly tied the game in the bottom of the 8th. His approach at the plate is really something to watch. I'm a fan, that's all. Casey Fien Fien looked great. He mowed down the top of the Tigers' order and made it look pretty easy. I'm not sure this means anything long-term, but if Fien can become a reliable late-inning reliever, the Twins' bullpen could be surprisingly good. Wilkin Ramirez Ramirez made the 5,000,000th appearance in MLB history, according to Baseball Reference. You can read about it here. This was exactly the time to use Ramirez. The bases were loaded, Pedro Florimon was up, and the Twins needed runs. Ramirez worked the count enough to allow a run to score on a wild pitch. While Ramirez is not a special hitter, he does have power. He is certainly a better bet to drive in runs than Florimon. Some prefer Jamey Carroll in that spot, but I am guessing Ron Gardenhire wanted a power bat, to try to tie the game up. Here's the controversy. He swung at the first pitch, which many did not like because Smyly had walked the previous two hitters. I don't have a problem with it. The bases were loaded and Smyly is command/control pitcher. Smyly could have easily grooved a get-me-over fastball to get ahead in the count. If he had, Ramirez could have done damage. Instead, Smyly threw a good slider and Ramirez swung over it. Ramirez was early on the next pitch too, but ultimately had a good at bat. Other MLB Notes Bryce Harper hit two home runs. I predicted that he would win the NL MVP. This amazing first game doesn't make him any more or less likely to win, but it was fun to watch him blast those home runs. His power is crazy. His swing is so violent. Oh, he also threw a runner out at home. My favorite baseball archetype is the power-hitting right fielder with a cannon arm. I'm going to enjoy Harper's career. Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez were all outstanding yesterday. No surprises here, but it's always fun to watch aces dominate. Kershaw took matters into his own hands, hitting a go-ahead home run in the bottom of the 8th. He ended with this line: 9 innings, no walks, 4 hits, 7 Ks, 94 pitches. Outstanding. Chase Utley had a great game yesterday. He was 3-5 with a triple, home run and 3 RBI. As with every example above, it is just one game. However, it would be fantastic to see Utley return to his superstar days of old. He's 34 now, and I think he has had a Hall of Fame career. If he can tack on a couple more great seasons, I am betting that others will agree with me (if they don't already). I really enjoyed Opening Day. Although, I spent the evening at the X, watching the Wild play one of their worst games of the season. Other than that, it was a really fun day and I look forward to sharing my unwanted thoughts with all of you this season. What stood out to you on Opening Day? If you aren't interested in single game notes, I did write about 1989 Donruss baseball cards, if that's up your alley. You can read it here.