Brad Swanson

I think they traded for Escobar before calling Florimon up. Their opinion could have changed. This seems to be an unpopular post. Is that because we don't like Florimon? I don't think he's great, I'm merely trying to find some value in a player who will be the staring SS.

I think we're all forgetting the obvious marketing tie-in.

Crawford must have a good agent. The whole premise relies on Florimon's defense being great or better. I'm not saying it is, but others have made that argument. If he can be a 2 WAR player, even if it all comes from defense, he provides positive value to the team.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Yesterday, I unveiled what will almost certainly go down in history as my most popular original idea: a weekly (fake) mailbag. In that mailbag I asked myself... I mean, I was asked about the Twins player I am higher on than most. I chose Pedro Florimon because I think his defense can provide enough value to overcome his complete lack of contribution on offense. I am not sure I explained my point very well and I wasn't feeling good about my selection. Then, I listened to The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe, a weekly podcast from two baseball writing powerhouses, Joe Sheehan and Rany Jazayerli. They were talking about the Trevor Bauer trade and how much they hated it. Basically, the Diamondbacks traded Bauer for Didi Gregorius, an all-glove, no-bat, low-upside player. Sheehan remarked that they basically traded an elite pitching prospect for Neifi Perez. This lead me to Perez's FanGraphs page. Turns out, he posted a 58 wRC+ for his career. Pedro Florimon posted a 59 wRC+ last season. Perez was mostly a glove, and didn't offer much in the hitting and baserunning departments. This sounds a lot like Pedro Florimon to me. Sheehan and Jazayerli weren't really questioning Perez or Gregorius as players, but the move to give up a consensus top prospect in order to acquire a player of that caliber. Gregorius might have more upside than they are giving him, but the point makes sense. It is also worth noting that Arizona received Lars Anderson and Tony Sipp in that deal, but I'm not sure that really means a whole lot. The Diamondbacks have their Neifi Perez, but at the cost of a top pitching prospect. The Twins have their Perez, but got him for basically nothing, claiming him off waivers from Baltimore. In addition, the Twins have a second Perez, in Eduardo Escobar, and they acquired him in a trade for a player that they had pretty much grown apart from in Francisco Liriano. So, what's the point? I've been investigating middle infielders a lot lately, and I have come to the realization that a good defensive shortstop is a relatively valuable commodity. Basically, a shortstop with any good quality is pretty rare. A good offensive shortstop is very rare. I made that point in a post last weekend (near the bottom in the Addendum). In addition, good, valuable shortstops are extremely rare, as I posited here. Florimon is valuable because he was acquired so cheaply and he makes almost no money. In addition, he isn't the type of player who will ever earn a lot of money through the arbitration process, as he isn't likely to put up statistics that bring back big paychecks. Fine, but how hard is it to get a Florimon or Perez or Gregorius. The Twins got Florimon cheaply, while Arizona gave up a fair amount. The only way to really find out is to find more players who fit this profile. I checked each MLB team's depth chart and found players who roughly fit this profile. I only used players who project to get significant time at shortstop this coming season. I found 14 players. These players range in their offensive abilities. Some are as poor as Perez, but others have performed at a higher level. Each has been considered below average in their offensive contributions though, using wRC+, or has a poor offensive reputation, based on minor league performance. Now that I have a sample, I investigated how each of these players was acquired by their current team. Here is the chart: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 607] Player Team Salary (in $) How Acquired? Brendan Ryan Seattle 3.25 Mil Traded for Maikel Cleto Adeiny Hechavarria Miami 1.75 Mil Acquired in Jose Reyes/Josh Johnson/Mark Buehrle Blockbuster Ruben Tejada New York M 491 K Amateur Free Agent Zack Cozart Cincinnati 480 K 2nd Round - 2007 Draft Clint Barmes Pittsburgh 5.5 Mil Free Agency - 2 yrs/10.5 Mil Pete Kozma St. Louis League Min 1st Round - 2007 Draft Cliff Pennington Arizona 1.75 Mil Acquired in Chris Young/Heath Bell Trade Didi Gregorius Arizona League Min Acquired in Trevor Bauer Trade Jose Iglesias Boston 2.06 Mil Amateur Free Agent Everth Cabrera San Diego 1.275 Mil Rule 5 Draft Brandon Crawford San Francisco 481 K 4th Round - 2008 Draft Freddy Galvis Philadelphia 480 K Amateur Free Agent Pedro Florimon Minnesota League Min Waivers Eduardo Escobar Minnesota 480 K Francisco Liriano Trade [/TABLE] Upon first glance, it is easy to see that the Neifi Perez type is more of a National League phenomenon. Most American League teams can boast players with average offense, but not all of those shortstops provide good defense. If a better offensive option isn't present, a good defensive shortstop seems to be a worthy trade-off. It shouldn't really matter where a player provides their value. Looking at the cost of each player, we can see that the Twins might pay the least this year and will have given up the least to acquire their Neifi Perez. This chart includes some early draft picks and some players who were centerpieces in trades for quality MLB players. Others are rule 5 picks, amateur free agents and waiver claims. The range of cost for these players is greater than I would have expected. While we can debate the true merits of a player like Florimon, if a team chooses to go that route, they could do a lot worse than a waiver claim making the league minimum. One other thing that I like about a defensive shortstop is that they can have a lucky offensive season, and provide bonus value. A random, lucky, good defensive season is pretty unlikely. Many will argue that glove-first shortstops grow on trees. While this may be true, they aren't showing up in droves on MLB teams, at least not as cheaply as Florimon has. While the Twins did not raise payroll this season, if they choose to in the future, they can save a lot of money for pitching and other positions if they have a player like Florimon at short. All of this hinges on Florimon's defense. If he is as good defensively as we saw last year, the Twins may have found a valuable commodity, at a bargain basement price. The fatal flaw would be that Florimon's biggest asset is also very hard to properly quantify. Personally, I trust defensive metrics, but many do not. If his defense is not being properly evaluated, his value cannot be accurately calculated. Offense is easy to see on the field and in a spreadsheet, but defense is much tougher. It's more than just defense though, it's more defense by cost. If Florimon was making $3 million next season, I wouldn't be writing this. Fortunately for the Twins, he will be one of their cheapest players. He may not be a sexy player, but I do know that short of better options, a Florimon type makes sense and clearly other teams agree with the Twins.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Yesterday, I unveiled what will almost certainly go down in history as my most popular original idea: a weekly (fake) mailbag. In that mailbag I asked myself... I mean, I was asked about the Twins player I am higher on than most. I chose Pedro Florimon because I think his defense can provide enough value to overcome his complete lack of contribution on offense. I am not sure I explained my point very well and I wasn't feeling good about my selection. Then, I listened to The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe, a weekly podcast from two baseball writing powerhouses, Joe Sheehan and Rany Jazayerli. They were talking about the Trevor Bauer trade and how much they hated it. Basically, the Diamondbacks traded Bauer for Didi Gregorius, an all-glove, no-bat, low-upside player. Sheehan remarked that they basically traded an elite pitching prospect for Neifi Perez. This lead me to Perez's FanGraphs page. Turns out, he posted a 58 wRC+ for his career. Pedro Florimon posted a 59 wRC+ last season. Perez was mostly a glove, and didn't offer much in the hitting and baserunning departments. This sounds a lot like Pedro Florimon to me. Sheehan and Jazayerli weren't really questioning Perez or Gregorius as players, but the move to give up a consensus top prospect in order to acquire a player of that caliber. Gregorius might have more upside than they are giving him, but the point makes sense. It is also worth noting that Arizona received Lars Anderson and Tony Sipp in that deal, but I'm not sure that really means a whole lot. The Diamondbacks have their Neifi Perez, but at the cost of a top pitching prospect. The Twins have their Perez, but got him for basically nothing, claiming him off waivers from Baltimore. In addition, the Twins have a second Perez, in Eduardo Escobar, and they acquired him in a trade for a player that they had pretty much grown apart from in Francisco Liriano. So, what's the point? I've been investigating middle infielders a lot lately, and I have come to the realization that a good defensive shortstop is a relatively valuable commodity. Basically, a shortstop with any good quality is pretty rare. A good offensive shortstop is very rare. I made that point in a post last weekend (near the bottom in the Addendum). In addition, good, valuable shortstops are extremely rare, as I posited here. Florimon is valuable because he was acquired so cheaply and he makes almost no money. In addition, he isn't the type of player who will ever earn a lot of money through the arbitration process, as he isn't likely to put up statistics that bring back big paychecks. Fine, but how hard is it to get a Florimon or Perez or Gregorius. The Twins got Florimon cheaply, while Arizona gave up a fair amount. The only way to really find out is to find more players who fit this profile. I checked each MLB team's depth chart and found players who roughly fit this profile. I only used players who project to get significant time at shortstop this coming season. I found 14 players. These players range in their offensive abilities. Some are as poor as Perez, but others have performed at a higher level. Each has been considered below average in their offensive contributions though, using wRC+, or has a poor offensive reputation, based on minor league performance. Now that I have a sample, I investigated how each of these players was acquired by their current team. Here is the chart: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 607] Player Team Salary (in $) How Acquired? Brendan Ryan Seattle 3.25 Mil Traded for Maikel Cleto Adeiny Hechavarria Miami 1.75 Mil Acquired in Jose Reyes/Josh Johnson/Mark Buehrle Blockbuster Ruben Tejada New York M 491 K Amateur Free Agent Zack Cozart Cincinnati 480 K 2nd Round - 2007 Draft Clint Barmes Pittsburgh 5.5 Mil Free Agency - 2 yrs/10.5 Mil Pete Kozma St. Louis League Min 1st Round - 2007 Draft Cliff Pennington Arizona 1.75 Mil Acquired in Chris Young/Heath Bell Trade Didi Gregorius Arizona League Min Acquired in Trevor Bauer Trade Jose Iglesias Boston 2.06 Mil Amateur Free Agent Everth Cabrera San Diego 1.275 Mil Rule 5 Draft Brandon Crawford San Francisco 481 K 4th Round - 2008 Draft Freddy Galvis Philadelphia 480 K Amateur Free Agent Pedro Florimon Minnesota League Min Waivers Eduardo Escobar Minnesota 480 K Francisco Liriano Trade [/TABLE] Upon first glance, it is easy to see that the Neifi Perez type is more of a National League phenomenon. Most American League teams can boast players with average offense, but not all of those shortstops provide good defense. If a better offensive option isn't present, a good defensive shortstop seems to be a worthy trade-off. It shouldn't really matter where a player provides their value. Looking at the cost of each player, we can see that the Twins might pay the least this year and will have given up the least to acquire their Neifi Perez. This chart includes some early draft picks and some players who were centerpieces in trades for quality MLB players. Others are rule 5 picks, amateur free agents and waiver claims. The range of cost for these players is greater than I would have expected. While we can debate the true merits of a player like Florimon, if a team chooses to go that route, they could do a lot worse than a waiver claim making the league minimum. One other thing that I like about a defensive shortstop is that they can have a lucky offensive season, and provide bonus value. A random, lucky, good defensive season is pretty unlikely. Many will argue that glove-first shortstops grow on trees. While this may be true, they aren't showing up in droves on MLB teams, at least not as cheaply as Florimon has. While the Twins did not raise payroll this season, if they choose to in the future, they can save a lot of money for pitching and other positions if they have a player like Florimon at short. All of this hinges on Florimon's defense. If he is as good defensively as we saw last year, the Twins may have found a valuable commodity, at a bargain basement price. The fatal flaw would be that Florimon's biggest asset is also very hard to properly quantify. Personally, I trust defensive metrics, but many do not. If his defense is not being properly evaluated, his value cannot be accurately calculated. Offense is easy to see on the field and in a spreadsheet, but defense is much tougher. It's more than just defense though, it's more defense by cost. If Florimon was making $3 million next season, I wouldn't be writing this. Fortunately for the Twins, he will be one of their cheapest players. He may not be a sexy player, but I do know that short of better options, a Florimon type makes sense and clearly other teams agree with the Twins.

I would say that each is equally unsatisfying, each has the same likelihood to turn out well and each leaves you feeling sick from what just transpired.

However, the reality is that Gausman and Zimmer could be struggling in the minors or out with injuries as well and Buxton could be killing AA pitching. No team ever really knows who the best player available is. Just go to baseballreference.com and sort their draft columns by WAR or whatever stat you like. It never works out the way players were drafted. My overall point is that the Twins should take the player they think is the best fit for their organization. If that means taking a college pitcher or a HS outfielder, I don't care. I just don't want them passing up better players to fill needs. There are better ways to fill immediate needs than through the draft.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I get asked a lot of questions in my daily travels. Most of them are related to social studies and asked by 14-year-olds. However, I was once asked a question about the Twins and that inspired me to start a weekly (probably not) Friday mailbag! A recent report stated that the Texas Rangers are likely to trade Elvis Andrus if they cannot extend him. With Jurickson Profar on his way to stardom, should the Twins try to low-ball the Rangers to help with their impending problem? What would be a realistic trade proposal the Twins could make and would you make that trade. Thanks, huge fan! - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Aw, that's sweet. Elvis Andrus is an excellent player. He plays great defense, is improving on offense and runs the bases well. He is only 24 years old and could be a star shortstop for the next 10 years. Of course, the Rangers know that as well. I don't think a low-ball offer is a good idea, because the Rangers have other options. They may try to trade him, find that no offer is up to their standards, and then simply move him to second base, to make room for Profar. It's not their ideal scenario, but it's better than taking back a poor return. A fair offer would probably start with Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Both are excellent prospects, but Andrus is a proven shortstop with upside of his own. I wouldn't see any scenario where the Twins acquire Andrus without giving up one of those players. Then, they would likely need to add 2 more good prospects (think some combination of two of the following: Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler), to make it work. That sounds like a lot to give up, as we tend to grow to love our teams' prospects. However, a player like Andrus is rare and has a ton of value. You can't low-ball and expect to land him. If the Twins offered Sano, Oswaldo Arcia and Berrios, I bet it would be a done deal. Would you make that deal? Hi Brad, huge fan. I have three questions. Who wins a "Battle of the Network Stars" style competition between current Red Sox players and current Celtics players? Can you please compare the cast of Cheers (Shelly Long version, of course) to the 2004 Red Sox? Which 90210 character would make the best shortstop? Thanks! - Bill S. (Los Angeles, CA) Wow. I had no idea you were a reader. I'm a huge fan as well. However, these questions are well outside of my area of expertise. I just assumed you were working on 5000-word-columns about each of these questions. I'll answer rapid fire: Red Sox because they'd have PEDs, No, I cannot, and Robbie? Oh, and thanks for letting me use your mailbag idea. That was very kind. Hi Brad, big fan. I would say that you and Teddy Roosevelt are my two heroes. I print all your posts and use them to line my walls as wallpaper. Anyway, which Twin are you higher on than most and which Twin are you lower on than most? - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Thank you for the kind words. Although, Roosevelt was a known conservationist, and he would probably be appalled to hear that you are wasting paper in such a manner. In fact, he'd probably hunt you for sport. However, he is dead, and ghosts can't hunt. Going forward, just make PDF copies of my posts and set them as your computer desktop background instead. As for your question, it depends on what you mean by higher and lower. I certainly think that Pedro Florimon can provide better value than many are expecting, if his glove is as advertised. A 2-win player is a 2-win player is a 2-win player. If a player provides value in one area and not the other, it shouldn't matter which area the player provides value. Ryan Doumit was pretty much all offense and no defense. Pedro Florimon could prove to be the opposite. If both provide equal value, who cares where it comes from? I am lower on Justin Morneau, but just because I think his World Baseball Classic showing might be inflating his expectations. I think he will be good, but I don't see him returning to his MVP form or anything like that. If he can provide a .280/.350/.475 line, I'd be pretty happy with that. I'd probably trade him before he can put up a full season at that rate though. Stop making fun of my cheeks, stomach and tiny running steps. - Delmon Y (Philadelphia, PA) You're right, I need to stop resorting to making fun of your body. It's just not nice, and it's lazy. Instead, I shall refer to you now as Elmn Yung, since you have no O and no D. Hi Brad, I am a relatively huge fan. I consider you the Sacagawea of Kevin Slowey was Framed! The Twins recently reassigned Kyle Gibson to AAA. He wasn't having a great Spring, but it seems he is a better option than a few slated for the rotation. Where do you stand on Gibson and his contributions in 2013? - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Wow, two U.S. History references! Who are these people, am I right? To be fair, I am the only member of Kevin Slowey was Framed! so I am all things and nothing at once. I think Gibson is going to be a really good pitcher. I like that his stuff is mostly back after his surgery. He seems to be working on getting his feel and consistency back, but those were his hallmarks prior to his arm issues. If those two things come back, he could be a quality starting pitcher for the Twins, in the near future. That being said, I am fine with Gibson being cut and I would be fine with Gibson spending all of 2013 in AAA, if it comes to that. The Twins have other starting options. We may not like them, but they exist. Gibson is still recovering from major elbow surgery and he hasn't been consistently effective yet. I'm not saying they should hold him down in AAA no matter what. If he pitches well for a sustained period of time, he should be called up. However, if he remains inconsistent and is still getting his feel back, he should do that in AAA. I would like to see him get at least a handful of starts with the Twins, at some point this season. Joe Mauer is the Worst. - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) That's not a question. It's not true either. This stuff has to stop. You are either expecting too much from Mauer or you hate everyone. Either way isn't good for your blood pressure. In 2012, no one made outs at a lower rate than Mauer. That seems to be better than "the worst." Just enjoy him. He'll be gone before you know it. Thanks for all the great questions everyone. If you want to contribute to a future mailbag, you should probably contact me. I think I have a hotmail account that I use, but I can't remember the password. How about this, post your question as a review of this Little Caesar's Pizza on Yelp. I'll just know to check that review periodically. Have a nice weekend! Brad Swanson is not qualified to answer your questions. He really needs to start cleaning the garage. His musings can be heard if you are in his car between the hours of roughly 7:30 - 8:30am and 4:00 - 5:00pm, depending on traffic.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I get asked a lot of questions in my daily travels. Most of them are related to social studies and asked by 14-year-olds. However, I was once asked a question about the Twins and that inspired me to start a weekly (probably not) Friday mailbag! A recent report stated that the Texas Rangers are likely to trade Elvis Andrus if they cannot extend him. With Jurickson Profar on his way to stardom, should the Twins try to low-ball the Rangers to help with their impending problem? What would be a realistic trade proposal the Twins could make and would you make that trade. Thanks, huge fan! - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Aw, that's sweet. Elvis Andrus is an excellent player. He plays great defense, is improving on offense and runs the bases well. He is only 24 years old and could be a star shortstop for the next 10 years. Of course, the Rangers know that as well. I don't think a low-ball offer is a good idea, because the Rangers have other options. They may try to trade him, find that no offer is up to their standards, and then simply move him to second base, to make room for Profar. It's not their ideal scenario, but it's better than taking back a poor return. A fair offer would probably start with Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Both are excellent prospects, but Andrus is a proven shortstop with upside of his own. I wouldn't see any scenario where the Twins acquire Andrus without giving up one of those players. Then, they would likely need to add 2 more good prospects (think some combination of two of the following: Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler), to make it work. That sounds like a lot to give up, as we tend to grow to love our teams' prospects. However, a player like Andrus is rare and has a ton of value. You can't low-ball and expect to land him. If the Twins offered Sano, Oswaldo Arcia and Berrios, I bet it would be a done deal. Would you make that deal? Hi Brad, huge fan. I have three questions. Who wins a "Battle of the Network Stars" style competition between current Red Sox players and current Celtics players? Can you please compare the cast of Cheers (Shelly Long version, of course) to the 2004 Red Sox? Which 90210 character would make the best shortstop? Thanks! - Bill S. (Los Angeles, CA) Wow. I had no idea you were a reader. I'm a huge fan as well. However, these questions are well outside of my area of expertise. I just assumed you were working on 5000-word-columns about each of these questions. I'll answer rapid fire: Red Sox because they'd have PEDs, No, I cannot, and Robbie? Oh, and thanks for letting me use your mailbag idea. That was very kind. Hi Brad, big fan. I would say that you and Teddy Roosevelt are my two heroes. I print all your posts and use them to line my walls as wallpaper. Anyway, which Twin are you higher on than most and which Twin are you lower on than most? - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Thank you for the kind words. Although, Roosevelt was a known conservationist, and he would probably be appalled to hear that you are wasting paper in such a manner. In fact, he'd probably hunt you for sport. However, he is dead, and ghosts can't hunt. Going forward, just make PDF copies of my posts and set them as your computer desktop background instead. As for your question, it depends on what you mean by higher and lower. I certainly think that Pedro Florimon can provide better value than many are expecting, if his glove is as advertised. A 2-win player is a 2-win player is a 2-win player. If a player provides value in one area and not the other, it shouldn't matter which area the player provides value. Ryan Doumit was pretty much all offense and no defense. Pedro Florimon could prove to be the opposite. If both provide equal value, who cares where it comes from? I am lower on Justin Morneau, but just because I think his World Baseball Classic showing might be inflating his expectations. I think he will be good, but I don't see him returning to his MVP form or anything like that. If he can provide a .280/.350/.475 line, I'd be pretty happy with that. I'd probably trade him before he can put up a full season at that rate though. Stop making fun of my cheeks, stomach and tiny running steps. - Delmon Y (Philadelphia, PA) You're right, I need to stop resorting to making fun of your body. It's just not nice, and it's lazy. Instead, I shall refer to you now as Elmn Yung, since you have no O and no D. Hi Brad, I am a relatively huge fan. I consider you the Sacagawea of Kevin Slowey was Framed! The Twins recently reassigned Kyle Gibson to AAA. He wasn't having a great Spring, but it seems he is a better option than a few slated for the rotation. Where do you stand on Gibson and his contributions in 2013? - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) Wow, two U.S. History references! Who are these people, am I right? To be fair, I am the only member of Kevin Slowey was Framed! so I am all things and nothing at once. I think Gibson is going to be a really good pitcher. I like that his stuff is mostly back after his surgery. He seems to be working on getting his feel and consistency back, but those were his hallmarks prior to his arm issues. If those two things come back, he could be a quality starting pitcher for the Twins, in the near future. That being said, I am fine with Gibson being cut and I would be fine with Gibson spending all of 2013 in AAA, if it comes to that. The Twins have other starting options. We may not like them, but they exist. Gibson is still recovering from major elbow surgery and he hasn't been consistently effective yet. I'm not saying they should hold him down in AAA no matter what. If he pitches well for a sustained period of time, he should be called up. However, if he remains inconsistent and is still getting his feel back, he should do that in AAA. I would like to see him get at least a handful of starts with the Twins, at some point this season. Joe Mauer is the Worst. - Brad S (Twin Cities, MN) That's not a question. It's not true either. This stuff has to stop. You are either expecting too much from Mauer or you hate everyone. Either way isn't good for your blood pressure. In 2012, no one made outs at a lower rate than Mauer. That seems to be better than "the worst." Just enjoy him. He'll be gone before you know it. Thanks for all the great questions everyone. If you want to contribute to a future mailbag, you should probably contact me. I think I have a hotmail account that I use, but I can't remember the password. How about this, post your question as a review of this Little Caesar's Pizza on Yelp. I'll just know to check that review periodically. Have a nice weekend! Brad Swanson is not qualified to answer your questions. He really needs to start cleaning the garage. His musings can be heard if you are in his car between the hours of roughly 7:30 - 8:30am and 4:00 - 5:00pm, depending on traffic.

However, the same could be said about the pitcher you want. Who is to say the number 2 starter would automatically be a number 2 starter?

For me, walking a lot of batters is pitching poorly. He may have stranded a lot of those runners, but he may not strand them at such a high rate next season. He was at 77% last season, which is very high. That isn't to say he can't sustain it, but it is much higher than his minor league strand rates. If his strand rate is a skill and not statistical noise, he could potentially keep up his "good" results. However, there are roughly 15 pitchers from the last 50 years with a walk rate as high as Deduno's. None achieved any level of sustained success. Those with the most success had much higher strikeout rates. Here is the list (at least 200 innings pitched): [TABLE=width: 192] [TD=width: 64][TABLE] Name K% BB% Mitch Williams 21.20% 17.50% Ken Wright 17.10% 17.00% Brian Bruney 21.30% 15.80% Carlos Marmol 30.10% 15.50% John D'Acquisto 17.10% 15.50% Mark Clear 22.30% 15.30% Deduno 16.40% 15.30% Doug Creek 22.20% 15.10% Jose DeJesus 14.60% 15.00% Renyel Pinto 21.90% 15.00% Dan Warthen 16.70% 14.80% Derrick Turnbow 23.40% 14.80% Ed Correa 20.40% 14.80% John Parrish 17.60% 14.80% [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64, align: right][/TD] [/TABLE]

Well yes, that is true. If all things are equal, I would have no issue with the Twins taking a pitcher over a position player. My point would be that I don't want the Twins taking a pitcher no matter what. If they like an outfielder more than the best available pitcher, I would want them to take the player they think will be the better player.

I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere. As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small. When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6. I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012: Innings Correia - 79.2 Deduno - 73.2 ERA Correia - 4.07 Deduno - 4.40 FIP Correia - 3.47 Deduno - 5.28 K% Correia - 15.8% Deduno - 16.6% Starts Correia - 12 Deduno - 14 Is this the only factor we are focusing on: Salary Correia - 5 mil Deduno - League Min If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

89 pitches in just over 5 innings! If Kevin Slowey did that, everyone would be calling for his books!

If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

After the draft, I believe.

Ultimately, the only draft board that matters is the Twins'. If they have Buxton over Gausman or Frazier over Appel, that's how the draft will go. My point would be, do you take the guaranteed 3rd starter at #4 or a potential superstar outfielder? I don't think it is safe to assume that any of the possible starters are certain to be better than that. Your own choice probably comes down to the level of risk you prefer.

This is where Gray gets more interesting to me. If the Twins knew he would sign under slot (for whatever reason), I'd have no problem with the Twins drafting him 4th, then using extra money later in the draft. I'd love to see them get Chris Okey or Jeremy Martinez with their next pick, pay them extra and get them in the system. Of course, if Gray is really hitting 100 consistently, he probably won't have to sign under slot. But I still like that strategy.

Yes, I absolutely would pass on a college arm for a HS hitter, if I felt the HS hitter was better. I just always prefer taking the best player. Although, I will admit that deciding on the "best player" is a huge challenge and not as simple as I am making it out to be.

I like Denney a lot too. I think he might sneak into the top 5, like Mike Zunino last season (although Zunino was a college catcher). It seems a lot of people want a college arm. I'm fine with that, so long as it's the best available player. Too much can change, even with college arms that look like sure things, to pass up someone with huge upside. Danny Hultzen would be an example. He could still iron things out, but he could end up a bust just as much as Bubba Starling, taken 3 picks later. If it's down to a college arm that you sort of like, or an outfielder that you love, I'd take the better player and deal with positional issues when/if it becomes an issue. Just my opinion. All that being said, I like Manaea and Appel, but I'm not so sure I would take Stanek or Gray over Frazier or even Meadows.

This is an excellent list! I'm a big fan of Frazier. I know the Twins have a glut of outfielders, but that guy could be a huge star. I would also keep an eye on Jon Denney, the high school catcher from Oklahoma. Good catcher, good power. Could really move up draft boards if he has a big senior year.

I totally agree. If the Twins aren't winning, there is no sense in wasting games behind the plate. If Mauer is still able to catch 100 or so games in a couple seasons, say 2015 and 2016, we'll all be happy he didn't wear down during these "down" years.

That is very kind, thank you! I would recommend the game. I've played each of the last four MLB the Show games and I think they keep getting better. The hitting has really improved.

First off, thanks to everyone for various kind words. Much appreciated! Second, thanks for the tip on the rosters, whitsbrain! Third, Mauer should have high marks in plate discipline for sure. He also has a strong arm, even if he doesn't throw out a lot of runners. Finally, Andrew, you deserve a Nobel Prize for customizing the rosters like that!

You are very welcome, I am enjoying the research!