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  1. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Hi, Twins Daily! In the last few days, I have posted a few more draft recaps at my blog. If you missed them, and want to read about them, you can find them here: 1994, 1995, 1996. Here is 1997: Travis Lee was being a real jag and didn't want to sign with the Twins after the 1996 draft. The Twins did not want to duplicate that jaggery in 1997. They had a strict "no-jag" policy in '97, opting instead for super nice guys. In the end, the Twins drafted two very popular players and one (perhaps) unfairly unpopular player. They also drafted a guy who they would later draft much higher and with much worse results. Stay tuned! 1st Round Picks The Twins had two, as the aforementioned jag did not sign. The Twins had the 9th overall pick, and used it to draft Michael Cuddyer. "Cuddy," or "Cuddy Bear," as he would be affectionately called, took some time to get it going, but ultimately became a useful and versatile player, albeit one with a very red face. With their Lee pick, the Twins drafted Matt LeCroy. He looked like a teddy bear, so the Twins completed the Cuddy Bear/Teddy Bear combo successfully. Ah, but what if? I know that Cuddy was very popular, but Lance Berkman went 16th overall and was roughly four times the player as Cuddyer (by WAR, which I know, I know, it sucks, but just handle it, k?). Berkman has a semi-decent Hall of Fame case and a no-doubt Hall of Fame nickname - Big Puma. Would he have become Big Puma in Minnesota? He'd probably be Berky or LancePants, so I think everything worked out perfectly for all stakeholders. Best Player Drafted Well, well, well, if it isn't Mr. Nick Punto! Punto narrowly edges Cuddyer out by WAR, mostly because he was a great defensive player with good on-base skills and he battled just slightly more than Cuddy. Honestly, Nick Punto drew a lot of ire from fans, but was never the worst player on the team and not nearly as embarrassing as Denny Hocking and his frosted tips (unprovoked Hocking shot alert!). Of course, Punto didn't actually sign with the Twins. He went back to school (he's smart) and was drafted in the 21st round by the Phillies the following year. He would then come to the Twins in the 2003 Eric Milton trade. Worst Player to Reach MLB 25th-round pick Adam Johnson, who posted a -1.1 career WAR. You may remember Johnson as a first-round pick, but that would come a few years later. In fact... The One Who Got Away I'd argue that Johnson is the one who got away. If the Twins had signed him back in 1997, he wouldn't have been around to draft in the first round in 2000. If not him, Punto, but he eventually found his way back to the flock. Best Name Tagg Bozied in the 50th round. Much like the Terminator, "he would be back, later." Fun Facts The Twins drafted future backup quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo in the 34th round. He should have been in soap ads; seems like a huge missed opportunity. Michael Restovich, the Twins' second-round pick, went to Mayo High School. When you think of it, it's a Miracle that he Whipped himself to the Big Leagues. Right? The Twins drafted Tim Sturdy in the 23rd round. Oddly enough, he was 7' 5" and 155 lb. Michael Cuddyer was arguably a better pitcher than Adam Johnson The Twins drafted David Justice in the 49th round, which was later deemed illegal, as Justice was an established player with the Braves. It was worth a shot. All those drafted who made it to the Bigs Nick Punto, Michael Cuddyer, J.C. Romero, Matt LeCroy, Michael Restovich, Kevin Frederick, and Adam Johnson One Sentence Summary LEAVE NICK PUNTO ALONE!
  2. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Hi, Twins Daily! In the last few days, I have posted a few more draft recaps at my blog. If you missed them, and want to read about them, you can find them here: 1994, 1995, 1996. Here is 1997: Travis Lee was being a real jag and didn't want to sign with the Twins after the 1996 draft. The Twins did not want to duplicate that jaggery in 1997. They had a strict "no-jag" policy in '97, opting instead for super nice guys. In the end, the Twins drafted two very popular players and one (perhaps) unfairly unpopular player. They also drafted a guy who they would later draft much higher and with much worse results. Stay tuned! 1st Round Picks The Twins had two, as the aforementioned jag did not sign. The Twins had the 9th overall pick, and used it to draft Michael Cuddyer. "Cuddy," or "Cuddy Bear," as he would be affectionately called, took some time to get it going, but ultimately became a useful and versatile player, albeit one with a very red face. With their Lee pick, the Twins drafted Matt LeCroy. He looked like a teddy bear, so the Twins completed the Cuddy Bear/Teddy Bear combo successfully. Ah, but what if? I know that Cuddy was very popular, but Lance Berkman went 16th overall and was roughly four times the player as Cuddyer (by WAR, which I know, I know, it sucks, but just handle it, k?). Berkman has a semi-decent Hall of Fame case and a no-doubt Hall of Fame nickname - Big Puma. Would he have become Big Puma in Minnesota? He'd probably be Berky or LancePants, so I think everything worked out perfectly for all stakeholders. Best Player Drafted Well, well, well, if it isn't Mr. Nick Punto! Punto narrowly edges Cuddyer out by WAR, mostly because he was a great defensive player with good on-base skills and he battled just slightly more than Cuddy. Honestly, Nick Punto drew a lot of ire from fans, but was never the worst player on the team and not nearly as embarrassing as Denny Hocking and his frosted tips (unprovoked Hocking shot alert!). Of course, Punto didn't actually sign with the Twins. He went back to school (he's smart) and was drafted in the 21st round by the Phillies the following year. He would then come to the Twins in the 2003 Eric Milton trade. Worst Player to Reach MLB 25th-round pick Adam Johnson, who posted a -1.1 career WAR. You may remember Johnson as a first-round pick, but that would come a few years later. In fact... The One Who Got Away I'd argue that Johnson is the one who got away. If the Twins had signed him back in 1997, he wouldn't have been around to draft in the first round in 2000. If not him, Punto, but he eventually found his way back to the flock. Best Name Tagg Bozied in the 50th round. Much like the Terminator, "he would be back, later." Fun Facts The Twins drafted future backup quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo in the 34th round. He should have been in soap ads; seems like a huge missed opportunity. Michael Restovich, the Twins' second-round pick, went to Mayo High School. When you think of it, it's a Miracle that he Whipped himself to the Big Leagues. Right? The Twins drafted Tim Sturdy in the 23rd round. Oddly enough, he was 7' 5" and 155 lb. Michael Cuddyer was arguably a better pitcher than Adam Johnson The Twins drafted David Justice in the 49th round, which was later deemed illegal, as Justice was an established player with the Braves. It was worth a shot. All those drafted who made it to the Bigs Nick Punto, Michael Cuddyer, J.C. Romero, Matt LeCroy, Michael Restovich, Kevin Frederick, and Adam Johnson One Sentence Summary LEAVE NICK PUNTO ALONE!
  3. I'm not really defending their process, I just think Machado is a very unique example. He was an advanced teenage prospect and clearly is already one of the better players in all of baseball. While Buxton and Sano are great prospects, they do not fit that profile. Even though this will somewhat contradict my feelings from earlier parts of this thread, aren't Hicks and Arcia up at relatively young ages? Each is struggling and many want them sent back to the Minors. I'd prefer to keep Sano at 3rd for at least the rest of this season. It sounds like he is improving somewhat and his value as a 3rd baseman would be immense. I would definitely not be in favor of promoting him and sending him to a new position at the same time. That seems like a really dangerous combo.
  4. I think there is some difference between Buxton and Machado and definitely a difference between Sano and Machado. Machado has a more refined pedigree. He played USA baseball for a couple seasons, and was a year younger when drafted. Machado played 38 games at low A in his first full season, then spent the rest of the year at high A. He played nearly a full season at AA before being called up last season. Buxton has played 42 games at low A, and who knows, he could get a promotion to high A soon and spend the rest of the season there. Then, he may play 100 games at AA next year and be in Minnesota in August. Sano has a lot to work on. He has huge power, but he still needs to work on hitting and defense. Machado didn't have holes like those. The questions about him were whether he would stay at short long-term, and when he was called up to play third, those questions were not relevant. I think it is a bit unfair to compare Twins' prospects to Machado in the first place, as Machado was a really great prospect and in the last five years, the Twins have had no one on his level. Buxton might be on his level, but he's only had 42 games of full-season baseball so far.
  5. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1744-Monday-Morning-Madness
  6. I have already admitted that I understand the desire to send a player down for seasoning. It sounds delicious. My point is that I don't agree with the concept. Anything a player needs to work on at the AAA level, they can work on at the MLB level. If Arcia adjusts to the adjustments that pitchers have made against him, the Twins know they have an MLB caliber hitter. If he heads to Rochester and rakes, the Twins know they have a AAA caliber hitter and maybe an MLB hitter. The lights may be brighter in Minnesota, but now we're getting into the psyche of a player, and I don't think we can do that from our homes. If the Twins have people who can accurately determine whether Aaron Hicks needs to be removed from the spotlight of the Majors, then I am all for sending him to AAA. My issue with Hicks all along has been that I don't feel he should be sent to AAA as a form of punishment for his poor play. The Twins made the decision to jump him past AAA and they had to know it would be a rough transition. I don't see a player in AAA who will honestly help the Twins team, so the punishment makes no sense as a baseball decision either. If the team (or fans) want Hicks sent to AAA for seasoning or a confidence boost or whatever, then I can understand that point of view. I feel that some want Hicks sent to AAA because he is "killing the Twins" and I just don't see it that way and I don't think replacing him with Clete Thomas or Antoan Richardson will do anything to remedy that particular issue.
  7. How does three weeks in Rochester really help Hicks? I don't buy confidence as the factor. If confidence is what you're looking for, isn't there a risk that he doesn't hit and then his confidence level is even lower? I'm not really arguing that it would happen, but it's clearly the other side of that coin. Antoan Richardson has played about 25 more games at AAA than Hicks. Is he really going to help the Twins?
  8. In a way, I understand the desire to send Hicks and Arcia to AAA for "seasoning" and giving older AAA veterans opportunities that they have earned through good play. However, if the Twins send Hicks to AAA and call up Thomas, what are they really going to learn about either player? Hicks goes to Rochester, plays well and comes back to the Twins. Now what? How does that prove he can play at MLB level? Clete Thomas is Clete Thomas. He has no future in this organization. He may "deserve" a promotion but he isn't going to play all that much better than Hicks could play going forward. Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe got sent to AAA to crush, did so, and we still don't know if either guy is a solid MLB player. If the Twins send Hicks down the only thing they can really learn is whether or not Aaron Hicks can handle AAA pitching. I don't want to see Hicks hit .150 all season, but I also don't think that would happen. Hicks in April - .113/.229/.127 - 26 K, 11 BB Hicks in May - .185/.254/.426 - 11 K, 5 BB If they were going to send him down, it would have made sense to do so a few weeks ago. Now, he's improving (not a lot) and it would be worth seeing what he can do for a few more weeks. If it's mid-June and he is still putting up a line like he has in May, then send him down. For now, why not see if he is going to keep building on what he's done in recent weeks? There's no risk. Clete Thomas isn't going anywhere.
  9. Welp. The Minnesota Twins weren't really supposed to be good or even decent this season, so a 2-7 homestand isn't crazy. It's more disappointing after what seemed like a such a positive start. Regardless, this franchise is clearly trending upward, even if this past week doesn't reflect that. The thing that struck me the most from the weekend was another shaky Scott Diamond start. I looked at Diamond's stats from the first half of 2012 (when Diamond was a borderline Ace), the second half of 2012 (when Diamond was good, but not great), and the start of this season (when Diamond looks like he might be regressing). What is different? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (Back in February, I did a detailed breakdown of Diamond's 2012 and concluded that 2012 Scott Diamond was a good pitcher and if he can replicate what he did in 2012, he could have long-term success. You can read it here) Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Here's a chart with Diamond's peripherals: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 612] [/TD][TD]K% BB% LOB% GB% LD% FB% HR/FB HR/9 BABIP xFIP ERA 2012 1st Half 13.9 3.7 79.3 59 20.3 20.7 14.8 0.91 0.285 3.57 2.61 2012 2nd Half 11.6 4.9 68.6 48.9 21.5 29.6 9.5 0.86 0.298 4.23 4.31 2013 9.8 5.5 70.6 47.4 19.7 32.8 13.3 1.36 0.318 4.62 4.99 League Avg (2012) 19.8 8 72.5 45.1 20.9 34 11.3 1.02 0.293 4.01 4.01 [/TABLE] 2013 Scott Diamond has looked a lot more like the 2012 second half Scott Diamond. He's getting fewer ground balls, and more of his fly balls are going over the fence. His walk rate is ticking upward and his strikeout rate is ticking downward. These numbers need to start reversing or Diamond will have a very difficult time replicating his 2012 success. I looked at some PitchF/x data as well. The samples are small, so there isn't much significance. However, some trends are evident. Looking at this chart, it appears that his curveball is as good as ever: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 322] CB O-Swing% O-Contact% SwStr% 2012 48.2 52.4 15.2 2013 46.7 48.6 15 Average (2012) 29 63.8 9.1 [/TABLE] Batters still swing at a very high percentage of his curves outside the zone and they still make little contact. In addition, they swing through many of these pitches for strikes. That's good! However, this chart shows there are other concerns with the curve: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 307] CB LD% FB% HR/FB% 2012 24.8 27.4 11.6 2013 19.4 35.5 36.4 [/TABLE] Mainly, batters are hitting more curves in the air and many more over the fence. That's bad! It's still early, but not a great sign so far. Let's look at his change: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 323] CH Contact% Zone% SwStr% 2012 79.6 38.2 9.9 2013 90.6 46.4 4.4 Average (2012) 79.7 44.9 9.1 [/TABLE] His change was a pretty average pitch last year, but as his third pitch, it worked. This season, players are making better contact and rarely missing that pitch. He's throwing it in the zone more, and it's getting hit more. Not a great combo. Finally, here's a very small chart regarding his fastball: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 171] FB GB% 2012 56.5 2013 48.3 [/TABLE] Basically, the decline of Diamond's ground ball rate can be almost fully correlated to the decreasing percentage of ground balls Diamond has coaxed with his fastball. If you add it all up, Diamond has basically been this pitcher in 2013: A league-average ground ball pitcher, with low strikeout totals and a good walk rate. In 2012, Diamond was a ground ball pitcher with low strikeout totals and an elite walk rate. These aren't major differences, but enough to turn a good pitcher into a shaky pitcher. All that being said, it is still very early and I won't be convinced that Diamond is a different pitcher until at least a full season passes. Analysis! Now on to the Madness: Random Paint Image http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6BrODrCoooM/UZliXDRYS1I/AAAAAAAAAsI/fqKRIHNotTU/s320/Scott+Diamond.png I choose to remember this Scott Diamond, being ceremoniously carried off the field by his teammates after a series of spectacular starts. Random Plug/Former Twin Update - Randy Ruiz Ben Noble of Puckett's Pond posted a feature on a former Twin. I fondly remember Randy Ruiz and I hope you do too. Plus, Ben's a really good dude and a great writer. If you remember Randy Ruiz as fondly as I do, you should check it out. Random Photoshop Byron Buxton hit a walk-off grand slam on Wednesday night. It was a bomb. Buxton has basically become the "next big thing" and fans are starting to clamor for Buxton's debut sooner rather than later. I don't know anything about his realistic ETA, but I do know that Nikola Pekovic of the Minnesota Timberwolves was clearly impressed, as he updated his crazy tattoo after he heard about Buxton's feat: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DpPLNpMv5iw/UZlieopHsqI/AAAAAAAAAsQ/iTQH5x5MDA0/s320/pek418.jpg Good gravy, that tattoo is crazy. Answering a random question from the Twins' Facebook page: Q: Best movie ever...where is The Beast? For context, this question was posted in reference to a picture of "Squints" and "Ham" from The Sandlot. A: The Beast probably died 10-15 years ago. A dog of that size likely had a lifespan of about 8-10 years. The dog was likely at least 2 or 3 when the movie was filmed and the movie is now 20 years old. Thanks for asking though, it's a super uplifting topic to discuss. While on the topic of The Sandlot, how come only two of the actors were present for this weekend? What are any of those guys doing right now? Shouldn't the Twins have been able to get 5 or 6 of those guys, at minimum. I bet if you give them free airfare, 20 bucks and the chance to talk to people who think they're cool, they'd all be there. Typical cheap Twins, slashing payroll and stiffing Sandlot actors. Embarrassing. Random Top 12 List Here are the Twins' leaders in wRC+ for the month of May (as of 5/19/2013): Joe Mauer - 228 Oswaldo Arcia - 132 Trevor Plouffe - 123 Justin Morneau - 123 Jamey Carroll - 115 Pedro Florimon - 112 Ryan Doumit - 108 Aaron Hicks - 89 Chris Parmelee - 74 Eduardo Escobar - 55 Josh Willingham - 55 Brian Dozier - 19 Something I wrote I'm not going to link to them, but I have been recapping the past 25 Twins' drafts over the last week or so, and I'll have 1997 posted on Twins Daily tomorrow. I have been posting a new draft recap each day, on my blog - Kevin Slowey was Framed! This seems like a good time to thank Twins Daily for putting my 1993 recap on the front page. A lot of people read my recaps as a result; far more than I could generate on my own. I think it is downright amazing that John, Seth, Nick and Parker are so willing to share their hard-earned following with all of us aspiring writers. Thanks to everyone who operates this site, it is hands down my favorite site on the internet. Something stupid I wrote I'll link to this though. I'm not sure this even qualifies as writing, but it is stupid. What is Oswaldo Arcia doing with his arms? I have 13 theories, and a bonus Paint image to boot. Also, I did start a Facebook group for some reason. There are six likes, which is five more than I expected. If you are interested, you can find and like it here. Haiku The Twins may be down I refuse to frown or drown Haiku should not rhyme Have a nice week everyone!
  10. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Weekend Recap Welp. The Twins weren't really supposed to be good or even decent this season, so a 2-7 homestand isn't crazy. It's more disappointing, after what seemed like a such a positive start. Regardless, this franchise is clearly trending upward, even if this past week doesn't reflect that. The thing that struck me the most from the weekend was another shaky Scott Diamond start. I did a detailed breakdown of Diamond's 2012 and concluded that 2012 Scott Diamond was a good pitcher and if he can replicate what he did in 2012, he could have long-term success. You can read it here, if you missed it back in February. I looked at Diamond's stats from the first half of 2012 (when Diamond was a borderline Ace), the second half of 2012 (when Diamond was good, but not great), and the start of this season (when Diamond looks like he might be regressing). What is different? Here's a chart with Diamond's peripherals: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 612] [/TD][TD]K% BB% LOB% GB% LD% FB% HR/FB HR/9 BABIP xFIP ERA 2012 1st Half 13.9 3.7 79.3 59 20.3 20.7 14.8 0.91 0.285 3.57 2.61 2012 2nd Half 11.6 4.9 68.6 48.9 21.5 29.6 9.5 0.86 0.298 4.23 4.31 2013 9.8 5.5 70.6 47.4 19.7 32.8 13.3 1.36 0.318 4.62 4.99 League Avg (2012) 19.8 8 72.5 45.1 20.9 34 11.3 1.02 0.293 4.01 4.01 [/TABLE] 2013 Scott Diamond has looked a lot more like the 2012 second half Scott Diamond. He's getting fewer ground balls, and more of his fly balls are going over the fence. His walk rate is ticking upward and his strikeout rate is ticking downward. These numbers need to start reversing, or Diamond will have a very difficult time replicating his 2012 success. I looked at some PitchF/x data as well. The samples are small, so there isn't much significance. However, some trends are evident. Looking at this chart, it appears that his curveball is as good as ever: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 322] CB O-Swing% O-Contact% SwStr% 2012 48.2 52.4 15.2 2013 46.7 48.6 15 Average (2012) 29 63.8 9.1 [/TABLE] Batters still swing at a very high percentage of his curve outside the zone and they still make little contact. In addition, they swing through many of these pitches for strikes. That's good! However, this chart shows there are other concerns with the curve: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 307] CB LD% FB% HR/FB% 2012 24.8 27.4 11.6 2013 19.4 35.5 36.4 [/TABLE] Mainly, batters are hitting more curves in the air and many more over the fence. That's bad! It's still early, but not a great sign so far. Let's look at his change: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 323] CH Contact% Zone% SwStr% 2012 79.6 38.2 9.9 2013 90.6 46.4 4.4 Average (2012) 79.7 44.9 9.1 [/TABLE] His change was a pretty average pitch last year, but as his third pitch, it worked. This season, players are making better contact and rarely missing that pitch. He's throwing it in the zone more, and it's getting hit more. Not a great combo. Finally, here's a very small chart regarding his fastball: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 171] FB GB% 2012 56.5 2013 48.3 [/TABLE] Basically, the decline of Diamond's ground ball rate can be almost fully correlated to the decreasing percentage of ground balls Diamond has coaxed with his fastball. If you add it all up, Diamond has basically been this pitcher in 2013: A league-average ground ball pitcher, with low strikeout totals and a good walk rate. In 2012, Diamond was a ground ball pitcher with low strikeout totals and an elite walk rate. These aren't major differences, but enough to turn a good pitcher into a shaky pitcher. All that being said, it is still very early and I won't be convinced that Diamond is a different pitcher until at least a full season passes. Analysis! Now on to the Madness: Random Paint Image http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6BrODrCoooM/UZliXDRYS1I/AAAAAAAAAsI/fqKRIHNotTU/s320/Scott+Diamond.png I choose to remember this Scott Diamond, being ceremoniously carried off the field by his teammates after a series of spectacular starts. Random Plug/Former Twin Update - Randy Ruiz Ben Noble of Puckett's Pond posted a feature on a former Twin. I fondly remember Randy Ruiz and hopefully you do too. Plus, Ben's a really good dude and a great writer. If you remember Randy Ruiz as fondly as I do, you should check it out. Random Photoshop Byron Buxton hit a walk-off Grand Slam on Wednesday night. It was a bomb. Buxton has basically become the "next big thing" and fans are starting to clamor for Buxton's debut sooner than later. I don't know anything about his realistic ETA, but I do know that Nikola Pekovic of the Minnesota Timberwolves was clearly impressed, as he updated his crazy tattoo after he heard about Buxton's feat: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DpPLNpMv5iw/UZlieopHsqI/AAAAAAAAAsQ/iTQH5x5MDA0/s320/pek418.jpg Good gravy, that tattoo is crazy. Answering a random question from the Twins' Facebook page: Q: Best movie ever...where is The Beast? For context, this question was posted in reference to a picture of "Squints" and "Ham" from The Sandlot. A: The Beast probably died 10-15 years ago. A dog of that size likely had a lifespan of about 8-10 years. The dog was likely at least 2 or 3 when the movie was filmed and the movie is now 20 years old. Thanks for asking though, it's a super uplifting topic to discuss. While on the topic of The Sandlot, how come only two of the actors were present for this weekend? What are any of those guys doing right now? Shouldn't the Twins have been able to get 5 or 6 of those guys, at minimum. I bet if you give them free airfare, 20 bucks, and the chance to talk to people who think they're cool, they'd all be there. Typical cheap Twins, slashing payroll and stiffing Sandlot actors. Embarrassing. Random Top 12 List Here are the Twins' leaders in wRC+ for the month of May (as of 5/19/2013): Joe Mauer - 228 Oswaldo Arcia - 132 Trevor Plouffe - 123 Justin Morneau - 123 Jamey Carroll - 115 Pedro Florimon - 112 Ryan Doumit - 108 Aaron Hicks - 89 Chris Parmelee - 74 Eduardo Escobar - 55 Josh Willingham - 55 Brian Dozier - 19 Something I wrote I'm not going to link to them, but I have been recapping the past 25 Twins' drafts over the last week or so, and I'll have 1997 posted on Twins Daily tomorrow. I have been posting a new draft recap each day, on my blog - Kevin Slowey was Framed! This seems like a good time to thank Twins Daily for putting my 1993 recap on the front page. A lot of people read my recaps as a result; far more than I could generate on my own. I think it is downright amazing that John, Seth, Nick and Parker are so willing to share their hard-earned following with all of us aspiring writers. Thanks to everyone who operates this site, it is hands down my favorite site on the internet. Something stupid I wrote I'll link to this though. I'm not sure this even qualifies as writing, but it is stupid. What is Oswaldo Arcia doing with his arms? I have 13 theories, and a bonus Paint image to boot. Also, I did start a Facebook group for some reason. There are six likes, which is five more than I expected. If you are interested, you can find and like it here. Haiku The Twins may be down I refuse to frown or drown Haiku should not rhyme Have a nice week everyone!
  11. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Weekend Recap Welp. The Twins weren't really supposed to be good or even decent this season, so a 2-7 homestand isn't crazy. It's more disappointing, after what seemed like a such a positive start. Regardless, this franchise is clearly trending upward, even if this past week doesn't reflect that. The thing that struck me the most from the weekend was another shaky Scott Diamond start. I did a detailed breakdown of Diamond's 2012 and concluded that 2012 Scott Diamond was a good pitcher and if he can replicate what he did in 2012, he could have long-term success. You can read it here, if you missed it back in February. I looked at Diamond's stats from the first half of 2012 (when Diamond was a borderline Ace), the second half of 2012 (when Diamond was good, but not great), and the start of this season (when Diamond looks like he might be regressing). What is different? Here's a chart with Diamond's peripherals: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 612] [/TD][TD]K% BB% LOB% GB% LD% FB% HR/FB HR/9 BABIP xFIP ERA 2012 1st Half 13.9 3.7 79.3 59 20.3 20.7 14.8 0.91 0.285 3.57 2.61 2012 2nd Half 11.6 4.9 68.6 48.9 21.5 29.6 9.5 0.86 0.298 4.23 4.31 2013 9.8 5.5 70.6 47.4 19.7 32.8 13.3 1.36 0.318 4.62 4.99 League Avg (2012) 19.8 8 72.5 45.1 20.9 34 11.3 1.02 0.293 4.01 4.01 [/TABLE] 2013 Scott Diamond has looked a lot more like the 2012 second half Scott Diamond. He's getting fewer ground balls, and more of his fly balls are going over the fence. His walk rate is ticking upward and his strikeout rate is ticking downward. These numbers need to start reversing, or Diamond will have a very difficult time replicating his 2012 success. I looked at some PitchF/x data as well. The samples are small, so there isn't much significance. However, some trends are evident. Looking at this chart, it appears that his curveball is as good as ever: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 322] CB O-Swing% O-Contact% SwStr% 2012 48.2 52.4 15.2 2013 46.7 48.6 15 Average (2012) 29 63.8 9.1 [/TABLE] Batters still swing at a very high percentage of his curve outside the zone and they still make little contact. In addition, they swing through many of these pitches for strikes. That's good! However, this chart shows there are other concerns with the curve: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 307] CB LD% FB% HR/FB% 2012 24.8 27.4 11.6 2013 19.4 35.5 36.4 [/TABLE] Mainly, batters are hitting more curves in the air and many more over the fence. That's bad! It's still early, but not a great sign so far. Let's look at his change: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 323] CH Contact% Zone% SwStr% 2012 79.6 38.2 9.9 2013 90.6 46.4 4.4 Average (2012) 79.7 44.9 9.1 [/TABLE] His change was a pretty average pitch last year, but as his third pitch, it worked. This season, players are making better contact and rarely missing that pitch. He's throwing it in the zone more, and it's getting hit more. Not a great combo. Finally, here's a very small chart regarding his fastball: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 171] FB GB% 2012 56.5 2013 48.3 [/TABLE] Basically, the decline of Diamond's ground ball rate can be almost fully correlated to the decreasing percentage of ground balls Diamond has coaxed with his fastball. If you add it all up, Diamond has basically been this pitcher in 2013: A league-average ground ball pitcher, with low strikeout totals and a good walk rate. In 2012, Diamond was a ground ball pitcher with low strikeout totals and an elite walk rate. These aren't major differences, but enough to turn a good pitcher into a shaky pitcher. All that being said, it is still very early and I won't be convinced that Diamond is a different pitcher until at least a full season passes. Analysis! Now on to the Madness: Random Paint Image http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6BrODrCoooM/UZliXDRYS1I/AAAAAAAAAsI/fqKRIHNotTU/s320/Scott+Diamond.png I choose to remember this Scott Diamond, being ceremoniously carried off the field by his teammates after a series of spectacular starts. Random Plug/Former Twin Update - Randy Ruiz Ben Noble of Puckett's Pond posted a feature on a former Twin. I fondly remember Randy Ruiz and hopefully you do too. Plus, Ben's a really good dude and a great writer. If you remember Randy Ruiz as fondly as I do, you should check it out. Random Photoshop Byron Buxton hit a walk-off Grand Slam on Wednesday night. It was a bomb. Buxton has basically become the "next big thing" and fans are starting to clamor for Buxton's debut sooner than later. I don't know anything about his realistic ETA, but I do know that Nikola Pekovic of the Minnesota Timberwolves was clearly impressed, as he updated his crazy tattoo after he heard about Buxton's feat: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DpPLNpMv5iw/UZlieopHsqI/AAAAAAAAAsQ/iTQH5x5MDA0/s320/pek418.jpg Good gravy, that tattoo is crazy. Answering a random question from the Twins' Facebook page: Q: Best movie ever...where is The Beast? For context, this question was posted in reference to a picture of "Squints" and "Ham" from The Sandlot. A: The Beast probably died 10-15 years ago. A dog of that size likely had a lifespan of about 8-10 years. The dog was likely at least 2 or 3 when the movie was filmed and the movie is now 20 years old. Thanks for asking though, it's a super uplifting topic to discuss. While on the topic of The Sandlot, how come only two of the actors were present for this weekend? What are any of those guys doing right now? Shouldn't the Twins have been able to get 5 or 6 of those guys, at minimum. I bet if you give them free airfare, 20 bucks, and the chance to talk to people who think they're cool, they'd all be there. Typical cheap Twins, slashing payroll and stiffing Sandlot actors. Embarrassing. Random Top 12 List Here are the Twins' leaders in wRC+ for the month of May (as of 5/19/2013): Joe Mauer - 228 Oswaldo Arcia - 132 Trevor Plouffe - 123 Justin Morneau - 123 Jamey Carroll - 115 Pedro Florimon - 112 Ryan Doumit - 108 Aaron Hicks - 89 Chris Parmelee - 74 Eduardo Escobar - 55 Josh Willingham - 55 Brian Dozier - 19 Something I wrote I'm not going to link to them, but I have been recapping the past 25 Twins' drafts over the last week or so, and I'll have 1997 posted on Twins Daily tomorrow. I have been posting a new draft recap each day, on my blog - Kevin Slowey was Framed! This seems like a good time to thank Twins Daily for putting my 1993 recap on the front page. A lot of people read my recaps as a result; far more than I could generate on my own. I think it is downright amazing that John, Seth, Nick and Parker are so willing to share their hard-earned following with all of us aspiring writers. Thanks to everyone who operates this site, it is hands down my favorite site on the internet. Something stupid I wrote I'll link to this though. I'm not sure this even qualifies as writing, but it is stupid. What is Oswaldo Arcia doing with his arms? I have 13 theories, and a bonus Paint image to boot. Also, I did start a Facebook group for some reason. There are six likes, which is five more than I expected. If you are interested, you can find and like it here. Haiku The Twins may be down I refuse to frown or drown Haiku should not rhyme Have a nice week everyone!
  12. Well, when you guys figure out when you want to call up Gibson, let me know so I can watch his first start.
  13. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1733-25-Minnesota-Twins-Drafts-in-25-Days-1993
  14. Welcome back! In my never-ending quest to recap old drafts (feature ends June 4), I present to you, 1993, in all it's glory: The 1992 draft was a nightmare, but the 1993 draft was like the morning after a nightmare when you realize that none of what you experienced was real and that you are safe in your own bed, but then ohhhh there's blood on your pillow but wait it's just that your tooth fell out because you haven't been to the dentist in years and everything's fine except the tooth. You know, that old tale. 1st Round Picks Oh my, the Twins had 4 this year. They received two picks for losing John Smiley to free agency. If you remember back to the 1989 draft, you remember that Smiley was acquired in a trade for Denny Neagle, so that 1989 draft is the gift that keeps on giving. Also, the Twins received a first and a third when Greg Gagne signed with the Royals. So, the Twins selected Torii Hunter with their first first-round pick, which worked out well. They had the very next pick and selected Jason Varitek. He did not sign. They then got cocky and decided to draft by choosing hilarious names and selected Marc Barcelo and Kelcey Mucker with their next two firsts. Neither made the Majors, but both have funny names. Mission accomplished! ~~~ Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! where you can also find draft: 1991 and 1992 if you missed them. ~~~ Ah, but what if? Simple - what if Varitek had signed? He would have been the catcher for years, and likely would have bridged the gap to A.J. Pierzynski. Also, Scott Rolen went 46th overall, so he would have been great had the Twins employed a strategy where good players were sought instead of great names. Best Player Drafted Torii Hunter in a landslide. He has produced almost 50 WAR and was an extremely popular player in Minnesota. I wrote something long ago (six months ago) that investigated what could have happened if he had stayed in Minnesota through last season. You can read it here and enjoy it here as well. Worst Player to Reach MLB A lot of players drafted by the Twins in 1993 made it to the Majors. Many didn't play long, so the career WARs are bunched together. The worst was Kelly Dransfeldt with a -0.6 WAR. The Twins drafted him in the 7th round and he didn't sign. Therefore, the worst Twins draftee/signee is a tie between their 21st and 22nd round picks - Shane Bowers and Rob Radlosky. The fact that both made it to the Majors is remarkable, so we can ignore their stats. The One Who Got Away Varitek. Aren't you paying attention? Best Name Danny Peoples in round 59 of course. Fun Facts The Twins had four first-round picks, as I stated before. Only one donned a Twins uniform. How does one don? Benj Sampson was drafted in the 6th round and marks the first player with a missing letter in his name to be drafted to the MLB. Congratulations Benj! The Twins used their 3rd-round compensation pick on Troy Carrasco, who did not make it to the Majors. The Twins drafted Toby Dollar in the 4th round out of a Texas High School. He did not sign. He then must have had an illustrious career at TCU because he was drafted in the 29th round by the Dodgers three years later. Cost himself a lot of Dollars. Jason Varitek hates Minnesota. All those drafted who made it to the Bigs Torii Hunter, Jason Varitek, Alex Cora, Lance Carter, Danny Kolb, Javier Valentin, Kevin Ohme, Benj Sampson, Dan Perkins, Emil Brown, Ryan Radmanovich, Rob Radlosky, Kelly Dransfeldt, and Shane Bowers One Sentence Summary Even if only Torii Hunter had made it to Minnesota, the 1993 draft would have been a huge success.
  15. I think Bollinger does a good job especially when you consider that he works for the Twins (I'm assuming) and that he can't really be critical. For me, I read him because I like the access he has, I think he is a good writer and he seems like a nice guy. In that position, that works for me. I mostly follow him on Twitter, where I feel like he does a good job of reporting the facts. I get most of my analysis from bloggers, so when I'm looking for a different type of information, Bollinger seems to always have it.
  16. In Parks' recent BP chat he expressed exactly how I feel about Eddie Rosario: Here is the link to the rest of the chat: Baseball Prospectus | Events | Chat with Jason Parks
  17. I think Rhett Bollinger and Brandon Warne are both really good at their jobs. Bollinger has so much access, but he doesn't come off as a Twins shill, at least not to me. He's a good reporter and adds great insight. Warne is good with numbers and stats, but he integrates them cleanly and clearly. He seems to have a good finger on the fan pulse too.
  18. He's a 21-year-old professional athlete. I'd say it's almost certain that he is.
  19. I would hope so, both legs all at once is a great way to fall down a staircase.
  20. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Welcome back! In my never-ending quest to recap old drafts (feature ends June 4), I present to you, if you missed them: 1991 1992 Here's 1993, in all it's glory: The 1992 draft was a nightmare, but the 1993 draft was like the morning after a nightmare when you realize that none of what you experienced was real and that you are safe in your own bed, but then ohhhh there's blood on your pillow but wait it's just that your tooth fell out because you haven't been to the dentist in years and everything's fine except the tooth. You know, that old tale. 1st Round Picks Oh my, the Twins had 4 this year. They received two picks for losing John Smiley to free agency. If you remember back to the 1989 draft, you remember that Smiley was acquired in a trade for Denny Neagle, so that 1989 draft is the gift that keeps on giving. Also, the Twins received a first and a third when Greg Gagne signed with the Royals. So, the Twins selected Torii Hunter with their first first-round pick, which worked out well. They had the very next pick and selected Jason Varitek. He did not sign. They then got cocky and decided to draft by choosing hilarious names and selected Marc Barcelo and Kelcey Mucker with their next two firsts. Neither made the Majors, but both have funny names. Mission accomplished! Ah, but what if? Simple - what if Varitek had signed? He would have been the catcher for years, and likely would have bridged the gap to A.J. Pierzynski. Also, Scott Rolen went 46th overall, so he would have been great had the Twins employed a strategy where good players were sought instead of great names. Best Player Drafted Torii Hunter in a landslide. He has produced almost 50 WAR and was an extremely popular player in Minnesota. I wrote something long ago (six months ago) that investigated what could have happened if he had stayed in Minnesota through last season. You can read it here and enjoy it here as well. Worst Player to Reach MLB A lot of players drafted by the Twins in 1993 made it to the Majors. Many didn't play long, so the career WARs are bunched together. The worst was Kelly Dransfeldt with a -0.6 WAR. The Twins drafted him in the 7th round and he didn't sign. Therefore, the worst Twins draftee/signee is a tie between their 21st and 22nd round picks - Shane Bowers and Rob Radlosky. The fact that both made it to the Majors is remarkable, so we can ignore their stats. The One Who Got Away Varitek. Aren't you paying attention? Best Name Danny Peoples in round 59 of course. Fun Facts The Twins had four first-round picks, as I stated before. Only one donned a Twins uniform. How does one don? Benj Sampson was drafted in the 6th round and marks the first player with a missing letter in his name to be drafted to the MLB. Congratulations Benj! The Twins used their 3rd-round compensation pick on Troy Carrasco, who did not make it to the Majors. The Twins drafted Toby Dollar in the 4th round out of a Texas High School. He did not sign. He then must have had an illustrious career at TCU because he was drafted in the 29th round by the Dodgers three years later. Cost himself a lot of Dollars. Jason Varitek hates Minnesota. All those drafted who made it to the Bigs Torii Hunter, Jason Varitek, Alex Cora, Lance Carter, Danny Kolb, Javier Valentin, Kevin Ohme, Benj Sampson, Dan Perkins, Emil Brown, Ryan Radmanovich, Rob Radlosky, Kelly Dransfeldt, and Shane Bowers One Sentence Summary Even if only Torii Hunter had made it to Minnesota, the 1993 draft would have been a huge success.
  21. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Welcome back! In my never-ending quest to recap old drafts (feature ends June 4), I present to you, if you missed them: 1991 1992 Here's 1993, in all it's glory: The 1992 draft was a nightmare, but the 1993 draft was like the morning after a nightmare when you realize that none of what you experienced was real and that you are safe in your own bed, but then ohhhh there's blood on your pillow but wait it's just that your tooth fell out because you haven't been to the dentist in years and everything's fine except the tooth. You know, that old tale. 1st Round Picks Oh my, the Twins had 4 this year. They received two picks for losing John Smiley to free agency. If you remember back to the 1989 draft, you remember that Smiley was acquired in a trade for Denny Neagle, so that 1989 draft is the gift that keeps on giving. Also, the Twins received a first and a third when Greg Gagne signed with the Royals. So, the Twins selected Torii Hunter with their first first-round pick, which worked out well. They had the very next pick and selected Jason Varitek. He did not sign. They then got cocky and decided to draft by choosing hilarious names and selected Marc Barcelo and Kelcey Mucker with their next two firsts. Neither made the Majors, but both have funny names. Mission accomplished! Ah, but what if? Simple - what if Varitek had signed? He would have been the catcher for years, and likely would have bridged the gap to A.J. Pierzynski. Also, Scott Rolen went 46th overall, so he would have been great had the Twins employed a strategy where good players were sought instead of great names. Best Player Drafted Torii Hunter in a landslide. He has produced almost 50 WAR and was an extremely popular player in Minnesota. I wrote something long ago (six months ago) that investigated what could have happened if he had stayed in Minnesota through last season. You can read it here and enjoy it here as well. Worst Player to Reach MLB A lot of players drafted by the Twins in 1993 made it to the Majors. Many didn't play long, so the career WARs are bunched together. The worst was Kelly Dransfeldt with a -0.6 WAR. The Twins drafted him in the 7th round and he didn't sign. Therefore, the worst Twins draftee/signee is a tie between their 21st and 22nd round picks - Shane Bowers and Rob Radlosky. The fact that both made it to the Majors is remarkable, so we can ignore their stats. The One Who Got Away Varitek. Aren't you paying attention? Best Name Danny Peoples in round 59 of course. Fun Facts The Twins had four first-round picks, as I stated before. Only one donned a Twins uniform. How does one don? Benj Sampson was drafted in the 6th round and marks the first player with a missing letter in his name to be drafted to the MLB. Congratulations Benj! The Twins used their 3rd-round compensation pick on Troy Carrasco, who did not make it to the Majors. The Twins drafted Toby Dollar in the 4th round out of a Texas High School. He did not sign. He then must have had an illustrious career at TCU because he was drafted in the 29th round by the Dodgers three years later. Cost himself a lot of Dollars. Jason Varitek hates Minnesota. All those drafted who made it to the Bigs Torii Hunter, Jason Varitek, Alex Cora, Lance Carter, Danny Kolb, Javier Valentin, Kevin Ohme, Benj Sampson, Dan Perkins, Emil Brown, Ryan Radmanovich, Rob Radlosky, Kelly Dransfeldt, and Shane Bowers One Sentence Summary Even if only Torii Hunter had made it to Minnesota, the 1993 draft would have been a huge success.
  22. That would be fantastic. I would love nothing more than to find out that Arcia is a huge Beatles fan.
  23. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! The Minnesota Twins are going through a bit of a rough patch. The White Sox are terrible, but hit the Twins hard today and won the series. The Twins rotation is not performing. Mike Pelfrey seems jolly, but that's not enough. Vance Worley has cool glasses, but that's not cutting it. Pedro Hernandez is a lefty, but even that isn't getting the job done. In addition, there are questions about the offense. Is Josh Willingham slumping or getting old? Is Chris Parmelee an everyday player? Is Aaron Hicks breaking out or just simply not historically awful anymore? Is Trevor Plouffe wearing more and more eye-black, in some sort of ritualistic manner to try to voodoo his way to success against right-handed pitching? These are all legitimate questions, but not questions that interest me at all. I am most concerned with what Oswaldo Arcia is doing with his arms when he makes this motion: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CNHIlQ27XUQ/UZQo0GmaCCI/AAAAAAAAAr4/H-GSklXiuPk/s320/oswaldoo.png Also, why is he so happy? Anyway, here's a link to a picture, if you are into accurate representations. Back to the question at hand, what is Arcia doing? Someone stated that it's some sort of team-building symbol invented by Wilkin Ramirez. I'M NOT BUYING IT! Body language is universal, so I should be able to decipher what is meant when Arcia makes that "o" shape with his arms without being told. I have theories, which I present to you without commentary: Asking for more Ovaltine, please Cracking walnuts for some of the smaller and weaker players Creating a self-picture frame, in order to assist people when they take pictures (or draw pictures) of him Spelling out his name, one letter at a time, with the intent unveiling a new letter every few weeks Advertising for O.co Telling Pedro Florimon that he loves him "this much" Trying to turn into a hot air balloon Creating the number zero, in a subtle homage to his favorite player of all time: Junior Ortiz Ripping Joe Mauer for not hitting more home runs Only one country starts with the letter "O" and that is Oman; he just learned that and is really excited to tell people about it Asking Ron Gardenhire to make him some eggs Trying to relate to Anthony Swarzak by flashing a crop circle sign to him, while in the bullpen It's not intentional, it's just how he stands normally What is he really doing? You be the judge. If you have theories of your own, please share.
  24. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! The Minnesota Twins are going through a bit of a rough patch. The White Sox are terrible, but hit the Twins hard today and won the series. The Twins rotation is not performing. Mike Pelfrey seems jolly, but that's not enough. Vance Worley has cool glasses, but that's not cutting it. Pedro Hernandez is a lefty, but even that isn't getting the job done. In addition, there are questions about the offense. Is Josh Willingham slumping or getting old? Is Chris Parmelee an everyday player? Is Aaron Hicks breaking out or just simply not historically awful anymore? Is Trevor Plouffe wearing more and more eye-black, in some sort of ritualistic manner to try to voodoo his way to success against right-handed pitching? These are all legitimate questions, but not questions that interest me at all. I am most concerned with what Oswaldo Arcia is doing with his arms when he makes this motion: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CNHIlQ27XUQ/UZQo0GmaCCI/AAAAAAAAAr4/H-GSklXiuPk/s320/oswaldoo.png Also, why is he so happy? Anyway, here's a link to a picture, if you are into accurate representations. Back to the question at hand, what is Arcia doing? Someone stated that it's some sort of team-building symbol invented by Wilkin Ramirez. I'M NOT BUYING IT! Body language is universal, so I should be able to decipher what is meant when Arcia makes that "o" shape with his arms without being told. I have theories, which I present to you without commentary: Asking for more Ovaltine, please Cracking walnuts for some of the smaller and weaker players Creating a self-picture frame, in order to assist people when they take pictures (or draw pictures) of him Spelling out his name, one letter at a time, with the intent unveiling a new letter every few weeks Advertising for O.co Telling Pedro Florimon that he loves him "this much" Trying to turn into a hot air balloon Creating the number zero, in a subtle homage to his favorite player of all time: Junior Ortiz Ripping Joe Mauer for not hitting more home runs Only one country starts with the letter "O" and that is Oman; he just learned that and is really excited to tell people about it Asking Ron Gardenhire to make him some eggs Trying to relate to Anthony Swarzak by flashing a crop circle sign to him, while in the bullpen It's not intentional, it's just how he stands normally What is he really doing? You be the judge. If you have theories of your own, please share.
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