2wins87

This article is from a little while back, but it makes it pretty clear that both the Twins and Morneau want him to be playing first base again in the future: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120401&content_id=27803664&vkey=news_min&c_id=min He seems like he's feeling comfortable so far, might as well start easing him back into it sooner rather than later. As far as Parmelee goes, I have to agree with tn49, don't make him into something he isn't. He's got a bright future, but more likely as a role player than a regular. Give him time to prove himself, but don't be surprised if opposing pitchers start picking him apart after teams start scouting him more thoroughly. Hopefully he can adjust quickly, but these things generally take time. Remember how Wilson Ramos struggled after exploding in his first two games? Parmelee's made it longer but did it September when pitchers are a bit more worn down and spring training where performance really doesn't correlate too strongly with the regular season.

What happened to Mastroianni? I thought he'd be on this roster.

145 games: I'll go under, around 135, because I think the Twins will be cautious and give him off days even if he is entirely healthy, although if his production continues to hold up through the all-star break they may try to keep him in the lineup. 110 games at DH: I'll go under, around 75 because I think Parmelee will finally start to struggle a few months into the season once teams start scouting him more heavily and exposing his weaknesses, and Morneau will start getting significantly more starts there as the organization and Moirneau both gain confidence in his durability. 35 games at first: over, 60, for the same reason .270/.340/.490: over, .285/.350/.505, this is pretty bullish, but if you look what he's done when healthy the last few years, a .270 BA and .490 slugging seem like the absolute minimum, so I'm going to be optimistic and say that he really does return to form this year. (I'm assuming 550 PAs here) 21 HRs: over, 25, Target Field depresses his potential here a little bit, but he's still got the strength to hit it out to right field 30 doubles: over, 36 91 RBIs: over, 100

I doubt Revere has a lot of trade value. He'd be a 4th outfielder on most clubs, and may still end up there for the Twins. I think Span could get a very good return. Benson will also likely be able to generate a good return, but it's unlikely the FO is thinking of shipping him anytime soon and they probably shouldn't be. I'd be interested to see what kind of prospects Span could pry from a playoff contender looking for a table-setter near the trade deadline. I'd think a potential impact guy in the upper levels plus one or two interesting guys at the lower levels. Maybe the Twins could end up with a couple power pitching prospects.

From everything I've heard, he has the tools to be a plus center-fielder, and has performed well there in the minors. Similar speed to Span, much better arm, good body control (whatever that means). So yeah, I think he really is a center-fielder, but that doesn't mean the Twins won't move him to keep Span in center or to make room for Hicks to come up behind him. His arm would play well in right field. An outfield of Revere-Span-Benson, or Revere-Hicks-Benson could swallow a lot of fly-balls.

The mlb should have reduced the season back to 154 games and made the new wildcard playoff best of three (if they were determined to have it). But yeah, I don't see the owners ever agreeing to a shorter season.

Dozier has played about 2/3 of a season at AA and none at AAA or the majors. At this point it's unlikely that he'd be any better in the lineup this year than Casilla (who is actually having quite a nice spring so far) will be. So I don't see why so many people want to skip him to the majors so quickly. He'll be turning 25 soon so I don't this service time and options should factor into the Twins decision, but I do think he needs more seasoning at this point and guys like Chang and Holliman are better options to be a bench or utility guy for the Twins.

I liked this article a lot. It shows why I still think he could be a #2 starter while a lot of people think he's a back of the rotation starter at best. He knows his stuff and he understands how to throw it to get the most out of it. I have to make a comparison with the way Greg Maddux pitched, though obviously I don't think Hendriks will be nearly as successful as Maddux. Madux had a seriously plus changeup and curveball, and paramount command, while Hendriks has probably a plus changeup right now and very good command. But Maddux is a first ballot hall of famer who probably didn't have hall of fame stuff. I see Hendriks as a #2 who has back of the rotation stuff. I think Hendriks has shown a great ability to out-pitch guys not overpower them, so the question is whether he will be able to keep it up against major league hitters who have better discipline and more trained eyes. I'm optimistic, others aren't, so we'll have to see how he pans out.

Nice article. I've been feeling the same way that there have been a good number of promising relief performances this spring. I think it shows that while dominating relievers aren't easy to come by, serviceable ones are a dime a dozen. A lot of fans had been clamoring for the Twins to sign one of the free agent relievers; while it would have been nice to have a little more depth at the top of the bullpen, I'm not convinced that any of them would have significantly better than these replacement level options. They maybe would have been worth 2 wins through bullpen, but I don't think 2 wins does it for the Twins this year. I agree with previous commenters on Burnett. I've seen enough, it's time for someone else to take his spot. I'm not very bullish on Gutierrez turning into a stud. He's had 4 years in the minors to develop some command, and has shown no signs that he's going to do it. Averaging a walk every other inning isn't going to cut it (especially with the Twins). When his strikeouts drop off a bit and homeruns tick up a bit against mlb hitters, he's not going to look good.

I wouldn't start him over Casilla yet, he's still a prospect who needs to continue to develop, which is why I also wouldn't put him in Nishioka's backup role. If Nishioka proves completely futile then I'd give Holliman a shot before rushing Dozier to the majors. I also have to note that before last season he wasn't seen as much of a prospect, so while he may turn into an above average mlb shortstop, we really haven't seen enough from him yet for that to be likely. So I'm hoping he'll show us something more in AAA this year.

Also note this whimsical evidence that Frankie will have a good year: All of his good years--2006, 2008, and 2010--have been even numbered. This bodes well for 2012.

I was thinking the same thing. I chose Liriano mostly out of a gut feeling, though he certainly has the potential. Baker's consistency probably makes him the front runner.

In my defense, the last time I checked, two was still a number. But yeah, I was going off memory and thought there was another one or two in there. But my point is that the franchise has a long history in it's own right, which makes them a good club to be affiliated with IMO. They also have had at least one direct flight per day for at least the last year. I've gotten one for around $270 which I was quite happy about.

I think Doyle is a given, I don't see the Twins just letting him head back to Chicago after using a rule 5 pick on him. Also I like the way Matt Maloney has pitched in his very small sample size so far. Maybe the Twins keep him on instead of Burton if they want another left handed arm in the bullpen? Can't really argue with your choices though.

Wow a LOT of misconceptions here. I've been living in Rochester for the last few years attending graduate school here. So I'm sure I have a better handle on the city than any of the previous commenters. Ok, so it's not nearly as great as Minneapolis/St. Paul (though not many places are). I'm not going to say I love it, but it's really not that bad. It's certainly has gone through a decline, which actually started a while ago. It was once one of America's richest cities per capita when George Eastman was still around and Eastman-Kodak was one of the most innovative companies in the world. It was hit hard by the shift to global manufacturing and also Kodak's bungling of the switch to digital photo technology. The city is still a shell of what it used to be, but it actually fared well through the last recession, better than any other city in New York state. This is in part due to the investments in higher education made a long time ago by Eastman, and the history as a technology center, which has led to a reasonable number of small tech start-ups often founded by ex Kodak, Xerox, and Bausch & Lomb employees. If anything it's getting better now. As with any city that has gone through industrial decline, there are certainly some troubled spots. But I certainly wouldn't classify it as a dump. I don't plan on staying here after grad school, but it hasn't been terrible living here. And with a million people in the metro area, it's not a booming city but there aren't many bigger markets for a AAA team out there. Certainly not Rochester, MN or Duluth. The Red Wings' franchise has gone through a number of affiliation changes, but has been in Rochester for over a hundred years, giving it one of the longest histories in any one city of any franchise at any level. This, I think, is a point of pride for some fans of the team, who actually care more about the team than who they are affiliated with. With what the Twins have given the team over the last couple years it's no surprise that some fans would be a bit antsy. But I think it's a good affiliation for the Twins to have, and just going by feel I'd say I probably see about as much Twins paraphernalia around the city as I do Yankees gear, which is unexpected in any city in New York where the Yankees have such a huge fan base. So I have to think that being a Twins affiliate makes at least some difference. I'd have to think that if anything, the Rochester ownership would dump the Twins affiliation for another team before the Twins chose another affiliate. But the franchise certainly won't go anywhere, and I at least hope it keeps its affiliation with the Twins a little longer so I can see the Twins' prospects come through while I'm here.

Another thing that helped Perk out a lot last year was limiting the long ball. 0.29 HR/9 with 4.3% HR/FB. You'd expect that his home run rate would drop after moving to Target field, but it actually skyrocketed in 2010. In fact it was the worst in his career at 1.25 HR/9 with 14.3% HR/FB. It was twice as bad as a starter than as a reliever, but still, not good. Which one was a fluke? (Or which was more flukey?) Hard to say, projections vary a lot. Bill James' projection system is really down on him projecting a 4.94 ERA, rotochamp is much better projecting a respectable 3.45 ERA. It probably depends on how much these rating systems weigh past seasons. I'm hopeful that last year was closer to the future, because I think he's actually been going through a transformation as a pitcher, not a rediscovery. When he came up in 2006 he was a fastball/curveball/change-up guy, and a flyball pitcher. In 2008 he added a slider and phased out his curveball. In the process he has steadily turned into a groundball pitcher. Last year he threw his slider more than ever and it was better than ever, as you've noted in the article. His peripherals and success have also consistently been better as a reliever than as a starter as thrylos noted. I think this will end up being a very good contract for the Twins.

I like the Twins farm system, I think it is deep, there are a lot of players that could develop into something good, I wish we had one or two guys that legitimately profiled as #1 starters (let's not kid ourselves, having guys we hope could be #1s isn't the same thing as having guys we believe will be #1s), but overall it's a strong enough system to suit most of the Twins needs. Still, I understand the claim. Sano could be an All-star, I certainly think Rosario could be. But most people aren't holding their breath for Benson, Arcia, Hendriks and Gibson. Benson and Arcia are both great prospects that are close to the majors but both have the same big hole in their game: strikeouts. Gibson and Hendriks are both proven pitchers but lack the stuff to truly be great. So the Twins don't have anyone in the upper levels right now that looks ready to step up and become a star right now. There's no one that will force the Twins to make room for them. I think that's ok. Those kind of guys don't come around all that often, and it's hard to find guys that have everything together and will move through the system quickly when you are drafting 20th or later every year. So I don't think the Twins do have that star in the upper levels of their system, but neither do a lot of other teams, and I like our depth and the prospects that we do have. Maybe when you hear it you think people are dissing all of the prospects in the upper levels. I don't really see it that way. The Twins have a bunch of guys that are ready to fill holes soon, and could develop into starters, but not that guy who everyone thinks will be an all star. If the Twins had that guy their farm system would probably be ranked in the top 5 or so. As it is, most people rank the system above average, and cite the lack of a future all star waiting in the wings as really the one area that's missing.

I wouldn't make too much of anything Souhan writes, but I do kind of see Revere as more of a defensive specialist / 4th outfielder. With no power and an unproven ability to get on base a lot in the majors (so far), I think it's very likely that that's where he ends up, especially with Benson, Arcia, and Hicks coming up behind him. I'd like to see both Plouffe and Revere get a lot of chances at least of the beginning of the season. A platoon sounds like the most ideal situation. Also, if Willingham can adjust to RF, I see no reason why he couldn't play RF with Revere in left and LF with Plouffe in right.

Here's a few pertinent splits: Between 2004 and 2007, Mauer hit 13 Home runs at the Metrodome and 22 in away parks. In 2008 He figured out how to hit for power in the Metrodome, hitting 7 at home, the most in a season there up to that point. We all know what happened in 2009, and in total, Mauer hit 23 home runs at the Metrodome and 14 at away parks in 2008 and 2009. Since moving to Target Field, Mauer has hit 1 home run at home and 11 in away parks. A lot has been made of how hitting at Target field has hurt his hitting on the road as well, but I don't really buy that. He hit 8 home runs at away parks in 2010, which is third in his career to 12 in 2009 and 10 in 2006. Last year he was injured and his hitting suffered everywhere. But I don't think his power has really dropped off that much on the road. The truth is, it's just hard to hit it out of Target Field, especially for a gap hitter like Mauer. As long as he plays at Target Field half of the year, I don't see him breaking 15 home runs in a season. Which assumes he can hit a healthy 10 or so on the road, but only a few more at home. But this won't really matter much if he can stay healthy, get on base, and play behind the plate on a regular basis. We'll see how that goes.

I agree that Giolitio would be my top choice right now due to his ceiling. Some make it sound like his command isn't far behind Appel's at this point. But I also wouldn't say that it's between Appel and Giolito at this point. Neither of them are anything near a lock for the top two spots. There are plenty of other guys that could surpass them with a good season: Gausman, Beck, Zimmer, Fried. I also wouldn't be opposed to them drafting Zunino or Marrero given the difficulty in finding guys at their positions, but I hope they go with a potential #1 starter because the farm system could really use one. I think ace is really optimistic on Salcedo. I think he has #1 starter potential (which is entirely different from ace in my opinion), but is much more likely to end up as a #2 or #3 guy.

12, two at home

After moving Plouffe to the outfield the Twins actually seem to have too many options in the outfield. You don't even mention Rene Tosoni. He struggled last year and will probably only top out as a fourth outfielder, but he has a .360 OBP in the minors, and if he's hot he could also help fill the hole. Obviously a healthy Span would be the best outcome for the Twins, but this is one of the least of my worries coming into this season.

Hmm. I'm getting multiple copies of several articles and a lot of untranslated html. Also no author info. In a similar vein, would it be possible to get a page that lists all of the rss feeds available from the site. It'd be nice to have a central location to use to subscribe to our favorite authors blogs etc.