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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    "Plodder" is a little harsh from what I've heard. He will have to hit though.
  2. 2wins87
    I hope that him being a starter is still in their long term plans. I assume that Perez has the 5th spot to start the season unless something significant happens in spring training. In that case I would rather Romero starts the season in kind of a swingman role in the majors than as a starter in the minors. And I would also hope that Romero would be stretched out into a starting role when someone goes down with an injury (when is the last time we've been trough an entire season without one of the starters going down for a significant amount of time), or if their plans for Pineda or Perez change due to ineffectiveness or some other circumstance.
  3. 2wins87
    Agreed although I think the #6 ranking is perfectly fine. The guys behind him have plenty of question marks or are far enough away that they still have a lot of downside risk. I don't have a great feel for what kind of percentages we should apply to different outcomes, but once a hitter has spent at least a full season at AA or above, I think the projection systems like Steamer and ZiPS start to give a pretty good idea of the median short term expectation (I'm less convinced that projection systems do a good job for minor league pitchers at any level). And you can ballpark a projection for modest improvements from there. Rooker's rate stat projections on Fangraphs from Steamer (the Twins always seem to be one of the last released for ZiPS) are solid for a rookie. So it looks like based on his stats the median projection should be for a bit above average offensive projection a couple years down the line. This would probably be enough to be a marginal major leaguer at 1B or DH but you're probably looking at a more optimistic end of his projection if he's going to be a long term starting DH. This is pretty much in line with expectations when he was drafted, and the floor has maybe moved up a bit.
  4. 2wins87
    Pretty unfair to be comparing him to Acuña and Soto. That was never even close to the expectation for Rooker (or it never should have been). I don't know what you were expecting from a college senior drafted 35th overall, but so far he's progressed pretty well, though the question marks that were always there haven't magically disappeared either.
  5. 2wins87
    I've learned to be skeptical of high strikeout power bats in the minors. It seems very tough to make the jump to the majors without a bit better contact rate. That said, I like the reports that I've heard on how much effort he puts into studying and improving his swing, and he seems to be a guy who can make adjustments. There's a pretty good optimistic case to be made, but I expect the adjustment period to the majors to be rough. Hopefully he makes it through.
  6. 2wins87
    http://www.statcorner.com/pitch.php?id=626929 No numbers on called strikes exactly, but all indications are that he gets plenty of swinging strikes, so I would guess that there is nothing out of the ordinary about his called strike rate. His contact rate is consistently below league average, his swinging strike rate comfortably above average, and his swinging K rate as a percent of all strikeouts seems to fluctuate around league average. All of this adds up to a guy who has gets lots of whiffs but without a go-to pitch.
  7. 2wins87
    I don't think it's entirely bad luck when Thorpe was getting hit since he was getting hit very hard. Most of the home runs and a lot of the other XBHs against him came early in the season. But his K and BB rates were pretty much the same all season, which is definitely sort of odd. The scouting reports suggest he's always going to get guys out more with deception and surprise, which makes me think part of his problem early in the season was probably that hitters knew or were guessing what was coming a lot more often than they should have. Have there been any reports on him changing sequencing? Or was he tipping his pitches somehow?
  8. 2wins87
    http://www.statcorner.com/bat.php?id=668731 Yes, he was K'd looking more often than league average but actually K'd swinging slightly less than league average. Also worth noting that his K rate in April and May was 32%, but he seems to have made some pretty big adjustments and his K rate was at 20% for the rest of the season. Not sure how his looking/swinging splits might have changed between those periods.
  9. 2wins87
    I was very discouraged by Littell's initial appearances in the majors, but honestly watched very little Twins baseball in September. Did his curve improve at all against major leaguers? He seemed incapable of getting whiffs with it in his first few appearances, but I know his numbers improved some in September. I can't see him ever having success in the majors without a better secondary. Gonsalves, for example, I could see having success throwing a higher rate of secondaries, but I think hitters will continue to sit on either Littell's fastball or curveball and the results won't be pretty for him.
  10. 2wins87
    I'm a big fan of Miranda right now. He'd be my pick from this group to be in the top 10 next year. He's got some power now but I think there's more to come. His line at Ft Myers was hurt a lot by bad BABIP luck (and if you add his plate appearances from the playoffs, where he raked, his batting line improves quite a bit too). As mentioned in the write up his peripherals mostly held up there, and its rare to see that kind of strikeout rate combined with power.
  11. 2wins87
    The top 100 list: 7 - Lewis 10 - Kirilloff 70 - Graterol
  12. 2wins87
    I sort of agree, though I think Lewis now would have been in the conversation with Sano for the #2 spot, and Kirilloff would probably have been a pretty easy choice over Meyer and Berrios for the #4 spot. Not sure about Graterol, but I'm thinking probably 7th ahead of Polanco. The grades were a little more generous back then (14 65+ grades and 34 60+ grades in 2014 vs 7 65+ grades and 21 60+ grades this year; it's not like the entire minor league is that much worse this year, if at all). This crop definitely doesn't measure up to 2014, but I wouldn't be surprised if next year it was in the same range with a bit more depth after the top 10.
  13. 2wins87
    I could be wrong, but I think they updated some grades after the draft, but haven't changed any since then. Gordon and Gonsalves probably have reason to go down half a grade. I would expect Javier holds having not played. I think Larnach could go up half a grade since I'm pretty sure the 50 was his grade at draft time and making quick adjustments to pro ball can sometimes make grades go up a bit. Not sure it will and even if it does it doesn't guarantee him a top 100 spot. I think they usually have at least 110 or so 55+ grades. I agree on the depth of the system. The good news is that the top guys have gotten better, but there's a bit of a gap in the 50-55 range. But given how many guys there are a bit below that, they could have a lot of depth there next year if just a few guys make some strides. It'll be interesting to compare the list at the end of this year to the post 2012 and 2013 lists. Assuming Kirilloff and Lewis retain their eligibility and the FO doesn't start selling off lots of pieces for major league assets, I have to assume it'll have more depth all the way down.
  14. 2wins87
    Can you imagine how much people would have railed on the pick if the Twins had taken Adell 1st overall? Plenty of people were already upset about Lewis.
  15. 2wins87
    The top 100 will be released tomorrow, but the top 10 positional lists are all out now. Twins' prospects on the positional lists are: 1B: #5: Brent Rooker - Overall scouting grade 50 - https://www.mlb.com/news/peter-alonso-leads-2019-top-10-first-basemen/c-302793136?tid=151437456 He won't make the top 100 with a 50 overall grade, my guess is that his grade/rank puts him somewhere in the 120-175 range. SS: #2: Royce Lewis - Overall grade 65 - https://www.mlb.com/news/mlbs-top-10-shortstop-prospects-for-2019/c-302965234?tid=151437456 His grade puts him as high as 4th or as low as 7th on the overall list OF: #4: Alex Kirilloff - Overall grade 60 - https://www.mlb.com/news/mlbs-top-10-outfield-prospects-for-2019/c-303024268?tid=151437456 His grade and rank among outfielders puts him as high as 9th or as low as 19th on the overall list Graterol didn't make the loaded top 10 RHP list, but I would guess there are at least 20 more RHP on the top 100, so we'll see where he ranks tomorrow. The other outside shot at the top 100 would be Larnach who missed the top 10 OF list but could potentially be among the few more outfield prospects who make the top 100. He was a 50 grade on the midseason list so he'd have to gain half a grade to make it, which is possible considering his strong debut.
  16. 2wins87
    Jeffers has actually gotten solid defensive reviews in his professional debut. I've actually heard a bit more concern (from John Sickels for one) over whether his offensive production holds up when he faces more advanced pitchers given that he was older than a lot of his competition this year. Given how well he's hit so far that's not really all that discouraging to hear. He'll just need to go out and continue to prove it. I'm feeling optimistic about him right now. I think there's a very realistic chance he turns into a starting backstop for the Twins a few years down the line.
  17. 2wins87
    Although I'm still curious if any of the writers have thoughts they would share on where he might slot on a prospect list.
  18. 2wins87
    Ah. I did not realize that. Astudillo must be a pretty rare case that he's been around that long, hasn't passed rookie limits, and still has a decent amount of MLB upside which could still be realized.
  19. 2wins87
    Given his history as a prospect this is maybe fitting, but Willians Astudillo is not in the book even though he's still Rookie eligible and probably a good enough prospect to crack everyone's top 50 (at most).
  20. 2wins87
    You'll have to take that up with Seth I guess. Garver would have passed rookie limits sometime in early to mid May by service time and/or MLB at bats.
  21. 2wins87
    Still not clear whether Balazovic and Enlow end up as backend starter prospects or something better. I can't tell if the way Molitor utilized the bullpen made it really hard for prospects to emerge or if the upside just wasn't as high there as was generally anticipated. I'm not sure when in the past the org has really had better pitching prospects overall. I guess with Gibson, Berrios, Meyer, and May there was a ton of upside.
  22. 2wins87
    Surpassed rookie limits so no longer a "prospect".
  23. 2wins87
    Good to see Vasquez moving up to AAA even though his first appearance didn't go all that well. I still don't understand why he spent so much time in A+ this year but once he proves that his repertoire works on AAA hitters it's just a matter of time before he gets a taste of the big leagues.
  24. 2wins87
    Most of the AA and AAA relievers have been doing this over the past month or two. So yes it seems to be an organizational strategy, probably not something they'll implement in the majors next year but they're clearly preparing their high minors relievers (and starters) to be used to it, so it seems likely that they'll want to try it with the big league club sometime in the future. If your relievers are good enough then I can see the utility, since your reliever gets to face the other teams best hitters the first time through the order, and once you get to the third time through the order they've still only seen your actual starting pitcher once. Your 4th and 5th relievers have to actually be better than your starting pitcher for the opener to make sense though. I feel like there have been quite a few runs scored off of the AA and AAA openers, though probably less than I think given I probably mostly only notice the times it doesn't work great.
  25. 2wins87
    I think Jorge Polanco's first cup of coffee was directly from Ft Myers. This was because he was already on the 40-man as an international signee and the Twins needed a fill in for an injury. He hit pretty well in a limited number of at bats.
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