I doubt Appel holds out at number 2, truth be told. He'd have cost us the full 5% more, no question. Even if he did, we'd be looking at 3 and 5 this year. The big issue I take with your post is the risk aversion to pitching. The problem is that to be successful, you have to have good pitching. This system is pretty void in that right now, and it's going to be a big issue for the next wave if they don't bring in more high upside talent. The problem with developed high upside talent is that it's impossible to get past AA and very expensive to get prior to that. They have a shot to add a Bundy, Tallison, etc. to their farm for the cost of the signing bonus, and they'd be silly not to do that. I get that there's risk, but this is where too much risk aversion can cripple a franchize, because the reward is higher too. They have to get some pitching. My personal strategy for this draft would be to draft one of Gray/Appel/Stewart and stock up on the strenghts of this draft, which is highschool pitching and catching. This draft seems fairly deep in those areas and they happen to be needs as well. We have enough cash that I think we would be able to sign some of those guys, regardless of who we take at 1-4.