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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    To be honest, I personally find this odd given the names already leaked. Then again, what do I know? I really hope you're right..... JDL + Alvarez + 3rd piece (Stewart or Ruiz are my preferences) seems like a pretty decent deal for BD. Now that said, I just want this done.. I've got to think LA has the prospect currency to get it done. They just do...
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    I hate basketball, but given they field 5 vs what is essentially 14 starters, I'd have to think things are looking better for the Wolves than the Twins.... if those players are really the NBA equivalent to the ones you mentioned... might not be this year, but as those guys come into their own, the Wolves will be a force to recon with.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    I think once Dozier lands, the Twins can decide what to do with Santana. I'd argue that if BD goes to LA for De Leon and Stewart, then all of a sudden, there's a glut in the rotation and Ervin gets shipped off for a top 100 prospect and one or two more lotto tickets. But until they know what the return is, Ervin has to wait.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    I personally think you're selling Escobar a bit short. I'd give him another shot at SS and see if his 2016 down year was health related. Not sure if I'd spend big other than picking up RP options that can be flipped at the deadline or cast aside if a guy like Melotakis or Chargois steps up. I really want to see the Twins get some of their younger players in the pen, which means having spots for those two along with Hildenberger, Burdi, or Reed.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    That's fine... it's one thing to note they failed to trade Dozier (which if it happened, they did)... It's completely different though to assume that had this really good offer on the table and chose to reject it otherwise (which are what Chitown and I are saying).
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    No, not really. Saying we don't know what was on the table acknowledges ignorance that we all share. Out of ignorance, simply giving them the benefit of the doubt is hardly unreasonable. On the other hand, assuming they had a good offer is essentially an assumption of incompetence... Now if reports come out that say that the front office turned down De Leon, Alvarez, and Bellinger, you'd have a point.... but since you don't know.. and we don't know... let's just lay off the accusations and accept the fact that we dont' know.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    So let's all do everyone a favor if he doesn't get traded and not make assumptions on whether or not the FO walked away from perfectly good offers or bad ones...
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    Reading MLBTR, he hasn't played since 2014 too and will need time... This is a smart move on LA's part, but this is just as much taking a flier on a minor league contract and adding depth to the system as anything.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    Again... 28 minor league contract That should tell you a lot. This guy is plan B or C. Not plan A.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    Well... the problem with entry level statistics in the context of baseball players is a little problem called small sample size and career arc, especially when sample sizes are in years and Dozier's professional career has spanned only 8 years and only 4.5 of said years have been at the professional level. It's one thing to remove an outlier when you have a bazillion data points, but you're literally removing 20-25% of his major league career in calling it normalization. Basic statistics assumes a lot more data points than what you're working with here. That's the flaw in the reasoning. I think it's very reasonable to assume that BD can put in 30+ HR seasons over the next two years. Home runs aren't luck driven, even the saber crowd will acknowledge that. Dozier has shown he can adjust to ML pitching, and short of health issues or suddenly being caught using PEDs, he's a pretty good bet to continue at that pace for a few more years.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    28 years old minor league contract no ML experience. This is probably plan B or C, even if they get Dozier.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    When people are discussing a 14-15 WAR for De Leon being a net win, I feel it necessary to make that point especially since that isn't even the floor of the deal.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    That I agree, the trade needs to be made. I'm more in the place that says 'walk away if it's a bad trade.'
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    One note on WAR after reading the last few pages I've missed. 10-14 WAR over 6 years is not greater than 8-12 WAR over 2. It's just not. If De Leon hits 12 WAR over a 6 year period, he was an OK pitcher for the Twins, not what we needed. Now granted it won't be a flat 2 WAR a year across that 6 years, but that still doesn't give me a lot of warm and fuzzies about a De Leon/Dozier straight up trade. And that is before you talk about risk. LA has to add more... they have to... and not throw in types. Someone asked me before what I'd take... Here's a few combos (just assume De Leon is the main piece) Alvarez, Stewart (you can sub pretty much anyone in Sickles 2017 list from 4-12 for Stewart) If Alvarez is out.. Stewart, (one of the guys in that 4-7 range), Ruiz (might take Lux here as a sub).
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    Welcome to the site. I think those names (Wisler and Blair) have come up already. Not a bad 2nd piece, but I don't think this gets done without Allard and likely Newcomb. Just my two cents.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    Oh it was... just a minor heart attack.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    Sickles ranked him 11 in 2016 in LAs system with a B- rating. That's pretty similar to Stewart right now (ranked 10th with the same grade). By your definition, Stewart is the throw away prospect. You're right, guys like that have value (and I've made it clear I'd be happy with Stewart as one of the pieces back). But as you put it, he's a throw away prospect, and there's a reason for it. The risk is quite a bit higher, and usually guys like that need time adjusting to the show... usually more time than guys like Berrios and De Leon will (hopefully) need. The Twins can give them the time in 2017. It's the lopsided risk that they are absorbing in this situation that makes a package of De Leon + Stewart weak. More is needed.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    Lots of Braves fans really seem to think he's a fit in ATL. They certainly have the system to get it done. I think the Dodgers are a better fit with De Leon and Stewart being key pieces and ML ready, but I don't think it's an accident that we keep seeing their name. http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1202261-why-the-braves-should-trade-for-brian-dozier
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    Now is when I note that I'm highly skeptical of defensive stats. I get what you're saying there... and if there's no one that that looks like they can do better than those types of numbers, then by all means, take the OF. I'm not saying otherwise. Based on what I've read thus far though, I'm pretty skeptical that Kendell is the guy. The main issue I have with Kendell is that he's a toolsy OF in a system full of toolsy OFs. If he's the clear cut cream of the crop, you take it. I don't have issue there. I just don't see the gap. I'd note the Royals nearly gave up on Gordon as well. He was a can't miss prospect that took a lot longer to turn into that guy they wanted him to be.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    You are correct, I didn't re-read what I said... That first deal (De Leon, Stewart, Ruiz, upside guy) isn't that frame work... if they went quantity, upside guy would still be a decent spec in their top 20. I'm pretty high on Ruiz personally, so maybe that's my own mistake, but upside guy would be a 20-30 in their system and that doesn't come close. I'd probably be pushing hard for one of their OF guys at that point.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    Let's try and circle this one back around a bit. I understand the idea, but this a bit more than attacking the idea. I don't think anyone (at least most of us) think the Dodgers aren't good at developing prospects. I do however recognize that they are just that... prospects. Some will pan out, some won't. Just because they come from a system that has done a good job doesn't equate to that meaning that these guys will necessarily be good. That's where the risk comes into play, and it's why we need more than De Leon plus spare parts.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    yes
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    I've got to disagree with the second sentence. The Dodgers have plenty of depth in their system. If they don't have that, then really no one does. Just looking John's rankings, the Dodgers and Atlanta are probably both top 5 systems. It would not be hard to find 3-4 prospects in that system to meet the Twins' requirements. The issue is that the Dodgers don't want to give up that much. That, to be fair, is part of negotiations. If they came to the deal easily, I'd be a bit more concerned. Everyone knows that Dozier is going to cost them something, and it's going to be both quality and quantity I suspect. Using Sickles: De Leon is the top prospect Bellinger is #2 Alvarez is #3 Calhoun is #6 (probably on the edge of the top 100) Stewart is #10 Ruiz is #11. But getting their 1, 10, 11 and some C+ HS rookie baller with upside is very reasonable, just as getting their 1,3, and 10/11 if you want more quality. We aren't talking about 3 top 100 prospects. We are talking about 2 top 100s along with a couple more in the top 250. Those aren't unreasonable asks, but I can certainly see the angst on their end. That's a lot to give up, and certainly worth bargaining hard.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    Honestly though, if that's the advice, then it really means you should put little stock into projections at all. They are all generally rosy, especially if you're adding up every team's projections and seeing results that say 80+ wins. Yeah, some can hit the low side, but if this is true, they miss high far more than they miss low.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    The other real problem is time value. I doubt you see a De Leon at the deadline. If he's still pitching well, he's in the rotation essentially making him untouchable. You may be looking at a fast rising Buehler in that scenario, but it puts us back a year too. De Leon is the mix for the rotation this spring, Buehler will not be.
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