John Bonnes

Opportunity almost always chooses to knock when you’re stuck on the phone talking to tech support. She does not accommodate your schedule. You play on hers, or you don’t play. This offseason, the Twins will face that reality, because they have a small window to accomplish something they’ve been waiting to do for years. This offseason is the single best – and maybe only – chance to lock up three of the Twins most important players to long-term deals that keep them in Minnesota beyond their initial free agent years. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are all in the sweet spot to negotiate a long-term deal.I understand this is not terribly convenient, which brings us back to Opportunity. You may feel like it’s too early. You may not trust Sano’s health. You may not trust Rosario’s plate discipline. You may not trust Buxton’s batting average. You may want to focus on a lot of other issues, like how to fix the pitching staff or who is going to fill the spots on the coaching staff. I mean, do we really need to decide this right now? Opportunity recognizes this is hard. She also does not care. She must leave after this offseason and here is why. All three of these players have over two years and under three years of major league service time. Which means this is the last year they’ll be making between $550,000 and $600,000. That’s a lot of money, but it isn’t “lifetime security” money. So if something happens – a concussion, a blown-up knee or suddenly they just can’t hit – they are left to their own devices for the rest of their careers. If the Twins want to wait until next year, the players and their agents might still be willing to listen, but at this time next year they’ll each be in line for a guaranteed salary of $3M-$5M. That is at least close to “lifetime security” money. And they get it whether they negotiate a long-term deal or not. So if you want to lock them up – either because you want to save money or because you want to guarantee they stick around for some free agent years – now is the best time. At a high level, that means making a sizable commitment. Each deal will likely require five guaranteed years and at least $28M, something like $1M/$3M/$5.5M/$8M/$10.5M. That’s the starting point. In this year’s TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook (it’s coming SOON), we’ll give you a chance to craft a more precise and fair offer for each of them, and also give you a handful of comparable recent deals to help you out. In the meantime, here are some questions to ask yourself and debate in the comments below, provided you have registered: Are you comfortable signing each player to a long-term deal?Which players are your priority if you can only sign one or two?How many years of team options do you want after the guaranteed money? It might be easier to tack three years onto the end for Buxton (who would still only be 31 years old when he finishes the deal) than Rosario (who would be 33 years old, and might want to hit the free agency a little sooner).Or are you uncomfortable with the whole idea? If so, Opportunity understands, but will you excuse her? She has other stops to make. Best of luck…. Click here to view the article

On the one hand, I think Molitor is a thoughtful guys who has proved himself fairly adept at handling the media, and that's a big part of the job. One also must look at the growth of the lineup and give him credit where it is due. On the other hand, I wonder a lot about his ability to develop a bullpen. Maybe some changes to the coaching staff can help with that. But the truth is that we are all in a really tough position when it comes to evaluating his performance and the guys above him are in a much better position for that. He must have done well enough that they trusted him more than their own hand-picked choice. I'm a little surprised by this, to be honest, but I'm certainly not in a position to know one way or the other what the inside story was. A 3-year contract (provided all years are guaranteed) is no joke. I'll be interested in the money to see just how much of a commitment they have made.

Aaron and John are at Rock 4 Rescues at Sociable Cider Works, talking about whether anything can be learned from the Al Wild Card game, John's trip to New York, the rumors (and silence) about an extension for Paul Molitor and a couple of questions about the offseason. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

The 2017 Minnesota Twins season came to an end last night in The Bronx with yet another loss to the New York Yankees in the playoffs. Following the game, Aaron Gleeman went into the KFAN studio and took phone calls from Twins fans for well over an hour with Eric Nordquist. The Twins Geek called in from Yankees Stadium after the game to discuss the game and the atmosphere, as well. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.You can listen to the postgame show in its entirety here. http://hwcdn.libsyn....51a1ebc86a197fd Click here to view the article

On Monday in New York City, the focus was on the 0-4 New York Giants, with a small portion left for the surprising “success” of the 2-2 Jets. But as Tuesday drew closer, the focus turned to the Baby Bombers and their Wild Card matchup with the Twins. How do Gotham’s writers and fans see this game? You can start below...Wondering how the Yankees roster and lineup will look Tuesday night? Yankees manager Joe Girardi isn’t saying, but Mike Mazzeo of the New York Daily News predicts it will be similar to what faced Ervin Santana two weeks ago. That means that Aaron Hicks will not be starting in center field. He also lays out the way Girardi would like to use his bullpen. Mazzeo writes that while Aaron Judge’s remarkable season is nice, Yankees players are judged (and revered) by their fans by their performance in October. The New York Times’ Billy Witz agrees, noting the difference between Mr. October and Mr. May. The New York Daily News’ John Harper sees a Yankees team that could make a surprise run this October - IF they can win a dicey one-game Wild Card versus the Twins. Meanwhile, if you want to throw up in your mouth, you can read the Daily News’ Frank Kilinski’s review of the Twins-Yankees postseason battles. Enough about the Yankees. The New York Posts’ Kevin Kernan wants to talk about Byron Buxton and how he could be a Yankees nightmare. Nice try at a reverse jinx, Kevin. You’re not fooling us. Meanwhile, the Post’s Ken Davidoff thinks it is a Yankees player, specifically Gary Sanchez, who will find himself in the spotlight. The video-heavy Newsday reports that Girardi expects a win, based on how his team has done in September. Newsday’s Erik Boland finds that a lot of that confidence is rooted in Luis Severino, the Yankees starting pitcher. That confidence may be reflected in how much Yankees fans are paying for tickets for Tuesday night’s game. Newsday’s Neil Best reports the prices are far higherthan for the last Wild Card game the Yankees found themselves in. In short, New York sees it the same way as the rest of the country, including Minnesota. The Yankees are favored, but it’s one game and anything can happen in one game. Whichever team loses will need to take solace in a bright future, albeit a future that will be a little more distant than the coming month. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John preview the Minnesota Twins' Wild Card game versus the New York Yankees. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

Our view of the 2017 Twins will be altered by time: softened and comforted. Today the view is more raw, and I want to embrace that. In the immediate aftermath, when I look at the victory we just witnessed, I see two traits that are the cornerstones of most victories: resilience and growth. “No matter how much falls on us, we keep plowing ahead. That's the only way to keep the roads clear.” - Greg KincaidIn mid-April, the Twins lost six of seven games in a week to division foes. In May, they lost five of six to Cleveland and Houston, which included one gut-wrenching loss and several drubbings. At the end of July they lost seven of eight and traded away a starting pitcher and their closer. Finally, just last week, they lost five of six in the midst of the Wild Card race. In each case they persevered. In each case they bounced back, most recently with a five-game winning streak. Also, to be fair, in each case their rivals kind of blew it. The Royals struggled badly out of the gate. Several Wild Card contenders stumbled shortly after the trade deadline. The Angels were getting swept themselves when the Twins were swept by the Yankees. But focusing on rivals’ problems need not be disparaging. The Twins did what the others could not – they persevered. It’s easy in today’s society to overlook Grit in the search for The Shiny. That is our failing. Grit is a differentiator. “My turn shall also come: I sense the spreading of a wing.” - Osip Mendelstam The Twins overall philosophy as a smallish market club has not changed. One can also find it with other teams and with families. The family grows with the kids. It invests in them, probably to its short-term detriment. And it does this in the hope that one day The Growth happens and raises everyone up. Baseball prospects get more early attention than ever before, and so the clock starts ticking earlier on them in the minds of the media and fans. It’s not surprising that we grow impatient. Eventually, we even grow impatient with the impatience. It took a while, but all those investments were paid back in full this August. When the season was on the brink, they Twins were led back from the ledge by the kids. The Twins went 20-10 in August, and the engine was their offense, which outscored the rest of the American League. A couple of veterans, Brian Dozier (1.023 OPS) & Joe Mauer (.863 OPS) paced the team, but the surge was driven by three guys under the age of 26: Jorge Polanco (1.099 OPS), Byron Buxton (.973 OPS) & Eddie Rosario (.944 OPS). None of them are going to keep up that pace for their careers, but none of them have fallen off a cliff in September, either. We’re sensing the spreading of wings. “The oak fought the wind and was broken, the willow bent when it must and survived.” – Robert Jordan I was not optimistic about this bullpen, and neither was Twins manager Paul Molitor. There have been times, like that terrible Houston series, where they have been more embarrassing than I could have imagined. There have been times where they were ranked dead last in ERA. In fact, by that metric, they’re still not … good. Their 4.45 ERA ranks 12th in the American League. But there is a better advanced stat for measuring bullpen efficacy: WPA. It measures the ability of the bullpen to turn a game into a win – or a loss. The Twins bullpen ranks 9th in the AL and has a value of .31, which means they’re about 1/3 of a win better than bullpens have historically been. That isn’t especially impressive, but …. This team traded away its closer, Brandon Kintxler, at the trade deadline. Their best reliever in the second half, Trevor Hildenberger, spent part of last year in High-A Fort Myers. Their current shutdown closer, Matt Belisle, was a late-season, low-cost free agent pickup who had a 5.82 ERA in the first half of the season. They are a collection of no-names who have kept it together to survive and protect the games they needed to protect. If a handful would have slipped away, the Twins are also-rans. They bent – a lot – but they did not break, and the team survived. “The lotus is the most beautiful flower, whose petals open one by one. But it will only grow in the mud.” – Goldie Hawn The Twins were supposed to have a thin starting rotation – and then they lost three arms: Trevor May, Hector Santiago, and Phil Hughes. That put a large burden on Ervin Santana, who served both as staff ace (especially early) and workhorse. However, the year was saved when the other 80% of the starts were taken by youngsters or pitchers who bloomed despite dealing with their share of mud. Jose Berrios has been a dependable #2 starter; his ERA was 8.02 last year. Adalberto Mejia, to quote the movie Clerks, wasn’t even supposed to be here. Neither was 44-year-old Bartolo Colon, who injected hope mid-season after posting an 8.14 ERA with Atlanta. And finally, Kyle Gibson, who had a 6.05 ERA and looked like he had pitched himself out of a baseball career in mid-August, posted a 2.56 ERA in his last seven starts, all of which the Twins won. The rotation hasn’t thrived, but it survived, and we’re seeing a couple of the petals open one by one. “Change may not always bring growth, but there is no growth without change.” ― Roy T. Bennett We may look back on the 2017 Twins the way we look back on the 1984 season or the 2002 season as a year of breakthroughs, a sign of things to come. Twins fans (and the Twins organization) have traveled a similar road, but that doesn’t make it any easier when one is lost and wondering if this path will go anywhere. This time, it did, but it took a lot of resilience and growth to get there. "We will either find a way, or make one." - Anibal Barca ~~~~ Click here to view the article

When Albert Einstein revolutionized universal theories, he didn’t use a lab. He used gedankenexperiments - thought experiments - to explore extreme situations. Doing so allowed him to explore truths beyond the normal course of thought. The AL Wild Card game is an extreme situation, and lends itself to a gedankenexperiment. It is: one gamethat counts for everything,but gets a full 25-man roster,and essentially has zero games before it (or maybe after) to use all the players on that roster.And so, I present the following gedankenexperiment: pick 25 Twins players, custom-picked to beat the Yankees in one game. It’s beyond our normal course of thought: suddenly a team doesn’t need a full rotation on the 25-man roster, or a full complement of a bench or bullpen. But what does one do with those 25 spots then? Well, that’s what the comments are for, and I trust this community to research the strengths and weaknesses of the Yankees team. But I’ll start with a few observations: Bring Left Handed Pitchers At a macro level, the Yankees are not bad against left-handed pitchers. They rank fourth in the American League against southpaws, thought that’s lower than they rank against right-handed pitching. But they have players who are very bad against left-handers, and two of them tend to sandwich the heart of their order. Brett Gardner, who leads off for the Yankees, has always been a little bit worse against left-handers, but he's still been on base against them at a .335 clip. When one bats in front of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, that's all one needs to do. But this year he's struggled bit, with just a .208 BA against southpaws and – most importantly - a .301 OBP. Beside his ability to get on-base, he can also steal bases, so to what extent one can, especially in later innings, he must face left-handed pitching. Batting right behind Judge and Sanchez lately is left-handed hitting Didi Gregorius. Gregorius has been as steady a performer as anyone could expect who had to follow Derek Jeter, and when a shortstop bats fifth in a lineup, he’s a mighty valuable commodity. But even though the 27-year old is having his best season, his biggest weakness – left-handed pitching – remains a weakness. This year he has just a .657 OPS against left-handed pitchers and that’s in line with his career. In the second-half of their lineup, Yankees manager Joe Girardi tends to alternate left-handed and right-handed hitters, so it’s not like a left-hander can mow through the rest of the lineup. But the only player down there who is legitimately scary against left-handers is Todd Frazier, which is probably why the Yankees traded for him mid-season from the White Sox. I’ll also postulate that where Frazier has batted is telling: he’s batted ninth lately, despite having a 775 OPS (albeit a .210 batting average) and crushing left-handers with a .932 OPS against them. Why is he batting so low? Whether Girardi talks about it or not, I bet it’s at least partly to protect Gardner, batting leadoff. Frazier forces opposing managers to go from left to right and back to left to keep the bases empty before getting to Judge and Sanchez. Anything that Girardi does not want is what I do want. Beyond southpaws Taylor Rogers and Buddy Boshers, I’d like Adalberto Mejia available to work out of the ‘pen. I’d also bring Gabriel Moya, even though he gave up a home run against left-handed hitting Efren Navarro last week. I’d even consider Nik Turley. That’s how serious I am about keeping Gardner off the bases and Gregorius from driving in Judge or Sanchez. (You might be wondering about Glen Perkins, and I wonder if the overall zeitgeist surrounding him ignores that he may yet be a decent LOOGY - Lefty One Out GuY. I agree, but this is not the time. He’s been crummy against both sides during this late-season stint. This one is on us, Glen. Enjoy the ride and get ready for March.) Bring Live Arms Back to Judge and Sanchez, there is no good way to attack them. Neither had been susceptible to right-handers or left-handers. Power pitchers have done quite a bit better against Judge than finesse pitchers, which makes sense given his strikeouts. Sanchez has had more success against fly ball pitchers than ground ball pitchers. But focusing on that is like craving more money. Duh. Everyone wants power pitchers that keep the ball on the ground. However, I would like to see Jose Berrios available in the ‘pen. Besides having the highest strikeout rate among the Twins starting pitchers, he’s held the opposition to a .212 batting average his first time through the order. (Full disclosure: he’s also been homer-prone early, so that’s a not an insignificant risk.) Beyond him, there aren’t too many surprise arms I want, though maybe I bring John Curtiss if I have room. Add A Right-Handed Bat Once the Twins decided to sell at the trade deadline, there was no longer any discussion about acquiring a right-handed bat. In some ways, it has become less critical – Joe Mauer, Jason Castro, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco have all hit left-handers better than one might expect. But there has still been Max Kepler. Kepler has had a little very recent success, but has hit just .149 against left-handers this year. If there are any pinch-hitting needs, that’s the glaring one. It would be nice if a limited Miguel Sano could provide the occasional pinch-hitting appearance, but the more likely answer is that Ehire Adrianza joins the roster as a one-time replacement. There really isn’t anyone else on the roster that deserves to be pulled in a matchup situation, unless Chris Gimenez starts over Jason Castro due to concerns for slowing down the Yankees running attack. So where does that leave us? Let’s list them out the obvious names and start counting down the rest. If you have your own lists, we have this revolutionary way, below the story, where you can share your own Gedankenexperiment – provided you REGISTER: The Starters 1 Robbie Grossman 2 Jason Castro (or Chris Gimenez depending on Castro’s ability to throw out runners. The Yankees will run.) 3 Joe Mauer 4 Brian Dozier 5 Eduardo Escobar 6 Jorge Polanco 7 Eddie Rosario 8 Byron Buxton 9 Max Kepler The Obvious Pitchers 10 Ervin Santana 11 Matt Belisle 12 Trevor Hildenberger 13 Taylor Rogers The Bench 14 Ehire Adrianza 15 Matt Garver (as a 2nd catcher, or maybe, Chris Gimenez. Not both) The Left-handers 15 Buddy Boshers 16 Adalberto Mejia 17 Gabriel Moya Live Arms 19 Jose Berrios 20 Alan Busenitz 21 Ryan Pressly The Final Spots 22 Nik Turley – Left-handed 23 John Curtiss – Power and had success in Yankee Stadium last week. 24 Zach Granite –There is a roughly 198% chance Molitor finds a reason to use a pinch-runner, so I’d better give him one. 25 Tyler Duffey – For whatever reason, he’s pitched well in the new Yankee Stadium. Sorry Chris Ginenez. You can still have champagne. This little experiment is not going to change the concepts of time, space and gravity. On the other hand, all three have seemed to aligned against the Twins whenever they faced the Yankees in recent years. A seemingly inevitable (knock, knock) Wild Card berth gives the Twins (and their fans) a little time to consider the extreme situation of playing in Yankee Stadium. Do you have the gedankens to put your alternate observations and theories below? Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins being on the verge of a playoff spot, lining up the rotation for New York, buying playoff tickets, the long journey from 59-103 to the postseason, Paul Molitor's job status, the biggest improvements in Twins history, choosing a Wild Card game roster, ugly WPA numbers vs. the Yankees, and mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

I know better. I know my ire surrounding Twins manager’s Paul Molitor’s bullpen usage is not really directed at Paul Molitor. It is directed at the baseball gods, for the baseball gods have given us these arms, arms that seem promising in spurts, but which have turned the sixth and seventh innings into a natural gas leak. The Twins are at least one arm short in the bullpen and the result has been a couple of close losses and a couple of comeback wins. But opposing teams know the Twins Achilles heel, and somehow, amazingly, it isn’t the starting pitching. It’s the middle innings, after the starters get to that third trip through the order but before Molitor douses the remaining embers with Trevor Hildenberger and Matt Belisle.(Incidentally, if you’re looking for a scenario in which the Twins blow this Wild Card lead – and Minnesotans are trained to do so - the easiest is that Trevor Hildenberger’s heavy usage results in him reverting to merely mortal. He’s never made more than 41 appearances in a season. Last year it was 38. This year he’s at 53 and climbing and also in uncharted territory for innings pitched, too. Sleep tight.) So I’m looking at the bullpen’s performances lately and looking for some hope. Let’s classify what I found. LEFTIES LIMITED TO MIX AND MATCH Molitor has signaled for lefthander Taylor Rogers a lot; his nine appearances in September now leads the bullpen. It would be nice if that was because he was returning to form. After all, he was outstanding early, leading to a lot of (over?)usage; his 65 appearances leads the team. Whatever the reason, he was no longer a reliable option from mid-July through August 23rd, posting a 7.43 ERA, while his walk rate spiked upward. But Molitor is now using him mostly in the role in which Rogers entered the season; he’s facing left-handers and not much else. He hasn’t pitched a full inning in almost two weeks. Similarly, Buddy Boshers is going through a small streak of effectiveness, and Molitor is utilizing him in the same way. He’s the third most used reliever this month, but has only thrown four innings. The truth is that other than Rogers’ remarkable start, neither has shown the ability to get right-handed hitting out in the minors or majors. They’re both useful, but neither seems likely to grow into a bullpen cornerstone. WAITING TO STEP UP A trio of right-handers in the bullpen, on the other hand, seem to have some upside, but seem to be stuck a couple steps short of excellence. Ryan Pressly was supposed to be a bullpen favorite by now. Hell, he was supposed to be so in April. In spring training there were reports of increased velocity for the 28-year-old, and that’s been true; per FanGraphs.com, his 96.2 mph velocity is the highest in his career. But his first few months were dismal, primarily because he just kept giving up home runs. His second half has been a lot better. His home run rate is halved, and he has a 2.48 ERA (and a .931 WHIP) since the all-star break. But over his five previous outings, he walked five guys (in 6.1 innings) and gave up 3 hits (and a run) in an inning last night. He still looks like he’s the best positioned to be the pitcher the Twins need in the playoffs, but he’s got to start having success in higher leverage situations. One more positive note: he also has “only” been used 52 times, which is 27 less than the Twins relied on him last year. A high level glance at a stat sheet suggests that Alan Busenitz is the obvious choice to take the next step. From a results standpoint, his ERA (1.65) and WHIP (.988) jump out. So does his 95.9 mph fastball. But great relievers need to be able to strike out batter. His 6.6 K/9 ratio is low for a reliever, and watching him it seem obvious that his second pitch, a curveball, isn’t doing enough to set up his fastball for clean swings and misses. Until he develops a better strikeout pitch combination, he looks like a true middle reliever, dependable in spurts but not overly reliable. That has also been the role this year for Tyler Duffey. The 26-year-old seems to have bounced back from his troubles last year, which were, oddly enough, mostly caused by right-handed batters. This year as a fulltime reliever, his fastball velocity is up a tick and so is his strikeout rate. His 4.61 ERA is worse than it should be given his other numbers. He’s been a perfectly acceptable reliever, especially given it is his first year in that role. But if he’s going to become dependable it’s going to be the way Brandon Kintzler and Belisle have become dependable, by pitching smart and professionally to leverage the maximum from his ability. That’s certainly not likely over the next two weeks. BLAST FROM THE PAST I’ll throw one more name in there, not because he’s a realistic candidate, but because he was perceived to be a candidate over the last two years, and has the velocity (94.2 mph average fastball) and strikeout rate (9.3 for his career) to be in this conversation. Did you know that Michael Tonkin is back on the roster? He is, and he’s been in three games, albeit blowouts, and they’ve gone relatively well, in that he hasn’t given up a home run yet. That’s Tonkin’s biggest problem. It was his problem last year, and it was the problem the year before, and he took that art from to a whole new level this April and May, giving up four home runs in his 11 innings, a truly impressive feat. Then he went to Rochester and gave up only one dinger in the 31 games (and 41.2 IP) in which he appeared. That might give some hope, except he did the same thing in AAA in 2015 (2 HR in 41 IP). And also in 2014 (2 HR in 45 IP). I guess I can’t blame Molitor for keeping Tonkin at arm’s length until he shows a little better track record in the majors, but I also have to wonder if Tonkin just doesn’t need a change of scenery. As one walks through the options, you can understand why Molitor seems to have so little trust in that group, a fact he demonstrated by having nearly all of them pitch less than an inning in a close game versus the Yankees last night. Whether some of them should have developed further over the year is an open question. How the new management team answers it will likely be a big story this offseason – but that is hopefully more than two weeks away. And should be, if this team can just find some relief. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' crucial series against the Yankees, the remaining schedules for the Twins and Angels, firing Doug Mientkiewicz, the fourth annual Twins Daily Touch 'Em All Pub Crawl, Kyle Gibson's latest turnaround, beating PECOTA, Blue Jays fans taking over Target Field, the history of the AL Central, Max Kepler's struggles, and bringing your own mayo. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

(knocking on wood furiously) The remaining schedules suggest that isn't so crazy. A lot of those scenarios look pretty challenging for the teams other than the Twins. But I also wonder if one of them won't get "hot" and suddenly reel off four wins in row, even versus a few good teams. The other thing I wonder about a little is the games in the last week of the season. For instance, the Twins play the Indians in the second to last series of the season. By then the Indians will have clinched. Might that work in the Twins favor? (And similarly for the Royals versus the Diamondbacks in the last series of the year.)

Yep they lost to Houston, and still have eight games versus the Astros and Indians. So now, to keep the pace in the story, they would need to win five of the remaining eight against those high-powered teams.

I very much like that every high leverage arm in the bullpen has had three days of complete rest.