John Bonnes

One of the best parts of getting the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is building your own Twins offseason blueprint. John Bonnes provides his below. You can do the same; just order the Handbook. The Twins were a good team in 2017, but they weren’t great. To truly contend, they need to make a couple of large leaps, and those leaps aren’t going to come from tightening up the bullpen, adding a middle-of-the-rotation starter or extending a veteran. They need to think bigger and they need to think beyond 2018.So with future greatness as the goal and a couple of unique opportunities available right now, here are the major moves I would like to see the Twins make this offseason. 1. Sign Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario to long-term deals with team options on the back-end. The first opportunity comes along only once in every player’s career – the offseason when a player has between two and three years of service time. For each one of these players, they’re guaranteed only around $550,000 next year, which isn’t “lifetime security” money. If the club waits even one more year, the player has millions guaranteed, and the Twins have far less leverage, costing them the chance to secure free agent years. For instance, the Twins can propose a $32.5 million, five-year deal for Buxton, with team options in years six and seven. The Twins get seven years of Buxton (instead of four), and Buxton gets paid, plus he is still a free agent while he’s only 31 years old. Similar deals could be made for Sano and Rosario. This is a rare chance to sign three offensive cornerstones and extend the Twins championship window several extra years. 2. Shop Brian Dozier I’m not saying “trade Dozier.” I’m saying the time to shop a player is when you don’t need to shop them. Also, when they are about to get old. Also, when they’re about to get expensive. And finally, the best time is just before they become a free agent. Our attachment to Dozier might blind us from these objective truths, but now is the time to explore trading him. Dozier is very good, but he’s not irreplaceable. He’s also 30 years. He’s going to be expensive, probably costing whoever signs him in free agency upwards of $15M/year. It would be a mistake to extend him, especially because there are other options. Jorge Polanco can move to second base, which upgrades the Twins defensively at both shortstop and at second base. Ehire Adrianza can play shortstop for the year, with Nick Gordon waiting in the wings. And unlike last year, the Twins don’t need to receive soon-to-the-majors, high-upside pitching prospects in a trade. This year, they can trade him for prospects or high-upside relievers or international money. The return could be significant. And if it isn’t, then hang on to him. 3. Sign Masahiro Tanaka to six-year, $136 million contract with a 3-year opt out. This was the original plan, but Tanaka decided on Friday NOT to opt out of his deal with the Yankees, which is a damn shame. So I’ll leave the original plan here and replace #3 with #3B below, since I now have a lot of money to spend…. Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are at the top of the free agency class and are both 31 years old. However, there is another ace-caliber pitcher who is only 28: Mashiro Tanaka, who appears likely to opt-out of a guaranteed 3-year deal with the Yankees for $67M. Tanaka has had health issues and may not be considered an “ace” yet, though his career ERA at this point last year was 3.12. His 4.74 ERA in 2018 might depress some interest in him, but he still struck out 9.8 batters per nine and walked only 2.1. His problem has been that he’s given up too many home runs. Well, yeah. He pitches at Yankee Stadium. Try Target Field on for size, Masahiro. If you dream of a Twins postseason team with an ace (in his prime) atop the rotation, this is your best chance of that for the next five years. Signing Tanaka raises payroll to $120 million and I didn’t do anything with the bullpen. Those incremental improvements will need to wait. Instead, I’m focusing on the opportunities that are here today. We can work out the smaller stuff next year. #3B. Sign relievers Juan Nicasio($21M/3 years) and Mike Minor($28M/4 years) Without Tanaka available, I don’t see a golden opportunity among the free agent pitchers, so instead I focus on either trying to fill a spot in the bullpen by signing CC Sabathia or stabilizing the bullpen. I like Sabathia because I liked the veteran presence that Bartolo Colon brought and Sabathia seems like he could play a similar role. But I chose the idea of bolstering the bullpen with a 1-2 punch from the left (Minor) and right (Nicasio). That move give manager Paul Molitor a core he can trust and allows the rest of the bullpen to settle in with internal arms that are developing. Maybe Hildenberger continues his breakout season. Maybe some guys get healthy, like Tyler Jay or JT Chargois. Maybe the new pitching coach helps Ryan Pressly or Tyler Duffey take their next steps. Minor and Nicasio provide a little buffer while the rest gets sorted out. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' offseason needs, limited free agent starting pitching options, Miguel Sano's surgery to insert a titanium rod into his leg, Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook, losing Daniel Palka and Randy Rosario on waivers, Rick Anderson joining Ron Gardenhire in Detroit, Duck Duck Gray Duck, Francisco Liriano winning a World Series, and reviewing the preseason AL Central over/under picks. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

Happy Offseason! At Twins Daily, we let Honus Wagner stare out the window and wait for spring. We dig in, with Twins talk every crazy day and we kick it off with our Offseason Handbook. It’s yours to download for whatever price you think is fair and has everything you’ll need to plan out your own offseason plan for your favorite baseball team. It includes: An analysis of the Twins payroll and how much they are likely to spend on free agents.A summary of free agent starting pitchers, relievers and right-handed hitters that would be prime targets for the Twins.A complete review of the organization’s depth, position-by-position, from the majors down to the rookie leagues.A summary of the arbitration decisions the Twins must make and their likely choices.Analysis of the top trade targets on the Twins.Essays by Twins Daily writers on special topics looking back at the season and at the upcoming offseason.A sample blueprint on a path the Twins could take in building for 2018 and beyond.We encourage you to check it out, make your own blueprint, and then follow along on Twins Daily as we track the Twins, their rumors, their news and the rest of the American League. C'mon - you’ve got some time this afternoon, so order it now and you’ll be able to download it immediately. Thank you for checking it out and for stopping by Twins Daily for your Twins fix. Click here to view the article

It’s almost here… the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook will be sent out at the last out of the World Series, but those folks who have preordered received Nick Nelson’s essay examining the trade market for Jorge Polanco. You can too - just pre-order it. As soon as you do (at whatever price you think is fair) you’ll be able to download Nick’s essay AND you’ll get the Handbook the moment it is released.If you even visit this site occasionally, you're going to love the Offseason Handbook. It lays out the whole offseason as if you were the Twins General Manager: the free agents, the trade options, the payroll limitations, and a complete organizational depth chart featuring all your minor league players. At the end, we share Nick Nelson's blueprint for what he would do if he was the GM, and this week other Twins Daily writers will share theirs. We invite you to share yours too, in the Forums. It makes a long cold offseason a whole lot more fun and we want everyone to have a chance to play with it, so you choose how much to pay. Again, pre-order it now, so you can get Nick's essay early! Click here to view the article

Aaron and John discuss new Twins pitching coach Garvin Alston, Glen Perkins career, John's attempt to run a half-marathon with the help of RxBars and their preseason picks in the AL East. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

Tired or waiting for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook? If you pre-ordered it, you got a sneak peek at it on Saturday night, when we sent out Parker's essay detailing how Byron Buxton's swing was rebuilt on the fly this season. And you can still get it! Just pre-order it. You'll not only immediately be able to download Parker's essay but you'll also get:1. Nick Nelson's essay on a prime trade target on the Twins and 2. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook as soon as the offseason starts, when the last out of the World Series is recorded. If you even visit this site occasionally, you're going to love the Offseason Handbook. It lays out the whole offseason as if you were the Twins General Manager: the free agents, the trade options, the payroll limitations, and a complete organizational depth chart featuring all your minor league players. At the end, we share Nick Nelson's blueprint for what he would do if he was the GM, and this week other Twins Daily writers will share theirs. We invite you to share yours too, in the Forums. It makes a long cold offseason a whole lot more fun and we want everyone to have a chance to play with it, so you choose how much to pay. Again, pre-order it now, so you can get Parker's and Nick's essays early! Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about Ron Gardenhire's return to the AL Central with the Tigers, the Twins' pitching coach search, their Friday night activities, Baseball America editor-in-chief John Manuel joining the Twins' scouting department, betting on Nick Blackburn, plugging books and handbooks, Delmon Young's clean slate in Australia, and the results of the preseason AL West over/under picks. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 If you would like to check out the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook which we talk about on this podcast, click on this: Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg Click here to view the article

Aaron and John react to the Twins manager Paul Molitor's contract extension, preview how much the Twins will have to spend this offseason, debate Brian Dozier's future with the Twins, and discuss whether or not Miguel Sano should play third base next year. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

Opportunity almost always chooses to knock when you’re stuck on the phone talking to tech support. She does not accommodate your schedule. You play on hers, or you don’t play. This offseason, the Twins will face that reality, because they have a small window to accomplish something they’ve been waiting to do for years. This offseason is the single best – and maybe only – chance to lock up three of the Twins most important players to long-term deals that keep them in Minnesota beyond their initial free agent years. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are all in the sweet spot to negotiate a long-term deal.I understand this is not terribly convenient, which brings us back to Opportunity. You may feel like it’s too early. You may not trust Sano’s health. You may not trust Rosario’s plate discipline. You may not trust Buxton’s batting average. You may want to focus on a lot of other issues, like how to fix the pitching staff or who is going to fill the spots on the coaching staff. I mean, do we really need to decide this right now? Opportunity recognizes this is hard. She also does not care. She must leave after this offseason and here is why. All three of these players have over two years and under three years of major league service time. Which means this is the last year they’ll be making between $550,000 and $600,000. That’s a lot of money, but it isn’t “lifetime security” money. So if something happens – a concussion, a blown-up knee or suddenly they just can’t hit – they are left to their own devices for the rest of their careers. If the Twins want to wait until next year, the players and their agents might still be willing to listen, but at this time next year they’ll each be in line for a guaranteed salary of $3M-$5M. That is at least close to “lifetime security” money. And they get it whether they negotiate a long-term deal or not. So if you want to lock them up – either because you want to save money or because you want to guarantee they stick around for some free agent years – now is the best time. At a high level, that means making a sizable commitment. Each deal will likely require five guaranteed years and at least $28M, something like $1M/$3M/$5.5M/$8M/$10.5M. That’s the starting point. In this year’s TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook (it’s coming SOON), we’ll give you a chance to craft a more precise and fair offer for each of them, and also give you a handful of comparable recent deals to help you out. In the meantime, here are some questions to ask yourself and debate in the comments below, provided you have registered: Are you comfortable signing each player to a long-term deal?Which players are your priority if you can only sign one or two?How many years of team options do you want after the guaranteed money? It might be easier to tack three years onto the end for Buxton (who would still only be 31 years old when he finishes the deal) than Rosario (who would be 33 years old, and might want to hit the free agency a little sooner).Or are you uncomfortable with the whole idea? If so, Opportunity understands, but will you excuse her? She has other stops to make. Best of luck…. Click here to view the article

On the one hand, I think Molitor is a thoughtful guys who has proved himself fairly adept at handling the media, and that's a big part of the job. One also must look at the growth of the lineup and give him credit where it is due. On the other hand, I wonder a lot about his ability to develop a bullpen. Maybe some changes to the coaching staff can help with that. But the truth is that we are all in a really tough position when it comes to evaluating his performance and the guys above him are in a much better position for that. He must have done well enough that they trusted him more than their own hand-picked choice. I'm a little surprised by this, to be honest, but I'm certainly not in a position to know one way or the other what the inside story was. A 3-year contract (provided all years are guaranteed) is no joke. I'll be interested in the money to see just how much of a commitment they have made.

Aaron and John are at Rock 4 Rescues at Sociable Cider Works, talking about whether anything can be learned from the Al Wild Card game, John's trip to New York, the rumors (and silence) about an extension for Paul Molitor and a couple of questions about the offseason. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

The 2017 Minnesota Twins season came to an end last night in The Bronx with yet another loss to the New York Yankees in the playoffs. Following the game, Aaron Gleeman went into the KFAN studio and took phone calls from Twins fans for well over an hour with Eric Nordquist. The Twins Geek called in from Yankees Stadium after the game to discuss the game and the atmosphere, as well. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.You can listen to the postgame show in its entirety here. http://hwcdn.libsyn....51a1ebc86a197fd Click here to view the article

On Monday in New York City, the focus was on the 0-4 New York Giants, with a small portion left for the surprising “success” of the 2-2 Jets. But as Tuesday drew closer, the focus turned to the Baby Bombers and their Wild Card matchup with the Twins. How do Gotham’s writers and fans see this game? You can start below...Wondering how the Yankees roster and lineup will look Tuesday night? Yankees manager Joe Girardi isn’t saying, but Mike Mazzeo of the New York Daily News predicts it will be similar to what faced Ervin Santana two weeks ago. That means that Aaron Hicks will not be starting in center field. He also lays out the way Girardi would like to use his bullpen. Mazzeo writes that while Aaron Judge’s remarkable season is nice, Yankees players are judged (and revered) by their fans by their performance in October. The New York Times’ Billy Witz agrees, noting the difference between Mr. October and Mr. May. The New York Daily News’ John Harper sees a Yankees team that could make a surprise run this October - IF they can win a dicey one-game Wild Card versus the Twins. Meanwhile, if you want to throw up in your mouth, you can read the Daily News’ Frank Kilinski’s review of the Twins-Yankees postseason battles. Enough about the Yankees. The New York Posts’ Kevin Kernan wants to talk about Byron Buxton and how he could be a Yankees nightmare. Nice try at a reverse jinx, Kevin. You’re not fooling us. Meanwhile, the Post’s Ken Davidoff thinks it is a Yankees player, specifically Gary Sanchez, who will find himself in the spotlight. The video-heavy Newsday reports that Girardi expects a win, based on how his team has done in September. Newsday’s Erik Boland finds that a lot of that confidence is rooted in Luis Severino, the Yankees starting pitcher. That confidence may be reflected in how much Yankees fans are paying for tickets for Tuesday night’s game. Newsday’s Neil Best reports the prices are far higherthan for the last Wild Card game the Yankees found themselves in. In short, New York sees it the same way as the rest of the country, including Minnesota. The Yankees are favored, but it’s one game and anything can happen in one game. Whichever team loses will need to take solace in a bright future, albeit a future that will be a little more distant than the coming month. Click here to view the article