John Bonnes

Finally, regarding Dozier, I'll publish a longer version of my blueprint for that section below. (It's also not a bad reminder that a writer, when revisiting a first draft, can ax quite a bit out of it and still get the point across. Just compare it to the first section.) Thanks again for the comments. Keep 'em coming. I'll check in later with more replies. ------------------------------------------------ 2. Shop Brian Dozier The verb is “shop” not “trade.” But he’s far from untouchable and unless he is willing to take a very team-friendly contract (without a no-trade clause) the Twins should definitely not extend him. Dozier is very good, but he’s not irreplaceable. He’s also 30 years old and his next contract will likely last until he’s 35 years old. He’s also going to be expensive, probably costing whoever signs him in free agency upwards of $15M/year. And for the Twins, there are other options on the roster. Moving him allows the Twins to move Jorge Polanco to second base, which could upgrade the Twins defensively at both shortstop and at second base, where Dozier has been slightly below average for the last couple of years. Ehire Adrianza could play shortstop for the year, with Nick Gordon waiting in the wings. I won’t deny it hurts the team a little for 2018, but the defensive upgrade helps, and I’m looking at impacts beyond 2018. Plus, he could command quite a bit in return. Despite conventional wisdom, Dozier is not worth less this year than he was last offseason. The return the Twins can demand is dependent on how many teams want him, not how many years those teams can squeeze out of him before free agency. Last year, they had one team interested, and therefore he wasn’t worth anything more than a questionable prospect. There is one more advantage this year: the Twins don’t solely need to be interested in soon-to-the-majors, high-upside pitching prospects. They already have those: Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero. That was one of the problems with last year’s trade market; the Twins were only interested in getting pitching in return. This year, they can trade him for prospects or high-upside relievers or international money or whatever. Again, I’m not saying “trade Dozier.” I’m saying don’t be afraid to trade Dozier. The time to shop a player is when you don’t need to shop them. Also, when they are about to get old. Also, when they’re about to get expensive. And finally, the best time is just before they become a free agent. Our attachment to Dozier might blind us from these objective truths, but now is the time to explore trading him.

First, on moving the dial: I'm not trying to move the dial for 2018. I'm hoping the continued development of the young players in the lineup plus that in the rotation (Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero) provides they take an incremental step forward this year. I'm trying to prepare them for a big leap in the future. I was hoping that leap would come from placing Tanaka atop the rotation, but if that is not to be, then I'll settle for keeping my powder dry. BTW, if you're interested in learning about the possibilities and challenges of signing a big name starting pitcher, I highly recommend this week's Gleeman and the Geek podcast.

Are you saying it isn't enough money? I'll lay it out: Provided Byron Buxton continues to progress, here is a rough estimate of what he (and Twins fans) can expect over the next five years: • 2018 as a 24-year-old, $550,000 • 2019 as a 25-year-old, $4 million • 2020 as a 26-year-old, $8 million • 2021 as a 27-year-old, $12 million • 2022 as a 28-year-old, signs for a gazillion dollars as a free agent with the Yankees. If they do nothing, the Twins hang on to him for four years and pay him $24.5 million. Alternately, the Twins could offer a guaranteed contract that looks like this: • 2018 as a 24-year-old, $1 million • 2019 as a 25-year-old, $3 million • 2020 as a 26-year-old, $6.5 million • 2021 as a 27-year-old, $10 million • 2022 as a 28-year-old, $12 million • 2023 as a 29-year-old, team option of $15 million with a $2 million buyout • 2024 as a 30-year-old, team option of $17 million • 2025 as a 31-year-old, signs for a gazillion dollars as a free agent with the Yankees. This way, the Twins get seven years of Buxton, the last two of which is under their prerogative. Buxton gets $32.5 million guaranteed, plus he still is a free agent while he’s only 31 years old.

I'll respond to the Dozier comment in another comment. Yes, signing those three (and I should've included Kepler, who will be a Super 2) requires two sides to agree. But it's common that happens. I'd say the chances for each of them is 75/25. It's just plan hard to turn down a $20-30M guaranteed contract. But mostly what I'm saying is that trying to do so should be a huge priority this offseason. #1, really.

I fought with the same "nimble" issue on mine, which is why I tried to make it about priorities. My top priority, my biggest splash, are the long-term deals. As far as what happens with Step 2, I think I kind of laid it out: 1. If I get back SP, that fits in well. 2. If I get back RP, then switch to chasing a veteran fill-in, like Sabathia, for Step 3. 3. If I get an offer back for a different fit, like a prospect I think can be a difference-maker in the future, then stay the course. Thanks for commenting. Keep 'em comimg.

GREAT comments, per usual from the TD community. I'll start quoting and replying as I have some time....

One of the best parts of getting the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is building your own Twins offseason blueprint. John Bonnes provides his below. You can do the same; just order the Handbook. The Twins were a good team in 2017, but they weren’t great. To truly contend, they need to make a couple of large leaps, and those leaps aren’t going to come from tightening up the bullpen, adding a middle-of-the-rotation starter or extending a veteran. They need to think bigger and they need to think beyond 2018. One of the best parts of getting the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is building your own Twins offseason blueprint. John Bonnes provides his below. You can do the same; just order the Handbook. The Twins were a good team in 2017, but they weren’t great. To truly contend, they need to make a couple of large leaps, and those leaps aren’t going to come from tightening up the bullpen, adding a middle-of-the-rotation starter or extending a veteran. They need to think bigger and they need to think beyond 2018. So with future greatness as the goal and a couple of unique opportunities available right now, here are the major moves I would like to see the Twins make this offseason. 1. Sign Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario to long-term deals with team options on the back-end. The first opportunity comes along only once in every player’s career – the offseason when a player has between two and three years of service time. For each one of these players, they’re guaranteed only around $550,000 next year, which isn’t “lifetime security” money. If the club waits even one more year, the player has millions guaranteed, and the Twins have far less leverage, costing them the chance to secure free agent years. For instance, the Twins can propose a $32.5 million, five-year deal for Buxton, with team options in years six and seven. The Twins get seven years of Buxton (instead of four), and Buxton gets paid, plus he is still a free agent while he’s only 31 years old. Similar deals could be made for Sano and Rosario. This is a rare chance to sign three offensive cornerstones and extend the Twins championship window several extra years. 2. Shop Brian Dozier I’m not saying “trade Dozier.” I’m saying the time to shop a player is when you don’t need to shop them. Also, when they are about to get old. Also, when they’re about to get expensive. And finally, the best time is just before they become a free agent. Our attachment to Dozier might blind us from these objective truths, but now is the time to explore trading him. Dozier is very good, but he’s not irreplaceable. He’s also 30 years. He’s going to be expensive, probably costing whoever signs him in free agency upwards of $15M/year. It would be a mistake to extend him, especially because there are other options. Jorge Polanco can move to second base, which upgrades the Twins defensively at both shortstop and at second base. Ehire Adrianza can play shortstop for the year, with Nick Gordon waiting in the wings. And unlike last year, the Twins don’t need to receive soon-to-the-majors, high-upside pitching prospects in a trade. This year, they can trade him for prospects or high-upside relievers or international money. The return could be significant. And if it isn’t, then hang on to him. 3. Sign Masahiro Tanaka to six-year, $136 million contract with a 3-year opt out. This was the original plan, but Tanaka decided on Friday NOT to opt out of his deal with the Yankees, which is a damn shame. So I’ll leave the original plan here and replace #3 with #3B below, since I now have a lot of money to spend…. Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are at the top of the free agency class and are both 31 years old. However, there is another ace-caliber pitcher who is only 28: Mashiro Tanaka, who appears likely to opt-out of a guaranteed 3-year deal with the Yankees for $67M. Tanaka has had health issues and may not be considered an “ace” yet, though his career ERA at this point last year was 3.12. His 4.74 ERA in 2018 might depress some interest in him, but he still struck out 9.8 batters per nine and walked only 2.1. His problem has been that he’s given up too many home runs. Well, yeah. He pitches at Yankee Stadium. Try Target Field on for size, Masahiro. If you dream of a Twins postseason team with an ace (in his prime) atop the rotation, this is your best chance of that for the next five years. Signing Tanaka raises payroll to $120 million and I didn’t do anything with the bullpen. Those incremental improvements will need to wait. Instead, I’m focusing on the opportunities that are here today. We can work out the smaller stuff next year. #3B. Sign relievers Juan Nicasio($21M/3 years) and Mike Minor($28M/4 years) Without Tanaka available, I don’t see a golden opportunity among the free agent pitchers, so instead I focus on either trying to fill a spot in the bullpen by signing CC Sabathia or stabilizing the bullpen. I like Sabathia because I liked the veteran presence that Bartolo Colon brought and Sabathia seems like he could play a similar role. But I chose the idea of bolstering the bullpen with a 1-2 punch from the left (Minor) and right (Nicasio). That move give manager Paul Molitor a core he can trust and allows the rest of the bullpen to settle in with internal arms that are developing. Maybe Hildenberger continues his breakout season. Maybe some guys get healthy, like Tyler Jay or JT Chargois. Maybe the new pitching coach helps Ryan Pressly or Tyler Duffey take their next steps. Minor and Nicasio provide a little buffer while the rest gets sorted out. View full article

I ask this question of Aaron in the latest Gleeman and the Geek podcast, but I'll ask it of our community, too. It seems like there is a lot of optimism that the Twins will have an aggressive offseason in free agency and perhaps sign a top starting pitcher (say Lance Lynn or better) or a closer-caliber arm for the bullpen. Or that payroll will increase significantly. I'm wondering - is there any evidence to support this? For instance, have I missed some quotes from the front office where they hinted this would be the case? If not (and you're one of the optimistic ones), where does this optimism come from?

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' offseason needs, limited free agent starting pitching options, Miguel Sano's surgery to insert a titanium rod into his leg, Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook, losing Daniel Palka and Randy Rosario on waivers, Rick Anderson joining Ron Gardenhire in Detroit, Duck Duck Gray Duck, Francisco Liriano winning a World Series, and reviewing the preseason AL Central over/under picks. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. [media]http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Ep_342.mp3?dest-id=74590[/media] View full article

Happy Offseason! At Twins Daily, we let Honus Wagner stare out the window and wait for spring. We dig in, with Twins talk every crazy day and we kick it off with our Offseason Handbook. It’s yours to download for whatever price you think is fair and has everything you’ll need to plan out your own offseason plan for your favorite baseball team. It includes: Happy Offseason! At Twins Daily, we let Honus Wagner stare out the window and wait for spring. We dig in, with Twins talk every crazy day and we kick it off with our Offseason Handbook. It’s yours to download for whatever price you think is fair and has everything you’ll need to plan out your own offseason plan for your favorite baseball team. It includes: An analysis of the Twins payroll and how much they are likely to spend on free agents. A summary of free agent starting pitchers, relievers and right-handed hitters that would be prime targets for the Twins. A complete review of the organization’s depth, position-by-position, from the majors down to the rookie leagues. A summary of the arbitration decisions the Twins must make and their likely choices. Analysis of the top trade targets on the Twins. Essays by Twins Daily writers on special topics looking back at the season and at the upcoming offseason. A sample blueprint on a path the Twins could take in building for 2018 and beyond. We encourage you to check it out, make your own blueprint, and then follow along on Twins Daily as we track the Twins, their rumors, their news and the rest of the American League. C'mon - you’ve got some time this afternoon, so order it now and you’ll be able to download it immediately. Thank you for checking it out and for stopping by Twins Daily for your Twins fix. View full article

It’s almost here… the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook will be sent out at the last out of the World Series, but those folks who have preordered received Nick Nelson’s essay examining the trade market for Jorge Polanco. You can too - just pre-order it. As soon as you do (at whatever price you think is fair) you’ll be able to download Nick’s essay AND you’ll get the Handbook the moment it is released. It’s almost here… the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook will be sent out at the last out of the World Series, but those folks who have preordered received Nick Nelson’s essay examining the trade market for Jorge Polanco. You can too - just pre-order it. As soon as you do (at whatever price you think is fair) you’ll be able to download Nick’s essay AND you’ll get the Handbook the moment it is released. If you even visit this site occasionally, you're going to love the Offseason Handbook. It lays out the whole offseason as if you were the Twins General Manager: the free agents, the trade options, the payroll limitations, and a complete organizational depth chart featuring all your minor league players. At the end, we share Nick Nelson's blueprint for what he would do if he was the GM, and this week other Twins Daily writers will share theirs. We invite you to share yours too, in the Forums. It makes a long cold offseason a whole lot more fun and we want everyone to have a chance to play with it, so you choose how much to pay. Again, pre-order it now, so you can get Nick's essay early! View full article

Aaron and John discuss new Twins pitching coach Garvin Alston, Glen Perkins career, John's attempt to run a half-marathon with the help of RxBars and their preseason picks in the AL East. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Episode_341.mp3 Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports View full article

Tired or waiting for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook? If you pre-ordered it, you got a sneak peek at it on Saturday night, when we sent out Parker's essay detailing how Byron Buxton's swing was rebuilt on the fly this season. And you can still get it! Just pre-order it. You'll not only immediately be able to download Parker's essay but you'll also get: Tired or waiting for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook? If you pre-ordered it, you got a sneak peek at it on Saturday night, when we sent out Parker's essay detailing how Byron Buxton's swing was rebuilt on the fly this season. And you can still get it! Just pre-order it. You'll not only immediately be able to download Parker's essay but you'll also get: 1. Nick Nelson's essay on a prime trade target on the Twins and 2. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook as soon as the offseason starts, when the last out of the World Series is recorded. If you even visit this site occasionally, you're going to love the Offseason Handbook. It lays out the whole offseason as if you were the Twins General Manager: the free agents, the trade options, the payroll limitations, and a complete organizational depth chart featuring all your minor league players. At the end, we share Nick Nelson's blueprint for what he would do if he was the GM, and this week other Twins Daily writers will share theirs. We invite you to share yours too, in the Forums. It makes a long cold offseason a whole lot more fun and we want everyone to have a chance to play with it, so you choose how much to pay. Again, pre-order it now, so you can get Parker's and Nick's essays early! View full article

Aaron and John talk about Ron Gardenhire's return to the AL Central with the Tigers, the Twins' pitching coach search, their Friday night activities, Baseball America editor-in-chief John Manuel joining the Twins' scouting department, betting on Nick Blackburn, plugging books and handbooks, Delmon Young's clean slate in Australia, and the results of the preseason AL West over/under picks. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Episode_340The_Return_of_Gardy.mp3?dest-id=74590 If you would like to check out the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook which we talk about on this podcast, click on this: View full article

Aaron and John react to the Twins manager Paul Molitor's contract extension, preview how much the Twins will have to spend this offseason, debate Brian Dozier's future with the Twins, and discuss whether or not Miguel Sano should play third base next year. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Episode_339_Molitor_Extension_and_Twins_Payroll.mp3?dest-id=74590 Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports View full article

Opportunity almost always chooses to knock when you’re stuck on the phone talking to tech support. She does not accommodate your schedule. You play on hers, or you don’t play. This offseason, the Twins will face that reality, because they have a small window to accomplish something they’ve been waiting to do for years. This offseason is the single best – and maybe only – chance to lock up three of the Twins most important players to long-term deals that keep them in Minnesota beyond their initial free agent years. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are all in the sweet spot to negotiate a long-term deal. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Opportunity almost always chooses to knock when you’re stuck on the phone talking to tech support. She does not accommodate your schedule. You play on hers, or you don’t play. This offseason, the Twins will face that reality, because they have a small window to accomplish something they’ve been waiting to do for years. This offseason is the single best – and maybe only – chance to lock up three of the Twins most important players to long-term deals that keep them in Minnesota beyond their initial free agent years. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are all in the sweet spot to negotiate a long-term deal. I understand this is not terribly convenient, which brings us back to Opportunity. You may feel like it’s too early. You may not trust Sano’s health. You may not trust Rosario’s plate discipline. You may not trust Buxton’s batting average. You may want to focus on a lot of other issues, like how to fix the pitching staff or who is going to fill the spots on the coaching staff. I mean, do we really need to decide this right now? Opportunity recognizes this is hard. She also does not care. She must leave after this offseason and here is why. All three of these players have over two years and under three years of major league service time. Which means this is the last year they’ll be making between $550,000 and $600,000. That’s a lot of money, but it isn’t “lifetime security” money. So if something happens – a concussion, a blown-up knee or suddenly they just can’t hit – they are left to their own devices for the rest of their careers. If the Twins want to wait until next year, the players and their agents might still be willing to listen, but at this time next year they’ll each be in line for a guaranteed salary of $3M-$5M. That is at least close to “lifetime security” money. And they get it whether they negotiate a long-term deal or not. So if you want to lock them up – either because you want to save money or because you want to guarantee they stick around for some free agent years – now is the best time. At a high level, that means making a sizable commitment. Each deal will likely require five guaranteed years and at least $28M, something like $1M/$3M/$5.5M/$8M/$10.5M. That’s the starting point. In this year’s TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook (it’s coming SOON), we’ll give you a chance to craft a more precise and fair offer for each of them, and also give you a handful of comparable recent deals to help you out. In the meantime, here are some questions to ask yourself and debate in the comments below, provided you have registered: Are you comfortable signing each player to a long-term deal? Which players are your priority if you can only sign one or two? How many years of team options do you want after the guaranteed money? It might be easier to tack three years onto the end for Buxton (who would still only be 31 years old when he finishes the deal) than Rosario (who would be 33 years old, and might want to hit the free agency a little sooner). Or are you uncomfortable with the whole idea? If so, Opportunity understands, but will you excuse her? She has other stops to make. Best of luck…. View full article