John Bonnes

The Twins made their final bullpen roster moves today, reassigning Nick Tepesch and Alex Wimmers to minor league camp. While the official roster is not set, those moves clarify the likely bullpen. It is not an impressive group. Brandon Kintzler will return as a closer. The 32-year-old took over the closer job for the Twins last year when Glen Perkins was injured and saved 17 games. He also struck out 5.8 guys per nine innings pitched, which puts him well below the average strikeout rate of a major league pitcher (which is 8.1 K/9), let alone a major league closer.Free agent signee Matt Belisle will be one of the right-handed setup men. He is 36 years old and this is his fourth team in the last four years. His strikeout rate last year was 6.8 K/9. He and Kintzler have been effective, but It is safe to posit that on many teams, they would be trusted to be seventh inning setup men, at best. Indeed, that was their role on their teams the year before they joined the Twins. The other right-handed setup men have a little more upside, but fewer results. Ryan Pressly is 28 years old and put up an average strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) and showed added velocity during spring training. Michael Tonkin is even younger (27 years old) and had an even higher strikeout rate (10.0 K/9), but was homer-prone last year (13 HR in 71.1 IP) and again in spring training (3 HR in 12.1 IP). He had a poor spring training and it is likely that being out of options (which means the Twins could lose him if he didn’t make the roster) is why he made the roster. The left-handed relievers have a similar "veteran/youngster" profile as the right-handers. The veteran is Craig Breslow, a 36-year-old who the Twins signed on a minor-league deal this offseason. The “youngster” is 26-year-old Taylor Rogers who is truly tough on lefties (547 OPS against in 2016) but is unlikely to expand that role due to his troubles against right-handed hitters (811 OPS against in 2016). Finally, the swingman will be 25-year-old Justin Haley, who is also likely on the roster due to his status as a Rule 5 pick. If he did not make the roster, the Twins would need to return him to the Red Sox. It’s not difficult to justify each of these players having a spot in a major league bullpen. And with the exception of the decision to demote JT Chargois, it’s probably the best group that could come north with the team. But this is a group of back-of-the-bullpen talents, some of which are going to be saddled with high-leverage bullpen roles. Twins manager Paul Molitor seems to understand this. “I think we’re going to have to do some mixing and matching towards the end,” said Molitor last week, “with Kintzler on the backside, so, we’ll see how it goes.” There is a scenario where this bullpen is successful. “My hope is that between the experience and the talent - some still developing - that it’s going to be better,” said Molitor. But there are a lot of scenarios where the opposite is true and the lack of tools that are at Molitor’s discretion is an organizational problem. The one thing a bad team should be able to do is find good relief arms; they have all the advantages in that area. They have the first pick in waivers. They have innings to invest. They have opportunities for under-the-radar free agents. They have higher draft picks. They can trade veterans for younger, still developing arms. The advantages go on and on. That the Twins have utterly failed in this area after six years of futility is the most damning indictment of the Terry Ryan front office. But just so we’re clear, the new leadership has not garnered immediate results either. The biggest change so far is adding the journeyman reliever Belisle. There were no obvious diamonds in the rough discovered in spring training this year that provide hope that 2017 will be any better than the previous six years. We'll see how it goes. The tension that Twins fans will feel at the end of ballgames is, for now, the same as the tension fans of the other 29 teams feel as their bullpen tries to nail down a win. But the feeling today - of skepticism after six years of cringing - is uniquely their own. Click here to view the article

The big purge has been delayed for at least one more day, leading to a day of anticipation or anxiety or purgatory or … living in the present, maybe? After all, it sounds like the decisions have been made. Tomorrow isn’t getting here any faster. There is a baseball game in the sunshine. Let’s travel the zen path and soak in what is in front of us today.Speaking Of Zen, Stay Calm We saw at least one possible version of the Twins lineup versus right-handed pitching, and as soon as I saw it, I knew what would freak people out: 1 - Dozier 2 - Kepler 3 - Buxton 4 - Mauer 5 - Sano 6 - Rosario 7 - Park 8 - Polanco 9 - Murphy If this ends up being the lineup the first week of the regular season (and it probably will), I can describe fans reactions in six words: OHMYGOD JOE MAUER IS BATTING CLEANUP. There is going to be a lot of freaking out. I think the thought process is as follows. First, this allows Molitor to bat two of his guys where he wants them: Dozier leads off and Buxton bats third. Also, batting Mauer after Buxton does the following: Gives Buxton a little protection.Puts a high OBP guy in front of SanoDivides to strikeout prone right-handers with a left-hander.And finally, it’s not like Buxton needs an extra-base hit to move around the bases.Postgame, regarding his lineup versus right-handers, Molitor said straight up “This is definitely an options I would consider in terms of the top five.” So we know which way he’s leaning right now. But I’ll predict it doesn’t last long, for the same reason we talked about on Monday: I can’t imagine Mauer feels comfortable with the expectations of being a cleanup hitter. In the meantime, enjoy this hanging curveball for snark. Also, while I do like the idea of someone breaking up Buxton and Sano, I’m also hesitant saddling Buxton with the expectations that come with hitting third. It may be that this is a work in progress all season. Again, stay tuned. Lord He’s Fun To Watch In the bottom of the first, Buxton hit a line drive to left field, towards the line. It was not in danger of getting past the outfielder, who raced over, fielded it cleanly and gunned it into the infield. And Buxton was STANDING on second base. There are very fast players who could hustle right out of the box and slide into second base beating that throw. But Buxton made it look routine. When he rounded first there was a gasp of anticipation from the crowd for his daring ploy. And then ... the tension just faded away. There was never really any question. It was so smooth as to be mundane. I’m sure there were casual fans who didn’t think there was anything unusual about the play. Meanwhile, in the press box, baseball writers are laughing and looking around at each other with that “Did you SEE that?” look on their face. It was the first topic that came up when talking to Molitor. "Don't watch the ball," Molitor advised us after a Buxton hit. He doesn't need to worry. Park vs Heat The Twins faced Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer today, who throws 97 miles per hour. I was most intrigued to see how ByungHo Park would fare against that kind of speed. I wouldn’t say he looked overmatched, but he did strike out swinging. He made up for it two at-bats later, albeit against a cutter from Austin Pruitt. It was the lone run of the game, which the Twins won. The Last Piece? Robbie Grossman played in a minor league game today and it sounds like everything went well. He should play versus Boston tomorrow. That might well be the last piece of the puzzle for the roster. If something changes and he isn’t healthy, the Twins could bring north JB Shuck as a backup outfielder, though with Danny Santana on the roster, that’s not a sure thing. With Ehire Adrianza battling an oblique strain (and Tommy Fields demoted today), I don’t see an infielder that would replace him. Which leaves the possibility of carrying 13 pitchers north. That sounds crazy, but it would allow the coaching staff and the front office to both get what they want. Alex Wimmers could make the team and still keep Michael Tonkin and Justin Haley in the organization. At the very least, it would allow the Twins to delay exposing Tonkin to waivers. I asked a scout with a front office background about whether that is really beneficial or not. Is a player even more likely to be claimed when there isn’t as much traffic on the waiver wire in a week or two? In general, he felt like it was easier to get a player through waivers then because of teams' mindset. The question becomes: “Is he that much better than the guy we got?” If there isn’t a clear cut difference, they’ll just stand pat. 40-Man Moves One challenge about carrying 13 pitchers is it would require another move to make room for Alex Wimmers on the 40-man roster. I don't think that's likely, so let’s wrap up this story with the candidates for the roster that are not on the 40-man and the probable moves: If ByungHo Park wins the DH job, the Twins can put left-handed reliever Glen Perkins on the 60-day DLIf Chris Gimenez wins the backup catcher job, they’ll need to drop someone. I expect that is left-handed reliever Buddy Boshers.If Alex Wimmers wins the bullpen job, it likely means Michael Tonkin does not. So he would need to be exposed to waivers because he’s out of options. That would open a spot.If Nick Tepesch wins the swingman role, it likely means Justin Haley does not. So as a Rule 5 pick, he would need to be offered back to his old team. That would open a spot.There will be more cuts tomorrow, but it sounds like final cuts might wait as long as Thursday. Still, Molitor said we’ll have some (maybe not all) clarification on final roles tomorrow. It was pointed out to me that the truck with players’ stuff left on Monday morning, when there were still around 40 guys left on the roster. So there are about 15 guys whose stuff is going to need to be shipped back. Click here to view the article

Pop quiz, hot shot: When the rubber meets the road, what makes everything move forward? Answer: Friction. For a team that was supposedly going through an overhaul, the Twins offseason has been one giant Kumbaya singing chorus. The new organizational leaders, CBO Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine, have emphasized relationships, including the one with incumbent manager Paul Molitor. But the season is starting up, and that is when relationships get tested. It usually starts with roster cuts.All sides say that Molitor and the new front office are getting along very well. “It’s been very comfortable,’ says Molitor. His boss agrees. “[Molitor] and I have had really candid conversations about the roster all the way through spring training,” said Falvey this weekend. “I don’t think it will change. It gets harder as you get to 25, but I think we’ll be in a good place coming out of it.” The truth is that it gets exponentially harder once you get to 25, because there are players who, if they don’t make the roster, are likely lost to the organization. If there is going to be a disagreement between the front office and the coaching staff, it’s going to happen this week with a few of the last roster spots. The conflict is that the coach and front office have different priorities. Everyone understands that. “Paul’s job is to focus exclusively on what’s happening now and putting the best team out on the field,” said Falvey. “My job is to think a little more broadly about the long term path of the organization.“ Those diverging responsibilities differ most obviously in the last two spots in the bullpen. For the last right-handed reliever, Alex Wimmers looks like the coaching staff’s preferred option over Michael Tonkin. Wimmers has been seeing time earlier and earlier and getting his manager’s praise. See how many compliments you can count in this next paragraph. “He’s had a really good camp,” said Molitor after Wimmers last outing. “He did a nice job last year. I mean, there was a few walks, but it’s not like he misfires all the time. He throws all four pitches out of the bullpen, which make him unique. He doesn’t back down from people; I like that he has good presence. You don’t see a change in body language when a guy gets a hit or a walk or whatever. He just seems to be very steady out there. He’s had a lot of nice innings down here. We’ve seen all his pitches. The changeup has been a really good pitch for him this spring.” Tonkin, meanwhile, has show the same thing this year that he’s shown the last couple of years. He has a tantalizing mid 90s fastball. It strikes people out, including 10 in the 11 innings he has pitched this spring. He also gives up home runs, including three this spring. Plus, this year he’s added to the debit side of the ledger; he’s walked six guys in those 11 innings. However, Michael Tonkin is out of options, meaning that if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster, he would need to be offered free-of-charge to all 29 other teams. If anyone can find a place for him on their 25-man roster, they get him. And you can bet that the front office, confronted with an organization that has struggled to find pitching for the last six years, would like to keep that arm around and see if they could have a chance to tap his potential. That’s harder to do when he’s playing for the Pirates. The same question applies to the last spot in the bullpen, or the “swingman” who is often used to throw several innings when a starter is knocked out of a game early. Nick Tepesch has been getting starts in front of Justin Haley for the last couple games. For that matter, the Twins have had Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios (already demoted) and Adalberto Mejia competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, and any of them would make a good cleanup option, too. But Justin Haley is a Rule 5 pick, and if the Twins don’t keep him on the 25-man roster (or disabled list) for the entirety of the 2017 season, he’ll need to be offered back to the Red Sox. Haley hasn’t pitched particularly well in camp, as his 6.08 ERA suggests. But in an organization starved for pitching, adding a 25-year-old who has struck out almost a guy per inning in spring training is a good idea. Especially if his role is mostly to throw strikes in games that are already lost. There are other possible challenges, though they appear less significant. If ByungHo Park makes the roster as the starting designated hitter and Chris Gimenez makes the roster as the backup catcher, both must be added to the 40-man roster. One of those spots seems straight-forward: Glen Perkins appears to be a likely candidate for the 60 day DL, which opens a spot. But the other means dropping someone. That doesn’t appear to be a huge issue. “I think we’re fine,” said Molitor regarding finding room on the 40-man. There surely have been tests outside the public’s view between the front office and their manager this offseason, but cementing a 25-man roster raises the ante. For his part, Falvey doesn’t anticipate a lot of drama. “I’ve only been around groups that make [these decisions] together. And I’d like to do that with Paul and with Thad and with our group,” he said. “Ultimately, I’m responsible for our baseball operations, so that [decisionmaker] will be me, but I’m confident we’ll all get to a place where we feel good about the outcome with the 25-man [roster] at the end.” They may all feel good. But the way forward likely involves a little friction. Click here to view the article

And I just realized I've been saying "Castro" and thinking Gimenez. He was the catcher yesterday.

On the one hand, it's hard to find an ideal lineup with this group. On the other hand, I look at almost all of the lineups above and find myself nodding and saying "Yeah, I can see that."

No, nothing to read into this. I specifically asked if he was trying to work on his offspeed pitches in this start because I saw how many he threw when facing Red Sox a second time. He replied "No" and that he did it just because that was how Castro was calling the game. TBH, I don't know who he has worked with more. FWIW, I think we'll get clarification on the 5th starter today. And I wouldn't be shocked if we hear about the catchers at that point, too, though, maybe not.

I'll take a stab, by the way. Vs. Right-handers Dozier Polanco Mauer Sano Kepler Park Buxton Rosario Castro I redid this three times. I started with Buxton batting 3rd, because I think there is a real good chance that happens. But I don't think I want that kid feeling that responsibility. So I moved Mauer from 5 to 3. But I didn't want Buxton trapped between Sano and Park either. So I moved Kepler from 7 to 5. This is hard. Let's see if LHers are any easier. (I bet not.) Vs Left-hander Dozier Grossman Buxton Sano Mauer Park Kepler/Rosario Polanco Gimenez Yeah, I'm not crazy about that either. But maybe it gets Buxton a chance to try hitting 3rd on the occasional day to gear him up for hitting that way versus right-handers, too.

I’ve got good news for the batting order obsessed: it’s finally your time. With more regulars playing more games this week, it’s time to start paying attention to the Twins lineup. Molitor is clearly trying to find the right mix, and Friday he hinted that the batting order could look quite a bit different against right-handed and left-handed pitching. The only thing he has committed to so far is that Byron Buxton will not hit leadoff. Sabremetric types likely concur, given Buxton’s .274 OBP in the majors so far. But I get the sense that Moltor’s decision is more about catering to Buxton’s mindset. Buxton has been at his best when he is aggressive, and the traditional leadoff role expects patience.In a recent MNSPN podcast, Roy Smalley talked a little about a time in his career when he batted cleanup. He was a team player, so he was happy to do what the team wanted, but he was never comfortable there, and he admitted it was partly because he was kind of embarrassed to be batting there. He knew what a cleanup hitter was, and he was no cleanup hitter. It feels like we saw something similar last year when on-base machine Joe Mauer batted leadoff and promptly went right into the tank. It’s easy to say “Don’t change your approach” but these guys have a lifetime of expectations baked into their brains. Finding someone’s comfort zone is worth something. (By the way, I just looked up Smalley’s career OPS as a cleanup hitter. It was .824, 84 points higher than his career OPS. So, as usual, I have no point.) Where would Buxton hit instead? Well, today Buxton hit third in the lineup - and that’s the third time in the last four games that he has batted there. Molitor is clearly playing with the idea. Stay tuned. One of the other places that Buxton has batted a couple of times lately is second, but today it was Jorge Polanco in that spot versus southpaw Chris Sale. Polanco is a switch-hitter, and he seems to be a true switch hitter, without a really dominant side. I wondered if he might be a fit batting second from one side or the other. It turns out, for the last two years, he has hit for a higher average and higher OPS right-handed. However, he seems to have a better eye at the plate right-handed. For instance, last year hitting right-handed he had 27 strikeouts and 14 walks (about a 2:1 ratio). Left-handed, it was much worse: 19/3. But his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS were all higher hitting left-handed. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ True to form, he got a hit versus the left-hander Sale, and a walk against the right-handed Joe Kelly. But don’t get too accustomed to seeing Polanco there or at least not against southpaws. After the game, Molitor suggested this lineup was a little different than might be the case versus left-handed pitching in the regular season. In particular, he mentioned Robbie Grossman, who with his career .347 OBP, would be a pretty good fit in that second spot. With both Kepler and Rosario hitting left-handed, one could imagine a split platoon, where Grossman replaces one or the other. And versus right-handers? We saw Kepler there the other night. Before that, over the last two weeks, the other regulars that have played there are Polanco (two weeks ago vs a right-hander), Buxton and Brian Dozier. Dozier would be a great fit there if Buxton bats third, but…. The smart money is riding on Brian Dozier to hit leadoff. He clearly feels most comfortable there, to the point where we hear about him lobbying for the spot. Indeed, he hit really well there last year, with a .917 OPS. He may just feel comfortable there. For those of you howling, I agree; putting their 40+ home run guy at leadoff makes no logical sense. On the other hand, there are worse hells than having one of your best hitters get most of your team’s at-bats. Of course, the other player who would be great hitting second is Joe Mauer. He hasn’t played as often with Dozier and Buxton, so it’s not totally clear where Molitor sees him fitting. The last four times he has played with them, he led off twice and hit third and fifth (versus a left-hander) today. Miguel Sano has pretty regularly hit out of the cleanup spot this spring, but in two game he played last week, Molitor tried batting him fifth. And with ByungHo Park likely making the roster, the Twins need to figure out how they want to space their dual slugging right-handed hitters. Versus right-handers, one could break them up with Rosario or Kepler, both of whom have been anemic against left-handed pitching but effective against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, neither has done a lot in camp this spring. Or, I suppose one could look at left-handed hitting catcher Jason Castro, who has veteranness (veterenacity? veterantment?) on his side. Plus his career OPS against right-handers virtually matches that of Rosario. Monday we’ll likely see a number of backups in the lineup, but Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday expect the team to be ramping up for the regular season. We’ll see if Molitor settles on the right mix. You’re welcome to take your shot below. Click here to view the article

The Twins lost to the cross-city foes the Red Sox today. The damage was done late, which is both good news and bad news, depending on whether you are worried about the starting pitching or the bullpen. Optimistic Outing Kyle Gibson started against a Boston regular season lineup and kept them off-balance and in check for six innings, throwing only 78 pitches. By my count, 56 (72%) of them were strikes, so it’s not surprising that he also had no walks amid his four strikeouts. The first time through the lineup he relied primarily on his fastball, and the second there were a lot more offspeed pitches, but that wasn’t a conscious effort; Gibson said afterwards it was just how catcher Chris Gimenez called the game.Except for a couple of batters, he made things looked effortless. Whether that’s a good sign or not for the regular season remains to be seen. Gibson cautioned that he never knows what the other team is working on, and it might be that they’re working on something that gives Gibson an advantage. Towards that end, I’ve been very surprised by how patient teams have been against the Twins pitching this year. Today, the first time through the order, only two of the Red Sox batters swung at the first pitch, and five of them just watched strike one. It was similar the second time through the lineup; at least four guys watched themselves go down 0-1 in the count. It’s a lot easier to have an efficient outing when that’s the case. But for what it’s worth, Gibson is clearly in a positive mindset. So is his manager. “Bottle it,” exclaimed Twins manager Paul Molitor when asked for his reaction. Back To Your Regularly Schedule Pessimism Less exciting was Ryan Pressly’s outing. I counted (roughy) 24 pitches and 10 strikes. He started by walking the first two batters. He bounced back a bit for a strikeout and then outlasted left-handed hitting Pablo Sandoval when Panda chased a 92 mph 3-2 fastball outside the zone. But that gift was erased when his next pitch to catcher Christian Vazquez ended up in the left field bleachers. So in one inning he walked two, gave up three runs and never really found the strike zone. I’m 99% sure he’s safe to make the bullpen, so I don’t think it matters, unless you’re hoping for a rebound this year from the bullpen. It was the exactly the opposite of Gibson’s outing, and exactly the opposite outing one wants to have just before the regular season. I expect we’ll see him again midweek. Let’s Leave On Some High Notes Molitor talked a little about how impressed he has been with Alex Wimmers, who had a clean inning in relief, this spring. He likes that he has four pitches and he likes that he has a presence about him when things go wrong. I also heard from a baseball guy that he views Wimmers' changeup as a “separator,” a pitch that raises him above the others who might be relievers. I mention this all since I wasn’t very excited with the demotion of JT Chargois and the possible (maybe probable) addition of Wimmers to the 25-man. On that note, it looks like Michael Tonkin will have a chance to pitch in relief tomorrow night versus the Pirates. He needs a good outing. Kennys Vargas made some progress today: he put on a shoe. He was also supposed to run, but he is fighting the flu, and it sounds like a couple of guys from the WBC are also. Next up for Kennys: locusts followed by pestilence, probably. I’ve been wondering about the status of Robbie Grossman, who had a groin strain and has been out a few days. He took batting practice today and ran, although he didn’t run the bases. Molitor is hoping he can play again on Wednesday, so keep an eye on that lineup. If Grossman regresses, it’s not at all clear what the Twins would do. He wouldn’t necessarily be replaced by an outfielder, as Danny Santana and (cringe) Eduardo Escobar could play there if necessary. But the Twins likely won’t be adding the slick-fielding infielder Ehire Adrianza; he has an oblique strain. If he isn’t added to the 25-man and isn’t placed on the DL, he would need to be exposed to waivers. He’s out of options. And finally, there are a few candidates with a real chance to make the team who are not on the 40-man roster. ByungHo Park and Chris Gimenez would both need to be added. Molitor said he thinks they know what they would do. Presumably, one spot could be opened up rather easily, as Glen Perkins could be put on the DL. Click here to view the article

The Twins lost to the Orioles last night 6-3, but most of the day’s drama came earlier. There was a 5th starter battle on the minor league fields and we learned that other 5th starter candidate, Jose Berrios, was optioned to the minors. We also got some important injury news and a glimpse of another top pitching prospect. Let’s cover the highlights:Vargas “Hobbled” In Friday night’s game, recently returned designated hitter candidate Kennys Vargas fouled a pitch off his foot or shin. He stayed in the game, but when he hit a fly ball to the outfield, he pulled up limping halfway to first base and left the game. After the game, we were told that x-rays had turned up nothing and that he was day-to-day. Today the Twins were not as optimistic. Manager Paul Molitor described Vargas as “hobbled” and said the Twins might potentially have another look at the injury. Vargas isn’t in a cast, or even an air cast, but he was on crutches, said Molitor. After playing sparingly in the WBC competition, Vargas was already going to need to accumulate at-bats to secure the designated hitter role for which he was the leading candidate entering camp. With only five Grapefruit League games remaining after tonight’s tilt, his prospects look grim. Especially given that ByungHo Park has had such a strong camp. The Fifth Starter Competition Molitor addressed the media prior to the game about Berrios’ demotion and the starts by Adalberto Mejia and Tyler Duffey at the minor league complex this morning. While it was possible that Berrios might have been able to get his pitch count high enough in time for his first start, the Twins were worried about rushing that process. “I was of the opinion, and I think everyone was, that the lack of work and consistency of work ... to try and rush the buildup here in the last ten days to try and get him ready to try and be in that spot didn’t make a lot of sense to me,” said Molitor. It should be noted that according to Twins pitcher and Puerto Rico WBC teammate Hector Santiago, Berrios did work while playing with the Puerto Rican WBC team to try to build up his pitch count, including throwing a 55-pitch live batting practice session. “But I know it’s tough for [the Twins] on their side. They want to make sure he’s healthy and they don’t want to force him out there, run him out there and have something happen,” said Santiago, while lamenting the difficult decision. Meanwhile, Molitor said that he thought both Duffey and Mejia had good but not outstanding mornings. “It wasn’t a seperator day for me,” said Molitor. “We just kind of need to look at the whole thing and see how it fits.” It sounds like this was the last chance for both to make their case. Molitor said he’ll talk with pitching coaches Neil Allen and Eddie Guardado and they’ll make their decision before their next bullpen, which would be Monday. Santiago’s Return Hector Santiago made his first start since returning from the WBC and threw 77 pitches over four innings. If his next start is in five days, it would be Thursday, the last Grapefruit League game and he would be up to a pitch count of 90. It sounds like he’ll line up to pitch the second game of the season at Target Field on April 5th. Others at Twins Daily have analyzed Santiago, but this was my first time charting pitches for the left-hander, and he’s an interesting case. Pitch F/X says he throws a fastball over 60% of the time, and then a changeup 20% of the time and a mix of other stuff. But that’s not what he says, or at least not what he threw tonight. He didn’t mention a changeup today at all. He says he threw a lot of fastballs away but concentrated on three offspeed offerings: a slider (which would usually be used against lefties), a curveball (which he usually uses primarily against right-handers, and a screwball (which officially puts me out of my depth). He concentrated on the offspeed pitches tonight because he says he threw them so rarely in the WBC. According to Santiago, in his last outing he threw 68 pitches, and only four were not fastballs. That was his focus and probably explains why he only had 49 strikes in the 77 pitches he threw. His line was solid enough: three strikeouts in four innings pitched with a walk and four hits. Unfortunately, two of those hits went over the wall, but they were solo shots. Kohl Stewart Appearance Twins pitching prospect (and #4 overall draft choice from 2013 draft) Kohl Stewart was called over from the minor league complex and brought on the road game to make an appearance in relief. The good news is that he can say he struck out JJ Hardy and Hyun Soo Kim. He can also say he gave up a home run to Chris Davis, which is probably an even better story to tell his grandkids. It wasn’t a great outing; he had a lot of trouble throwing strikes, he walked a few guys and he gave up four runs in his two innings. And I hope he doesn’t care one bit. Tomorrow is a home game and it would not be surprising if there were some roster moves. Stay tuned…. Click here to view the article

The place to be this morning for Twins baseball nerds was Boston’s minor league fields to see Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia, both battling for a shot at the fifth starters role, pitched in AA and AAA games respectively. This afternoon, we learned that the matchup meant even more than we thought as leading fifth starter candidate, Jose Berrios, was optioned to the minors.The baseball nerds swarmed this morning; just ask Twins CBO Derek Falvey, Manager Paul Molitor, Director of Baseball Research Jack Goin, scouts, players, most of the Twins Cities baseball media nerds and several Twins Daily supporters. They were almost all huddled around picnic tables behind the backstop with notebooks and radar guns. Then, this afternoon, we found out that Jose Berrios, who had spent most of his time this March with the Puerto Rico WBC baseball team, was optioned to the minors. He just wasn’t going to be able to get the pitch counts in that he needed to be ready for the regular season. Jumping between minor league games that were all of 20 yards from each other was fun, and I'll give more details, but let’s jump to the results. Duffey had a helluva game versus those AA hitters. He went 6 innings on (by my count) 82 pitches, struck out ten, walked one, gave up four hits and one unearned run. (I’m counting a long fly ball that hit the left fielder's glove an E7. Others saw it as a wind-aided double. That would be fifth hit and an earned run.) I didn’t see much of Adalberto Mejia, and I don’t have final numbers. I do know that he had a rough second inning that was described as “flukey.” He gave up four runs in that inning, including a home run that was described as “wind aided”. I should note, for the most part, Duffey’s batters were hitting into the wind today and Mejia’s had it at their back. I should however also note that Duffey's fourth inning started with a double and a single both of which were easy fly balls if not for the wind blowing them towards the foul line. Mejia, however, struck out six of the first eight batters he faced. He also hit 94 a few times in the later innings. It was a decent outing, and showed why people are starting to get excited to see what Mejia can do this year. Both starters sounded very satisfied with their outings and I don't think either one disqualified themselves from another start. It remains to be seen if the Twins will/can find innings for them both in one more spring training start. Personally, I'd love to see it. Feel free to give your initial reaction below. We’ll be back later tonight with a detailed breakdown of what I learned (and what is still confusing ) from watching Duffey’s start this morning. Click here to view the article

It should never come as a surprise when Twins news focuses on pitching, but even by that standard we have a lot. Today included a surprise demotion, the return of the Twins ace, a twist in the fifth starter competition and some news on Glen Perkins. Dig in.A Surprise Demotion The big news of the day was that right-handed reliever JT Chargois, who most people expected to make the 25-man roster prior to camp, was optioned to the minors. Mike Berardino has Twins’ manager Paul Molitor’s quotes on the move from before tonight’s game. I hate this move to the point where it is disheartening. I’ll make some acknowledgments first. First, the Opening Day roster is not all that important. Second, Chargois didn’t have a great camp. Third, it’s clear they still believe in him and expect him back soon. Fourth, I’m sure that some of the aspects of his game can be worked on in the minors, and he might even have more of a chance to work on them there than he would in a low-leverage role in the majors. I also have only seen him pitch once since I arrived (and it didn’t go well). Finally, I’ll acknowledge that the bullpen is an all-hands-on-deck situation; there isn’t enough talent to hide non-contributors for very long. But to change course on the reliever with the highest upside because of a middling spring training performance is either short-sighted or a flawed philosophy. The hamstrung bullpen is exactly why a team should place a player with Chargois’ upside in a low-leverage role. Sooner or later (with this group, sooner) there is going to be an injury or a rough spot for Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Pressly or Matt Belisle. And when that happens, the team is going to want someone ready to plug into those high-leverage roles. That player isn’t going to be Alex Wimmer or Justin Haley, at least not long-term. (I suppose it’s possible it could be Michael Tonkin, but we’ve been saying that for several years and right now it’s very possible he is outside looking in for a spot. Tonight he gave up a home run on his second pitch, which might not be a big deal if that wasn’t his biggest issue last year as a Twins reliever. He gave up 13 home runs in 71 innings, about 50% more than the average major league pitcher. It’s hard to trust a homer-prone reliever in the late innings of a game.) I think the team’s motivations are correct. They are rewarding pitchers who do well with a roster spot. They are evaluating based on results. They are responding to those players who look more “ready” based on that criterion. But I also think that plugging low upside players into low leverage roles is a sound strategy in the short-term and suicidal in the long-term. We’ve been down this path for two years under Molitor, and we know that sometime in June it all starts falling apart. Return of Santana The Twins tied the Orioles 5-5 as Ervin Santana returned to the mound and gave up one run over four innings. This morning we studied his pitching styleand a lot of our analysis held water. Santana does primarily rely on his fastball. His secondary pitch was his slider, and he relied on it versus right-handers (because it breaks away from them). And he used his changeup versus left-handers (because it move slightly away from them), most noticeably to strike out left-handed hitting Hyun Soo Kim looking to end a 10-pitch at-bat and the third inning. Tonight, however, in the third or fourth innings, Santana relied more on his offspeed slider and changeup than he usually did. He said it was mostly situational, but that he was also trying to get a better feel for his changeup. “It was working pretty good today,” he said after the game. One of the mysteries yesterday was that Pitch F/X listed about 1% of his pitches as a “cutter,” which he doesn’t throw. I don’t know if this is just because he fastball has a little more movement than most, or if his changeup is a little faster than most. Tonight he had a few changeups that were 87 or 88 mph, so perhaps that was what was being tracked. Finally, after watching him, I’m of the opinion that he has been successful because his fastball and his slider are both just very good pitches. What contact was made tonight was made on his fastball, but batters mostly have a very defensive reaction to both of those pitches. If he can rely on that changeup (he even used it a couple times versus right-handers tonight, despite it moving towards them), he could have another very good season. A Twist In The Fifth Starter Competition The fifth starter competition will take an unanticipated twist tomorrow. A few days ago I wrote about how innings are becoming scarce for players like Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia who are trying to win the fifth spot in the rotation. Tomorrow was their turn in the rotation, but Hector Santiago is back and starting vs the Orioles tomorrow night. So at 10 AM, Duffey and Mejia will be facing the Red Sox AAA and AA teams along with their battery mates John Ryan Murphy and Chris Giminez. Perkins And Twins Meet Finally, we also got some news on Glen Perkins. He met with the Twins and they talked about developing a plan for him that doesn’t include throwing in any games this spring. Exactly what that plan is - whether it means putting him on the 60-day DL or whether he will continue working through his injury in Minnesota or Fort Myers - is not yet determined. But when asked if the Twins and Perkins see eye-to-eye on things, CBO Derek Falvey said “That was the best part of the meeting the other day. We went into it asking how he felt. He said he feels good; he’s progressing. So we feel on the same page, with respect to the plan. I’m not concerned about that at all.” Click here to view the article

Ervin Santana was comparatively fantastic last year. His 3.38 ERA might not seem remarkable, until you realize that the rest of the Twins’ rotation’s combined ERA was 5.91. Blink. Blink. That is such a stunning number, I’ll repeat it: the combined ERA of the starting staff last year, not including Ervin Santana, was close to 6.So, it might make a little sense to study Ervin Santana, especially given that he should be returning to the Twins spring training rotation soon, if not today. The problem with that is that I’m no expert when it comes to pitching. I get all mixed up about which way a 2-seam fastball moves versus a 4-seam fastball, or a slider versus a sinker versus a cutter. So I’m going to rely heavily on FanGraphs to provide some basic data and be transparent about what I know and don’t know. Maybe you, dear reader, can fill in the blanks in the section below. I’m not ashamed to groupthink this stuff. Indeed, that’s the point of the site. Per Fan Graph’s high level Pitch F/X data on Santana, he relies a great deal on two pitches with a third thrown in occasionally. Last year, he threw: His fastball 53% of the time, which is a little less than he has in his career (56%).His slider 39% of the time, which is a little more than he has in his career (36%).His changeup 8% of the time, which is about what he’s done in his career, but a little less than the last two years.So over 90% of the time he’s relying on his fastball and his slider and only rarely going to his changeup. I found that interesting, because many starting pitchers are criticized for being “only two-pitch pitchers.” For instance, that’s the narrative on Tyler Duffey, who relies on a fastball (53% in 2016), a curveball (39%) and worked to mix in a changeup (7%). Those ratios, including the changeup, nearly match Santana’s. So let’s see what those pitches do. From FanGraph’s excellent Pitch F/X Game Charts view, here is the movement. Blue = Fastball Orange also = fastball (officially a 2-seam vs a 4-seam) Green = Changeup Black = Slider Download attachment: Santana movement chart.png The 0,0 mark is where the ball would end up if it was thrown without any spin. So the fastball (blue/orange) drifts a little left and stays a little higher (because it has some upspin) than it would than if it had no spin at all. The changeup does the same thing, which is handy when it looks like a fastball, but again, Santana doesn’t throw it very often. The slider moves to the right, maybe up a little, but not nearly as much as the fastball. You can see why it would be a pretty good complementary pitch to the fastball. Let’s go back to the fastball and changeup, which end up with about the same movement. Here is another chart from that FanGraph’s page that shows the movement horizontally, but the velocity is on the vertical axis. Download attachment: Santana velocity movement chart.png Yup, the changeup ends up in about the same movement, but seven miles per hour slower. Incidentally, the slider has about the same velocity, but moves the other direction from it. I can’t find any breakdown of when Santana likes to throw these pitches. I’d be particularly interested to see how often he throws each against left-handed hitters versus right-handed hitters. Just from the data, I suspect the changeup is used a lot more versus left-handed hitters, who had a slightly lower OPS against the right-handed Santana last year than right-handed hitters. Is any of this what makes Santana successful? My best guess is he just has a pretty good fastball and two pitches that vary enough to give hitters that split second of hesitation. But it’ll be more fun to watch his next outing and see if I can see what he’s trying to do. Click here to view the article

"Have we heard that Justin Haley isn't an option for the bullpen? He hasn't pitched well, but he is still the pitcher that the current front office believes can be a potential MLB starter, they may want to keep him around. Right or wrong, that's the nature of the Rule 5. " Seth, he's primarily who I'm thinking will join from the 5th starter candidates (though I think he's only nominally included in that list). I'll try to ask Molitor about bringing a swing man north like Haley.